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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Richard has Ambassador Hans serving both parties. Ambassador Hass, of course,

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Speaker 2: always in forever associated with his Consolin Foreign Relations and

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Speaker 2: writing in Foreign Affairs at magazine. He holds court with

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Speaker 2: Morning Joe on an often basis. Rattner's charts on Morning

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Speaker 2: Joe have been great. They've been like a font of wisdom.

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Speaker 2: He works at.

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Speaker 3: It, he works at it. They're also a font of

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Speaker 3: accurate information.

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Speaker 4: Man. The fact that it stands out is stand it depressing.

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Speaker 2: This is I can't say thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: attending today. I want to go to Lloyd Austin Foreign

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Speaker 2: Affairs Magazine. The price of principle is dwarfed by the

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Speaker 2: cost of capitulation in Ukraine. I guess we have a

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Speaker 2: new Secretary of Defense and the apparatus around it. Can

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Speaker 2: anybody that you see there, based on Trump loyalty work

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Speaker 2: at the level of a four star general.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's just take a step back. When you read

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Speaker 3: Secretary of Austin's article, he never quite defines what capitulation

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Speaker 3: in Ukraine is. So I was not overwhelmed with the piece.

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Speaker 3: Just capitulation in Ukrainian anything less than Ukraine regaining its

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Speaker 3: nineteen ninety one.

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Speaker 4: Borders is capitulation.

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Speaker 3: If that's the case, we are unavoidably capitulating because there's

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Speaker 3: zero chance Ukraine's going.

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Speaker 4: To be able to achieve that militarily.

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Speaker 3: So first of all, we got to define what's our

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Speaker 3: definition of success there, what's a reasonable outcome? And clearly

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Speaker 3: we're going to have to move to the negotiating table

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Speaker 3: because we can't get there simply on the battlefield.

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Speaker 5: Will Europe join us at the negotiation table?

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Speaker 2: How lonely is President Elect Trump in get out of Ukraine?

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Speaker 3: Well, again, I wouldn't necessarily say it's get out of Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: At negotiating table will be Ukraine and Russia. The question

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Speaker 3: is what is US and European policy in the background.

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Speaker 3: Are we prepared to continue to support Ukraine enough so

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Speaker 3: the Russians will see incentive to compromise. The Russians have

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Speaker 3: to feel the pain of this war. Unless they do,

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Speaker 3: they won't compromise.

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Speaker 1: So what has changed for Russia and Ukraine in the

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Speaker 1: last week with this election? Has anything materially changed?

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Speaker 4: That's a good question. I don't have the answer to it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you can see the direction of a lot

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Speaker 3: of the appointments on China, and we can talk about

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Speaker 3: that secondarily probably on the Middle East.

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Speaker 4: Less clear on Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Because if you look at what say Marco Rubio is

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Speaker 3: going to be Secretary of State or the new National

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Speaker 3: Security Advisor, they have been critical most recently armed support

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Speaker 3: for Ukraine, but they're not necessarily let's throw Ukraine under

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Speaker 3: the bus. There's a big gray area in between that.

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Speaker 3: So I understand why everybody's uneasy. But again, I think

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Speaker 3: a lot of it's going to depend upon what sort

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Speaker 3: of a negotiated outcome will President elect Trump support when

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Speaker 3: he's President Trump.

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Speaker 1: How much is in our hands, the US hands versus

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Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia in terms of making the next step

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Speaker 1: to maybe getting to a negotiation. Do we have any

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Speaker 1: real influence in pushing that forward.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, we need to be sufficiently supportive of Ukraine, so

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Speaker 3: Putin begins to question his assumption that times on his

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Speaker 3: side he can just wait out the United States on

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Speaker 3: the West. On the other hand, we have to be

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Speaker 3: sufficiently conditional in our support for Ukraine, so mister Zelenski

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Speaker 3: gets more prepared to compromise. So actually we play a

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Speaker 3: critical role, not so much at the table but in

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Speaker 3: setting the context for the table, all these.

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Speaker 2: People that he's selecting now, I'm going to say, based

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Speaker 2: just a generalization, one hundred percent have been on the outside.

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Speaker 5: You have experience in this. When you walk through.

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Speaker 2: The door of sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue, when you walk

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Speaker 2: through the door of the Pentagon, how do you change?

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Speaker 5: How does your message? How does your thinking change?

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Speaker 3: It reminds me a little bit of Mario Cuomos comment

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Speaker 3: that you campaign in poetry and you governed in prose.

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Speaker 3: When you walk inside the door, as you start governing

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Speaker 3: in prose at a level of detail, at a level

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Speaker 3: of implementation. When you work on the hell, you can

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Speaker 3: propose this or that resolution or legislation, it passes, and

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Speaker 3: then you're on to the next piece of legislation. The

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Speaker 3: big difference in the executive branch is you own it.

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Speaker 3: When I used to teach at the Kennedy School, we

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Speaker 3: used to say tom that ninety percent of life is implementation.

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Speaker 3: Ninety percent of life in the executive branch is implementation.

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Speaker 3: None of these people, for the most part, have experience

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Speaker 3: with implementing policies.

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Speaker 2: Speak to people that voted for President elect Trump but

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Speaker 2: are really not a fan of President elect Trump. It

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Speaker 2: was a negative vote versus the Democrats. Speak to those

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Speaker 2: people about how you perceive this will amend from January

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Speaker 2: to February to July of next year.

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Speaker 4: Not sure what you're asking me, Sorry, how that people?

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Speaker 2: The people, the people, the behavior, the enthusiasm that's real.

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Speaker 5: Now, how will they amend the summer of next year?

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Speaker 3: Well, again, it's going to be more sobering because what

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Speaker 3: they're going to find out, whether it's on say, immigration policy,

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Speaker 3: it's one thing to talk about mass deportations, it's something

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Speaker 3: else actually to bring it about. You've got to find people.

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Speaker 3: You've got to then presumably arrest people. You've got if

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Speaker 3: you want to deport people, you've got to get through

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Speaker 3: legal challenges. You then have to find host countries willing

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Speaker 3: to take them. You've got to deal with the physical

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Speaker 3: and economic disruptions of it. And every conversation we could

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Speaker 3: have again, you know what, Right now we have sort

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Speaker 3: of positions that have been staked out. Actually making them policies.

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Speaker 3: Translating into policies is going to be difficult. And then

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Speaker 3: also in other areas like, for example, you've talked a

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Speaker 3: lot here about tariffs and the like there's going to

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Speaker 3: be consequences to those, and one can't just be quote

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Speaker 3: unquote protaph. One's going to have to say, well, what

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Speaker 3: about the inflationary effects of that?

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Speaker 4: And so forth. So in every one of these areas.

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Speaker 3: We're going to have to deal with the knock on

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Speaker 3: effects of these articulated stances.

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Speaker 1: What do you make of just the cabinet picks that

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Speaker 1: we've seen this week from the President elect?

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Speaker 4: What's your takeaway to a mixed back?

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Speaker 3: I thought I was somewhat reassured by Senator Rubio and

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Speaker 3: the fact not quite a cabinet.

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Speaker 4: Position National Security Advisor mister waltch Yeah, he is.

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Speaker 3: He's worked in the executive branch, has working in the pentagons,

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Speaker 3: so he has the most space, he has the most.

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Speaker 4: Experience of anybody. Uh.

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Speaker 3: They're both internationalists, both very tough on China. Though exactly

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Speaker 3: what that translates into being a policy it is not clear.

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Speaker 4: But I basically felt that was fine.

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Speaker 3: Much less comfortable with the choice for intelligence and above

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Speaker 3: all for Secretary of Defense. Again, this is somebody without

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Speaker 3: any governing experience. Pentagons one of the biggest, if not

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Speaker 3: the biggest management job in the government, and to put

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Speaker 3: someone in that seat who doesn't have experience to me

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Speaker 3: is eyewordering.

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Speaker 5: We're going to come back with Richard Hawes.

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Speaker 2: I had to ask the journalist a question, would you

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Speaker 2: serve within this new administration?

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Speaker 3: The odds of me being asked Tom are about equal

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Speaker 3: to your being asked.

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Speaker 5: Richard hus speaking the truth. We all come back with

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Speaker 5: Ambassador Ah.

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Speaker 2: There's so much to talk About's response on YouTube for

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Speaker 2: our conversation with Ambassador at Richard has so identified with

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Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations. He has a new shingle

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Speaker 2: out at Center of You Partners. What are you doing

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Speaker 2: for Center of Your Partners?

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Speaker 3: Spending a lot of time talking to CEOs about the

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Speaker 3: world and how it affects their business plans, supply chains, markets,

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Speaker 3: name it and also try to increase our international business.

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Speaker 4: So I've been traveling around the world doing what I can.

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Speaker 2: There one thing I've learned doing this new project, Richard,

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Speaker 2: is the international nature.

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Speaker 5: PAULA, Good morning in San Diego, Chile.

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Speaker 2: Chile offers expats and people leaving America a vibrant and

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Speaker 2: diverse experience. You can benefit from the country's thriving job market,

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Speaker 2: affordable cost of living in rich cultural Hairiness. Richard as

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Speaker 2: on the people out there that want to leave America, Now,

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Speaker 2: what do you say to them.

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Speaker 3: I'm not big on leaving America. This country is still

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Speaker 3: the greatest experiment on earth. And if you have problems

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Speaker 3: or difficulties, then stay in the system and work blocks,

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Speaker 3: work against things you don't want to work in favor

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Speaker 3: of those things you want to say, There's so many

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Speaker 3: ways to make a difference in government, in the private sector,

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Speaker 3: in civil society. I guess don't understand this argument for leaving.

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Speaker 5: And what people in the punditry I see this. I

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Speaker 5: think we're four years out to twenty eight.

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Speaker 2: We have a congressional election where congress people start running

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Speaker 2: in one year for the election of twenty six, which

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Speaker 2: is basically tomorrow.

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Speaker 4: Look at that.

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Speaker 3: We've also got a mayor election in this city in

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Speaker 3: New York in exactly a year.

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Speaker 4: Got to think about that. We also have the two.

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Speaker 3: Hundred and fiftieth anniversary of this country coming up. That

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Speaker 3: could be a collective teaching about the value of being

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Speaker 3: a citizen in this American democracy of ours.

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Speaker 1: Richard, talk to us about the challenges of China here

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Speaker 1: for this new Trump administration, where do you think the

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Speaker 1: US is going as it relates to China these days.

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Speaker 3: What's clear to me is the direction in the sense

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Speaker 3: that we are going to become tougher, particularly on the

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Speaker 3: economic side. I think that's and by the way, that

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Speaker 3: had already happened under the Biden which continued the previous

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Speaker 3: Trump administration.

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Speaker 4: I think there the hours are pretty clear.

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Speaker 3: The biggest question I have is to what extent will

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Speaker 3: be prepared to resist China geopolitically if China does something,

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Speaker 3: for example, against the Philippines in the South China Sea,

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Speaker 3: which has the potential to be the first foreign policy

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Speaker 3: crisis for this administration. If China ultimately does puts greater

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Speaker 3: pressure on on Taiwan, what tools is this administration willing

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Speaker 3: to bring to bear? Would it just be economic tools

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Speaker 3: tariffs and sanctions, or would they be prepared to bring

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Speaker 3: military tools to bear.

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Speaker 4: I think that's a big, big question.

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Speaker 2: The heart of your book, The Bill of Obligations, The

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Speaker 2: Ten Habits of Good Citizens is our checks imbalances. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, Ambassador that there's going to be action by

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Speaker 2: the new administration, and they'll be legal pushback.

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Speaker 5: How will that unfold?

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Speaker 4: Well, Tommy raise a big question.

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Speaker 3: There, For the first time in modern memory, we've become

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Speaker 3: effectively a parliamentary system. You've got one party, indeed, one

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Speaker 3: individual with the lion's share of controlled the White House,

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Speaker 3: the Senate, the House, and Supreme Court that tilts that way.

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Speaker 3: So we no longer really have checks and balances to

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Speaker 3: a significant degree at the federal level. So the real

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Speaker 3: question is how does this president, how does this administration

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Speaker 3: comport itself? Does it respect any limits? Yes, they won

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Speaker 3: the election, but forty eight forty nine percent of America

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Speaker 3: voted against them. And the real question is does our

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Speaker 3: system work with this degree of concentration of power? And

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Speaker 3: what makes me a little bit uneasy tom is we're

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Speaker 3: beginning to see somehow what I call it extra exstitutional

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Speaker 3: institutional things. For example, this potential board of our military

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Speaker 3: people to look at the political orientation of the of

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Speaker 3: the generals, or what Elon Muskus and Vivekas are being

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Speaker 3: asked to do postage possibly also a trades our position.

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Speaker 3: What's interesting about all these things? You should care you're

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Speaker 3: giving people the authority, but they're not really accountable, and

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Speaker 3: that makes me uneasy.

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Speaker 5: Can that be legally opposed?

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Speaker 2: Can we can someone out there say I don't like

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Speaker 2: do efficiency. Whatever it is, I want to sue somebody

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Speaker 2: is I mean, we've never been here, right.

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Speaker 3: Right, And traditionally the courts are reluctant to enter into,

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Speaker 3: to step into what they consider to be political disputes,

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Speaker 3: So I would be surprised. My guess is the president

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Speaker 3: will have a lot of authority to create these positions

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Speaker 3: of authority potentially also through recess appointments, but beyond the cabinet,

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Speaker 3: beyond positions that have to be confirmed.

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Speaker 5: Elon Musk.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned Elon Musk. I think a lot of our

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Speaker 1: listeners and our viewers are wondering what role was he

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Speaker 1: going to really play in this government? Do you think

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Speaker 1: the saying he's been down in mar A Lago since

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Speaker 1: election day, it's.

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Speaker 3: Just when you think you've seen everything, you realize you

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Speaker 3: haven't seen everything.

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Speaker 4: And the idea that he's on.

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Speaker 3: This or that phone call and seems to have this

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Speaker 3: brief with with no clear borders to it. Again, I

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Speaker 3: think there's real questions about Elon must Yes, he's genius,

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Speaker 3: what he did, what he's done with space launch, with

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Speaker 3: Starlink and the rest is fantastic, But that I get

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Speaker 3: nervous when I see this degree of power in the

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Speaker 3: hands of an individual who's essentially beyond accountability. He's got

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Speaker 3: his own political agenda. We've seen it on X during

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Speaker 3: the campaign. He's got his own foreign policy agenda. So

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Speaker 3: he's clearly going to have a role. Presidents are allowed

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Speaker 3: to have kitchen cabinets. That's happened since time immemorial, but

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Speaker 3: usually it's limited. And the question is here, how operational

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Speaker 3: does he get? I think that's just a question mark

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Speaker 3: out there.

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Speaker 5: The heart of your work.

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Speaker 2: I think of Ambassador Harmance as well as we need

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Speaker 2: to be strong and structured and responsible at home before

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Speaker 2: we look to a proactive foreign policy. In this election,

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Speaker 2: I would suggest crime was front center off of immigration.

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Speaker 5: Migration.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't Nixon sixty eight or Nixon seventy two. But

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Speaker 2: how do we deal domestically with clearly a nation's worry

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Speaker 2: about crime.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, first of all, you're right, I think

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Speaker 3: the border had tremendous impact, along with inflation and so forth.

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Speaker 4: The first thing I say, Tom is not to have

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Speaker 4: less foreign policy.

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Speaker 3: Our problems at home are real, but they're not caused

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Speaker 3: about what we're doing or spending in the world as

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Speaker 3: a percentage of GDP, all of our defense is still

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Speaker 3: only roughly half what we did during the Cold War.

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Speaker 4: Look on crime, there's no.

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Speaker 3: One thing, but I would basically say it's where the

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Speaker 3: Democrats got it so wrong with defund the police. We

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Speaker 3: ought to fund the police, We ought to train the police,

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Speaker 3: we ought to expand the police and make them more professional.

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Speaker 3: And yes they've got to be accountable. But we need

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Speaker 3: more police, so we need better police.

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Speaker 2: This just across a headline in the Bloomberg the US

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Speaker 2: Ambassador to Kenya, Meg Whitman, says, she tenders her regulation.

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Speaker 2: What will become of her resignation? Tenders her resignation is

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Speaker 2: Ambassador to Kenya. What will become of a conventional state department?

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Speaker 3: Well, again, Marco Rubio is not a revolutionary. On the

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Speaker 3: other end, he inherits a much weakened state department. The

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Speaker 3: best in the brightest no longer are joining the foreign service.

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Speaker 3: State department has lost enormous influence to the National Security Council,

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Speaker 3: which has grown topsy turvy over the last few administrations.

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Speaker 4: So Marco Rubio is one of his big challenges.

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Speaker 3: In addition to the world addition to wars in the

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Speaker 3: Middle East and war in Europe and the challenge of China.

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Speaker 3: Marco Rubio is going to look inside this building and

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Speaker 3: he's going to say, oh my god, I do not

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Speaker 3: have the horses I need, and that's going to be

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Speaker 3: a real problem for what you can to hold them back.

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Speaker 1: Migration in reality, what should be the policy here for

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Speaker 1: migration in this country?

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Speaker 3: We want to have I think a large amount of

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Speaker 3: legal immigration. It's been the great strength of America, over

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Speaker 3: a million people of the year. We ought to look

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Speaker 3: though at the criteria. I think there's too much family unification,

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Speaker 3: not enough getting the people in who bring the most

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Speaker 3: talent and skills. I want well over a million people

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Speaker 3: a year. Helps the economy, helps us demographically. We've got

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Speaker 3: to fix the asylum system. The idea that someone comes

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Speaker 3: in here says I'm coming here for asylum, we can

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Speaker 3: hear their case six or seven years is crazy.

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Speaker 4: I think basically we're going to have to.

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Speaker 3: Reintroduce some version of remain in Mexico or remain outside

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Speaker 3: the United States while you press your asylum case. But

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Speaker 3: basically immigration is going to take a combination of a good.

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Speaker 4: Legal program but tougher border. And we've got to deal

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Speaker 4: with those.

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Speaker 3: We got to create the capacity to vet the people

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Speaker 3: who want to come here.

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Speaker 5: One final question, what is the tone?

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Speaker 2: The number one question from chief executive officers when you

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Speaker 2: speak at Center View Partners.

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Speaker 3: I think the biggest question right now is about China.

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Speaker 3: So many of them are one way or not dependent

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Speaker 3: on investment in China, China influenced supply chains. What, particularly

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Speaker 3: those in the technology space time, they want to know

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Speaker 3: is what is the political environment they're going to be

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Speaker 3: operating in, whether it's regulation, tariffs, sanctions. Also very concerned

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Speaker 3: about what about geopolitics and how might that affect the

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Speaker 3: US China relationship. But I think for a lot of

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Speaker 3: Americans that's issue number one. I would say for a

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Speaker 3: lot issue number two might be Mexico, and that's where

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Speaker 3: working out a relationship with the new leadership of Mexico.

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Speaker 3: Can we figure out something where we can manage our

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Speaker 3: border in a way that doesn't cause a massive trade crisis.

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Speaker 3: At the same time, with Mexico.

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Speaker 2: You can't say enough about the Bill of Obligations, the

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Speaker 2: Ten Habits of Good Citizens, many other efforts, including the

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Speaker 2: World which was my book of the Summer I believe

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Speaker 2: years ago Richard has, thank you so much. With Centerview

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Speaker 2: Partners and of course the former president, he's he's very emeritus, President, emeritus,

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Speaker 2: Absolute consol.

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Speaker 4: One day you'll step down from the show and YouTube.

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Speaker 5: John says, I'm emeritus every day.

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Speaker 4: Jeh.

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Speaker 5: Thank you John, thank you for that as well. Richard has,

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Speaker 5: thank you so much.