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Speaker 1: The volume Callin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel Sports Book.

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Speaker 1: sent you. Please use the promo code Collins c O

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Speaker 1: L I N FanDuel sports Book App. Sign up. Hi, everybody,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to the Friday Morning Podcast. Before we get

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Speaker 1: to Chad Milman, Sharper square fake question's real answers. I

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Speaker 1: got things I want to talk about and don't want

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Speaker 1: to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, what's

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Speaker 1: the most surprising thing about the urban Meyer firing how

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Speaker 1: the media is treating it? Listen, Yes, urban Meyer is

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Speaker 1: going to get a television job again, and yes Urban

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Speaker 1: Meyer could get a college football job by next year.

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Speaker 1: Let's not be naive. Listen, whether you like him or not,

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Speaker 1: there's three separate industries here. College football. He's a plus

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Speaker 1: TV analyst, he's a NFL. He's an f in two

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Speaker 1: of the three. They take him back in a second, Folks,

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Speaker 1: don't get too righteous. Do you remember how bad the

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Speaker 1: Nick Saban Miami situation was? In the end, Dante Culpepper

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Speaker 1: and Zach Thomas had to be held back by security.

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Speaker 1: They threatened to get into fist fights with Nick Saban.

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Speaker 1: Brian Kelly had a student diet Notre Dame while filming

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Speaker 1: a practice Bobby Petrino, Rick Pattino. Yes, Urban Meyer was

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Speaker 1: an asshole to a kicker, but don't be naive the

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Speaker 1: Saban situation in Miami. There were multiple threats altercations aimed

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Speaker 1: toward Nick Saban. College football and pro football, two different businesses.

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Speaker 1: Urban Meyer and Bill Parcels are the great turnaround artists

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Speaker 1: in the history of their respective sports. Dear Colin, what

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Speaker 1: do you make of urban Meyer kicking a kicker? Well,

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Speaker 1: it did happen in August, and there were multiple witnesses

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Speaker 1: to it in August. I don't like it. I think

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Speaker 1: it's unfortunate. I think we all deserve better. But if

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Speaker 1: it was viewed as that serious, why did it only

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Speaker 1: come out at the end of urban Meyer's reign. Listen,

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Speaker 1: I'm not happy to report or say what I'm about

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Speaker 1: to say, but politics, money, winning people lose a little

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Speaker 1: of themselves. Do you know the number one coalition that

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Speaker 1: voted for Donald Trump Christian evangelicals. Trump had multiple marital affairs,

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Speaker 1: and yet the number one group of people in America

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Speaker 1: that supported Donald Trump were Christian evangelicals. Funny how we

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Speaker 1: all have flexible morals. Bobby Knight through chairs at referees once,

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Speaker 1: but a police officer during the Olympics in a garbage

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Speaker 1: can was a bully, made threats repeatedly, and once unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: joked about rape on national television. But he didn't lose

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Speaker 1: his job over any of those because Bobby Knight was winning.

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Speaker 1: Let's be perfectly honest here. If urban Meyer's record was

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Speaker 1: ten and three, would the kicking incident get him fired?

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Speaker 1: Do you remember how urban Meyer maintained his employment at

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Speaker 1: Ohio State during the unfortunate Zach Smith story. I'm sad

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Speaker 1: to report this, but money, politics and winning, and suddenly

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Speaker 1: lots of seemingly good people have flexible morality. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: I hear you talk about all these college coaches who

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Speaker 1: flamed out in the NFL. Why do you lump Jim

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Speaker 1: Harbaugh in with Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. He succeeded

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Yes, because he eventually, due to his

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Speaker 1: rigid personality, wore out his welcome. Yes, he got to

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Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. Yes, but his firing was actually more

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Speaker 1: about personality because he actually won. With Urban With Saban, yeah,

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Speaker 1: their personalities rubbed people the wrong way. They were also losing.

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Speaker 1: Harba went to a Super Bowl, went eight Nate in

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Speaker 1: his last year, and once the power of winning evaporated,

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Speaker 1: people couldn't stand him. So Harbaugh is very comparable to Saban,

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Speaker 1: and to Spurrier, and to Urban and to a lesser degree,

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Speaker 1: Chip Kelly. They come in with a college belief system,

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Speaker 1: they don't move off it, they get no buy in,

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Speaker 1: and eventually they wear people out. Dear Colin, do you

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Speaker 1: believe urban Meyer will go back into coaching? Good question. Well,

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Speaker 1: I talked to somebody very very close to urban Meyer today.

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Speaker 1: Urban told them he was sad and he made a

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Speaker 1: lot of mistakes, but he was done with coaching. Now,

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Speaker 1: Urban Meyer was warned by many of his friends not

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Speaker 1: to take the NFL job, but urban Meyer told my

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Speaker 1: friend who is very close to urban Meyer. Urban said,

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Speaker 1: I'm done with coaching. He knows he made mistakes, he

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Speaker 1: knows the fit was an ideal. My guess is urban Meyer,

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Speaker 1: as a former athlete, likes to golf, pretty active guy,

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Speaker 1: close to his family. My guess his urban Meyer goes

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Speaker 1: into broadcasting in the next twelve months. All right, Chad Milman,

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Speaker 1: Action Network CCO Chief Content Officer, R had a crappy week.

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Speaker 1: I've had a crappy year. I've said I had the

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Speaker 1: best college year in my life. I'm having a terrible

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Speaker 1: NFL year, probably around thirty five percent. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: start going. I'm gonna go with my strongest bets. Are

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Speaker 1: you ready to go? I love, by the way, my

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Speaker 1: two strongest bets last week, Bill's Brown's both lost ones.

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Speaker 1: I know they look I love them both. You're not

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Speaker 1: alone in having a hard year. Like people are going

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Speaker 1: to give you crap about it just because it's you,

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Speaker 1: But favorites are just winning at crazy percentages. And most

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Speaker 1: of the time people who do this on a day

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Speaker 1: to day basis, they win by betting ugly dogs, and

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Speaker 1: though that Bill's game and that Brown's game are perfect

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Speaker 1: examples of what happens when you feel like you're on

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Speaker 1: the right side, but you miss a forty one yard

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Speaker 1: field goal, a team misses an extra point, a team

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Speaker 1: goes for it and then doesn't make the two point

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Speaker 1: conversion but then does later in the game, or the

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Speaker 1: team fights back, they miss their third and two fade,

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Speaker 1: they have to kick a field goal, and then the

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Speaker 1: team scores a cover scoring touchdown in overtime. Those things

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Speaker 1: happen like over the long haul. If you continue to

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Speaker 1: bet the sides of that, you bet you're a long

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Speaker 1: term winner. I just want to say that, all right.

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Speaker 1: One of the games I like is Falcons plus nine

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Speaker 1: at the forty nine ers. So San Francisco is in

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Speaker 1: this space now where they're fighting for their life. Every

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Speaker 1: game has sort of a playoff field to it. Teams

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Speaker 1: don't and to play their great games. After a road

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Speaker 1: overtime game few extra hits. Atlanta is capable of moving

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Speaker 1: the ball nine points, believe it or not, Still in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one is a ton I do think this

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Speaker 1: Atlanta team is subtly getting better. San Francisco. If you

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Speaker 1: look at their games ahead of the schedule, you've got

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Speaker 1: some big rivalry games in Division. I'd take Atlanta plus

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Speaker 1: nine here Sharper square sharp over inflation. Okay, the Niners

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Speaker 1: playing great. Jimmy g thrown from the pocket Kyle Shanahan

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Speaker 1: talking about they made some mistakes playing Trey Lance, took

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Speaker 1: them out of the rhythm. One place sets up the

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Speaker 1: next play. Winning the way they did against a Bengals

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Speaker 1: team that had just beaten up on the Steelers. It's

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Speaker 1: why we liked the Niners last week. But this is

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Speaker 1: peak nine right now, right they are a team that

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Speaker 1: is that is ascending. I think the Falcons are not

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Speaker 1: a very good team, but the Niners are still not

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Speaker 1: a team that should be favored by nine in some places,

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Speaker 1: nine and a half points when most wise guys have

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Speaker 1: this at seven. The one thing that is a little

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Speaker 1: scary in the I mentioned the power ratings. Right the

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Speaker 1: wise guys have this game at seven, it's now up

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Speaker 1: to nine nine and a half in some places. There

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Speaker 1: has been very little resistance against the bookmakers moving the number,

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Speaker 1: meaning they moved it from seven to seven and a

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Speaker 1: half eight, eight and a half and it's been a

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Speaker 1: pretty steady rise. You haven't seen the wise guys come

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Speaker 1: in and take the Falcons in numbers big enough to

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Speaker 1: move the number back down. So it's not like, oh

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Speaker 1: my god, I'm in love with the Falcons. It's yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Falcons are the right side because the Niners are overvalued.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take this is a weird one. The Jaguars

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Speaker 1: minus four or hosting the Texans. There's a weird psychological truth.

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Speaker 1: When an unpopular coach is let go, players tend to

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Speaker 1: play over their head. In the following couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: Darren Bevill's a more likable guy, He'll take over. You know,

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Speaker 1: we know the Texans here. They want the number one

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Speaker 1: pick in this draft. They have no value to win.

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Speaker 1: It wouldn't be surprised if marginally dinged up players set

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Jaguars to pick up a win,

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Speaker 1: a more buoyant locker room, a happier locker room. Players

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Speaker 1: trying to prove a point sharper square. So it's sharp

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Speaker 1: only because of what you said. The challenge is I

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Speaker 1: would not I probably wouldn't better at this number. It

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Speaker 1: was sharper when it was four, which is what it

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Speaker 1: was when the news came out, and what it was

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week. At five, you're just sort of

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Speaker 1: losing the best of the number. It's kind it's a

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Speaker 1: dead number. It's not like it's a key nun when

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Speaker 1: we talk about three and four and seven and ten

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Speaker 1: games that mathematically land more often on those numbers. So

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Speaker 1: if you feel compelled because of everything you just said,

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Speaker 1: which is all accurate, it is one hundred percent true.

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Speaker 1: That is not a sort of emotional play that is

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Speaker 1: backed up by the math. You're taking a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a risk because you could have gotten this at

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Speaker 1: four and now you're getting it at five. I tend

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Speaker 1: to be very poor well betting football this year, but

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Speaker 1: when games are pick them one, my history is not great.

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Speaker 1: My gut is telling me Bronchos minus one and a

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Speaker 1: half hosting the Bengals is the side sharper square sharp,

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Speaker 1: in fact, so sharp that this line opened at one

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Speaker 1: and a half, it moved up to two. Now it's

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Speaker 1: at two and a half. I think the Bengals are

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Speaker 1: the Bronchos at the right side until it gets to three,

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Speaker 1: and then I think we've sort of found the peak

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Speaker 1: of the value. A short home favorite as a field goal.

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Speaker 1: You just want to be on the other side of that,

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Speaker 1: meeting the lower side of that. You know what's interesting

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Speaker 1: is that, like the Wise guys were on the Broncos

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Speaker 1: early in the week, the line did not budge. It

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Speaker 1: just sat at one and a half, which told you

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Speaker 1: the bookmakers were still very comfortable with the public coming

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Speaker 1: in on Cincy. When it finally did bump up. It's

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Speaker 1: because you got to close to seventy percent of the

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Speaker 1: money being seventy percent of the money largely coming in

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Speaker 1: from professional betters finally getting on Denver, but you still

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Speaker 1: got sixty three percent of tickets on Cincy. So when

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Speaker 1: I mentioned money on one side, tickets on the other side,

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Speaker 1: for ponderance of money usually means professionals on that side.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Washington plus four and a half at Philadelphia,

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Speaker 1: and the reason being this, Philadelphia, do it, don't do it.

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Speaker 1: Don't do it. Don't do it. You're tell me right now,

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Speaker 1: I don't do it. Don't do it. Washington. Washington has

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Speaker 1: eighteen players on the COVID list. I'll get rid of it.

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Speaker 1: I'll just I'll write it off. Yeah, walk away. If anything,

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Speaker 1: if anything. The line is now Eagles minus seven. The

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Speaker 1: Eagles were the sharp side at four and a half.

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Speaker 1: The wise guys love the Eagles at four and a

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Speaker 1: half because the rushing game is so freaking good. It's

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Speaker 1: one of the two best rushing games in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: You don't know what you're getting in the defensive line

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Speaker 1: for Washington. This game's at seven, and I still know

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Speaker 1: wise guys who are betting get at Eagles minus seven.

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Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna take the Ravens plus four. Hosting

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Speaker 1: green Bay. Green Bay is off a divisional rival, big game,

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Speaker 1: big TV game. Baltimore is top five in defense, top

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Speaker 1: five and third down defense, top five in red zone defense.

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Speaker 1: Green Bay settles for some field goals. Green Bay wins close.

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Speaker 1: I take the Ravens sharper square, sharp play. This is

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Speaker 1: the definition of professional betting. The bookmakers, they are begging

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Speaker 1: you to bet the Ravens. They know every bet is

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Speaker 1: going to flow in on Green Bay. Nine percent of

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Speaker 1: the bets right now are flowing in on Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: You don't know if Lamar Jackson is playing. The Ravens

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Speaker 1: are struggling, So you're betting two things. If here here,

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Speaker 1: If you're a sharp. Right. One, you're betting regression for

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Speaker 1: the Packers. They have been playing ed and out of

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Speaker 1: this world level against the spread. Even on Sunday Night.

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Speaker 1: Right they were twelve and a half point favorites. On

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Speaker 1: Sunday Night they were down ten nothing. When they were

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Speaker 1: down ten nothing, the live line on this game was

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Speaker 1: Packers minus three. I bet the Packers minus three. A

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Speaker 1: buddy of mine called me as it got close to halftime.

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Speaker 1: I think at that point the Packers maybe were down

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Speaker 1: twenty four to fourteen or something like that, and he's like,

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Speaker 1: I had the Packers minus twelve and a half in

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Speaker 1: my Survivor league in my pool this week. I don't

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Speaker 1: think I'm gonna win it. I'm like, guy, Packers are

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Speaker 1: going to win this game. Going away, I'm going to bed.

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Speaker 1: And the Packers did just that. They covered the twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half, They covered every live line. It was

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Speaker 1: no problem. So Number one, you're betting a little bit

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Speaker 1: of aggression against a very good defense too. You're betting

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Speaker 1: with Lamar Jackson will play, and that you're getting the

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Speaker 1: top of the market on the Ravens as home does,

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Speaker 1: because as soon as it's announced it is, the line's

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Speaker 1: going to come down. NFL season is approaching the final stretch.

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Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book has a little sutting different to offer

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Speaker 1: with Leonard Furnett scores a touchdown. How about that any

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Speaker 1: step to five three three four two Arizona. It's interesting

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Speaker 1: the line tells me to take the Colts minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half with the Patriots. That's what it tells

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Speaker 1: me to do. And so my gut feeling because outside

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Speaker 1: of this year, you know, I've hit about fifty five

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent of my games in pros. So I

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Speaker 1: would take the Colts minus two and a half because

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Speaker 1: the line's telling me to take that side. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it's sharper square, but could you explain which

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Speaker 1: side is sharp and why? So it's the Colts and

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Speaker 1: this line opened at minus one. It is the definition

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Speaker 1: of a pros Joe's game. So when I just talked

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Speaker 1: about the Broncos and the Bengals, I said money on

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Speaker 1: the Broncos, bets on the Bengals. Bets come in in

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Speaker 1: ten dollars increments. It's the squares who say, I'm putting

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Speaker 1: ten dollars on this time, and then another another square

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Speaker 1: comes in, I'm putting twenty dollars. So you don't get

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Speaker 1: money in bets equal to each other. And that's how

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Speaker 1: books break these things down by percentages. The money is

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Speaker 1: indicative of here's ten dimes. A dime is worth a

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. When betters are putting that money down, right,

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Speaker 1: that's the that's the vernacular. Nickel is five hundred dollars,

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Speaker 1: a dime is a thousand dollars. Here's ten dimes, here's

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Speaker 1: two nickels, here's whatever it is. A big money is

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Speaker 1: coming in on the Colts. Here the bets are coming

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Speaker 1: in on the Patriots. That's all you need to know

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Speaker 1: if you want to know the reasons why you've got

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Speaker 1: a dominant run team in the Colts number one in

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Speaker 1: yards per cary, number two in overall rushing yards. By

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Speaker 1: the way, the Eagles number one in yard in overall

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Speaker 1: rushing yards, number two in yards per carry. The Cults

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Speaker 1: are playing a middling to bottom third in the league

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Speaker 1: rush defense. The wise guys are looking at who the

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Speaker 1: Patriots have beaten and the circumstances in which they've won,

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Speaker 1: and they just don't respect it, and they feel like

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Speaker 1: it's their line is massively overinflated right now. So if

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Speaker 1: you were getting the Colts at less than a field goal,

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Speaker 1: you have to take them, all right, give me a

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Speaker 1: game or two that I've missed that you like in

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Speaker 1: the wise guys like all right. So we didn't talk

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Speaker 1: about the Steelers very much, and they're about one and

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Speaker 1: a half right now, one on a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 1: They are a team that a lot of wise guys

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Speaker 1: inho are betting to win outright. Typical Rara Mike Tomlin spot.

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Speaker 1: We've talked all the season long about how good he

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Speaker 1: is when he is as an underdog against a team

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Speaker 1: with a better record. That's this spot. And look at

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Speaker 1: the Titans like, they don't look good without Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 1: They are missing a j Brown. Julio Jones has been inconsistent.

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Speaker 1: They're really down to second third string players when it

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Speaker 1: comes to skill positions on the depth chart. Right. And

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Speaker 1: so they scored twenty against the Jags, a Jags team

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Speaker 1: that clearly was imploding and they were still in it

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Speaker 1: for most of the game. They scored thirteen against Houston

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Speaker 1: and loss. They scored thirteen against New England. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be very hard for this team to score another one.

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Speaker 1: Majority of the bets coming in and the Titans majority

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Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Steelers. One more

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Speaker 1: I'll give you. Can I interest you in Seattle plus

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Speaker 1: four and a half against the Rams? Yeah? No, I

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Speaker 1: I looked at that. And here's here's why. First of all,

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Speaker 1: this division's weird. McVay owns Cliff Kingsbury, Shanahan owns McVeagh.

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Speaker 1: Arizona when they were bad played Seattle close and San

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Speaker 1: Francisco close. This is a division that generally you take

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Speaker 1: the points and you're coming off a perfect game by

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Speaker 1: the Rams. I mean they literally played perfect football. Now

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Speaker 1: they've got all sorts of COVID destruction disruptions. Seattle's probably

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Speaker 1: the side, right. So this game on Tuesday was as

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Speaker 1: high as Rams ninus seven and it got Now it's

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Speaker 1: at four and a half. It's scary to do it

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Speaker 1: because you're not getting the best of the number, right.

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Speaker 1: So if this game lands on six and you bet

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Speaker 1: Seattle at four and a half, you're gonna be like,

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Speaker 1: oh man, I could have had Seattle at plus six.

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Speaker 1: I missed the best of the number of wider plus seven.

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Speaker 1: I missed the best the number of wider. Did I

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Speaker 1: do it? The truth is, most wise have this power

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Speaker 1: rated around three or three and a half, so you're

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Speaker 1: still getting a point and a half of value. And

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Speaker 1: in any sort of scenario, if I'm looking at this

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Speaker 1: without knowing that the best of the number was out there,

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Speaker 1: I'm betting the Seahawks at four and a half, no

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Speaker 1: questions asked. So the scary thing is knowing that you're

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Speaker 1: not getting the best of the number. You'll watch this

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Speaker 1: game they lose by six, and you're like, why don't

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Speaker 1: I not just follow my rules? But Seattle at plus

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Speaker 1: four and a half is the right side. By the way,

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Speaker 1: last week, favorites had a robust weekend, and I thought

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Speaker 1: about it after the weekend. I tend to be an

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Speaker 1: underdog better. Yeah, And I thought, did favorites win now?

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Speaker 1: Because there's a real separation have and have knots, and

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Speaker 1: some of the have knots Now you can't convince the

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Speaker 1: players they're in the playoffs. You don't get quite the

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Speaker 1: effort from bad teams. Do you worry about that at all?

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Speaker 1: That some of these underdogs now it's man overboard, not

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Speaker 1: at all, like, because it's the same thing every year,

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Speaker 1: and the favorites just happened to be winning at a

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Speaker 1: more accelerated rate this year than they have in years past,

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Speaker 1: and so like this just this year is an anomaly. Right.

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Speaker 1: You look at that Cleveland game, like the fact the

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Speaker 1: Browns didn't cover, they didn't score the entire second half.

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Speaker 1: I know, right like that was terrible. It was discussed

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Speaker 1: it's my worst beat of I said, it's my worst

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Speaker 1: beat of the year. I know, I was on the

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Speaker 1: right side. They were the favorites. They only covered by

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Speaker 1: the line ended up at two and a half. They

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Speaker 1: only covered by two. That was a heartbreaking beat. You

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Speaker 1: look at Dallas Washington. Dallas was dominating that game, Washington

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Speaker 1: didn't cover because of extra points. Right, by the way,

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Speaker 1: how do you feel about the Browns this week? Now

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Speaker 1: they're down to a third quarterback? Would you take the Raiders?

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Speaker 1: It's getting closer? I mean, the problem is that, like

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, all of a sudden, I think the Raiders

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Speaker 1: might be favored at this point, and so I probably

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Speaker 1: wouldn't because you've definitely missed. Yeah, right now, the Raiders

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Speaker 1: are favored by three and a half, So there's no

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Speaker 1: way I'm gonna take the Raiders for me. There's so

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Speaker 1: many COVID issues right now, Colin that it's interesting to

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Speaker 1: hear professional betters talk. Normally, they jump on numbers as

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Speaker 1: early as they can, like that's when they're going to

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Speaker 1: get the best value, and then it's things sort of

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Speaker 1: meander over the week. They look at different lines and

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Speaker 1: see where some other opportunities may come up. I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys who are just waiting until Saturday

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Speaker 1: and Sunday because there's so much COVID. They don't know

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen in any of these games, and

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Speaker 1: this game is a prime example of that. All right,

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Speaker 1: Chad Chad Milman, Chief Content Guru CCG at the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I just got promoted. See your buddy Dan. The volume