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Speaker 1: This is a lot of it's time to say your legs.

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Speaker 1: The girls prizing there. We will sit him tows the

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Speaker 1: Garner lock Up.

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Speaker 2: Wednesday, May thirty first, on The Just Baseball Show. It

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Speaker 2: is the mail Bag. I'm I'm arm Layton, I'm Peter Apple.

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Speaker 2: That's Arm Layton and the Just Baseball Show is brought

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Speaker 2: to you by bet MGM. It's a big day for

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Speaker 2: bet mgm because it is the last day in order

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Speaker 2: to use code JB fans wager ten dollars on any

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Speaker 2: MLB money line and receive one hundred dollars in bonus bets.

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Speaker 2: On this episode, we are going to be talking a

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Speaker 2: lot about some bet MGM lines that you may want

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Speaker 2: to sprinkle that ten dollars on because it is included

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Speaker 2: in one of the questions of the Mailbags. We want

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Speaker 2: to thank you guys all again for leaving those questions,

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Speaker 2: whether that be on our Instagram or on our Twitter on.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot of great questions. But what keeps

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Speaker 2: blowing my mind is it does feel like the season

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Speaker 2: just started. We if this was twenty twenty, we'd be

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Speaker 2: getting ready for the playoff hunt. Like we're almost sixty

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Speaker 2: games in. We're two months throughout the season. We're kind

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Speaker 2: of getting close to that All Star break trade deadline stuff,

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Speaker 2: so I almost need that Memorial Day is a barometer

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Speaker 2: for all right, where does your team stack up right now?

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Speaker 2: I feel like this is a pretty key point into

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Speaker 2: the MLB season.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the range where you can start accepting

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Speaker 1: the panic button. Like we've been in the early point

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Speaker 1: where we get all the hysterical questions from fans, which

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Speaker 1: is always great in terms of like is my team cooked?

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Speaker 1: Like no, even the padres like up to now, like

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Speaker 1: it's getting there. But yeah, I feel like now we're

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Speaker 1: about to hit that point where it's like, all right,

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Speaker 1: now you really got to start slamming the panic button

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Speaker 1: and looking at outside options. Also, I just wanted to

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Speaker 1: make a note. I think you accidentally said I'm arm

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Speaker 1: late and because you wish you were me, because the

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Speaker 1: Heat are going to the NBA Finals. For those that

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Speaker 1: are watching on YouTube, rock in my Heat shirt here.

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Speaker 1: I won't go too deep into basketball. I won't talk

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Speaker 1: about other sports, but I gotta just mention the Miami

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Speaker 1: Heat are going to the NBA Finals. You came over

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Speaker 1: and watched it with me. I told you I will

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Speaker 1: not watch it in the public setting. I refused. I

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Speaker 1: refuse to watch it with our residents. Boston fan Kobe

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Speaker 1: Olsen refused would be bad for our relationship, and I

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Speaker 1: should have because the Heat made quick work of the

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Speaker 1: Boston Celtics in Game seven on the road. So very

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Speaker 1: pumped about that. I don't even care what happens. Obviously

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Speaker 1: I want to win the finals, but like, I just

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Speaker 1: needed the Heat to not lose to the Celtics, and

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Speaker 1: seven again with a historic collapse. I feel great now.

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Speaker 1: It's a great day to talk baseball.

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Speaker 2: It's always fun to watch a game, especially in a

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Speaker 2: Game seven setting with a fan of a team who's

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Speaker 2: rooting for them, because I'm a Knicks fan and my

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Speaker 2: Knicks got bounced by your Miami Heat, so I'm sitting

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Speaker 2: there with no real rooting interests.

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Speaker 1: Like I'm a New.

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Speaker 2: York sports fan, so I prefer the Heat to win

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Speaker 2: because I just don't like the Celtics. But that's more

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Speaker 2: of my New York Knicks fandom. But I just wanted

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Speaker 2: to see you happy, and I thought the funniest part

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Speaker 2: of watching the game with you was when you were

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Speaker 2: sitting on the couch and the Heat have this twenty

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Speaker 2: point lead through you know, three and a half quarters,

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Speaker 2: we're going down the other fourth quarter. I'm like, are

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Speaker 2: we at least excited yet? Are we any sort of comfortable? Absolutely?

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Speaker 1: Not, not even one percent. I just wasn't miserable. That

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Speaker 1: was it. It just wasn't miserable. And so literally like

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Speaker 1: they took the starters out and put you know, Luke

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Speaker 1: Cornett in or whoever the hell, and then now it's like,

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Speaker 1: all right, we did this thing. So that was pretty cool.

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Speaker 2: That was our two minute segment on the NBA. But

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Speaker 2: of course, this is the Just Baseball Show and let's

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Speaker 2: get into the mail bag. It's funny though armed there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of questions of should I hit the

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Speaker 2: panic button on this team? Should I hit the panic

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Speaker 2: button on this team? Like where do you think we

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Speaker 2: go from here? And we decided not to include any

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Speaker 2: of those because I think we're gonna make it in

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Speaker 2: a full episode of like should we press the panic

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Speaker 2: button on this team? And more talk about that. I

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Speaker 2: think it didn't.

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Speaker 1: Still a week and a half, two weeks from the.

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Speaker 2: Exactly, like it's still a little bit early, Like it's

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Speaker 2: a good barometer to be like, all right, now, is

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Speaker 2: the time where in the next two weeks, if your

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Speaker 2: team isn't performing, then take a look. But that's when

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Speaker 2: we'll do it right after that time. But I wanted

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Speaker 2: to start the podcast talking about Francisco Alvarez, but luckily

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Speaker 2: one of the most asked questions for the mail bag

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Speaker 2: was about Francisco Ovarez. So we'll start. Is Francisco Alvarez

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Speaker 2: the truth? Asked by Andrew Glave on Instagram as.

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Speaker 1: Our prospect guy.

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Speaker 2: I remember, I think he was at number one at

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Speaker 2: some points, and you dropped him a little bit. You

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Speaker 2: never really dropped him much, but there was just a

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Speaker 2: couple of guys who leapfrogged him within that top ten.

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Speaker 2: It's it's so hard to rank these guys because you

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Speaker 2: never really have a problem with any of them. It's

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Speaker 2: just you base it on upside on floor and then

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Speaker 2: they all just kind of merged together. Like, what have

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Speaker 2: you seen so far from Francisco Alvarez that maybe it

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Speaker 2: didn't expect when you were ranking prospects or did you

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Speaker 2: expect this like breakdown kind of where he's been ranked

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Speaker 2: in his progression so far?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so, you know, I think we had him as

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Speaker 1: high as five early last year, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: when he got to triple there was some swing and

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Speaker 1: miss issues that you know, we're a little concerning, especially

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Speaker 1: with fastballs up in the zone. That was something that

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Speaker 1: I was really concerned about because we got to triple

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Speaker 1: A and and not concerned in the scheme of like

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Speaker 1: this will forever be something that kills him, but it

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Speaker 1: was something that's like, okay, let's give some pause here,

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Speaker 1: let's see, you know how the hitso translates because you

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Speaker 1: look at triple A, strikeout rit was way up and

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Speaker 1: the whift rates were pretty iffy, especially in the zone

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Speaker 1: gets up to the big leagues, and obviously if you

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Speaker 1: are if you're struggling with high fastballs and you're chasing

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Speaker 1: high fastballs, the big leagues isn't the place for you

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Speaker 1: because that is where there's more of them than anywhere else. Right,

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Speaker 1: you're going to see all of those high spin heaters

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Speaker 1: at the top of the zone, and Alvaaz kind of

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Speaker 1: got eaten up by those. What we've seen now over

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Speaker 1: the last handful of games, and specifically you pull like

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Speaker 1: a ten game sample, it's a small sample, but he's

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Speaker 1: got absolutely nuts. And I think the thing that's most

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Speaker 1: standing out to me is that Alvarez picked up on this.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure the Mets have been working on him with it,

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Speaker 1: and he's already made some changes that you know, have

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Speaker 1: have allowed him to not strike out as much, to

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Speaker 1: tap into this power and not expand the zone. You'll

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Speaker 1: get the chase rate on four seam fastballs in TRIPAA,

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Speaker 1: it was about thirty five percent. You look at this

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Speaker 1: like stint of fifteen games that he's had at the

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Speaker 1: big league level, it's well below twenty percent. It's actually

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Speaker 1: a thirteen percent, So he's almost cut his chase rate

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Speaker 1: on four sem fastballs by a third. When you do

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Speaker 1: that like that's a very tangible adjustment. There was never

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Speaker 1: a doubt about the power, There was never a doubt

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Speaker 1: about the ability to crush breaking balls. This was the

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Speaker 1: one wart in his approach and he's fixed it that quickly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's the truth. I'm excited to see, you know, if

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Speaker 1: the league adjusts to him again, how he adjusts back.

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Speaker 1: But this was the biggest achilles heel and he's already

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Speaker 1: fixing it. He's already answering it, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: a testament to him and the Mets working with him.

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Speaker 1: And given him the opportunity to work through it.

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Speaker 2: The Mets have to be so damn excited right now

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Speaker 2: because not even mentioning at Baty, not even mentioning Mark Fianos,

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Speaker 2: Francisco Alvarez is a twenty one year old catcher. He

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Speaker 2: could be a junior at LSU right now. Like that's

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Speaker 2: the reality of it. That's how incredible what he's doing,

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Speaker 2: because he's got a five fifty eight slugging percentage with

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Speaker 2: an eight eighty five OPS with eight home runs in

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Speaker 2: one hundred and four abs as a twenty one year

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Speaker 2: old like Anthony Volpi, who you know, they're often compared

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Speaker 2: because they're the big time rookies that are coming up

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Speaker 2: and you know the major areas like New York Anthony

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Speaker 2: Volbey for the Yankees, Francis Guavarez. Alvarez has been better

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Speaker 2: so far this season. I would say he's a catcher

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Speaker 2: and he's younger than Anthony Volpi. Now, long term, we

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Speaker 2: have no idea Anthony Volpe could be the next Derek

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Speaker 2: Jeter and Francis Gavarez could be the next Mike Piazza

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Speaker 2: or both of them flame out. Like I remember Gary

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Speaker 2: Sanchez came up and looked like the truth and then

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Speaker 2: now he's well, I think he's off the Mets. He

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Speaker 2: got resigned by what the padres padres or something like

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Speaker 2: that like that, that's what happens. And there's also rookies

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Speaker 2: who start out really slow and then hit another gear,

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Speaker 2: like I remember Adlee Rutchman started slow when he came

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Speaker 2: up initially with the Orioles. That slow streak lasted like

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Speaker 2: a month and then he took charge. But it's so

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Speaker 2: cool seeing a guy like Francisco Wavarez, who when he

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Speaker 2: had his short sint last year, you pointed to those

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Speaker 2: problems and just the results they weren't there at all,

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Speaker 2: And Mets fans are like, oh god, this twenty. But

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Speaker 2: he's twenty. Then this season gets off to a slightly

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Speaker 2: slow start. But if we just look at how he's

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Speaker 2: done in April compared to May in thirty six abs

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Speaker 2: in April four ninety four, ohps right, those same problems

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Speaker 2: were kind of there. He's slowly getting withjusted he's still

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Speaker 2: twenty one years old. In the month of May. This

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Speaker 2: has been one of baseball's best overall hitters, regardless of position,

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Speaker 2: best overall hitters hitting three h nine seven of his

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Speaker 2: home runs have come in the last sixty eight ABS

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Speaker 2: and he has a one thousand and eighty eight ops.

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Speaker 2: He's just been incredible, which is so huge for the Mets,

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Speaker 2: so huge.

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Speaker 1: And you have the tangible adjustment, which is a ten

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Speaker 1: percent cut in your chase rate overall and a monster

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Speaker 1: cut in you're chase rate against fastball. So you can

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Speaker 1: really see what's happening here, and that's exactly what he

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Speaker 1: needed to do. And to kind of tie into the

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Speaker 1: prospects rankings things. It's funny because like you have guys

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Speaker 1: that in the short term come out to great starts

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Speaker 1: and we're like, oh, should we have ranked this guy

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Speaker 1: ahead of that guy? We're ranking them as prospects for

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Speaker 1: the duration of their career. You know who's going to

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Speaker 1: have the highest war when they hang it up, And

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Speaker 1: so there's a lot of moving parts to that. And

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Speaker 1: the risk that was associated with Alvarez's profile was a

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Speaker 1: little bit concerning, but for him to have this learning

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Speaker 1: curve so quickly, I think kind of shows you that

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Speaker 1: maybe that risk should have been hedged a little bit

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Speaker 1: in the mind of evaluators, because this is a guy

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Speaker 1: that is smart, willing to work and just a grinder,

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Speaker 1: and the reason why. The last thing I'll say is

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Speaker 1: we gave when I was talking about Vulpi. Throughout this time,

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Speaker 1: I've given Volpi the benefit of the down and I

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Speaker 1: will continue to do so because I feel like his

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Speaker 1: job was harder than any other job of any other rookie,

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Speaker 1: which was be the youngest shortstop for the New York

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Speaker 1: Yankees since Derek Cheater. That is a very encompassing job versus,

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Speaker 1: you know, being a rookie shortstop like Matt McCain. Not

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Speaker 1: to take anything away from him, he's been spectacular playing

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Speaker 1: every day for the Cincinnati Reds with no expectations. A

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Speaker 1: little different Volpi. It's a lot more pressures that come

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Speaker 1: with it. Francisco Alvarez might be the first guy that

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Speaker 1: rivals Vulpi's level of responsibility, if not exceeds it, catch

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Speaker 1: Hall of Fame pitchers for a Mets team that is

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Speaker 1: in the most win now mode and also produce offensively.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't even have to produce that much offensively, and

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Speaker 1: people would still be happy if he was league average

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Speaker 1: and catching well, and he's been way better than that.

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Speaker 1: If he maintains this, he's been the most impressive rookie

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Speaker 1: in baseball. Obviously he needs to do it longer because

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Speaker 1: other guys have been, you know, enjoying the rookie season

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Speaker 1: a little bit more, which comes with more ebbs and flows.

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Speaker 1: But I think you got to look at Francisco Alvarez

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Speaker 1: and say, this is probably one of the most impressive

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Speaker 1: rookie campaigns so far, if not the most if he

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Speaker 1: continues to do it.

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Speaker 2: And I think you're right on the sense of it

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Speaker 2: is one of the most impressive rookie campaigns because if

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Speaker 2: you just look at the offensive numbers, he's up there.

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Speaker 2: But defensively, he's been really impressing me. Right, He's in

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Speaker 2: the eighty fourth percentile of framing metrics, so basically what

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Speaker 2: that means is he is one of the best overall

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Speaker 2: framers in Major League Baseball according to Baseball Savant. And

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Speaker 2: then you look at the arm right controlling the base

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Speaker 2: pass he's in the sixty seventh percentile of pop time.

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Speaker 2: So we know we as the gun. And I'm not

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Speaker 2: even looking right now at twenty one years old about

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Speaker 2: base stealing, like how many runners is he throwing out?

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Speaker 2: Like I just want to know that the arms there,

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Speaker 2: because it's going to continue to develop. It is the

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Speaker 2: framing's been there, and then of course you got a

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Speaker 2: max Eggs velocity in the ninetieth percentile because he has

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Speaker 2: hit a ball this season already one hundred and fourteen

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Speaker 2: miles an hour as a twenty one year old catcher.

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Speaker 2: It does not get more impressive than Francisco Alvarez this

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Speaker 2: month for.

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Speaker 1: The New York Mets.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned Matt McClain and the Reds are in an

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Speaker 2: interesting spot and which brings us to our next question.

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Speaker 2: When does Ellie day La Cruz get called up? Does

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Speaker 2: this have any effect on Jonathan India's status with the Reds?

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Speaker 2: Asked by Red shin For on Twitter. And I love

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Speaker 2: this question, not only because I get to hear you

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Speaker 2: just talk about my favorite prospect maybe ever, in Ellie

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Speaker 2: day La Cruz. And I don't say that lightly because

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Speaker 2: he just he commands eyes like it's just amazing to

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Speaker 2: watch this guy play baseball, and I want you to

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Speaker 2: get into it too. But another subset of this, another

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Speaker 2: storyline is Matt McLean has been unbelievable for the Cincinnati Reds.

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Speaker 2: Talking about a rookie like just because we're praising for

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Speaker 2: this go operas doesn't mean we're taking anything away from

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Speaker 2: Matt McClean, who has been better than Anthony Volpi in

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Speaker 2: a very short stint. That's why it's so hard to

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Speaker 2: speak in absolutes because it's so early with some of

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Speaker 2: these guys. But he has just hit the ground running.

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Speaker 2: Then of course you have Jonathan India, right, You have

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Speaker 2: a lot of other middle infielders in this farm system.

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Speaker 2: You know, noel Vie Marte is another guy, and they're

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Speaker 2: gonna keep bringing up Jose Brero like to play shortstops sometimes,

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Speaker 2: so they just have a logjam of middle infielders and

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Speaker 2: they're about to call up one of the best middle

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Speaker 2: infield prospects that we've seen in a long time. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: give us the timeline on Ellie right now, and just

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Speaker 2: just talk about how fast.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, dude, he's he probably would have been

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Speaker 1: up by now had he not been hurt to start

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Speaker 1: the year. And I think that's that's the interesting thing

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Speaker 1: is I see like every time I tweet an Ellie

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Speaker 1: de la Cruz highlight now it's it's, uh, what is

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Speaker 1: he gonna come up? What's he gonna come up? I

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Speaker 1: don't think the Reds are holding him down too long.

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Speaker 1: I think we're getting there. We're a couple weeks away.

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Speaker 1: But you remember, this guy got a late start to

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Speaker 1: the season because of an injury, then was slow out

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Speaker 1: of the gate and it was a little bit rough,

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Speaker 1: and then finally got his footing under him, and now

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Speaker 1: he's gone nuclear and he's been the best hitter in

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Speaker 1: minor league baseball. It's only been a couple weeks of this,

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Speaker 1: or like a month of this, so like, I want

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Speaker 1: to see him kind of just ride that high right

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Speaker 1: into the big leagues. I think he's pretty much about

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Speaker 1: to do that. I think a week or two when

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Speaker 1: we can easily see him up there. I'm very fascinated

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Speaker 1: to see what they're going to do. And I love

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Speaker 1: that they called up McLain first, and I talked about this.

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Speaker 1: I don't remember if he was on the call up

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Speaker 1: around here, but I wanted them to call up McLain

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Speaker 1: first one because he was playing out of this world

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Speaker 1: and I think we were the only ones who had

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Speaker 1: him on the top one hundred lists. But I wanted

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Speaker 1: to see him get an audition at shortstop before they

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Speaker 1: call up Ellie, because then McClain can kind of force

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Speaker 1: their hand to maybe give Ellie some looks at third,

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Speaker 1: or give Ellie some looks somewhere else, or let's say

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Speaker 1: McClain struggles, then you kind of know what you got there,

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Speaker 1: and you can put plug Ellie right into shortstop and

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Speaker 1: not think twice about it. All he's played a little

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Speaker 1: bit of third, it's predominantly been shortstop, because I think

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Speaker 1: that's what they're looking at him as long term. But

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Speaker 1: if they want to bring him up and play third,

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Speaker 1: he could do that. He's got one of the best

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Speaker 1: arms in the minor leagues. I think he'd be an

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Speaker 1: elite defender at third base. I think he could be

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Speaker 1: a decent to good defender at short elite defender at

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Speaker 1: third base, and that left side of the infield would

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Speaker 1: be unbelievable. So I'm very interested to see what they're

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Speaker 1: gonna do. McClain does come with versatility. I saw him

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Speaker 1: play third in the on the Cape. He hasn't played

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Speaker 1: third professionally at all, though, it's only been second and

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Speaker 1: short so I think that's why people bring up the

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Speaker 1: India question. But I don't think you have to just

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Speaker 1: trade India again. You could just put Elie de la

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Speaker 1: Cruz at third base and it would be just fine,

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Speaker 1: So I am gonna I'm very interested to see how

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Speaker 1: they handle it. I wouldn't trade India just to trade him, though,

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Speaker 1: And I'm curious where you stand on that, because there's

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Speaker 1: a few reasons why I feel that way. But you know,

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Speaker 1: this team's kind of building towards being decent in the

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Speaker 1: next couple of years, and I don't think trading India

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Speaker 1: is going to help you, and I do wonder what

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Speaker 1: kind of return he really commands. No, I totally agree

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Speaker 1: with you.

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Speaker 2: I'm just here thinking about what's going to be the

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Speaker 2: opening day infield for them. Because Jonathan Indy again is

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Speaker 2: twenty six years old. He's not this aging veteran that

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Speaker 2: you kind of want to move off of. Maybe that's

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Speaker 2: the Joey Vado, but Reds fans I know are never

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Speaker 2: going to want to move off Joe Vado, and for

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Speaker 2: good reason. I'm just thinking about, like you mentioned, playing

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Speaker 2: Ellie Daily Cruise at third. Like Spencer Steer is having

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Speaker 2: an incredible season two and he's been playing a lot

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Speaker 2: of third base, You maybe move him over to first.

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Speaker 2: You put Elliot at third and McLean at short and

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Speaker 2: then India at second. Maybe do you keep steer at third,

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Speaker 2: then maybe move India to an outfield spot or a

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Speaker 2: first base spot. What do you foresee the reds infield

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Speaker 2: looking like? Because I say twenty twenty four, but this

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Speaker 2: problem might be here, And I say problem in the

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Speaker 2: best way possible because you just have a bunch of

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Speaker 2: really good young players. So like, what do you think

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Speaker 2: when Ellie does get called up? Because they're not moving

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Speaker 2: mcclan off short, but they might because it's Ellie da

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Speaker 2: la Cruz.

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Speaker 1: That's like, what do they do?

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Speaker 2: I I don't even have an answer, Like I can

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Speaker 2: give you what I would want, but that doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: that's going to be the answer when Ellie gets called up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah I would. I would like to see Matt McClain

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Speaker 1: stick it short for now. Like it's just like, how

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Speaker 1: can you move him off with what he's doing right now? Can't?

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Speaker 1: I don't think you can. And and also it's like

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Speaker 1: you're not hurting Elie de la Cruz at all by

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Speaker 1: putting him at third. If anything, I think you're making

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Speaker 1: him better because I think he will be elite there.

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Speaker 2: Maybe put him on the mound like ninety six.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, just make him otani like I think you put

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Speaker 1: him at third. I think you put McClain at short.

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Speaker 1: You can listen on offers for India, but like, let's

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Speaker 1: be real that this outfield like kinda still is not

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Speaker 1: that great and they someone needed DH like India could

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Speaker 1: be that first base slash DH slash plug into second

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Speaker 1: base from time to time, slash whatever you could ext

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Speaker 1: with him in the outfield. I think you could experiment

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Speaker 1: with Spencer Steer a little bit in the outfield. I

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Speaker 1: just don't think that you should trade because you have

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Speaker 1: a bunch of young guys that look like they could

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Speaker 1: be everyday players. Like I think you've seen good things

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Speaker 1: from Steer and I think he's proving to be darneer

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Speaker 1: and every day big leaguer. I think you've seen good

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Speaker 1: things from McClain to believe that he can be an

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Speaker 1: every day big leaguer. But what if one of these

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Speaker 1: guys kind of like hits a wall and doesn't really

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Speaker 1: quite look like what you were hoping they would be,

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Speaker 1: And now you just traded a proven, above average big

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Speaker 1: league bat for what, Like, again, what are you getting

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Speaker 1: for Jonathan India? Because teams out there they have fangraphs

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Speaker 1: like we do, they have much better than Fangraphs and

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Speaker 1: they can just do a quick little search and see

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Speaker 1: Jonathan India home road splits and see that Jonathan India

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Speaker 1: away from Great American Ballpark is a two fifty two

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Speaker 1: hitter with an eighty one WRC plus. At Great American Ballpark,

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Speaker 1: he's a three point thirty four thirty three, five forty

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Speaker 1: six hitter. Like, is a team going to give up

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Speaker 1: that much for a guy that is significantly worse away

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Speaker 1: from one of the most hit or friendly ballparks in

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Speaker 1: the league and with defensive limitations. Maybe the Rockies would,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe some dumb team would. You can listen,

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Speaker 1: But realistically, I think the Reds are better off keeping

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Speaker 1: him and focusing on trying to be good in the

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Speaker 1: next couple of years. You mentioned Jolly Vado that money's

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Speaker 1: cleared off the books. They're clearing off several other guys.

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Speaker 1: They also did clear off some other guys and trades

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Speaker 1: in the past. I really feel like that might not

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Speaker 1: be the best move for them. I'd almost trade Tyler

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Speaker 1: Stevenson before that, and I think Stevenson could pick up

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Speaker 1: I think people would be surprised. I think even though

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Speaker 1: Stevenson has struggled. I think the return wouldn't be that

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Speaker 1: far off. I think Stevenson's more expendable than a John

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Speaker 1: India for them.

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Speaker 2: I could see what you're saying there in terms of

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Speaker 2: a bigger deal, but I think in terms of just

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Speaker 2: using the word expendable, it has to be Jonathan India

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Speaker 2: because like, who else are they going to put it?

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Speaker 1: Catcher?

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Speaker 2: But in terms of who's going to get you the

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Speaker 2: big returned to, maybe the best move for the Reds

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Speaker 2: instead of trading India wouldn't be do that. But I

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Speaker 2: think we could both agree if we use the word

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Speaker 2: expendable like they have so many like Christian and Carnascio

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Speaker 2: and strands coming up too, where do you put him?

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Speaker 1: Then you know what I'm saying.

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Speaker 2: I feel like in that case, India is more expendable.

432
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 2: But I almost feel like, don't trade any of them?

433
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 2: Like why trade any of them? I don't think they

434
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 2: need to because you mentioned the outfield like TJ. Friedl

435
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 2: Jake Frayley, Like, these guys are fun players and there

436
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 2: definitely can be difference makers in spots, But then when

437
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 2: you fill the outfield with the Jonathan India right, like

438
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: you move one of those guys out there, and maybe

439
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: Steer then goes out there. Then you look from top

440
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 2: to bottom like where's the hole in this Red's lineup?

441
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 2: Like they're a very exciting team. And then of course

442
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 2: Andrew Rabbit might come up later this year to add

443
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,880
Speaker 2: to those three horsemen with Lodolo, Ashcraft and Green. This

444
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 2: is a really exciting team. Arm really exciting.

445
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 1: Even this year. This year is exciting. They're like the

446
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 1: next one. You know, we pick every year like, oh,

447
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,719
Speaker 1: this is the team that's going to exceed the expectations

448
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 1: and be fun. If the Reds make a couple of

449
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 1: decent moves in free agency, I think they'll be that

450
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: team next year. The one thing with Stevenson is I

451
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 1: think it's really weird, Like the Reds kind of hate

452
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 1: him as a catcher, and I think he's been pretty rough.

453
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 1: We'd have to talk to our resident Red sky klais

454
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 1: notan about that. Twenty five games a catcher, twenty three

455
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: games at DH six at first, which is weird. I

456
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 1: if the offer is there for John India then that

457
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: you can't refuse, then sure, Like if you can somehow

458
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: get a big league arm for him, sure, But if

459
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,439
Speaker 1: you're gonna get another Edwin Arroyo, you know, or another

460
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: you know, another low level prospect like That's that doesn't

461
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: fit the timeline for me with this red because you

462
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: just listed all the all the the players that are

463
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,199
Speaker 1: coming up. There's more on the way, and I just

464
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 1: don't I don't totally see it. I'm really interested to

465
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 1: see what they do. And the last thing I'll say

466
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: is you mentioned the outfield. Frailey can't really hit lefties.

467
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: Fradle can't hit lefties. You can do some mixing and

468
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 1: matching here. You have a lot of versatility, you have

469
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: a lot of guys that you can move around. Let

470
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 1: that be a problem where you've got to try to

471
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: find that that's for guys come the start of the

472
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 1: season next year where it's like, okay, you know we

473
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: might have to you know, lefties on the mound. Now

474
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: you know we have our left our right handed heavy

475
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: lineup where that's where you stack the Indias of the

476
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 1: world with Steer and everybody else. And maybe there's some

477
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: days against lefty or against righty's where one of those

478
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 1: guys takes a seat, you know, and maybe that's how

479
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: they approach it. I'm really interested to see. But I

480
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: do feel like the Reds should be in a spot

481
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: here where they go in with that being a problem

482
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 1: before they just trade off and hope that Christian and

483
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 1: Carnassian Strand hits at the big league level, hope that

484
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: Elido Acruz hits the ground running, hope that these guys

485
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,360
Speaker 1: that they call up are going to be as good

486
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: as John India for the next year. So let's see

487
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 1: what Nikral does. This is going to be a very

488
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 1: definitive year in terms of showing us what the Reds

489
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: timeline is, because if they trade India for some lower

490
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 1: level I'm gonna say, oh, maybe they're not as serious

491
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: for next year. Maybe they're looking a couple of years

492
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: from now.

493
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 2: I think they're looking for this year. I excuse me.

494
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: I think they're looking for this year. And it brings

495
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 2: us into our next question. But just to wrap up

496
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 2: on the Tyler Stevenson point, the Reds have this weird

497
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,239
Speaker 2: fascination with Kurt Casally, right. They just like play them

498
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 2: all the time, like, I mean, he's got a four

499
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 2: to sixty'd ops but he's a good bitch framer. They

500
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 2: I think they love his defense back there, and deservedly

501
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: so he is a good defensive catcher and he's probably

502
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 2: very helpful for those young starting pitchers. And I don't

503
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 2: think Stevens is that great of a defender back there,

504
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 2: so I think they kind of hedge that where they're like,

505
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 2: we need Stevenson's bat in the lineup, But they probably

506
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 2: see the metrics between Casally and Stevenson. They're like, Casally

507
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 2: gives us a better chance to win behind the play,

508
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: but we need Stevenson's bat. But then like Casally just

509
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: gets out every sickle a b But whatever, he's a catcher,

510
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: so you know, the offense is just an added bonus.

511
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 2: But this brings us into our next question. People might

512
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 2: be surprised by some of our answers, but the next

513
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 2: question is if you had one hundred dollars to bet

514
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 2: on three teams to win their division who are currently

515
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 2: no higher than third place in their division, who would

516
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 2: those three teams be and how would you distribute the money?

517
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: So are them we have a budget of one hundred dollars,

518
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 2: We look at the six divisions, and we have the

519
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: bet MGM lines open in front of us, and our

520
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,199
Speaker 2: job is to distribute that one hundred dollars on teams

521
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 2: that are worth the value of winning the division right

522
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 2: because I think a perfect example is the National League

523
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 2: Central where we were speaking right now. So right now,

524
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:41,199
Speaker 2: the Cardinals are in last, but their odds are plus

525
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 2: one seventy. So basically the teams that we are able

526
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 2: to choose from are what's the NL Central?

527
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: Right now? I had to pull up.

528
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: So the Brewers are in first and the Pirates aren't second,

529
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 2: so we can't choose from those. The Reds are in third,

530
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: the Cubs are in fourth, and the Cardinals are in fifth.

531
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: And for this exercise, I'm going to make a pick

532
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 2: in this division, and honestly, based on the value, I'm

533
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: thinking about actually making it. The Cincinnati Reds to win

534
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: the National League Central are plus four thousand, Oh my god, exactly.

535
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 2: That is an implied probability of two point four percent.

536
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: You look at the rest of the division right the

537
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: trap line of the Cardinals. The Brewers have not taken

538
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 2: advantage of this division. The Cubs, outside of Marcus stroman

539
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: unbelievable performance against the Rays, have not started to string

540
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: together wins, and I doubt that they're going to be

541
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: very active at the deadline. And then you have the

542
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 2: pirates who're kind of in the same boat, but for

543
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: this exercise we can't put them in. And the pirates

544
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 2: are plus eleven hundred compared to the Reds of plus

545
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: four thousand. Someone's got to win this division. No, I

546
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 2: don't think so.

547
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 1: I don't know. Nobody wins the division.

548
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 2: Weirdly enough, I kind of agree with you at some points,

549
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 2: but I think about it like this, Ellie Day, La

550
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 2: Cruz is gonna come up. Matt McLean is just being excellent,

551
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 2: Jonathan India is still that guy. Spencer Steer has taken

552
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 2: the next step. Stevenson behind the plate. We talk about

553
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: the outfield. Nicko Lodolo has been hurt. Now Ashcroft has

554
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 2: been terrible, but he's going I still believe in him too.

555
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: Hunter Green has turned together some outings where you're like,

556
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 2: holy shit, is he the best pitcher on planet Earth?

557
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: Then some outings where you're like, yeah, you could probably

558
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:34,880
Speaker 2: spend some time in the Mount of Leagues, like it's

559
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 2: it's it's very you know, hit or miss. But then

560
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 2: I look at the bullpen, and the bullpen has been

561
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 2: an above average bullpen. Sometimes it's getting in the top

562
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: ten range. They have an elite closer. In Alexis Diaz.

563
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 2: They have guys like Buck Farmer. You can continue to

564
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 2: go through their bullpen and it's like you laugh, you're smiling.

565
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 1: The name Buck Farmer is always the name Buck Farmer.

566
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 2: But like, these guys are performing at a high level.

567
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 2: I look at the value based on the rest of

568
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: the division, Like the Reds have a better record than

569
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 2: the Cardinals do. The Cardinals are plus one seventy, so

570
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,640
Speaker 2: one hundred dollars would get you one hundred and seventy.

571
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 2: If you put one hundred dollars on the Reds, you

572
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 2: net four thousand. Like that value is just way off.

573
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: Nobody's looking at the Reds. That's gonna be my first

574
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: team in this exercise. And I'm starting to talk myself

575
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 2: into it, like, no, this is not a unit bet

576
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 2: but zero point one units point two.

577
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: Like a sid This would be also of your one

578
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. This would be like let's say we have

579
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars to use here, this would be like

580
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 1: ten of it.

581
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 2: It might be more. Considering the exercise so serious.

582
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: This is the to me, and again I'm not knocking it.

583
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: I think value wise, it is actually a good pick.

584
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: This is the only way I can play in my

585
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: head of this somehow working. And this is I think

586
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: greater than a two percent possibility. Elio Lacruz has to

587
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: come up and instantly become one of the more impactful

588
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: players in baseball. That's very possible. I think that's very possible.

589
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: This guy's already broken stack cast records and has game

590
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: changing speed and you're putting that freak, dude. This guy

591
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: hits home runs to the opposite field where he thinks

592
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: he popped out and it goes four hundred and thirty feet.

593
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: Imagine that's fuck in Great America. Imagine that motherfucker in

594
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: Great American Ballpark. That guy's gonna he's gonna hit one

595
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 1: off of his literal fist rake a finger, and it's

596
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: gonna go over the wall.

597
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: Like that's how powerful he is. He might lead the league.

598
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 2: He might lead the league in broken bat homers. I

599
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: know you love a good broken.

600
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: I love broken bat homers. Those those are lit so

601
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: that that's the one thing you're looking at a team

602
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: that he could come up and struggle. That's very possible too.

603
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: I know you know that too. But there's a world

604
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: where he comes up and they just added an All star,

605
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: So like, okay, there you go. You just add an

606
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: all star. Andrew Abbott, I think he would come up

607
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: and give you a low fours maybe mid foors. That's

608
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: way better than whatever they're getting from their four and

609
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: five right now.

610
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 2: In terms of r I don't know, don't sleep on

611
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: Ben Lively.

612
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: Ben Lively's been great, like eighteen k three walks yeah

613
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: right yeah, but like realistically, that's better than what they're

614
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: getting from one of the five spots. And then you

615
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: talked about the bullpen and Alexis Toia is like he's

616
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: not going anywhere, and Christian and Carnassio and Strand might

617
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: get called up and give them a jolt. And then

618
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: they've they've had a lineup that's been raking lately. I

619
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: think they had like forty something hits over the weekend.

620
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: It's it's possible. I think you really need the rest

621
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: of the division to continue to suck, and by all indications,

622
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 1: the rest of the division might continue to suck. We

623
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: called the Brewers contenders because we had to, but like

624
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: they they're the most unseerious, serious team I think in baseball.

625
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more.

626
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: I hate watching them, and they can't hit a lefty

627
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: to save their life, like every time they face the lefty,

628
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 2: it's just an auto loss. And they got to win

629
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: most of those games against writings and they don't, and

630
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 2: like their offense only performs at home. So I look

631
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: at this team, I'm like, well, Corbyn Burns has not

632
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: looked like that same guy, Freddy Pearltz has still stud

633
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: but Brandon Woodroff is still on the shelf. Like I

634
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: just look at their offense, I'm like, yeah, I like

635
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: some of the rookies and I think they'll be good

636
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 2: long But like when I look at them or team today,

637
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 2: Willia damish Is went on the aisle for that concussion

638
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 2: and what a horrible moment. I mean, just gets hit

639
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 2: with that line drive when he's sitting the dugout on

640
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: a foul ball, terrifying.

641
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: Hopefully he's okay.

642
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: But I look at the rest of the lineup like

643
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 2: they just dfaed Luke Floyd, who is hitting like fifth

644
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 2: for them for a while. I don't believe in them.

645
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 2: I don't believe in the Cubs. I think the Pirates

646
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 2: like would be in the same conversation with the Reds,

647
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: like I don't want to be disrespectful to the Pirates,

648
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 2: but they don't have this young influx, Like what they're

649
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: doing is relying on a lot of older veterans right now,

650
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: Like let's see how they do in August. The rookies,

651
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: like they could hit that rookie wall, but they're at

652
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 2: least going to have that energy, right, And then I

653
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: look at the Cardinals and it's like, yes, the Cardinals

654
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 2: should be in this discussion. They'll probably win the division

655
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: because they're the Cardinals, but they have real issues and

656
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: the value value isn't even close to what it is

657
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 2: for the Reds. So I know it's probably sounds crazy

658
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 2: listening to it, but I hope I put it in

659
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: better perspective if when I look at the Cardinals, where

660
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 2: it's like, all right, implied, probably that's like forty seven

661
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: percent Reds are two percent Reds up a better record

662
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: than them, Like it's not that crazy to think that

663
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: there are not that many holes on the Reds, where

664
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 2: in previous years would be like, oh my god, from

665
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 2: five to nine, it can't hit.

666
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 1: Not this time around. The one thing is the Pirates

667
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: would get O'Neill, but like O'Neill, Yeah, I don't think

668
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: he he's no Elie Daily Cruz. I don't think so. No,

669
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: I don't do this. So that's that's our pick there,

670
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: I'm you're rolling with it, you like I'm rolling with

671
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: ten dollars ten twenty. We have to spend one hundred bucks,

672
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: all right, twenty on them. Yes, they can't be in

673
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: the top three only because I love the Reds prospects.

674
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: You're lucky. You picked the team with all the prospects

675
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: I love. So I'm in. I'm going to go on

676
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 1: this sinking boat with you. Go Red We might be

677
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: a donation, but screw it. It's worth the value. If

678
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: it hits, we're goaded. We're goaded. If it doesn't hit,

679
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 1: nobody will rubber. We'll just pretend it never happened. Yeah, okay,

680
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: what has to third placer below? I'm gonna give you

681
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: a couple of teams. I want you to give me

682
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 1: the odds. Okay, what are the Guardians odds looking like

683
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: these days?

684
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: Plus seventy five? Like it's still there. That was going

685
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: to be one of my picks too, but I.

686
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 1: Figured it would be what are the Mets ods look

687
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: like in the NL East? I mean the Mets ain't

688
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: fucking win this division over the What are the odds

689
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: plus six fifty? Okay? And I got one more for

690
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: you makes me want to throw up. But what are

691
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: the San Diego Padres odds? Yeah?

692
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: The Padres odds are plus nine hundred okay, ah, but the.

693
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: Dodgers are thirty three and twenty two.

694
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, like they ain't losing that division. Like that's the problem.

695
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 2: I looked at these teams too, and it was like, yes,

696
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 2: there's value there, but I cannot imagine the Braves losing, Like,

697
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 2: what are they going to go.

698
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: On a cold streak? We have to sprinkle. We did

699
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 1: lose against the A's though, so maybe twenty on the

700
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: Cardinals as well. I'm I think we should look even

701
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: though I don't, I think we should look at the

702
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 1: American League East, So the Yankees. You weren't going to

703
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: say it, I'll say it. Yeah, Look, I love the

704
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 1: Rays and again we're looking at value here. Walker brought

705
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: up an excellent point, and he also wanted to make

706
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:27,279
Speaker 1: it very clear on the podcast that he was not

707
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: invalidating what the Rays are doing, and he thinks that

708
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,439
Speaker 1: it's very incredible what they're doing. And usually every year

709
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 1: when teams are going nuts. They have guys that are

710
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: overperforming their career numbers, but almost every single guy in

711
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 1: their lineup is overperforming his career ops by about two

712
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: hundred points. That doesn't mean that the Rays aren't really good.

713
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,919
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that the race can't win the World Series.

714
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that the Rays aren't one of the

715
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: best teams, if not the best team in baseball. But

716
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 1: it does mean that they may not sustain thirty nine

717
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: and seventeen. And if we know anything about the Yankees,

718
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: when they get hot, man, they get fucking hot. We

719
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: saw it last year. They were on pay to be

720
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 1: the best team in the world, and then they weren't.

721
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 1: But they're doing this right now. Banged up, you know,

722
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: very banged up ro Don it's touch and feel. We'll

723
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:12,239
Speaker 1: see when he comes back Severalino finally back, looks fantastic.

724
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 1: Judge is locked in. Let's hope Bater's not out because

725
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: he's looked fantastic since he's come back. I think he's

726
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: been a huge X factor. We're just talking about it

727
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 1: off the air, like he's been a huge X factor

728
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,919
Speaker 1: and kind of them hitting this next gear since he's

729
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: you know, since he's come back, and I feel like

730
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: they've trimmed some of the fat that we were looking

731
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 1: at in the lineup when you and I went to

732
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: the games, were like, why do we even come to

733
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 1: this game? Why am I watching Willie Calhoun and Francis

734
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 1: Cordero and whatever. Like, they've trimmed a lot of that fat.

735
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 1: They're only gonna get stronger, and the Rays, like, I

736
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 1: don't know if that's the case. Like the glass now

737
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:46,879
Speaker 1: is kind of that ace in the hole, but other

738
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: than that, like, are they gonna get that much stronger

739
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 1: anywhere else? Maybe if they make a move or two.

740
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: What's the value of.

741
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,399
Speaker 2: The Yankees plus five twenty five?

742
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 1: Yeah? I like that one.

743
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,319
Speaker 2: I like that one. So what I was going to

744
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: bring you was the Reds for twenty bucks and then

745
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 2: forty both on the Guardians at plus three seventy five

746
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 2: and the Yankees at plus five twenty five.

747
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

748
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: So when I look at the Guardians, I look at

749
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 2: a team that has been without Tristan McKenzie now for

750
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 2: a while and their offense just has been putrid. But

751
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: I look at their team and I say, all right,

752
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 2: at this point, how can you not buy Tanner Bybee

753
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 2: how can you not buy Logan Allen after seven shutout.

754
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 1: Allen Royals phenomenal, phenomenal.

755
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 2: So those two, then you have Bieber, then you have Quantrell,

756
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: then you have McKenzie and Gavin Williams is going to

757
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 2: come up soon.

758
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: Lookit, by the way, right now, if you graduate, you

759
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: know the guys that have debuted, of prospects who have

760
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: not debuted, it's hard to say that there's anybody better

761
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:54,760
Speaker 1: than Gavin Williams right now pitching prospects wise.

762
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 2: And I know this sounds crazy, and I don't know

763
00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 2: if it's going to happen, but I want to just

764
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: put it out there in case it does, being like

765
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 2: well Peter called it. But I'm not that I'm kind

766
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 2: of a pussy footing this prediction, you know, a pussy

767
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: foot again. But I do have a feeling that Shane

768
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 2: Bieber is going to get traded. And the reason being

769
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 2: is not because the Guardians are selling. They need real offense.

770
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: They need real offense. And what the Guardians do best

771
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 2: is that they turn pitchability guys into studs at the

772
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 2: major league level. That's what they did with Bibby, that's

773
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: what they're doing with Allan. They did that with Mackenzie,

774
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 2: they did that with Quantrill, and Bieber has been around

775
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: for a long time now. And Bieber's stuff has been

776
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,439
Speaker 2: on the decline now for a couple of years. He's

777
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 2: still I think he might have the best command in

778
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: the sport. It's rare that you'll ever see him miss

779
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 2: the ketcher's glove. So a contender is going to look

780
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 2: at him and be like, yeah, his stuff's falling down

781
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 2: a little bit, but he's still that guy. Like a

782
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 2: contender who really needs an ace or at least a

783
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: high end number two is going to pay top dollar

784
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 2: for guy like Shane Bieber. The Guardians reload with all

785
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 2: those prospects. They move off of Mike Sunino and Cam Gallagher,

786
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 2: who are about as good as you and I are

787
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 2: at the plate right now. Move in bow Naylor. The

788
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: offense starts to get rolling again. The pitching just keeps

789
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 2: being incredible. They trade Shane Bieber for a couple of

790
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 2: offensive pieces, maybe ready now guys, maybe minor leaguers, I

791
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 2: don't know, but they can trade Shane Bieber and still

792
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 2: really compete this year. I think the Guardians, while it's

793
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 2: been slow, it's not like the Twins have taken a

794
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 2: stranglehold this division ran off. The White Sox certainly have it,

795
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: and the Royals and Tigers. I just can't buy it.

796
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 2: So I look at the Guardians and I say, I

797
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 2: think they have a fifty to fifty shot right now.

798
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 2: So plus three seventy five. The reason I'm not betting

799
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 2: plus three seventy five is already have them as a feature.

800
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 2: I already bet them earlier in the season, so I'm

801
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: not like doubling down on it.

802
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 1: I'm just keeping my ticket.

803
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: But I still think there's a window, and I still

804
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: think that they can trade Shane Bieber in order to

805
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 2: get big time offensive piece. Is kind of similar to

806
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: Pablo Lopez for Luisa rise what the Twins did. But

807
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: if Pablo Lopez netted you Luisa Riaz, what could Shane

808
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: biebernett the Cleveland Guardians.

809
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's that's the really interesting thing. I'm

810
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: gonna be fascinated to see how they approach this deadline

811
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 1: for that exact reason, because he could be expendable. This

812
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: might be the peak of his value. But also you're

813
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 1: trying to win now, and like, can you take one

814
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,919
Speaker 1: step backward and forward at the same time or maybe

815
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: two forward by trading chain like that would be a

816
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 1: really interesting approach. So I'm excited to see how they

817
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 1: handle that. But to finish the exercise, so we're gonna go.

818
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 2: Forty on, forty on the Guardians and forty on the Yankees.

819
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 2: Let's just wrap up on why we think the Yankees

820
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 2: still because you mentioned the Rays and you kind of

821
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 2: just wrapped it up too.

822
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: But Aaron Judge is doing his thing again. Yeah, he

823
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 1: might just like hit sixty three this year.

824
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: He might Harrison Vader. Of course, he gets injured in

825
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 2: his last game. But I thought that win against the

826
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,479
Speaker 2: Mariners was so impressive. You're flying across the country without

827
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 2: an off day. You go into Seattle facing Bryce Miller,

828
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 2: who has been unhittable in his first couple of starts

829
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 2: for the Mariners, and they put up a ten spot.

830
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 2: It wasn't all on Bryce Miller, but they put up

831
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 2: a damn ten spot. When this team rolls, they are

832
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 2: tough to beat. They're going to get Carlos Rodon back,

833
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 2: and you know they'll be active at the deadline. You

834
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 2: know that Anthony Volpi is only going to improve. He's

835
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: not gonna get worse, Right, even if he stays the same, right,

836
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 2: I think DJ's gonna be better. Like Glaber has still

837
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 2: been solid, Rizzo has been a monster. You can see

838
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 2: it with the Yankees, where it's like, all right, this

839
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 2: is a really tough start to the season, but they

840
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 2: should start to roll here, and it's already happening. They

841
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:49,439
Speaker 2: have been one of, if not the best overall team

842
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: in the month of May, after a really sour April

843
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 2: where I was just like, all right, this is just

844
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 2: such shit.

845
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 1: I mean, what am I watching here?

846
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: Turned it around and you got to give him credit,

847
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 2: and they're not that far off yet. I think the

848
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 2: Blue Jays have some value too, but I have real

849
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 2: concerns about the Blue Jays. I think the Orioles have

850
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:08,919
Speaker 2: some good value, but I almost feel like you're buying

851
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 2: them at the peak of their powers. They could just continue,

852
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 2: and I do believe in the Orioles. I think they

853
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 2: most likely will be a playoff team. But I think

854
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 2: the Yankees have the best value currently because I do

855
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: think that they are the second, if not still the

856
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 2: best team in the American League East. When it's all

857
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 2: said and done, I think the Guardians and the Twins,

858
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 2: it's going to be a dog fight until the end.

859
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 2: I think the Reds are the long shot. I think

860
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 2: this is good.

861
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 1: I'm in. You sold me, I'm in, all right, talk

862
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: about being in a lot of you have joined are

863
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,879
Speaker 1: So Rare Fantasy Baseball League and we've had tons of.

864
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 2: Members come in. We're starting to roll. It's been an

865
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 2: absolute blast. We got some people at the top of

866
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: the leader board. We're still playing Fantasy Baseball on sowere.

867
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 2: Remember the link is in the episode description download for

868
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 2: free arm give the people an update on how our

869
00:41:56,080 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 2: league's gone.

870
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you can draft your team for free. And

871
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 1: if you miss this past competence, we got another one

872
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: coming up. I think it's in the next couple days.

873
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: I see some people are kind of split between, and

874
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:07,720
Speaker 1: I'm able to track it both, so it's fine between.

875
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: Like the common all Star in the Miners competition, I

876
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: would try to all go in the miners competition to

877
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: keep it easier. But in first place right now, and

878
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 1: remember you'll win JB merch for coming in first, along

879
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: with potentially other prizes. And if you enter the limited competition,

880
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: which you have to have limited cards for, you can

881
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 1: win an MLB TV subscription from So Rare but Dustin

882
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: Underscore Bars b A r RS is in first place.

883
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 1: Right now, We've still got two more days left. There

884
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 1: would be one more I think after this episode is out.

885
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 1: In this competition, bold strategy of drafting Aaron Judge is

886
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: paid off. He has forty eight points already.

887
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 2: Daniel Bars, So is he a Daniel Bard and a

888
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 2: music fane or is he just Daniel Andy spits bars?

889
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 2: It's Dustin Bars. Dustin is Dustin just spits.

890
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 1: Bars, It spits ball. I don't know, maybe that's his

891
00:42:58,520 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: last name.

892
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 2: I wish it was a and You'll Bard kind of joke,

893
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 2: but it doesn't work because it's Dustin, damn it.

894
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: Dustin Sonny Gray, Ryan Presley, Matt Olsen, Taylor Wallas has

895
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 1: given him zero and he's still in first. Jordan Alvaz

896
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: has given him four and he's still in first, and

897
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: he's sitting on George Kirby who has not pitched yet.

898
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: So Dustin Bars looks like you could hold onto the lead.

899
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: But guess what our same guy who was right around

900
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 1: the top last week, even though it didn't fully count

901
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: as the competition, it was like our week zero pinstriped

902
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:33,720
Speaker 1: Gator right checking in right, in the top three again,

903
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:37,240
Speaker 1: which is nuts, pinstripe Gator, whoever you are out there,

904
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: you're a machine. He's got Aaron Judge forty eight. What's

905
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 1: interesting is this little like loophole that Anthony Discalfani counts

906
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: as a reliever. But he's been making Has he been

907
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: mostly relieving now? Has he been mostly coming out of

908
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: the pen? No?

909
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 2: No, he's he's a five inning, six inning guy for

910
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 2: the Giants. He's been kind of weirdly good. I mean,

911
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: his perferle say he should retire, but like he's got

912
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 2: three to five right.

913
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: For some reason, I think he counted as a reliever here,

914
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: and so he found a loophole plug Disco in there,

915
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: got twenty one from Disco. What a genius over here.

916
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: And he still got Framberg to make a start. So

917
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: those are two of the top dogs right now in

918
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 1: our competition. Again, winner, we'll get JB. Merch. We're about

919
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 1: to drop some new stuff, so excited to send that

920
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: out to y'all, and then some other stuff that you

921
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 1: might be able to win from. So rare as well. Also,

922
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: just join the league to compete against us, and you know,

923
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: see see how you do in relation to us, right,

924
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: now you guys are killing us, so we'll see how

925
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 1: it goes. But yeah, reminder that the link is in

926
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: the podcast description. It's a ton of fun, and be

927
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 1: sure to send me your teams that you're drafting. I

928
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 1: always have a blast when you guys all do that,

929
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: and again, I think you'll really enjoy playing, so rare MLB.

930
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: Let's move on to our fourth question. What are some

931
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 2: of your biggest I was right about that player moments?

932
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 2: I'm sure Rham's is George Kirby asked by just underscore Lions,

933
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,760
Speaker 2: who is your best I was right player moments?

934
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 1: Arm Mmm.

935
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:10,399
Speaker 2: Now we just get to pat ourselves on the back,

936
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 2: our favorite thing to do because we've been wrong plenty

937
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: of times.

938
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,760
Speaker 1: That's what happens when you know that wasn't the question.

939
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 1: That wasn't The question now is just where were we right?

940
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: So so for it's got to be like more or

941
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 1: big leaguer related than prospector related, because I would say

942
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: Elie de la.

943
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 2: Cruz to you, just whatever first not name comes to

944
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 2: your mind where you're like, I fucking nailed that.

945
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jack tells me it's Elie de Lacruz, because like

946
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 1: Elie de la Cruz. I first brought him up on

947
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 1: the podcast on the call up, like when he wasn't

948
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 1: even in the Reds top ten, and I just saw

949
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: a freak in the making, and that was one that

950
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 1: it's still exceeded every expectation I humanly had for him.

951
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 1: I'd say if Annye Pascantino as well, Like nobody was

952
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 1: paying attention to that dude, and that was one that

953
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 1: I think is translated pretty well. Yeah, I don't know

954
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 1: that it's tough because a lot of the guys that

955
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 1: I've like really focused in on are still early in

956
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 1: their biblegue career because I've covered them as prospects. So

957
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: it's like interesting. But I would say Ellie even though

958
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: he hasn't debuted yet, Vinnie Pascantino, and then come back

959
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: to me. There might be one or two others that

960
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: I can think of pretty soon, well, Georgeorge Kirby, George

961
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 1: Kirby obviously, Yeah, I've George Kirby, I think was one

962
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 1: of the first first guys ever talked about when I

963
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,320
Speaker 1: was backing on like locked Onmobi Prospects when I was

964
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: hosting that podcast singing the praises for him. So yeah,

965
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 1: Kirby's got to be and I know that's like one

966
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 1: of the Alex that's Alex from just Underscore Lions. He's

967
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 1: listened back since the locked on Mobi prospect days. I

968
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: think that's how I earned his listen. Was talking about

969
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: George Kirby before, Like before George Kirby was it was

970
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 1: a first round pick, but I think before he was

971
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,879
Speaker 1: really considered like a potential frontline guy or even really

972
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: at top one hundred prospects. Absolutely, I think that was

973
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 1: all banged there.

974
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 2: I think mine might have been this year or before

975
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 2: the season started. Remember when I pitched the Mariners, I

976
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 2: was like, this is the team where I think can

977
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 2: win the World Series. The value was there for me

978
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 2: because it wasn't lining up with a lot of other contenders,

979
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 2: and it was really on the fact of I love

980
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 2: the starting pitching. I think the offense is very good,

981
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 2: but Jared Kelnick is the X factor. And I talked

982
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 2: about that mental change that he made and how important

983
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 2: it was for him because I knew that in the

984
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 2: past he let the game like the game got a

985
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 2: little bit too fast for him. And then I saw

986
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 2: his interviews and he was like, I won that pitch

987
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 2: I won every pitch today and that just clicked for

988
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 2: me where I'm like, if he found that, we all

989
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 2: knew the talent, and I was like, this is going

990
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 2: to be a huge year for Jared Kelnick and he's

991
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 2: going to be the X factor that propels them into

992
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,280
Speaker 2: the playoff fine and then eventually into the World Series.

993
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: So I was right about that. It was right about

994
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 2: Jared Kellennick. But at the same time, the Mariners, the

995
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 2: rest of their offense has not enough to take Askar.

996
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 1: Hernandez having an ADWRC plus or I did not.

997
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 2: And who will say you struggling Typhrance not being that

998
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 2: guy like he was last year, Like I didn't have that.

999
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 2: But in terms of a player, I put a lot

1000
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 2: of eggs on Jared Kelnick will be the ultimate X

1001
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 2: factor in Major League Baseball and he has been one

1002
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 2: of the best overall hitters in the sport.

1003
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say like that that guy became such

1004
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 1: an impossible read and also one that like, I don't

1005
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: think anybody really wanted to attach their name to. So

1006
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 1: I appreciated your willingness to do that, because nothing that

1007
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: you're gonna dive into in the numbers, none of it

1008
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,520
Speaker 1: really made sense, like, yeah, everything looks pretty good, but

1009
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 1: he would just not perform, and to that point, it

1010
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 1: seemed like a mental thing. You listen to interviews, which

1011
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 1: is crazy, and like sometimes it's that like it's that

1012
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 1: gut feeling you get from a guy's demeanor, from a guy,

1013
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 1: what a guy's saying. It's not in the numbers, it's

1014
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 1: just like I sense a different, you know, a different

1015
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 1: energy from this dude, and you bought into that, and shit, man,

1016
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 1: I mean he has been unbelievable, unbelievable, unbelievable.

1017
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 2: Two more guys that I'm not taking a victory lap on,

1018
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:07,440
Speaker 2: but I thought i'd mentioned it. How long have I

1019
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 2: said that Bobaschet has a special bat?

1020
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 1: I mean I have just been screaming time for like

1021
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: years since I think episode one of Projected Plate.

1022
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: I was like, Bobaschet's gonna have three thousand hits. Bobasheed

1023
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 2: is going to hit three thirty. Bobashett, you might have

1024
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 2: very special, special bat to ball skills. And then it

1025
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 2: also translates into power because he's so quick. So right

1026
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:30,319
Speaker 2: now he's hitting three forty, which so that makes me

1027
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 2: look good. But again that's why I'm just taking a

1028
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 2: victory lap because he's kind of been really good since

1029
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 2: he got called up, Like it's always been defensive problems,

1030
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 2: but he's always had a good stick. But I was like,

1031
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 2: there's way more in there than even the two to

1032
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 2: eighty batting average that he used to put. And then,

1033
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 2: of course, I mean ever since Wander came up, like

1034
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 2: his first game, I was just like, Yeah, he's gonna be.

1035
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 1: The best short step in baseball in like a week.

1036
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:53,400
Speaker 2: And then he got hurt, and then I was like,

1037
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 2: all right, this is the year where he is the

1038
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 2: best short step in baseball. Got hurt, and then I

1039
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 2: was like, this year, I think he should be hired.

1040
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: It's up list. I'm telling you, all I need to

1041
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 2: do is stay healthy, and he's showing us why. So

1042
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 2: it's like I'm not taking the victory lop on those two.

1043
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: Because they've always been really good and they've always been

1044
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,359
Speaker 1: but I was always just like, I'm pushing them even

1045
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:15,319
Speaker 1: farther than the narratives surrounding them, and they've lived up

1046
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:16,399
Speaker 1: to it this year so far.

1047
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 2: But it's May thirty first, So that's why kell Nick

1048
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 2: is my answer. But I also wanted to pat my

1049
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 2: back yeah, my own back on Bashet in one.

1050
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,399
Speaker 1: So Bashett is on face now to lead the league

1051
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 1: in hits for the third straight year, That's that's absolutely nuts. Uh.

1052
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: And so he would finish this year potentially with for

1053
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:40,720
Speaker 1: round numbers, let's say six hundred and fifty hits before

1054
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 1: his he's gonna be twenty six before. He just turned

1055
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: twenty five, so before's twenty sixth birthday. He is a

1056
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 1: legit shot at three thousand hits. Obviously, he's got a

1057
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: long way to go, but like if you've got to

1058
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 1: pick candidates like likelihood, he's up there. He's definitely up there.

1059
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 2: We got another question, the question number five, who are

1060
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:10,280
Speaker 2: the best breakout stars so far? So I have two hitters.

1061
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,880
Speaker 2: I don't know if you have pitchers, but there have

1062
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 2: been a couple of guys and I want to start

1063
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 2: with a Saint Louis Cardinal because we got a lot

1064
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:27,080
Speaker 2: of questions of just talk about Nolan Gorman. Yeah, and

1065
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:29,879
Speaker 2: Nolan Gorman has to be in this discussion right now.

1066
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 2: Nolan Gorman has a higher WRC plus than Paul Goldschmidt.

1067
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 2: Nolan Gorman is number ten in all of baseball. The

1068
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:38,880
Speaker 2: top ten is Aaron Judge Yandi Diez, jord On Alvarez,

1069
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 2: Randy Roserena, Freddie Freeman, Sean Murphy, Ronacuney Junior, Juan Soto,

1070
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 2: Boba Schet than Nolan Gorman, Like he has been unbelievable

1071
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 2: and we've talked about him before, but arm this is

1072
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 2: another guy. When you talk about other prospects like a

1073
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:57,160
Speaker 2: Francisco Avres and you talk about the changes that they

1074
00:51:57,200 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 2: made and something that you were worried about long term,

1075
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,839
Speaker 2: it's so cool to see Nolan Gorman legit do that right.

1076
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 2: We were worried about the chase, We were worried about

1077
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 2: the plate discipline, We were worried about just the open exactly.

1078
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 2: And what does he do this year? Lowers the swing rate,

1079
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 2: isn't whiffing, is it chasing?

1080
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 1: Zone?

1081
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 2: Contact is up, the plate discipline is much better, and

1082
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 2: the bat to ball, the swing looks shorter than it was.

1083
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 1: The problems that we had.

1084
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 2: I spoke about this on Cardinals Radio and I was like,

1085
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 2: we were a little bit down on him because we

1086
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 2: knew that when he hit the ball it was going

1087
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 2: to go a freaking mile. But just how often is

1088
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 2: he going to hit the ball with his plate discipline issues,

1089
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 2: and then what does he do this year? He fixes

1090
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 2: all of that, or at least that's what he's done

1091
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 2: so far. And we knew once he would do that,

1092
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 2: he'd be great. We were just can he do that?

1093
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1094
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 2: And not only did he, not only did he do that,

1095
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,960
Speaker 2: he did it so damn quick. Nolan Gorman has been

1096
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:00,839
Speaker 2: one of the best overall hitters in baseball. This dude

1097
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: hits third on one of the best lineups in the sport.

1098
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 2: He's been incredible.

1099
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:06,399
Speaker 1: So talking to some folks, because this is one where

1100
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 1: I was like, yeah, how did it change so quick?

1101
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:11,279
Speaker 1: Talking to some folks around the ORG that had, you know,

1102
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 1: spoken to people within the ORG and some evaluator scouts

1103
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 1: that I had a chance to talk to on the

1104
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 1: backfields because obviously the Cardinals and the Marlins share a

1105
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 1: complex there, so get to you know, Fratten, Fratten, frat

1106
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 1: turned eyes geez a little bit more with with some

1107
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: of these scouts of those teams and people that are

1108
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: around those teams. The one thing that I heard the

1109
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 1: most about Nolan Gorman, which I would you just wouldn't know,

1110
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:36,879
Speaker 1: is how willing he is to adjust adapt and how

1111
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: hard he works and throughout the offseason, worked really hard

1112
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 1: with the Cardinals in the cage to make swing adjustments

1113
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 1: that would cater to those weaknesses. Like he was aware

1114
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: of the weaknesses instead of saying like, oh, you know,

1115
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 1: I'll work through it. I'm already I'm still hitting bombs.

1116
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 1: I don't really care about it, So okay, if this

1117
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 1: is what's going to help me be an elite big

1118
00:53:55,120 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 1: league hitter, I'm going to make those changes. So those

1119
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 1: are the things that it's like, sometimes you can highlight

1120
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 1: the issues and say the majority of players don't make

1121
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 1: the adjustments that you need to make, and you got

1122
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 1: to highlight the risk, but then you get the Nolan Gormans.

1123
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 1: For every Nolan Gorman, there's nine guys who don't make

1124
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: the adjustment and end up fizzling out. And that's why

1125
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 1: it's really impressive that Nolan Gorman's been able to make

1126
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 1: those adjustments and still not have that sacrifice his strength,

1127
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: which is plus plus power to all fields. So I mean,

1128
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 1: it has been really cool to see Gorman make those adjustments.

1129
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:30,320
Speaker 1: You talked about the swing. It's shorter his he's smoother,

1130
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 1: it's more direct, and the approach is better. He's making

1131
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 1: better decisions. I mean, he has to be one of

1132
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:38,360
Speaker 1: the biggest breakout guys. And it's amazing because they suck

1133
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 1: and that the Cardinals, that is. And if the Cardinals

1134
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 1: were performing to the caliber of last year and had

1135
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:47,400
Speaker 1: this Nolan Gorman, they'd be the best offense in baseball.

1136
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 1: And I don't know where they'd be without Nolan Gorman

1137
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 1: right now, he's been pretty much their best hitter and

1138
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 1: not named Paul gold Schmid, which is absolutely insane, absolutely insane.

1139
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 2: So my next guy who all want to bring to

1140
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 2: the table is a guy that nobody's turning.

1141
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:05,320
Speaker 1: On the TV to watch.

1142
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:08,120
Speaker 2: But when we talk about how Nolan Gorman is tenth

1143
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,840
Speaker 2: in WRC plus and Paul Goldschman is eleven, there's a

1144
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 2: rookie who leads all American League rookies in war and

1145
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 2: he's twelfth in WRC plus and his name is.

1146
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 1: Ryan Noda of the Oakland Ryan Noda has been a

1147
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: fucking beast dude.

1148
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:34,879
Speaker 2: Nineteen percent walk rate, forty seven point five percent hard

1149
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 2: hit rate. Ryan Noda of the Oakland A's as a

1150
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 2: twenty seven year old rookie is slashing two forty one.

1151
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 2: Not ideal, but a four hundred on base percentage with

1152
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 2: a four to sixty seven slug and he's even got

1153
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 2: a couple of steals. This guy just hits the piss

1154
00:55:53,560 --> 00:55:56,320
Speaker 2: out of the ball ninety third percentile max exit velocity

1155
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,160
Speaker 2: because he's hit a ball one hundred and fourteen miles

1156
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 2: an hour max average exit loss. He's in the ninetieth

1157
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:04,480
Speaker 2: percentile because he's averaging ninety two point four miles an

1158
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:08,840
Speaker 2: hour off the bat. He walks a ton. He doesn't

1159
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:13,799
Speaker 2: chase outside the zone. There's definitely some whiff with but

1160
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 2: there's a lot of whiff within the zone thirty three

1161
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,720
Speaker 2: point one percent k rate. But in terms of chasing

1162
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 2: pitches outside of the zone, he is in the ninety

1163
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 2: fifth percentile. And he's even an average runner too. Like

1164
00:56:25,640 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 2: Ryanoda at first base, is not, you know, breaking the

1165
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 2: glass ceiling. It's not a guy who you can like

1166
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 2: necessarily dream on because of course, he.

1167
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 1: Is a five draft pick. He's a real five draft.

1168
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 2: Pick, rule five draft pick who is twelfth in Major

1169
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:46,280
Speaker 2: League Baseball in WRC plus. Like he's above Pete Alonso,

1170
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:49,359
Speaker 2: he's above Luisa Rise, he's above Mike Trout, he's above

1171
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 2: Anthony Rizzo, he's above Matt Olsen, he's above Wander Franco,

1172
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 2: He's above Matt Chapman.

1173
00:56:56,520 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 1: He's been amazing. Yeah, it's it's actually any and he's

1174
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 1: off and in WRC plus is obviously you know, park

1175
00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 1: of Justin. But to to have an eight sixty seven

1176
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 1: oh ps in the coliseum, you know, I get, that's

1177
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 1: really remarkable. And a guy that, again another gotta be

1178
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 1: a cerebral hitter, obviously comes from the Dodgers organization. Dodgers

1179
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:17,520
Speaker 1: just didn't have a spot for him on the forty man.

1180
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 1: I'm sure they weren't thrilled to leave him exposed, but

1181
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 1: they had guys that, you know, were a little bit

1182
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 1: more valuable defensively and maybe didn't have as many with issues.

1183
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 1: But this is a guy that says, Okay, hey, I

1184
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 1: with a lot in the zone, how can I hedge

1185
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 1: that I don't miss mistakes which he doesn't need pummels mistakes,

1186
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 1: and I don't give them any free strikes out of

1187
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 1: the zone. So if you only make seventy percent contact

1188
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 1: in the zone, that's fine. I never chase and I

1189
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 1: crush the balls that are left over the middle. You

1190
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 1: can make a living off of that. Ryan note is

1191
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 1: doing that, that's called a mistake hitter. And you can

1192
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 1: be a really good mistake hitter with an elite approach.

1193
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 1: Sixteen percent chase rate. That's elite. I mean, that's absolutely elite.

1194
00:57:59,120 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 1: And then when he hit the balls hard as you is,

1195
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: as he hits it like you said, and he hit

1196
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: the ball in the air thirty seven point five percent

1197
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 1: ground ball rate. This guy has the recipe. I don't

1198
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 1: know if he'll always have a four hundred on base,

1199
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 1: but I think the base will always be high. He

1200
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,240
Speaker 1: will always hit home runs and I think that's going

1201
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 1: to be something that keeps him in the big weeks.

1202
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 1: So Rule five draft pick here by the by the A's,

1203
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 1: they had nothing to lose, and it was a great

1204
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 1: pickup to give him a shot. And it's awesome to see.

1205
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 1: There's nothing better than a Rule five hitter panning out.

1206
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 1: You know, we see pitchers pan out all the time.

1207
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 1: There's just so many arms and you can throw him

1208
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,520
Speaker 1: into the bullpen and whatever. Like, it's really cool to

1209
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 1: see an everyday hitter sect it in the Rule five

1210
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 1: come in and just mash like you just don't see

1211
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: that very often. It's pretty awesome.

1212
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:41,960
Speaker 2: Could be the next Max Monzi potentially a player like that,

1213
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 2: Like I don't know if he'll be that level like

1214
00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: Max Mounsey is, but guys similar Cloth Yeah, cloth like

1215
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,000
Speaker 2: a like a poor man's Max Monzi.

1216
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, be elite. He's poor bans Max Monthy. It's kind

1217
00:58:55,280 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 1: of sick. It's the best hitter on the A's all right,

1218
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 1: go ahead, who's your breakout star so far? Yeah, it's

1219
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:03,480
Speaker 1: got to be. It's gotta be Tyro Estrada. And I

1220
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:06,640
Speaker 1: know he's on the IL right now, which stinks. And

1221
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:10,520
Speaker 1: even if he stopped right now, basically, I know he

1222
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 1: was good last year like two seven f four, but

1223
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 1: in forty seven games this year he's already picked up

1224
00:59:16,360 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 1: two wins. Ninety two percent zone contact is what really

1225
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:22,360
Speaker 1: stands out to me. This guy does not swing and miss,

1226
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 1: but he also hits the ball hard, like, way harder

1227
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: than you'd expect. One hundred and three mile per hour

1228
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,560
Speaker 1: ninetieth percentilex of velocity. And that's something I'm always looking

1229
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:33,960
Speaker 1: at with prospects for a ballpark, one oh one point

1230
00:59:33,960 --> 00:59:36,760
Speaker 1: five is roughly average. So if you're making that much

1231
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 1: contact and hitting the ball a notch above average, you're

1232
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 1: a really good hitter. That's what tyro Astrada is. It's

1233
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:45,439
Speaker 1: a really good hitter. And then you'll get Last year,

1234
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 1: I think a big issue with the in the f

1235
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 1: war department was his defense, and this year he's kind

1236
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 1: of roamed all over. Is he a great defensive shortstop? No,

1237
00:59:55,200 --> 00:59:56,959
Speaker 1: but he can hold his own there. He's a great

1238
00:59:56,960 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 1: defensive second baseman. This year. He was a night negative

1239
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:02,720
Speaker 1: twelve drs guy last year at second. He's a five

1240
01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 1: drs this year at second base, negative four drs at shortstop.

1241
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 1: So he's better at shortstop this year than he was

1242
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:10,880
Speaker 1: at second last year. Obviously, he worked on the glove.

1243
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 1: He's played a little bit of outfield too, so he

1244
01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 1: has that versatility. He's giving them a little bit of everything.

1245
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:19,040
Speaker 1: And I think that's pretty dynamic. If you think about

1246
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 1: he's thirteen for sixteen on stolen bases, he has the

1247
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 1: six home runs. It's pretty hard to debate, you know,

1248
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:28,600
Speaker 1: a refute what tyro Estrada is doing. It seems like

1249
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:32,240
Speaker 1: he's like that next Giants breakout guy. And to me,

1250
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 1: he's got to be the number one exceeded my expectations

1251
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 1: guy going into this year, because it's just hard to

1252
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:40,840
Speaker 1: say anything negative about what he's been doing in the

1253
01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:43,560
Speaker 1: early going to this year. Do you have anybody on

1254
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 1: the mound? What you were looking at? Ooh the mound?

1255
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 2: Do you mound is tough because like, obviously I want

1256
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 2: to say.

1257
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 1: Yeny your cano, like Mitch Keller or yes, yeah, Mitch Keller,

1258
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 1: like has to be that kind of guy, because Mitch

1259
01:00:55,960 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 1: Keller is has a three point zero one era.

1260
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 2: All of his look amazing. He's striking out the world.

1261
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 2: He's six and one for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's one

1262
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 2: of the league leaders in pitching War. He's number twelve

1263
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 2: in pitching War. He's not walking anybody. This stuff looks amazing.

1264
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 2: It has to be Mitch Keller. It's it's almost like

1265
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:16,600
Speaker 2: Mitch Keller on the Pirates is like, all right, that's

1266
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 2: our win. Like you're gonna win other games, obviously, because

1267
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 2: you're a baseball team and you're going to but it's

1268
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 2: like it's almost a given that, all right, Mitch Keller's

1269
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 2: on the mountain for the Pirates. Yeah, they can beat

1270
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 2: anybody in Major League Baseball. So that was one Yen

1271
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,440
Speaker 2: your Cano. Of course. It's just I always think relievers,

1272
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: there's a leapers in breakout stars. It's like shit, like, yes,

1273
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 2: his stuff looks amazing, and I believe in the long term.

1274
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:40,080
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that I don't.

1275
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 1: But I've seen crazier Like I've seen crazier where it's

1276
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 1: like relievers have this great start than fall I just

1277
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:48,320
Speaker 1: I need to see way more from a reliever. Does

1278
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 1: Justin Steel fit the moment because he had a three

1279
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 1: to one eight last year, so like he's.

1280
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:55,720
Speaker 2: Been really good now for me, he doesn't count. I

1281
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 2: think Mitch Keller should be the answer. And then if

1282
01:01:57,640 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 2: you're going to pick a reliever, it has to be

1283
01:01:59,360 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 2: en your cano.

1284
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I think that's right, and then you can

1285
01:02:02,920 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 1: the problem. I'd like to say Bryce Elder, but I

1286
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 1: don't know if I believe it still.

1287
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 2: Four point four to six expected d all right, but

1288
01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 2: of course it's like because it takes into account of

1289
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:16,360
Speaker 2: hard hit, right, Like they're just hitting the ball on

1290
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 2: the ground super super hard and it's turning into double plaze.

1291
01:02:18,920 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I would say, like, I'm I'm sold on

1292
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 1: Bryce Elder being a legitimate starting pitcher. I just don't

1293
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 1: know if he's breakout candidate, like to the degree of

1294
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 1: Mitch Keller, who we think could be a frontline guy.

1295
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree with you. It's got to be

1296
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:36,400
Speaker 1: Keller Canal and then the position fires. We mentioned our

1297
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:37,160
Speaker 1: last question.

1298
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 2: The weekly episodes with Walker Bueler breaking down pitchers provide

1299
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:43,480
Speaker 2: the inspiration for this one. While it's easy to go

1300
01:02:43,520 --> 01:02:46,120
Speaker 2: online and find the best pitches in terms of run value,

1301
01:02:46,240 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: that doesn't always pass what Peter calls the seeing eye test.

1302
01:02:50,040 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 2: Can each of you build your current dream pitcher that

1303
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:57,600
Speaker 2: has a five pitch mix using pitches from different pitchers

1304
01:02:57,640 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 2: across the league? Asked by z on score strau on Ig. Basically,

1305
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 2: let's create the ultimate pitcher by using five pitches. That's

1306
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 2: basically the question. And I want to start off and

1307
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:17,840
Speaker 2: use Joan Duran's four seam fastball. It is it's becoming

1308
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:21,480
Speaker 2: just unfair for him to be in Major League baseball

1309
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 2: at this point, Like Edwin Diaz always had this electric

1310
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:28,880
Speaker 2: fastball and slider. I mean, Joan Duran is one hundred

1311
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:31,080
Speaker 2: and four and a half miles an hour with one

1312
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:36,080
Speaker 2: hundred mile hour splinkers. Yeah, it's when he's healthy, Like

1313
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 2: there are a couple of times where you know a

1314
01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:39,200
Speaker 2: whole pitch a couple days in a row, and you

1315
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:40,960
Speaker 2: could tell that the fire isn't there in his arm

1316
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 2: quite there where it's like, oh, it's one hundred and

1317
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 2: one and then ninety eight. But like when he's had

1318
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 2: a couple of days off rest and he's throwing that

1319
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 2: those pitches at that velocity, it's just unfair. The game's over.

1320
01:03:51,960 --> 01:03:54,880
Speaker 2: You have no chance because no hitter on planet Earth

1321
01:03:54,920 --> 01:03:56,120
Speaker 2: has ever seen stuff like that.

1322
01:03:56,480 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 1: No ever. It's so I don't know how anyone touches

1323
01:03:59,440 --> 01:04:02,040
Speaker 1: it ever, to be honest, like you're cheating for a

1324
01:04:02,080 --> 01:04:04,800
Speaker 1: spot and you just hope it hits the bat, Like

1325
01:04:05,200 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 1: I don't exactly the other way.

1326
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with you on Duran's forcing fastball

1327
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 2: to start it off.

1328
01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 1: Okay, bro, just like what like you could also go

1329
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 1: with Yon Durant's splinker thing. I know what should we choose?

1330
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 1: If that's the change up we pick? I guess right,

1331
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 1: that's splinker.

1332
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:24,160
Speaker 2: But like I kind of want Devin Williams to change up.

1333
01:04:24,280 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true, that's way cooler. Let's take the exercise.

1334
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 1: Let's go, let's go Devin Williams change up. I think

1335
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 1: that's the that's my that might be my favorite pitch

1336
01:04:32,120 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 1: of Baseball to be honest.

1337
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:36,160
Speaker 2: Devin Williams change up. So we got Joan Duran's fastball.

1338
01:04:36,320 --> 01:04:40,880
Speaker 2: We got Devin Williams's change up. The curveball is interesting

1339
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 2: and from an aesthetically pleasing like you're not going to

1340
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 2: find this guy's curveball on Baseball Savant because it doesn't

1341
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:51,920
Speaker 2: have enough time. Right, he's only been up for about

1342
01:04:51,920 --> 01:04:56,680
Speaker 2: a start. I will take Tyler Glasnow's curveball to the grave.

1343
01:04:56,800 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 2: Oh okay, dude, it is just it's it's it's old,

1344
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 2: big and loopie.

1345
01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 1: But it's still like eighty two. It's powerful, and now

1346
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 1: it looks.

1347
01:05:03,960 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 2: Like unhittable, Like it just looks unhittable. So I'm going

1348
01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:10,560
Speaker 2: with Tyler Glasshouse curveball. What curveball would you choose?

1349
01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:13,720
Speaker 1: You know one we're talking about, like, you know, not

1350
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 1: not having it be data driven like I can always

1351
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,880
Speaker 1: I could always go to Clayton Kershaw's curveball. Yeah, but

1352
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:23,680
Speaker 1: I'm looking at glass now on the data side. Glass Now.

1353
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, opponents were six for eighty two

1354
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:33,200
Speaker 1: with fifty seven strikeouts against this curveball. It's unlive an

1355
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 1: eighty or seventy three, seventy three eighty five slash line

1356
01:05:37,160 --> 01:05:38,520
Speaker 1: with a seventy percent k rate.

1357
01:05:40,520 --> 01:05:42,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's id even look at the data. It's just

1358
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 2: like the stats meet the eye test. It's unbelievable.

1359
01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:48,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, we picked that without the without the stats.

1360
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:51,440
Speaker 1: And then Slider. You got to go to Gram, right,

1361
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 1: you have to. We just broke down sliders with with Walker,

1362
01:05:54,600 --> 01:05:58,800
Speaker 1: like it's just comical, how ridiculous to gram.

1363
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:02,320
Speaker 2: Slider is to add to our pitch mix because I

1364
01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:03,760
Speaker 2: think we can keep going. I don't think we have

1365
01:06:03,800 --> 01:06:06,760
Speaker 2: to limit it to five. Give me Blake Trenton's sinker.

1366
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 1: I don't even care if he's healthy, like when he

1367
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:12,040
Speaker 1: comes back healthy, the reliever for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

1368
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 2: I mean that's the definition of the turbo sinker. Yeah,

1369
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:18,120
Speaker 2: I mean it's ninety seven with just the most insane

1370
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 2: amount in that movement, that boat that.

1371
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:22,920
Speaker 1: We always talk about of, just like, how does anyone

1372
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 1: touch that shit?

1373
01:06:24,040 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 2: Ever, he hasn't even pitched this year. Don't care. Give

1374
01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:30,920
Speaker 2: me his seventy percent sicker with a broken arm, even

1375
01:06:30,960 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: though he doesn't, of course have a broken arm.

1376
01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:33,800
Speaker 1: He's got what is he out with right now? He's

1377
01:06:33,800 --> 01:06:36,919
Speaker 1: got an older shoulderder off, like, oh no, yeah, it's

1378
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 1: it's pretty rough. I'm a little worried about him long term,

1379
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 1: but like, don't regardless, give me a sicker, he's still active,

1380
01:06:44,200 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 1: give me a sinker. What else?

1381
01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:47,800
Speaker 2: What other pitches you looking at that you'd want to

1382
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:48,680
Speaker 2: add to this arsenal.

1383
01:06:50,440 --> 01:06:53,440
Speaker 1: It's a great question. I mean it's early, but I

1384
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,160
Speaker 1: think you got to legitimately put some respect on Bryce

1385
01:06:56,200 --> 01:07:00,480
Speaker 1: Miller's fastball in that in that regard. I really do

1386
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 1: think it's in that regard obviously that you know you

1387
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:07,720
Speaker 1: want like the Duran fastball, and I think that's just

1388
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 1: like a different beast. But I think you could give

1389
01:07:10,600 --> 01:07:12,840
Speaker 1: Bryce Miller's fastball. I think you can give Shoeo Tony

1390
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:18,240
Speaker 1: Sweeper some consideration. But Kevin Gosmin splitter, I was about

1391
01:07:18,280 --> 01:07:22,000
Speaker 1: to say that, I was like Devin Williams's change up,

1392
01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:24,880
Speaker 1: because like Kevin Gosman, we can have both. We see

1393
01:07:24,880 --> 01:07:26,600
Speaker 1: the best of Devin Wims because it's like a one

1394
01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:29,800
Speaker 1: inning spurt. But what would what would what would it

1395
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:32,840
Speaker 1: look like if Kevin Gosman threw his splitter just in

1396
01:07:32,880 --> 01:07:36,240
Speaker 1: one inning spurts and throwing it forty times a game,

1397
01:07:36,280 --> 01:07:39,360
Speaker 1: you know, like I do wonder, so that would be one.

1398
01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:42,600
Speaker 1: And then of course the Strider fastball, Like the Strider

1399
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 1: fastball still made just reign supreme, like, it's probably still

1400
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:47,720
Speaker 1: better than Bryce Miller's, probably better than everybody's.

1401
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 2: I love Max Fried's curveball.

1402
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 1: That's another that's also the most aesthetically pleasing. And I

1403
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:56,320
Speaker 1: think Joe Ryan's splitter should also be in this consideration.

1404
01:07:56,400 --> 01:07:58,240
Speaker 1: I know it's a new pitch, but opponents can't do

1405
01:07:58,320 --> 01:08:00,960
Speaker 1: shit with it, and it's it's it passes the eye test,

1406
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 1: it drops off the freaking table. Yeah, I think Garrett

1407
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:06,400
Speaker 1: cole slider should be in there.

1408
01:08:06,600 --> 01:08:11,240
Speaker 2: I think his slider is unbelievable. Who else is in

1409
01:08:11,280 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 2: this conversation? I mean both web and frame or sinkers

1410
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:16,680
Speaker 2: are unhittable.

1411
01:08:20,400 --> 01:08:25,240
Speaker 1: Who else got a lot of greens? Fastball? Now Quantro's fastball?

1412
01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 1: How quantrells everything? Yeah, you know what, how quantrells? Yeah,

1413
01:08:30,360 --> 01:08:30,840
Speaker 1: his mind.

1414
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:34,400
Speaker 2: I want Quantrell's brain with all of these different pitches

1415
01:08:34,479 --> 01:08:35,360
Speaker 2: and be the best picture on.

1416
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:36,960
Speaker 1: The best picture in the history of the world.

1417
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:39,880
Speaker 2: And as we wrap up with the best picture in

1418
01:08:39,920 --> 01:08:41,920
Speaker 2: the history of the world, cal Quandrill's brain with the

1419
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 2: rest of these pitches. That'll do it for this episode

1420
01:08:44,600 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 2: of the Just Baseball Show. We really hope that you

1421
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:48,519
Speaker 2: guys enjoyed it, and the best way to support is

1422
01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:50,759
Speaker 2: to go get your Just Baseball merch in the episode

1423
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:53,479
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1424
01:08:53,479 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 2: the bucket at the dad hat, bad hat, dad hat,

1425
01:08:56,439 --> 01:08:59,400
Speaker 2: absolutely kailler. Go check that out in the episode description.

1426
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:03,400
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1427
01:09:03,479 --> 01:09:05,880
Speaker 2: end soon. Wag your ten dollars down any MLB money line.

1428
01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:08,120
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01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:11,639
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1430
01:09:11,680 --> 01:09:14,080
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1431
01:09:14,160 --> 01:09:17,479
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1432
01:09:17,479 --> 01:09:19,479
Speaker 2: you don't want to spend a time, no worries at all,

1433
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:22,000
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1434
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:24,800
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1435
01:09:24,840 --> 01:09:27,160
Speaker 2: of course, if you're watching this on YouTube and you

1436
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:29,080
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1437
01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:31,880
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1438
01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:47,640
Speaker 2: hit the life button, and with that, thank everybody