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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak here for this Friday, the thirty

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Speaker 1: first of March in London. Coming up today, historic indictment.

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Speaker 1: President Trump is charged over a porn star hush money payment.

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Speaker 1: Easy does it banks suck up less cash from the

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Speaker 1: Fed's emergency backs dot nt point not eight percent, UK's

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Speaker 1: marginal boost from joining an Indo Pacific free trade block,

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Speaker 1: Business confidences on the Upper Smokin' Mirror's economic crime Plan,

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Speaker 1: those other stories we're looking at in today's papers. And

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Speaker 1: I'm Leanne Gern's plus out of orbit, Branson's Virgins satellite launched,

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Speaker 1: business is grounded. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 1: The business news you need to start your day in

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Speaker 1: just one fifteen minute podcast on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning.

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Speaker 1: I'm Alex Webb and I'm Caroline Hitker. Here are the

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Speaker 1: stories that we're following today. Former US President Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: has been indicted in New York on charges related to

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Speaker 1: a hush money payment to a pawn start during his

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen campaign. The formal accusation of a crime means

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Speaker 1: Trump will now have to appear before a court to

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Speaker 1: answer that charge in what's known as being arraigned. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Bruce Einhorn has the details the arraignment could happen as

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Speaker 1: early as Tuesday. As far as what's actually in the indictment,

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Speaker 1: that's the big question. We don't know because the potential

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Speaker 1: crime here of paying hush money payments and then misleading

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Speaker 1: the state about what it is in your business records

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Speaker 1: in New York, that's usually just a misdemeanor. In order

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Speaker 1: to make it a felony, that has to be in

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Speaker 1: furtherance of another crime. And so what that other crime is,

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Speaker 1: whether it's a campaign finance violation, whether it's tax violation,

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Speaker 1: whether it's something else. That's still something that we just

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Speaker 1: don't know about. In a statement, Trump, who is running

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Speaker 1: for president again, said, is quote political persecution and election

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Speaker 1: interference at the highest level in history. He is the

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Speaker 1: first former US president to be indicted in history. And

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Speaker 1: in a moment, we'll hear a little bit more from

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Boots Eroinhorne is going to join US Live. Chump's

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Speaker 1: former vice president Mike Pence, says that the prosecution is

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Speaker 1: clearly politically motivated. Bloomberg's Ad Backster has the details. Pence

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Speaker 1: says Manhattan da Alvin Bragg ran on prosecuting Dinald Trump

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Speaker 1: and a long time since I was in law school,

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Speaker 1: but I remember the old saying, you can indict a

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Speaker 1: ham Sandwich right the threshold. The burden of proof is

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Speaker 1: very low. Prosecutors make decisions, discretionary decisions about what they

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Speaker 1: bring all the time. Pence also says he will decide

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Speaker 1: on whether to testify on the classified document in January

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Speaker 1: six investigations in the next few days. In San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: I'm Ad Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak. Europe banks are using the

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Speaker 1: fed's emergency lending programs less, in a sign that demand

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Speaker 1: for liquidity may be stabilizing. The latest weekly data shows

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Speaker 1: outstanding borrowing dropping to one hundred and fifty three billion

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Speaker 1: dollars from one hundred and sixty four billion. Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen says the turmoil of recent weeks is an

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Speaker 1: opportunity to strengthen the system. These events remind us of

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Speaker 1: the urgent need to complete unfinished business, to finalize post

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Speaker 1: crisis reforms, consider whether deregulation may have gone too far,

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Speaker 1: and repair the cracks and the regulatory perimeter that the

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Speaker 1: recent tracks have revealed. Yellen's speech to the NABE Economic

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Speaker 1: Policy Conference comes as the White House plan's tougher rules

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Speaker 1: for mid sized banks, and in the US monetary policy,

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Speaker 1: the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, personal consumption expenditure, comes out

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Speaker 1: later today. The Boston FED President Susan Collins says that

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Speaker 1: tighter credit conditions may help with inflation. While the banking

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Speaker 1: system does remain strong and resilient, recent developments will likely

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Speaker 1: lead banks to take a somewhat more conservative look and

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Speaker 1: to tighten lending standards. That's contributing to slowing the economy

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Speaker 1: and reducing inflationary pressures, and these developments may partially offset

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Speaker 1: the need for additional rate increases. Collins added that she

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Speaker 1: still thinks that more rate rises are needed to bring

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Speaker 1: down price rises, but Richmond FED President Thomas Barkin disagreed,

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Speaker 1: saying that it's too early to judge the impact of

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Speaker 1: the bank termoil. Neither Collins nor Barkin are voting members

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Speaker 1: on this year's FOEMC. Here in the UK, the country

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Speaker 1: is set to join a trade pack with eleven Asia

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Speaker 1: and Pacific nations three years after officially leaving the EU.

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Speaker 1: Speaking to Bloomberg, car Owen, the British High Commissioner to Singapore,

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Speaker 1: sees it as a win for free trade. With the

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Speaker 1: UK joining, We're going to be the second biggest economy

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Speaker 1: within the CPTPP group and it turns it from a

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Speaker 1: pacific agreement into a global agreement of countries that are

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Speaker 1: hugely motivated to retain an advance free, open and fair trade.

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Speaker 1: The government says that joining the catually named CPTPP will

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Speaker 1: boost economic growth and geopolitical relations. However, the UK's own

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Speaker 1: projections published in twenty twenty one, show that joining the

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Speaker 1: block will only boost GDP by not point not eight percent.

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Speaker 1: So the last story then, in terms of corporate news, now,

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Speaker 1: Virgin Orbit Holdings, the satellite launch company tied to billionaire

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Speaker 1: Richard Branson, is ceasing operations indefinitely. That story now from

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Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett. The announcement came after it failed to secure

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Speaker 1: additional funding. In a filing, the company said it as

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Speaker 1: cutting six hundred and seventy five jobs, or about eighty

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Speaker 1: five percent of its workforce. A spokesperson for Virgin Orbit

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Speaker 1: says operations are being halted for the foreseeable future. The

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Speaker 1: remaining fifteen percent of employees will work on winding down

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Speaker 1: the business. The move punctuates the rapid fall of the

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Speaker 1: Long Beach, California based company after a high profile launch

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Speaker 1: failure in January and a collapse in its stark price.

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Speaker 1: Virgin Orbit temporarily halted operations earlier this month while it's

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Speaker 1: sought additional capital in New York. Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Daybreak, Europe.

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Speaker 1: So those are a few of our top stories this morning.

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Speaker 1: Look at hione to. I think we need to talk

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Speaker 1: about the story around a president Donald Trump. And we

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Speaker 1: sort of knew and the former president himself had had

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Speaker 1: tweeted a little while ago that he might be charged arrested,

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Speaker 1: and so you know, people were watching this. Now he's

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Speaker 1: become the first former president actually to be indicted. So

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Speaker 1: this is a kind of formal criminal charge which is

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Speaker 1: brought by a jury, and this we think around channeling

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Speaker 1: hush money payments to pawn saw during his twenty sixteen campaign.

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Speaker 1: Trump has called the indictment political persecution. Joining us now

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Speaker 1: as Bloomberg's Bruce Einhorn, Bruce, good to have you with us.

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Speaker 1: So what exactly is this about. Do we think that

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Speaker 1: it's about campaign finances and how they will use How

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Speaker 1: much do we know about the charge sheet as it were,

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Speaker 1: very little because the indictment is still under seal, So

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Speaker 1: it's unlikely that we're going to see what's inside it

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Speaker 1: for a while still, possibly not until the arraignment in court,

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Speaker 1: which former President Trump's lawyers said could happen as early

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Speaker 1: as Tuesday. That said, there is a sort of wide

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Speaker 1: expectation that it will be at least partially based on

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Speaker 1: alleged falsification of business records related to that hush money payment.

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Speaker 1: And then the big question is what is the additional

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Speaker 1: crime or crime? What are the additional crimes alleged here?

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Speaker 1: Because in order to get it up to a felony,

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Speaker 1: typically in a case like this, there needs to be

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Speaker 1: another crime. We're hearing all these words that actually aren't

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Speaker 1: necessarily terribly familiar to a non US audience. Indictment obviously

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Speaker 1: a rest, we know, arraignment, this means we're going to

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Speaker 1: see the former president, you know, put in handcuffs and

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Speaker 1: doing a purp walk. Most likely not so. Former President's

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Speaker 1: Trump lawyer has said that he is not going to

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Speaker 1: fight this He's not going to stay in Florida and

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Speaker 1: demand that. The disattorney then tried to extradite him back

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Speaker 1: to New York. So there is going to be in

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Speaker 1: orderly surrendered to the court at that point. Yes, the

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Speaker 1: former president will has have his fingerprints taken, he will

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Speaker 1: have a mugshot taken. Whether there'll be a purp walk, handcuffs,

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Speaker 1: I think everybody suspects that that's highly unlikely. Yeah, Okay.

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Speaker 1: This has been sort of described basically as a stick

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Speaker 1: of dynamite in US politics, which is not short of those.

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Speaker 1: I think loads of politicians have already weighed in on this.

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Speaker 1: Trump has rejected the whole post, says Republicans and Democrats

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Speaker 1: are so bitterly divided. How do you think this is

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Speaker 1: going to add in? There's so many layers to this story.

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Speaker 1: How how do you think it's going to add in

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Speaker 1: terms of political tension. Well, there are currently only a

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Speaker 1: handful of declared candidates for the Republican nomination. Former President

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Speaker 1: Trump is one of them. So some people in the

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Speaker 1: Trump camp and others in the Republican Party argue that

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Speaker 1: this will rally the base, that it will solidify his

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Speaker 1: support and make it easier for him to go ahead.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, being under indictment is not always

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Speaker 1: the best thing when you're when you're actually trying to

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Speaker 1: run for office, certainly, and winning over independent voters might

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Speaker 1: be harder if there are charges. Also, keep in mind

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Speaker 1: that this is the first indictment, but there may be

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Speaker 1: more because the former president is under investigation in multiple places.

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Speaker 1: So there's the investigation going on in Atlanta Fulton County,

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Speaker 1: which is where Atlanta, Georgia is um that's the district

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Speaker 1: attorney there is looking into Trump's attempts to overturn the

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Speaker 1: election in Georgia in twenty twenty. There's also the Department

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Speaker 1: of Justice Special Council Jack Smith, who's looking into all

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Speaker 1: the events leading from the end of the election to

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Speaker 1: the January sixth uprising. He's also looking at the case

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Speaker 1: involving the documents at Mara Lago, so there could be

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Speaker 1: indictments coming there too. So New York is the first,

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Speaker 1: but we may be having others. So former President Trump

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Speaker 1: may be facing quite a lot of legal liability in

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Speaker 1: the in the months ahead. Is it significant electorally that

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Speaker 1: ultimately that at least the first if there are to

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Speaker 1: be more to come. Uh, you know, cases being brought

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Speaker 1: is very much pertains to his relationship with women, and

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Speaker 1: you know, as we look towards twenty twenty four, the

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Speaker 1: impact that has on you and the electoral in a

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Speaker 1: world that is now post rov Wade also, which is

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Speaker 1: different to the twenty sixteen moment. I think that's that

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Speaker 1: is a very good point, right because in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: while there were some people in the pro choice movement

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Speaker 1: who were warning that a Trump victory could lead to

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Speaker 1: the overturning of Roe v Wade, I think quite a

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Speaker 1: lot of people were fairly complacent about that. As we

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Speaker 1: just saw in the twenty twenty mid terms, this is

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Speaker 1: an issue that has had quite an effect on rallying

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Speaker 1: Democratic voters. And so the fact that this involves the

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Speaker 1: former president's behavior with, you know, an adult film actress,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that that's going to make that much

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Speaker 1: of a difference in the Republican primary, because it's no

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Speaker 1: secret that the president has had that. There've been lots

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Speaker 1: of accusations about the former president. I'man that hasn't seemed

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Speaker 1: to damage him with his supporters up until now. But yes,

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Speaker 1: in a general election, it would be a very different story. Okay,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much Bruce for being with us. Good

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Speaker 1: to have you on the program this morning. So Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Bruce Ironhorn the former President Donald Trump becoming the first

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Speaker 1: ex president to be indicted. Coming up next on the program,

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Speaker 1: Business confidence is on the up, a Smoke and Mirror's

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Speaker 1: Economic crime plan, and peanuts pay for a top cybersecurity

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Speaker 1: job at the Treasury. Now the Paper Review on blue

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Speaker 1: Bird Day Break Europe. The news you need to know

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Speaker 1: from today's papers. So we're joined by Leanne Guarrant, who's

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Speaker 1: going to talk us through the some of the top

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Speaker 1: headlines this morning. We're going to start with The Times,

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Speaker 1: which has the headline business confidency. It's ten month high.

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Speaker 1: Lloyd's Bank Barometer shows what's that's all about. Yes, indeed,

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Speaker 1: alex So, UK firms are really turning more hopeful. If

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Speaker 1: you look at this later survey, business confidence has risen

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Speaker 1: to its highest level in ten months now. That's as

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Speaker 1: companies just become increasingly more optimistic about filling all the

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Speaker 1: staff shortages that we did see and the economic outlook

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Speaker 1: for the country. So the latest Lloyd's Bank Business Barometer

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Speaker 1: study shows optimism about the economy actually rose eleven points

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Speaker 1: to twenty three percent in the latest poll. So wage expectations,

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Speaker 1: which are watched so closely by the Bank of England,

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Speaker 1: we know core inflation is a key issue and they

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Speaker 1: always watch this. This strengthened slightly in March, but Lloyd

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Speaker 1: says the signs show that they have peaked from last

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Speaker 1: year's high, so it looks like those could be coming down,

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Speaker 1: which they're saying as adding to the outlook of the economy.

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Speaker 1: And Caroline was talking earlier to Mad's Peterson and he's

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Speaker 1: the chief investment officer and founder of Human Edge Investment Technology,

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Speaker 1: and he was really saying rising wages, dry up cat

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Speaker 1: drive up core inflation. So this was one of the

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Speaker 1: big positives that we can take away from the survey

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Speaker 1: if we want to put it in that kind of rapper. Caroline, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's a couple of new bits of

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Speaker 1: information about the UK economy that are sort of interesting

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Speaker 1: that came up just in the last few minutes, which

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Speaker 1: is that actually the house price drop in March was

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Speaker 1: worse than we'd expected in terms of nationwide, so you know,

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Speaker 1: there's a real worry about how solid is that consumer

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Speaker 1: out there businesses, as you say, a bit more confident. Nationwide,

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Speaker 1: house prices fell three point one percent year on year.

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Speaker 1: That was much more than the two point two we'd expected. Also,

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Speaker 1: the household savings ratio has gone up. We also just

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Speaker 1: learned that so nine point three percent in the third quarter.

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Speaker 1: So people are dashing away more cash. Does that help

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Speaker 1: or hinder the economy? I mean, yeah, it depends how

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Speaker 1: you look at it. It's quite complax. But what, Caroline,

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Speaker 1: do you remember that there was pent up demand that

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Speaker 1: was so talked about throughout the whole pandemic. There was

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Speaker 1: lots of pent up demand and for spending that and

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Speaker 1: would that spurred the economy? Now? I think people are

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Speaker 1: going the other way and as you say, they're saving

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Speaker 1: more and obviously house prices fell and really it's because

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Speaker 1: we're paying more interest and lots of people are not

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Speaker 1: going out to buy houses. So there's lots of going

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Speaker 1: on in the economy. Yeah. Absolutely. Let's also talk about

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Speaker 1: the Guardian, the UK's economic crime plans, smoke and mirrors

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Speaker 1: without new funding. This is a story we've done a

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Speaker 1: lot of work on. Actually, we spoke to Margaret Hodge,

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Speaker 1: we spoke to Lord Agnew about this. This is the

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Speaker 1: Economic and Crime Bill that's coming to the UK. So

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Speaker 1: basically the idea of like London not being London growd anymore. Yes, indeed,

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Speaker 1: and I feel like this is a great story because

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Speaker 1: it's close to Caroline's heart in any way. She did

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Speaker 1: interview Margaret Hodge, the Labor MP who chairs this All

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Speaker 1: party Parliamentary Group on Anti Corruption, and she basically says, listen, Caroline,

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Speaker 1: this economic plan could be smoke and mirrors because the

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Speaker 1: funding is just inadequate and the investment in it. But

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Speaker 1: the Home say Katrizuella Brahman released the new strategy yesterday

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Speaker 1: that's really after a nine month delay. But critics as

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Speaker 1: well as Margaret Hodge, they're just saying that the government

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Speaker 1: need to be stronger when tackling dirty money. You know,

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Speaker 1: they need to really think about cracking down on kleptocrats

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Speaker 1: and money laundering, sanctions busting and also fraud in the country.

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Speaker 1: But this was also welcomed. Margaret Hodge said this has

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Speaker 1: been a good step. We just need to reinforce things

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Speaker 1: and like you said earlier, Caroline, there has been a

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Speaker 1: step change in this country. And we also saw that

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Speaker 1: when a Bramovich he was. Of course, the Chelsea owner

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Speaker 1: was had to sell the club. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe,

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Speaker 1: your morning brief on the stories making news from London

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Speaker 1: to Wall Street and beyond. Look for us on your

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Speaker 1: podcast feed every morning, on Apple's Spotify and anywhere else

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Speaker 1: morning on on DAB Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com. Our flagship New York station is also

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Speaker 1: available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just Say Alexa played

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty. I'm Caroline Heitka and I'm Alex Webb.

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Speaker 1: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

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Speaker 1: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Regula