1 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brabowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. There's 7 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: been a lot of news about Michael Cohen, President Trump's 8 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: personal attorney. The latest is a report that A. T 9 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: and T was paying Cohen uh to get more insight 10 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 1: into the Trump administration as far back as the beginning 11 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: of twenty seventeen. To wait in on this, we want 12 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: to bring in Noah Feldman and Felix Frankfurter, professor of 13 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: laud Harvard University, also a Blue Amberg View columnists joining 14 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 1: us by phone. Noah, thank you so much for being here. Um, 15 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: is there any way to interpret this payment that A. 16 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: T and T made, or a series of payments to 17 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: Michael Cohen, other than simply trying to curry favor so 18 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 1: they can get their Time Warner deal through. It's hard 19 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: to see what else could have been going on. I mean, 20 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: they're the a T and T explanation, namely that they 21 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: just wanted to get some insight into Trump, doesn't seem 22 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: all that credible since it was already nine months into 23 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: the Trump administration when they suddenly made this payment to 24 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: Cohen himself. It looks as though at a crucial juncture 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: in their murder talks, they were seeing if there was 26 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: some way they could get closer to Trump, and Cohen 27 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: arguably presented himself to them as exactly such a such 28 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: a mechanism. If so, it didn't work, since the Department 29 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: of Justice blocked their merger. So one question that this 30 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: raised in my mind is is there a line between 31 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: pay to play types of performance and types of activities 32 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: versus lobbying. Well, legally speaking, if you're paying somebody for 33 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: the purpose of that person then going to the government 34 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: a government official and trying to convince them of your position, 35 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: that's lobbying. And lobbyists have to be registered, and Cohen 36 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: was not registered as a lobbyist, And that's one reason 37 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: that A. T and T immediately said as part of 38 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 1: their public statement, we did not hire Cohen as a 39 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,679 Speaker 1: lawyer or as a lobbyist. They couldn't hire him a 40 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: lobbist because he wasn't registered as a lobbyist. That said, 41 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: there is of course implicit I think in the payment, 42 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: the suggestion that they were trying to hire him to 43 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: lobby and that means a serious that's a serious matter 44 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: for a T and D, and they'll have to do 45 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: an internal investigation to figure out exactly what they were 46 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: up to. So the answer is that legally there should 47 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 1: be a line, but in practice they are all what 48 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: there isn't always uh Noah. As a lawyer, what would 49 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: you want to know about not only this payment to 50 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: Michael Cohen and his law firm, but also other payments 51 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: to his law firm, and well to two things? First 52 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: of all, what services were rendered in exchange for these payments? 53 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: Did Cohen actually do anything for Korea aerospace industries, for 54 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: nov artists, um for a firm connected to a Russian oligarch. 55 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: These are all entities that made payments. The second of all, 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: where did the money go after Cohen got it? And 57 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: it's worth noting the payments were not made to his 58 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: law firm, although you think that would be true. They 59 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,519 Speaker 1: were made to a shell company called Essential Consultants that 60 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: Cohen set up, and that Cohen actually used to make 61 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: payments to Storey Daniels. So there's something particularly fishy about 62 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: the idea that these were not payments made to Cohen's 63 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: law firm, but rather to a special purpose empty shell 64 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: that he created to disperse money in part on behalf 65 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: of the president. Okay, this sounds like a legal question. 66 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: But is this normal? No, I will answer that in 67 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: a real world sex it is not normal. Um, ordinary 68 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: law firms do not own or ordinary lawyers do not 69 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: own shell corporations through which they independent payments and then 70 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: disperse money to to others. That's not ordinary behavior. It's 71 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: certainly not what you do for any legal services, because 72 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: those would ordinarily go through your your law practice. And 73 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: so it's a it's a particularly unusual phenomena. Now, individual 74 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: attorneys who do other kinds of things, lecturing or consulting 75 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: might have an LC for those purposes. I even have 76 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: one for those purposes, but it doesn't make hundred dollar 77 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: expenditures on behalf of clients. No, what's the potential liability 78 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 1: for a T and T as it does an internal 79 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: review and as it faces quite a bit of blowback 80 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: as to these five hundred thousand dollars of payments that 81 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: it made. Michael Cohen, I should say first of all 82 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: that I'm not certain what the number was that A 83 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: T and T s payments, and I suppose that remains 84 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: to be to be determined into tail. But the answer 85 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: is that if you are a corporation and you hired 86 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: someone to lobby, knowing that that person was not registered 87 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: as a lobbyist, you could be implicated to ten really 88 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: in his criminal lobbying. Furthermore, if they were trying to 89 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: influence an ongoing government proceeding, like the Department of Justice 90 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: proceeding that was considering the possibility of their their merger 91 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: with Time Warner, that could be construed as seeking to 92 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,159 Speaker 1: pervert the course of government practice, potentially even bribery. Now, 93 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: for bribery, there would have to be not just a quid, 94 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: not just a gift to someone connected to the government, 95 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,919 Speaker 1: but but a quote some expectation of a response. But 96 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: that's something that they should be worried about it and 97 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: they should have lawyers working on this right now. That's 98 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: a serious matter for a corporation. Noah, wouldn't this be 99 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: relatively easy to figure out based on how a T 100 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: and T accounted for the payment. I mean, because if 101 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: you're paying it for business services, you deduct it. That 102 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 1: that's this good place to start. And I'm sure that 103 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: investigators both internally at A T and T and also 104 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: in the government will will look at that, um. But 105 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: I don't that's necessarily enough. A further investigation has to 106 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: be done with an A T and T to figure 107 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: out who authorized this payment, how did they account for 108 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: it internally? Um, you know, what was its actual purpose? 109 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: What did they think that they were buying. But this 110 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: shouldn't be like a very difficult thing to do, right, 111 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 1: I mean, if you're a major corporation, you have a 112 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: system and a process in place in order to you know, 113 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 1: there's a purchase order or there's a requisition for him, 114 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: I mean full disclosure. My husband's a lawyer. There's a 115 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: lot to do about the culture and who signed off 116 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: on it, and a lot more I imagine as well. No, noah, yeah, 117 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: I think that I think that's right. Of course, that 118 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 1: procedure absolutely should be in place. But you can in 119 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: a big corporation, you can sometimes sign off on something 120 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: without knowing exactly what it's for. Further down the line, 121 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: and the question here is who made the approval, What 122 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: did they think the approval was for? Whatever the line 123 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: item is said is important to know, but it's not 124 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: the whole story. We also need to know who was 125 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: the person who authorized this rather unusual expenditure. Thank you 126 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,919 Speaker 1: very much for being with us. Noah Feldman, Harvard University 127 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 1: Professor of Law. You can follow him on Twitter at 128 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: Noah are Feldman. His latest book is The Three Lives 129 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: of James Madison, Genius Partisan President, and of course uh 130 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: Noah is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Well, with oil moving 131 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: past seventy barrel, we want to talk to an expert 132 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: to find out, well, what's next. John killed off as 133 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: an expert. He's a founding partner of Again Capital and 134 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: he joins us. Now, John, what's your take on what's 135 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 1: happening with oil prizes? Is it all related to the 136 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 1: US pulling out of the Iron nuclear deal that's primarily 137 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: at him, But um, there's really a witches brew of 138 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: of uh strong fundamentals in this market. Literally moments ago, 139 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: and I'm just calling to the data as I speak 140 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: to you. We got the weekly inventory report from the 141 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: Department of Energy, and there's draw downs in everything across 142 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 1: the board, crude oil, diesel fuels, gasoline, um, and this 143 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: is emblematic of what's happening. Diesel fuels in particular have 144 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: just plunged. They're really tight right now here in the US, 145 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: and because demand has been strong and exports of these 146 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: items have been strong. And I'm just checking here, crude 147 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: oil exports once again for the third week in about 148 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: or almost two million barrels a day. So the US 149 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: continues to be a major exporter of crude oil. So 150 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: there's a strong fundamental story outside of the Uran situation. 151 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: But of course the Uran situation is certainly now a 152 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: big part of the overall outlook for crude oil and 153 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: higher prices ahead. John, I want to give you kudos 154 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: because you've really gotten the direction of the price of 155 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: oil correct and you've been really accurate. So, given the 156 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 1: fact that you have access to the oil crystal ball, 157 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: we're looking at crude that just passes seventy one dollars 158 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: a barrel mark. Where are we headed right now in 159 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 1: the near term? Well, unfortunately, again, so we have these 160 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: geopolitical worries with the RAN. You know, you have to 161 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: worry about potential for military conflict so that pumps up 162 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: the security premium then as well as productions in free fall. 163 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 1: And our friends the Saudis are not going to move 164 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 1: with alacrity to put more oil on the market. The 165 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:25,960 Speaker 1: way I see it, I think they're gonna tell us 166 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: that we should check back with them in about fifteen 167 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:32,599 Speaker 1: dollars or so, and maybe then they'll help to stabilize 168 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: the price. So I think we're going considerably higher for 169 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: w t I upwards of five dollars a barrel of barrow. 170 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: What does that do to gasoline at the pump? How 171 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 1: much are we expecting to pay? Well, that's fifteen dollars. 172 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: You get two and a half cents for just on 173 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: the barrel pim um, So you're talking at least about 174 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 1: about forty five to fifty cents higher from here. We're 175 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: already at nearly three dollars, so you're talking around three 176 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: fifty a gallon national average higher in some spots California'll 177 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: be paying, you know, through the nose and another other 178 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: higher traditionally higher price zones like the Upper Midwest. Wow, 179 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: we're gonna be speaking more about the impact that that 180 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 1: could potentially have on the economy later in the program. 181 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: But I want to just get your thoughts further on 182 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: the implications of the US withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. Um, 183 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: what are your thoughts about what could transpire as a 184 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: result of this and were you surprised by anything that 185 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: President Trump said yesterday? Well, there were three scenarios in 186 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: my view, A he stayed in be he had a 187 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: hard exit, if you will, and or see that he 188 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: would sort of pull out in name only. And I 189 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: was really thinking that, just from a political angle, the 190 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: way the President seems to operate in these waters, that 191 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: c would be the choice. And it wasn't. Um, he 192 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 1: chose the hard path. He chose to re implement the sanctions. Uh, 193 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: part of them kicking in ninety days, the rest of 194 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: them kicking in a hundred and eighty days. And from 195 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: my math then, from what will be required of our 196 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:07,400 Speaker 1: counterparties are allies, about five thousand barrels of Iranian CRUDEO 197 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: will be coming off the market at the very least, 198 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: And as a result of that, this is a market 199 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 1: that can't afford any lost barrels, particularly if the Saudi's 200 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: are going to be stingy with their production and exports, 201 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: which they are intimating as even as of this morning, 202 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: that that's their posture for now. So the other big 203 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: fear though here and I don't even like to really 204 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 1: speculate about this, but you saw how quickly the Israelis 205 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: and Staudis came out in support of President Trump's decision. 206 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: So the alliance, as I've been calling it, has been 207 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: laid bare. You have the US Shaddy in Israel aligned 208 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: against Iran UH and maybe to a degree Iraq. So UM, 209 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: the potential or a war premium in prices is something 210 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: you have to consider now as well, John, what's the 211 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: best way for investors to participate if they don't want 212 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: to go and play the oil futures market. Well, I 213 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: still see many of the pure play oil companies as 214 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: UM not reflective of the price environment that we're in 215 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,040 Speaker 1: and that we're gonna look like we're gonna stay in. 216 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: I think part of the equity discount you're seeing and 217 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: most of the major oil companies is because of the 218 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: struct the term structure of the curve. The futures curve 219 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: prices out in December are operative ten dollars cheaper than 220 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: where we are trading in the front of the month, 221 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: but to the extent this persists month after month after month, 222 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: the earnings picture for these companies is going to be Uh. 223 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: I think big upside surprises. So I think that is 224 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 1: probably the safest way to play it. UH. Pure play 225 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: producers certainly are the Chesapeake Oil should be the beneficiaries 226 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: companies like that um, particularly since the global market has 227 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: now been thrown wide open to them as of last 228 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 1: year and the numbers are just growing them. John killed Off, 229 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us and for 230 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 1: sharing your thoughts. Definitely oil on the top of the 231 00:12:55,679 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: minds of many, many traders, investors, and others today as 232 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: oil prices climbed to their highest system of ever of fourteen. 233 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 1: As oil prices climb, so to have expectations for inflation. 234 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 1: This in part is what is driving a ten year 235 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 1: treasury yields above three percent, just as the US government 236 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: plans to auction off twenty five billion dollars of the 237 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: debt later today. Joining us now to talk about what 238 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: to expect with all this is David Kotalk. He's chairman 239 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 1: and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors and comes to 240 00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 1: us from the lovely Sara Sootta, Florida. David, thank you 241 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Um I want to 242 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: talk about inflation. There's been a conundrum of how much 243 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 1: it could potentially accelerate. How much do you view the 244 00:13:56,400 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: increase in oil prices as a huge draw or an 245 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: increasing inflation expectations and uh and sort of as a 246 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: corollary leading to substantially higher U S yields. Well, thank you, Lisa. 247 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure, and it's lovely in Sarasota where 248 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: the price of gasoline is rising like everywhere else. And 249 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: so the real question, I guess is how persistent will 250 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 1: we see the oil price above seventy dollars and will 251 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: it stick and pass through? And that remains to be 252 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: seen in our shop. We're not so sure it sticks. 253 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: And the reason is the ability of American producers to 254 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: turn on product production in a hurry to respond to 255 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: the higher price. So the higher price in essence cures 256 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: itself with more supply over time. It takes a little 257 00:14:55,640 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: time to come on stream. David Kotok, you spend time 258 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: at Lean's Lodge this summer in Maine. Do you believe 259 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: that inflation or the government's debt will be the greater 260 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: of the two conversations. Um at Lean's Lodge will have 261 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: conversation to which, by the way, you are always both 262 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: of you invited each and every time, and I'd love 263 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: to give you the fishing lesson too. I think inflation 264 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 1: will have some conversation because by the time we get there, 265 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: we'll see little signs of higher But I think the 266 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: debt issue is bigger, and the Federal Reserve bigger, and 267 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: the collision of rising debt issue and Silicia just talked 268 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: about the treasury auction size is growing at the same 269 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: time the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet is a 270 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: double whammy, and that's going to be a subject of 271 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: a lot of conversation by the end of this summer 272 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: when we're there. So talking about how much debt the 273 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: US is selling. So they are planning to sell billion 274 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: dollars of ten year treasuries today at one pm New 275 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 1: York time. I'm trying to understand the dynamic behind this 276 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: as people wonder whether whether we're actually going to see 277 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: a three percent coupon on these treasuries for the first 278 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 1: time in seven years. Do you think we're going to 279 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: get there? Yes, absolutely, which is quick before the whole 280 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: sequence is over but yes. So this is what's surprising 281 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 1: to me because you have so many investors who have 282 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: come out and said, you know, I would love to 283 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: own treasuries and earn a three percent yield. We haven't 284 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: earned that for seven years. This is real income at 285 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: a time when there's a lot of volatility. What happened 286 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: all them well, and they're going to have their opportunity, 287 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: and the question then becomes what do they do next? 288 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: I mean, the range of forecasts on the ten year 289 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: treasury yield, say one year forward run from the recession 290 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: coming slowed down. This coming policy is going to hurt us. 291 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: Trade war is going to hurt us, and that's going 292 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 1: to take the tenure yield back closer to two or 293 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 1: to an infraction. I think Barry Banister was out with 294 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: that just recently. And you can get to the other 295 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: side of the coin and you can get forecasts Jamie Diamond, 296 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna have a four percent ten year treasury. Well 297 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: maybe they're both right, and the timing is the question. 298 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 1: But when you have a band that wide, it's impossible 299 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 1: to know what tenure treasure is going to yield a 300 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: year from now. All right, So if you're if it's 301 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 1: impossible to to know what the future brings. And gee, 302 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: that seems like an obvious statement, David, So congratulations for 303 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: being one of a few people to say it. Um, 304 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: what are you What are you telling people who are 305 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 1: looking to put money to work. Well, we have a 306 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: few billion that we manage in the bond market, and 307 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: we use a barbell, and we are increasing the size 308 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 1: of the safety side of the bar bell, which is 309 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: the shorter intermediate piece, especially as shorter intermediate rates have 310 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: now come up from away away from the zero bound 311 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 1: two more reflective of where they ought to be. At 312 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: least that's what we think. And so you protect your 313 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: capital with a barbell. You have some long end to 314 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: get yield and you have some shorter intermediate end to 315 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: protect capital, and you balance the two. And we are 316 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: increasing the safety side, all right, By increasing the safety side, 317 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 1: What does that technically mean you're doing? Is that money 318 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: market funds? Is that municipal debt? What does that mean? Well, 319 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 1: today we bought a block of the treasury two year floater. 320 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 1: That's an instrument in which the interest rate floats. Of course, 321 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 1: in rising interest rate environments, it floats up, and it's 322 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: a Treasury security. It's a substitute for cash. Money market 323 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 1: funds are an interesting question these is because there are 324 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: sweep vehicles in some brokerage firms where the brokerage firm 325 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,920 Speaker 1: is trying to maintain the old twenty thirty basis point 326 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 1: yield and getting more and more pressure from clients and 327 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: forcing the client to have to go through a sequence 328 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 1: of orders to get to a money market vehicle instead 329 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: of a sweep vehicle. When the money market vehicles paying 330 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: one and a half or something like that. In time, 331 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,880 Speaker 1: that will change because the customers will force the brokerage 332 00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 1: firms to step up and pay what they should be 333 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: paying in this market environment. As far as stocks go, 334 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:42,959 Speaker 1: um stocks are dependent on what these earnings are going 335 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: to be. Now that we've made an adjustment for the 336 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: tax code. Our own view is earnings and the trend 337 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 1: of earnings continues. We have a hundred and seventy on 338 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 1: the S and P as a guideline for that's got 339 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: a range of say one sixty five to one dollars 340 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:10,880 Speaker 1: earnings for the companies in the sp Yeah, and if 341 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 1: you take that kind of a number, stock market at 342 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 1: the present level is reasonably priced and it has upside potential. 343 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: What price of oil makes you raise your eyebrows at 344 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:26,120 Speaker 1: the pump ah if if if we trend up towards 345 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: eighty and it's sustained, that would become worrisome to us. 346 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 1: And our view is that the seventies something level is 347 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: near the peak. We have cut back on our energy 348 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: stock et F exposures. We were overweight. We took those 349 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: profits very recently and we actually now are going to 350 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: underwake the industry group because we think most of the 351 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: profit is already in the stocks. Thanks very much, David Kotaki. 352 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 1: Is that rman and the chief executive of Cumberland Advisors. 353 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: The business of veterinary science. It can be summed up 354 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 1: in an approval that was gained on Monday for Kindred 355 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: Biosciences for the first US approval for the treatment for 356 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: unintended weight loss in cats. The drug is mertazapine. And 357 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 1: here to tell us more about the business and the 358 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: drug is the chief executive of Kindred Biosciences are based 359 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: in Burlingame, California, and it is Dr Richard Chin. Dr Chin, 360 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 1: thank you very much for being with us. Tell us 361 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: about this drug and also about Kindred Biosciences. Well, thanks 362 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: Tim and Lisa. First, I want to thank you for 363 00:21:54,080 --> 00:22:00,320 Speaker 1: the opportunity to tell you about Kindred biosciencests. Meritaz was 364 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 1: approved just on Monday. Is a drug that helps cats 365 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: that have started losing too much weight. Um. Sometimes people 366 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: think this is a drug for cats that are too fat, 367 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: but it turns out people actually like fat cats. This 368 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 1: is for cats that are too thin, which is a 369 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: very serious condition because when cats get too thin, they 370 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: can go into liver failure, which can be fatal. Dr Yes, 371 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: go ahead. Well, I just you know, it's it's really 372 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: interesting to sort of view this product in light of 373 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: what we've been hearing about pet ownership and just how 374 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: many more people are adopting pets than they are even 375 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: having children at this point. How big is the market 376 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 1: for this type of drug, so he said, the Americans 377 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 1: spend sixty nine point four billion dollars a year on pets, 378 00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: and of that, about seven million is on Valentine's Presence 379 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: for pets, and one point five billion is for knee 380 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: surgeries in pets. So pets have really become fast. I'm sorry, 381 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: I can't get beyond the Valentine's Presence Valentine. Okay, fine, 382 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: carry on. So you know pets have become family members. 383 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 1: It says, uh, this is not something, um, that was 384 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: a case thirty years ago. So people are really willing 385 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: to spend money when their pets get sick. It's not 386 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 1: a lot of money. Five thousand dollars is what it 387 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 1: costs the chemotherapy and their four hundred oncologists just for 388 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 1: dogs and cats in the United States. And as I said, um, 389 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: knee surgeries. Knee surgeries cost five thousand dollars per knee. 390 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: Usually they need both kneeds. So yeah, it's it's it's 391 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: a big market. Dr Chin. Can you explain kindred biosciences 392 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 1: in the context of working with molecules or potential treatments 393 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: that may have originally been developed for humans and using those, 394 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: maybe in a modified way, to treat a variety of 395 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: ailments in animals such as fever and horses. I know 396 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 1: you've got zametta and also equaline gastric ulcers and so on, 397 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:15,400 Speaker 1: anemia and cats, among other things. Sure you know, our 398 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:20,639 Speaker 1: strategy business strategy is to leverage the billions and billions 399 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: of dollars in research that's been invested on the human side, 400 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 1: and then we take drugs that have been shown to 401 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 1: work really well on the human side and we bring 402 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 1: it over to the veterinary side. So um meriteth, which 403 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 1: is the first molecule, is originally approved for people for 404 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 1: a slightly um different indication, and the same thing with zametta. 405 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 1: This is available for humans in many countries. So what 406 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 1: we do is we reduce the risk, you know most 407 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 1: one of the biggest issues on the human pharmaceutical industry, 408 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 1: and the red part of the reason why it's so 409 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: expensive is that there's only five to time percent success rate. 410 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 1: We are batting about six success rate and higher, so 411 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: the success rate is about ten times higher. So I 412 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 1: want to talk a little bit more about this treatment 413 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 1: UM for cats. It's administered by rubbing the gel onto 414 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: a cat's ears. Is that correct? Yes, So this is 415 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: a drug that UM is put on the inside of 416 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: the year. It's annointment and the advantage of this is 417 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:35,399 Speaker 1: a following when you have to till a cat. It's 418 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: a major undertaking because cats UM do not like having 419 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: things stuff down their throat and it's very hard to 420 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 1: trick them into eating UM pills. Dogs are much more 421 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 1: UM easy to pill because you can hide it in 422 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: peanut butter. So you have to catch the cat. You 423 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 1: have to stuff the tail down the cat's throat told 424 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 1: the mouth closed until the cat swallows the pill. And 425 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: then you take out your back of the band aids 426 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 1: and you band aid up all the scratches. And then 427 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,400 Speaker 1: the next day you try to do the same thing 428 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 1: and the cats running away from you. So instead of 429 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,439 Speaker 1: doing that, you can just put this drug on the 430 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 1: inside of the year of the cat. And you know 431 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: this is a very common condition. By the way, there 432 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: are nine million cats that have this problem every year. 433 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:26,439 Speaker 1: In appetence, Dr Chin, you're also working on some molecular 434 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: some biologic molecular candidates. I wonder if you could just 435 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:34,640 Speaker 1: tell us about the pipeline some antibodies for US indications 436 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 1: such as dermatitis in dogs and canine. Absolutely, so we 437 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: have a broad pipeline of monoclonal antibodies, and monoclonal antibodies 438 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: are cutting edge medicine on the human side as well. 439 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 1: In fact, seven to eight out of the top ten 440 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,560 Speaker 1: selling drugs on the human side are monocolon antibody scentive 441 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 1: transformed human medicine. What we try to do is we 442 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 1: try to bring not the sort of uh, mediocre drugs, 443 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 1: a throwaway drugs from the human side over to the 444 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: bedner side. We're trying to bring the best of the 445 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,719 Speaker 1: best technology. So we have a broad pipeline of antibodies, 446 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 1: including antibodies for the topic dermatitis, which is exema in 447 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 1: allergic skin conditioning dogs. That's very common right now. It's 448 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: over a five million dollar a year market and growing 449 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: very rapidly. It only costs US about five to eight 450 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: million dollars to develop each one of our drugs, so 451 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 1: we'd like to compare it to the human side. On 452 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 1: the human side, it might cost the billion dollars a 453 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 1: drug to develop the drug, and a blockbuster might be 454 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: a billion dollars. We're going to have to leave it there. 455 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for being with us. Dr Riggin, 456 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 1: President and chief executive officer of Kindred Biosciences in San Francisco. 457 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 458 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews that Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 459 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,360 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm 460 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,919 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa 461 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: abramowits one before the podcast. You can always catch us 462 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bluebirg Radio