WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - April 7th, 2023 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:05.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:09.160 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.200 global business finance and tech news as it happened. Sloomberg 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:19.720 Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone, 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:22.280 welcome to the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. I'm 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.480 Carol Masser, of course, Maddie Mills in for Tim Stanovic, 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.080 who is on leave. Well, a holiday short and trading 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:30.040 week and a job's report in the US, and then 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:33.000 a former president pleading not guilty to thirty four counts 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:36.040 of falsifying business records in an alleged criminal scheme to 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:39.440 manipulate the twenty sixteen election. It was a busy week, 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:41.600 to say the least. It was a very busy week. 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:43.839 And coming up this hour a bit of perspective on 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.880 the first ever indictment and criminal charges of an ex 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:49.479 commander in chief and what that means for the twenty 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:53.239 twenty four presidential election. Plus our BusinessWeek team explains how 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:57.120 a group of undercover labor organizers are making serious progress 0:00:57.120 --> 0:01:00.560 in unionization efforts at the likes of Amazon, Starbucks and more. 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.120 Get ready to learn about salting. Not a new concept, 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:06.039 but it's back in favor. All right, all of that 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:07.959 to come, We begin with the ten companies to Watch 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.440 for the second quarter, based on scenarios from our Bloomberg 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.959 Intelligence researchers, each with important catalysts coming in the next 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.320 few months. The list follows our roundup of fifty Companies 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:20.960 to Watch, revealed back in January. This new list includes 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:25.880 companies in ai IT, beauty and banking, sneakers and in 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:28.119 the selling of stocks. It's kind of a mixed list. 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:30.399 I love it with the details. Joining us right now 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.120 the editor of Bloomberg Business Week, Joe Webber and Tim Craighead, 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:36.440 He's director of Research Content and senior European equity strategist 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.479 for Bloomberg Intelligence. Guys, thanks so much for being here 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:41.560 at love. When we do these lists, Joe, let's kick 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.240 it off remind us how it all comes together. So 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.200 we do this exercise called fifty Companies to Watch that 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:50.960 publishes in our Gear Ahead issue in January, and we 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:53.720 love that project so much that we started talking to 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.680 Bloomberg Intelligence last year about how can we keep this going, 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:59.080 and we came up with this idea to do ten 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:02.240 companies every quarter, and what we want to do here 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:05.040 is really talk about just that quarter. These are these 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:07.600 are whereas the fifty companies to watch is for the 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.520 whole year. We just want to talk about who could 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.639 shine or maybe not not have such a great outing 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.360 in a given quarter. And so what the analysts at 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:21.480 b I, led by Tim do is basically have their 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:24.800 magical spreadsheets that they push everything through and what they're 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:29.160 really looking at for these quarters are catalysts and those 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:32.000 are the things that allow them to kind of discern 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:34.520 the tin companies that we want to talk about on 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:38.120 any given quarter. Um. And what I what I like 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.600 about it is that there's always this element of surprise. 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:43.880 There's there's a global nature to this. There's companies you've 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.160 never ever heard of. But that surprise is part of 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:48.960 what I think brings a little bit of the charm 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:51.399 to it. Well, we have to say before you got started, Um, 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:53.280 we were talking a little bit with Tim before we 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:55.720 went on air, and like we were surprised about a 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.160 name like Gap. We'll get into that in just a moment. Tim, 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:00.760 come on in and talk to us about the met metrics. 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:02.440 You know that you look to kind of put this 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:05.960 list together, absolutely, and thanks for thanks for having us 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.000 the list, whether it's the fifty for the year or 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:12.160 it's the ten and a quarter. As Joel said, has 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.800 a catalyst, and there's there's actually three pieces to it, 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:19.800 with the catalyst being a very critical one. The first one, however, 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:25.560 is that our analysts has to have a high, high conviction, 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:31.639 strong view. The second pieces that view needs to be 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:35.280 different from what the market generally is perceiving, and that 0:03:35.320 --> 0:03:39.800 could be, you know, our expectation for revenue or earnings, um, 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.920 it could be the expectation of a restructuring and what 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:46.960 its impact could be. But comparing that to consensus or 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:51.000 what we think investors are embedding m is a critical. 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.680 So it's a strong view that's differentiated. And then there's 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:57.560 that catalyst. It's a trigger that we think can happen 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:00.760 that will bring the market around to our view. And 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:04.080 that's how we work. It's this three pillar approach. And 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:09.120 as you've said, it's across regions, there's positives, there's negatives, 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.200 it's across all sectors, and yeah, it's it's a good 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:17.160 bottom up list, which I think is particularly interesting right 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:19.800 now in a world that's so macro top down driven. 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:22.440 It's refreshing to take a bottom up look at something 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.000 that's a little different. Hallelujah. I'm tired of macro talk. 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:28.400 Give me specifics exactly. We love We love to name names, 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.640 Carol and I speaking of naming those names though, Tim, 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:35.280 can you just run us through the winners here? Who 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.680 are the ten companies on the list? Yeah? Sure? Thing 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:43.600 so Asia, there's two. One is an insurance company called AIA. 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:47.000 The other is Hong Kong Exchanges, which is the stock 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:51.479 exchange in Hong Kong. In Europe there's three. There's a 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:55.719 bank BBVA, it's a big Spanish bank, but as we'll talk, 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.920 there's a Mexican element to it. Cap Gemini, which was 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:05.240 one of the biggest it service companies globally, and Bestas, 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:09.520 which is one of the biggest producers of wind turbines 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:14.960 in the US. There's a consumer bent the things. Uh, 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:22.880 there's Sketchers, there's Gap stores, Alta Beauty and Casey's General Stores. 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.400 But they all have a little bit of a different 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:28.799 twist in terms of why we're either positive or negative. 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:32.359 And last but not least, GFL Environmental, which is a 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:35.080 waste management company that we've got actually a little bit 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.719 of concern about Can I ask a question about the 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.640 consumer piece in the US, Why do you think it 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:44.920 was so heavily weighted to these consumer discretionary names. Yeah, 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:48.440 well so there's it's interesting, you know, there are they 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:52.240 all are in different businesses. So you've got footwear, you've 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:56.400 got a peril, you've got beauty, you've got convenience stores. 0:05:56.520 --> 0:06:01.960 And what what our analysts are looking at is, again, 0:06:02.279 --> 0:06:06.520 what is the market thinking generally, there's a concern about 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:12.799 where consumer spending is going. Consumer discretionary activity cases, for example, 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:17.520 is we think susceptible to that risk, you know, the 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.120 potential of trading down, you go into a convenient story, 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:22.440 you buy a little bit less, you buy something cheaper. 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.280 They all they are also looking to expand beyond their 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:33.200 core of four Midwestern states where they're less well known, 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.920 and it just presents a risk to what we think 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:40.520 consensus is embedding. The other three are all very company 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:45.680 specific stories that are that go beyond the economic cycle. 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:50.840 So sketchers there, we all know those shoes. They're certainly 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:55.279 quite compy, but they're going beyond the US business and 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.560 they're opening in India, they're opening in Canada, so there's 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:02.520 new distribution, there's a partnership with targets, its expanding their base. 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:07.000 We think there's upside opportunity gap. A new CEO was 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.240 coming in. They've re merchandise old Navy where they had 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:14.640 problems last year. They've proven already to Banana Republic can 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.679 do better than it was you know, not long ago, 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.640 and they can adopt that to the gap itself. This 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:24.400 is only a three billion dollar market cap company, you know, 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:27.680 think about the brand and a new CEO comes in, 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:30.520 We think that there's a real story to be had 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.600 and alta, you know, a lot of our a lot 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:35.840 of your listeners are gonna are gonna know this from 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.600 the standpoint of the beauty shop. People are going back 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:41.880 to the office, and regardless of the economy, people want 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:48.680 to look nice, not consumer discretionaries, consumer staple inn That 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.800 was truly so Tim. What about some some of the 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:55.720 macro kind of pressures that obviously the economy has been 0:07:55.920 --> 0:08:00.400 been facing with with say inflation, which continues to you know, 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:04.320 stick around and you know, defy the Federal Reserve a 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.400 little bit. How does that plan to if at all? 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:11.840 How you guys look at these companies in the quarter ahead. Well, 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:14.280 I guess a couple of things come to mind. Their 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:19.600 jol One is GFL. Now, this is a waste management company. 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:26.280 They have been really driven by M and A in 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:30.960 terms of acquiring companies, and that's fueled their expansion with 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.600 higher inflation, higher interest rates, and you know, we do 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:37.200 think that the FED is going to be higher for 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.440 longer as opposed to necessarily pivoting quickly. But I won't 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:45.080 get into the macro. Higher interest rates put a crimp 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.400 on what we think they can do in terms of 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:50.360 this M and A fueled growth. And by the way, 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:55.040 recycled paper is very depressed right now as well, so 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.640 we see some risk to GFL, even though you think 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:02.680 of waste man management is kind of being a countercyclical business. 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:06.640 Another one that sort of plays into this idea about 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:12.360 inflation and higher interest rates is BBVA, the Banko bill Bao, 0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:15.880 the SKAYA. It's a big Spanish bank. They've got a 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.400 big Mexican business where loan growth is actually quite resilient. 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:23.480 They've got a big Spanish business that is very interest 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:26.400 rate sensitive, so when interest rates go up, their net 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:31.280 interest margin or profitability improves. That's a classic banks story 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:35.200 and Frankly, the market seems to be preoccupied with their 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:39.160 Turkey exposure, but that's now actually very small and we 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:43.320 think it's well reserved and not a problem. So we 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:45.680 think the market's focused on the wrong thing and not 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:48.320 on the right thing, which is actually a positive story 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:50.520 on interest rate. Tim, I guess yea. I'm still stuck 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:53.079 on the gap because wasn't this like a seventy billion 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:59.960 dollar market cap company at its heyday room to grow? Yew? 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:03.520 It is so interesting to I mean literally, I Carol, 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.800 I looked that up before we got on Eric because 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.640 I was curious, like, Tim, are you sure about this? Yeah? 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.280 I mean seventy billion to three and a half billion. 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:13.680 It's now a small cap even though you think of 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:17.120 the brand versus Casey's, which you know is a good company. 0:10:17.200 --> 0:10:19.760 But I think a lot of folks probably aren't to 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:22.160 wear Casey's at eight and a half or alta in 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:24.760 the mid twenties. Guys, Thank you so much, Tim, Joel 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.960 Thanks to the editor Bloomberg Business Week, Joel Weber and 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.840 Tim Craighead. He's director of Research Content and Senior European 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:35.200 equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. Joel will be back with 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.040 us a bit later on. Explore the fullest of companies 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:40.520 and more details though in the new issue, and be 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:42.720 sure to check it out online at Bloomberg dot com, 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.160 slash BusinessWeek and on the Bloomberg terminal. Of course, it's 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.440 very cool and interactive. A lot of little moving bitmoji's there, 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:50.920 so you got to check it out online. I love 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:54.000 when there's some visuals that move online. All right, Coming up, 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:55.880 we look at the ripple effects of the Trump indictment 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:58.640 with Tim O'Brien and Bloomberg Opinion, who literally wrote the 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:00.720 book on the art of being the Donald long before 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.439 he was ever in the White House. This is Bloomberg. 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:15.080 Thing is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Tim 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:21.040 Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio. I'm Carol Master with Madison Moves 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.720 this week. As this office is done time and time again, 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:30.520 we today uphold our solemn responsibility to ensure that everyone 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:35.160 stands equal before the law. No amount of money and 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:39.800 no amount of power changes that enduring American principle. We 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:43.320 have to save our country. God bless you all. God 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:49.880 bless you all. And I never thought anything like this 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:55.080 could happen in America. Never thought it could happen. The 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:58.720 only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.480 our nation from those seek to destroy it. Well, the 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.800 two men you just heard from are on opposite sides 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:07.560 of a first of its kind legal battle Manhattan District 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:11.040 Attorney Alvin Bragg followed by former President Donald Trump at 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:14.520 his home Marilago, both from this past Tuesday, and the 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.120 two meeting in court this past week in the Big 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.680 Apple as Donald Trump, the first former US president to 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:24.440 be indicted, pled not guilty to thirty four counts of 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:28.680 falsifying business records in an alleged criminal scheme to manipulate 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:32.400 the twenty sixteen election, and he's accused of using hush 0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:36.280 money to bury damaging information about an affair to help 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:40.320 boost his campaign's prospects. It's the legal worlds, right, maddie. 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:45.360 Interconnecting or cross connecting with politics with business like it 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.679 all just kind of came together, all right, Well, it 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:50.400 seemed only right to have our Tim O'Brien in. Tim 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.600 his senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion. A former editor 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.000 and reporter for The New York Times. He is the 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.600 author of Trump Nation, The Art of Being the Donald 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:00.840 that was published back in two thousand and five. He 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:03.600 joined Maddie and Me to help explain the fallout. Well, 0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:05.439 I don't know if it's a big page in our history. 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.240 I think, like everything around Donald Trump, it's another referendum 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:12.280 on our national identity and our institutions and what we 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:16.320 want out of leadership and the rule of law and 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.760 process more generally. And I think one of the challenges 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:22.280 of the trump eras he challenges us to think about 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:26.360 what we value and who we are. And I think, 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:29.120 ideally the things that we try to value as a 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:35.120 community that transcends political or ideological divides. But he's a 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:38.440 person who actually lives in the divide. He pushes it apart, 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.200 like you know, Hercules at the temple trying to knock 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:45.600 the pillars down. And so I think today, you know, 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:47.839 I think this was a slender case. I don't think 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.840 it was the most weighty of the cases that he's facing. 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:54.840 I think it's the first chapter of a long slog 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:58.160 through a legal tar pit that he is afraid of 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:01.440 and burdened by. Very subdued. Yeah, I mean, I think 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:02.960 a lot of energy has gone out of the bubble. 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.880 But he was subdued in court. However, on his social 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:10.920 media feed he was as chatty and as bonkers as 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:13.320 you could imagine, which I don't think his lawyers want 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:16.520 him to be. Well, his lawyer said afterwards that he's 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.320 going to commit to not posting about it on social media, 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:21.520 which how do you? Yeah? Right? And when he was 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:24.360 in the White House, they said don't tweet without supervision, 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.120 he did it anyway, He's going to do whatever he wants. Yeah, 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.400 I think it's a come uppance. You know, he's someone 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:33.840 who's used to being in control of process in his image, 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:37.040 and he's trotted out on a public stage and humiliated, 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.600 even if the charges aren't the weightiest there are. I'm 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:44.000 surprised that you think that it's humiliating given the weight 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.960 of the charges. Now, well, he's a New Yorker, he's 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.160 a native New Yorker. He made his bones here. This 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:51.920 is a place where he got discovered, where he carried 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:55.040 down the family business, where he triumphed. And he's basically 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.400 being told by a court in that same city that 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.920 you are a criminal and that we're going to prosecute 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.840 you for it. And had he not been president, he 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.120 would have been perp walked and handcuffed too, so that 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.160 would any of us would be humiliated by that. He's 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:13.640 also I think he will digest that as he does, 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.600 and it will feed his desire to fight back. I 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.160 don't think that means he's capitulating, but I don't think 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.520 he was happy. Timmy, you did write a book and 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:24.520 you spent a lot of time with the president. How 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.720 do you think about the time you spent with the 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:30.520 president a lot of conversations with him, and how you 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:35.240 think about kind of what's happened since then? And then, Well, 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:37.440 he was such a different person during the time that 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:40.440 I spent Well, he was a New York real estate 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:42.720 developer who had a TV show, and he was an 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.480 amazing cartoon character. But he wasn't the most powerful man 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:51.560 on the planet who oversaw national security and access to 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:55.800 the nuclear codes and was reshaping the Republican Party in 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.040 his own image. He is a constant. He is the 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:03.640 most consequence political figure of the twenty first century bar none, 0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:07.760 and I think that's through sheer force of his personality 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:13.440 and the capitulation of his party. I think around substituting 0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:18.040 the acquisition of power for the embrace of values, I 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:22.920 think the traditional classic Republican consertive values, lower taxes, less regulation, 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:28.200 conservative court, a robust, hawkish foreign policy. That's all been 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:32.640 turned into like a quisine art in the Trump era. 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:38.600 And what substitute for that is suspicion of expertise, suspicions 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:43.040 of authority, suspicions of institutions, all on the service of 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.600 a narrow elite grabbing power and holding onto it. Well, 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.400 that relatability is part of what you've said makes him 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.120 such a formidable candidate. I wonder if you see this 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.520 trial as something that will hurt or help his relatability 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.360 on the national stage heading into the election. You know, 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:04.440 I don't know. I do think that his supporters, you know, 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:08.920 forgive him everything. He's got a vice lock. I think 0:17:08.960 --> 0:17:12.080 on about thirty percent of the Republican electric that makes 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:15.520 him a power broker in the primary season. I think 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:20.720 independent voters and moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats learned who 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.639 he is through his first term in office, and I 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:25.280 don't think he's going to get them back. And I 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:29.240 think I don't think he's a viable national candidate. You 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:32.760 don't think, no, not anymore. No. I mean, look, he 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:37.199 lost the midterms in twenty in twenty eighteen, you know, 0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:40.159 he lost the general in twenty twenty, he lost the 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:41.960 mid terms and his party lost them in terms of 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.920 twenty twenty two. So no, I don't think he's a 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.560 national candidate, and I don't think the strategy will forge 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:51.760 a national consensus for the party. And that's why they're 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:55.000 in a hostage video with Donald Trump because they need 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:57.760 to get through primary season with his voters, but they 0:17:57.760 --> 0:17:59.840 can't win a national election with those voters. Because that's 0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:02.000 what's fascinating to me, still his hold on the Republican 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.520 Party and how they are so careful about not wanting 0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.600 to come out and criticize him, even you know, as 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:10.560 he's going through this process. I mean, so when does 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:12.480 that go away? Is it after that? I don't think 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:13.840 it goes away. I think it's just going to get 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.160 tested in the primary and will have to see. It'll 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.680 be interesting to see what Mitch McConnell does with that, right. 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:23.080 And and you know, I don't think Kevin McCarthy, he's 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:27.320 just not as I think, as sophisticated a politicians as 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:32.200 Miss McConnell is. And I think he's a Trumps sickopant. 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:34.800 And I think if the Republicans want to re viable 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:39.360 national strategy have to move around sickofancy. I'm curious too 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.400 about the Fourteenth Amendment piece that you've written about him. 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.520 Is there a chance that this is all hypothetical, right? 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.840 But is there a chance that Trump cannot be president again? 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:53.280 I know Congress can override that, but do Republicans in 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:57.399 Congress want to do that? Well? I you know, that'll 0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.880 be a test that you're You're referring to the Department 0:18:59.880 --> 0:19:04.000 of Justice cases. One is about the Espionage Act violations 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:07.360 pertaining to classify documents going tomorrow lago. The other one 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:11.159 is whether or not he incided an insurrection on January sixth. 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.560 There's ample evidence to make a case for both of those. 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.639 The Fourteenth Amendment precludes anyone from who led an insurrection 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.760 from running for federal office, instituted after the Civil War 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:24.640 to keep Confederates out. Depending on how the laws interpreted, interpreted, 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:28.440 and applied, that could come into play if the DOJ 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:30.920 prosecutes him, and we don't know yet that they will. 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:33.159 Was gonna ask you to tim just quickly. We just 0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.199 got about twenty seconds. You expect the other cases to 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:37.840 go forward and maybe could be more difficult for yeah, 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:39.679 and I think he's well aware of those And I 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:42.560 think though, the weariness you've seen in his face is 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:46.000 of what's ahead. That was Tim O'Brien, Senior Executive editor 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:49.320 of Bloomberg Opinion, a former editor and reporter for The 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:52.199 New York Times and author of the literal book on 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.359 Trump called Trump Nation, The Art of Being the Donald. 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:57.120 He was the one voice I really wanted to weigh 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.280 in after everything that happened this past week. Right, it's 0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:03.400 still ahead. On Bloomberg Business Week, some leading American companies 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:06.800 are facing renewed pressure from organized labor as employees within 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:10.639 their own ranks act discreetly to rally colleagues to the cause. 0:20:11.240 --> 0:20:15.440 More on the undercover union organizers that's next. This is Bloomberg. 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:25.960 Please sees Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:31.840 Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio. Every One. Carol Masser here with 0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:34.440 Madison Mills. This week. The US labor market and focus 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:37.320 this past week thanks to several data points, including Friday's 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:39.960 monthly government release. What are the trends though, when it 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:43.440 comes to today's workforce is the resurgence of union interest 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:46.679 in organizing, which brings us to a very detailed story 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:49.160 featured in this week's double issue of Bloomberg Business Week, 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:52.479 about the secret force behind a number of labor union wins. 0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:56.520 It's such a cool story, Carol, with so many interesting anecdotes. 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.680 So get ready everyone to learn about the inside organizers 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:03.400 school well in the process of salting. Thanks to Josh Idolsam, 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:06.320 Bloomberg News labor reporter, who wrote the story and joined 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:09.919 us once again with the editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Joel Weber. 0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:12.480 We haven't had a lot of whole a lot of 0:21:12.560 --> 0:21:17.120 organized labor in the United States for decades. It's been 0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:20.480 on the decline. But salting has been around for a while, 0:21:20.520 --> 0:21:24.719 and it basically means that there are people who will 0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:30.160 organize within companies and draw people to their cause, right, 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:33.920 and that has been a thing that's like an undercover 0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:38.600 agent on exactly. And when you think about these labor 0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:41.280 wins that we've seen over the course of the past 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:46.800 year and change, companies like Amazon have been affected by this, Starbucks, Chipotle. 0:21:47.880 --> 0:21:51.280 This is happening. And Josh, who I think is probably 0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:54.760 the best labor reporter in the country, came to us 0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:57.480 with this idea. That was like, well, who's behind this? 0:21:57.600 --> 0:22:02.480 It's it's this, these salts, and he had an opportunity 0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:05.520 to actually get up close with what this movement has 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:11.120 looked like. So, Josh, take us inside what this actually 0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:14.960 looks like in practice, and is you know, according to 0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:17.080 the sources that you have in the story, you know 0:22:17.320 --> 0:22:18.919 this is going to be a thing that we're going 0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:21.640 to see much more about other companies too. The context 0:22:21.720 --> 0:22:24.760 here is that union organizing is very difficult in the 0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:28.480 United States, and while there is a law on the books, 0:22:28.560 --> 0:22:31.200 as we've written about before a Business Week that gives 0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:35.800 people the right to organize without retaliation, in practice, the 0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:41.879 remedies if companies fire people because they're organizing are weak 0:22:42.119 --> 0:22:46.840 and very slow, and companies have lots of tactics that 0:22:46.960 --> 0:22:51.800 their disposal to try to prevent organizing, including mandatory anti 0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:56.240 union meetings where you might have your manager making ominous 0:22:56.280 --> 0:23:00.920 predictions about what could happen if you organize. And in 0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:04.679 this moment when organized labors at a historic low in 0:23:04.720 --> 0:23:07.000 the number of people in the unions in the US, 0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:12.000 there has been a particular revival of interest not just 0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:15.360 in organizing in general, but in this a salting tactic 0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:22.360 which involves getting a job having the intention to organize 0:23:22.359 --> 0:23:26.840 it while you're there. And there are very loose informal 0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:31.560 versions of that, and there are very planned out versions, 0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:35.359 like we've seen at Starbucks, where a group of people 0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:42.080