1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am Sean Zerillo, 3 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:24,639 Speaker 2: joined today by former professional MMA. 4 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 3: Fighter Billy Ward. 5 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 2: We're gonna take you through our favorite bets, our best underdogs, 6 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 2: top props, some deafans, angles, and certainly our best bets. 7 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 2: For Saturday nights, UFC slate fourteen fights on the card 8 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: starting at four pm Eastern time. That's your prelim card. 9 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 2: The main card will start at seven pm Eastern and 10 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: six fights on the main card. Fights taking place in Austin, 11 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: Texas this weekend, so we may get some wonkey judging 12 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: based upon pass fights that have taken place in Texas. 13 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 2: Let's go straight to the main event between Calvin Cater 14 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: sitting between minus two thirty and minus two to fifty 15 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,479 Speaker 2: depending on where you look, and Josh Emmett as high 16 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 2: as plus two hundred in the marketplace. Now, I kind 17 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: of see this as a binary fight. I know we 18 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: talk about some binary main events in the past, but 19 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 2: I have a difficult time seeing Emmett winning a decision here. 20 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 2: Cater's volume is just going to be so much more potent, 21 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 2: very durable guy, so it's going to be tough for 22 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: Emmett to de finish him. But Emmett hits about as hard 23 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 2: as any fighter pound for pound in the UFC averages 24 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: over two knockdowns for fifteen minutes. He's knocked down all 25 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: of his opponents at featherweight, but he is a bit 26 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 2: long in the tooth for featherweight in his late thirties. 27 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 2: Typically the average age four featherweight is closer to the 28 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 2: mid to early thirties. But Emmett's power is phenomenal, and 29 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 2: if anybody is gonna hurt Calvincator and put him down 30 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 2: to Emmett is probably the guy to do it. That said, 31 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 2: this is Emmett's first foray into a five round fight. 32 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: I believe it's Cater's fourth consecutive five round fight, so 33 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 2: the cardio edge the volume edge certainly go Cater's direction. 34 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 2: He's also the longer and the taller fighter. Emmett perhaps 35 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 2: has the wrestling advantage. He rarely uses it offensively, fact 36 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 2: typically prefers to use it defensively, keep the fights on 37 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 2: the feet, and then knock people out. That said, his 38 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 2: fight power does carry into the third round. Has knocked 39 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 2: Michael Johnson out in the third round. His best round 40 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,359 Speaker 2: against Danny Gay was likely the third round of their 41 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 2: fight relatively controversial split decision. I thought Emmett won that 42 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,399 Speaker 2: fight pretty clearly. I was on in that fights. Maybe 43 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 2: I'm a little biased, but that said, Emmett is consistently 44 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 2: underrated by the market. Typically an underdog in his fights, 45 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 2: carries a lot of fight ending power unless he's able 46 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 2: to knock Cater down in three separate rounds or knock 47 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: him out. Though I do have a tough time seeing 48 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: him winning this fight. Cater's volume is just going to 49 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 2: be there for all twenty five minutes, and even if 50 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 2: he gets knocked down at a round, he might still 51 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 2: be able to edge out these rounds on volume. Absolutely 52 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 2: phenomenal elbows as exiting the clincher when he gets in close. 53 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: So for me, Cater should be around seventy five percent here. 54 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: It depends how much much you cap that Emmett finishing upside. 55 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 2: I use Cater in a small parlay with Dacas in 56 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 2: the first fight of the night. I also think if 57 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 2: you want to enter on Cater live, maybe after rounds 58 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:15,080 Speaker 2: once or three, if he finds himself down a round, 59 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 2: tied one to one or perhaps down to one. I 60 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: do think he's eventually going to rally into the championship rounds, 61 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: and he should win both of those rounds based on 62 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 2: the expected cardio advantage. Billy, I know you prefer the 63 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 2: underdog side of this fight. What did I miss with 64 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: Josh Emmett that has you backing his money line? 65 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I don't really think you missed anything. 66 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 4: And you mentioned the judging, and I think that was 67 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 4: actually one of the bigger points for me is we've 68 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 4: seen lately just such a strong tend towards damage or power, 69 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 4: or at least what the judges perceive is damage or 70 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 4: power being rewarded over things like volume of control time, 71 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 4: and I think it could look really good in that category. 72 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 4: You know, Qatar is not a really good defensive striker. 73 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 4: He eats over seven and a half strikes per minute, 74 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 4: and when you're fighting someone who hits as hard as Emmett, 75 00:03:58,240 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 4: that's not really a great combination. 76 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: You know. Qatar's obviously very, very durable. 77 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 4: Which is why I'm not going for the inside the 78 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 4: distance prop on Emmett. But I could see him carrying 79 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 4: the first two three, you know, three of the first 80 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 4: four rounds just by landing the bigger shots, or at 81 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 4: least what looks like the bigger shots. So I just 82 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:16,720 Speaker 4: think with the way things are being judged now, that's 83 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 4: something that we really need to adjust for. Where you know, 84 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 4: for the longest time, if a guy had better volume, 85 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 4: would say, oh, well, if it goes to a decision, 86 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 4: that better volume is going to carry it. 87 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 3: I don't think that's the case. Now. 88 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 4: We'll see if the Texas judges have got that memo 89 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 4: the way they have other places. But I think emmittt 90 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 4: has the power, and then he does have more of 91 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 4: the grappling upside if he chooses to go there, which 92 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 4: could help him survive the final round or two if 93 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 4: he carries the fight early. 94 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, my skepticism with him offensive regrappling. I think in 95 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 2: a three round fight, I would absolutely be bang Emmett. 96 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 2: Over a five round fight where he hasn't proven the 97 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: CARDI on the fourth and fifth rounds, I don't know 98 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 2: if he's even gonna want to try to grapple because 99 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 2: that may stap his gas tank. I'm also not really 100 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 2: sure how I see cater Or winning. Maybe he gets 101 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 2: a late stoppage. Maybe this goes to a decision. We've 102 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 2: seen Emma get hurt in the past, knocked out in 103 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 2: the past, so I could see actually a late stopage 104 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 2: for Cater. Maybe his round four, round five props would 105 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 2: be of interest to me. I don't really love his 106 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 2: decision prop at the number it's at, but a good 107 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 2: fight definitely a banger, and Cater will put himself in 108 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 2: positions to get hit by Emmett, so could certainly see 109 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 2: Emma getting it done. I just think Cater is the 110 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 2: likelier minute winner, particularly down the stretch. Let's move on 111 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 2: to our favorite underdog bets. I'm actually going to start 112 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 2: here because your favorite underdog leads into our favorite props. 113 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 2: So we're going to push our fight of the night 114 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 2: down a little bit from where we normally do as 115 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 2: we break down these fights. And my favorite underdog is 116 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 2: Garam kutatalads plus one fifty at DraftKings. I like him 117 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 2: quite a bit now. I bet matteas Gamrot against him 118 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 2: in Kutadalodds's USC debut. He's a training partner of Hanzat Schremaiev. 119 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: Guy's very very ferocious, very sturdy, really good defensive grappler. 120 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 2: He got taken down a few times in that fight 121 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 2: and was consistently able to scramble back to his feet, 122 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: So Dmiroshmagoulav, very well rounded fighter, can certainly take him down, 123 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 2: but I don't see him controlling Kutada lads for long stretches. 124 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 2: And on top of that, Karam has the better power 125 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 2: between these two. Maybe Ishmagulav lands more volume. But as 126 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 2: you were just talking about with damage and cater, I 127 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 2: think Garam is going to land the harder strikes. He's 128 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: going to have the bigger moments of the fight, and 129 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 2: in a three round fight, that can certainly be enough 130 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,359 Speaker 2: to swing the scorecards. You might have even lost that 131 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:24,239 Speaker 2: fight against Gamrod. 132 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 3: He thought he did. 133 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: After the fight, he said on the mic that he 134 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 2: thought that Gamrat won the fight. And Gamrat's a guy 135 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 2: I'm extremely eye on. I think he's a future champion, 136 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: maybe a future title contender at minimum. This is a 137 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 2: phenomenal fight. Though both of these guys are probably future 138 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: top fifteen ranked lightweights. I think they're both tremendous, both 139 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,799 Speaker 2: very well rounded. Just for me, Garam has the finishing upside, 140 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 2: has more power, likely to do more damage, and if 141 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 2: he's able to keep this fight on the feet, I 142 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 2: expect him to land the harder and the cleaner strikes. 143 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: Keep ishmag Gulov off of them with his kicks. Those 144 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 2: front kicks are very dangerous that he throws, and good 145 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 2: range rinders. So I like Aroum quite a bit here. 146 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 2: At plus one fifty, I think he should be closer 147 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,599 Speaker 2: to forty five percent, still an underdog, but getting that 148 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 2: plus one fifty forty percent implied on him, I think 149 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 2: is about a five percent edge. You're going with the 150 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: fight between Cowboy, Seroni and Joe lo's On. This is 151 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: a fight that was rebooked from the ol Vera and 152 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 2: gait Cheet pay per view. Cowboy dropped out with apparently 153 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: food poisoning. He's been over in Thailand since filming a 154 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 2: movie with Rampage Jackson, so not sure how committed he 155 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 2: is to the fight game at this point, as much 156 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: as he isn't making money. Tell me why you're backing 157 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 2: Joe lo's On at a round plus one forty five? 158 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 3: Yeah? This is, honestly, I think an awesome card for underdogs. 159 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 4: When I first looked through it, I wanted to bet 160 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 4: most of them, but you know, Lozion really stands out. 161 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 3: It's hard. 162 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: We got two older guys, both at the very least 163 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 4: SERRONI is almost certainly washed. 164 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 3: You know. 165 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 4: He he doesn't want to fight in what feels like forever. 166 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 4: Losn hasn't fought in almost three years, and he still 167 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 4: has the more recent win of the pair, with his 168 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 4: last fight coming as a TKO victory. Yeah, I just think, 169 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 4: you know, Seroni is a guy who's always been super reckless, 170 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 4: balls to the wall, chin in the air, and he 171 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 4: has no chin anymore. He's been knocked out twice since 172 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 4: Lowson's last flot and this is one where if Seroni 173 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 4: was plus one forty, I'd be fine betting that too. 174 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 4: But either of these guys at plus money and what 175 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 4: should be a pretty high variance fight, someone's probably gonna 176 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 4: get finished pretty quick. You know, I really like some 177 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 4: of the angles that you're gonna give us later on 178 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 4: it too, But I just think, you know, Loson having 179 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 4: taken less recent damage is where I'm gonna go with 180 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 4: this one, especially when you're getting plus money on him. 181 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 2: And that'll lead into our favorite props of the night. 182 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 2: We're gonna push fight at the night, as I mentioned 183 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 2: down to the next section, because my favorite props are 184 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 2: on Joe Lozon. Lows On winning round one is plus 185 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 2: six hundred. A draft kings los On to win inside 186 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 2: the distance is plus two ninety at fandueay. I actually 187 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 2: prefer those to his money line around plus one forty five. 188 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 2: Most of his win condition is probably early in this fight. Cowboys, 189 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 2: a bit of a slow starter, tends to build as 190 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 2: his fights go, and if his chin is truly gone, 191 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 2: Loson is probably gonna crack him early and hurt him 192 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 2: and maybe put him down, maybe even gets a club inside, 193 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 2: which is why I'm playing the inside the distance as 194 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: opposed to the knockout prop. But inside the distance plus 195 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 2: U ninety projected that closer to plus two hundred, and 196 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 2: I think a lot of Loson's win condition is certainly 197 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 2: in round one, when Cowboy typically looks stuck in the mud. 198 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 2: Definitely a slow starter, Loson typically comes out with his 199 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 2: hair on fire. So an early Loson finish I think 200 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 2: is his likeliest win condition by a pretty long shot 201 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 2: or by pretty significant Marge should say this fight to 202 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 2: end inside the distance probably a good bet as well, 203 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 2: because Loson does tend to fade if the fights extend, 204 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 2: and maybe Cowboy. A live bet after round one is 205 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 2: probably the best way to play the favorite, because I 206 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 2: think you'll certainly get her better price. I would expect 207 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 2: Loson to win the opening five minutes and maybe even 208 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 2: finish him in the second, which is why I'm splitting 209 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 2: my bets between the round one prop and the inside 210 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 2: the distance prop one other prop I want to mention 211 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 2: Julian Marquez to win in round three. You can get 212 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 2: his highest plus sixteen hundred. Plus twelve hundred is fine 213 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 2: against RoboCop. RoboCop tends to fade lateness fights, and when 214 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 2: he fades, he starts to get in a brawl and 215 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 2: decide we're ending this right here. We're gonna see who's 216 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 2: gonna win. I vu Marquez is the fighter with the 217 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 2: way better shend, way more durability. Maybe he gets submitted 218 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 2: early by RoboCop, but if you decide to slug it out, 219 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 2: if Marquez is able to tire him out gragging deep waters, 220 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 2: I think he can finish him late. So sixteen to 221 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 2: one on Marquez to win in round three I think 222 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 2: is a solid long shot prop. 223 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 3: As well. 224 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 2: You're looking at the fight between Natalia Silva and Jasmine 225 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 2: Usada Vicioussadavicious was a plus two hundred underdog roughly against 226 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 2: kay Hanson now she's coming in as a over minus 227 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 2: two hundred favorite against Silva, who hasn't fought in a 228 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,559 Speaker 2: couple of years inter mid twenties. Expected her to make 229 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 2: some improvements coming in off of that long layoff. How 230 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 2: are you firing at this fight from a proper perspective. 231 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, that jesuita Vicious line is a good point because 232 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 4: we haven't really seen kay Hanson look all that good. 233 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 4: So I don't think we should stock up jesuita Vicious 234 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 4: that high just because you want to fairly lackluster decision 235 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 4: against kay Hanson, you know, was some dominant performance. But 236 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 4: I just think the majority of Sylvia Silva's win condition 237 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 4: is based on a submission. Here, she has seven of 238 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 4: her twelve wins as a professional by submission, including all 239 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,559 Speaker 4: of the last five, and it's probably more than that. 240 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,679 Speaker 4: She's got some regional fights where there's not a win 241 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 4: method listed, but she's fought reasonably tough competition before her layoff. 242 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 4: She submitted a ten to five fighter and a three 243 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 4: and zero fighter in her last two fights, and it's 244 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 4: really not I don't think that much appreciably worse than 245 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 4: the competition that Jasuda Vicious. 246 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 3: Has been fighting. 247 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 4: So when you're seeing plus six fifty for her as 248 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 4: a submission prop and that seems to be the vast 249 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,719 Speaker 4: majority of how she finishes fights, I'm gonna lay a 250 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 4: little bit on that one just to get those long odds. 251 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 2: Let's move on to her fight of the night. We 252 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 2: had a lot of options for this one. This is 253 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 2: a really strong card from top to bottom, the prelims 254 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 2: all the way through the main card. I have a 255 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 2: difficult time seeing too many fights that I'm not really 256 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 2: interested in, and definitely a lot at stake in terms 257 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 2: of ranking spots, potential fighters who could be ranked in 258 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 2: the future, top prospects like Albert Duriah. So a lot 259 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 2: of good fights on this card. Definitely see a lot 260 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 2: of potential for violence, and I think we both have 261 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 2: a violent spot in our fight of the night between 262 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 2: Kevin Holland and Tim means. Holland coming in as high 263 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 2: as minus three hundred means you can get as high 264 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 2: as plus two fifty on the comeback. This is Holland's 265 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 2: second fight at walterweight, and he could have moved down 266 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 2: to welterweight a long time ago, used to fight at middleweight. 267 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 2: Definitely didn't want to cut the weight but has more 268 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 2: of a welterweight frame. His takedown events should be much 269 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 2: better at welterweight. It did look a little bit better 270 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 2: against Alex o'rivera. On top of that, he's been working 271 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 2: extensively with Johnny Hendrix, former UFC fighter and champion Johnny 272 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: Hendrix on his wrestling, and I'm sure he's made some improvements. 273 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 2: I believe he even went over to Dagistan at one 274 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:48,199 Speaker 2: point to train his wrestling a little bit. Holland is 275 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 2: just a bit of a head gase, and you never 276 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 2: know what you're going to get from him. Is he 277 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 2: coming out looking to finish? Is he coming out looking 278 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 2: to trash talk his opponent and beat them up of 279 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 2: the course of fifteen minutes. Tim Means is not the 280 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 2: most durable fighter. I think he actually may be the 281 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 2: better technical striker between these two. But Holland certainly hits harder, 282 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 2: has the length advantage, and just has this intensity about 283 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 2: him where he's looking to finish all his fights. He 284 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 2: may even have the grappling upside here as well. He 285 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 2: doesn't go to it that often, but he is a 286 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 2: black belt under Travis Luder. Colin's a really well rounded fighter. 287 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 2: It's just the head in the fight, IQ decisions that 288 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 2: he makes sometimes or the real issues with him. But 289 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 2: we both like Holland to win inside the distance at 290 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 2: plus one eighty five, I projected this line closer to 291 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 2: about plus one ten, So I think this is pretty 292 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 2: tremendous value, about an eight percent edge on Holland's inside 293 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 2: the distance prop. Maybe means as competitive early. Olvera was 294 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 2: competitive with Holland early, but at some point I expect 295 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 2: Holland to land clean and some straight punches down the 296 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 2: middle Kurt Means and potentially put him away. Maybe even 297 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 2: like I said previously, Loson, I could see club and 298 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 2: sub for Holland as well, considering his jiu jitsu skills. 299 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 2: So if this fight hits the mat, I can see 300 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,560 Speaker 2: Holland subbing him less likely than Holland putting him out 301 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 2: on the feet. Billy, how do you see this fight 302 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 2: playing out? Do you think means could be competitive if 303 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 2: you were playing a money line only. Do you think 304 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 2: means a plus two fifties inside? 305 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say that if we had to go 306 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 4: money line. Just because this line has moved so much, 307 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 4: I actually got Holland at like minus two forty earlier 308 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 4: in the week. I was pretty happy about that, but 309 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 4: at this point, you know, we could haarbage that at 310 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 4: plus two to fifty one means. But you know, the 311 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 4: reason I'm looking at the inside the distance is Means 312 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 4: made his debut in the UFC is a lightweight and 313 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 4: fought is a lightweight primarily before that. Now, that was 314 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 4: a long time ago. He's had a ton of UFC fights, 315 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 4: but he's a guy who if there was a one 316 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 4: sixty or one sixty five class, would be perfect for it. 317 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 4: And I really like Holland as a one to seventier. 318 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 4: You know, he was a pretty small middleweight, but he's 319 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 4: he's huge at walterweight and Means as a guy he's 320 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 4: six to two seventy five inch reach who almost always 321 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 4: has the reach advantage over his opponents, you know, obviously 322 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 4: at lightweight, but even at welterweight. The last two times 323 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 4: he's fought fighters either with a longer reach or within 324 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 4: one inch of reach of him, he's been finished. That 325 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 4: was Daniel rodrig with a datine and Nico Price knocked 326 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 4: him out. I don't think it's it's easy for a 327 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 4: guy like that, who almost always has a reached fight 328 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 4: someone like Holland, who is seeding six inches two in 329 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 4: that department. So that's why I see the strikes coming 330 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 4: in and new touched on the jiu jitsu. I don't 331 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 4: necessarily think this one's gonna spend a lot of time 332 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 4: on the mat, but Holland can pull subs out anywhere. 333 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 4: So that's why I'm going with inside the distance rather 334 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 4: than the knockout odds. But I definitely think knockout is 335 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 4: the most likely condition, with Holland having much better power. 336 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 4: You know, he's really like half a weight class or 337 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 4: a weight class bigger than means all things considered, and 338 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 4: just that huge reach advantage, and he's nine years younger, 339 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 4: and we all know the stats on older fighters and 340 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 4: how well they. 341 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 2: Do, so yeah, when there is about that nine year 342 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 2: age gap, I mentioned it as much as I can. 343 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 2: But the younger fighter wins about ten percent more than 344 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 2: the odds would indicate. I believe they're typically lyned around 345 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 2: fifty eight percent, and they win about sixty eight percent 346 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,520 Speaker 2: of the time. You also mentioned the size of scrap 347 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 2: and see Howland, a former middleweight means used to fight 348 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: at lightweight, So there should be roughly a weight class 349 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 2: in differential in size by the time that they're in 350 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 2: the cage. I don't really know how much weight means 351 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 2: cuts even to get to one seventy. And on top 352 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 2: of that, his cardio isn't the best either, So down 353 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 2: the stretch, I would expect Hollin to really be taking 354 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: over this fight and he may find a later finish. 355 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 2: Round two, round three is more likely where I see 356 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 2: it happening after more competitive round one. Let's talk about 357 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 2: the DFS slate. Fourteen fights on this card, so a 358 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 2: lot more variance and variety that you could make in 359 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 2: terms of your lineups. Billy, give me some DFS angles 360 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: and your strategy for how you're playing the fights this week. 361 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. 362 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 4: I love these bigger cards, you know, cause we can 363 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 4: really focus on just playing the fighters we want to play. 364 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 4: But if you look at the stoppajodje on this fight, 365 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 4: there's not a ton that are super long to be stopped. 366 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 3: So you mentioned Julian Marquez and. 367 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 4: G Rod that one's minus two oh five and then 368 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 4: los On Stroni is minus two hundred. Those are the 369 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 4: longest stoppajodge I think we really need to make getting 370 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 4: fighters from those fights of priority. You know, the favorites 371 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 4: in those fights aren't super expensive, and we've both mentioned 372 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 4: being on the underdog, so that really opens up a 373 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 4: lot of salary. And then I think you mentioned Durai 374 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 4: have as well. That fight's minus one ninety end inside 375 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 4: the distance. I like Buckley there to get a quick finish. 376 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 4: I like Derry I have to get a finish late. 377 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 4: So those are like the three fights. 378 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 3: That I'm really looking at. 379 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 4: And then in terms of just a cheap fighter with 380 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 4: longer stop of jobs that can really fill up a 381 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 4: box score even in a loss, Tony Kelly looks awesome here. 382 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 3: He's got a ton of volume. 383 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 4: That fight is I think roughly at toss up the 384 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:27,639 Speaker 4: end inside the distance or minus one fifty, So it's not, 385 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,159 Speaker 4: you know, the best fight in terms of that, but 386 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 4: if it goes one or two rounds, he can usually 387 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 4: put up enough volume for cash games that should be 388 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 4: more than what you like or more than what you need. 389 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 3: And I don't really love the top end here. 390 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 4: You know, we've mentioned some of the heavier favorites and 391 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 4: the holes we see with them. 392 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 3: I don't think Cody Stamen really does enough to justify 393 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 3: the salary. 394 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 4: Yez could against the very durable Kelly with how many 395 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,159 Speaker 4: strikes he's going to take. But I'm looking real heavily 396 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 4: at this middle ranging here where there's just a lot 397 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 4: of fighters with some stoppage potential who aren't super expensive. 398 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 4: We've got Kyle Dawkas is a good play really like 399 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 4: Jeremiah Wells. Really liked that fight with Court McGee where 400 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 4: I could see either of them putting up a big score. 401 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:03,640 Speaker 3: So super fun card. 402 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 4: You know, I'm staying away from the ultra heavy favorites 403 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,360 Speaker 4: because I don't think they do enough at their salary. 404 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 3: And yeah, gonna be looking at more balanced lineups. This week. 405 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 2: You mentioned the fight between Cody Stavean and Eddie Winland. 406 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 2: Cody Staman is the biggest favorite on the card, around 407 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 2: minus five to fifty, even as high as minus six hundred. 408 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 2: Eddie Weinland is a career ninety percent takedown to defense 409 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 2: and Stamen is a wrestler whose best path of victory 410 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,360 Speaker 2: is usually through wrestling. That said, Winland might be completely 411 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 2: shot and night get knocked out by Stamen, but stayman 412 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 2: from a DFS perspective, probably a guy i'd look to avoid. 413 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 2: Curious before we get to our best bets, do you 414 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 2: have any fight thoughts on Darron Win as an underdog 415 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 2: against Phil Hawes hawse a fighter I typically looked at fade. 416 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 2: I was taking a look at Win around plus two 417 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 2: twenty five. Sometimes he's difficulty making weight, he's the much 418 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 2: smaller fighter. But do you have any interest in Winn 419 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: as an underdog considering he said he like a lot 420 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 2: of dogs this week. 421 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 3: I do. 422 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, he was one that I was gonna mention as 423 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 4: one of the possible underdogs, which obviously means at seventy 424 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 4: two hundred for DFS, like pretty much any in that 425 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 4: range gets there. 426 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 3: But he could rack up a lot of takedowns here. 427 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:04,679 Speaker 4: He could also put him away, and I wouldn't really 428 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 4: be shocked to either of those. 429 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 3: So yeah, that's a good fight. 430 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,880 Speaker 4: It's interesting I mentioned it to you before, but these 431 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 4: fighters have real similar statistical profiles despite being physically just 432 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 4: about as different as you can be in the same 433 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 4: weight class. You know, they're both good wrestlers, throw pretty heavy, 434 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 4: have some holes in their game. Cardio I think is 435 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 4: somewhat questionable on both of them. So yeah, it's definitely 436 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 4: an interesting fight. 437 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 3: This one. 438 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 4: Probably it could either be stopped or turned into one 439 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 4: of those sloppy light heavyweight or middleweight fights where not 440 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 4: a lot happens late. So that's my hesitation from a 441 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 4: DFS standpoint. 442 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 2: But Hau's six feet tall with the seventy seven inch reach, 443 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 2: win is five to six with the seventy in thre each. 444 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 2: It's gonna look absolutely hilarious seeing those guys square off, 445 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 2: and we may just get a wrestling match. We're win. 446 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,959 Speaker 2: I view as the better wrestler, so at plus you twenty, 447 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna end up playing win as well. 448 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:52,959 Speaker 3: Those are real good for DFS if you get them. 449 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 4: I don't know how many people listening are familiar with 450 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 4: like wrestling scoring systems, But to score a takedown and wrestling, 451 00:19:58,440 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 4: the other fighter has to get up and get a 452 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 4: way and escape. But what what wrestlers would call him 453 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 4: matt return. We kind of get back to your feet, 454 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 4: but the guy is still hooked up and takes you 455 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 4: back down. That scores another five points in DFS, So 456 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:10,880 Speaker 4: we could see tons of those if this does turn 457 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 4: into a wrestling match where we see some of those 458 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 4: weird lines where it's like, how did he get twelve 459 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 4: takedowns in a round because he didn't really, it's just 460 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,439 Speaker 4: the way the UFC scores it is a little bit different, 461 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 4: So that could produce a lot of points on both 462 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 4: sides of this one. 463 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 2: And it can also get a little bit tilting too 464 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 2: because sometimes they don't score those Matt returns as full takedowns, 465 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 2: but when is excellent of that trains at Aka well 466 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 2: guys like Kabeeb Daniel Cormier big fan of his and 467 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 2: trained him definitely as well. Similar wrestling style to Cormeer 468 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 2: in terms of how he's able to trip people as 469 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 2: soon as they get back to their feet, put them 470 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 2: right back down on the match. So it definitely like 471 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 2: wins wrestling. Just think Hause is the better finishing upside 472 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 2: because he carries so much power and he's so much bigger. 473 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 2: So let's go to our best bets for the card. 474 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 2: I'm gonna end up mentioning about that I've already mentioned, 475 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 2: so Billy, I'm gonna start with you first. 476 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking at Jeremiah Wells against Court McGhee. One. 477 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 3: This is just a really fun fight. 478 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 4: Like these guys both have pretty high level graph both 479 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 4: have some good power, good pop. But I see Jeremiah 480 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 4: Wells here having most of the finishing upside on the feet. 481 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 4: You know, he swings everything with ill intentions, and he's 482 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 4: also a really high level jiu jitsu player, so you know, 483 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 4: McGee is known as more of a wrestler. I would say, 484 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 4: all things considered, but I don't know that he's even 485 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 4: gonna want to take this one down into Wells, where 486 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 4: Wells has the ability to take the fight to the 487 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 4: ground if he needs to be. And he's also I 488 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 4: think a fairly significantly better athlete here. We saw him 489 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 4: against Blood Diamond, you know, sprinting around after him and 490 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 4: looking really explosive while he tried to chase him and 491 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 4: get a hold of him to bring him to the ground. 492 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 4: But he's also just a finisher. You know, he's finished 493 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 4: both of his UFC fights. He's thirty five, so it's 494 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,479 Speaker 4: weird to call him a prospect, but he only has 495 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,479 Speaker 4: two UFC fights, and I think he's on the upswing 496 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 4: where a guy like McGee has been around for a while. 497 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 4: He's thirty seven, had a three fight losing streak before 498 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 4: his last two wins, which were both decisions. That's not 499 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 4: a fighter I'm looking at as a favorite. And we've 500 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 4: seen this line move to make Wells a little bit 501 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 4: of an underdog here, so I think you can get 502 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 4: him at plus one oh five plus one ten depending 503 00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 4: on the book, and I would make him as the 504 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:00,719 Speaker 4: slight favorite in this one. 505 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 2: We're actually on opposite sides of that one. I do 506 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 2: like McGee but I think the best way to play 507 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 2: him is probably live after round one. You mentioned Wells 508 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 2: as more finishing upside. Don't see Hims a guy with 509 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 2: a ton of cardio. Maybe Wells's round one props is 510 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 2: inside the distance props, maybe an even better way to 511 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: play him. Considering that finishing upside, I do think McGhee better. 512 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 2: Cardio probably takes over down the stretch, but it is 513 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 2: worth noting Wells's Jim and Philly, Sean Brady, Andre Bertrowski, 514 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 2: Pat Sabattini, and Wells there combined fourteen to know in 515 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 2: the UFC that Jim is yet to lose yet in 516 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 2: the UFC. Maybe it finally happens this weekend. But if 517 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 2: you're willing to hide the hot streak at a plus 518 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 2: money number, you could do worse than Jeremiah Wells. I 519 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 2: just think maybe taking his finish props could be a 520 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 2: more optimal way to play him and if you like McGee, 521 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 2: maybe live after round one is how you hedge out. 522 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 2: My best bet of the card. I already mentioned it, 523 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 2: but it's also my favorite underdog back ground Kutada Lads 524 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 2: against Emersh mcgoula plus one fifty out there DraftKings favorite 525 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 2: underdog maybe Deron Win would be the under other underdog 526 00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,679 Speaker 2: that I like on this card, but kutadlodds is my 527 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 2: favorite play. Like I mentioned, projected him closer to forty 528 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 2: five percent. The implied odds are telling you he wins 529 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 2: forty percent of the time, carries more significant power than 530 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 2: Ishmagulov probably last volume. Don't think he's gonna get taken 531 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 2: down and held down. Maybe he'll get taken down but 532 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 2: not held down for extended periods. Gonna have Hamzat. I'm 533 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,879 Speaker 2: not sure if Hamzat will be in his corner actually 534 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 2: for this fight, but he is a training partner of Hamzat. 535 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 2: Hamzat was in this corner for his last fight, and 536 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: really he just blew me away with how well he 537 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 2: performed against Mataias Gamrat, who we're gonna see headlining on 538 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 2: next week's card. So kutadolodds coming off of the layoff. 539 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,239 Speaker 2: I think people are forgetting how good this guy is. 540 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 2: But I think he's definitely given to be a future 541 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 2: rank fighter at whiteweight, and that'll do it for us. 542 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 2: Enjoy the fights on Saturday Night and Austin again, starting 543 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 2: at four pm Eastern time, Main card at seven pm 544 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 2: Eastern time. Make sure to check out the content that 545 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 2: Billy and I put out on Actionnetwork dot com. You 546 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 2: can find my projections, find our best bets, and our breakdowns, 547 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 2: including our senior editor, Dan Stott, new editor of Combat Sports. 548 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 2: For the final three fights on this card, the Holland Fight, 549 00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 2: the main event being Wazon and Serroni, and then finally 550 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 2: the main event between Calvin Gator and Josh Emmett. Best 551 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 2: of luck this weekend. We'll see you next Friday.