WEBVTT - Starbucks Baristas Are Unionizing

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all partnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can

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<v Speaker 1>download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Certainly tough in the overall market,

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<v Speaker 1>trades and broad based selling, but not selling investors snapping up.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, shares of Tapestry stock has been as high

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<v Speaker 1>as nineteen percent in today's sessions, still holding on to

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<v Speaker 1>about a fourteen percent gain, and this despite the parent

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<v Speaker 1>of Coach and Kate Spade cutting its profit outlook due

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<v Speaker 1>to pandemic closures in China. Meantime, a bright spot North

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<v Speaker 1>American demand lifting third quarter sales above estimates. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>get to the quarter and find out what the consumer

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<v Speaker 1>is up to. Delighted to be talking once again with

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<v Speaker 1>Joanne Krivosant. She is you have Tapestry and she is

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City. Joanne, So nice

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<v Speaker 1>to have you here with Tim and myself. How are

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<v Speaker 1>you and how is the retail environment doing well? Thank you,

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<v Speaker 1>Carol and Tim. It's it's great to be here. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for having me. Um. What we're seeing in our business

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<v Speaker 1>is strength and momentum across our business. As you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>our third quarter outperformed, led by strength in North America,

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<v Speaker 1>and we drove double digit global sales growth across all

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<v Speaker 1>of our brands at Coach, at Kate Spade, and at

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<v Speaker 1>Stuart Whitzman. And you know, Tapestry is a powerful combination

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<v Speaker 1>of iconic brands that offer tremendous value for consumers, and

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<v Speaker 1>we have a platform that we've transformed to drive innovation

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<v Speaker 1>and customer engagement, and that model is delivering results. We're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing that in the strength of our digital business, increased

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<v Speaker 1>customer acquisition and pricing power across brand. So a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of things are are working and performing, and it really

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<v Speaker 1>reflects the strategies that that we've put in place over

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<v Speaker 1>the last few years, UM to stay closer to our consumers.

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<v Speaker 1>And drive growth behind our our powerful brands. So we

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<v Speaker 1>want to dig deeper into that. But let me ask you,

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<v Speaker 1>if you had to describe the consumer in a word

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<v Speaker 1>or a few words, how would you do it? And

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<v Speaker 1>would you say that the consumers back at pre pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>levels or maybe even better or still a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>under it. Yeah, the consumer is quite resilient. UM. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've been driving growth above pre pandemic levels for several

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<v Speaker 1>quarters UM. And you know that's that's most apparent in

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<v Speaker 1>our Coach brand, where we've had more quarters in a row,

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<v Speaker 1>but also true at Cape Spade and at Stuart Whitzman

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<v Speaker 1>and UM. You know, our business in the third quarter

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<v Speaker 1>reflects really the strength and momentum we're seeing around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we talked about our growth in North America.

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<v Speaker 1>We drove growth in North America in the last UH

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<v Speaker 1>in the last quarter, UM, but we also saw strength

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<v Speaker 1>around the world in all areas except for China. So

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<v Speaker 1>we saw strength in Europe UM and strong growth in

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<v Speaker 1>rest of Asia as well as in Japan. So UM

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<v Speaker 1>business is performing UM. In fact, even in China going

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<v Speaker 1>into the quarter, we saw strength and and UM you

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<v Speaker 1>know that business only started to weekend when we saw

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<v Speaker 1>the disruption related to COVID in the market towards the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the quarter. Um. So we're seeing a consumer

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<v Speaker 1>that is engaging with our brands. They're getting out into

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<v Speaker 1>the real world. There are real life occasions and um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we see them engaging with our brands, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and our categories and handbags and footwear. Um. And in fact,

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<v Speaker 1>we're we just came off a great Mother's Day, so

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<v Speaker 1>that that continues and the consumer really continues to engage

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<v Speaker 1>both again with our brands and in our categories. Joan,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to I want to hit on the China

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<v Speaker 1>point and dig into that a little bit, because you

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<v Speaker 1>had to have in North America, you overcame pandemic related

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<v Speaker 1>weakness in China when you look at the results overall.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm but I'm wondering from a planning perspective, how

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<v Speaker 1>you're thinking about how long these lockdowns last and how

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<v Speaker 1>long you're going to see that weakness in China where

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<v Speaker 1>business has just dried up since this resurgence of COVID. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>the business was disrupted, but it was disrupted in a

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<v Speaker 1>very discrete way. UM, you know, by the by the

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<v Speaker 1>impact of COVID in the market. And you know, our

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<v Speaker 1>business has been quite resilient over the last two years.

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<v Speaker 1>As I said, you know, we've been driving growth above

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<v Speaker 1>pre pandemic levels for some time, UM, and that shows

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<v Speaker 1>the resilience of our model and the way that we're

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<v Speaker 1>able to shift UM. Two changes that we're seeing in

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<v Speaker 1>demand and changes in the supply chain and supply around

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<v Speaker 1>the world. And our latest disruption has been in China.

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<v Speaker 1>But as as I mentioned, we had strength in the

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<v Speaker 1>market and we've been driving strength as as China came

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<v Speaker 1>out of the first round of lockdowns, the consumer was

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly resilient UH, and we were driving growth significantly above

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<v Speaker 1>pre pandemic levels for a number of quarters. UM. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>as you pointed out, you know, they've they've been hit

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<v Speaker 1>by another round of COVID lockdowns and that has impacted

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<v Speaker 1>traffic UM in the lockdown cities, but also more broadly, UM.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also impacted some of the distribution centers and logistics

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<v Speaker 1>in the market UM, and so we're feeling the impacts

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<v Speaker 1>of that. Our expectation is that, you know, we expect

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<v Speaker 1>Shanghai to begin to reopen. It's beginning of June, and

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<v Speaker 1>we expect a gradual recovery, probably more gradual than what

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<v Speaker 1>we saw last time we came out of lockdown, but

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<v Speaker 1>we do expect a gradual recovery. And you know, our

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<v Speaker 1>brands are targeting the middle class consumer in that market,

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<v Speaker 1>which is an attractive market and growing market, and we

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<v Speaker 1>feel well positioned um as that market recovers over the

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<v Speaker 1>near term, but as well UM for long term growth. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with longer runway ahead go in. There's so

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<v Speaker 1>much stress out there. It feels like, certainly when we

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<v Speaker 1>watch the financial markets, right and we look at some

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<v Speaker 1>individual names, even though your stocks rallying, it's down about

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<v Speaker 1>this year, but it's it's broad based selling. It feels

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<v Speaker 1>like no market or sector is immune. It certainly seems

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<v Speaker 1>in the Star Excel off you sound pretty calm, and

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<v Speaker 1>you sound I don't know, is it cautiously optimistic optimistic? UM,

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<v Speaker 1>help me understand fundamentally what the outlook looks like? That

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<v Speaker 1>might you know? I think we're all trying to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out what is the outlook amid a rising rate environment,

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<v Speaker 1>and what is the business environment and what's the market environment? Um?

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<v Speaker 1>Could you seem pretty calm? Yeah? Well, and we are

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic We're very confident. You know, we have such iconic

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<v Speaker 1>brands in our in our portfolio, and our focus has

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<v Speaker 1>been on, you know, restoring the health of our brands

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<v Speaker 1>and driving better and stronger engagement with consumers. And when

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<v Speaker 1>we do that, the business perform. So we're really focused

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<v Speaker 1>on fundamentals UM and you know when we talk about transformation,

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<v Speaker 1>actually I heard you discussing investment UM in the business

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the show just prior to when I

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<v Speaker 1>came on. You know, we're investing, and we're investing in

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<v Speaker 1>digital tools and innovation and technology that's making us better.

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<v Speaker 1>And as we focus on the fundamental we're seeing traction.

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<v Speaker 1>We're engaging customers, were acquiring more customers. We acquired one

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<v Speaker 1>point four million customers in the last quarter alone, and

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<v Speaker 1>since we've embarked on our transformation, we've acquired thirteen million

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<v Speaker 1>new customers to our brands over the last twenty one months.

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<v Speaker 1>And these are customers who are coming in and engaging

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<v Speaker 1>with our brands. They're shopping at higher a you are,

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<v Speaker 1>higher prices than average, and they're coming back more frequently UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And these customers are also increasingly younger. So as we

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<v Speaker 1>focus on the fundamentals of our business. It gives us

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<v Speaker 1>confidence because we're seeing much stronger engagement, much healthier brands,

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<v Speaker 1>and much stronger engagement with our consumers. Joanne'm wondering about

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<v Speaker 1>your pricing power because you said that there these customers

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<v Speaker 1>are paying more than they were paying earlier. How much

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<v Speaker 1>of that has to do with inflation? Where where are

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<v Speaker 1>you seeing a rise in costs right now on your

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<v Speaker 1>production ended, in your supply chain, And how much are

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<v Speaker 1>you absorbing of that versus passing it along to the customer?

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<v Speaker 1>Because as Saunders and analysts with global data set in

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<v Speaker 1>a note after your results, Uh, the customers that you

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<v Speaker 1>have at Tapestry can cope better with inflationary impacts than

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<v Speaker 1>the average customer. Yeah. And the way we think about

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<v Speaker 1>our pricing power is really in terms of delivering value

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<v Speaker 1>to consumers UM and and that's how we've been thinking about.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, we started this pre pandemic before we started

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<v Speaker 1>to see pressure on the cost side of the equation,

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<v Speaker 1>and those pressures are real. We're seeing pressure on the

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<v Speaker 1>cost side of the equation like others in the industry,

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<v Speaker 1>UM a lot of pressure in freight related to the

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<v Speaker 1>supply chain dislocations that we're seeing, but our focus really

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<v Speaker 1>on the pricing side of it. In the pricing powers

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<v Speaker 1>really driven by the value we're delivering to consumers and

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<v Speaker 1>those emotional connections that we're developing are allowing us to

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<v Speaker 1>drive pricing power, and we're seeing that across our brands.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, some of the investments we've we've made and

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<v Speaker 1>tools and technology or helping us leverage data better in

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<v Speaker 1>across our value chain, so that's making us more informed

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<v Speaker 1>on pricing decisions. It's also making us more informed on

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<v Speaker 1>our assortment decisions and our inventory management so we've got

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<v Speaker 1>the right inventory. We're seeing higher skew productivity UM with

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<v Speaker 1>more concentration behind more powerful items, and that allows us

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<v Speaker 1>UM to drive pricing power as well and to clarify

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<v Speaker 1>our messages with consumers. So on the value side of

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<v Speaker 1>the equation, we continue to deliver unbeatable value for our

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<v Speaker 1>consumers across all of our brands, and that's helping us

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<v Speaker 1>more than offset the pricing pressure that that we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>UM in terms of costs, in terms of our expectations

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<v Speaker 1>going forward. You know, doing when you were part of

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<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg panel that we did, you and I did

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<v Speaker 1>it with a few other heads of companies about a

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<v Speaker 1>year ago, and we talked about disruption as a new

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<v Speaker 1>economic driver. I think part of the conversation we also

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<v Speaker 1>got into what consumers want in terms of sustainability, and

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<v Speaker 1>E s G is such a big part of everywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and I are back from Milk and we talked

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<v Speaker 1>about it with every conversation. I am curious about how

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<v Speaker 1>you guys apply it at the company, and and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>really intrigued about this craftsperson Is apprenticeship program because I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's a way of creating jobs, uh and also

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<v Speaker 1>you know, creating really strong sustainability initiatives at the company. Exactly. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>We're we're really thrilled to bring that to bear. That

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<v Speaker 1>that UM UM Craftsman Apprenticeship program and the way we

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<v Speaker 1>think about E s G. E s G has has

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<v Speaker 1>been part of the fabric of our company from the beginning,

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<v Speaker 1>and and we value UM and we think about it

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of what we're bringing and delivering for our people,

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<v Speaker 1>for our planet and for our communities. And part of

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<v Speaker 1>that UM effort, and some of those efforts include UM Sustainable,

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<v Speaker 1>UM Materials and and the Circular economy and Coach is

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<v Speaker 1>a great example of where we're leaning into the circular

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<v Speaker 1>economy with our our Reloved program that takes product that

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<v Speaker 1>can no longer be paired um and and we we

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<v Speaker 1>relove it literally and when we restore it and we

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<v Speaker 1>bring it back to health, our designers are working on it,

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<v Speaker 1>are our repair centers are working on this product and

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<v Speaker 1>restoring it and bringing it back, and we've seen unbelievable

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<v Speaker 1>reaction from consumers. This is something consumers are asking for,

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<v Speaker 1>It's something our associates love to do. And as we

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<v Speaker 1>think about scaling these programs, we are looking for more

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<v Speaker 1>people to get involved in terms of leather craftsmanship, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's part of the apprentice program that we're developing to

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<v Speaker 1>allow us to further scale these programs. Can say I'm

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<v Speaker 1>an older consumer, but my daughter is nineteen and she's

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<v Speaker 1>a younger consumer. Those are the kind of things that

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<v Speaker 1>really make us take a second look at a brand.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think you guys are onto something. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:53.640
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The cover story of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week, The new issue just out on newsstands

0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:59.199
<v Speaker 1>online at Bloomberg dot com slash business Weekend on the

0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:02.559
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal. It's about the return of the company's longtime

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<v Speaker 1>CEO at Starbucks, along with the rise of a union

0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:10.440
<v Speaker 1>movement among its baristas. We're talking, of course, about Howard Schultz.

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<v Speaker 1>This story by Josh Idolson. Check it out. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>cover story, as Carol mentioned, of the new issue of

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands, on the Bloomberg

0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.640
<v Speaker 1>and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Josh's labor

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:23.640
<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins us on the phone

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.120
<v Speaker 1>from San Francisco. With us here in person is the

0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 1>editor of Bloomberg business Week, Joel Webber. He's with us

0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:31.520
<v Speaker 1>in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studios. Joel, I want to

0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.000
<v Speaker 1>start with you because this is the third time that

0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:37.320
<v Speaker 1>Howard Schultz has been at the home of Starbucks. What

0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:40.960
<v Speaker 1>is the Starbucks that he found when he returned just

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.920
<v Speaker 1>about a month ago as CEO. The surprise I think

0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.839
<v Speaker 1>that probably awaited him was one that he was not

0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:51.000
<v Speaker 1>probably familiar with from his other stints, which was this

0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:56.560
<v Speaker 1>newfound power that the labor has and Starbucks, which I

0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 1>found really surprising the workers of Starbucks. Have you know,

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 1>for all of this talk about unionization sweeping the country

0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:07.640
<v Speaker 1>right now, Amazon being one that we've talked about extensively,

0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.839
<v Speaker 1>all those all of those roads lead back to what

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 1>has been happening at Starbucks, and Starbucks has been really

0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.760
<v Speaker 1>the workers of Starbucks have been galvanizing force that a

0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of other workers in corporate America have been inspired by.

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.640
<v Speaker 1>And and Josh to his credit, saw this long ago

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 1>and started reporting the heck out of it and going

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.360
<v Speaker 1>to as many states and and talking to as many

0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:34.360
<v Speaker 1>workers who were behind the scenes of that union effort.

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:38.480
<v Speaker 1>And so what you really have here is a CEO

0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:43.000
<v Speaker 1>who helped build this company into a global brand, comes

0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 1>back to it and has found that the workers aren't

0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:50.319
<v Speaker 1>buying that same vision that he had laid out long ago.

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 1>And you see this tension between the workers and Schultz

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:56.680
<v Speaker 1>and and it even culminates with, you know, the workers

0:13:56.720 --> 0:14:00.320
<v Speaker 1>being invited to the White House um and the company

0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.360
<v Speaker 1>sort of saying, hey, you know we we we got

0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 1>cut out of this. So so josh Um, what what

0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 1>do you know? You're somebody who follows um labor obviously

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.400
<v Speaker 1>very closely. I think Josh is like probably as good

0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.440
<v Speaker 1>as it gets in terms of labor reporting in this

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.480
<v Speaker 1>country right now. And what really distinguishes the Starbucks story

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:23.280
<v Speaker 1>for a wider audience here, so in recent decades in

0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:27.440
<v Speaker 1>the United States, it's pretty much unheard of for workers

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 1>to win a labor board election at a company as

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.000
<v Speaker 1>prominent as Starbucks where there isn't a union already and

0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:37.280
<v Speaker 1>there isn't some kind of deal between the union and

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.440
<v Speaker 1>the company to play nice. And that this union not

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:45.720
<v Speaker 1>only won that first election in Buffalo, but has now

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 1>won at sixty some stores and is petitioning to unionize

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 1>hundreds of Starbucks cafes around the country. Is a movement

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 1>with little precedent in the twenty one century United States

0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 1>at a big company me and it is being done

0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:05.840
<v Speaker 1>mainly through workers mentoring each other. Not just workers organizing

0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.280
<v Speaker 1>their coworkers, but workers training other workers to train other

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 1>workers to train other workers to organize their coworkers. And

0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.720
<v Speaker 1>that is how, as one worker put at, this ultimate

0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:20.360
<v Speaker 1>group project has spread so quickly and has proven so

0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.680
<v Speaker 1>difficult for Starbucks despite all the resources at its disposal

0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 1>and the goodwill that it's had to stem this movement

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.280
<v Speaker 1>from growing and spreading further. There are a lot of

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:34.480
<v Speaker 1>directions I want to go, Josh, but one question that

0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>continues to stick out to me is, you know, Starbucks

0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:42.480
<v Speaker 1>is as corporate is very pushing back, very aggressively when

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:44.760
<v Speaker 1>it comes to these unionization efforts on an individual level,

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 1>even before Howard Schultz came back, remember he flew to

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:51.960
<v Speaker 1>Buffalo to meet with those unionizing employees. What is what

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.920
<v Speaker 1>what does that stake here for Starbucks? If there is

0:15:55.000 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 1>widespread unionization across US stores here to what that does

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 1>that affect Starbucks business? Well, there are two big reasons

0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:08.600
<v Speaker 1>that companies tend to resist unionization, and one is money

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 1>and the other is power. Of course, for the union

0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:18.160
<v Speaker 1>to prove its worth two workers, it is going to

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.640
<v Speaker 1>need to show that it can extract things from Starbucks

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 1>that workers one an otherwise get, and some of those

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.840
<v Speaker 1>things are going to cost money. But the other reason

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.680
<v Speaker 1>that companies fight unions, and that they often are willing

0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 1>to spend a whole lot of money both on anti

0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:38.560
<v Speaker 1>union consultants and on making improvements to try to modify people,

0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:42.160
<v Speaker 1>is that they don't want to give up that control

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:46.600
<v Speaker 1>over how the businesses run. And Starbucks for years has bragged,

0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 1>including Howard Scholtz has bragged that there's an empty chair

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.320
<v Speaker 1>at the board meeting that represents workers voice. So now

0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:56.120
<v Speaker 1>you have workers saying, why is the chair empty? Put

0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 1>us in the chair instead. And in fact, in Buffalo,

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:03.280
<v Speaker 1>they're in collective bargaining negotiations proposing that Starbucks should have

0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>to put a representative of the workers on its board.

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:12.320
<v Speaker 1>And so for Starbucks to become substantially unionized would mean

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 1>that Starbucks executives have less unilateral ability to decide what

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 1>the business model should be, what the rules should be.

0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.800
<v Speaker 1>And that's part of why the stakes here are so high. Josh,

0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:28.399
<v Speaker 1>what happened at the company? I thought this was the

0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.879
<v Speaker 1>one where they paid their workers as well, they had

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.160
<v Speaker 1>nice benefits. I mean, this is something at Chultz kind

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.920
<v Speaker 1>of took pride in as you as you report what happened.

0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:41.199
<v Speaker 1>So workers would answer that question in two different ways,

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 1>and one is to say it's not as dreamy as

0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:48.520
<v Speaker 1>it may sound. Even the fifteen dollar minimum pay that

0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:52.560
<v Speaker 1>the workers will be guaranteed by August is not a

0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:55.399
<v Speaker 1>living wage for someone with a child. In a city

0:17:55.480 --> 0:18:00.600
<v Speaker 1>like Seattle, the staffing issues have been egregious at times,

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:04.600
<v Speaker 1>especially during COVID, and the handling of COVID disappointed some

0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.679
<v Speaker 1>orders and left them feeling betrayed. The other answer they

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.240
<v Speaker 1>would give is that it's not enough to be better

0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:16.600
<v Speaker 1>than other fast food companies, and that they believe they

0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:21.080
<v Speaker 1>should have more say in their working conditions and therefore

0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:24.320
<v Speaker 1>in their lives, and that there is no one particular

0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:28.520
<v Speaker 1>thing that Starbucks could solve that would make them go

0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:33.280
<v Speaker 1>back to being okay with the company having all the control.

0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:36.840
<v Speaker 1>And where does where do things stand with Schultz? Because

0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.840
<v Speaker 1>as you write, this is not a He's not permanently

0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:42.320
<v Speaker 1>CEO right now, right He's just back on an entering basis.

0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:46.680
<v Speaker 1>So where where will this dispute go? That's what they've said.

0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.080
<v Speaker 1>There's supposed to be a permanent announcement in the fall.

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:53.880
<v Speaker 1>There are some people hoping that Schultz stays on. But

0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:58.560
<v Speaker 1>it is a fight that is deeply personal for Howard Schultz.

0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:02.600
<v Speaker 1>This is his baby, and he has come back and

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:08.879
<v Speaker 1>made these personal appeals to workers, sometimes emotionally intensely, and

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:10.920
<v Speaker 1>as we see in the rooms that we go into

0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:14.400
<v Speaker 1>in this story, and so this is not a struggle

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:16.800
<v Speaker 1>that he's going to be able to shrug off. Whether

0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.240
<v Speaker 1>he's in the CEO seat or not, and some other

0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:22.159
<v Speaker 1>companies watching this very very closely. Um, Josh, thank you

0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.600
<v Speaker 1>so much, really appreciate it. Josh Idelson, He's labor reporter

0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News. This is the cover story of the

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 1>new issue of Bloomberg Business Week on newsstands right now,

0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg and of course online. Till Webber, he

0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 1>is the editor of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. This is

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:39.560
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes

0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:43.080
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So Tim and I were

0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:45.000
<v Speaker 1>at the Milk and Institute Global Conference last week. We

0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:47.840
<v Speaker 1>talked a lot about the Market's big topic touched on

0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:50.080
<v Speaker 1>and so many panels and conversation was E S G.

0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:52.199
<v Speaker 1>So we're going to get into that along with the

0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.440
<v Speaker 1>macro environment with our guest. Great to be talking once

0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:58.159
<v Speaker 1>again with us is Dave Getland. Excuse me, Dave Getlind

0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:01.119
<v Speaker 1>chairman and CEO Carrier Global. You know, the company for

0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:04.760
<v Speaker 1>making HVAC systems, refrigeration, so many different things that certainly

0:20:04.760 --> 0:20:07.240
<v Speaker 1>affect all of us on a daily basis. And he's

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:09.679
<v Speaker 1>here in our Interactive Broker studio how are you. I'm

0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 1>doing great. Thank you for having me. It's great to

0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:14.560
<v Speaker 1>have you here. Dave, and I do think about Tim

0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:16.680
<v Speaker 1>and I were just talking. I mentioned when you walked

0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.880
<v Speaker 1>in that we're watching the volatility in the market. Uh,

0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:22.199
<v Speaker 1>and we're seeing so many asset classes come undone, it

0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:24.840
<v Speaker 1>feels like, but in a controlled way. And yet we

0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:28.440
<v Speaker 1>just talked to the CEO of Tapestry. She was calm, said,

0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.920
<v Speaker 1>consumers are spending. She was optimistic. How do you see

0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:34.359
<v Speaker 1>the environment, how do you kind of cross that with

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.560
<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing in the financial markets. We feel the

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.360
<v Speaker 1>same way. We feel very confident in where we are

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 1>and where we're going. And a big part of it

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 1>has to do with the secular trends you mentioned like E.

0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:46.119
<v Speaker 1>S G. But we looked at our first quarter orders

0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:50.480
<v Speaker 1>were up ten percent. Our backlog is up over thirty

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:53.919
<v Speaker 1>percent versus last year. So demand has continued to be

0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.800
<v Speaker 1>very strong. Backlog up because of supply chain problems are

0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.119
<v Speaker 1>just demands. Well partly we have some overdoke because the

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:01.399
<v Speaker 1>supply chain, but it's really because it demand. Our orders

0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:04.320
<v Speaker 1>have been strong multiple quarters in a row. They continue

0:21:04.359 --> 0:21:07.080
<v Speaker 1>to be strong. United States is very strong. Europe continues.

0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:09.040
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of anxiety about Europe, but if you

0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 1>were to be in one of our internal meetings, you'd

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:14.120
<v Speaker 1>be very bullish on Europe. Orders across our portfolio continue

0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:17.439
<v Speaker 1>to be very strong. We have obviously a watch like

0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 1>others on China, but demand in our residential business, large

0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:24.800
<v Speaker 1>commercial are like commercial business which is h VACT for

0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:28.600
<v Speaker 1>things like K through twelve very very strong in United

0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:31.359
<v Speaker 1>States retail with people coming back, So we do see

0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:34.040
<v Speaker 1>very very strong demand right now. Would you say that

0:21:34.080 --> 0:21:38.040
<v Speaker 1>the primary driver of demand is reopening, that desire for

0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:40.880
<v Speaker 1>businesses and schools to make sure that they have clean

0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:43.160
<v Speaker 1>and healthy air for the people who are in their buildings.

0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:44.800
<v Speaker 1>That's a big piece of it. If you take K

0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:49.080
<v Speaker 1>through twelve, it's a vertical that's traditionally been starved for capital,

0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:50.840
<v Speaker 1>and all of a sudden in the last in the

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:53.280
<v Speaker 1>last year, they've been given a hundred and ninety billion

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.720
<v Speaker 1>dollars in governments, yes, by the US government, and it

0:21:56.760 --> 0:21:59.960
<v Speaker 1>comes in three essays. The last essay is a billion

0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:02.080
<v Speaker 1>that's going to be spent over these next few years,

0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:03.439
<v Speaker 1>and a good chunk of that's going to go to

0:22:03.600 --> 0:22:06.160
<v Speaker 1>h v A C. Because it's not only to build

0:22:06.160 --> 0:22:10.600
<v Speaker 1>more energy efficient, more sustainable type solutions. But schools are

0:22:10.680 --> 0:22:12.800
<v Speaker 1>very aware of the criticality of the health of the

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:15.240
<v Speaker 1>indoor environment. And that's what COVID has really done is

0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:18.359
<v Speaker 1>shine a light on the criticality of having safe and

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 1>healthy indoor environments if you're in a school system. It

0:22:20.920 --> 0:22:24.040
<v Speaker 1>not only helps prevent a spread of airborne illnesses like

0:22:24.160 --> 0:22:27.399
<v Speaker 1>COVID one and thirteen kids have asthma, and then you

0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>also look at kids test better when you have lower

0:22:29.840 --> 0:22:32.640
<v Speaker 1>CEO two levels. So there's multiple benefits and a lot

0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:35.040
<v Speaker 1>of that spending is going so our k through twelve

0:22:35.160 --> 0:22:39.280
<v Speaker 1>orders in the first quarter of So are we all

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Dave looking at things differently post pandemic about because we

0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:44.919
<v Speaker 1>understand air quality really makes a difference. Or is it

0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:46.880
<v Speaker 1>just something that Okay, we were worried about the pandemic

0:22:46.960 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 1>and we're not so worried now. Are you saying that?

0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 1>Are you seeing that kind of as a sustained concern

0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 1>and then a sustained upgrade, you know, And I think

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:56.919
<v Speaker 1>what's happened is you can see there's a certain amount

0:22:56.920 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 1>of anxiety when people go into very crowded indoor environments.

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:03.680
<v Speaker 1>Your shoulders, shoulders, so we're very confident that it's sustained.

0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:06.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, if you take bottle water in the United States,

0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:09.720
<v Speaker 1>people spend thirty six billion dollars on bottle water when

0:23:09.760 --> 0:23:13.280
<v Speaker 1>it's free. And what's happened is people are sensitized to

0:23:13.440 --> 0:23:16.200
<v Speaker 1>that's a safer way to drink water. What's going to

0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:19.719
<v Speaker 1>happen with health errors? Because it's invisible, people don't know

0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:22.280
<v Speaker 1>whether or not it's safe. Our job is to make

0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:24.720
<v Speaker 1>air visible. And what we're selling now is a new

0:23:24.760 --> 0:23:27.880
<v Speaker 1>digital platform we call abound, which can make air visible.

0:23:28.000 --> 0:23:31.479
<v Speaker 1>It's an aggregated scorecard of whether or not the air

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:33.800
<v Speaker 1>that you're breathing is safe. And our goal is to

0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 1>make that ubiquitous. So when you come into bloomberg Er,

0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:38.920
<v Speaker 1>you go into a restaurant, or you go into a school,

0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:42.160
<v Speaker 1>it's an you can see it in the Atlanta Braves

0:23:42.359 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 1>Games in Truce Park. It's an aggregate score that tells

0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:47.520
<v Speaker 1>you you are in a safe and healthy indoor environment.

0:23:47.560 --> 0:23:49.760
<v Speaker 1>So that's our goal to make it sustainable is make

0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:53.480
<v Speaker 1>it visible. But this only works for HVAC systems and

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:57.080
<v Speaker 1>filtration systems that are carrier systems right. Our our system

0:23:57.160 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 1>can work with others as well. Like it can overlay

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:02.520
<v Speaker 1>with any ones building management system or anyone else's equipment.

0:24:02.560 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 1>It's a it's a digital tool that we've launched in

0:24:04.880 --> 0:24:08.479
<v Speaker 1>partnership with AWS to really make it so you know,

0:24:08.560 --> 0:24:11.480
<v Speaker 1>in anywhere we can attach the sensors and collect the data.

0:24:11.600 --> 0:24:14.119
<v Speaker 1>It looks at CEO two levels, particular matter rate on

0:24:14.160 --> 0:24:16.480
<v Speaker 1>t V O C. So it's a way to kind

0:24:16.480 --> 0:24:18.880
<v Speaker 1>of get data and make it visible so you get

0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:21.160
<v Speaker 1>confident to go back indoors. How much of what you're

0:24:21.160 --> 0:24:23.800
<v Speaker 1>doing is upgrades of existing systems day versus what you're

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:26.119
<v Speaker 1>what is new construction, because I'm trying to get an

0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:28.720
<v Speaker 1>idea of construction that's going on right now. Well in

0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 1>the large in the large commercial side, it's seventy new

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:35.639
<v Speaker 1>construction and replacement. And if we look at that space,

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:38.560
<v Speaker 1>we look at the Architectural Building Index because that's a

0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:41.760
<v Speaker 1>six month leading indicator of people work on architectural designs

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:44.600
<v Speaker 1>and advance of course of construction and the A B

0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:46.560
<v Speaker 1>I you want that to be north of fifty. It's

0:24:46.600 --> 0:24:49.080
<v Speaker 1>been north of fourteen months in a row. So there

0:24:49.160 --> 0:24:53.760
<v Speaker 1>is demand for large commercial buildings in the residential and

0:24:53.840 --> 0:24:56.879
<v Speaker 1>light commercial space. It's the reverse, it's eight percent. Replacement

0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:01.320
<v Speaker 1>and new construction and residential has and residential for US

0:25:01.359 --> 0:25:04.920
<v Speaker 1>was up over in the first quarter. Like commercial, which

0:25:04.960 --> 0:25:07.760
<v Speaker 1>is things like data centers, retail K through twelve that

0:25:07.840 --> 0:25:10.639
<v Speaker 1>was up over in the first quarter, So very strong

0:25:10.720 --> 0:25:13.000
<v Speaker 1>demand in that particular vertical. All right, I'm gonna go

0:25:13.040 --> 0:25:16.479
<v Speaker 1>back to you sound positive and optimistic. So I'm trying

0:25:16.520 --> 0:25:19.200
<v Speaker 1>to figure out where we are in this economic cycle.

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:22.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think there is this there's this anxiety

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:26.560
<v Speaker 1>that is very understandable because obviously with the inflation we've

0:25:26.560 --> 0:25:29.479
<v Speaker 1>seen people know that leads to rate increases, which typically

0:25:29.480 --> 0:25:32.720
<v Speaker 1>slows in economy. So you can understand the anxiety. But

0:25:32.840 --> 0:25:35.080
<v Speaker 1>when you kind of go back to things like secular

0:25:35.119 --> 0:25:37.919
<v Speaker 1>trends that we know there's going to be demand for

0:25:37.960 --> 0:25:41.920
<v Speaker 1>things like more energy efficient HVAC systems. So in Europe

0:25:42.280 --> 0:25:44.720
<v Speaker 1>are orders for heat pumps, for commercial heat pumps, where

0:25:44.720 --> 0:25:46.680
<v Speaker 1>were the market leader, They were up thirty percent in

0:25:46.720 --> 0:25:50.480
<v Speaker 1>the first quarter. As Europe weans itself off Russian gas,

0:25:50.840 --> 0:25:52.920
<v Speaker 1>you know there's going to be more demand for systems

0:25:53.000 --> 0:25:56.199
<v Speaker 1>like heat pumps. You know that if you're if your

0:25:56.240 --> 0:25:58.840
<v Speaker 1>air conditioner fails when it's hot, it's going to be replaced.

0:25:59.040 --> 0:26:03.719
<v Speaker 1>You know, people spend more time at home hopefully car no, don't, yes,

0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:09.920
<v Speaker 1>hopefully get so that you can help the quarter care.

0:26:11.640 --> 0:26:13.960
<v Speaker 1>What you say is like it was an old system

0:26:14.080 --> 0:26:16.440
<v Speaker 1>twenty years or so, and it's much more efficient. Like

0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:18.880
<v Speaker 1>it's just the technology continues to get better and better,

0:26:19.000 --> 0:26:21.600
<v Speaker 1>and we see the government require it, yes, and people

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:24.719
<v Speaker 1>in governments incentivize it. But people are also mixing up,

0:26:24.880 --> 0:26:27.959
<v Speaker 1>you know, because people spend more time at home, they

0:26:28.080 --> 0:26:30.159
<v Speaker 1>don't want it when their air conditioner goes off and on,

0:26:30.440 --> 0:26:32.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, makes that sounds. So they're actually going for

0:26:32.680 --> 0:26:36.000
<v Speaker 1>variable speed, more higher end equipment. So to your point,

0:26:36.040 --> 0:26:39.879
<v Speaker 1>there is this juxtaposition with anxiety about the future and

0:26:40.000 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 1>some secular trends like E s G and healthy indoor

0:26:43.119 --> 0:26:46.680
<v Speaker 1>environments are rising middle class globally, only seven per cent

0:26:47.000 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 1>of people in India have air conditioning and it's a

0:26:48.880 --> 0:26:51.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty hot country, you know, at one point four billion people.

0:26:51.280 --> 0:26:54.680
<v Speaker 1>So you can see that these forces coming together that's

0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:57.800
<v Speaker 1>driving demand. Our challenge. We both want to ask you

0:26:57.920 --> 0:27:02.240
<v Speaker 1>questions change what signs are you seeing of Like you're

0:27:02.240 --> 0:27:05.000
<v Speaker 1>putting systems in places you never thought you'd put air conditioning,

0:27:05.400 --> 0:27:07.359
<v Speaker 1>Like that just speaks to kind of what's going on

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:11.000
<v Speaker 1>in our environment globally. Yeah, you know what's really encouraging

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:14.800
<v Speaker 1>is the continued trend around around heat pumps, in particular

0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:18.080
<v Speaker 1>for h v A C systems so UM in in Europe,

0:27:18.640 --> 0:27:22.119
<v Speaker 1>almost all new construction is going to heat pumps in

0:27:22.160 --> 0:27:25.919
<v Speaker 1>Europe for residential we're seeing in the United States States

0:27:26.040 --> 0:27:29.680
<v Speaker 1>like South Carolina by more they look at we look

0:27:29.720 --> 0:27:32.760
<v Speaker 1>at their heat pump where they sell heatpumps with UM

0:27:33.080 --> 0:27:35.919
<v Speaker 1>connected to their split system versus a cooling only. They

0:27:35.960 --> 0:27:38.480
<v Speaker 1>sell more integrated heat pumps than they do cool and only.

0:27:38.640 --> 0:27:41.480
<v Speaker 1>So the demand for heatpumps in the United States and

0:27:41.520 --> 0:27:46.080
<v Speaker 1>globally is going up exponentially. More energy efficient solutions in

0:27:46.160 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 1>the United States next year, there's gonna be the entire

0:27:49.840 --> 0:27:52.440
<v Speaker 1>country is going to a switch to higher serre units

0:27:52.480 --> 0:27:55.520
<v Speaker 1>in the South fourteen and fifteen, North thirteen and fourteen.

0:27:55.640 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>So governments globally are incentivizing their populations to have more

0:28:00.359 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>energy efficient solutions, and that's what we do. So that's

0:28:03.560 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 1>why there is this overall anxiety. But when you have

0:28:06.440 --> 0:28:09.720
<v Speaker 1>things that impact can make a meaningful impact on climate change,

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:12.080
<v Speaker 1>that there's going to be demand. If there's going to

0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:14.480
<v Speaker 1>be things that impact health and wellness. There is going

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:17.520
<v Speaker 1>to be demand there. There is this overarching anxiety. But

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:20.000
<v Speaker 1>at the same time you do sound really optimistic, as

0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:22.359
<v Speaker 1>as Carol said, but there is a lot to be

0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.960
<v Speaker 1>concerned about. We've got concerns about the recession here in

0:28:25.960 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 1>the United States that milk, and we heard a lot

0:28:27.760 --> 0:28:30.119
<v Speaker 1>about a potential recession in Europe and concerned about the

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:33.159
<v Speaker 1>customer in Europe. What what keeps you up at night?

0:28:33.280 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 1>What concerns you right now? Our biggest challenges keeping up

0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:40.160
<v Speaker 1>with the demand. So clearly we understand the concerns around recessions.

0:28:40.840 --> 0:28:43.720
<v Speaker 1>Um and you know, we all kind of read about it,

0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:46.239
<v Speaker 1>and you can understand some of the underlying reasons why

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:49.440
<v Speaker 1>there is that anxiety. But canceling orders, no one's canceling

0:28:49.560 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 1>orders are demand has you know, our biggest challenge right

0:28:52.520 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>now is truly keep you know, we have chip shortages.

0:28:54.840 --> 0:28:58.120
<v Speaker 1>We're working around the clock to rectify those. But as

0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:01.440
<v Speaker 1>we operationally perform, we're making share because we're able to

0:29:01.480 --> 0:29:04.200
<v Speaker 1>support our customers better than some of our peers. We

0:29:04.320 --> 0:29:07.080
<v Speaker 1>are managing inflation. We came into the year saying that

0:29:07.360 --> 0:29:10.320
<v Speaker 1>we would get a five percent price increase, a billion

0:29:10.360 --> 0:29:13.360
<v Speaker 1>dollars on twenty billion of sales in anticipation of a

0:29:13.440 --> 0:29:16.400
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of inflation. The only good news with the

0:29:16.440 --> 0:29:19.480
<v Speaker 1>anxiety that folks have about the economy is some of

0:29:19.520 --> 0:29:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the commodities have recently been coming down, copper, steel, aluminums.

0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:25.440
<v Speaker 1>So if we can keep prices at the at the

0:29:25.600 --> 0:29:27.880
<v Speaker 1>raised levels that we've done, and if we get some

0:29:28.000 --> 0:29:30.400
<v Speaker 1>relief on some of the commodities, that should drop through

0:29:30.440 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 1>with some margins. Date based on what you're seeing in

0:29:32.680 --> 0:29:34.600
<v Speaker 1>terms of commodities, I thought that was a really important point.

0:29:34.680 --> 0:29:38.400
<v Speaker 1>Do you think we have hit peak inflation? Um? It's

0:29:38.440 --> 0:29:41.000
<v Speaker 1>hard to call that because I you know, every time

0:29:41.040 --> 0:29:43.240
<v Speaker 1>we feel like it's peak inflation, the next quarters worse.

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:46.960
<v Speaker 1>So UM, I could tell you that. Um, we have

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 1>seen over the last few weeks some relief, but it's

0:29:49.760 --> 0:29:51.760
<v Speaker 1>really hard to anticipate what's going to happen a few

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 1>quarters from now. You know, we've been able to now

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 1>stay out in front of bits. So we've been very,

0:29:57.240 --> 0:30:00.720
<v Speaker 1>very aggressive because last year we came. Last year we

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:03.120
<v Speaker 1>chased inflation all the year with pricing. This year we

0:30:03.200 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 1>said we are not going to chase inflation. We are

0:30:05.680 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 1>going to get out in front from pricing. We have

0:30:07.400 --> 0:30:10.200
<v Speaker 1>get pricing in the first quarter, and we're very confident

0:30:10.280 --> 0:30:12.400
<v Speaker 1>that we will do very well on the pricing side

0:30:12.480 --> 0:30:15.240
<v Speaker 1>this year. Dave, very briefly fifteen seconds. Our high energy

0:30:15.280 --> 0:30:17.720
<v Speaker 1>prices actually good for you because it compels people to

0:30:17.800 --> 0:30:21.120
<v Speaker 1>upgrade their systems to more efficient ones. Yes, that does. Overall,

0:30:21.200 --> 0:30:24.560
<v Speaker 1>that does drive demand for more energy efficient solutions, which

0:30:24.640 --> 0:30:27.080
<v Speaker 1>is actually good for our business. It's the only business

0:30:27.160 --> 0:30:29.880
<v Speaker 1>where more from oil and energy companies. Right, you have

0:30:29.960 --> 0:30:31.640
<v Speaker 1>to think about that, right, You've got to really think

0:30:31.640 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>about how all the different markets. Um, Dave, thank you

0:30:33.920 --> 0:30:36.680
<v Speaker 1>so much, really appreciated, Dave. Gitlin Sherman, CEO a carrier

0:30:36.800 --> 0:30:40.840
<v Speaker 1>joining us here in our studio. You're listening to Bloomberg

0:30:40.920 --> 0:30:44.560
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

0:30:44.680 --> 0:30:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, we have about ten

0:30:48.680 --> 0:30:51.520
<v Speaker 1>minutes left in today's trading session. Man, talk about a

0:30:51.560 --> 0:30:55.560
<v Speaker 1>volatile one once again. Up down, up down. Yeah, it's

0:30:55.560 --> 0:30:57.440
<v Speaker 1>a seesaw market, is how I'm going to describe it.

0:30:57.680 --> 0:31:00.080
<v Speaker 1>We're definitely off our lows, as we just heard from Charly,

0:31:00.680 --> 0:31:03.920
<v Speaker 1>and really interesting to see investors coming back into the market.

0:31:03.960 --> 0:31:05.600
<v Speaker 1>And I think this is the trade we continue to

0:31:05.640 --> 0:31:07.880
<v Speaker 1>see tim as investors trying to figure out, at least

0:31:07.880 --> 0:31:10.120
<v Speaker 1>on the equity side of things, where is the body. Yeah,

0:31:10.160 --> 0:31:12.080
<v Speaker 1>that's exactly what we talked about with Equities Reporter, just

0:31:12.240 --> 0:31:14.760
<v Speaker 1>meant in a little earlier sharing with us some key technicals,

0:31:14.840 --> 0:31:17.480
<v Speaker 1>but we are above those technicals at least as of today.

0:31:17.560 --> 0:31:19.800
<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it with Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment

0:31:19.880 --> 0:31:23.120
<v Speaker 1>officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. Chris joined us once again

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:25.280
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Chris, how are

0:31:25.360 --> 0:31:28.160
<v Speaker 1>you doing well? Doing well? Thanks for having me back.

0:31:28.280 --> 0:31:30.600
<v Speaker 1>Are you doing well? This market has been pretty tough

0:31:30.680 --> 0:31:33.719
<v Speaker 1>for a lot of people. Well, I mean, I think

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:37.280
<v Speaker 1>the market has been a challenge, absolutely, and clearly we've

0:31:37.320 --> 0:31:39.560
<v Speaker 1>had a lot of volatility, but I think it's not

0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:42.200
<v Speaker 1>completely unexpected, you know, given what I had A reserve

0:31:42.320 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 1>needs to do you to get inflation on our control.

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:47.120
<v Speaker 1>We can't say we're surprised, but obviously we'd love to

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:49.760
<v Speaker 1>get through this period of market turbulence as quickly as

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:52.360
<v Speaker 1>we can. Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do to control it,

0:31:52.440 --> 0:31:55.000
<v Speaker 1>so we just have to ride through the volatility or

0:31:55.080 --> 0:31:57.160
<v Speaker 1>in the fifth week of that market volatility. So here

0:31:57.240 --> 0:32:00.600
<v Speaker 1>we go two. Uh, what is it out there on

0:32:00.680 --> 0:32:03.520
<v Speaker 1>the horizon? Fundamentally that maybe gives you hope that you

0:32:03.560 --> 0:32:06.960
<v Speaker 1>see some sign of a conclusion at some point later

0:32:07.080 --> 0:32:10.080
<v Speaker 1>on this year, or do you feel like the visibility

0:32:10.160 --> 0:32:13.160
<v Speaker 1>is not so great right now? Well, I think we're

0:32:13.200 --> 0:32:15.000
<v Speaker 1>definitely in the bearer market. You know, clearly we're not

0:32:15.120 --> 0:32:17.960
<v Speaker 1>in the technical definition of downs from the all time

0:32:18.080 --> 0:32:20.680
<v Speaker 1>high on the SMP, although we continue we got really

0:32:20.720 --> 0:32:24.440
<v Speaker 1>close today, Yeah we did, we did absolutely um, but

0:32:24.600 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, ultimately we think about it in terms of

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:28.840
<v Speaker 1>this kind of qualitatively. You know, the the idea of

0:32:28.880 --> 0:32:31.280
<v Speaker 1>a buyer market is that investors to see everything as

0:32:31.560 --> 0:32:34.120
<v Speaker 1>glass half empty, and that's clearly where you're where we

0:32:34.200 --> 0:32:37.160
<v Speaker 1>are now. Some things that would give us confidence on

0:32:37.240 --> 0:32:39.880
<v Speaker 1>the positive side of things is that, you know, the

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:43.760
<v Speaker 1>consumers still has a lot of cash on their balance sheet. Uh,

0:32:43.920 --> 0:32:47.880
<v Speaker 1>companies are are equally pretty well capitalized, and so we're

0:32:47.960 --> 0:32:50.120
<v Speaker 1>heading into a more difficult time where the feed is

0:32:50.200 --> 0:32:53.520
<v Speaker 1>raising interest rates, but the economy for all intensive purposes,

0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 1>with the exception of obviously inflation being a challenge, is

0:32:56.440 --> 0:32:58.840
<v Speaker 1>still on pretty strong footing. So for that reason, we

0:32:59.120 --> 0:33:00.960
<v Speaker 1>feel pretty confident that you're not going to see a

0:33:01.000 --> 0:33:03.600
<v Speaker 1>recession this year, now, next year, or the year after.

0:33:03.760 --> 0:33:07.160
<v Speaker 1>Obviously that's anyone's guests, and unfortunately, as the Fed begins

0:33:07.240 --> 0:33:10.600
<v Speaker 1>raising interest rates, the probability recession increases. But as far

0:33:10.640 --> 0:33:13.160
<v Speaker 1>as from a positive point of view, the idea that

0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:15.280
<v Speaker 1>we're not going to have a recession this year could

0:33:15.320 --> 0:33:17.800
<v Speaker 1>potentially provide a floor under the SMP and and we

0:33:17.880 --> 0:33:21.800
<v Speaker 1>won't drop through um pique, the trough um drop the

0:33:21.840 --> 0:33:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you typically see with a bear bear market that the

0:33:23.920 --> 0:33:26.120
<v Speaker 1>companies work. Yeah, Vincent derelebrating the Fed is not, as

0:33:26.160 --> 0:33:28.200
<v Speaker 1>critics like to say, behind the curved, is actually way

0:33:28.200 --> 0:33:29.920
<v Speaker 1>ahead of it, and as such, on the verge of

0:33:29.960 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 1>a major policy mistake. So he's certainly concerned about the

0:33:33.520 --> 0:33:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Fed over doing it. You mentioned Chris consumer balance sheets,

0:33:38.040 --> 0:33:41.880
<v Speaker 1>and yes they are flesh and heaven flushed because of

0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:46.560
<v Speaker 1>all of the government stimulus. But that's not gonna last forever. Yeah,

0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:48.720
<v Speaker 1>that's absolutely right. And actually, if you think about it,

0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:50.720
<v Speaker 1>part of the reason why we have the inflation problem

0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 1>we have now is because there's so much cash in

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:55.160
<v Speaker 1>the system, whether that's from the federal government spending or

0:33:55.160 --> 0:33:58.080
<v Speaker 1>whether that's from the Fed reserves balant sheet. Clearly all

0:33:58.120 --> 0:34:01.840
<v Speaker 1>of that fiscal and monetary stimulus provided the precondition such

0:34:01.960 --> 0:34:04.720
<v Speaker 1>that you know, supply chain issues, need other things that

0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:08.000
<v Speaker 1>eventually started started the process. Going not to mention the

0:34:08.040 --> 0:34:12.000
<v Speaker 1>war in Ukraine, but ultimately with all that cash, it

0:34:12.120 --> 0:34:15.680
<v Speaker 1>does set the seats, or does set the tone for inflation,

0:34:15.760 --> 0:34:18.080
<v Speaker 1>and so at some point consumers are are going to

0:34:18.120 --> 0:34:20.680
<v Speaker 1>need to pair back on what they're purchasing. They're gonna

0:34:20.680 --> 0:34:23.239
<v Speaker 1>have to make harder decisions. Ultimately, it just won't be

0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:26.160
<v Speaker 1>a blanket statement that the entire stock markets you go down.

0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:28.200
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna have to pick winners and losers. You're gonna

0:34:28.200 --> 0:34:30.239
<v Speaker 1>have to look at those companies that are likely to

0:34:30.400 --> 0:34:32.640
<v Speaker 1>be to have pricing power and to be able to

0:34:32.719 --> 0:34:34.520
<v Speaker 1>make it through a recession if there is one. And

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:36.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that's what we're looking ahead to, not just

0:34:36.880 --> 0:34:39.560
<v Speaker 1>watching the market as a whole, but looking at, you know,

0:34:39.680 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 1>a market of stocks instead of just a stock market. Well, well, Chris,

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:45.920
<v Speaker 1>help us understand how you're thinking about opportunities right now?

0:34:46.080 --> 0:34:47.560
<v Speaker 1>Are you putting cash to work? And where are you

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:51.680
<v Speaker 1>putting cash to work? So we've bringised a good amount

0:34:51.719 --> 0:34:54.040
<v Speaker 1>of cash earlier this year in the concerns that we'd

0:34:54.040 --> 0:34:56.759
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of volatility, we've been slowly putting cash

0:34:56.840 --> 0:35:00.120
<v Speaker 1>to work. I think, unlike in where there was v

0:35:00.239 --> 0:35:02.120
<v Speaker 1>shape recovery and it would have been very difficult to

0:35:02.160 --> 0:35:04.960
<v Speaker 1>put cash back to work, this has obviously been a slower,

0:35:05.560 --> 0:35:08.439
<v Speaker 1>slower process, and as Carol mentioned, you know, we're five

0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:11.200
<v Speaker 1>weeks since of volatility. We think this entire year will

0:35:11.200 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>probably be full of volatility because ultimately the volatility is

0:35:14.200 --> 0:35:18.960
<v Speaker 1>being caused by uncertainty around inflation, uncertainty around set policy,

0:35:19.239 --> 0:35:21.879
<v Speaker 1>and then ultimately uncertainty about growth, and we don't think

0:35:21.880 --> 0:35:24.040
<v Speaker 1>any of those things will resolve in the near term,

0:35:24.239 --> 0:35:26.040
<v Speaker 1>so there's gonna be a volatility. We do you think

0:35:26.040 --> 0:35:28.600
<v Speaker 1>there's opportunities for the market to bounce, as I point

0:35:28.640 --> 0:35:29.840
<v Speaker 1>out in the note, so I think there's been a

0:35:29.880 --> 0:35:31.799
<v Speaker 1>lot of bear market rallies that have been very sharp.

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 1>As far as the things that we've slowly been putting

0:35:34.160 --> 0:35:36.120
<v Speaker 1>back into the market, we've been looking a little bit

0:35:36.120 --> 0:35:40.239
<v Speaker 1>more defensive positions in terms of healthcare providers, where things

0:35:40.320 --> 0:35:42.200
<v Speaker 1>that we think will make it through recession, and we've

0:35:42.200 --> 0:35:45.320
<v Speaker 1>added a little bit more cyclicality as energy and some

0:35:45.480 --> 0:35:48.319
<v Speaker 1>of those commodity complexes has sold off in recent days

0:35:48.320 --> 0:35:50.320
<v Speaker 1>on growth ears. We've added a little bit more to

0:35:50.400 --> 0:35:52.719
<v Speaker 1>our portfolio because we think inflation will be a little

0:35:52.719 --> 0:35:55.120
<v Speaker 1>bit more persistent that people are thinking even though the

0:35:55.160 --> 0:35:57.319
<v Speaker 1>fet is raising rates, not hearing any of the high

0:35:57.320 --> 0:36:02.440
<v Speaker 1>flying tech names. Now. We we we reduced a lot

0:36:02.520 --> 0:36:05.280
<v Speaker 1>of our tech exposure last year. We definitely were concerned

0:36:05.600 --> 0:36:08.520
<v Speaker 1>not only evaluations, but also have the idea that you know,

0:36:08.640 --> 0:36:12.440
<v Speaker 1>tech and some of those longer duration assets so to speak. Um,

0:36:12.760 --> 0:36:15.320
<v Speaker 1>we're doing very well at a low interest rate environment

0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:17.200
<v Speaker 1>and they've had they've had, you know, tail winds for

0:36:17.280 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 1>over thirty years. But we did think we were going

0:36:19.320 --> 0:36:21.680
<v Speaker 1>to move into a new regime of interest rates moving higher,

0:36:21.960 --> 0:36:24.080
<v Speaker 1>and as such we paired a lot of those a

0:36:24.200 --> 0:36:27.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of those positions. By no means are we underweight technology,

0:36:28.040 --> 0:36:31.200
<v Speaker 1>but we had naturally gotten overweight technologies I think everyone else.

0:36:31.239 --> 0:36:33.520
<v Speaker 1>That's just from the market appreciation, and so we just

0:36:33.640 --> 0:36:35.560
<v Speaker 1>rebalanced in order to bring that back to a more

0:36:35.680 --> 0:36:39.400
<v Speaker 1>market weight rather than necessarily a market overweight. And so obviously,

0:36:39.600 --> 0:36:41.959
<v Speaker 1>given the way things have happened this year, that's turned

0:36:41.960 --> 0:36:44.279
<v Speaker 1>out to be a good thing. But if we do

0:36:44.360 --> 0:36:47.080
<v Speaker 1>add into recession, which we do think is likely in

0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:50.200
<v Speaker 1>the next year or two, some of those technology names,

0:36:50.400 --> 0:36:52.359
<v Speaker 1>like the ones that you're seeing selling out today, those

0:36:52.440 --> 0:36:55.480
<v Speaker 1>really big tap cap tech, the ones that have great

0:36:55.520 --> 0:36:58.640
<v Speaker 1>balance sheets, that have pricing power, that have a you know,

0:36:58.760 --> 0:37:01.399
<v Speaker 1>really great business model, they're the ones that are likely

0:37:01.480 --> 0:37:03.560
<v Speaker 1>to probably do well for the next resession. So that's

0:37:03.560 --> 0:37:06.200
<v Speaker 1>the can underm. I think people find themselves in all right,

0:37:06.239 --> 0:37:08.200
<v Speaker 1>Gonna leave it there. Hey, Chris, thank you so much.

0:37:08.320 --> 0:37:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Chris Scarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance. They

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:15.400
<v Speaker 1>are a registered investment advisor, and he joined us on

0:37:15.480 --> 0:37:18.920
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks for listening to

0:37:18.960 --> 0:37:22.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or

0:37:22.560 --> 0:37:24.719
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0:37:24.800 --> 0:37:27.400
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0:37:27.440 --> 0:37:30.080
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