WEBVTT - Upgrading the world’s biggest machine: The Grid Series 0:00:00.360 --> 0:00:04.440 Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati this week the world's 0:00:04.640 --> 0:00:20.360 biggest machine. I often think as a reporter that you know, 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.159 when you think about fossil fuels, people kind of know 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.200 what coal looks like, what oil looks like, you know 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:31.200 what gas burns like. But electricity is something that people 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:35.479 don't have a very intuitive grasp on. Yes it comes 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:37.800 out of a plug, and yes it powers a lot 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:42.080 of our lives now, But how does it move? How 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:45.400 do you make it move? How do you manage its movement? 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:50.040 It is a mysterious form of energy even today, even 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.519 though we've been using it at scale for one hundred 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:58.840 plus years. I'm just curious. 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:05.840 Yeah, yeah, I was moved. That was poetic. I think. 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:07.640 I think you're exactly right. And this is part of 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.800 what drew me to this sector to begin with. It's everywhere, 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:12.840 all at once, and not to be seen at the 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.080 same time. There's like often it now. 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:19.200 I don't believe in God, and I'm trying to understand 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.040 why I launched him to a sermon with this week's guest. 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:26.680 I think it's because I'm obsessed with electricity these days, 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:30.959 in all its mysterious beauty, and for the next three episodes, 0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:34.080 we are going to bring you conversations about the machine 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:38.839 that brings you electricity, the world's biggest machine, the grid. 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:43.039 This week we talked to Sunjit Sanghera, who you just 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:46.440 heard from. He is now the head of Strategic Futures 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:49.360 at the National Grid, but I caught up with him 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:52.360 in his last days at Bloomberg ne EF, where he 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:56.840 was an expert on grids. Sunjeet is an electrical engineer 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:00.720 and someone who worked in grid control rooms, and who 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.880 better to help us understand this beast of a machine 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:07.720 that needs to get bigger and more complex as we 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:24.320 get to zero emissions. Sanji, Welcome to. 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.120 The show, Hi Action, Thanks for having me. 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.240 Now, when we talk about grids, people probably think of 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:35.560 big cables and pylons. That's the visual side of grids 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.799 that I think people are aware of. But grids are 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:42.040 a lot more than just those pylons and cables. What 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:45.240 are quote unquote invisible parts of the grid. 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.799 Yeah. When I picture the grids, I picture driving on 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:50.720 a long road trip in Canada. On the side of 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:55.520 the highway, you'd see these power lines stringing across the countryside, 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.400 and I remember thinking like, we can't possibly be connecting 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:02.200 everything together with these That is exactly what we're doing, 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:05.519 is we're connecting everything together with these wires. So I 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:09.200 think networks really are important, and it may seem a 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:12.560 bit old school or kind of a legacy thing that 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.240 we're gonna you know, we have aluminum and copper wires 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.720 taking power from where it's being produced ultimately where it's 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:22.720 being consumed. But like, networks underpin a lot of the 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.239 way that the world works, and it also underpins a 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.040 lot of the transformations that we've had in the world. 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.160 So if we look at like roads or railroads or 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.480 even the internet, there's there's always a network sitting at 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:34.920 the center. And so in the energy space there are 0:03:34.960 --> 0:03:38.440 networks too, and we have really two segments of networks. 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:42.600 So we have the transmission grid and the distribution grid, 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:45.920 and there's a semi arbitrary distinction between them. There's a 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:48.920 really like technical term of like voltage that distinguishes them. 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.360 But really one is the highway system that moves power 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.960 really far distances, and one is this kind of distribution 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:58.400 grid that moves power more within communities, and it's a 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:01.520 crucial part of taking and energy where it ultimately needs 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.400 to be could we get away without a grid? And 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:07.640 this has been contemplated more so now that we have 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:11.040 these kind of rooftop photovoltake systems. You can put power 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:13.360 right on your home and to some extent we can 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:15.720 get rid of the grid. And this was the fantasy 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:17.919 that we thought we can maybe partaken, that we maybe 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:23.159 retire the grid entirely as renewables proliferate. Largely, what we've 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:25.599 seen is this doesn't happen, so that the markets that 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:29.440 have gone the furthest in renewable adoption have had to 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:33.040 actually double down on this infrastructure. So if you look 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:34.760 at say, for example, Germany, where they have a lot 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:38.239 of wind energy, you have these highly remote renewable energy 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.400 and you have to pump it into where the cities are. 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:44.000 Even in cities where you have a lot of solar, 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:48.440 you end up needing substantial infrastructure to backstop when the 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:52.240 sun is shining and distribute power. The function of this 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:56.760 grid has evolved, i would say, from moving power from 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:58.760 where it's produced to consume to being a bit more 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:01.599 point to point, kind of more like the internet. But 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.279 this has kind of been an evolution that we've been on. 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:06.960 And one thing we didn't talk about is the manpower 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:11.480 the people that are monitoring these substations, maybe trees falling 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:14.240 on cables. And you mentioned that you worked in a 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:16.520 control room. What does that work like. 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.600 So the people are actually a crucial part of the 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.839 grid system and they are largely invisible as well. And 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.360 so this is the people who are maintaining these infrastructures 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.520 while so literally climbing the poles and doing maintenance and 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:34.720 then they're working in the control centers while and they 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.680 play a crucial role making sure the system is operated 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:42.400 effectively and efficiently. Often have decades of experience doing this 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:46.640 for a specific market. People are retiring and that expertise 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:50.279 is leaving. Meanwhile, the challenge of operating the grid is rising, 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:53.680 and so the workforce challenges here are significant. Even in 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.320 building out the grid, there's a number of skill sets 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:02.440 around cable splicing, protection control technologists. These are very skilled 0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:05.640 jobs that take a long time to be able to 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.679 acquire the skills for and then we have retirements there. 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.640 When I worked at Utility, there was a particular job 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:15.599 where you had to shadow under a specialist engineer for 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:17.479 a decade to be qualified. 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.359 To decade shadowing for a decade. 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.640 Yeah, so it was running these detailed EMTP, these kind 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:27.200 of transient stability studies, so very technical engineering studies, and 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:29.960 the complexity of the grid when we talk about it rising, 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.479 this is part of it because the type of things 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.520 that we're connecting are very nonlinear in the way they 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:39.320 behave And so what does this mean? I think, yes, 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.200 we're going to need people, and people are often the 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:45.160 center of any transition, and skilled labor will be very 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:46.040 crucial part of this. 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.719 And there are obviously these two types of grids, the 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.359 transmission grid and the distribution grid, and you said voltage 0:06:53.440 --> 0:06:56.400 is that thing that separates them. And then there are 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.920 perhaps things that people do see, these things called substations 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.360 where these two types of grids are connected, they sort 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.920 of change the voltage. But are there other things that 0:07:07.080 --> 0:07:09.720 you know, either people should be aware of or they 0:07:09.840 --> 0:07:13.040 probably walk by and they don't think about, but are 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:14.320 also key parts of the grid. 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.400 Yeah, so substations are like the nodes, like where these 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.840 power lines meet. I think the other key attribute is 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:25.080 there's a whole layer of digital infrastructure that sits and 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:29.720 monitors the grid and make sure that when something bad happens, 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.240 and so in the grid space of something bad is 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.880 like a branch falling on top of a power line, 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:36.840 which seems like a mundane thing, but it's a very 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.280 significant thing and it happens all the time, and so 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:41.800 it needs to be managed. And so there's a layer 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:46.640 of telecommunication infrastructure that is becoming just as important and 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.600 even more invisible than the power lines themselves, because the 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:54.560 grid is becoming bidirectional and reliabilities is the top of 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:58.760 mind as we see the storms and being hammering these 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:02.040 infrastructure more and more. This is largely linear infrastructure sitting 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:05.840 highly exposed to the elements, right, and so the digital 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:09.320 infrastructure is just as important. And maybe the last bit 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:11.920 I would say that's quite invisible is the control center. 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:14.920 So this is the heart of a power grid. So 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:18.720 it's a building usually off in some remote area, and 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:21.480 you know it's like you usually just have windows, like 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:23.440 it's kind of a boring building. But this is where 0:08:23.600 --> 0:08:27.400 all of the telecommunication comes back to and decisions are 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.400 being made hour to hour, minute to minute, second to 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.760 second about what should happen on the power system. And 0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:36.079 the role that that control center is having to play 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:41.520 is changing rapidly as the number of decision points right, 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:43.720 So if you have you can imagine a power system 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:47.440 with ten generating coal plants in the old legacy days 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:52.120 now being tens of thousands of individual operating points. So 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:55.200 the role of the control center has radically changed. And 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.839 this is just an invisible building in the middle. 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:03.480 Of nowhere, and are obviously changing as technology changes, And 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:06.400 regardless of whether we had climate goals or not, there 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:08.720 would be things that we'll be done to the grid, 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:12.800 either by external forces or within the industry to change it. 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:17.120 But let's focus on the climate goals. Because BLOOMERGINIF has 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:21.440 put out its latest energy outlook and then some of 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:24.400 the numbers in there are stunning. The world will need 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.640 to nearly double its grid network to one hundred and 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:32.240 eleven million kilometers. That's a distance that's almost three quarters 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:35.160 to the Sun, and we have to do that by 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.240 twenty fifty. Now, the first grid was built in eighteen 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:44.080 eighty two in Manhattan in New York, and so for 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:48.800 net zero, we have to build as much in twenty 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.559 five years as we have done in the previous one 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:56.520 hundred and forty years. That seems like a crazy challenge 0:09:56.559 --> 0:10:00.440 to me, but for some reason it feels like the 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:02.520 grid challenge is underappreciated. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.040 Yeah, I agree, the challenge is significant. I think we've 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:13.640 just started to wake up to this challenge building wind 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:18.640 and solar and electrification. Like, this kind of narrative on 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:22.280 reaching our climate goals has been talked about for some time. 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:26.160 It's fairly well established. The power grid is kind of 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:28.720 this neutral agent, right, because you can use it to 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.520 move electrons from a coal plant or from a wind farm, 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:33.800 and so as a result, it was a bit more 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:37.720 muddied in the conversation about what its role actually was. 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:40.480 And again, like as I was saying before, there was 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:42.920 this kind of perception that maybe the grid wasn't necessary, 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:46.080 and that hasn't really borne out. What we're seeing is 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:48.360 that the network is going to be crucial and we 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.760 will have to build it out. Utilities have woken up, 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.520 governments have woken up. We're seeing this across Europe, the 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.600 US even right, and have started to really focus in 0:10:56.640 --> 0:11:00.920 on this problem of building out the electricity. If you 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:05.240 look at historically the amount of linear infrastructure we're adding 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.360 to a power grid, you know, we had years where 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:10.800 it's less than one percent per year growth rates because 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.040 largely what would happen is you'd build out the grid 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.400 and then you maintain the assets. You'd kind of go 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:18.360 into this care and maintenance era where the grid has 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.120 been built out for the size of the economy that 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.160 we have and we would mostly just take care of it. 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:25.320 But prior to that was a huge build cycle in 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.520 much of Europe right in the US, and you would 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:32.760 see these significant outlays of infrastructure happening in short time 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:37.560 frames where there was political window, the construction resources were rallied, 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:40.360 and things just got done. So what we're talking about 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.240 here is just a return to that. I don't think 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.600 it's fair to say it's anything more than something that's 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.880 been done before. I think the challenge is many markets 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:51.440 are doing it simultaneously, right, and that's because there is 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:54.840 a global nature to why we're all building out the 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.319 grid as opposed to an economic growth cycle that each 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.320 country was doing at a slightly different time. That's going 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.160 to put a constraint on resources, both people and parts 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:06.160 and metals, and so that's that's a unique challenge. But 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:09.040 in terms of coming back to what we have to 0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.200 do with building a grid, it's something we've done before 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:12.480 and it's something we need. 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:15.440 To come back to and we'll look at the regional picture, 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.880 but let's stick with the global figures because the other 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:22.640 thing about grids is that it will take a lot 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:26.600 of money. The BNF report said, if we are to 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.079 build a net zero grid, it's going to cost almost 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:32.920 twenty three trillion dollars by twenty fifty, and that is 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:35.840 two thirds of the amount that would be spent on 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:40.600 building out renewables, which again I feel like is not 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:44.320 appreciated by most people who think about net zero goals. 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:49.320 And so what specifically about a net zero grid makes 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:53.000 it more expensive than what would have been a baseline scenario. 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:57.680 Mostly it's just more, there's more of it needed, the 0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:00.600 amount of renewables, the amount of induist street that you 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:04.680 actually have to put onto the electricity grid, electrification and 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:08.440 the buildout of zero carbon power generation is what the 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.920 net zero scenario is effectively doing. So the size of 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.920 this system becomes quite large, and so there's a large 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:18.960 part of today's economy is not on the electricity grid, 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.480 whether it's you can look at your home, for example, 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.080 your car may not be on the grid, your heating 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:26.160 may not be on the grid, but yes you're lighting 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:28.880 and your power use will otherwise be on the grid. 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:31.199 So that's a third right, and so when you look 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.280 at the size of the grid that has to now 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:35.960 decarbonize this it's a significant challenge. 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:38.120 And when we talk about the cost of reaching net 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:42.520 zero they are significant. Who pays for that twenty three 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:44.480 trillion dollars rate pairs? 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:46.920 You know, so the average person is on the hook 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.920 for most of this. That counterfactual I think is actually 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.280 crucial just to dwell on that if you don't build 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.160 the grid, there are going to be costs outside of that. 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:57.160 So when you look at studies that look at what 0:13:57.200 --> 0:14:01.000 grid development does, it brings value to everyone, right, so 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.600 it'll bring down the cost of the whole system. And 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:05.400 this is part of why this is so challenging to 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.320 put into context, is because system costs analysis is just 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:11.280 a complicated thing to do to understand what's the benefit. 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:14.559 We're talking about tying everything together, and so we've done 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.000 some analysis at B ANDEF to think about what the 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:20.480 impact to rates could be that first, so that like 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:23.880 the spin cycle out to twenty fifteen is actually double peaked, right, 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.920 so there's a big rise and spend out to twenty thirty, 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.880 we think it tapers off that tapering off is more 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:32.360 heavy in Europe than it is in other markets, and 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.480 it's less pronounced even more in Asia. And then it 0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.680 picks up to an even higher peak out towards twenty 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:41.160 forty and then tapers off again. So you have these 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:45.800 two distinct spend cycles that happen. That first one, especially 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.240 in Europe, happens when there isn't that much electrified load yet, 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.120 because the electrification is a gradual thing that's happening out 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.280 to twenty fifty. So that first spend profile is really 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.960 dictated by building out this clean generation fleet, and so 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.240 there's a huge appital expenditure and there's not as many 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.600 rate pairs to pay against this capital expenditure, so that 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.200 first spend profile is going to be particularly punishing on 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.520 rate pairs. And that second cycle, which even though it's higher, 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:12.640 we think is going to be a bit of a 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.560 softer spec because there's just more consumers to distribute it over. 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.960 After the break, we'll talk about grids around the world 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.880 and their oddities. Stick with us and take a moment 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.040 to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:41.960 That will help others find it. And so now let's 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:47.800 look at regional challenges because updating grids is being approached 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.600 differently in different parts of the world because the existing 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:55.160 grid infrastructure is in different stages of development. In the 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.280 US and Europe, you said, the grids are a older 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:02.000 but also haven't seen that much demand and electricity consumption 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:05.880 in recent years, whereas in places like India and China 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.680 grids are newer, but also they have been seeing rapid 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:14.400 rise in electricity consumption. So let's start with the US. 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.880 In the twenty first century, demand has only grown between 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:22.040 one percent and two percent. That's now starting to change 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.760 with electric cars, with data centers driving AI, as we've 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:29.360 discussed on the podcast in previous episodes. So how exactly 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.720 is the US addressing this challenge. 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.680 So the US is particularly interesting because they've taken a 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.240 bit of a sharp turn. I would say this year 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.360 the Inflation Reduction Act in the US was lotted with 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.960 a lot of fanfare, but one of the missing pieces 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.920 there was thinking about the electricity grid, the transmission and 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:54.720 distribution system in any meaningful way. But now we've seen 0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.720 a number of measures move forward for Order nineteen twenty 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:02.360 in particular, are starting to address these issues with building 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:04.320 up the grid. So in the US, you have a 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:08.840 fairly piecemeal transmission grid, so you have regional grids that 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:12.520 are fairly robust, but movement of power between regions has 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:16.600 been very constrained. And you have three distinct power systems 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:19.600 in the US, the Western Grid, the Eastern Grid, and 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:24.280 the Texas Grid that have very very low connections between them. 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:27.760 But that's not even the entire story. Within those regions, 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.640 there's some pockets that haven't connected well within each other. 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.320 This is starting to turn. They've started to go back 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:36.320 to I would say, kind of back to basics, honestly, right, 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:38.760 So long term planning, so instead of doing three to 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.359 five years, you're looking out to twenty years. Now some 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:44.000 places we're already doing this, but long term planning is 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.919 the underpinning of making good decisions because you then know 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:52.399 does this project help me today or does it also 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:55.879 the building block of a much larger project down the 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.399 road if all these other things happen. They're also starting 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:02.840 to look at other technologies other than building transmission lines. 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:07.000 There's a portfolio of technologies out there called grid enhancing technologies, 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:11.760 and that can avoid building a transmission line and often 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.760 is complementary to building a transmission line utilities are very 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.160 risk averse and they've had a hard time moving forward 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.080 with these projects out of pilot stage into more commercial 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:26.040 scale deployments. In our modeling, this stuff is crucial, right, 0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.560 we need more of it. Most of the business cases 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:32.640 for these types of technologies is a slam dung, honestly. 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.000 So I wanted to talk about other regions, but let's 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.640 stick with the grid enhancing technologies because I'm curious about them. 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:41.399 I know of some of them. For example, there's a 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.399 startup called ts Conductor which wants to replace that type 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:46.600 of cable that exists and that will allow you to 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:50.400 carry more power through the same connections than you used 0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:52.520 to be able to do in the past. What other types 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:56.040 of grid enhancing technologies are there, Yeah. 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:58.439 So that's a great one. Advanced conductors allows you to 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.840 just move more power through an existing transmission line. Often 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:03.080 you don't have to change the towers. You just change 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:06.040 out the wire and you can get more capacity, which 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:09.199 means that you don't need to expand the footprint of 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:12.920 the corridor at all. Another one is dynamic line ratings, 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.840 and this is really just about transmission line often has 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:20.439 a static rating, meaning that this transmission line is one 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:24.240 hundred megawatts, it's one hundred megawats all year round. With 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:27.440 dynamic line ratings, you are able to change the rating 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.400 of the transmission line hour to hour. And the reality 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:32.560 is that the rating of a transmission line does vary 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.359 because it varies based on weather for the most part, 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:37.360 where the sun is in the sky, how much wind. 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.439 There is a bunch of environmental variables, and if you 0:19:40.520 --> 0:19:43.399 know them, you can actually push more power through these lines. 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:46.080 So in winter you could have a higher rating, and 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:47.560 in summer you could have a lower rating. 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:50.720 Absolutely yeah, And it can be quite notable, like thirty 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:54.480 percent differences between wow yeah. And so if you can 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:56.840 exploit this, then you can make better use of it. 0:19:57.080 --> 0:20:00.040 Beyond that, like batteries have a role to play, and 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.880 inside flexibility is a portfolio of technologies where we talk 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:06.600 about like a smart charging of electric vehicles. But you 0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:08.439 can do this in a way if you have the 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.800 situational knowledge of what's going on on a power system, 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:16.560 you can tactically change consumption so that you don't create constraints, 0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:19.520 and you might even mitigate constraints that would happen for 0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:23.879 other reasons by ramping up charging at specific times, and 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:27.240 so there's a lot of opportunity there. I think, in fact, 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.040 the single largest value that digitalization of the power system 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:35.679 will provide is through the provision of flexibility on the system, 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:37.640 rather than what we've seen so far, which has really 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:39.679 just been incremental efficiency gains. 0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:42.480 Yeah. I mean, and this reminds me of the conversation 0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:45.360 we had about AI and the grids, because what you're 0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:49.040 describing is the number of decisions that will need to 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:53.800 be made grow. The conclusion that Priodante came to was 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:57.280 there is just no way that future grids can operate 0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:01.800 well enough without AI. Thing AI can help reduce the 0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:03.840 cost of managing those grades a lot. 0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:09.400 Interesting statement, Yeah, I think so. I used to work 0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:11.359 in a control room, and I think there'll be some 0:21:11.440 --> 0:21:16.520 hesitation to introducing algorithms that we don't know the outcomes 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:22.600 of into a system where you have hospitals connected, airports connected, 0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:26.200 and so the reliability and the security of the system 0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:29.520 is the thing that we hold the most paramount in 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:32.400 a control center. I think you're right. I think that 0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.840 the complexity of the task is rising, and they're already 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:38.160 seeing this in the control room with having to increase 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:40.960 staff and so at some point you're going to have 0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:44.840 to make a decision around do we simplify the complexity 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:49.239 and as a result we might have certain optimization and 0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:53.760 efficiency gains lost that we just don't realize, or do 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:57.240 we introduce more complex algorithms. But I think there's a 0:21:57.280 --> 0:22:00.840 real risk around having algorithms where we don't have known outcomes, 0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:04.720 rather than more deterministic algorithms which are already in control 0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:07.800 rooms and quite complex. And so I think there's a 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:09.439 trade off to be made here. I'm not sure, and 0:22:09.560 --> 0:22:12.240 it's possible that different markets will land at different places. 0:22:12.320 --> 0:22:13.520 We'll get to see this play. 0:22:13.280 --> 0:22:15.880 Out a bit. And so going back to the regional 0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:20.440 spread in Europe is the same situation like the US 0:22:20.480 --> 0:22:22.840 to some extent that demand wasn't growing very much, but 0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:26.280 now it's starting to grow, except Europe is a lot 0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:30.480 more interconnected despite having a lot more nation states, and 0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:33.640 so are there challenges for Europe that are different from 0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:35.240 the ones that are there in the US. 0:22:36.240 --> 0:22:38.520 So I would say the European grid is further along. 0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:43.520 In Europe they are building systems, and up until recently, 0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:48.280