1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election. 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 5 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, 7 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support. 8 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. We're 9 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 2: very excited now to be joined by Professor John Meersheimer, 10 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: personal hero of mine. He is the R. Wendell Harrison 11 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 2: Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the 12 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 2: University of Chicago since nineteen eighty two. Thank you very 13 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 2: much for joining us, sir. 14 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 3: We appreciate it, my pleasure. 15 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: So, Professor, you're well known in many circles for being 16 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,920 Speaker 2: a well known scholar on realism. But recently, I would 17 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 2: say you've really come into especial relevance with the collapse 18 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: of the liberal international system and of how we are 19 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 2: to deal with it, especially with the flare ups of 20 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 2: Israel and Ukraine. We wanted to start actually on the 21 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 2: issue of Israel. I read your book The Israel lobby 22 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 2: many many years ago, really opened my eyes as to 23 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 2: the influence here in Washington. But what I would I 24 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 2: really like to know from you is how the US 25 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 2: policy visa the Israel since October seventh has only further 26 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: isolated the United States, both in terms of Israeli action 27 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 2: and in terms of Israeli policy. 28 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 4: Well, I think there's no question that the United States, 29 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 4: in large part because of the Israel Lobby, has been 30 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 4: joined at the hip with Israel. And after October seventh, 31 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 4: when the Israelis decided to go on a rampage in Gaza, 32 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 4: the United States fully supported the Israelis. Many Israeli generals 33 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 4: have made it clear that they could not conduct this 34 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 4: offensive against the Palestinians in Gaza without the materials support. 35 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 4: And here we're talking mainly about weaponry that the United 36 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 4: States is providing them, and furthermore, we're providing them with 37 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 4: diplomatic cover. The United States is COMPLICITUS with what Israel 38 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 4: is doing in Gaza. And this is hardly surprising given 39 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 4: the power of the lobby in the United States. 40 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: I wanted to get your reaction to recent events. So 41 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: we've had many quite significant factors emerged recently. We have 42 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: the ICC signaling they're likely to issue arrest warrants for 43 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: net Yahoo. And in addition, Defense Minister you of Galant, 44 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: you have the ICJ just recently issuing yet another injunction 45 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: basically saying you cannot go into Rafa. You had Biden 46 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: sort of weekly signaling this redline and pretending at least 47 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,359 Speaker 1: like he was going to halt weapons shipments if there 48 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: was what he described as a quote unquote major invasion 49 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: of Rafa. 50 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 3: You have three more. 51 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: European countries coming out and recognizing a Palestinian state, and 52 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: yet in spite of all of that, or perhaps because 53 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: of some of that, you still have the IDF. Going forward. 54 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: We saw this horrific massacre of Palestinians who were displaced 55 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: in a safe zone inside of their tents, at least 56 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: forty five killed. What do you make of the Israeli 57 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: calculation at this point and the moment that we're in 58 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: right now. 59 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 4: Well, just to talk about the Israeli calculation, I think 60 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 4: it's important emphasize that Netya, who has no real interest 61 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 4: in ending the war, the longer the war goes on, 62 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 4: the better for him politically, because once the war ends, 63 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 4: he'll have to face the music for what happened on 64 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 4: October seventh, and he could be pushed overboard. So he 65 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 4: has a vested interest in keeping the war going for 66 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 4: that reason. Secondly, he's committed to defeating Hamas completely. He's 67 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 4: committed to winning the decisive victory. I don't believe for 68 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 4: one second that he can do that, but if he's 69 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 4: going to attempt. 70 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 3: To do it, he has to go into Rafa. 71 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 4: So to defeat Hamas, in his mind, it's necessary to 72 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 4: go into Rafa. Now, with regard to why he did it, 73 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 4: given all the intern national condemnation of Israel's behavior towards 74 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 4: the Palestinians in Gaza in general, and especially with regard 75 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 4: to what's happening in Rafa, she just doesn't care. It 76 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 4: doesn't matter to him what world opinion says one way 77 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 4: or the other, as long as the United States backs them, 78 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 4: as long as the United States has his back and 79 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 4: Joe Biden has his back, and he knows full well 80 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 4: that if Trump gets elected in November, the Trump will 81 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: have his back as well. So he's free to do 82 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 4: whatever he wants. And given that he has a vested 83 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 4: interest and continuing this war and trying to defeat jumas 84 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 4: we go on and. 85 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 2: On, Professor, how do you see in the short term. 86 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 2: Obviously they're going to have the back of the US, 87 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 2: the US is the dominant power in the world. But 88 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 2: the increasing isolation of both the United States and Israel, 89 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: what does that look like for Israel in the long 90 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: in the medium to long term future, are they going 91 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 2: to be an international pariah state? How do you see 92 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 2: the evolution of the international system with respect to Israel 93 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:03,799 Speaker 2: over time? 94 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's very important to emphasize that independent 95 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 4: of what's going on in Gaza, Israel is an apartheid state. 96 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 4: And here we're talking about Greater Israel, which includes the 97 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 4: West Bank and Gaza. 98 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 3: Which are part of Greater Israel. For sure. 99 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 4: Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and but Selim, which is 100 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 4: the leading human rights organization inside of Israel, have all 101 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 4: issued lengthy and sophisticated reports that make a compelling case 102 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 4: that Israel is an apartheid state. The Israelis are well 103 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 4: aware of what happened to South Africa. South Africa with 104 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 4: ones in apartheid state, and it's no longer in apartheid 105 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 4: state because it's very hard to sustain an apartheid state 106 00:05:54,640 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 4: in the modern world. So Israel has real problems moving 107 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 4: forward because it's an apartheid state and it has no 108 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 4: way at the moment of getting out of that situation. 109 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 4: When you marry that to the fact that Israel is 110 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 4: committing genocide in Gaza. And by the way, if you 111 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 4: don't think Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, you at 112 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: least have to admit that they're engaged in mass murder 113 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 4: and that they're attempting to starve the Palestinians in Gaza. 114 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 4: What they're doing in Gaza is absolutely horrible. I would 115 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 4: call it a genocide. So what you have here is 116 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 4: an apartheid state that's engaged in genocide. And the question 117 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 4: you have to ask yourself is what is the long 118 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 4: term viability of a state that fits that description? And 119 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 4: I would argue over the long term this presents enormous 120 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 4: problems for Israel, and one can argue that the survival 121 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 4: of Israel will be at stake if it doesn't change 122 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 4: its ways. 123 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: Could you talk a little bit about how you came 124 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: to the conclusion that this isn't just a mass laughter, 125 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: that it does in fact meet the definition of genocide 126 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: and whether you see that determination as being significant. 127 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 3: Well, at first I didn't think it was a genocide. 128 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,200 Speaker 4: I thought there was no question that the Israelis were 129 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 4: inflicting significant punishment on the civilian population. 130 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 3: Of Gaza. 131 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 4: And it was clear in the beginning that what they 132 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 4: were trying to do was they were trying to ethnically 133 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 4: cleanse Gaza. You want to understand that if the Israelis 134 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 4: were able to cleanse Gaza, they would solve the apartheid problem. 135 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 4: And that's true, of course with regard to the West 136 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 4: Bank as well. If Israel could cleanse Gaza and the 137 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 4: West Bank of Palestinians, they would solve the apartheid problem. 138 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 4: So I think from the beginning what the Israelis were 139 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 4: doing in Gaza was they were trying to cleanse Gaza. 140 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 4: They were trying to drive all the Palestinians out, and 141 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 4: the way they tried to do that was by making 142 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 4: the place unlivable. So they were killing huge numbers of Palestinians. 143 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 4: They were destroying their homes, they were destroying schools, they 144 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 4: were destroying cemeteries, they were destroying government buildings, they were 145 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 4: destroying moss. And at a certain point it became clear 146 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 4: that this was genocide, that they were trying to kill 147 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 4: an enormous number of people in Gaza for the purposes 148 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 4: of cleansing Gaza. And then you marry on top of 149 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 4: that the fact that they were starving the population. They 150 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 4: were greatly greatly the amount of food and water and 151 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 4: fuel and medicine that could come into Gaza, and all 152 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 4: of this was for the purpose of making the place 153 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 4: unlivable and killing large numbers of Palestinians. And this is 154 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 4: what led the International Court of Justice in January to 155 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 4: say that there was enough evidence to make a plausible 156 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 4: case that Israel is committing genocide. And I think, having 157 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 4: looked very carefully at the case, that the evidence is 158 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,559 Speaker 4: quite clear that this is a genocide. 159 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 2: Professor, what standing has the US's real relationship had, or sorry, 160 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: what effect has the US's relationship had, especially post October seventh, 161 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: on the US is standing in the international community and 162 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: in the world. Has it how negatively do you think 163 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 2: it's affected the US And what are the long term 164 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 2: impacts in terms of our own policy and standing. 165 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's done significant damage to our repation. 166 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 4: I mean, I think that outside of the West, most 167 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 4: people believe that this is a genocide. And again, if 168 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 4: you don't believe it's a genocide, it's at least mass murder. 169 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 4: This is certainly a crime against humanity what the Israelis 170 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 4: are doing in Gaza. But I think most people outside 171 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 4: of the West believe it is a genocide, and I 172 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 4: think most people believe correctly that the United States is 173 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 4: complicit in this genocide. 174 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 3: And the end. 175 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 4: Result is that's going to do enormous damage not only 176 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 4: to Israel's reputation, but to our reputation. 177 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 3: Then it taken a step further. 178 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 4: As you both know well, the United States privileges the 179 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 4: liberal international order, or. 180 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 3: The rules based order. 181 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 4: We believe that international law, international rules really matter. When 182 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 4: you look at how the Israelis are behaving in Gaza 183 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 4: and how they react to the ICC and the ICJ, 184 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 4: and how we support them in their reaction, it's quite 185 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 4: clear that we are massive hypocrites when it comes to 186 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 4: international law. And this too damages the United States. The 187 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 4: United States basically created the international liberal order. It has 188 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 4: a vested interest in making it work. And what we're 189 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 4: doing in our support of israel Is, we're undermining the 190 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 4: international liberal order. People around the world are actually quite 191 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 4: shocked at the extent to which the United States is 192 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 4: willing to excuse Israeli behavior when it's in direct violation 193 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 4: of international law. 194 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: I'm almost afraid to ask the next question, but how 195 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: do you think this ends? I mean, do they effectively 196 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 1: succeed in completing the genocide? Because, as you point out, Nanna, 197 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: who has no interest in ending this war, Joe Biden 198 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: clearly has no interest in moving away from the unconditional 199 00:11:56,080 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: support posture. Donald Trump would be the same, probably without 200 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: the little bit of liberal hand ringing that we get 201 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: from Joe Biden. So how do you see this playing out? 202 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 3: It's very hard to say. 203 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 4: I mean, I'm hoping that the shooting stops at some 204 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 4: point they're not too distant future. I'm hoping that after 205 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 4: the assault on Rafa, the Israelis stop the large scale 206 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 4: offensive military operations in Gaza and instead they restrict their 207 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 4: military operations to small scale attacks against Tamas. I mean, 208 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 4: I'd like to see all the shooting stop, but I 209 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 4: think that's highly unlikely. But I'd like to see it 210 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 4: become more limited. And I think that what will end 211 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 4: up happening here is that the Israelis will end up 212 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 4: occupying Gaza for the foreseeable future, and Israel will remain 213 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 4: in apartheid state, and the Palestinians, of course, at some 214 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,680 Speaker 4: time in the future will revolt again. I mean, you 215 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 4: want to understand that what happened on October seventh is 216 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 4: not the first instance of the Palestinians rebelling against the Israelis. 217 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 4: You had the first into Fada in nineteen eighty seven, 218 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 4: you had the second into Fada in two thousand and 219 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 4: then you had October seventh, and there were all sorts 220 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 4: of mini revolts in between those three important events. And 221 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 4: this is what happens when you have an apartheid state. 222 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 4: The people who are being dominated, and that course is 223 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 4: the Palestinian population, they are going to revolt. And therefore 224 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 4: I think that we can expect to see trouble for 225 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 4: as far as the eye can. 226 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,199 Speaker 2: See, Professor, how do you see the risks of a 227 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 2: regional conflict? If that is going to increase, and then 228 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 2: the odds of the US would be dragged along. We 229 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 2: talked previously in some mar shows, has been cross border 230 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 2: fire between the Egyptians and the Israelis. Is there going 231 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 2: to be a power vacuum similar to the nineteen sixteen seventies, 232 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: or the Palestinian cause brings a lot of popularity and 233 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 2: could invite broader regional conflict. Where do you see that going. 234 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 4: Well, you want to remember that the United States is 235 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 4: already fighting the Huthis in the Red Sea as a 236 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 4: result of what going on in Gaza. But the really 237 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 4: interesting question has to do with Iran. Now, it's clear 238 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 4: from what happened in April. You remember, on April first, 239 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 4: the Israeli struck the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, and 240 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 4: on April fourteenth, the Iranians attacked Israel in response, and 241 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 4: then on April nineteenth, Israel launched a very limited strike 242 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 4: against Iran. So between April first and April nineteenth, we 243 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 4: had this conflict not simply involving Israel and Iran. The 244 00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 4: United States was involved as well. We were in in 245 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 4: the combat that took place on April fourteenth when Iran 246 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 4: attacked Israel. We shot down about half of the drones 247 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 4: and cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that were aimed at Israel. 248 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 4: So we were deeply involved. Now what does this tell you? 249 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 4: If you look carefully, you see that the United States 250 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 4: and Iran had no interest in having this conflict take place. 251 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 4: It's the Israelis who wanted to drag the Americans into 252 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 4: a war with Iran. It's the Israelis who started these 253 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 4: events on April first when they attacked the Iranian embassy 254 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 4: in Damascus. Then after April first, the United States and 255 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 4: the Iranians went to great lengths to make sure that 256 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 4: the conflict did not escalate to the point where you 257 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 4: had a war between the United States and Iran. We 258 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 4: don't want a wider conflict in the region. We're not 259 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 4: happy about the fact that we're fighting the Whothies. We 260 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 4: certainly don't want a war with Iran, and we don't 261 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 4: want a war with Hesbelah either, And in that case, 262 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 4: we've been putting significant pressure on the Israelis not to 263 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 4: get into a major league fight with Hesblah on their 264 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 4: northern border, because again, we're afraid that we'll be pulled in. 265 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 4: So I think it's very important to understand that there 266 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 4: is potential for escalation in the region beyond what's happening 267 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 4: in the Israel Palestine conflict, but that the United States 268 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 4: has no interest in seeing itself get dragged into another 269 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 4: forever war and Therefore, I think it is unlikely that 270 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 4: we will end up fighting against Iran in the foreseeable future. 271 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: Do you see any Israeli domestic political considerations that could 272 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 1: and pressures that could lead to some sort of a 273 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: ceasefire agreement in the short term? You had both Benny Ganson, 274 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: you have Glant coming out against specifically issuing these series 275 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: of ultimatums. Looks like he's preparing to exit the war 276 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: cabinet on June eighth. You have massive protests. You know, 277 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 1: there isn't a lot of disagreement about the prosecution of 278 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: the war, the treatment palace and civilians per se, but 279 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: there is massive friction over the pursuit of a hostage deal. 280 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: Do you think that any of those things could bring 281 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 1: this conflict to a close the at least the micro 282 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: conflict that's being engaged in right now. 283 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 4: Well, as you point out, there are you know, very 284 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 4: powerful centrifugal forces inside of Israel, the threatened that government, 285 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 4: and at first glance appear to push. 286 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 3: In the direction of some sort of cease fire. 287 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 4: But I would just say that if you watch Benjamin Nettna, 288 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 4: who in action, he is something of a magician when 289 00:17:54,240 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 4: it comes to maintaining his position in power. There's no 290 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 4: question that you know, his work cabinet is deeply unhappy 291 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,959 Speaker 4: with the fact that he has no plan for how 292 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 4: to run Gaza once the shooting stops. It's very clear 293 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 4: that the hostage problem is causing him enormous trouble. But again, 294 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 4: he is something of a magician, and I would not 295 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 4: bet a lot of money that he's toppled anytime soon. 296 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 4: I would also know that if he is toppled, it 297 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 4: won't matter that much. The fact that you know, net 298 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 4: Yahoo is not an outlier here. Many liberal American Jews 299 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,440 Speaker 4: like to make the argument that the real problem here 300 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 4: is Benjamin nan Yaho, and if only we can get 301 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 4: rid of Benjamin nan Yahoo will live happily ever after. 302 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 4: I think this is not the case. I think that 303 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 4: nan Yahoo has views that are, you know, similar to 304 00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 4: Benny Gantz's views, similar to Yoav Galand's views. I mean, 305 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 4: he's not an outlier. And in fact, if you look 306 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 4: at his entire cabinet, he has a number of people 307 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 4: who are far to the right of him. He looks 308 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 4: like a statrist in the context of. 309 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 3: His own cabinet. 310 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 4: The fact is that Israel is a remarkably hawkish state. 311 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 4: The Israel that I knew when I was a young 312 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 4: boy and a young man has gone away. It's moved 313 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 4: steadily to the right over time, and I believe with 314 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 4: the passage of time it will move even further and 315 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 4: further to the right. This is a hawkish country that 316 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 4: that has extremest views towards the Palestinians. 317 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's one of the only countries where younger people 318 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: are actually more hardline, more hawkish, more right wing than 319 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 1: older populations. I wanted to ask you about Joe Biden 320 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: to the best that you can assess if there are 321 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: for people here who want to put pressure on him 322 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: to change policy in some way? You know, do you 323 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: see any pressure points? Is it your assessment that he's 324 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 1: driven primarily by his own ideology, clearly has this great 325 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: sentimental attachment to that Israel of long gone Israel of 326 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: your Is it about the power of the Israel lobby. 327 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 1: We saw, you know, an email from a top Biden 328 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: donor that was outraged that he wouldn't consider cutting off 329 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: weapons ever, or is it, you know, is it a 330 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: political calculation where he thinks there's more to be gained 331 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 1: from being very pro Israel than to be gained by, 332 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 1: you know, having a more sympathetic view towards the Palestinians 333 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: and reflecting what the overwhelming majority of the Democratic base 334 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 1: wants to see. How do you assess those things? What 335 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: would your assessment be of potential pressure points on Joe 336 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: Biden himself. 337 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 4: I think there's no question that Biden is profoundly committed 338 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:58,200 Speaker 4: to Israel. He is an art Zionist, and he self 339 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 4: describes as an art Zionist, so no question about that. 340 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 4: At the same time, I think he believes that the 341 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 4: Israelis have gone too far in Gaza and it's not 342 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 4: good for Israel to continue on the path that it's 343 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 4: now on. And I think he believes you could be 344 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 4: an art Zionist. You can be deeply committed to Israel 345 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,880 Speaker 4: and you can still think that Israel should change its 346 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 4: behavior in Gaza. 347 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:29,640 Speaker 3: So I think there is. 348 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 4: A difference of opinion between Benjamin nan Yahu and Joe 349 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 4: Biden at this point in time on moving forward in Gaza. 350 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 3: However, the problem he faces is the lobby. 351 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 4: If he does anything that puts pressure on Israel to 352 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 4: change its behavior in Gaza, the lobby is going to 353 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 4: land on him like a ton of bricks, and this 354 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 4: would be disastrous for him in terms of getting re elected. 355 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 4: In November, he has an election coming up, and the 356 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 4: last thing he wants to do is antagonize the Israel 357 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 4: lobby because he's fully aware how powerful it is. At 358 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,639 Speaker 4: the same time, because he's a Democrat, and because the 359 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 4: Democratic Party has a large constituency of progressives in it 360 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 4: who are outraged by what Biden is doing via the Gaza, 361 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 4: he has to go to great lengths to try to 362 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 4: appease those people so that they don't vote against him 363 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 4: or stay home in November. So what you see is 364 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 4: that Biden is caught between a rock and a hard place. 365 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:46,360 Speaker 4: If he tilts towards Arab American in sentiments, the lobby 366 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 4: will punish him. And if he continues to support Israel 367 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 4: hook line and sinker, the Arab Americans and the progressives 368 00:22:55,040 --> 00:23:00,199 Speaker 4: more generally will punish him in the full election. So 369 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 4: he isn't a damned if you do, damned if you 370 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 4: don't situation, and he could very well lose the election 371 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 4: because of this. 372 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 3: Certainly possible. 373 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 2: So I want to switch gears a little bit to 374 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 2: Ukraine and to check in on where we are now. 375 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 2: You were possibly one of the most maligned people in 376 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 2: the foreign policy world at the outbreak of the conflict, 377 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: even though you'd long been and writing about the fact 378 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,160 Speaker 2: that it was in fact NATO expansion in US policy 379 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 2: visa v. Russia, that it was a contributing factor to 380 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 2: the Russian invasion of Ukraine several years now into US 381 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 2: policy and many of the Ukrainians stalled so called counter 382 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 2: offensive and ongoing Russian gains. How do you assess the 383 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 2: situation in Ukraine today? 384 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 4: Oh, I think the Russians are clearly in the driver's seat. 385 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 4: The balance of power, I think through most of twenty 386 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 4: twenty two favored the Ukrainians and the West on one 387 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 4: side over the Russians. In late twenty twenty two, the 388 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 4: Russians began to mobilize in a serious way, and then 389 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty three, over the course of twenty twenty three, 390 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 4: the balance shifted in significant ways towards the Russians, and 391 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 4: now in twenty twenty four, were five months into twenty 392 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 4: twenty four, the balance continues to shift more and more 393 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,360 Speaker 4: in Russia's favor, and if you look at what's happening 394 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 4: on the battlefield the Russians are really pounding the Ukrainians. 395 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 4: The Ukrainians are in deep trouble. This is a war 396 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 4: of attrition. This is basically, you know, Muhammad Ali and 397 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 4: Joe Fraser stand in toe to toe and beating the 398 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 4: living daylights out of each other. Two big armies just 399 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,959 Speaker 4: pounding each other. And the question is which army is 400 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 4: going to bleed the other army white first. And it 401 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 4: is to me manifestly clear that the Russians are bleeding 402 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 4: the Ukrainian army white, and the Ukrainians are not able 403 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 4: to much to the Russians anymore. And the reason for 404 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 4: this is that the balance of man power and the 405 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 4: balance of firepower, these are two indicators that really matter 406 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 4: in a war of attrition, decisively favor the Russians. The 407 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 4: Russians have an enormous advantage in artillery, They have an 408 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 4: enormous advantage in air power. Those two things they add 409 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 4: up to say they have an enormous advantage in firepower. 410 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,919 Speaker 4: Firepower being airpower plus artillery put together. And then if 411 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 4: you look at the manpower balance, the Russians have a 412 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 4: significant advantage there. You know, the average age of a 413 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 4: Ukrainian soldier on the front lines is forty three years old. 414 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 4: Forty three years old. Combat is designed for young men 415 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 4: and now young women, right, you want people in their twenties. 416 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 4: You don't even want people in their thirties. The idea 417 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,640 Speaker 4: that the average aide of a soldier on the Ukrainian 418 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 4: side is forty three years old, it's hard to believe. Furthermore, 419 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,479 Speaker 4: you have a significant problem with draft dodging inside of Ukraine. 420 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 4: All sorts of young Ukrainian men fully understand that Ukraine 421 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 4: is doomed and they don't want to die in a 422 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 4: lost cause. Therefore, it's very hard for the Ukrainian military 423 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 4: to mobilize people. Moreover, you have a huge number of 424 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 4: Ukrainian men who are of draft age, who are in 425 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,919 Speaker 4: the European Union and don't want to come back to 426 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 4: Ukraine and fight. So the Ukrainians are at a significant 427 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:42,479 Speaker 4: disadvantage in terms of the balance of soldiers on the 428 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,159 Speaker 4: front line, and as I said before, there are a 429 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 4: significant disadvantage in terms of the balance of firepower. 430 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 3: And this is a war of attrition. So they are. 431 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 4: Being clobbered on the battlefield day by day, and eventually 432 00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 4: that military is going to suffer significant defeat. They're going 433 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 4: to in a position where they can no longer carry 434 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 4: on the war. 435 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 1: What do you think the political calculation is in Washington 436 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: at this point, Because from an outsider vantage point, I 437 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 1: think in the early days, back when there was potential 438 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: peace negotiations on the table, there was a lot of arrogance. 439 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 1: There was a thought, no, we can push for a 440 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 1: total victory. Then we had the counter offensive and all 441 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 1: the hopes surrounding that that's when Ukraine is going to 442 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,719 Speaker 1: be able to take back significant amount of terrain that 443 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: obviously didn't happen. Now there doesn't even seem to be 444 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: a narrative about how this is going to play out, 445 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 1: how it's going to result in anything other than disaster. 446 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 1: So what do you see as Washington's political calculation being 447 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:41,360 Speaker 1: at this point. 448 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 4: Well, in terms of a purely political calculation, I think 449 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 4: given that the elections coming up in early November, the 450 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 4: administration wants to make sure that Ukraine does not suffer 451 00:27:54,359 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 4: an obvious defeat before early November, before the election, they 452 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 4: what a great lengths to prevent that from happening. I 453 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 4: think the story that people tell themselves, which they probably 454 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 4: don't believe very much anymore, is that if Ukraine can 455 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 4: hold out in twenty twenty four, by twenty twenty five. 456 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 3: All of this weaponry that we have in the West. 457 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,439 Speaker 4: That we're building for Ukraine will be available and we 458 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 4: can shift it or we can send it to Ukraine 459 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, and that will shift the balance back 460 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 4: in favor of Ukraine. It will look like the situation 461 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,959 Speaker 4: that you described Crystal in twenty twenty two. That's I 462 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 4: think that's the most optimistic story that people tell themselves. 463 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 4: But my sense is that deep down, at this point 464 00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 4: in time, most people fully understand that Ukraine is doomed. 465 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 4: That the only interesting question at this point in time 466 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 4: is how much territory are the Russians going to cap 467 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 4: sure before this turns into a frozen conflict. But there's 468 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 4: really no way to rescue the situation here. The Ukrainians 469 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 4: are simply doomed. They can't fix the manpower problem, and 470 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 4: with regard to the weaponry problem, we don't have the 471 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 4: weaponry to give them, and we're not going to be 472 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 4: able to spin up the industrial base to provide them 473 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 4: even in twenty twenty five, with enough weaponry to rescue 474 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 4: the situation. 475 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 3: But again, even if we give them the weaponry. 476 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 4: They have a huge manpower problem, and the Russians just 477 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 4: get stronger and stronger. Putin is on a roll. The 478 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,720 Speaker 4: Russians are on a roll. So I think that what 479 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 4: you're going to see here is what I call an 480 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 4: ugly Russian victory. 481 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 2: Professor, here in Washington, the justification for the Ukrainian cause 482 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 2: is if we don't stop putin Ukraine, then Estonia, latf 483 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 2: and the other NATO countries are at risk. You have 484 00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 2: long argued, and I've long agreed with you, that what 485 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,959 Speaker 2: happens in you is not all of that much interest. 486 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 2: But what would you say to those who say, that's why, 487 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 2: Professor Marshamer, we must give even more to Ukrainians to 488 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 2: make sure that that doesn't happen. Why does this not 489 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 2: actually matter that much? And what's wrong with that logic 490 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 2: about if we don't stop him here that he'll continue onwards. 491 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 4: Well, first of all, I don't even think that Putin 492 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 4: is interested in conquering all of Ukraine. He's never said 493 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 4: that he's interested in conquering all of Ukraine, and in fact, 494 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,760 Speaker 4: he's told the Ukrainians in recent months that the great 495 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 4: danger to them is that Romania and Poland in countries 496 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 4: on Ukraine's western border, may someday take territory in Western 497 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 4: Ukraine that once belonged to them. It's very important to 498 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 4: understand that a huge chunk of Western Ukraine once belonged 499 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,920 Speaker 4: to Poland, and there are a number of Poles who 500 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,320 Speaker 4: would like to get that territory back. I'm not arguing 501 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,960 Speaker 4: that Poland is operating on the basis that it can 502 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 4: get that territory back. But nevertheless, Putin has said that 503 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,400 Speaker 4: there is a danger that this will happen. That indicates 504 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 4: to you that he is not planning to take western Ukraine. 505 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,240 Speaker 3: And indeed, he would be. 506 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 4: Crazy to take western Ukraine because it's filled with ethnic 507 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 4: Ukrainians who hate Russians, and he would have a major 508 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 4: insurgency on his hand hands if he tried to conquer 509 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 4: all of Ukraine. So he's not even going to take 510 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 4: all of Ukraine. He's never been interested in taking all 511 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 4: of Ukraine. Now, the idea that he's going to then, 512 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 4: you know, go conquer countries in Eastern Europe, he's never 513 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 4: indicated any interest in that. And by the way, during 514 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 4: the Cold War, the Soviet Union occupied all of Eastern Europe. 515 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 3: It was a nightmare. The Soviets have been there, done that, 516 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 3: and it did not work out very well. 517 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 4: The last thing they want to do is start occupying 518 00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 4: countries in Eastern Europe so they can do hung fifty 519 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 4: six again, Czechoslovakia sixty eight again, East Germany fifty three again. 520 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,840 Speaker 4: The problems that they had were with the Poles were legion. 521 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 4: The problems they had with the Romanians and the Albanians 522 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 4: were even worse. I mean, the idea that they want 523 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 4: to conquered territory and recreate the Russian Empire in Eastern 524 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 4: Europe is just not a serious argument. It's standard threat 525 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 4: inflation that we engage in here in the West, all 526 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 4: for the purposes of getting the public to support continued 527 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 4: support of Ukraine. And again this is just not. 528 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 3: A serious threat, Professor. 529 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 1: At the beginning of this conflict, we really through the 530 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 1: kitchen sink at Russia in terms of sanctions, made it 531 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 1: maybe the most ancient country on the entire planet. I'm 532 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,600 Speaker 1: not going to say that those sanctions didn't bite at all, 533 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 1: but the Russian economy seems to be doing fairly well 534 00:32:53,880 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: in spite of those master massive coordinated Western sanctions. The 535 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 1: significance of the failure of that sanctions regime. 536 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 3: Here it's very significant. 537 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,680 Speaker 4: I mean, if you go back to twenty twenty two 538 00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 4: when the war first started, and as we were talking 539 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,479 Speaker 4: about before, it looked like the Ukrainian military was doing 540 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,400 Speaker 4: very well against the Russian military in twenty twenty two. 541 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 4: It was that factor plus the fact that we thought 542 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:29,880 Speaker 4: that the sanctions would work, and we thought the sanctions 543 00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 4: would bring the Russians to their knees. So it was 544 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 4: the combination of a belief that the sanctions would work, 545 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:43,479 Speaker 4: combined with the success of the Ukrainian military on the 546 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 4: battlefield in twenty twenty two that led us to think 547 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 4: that we could win the war against Russia. You want 548 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:54,760 Speaker 4: to remember that there were peace negotiations that started immediately 549 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 4: after the war began in February. These were the famous 550 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 4: peace negotiations between Zelensky's side and Putin's side in Istanbul, 551 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 4: and it looked like the two sides were going to 552 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 4: work out in agreement. This was in March early April 553 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,760 Speaker 4: of twenty twenty two, and the war started on February 554 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,840 Speaker 4: twenty fourth, twenty twenty two, so it looked like the 555 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 4: war was going to be brought to an end. It's 556 00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:22,280 Speaker 4: now quite clear that the West, and here we're talking 557 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:26,840 Speaker 4: mainly about the United States and the British told the 558 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,359 Speaker 4: Ukrainians to walk away from the negotiations. 559 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 3: And why did they do that. 560 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:36,840 Speaker 4: They did it because the West thought that Ukraine could 561 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 4: defeat the Russians on the battlefield number one and number two, 562 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:45,960 Speaker 4: that the sanctions would do grave damage to the Russian economy. 563 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,920 Speaker 4: Then in the fall, you remember, after the Ukrainians had 564 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:56,920 Speaker 4: been successful on the battlefield in two big areas of 565 00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,400 Speaker 4: eastern Ukraine, General Milly, who was then Gairman of the 566 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 4: Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it's time for peace negotiations. 567 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 4: This is the high water mark for the Ukrainian military. 568 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 4: This is what General Milly said in the fall of 569 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,200 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two. He understood the Ukrainians had done quite 570 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 4: well on the battlefield, but now was the time to 571 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 4: reach some sort of agreement or settlement with the Russians, 572 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 4: because again, this was the high water mark for the 573 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 4: Ukrainian military. That's what he thought, correctly, of course, But 574 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 4: the White House said absolutely not and told General Milly 575 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:39,319 Speaker 4: to stop making these arguments in public. Why did we 576 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,120 Speaker 4: tell or why did the White House tell General Milly 577 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,320 Speaker 4: to cease and desist from making those kinds of arguments. 578 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,680 Speaker 4: It's because we thought the sanctions would work. We thought 579 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 4: we would bring the Russians to their knees, and we 580 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:57,600 Speaker 4: thought the Ukrainians would continue to win on the battlefield. 581 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 4: This was a giant miscalculate with regard to what was 582 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 4: happening on the battlefield, and it was a giant miscalculation 583 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:08,799 Speaker 4: regarding the sanctions. 584 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 3: General Milly was right. 585 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 4: We should have tried to cut a deal in the 586 00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 4: fall of twenty twenty two. Indeed, going back to the 587 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:22,839 Speaker 4: negotiations in Istanbul in March early April of twenty twenty two, 588 00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:27,480 Speaker 4: we should have let them play themselves out those negotiations 589 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:31,160 Speaker 4: and hopefully brought an end to the conflict. But we 590 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 4: did not do that because in good part we thought 591 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 4: the sanctions would work. They haven't worked. The Ukrainians have 592 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 4: done have been less successful on the battlefield, and the 593 00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,040 Speaker 4: end result is that the Russians are going to win 594 00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:46,960 Speaker 4: an ugly victory. 595 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, very well, said Sir. I can't say enough 596 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 2: how much we admire your work. How I personally was 597 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,759 Speaker 2: inspired funny story I had the Israel Lobby on my 598 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 2: shelf in college and a guy said you should take 599 00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 2: that down. That guy's an anti semi Yeah, I said, 600 00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,720 Speaker 2: have you read it, and of course that the answer 601 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 2: was no. So the rightest man in international relations. We 602 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,880 Speaker 2: appreciate you very much, sir, Thank you, professor, thank you, 603 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:08,239 Speaker 2: thank you. 604 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,239 Speaker 3: For having me on the show. I appreciate it.