WEBVTT - How Businesses Turn 'Rogue Waves' to Their Advantage

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, over the

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<v Speaker 1>last seventeen months is we've endured the pandemic. We've seen

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<v Speaker 1>some businesses absolutely thrive, while others not so much. Our

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<v Speaker 1>next guest argues that those that have thrived were in

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<v Speaker 1>fact prepared for an unexpected event like a pandemic, or

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<v Speaker 1>maybe it wasn't even a pandemic that they were prepared for,

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<v Speaker 1>but something else unexpected and they were able to pivot

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<v Speaker 1>and take advantage of the change. Joining us now is

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<v Speaker 1>Jonathan Brill, former global futurist at Hewlett Packard. He's also

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<v Speaker 1>the author of Rogue Waves future Proof Your Business to

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<v Speaker 1>Survive and Profit from Radical Change. He joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Boston. Jonathan, the book is out today. Congratulations.

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<v Speaker 1>I really appreciate you joining us on Bloomberg Business Week Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>First of all, what is a rogue wave? Kim? Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for having me. So you've probably heard of black swan event.

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<v Speaker 1>These are completely unpredictable things that come out of aware

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<v Speaker 1>and often CEOs used this as an excuse, But the

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<v Speaker 1>reality is that most radical disruptions are more knowable than

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<v Speaker 1>you might imagine. What I call roade waves. They're unmanageable,

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<v Speaker 1>hundred foot waves of change. They are caused by the

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<v Speaker 1>collision of individually manageable constructions. I mean, when you think

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<v Speaker 1>about something like COVID, the fall of couple the floods

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<v Speaker 1>in Germany or China over the last couple of months,

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<v Speaker 1>they're important, but what really amplified them was waves of social, economic,

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<v Speaker 1>and technological change. And that's actually what the disruption is. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We opened up after after the last round of COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>We just turned the advertising and we're now seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a resurgence as a result of that. It's

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<v Speaker 1>all of the things around the pandemic that are causing

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<v Speaker 1>the impact, not just the pandemic itself. And the same

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<v Speaker 1>is true of opportunities. Over the last couple of years,

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen this explosion of m R and A vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>for instance. The fall of cobble is going to create opportunities,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe not for the United States, but for China, for

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<v Speaker 1>which is searching for rarer resources which are common in Afghanistan.

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<v Speaker 1>And the flooding in Asia, and the miscalculation of the

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<v Speaker 1>likelihood of these hundred year thousand year floods is going

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<v Speaker 1>to create great rebuilding opportunities for some construction companies. And

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<v Speaker 1>so for the lesson here is that a lot of times,

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<v Speaker 1>when you have volatility, when you have disruption, it's a

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<v Speaker 1>threat for some people, but it's an opportunity for the

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<v Speaker 1>ones that are prepared. So the question isn't how do

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<v Speaker 1>I respond to how do I understand and predict every

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<v Speaker 1>road wave? It's how do I respond when these things

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<v Speaker 1>hit my business? When they when they hit my finances,

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<v Speaker 1>my operations, they change my external environment, or maybe they

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<v Speaker 1>impact my strategy. But a lot of times, Jonathan Company,

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<v Speaker 1>as a leader, if you don't know what at rogue

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<v Speaker 1>wave will be, there's only so much you can do

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<v Speaker 1>to prepare for it. Right. Let's take COVID for example.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's say you're Jeff Bezos who was running Amazon until

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<v Speaker 1>last month. He didn't know that he had to get

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<v Speaker 1>so much ppe to provide to frontline workers, or know

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<v Speaker 1>that there would be a very rapid expansion and growth

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<v Speaker 1>of of Amazon Grocery Deliver your Whole Foods grocery delivery

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<v Speaker 1>for example. Um Or did he write well what he knew,

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<v Speaker 1>I've spent some time with leaders at Amazon. What they

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<v Speaker 1>knew was they had a really good systems model of

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<v Speaker 1>their organization and they knew exactly how hard they could

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<v Speaker 1>push or pull the levers. And so the issue wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>that they were ready for a pandemic. They didn't pull

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<v Speaker 1>out their COVID playbook. They were really ready for everything.

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<v Speaker 1>Most companies really look internally at the things they can control,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's their finances or their offer rations. But the

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<v Speaker 1>reality is most of the things that cause sustained impact

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<v Speaker 1>on business value are external and strategic. So the question

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<v Speaker 1>is how would you respond when any of the major

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<v Speaker 1>UH risk levels are are hit or when they're hit

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<v Speaker 1>in different combinations. And one of the things that the

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<v Speaker 1>Amazon is particularly good at and that I'm an advocate of,

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<v Speaker 1>is gaming out what are those possibilities, pressure testing your organization,

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<v Speaker 1>asking what would happen to something unimaginable hit us. Because

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, Amazon had a really

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<v Speaker 1>good here, and it was because they weren't ready. It

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't because they were ready for COVID. It was because

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<v Speaker 1>they were ready for anything. Yeah, And that's the key

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<v Speaker 1>here is being ready for the unexpected, and certainly I

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<v Speaker 1>do wonder to what extent companies, after learning from the

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<v Speaker 1>last seventeen months, are going to have strategies in place

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<v Speaker 1>that will help them prepare for whatever that next black

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<v Speaker 1>swan or rogue wave or unexpected event will be. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>Jonathan Brill, stick with us, because we're gonna come back

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<v Speaker 1>to you in just a few minutes. We're gonna do

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<v Speaker 1>some news. Jonathan Brill is former global futurist at Hewlett Packard,

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<v Speaker 1>also the author of Rogue Waves future Proof Your Business

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<v Speaker 1>to Survive and Profit from Radical Change. The book is

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<v Speaker 1>out now. It came out today. Jonathan Brill joining us

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<v Speaker 1>live from Boston. We're gonna have much more with him

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<v Speaker 1>in just a few minutes. I want to get right

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<v Speaker 1>back to Jonathan Brill, former global futurist at Hewlett Packard,

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<v Speaker 1>also the author of Rogue Waves future Proof Your Business

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<v Speaker 1>to Survive and Profit From Radical Change. He joins us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Boston. Rogue Waves is out today,

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<v Speaker 1>and Jonathan joins us once again. Now, Jonathan, I want

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about this the framework that you developed in

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<v Speaker 1>this book, the Resilient Growth Strategy UM you call it

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<v Speaker 1>the A. B. C's of Resilient Growth. Take us through it. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>So when we think about companies that are consistently profitable

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<v Speaker 1>through radical changes, like COVID, what we see is that

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<v Speaker 1>they have consistent characteristics way called the ABC's of resilient

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<v Speaker 1>growth awareness. If your people don't know why they need

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<v Speaker 1>to change, obviously they're not getting do that. So you

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<v Speaker 1>need to focus on improving awareness of the operating environment

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<v Speaker 1>through the organization. You need to focus on behavior. It

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't really matter if your people know that as tsunami

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<v Speaker 1>is coming, if they don't have the skills to respond.

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<v Speaker 1>And so the question really is do your managers at

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<v Speaker 1>all levels have the ability to make sense of increased

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<v Speaker 1>resilience to and exploit radical change? And then to see

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<v Speaker 1>in the A b C's is about creating a culture.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have the processes and incentives to encourage employees

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<v Speaker 1>to make decisions that balance both in your term performance

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<v Speaker 1>and long term growth that they if they don't. If

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<v Speaker 1>you don't, obviously they won't. And so when you wrap

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<v Speaker 1>that up, you get a recipe for a more resilient organization.

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<v Speaker 1>We were talking earlier about a company like Amazon, and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know this is true for them, but it's also

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<v Speaker 1>true for a farmer that they work with in Ohio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's what I wanted to talk about, because not everybody

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<v Speaker 1>is in charge of making decisions at a company like Amazon,

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<v Speaker 1>or in charge of a team even and has to

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<v Speaker 1>repair a team for a rogue wave. What are some

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<v Speaker 1>lessons that that people can take away from this? Who

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<v Speaker 1>are managers, who are employees who are looking to become managers?

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<v Speaker 1>What are their takeaways? Yeah? Absolutely, I think that first

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<v Speaker 1>of all, you're you're right, not everybody can be in

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<v Speaker 1>charge of everything, but you can have provide clarity, clarity

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<v Speaker 1>around what it called risk bands. So this is a

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<v Speaker 1>simple thing. When you ask somebody to do something, tell

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<v Speaker 1>them how much risk you want them to take, but

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<v Speaker 1>also tell them how little that you'll accept. If you

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<v Speaker 1>don't give that a bump at the bottom, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>inevitably people will take the least risky path forward as

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<v Speaker 1>opposed to perhaps the best path forward, or that the

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<v Speaker 1>one that you and accept. What about when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to people who are looking just for their own leadership

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<v Speaker 1>lessons here and how to lead through turbulent times? That's

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<v Speaker 1>a great question. So one of the things we talked

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<v Speaker 1>about in the book, and there are hundreds of ideas

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<v Speaker 1>like this is a communication method for leading under uncertainty

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<v Speaker 1>when you're not the boss, how do you talk to

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<v Speaker 1>people in a way that you'll be hurt? First you you,

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<v Speaker 1>it's what I call the lead method, And first you say,

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<v Speaker 1>here's the logic of what I'm suggesting. The second is

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<v Speaker 1>about empathy, saying, hey, you know, I understand you may

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<v Speaker 1>have a different perspective, you might have different goals. I

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<v Speaker 1>understand where you're coming from. Let me just double check

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<v Speaker 1>on that. The third is authority, Right, even if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not the boss, why do I have some experience in

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<v Speaker 1>this situation? And why might I be the person to

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<v Speaker 1>listen to? The fourth, the d M lead is about

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<v Speaker 1>the deadline. Right, how long do we have to make

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<v Speaker 1>a decision. We can decide who's going to do what

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<v Speaker 1>for however long, but at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 1>by Tuesday, we actually need to close out on this

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<v Speaker 1>because if not, there will be an issue moving forward.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you just take those four pieces of information, logic, empathy, authority,

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<v Speaker 1>and deadline, you inoculate against most of the things, most

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<v Speaker 1>of the political issues this more senior managers might use

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<v Speaker 1>against you or that might cause you to not be

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<v Speaker 1>heard some more junior employee when you're looking at when

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<v Speaker 1>you see kind of that iceberg on the horizon. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking of the iceberg on the horizon, I think a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people are thinking about, Okay, well, the pandemic. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>that is something that we need to be prepared for,

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<v Speaker 1>the next pandemic perhaps or the continued evolution of this

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<v Speaker 1>current pandemic. Um, how do we get what are the

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<v Speaker 1>other types of shocks that companies need to be prepared for?

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<v Speaker 1>What are those what are those unknowns? That's a great question,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think one of the in the book, we

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<v Speaker 1>talk about ten major disruptions that are happening over the

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<v Speaker 1>next decade. When it was at HP, we spent several

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars researching the range of possible issues. Every year.

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<v Speaker 1>Was one of those pandemic from down One of them

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<v Speaker 1>was was actually a pandemic. It's some of the sec

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<v Speaker 1>risk violins. So we've announced uh some some businesses that

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<v Speaker 1>are coming out of that research in our micro fluid

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<v Speaker 1>ex business UH and and we've been really looking at

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<v Speaker 1>work from home technologies and how we could uh shift

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<v Speaker 1>the nature of the business. Uh. Not necessarily for COVID,

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<v Speaker 1>but as if something like this happens relatively quickly. The

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<v Speaker 1>result of that is if you take a look at

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<v Speaker 1>Xerox over the last year, and their EPs versus hps

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<v Speaker 1>H piece has been relatively stable versus Zerox is being

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<v Speaker 1>down I think last year something like six nine by gap.

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<v Speaker 1>So the result is, you know, if you take a

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<v Speaker 1>look at those two companies that should be pure companies

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<v Speaker 1>have radically different results because one of them took a

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<v Speaker 1>resilient growth strategy, thought really hard about road waves, and

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<v Speaker 1>one of them, I believe at least optimized for the

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<v Speaker 1>near term. What was the moment over the last eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>months when you realize you needed to write a book

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<v Speaker 1>about this. Ah, that's a great question. I'm passionate about

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<v Speaker 1>what's possible. Uh, kind of breakthrough questions. And I had

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<v Speaker 1>a moment, uh, you know last year. Uh, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen months ago about this time where I realized I

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<v Speaker 1>knew these things, they had had unique knowledge, and we

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<v Speaker 1>had to we had to get ahead of the future

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<v Speaker 1>as a society, as as companies and leaders. Do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that the way we think about collaboration changes the

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<v Speaker 1>way that that managers are are planning for these events?

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<v Speaker 1>And I asked because everybody is talking about to what

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<v Speaker 1>extent we're going to be returning to work in the

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<v Speaker 1>quote unquote new normal physically, and I just wonder how

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<v Speaker 1>that that change is planning for these types of whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not you have a distributed workforce around the country

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<v Speaker 1>versus everybody in one building in a city. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think what you're asking and let's just let's just take

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<v Speaker 1>a slightly different metaphor. Is the difference between like in

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<v Speaker 1>the military, the infantry and the special forces. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>you manage them differently. You tend to give orders a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit differently. And what we're moving from is that

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<v Speaker 1>lockstep where where the infantry always has communication from the top,

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<v Speaker 1>to a world in which we need to be coordinated

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<v Speaker 1>both uh, you know, we need to be both coordinated

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<v Speaker 1>and autonomous. And that looks a lot more like special forces.

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<v Speaker 1>I used to have special Forces operator who was my

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<v Speaker 1>head of strategy, and he gave me some really good

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<v Speaker 1>advice once, mainly because I was terrible at giving orders

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, that's what the army is good at.

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<v Speaker 1>And he said, Okay, here's the deal. You keep coming, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you keep coming to me, giving me half information and

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<v Speaker 1>running for three weeks right right, Like, what I want

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<v Speaker 1>you to do is really simple. Tell me what's the context,

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<v Speaker 1>what situation? What do we not know? Uh? And then uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what what do I need to do if

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<v Speaker 1>you don't come back? The context is always so important.

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<v Speaker 1>Jonathan Bill, former global futurist at Hewlett Packard, also the

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<v Speaker 1>author of road Waves Future Proof of Your Business To

0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.320
<v Speaker 1>Survive and Profit from Radical Change. The book is out today.

0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:25.439
<v Speaker 1>That's going to do it for Bloomberg Business Week. Join

0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.680
<v Speaker 1>us tomorrow, same time, same place, don't miss Sound On

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:30.720
<v Speaker 1>with Joe Matthew today at five pm Wall Street Time

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:32.960
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Up next, Joe is going to speak

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 1>to Massachusetts Representative Seth Molton, a veteran of the Afghanistan war,

0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.360
<v Speaker 1>on the Taliban takeover. That Sound on today at five

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:40.520
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio