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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition. Even though I'm pretty sure
Speaker 2: I said yesterday was Wednesday, that's kind of where we are.
Speaker 2: It's just a big blur right now. Wednesday edition of
Speaker 2: Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Business News Live because you'll actually
Speaker 2: see Brad Howard with us in studio as we save
Speaker 2: a seat for you every day here in Washington following
Speaker 2: the candidates after quite a night on the trail. How
Speaker 2: outraged are you today, I guess is the question, because
Speaker 2: there seems to be a lot of anger around this morning,
Speaker 2: after this day, after Kamala Harris delivered the big speech
Speaker 2: from the ellipse, Joe Biden sitting about a thousand feet
Speaker 2: behind her, saying something that did.
Speaker 3: Not go over very well with Republicans.
Speaker 2: If you haven't heard about the whole garbage episode yet,
Speaker 2: let's walk you through it. Here's the president talking last
Speaker 2: night and.
Speaker 4: Just the other day, I speaker at his rally called
Speaker 4: Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. The only garbage
Speaker 4: I see floating down there as his supporters.
Speaker 2: Okay, so this becomes a story, apparently of the almighty apostrophe.
Speaker 2: The White House released a transcript showing that mister Biden
Speaker 2: was saying his supporter's apostrophe possessive demonization, meaning that this
Speaker 2: comedian who was at Madison Square guard he was talking
Speaker 2: about with the Puerto Rico floating island of garbage reference,
Speaker 2: was the demonization that he was referring to.
Speaker 3: Trump Camp doesn't buy it.
Speaker 2: This thing is exploded to the point where Joe Biden
Speaker 2: had to come out with a clarifying statement. And now
Speaker 2: an interesting moment for Kamala Harris. Everybody woke up this
Speaker 2: morning asking will she separate herself from the president. Here's
Speaker 2: reaction from the Vice President on her way out of
Speaker 2: town earlier today.
Speaker 5: First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me
Speaker 5: be claria. I strongly disagree with any coriticism of people.
Speaker 6: Based on who they vote for.
Speaker 5: Is you've heard in my speech last.
Speaker 6: Night, and continuously throughout my career. I believe that the work.
Speaker 5: That I do is about representing all the people, whether
Speaker 5: they support me or not. And as president of Deniaia says,
Speaker 5: I will be a president for all Americans, whether you
Speaker 5: vote from me or not.
Speaker 2: So is that that a We're going to spend as
Speaker 2: much time talking about this as we did the rhetoric
Speaker 2: at Madison Square Garden? Is there an equivalency hashtag deplorables?
Speaker 2: Brad is with us right now, made his way over
Speaker 2: from Corkford Street Group. It's good to see you, sir,
Speaker 2: Thanks for coming back. You remember deplorables? That was a
Speaker 2: moment that Hillary Clinton, I'm sure regrets. But it does
Speaker 2: seem that we're speak speak to the outrage. It seems
Speaker 2: that we're in a world where both parties are just
Speaker 2: been waiting around all day waiting for something like this
Speaker 2: to happen so they can kick out fundraising emails and
Speaker 2: start freaking out about the rhetoric here.
Speaker 3: Where are you with what Joe Biden's.
Speaker 7: So, you're suggesting people feign offense around election to raise
Speaker 7: money gave no. I mean, look, there's a lot of
Speaker 7: differences here between that and the basket of deplorables. Comment
Speaker 7: first being, he is not the candidate. We you know,
Speaker 7: we made a change any months ago for that. We
Speaker 7: don't know if you heard. So he's not the candidate anymore.
Speaker 7: She is, and you know, and I think it gives
Speaker 7: her an opportunity to want she's consistently said. If you remember,
Speaker 7: there's an interview where Fox News tried to get her
Speaker 7: to insult Trump's base and voters, and she said, I'm
Speaker 7: not going to do that. Brett was with Brett Bear
Speaker 7: and she's, no, I'm not going to call the American
Speaker 7: people a name.
Speaker 8: And today she said the exact same thing, even after.
Speaker 7: Her even after Joe Biden did it our Democratic And
Speaker 7: so that right there shows me that she's willing to
Speaker 7: stand up for what she believes, and even if it's
Speaker 7: against her own party.
Speaker 8: That's a pretty powerful piece of character to get to show.
Speaker 7: You know, days before an election.
Speaker 2: Did she just remove herself from Joe Biden? Is this
Speaker 2: why Joe Biden wasn't invited last night?
Speaker 7: Well, I mean I think Joe Biden he was there
Speaker 7: last night, but no, obviously not the rally.
Speaker 8: But this election is about her and her vision.
Speaker 7: I mean in a few days gonna, We're gonna, We're
Speaker 7: gonna watch Joe Biden fly off in a helicopter. And
Speaker 7: I think he was one of our greatest presidents, particularly
Speaker 7: in terms of defending democracy here at home and abroad.
Speaker 7: I think he'll go down in the record books for
Speaker 7: that work he did. That's so pivotal to protecting our democracy.
Speaker 7: But this election is about her, her vision for the
Speaker 7: future and what she's gonna do for the American people.
Speaker 7: When she talks about a new way forward, it's actually
Speaker 7: kind of a genius slogan, I think, because when you
Speaker 7: talk about new way versus old way, who's the old way?
Speaker 7: Donald Trump, Joe Biden? Where are we're going? Not backward forward?
Speaker 7: So a new Way forward separates her from Trump and
Speaker 7: Biden interesting and presents a contrast which I think is amazing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked last evening on the late edition of
Speaker 2: Balance of Power about what was said at Madison Square Garden,
Speaker 2: the outrage and some of the lasting We really can't
Speaker 2: quantify impact that this might have on young Latino voters,
Speaker 2: on Puerto Rican voters who both campaigns are struggling to reach. Now,
Speaker 2: is there an equivalency here?
Speaker 7: No, not at all because two things. Number one, take
Speaker 7: it decide that we just it's not appropriate freebody to
Speaker 7: refer to anybody as trash or garbage. Number Two, I
Speaker 7: think the what the what President Biden did say about
Speaker 7: President Trump's supporters, They are already fired up. They are
Speaker 7: not going to get fired up anymore. I don't know
Speaker 7: if there's a Trump supporter that isn't going to come
Speaker 7: hell or high water and go vote. The Puerto Rican
Speaker 7: community is ideologically, you're incohesive like they are. They range
Speaker 7: the political spectrum. They probably lean more Democratic once they
Speaker 7: come over to the States on the island of Puerto Rico,
Speaker 7: which you know, you know, it's an American territories. The
Speaker 7: people that were born there are American citizens, but the
Speaker 7: parties are differentiated around the question of statehood. It's not
Speaker 7: like the parties are differentiated here. When they come over here,
Speaker 7: they lean demmer, but they're still gettable, they're still persuadable,
Speaker 7: and in key districts, including in the Pennsylvania, there's a
Speaker 7: huge swath of them. So Donald Trump had the Donald
Speaker 7: Trump probably hurt himself with a key constituency of swing voters.
Speaker 7: I don't know that Joe Biden's comment last night offended,
Speaker 7: I mean may have offended, but it's not going to
Speaker 7: change any persuadable voters' minds in this up.
Speaker 2: Well, anyone who would associate themselves, I think with Donald
Speaker 2: Trump insulted by that remark, would never vote for Joe
Speaker 2: Biden anyway.
Speaker 3: Right, So not a needle mover.
Speaker 7: And again it wasn't the candidate. I Kamala has said
Speaker 7: that one understood, very different conversation understood.
Speaker 2: So I like talking with you because you're a practitioner.
Speaker 2: There are partisans and there are practitioners, and you make
Speaker 2: no qualms about being a Democrat. We know where you're
Speaker 2: coming from. But you've been a chief of staff, You've
Speaker 2: helped to run campaigns, and that's why I like to
Speaker 2: get in your head a little bit here about this
Speaker 2: moment that we're in. Polls are tied, everybody's doing gut
Speaker 2: check right now, nobody really knows what they're talking about.
Speaker 2: How are you looking at the closing stages of this
Speaker 2: with the information that we have.
Speaker 7: So the hardest part about running a campaign, and I've
Speaker 7: run several, is developing the model. What you're trying to
Speaker 7: do every time you do a poll you're running it
Speaker 7: through a model. What you're trying to predict with the
Speaker 7: model is what is the electric going to look like
Speaker 7: on election day? And then you input the results you
Speaker 7: got from your polling and spits out a formula, and
Speaker 7: that's where we get So the results you see in
Speaker 7: polling are calculated through a formula, they're not actually.
Speaker 8: The actual big curve on this correct.
Speaker 7: The problem is that modeling is based on data, and
Speaker 7: we don't have any data to suggest how a lot
Speaker 7: of voters in this election are going to vote. For
Speaker 7: the first time in history, you're going to see partisan
Speaker 7: Republicans vote for a Democrat for president, Liz Cheney, Mett Romney.
Speaker 7: You're going to see a bunch of people that have
Speaker 7: never voted in their lives come out and vote for
Speaker 7: Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: You can't measure that.
Speaker 7: You can't there's no way. There's no way to measure,
Speaker 7: So you're kind of basing it on gut experience a
Speaker 7: little bit. I suspect that if you're persuadable right now
Speaker 7: nine to ten, you're gonna fall Kamala's way, because if
Speaker 7: you don't have an opinion on Donald Trump by now,
Speaker 7: you don't like him by now, you're never gonna yeah,
Speaker 7: and so, but I do think he's got the big
Speaker 7: problem of taking these what we call low propensity voters
Speaker 7: who are scattered across America, particularly in rural area, and
Speaker 7: you've got to get them to vote for the very
Speaker 7: first time. They got to figure out how to register,
Speaker 7: where to show up, but ida bring how to do it, Yes,
Speaker 7: and when there's no muscle memory, that's a hard task.
Speaker 7: So they're both an equally difficult task here. I just
Speaker 7: don't know what is going to say. My gut is
Speaker 7: she will win because she has invested so much money
Speaker 7: in gootv so she not only is going to grow
Speaker 7: her reach into persuadables, she's also going to grow her base,
Speaker 7: so she can go both directions. He can only grow
Speaker 7: his base.
Speaker 2: Okay, so that's your gut here to what extent is
Speaker 2: early voting factoring in to the way you're looking at this,
Speaker 2: d's versus ours pulling ballots?
Speaker 3: Or is that too noisy because there.
Speaker 2: Are potentially ours pulling ballots voting for Kamala Harr Right.
Speaker 7: So the assumption is that every r goes votes yes
Speaker 7: for Donald Trump. We know that's not true the selection,
Speaker 7: but you gotta understand the fastest growing party in the
Speaker 7: country is independence or non parties an affiliates depending on
Speaker 7: your state. You really have no idea how they're going
Speaker 7: to vote. You assume it's probably based on the polling
Speaker 7: fifty to fifty, but we don't know. And the other
Speaker 7: thing is the more important thing about early voting is
Speaker 7: the micro impact. You Most campaigns have a universe of
Speaker 7: voters that they need to make sure they go vote
Speaker 7: because they know that they are going to vote for
Speaker 7: them one hundred percent. And for instance, like the in
Speaker 7: the democratic world, like pockets of older black voters, pockets
Speaker 7: of older women, or or you know, white college educated
Speaker 7: women are going to vote. So in those pockets, we
Speaker 7: want to make sure as many people in those areas
Speaker 7: turn out as possible. So from micro perspective, you're chasing
Speaker 7: each ballot. You're calling that voter, have you voted yet,
Speaker 7: every day to get them out to vote. That's really
Speaker 7: where it's about. That's how you can drive up your
Speaker 7: you're sent you want to bank as many votes as
Speaker 7: you can by election day, Yes, because no one knows
Speaker 7: what happens on election and you never know, maybe there's
Speaker 7: a hurricane or there's a tornado or bad weather or snow,
Speaker 7: and that prevents people from voting. But if that happens,
Speaker 7: you want to make sure your your site has already
Speaker 7: banked their votes.
Speaker 3: How likely?
Speaker 2: How possible is it that, as we hear Trump supporters
Speaker 2: are undersampled, that there are biases in polling that misrepresent
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's base. You could also wake up and say, wow,
Speaker 2: this was five points in the other direction.
Speaker 7: So I equate this as you know, like a I
Speaker 7: was a former chief staff to a Florida member. Yes,
Speaker 7: you know, we got in hurricanes. The models the show
Speaker 7: I can get from Miami to DC. That's where we
Speaker 7: are right now. We're weak out. We don't know where
Speaker 7: the hurricanes hitting. We don't know.
Speaker 8: Spaghetti chart, Yes, spaghetti charge.
Speaker 7: I've seen models that can go to an overwhelmingly Kamma
Speaker 7: of victory because we dramatically undercounted the number of Independents
Speaker 7: and Republicans are going to vote for her. And then
Speaker 7: in other areas you could possibly see New York be
Speaker 7: closer than it has ever had because he's running up
Speaker 7: the numbers so high in all of America?
Speaker 8: Is that going to make enough difference?
Speaker 7: I've seen more models suggest a Comma victory than his,
Speaker 7: but doesn't matter. You just need the one model to
Speaker 7: do it. This is great happen.
Speaker 2: This is exactly the conversation that's taking place in strategy
Speaker 2: meetings in Washington. This one minute left here, Brad. There's
Speaker 2: a thought that this will also based on the last election.
Speaker 2: Maybe take till the following Saturday. Where are you on
Speaker 2: votes being counted, in races being called?
Speaker 8: You know, I suspect that. I suspect that we will
Speaker 8: know sooner.
Speaker 7: I think more Americans are getting more comfortable and confident
Speaker 7: in early in person voting and voting by mail. You've
Speaker 7: even seen Republicans come around to it, and that's where
Speaker 7: you're really were. A lot of people are trying to
Speaker 7: see the Republican surgeon mail voting as some kind of
Speaker 7: sign of Republican strength. I'm like, no, your candidate four
Speaker 7: years ago was calling it illegal. So they've come around,
Speaker 7: dropped that rhetoric, and they're turning out. And so what
Speaker 7: we're looking at is how is that going to play out?
Speaker 7: I think what's going to likely to happen. We'll know
Speaker 7: the presidency soon. Yeah, maybe the West Coast House races
Speaker 7: where we come down to control of the House. We
Speaker 7: may not control the House residency like by Thursday. I
Speaker 7: predict we may know by Wednesday.
Speaker 3: Wow, Brad Howard, this is great.
Speaker 2: You know what that would have cost you to go
Speaker 2: to Corcoran Street Group to get that seminar. Thank you
Speaker 2: for being with us. As always, I'm Joe Matthew. This
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 9: Here in Washington, where we have an eye on the
Speaker 9: campaign trail and some news we've gotten from the highest
Speaker 9: court in the country that is shaping the way this
Speaker 9: is going to go down. Within the last twenty four hours,
Speaker 9: they've ruled that Virginia can remove voters from voter rolls
Speaker 9: who are found to be non citizens based on DMV data.
Speaker 9: Also ruling that RFK Junior, who is no longer in
Speaker 9: the presidential race, he is back Donald Trump, will stay
Speaker 9: on the ballot in two crucial swing states, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Speaker 9: And I was fascinated Joe by new data we got
Speaker 9: from CNN, the poll conducted by SSSRs that finds Michigan
Speaker 9: is a lead for Harris forty eight to forty three
Speaker 9: compared to Donald Trump and Wisconsin. She's leading fifty one
Speaker 9: to forty five. And RFK Junior in those states has
Speaker 9: three percent support in Michigan magic one percent support in Wisconsin.
Speaker 6: So he could be a factor here.
Speaker 3: To think, it's these two states.
Speaker 2: Somehow we've left out Pennsylvania here, but these two incredibly
Speaker 2: important blue wall states RFK Junior on the ballot, even
Speaker 2: a half percentage point could tip the scale here, remembering
Speaker 2: it was a three tenths of one percent gap in
Speaker 2: our Bloomberg News swing state poll. Fewer as close as Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: And the fact of the matter is the same can
Speaker 2: be said for the Senate race there too close to
Speaker 2: call within the margin in the most recent data that
Speaker 2: I could find. Suffolk University with USA today at two
Speaker 2: point race between Senator Tammy Baldwin and her Republican challenger
Speaker 2: Eric Hovety, who joined us on the program here two
Speaker 2: weeks ago. It's Senator Baldwin's turn. Now the Democrat from Wisconsin,
Speaker 2: sat down on her campaign bus earlier today with Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: David Goura, who was criss crossing the country forest landing
Speaker 2: today in the swing state of Wisconsin, and he joins
Speaker 2: us right now from Green Bay.
Speaker 3: David, what'd you learn?
Speaker 10: We talked a lot about the economists you might expect,
Speaker 10: and I think there is a really clear distinction to
Speaker 10: be drawn between these two candidates on that issue. You
Speaker 10: mentioned the interview that you did a couple of weeks
Speaker 10: ago with Eric Hovedy, and he's a fascinating character in
Speaker 10: many ways. He is somebody who is a banker with
Speaker 10: a lot of money and spends a lot of time
Speaker 10: in California, as Tammy Baldwin is very fond of pointing out.
Speaker 10: But he asked kind of a nuanced plan for what
Speaker 10: he might do with healthcare, and nuance plan for what
Speaker 10: he might do with taxes, and so we kind of
Speaker 10: grounded some of our conversation this morning with Senator Baldwin
Speaker 10: on the issue of taxation. She noted that he is
Speaker 10: in favor largely of extending those Trump era tax cuts.
Speaker 10: She said that she's in favor of kind of a
Speaker 10: more tailored approach, trying to help those working class and
Speaker 10: middle class voters who've been her bulwark of support for
Speaker 10: many years, both in the House and the Senate. You know,
Speaker 10: I've been traveling with her over the course of these
Speaker 10: last couple of days. She's taking a bus around this state.
Speaker 10: We started out in the southern part of Wisconsin, made
Speaker 10: our way to Sheboygan yesterday than Green Bay today. When
Speaker 10: we were in Sheboyg and I talked to somebody about
Speaker 10: what that city is like historically, what it's like today.
Speaker 10: And we've talked an awful lot about manufacturing, and he said,
Speaker 10: look around here. There used to be all of these
Speaker 10: great companies. Kohler of course, which makes faucets and sinks
Speaker 10: and any number of things you might find in your
Speaker 10: kitchen or your bathroom, used to have a huge footprint
Speaker 10: in that city. It's been greatly reduced. I asked her
Speaker 10: what she would say to him about the state of
Speaker 10: manufacturing in this state. Take a listen to what she
Speaker 10: had to say.
Speaker 11: Consider myself one of the buy America champion of the
Speaker 11: United States Senate. So when we're passing big pieces of legislation,
Speaker 11: we got to make sure there's buy American rules attached
Speaker 11: to this, and I was successful in getting permanent by
Speaker 11: America rules attached to the Infrastructure Bill, to the Chips
Speaker 11: and Science Act, to the Inflation Reduction Act. That is
Speaker 11: bringing jobs back to Wisconsin right now and keeping some
Speaker 11: jobs here that might otherwise have left.
Speaker 10: So she has a fixed those to a lot of
Speaker 10: these spending bills and it has made a difference, she
Speaker 10: told me during that interview today. But she has an
Speaker 10: opponent who is largely lock and step with former President
Speaker 10: Trump on the issue of tariffs and making promises that
Speaker 10: we could see a renaissance of manufacturing in the state,
Speaker 10: in this country where a lot of these companies would
Speaker 10: come back. That's what she's up against. The former president
Speaker 10: is going to be here tonight in Green Bay for
Speaker 10: a big rally. As you mentioned, Kamala Harris, the Vice
Speaker 10: President is going to be in this state as well,
Speaker 10: so as you might expect, the economy front and center
Speaker 10: for Senator Baldwin for a lot of the folks that
Speaker 10: she was talking to as I was on the campaign
Speaker 10: trail with her yesterday, guys, well, yeah.
Speaker 9: And we know former President Trump when he is in
Speaker 9: Wisconsin this evening will be alongside Brett Farv the former
Speaker 9: Packers quarterback. So once again we're seeing these campaigns leaning
Speaker 9: on the power of celebrity in these final days. David,
Speaker 9: give us a sense of also what Wisconsin is like
Speaker 9: right now in terms of early voting, how many ballots
Speaker 9: have already been cast and therefore how many minds could
Speaker 9: be influenced to vote for Baldwin or Huddy or Trump
Speaker 9: or Harris for that matter.
Speaker 10: Well, Senator Baldin's campaign is really pushing her supporters to
Speaker 10: vote early, saying it will lessen the load on poll workers,
Speaker 10: you know, find the time to do it, it'll make
Speaker 10: things go more smoothly on election day itself. But you
Speaker 10: bring up these kind of celebrity studied events that both
Speaker 10: of these National Party candidates are holding here, I think
Speaker 10: it's a really interesting contrast between that and yes, Senator
Speaker 10: Balden will be at the event with Kamala, Harris and
Speaker 10: Madison later today with the kind of events that she
Speaker 10: was holding yesterday. These were pretty small event with a
Speaker 10: few dozen people volunteers who are knocking on doors doing
Speaker 10: the hard work of trying to convince largely fellow Democrats
Speaker 10: to make sure that they get off the couch leave
Speaker 10: their homes, go and vote early or on election day,
Speaker 10: and she was really giving them kind of her advice
Speaker 10: on how to do that. Come to those doors with
Speaker 10: the reason why they're doing it, enumerate what the issues
Speaker 10: are that are important to them, and then seal the deal,
Speaker 10: as she put it, get them to commit to voting
Speaker 10: in this election. You know, you talked at the top
Speaker 10: just about how close these polls are, how thin these
Speaker 10: margins are. She is very aware of that, talked about
Speaker 10: that a lot during the course of the speeches that
Speaker 10: I heard yesterday, and really was making the case to
Speaker 10: those volunteers that if they can secure really just a
Speaker 10: handful of people to go to the polls more, that
Speaker 10: could have a fundamental difference at the precinct level across
Speaker 10: the state.
Speaker 9: Turn Out is everything in Wisconsin and elsewhere. David gera
Speaker 9: Bloomberg correspondent live in Wisconsin, Thank you so much. Great
Speaker 9: interview with Senator Baldwin. As we consider here what it
Speaker 9: is going to take to turn people out who may
Speaker 9: still be undecided as to whether.
Speaker 6: They want to vote all in this cycle.
Speaker 9: Interesting as we away here the closing messages of the
Speaker 9: campaigns to try to drive that for Kamala Harris, as
Speaker 9: we saw evidence yesterday at the Ellipse here in Washington,
Speaker 9: and part this argument is about protecting democracy in a world.
Speaker 2: Where turnout matters. I guess you could say crowd size
Speaker 2: as an indication. Seventy five thousand people on the Ellipse.
Speaker 2: They had to get an additional permit, I guess, to
Speaker 2: allow these people, and we saw images of people in
Speaker 2: line for half a mile.
Speaker 3: To get into this.
Speaker 2: The question is who outside of Washington was watching and
Speaker 2: listening as Kamala Harris did address the nation from the Ellipse.
Speaker 2: And what will be very familiar if you're with us
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. Very familiar optics, same staging,
Speaker 2: same podium, flags, same location where Donald Trump spoke in
Speaker 2: front of the White House on January sixth. Here's Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris from last night on.
Speaker 12: Day one, If elected, Donald Trump would walk into that
Speaker 12: office with an enemy's list. When elected, I will walk
Speaker 12: in with a to do list full of priorities of
Speaker 12: what I will get done for the American people. And
Speaker 12: I will work with everyone, Democrats, Republicans and independents.
Speaker 9: For more on this, We're joined now here in our
Speaker 9: Washington d C Studio by former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy of Florida,
Speaker 9: who was a member of the select committee that investigated
Speaker 9: the January sixth attack on the Capitol. Congresswoman, welcome back
Speaker 9: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you for being with us.
Speaker 9: You obviously have spent countless time pouring through Trump's speech
Speaker 9: at the Ellipse that he gave on that day, everything
Speaker 9: that happened in the aftermath. To see Kamala Harris yesterday
Speaker 9: standing in that same spot with this kind of messaging,
Speaker 9: what did it make you think?
Speaker 13: It made me think that she's continuing to run a
Speaker 13: very disciplined campaign, and that speech was meant to be
Speaker 13: both a visual and a verbal contrast to Donald Trump,
Speaker 13: you know, and it actually, just as an American, gave
Speaker 13: me hope to see a normal, more normal politician using
Speaker 13: the backdrop of the White House to deliver messages that
Speaker 13: were about unity and also about the substance of what
Speaker 13: it is that she's going to do. She did remind
Speaker 13: people of what he called for. You know, he asked
Speaker 13: people to fight like hell when he last stood on
Speaker 13: that stage in front of that White House and to
Speaker 13: attack the capital. He was going to go with them,
Speaker 13: but then he decided not to, And so I think
Speaker 13: in part she was doing a little bit of a
Speaker 13: persuadable with a contrast message, But she was also giving
Speaker 13: those people who are a little Trump shy because of
Speaker 13: how they feel he behaved on January sixth a reminder
Speaker 13: of why they shouldn't vote for him and continue to
Speaker 13: be a part of this broader coalition that she's trying
Speaker 13: to build.
Speaker 2: It's getting high remarks on a well written speech, if
Speaker 2: not also a well delivered one, But there were questions
Speaker 2: about the very venue that we're describing here. Powerful optics
Speaker 2: last night, but in a tied presidential campaign in seven
Speaker 2: swing states, a lot of politicos said, why Washington, That's
Speaker 2: the last place you'd want to be seen, how about you.
Speaker 13: I think one of the things that she has been
Speaker 13: criticized for people when you talk to focus groups, they
Speaker 13: wonder whether or not she can be presidential. The way
Speaker 13: that stage was set up with the flags in the
Speaker 13: White House, that was to provide the image of what
Speaker 13: it would look like for her to be presidential. And
Speaker 13: as you said, people have given really high marks to
Speaker 13: the way she delivered that speech and what it was
Speaker 13: She said it was her showing the American people that
Speaker 13: she is able to be presidential well.
Speaker 9: As she was trying to show what she would be
Speaker 9: like as president. The person who is currently president, almost simultaneously,
Speaker 9: perhaps caused a bit of an issue for her campaign.
Speaker 9: Joe Biden, ad virtual call with Oto Latino, whether he
Speaker 9: intended to or not, referred to Trump supporters as garbage.
Speaker 9: How much of the progress Harris made on that stage
Speaker 9: last night, if any, was undone by that gaff.
Speaker 13: I think that gap is the reason why so many
Speaker 13: Democrats were relieved when he chose to step aside, because
Speaker 13: it's gaffs like that that really create headlines and draw
Speaker 13: the attention away from some of the things that the
Speaker 13: Trump campaign is doing. I mean, they had a very
Speaker 13: insulting comedian come up, and they, unlike Harris, have not
Speaker 13: stepped away from their comments. She has said very clearly
Speaker 13: that she does not disparage anybody who has different political
Speaker 13: opinions than hers, and that she plans to represent everybody,
Speaker 13: whether they worked with her or elected her or not.
Speaker 13: And you haven't seen that kind of distance created between
Speaker 13: Trump and what the comedian said about Puerto Ricans and
Speaker 13: about other minority groups.
Speaker 2: Did you like the way Kamala Harris handled that this morning?
Speaker 2: Should she have been more forceful and distancing herself from
Speaker 2: Joe Bidener condemning the remark?
Speaker 13: I think she was very clear where she was condemning
Speaker 13: the remark. I think on a number of issues where
Speaker 13: she has been attacked, she has been very clear in
Speaker 13: using language that shuts out any doubt of where she stands.
Speaker 13: I'll give a good example when she was speaking to
Speaker 13: Telemundo in the Latino community, she called herself a pragmatic capitalist,
Speaker 13: and the only way to blunt the socialist attacks against
Speaker 13: her is that resonate with that community is to call
Speaker 13: to identify herself as a pragmatic capitalism. And so I
Speaker 13: think taking those messages head on as she has is
Speaker 13: the right thing to do well.
Speaker 9: And she is six days still to make those messages resonate.
Speaker 9: But then election day will be upon us. Obviously, voting
Speaker 9: is well underway in a lot of places across the country.
Speaker 9: But what are you hearing, especially with those you worked with,
Speaker 9: looking into the events of January sixth and the efforts
Speaker 9: to overturn the results of the last election, about what
Speaker 9: is taking place even down to the local level, at
Speaker 9: polling places, what are you bracing for on election.
Speaker 6: Day and in the aftermath.
Speaker 13: You know, I think there's a lot of concern, obviously,
Speaker 13: because a third of the country still doesn't believe that
Speaker 13: the twenty twenty election was a free and fair outcome,
Speaker 13: and so we're up against a lot of headwinds. But
Speaker 13: I think there's been a lot of progress that has
Speaker 13: been made. The Congress passed election reform laws that would
Speaker 13: raise the threshold or did raise the threshold on the
Speaker 13: number of members that would need to contest and vote
Speaker 13: not to certify to twenty percent. So that's a little
Speaker 13: bit better than where we were standing in twenty twenty.
Speaker 13: And then I think at the local level, people have
Speaker 13: been making efforts to ensure that the process is transparent
Speaker 13: and that they can deliver a free and fair election,
Speaker 13: as our democracy deserves.
Speaker 2: You made reference, congresswomen to the remarks that we heard
Speaker 2: at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, the lack of
Speaker 2: an apology that we've I guess not heard from the
Speaker 2: Trump campaign in this case. What does this mean in
Speaker 2: terms of an impact on Latino voters who were offended
Speaker 2: by this Puerto Rico garbage island line in a state
Speaker 2: like yours in Florida.
Speaker 13: So in Florida, I'm a little concerned that the margins
Speaker 13: might be so significant. From a lot of the other
Speaker 13: groups that may not you may not see a difference,
Speaker 13: But in Pennsylvania, certainly, with four hundred thousand Puerto Ricans,
Speaker 13: you're going to see some difference. I represent in one
Speaker 13: of the communities that had the highest number of Puerto
Speaker 13: Rican in my district when I was in Congress, and
Speaker 13: they're deeply proud, people deeply offended by what was said,
Speaker 13: and it reinforces.
Speaker 14: The sense that.
Speaker 13: The island is an afterthought for the Trump administration, especially
Speaker 13: in the way that they handled Maria.
Speaker 2: Well, we saw Rick Scott didn't waste any time responding.
Speaker 13: So yeah, that's the politician in him, understanding that he
Speaker 13: has a statewide reelect and he can't afford to let
Speaker 13: any group go.
Speaker 9: Some Democrats we've spoken with have suggested that that re
Speaker 9: elect he could actually lose. Do you believe that when
Speaker 9: you look at some of those same demographics you were
Speaker 9: just alluding to in Florida.
Speaker 13: Well, I certainly hope that that's the case, But I
Speaker 13: also understand and that elections are more than just about
Speaker 13: selling hope. They're about having field operations and a strong
Speaker 13: ground game and infrastructure within the state. And I just
Speaker 13: while I hope that happens, I'm concerned a little bit
Speaker 13: about the state broadly.
Speaker 2: Did you have a word for the Vice President after
Speaker 2: that speech last night?
Speaker 7: I know she invited you to be there.
Speaker 13: No, I didn't speak with her.
Speaker 7: What would you have told her when she was done?
Speaker 13: Well, that I am looking forward to a new generation
Speaker 13: of leadership in this country and that it's time that
Speaker 13: we do move past all of this, and that I
Speaker 13: certainly appreciate her drawing contrast between someone who has an
Speaker 13: enemy's list, since I think I might be on that one,
Speaker 13: and somebody who has a to do list focused on
Speaker 13: serving the American people.
Speaker 2: It's good to see you back in Washington. Thanks us
Speaker 2: always for joining us. Former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy from
Speaker 2: Florida with us at the table here in Washington. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here on the fastest show
Speaker 2: in Politics. You're with us here, Kaylie, we'll have to
Speaker 2: assemble the panel next.
Speaker 9: Yep, Brick and Laura are going to be with us
Speaker 9: today as we continue to assess these final six days
Speaker 9: of the campaign, as the candidates are criss crossing the
Speaker 9: swing states as we speak. We'll have more ahead on
Speaker 9: Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and
Speaker 1: then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 9: Missy's Balance of Power Show, in which we've spent the
Speaker 9: last several days talking about the aftermath of the Sunday
Speaker 9: rally at Madison Square Garden, where Donald Trump and a
Speaker 9: number of other speakers were there, and of course many
Speaker 9: of their remarks made some noise in political circles and elsewhere,
Speaker 9: reverberating well through swing states like Pennsylvania that have high
Speaker 9: Puerto Rican populations, specific to, of course, the joke made
Speaker 9: by comedian Tony Hinchcliff about Puerto Rico being an island
Speaker 9: of garbage. But if you thought the garbage references were
Speaker 9: going to end there, they did not, because then President
Speaker 9: Joe Biden, in a virtual call with Voda Latino last night,
Speaker 9: had this to say about his garbage.
Speaker 4: And just the other day, I speaker at his rally
Speaker 4: called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage, the only
Speaker 4: garbage I see floating down there, as his supporters.
Speaker 2: Now, the White House has gone out of its way
Speaker 2: to try to clarify Joe Biden's remarks, suggesting that this
Speaker 2: is a matter of punctuation, that that was a possessive
Speaker 2: it's the powerful apostrophe that we were missing there. Didn't
Speaker 2: stop the Trump campaign from raising money on it. An
Speaker 2: email blast went out immediately after, saying you are not garbage.
Speaker 3: I love you.
Speaker 2: You are the best our nation has to offer. Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris was called to respond on her way out of
Speaker 2: town this morning, on her way to the Swing States.
Speaker 2: Once again, reporters caught up with her on the tarmac.
Speaker 3: Here's how she framed it.
Speaker 5: First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me
Speaker 5: be claire, I soldly disagree with any criticism of people
Speaker 5: based on who they vote for. As you've heard in
Speaker 5: my speech last night and continuously throughout my career.
Speaker 14: I believe that the work.
Speaker 5: That I do is about representing all the people, whether
Speaker 5: they support me or not. And as President of the
Speaker 5: niaia says I will be a president for all Americans,
Speaker 5: whether you vote from.
Speaker 3: Me or not.
Speaker 2: Does it move the needle in this campaign? We assemble
Speaker 2: our political panel to explore that question. Rick Davis is
Speaker 2: with US Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner at
Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital, joined today by Laura Fink, Rebel Communications
Speaker 2: founder and CEO, Democratic strategist. Great to have you both
Speaker 2: with us here, Rick, what's your thought on the noise
Speaker 2: around this whole controversy to clean up the response? Does
Speaker 2: this actually impact a voter who hasn't already made up
Speaker 2: their mind?
Speaker 15: You know, almost by abstentia, I mean, in other words,
Speaker 15: if you're talking about cleaning up you know, your comments,
Speaker 15: or trying to do damage control around somebody else's at
Speaker 15: your event, you're not actually making the pitch to voters.
Speaker 15: This is your last chance to pitch directly to voters.
Speaker 15: You want to be talking about things they care about,
Speaker 15: not trying to play, you know, clean up with the
Speaker 15: media over some controversy that's self inflicted. And in both
Speaker 15: these cases you know they were self inflicted. I would
Speaker 15: say advantage Harris only because you know the comments by
Speaker 15: the President aren't going to disrupt anybody voting for Harris
Speaker 15: because they were about people who've already made a decision
Speaker 15: to vote for Trump. Right, it's kind of self identified.
Speaker 15: But the tax on Puerto Ricans at his event in
Speaker 15: Madison Square Garden will directly affect how Puerto Rican voters
Speaker 15: in places like Pennsylvania, where it just was yesterday, you know,
Speaker 15: look at his candidacy and who they're going to vote for.
Speaker 15: So it's not a moral equivalent. One has a potential
Speaker 15: voter impact and the other probably doesn't.
Speaker 9: Well, so when we consider the actual voter the campaign impact, Laura,
Speaker 9: we were just speaking with former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy who
Speaker 9: said this from Biden last night, Whether intended or not,
Speaker 9: this kind of gaff is why Democrats are glad he
Speaker 9: is no longer the candidate. So if that is the
Speaker 9: thought here, what role should he be playing on the
Speaker 9: next six days of this campaign, the last six days
Speaker 9: of this campaign?
Speaker 6: If any I think we maybe muted, Laura, there we go.
Speaker 16: Oh, I can hear we can hear you now, Okay,
Speaker 16: I was just saying that that he can stand down.
Speaker 14: That's the role that an incumbent president should play.
Speaker 16: And I think in particular because of the gender dynamics,
Speaker 16: because she's running to be the first woman president of
Speaker 16: the United States. She doesn't need the shadow of Joe Biden.
Speaker 16: And also he's unpopular, so he knows to stand down.
Speaker 16: He has stood down for the last several months, and
Speaker 16: he should do the same this kind of gaff I
Speaker 16: agree with the congresswoman. This is why the change needed
Speaker 16: to happen. This is why you see Kamala Harris with
Speaker 16: precision and message discipline as she turned his gaff back
Speaker 16: to her consistent themes of unity and a lack of
Speaker 16: division and a lack of the ugliness.
Speaker 14: So she was able to pivot. But he did. I
Speaker 14: agree with Rick. He stole a day.
Speaker 16: There's an opportunity cost here for the Harris campaign where
Speaker 16: she gave an incredible speech last night to unify the country,
Speaker 16: and he's immediately distracting from that.
Speaker 14: So it's a bummer.
Speaker 16: But these are the things that happened in campaigns, and
Speaker 16: you got to keep going.
Speaker 2: It's not like Joe Biden was a major feature on
Speaker 2: the campaign trail for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: At this point, Laura, will.
Speaker 2: We not see him again on a stage with her
Speaker 2: between now and next Tuesday.
Speaker 14: I don't think you. I don't think you're going to
Speaker 14: see him before election day.
Speaker 16: He knows the best thing that he can do is
Speaker 16: to stand aside and in fact, you know, letting people
Speaker 16: lead and playing the role that is required and needed
Speaker 16: of you is what the entire Democratic surrogate operation has
Speaker 16: done quite well. I would say it's a significant advantage
Speaker 16: over Trump's, not just in terms of the diversity and
Speaker 16: the size of the surrogate base, but also their willingness
Speaker 16: to lean in and to go where they are going
Speaker 16: to be most effective. We saw it with surrogates like
Speaker 16: Michelle Obama and Barack Obama. We saw it with Republican
Speaker 16: Liz Cheney. We are seeing it with the generals that
Speaker 16: are coming out in their own way and striking a
Speaker 16: contrast between Harris and Trump. So the team is hitting
Speaker 16: its marks, and this is just one misstep one day.
Speaker 9: Well, So as we consider the words of Joe Biden here, Rick,
Speaker 9: I'd like to talk about some of the words Donald
Speaker 9: Trump is using, specifically as it pertains to the vote
Speaker 9: in Pennsylvania. He posted on true Social this morning alleging
Speaker 9: that there is quote cheating in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 6: Others followed up.
Speaker 9: Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia, suggested that the
Speaker 9: steal is on in Pennsylvania. Perhaps you're laying the groundwork
Speaker 9: to contest the results of that state. But what might
Speaker 9: that signal to you, Rick about the internals the Trump
Speaker 9: campaign is seeing. If Donald Trump is already saying this
Speaker 9: thing was stolen.
Speaker 15: Yeah, we actually are seeing a pretty aggressive push in
Speaker 15: the color counties around Philadelphia on early vote. Probably not
Speaker 15: great for the Trump campaign. And my guess is as
Speaker 15: soon as you started seeing that is when these claims
Speaker 15: of theft or irregularities cropped up. When I talk to
Speaker 15: people who are involved in election law, you know, they
Speaker 15: don't think they've had anything unusual happen in Pennsylvania other
Speaker 15: than the typical election week or you know, election month
Speaker 15: activity related to balloting. And so you know, he's working
Speaker 15: the ref he's already laying out the predicate that if
Speaker 15: he loses. I don't think there's anybody I know who
Speaker 15: would question that, he will call foul. He'll you know,
Speaker 15: get his lawyers to issue a bunch of lawsuits against
Speaker 15: you know, various jurisdictions, all in targeted states, all untargeted
Speaker 15: counties to try and contest the election once again. The
Speaker 15: fact that he's doing it before we've even voted is
Speaker 15: actually pretty typically did it in twenty sixteen even when
Speaker 15: he won, and obviously he did it very aggressively before
Speaker 15: the vote in twenty twenty. So I think that this
Speaker 15: is just another one of these things that is a distraction.
Speaker 15: But it does remind voters that this is the kind
Speaker 15: of chaos that they experienced with Trump, you know, when
Speaker 15: he was president ending his term and the whole January
Speaker 15: sixth thing kind of comes flooding back, and I'm not
Speaker 15: sure that's particularly a good thing for him.
Speaker 2: Two important Supreme Court rulings today, Laura, that I want
Speaker 2: to ask you about. One of them involves purging voter
Speaker 2: roles in Virginia. The other involves two swing states here
Speaker 2: that we've been talking about already this hour, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: The Supreme Court says OURFK. Junior will stay on the
Speaker 2: ballot in those two states, knowing how close the race is.
Speaker 2: Did the Supreme Court just win this for Kamala Harris?
Speaker 16: Well, the Supreme Court did what they should do in
Speaker 16: that decision, simply because the appeal was made far too late.
Speaker 16: If OURFK Junior did not want his name on the ballot,
Speaker 16: then he should have petitioned earlier or he should have
Speaker 16: decided not to run. So this is has been true
Speaker 16: in American politics forever and ever, so this is not new.
Speaker 14: And so the Supreme Court in this.
Speaker 16: Instance is reinforcing decades of precedent around election law, and
Speaker 16: that stability is what we need. In terms of the
Speaker 16: other case with respect to purging the voter rules, that
Speaker 16: is an overturn of precedent and two lower court decisions,
Speaker 16: and the purging of voter rules by Republican governors specific
Speaker 16: is a tactic that is folded into this same story
Speaker 16: that Rick was just talking about, where you are essentially
Speaker 16: saying there's election fraud particular to illegal immigrants, immigrants who
Speaker 16: are not documented in this country. And that's something that
Speaker 16: has been going on for a long time. And Trump
Speaker 16: affiliated groups have been filing lawsuits in swing states for
Speaker 16: the better part of the last six months. So they
Speaker 16: will continue to do this, and they have ceded this
Speaker 16: idea of voter fraud without evidence, and in contrast and
Speaker 16: contrary to what election officials are saying, all to sort
Speaker 16: of lay the groundwork for the claims once again that
Speaker 16: the election is stolen if they don't win.
Speaker 9: Well, Rick, if we consider this Virginia case, what the
Speaker 9: state argued was that their program where they removed these
Speaker 9: voters from the rules was based on information provided to
Speaker 9: the DMV where someone had to check a box to
Speaker 9: indicate they aren't a US citizen. Now, obviously, opponents to
Speaker 9: this have said that does leave room for potential error.
Speaker 9: People who are qualified to vote, maybe became naturalized citizens,
Speaker 9: could be removed when they shouldn't be. Do you see
Speaker 9: actual room for error here? Is this decision justified?
Speaker 15: Well, that's the biggest problem is there is always room
Speaker 15: for error. Right, anytime you systematically merge a file with
Speaker 15: another file, whether it's voter rolls and DMV data, you're
Speaker 15: going to have irregularities. Things aren't going to always fit.
Speaker 15: And that's what happened. From what I can tell in
Speaker 15: this case. I don't think anybody was going after an
Speaker 15: effort to try and disenfranchise US citizens from their vote.
Speaker 15: But that's why the law says, take you know, don't
Speaker 15: do these kinds of things within ninety days of the election,
Speaker 15: because you might have problems. And you know, we keep
Speaker 15: talking about, oh, you know, purging non voters, but like,
Speaker 15: if a voter is purged, you are you are violating
Speaker 15: their civil rights and it is against the constitution that
Speaker 15: allows them to have a vote. And even though Virginia
Speaker 15: only had about sixteen voters who were disenfranchised by this purge,
Speaker 15: who are in the process of being put back on rolls,
Speaker 15: this was done in Alabama and they purged three thousand,
Speaker 15: two hundred people, and two thousand of them were US citizens.
Speaker 15: So you know, it's the kind of thing where nobody's
Speaker 15: laying blame. It's just what happens when you merge liss
Speaker 15: and you don't want to do it too late in
Speaker 15: the process.
Speaker 9: All right, Rick Davis of stone Court Capital and Laura
Speaker 9: Fink of Rebel Communications our political panel today, Thank you
Speaker 9: so much for joining us. We have more ahead here
Speaker 9: on Balance of Power. Up next, we're going to take
Speaker 9: a look at how markets are viewing this election, specifically
Speaker 9: through the lens of crypto. That's ahead on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 9: and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us here on the Wednesday
Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: You can find us on YouTube right now as well
Speaker 2: search Bloomberg Business News Live. We'll save a seat for
Speaker 2: you here in the studio as we consider the impact
Speaker 2: or not the election is having on the markets. Amy
Speaker 2: was just talking about. We've had an ongoing conversation with
Speaker 2: Abigail Doolittle, Bloomberg Markets correspondent, who has been very effective
Speaker 2: at capturing this moment on Wall Street and the intersection
Speaker 2: of Washington and Wall Street, the Trump trade, the Harris trade,
Speaker 2: if there is one, and she's with us now six
Speaker 2: days out, Abigail, it's great to see you. This is
Speaker 2: a market obsessed with earnings, of course, we've got a
Speaker 2: lot of them today Google, AMD, Lily and so on.
Speaker 2: Is anyone thinking about the election while they're trading earnings?
Speaker 17: That is certainly the main story, Joe, and it's interesting
Speaker 17: volume for the S and P five hundred right now,
Speaker 17: about twenty percent above even twenty five percent above the
Speaker 17: twenty day moving average for the stock volume on that index,
Speaker 17: so investors very interested. But as Amy was talking about,
Speaker 17: the S and P five hundred barely moving despite those
Speaker 17: earnings movers beneath the surface alphabet up more than five percent,
Speaker 17: AMD down closer to ten percent that surface flat. I
Speaker 17: would say, in a way that may reflect some of
Speaker 17: the tug of war right before the election, but overall,
Speaker 17: the markets have been voting on this election for quite
Speaker 17: some time. Given the fact that the S and P
Speaker 17: five hundred year to date up more than twenty percent. Historically,
Speaker 17: as you both know, Joe and Kelly, the S and
Speaker 17: P five hundred stocks tend to do very well in
Speaker 17: presidential election years and this year is no exception. Again
Speaker 17: into today that SMP five hundred up a very healthy
Speaker 17: twenty percent.
Speaker 9: Well, okay, So if stocks are doing okay, there is
Speaker 9: the question about the bond market as well, which has
Speaker 9: been whipsided by a multitude of things, including the outlook
Speaker 9: for monetary policy. But can we say in the bomb
Speaker 9: market now, Abigail, it's more about fiscal policy than monetary
Speaker 9: at this point.
Speaker 14: So that's a.
Speaker 17: Great question, Kelly, because in terms of the stock market.
Speaker 17: If we were to break it down a little bit
Speaker 17: more in terms of that twenty percent gain, it's certainly
Speaker 17: leaning toward the former president Donald Trump, with DJT up
Speaker 17: about three hundred percent in recent weeks. We also have
Speaker 17: the Trump predicted higher than the Harris predicted, but relative
Speaker 17: to the bond market because the expectation, and this according
Speaker 17: to Steve soasnik Over an interactive broker, that broker that
Speaker 17: his fiscal policy could be super loose and it could
Speaker 17: mean problems for the budget. That yields could go higher
Speaker 17: if that continues. Because when yields go higher, that means
Speaker 17: liquidity is coming out of the system. That could actually
Speaker 17: in turn pressure stock. So we're keeping a very close
Speaker 17: eye on the bond market for sure. Those yields backing
Speaker 17: up in just the last couple of weeks a very
Speaker 17: big amount, by fifty to sixty basis point, depending on
Speaker 17: what yield, what bond, what note you're looking at.
Speaker 2: We see that they sitting at just about a twenty
Speaker 2: europe almost four percent. Kind of interesting to consider the
Speaker 2: potential for volatility around what happens next week Abigail. And
Speaker 2: then there's crypto. Wall Street seems to think they have
Speaker 2: this figured out, don't they.
Speaker 17: You know, it's interesting, so that VIX has really been
Speaker 17: a great tell that the three of us have been
Speaker 17: watching since July, the VIX curve months and months ago,
Speaker 17: around in eighteen, when the VIX itself had been at fifteen.
Speaker 17: So volatility back then at the time very low, but
Speaker 17: around the election high, and right now it's high. So
Speaker 17: investors a little bit wary in terms of what the
Speaker 17: result could be. Would it be you know, Willoughby, Harris
Speaker 17: or Trump, And some are saying that if a VP
Speaker 17: Harris is to win, that could be a near term
Speaker 17: negative for stocks because she may not be so friendly
Speaker 17: to taxes, especially around capital grains. There could be some
Speaker 17: profit taking. But to your point on crypto, it's very
Speaker 17: interesting right now bitcoin trading above seventy thousand dollars per bitcoin.
Speaker 17: The possible Trump administration considered to be crypto friendly, So
Speaker 17: that might be another way of markets weighing in on
Speaker 17: saying that they are voting for Donald Trump. But of
Speaker 17: course that is we don't know that that's the case.
Speaker 17: But markets right now, right across the board, seemed to
Speaker 17: be leaning a little bit red at least for the
Speaker 17: White House.
Speaker 9: Yeah, all right, Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail Doolittle, thank you
Speaker 9: so much. As Abigail points to what we're seeing in
Speaker 9: crypto in the notion that Donald Trump would be better
Speaker 9: for bitcoin and other digital assets, at least one person
Speaker 9: would disagree with that. Democratic Congressman Wiley Nickel of North Carolina,
Speaker 9: who was a leader of crypto for Harris zoom calls
Speaker 9: early in her candidacy and sits on the Financial Services Committee,
Speaker 9: had this to say on Bloomberg Crypto yesterday.
Speaker 18: Kamala Harris's position of protecting US consumers keeping digital innovation
Speaker 18: in the US puts you're squarely in line with the
Speaker 18: seventy one Democrats, including myself who supported FIT twenty one.
Speaker 18: So I think we've got a really good forward looking
Speaker 18: approach by Vice President Harris. And if I can say
Speaker 18: one thing about our opponent in this race, there's only
Speaker 18: one candidate running for president who's called crypto a scam,
Speaker 18: and that's Donald Trump, who did nothing on this issue
Speaker 18: for four years.
Speaker 9: So we want to dig more into the issue of
Speaker 9: crypto and specifically how it is shaping voter sentiment. With
Speaker 9: six days to go until election day, and we've got
Speaker 9: some new data out from Paradigm and their VP of
Speaker 9: Regulatory Affairs, Justin Slaughter is joining us now in our Washington,
Speaker 9: d C studio.
Speaker 6: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 19: Justin good to be back here, Gaily.
Speaker 9: Thanks for being with us, and thank you for this
Speaker 9: data which is incredibly insightful in terms of what it finds.
Speaker 9: You find five percent of all voters describe themselves as
Speaker 9: single issue crypto voters. What does the actual breakdown of
Speaker 9: that five percent look like?
Speaker 8: Great question.
Speaker 19: So to be clear, there's been a lot of discussion
Speaker 19: over the last few months about whether or not the
Speaker 19: significant amount of people who own crypto in American We
Speaker 19: have it as twenty percent of all registered and likely
Speaker 19: voters have bought crypto along with other polls, and it's
Speaker 19: not clear whether or not they will vote on that
Speaker 19: disc you know, purchase. So we asked those who bought
Speaker 19: crypto in the past, do you consider yourself a single
Speaker 19: issue crypto voter? And I'll read the wording exactly as
Speaker 19: it matters for polling. Do you consider yourself a single
Speaker 19: issue crypto voter? And the government policy on crypto is
Speaker 19: the most important policy you consider when selecting a candidate
Speaker 19: for office, and a quarter of those who bought crypto
Speaker 19: five percent of all likely voters say yes they are.
Speaker 19: This was a surprisingly large number in our view, especially
Speaker 19: given how close this election is. I mean, we're looking
Speaker 19: at one percent margins in all the key states.
Speaker 2: How about when it comes down to Trump versus Harris.
Speaker 2: Both have tried to.
Speaker 3: Seize on this.
Speaker 2: We could probably argue Donald Trump a little more aggressively,
Speaker 2: even getting into the family business to some extent, But
Speaker 2: Harris has tried to make clear her openness to new
Speaker 2: ideas to enhancing growth in crypto. But the industry seems
Speaker 2: to favor Trump. What did you learn?
Speaker 19: It was surprising because we're looking not at the industry
Speaker 19: but voters, and among crypto purchasers it's tied forty seven
Speaker 19: forty seven. This is better for Trump than in the
Speaker 19: overall ballot, which we have as forty eight forty six.
Speaker 19: But Harris has improved dramatically from where Biden was in March.
Speaker 19: When we asked this question March, asking who do you
Speaker 19: favor Biden or Trump? Forty eight percent of crypto purchasers
Speaker 19: favorite Trump. Only thirty nine percent favored Biden. Even though
Speaker 19: this was a population that voted more for Biden than
Speaker 19: Trump in twenty twenty.
Speaker 9: Well, favoring is one thing, trusting is another. And I
Speaker 9: did notice in your data Republicans and Donald Trump are
Speaker 9: trusted more to promote the kind of growth and regulatory
Speaker 9: nature of the crypto environment moving.
Speaker 19: Forward, exactly right, And that also is a change from March.
Speaker 19: In March it was tied. Twenty five percent said Republicans
Speaker 19: were fate were better, twenty five percent said Democrats. But now,
Speaker 19: in the wake of obviously a lot of statements, Donald
Speaker 19: Trump said he wanted a bitcoin sovereign wealth fund, He's
Speaker 19: doing a DeFi protocol. Thirty percent of voters say they
Speaker 19: trust Republicans more on crypto policy. Only twenty five percent
Speaker 19: trust Democrats more. But this is still a jump ball.
Speaker 19: Independence are much more mixed up, about ten percent trusting
Speaker 19: each side. So there's ways to come back.
Speaker 2: We just heard from Wiley Nicchol who has embraced crypto
Speaker 2: in a way that a lot of lawmakers have not.
Speaker 2: But he has a vision, as he's told us, even
Speaker 2: beyond his tenure in the House of Lawmakers, finding some
Speaker 2: critical mass here, finding common ground, maybe a mainstreaming of
Speaker 2: crypto with so many lawmakers kind of catching.
Speaker 3: Up to the narrative here.
Speaker 2: Do you see that in the next term, regardless of
Speaker 2: who the president is.
Speaker 19: I actually do, because we also asked all voters do
Speaker 19: you consider that crypto will be a major part of
Speaker 19: the economy going forward or a passing fad? And forty
Speaker 19: six percent of all likely voters said they considered a
Speaker 19: major part of the economy, along with forty seven percent
Speaker 19: of independent voters. And remember, only twenty percent of voters
Speaker 19: had bought crypto, so a lot of people who haven't
Speaker 19: even bought into it yet see it as a major
Speaker 19: part of the economy. And obviously, as Congressman Nickel would
Speaker 19: tell you, elected officials and policymakers follow the voters. The
Speaker 19: voters in a democracy are always our north star.
Speaker 9: So no matter who ultimately when it's not the presidency
Speaker 9: but majorities in the House and Senate, do you think
Speaker 9: actual crypto market structure legislation delineating sec CFTC authority will pass.
Speaker 6: In the next next Congress.
Speaker 19: I definitely think it'll be considered. The sixty four thousand
Speaker 19: dollars question in DC, of course, whether it'll pass, it
Speaker 19: should pass. I would think there's a desire for it
Speaker 19: to pass, But it does seem like we finally have
Speaker 19: an appreciation a lot of DC that this is here
Speaker 19: to stay, and this needs to be well regulated and
Speaker 19: ultimately right. That is what both candidates are saying. They
Speaker 19: want America to dominate the blockchain in the words of
Speaker 19: Kamala Harris, to you know, to control bitcoin, of the
Speaker 19: words of Donald Trump. So there is a consensus, I
Speaker 19: think burgeoning that we need to be getting up to
Speaker 19: speed with other countries on crypto.
Speaker 2: So we don't necessarily need a Republican Congress to make
Speaker 2: that happen.
Speaker 19: I don't think we do. It's worth noting right that.
Speaker 19: I think no matter what, it's likely you could see
Speaker 19: gridlock or something you can to it. We have at
Speaker 19: a Republican House, this Congress, of course, and it often
Speaker 19: had issues governing itself. This is a topic to Congress.
Speaker 19: From Nichols points seventy one Democrats voted for FIT twenty one,
Speaker 19: which is a high amount. You could see a bipartisan
Speaker 19: row Garden signing ceremony for crypto legislation, which is not
Speaker 19: something you can say about most topics next.
Speaker 9: Year, well, and it does remind us that legislation is
Speaker 9: what ultimately could change a lot of things for the industry.
Speaker 9: But the way the president could change things, aside from
Speaker 9: expressing openness, is appointing regulators right at the CFTC and
Speaker 9: the SEC. Obviously, we can assume with Donald Trump that's
Speaker 9: going to look a lot different.
Speaker 6: What about with Kamala.
Speaker 8: Harris, It's an open question.
Speaker 19: It's definitely the case that the president has a lot
Speaker 19: of power to move around commissioners at any time. Right,
Speaker 19: a chairman serves the pleasure of the president. She could
Speaker 19: say she wants to name a current acting commissioner of
Speaker 19: the chair. She could nominate someone else's commissioner and name
Speaker 19: that person chair, and that in general, right, I think
Speaker 19: part of how we got here is that Biden admin
Speaker 19: has been shall we say, sclerotic, shambalic in terms of
Speaker 19: it desprot to crypto. There is no one central guiding
Speaker 19: star and I saw that in person in twenty one
Speaker 19: when I was at the SEC. If you have a
Speaker 19: president Harris coming in saying I want to finally have
Speaker 19: the government sing from one songbook, that should unlock a
Speaker 19: lot of potential policy making and hopefully some clarity.
Speaker 2: What will be the residue of this campaign when it
Speaker 2: comes to the influence of crypto, not just on the
Speaker 2: presidential level, but some of the Senate races, like in Ohio,
Speaker 2: like in Massachusetts, where we've seen self funded candidates come
Speaker 2: out of nowhere and actually make a vent.
Speaker 19: I think it definitely shows this issue matters. I think
Speaker 19: that's the number one thing that was surprising to people
Speaker 19: in DC. If you talk to them in early twenty three,
Speaker 19: you said, this is going to be a major issue
Speaker 19: because so many people by crypto.
Speaker 6: They said, what are you talking about?
Speaker 19: Come on, that's not true, and you have to point
Speaker 19: polling to them, and they still don't really get it.
Speaker 19: One thing we've seen in our polling that's very notable
Speaker 19: is that ownership is highest among people who are young,
Speaker 19: people who are male, people who are non white, but
Speaker 19: it's lowest among people who are older, who are white
Speaker 19: and at POSTCRID degrees. So in many ways, ownership is
Speaker 19: disproportionately low among the exact staffing group that exists in Washington,
Speaker 19: d C. And that I think has caused the blind
Speaker 19: spot on this topic that does not exist in New
Speaker 19: York or San Francisco.
Speaker 9: But when Joe's asking about the kind of money that
Speaker 9: has come into some of these races fair Shake, for example,
Speaker 9: there are now Crypto packs with tens of millions of
Speaker 9: dogs that they've put into this race. Do you expect
Speaker 9: that kind of money dispensing will exist from this industry
Speaker 9: and cycles moving forward?
Speaker 19: I think the evidence is that crypto is saying it's
Speaker 19: here to stay and be a player going forward. Obviously
Speaker 19: what that means any given cycles unclear, but it seems
Speaker 19: unlikely to expect that Crypto will simply walk away. That said,
Speaker 19: legislation changes everything you can imagine, you know, things changing
Speaker 19: as part of a market structure bill, and I think
Speaker 19: that is in fact one of the key questions is
Speaker 19: what does this industry look like when it is fully
Speaker 19: part of a well regulated clear system where the regulator
Speaker 19: is working with the industry and on behalf of consumers, investors,
Speaker 19: and not against it.
Speaker 2: We were just talking earlier with the Abigail about what
Speaker 2: the markets might do in some of the uncertainty that
Speaker 2: could follow the election next week. Do you expect a
Speaker 2: wild ride for Bitcoin for other coins starting Wednesday morning?
Speaker 19: That is so far above my pay great? And if
Speaker 19: I knew that, I'd be in a different job. I
Speaker 19: think what I've learned. So I've been following elections professionally
Speaker 19: and as an amateur for basically twenty five years. There's
Speaker 19: never been an election where I'm more un certain of
Speaker 19: the outcome in this about that it's not just close,
Speaker 19: it's that the Arabars are so wide. It's potentially the case.
Speaker 19: There's a lot of hurting going on. Nate Silver was
Speaker 19: talking about that. So for me, I'm just trying to
Speaker 19: gird myself for the unknowable, you know, the known unknowns
Speaker 19: as it were in Rumsfeldian talk.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all got right now.
Speaker 2: That's why we have to ask justin Slaughter Paradigm. Great
Speaker 2: to see you and thank you for bringing the research
Speaker 2: in this important pull a really important conversation, Kaylee, as
Speaker 2: we try to seize on crypto here along with every
Speaker 2: other element that brings something to this campaign, hopefully some
Speaker 2: visibility about where we end up next week.
Speaker 5: Yep.
Speaker 9: And this is your unique lens here at Bloomberg how
Speaker 9: the policies we're hearing about on the trail actually could
Speaker 9: impact markets and regulation.
Speaker 6: Will continue to do that on Bloomberg TV. Entry.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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