1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roun Auto with the 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition. Even though I'm pretty sure 7 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: I said yesterday was Wednesday, that's kind of where we are. 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: It's just a big blur right now. Wednesday edition of 9 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 2: Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and 10 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Business News Live because you'll actually 11 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 2: see Brad Howard with us in studio as we save 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: a seat for you every day here in Washington following 13 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 2: the candidates after quite a night on the trail. How 14 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: outraged are you today, I guess is the question, because 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 2: there seems to be a lot of anger around this morning, 16 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: after this day, after Kamala Harris delivered the big speech 17 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 2: from the ellipse, Joe Biden sitting about a thousand feet 18 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: behind her, saying something that did. 19 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 3: Not go over very well with Republicans. 20 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 2: If you haven't heard about the whole garbage episode yet, 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,320 Speaker 2: let's walk you through it. Here's the president talking last 22 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:15,759 Speaker 2: night and. 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 4: Just the other day, I speaker at his rally called 24 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 4: Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. The only garbage 25 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 4: I see floating down there as his supporters. 26 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 2: Okay, so this becomes a story, apparently of the almighty apostrophe. 27 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,279 Speaker 2: The White House released a transcript showing that mister Biden 28 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 2: was saying his supporter's apostrophe possessive demonization, meaning that this 29 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: comedian who was at Madison Square guard he was talking 30 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 2: about with the Puerto Rico floating island of garbage reference, 31 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 2: was the demonization that he was referring to. 32 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: Trump Camp doesn't buy it. 33 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,919 Speaker 2: This thing is exploded to the point where Joe Biden 34 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 2: had to come out with a clarifying statement. And now 35 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: an interesting moment for Kamala Harris. Everybody woke up this 36 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: morning asking will she separate herself from the president. Here's 37 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 2: reaction from the Vice President on her way out of 38 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 2: town earlier today. 39 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 5: First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me 40 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 5: be claria. I strongly disagree with any coriticism of people. 41 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 6: Based on who they vote for. 42 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 5: Is you've heard in my speech last. 43 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 6: Night, and continuously throughout my career. I believe that the work. 44 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 5: That I do is about representing all the people, whether 45 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 5: they support me or not. And as president of Deniaia says, 46 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,679 Speaker 5: I will be a president for all Americans, whether you 47 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 5: vote from me or not. 48 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 2: So is that that a We're going to spend as 49 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 2: much time talking about this as we did the rhetoric 50 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: at Madison Square Garden? Is there an equivalency hashtag deplorables? 51 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: Brad is with us right now, made his way over 52 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 2: from Corkford Street Group. It's good to see you, sir, 53 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: Thanks for coming back. You remember deplorables? That was a 54 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: moment that Hillary Clinton, I'm sure regrets. But it does 55 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 2: seem that we're speak speak to the outrage. It seems 56 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,239 Speaker 2: that we're in a world where both parties are just 57 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 2: been waiting around all day waiting for something like this 58 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 2: to happen so they can kick out fundraising emails and 59 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 2: start freaking out about the rhetoric here. 60 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 3: Where are you with what Joe Biden's. 61 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 7: So, you're suggesting people feign offense around election to raise 62 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 7: money gave no. I mean, look, there's a lot of 63 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 7: differences here between that and the basket of deplorables. Comment 64 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 7: first being, he is not the candidate. We you know, 65 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 7: we made a change any months ago for that. We 66 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 7: don't know if you heard. So he's not the candidate anymore. 67 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 7: She is, and you know, and I think it gives 68 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 7: her an opportunity to want she's consistently said. If you remember, 69 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 7: there's an interview where Fox News tried to get her 70 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 7: to insult Trump's base and voters, and she said, I'm 71 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 7: not going to do that. Brett was with Brett Bear 72 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 7: and she's, no, I'm not going to call the American 73 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 7: people a name. 74 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 8: And today she said the exact same thing, even after. 75 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 7: Her even after Joe Biden did it our Democratic And 76 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 7: so that right there shows me that she's willing to 77 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 7: stand up for what she believes, and even if it's 78 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 7: against her own party. 79 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 8: That's a pretty powerful piece of character to get to show. 80 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 7: You know, days before an election. 81 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 2: Did she just remove herself from Joe Biden? Is this 82 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: why Joe Biden wasn't invited last night? 83 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 7: Well, I mean I think Joe Biden he was there 84 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 7: last night, but no, obviously not the rally. 85 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 8: But this election is about her and her vision. 86 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 7: I mean in a few days gonna, We're gonna, We're 87 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 7: gonna watch Joe Biden fly off in a helicopter. And 88 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 7: I think he was one of our greatest presidents, particularly 89 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 7: in terms of defending democracy here at home and abroad. 90 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 7: I think he'll go down in the record books for 91 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 7: that work he did. That's so pivotal to protecting our democracy. 92 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 7: But this election is about her, her vision for the 93 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:40,679 Speaker 7: future and what she's gonna do for the American people. 94 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 7: When she talks about a new way forward, it's actually 95 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 7: kind of a genius slogan, I think, because when you 96 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 7: talk about new way versus old way, who's the old way? 97 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 7: Donald Trump, Joe Biden? Where are we're going? Not backward forward? 98 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 7: So a new Way forward separates her from Trump and 99 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 7: Biden interesting and presents a contrast which I think is amazing. 100 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked last evening on the late edition of 101 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 2: Balance of Power about what was said at Madison Square Garden, 102 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 2: the outrage and some of the lasting We really can't 103 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 2: quantify impact that this might have on young Latino voters, 104 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 2: on Puerto Rican voters who both campaigns are struggling to reach. Now, 105 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: is there an equivalency here? 106 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 7: No, not at all because two things. Number one, take 107 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 7: it decide that we just it's not appropriate freebody to 108 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 7: refer to anybody as trash or garbage. Number Two, I 109 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:29,119 Speaker 7: think the what the what President Biden did say about 110 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 7: President Trump's supporters, They are already fired up. They are 111 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 7: not going to get fired up anymore. I don't know 112 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 7: if there's a Trump supporter that isn't going to come 113 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 7: hell or high water and go vote. The Puerto Rican 114 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 7: community is ideologically, you're incohesive like they are. They range 115 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 7: the political spectrum. They probably lean more Democratic once they 116 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 7: come over to the States on the island of Puerto Rico, 117 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 7: which you know, you know, it's an American territories. The 118 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 7: people that were born there are American citizens, but the 119 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,839 Speaker 7: parties are differentiated around the question of statehood. It's not 120 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 7: like the parties are differentiated here. When they come over here, 121 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 7: they lean demmer, but they're still gettable, they're still persuadable, 122 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 7: and in key districts, including in the Pennsylvania, there's a 123 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 7: huge swath of them. So Donald Trump had the Donald 124 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 7: Trump probably hurt himself with a key constituency of swing voters. 125 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 7: I don't know that Joe Biden's comment last night offended, 126 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 7: I mean may have offended, but it's not going to 127 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 7: change any persuadable voters' minds in this up. 128 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,119 Speaker 2: Well, anyone who would associate themselves, I think with Donald 129 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 2: Trump insulted by that remark, would never vote for Joe 130 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 2: Biden anyway. 131 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: Right, So not a needle mover. 132 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 7: And again it wasn't the candidate. I Kamala has said 133 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 7: that one understood, very different conversation understood. 134 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 2: So I like talking with you because you're a practitioner. 135 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 2: There are partisans and there are practitioners, and you make 136 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 2: no qualms about being a Democrat. We know where you're 137 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: coming from. But you've been a chief of staff, You've 138 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 2: helped to run campaigns, and that's why I like to 139 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 2: get in your head a little bit here about this 140 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 2: moment that we're in. Polls are tied, everybody's doing gut 141 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 2: check right now, nobody really knows what they're talking about. 142 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 2: How are you looking at the closing stages of this 143 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 2: with the information that we have. 144 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 7: So the hardest part about running a campaign, and I've 145 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 7: run several, is developing the model. What you're trying to 146 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 7: do every time you do a poll you're running it 147 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 7: through a model. What you're trying to predict with the 148 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 7: model is what is the electric going to look like 149 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 7: on election day? And then you input the results you 150 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 7: got from your polling and spits out a formula, and 151 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 7: that's where we get So the results you see in 152 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 7: polling are calculated through a formula, they're not actually. 153 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 8: The actual big curve on this correct. 154 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 7: The problem is that modeling is based on data, and 155 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 7: we don't have any data to suggest how a lot 156 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 7: of voters in this election are going to vote. For 157 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 7: the first time in history, you're going to see partisan 158 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 7: Republicans vote for a Democrat for president, Liz Cheney, Mett Romney. 159 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 7: You're going to see a bunch of people that have 160 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 7: never voted in their lives come out and vote for 161 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 7: Donald Trump. 162 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 3: You can't measure that. 163 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 7: You can't there's no way. There's no way to measure, 164 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 7: So you're kind of basing it on gut experience a 165 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 7: little bit. I suspect that if you're persuadable right now 166 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 7: nine to ten, you're gonna fall Kamala's way, because if 167 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 7: you don't have an opinion on Donald Trump by now, 168 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 7: you don't like him by now, you're never gonna yeah, 169 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 7: and so, but I do think he's got the big 170 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 7: problem of taking these what we call low propensity voters 171 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 7: who are scattered across America, particularly in rural area, and 172 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 7: you've got to get them to vote for the very 173 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 7: first time. They got to figure out how to register, 174 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 7: where to show up, but ida bring how to do it, Yes, 175 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 7: and when there's no muscle memory, that's a hard task. 176 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 7: So they're both an equally difficult task here. I just 177 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 7: don't know what is going to say. My gut is 178 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 7: she will win because she has invested so much money 179 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 7: in gootv so she not only is going to grow 180 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 7: her reach into persuadables, she's also going to grow her base, 181 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 7: so she can go both directions. He can only grow 182 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 7: his base. 183 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 2: Okay, so that's your gut here to what extent is 184 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 2: early voting factoring in to the way you're looking at this, 185 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: d's versus ours pulling ballots? 186 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 3: Or is that too noisy because there. 187 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 2: Are potentially ours pulling ballots voting for Kamala Harr Right. 188 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 7: So the assumption is that every r goes votes yes 189 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 7: for Donald Trump. We know that's not true the selection, 190 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 7: but you gotta understand the fastest growing party in the 191 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,599 Speaker 7: country is independence or non parties an affiliates depending on 192 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 7: your state. You really have no idea how they're going 193 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 7: to vote. You assume it's probably based on the polling 194 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 7: fifty to fifty, but we don't know. And the other 195 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 7: thing is the more important thing about early voting is 196 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 7: the micro impact. You Most campaigns have a universe of 197 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 7: voters that they need to make sure they go vote 198 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 7: because they know that they are going to vote for 199 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 7: them one hundred percent. And for instance, like the in 200 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 7: the democratic world, like pockets of older black voters, pockets 201 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 7: of older women, or or you know, white college educated 202 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 7: women are going to vote. So in those pockets, we 203 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 7: want to make sure as many people in those areas 204 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 7: turn out as possible. So from micro perspective, you're chasing 205 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 7: each ballot. You're calling that voter, have you voted yet, 206 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 7: every day to get them out to vote. That's really 207 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 7: where it's about. That's how you can drive up your 208 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 7: you're sent you want to bank as many votes as 209 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 7: you can by election day, Yes, because no one knows 210 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 7: what happens on election and you never know, maybe there's 211 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 7: a hurricane or there's a tornado or bad weather or snow, 212 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 7: and that prevents people from voting. But if that happens, 213 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 7: you want to make sure your your site has already 214 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 7: banked their votes. 215 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 3: How likely? 216 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 2: How possible is it that, as we hear Trump supporters 217 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: are undersampled, that there are biases in polling that misrepresent 218 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's base. You could also wake up and say, wow, 219 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 2: this was five points in the other direction. 220 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,439 Speaker 7: So I equate this as you know, like a I 221 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 7: was a former chief staff to a Florida member. Yes, 222 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 7: you know, we got in hurricanes. The models the show 223 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 7: I can get from Miami to DC. That's where we 224 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 7: are right now. We're weak out. We don't know where 225 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 7: the hurricanes hitting. We don't know. 226 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 8: Spaghetti chart, Yes, spaghetti charge. 227 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 7: I've seen models that can go to an overwhelmingly Kamma 228 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 7: of victory because we dramatically undercounted the number of Independents 229 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 7: and Republicans are going to vote for her. And then 230 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 7: in other areas you could possibly see New York be 231 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 7: closer than it has ever had because he's running up 232 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 7: the numbers so high in all of America? 233 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 8: Is that going to make enough difference? 234 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 7: I've seen more models suggest a Comma victory than his, 235 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 7: but doesn't matter. You just need the one model to 236 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 7: do it. This is great happen. 237 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: This is exactly the conversation that's taking place in strategy 238 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 2: meetings in Washington. This one minute left here, Brad. There's 239 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 2: a thought that this will also based on the last election. 240 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,719 Speaker 2: Maybe take till the following Saturday. Where are you on 241 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 2: votes being counted, in races being called? 242 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 8: You know, I suspect that. I suspect that we will 243 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 8: know sooner. 244 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 7: I think more Americans are getting more comfortable and confident 245 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 7: in early in person voting and voting by mail. You've 246 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 7: even seen Republicans come around to it, and that's where 247 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 7: you're really were. A lot of people are trying to 248 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,719 Speaker 7: see the Republican surgeon mail voting as some kind of 249 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 7: sign of Republican strength. I'm like, no, your candidate four 250 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 7: years ago was calling it illegal. So they've come around, 251 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 7: dropped that rhetoric, and they're turning out. And so what 252 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 7: we're looking at is how is that going to play out? 253 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 7: I think what's going to likely to happen. We'll know 254 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 7: the presidency soon. Yeah, maybe the West Coast House races 255 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 7: where we come down to control of the House. We 256 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 7: may not control the House residency like by Thursday. I 257 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 7: predict we may know by Wednesday. 258 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 3: Wow, Brad Howard, this is great. 259 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 2: You know what that would have cost you to go 260 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 2: to Corcoran Street Group to get that seminar. Thank you 261 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 2: for being with us. As always, I'm Joe Matthew. This 262 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 2: is Bloomberg. 263 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can 264 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and 265 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: then Rodoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 266 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 267 00:11:56,080 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 268 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 9: Here in Washington, where we have an eye on the 269 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 9: campaign trail and some news we've gotten from the highest 270 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 9: court in the country that is shaping the way this 271 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 9: is going to go down. Within the last twenty four hours, 272 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 9: they've ruled that Virginia can remove voters from voter rolls 273 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 9: who are found to be non citizens based on DMV data. 274 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 9: Also ruling that RFK Junior, who is no longer in 275 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 9: the presidential race, he is back Donald Trump, will stay 276 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 9: on the ballot in two crucial swing states, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 277 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 9: And I was fascinated Joe by new data we got 278 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 9: from CNN, the poll conducted by SSSRs that finds Michigan 279 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 9: is a lead for Harris forty eight to forty three 280 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 9: compared to Donald Trump and Wisconsin. She's leading fifty one 281 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 9: to forty five. And RFK Junior in those states has 282 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 9: three percent support in Michigan magic one percent support in Wisconsin. 283 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 6: So he could be a factor here. 284 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 3: To think, it's these two states. 285 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 2: Somehow we've left out Pennsylvania here, but these two incredibly 286 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:02,439 Speaker 2: important blue wall states RFK Junior on the ballot, even 287 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 2: a half percentage point could tip the scale here, remembering 288 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 2: it was a three tenths of one percent gap in 289 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 2: our Bloomberg News swing state poll. Fewer as close as Wisconsin. 290 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 2: And the fact of the matter is the same can 291 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 2: be said for the Senate race there too close to 292 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: call within the margin in the most recent data that 293 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 2: I could find. Suffolk University with USA today at two 294 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 2: point race between Senator Tammy Baldwin and her Republican challenger 295 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 2: Eric Hovety, who joined us on the program here two 296 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 2: weeks ago. It's Senator Baldwin's turn. Now the Democrat from Wisconsin, 297 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 2: sat down on her campaign bus earlier today with Bloomberg's 298 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 2: David Goura, who was criss crossing the country forest landing 299 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 2: today in the swing state of Wisconsin, and he joins 300 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 2: us right now from Green Bay. 301 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 3: David, what'd you learn? 302 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 10: We talked a lot about the economists you might expect, 303 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 10: and I think there is a really clear distinction to 304 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 10: be drawn between these two candidates on that issue. You 305 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 10: mentioned the interview that you did a couple of weeks 306 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 10: ago with Eric Hovedy, and he's a fascinating character in 307 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 10: many ways. He is somebody who is a banker with 308 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 10: a lot of money and spends a lot of time 309 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 10: in California, as Tammy Baldwin is very fond of pointing out. 310 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 10: But he asked kind of a nuanced plan for what 311 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:08,719 Speaker 10: he might do with healthcare, and nuance plan for what 312 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 10: he might do with taxes, and so we kind of 313 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 10: grounded some of our conversation this morning with Senator Baldwin 314 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 10: on the issue of taxation. She noted that he is 315 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 10: in favor largely of extending those Trump era tax cuts. 316 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 10: She said that she's in favor of kind of a 317 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 10: more tailored approach, trying to help those working class and 318 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 10: middle class voters who've been her bulwark of support for 319 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 10: many years, both in the House and the Senate. You know, 320 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 10: I've been traveling with her over the course of these 321 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 10: last couple of days. She's taking a bus around this state. 322 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 10: We started out in the southern part of Wisconsin, made 323 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 10: our way to Sheboygan yesterday than Green Bay today. When 324 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 10: we were in Sheboyg and I talked to somebody about 325 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 10: what that city is like historically, what it's like today. 326 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 10: And we've talked an awful lot about manufacturing, and he said, 327 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 10: look around here. There used to be all of these 328 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 10: great companies. Kohler of course, which makes faucets and sinks 329 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 10: and any number of things you might find in your 330 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 10: kitchen or your bathroom, used to have a huge footprint 331 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 10: in that city. It's been greatly reduced. I asked her 332 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 10: what she would say to him about the state of 333 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 10: manufacturing in this state. Take a listen to what she 334 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 10: had to say. 335 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 11: Consider myself one of the buy America champion of the 336 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,119 Speaker 11: United States Senate. So when we're passing big pieces of legislation, 337 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 11: we got to make sure there's buy American rules attached 338 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 11: to this, and I was successful in getting permanent by 339 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 11: America rules attached to the Infrastructure Bill, to the Chips 340 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 11: and Science Act, to the Inflation Reduction Act. That is 341 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 11: bringing jobs back to Wisconsin right now and keeping some 342 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 11: jobs here that might otherwise have left. 343 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 10: So she has a fixed those to a lot of 344 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 10: these spending bills and it has made a difference, she 345 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 10: told me during that interview today. But she has an 346 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 10: opponent who is largely lock and step with former President 347 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 10: Trump on the issue of tariffs and making promises that 348 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 10: we could see a renaissance of manufacturing in the state, 349 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 10: in this country where a lot of these companies would 350 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 10: come back. That's what she's up against. The former president 351 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 10: is going to be here tonight in Green Bay for 352 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 10: a big rally. As you mentioned, Kamala Harris, the Vice 353 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 10: President is going to be in this state as well, 354 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 10: so as you might expect, the economy front and center 355 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 10: for Senator Baldwin for a lot of the folks that 356 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 10: she was talking to as I was on the campaign 357 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 10: trail with her yesterday, guys, well, yeah. 358 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 9: And we know former President Trump when he is in 359 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 9: Wisconsin this evening will be alongside Brett Farv the former 360 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 9: Packers quarterback. So once again we're seeing these campaigns leaning 361 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 9: on the power of celebrity in these final days. David, 362 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 9: give us a sense of also what Wisconsin is like 363 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 9: right now in terms of early voting, how many ballots 364 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 9: have already been cast and therefore how many minds could 365 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 9: be influenced to vote for Baldwin or Huddy or Trump 366 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 9: or Harris for that matter. 367 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 10: Well, Senator Baldin's campaign is really pushing her supporters to 368 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 10: vote early, saying it will lessen the load on poll workers, 369 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 10: you know, find the time to do it, it'll make 370 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 10: things go more smoothly on election day itself. But you 371 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 10: bring up these kind of celebrity studied events that both 372 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 10: of these National Party candidates are holding here, I think 373 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 10: it's a really interesting contrast between that and yes, Senator 374 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 10: Balden will be at the event with Kamala, Harris and 375 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 10: Madison later today with the kind of events that she 376 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 10: was holding yesterday. These were pretty small event with a 377 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 10: few dozen people volunteers who are knocking on doors doing 378 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 10: the hard work of trying to convince largely fellow Democrats 379 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 10: to make sure that they get off the couch leave 380 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 10: their homes, go and vote early or on election day, 381 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 10: and she was really giving them kind of her advice 382 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 10: on how to do that. Come to those doors with 383 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 10: the reason why they're doing it, enumerate what the issues 384 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 10: are that are important to them, and then seal the deal, 385 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 10: as she put it, get them to commit to voting 386 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 10: in this election. You know, you talked at the top 387 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 10: just about how close these polls are, how thin these 388 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 10: margins are. She is very aware of that, talked about 389 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 10: that a lot during the course of the speeches that 390 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 10: I heard yesterday, and really was making the case to 391 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 10: those volunteers that if they can secure really just a 392 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 10: handful of people to go to the polls more, that 393 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 10: could have a fundamental difference at the precinct level across 394 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 10: the state. 395 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 9: Turn Out is everything in Wisconsin and elsewhere. David gera 396 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 9: Bloomberg correspondent live in Wisconsin, Thank you so much. Great 397 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 9: interview with Senator Baldwin. As we consider here what it 398 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 9: is going to take to turn people out who may 399 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 9: still be undecided as to whether. 400 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 6: They want to vote all in this cycle. 401 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:05,119 Speaker 9: Interesting as we away here the closing messages of the 402 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 9: campaigns to try to drive that for Kamala Harris, as 403 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 9: we saw evidence yesterday at the Ellipse here in Washington, 404 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 9: and part this argument is about protecting democracy in a world. 405 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 2: Where turnout matters. I guess you could say crowd size 406 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 2: as an indication. Seventy five thousand people on the Ellipse. 407 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 2: They had to get an additional permit, I guess, to 408 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 2: allow these people, and we saw images of people in 409 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 2: line for half a mile. 410 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 3: To get into this. 411 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 2: The question is who outside of Washington was watching and 412 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 2: listening as Kamala Harris did address the nation from the Ellipse. 413 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 2: And what will be very familiar if you're with us 414 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. Very familiar optics, same staging, 415 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: same podium, flags, same location where Donald Trump spoke in 416 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 2: front of the White House on January sixth. Here's Kamala 417 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: Harris from last night on. 418 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 12: Day one, If elected, Donald Trump would walk into that 419 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 12: office with an enemy's list. When elected, I will walk 420 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 12: in with a to do list full of priorities of 421 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 12: what I will get done for the American people. And 422 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 12: I will work with everyone, Democrats, Republicans and independents. 423 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 9: For more on this, We're joined now here in our 424 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 9: Washington d C Studio by former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy of Florida, 425 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 9: who was a member of the select committee that investigated 426 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 9: the January sixth attack on the Capitol. Congresswoman, welcome back 427 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 9: to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Thank you for being with us. 428 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 9: You obviously have spent countless time pouring through Trump's speech 429 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 9: at the Ellipse that he gave on that day, everything 430 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 9: that happened in the aftermath. To see Kamala Harris yesterday 431 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 9: standing in that same spot with this kind of messaging, 432 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:49,400 Speaker 9: what did it make you think? 433 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 13: It made me think that she's continuing to run a 434 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 13: very disciplined campaign, and that speech was meant to be 435 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 13: both a visual and a verbal contrast to Donald Trump, 436 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 13: you know, and it actually, just as an American, gave 437 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 13: me hope to see a normal, more normal politician using 438 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 13: the backdrop of the White House to deliver messages that 439 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 13: were about unity and also about the substance of what 440 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 13: it is that she's going to do. She did remind 441 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 13: people of what he called for. You know, he asked 442 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 13: people to fight like hell when he last stood on 443 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 13: that stage in front of that White House and to 444 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 13: attack the capital. He was going to go with them, 445 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 13: but then he decided not to, And so I think 446 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 13: in part she was doing a little bit of a 447 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 13: persuadable with a contrast message, But she was also giving 448 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 13: those people who are a little Trump shy because of 449 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 13: how they feel he behaved on January sixth a reminder 450 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 13: of why they shouldn't vote for him and continue to 451 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 13: be a part of this broader coalition that she's trying 452 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 13: to build. 453 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 2: It's getting high remarks on a well written speech, if 454 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 2: not also a well delivered one, But there were questions 455 00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 2: about the very venue that we're describing here. Powerful optics 456 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 2: last night, but in a tied presidential campaign in seven 457 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:08,360 Speaker 2: swing states, a lot of politicos said, why Washington, That's 458 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 2: the last place you'd want to be seen, how about you. 459 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,199 Speaker 13: I think one of the things that she has been 460 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,639 Speaker 13: criticized for people when you talk to focus groups, they 461 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,440 Speaker 13: wonder whether or not she can be presidential. The way 462 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 13: that stage was set up with the flags in the 463 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 13: White House, that was to provide the image of what 464 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 13: it would look like for her to be presidential. And 465 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 13: as you said, people have given really high marks to 466 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 13: the way she delivered that speech and what it was 467 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 13: She said it was her showing the American people that 468 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 13: she is able to be presidential well. 469 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 9: As she was trying to show what she would be 470 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,639 Speaker 9: like as president. The person who is currently president, almost simultaneously, 471 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 9: perhaps caused a bit of an issue for her campaign. 472 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 9: Joe Biden, ad virtual call with Oto Latino, whether he 473 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 9: intended to or not, referred to Trump supporters as garbage. 474 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 9: How much of the progress Harris made on that stage 475 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 9: last night, if any, was undone by that gaff. 476 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 13: I think that gap is the reason why so many 477 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 13: Democrats were relieved when he chose to step aside, because 478 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 13: it's gaffs like that that really create headlines and draw 479 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 13: the attention away from some of the things that the 480 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 13: Trump campaign is doing. I mean, they had a very 481 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 13: insulting comedian come up, and they, unlike Harris, have not 482 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 13: stepped away from their comments. She has said very clearly 483 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,440 Speaker 13: that she does not disparage anybody who has different political 484 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 13: opinions than hers, and that she plans to represent everybody, 485 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,919 Speaker 13: whether they worked with her or elected her or not. 486 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 13: And you haven't seen that kind of distance created between 487 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 13: Trump and what the comedian said about Puerto Ricans and 488 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 13: about other minority groups. 489 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 2: Did you like the way Kamala Harris handled that this morning? 490 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 2: Should she have been more forceful and distancing herself from 491 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 2: Joe Bidener condemning the remark? 492 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 13: I think she was very clear where she was condemning 493 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 13: the remark. I think on a number of issues where 494 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 13: she has been attacked, she has been very clear in 495 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 13: using language that shuts out any doubt of where she stands. 496 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 13: I'll give a good example when she was speaking to 497 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 13: Telemundo in the Latino community, she called herself a pragmatic capitalist, 498 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 13: and the only way to blunt the socialist attacks against 499 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 13: her is that resonate with that community is to call 500 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 13: to identify herself as a pragmatic capitalism. And so I 501 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 13: think taking those messages head on as she has is 502 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 13: the right thing to do well. 503 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 9: And she is six days still to make those messages resonate. 504 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 9: But then election day will be upon us. Obviously, voting 505 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 9: is well underway in a lot of places across the country. 506 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,360 Speaker 9: But what are you hearing, especially with those you worked with, 507 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 9: looking into the events of January sixth and the efforts 508 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 9: to overturn the results of the last election, about what 509 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 9: is taking place even down to the local level, at 510 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 9: polling places, what are you bracing for on election. 511 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 6: Day and in the aftermath. 512 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 13: You know, I think there's a lot of concern, obviously, 513 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 13: because a third of the country still doesn't believe that 514 00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 13: the twenty twenty election was a free and fair outcome, 515 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 13: and so we're up against a lot of headwinds. But 516 00:23:57,880 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 13: I think there's been a lot of progress that has 517 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 13: been made. The Congress passed election reform laws that would 518 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 13: raise the threshold or did raise the threshold on the 519 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 13: number of members that would need to contest and vote 520 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 13: not to certify to twenty percent. So that's a little 521 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 13: bit better than where we were standing in twenty twenty. 522 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 13: And then I think at the local level, people have 523 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,959 Speaker 13: been making efforts to ensure that the process is transparent 524 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,159 Speaker 13: and that they can deliver a free and fair election, 525 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 13: as our democracy deserves. 526 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 2: You made reference, congresswomen to the remarks that we heard 527 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 2: at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, the lack of 528 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: an apology that we've I guess not heard from the 529 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 2: Trump campaign in this case. What does this mean in 530 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 2: terms of an impact on Latino voters who were offended 531 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 2: by this Puerto Rico garbage island line in a state 532 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 2: like yours in Florida. 533 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 13: So in Florida, I'm a little concerned that the margins 534 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 13: might be so significant. From a lot of the other 535 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 13: groups that may not you may not see a difference, 536 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 13: But in Pennsylvania, certainly, with four hundred thousand Puerto Ricans, 537 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 13: you're going to see some difference. I represent in one 538 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 13: of the communities that had the highest number of Puerto 539 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 13: Rican in my district when I was in Congress, and 540 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 13: they're deeply proud, people deeply offended by what was said, 541 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 13: and it reinforces. 542 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 14: The sense that. 543 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 13: The island is an afterthought for the Trump administration, especially 544 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 13: in the way that they handled Maria. 545 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 2: Well, we saw Rick Scott didn't waste any time responding. 546 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 13: So yeah, that's the politician in him, understanding that he 547 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 13: has a statewide reelect and he can't afford to let 548 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 13: any group go. 549 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 9: Some Democrats we've spoken with have suggested that that re 550 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 9: elect he could actually lose. Do you believe that when 551 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 9: you look at some of those same demographics you were 552 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 9: just alluding to in Florida. 553 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 13: Well, I certainly hope that that's the case, But I 554 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,840 Speaker 13: also understand and that elections are more than just about 555 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 13: selling hope. They're about having field operations and a strong 556 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,959 Speaker 13: ground game and infrastructure within the state. And I just 557 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 13: while I hope that happens, I'm concerned a little bit 558 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 13: about the state broadly. 559 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 2: Did you have a word for the Vice President after 560 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 2: that speech last night? 561 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 7: I know she invited you to be there. 562 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 13: No, I didn't speak with her. 563 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 7: What would you have told her when she was done? 564 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 13: Well, that I am looking forward to a new generation 565 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 13: of leadership in this country and that it's time that 566 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,400 Speaker 13: we do move past all of this, and that I 567 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:40,719 Speaker 13: certainly appreciate her drawing contrast between someone who has an 568 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 13: enemy's list, since I think I might be on that one, 569 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 13: and somebody who has a to do list focused on 570 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 13: serving the American people. 571 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 2: It's good to see you back in Washington. Thanks us 572 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 2: always for joining us. Former Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy from 573 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 2: Florida with us at the table here in Washington. I'm 574 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here on the fastest show 575 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 2: in Politics. You're with us here, Kaylie, we'll have to 576 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 2: assemble the panel next. 577 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 9: Yep, Brick and Laura are going to be with us 578 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 9: today as we continue to assess these final six days 579 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 9: of the campaign, as the candidates are criss crossing the 580 00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 9: swing states as we speak. We'll have more ahead on 581 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 9: Bloomberg TV and radio. 582 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 583 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and 584 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,880 Speaker 1: then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 585 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:34,119 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 586 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 9: Missy's Balance of Power Show, in which we've spent the 587 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 9: last several days talking about the aftermath of the Sunday 588 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 9: rally at Madison Square Garden, where Donald Trump and a 589 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 9: number of other speakers were there, and of course many 590 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 9: of their remarks made some noise in political circles and elsewhere, 591 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 9: reverberating well through swing states like Pennsylvania that have high 592 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,959 Speaker 9: Puerto Rican populations, specific to, of course, the joke made 593 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,120 Speaker 9: by comedian Tony Hinchcliff about Puerto Rico being an island 594 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 9: of garbage. But if you thought the garbage references were 595 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 9: going to end there, they did not, because then President 596 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 9: Joe Biden, in a virtual call with Voda Latino last night, 597 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 9: had this to say about his garbage. 598 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 4: And just the other day, I speaker at his rally 599 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 4: called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage, the only 600 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 4: garbage I see floating down there, as his supporters. 601 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 2: Now, the White House has gone out of its way 602 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,439 Speaker 2: to try to clarify Joe Biden's remarks, suggesting that this 603 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 2: is a matter of punctuation, that that was a possessive 604 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 2: it's the powerful apostrophe that we were missing there. Didn't 605 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 2: stop the Trump campaign from raising money on it. An 606 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: email blast went out immediately after, saying you are not garbage. 607 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 3: I love you. 608 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 2: You are the best our nation has to offer. Kamala 609 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 2: Harris was called to respond on her way out of 610 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 2: town this morning, on her way to the Swing States. 611 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 2: Once again, reporters caught up with her on the tarmac. 612 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 3: Here's how she framed it. 613 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 5: First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me 614 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 5: be claire, I soldly disagree with any criticism of people 615 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 5: based on who they vote for. As you've heard in 616 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,959 Speaker 5: my speech last night and continuously throughout my career. 617 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 14: I believe that the work. 618 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 5: That I do is about representing all the people, whether 619 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 5: they support me or not. And as President of the 620 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 5: niaia says I will be a president for all Americans, 621 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 5: whether you vote from. 622 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 3: Me or not. 623 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 2: Does it move the needle in this campaign? We assemble 624 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 2: our political panel to explore that question. Rick Davis is 625 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 2: with US Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics contributor and partner at 626 00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital, joined today by Laura Fink, Rebel Communications 627 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 2: founder and CEO, Democratic strategist. Great to have you both 628 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 2: with us here, Rick, what's your thought on the noise 629 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 2: around this whole controversy to clean up the response? Does 630 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 2: this actually impact a voter who hasn't already made up 631 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 2: their mind? 632 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 15: You know, almost by abstentia, I mean, in other words, 633 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 15: if you're talking about cleaning up you know, your comments, 634 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 15: or trying to do damage control around somebody else's at 635 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 15: your event, you're not actually making the pitch to voters. 636 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 15: This is your last chance to pitch directly to voters. 637 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 15: You want to be talking about things they care about, 638 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 15: not trying to play, you know, clean up with the 639 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,960 Speaker 15: media over some controversy that's self inflicted. And in both 640 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 15: these cases you know they were self inflicted. I would 641 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:37,239 Speaker 15: say advantage Harris only because you know the comments by 642 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 15: the President aren't going to disrupt anybody voting for Harris 643 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 15: because they were about people who've already made a decision 644 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,680 Speaker 15: to vote for Trump. Right, it's kind of self identified. 645 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 15: But the tax on Puerto Ricans at his event in 646 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 15: Madison Square Garden will directly affect how Puerto Rican voters 647 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 15: in places like Pennsylvania, where it just was yesterday, you know, 648 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 15: look at his candidacy and who they're going to vote for. 649 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 15: So it's not a moral equivalent. One has a potential 650 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 15: voter impact and the other probably doesn't. 651 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 9: Well, so when we consider the actual voter the campaign impact, Laura, 652 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 9: we were just speaking with former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy who 653 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 9: said this from Biden last night, Whether intended or not, 654 00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 9: this kind of gaff is why Democrats are glad he 655 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 9: is no longer the candidate. So if that is the 656 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 9: thought here, what role should he be playing on the 657 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 9: next six days of this campaign, the last six days 658 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 9: of this campaign? 659 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 6: If any I think we maybe muted, Laura, there we go. 660 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:49,600 Speaker 16: Oh, I can hear we can hear you now, Okay, 661 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 16: I was just saying that that he can stand down. 662 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 14: That's the role that an incumbent president should play. 663 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 16: And I think in particular because of the gender dynamics, 664 00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 16: because she's running to be the first woman president of 665 00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 16: the United States. She doesn't need the shadow of Joe Biden. 666 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 16: And also he's unpopular, so he knows to stand down. 667 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 16: He has stood down for the last several months, and 668 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 16: he should do the same this kind of gaff I 669 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 16: agree with the congresswoman. This is why the change needed 670 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 16: to happen. This is why you see Kamala Harris with 671 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 16: precision and message discipline as she turned his gaff back 672 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 16: to her consistent themes of unity and a lack of 673 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 16: division and a lack of the ugliness. 674 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 14: So she was able to pivot. But he did. I 675 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 14: agree with Rick. He stole a day. 676 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 16: There's an opportunity cost here for the Harris campaign where 677 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 16: she gave an incredible speech last night to unify the country, 678 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 16: and he's immediately distracting from that. 679 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 14: So it's a bummer. 680 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 16: But these are the things that happened in campaigns, and 681 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 16: you got to keep going. 682 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,400 Speaker 2: It's not like Joe Biden was a major feature on 683 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,000 Speaker 2: the campaign trail for Kamala Harris. 684 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,640 Speaker 3: At this point, Laura, will. 685 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 2: We not see him again on a stage with her 686 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 2: between now and next Tuesday. 687 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 14: I don't think you. I don't think you're going to 688 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 14: see him before election day. 689 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 16: He knows the best thing that he can do is 690 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,440 Speaker 16: to stand aside and in fact, you know, letting people 691 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 16: lead and playing the role that is required and needed 692 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 16: of you is what the entire Democratic surrogate operation has 693 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 16: done quite well. I would say it's a significant advantage 694 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 16: over Trump's, not just in terms of the diversity and 695 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 16: the size of the surrogate base, but also their willingness 696 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 16: to lean in and to go where they are going 697 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 16: to be most effective. We saw it with surrogates like 698 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,520 Speaker 16: Michelle Obama and Barack Obama. We saw it with Republican 699 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 16: Liz Cheney. We are seeing it with the generals that 700 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 16: are coming out in their own way and striking a 701 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 16: contrast between Harris and Trump. So the team is hitting 702 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 16: its marks, and this is just one misstep one day. 703 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 9: Well, So as we consider the words of Joe Biden here, Rick, 704 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 9: I'd like to talk about some of the words Donald 705 00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 9: Trump is using, specifically as it pertains to the vote 706 00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 9: in Pennsylvania. He posted on true Social this morning alleging 707 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 9: that there is quote cheating in Pennsylvania. 708 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 6: Others followed up. 709 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,840 Speaker 9: Marjorie Taylor Green, the congresswoman from Georgia, suggested that the 710 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 9: steal is on in Pennsylvania. Perhaps you're laying the groundwork 711 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 9: to contest the results of that state. But what might 712 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 9: that signal to you, Rick about the internals the Trump 713 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 9: campaign is seeing. If Donald Trump is already saying this 714 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:23,320 Speaker 9: thing was stolen. 715 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:28,359 Speaker 15: Yeah, we actually are seeing a pretty aggressive push in 716 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:32,279 Speaker 15: the color counties around Philadelphia on early vote. Probably not 717 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,359 Speaker 15: great for the Trump campaign. And my guess is as 718 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 15: soon as you started seeing that is when these claims 719 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 15: of theft or irregularities cropped up. When I talk to 720 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 15: people who are involved in election law, you know, they 721 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 15: don't think they've had anything unusual happen in Pennsylvania other 722 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,719 Speaker 15: than the typical election week or you know, election month 723 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 15: activity related to balloting. And so you know, he's working 724 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,319 Speaker 15: the ref he's already laying out the predicate that if 725 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 15: he loses. I don't think there's anybody I know who 726 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 15: would question that, he will call foul. He'll you know, 727 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 15: get his lawyers to issue a bunch of lawsuits against 728 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:14,600 Speaker 15: you know, various jurisdictions, all in targeted states, all untargeted 729 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 15: counties to try and contest the election once again. The 730 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,880 Speaker 15: fact that he's doing it before we've even voted is 731 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 15: actually pretty typically did it in twenty sixteen even when 732 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 15: he won, and obviously he did it very aggressively before 733 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,239 Speaker 15: the vote in twenty twenty. So I think that this 734 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 15: is just another one of these things that is a distraction. 735 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,839 Speaker 15: But it does remind voters that this is the kind 736 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 15: of chaos that they experienced with Trump, you know, when 737 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,240 Speaker 15: he was president ending his term and the whole January 738 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 15: sixth thing kind of comes flooding back, and I'm not 739 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 15: sure that's particularly a good thing for him. 740 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,399 Speaker 2: Two important Supreme Court rulings today, Laura, that I want 741 00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,839 Speaker 2: to ask you about. One of them involves purging voter 742 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,399 Speaker 2: roles in Virginia. The other involves two swing states here 743 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:03,200 Speaker 2: that we've been talking about already this hour, Michigan and Wisconsin. 744 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 2: The Supreme Court says OURFK. Junior will stay on the 745 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:11,319 Speaker 2: ballot in those two states, knowing how close the race is. 746 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 2: Did the Supreme Court just win this for Kamala Harris? 747 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 16: Well, the Supreme Court did what they should do in 748 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:24,240 Speaker 16: that decision, simply because the appeal was made far too late. 749 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,240 Speaker 16: If OURFK Junior did not want his name on the ballot, 750 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 16: then he should have petitioned earlier or he should have 751 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,239 Speaker 16: decided not to run. So this is has been true 752 00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:37,279 Speaker 16: in American politics forever and ever, so this is not new. 753 00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 14: And so the Supreme Court in this. 754 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 16: Instance is reinforcing decades of precedent around election law, and 755 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,400 Speaker 16: that stability is what we need. In terms of the 756 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:51,319 Speaker 16: other case with respect to purging the voter rules, that 757 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 16: is an overturn of precedent and two lower court decisions, 758 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,879 Speaker 16: and the purging of voter rules by Republican governors specific 759 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,840 Speaker 16: is a tactic that is folded into this same story 760 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 16: that Rick was just talking about, where you are essentially 761 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:13,400 Speaker 16: saying there's election fraud particular to illegal immigrants, immigrants who 762 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:17,520 Speaker 16: are not documented in this country. And that's something that 763 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,600 Speaker 16: has been going on for a long time. And Trump 764 00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 16: affiliated groups have been filing lawsuits in swing states for 765 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,839 Speaker 16: the better part of the last six months. So they 766 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 16: will continue to do this, and they have ceded this 767 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 16: idea of voter fraud without evidence, and in contrast and 768 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,879 Speaker 16: contrary to what election officials are saying, all to sort 769 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:43,040 Speaker 16: of lay the groundwork for the claims once again that 770 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,359 Speaker 16: the election is stolen if they don't win. 771 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,440 Speaker 9: Well, Rick, if we consider this Virginia case, what the 772 00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 9: state argued was that their program where they removed these 773 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,960 Speaker 9: voters from the rules was based on information provided to 774 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 9: the DMV where someone had to check a box to 775 00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,600 Speaker 9: indicate they aren't a US citizen. Now, obviously, opponents to 776 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,960 Speaker 9: this have said that does leave room for potential error. 777 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,400 Speaker 9: People who are qualified to vote, maybe became naturalized citizens, 778 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,919 Speaker 9: could be removed when they shouldn't be. Do you see 779 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,080 Speaker 9: actual room for error here? Is this decision justified? 780 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 15: Well, that's the biggest problem is there is always room 781 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:21,200 Speaker 15: for error. Right, anytime you systematically merge a file with 782 00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,759 Speaker 15: another file, whether it's voter rolls and DMV data, you're 783 00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,799 Speaker 15: going to have irregularities. Things aren't going to always fit. 784 00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:30,839 Speaker 15: And that's what happened. From what I can tell in 785 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 15: this case. I don't think anybody was going after an 786 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:38,800 Speaker 15: effort to try and disenfranchise US citizens from their vote. 787 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,160 Speaker 15: But that's why the law says, take you know, don't 788 00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 15: do these kinds of things within ninety days of the election, 789 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 15: because you might have problems. And you know, we keep 790 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,120 Speaker 15: talking about, oh, you know, purging non voters, but like, 791 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,839 Speaker 15: if a voter is purged, you are you are violating 792 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,279 Speaker 15: their civil rights and it is against the constitution that 793 00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 15: allows them to have a vote. And even though Virginia 794 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 15: only had about sixteen voters who were disenfranchised by this purge, 795 00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,480 Speaker 15: who are in the process of being put back on rolls, 796 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:12,080 Speaker 15: this was done in Alabama and they purged three thousand, 797 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,960 Speaker 15: two hundred people, and two thousand of them were US citizens. 798 00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,320 Speaker 15: So you know, it's the kind of thing where nobody's 799 00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,920 Speaker 15: laying blame. It's just what happens when you merge liss 800 00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:23,600 Speaker 15: and you don't want to do it too late in 801 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:24,160 Speaker 15: the process. 802 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,280 Speaker 9: All right, Rick Davis of stone Court Capital and Laura 803 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,600 Speaker 9: Fink of Rebel Communications our political panel today, Thank you 804 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:33,960 Speaker 9: so much for joining us. We have more ahead here 805 00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,160 Speaker 9: on Balance of Power. Up next, we're going to take 806 00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,719 Speaker 9: a look at how markets are viewing this election, specifically 807 00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,200 Speaker 9: through the lens of crypto. That's ahead on Bloomberg TV 808 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,680 Speaker 9: and radio. 809 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,759 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 810 00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,920 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay, and then 811 00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:55,960 Speaker 1: Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 812 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,160 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 813 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,840 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven. 814 00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:06,280 Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us here on the Wednesday 815 00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,480 Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 816 00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,480 Speaker 2: You can find us on YouTube right now as well 817 00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,759 Speaker 2: search Bloomberg Business News Live. We'll save a seat for 818 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,240 Speaker 2: you here in the studio as we consider the impact 819 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,760 Speaker 2: or not the election is having on the markets. Amy 820 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,160 Speaker 2: was just talking about. We've had an ongoing conversation with 821 00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 2: Abigail Doolittle, Bloomberg Markets correspondent, who has been very effective 822 00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:32,560 Speaker 2: at capturing this moment on Wall Street and the intersection 823 00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,520 Speaker 2: of Washington and Wall Street, the Trump trade, the Harris trade, 824 00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,960 Speaker 2: if there is one, and she's with us now six 825 00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,360 Speaker 2: days out, Abigail, it's great to see you. This is 826 00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,840 Speaker 2: a market obsessed with earnings, of course, we've got a 827 00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 2: lot of them today Google, AMD, Lily and so on. 828 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,320 Speaker 2: Is anyone thinking about the election while they're trading earnings? 829 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,240 Speaker 17: That is certainly the main story, Joe, and it's interesting 830 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,400 Speaker 17: volume for the S and P five hundred right now, 831 00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 17: about twenty percent above even twenty five percent above the 832 00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:03,440 Speaker 17: twenty day moving average for the stock volume on that index, 833 00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,720 Speaker 17: so investors very interested. But as Amy was talking about, 834 00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,040 Speaker 17: the S and P five hundred barely moving despite those 835 00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:14,320 Speaker 17: earnings movers beneath the surface alphabet up more than five percent, 836 00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:18,279 Speaker 17: AMD down closer to ten percent that surface flat. I 837 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,839 Speaker 17: would say, in a way that may reflect some of 838 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,800 Speaker 17: the tug of war right before the election, but overall, 839 00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,360 Speaker 17: the markets have been voting on this election for quite 840 00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,200 Speaker 17: some time. Given the fact that the S and P 841 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:33,680 Speaker 17: five hundred year to date up more than twenty percent. Historically, 842 00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:37,360 Speaker 17: as you both know, Joe and Kelly, the S and 843 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,920 Speaker 17: P five hundred stocks tend to do very well in 844 00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:43,160 Speaker 17: presidential election years and this year is no exception. Again 845 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 17: into today that SMP five hundred up a very healthy 846 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:47,320 Speaker 17: twenty percent. 847 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,480 Speaker 9: Well, okay, So if stocks are doing okay, there is 848 00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:54,600 Speaker 9: the question about the bond market as well, which has 849 00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,680 Speaker 9: been whipsided by a multitude of things, including the outlook 850 00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,879 Speaker 9: for monetary policy. But can we say in the bomb 851 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,640 Speaker 9: market now, Abigail, it's more about fiscal policy than monetary 852 00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:04,200 Speaker 9: at this point. 853 00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:05,000 Speaker 14: So that's a. 854 00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:08,280 Speaker 17: Great question, Kelly, because in terms of the stock market. 855 00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:09,759 Speaker 17: If we were to break it down a little bit 856 00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,360 Speaker 17: more in terms of that twenty percent gain, it's certainly 857 00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,600 Speaker 17: leaning toward the former president Donald Trump, with DJT up 858 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,040 Speaker 17: about three hundred percent in recent weeks. We also have 859 00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:23,840 Speaker 17: the Trump predicted higher than the Harris predicted, but relative 860 00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:27,160 Speaker 17: to the bond market because the expectation, and this according 861 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,400 Speaker 17: to Steve soasnik Over an interactive broker, that broker that 862 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,600 Speaker 17: his fiscal policy could be super loose and it could 863 00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,880 Speaker 17: mean problems for the budget. That yields could go higher 864 00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,560 Speaker 17: if that continues. Because when yields go higher, that means 865 00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:43,160 Speaker 17: liquidity is coming out of the system. That could actually 866 00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,520 Speaker 17: in turn pressure stock. So we're keeping a very close 867 00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,959 Speaker 17: eye on the bond market for sure. Those yields backing 868 00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,960 Speaker 17: up in just the last couple of weeks a very 869 00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,759 Speaker 17: big amount, by fifty to sixty basis point, depending on 870 00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,399 Speaker 17: what yield, what bond, what note you're looking at. 871 00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,560 Speaker 2: We see that they sitting at just about a twenty 872 00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:07,000 Speaker 2: europe almost four percent. Kind of interesting to consider the 873 00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,640 Speaker 2: potential for volatility around what happens next week Abigail. And 874 00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,120 Speaker 2: then there's crypto. Wall Street seems to think they have 875 00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,239 Speaker 2: this figured out, don't they. 876 00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,000 Speaker 17: You know, it's interesting, so that VIX has really been 877 00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:18,759 Speaker 17: a great tell that the three of us have been 878 00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,560 Speaker 17: watching since July, the VIX curve months and months ago, 879 00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,880 Speaker 17: around in eighteen, when the VIX itself had been at fifteen. 880 00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:29,279 Speaker 17: So volatility back then at the time very low, but 881 00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,880 Speaker 17: around the election high, and right now it's high. So 882 00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:36,360 Speaker 17: investors a little bit wary in terms of what the 883 00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:40,360 Speaker 17: result could be. Would it be you know, Willoughby, Harris 884 00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,840 Speaker 17: or Trump, And some are saying that if a VP 885 00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,319 Speaker 17: Harris is to win, that could be a near term 886 00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,120 Speaker 17: negative for stocks because she may not be so friendly 887 00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:51,719 Speaker 17: to taxes, especially around capital grains. There could be some 888 00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,080 Speaker 17: profit taking. But to your point on crypto, it's very 889 00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:58,280 Speaker 17: interesting right now bitcoin trading above seventy thousand dollars per bitcoin. 890 00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:03,960 Speaker 17: The possible Trump administration considered to be crypto friendly, So 891 00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,480 Speaker 17: that might be another way of markets weighing in on 892 00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,719 Speaker 17: saying that they are voting for Donald Trump. But of 893 00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,560 Speaker 17: course that is we don't know that that's the case. 894 00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,960 Speaker 17: But markets right now, right across the board, seemed to 895 00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,920 Speaker 17: be leaning a little bit red at least for the 896 00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:19,439 Speaker 17: White House. 897 00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,880 Speaker 9: Yeah, all right, Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail Doolittle, thank you 898 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:25,920 Speaker 9: so much. As Abigail points to what we're seeing in 899 00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,839 Speaker 9: crypto in the notion that Donald Trump would be better 900 00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:32,279 Speaker 9: for bitcoin and other digital assets, at least one person 901 00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,920 Speaker 9: would disagree with that. Democratic Congressman Wiley Nickel of North Carolina, 902 00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,600 Speaker 9: who was a leader of crypto for Harris zoom calls 903 00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:42,360 Speaker 9: early in her candidacy and sits on the Financial Services Committee, 904 00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,880 Speaker 9: had this to say on Bloomberg Crypto yesterday. 905 00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:49,800 Speaker 18: Kamala Harris's position of protecting US consumers keeping digital innovation 906 00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:52,319 Speaker 18: in the US puts you're squarely in line with the 907 00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,640 Speaker 18: seventy one Democrats, including myself who supported FIT twenty one. 908 00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:57,800 Speaker 18: So I think we've got a really good forward looking 909 00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,359 Speaker 18: approach by Vice President Harris. And if I can say 910 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,200 Speaker 18: one thing about our opponent in this race, there's only 911 00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,600 Speaker 18: one candidate running for president who's called crypto a scam, 912 00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,120 Speaker 18: and that's Donald Trump, who did nothing on this issue 913 00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:08,880 Speaker 18: for four years. 914 00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,440 Speaker 9: So we want to dig more into the issue of 915 00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 9: crypto and specifically how it is shaping voter sentiment. With 916 00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,879 Speaker 9: six days to go until election day, and we've got 917 00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,880 Speaker 9: some new data out from Paradigm and their VP of 918 00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:25,400 Speaker 9: Regulatory Affairs, Justin Slaughter is joining us now in our Washington, 919 00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:26,360 Speaker 9: d C studio. 920 00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:27,960 Speaker 6: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 921 00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,719 Speaker 19: Justin good to be back here, Gaily. 922 00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,360 Speaker 9: Thanks for being with us, and thank you for this 923 00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:35,200 Speaker 9: data which is incredibly insightful in terms of what it finds. 924 00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:38,880 Speaker 9: You find five percent of all voters describe themselves as 925 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:43,239 Speaker 9: single issue crypto voters. What does the actual breakdown of 926 00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:44,319 Speaker 9: that five percent look like? 927 00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:44,960 Speaker 8: Great question. 928 00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,120 Speaker 19: So to be clear, there's been a lot of discussion 929 00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,279 Speaker 19: over the last few months about whether or not the 930 00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,560 Speaker 19: significant amount of people who own crypto in American We 931 00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,000 Speaker 19: have it as twenty percent of all registered and likely 932 00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:57,399 Speaker 19: voters have bought crypto along with other polls, and it's 933 00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:59,600 Speaker 19: not clear whether or not they will vote on that 934 00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,399 Speaker 19: disc you know, purchase. So we asked those who bought 935 00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,160 Speaker 19: crypto in the past, do you consider yourself a single 936 00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:08,440 Speaker 19: issue crypto voter? And I'll read the wording exactly as 937 00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:11,640 Speaker 19: it matters for polling. Do you consider yourself a single 938 00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:15,799 Speaker 19: issue crypto voter? And the government policy on crypto is 939 00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,960 Speaker 19: the most important policy you consider when selecting a candidate 940 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,600 Speaker 19: for office, and a quarter of those who bought crypto 941 00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,640 Speaker 19: five percent of all likely voters say yes they are. 942 00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,680 Speaker 19: This was a surprisingly large number in our view, especially 943 00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,160 Speaker 19: given how close this election is. I mean, we're looking 944 00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,040 Speaker 19: at one percent margins in all the key states. 945 00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:35,200 Speaker 2: How about when it comes down to Trump versus Harris. 946 00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:36,120 Speaker 2: Both have tried to. 947 00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:36,640 Speaker 3: Seize on this. 948 00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,680 Speaker 2: We could probably argue Donald Trump a little more aggressively, 949 00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,960 Speaker 2: even getting into the family business to some extent, But 950 00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,560 Speaker 2: Harris has tried to make clear her openness to new 951 00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:52,480 Speaker 2: ideas to enhancing growth in crypto. But the industry seems 952 00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:53,959 Speaker 2: to favor Trump. What did you learn? 953 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:57,200 Speaker 19: It was surprising because we're looking not at the industry 954 00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:01,319 Speaker 19: but voters, and among crypto purchasers it's tied forty seven 955 00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:05,040 Speaker 19: forty seven. This is better for Trump than in the 956 00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:07,040 Speaker 19: overall ballot, which we have as forty eight forty six. 957 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,439 Speaker 19: But Harris has improved dramatically from where Biden was in March. 958 00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,400 Speaker 19: When we asked this question March, asking who do you 959 00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,360 Speaker 19: favor Biden or Trump? Forty eight percent of crypto purchasers 960 00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,600 Speaker 19: favorite Trump. Only thirty nine percent favored Biden. Even though 961 00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,560 Speaker 19: this was a population that voted more for Biden than 962 00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:23,600 Speaker 19: Trump in twenty twenty. 963 00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,640 Speaker 9: Well, favoring is one thing, trusting is another. And I 964 00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:30,560 Speaker 9: did notice in your data Republicans and Donald Trump are 965 00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,879 Speaker 9: trusted more to promote the kind of growth and regulatory 966 00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,120 Speaker 9: nature of the crypto environment moving. 967 00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,319 Speaker 19: Forward, exactly right, And that also is a change from March. 968 00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:41,400 Speaker 19: In March it was tied. Twenty five percent said Republicans 969 00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,560 Speaker 19: were fate were better, twenty five percent said Democrats. But now, 970 00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:47,000 Speaker 19: in the wake of obviously a lot of statements, Donald 971 00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,560 Speaker 19: Trump said he wanted a bitcoin sovereign wealth fund, He's 972 00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,680 Speaker 19: doing a DeFi protocol. Thirty percent of voters say they 973 00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,840 Speaker 19: trust Republicans more on crypto policy. Only twenty five percent 974 00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,319 Speaker 19: trust Democrats more. But this is still a jump ball. 975 00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,160 Speaker 19: Independence are much more mixed up, about ten percent trusting 976 00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,240 Speaker 19: each side. So there's ways to come back. 977 00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,200 Speaker 2: We just heard from Wiley Nicchol who has embraced crypto 978 00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:07,840 Speaker 2: in a way that a lot of lawmakers have not. 979 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,080 Speaker 2: But he has a vision, as he's told us, even 980 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:14,400 Speaker 2: beyond his tenure in the House of Lawmakers, finding some 981 00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:19,840 Speaker 2: critical mass here, finding common ground, maybe a mainstreaming of 982 00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,600 Speaker 2: crypto with so many lawmakers kind of catching. 983 00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,120 Speaker 3: Up to the narrative here. 984 00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,279 Speaker 2: Do you see that in the next term, regardless of 985 00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:28,200 Speaker 2: who the president is. 986 00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:31,080 Speaker 19: I actually do, because we also asked all voters do 987 00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:32,880 Speaker 19: you consider that crypto will be a major part of 988 00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:35,640 Speaker 19: the economy going forward or a passing fad? And forty 989 00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,200 Speaker 19: six percent of all likely voters said they considered a 990 00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,720 Speaker 19: major part of the economy, along with forty seven percent 991 00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:44,040 Speaker 19: of independent voters. And remember, only twenty percent of voters 992 00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:46,040 Speaker 19: had bought crypto, so a lot of people who haven't 993 00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:48,200 Speaker 19: even bought into it yet see it as a major 994 00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,640 Speaker 19: part of the economy. And obviously, as Congressman Nickel would 995 00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:55,480 Speaker 19: tell you, elected officials and policymakers follow the voters. The 996 00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,919 Speaker 19: voters in a democracy are always our north star. 997 00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,360 Speaker 9: So no matter who ultimately when it's not the presidency 998 00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,960 Speaker 9: but majorities in the House and Senate, do you think 999 00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:10,640 Speaker 9: actual crypto market structure legislation delineating sec CFTC authority will pass. 1000 00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:11,560 Speaker 6: In the next next Congress. 1001 00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,680 Speaker 19: I definitely think it'll be considered. The sixty four thousand 1002 00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:15,800 Speaker 19: dollars question in DC, of course, whether it'll pass, it 1003 00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:17,920 Speaker 19: should pass. I would think there's a desire for it 1004 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,839 Speaker 19: to pass, But it does seem like we finally have 1005 00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,960 Speaker 19: an appreciation a lot of DC that this is here 1006 00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,839 Speaker 19: to stay, and this needs to be well regulated and 1007 00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:28,920 Speaker 19: ultimately right. That is what both candidates are saying. They 1008 00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,200 Speaker 19: want America to dominate the blockchain in the words of 1009 00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:34,560 Speaker 19: Kamala Harris, to you know, to control bitcoin, of the 1010 00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,920 Speaker 19: words of Donald Trump. So there is a consensus, I 1011 00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,480 Speaker 19: think burgeoning that we need to be getting up to 1012 00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:40,920 Speaker 19: speed with other countries on crypto. 1013 00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,239 Speaker 2: So we don't necessarily need a Republican Congress to make 1014 00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:43,720 Speaker 2: that happen. 1015 00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:45,759 Speaker 19: I don't think we do. It's worth noting right that. 1016 00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:47,839 Speaker 19: I think no matter what, it's likely you could see 1017 00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:49,440 Speaker 19: gridlock or something you can to it. We have at 1018 00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,680 Speaker 19: a Republican House, this Congress, of course, and it often 1019 00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:54,720 Speaker 19: had issues governing itself. This is a topic to Congress. 1020 00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,279 Speaker 19: From Nichols points seventy one Democrats voted for FIT twenty one, 1021 00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,759 Speaker 19: which is a high amount. You could see a bipartisan 1022 00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:02,920 Speaker 19: row Garden signing ceremony for crypto legislation, which is not 1023 00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,240 Speaker 19: something you can say about most topics next. 1024 00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,000 Speaker 9: Year, well, and it does remind us that legislation is 1025 00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,600 Speaker 9: what ultimately could change a lot of things for the industry. 1026 00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,120 Speaker 9: But the way the president could change things, aside from 1027 00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,160 Speaker 9: expressing openness, is appointing regulators right at the CFTC and 1028 00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,879 Speaker 9: the SEC. Obviously, we can assume with Donald Trump that's 1029 00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:20,320 Speaker 9: going to look a lot different. 1030 00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:21,560 Speaker 6: What about with Kamala. 1031 00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:22,720 Speaker 8: Harris, It's an open question. 1032 00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,040 Speaker 19: It's definitely the case that the president has a lot 1033 00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,879 Speaker 19: of power to move around commissioners at any time. Right, 1034 00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,160 Speaker 19: a chairman serves the pleasure of the president. She could 1035 00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:33,400 Speaker 19: say she wants to name a current acting commissioner of 1036 00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:35,920 Speaker 19: the chair. She could nominate someone else's commissioner and name 1037 00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,759 Speaker 19: that person chair, and that in general, right, I think 1038 00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,320 Speaker 19: part of how we got here is that Biden admin 1039 00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:45,520 Speaker 19: has been shall we say, sclerotic, shambalic in terms of 1040 00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:47,640 Speaker 19: it desprot to crypto. There is no one central guiding 1041 00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:49,759 Speaker 19: star and I saw that in person in twenty one 1042 00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,160 Speaker 19: when I was at the SEC. If you have a 1043 00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,560 Speaker 19: president Harris coming in saying I want to finally have 1044 00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,480 Speaker 19: the government sing from one songbook, that should unlock a 1045 00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,960 Speaker 19: lot of potential policy making and hopefully some clarity. 1046 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:02,520 Speaker 2: What will be the residue of this campaign when it 1047 00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,200 Speaker 2: comes to the influence of crypto, not just on the 1048 00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:08,200 Speaker 2: presidential level, but some of the Senate races, like in Ohio, 1049 00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:12,600 Speaker 2: like in Massachusetts, where we've seen self funded candidates come 1050 00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:14,359 Speaker 2: out of nowhere and actually make a vent. 1051 00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,359 Speaker 19: I think it definitely shows this issue matters. I think 1052 00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,920 Speaker 19: that's the number one thing that was surprising to people 1053 00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,080 Speaker 19: in DC. If you talk to them in early twenty three, 1054 00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:24,000 Speaker 19: you said, this is going to be a major issue 1055 00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:25,240 Speaker 19: because so many people by crypto. 1056 00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:26,319 Speaker 6: They said, what are you talking about? 1057 00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,200 Speaker 19: Come on, that's not true, and you have to point 1058 00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,040 Speaker 19: polling to them, and they still don't really get it. 1059 00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:32,000 Speaker 19: One thing we've seen in our polling that's very notable 1060 00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,479 Speaker 19: is that ownership is highest among people who are young, 1061 00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:38,319 Speaker 19: people who are male, people who are non white, but 1062 00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:40,480 Speaker 19: it's lowest among people who are older, who are white 1063 00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,279 Speaker 19: and at POSTCRID degrees. So in many ways, ownership is 1064 00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:47,120 Speaker 19: disproportionately low among the exact staffing group that exists in Washington, 1065 00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:48,800 Speaker 19: d C. And that I think has caused the blind 1066 00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:51,400 Speaker 19: spot on this topic that does not exist in New 1067 00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:52,440 Speaker 19: York or San Francisco. 1068 00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,160 Speaker 9: But when Joe's asking about the kind of money that 1069 00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:57,800 Speaker 9: has come into some of these races fair Shake, for example, 1070 00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:59,759 Speaker 9: there are now Crypto packs with tens of millions of 1071 00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,960 Speaker 9: dogs that they've put into this race. Do you expect 1072 00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:05,880 Speaker 9: that kind of money dispensing will exist from this industry 1073 00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:06,919 Speaker 9: and cycles moving forward? 1074 00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:08,879 Speaker 19: I think the evidence is that crypto is saying it's 1075 00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,279 Speaker 19: here to stay and be a player going forward. Obviously 1076 00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,280 Speaker 19: what that means any given cycles unclear, but it seems 1077 00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:18,000 Speaker 19: unlikely to expect that Crypto will simply walk away. That said, 1078 00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:21,560 Speaker 19: legislation changes everything you can imagine, you know, things changing 1079 00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:23,680 Speaker 19: as part of a market structure bill, and I think 1080 00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,040 Speaker 19: that is in fact one of the key questions is 1081 00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:28,760 Speaker 19: what does this industry look like when it is fully 1082 00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:32,920 Speaker 19: part of a well regulated clear system where the regulator 1083 00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:35,640 Speaker 19: is working with the industry and on behalf of consumers, investors, 1084 00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:36,359 Speaker 19: and not against it. 1085 00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,200 Speaker 2: We were just talking earlier with the Abigail about what 1086 00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:42,360 Speaker 2: the markets might do in some of the uncertainty that 1087 00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,360 Speaker 2: could follow the election next week. Do you expect a 1088 00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:48,200 Speaker 2: wild ride for Bitcoin for other coins starting Wednesday morning? 1089 00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,160 Speaker 19: That is so far above my pay great? And if 1090 00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:51,799 Speaker 19: I knew that, I'd be in a different job. I 1091 00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,200 Speaker 19: think what I've learned. So I've been following elections professionally 1092 00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,200 Speaker 19: and as an amateur for basically twenty five years. There's 1093 00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:00,480 Speaker 19: never been an election where I'm more un certain of 1094 00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,640 Speaker 19: the outcome in this about that it's not just close, 1095 00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:06,040 Speaker 19: it's that the Arabars are so wide. It's potentially the case. 1096 00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:07,800 Speaker 19: There's a lot of hurting going on. Nate Silver was 1097 00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:10,560 Speaker 19: talking about that. So for me, I'm just trying to 1098 00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,280 Speaker 19: gird myself for the unknowable, you know, the known unknowns 1099 00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:15,640 Speaker 19: as it were in Rumsfeldian talk. 1100 00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:17,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all got right now. 1101 00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:20,439 Speaker 2: That's why we have to ask justin Slaughter Paradigm. Great 1102 00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:22,240 Speaker 2: to see you and thank you for bringing the research 1103 00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,560 Speaker 2: in this important pull a really important conversation, Kaylee, as 1104 00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,160 Speaker 2: we try to seize on crypto here along with every 1105 00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:31,239 Speaker 2: other element that brings something to this campaign, hopefully some 1106 00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:33,120 Speaker 2: visibility about where we end up next week. 1107 00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:33,399 Speaker 5: Yep. 1108 00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,759 Speaker 9: And this is your unique lens here at Bloomberg how 1109 00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,200 Speaker 9: the policies we're hearing about on the trail actually could 1110 00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,120 Speaker 9: impact markets and regulation. 1111 00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:43,200 Speaker 6: Will continue to do that on Bloomberg TV. Entry. 1112 00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:49,920 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 1113 00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:53,040 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or 1114 00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:55,759 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us 1115 00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:59,319 Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at 1116 00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:00,319 Speaker 2: Bloomberg DKA