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Speaker 1: Now. Last week, black Rock became one of the world's

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Speaker 1: biggest infrastructure investors after it also announced an agreement to

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Speaker 1: buy Global Infrastructure Partners for about twelve point five billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: I'm very pleased to be joined by black Rocks vice

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Speaker 1: chair Philip Hildebrand. Philip, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: There's so much going on in the space of central banks.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty incredible actually that the world has been so

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Speaker 1: resilient despite the huge monetary adjustment unwinding fifteen years of

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Speaker 1: monetary loosening. Are you optimistic about twenty twenty four, Well,

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 2: That you're right.

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Speaker 3: The past that's been really the last year has been

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Speaker 3: a story of pandemic savings that have been run down

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Speaker 3: by consumers, so very strong consumption. And then we should

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Speaker 3: not forget government spending has increased dramatically, particularly in the US,

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Speaker 3: and so you've seen these two forces that have kind

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Speaker 3: of been a countervailing force to the contraction that we've

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Speaker 3: seen in capital markets through tighter interest rates. Probably most

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Speaker 3: people have been surprised. The question now is how much

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Speaker 3: longer can this go? How much longer can you have

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Speaker 3: government spend in the way we've seen it how much

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Speaker 3: longer can you run down these pandemic savings? And that's

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Speaker 3: going to be the story I think of this year,

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Speaker 3: And in a sense, it's the final normalization of the

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Speaker 3: post pandemic adjustment.

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Speaker 1: So what does that mean you're watching out for this

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Speaker 1: year again? You know, we started last year thinking that

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Speaker 1: we could see a huge recession in the US. We

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Speaker 1: were worried about corporate default, and we haven't seen any

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Speaker 1: of that.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: I think the story in the next few months is

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Speaker 3: going to be goods inflation is going to continue.

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Speaker 2: To drop quite rapidly.

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Speaker 3: We have no negative numbers, and that you know, basically

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Speaker 3: brings down the overall inflation numbers quite dramatically, and as

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Speaker 3: a result, the markets have now priced in what I

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Speaker 3: think is probably excessive interest straight cuts in the US.

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Speaker 3: But that's going to run out at some point. This

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Speaker 3: is the final leg of the post pandemic adjustment. So

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Speaker 3: by by year end, I would say we're going to

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Speaker 3: be done with that, and then goods inflation is no

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Speaker 3: longer going to drop a service inflation, wage inflation is

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Speaker 3: still very high, and so I think the story is

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Speaker 3: going to be, you know, at some point we're going

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Speaker 3: to realize that it's not that easy to kind of

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Speaker 3: stabilize the two inflation target.

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Speaker 2: That central banks are looking for.

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Speaker 3: And so some of the optimism and rates right now

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Speaker 3: in the US in particular is probably overdone.

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Speaker 1: But so what worst case scenario we don't have as

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Speaker 1: many cuts as are being priced in, and also that

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Speaker 1: would be during a slowing down of the economy, or

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Speaker 1: are you seeing the jobs market to be pretty much resilient.

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Speaker 3: I think the wages services looks resilient at the moment.

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Speaker 3: Goods inflation is going to continue to come down. There

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Speaker 3: is going to be weakness in the economy, there's no

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Speaker 3: question about that. But I think what central banks will find,

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Speaker 3: particularly in the US, that they won't have as much

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Speaker 3: room to cut as is currently priced in.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we're sort of priced.

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Speaker 3: For perfection right now, and you know there's going to

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Speaker 3: be some readjustment to that.

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Speaker 2: Less so in Europe.

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Speaker 3: I think in Europe the story is in a sense

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Speaker 3: clearer than it is in the US for infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: So what's the thinking behind that?

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, look, first of all, I think Larry

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Speaker 3: always hays culture matters most. So this brings together I

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Speaker 3: think two firms, two partners, two leaders that have known

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Speaker 3: each other for four decades. Cultural fit infrastructure, we believe

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Speaker 3: is the big story in private markets in the next

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Speaker 3: ten twenty years. These are long term trends. We know

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Speaker 3: that we need to upgrade infrastructure across the world. It

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Speaker 3: also is a perfect fit. We have very little overlap

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Speaker 3: in our existing infrastructure business and the GOP business. And

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Speaker 3: then finally, I think the transition as one of the

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Speaker 3: infrastructure stories is also an interesting piece here where you know,

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Speaker 3: again there is a lot of synergy between what we

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Speaker 3: have done and what GIP has done in the past,

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Speaker 3: and it brings us to scale at infrastructure. We're now

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Speaker 3: going to be one of the big infrastructure players worldwide.

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Speaker 2: So it's very, very exciting.

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Speaker 1: So where do you see the most opportunities I guess

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Speaker 1: for business or business deals. Is it going to be

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Speaker 1: where there's growth and is that the US market compared

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Speaker 1: for example, to the agent market, or do you also

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Speaker 1: see potential opportunities in Europe.

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Speaker 3: I think the global infrastructure story, and it really is

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Speaker 3: a global story for many reasons. Right, we have outdated

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Speaker 3: infrastructure and think of the UK, think of the US

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Speaker 3: massive need for structure spending. We have the entire transition story,

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Speaker 3: the energy transition story. You'll hear more about that later

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Speaker 3: on today. I'm sure that's going to require trillions of investments,

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Speaker 3: and we have stretched governments. I think this is one

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Speaker 3: of the key stories that also underpins this transaction that

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Speaker 3: Larry and Bio announced last week, that you have very

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Speaker 3: much stretched government. So public private partnerships, particularly in these

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Speaker 3: vast infrastructure projects, are going to be a very big story.

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Speaker 3: And this is something where we want to be part

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Speaker 3: of it, and so I think that's a great opportunity

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Speaker 3: both in Europe and in the US as well as

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Speaker 3: in Asia Francoin.

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Speaker 1: So away from infrastructure, maybe a little bit. Is there

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Speaker 1: something that you worry that's not being priced incorrectly in

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Speaker 1: the markets?

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Speaker 2: Well, at the.

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Speaker 3: Moment, I think, if anything, I'm a little worried that

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Speaker 3: we're sort of priced for near perfection, a sort of

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Speaker 3: almost perfect soft landing where inflation is gone as a problem,

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Speaker 3: where maybe central banks could even cut in the face

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Speaker 3: of any kind of potential weakness. I'm certain that what

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Speaker 3: we're going to find is that inflation has become stickier

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Speaker 3: than we think or than the market things right now

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Speaker 3: for various reasons. We have lower growth, we have very

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Speaker 3: high government spending, we have a fractured, you know, geopolitical system.

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Speaker 2: So all this basically raises cost.

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Speaker 3: And what we're going to find as inflation drops now

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Speaker 3: mostly driven.

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Speaker 2: By goods prices.

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Speaker 3: By the end of the year, we're going to realize

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Speaker 3: that it doesn't settle easily at two percent, let alone,

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Speaker 3: it's something less so that you cut rates.

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Speaker 2: But I think, you know, more likely we're going.

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Speaker 3: To settle probably slightly above two percent, which means central

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Speaker 3: banks are going to have to stay on alert.

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Speaker 1: So do you worry about the cost of money, actually

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Speaker 1: the cost of credits? And this could be because of

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Speaker 1: what we've seen in the last eighteen months, but actually

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Speaker 1: it could be also much more structural reasons.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, I think one of the stories of

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Speaker 3: the last decade really is a lot of investments have

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Speaker 3: been done by way of financial engineering, and in some

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Speaker 3: ways we're going to have to get back. This is

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Speaker 3: another reason why we prefer in structure over private equity.

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Speaker 3: We're going to have to get back to kind of

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Speaker 3: macro long term macro trends and realize that financial engineering

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Speaker 3: when interest rates are higher than they have been for

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Speaker 3: decades when growth is lower, when government spending is going

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Speaker 3: to be constrained, financial engineering driven investments are going to

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Speaker 3: be are going to be much much harder to find,

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Speaker 3: and so I think in some ways it's a healthy

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Speaker 3: correction towards in a sense kind of returning to investing

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Speaker 3: really on fundamentals as opposed to a lot of leverage,

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Speaker 3: debt and financial engineering.

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Speaker 1: When you look at some of the concern across the globe,

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Speaker 1: how difficult actually could it be for Switzerland kind of

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Speaker 1: you know, getting out of all the bank debacle but

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Speaker 1: also attracting global investment.

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Speaker 3: I think we have a current account circle, so there's

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Speaker 3: no there's no issue of capital coming in, you know.

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Speaker 3: In a sense, the banking story is and adjustment. It's

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Speaker 3: a tragedy should have never happened, but it is what

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Speaker 3: it is. And I think the key now the folks

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Speaker 3: in politics will be how do you make sure that

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Speaker 3: you have a bank that is this large relative to

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Speaker 3: the country's economic and financial capability. How do you manage

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Speaker 3: it from a risk management perspective in a sense that

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Speaker 3: you don't ever have to get back to a kind

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Speaker 3: of situation that we had.

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Speaker 2: With credit spee.

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Speaker 3: So that will be the focal point I think of

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Speaker 3: any regulatory reform.

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Speaker 1: When you talk about risks. I mean, it's pretty incredible

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Speaker 1: to think, you know, of what's happening in the Middle

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Speaker 1: East and the fact that the market has barely taken notice.

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Speaker 1: Maybe there's a bit of move on the old price,

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Speaker 1: but there's a tax. There are drones, there's who these

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Speaker 1: there's Yemen, there's Ukraine. We also don't know who becomes

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Speaker 1: the next president of the United States. Like, how do

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Speaker 1: you deal with all of these unknowns?

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Speaker 2: It's hard.

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Speaker 3: I think that the overall stories that we've moved towards

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Speaker 3: a much more fragmented a geopolitical system. Therefore a much

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Speaker 3: more fragmented global economy that is organized in the sense

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Speaker 3: in blocks. You know, that means a loss of efficiency,

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Speaker 3: that means higher cost and probably means unbalanced a lower

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Speaker 3: potential growth rate for the global economy. Now, you know,

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Speaker 3: the focus has to be on maintaining the conflicts and

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Speaker 3: were possible to try to solve them or stabilize them

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Speaker 3: in a sense. The good news is that a lot

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Speaker 3: of these things are man made, you know, demographics. There's

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Speaker 3: not much we can do about it that lowers potential

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Speaker 3: growth fragmentation in a sense we can address. We could

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Speaker 3: find a way to stabilize the situation in the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: We could find a way to ultimately move towards some

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Speaker 3: sort of ceasefire discussion in Ukraine, and we can you know,

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Speaker 3: we could stabilize relations between the US and China. So

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Speaker 3: a lot of this in a sense, has been man

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Speaker 3: made in recent years.

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Speaker 2: It's a problem. It weighs on markets, it weighs on the.

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Speaker 3: Global economy, and hopefully discussions like this can be a

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Speaker 3: contribution towards lessening these tensions and moving back towards something

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Speaker 3: that is a little less fragmented than what we currently have.

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Speaker 3: Is that likely, Well, it's you know, that's I suppose

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Speaker 3: at some level. The simple answer would be not really

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Speaker 3: when you look at the current state of play. On

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Speaker 3: the other hand, the cost of this fragmented system over time,

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to drive political leaders and political

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Speaker 3: system towards trying to address those things that we can address.

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Speaker 3: Some things we can't. Demographics, there's not much we can

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Speaker 3: do about it. We can hope that perhaps productivity can

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Speaker 3: be boosted, whether it's through AI or other means, to

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Speaker 3: make up for some of it. But there's not much

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Speaker 3: we can do about it on the fragmented state of

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Speaker 3: the global economy. In principle, these are things that can

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Speaker 3: be addressed through good policy making.

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Speaker 1: What does a second term President Trump mean for the

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Speaker 1: world economy?

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Speaker 3: Well, this is a you know, Christine Legar talked about

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Speaker 3: it the other day. I think you're going to see

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Speaker 3: her later on today. Certainly from a European perspective, from

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Speaker 3: a kind of globalist Atlantis's perspective, it's of course a

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Speaker 3: great concern. You know, we've been there before, We've survived it,

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Speaker 3: so we'll see what it means. I think the question

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Speaker 3: overall will be does it lead to even more fragmentation.

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Speaker 2: In the global economy?

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Speaker 3: And you know, if that's the case, the cost of

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Speaker 3: that will become quite apparent.

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Speaker 1: Who are you most worried about? I mean, is it

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Speaker 1: the US economy because of a division? Or is it

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Speaker 1: how Europe would deal with the President Trump?

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Speaker 3: I think that the overall European The big story in

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Speaker 3: Europe is how does Europe find as sort of a

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Speaker 3: you know, President of macrom has referred to this as

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Speaker 3: European sovereignty. How do we find our own place in

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Speaker 3: this system with less dependency on the US, less dependency

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Speaker 3: on China, in the space of digitalization, in the space

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Speaker 3: of finance, frankly, and in the.

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Speaker 2: Space of security.

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Speaker 3: And security of course is the one place where the

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Speaker 3: dependency in a sense is most pronounced. So I think

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Speaker 3: Europe has a if it wants to be an independent

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Speaker 3: power in a sense, it has decades of very hard

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Speaker 3: work ahead of itself to find this, this sovereign space

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Speaker 3: in a sense, this in this fragmented world.

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Speaker 1: Philip, thank you so much for joining us today. Philip Hildebrand,

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Speaker 1: the vice chair at Blackbrook