WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 17th, 2025

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordernt. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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<v Speaker 2>from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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<v Speaker 2>anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. I'm very pleased to

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<v Speaker 2>say that joining us now is the Bank for America

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<v Speaker 2>Chare CEO, Brian moynihan. Brian, of course in London, we're

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<v Speaker 2>here in New York. You're actually in our home and

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<v Speaker 2>we're in yours. So thank you, sir for making that happen. Brian,

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get to this leadership shake up because we've got

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<v Speaker 2>a lot to talk about. Eight lines of business, two

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<v Speaker 2>very prominent individuals in this bank, at this institution. How

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<v Speaker 2>do you and the team plan to split up responsibilities.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's good to talk to you both, and thank

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<v Speaker 3>you for coming.

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<v Speaker 4>To our great corporate headquarters.

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<v Speaker 3>Hope that they're treating you nicely out there. Look, this

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<v Speaker 3>is a recognition of three teammates, said Dean and Jim

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<v Speaker 3>and Alistair, and they contributed to they made to our

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<v Speaker 3>company and helping bringing Jim and Dean to help me

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<v Speaker 3>leverage across the businesses.

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<v Speaker 4>And there's a lot of initiatives we.

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<v Speaker 3>Conduct across the company, our growth work streams, our operational.

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<v Speaker 4>Excellence, our.

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<v Speaker 3>AI initiatives and things, and I've asked them to come

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<v Speaker 3>help me. Meanwhile, it also frees up space for that

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<v Speaker 3>talent group. And you're talking to a lot of today

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<v Speaker 3>what's Lindsay or Eric or Wendy and others that continue

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<v Speaker 3>to drive those eight businesses for us and own the

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<v Speaker 3>business and own the responsibility for P and L.

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<v Speaker 4>And there's a lot of talent that levels.

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<v Speaker 3>So the idea is to bring them to help leverage

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<v Speaker 3>my time, leverage a company's time, leverage a company wide initiatives,

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<v Speaker 3>and then let that talent that drives those businesses keep

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<v Speaker 3>making great progress.

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<v Speaker 2>Brian, there is an obvious I have some comfortable questions.

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<v Speaker 2>Some people might have responded to this and just thought,

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<v Speaker 2>is Brian's setting up for six session or is this

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<v Speaker 2>just about change and how the companies.

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<v Speaker 4>Run well long term.

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<v Speaker 3>We have one of the duties that I and the

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<v Speaker 3>whole management team owes the board of directors as a

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<v Speaker 3>series of candidates that have the experience to run this

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<v Speaker 3>company over time. I'm not going anywhere in the short term,

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<v Speaker 3>but in the medium term. But it takes a while

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<v Speaker 3>to set that up and get people used to the

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<v Speaker 3>size and scale this company. So you all report all

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<v Speaker 3>those ins and outs of succession, but the reality.

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<v Speaker 4>Is we're a team and we're driving forward.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of talent teammates and the board will

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<v Speaker 3>have to make a decision someday based on the facts

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<v Speaker 3>and circumstances at the time.

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<v Speaker 5>Brian, you talk about some of the new initiatives and

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<v Speaker 5>looking forward to the bank, the Dean and the gym

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<v Speaker 5>that will be of the future partnering together. I'm wondering

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<v Speaker 5>what you're hoping they can accomplish, whether it's the AI

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<v Speaker 5>initiatives or beyond, what kind of projects you're hoping that

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<v Speaker 5>they will spearhead.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we have a lot of things going For the

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<v Speaker 3>last six last year, we've been working on some work

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<v Speaker 3>streams to help drive expense sufficiency and implementation new technologies

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<v Speaker 3>and at the same time drive growth. How we take

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<v Speaker 3>risk and continue to look at our risk parameters and

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<v Speaker 3>so what I'm asking them is to and they've helped

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<v Speaker 3>drive those well, they've been doing our old jobs and

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<v Speaker 3>I've said, come do this full time and that'll give

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<v Speaker 3>us more leverage across the platform. Our company has a

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<v Speaker 3>great reach we have, you know, we're all over the

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<v Speaker 3>globe and Bernie Men's and the team here and out

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<v Speaker 3>of London run all the.

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<v Speaker 4>International businesses for us.

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<v Speaker 3>We're in a lot of countries, a lot of teammates

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<v Speaker 3>around the world. We just announced a thousand more teammates

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<v Speaker 3>that we're building out here in UK and they can

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<v Speaker 3>help the company drive that and put the key to

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<v Speaker 3>the top of big company of guards is to work

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<v Speaker 3>the seams, work the business connections. And so Jimmy this

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<v Speaker 3>capabilities as he works for the Wealth Management Group and

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<v Speaker 3>Lindsay and Eric on the clients that we have, especially

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<v Speaker 3>in the high you know, the hirer end clients that

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<v Speaker 3>he has relationships with who are hedge fund operators and

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<v Speaker 3>things like that. So there's a lot of inities, but

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<v Speaker 3>it's it's really about revenue growth, organic revenue growth and

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<v Speaker 3>expense efficiency and also thinking through how technology applies. It

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<v Speaker 3>just gives me more power at the top of the

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<v Speaker 3>house to join us. And these teammates have done a

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<v Speaker 3>great job.

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<v Speaker 2>I imagine it's going to be united. From the investor

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<v Speaker 2>day in November, the first one in some fifteen years,

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<v Speaker 2>you mentioned the CFO now Executive vice president Alistair Borthwick

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<v Speaker 2>said this, the most important thing from our perspective is

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<v Speaker 2>we feel like we've got an opportunity to close a

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<v Speaker 2>relative value gap. Brian, can we talk about that relative

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<v Speaker 2>value gap? Where do you think that comes from? What

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<v Speaker 2>is it that you think perhaps investors don't fully understand.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, as you look at the company, you have a

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<v Speaker 3>greater granted growth engine. So we'll do a million new

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<v Speaker 3>checking households, and our average checking.

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<v Speaker 4>Balances are three times four times industry norm and we're

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<v Speaker 4>building that up.

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<v Speaker 3>What we're trying to showcase is what Bank of America

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<v Speaker 3>is is an organic growth machine on a very steady

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<v Speaker 3>compounding basis. So if you look at the projection for

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<v Speaker 3>our earnings growth rates by the street, they're faster than

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<v Speaker 3>the average company as the balance reprices and things go on.

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<v Speaker 3>But trying to showcase is to put on the table

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<v Speaker 3>basically the metrics that we run this company by across

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<v Speaker 3>the eight lines of business and how they work together,

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<v Speaker 3>and then the international piece, and then AI and some

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<v Speaker 3>of the other things we work on the payments business,

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<v Speaker 3>which is embedded in the lines of business but is

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<v Speaker 3>a separate business.

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<v Speaker 4>It really showed three things.

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<v Speaker 3>We have a competitive position that no one else has

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<v Speaker 3>where you know, we just announced yesterday with the largest

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<v Speaker 3>small business Lenner. We have a competitive growth rate in

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<v Speaker 3>the organic growth that's there.

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<v Speaker 4>And then because of.

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<v Speaker 3>Our the dynamics are a NII lift which it will

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<v Speaker 3>be growing as we've told people six to seven percent

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<v Speaker 3>this year. You're going to see the EPs KEYP kicking

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<v Speaker 3>in and the operating leverage come into the business and

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<v Speaker 3>the return on tandem common equity keeps moving up.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's that's when we lay up.

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<v Speaker 3>But gears off that good core or granted growth with

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<v Speaker 3>the right risk that we drive.

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<v Speaker 4>This company by.

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<v Speaker 5>Brian as John is just mentioning this is the first

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<v Speaker 5>and fifteen years, why now what changed for you? And

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<v Speaker 5>is this going to be a new annual thing?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I think we have thirty five Analystic covers.

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<v Speaker 3>We spend time at all the conferences we spend time individually,

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<v Speaker 3>but think about putting on a table to know where

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<v Speaker 3>the company stands right now. As we see after the

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<v Speaker 3>pandemic and after the interest rate changes and after inflation

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<v Speaker 3>fights and all that stuff, we see that people putting

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<v Speaker 3>on a table where we are in organic growth and

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<v Speaker 3>how it works together is critical, and I think, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>you should expect us to do it more often.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we have a lot of connectivity to the people.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually own our stock and talk to them all the time,

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<v Speaker 3>but this is a chance to sort of lay it

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<v Speaker 3>all out so they can see it together and to

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<v Speaker 3>look at some of these initiatis are unique, like our

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<v Speaker 3>employee Banking Investment Initiative, our continuum, our Marril Edge through

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<v Speaker 3>Merrill Lynch and a private bank, and the ability for

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<v Speaker 3>us to take a customer literally from the first bank

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<v Speaker 3>account their entire life, no matter what happens to them.

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<v Speaker 3>On an individual side, or a small business for me

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<v Speaker 3>today that becomes the largest company world, or an individual

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<v Speaker 3>trader that builds up that capability and becomes a hedge

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<v Speaker 3>fund manager. The idea of these continuums and things like

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<v Speaker 3>that are really important, and so we hope to put

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<v Speaker 3>that on a table and make sure people see it,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we'd annually update it, but sort of put

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<v Speaker 3>a baseline on the table.

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<v Speaker 5>So, Brian, it seems like you're moving toward a greater

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<v Speaker 5>degree of transparency or at least availability at a time

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<v Speaker 5>where the President is talking about potentially moving from a

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<v Speaker 5>quarterly reporting system from public companies to a six month

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<v Speaker 5>reporting season, do you think that that would be helpful

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<v Speaker 5>for you as a business manager if you had to

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<v Speaker 5>report less frequently in terms of filing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, At the end of the day, we run the

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<v Speaker 3>company along the principal's responsible growth and how we run it,

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<v Speaker 3>so it won't change how we run the company, may

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<v Speaker 3>change how often we have to talk about it, and inherently,

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<v Speaker 3>if you do two times a year versus four times

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<v Speaker 3>a year, you'd save some money and some effort. But

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<v Speaker 3>my guess is our investors are going to demand from

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<v Speaker 3>us more constant reporting. So we'll see it all play out.

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<v Speaker 3>It's an issue that was talked about over the last

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<v Speaker 3>several years. If it's going to get done, it has

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<v Speaker 3>to be done the right way. So it remains in

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<v Speaker 3>place and we look forward to what comes out of

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<v Speaker 3>the SEC and the process. But on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 3>we are very transparent what we do. We put a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of information out there, things like our digital capabilities

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<v Speaker 3>that no one else reports on quite frankly, and again

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<v Speaker 3>with the investor Day, we'll be able to show that

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<v Speaker 3>and really challenge people say, look, if this is what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on. If you've taken a company at three hundred

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<v Speaker 3>thousand people fifteen years ago that has two hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>twelve thousand people today and applied that technology, you just

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<v Speaker 3>think as we start to apply AI more fully, we

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<v Speaker 3>already have Erica three billion customer interactions, but as that

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<v Speaker 3>applies more fully, you'll see the ability for us to

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<v Speaker 3>continue to manage the headcount and the company well while

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<v Speaker 3>the revenue keeps growing. And so I think we'll report

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<v Speaker 3>on that more often than every six months, is my guests.

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<v Speaker 3>Based on the demand of our investors.

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<v Speaker 2>Lisa, I imagined some CEOs might welcome this. Yes, even

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<v Speaker 2>if some investors done, they.

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<v Speaker 5>Might welcome this, but will they be allowed to actually

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<v Speaker 5>follow it by their investors?

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<v Speaker 6>And that I think is what Brian is alluding to.

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<v Speaker 2>I think investors will demand much more transparency. Brian, I

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<v Speaker 2>want to talk about an initiative close to your heart.

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<v Speaker 2>The news that we got about fifteen twenty five minutes

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<v Speaker 2>ago that you're increasing the minimum wage to twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>dollars per hour. I remember a very early conversation with you,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is something you're very proud of. This has

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<v Speaker 2>gone up from say fifteen several years ago. Can you

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<v Speaker 2>talk to us about why you've maintained this commitment to

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<v Speaker 2>drive in the minimum wage higher at Banks for America.

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<v Speaker 4>Sure, so, let me set two things up.

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<v Speaker 3>One over the course of today and tomorrow and yesterday,

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<v Speaker 3>we've announced a series of insues.

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<v Speaker 4>One is to locate one thousand.

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<v Speaker 3>New teammates in the UK that will work in our

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<v Speaker 3>operations group, and that was announced by Bernie and Tom Scrivener.

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<v Speaker 3>The second one is torease to commit to our military

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<v Speaker 3>hiring at Bank of America ten thousand military veterans over

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<v Speaker 3>the next five years.

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<v Speaker 4>We've done this from time.

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<v Speaker 3>We have about twenty thousand working to increase that. Another

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<v Speaker 3>is to increase eight thousand people from community colleges to

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<v Speaker 3>print an opportunity at Bank of America to further the

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<v Speaker 3>career and get into skills based training. That's a doubling

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<v Speaker 3>or tripling of what we do today. And then we're

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<v Speaker 3>the seventy five branches that we're deploying and the teammates there.

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<v Speaker 4>And the third piece is the minimum wage.

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<v Speaker 3>And so we started on a travel a number of

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<v Speaker 3>years ago with a view that to be we want

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<v Speaker 3>teammates to come to Bank America with a career mindset,

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<v Speaker 3>so join us. So today we're announcing twenty five dollars

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<v Speaker 3>an hour, which is fifty thousand dollars for a starting

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<v Speaker 3>salary across the country and hire in some places where

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<v Speaker 3>the prevailing wages are higher. Obviously, but what that gives

0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:28.640
<v Speaker 3>a teammate a chance to join our company, spend their

0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:31.120
<v Speaker 3>whole career here, and support their families. So not only

0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:34.120
<v Speaker 3>is it the twenty five dollars an hour minimum starting wage,

0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:37.000
<v Speaker 3>it's the benefit structure, which is a full four and

0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:40.040
<v Speaker 3>K match, a full benefit costs that we for the

0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:42.560
<v Speaker 3>teammates in the brackets of twenty five dollars an hour.

0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:45.960
<v Speaker 3>We basically dropped their premium coverage and healthcare in twenty

0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.760
<v Speaker 3>twelve from five hundred dollars a month to two hundred

0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:49.640
<v Speaker 3>and fifty dollars a months.

0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:50.240
<v Speaker 4>Our family have.

0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.640
<v Speaker 3>Never raised it to provide great health care forum and

0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:55.680
<v Speaker 3>then our childcare benefits, so it's a package. So where's

0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:57.679
<v Speaker 3>that payback for the investor. Where that pays back to

0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:01.040
<v Speaker 3>the investor is the turnover rate. And when we started

0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:04.440
<v Speaker 3>this program in the high volume operations groups and the

0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:08.840
<v Speaker 3>branches was twenty percent. It's now down to basically tennis percenter.

0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:10.440
<v Speaker 4>So even below that.

0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.679
<v Speaker 3>That stability in that career mindset allows us to do a

0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:14.760
<v Speaker 3>much better job for our clients. And what you've seen

0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.360
<v Speaker 3>is the attrition in the term teammates has gone down.

0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:19.520
<v Speaker 3>You've seen the attrition the customer's gone down, and you've

0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:23.720
<v Speaker 3>seen our customer scores dramatically improve over the last fifteen

0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.560
<v Speaker 3>years due to this relentless pursuit to be a career employer.

0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.880
<v Speaker 3>So yes, we're very proud of twenty five dollars an hour,

0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:32.600
<v Speaker 3>but there's an economic benefit for the shareholder and there's

0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:35.439
<v Speaker 3>a great position for the teammate at the same time.

0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:38.840
<v Speaker 2>Brian, I wonder also what it says about the situation

0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:42.520
<v Speaker 2>the current environment. It's very strange that we're going into

0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.000
<v Speaker 2>this decision with the Federal Reserve talking about twenty five

0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.920
<v Speaker 2>fifty basis points of rate cuts and maybe more. Your

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:51.160
<v Speaker 2>team has talked consistently throughout this morning about the amount

0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:54.520
<v Speaker 2>of resilience they see in the US economy. Payhikes like

0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:56.760
<v Speaker 2>this aren't the kind of things you would typically see

0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:59.760
<v Speaker 2>in a recession. What's your sense of just how tight

0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.040
<v Speaker 2>a week loose this labor market actually is right now?

0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:08.760
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think if you think of twenty three summer,

0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:11.480
<v Speaker 3>you know, the great resignation, it was very tight, then

0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:14.439
<v Speaker 3>it loosened up, and it's more imbalanced now. So our

0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.360
<v Speaker 3>turn of rate in our company is running about eight percent.

0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 3>It even in places like tech programmers, of which we

0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:24.720
<v Speaker 3>have thirty forty thousand of them, we're running in double

0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.200
<v Speaker 3>digits is now and three four percent. And what that

0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.079
<v Speaker 3>shows you the bin in the markets different, which then

0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.120
<v Speaker 3>shows you people being more careful at headcount. And you

0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:32.720
<v Speaker 3>heard some of my colleagues talk to you about that.

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:33.480
<v Speaker 4>So I think the.

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.520
<v Speaker 3>Unemployment rate is still low, but I think businesses are

0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:38.480
<v Speaker 3>being much more careful in management a headcount for.

0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:39.320
<v Speaker 4>A number of reasons.

0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 3>One is to get by understanding how all the policies

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.440
<v Speaker 3>are coming at and fit together. I'm talking about US

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:48.320
<v Speaker 3>businesses mainly, and then secondly, they're also making sure that

0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.160
<v Speaker 3>they're careful. And I heard some of my colleagues talk

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.120
<v Speaker 3>to you about this earlier. As you think about this

0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:55.080
<v Speaker 3>application of technology, we know what this does. We have

0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.160
<v Speaker 3>half as many people work in the consumer business, and

0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.440
<v Speaker 3>did we did a decade decade plus ago. We have

0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 3>half as many people working operations. We know that as

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.920
<v Speaker 3>these technologies could apply to our legal department, our account

0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:11.240
<v Speaker 3>our finance department under alistair, our risk department, teammates. We

0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 3>know that if we manage the headcount carefully, we will

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 3>do it. So we look at headcount very carefully and say,

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 3>don't hire people unless you really need them, not because

0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:21.319
<v Speaker 3>we're trying to save money, because frankly, from a human

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 3>management capabilities, we don't want to have people who won't.

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:25.640
<v Speaker 4>Be able to have a career here.

0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.120
<v Speaker 3>So we just hired two thousand plus kids from school,

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 3>so we brought in all those new talent. We'll hire

0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 3>these ten thousand veterans, we'll hire these eight thousand people

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.800
<v Speaker 3>from community college. But each month we get the right

0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:37.600
<v Speaker 3>to make a decision on whether we're going to hire

0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.120
<v Speaker 3>about thirteen to fifteen hundred people.

0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 4>And we're just managing that very carefully.

0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.240
<v Speaker 3>So I think we're an example of what's going on

0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:44.319
<v Speaker 3>to broad a labor market.

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 4>You heard Wendy and.

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:47.559
<v Speaker 3>My colleagues talk about it. All the companies are trying

0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:50.200
<v Speaker 3>to manage us and make sure they get the headcount

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:52.559
<v Speaker 3>right because that is a major expense for a lot

0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:53.000
<v Speaker 3>of firms.

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.600
<v Speaker 5>Brian, about a year ago you were talking to us

0:13:56.640 --> 0:14:00.679
<v Speaker 5>about the ramifications of AI and the explosion of efficiency,

0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 5>and you said that you think that headcount could remain

0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.319
<v Speaker 5>about the same at the bank even as the business

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:10.559
<v Speaker 5>continue to expand, just in total size. I'm wondering if

0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.320
<v Speaker 5>that's shifted, if you still see that as the natural

0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 5>progression of the relationship between the adoption of machine based

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 5>learning and the relationship to your headcount.

0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 3>So there are two things that one, I think the

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.120
<v Speaker 3>time we were talking, we are probably closer two hundred

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.800
<v Speaker 3>and sixteen seventeen thousand people or two hundred thirteen thousand,

0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 3>So I think we'll be managing this down.

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 4>But remember, at the same.

0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 3>Time we're managing out through operational excellence and efficiencies of

0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 3>applied technology. We are now we are deploying, so we're

0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 3>adding when he's added commercial bankers and all the markets

0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:45.480
<v Speaker 3>and sharing a team added business bankers and all the markets,

0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 3>and Katie and Lindsay and Eric adding financial advisors and

0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.560
<v Speaker 3>private bankers. So we're adding front end people, sales traders,

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 3>et cetera. To keep building out our capabilities, and so

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.320
<v Speaker 3>there's a reinvestment going on. The key to that is

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 3>really to read a eploying people and reskilling them. So

0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 3>when we bring these two thousand plus teammates and who

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.160
<v Speaker 3>just joined us in the last month and a half,

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 3>we have to be more mindful about training them along

0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:12.320
<v Speaker 3>multiple dimensions than we might have been two or three

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:14.800
<v Speaker 3>years ago. So I think, yes, I think ultimately the

0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:19.000
<v Speaker 3>human being content of our work product would probably come down,

0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:21.840
<v Speaker 3>but if we manage it right, it'll be flat to

0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:23.680
<v Speaker 3>the same amount of people, maybe down a little bit,

0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 3>but all paid more and all being applied to the

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 3>highest value tasks where frankly, the machines can't do the work.

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 4>And that's the important thing.

0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:33.400
<v Speaker 3>We know these We know what this AI can do

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 3>in today's world. Erica has been out there for seven years,

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 3>three billion customer interactions, twenty million customers using.

0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 4>It all the time. We see what it could do.

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 3>We took that and put it in our commercial business

0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 3>We took that and put it in our internal process.

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:49.040
<v Speaker 3>We got other models to help in Jimmy DeMar's business

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 3>in terms of a thing called optimists and things like that.

0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.880
<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of out there, but what you're learning

0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 3>is is still augmented intelligence and that will be what's

0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:00.360
<v Speaker 3>driving the near term efficiency. So yes, I think the

0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 3>headcount management is one of the core tasks that managers

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:03.280
<v Speaker 3>have to take.

0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 5>Seriously, I'm just wondering, Brian, as you train all of

0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:09.680
<v Speaker 5>these new students, how do you make sure that they

0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:11.840
<v Speaker 5>stay with you and don't go to some of your

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 5>brethren across the way in the private asset sphere.

0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:22.360
<v Speaker 3>Well, we provide them a good opportunity and look, they

0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.080
<v Speaker 3>can go other places, but we've been able to retain enough.

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.560
<v Speaker 3>We're completely happy and look even for our clients.

0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:30.440
<v Speaker 4>Frankly, if they.

0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 3>Hire our teammates, it's not the worst thing that happens

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 3>in all our businesses. But the roality is is that

0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 3>we want these teammates to have a career mindset. In October,

0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.320
<v Speaker 3>I'll celebrate our teammates have been with our company fifty years,

0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 3>fifty five years, sixty years, et cetera. And you hear

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.680
<v Speaker 3>their stories and their stories of I joined this company,

0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:51.200
<v Speaker 3>I worked in a summer internship, I came may even.

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:52.479
<v Speaker 4>Work part time during college.

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.280
<v Speaker 3>I became a full time employee and I started doing

0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 3>this and now I do that. And those are wonderful stories,

0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 3>and we have them tell those stories to our teammates

0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 3>to show you that you can have a long term

0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:04.879
<v Speaker 3>career at a company like ours. And that's what we

0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:06.800
<v Speaker 3>want our teammates to come in with. They may not

0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 3>stay in trading or investment banking or corporate banking, but

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.440
<v Speaker 3>they'll have long term capabilities here.

0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:13.159
<v Speaker 4>And you've seen that.

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:15.560
<v Speaker 3>Even top of house Alistair was a capital market sead

0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:17.800
<v Speaker 3>and now he's the CFO, and so that goes on

0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:18.920
<v Speaker 3>throughout the company.

0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:22.119
<v Speaker 2>They swear an oath of allegiance, yes exactly, and you

0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 2>see them lining up this morning.

0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:25.840
<v Speaker 7>That gave in before they come.

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:27.880
<v Speaker 5>In, I promise on my capushino, which is very good.

0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:29.399
<v Speaker 2>By the way, Brian, I want to talk about the

0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:31.639
<v Speaker 2>main fan that takes place later on this afternoon.

0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:33.119
<v Speaker 7>I'm not going to ask for your guests.

0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.520
<v Speaker 2>I know how much you respect the team behind me

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 2>and some of the official forecast of the bank. I

0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 2>once to understand from your perspective, looking across the eight

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:44.960
<v Speaker 2>lines of business, whether you see an economy market activity

0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:48.240
<v Speaker 2>that demands of rate cut from this Furer reserve.

0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:51.760
<v Speaker 3>Well, you've had the benefit of all our experts, and

0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:54.720
<v Speaker 3>we have the talent of extremely talented research team, and

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.480
<v Speaker 3>you also have some online of business teammates talk about

0:17:57.480 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 3>what they see out there. I think you have to

0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:01.600
<v Speaker 3>back up if you're if you think about last year

0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:05.480
<v Speaker 3>this time, the projected growth rates for our team was

0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.960
<v Speaker 3>probably one hundred basis points higher than it is today

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:13.720
<v Speaker 3>for twenty five and so that acceleration of growth, the

0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:15.879
<v Speaker 3>prediction that was largely based.

0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.040
<v Speaker 4>On a couple of things.

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 3>One, rates would stay higher because inflation was kicking in,

0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.720
<v Speaker 3>the impact of the uncertain terrorist et cetera, et cetera,

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:26.200
<v Speaker 3>all that's coming through the system now, so you're seeing

0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.320
<v Speaker 3>some certainty fall into place on this. And I think

0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:31.199
<v Speaker 3>also inflation was coming down. And I think so the

0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 3>tension the FED has to deal with, and you've been

0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 3>picking out it all day, is a tension between a

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.280
<v Speaker 3>higher inflation rate and ultimately where FED funds could settle

0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.639
<v Speaker 3>in at And so whether they do twenty five basis

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.080
<v Speaker 3>points today or fifty people have to keep in mind

0:18:44.480 --> 0:18:47.639
<v Speaker 3>the growth rate in economy was brought down and now.

0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:48.640
<v Speaker 4>It's starting to go back up.

0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:50.600
<v Speaker 3>So next year is predicted to be better this year

0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:52.440
<v Speaker 3>and the year after is better than that. So you

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:55.439
<v Speaker 3>hear teammates talk about the economy growing back out, and

0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 3>that then means we're on the other side of it,

0:18:57.440 --> 0:19:00.639
<v Speaker 3>And so the FED has to adjust to the inflat picture.

0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:03.360
<v Speaker 3>As it got more in control. They can come down.

0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:06.040
<v Speaker 3>They came down to one hundred basis points already. It

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:07.840
<v Speaker 3>can keep coming down, but they've got to be very

0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:10.200
<v Speaker 3>mindful of the inflation side. And so I think when

0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.160
<v Speaker 3>the people get in the room and they see the data,

0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:13.080
<v Speaker 3>they have to think it through.

0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:15.080
<v Speaker 4>The big newsance that you're referenced.

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:17.400
<v Speaker 3>Early was the labor market's gotten softer, so that gave

0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:19.679
<v Speaker 3>them concerns. So I think, you know, the market believes

0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:21.680
<v Speaker 3>and our teammates believe the cut rates, but I think

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:24.880
<v Speaker 3>the key for people is acceleration and growth and will

0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:28.240
<v Speaker 3>growth reaccelerate. Our teammates seeing that we're seeing consumer spending

0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:30.440
<v Speaker 3>strong and all those things which would indicate we'd see

0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:34.040
<v Speaker 3>the acceleration next year is better than this year. Unemployment

0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:35.960
<v Speaker 3>is not expected to go up a lot, even though

0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:38.880
<v Speaker 3>the employement picture may be softer. But the most important

0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.720
<v Speaker 3>thing is the long term interest rate scenario people projecting

0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.600
<v Speaker 3>is a more normal rate environment that we saw before

0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:47.560
<v Speaker 3>the financial crisis, say three percent plus or minds on

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:49.760
<v Speaker 3>the FEDS fund rate of four to four and a

0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 3>half percent or so, on a tenure rate, and a

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:56.160
<v Speaker 3>curve that's not inverted, that's normalized between that. The important

0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:58.120
<v Speaker 3>thing is to get back to more of a normal environment,

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:00.960
<v Speaker 3>frankly with maybe a little higher in fla because a

0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:03.920
<v Speaker 3>great debate about two percent is something you can get.

0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 3>Lots of experts talk about a little higher inflation, a

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:09.639
<v Speaker 3>little faster growth, and then frankly that'll help with some

0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:11.440
<v Speaker 3>of the debt carry and other things going on in

0:20:11.440 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 3>the US economy.

0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 5>Brian, it sounds like next year you see the bigger

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.920
<v Speaker 5>risk as potentially a surprising a bout of inflation and

0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:19.960
<v Speaker 5>some sort of downturn.

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:20.679
<v Speaker 6>Is that correct?

0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:24.399
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think the question is is how do you

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.280
<v Speaker 3>tolerate the inflation and temp the nature of it, what's

0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:29.879
<v Speaker 3>come from. But you know, and I think that's the tension.

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:32.120
<v Speaker 3>All this I think is next year, as you get

0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.080
<v Speaker 3>to the second quarter. As these policies are now in

0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:35.720
<v Speaker 3>place and are behind us, are you going to see

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:40.040
<v Speaker 3>the acceleration and growth and where our businesses get start best,

0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:42.640
<v Speaker 3>even faster if you listen. I think if you ask

0:20:42.720 --> 0:20:45.600
<v Speaker 3>Wendy about it, she would tell you her commercial customers

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.120
<v Speaker 3>that have lines of credit are still borrowing less as

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:51.160
<v Speaker 3>a percentage of their availability than they did. It's sort

0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:54.520
<v Speaker 3>of the seventeen eighteen nineteen timeframe where rates have been

0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.119
<v Speaker 3>have been moved up and the economy is growing, and

0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:00.560
<v Speaker 3>so why is that It probably not seemed quite the opportunity,

0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.000
<v Speaker 3>and so they're trying to sort this all out, and well,

0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 3>you know, I've got the benefit in the honor of

0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:09.040
<v Speaker 3>leading company, has this talented team behind us, and all

0:21:09.080 --> 0:21:11.880
<v Speaker 3>the talent and money we spend on research and everything.

0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:14.000
<v Speaker 3>If I'm running a company that the three of us

0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:15.879
<v Speaker 3>owned and it was a manufacturing company, I got to

0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:18.560
<v Speaker 3>figure out all myself that tends to hold people back.

0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 3>So that would be the case for acceleration. And then

0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:23.560
<v Speaker 3>the question is if rate stay a little higher and

0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:26.119
<v Speaker 3>the growth is hired, that's not a bad place for

0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:26.879
<v Speaker 3>the America to be.

0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:29.960
<v Speaker 2>Brian, just before you go, what is to sneak this

0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:32.680
<v Speaker 2>in one final question, Whose door do I need to

0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:34.120
<v Speaker 2>knock for World Cup tickets?

0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:35.600
<v Speaker 7>Who makes that happen here?

0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:37.280
<v Speaker 4>Well, you missed.

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:39.719
<v Speaker 3>You didn't bring David Tyree on, who's doing all our

0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 3>marketing and work, and so he's the guy that's got

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:45.600
<v Speaker 3>control of the tickets video has a great job.

0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:49.119
<v Speaker 4>Or is look our relationship with FIFA. You know we

0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:50.240
<v Speaker 4>did the you had.

0:21:50.119 --> 0:21:51.720
<v Speaker 3>The Club World Cup, which was sort of the warm

0:21:51.800 --> 0:21:54.359
<v Speaker 3>up and next year and you'll see us accelerate our efforts.

0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:58.359
<v Speaker 3>We have great capabilities for our clients. But most importantly,

0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:03.000
<v Speaker 3>this is a chance for America to showcase football soccer

0:22:03.040 --> 0:22:05.719
<v Speaker 3>as we call it. It's a case for these cities

0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:07.800
<v Speaker 3>that are hosting to put on a great show. And

0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:10.720
<v Speaker 3>I think I can see the enthusiasm building.

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:12.720
<v Speaker 4>And you're not the first person that ask for take us, John,

0:22:13.560 --> 0:22:14.200
<v Speaker 4>stay with us.

0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:27.320
<v Speaker 2>More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. Savita Subramani, the

0:22:27.359 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 2>head of US Equity and Quantitative Strategy, right in the

0:22:29.880 --> 0:22:32.600
<v Speaker 2>following It is difficult to be outright bearish on risk

0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:36.080
<v Speaker 2>assets with signs of profits continuing to accelerate alongside a

0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:39.399
<v Speaker 2>FED that is more likely to ease than hold short rates.

0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:42.200
<v Speaker 2>Savita plus Jill Carey Hall, the head of US Small

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:44.720
<v Speaker 2>and midcapt strategy at Bank for America, joined us Now

0:22:44.720 --> 0:22:46.280
<v Speaker 2>for more guys going to see you both.

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:48.040
<v Speaker 7>Great to be Thanks for being here, Savita.

0:22:48.040 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 2>I want to start with you a central message of

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:54.399
<v Speaker 2>your research for a long long time. Never underestimate the

0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 2>resilience of corporate America.

0:22:56.400 --> 0:22:56.720
<v Speaker 6>That's right.

0:22:56.880 --> 0:22:59.040
<v Speaker 2>Is that a mistake? People have made it too many

0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:00.000
<v Speaker 2>times this year so far.

0:23:01.080 --> 0:23:01.359
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:04.520
<v Speaker 8>I think we even made it after Liberation Day and

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.359
<v Speaker 8>thinking that, you know, we were going to see companies

0:23:07.480 --> 0:23:10.240
<v Speaker 8>not being able to guide, not being able to navigate

0:23:10.760 --> 0:23:14.560
<v Speaker 8>this really complicated environment. And what we saw is corporates

0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:20.600
<v Speaker 8>handling this with a plum and essentially they continued to

0:23:20.680 --> 0:23:24.760
<v Speaker 8>guide on earnings. We saw no paucity of information. We

0:23:24.840 --> 0:23:28.879
<v Speaker 8>heard a lot of companies talk about their teriff mitigation tactics,

0:23:29.320 --> 0:23:32.000
<v Speaker 8>which I think was interesting because they've seen this before,

0:23:32.160 --> 0:23:35.399
<v Speaker 8>they went through this in twenty eighteen. Obviously this is

0:23:35.440 --> 0:23:39.360
<v Speaker 8>a little bit more extreme, but companies know how to manage.

0:23:39.400 --> 0:23:41.720
<v Speaker 8>They just need a plan, and I think that was

0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:44.200
<v Speaker 8>what we were hardened to see.

0:23:44.680 --> 0:23:46.760
<v Speaker 2>It's all to have this conversation about twenty five or

0:23:46.800 --> 0:23:49.520
<v Speaker 2>fifty from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the

0:23:49.560 --> 0:23:52.159
<v Speaker 2>equity market is close to all time highs, and you

0:23:52.240 --> 0:23:54.280
<v Speaker 2>and the team here at Bank for America are essentially

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:57.400
<v Speaker 2>forecast to get acceleration and earnings for twenty twenty six.

0:23:57.920 --> 0:24:00.680
<v Speaker 7>Can you make that make sense to people I'm listening to.

0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:04.679
<v Speaker 8>This, Well, yeah, we're actually forecasting a slight deceleration but

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:08.159
<v Speaker 8>broadening out of earnings. And what I think is really

0:24:08.240 --> 0:24:11.199
<v Speaker 8>noteworthy and what investors need to pay attention to, is

0:24:11.200 --> 0:24:15.000
<v Speaker 8>the idea that the four ninety three is actually back

0:24:15.040 --> 0:24:17.440
<v Speaker 8>in the black. These are companies that are making money,

0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:20.760
<v Speaker 8>so it's not just tech all the time, which has

0:24:20.800 --> 0:24:23.840
<v Speaker 8>been the story for the last few years. I think

0:24:23.840 --> 0:24:26.560
<v Speaker 8>what's also interesting is that tech companies are spending, and

0:24:26.600 --> 0:24:28.280
<v Speaker 8>they're spending on everything.

0:24:28.359 --> 0:24:30.320
<v Speaker 6>They're spending on power grid.

0:24:30.280 --> 0:24:34.000
<v Speaker 8>Which is actually positive for overall economic growth, it's positive

0:24:34.040 --> 0:24:37.640
<v Speaker 8>for commodities, and I think that's the message we're giving

0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:42.360
<v Speaker 8>investors today. What's really thwarted broadening this year, I think,

0:24:42.480 --> 0:24:46.400
<v Speaker 8>is just this bomb of tariff uncertainty that was dropped

0:24:46.440 --> 0:24:49.800
<v Speaker 8>on April second, and we're at a point where clarity

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:53.800
<v Speaker 8>has improved vastly around that, and that issue.

0:24:53.400 --> 0:24:55.320
<v Speaker 5>Not just the four hundred ninety three the two thousand,

0:24:55.600 --> 0:24:57.919
<v Speaker 5>and I am wondering jail. We have seen a complete

0:24:57.920 --> 0:25:00.639
<v Speaker 5>outperformance from the Russels two thousand of late, and you

0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:04.040
<v Speaker 5>actually increased your expectations for some of these companies after

0:25:04.080 --> 0:25:07.080
<v Speaker 5>being pretty sour on them earlier this year, especially after

0:25:07.160 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 5>Jackson Hull. How much is this entirely predicated on what

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:12.160
<v Speaker 5>the FED does rather than what Savita is talking about,

0:25:12.200 --> 0:25:13.920
<v Speaker 5>which all sounds lovely, but it's been in effect for

0:25:14.000 --> 0:25:14.920
<v Speaker 5>quite a while.

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:17.560
<v Speaker 1>Right Well, I think the FED has certainly been the biggest,

0:25:17.720 --> 0:25:19.680
<v Speaker 1>one of the biggest drivers of the Russell two thousand

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 1>over the last year or two. Some of the biggest

0:25:21.760 --> 0:25:24.240
<v Speaker 1>rallies and sell offs we've seen have been around FED

0:25:24.280 --> 0:25:26.280
<v Speaker 1>expectations or data that feeds into that.

0:25:26.400 --> 0:25:29.120
<v Speaker 6>So I think, you know, the expectation of.

0:25:29.119 --> 0:25:31.840
<v Speaker 1>Cuts coming is certainly more positive for the Russell and

0:25:31.880 --> 0:25:33.480
<v Speaker 1>should lead it to outperform near term.

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:34.480
<v Speaker 6>But I think.

0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:36.879
<v Speaker 1>Also what investors have been focused on, perhaps more so

0:25:36.920 --> 0:25:39.320
<v Speaker 1>than usual, has been the profits backdrop. Because a year

0:25:39.320 --> 0:25:42.240
<v Speaker 1>ago everyone was expecting that by mid twenty twenty four

0:25:42.400 --> 0:25:45.040
<v Speaker 1>small caps would have come out of their profits recession,

0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:48.320
<v Speaker 1>that earnings would have broadened out and been outpacing large caps,

0:25:48.359 --> 0:25:50.600
<v Speaker 1>and that just kept getting kicked out and kicked out,

0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:53.520
<v Speaker 1>and we finally saw small caps come out of the

0:25:53.520 --> 0:25:56.120
<v Speaker 1>profits recession. This earning season, we saw a big beat

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:59.080
<v Speaker 1>by these companies. We saw much better guidance, So that's

0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:01.600
<v Speaker 1>been a positive sign. I mean, the sales data, the

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:04.359
<v Speaker 1>top line growth was a bit more lackluster relative to

0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:06.640
<v Speaker 1>large caps, So that's something to pay attention to as

0:26:06.640 --> 0:26:09.640
<v Speaker 1>we go into the next earning season. But the fact

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:13.640
<v Speaker 1>that profitability is finally recovering and speaks to that broadening

0:26:13.680 --> 0:26:15.280
<v Speaker 1>out of earnings is a positive.

0:26:15.440 --> 0:26:17.320
<v Speaker 5>Is the pop on the heels of a potential fed

0:26:17.400 --> 0:26:21.240
<v Speaker 5>rate cut because of just simply evaluation story that lower

0:26:21.280 --> 0:26:24.720
<v Speaker 5>benchmark rates make it more attractive on a relative basis,

0:26:25.080 --> 0:26:27.040
<v Speaker 5>or is it that actually they will borrow more, that

0:26:27.080 --> 0:26:29.280
<v Speaker 5>they can do more that they aren't doing now, whether

0:26:29.320 --> 0:26:31.919
<v Speaker 5>it's engage in M and A, whether it's engaged in acquisitions,

0:26:31.960 --> 0:26:34.120
<v Speaker 5>whether it's engaging in hiring plans.

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:36.119
<v Speaker 6>Right, I think it's a bit of all of that.

0:26:36.200 --> 0:26:38.679
<v Speaker 1>I think, but for small cap companies, they have a

0:26:38.680 --> 0:26:41.399
<v Speaker 1>lot of debt, much more than large caps do. They

0:26:41.440 --> 0:26:43.359
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of refinancing risk, they have a lot

0:26:43.359 --> 0:26:45.639
<v Speaker 1>of debt that's coming due over the next five years,

0:26:45.680 --> 0:26:48.920
<v Speaker 1>so there's a big focus on their interest costs at

0:26:48.920 --> 0:26:51.840
<v Speaker 1>a time when their earnings have already been struggling for

0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:55.439
<v Speaker 1>several years now in this profits recession. So you know,

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:59.080
<v Speaker 1>the FED is likely a bigger driver than usual given

0:26:59.119 --> 0:27:00.880
<v Speaker 1>that focus, given their leverage.

0:27:00.600 --> 0:27:01.800
<v Speaker 6>Profiles right now.

0:27:02.600 --> 0:27:06.440
<v Speaker 1>So combine that with some of the positive positives we're

0:27:06.440 --> 0:27:08.520
<v Speaker 1>seeing on the profits backdrop, and I think that's a

0:27:08.560 --> 0:27:11.159
<v Speaker 1>positive near term. Now, the sustainability of the rally, I

0:27:11.160 --> 0:27:15.280
<v Speaker 1>think will depend on you know, revisions, those top line trends,

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:18.920
<v Speaker 1>the manufacturing recovery. Small caps tend to be very sensitive

0:27:18.960 --> 0:27:21.960
<v Speaker 1>to the ISM manufacturing indicator, which has struggled to get

0:27:21.960 --> 0:27:24.919
<v Speaker 1>back above fifty. So a lot of these factors will

0:27:24.960 --> 0:27:27.359
<v Speaker 1>be what we're watching to see how sustainable this rally

0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:28.280
<v Speaker 1>in small caps could be.

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:29.760
<v Speaker 2>We had a guess to come on the program a

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:32.440
<v Speaker 2>few weeks ago that said to Lisa, can you name

0:27:32.480 --> 0:27:35.720
<v Speaker 2>a company on the Russell two thousand? Very few people can.

0:27:36.240 --> 0:27:39.360
<v Speaker 2>When they buy the Russell, what are they buying? What's

0:27:39.400 --> 0:27:43.400
<v Speaker 2>the concentration risk around say, small caps relative to Saveda's

0:27:43.440 --> 0:27:45.359
<v Speaker 2>world large caps in the s and P five hundred.

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:48.600
<v Speaker 1>Right, Well, there's some sector skews, certainly in terms of

0:27:48.800 --> 0:27:53.200
<v Speaker 1>more biotech. There's a lot more non profitable, non earner

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:56.080
<v Speaker 1>type of companies within the index, whether it be in biotech,

0:27:56.160 --> 0:28:00.159
<v Speaker 1>small caps, software, regional banks, reach. There are some of

0:28:00.160 --> 0:28:02.320
<v Speaker 1>these areas that are bigger within the Russell. But I

0:28:02.320 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 1>think what's important is that there are still risks to

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:07.400
<v Speaker 1>the index. There are a lot of like I said,

0:28:07.400 --> 0:28:11.040
<v Speaker 1>nonprofitable companies that's elevated versus history. So I also think

0:28:11.040 --> 0:28:14.560
<v Speaker 1>it's a very good environment to pick stocks within the index.

0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:18.159
<v Speaker 1>Our analysts here cover over nine hundred small and MidCap

0:28:18.240 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 1>US stocks, So you know, amid all of these uncertainties,

0:28:21.560 --> 0:28:25.920
<v Speaker 1>whether it's tariffs, whether it's how sustainable is this profit's recovery,

0:28:25.960 --> 0:28:28.440
<v Speaker 1>if you can focus on companies that you know have

0:28:28.480 --> 0:28:31.120
<v Speaker 1>better earnings, revisions, have stronger margins. There are a lot

0:28:31.119 --> 0:28:34.520
<v Speaker 1>of beaten down stocks within the Russell, and small caps

0:28:34.560 --> 0:28:37.920
<v Speaker 1>overall are trading at these big relative discounts to larger companies.

0:28:38.000 --> 0:28:40.160
<v Speaker 1>So it is a good environment for stock selection, and

0:28:40.200 --> 0:28:42.400
<v Speaker 1>we've seen the interest there. We saw a big uptick

0:28:42.400 --> 0:28:45.600
<v Speaker 1>in attendance at our recent Smidcap conference. We've seen investors

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:47.040
<v Speaker 1>buying small cap stocks this year.

0:28:47.080 --> 0:28:49.160
<v Speaker 5>Well, when you brought it out, this sort of complicated

0:28:49.160 --> 0:28:52.160
<v Speaker 5>backdrop goes to cdda recent change or both of you

0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 5>at recent change. In the outlook ahead, you only see

0:28:55.080 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 5>a six percent gain from here until twelve months out

0:28:58.760 --> 0:29:01.280
<v Speaker 5>until the same time next year to a better seven thousand.

0:29:01.360 --> 0:29:03.560
<v Speaker 5>That's far below where a lot of other people are.

0:29:04.000 --> 0:29:07.080
<v Speaker 5>Why not hire, especially given the expectation for earnings growth

0:29:07.160 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 5>to truly reaccelerate.

0:29:08.760 --> 0:29:12.960
<v Speaker 8>Well, I mean, here's the here's the problem. The ballast

0:29:13.120 --> 0:29:16.240
<v Speaker 8>of the S and P five hundred has been tech,

0:29:16.560 --> 0:29:20.160
<v Speaker 8>and tech earnings are slated to decelerate. I mean, these

0:29:20.200 --> 0:29:23.600
<v Speaker 8>companies are really big. It's harder to grow as fast.

0:29:24.120 --> 0:29:27.160
<v Speaker 8>These are companies that are spending more money on CAPEC

0:29:27.240 --> 0:29:29.400
<v Speaker 8>so they're returning a little bit less capital than they

0:29:29.520 --> 0:29:32.120
<v Speaker 8>used to doing less buyback. So I think that's the

0:29:33.080 --> 0:29:36.479
<v Speaker 8>other side of the story is the theme around AI,

0:29:36.640 --> 0:29:38.680
<v Speaker 8>and I think what we would need to see a

0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:42.680
<v Speaker 8>much higher return and even a positive surprise and earnings

0:29:42.680 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 8>at an index level is continued AI monetization, big surprises

0:29:49.440 --> 0:29:52.800
<v Speaker 8>akin to what we saw in the second quarter, And

0:29:53.000 --> 0:29:55.600
<v Speaker 8>it's harder and harder to forecast that as we move

0:29:55.640 --> 0:29:59.600
<v Speaker 8>forward and these companies get bigger and we're more deeper

0:29:59.640 --> 0:30:03.760
<v Speaker 8>into ai monetization cycle. So our analysts are bullish, but

0:30:03.800 --> 0:30:06.280
<v Speaker 8>we are still seeing a deceleration in that area of

0:30:06.280 --> 0:30:08.760
<v Speaker 8>the market. And then the other kind of simple fact

0:30:08.760 --> 0:30:11.240
<v Speaker 8>that we all know is the market tends to anticipate

0:30:11.320 --> 0:30:14.960
<v Speaker 8>earnings recoveries. We've seen some great returns this year. I

0:30:14.960 --> 0:30:19.960
<v Speaker 8>think that's in anticipation of what's to come. And you know,

0:30:20.240 --> 0:30:22.560
<v Speaker 8>typically in the best earnings years for the S and

0:30:22.600 --> 0:30:25.800
<v Speaker 8>P five hundred, the market actually posts kind of you

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:28.800
<v Speaker 8>know mech returns. So I don't know if we're going

0:30:28.880 --> 0:30:31.719
<v Speaker 8>to see another blockbuster year of returns, but I do

0:30:31.760 --> 0:30:33.600
<v Speaker 8>think that earnings are going to broaden out and that's

0:30:33.640 --> 0:30:34.840
<v Speaker 8>going to be an exciting story.

0:30:35.000 --> 0:30:38.160
<v Speaker 2>Given the focus today anticipating the federal serve decision, how

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:40.160
<v Speaker 2>relevant is that to your world?

0:30:40.440 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 8>Look, I mean, I know everyone is obsessed with the Fed,

0:30:44.720 --> 0:30:47.440
<v Speaker 8>but I think that long rates are much more important

0:30:47.480 --> 0:30:50.000
<v Speaker 8>for equities. And we've talked about this, so you know,

0:30:50.160 --> 0:30:54.600
<v Speaker 8>short rates have actually done very little to stemy large

0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:57.320
<v Speaker 8>cap company performance because their balance sheets are healthy, they

0:30:57.320 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 8>have less floating rate risk, they learn their less during

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:05.160
<v Speaker 8>the financial crisis and really managed their debt risk. So

0:31:05.760 --> 0:31:08.280
<v Speaker 8>I think the long end is more important. And here's

0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:10.640
<v Speaker 8>where it gets complicated. If the Fed is cutting but

0:31:10.720 --> 0:31:15.360
<v Speaker 8>inflation has not been you know, sufficiently managed, I think

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:18.640
<v Speaker 8>that's the that's the risk. It's the long end, you know,

0:31:18.680 --> 0:31:21.680
<v Speaker 8>absent yield curve control. The long end, I think is

0:31:21.960 --> 0:31:25.760
<v Speaker 8>is really you know, potentially more dramatic for the S

0:31:25.760 --> 0:31:25.920
<v Speaker 8>and P.

0:31:26.080 --> 0:31:26.920
<v Speaker 6>So that's what we're watching.

0:31:26.960 --> 0:31:28.600
<v Speaker 2>Is that something you're focused on, the risk of a

0:31:28.640 --> 0:31:31.000
<v Speaker 2>repeat of what we saw last year when the Federal

0:31:31.000 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 2>Reserve cut interest rates and the long end actually sold

0:31:33.440 --> 0:31:34.480
<v Speaker 2>off and yours rose.

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:36.400
<v Speaker 7>But I think about one hundred basis points.

0:31:36.120 --> 0:31:38.680
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, we had a real steepening. I mean, I think

0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:42.000
<v Speaker 8>that's good for certain sectors and bad for others. One

0:31:42.040 --> 0:31:44.800
<v Speaker 8>reason we're overweight financials, you know, energy some of the

0:31:44.840 --> 0:31:50.480
<v Speaker 8>more inflation positive sectors that are geared to inflation, those

0:31:50.520 --> 0:31:52.760
<v Speaker 8>are sectors that can do well in that environment. As

0:31:52.800 --> 0:31:55.880
<v Speaker 8>long as this is not a disorderly increase in the

0:31:55.920 --> 0:31:58.320
<v Speaker 8>long end, which is what you know we all worry about,

0:31:59.320 --> 0:32:00.440
<v Speaker 8>especially on this desk.

0:32:00.880 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 2>The good news is so far through September, stay with

0:32:05.560 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 2>us more Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this, let's keep

0:32:18.080 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 2>it on the federal reserve. Sticking with the economy, the

0:32:20.600 --> 0:32:23.840
<v Speaker 2>senior US economists here at Bank for America Securities with

0:32:23.960 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 2>this to say, another cut in October maybe on the

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:29.200
<v Speaker 2>table if the labor market were to weaken significantly further,

0:32:29.560 --> 0:32:32.320
<v Speaker 2>but it isn't our base case. A DT joint us

0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:33.280
<v Speaker 2>now for more at each and.

0:32:33.320 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 4>Monk, good morning, Thank you for having me.

0:32:35.360 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 7>Thank you for having us.

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:39.400
<v Speaker 2>Twenty five bases point cut expected later on this afternoon.

0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:41.840
<v Speaker 2>How much guidance can they provide beyond just that?

0:32:42.320 --> 0:32:44.360
<v Speaker 9>I think that's going to be the key question. What

0:32:44.440 --> 0:32:46.840
<v Speaker 9>does the dark blot show? So our base case is

0:32:46.880 --> 0:32:49.960
<v Speaker 9>that the dark blood medion will show only fifty basis

0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:53.200
<v Speaker 9>points of cuts this year, so another twenty five potentially

0:32:53.240 --> 0:32:53.760
<v Speaker 9>in December.

0:32:53.760 --> 0:32:54.880
<v Speaker 7>And the reason we think that it.

0:32:54.840 --> 0:32:57.560
<v Speaker 9>Will only be fifty rather than seventy five is that

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:00.720
<v Speaker 9>if you look at the macro forecasts from the June

0:33:00.840 --> 0:33:04.600
<v Speaker 9>SEP they've actually aged remarkably well. Unemployment is on track

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:07.320
<v Speaker 9>to meet their forecast, so as inflation and growth, if anything,

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:09.800
<v Speaker 9>will come in a little bit stronger. Obviously, you've already

0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:12.480
<v Speaker 9>heard a lot about the risks of reacceleration here.

0:33:12.880 --> 0:33:14.520
<v Speaker 4>So given that, and.

0:33:14.480 --> 0:33:17.360
<v Speaker 9>Given that the dot plot medium almost showed one cut

0:33:17.520 --> 0:33:19.880
<v Speaker 9>back in June, even a little bit of a dubbish

0:33:19.880 --> 0:33:21.560
<v Speaker 9>move would still probably keep it at two.

0:33:21.880 --> 0:33:24.400
<v Speaker 5>You talk about a dubvish move, there's a question about

0:33:24.440 --> 0:33:27.600
<v Speaker 5>the actual cut or the signal going forward, not just

0:33:27.600 --> 0:33:29.960
<v Speaker 5>the signal and number of rate cuts. But something Mark

0:33:29.960 --> 0:33:32.720
<v Speaker 5>Cabanni or colleague talked about earlier was the idea of

0:33:32.720 --> 0:33:37.000
<v Speaker 5>the third mandate, the idea of keeping rates moderate over

0:33:37.040 --> 0:33:39.160
<v Speaker 5>a longer period of time as one of the three

0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:42.239
<v Speaker 5>pillars of the federals or if that were adopted, how

0:33:42.320 --> 0:33:44.720
<v Speaker 5>much would that change your outlook as an economist.

0:33:45.200 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 9>So moderate is not a clearly defined term, So we'll

0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:53.200
<v Speaker 9>have to see if going forward, potentially different group of

0:33:53.200 --> 0:33:55.520
<v Speaker 9>people at the FED have a different have a more

0:33:55.560 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 9>specific definition of moderate. But for now, what I see

0:33:59.280 --> 0:34:01.640
<v Speaker 9>is an eon me that's probably pretty close to the

0:34:01.680 --> 0:34:04.240
<v Speaker 9>neutral rate. You look at where stocks are, you look

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:06.320
<v Speaker 9>at the fact that productivity might be picking up, and

0:34:06.360 --> 0:34:08.000
<v Speaker 9>I don't think there is a clear case here that

0:34:08.040 --> 0:34:09.760
<v Speaker 9>the economy is screaming for rate cuts.

0:34:09.840 --> 0:34:12.480
<v Speaker 5>If that's the case, why is an inflation more of

0:34:12.520 --> 0:34:15.200
<v Speaker 5>a concern, Why aren't we seeing that baked into market

0:34:15.239 --> 0:34:18.239
<v Speaker 5>expectations just a bit more so, you are.

0:34:18.239 --> 0:34:21.960
<v Speaker 9>Actually seeing inflation fixings showing a little bit of a

0:34:21.960 --> 0:34:24.600
<v Speaker 9>pickup in inflation. Our core view has been that it's

0:34:24.680 --> 0:34:29.200
<v Speaker 9>not just about trade policy, it's also about underlying inflation,

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 9>and underlying inflation for US is stuck around two and

0:34:32.520 --> 0:34:34.640
<v Speaker 9>a half percent, and we think it'll remain that way

0:34:34.680 --> 0:34:37.280
<v Speaker 9>going forward, which is why even as the tariff effects

0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:39.160
<v Speaker 9>roll off next year, we only have the core PC

0:34:39.360 --> 0:34:40.720
<v Speaker 9>going down to two point six percent.

0:34:40.960 --> 0:34:43.759
<v Speaker 2>There was quite a difference between July chair pal and

0:34:43.880 --> 0:34:46.319
<v Speaker 2>Jackson holl chair pal, and understand it was a big

0:34:46.360 --> 0:34:48.719
<v Speaker 2>payroll report in between, but it was a difference in

0:34:48.760 --> 0:34:50.680
<v Speaker 2>approach and how we anchored his view around the labor

0:34:50.760 --> 0:34:53.439
<v Speaker 2>market that got my attention. He anchored his view around

0:34:53.480 --> 0:34:56.040
<v Speaker 2>the labor market, around the unemployment right in July, and

0:34:56.080 --> 0:34:58.239
<v Speaker 2>then we got to Jackson Holl and clearly he was

0:34:58.400 --> 0:35:01.640
<v Speaker 2>spoot by a step down in payrolls growth. You've been

0:35:01.640 --> 0:35:04.080
<v Speaker 2>focused on measures of slack and now traditionally that's something

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:07.480
<v Speaker 2>the feder Reserve monetary policy makers would be focused on too.

0:35:07.800 --> 0:35:11.240
<v Speaker 2>Have you seen a significant deterioration in measures of slack

0:35:11.320 --> 0:35:14.840
<v Speaker 2>alongside this monster step down we've seen in payrolls growth.

0:35:15.080 --> 0:35:17.960
<v Speaker 9>So what Powell said in July, which was viewed as

0:35:18.040 --> 0:35:21.520
<v Speaker 9>very hawkish by markets, was that even if payrold growth

0:35:21.560 --> 0:35:24.560
<v Speaker 9>is zero, if the unemployment rate isn't increasing, then that's

0:35:24.600 --> 0:35:26.600
<v Speaker 9>where break even is and the FED doesn't really need

0:35:26.640 --> 0:35:27.440
<v Speaker 9>to be concerned about that.

0:35:27.480 --> 0:35:28.920
<v Speaker 4>And what we wrote at the.

0:35:28.960 --> 0:35:32.239
<v Speaker 9>Time was it's one thing to say it, and it's

0:35:32.280 --> 0:35:34.680
<v Speaker 9>another thing to walk the talk when you actually see

0:35:34.680 --> 0:35:37.360
<v Speaker 9>the data and that number, that two hundred and fifty

0:35:37.400 --> 0:35:39.640
<v Speaker 9>eight thousand downward revision, I think.

0:35:39.520 --> 0:35:40.400
<v Speaker 4>It's spooked the FED.

0:35:41.040 --> 0:35:44.720
<v Speaker 9>And yes, there's been some deterioration and signs of labor slack.

0:35:44.800 --> 0:35:49.080
<v Speaker 9>You can look at the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers,

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:51.360
<v Speaker 9>you can look at the labor market differential from the

0:35:51.360 --> 0:35:54.160
<v Speaker 9>conference board. All of those are showing some increase in slack,

0:35:54.239 --> 0:35:55.920
<v Speaker 9>but it's been relatively modern.

0:35:56.120 --> 0:35:57.040
<v Speaker 7>Spook them into one.

0:35:57.360 --> 0:36:00.320
<v Speaker 2>I think that's what we're wrestling with today, to a

0:36:00.400 --> 0:36:03.799
<v Speaker 2>twenty five basis point risk management decision, or spoke them

0:36:03.840 --> 0:36:06.719
<v Speaker 2>into We need to come out and convey to market

0:36:06.800 --> 0:36:09.800
<v Speaker 2>participants today that this is the journey back towards neutral

0:36:10.120 --> 0:36:12.439
<v Speaker 2>and We think neutral is around three, and we're looking

0:36:12.480 --> 0:36:13.200
<v Speaker 2>to get there quickly.

0:36:14.080 --> 0:36:16.040
<v Speaker 9>The Committee is going to be divided on that question,

0:36:16.480 --> 0:36:19.280
<v Speaker 9>and the key question that will hat to answered today

0:36:19.480 --> 0:36:22.280
<v Speaker 9>is where does powel land. Is he on the side

0:36:22.440 --> 0:36:23.960
<v Speaker 9>of we need to do a little bit, but we

0:36:24.000 --> 0:36:25.520
<v Speaker 9>don't need to do a lot, or is he on

0:36:25.600 --> 0:36:27.279
<v Speaker 9>the side of we need to go all the way

0:36:27.320 --> 0:36:30.040
<v Speaker 9>back to neutral. We're in the first camp, but we'll

0:36:30.120 --> 0:36:30.960
<v Speaker 9>learn more today.

0:36:31.239 --> 0:36:33.839
<v Speaker 5>How much are you going to take true signal from

0:36:33.880 --> 0:36:36.400
<v Speaker 5>whatever Governor Myron has to say? How much is he

0:36:36.600 --> 0:36:39.800
<v Speaker 5>the new loadstar in some ways of the committee in

0:36:39.840 --> 0:36:41.879
<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty six, if not today.

0:36:42.080 --> 0:36:44.840
<v Speaker 9>I think it'll depend on how much the committee changes

0:36:44.920 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 9>next year. That's still an open question. We don't know

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:50.680
<v Speaker 9>how many seats will be available on the board, we

0:36:50.760 --> 0:36:53.080
<v Speaker 9>don't know how much turnover potentially they'll be amongst the

0:36:53.120 --> 0:36:55.600
<v Speaker 9>regional presidents, So that's I would say, very much an

0:36:55.680 --> 0:36:58.160
<v Speaker 9>open question. But for this meeting, we know that Governor

0:36:58.200 --> 0:36:58.840
<v Speaker 9>Myron will.

0:36:58.719 --> 0:37:00.840
<v Speaker 7>Be an outlier stay with us.

0:37:01.239 --> 0:37:13.600
<v Speaker 2>More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. I'm pleased to say.

0:37:13.600 --> 0:37:16.240
<v Speaker 2>They were joined by Bank of America's newly appointed co president,

0:37:16.560 --> 0:37:17.960
<v Speaker 2>Jim Demard, Jim's good to see you.

0:37:18.160 --> 0:37:18.680
<v Speaker 4>Great to see you.

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:20.960
<v Speaker 2>Is it Jim or Jimmy? I'm always confused. Brian called

0:37:20.960 --> 0:37:22.600
<v Speaker 2>you Jimmy. You can call me whatever you were gone

0:37:22.600 --> 0:37:27.440
<v Speaker 2>with Jim either either's either's a more than an except Jimmy. Congratulations, congratulates,

0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:29.600
<v Speaker 2>Thanks very much, appreciate. It's fantastic to get some time

0:37:29.640 --> 0:37:31.440
<v Speaker 2>with you. I want to shout by talking about markets

0:37:31.440 --> 0:37:34.279
<v Speaker 2>before we talk about the operations stuff. I've lost count

0:37:34.320 --> 0:37:35.880
<v Speaker 2>of how many quarters that you've seen growth in the

0:37:35.880 --> 0:37:36.440
<v Speaker 2>market's unit?

0:37:36.480 --> 0:37:37.040
<v Speaker 7>What are we on now?

0:37:39.239 --> 0:37:42.960
<v Speaker 10>Thirteen as of the lasts of the second quarter earnings

0:37:43.000 --> 0:37:43.600
<v Speaker 10>are coming soon.

0:37:44.719 --> 0:37:47.040
<v Speaker 4>We have to wait till those come out.

0:37:47.120 --> 0:37:49.919
<v Speaker 10>But you know, we indicated at the Barclays conference last

0:37:49.920 --> 0:37:53.120
<v Speaker 10>week and when Brian's woke before, you know, in single

0:37:53.160 --> 0:37:56.279
<v Speaker 10>digits for the market. So knock on wood, we should

0:37:56.320 --> 0:37:57.640
<v Speaker 10>be u we should be at fourteen.

0:37:57.800 --> 0:38:00.279
<v Speaker 7>Where's that growth coming from? And just how crazy? See

0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:02.960
<v Speaker 7>was the start a Q two yeah, twenty five?

0:38:03.160 --> 0:38:03.359
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:38:03.400 --> 0:38:06.399
<v Speaker 10>I think for us it's been a story of having

0:38:06.400 --> 0:38:09.920
<v Speaker 10>the additional financial resources to help clients execute one on

0:38:10.000 --> 0:38:12.680
<v Speaker 10>what they want to execute because markets have grown considerably

0:38:12.760 --> 0:38:16.160
<v Speaker 10>in size and market value, and taking a step back

0:38:16.200 --> 0:38:18.160
<v Speaker 10>from that. For us, our equities business, it's been a

0:38:18.239 --> 0:38:20.400
<v Speaker 10>huge focus for us the past four years, investments in

0:38:20.880 --> 0:38:24.600
<v Speaker 10>you know, financial resources plus people plus technology, and then

0:38:24.800 --> 0:38:27.680
<v Speaker 10>you know, within the thick kind of sector, if you will,

0:38:29.880 --> 0:38:31.919
<v Speaker 10>the rates business has been a place where we haven't

0:38:31.960 --> 0:38:34.480
<v Speaker 10>done as well as we think we can, and we've

0:38:34.520 --> 0:38:35.719
<v Speaker 10>seen it turn around there as well.

0:38:35.920 --> 0:38:38.200
<v Speaker 5>Maybe the FED will help you out, especially today.

0:38:38.680 --> 0:38:43.000
<v Speaker 10>A lot of anticipation, as you mentioned, you know, great

0:38:43.080 --> 0:38:45.719
<v Speaker 10>deal of variance in terms of not necessarily this meeting

0:38:45.800 --> 0:38:48.200
<v Speaker 10>but you know with the next six to ten months

0:38:48.239 --> 0:38:48.680
<v Speaker 10>brings us.

0:38:49.000 --> 0:38:50.560
<v Speaker 5>John alluded to it, and I think it's a really

0:38:50.600 --> 0:38:54.440
<v Speaker 5>important point. There's a tension between this push for the

0:38:54.520 --> 0:38:58.640
<v Speaker 5>FED to ease financial conditions given the fact that financial conditions,

0:38:58.920 --> 0:39:01.160
<v Speaker 5>at least you could probably tell us what other people

0:39:01.200 --> 0:39:03.440
<v Speaker 5>have told us, seem pretty easy. Yes, they seem like

0:39:03.520 --> 0:39:05.920
<v Speaker 5>pretty flowing and people can go out more money if

0:39:05.960 --> 0:39:06.320
<v Speaker 5>they need to.

0:39:06.480 --> 0:39:07.799
<v Speaker 7>Can you square that circle for us?

0:39:08.560 --> 0:39:09.799
<v Speaker 10>You know, I think what we've done a very poor

0:39:09.920 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 10>job of is talking about financial conditions based on size

0:39:14.600 --> 0:39:18.640
<v Speaker 10>of companies or you know, individuals themselves. We've broken it down,

0:39:18.840 --> 0:39:21.439
<v Speaker 10>you know, you had Liz on this morning. We're talking

0:39:21.440 --> 0:39:25.480
<v Speaker 10>about small business and what's going on there, you know,

0:39:25.600 --> 0:39:28.200
<v Speaker 10>smaller businesses and on the lower end of the economic

0:39:29.920 --> 0:39:32.000
<v Speaker 10>kind of scale, if you will. For individuals, they're more

0:39:32.040 --> 0:39:36.960
<v Speaker 10>sensitive to short term rates in floating rates. So yeah,

0:39:36.960 --> 0:39:40.040
<v Speaker 10>if you're a large corporation, you've been you've had you know,

0:39:40.160 --> 0:39:42.880
<v Speaker 10>easy access to the markets have been very favorable. You issued,

0:39:43.080 --> 0:39:45.319
<v Speaker 10>you know, you refinanced that back in twenty twenty one,

0:39:45.800 --> 0:39:49.000
<v Speaker 10>and you locked in some very low rates. Homeowners did

0:39:49.040 --> 0:39:51.560
<v Speaker 10>the same, you know, mortgage rates were below you know,

0:39:51.719 --> 0:39:56.200
<v Speaker 10>three percent. And again if you were you know, if

0:39:56.239 --> 0:39:59.040
<v Speaker 10>you're a smaller business and you relied on floating rate

0:39:59.080 --> 0:40:01.360
<v Speaker 10>det and you don't have access to the broader capital markets,

0:40:01.400 --> 0:40:03.799
<v Speaker 10>this will be a relief. So I think, I think

0:40:03.840 --> 0:40:05.319
<v Speaker 10>that's a story that people should focus.

0:40:05.400 --> 0:40:07.560
<v Speaker 5>So I guess another way of saying this is when

0:40:07.600 --> 0:40:10.080
<v Speaker 5>the Fed started hiking rates, people are surprised at the

0:40:10.160 --> 0:40:13.600
<v Speaker 5>economy can just tumble into recession. Are we going to

0:40:13.680 --> 0:40:17.520
<v Speaker 5>be surprised by if the Fed cuts rates how little

0:40:17.880 --> 0:40:20.160
<v Speaker 5>it helps boost growth or do you think that it

0:40:20.160 --> 0:40:22.279
<v Speaker 5>will boost growth substantially, that we will see m and

0:40:22.320 --> 0:40:24.760
<v Speaker 5>a pick back up, that we will see borrowing increase

0:40:25.080 --> 0:40:25.600
<v Speaker 5>even more.

0:40:26.000 --> 0:40:27.960
<v Speaker 10>I think we're going to have to again bifurcate it

0:40:28.040 --> 0:40:29.880
<v Speaker 10>and take a look at different parts of the economy

0:40:29.920 --> 0:40:32.279
<v Speaker 10>and see who's benefiting. But your partner, you know, point

0:40:32.360 --> 0:40:36.400
<v Speaker 10>on MNA and activity. For all the pessimism and climbing

0:40:36.400 --> 0:40:38.960
<v Speaker 10>the wall of worry, I don't you know, there's a

0:40:39.000 --> 0:40:41.520
<v Speaker 10>lot of activity happening across a lot of sectors, whether

0:40:41.600 --> 0:40:46.240
<v Speaker 10>it's you know, tech, energy, utilities, power, you know, data,

0:40:46.800 --> 0:40:48.800
<v Speaker 10>financial services. We just saw you know, in M and

0:40:48.840 --> 0:40:51.040
<v Speaker 10>A activity and you know there's more discussions on that.

0:40:52.080 --> 0:40:54.560
<v Speaker 4>Healthcare, I don't know.

0:40:54.880 --> 0:40:58.360
<v Speaker 10>Equity prices are high, credits how suficed, and people and

0:40:58.440 --> 0:40:59.439
<v Speaker 10>companies are making money.

0:40:59.560 --> 0:41:01.520
<v Speaker 2>So where on earth are we going? The Fed's about

0:41:01.560 --> 0:41:04.399
<v Speaker 2>to reduce the whole thing. How are you thinking about things?

0:41:04.480 --> 0:41:06.480
<v Speaker 2>You've seen so many cycles?

0:41:06.680 --> 0:41:07.160
<v Speaker 4>What is this?

0:41:07.600 --> 0:41:09.840
<v Speaker 7>What is this moment? Very spooed period.

0:41:09.920 --> 0:41:12.600
<v Speaker 10>It's a very different one, that's for sure. There's some

0:41:12.719 --> 0:41:15.680
<v Speaker 10>information we put out recently that showed when the FED

0:41:15.800 --> 0:41:18.080
<v Speaker 10>is cut almost every I think it's been every single time,

0:41:18.120 --> 0:41:21.040
<v Speaker 10>and I don't remember the exact number, but into a

0:41:21.120 --> 0:41:24.279
<v Speaker 10>strong kind of equity market, we continue to get a

0:41:24.360 --> 0:41:25.800
<v Speaker 10>rally for the next twelve months.

0:41:26.640 --> 0:41:27.719
<v Speaker 4>So that's there.

0:41:28.000 --> 0:41:30.680
<v Speaker 7>At least, But can I just push this point.

0:41:30.920 --> 0:41:33.080
<v Speaker 2>I want to understand from your perspective, whether it's something

0:41:33.520 --> 0:41:36.600
<v Speaker 2>more than that, whether some kind of great misallocation of

0:41:36.680 --> 0:41:40.479
<v Speaker 2>resources is building care. I can't think of many times

0:41:40.520 --> 0:41:43.200
<v Speaker 2>where I've met investors who are incredibly aggressive about the

0:41:43.239 --> 0:41:45.960
<v Speaker 2>capex spend of a handful of companies. Yes, it's sent

0:41:46.040 --> 0:41:48.640
<v Speaker 2>the equity markets to all time highs, and the Federal

0:41:48.640 --> 0:41:51.040
<v Speaker 2>Reserve again is about to come out later on this

0:41:51.200 --> 0:41:54.320
<v Speaker 2>afternoon and duce the whole thing by even more potentially.

0:41:54.360 --> 0:41:56.960
<v Speaker 7>I understand what they're responding to. It's the payroll story.

0:41:57.200 --> 0:41:59.719
<v Speaker 2>I want to understand the consequences from a market perspective,

0:42:00.239 --> 0:42:02.359
<v Speaker 2>just how dicey things might get further down the road.

0:42:03.640 --> 0:42:05.520
<v Speaker 10>Again, I think you, I think we have to see

0:42:05.560 --> 0:42:08.279
<v Speaker 10>a considerable drop in longer term rates to really get

0:42:08.360 --> 0:42:12.040
<v Speaker 10>that traditional impact. You know, we had an inverted curve

0:42:12.120 --> 0:42:14.600
<v Speaker 10>for an extended period of time, which everybody indicated should

0:42:15.120 --> 0:42:19.000
<v Speaker 10>should indicate a weakening economy, which we which we didn't see.

0:42:19.800 --> 0:42:23.839
<v Speaker 10>Into your earlier question, I don't think we ever had

0:42:23.880 --> 0:42:29.359
<v Speaker 10>in history fiscal and monetary possible policy at odds.

0:42:29.160 --> 0:42:29.920
<v Speaker 4>And that's what we had.

0:42:29.960 --> 0:42:31.799
<v Speaker 10>I mean, everybody talked about, well rates are four hundred

0:42:31.840 --> 0:42:34.280
<v Speaker 10>basis points. Well, you know, we also had the largest

0:42:34.280 --> 0:42:38.520
<v Speaker 10>spend by the federal government, you know, in history, not

0:42:38.640 --> 0:42:40.960
<v Speaker 10>only an absolute dollars, but as a percentage of the economy.

0:42:41.040 --> 0:42:43.000
<v Speaker 4>So the policies weren't aligned.

0:42:43.200 --> 0:42:45.279
<v Speaker 10>That's a that's a We talked about it a bit,

0:42:45.480 --> 0:42:48.719
<v Speaker 10>then you know, two years later, three years later, we're

0:42:48.760 --> 0:42:50.640
<v Speaker 10>talking less about it. But I think it's going to

0:42:50.680 --> 0:42:52.799
<v Speaker 10>be you know, is this going to be inflation area.

0:42:52.800 --> 0:42:54.880
<v Speaker 10>I think people have to also think about fiscal policy

0:42:54.920 --> 0:42:57.040
<v Speaker 10>and what's going to happen there relative to what the

0:42:57.080 --> 0:42:58.080
<v Speaker 10>monetary policy is.

0:42:58.320 --> 0:43:01.719
<v Speaker 5>There's also the idea of doria, which se quite a

0:43:01.760 --> 0:43:03.400
<v Speaker 5>bit and that's one reason why people have been very

0:43:03.440 --> 0:43:06.640
<v Speaker 5>optimistic banking space. Does that allow you to take more

0:43:06.719 --> 0:43:09.279
<v Speaker 5>risk and compete more significantly, say with some of the

0:43:09.320 --> 0:43:12.839
<v Speaker 5>private asset managers that have really made more headway into

0:43:12.880 --> 0:43:13.799
<v Speaker 5>the space. Yeah.

0:43:13.840 --> 0:43:16.240
<v Speaker 10>I think for us on the and for the industry

0:43:16.640 --> 0:43:18.680
<v Speaker 10>on regulation, it's more about clarity, which is one of

0:43:18.760 --> 0:43:20.880
<v Speaker 10>the things that you know, we've talked about a great bit,

0:43:20.920 --> 0:43:25.239
<v Speaker 10>whether it's stress testing, some things on slr G, SIB,

0:43:25.640 --> 0:43:28.040
<v Speaker 10>you know, those are all things that I think play

0:43:28.080 --> 0:43:31.800
<v Speaker 10>an important role in regulation, you know, in a safe environment,

0:43:31.920 --> 0:43:33.480
<v Speaker 10>but you know a lot of questions around where they

0:43:34.120 --> 0:43:38.160
<v Speaker 10>uh too restrictive and you know, countpounding as opposed to

0:43:38.560 --> 0:43:41.160
<v Speaker 10>kind of catching the bubble from or the balloon from

0:43:41.160 --> 0:43:44.239
<v Speaker 10>squeezing out in another direction, I.

0:43:44.360 --> 0:43:49.200
<v Speaker 4>Think one of the one of the and the broader economy.

0:43:49.920 --> 0:43:52.000
<v Speaker 10>I think there's a lot of regulation that's occurred that

0:43:52.160 --> 0:43:57.160
<v Speaker 10>we're less familiar with because we're not in that environment.

0:43:57.200 --> 0:44:00.560
<v Speaker 10>But if you go across the country in many industries,

0:44:00.920 --> 0:44:04.680
<v Speaker 10>the excitement is around less regulation there. I think it's

0:44:04.719 --> 0:44:07.120
<v Speaker 10>going to be less about us, quite frankly, and more

0:44:07.200 --> 0:44:09.000
<v Speaker 10>about for the broader economy.

0:44:09.160 --> 0:44:11.520
<v Speaker 5>I wonder how much we keep talking about the dollar

0:44:11.600 --> 0:44:13.600
<v Speaker 5>as the backdrop here and how much it's been weakening.

0:44:13.640 --> 0:44:16.560
<v Speaker 5>And I wonder for you, as the head of capital

0:44:16.600 --> 0:44:19.080
<v Speaker 5>market is the co president of a bank that has

0:44:19.160 --> 0:44:22.759
<v Speaker 5>America in its name, how much more difficult it is

0:44:22.840 --> 0:44:25.680
<v Speaker 5>for you to compete globally at a time where there's

0:44:25.719 --> 0:44:30.200
<v Speaker 5>a real question about US policy, about the dollar and

0:44:30.320 --> 0:44:32.680
<v Speaker 5>about what the relationship is going to be.

0:44:32.840 --> 0:44:35.839
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, it's certainly, you know, it's certainly a topic meaning

0:44:35.880 --> 0:44:38.640
<v Speaker 10>the dollar. You know, we're a global business, Yes we are.

0:44:39.120 --> 0:44:40.840
<v Speaker 10>You know, we are Bank of America. We have a

0:44:40.920 --> 0:44:43.680
<v Speaker 10>dominant position in the US. We've grown our you know,

0:44:43.840 --> 0:44:46.279
<v Speaker 10>international business, which I didn't highlight what we're talking about

0:44:46.280 --> 0:44:48.480
<v Speaker 10>areas of growth, but international is a focus for us,

0:44:48.600 --> 0:44:51.239
<v Speaker 10>not expanding beyond where we are, but just being more

0:44:51.320 --> 0:44:53.600
<v Speaker 10>meaningful in the in the regions that we are. And

0:44:53.800 --> 0:44:55.000
<v Speaker 10>you know, we just look at it and say, we

0:44:55.040 --> 0:44:57.759
<v Speaker 10>have global capabilities and you know we can, we can

0:44:57.840 --> 0:45:00.920
<v Speaker 10>transact and you know, where house risk where we need

0:45:01.000 --> 0:45:03.880
<v Speaker 10>to you know, for clients one of the big I

0:45:04.000 --> 0:45:08.799
<v Speaker 10>think misunderstandings or or where it's not thought through enough.

0:45:10.719 --> 0:45:14.799
<v Speaker 10>It's going to take some considerable time for this to occur.

0:45:15.080 --> 0:45:16.680
<v Speaker 10>You know, we're looking at you know, weakness and dollars

0:45:16.719 --> 0:45:19.479
<v Speaker 10>ten percent, fifteen percent versus you know, versus its peak.

0:45:20.800 --> 0:45:25.680
<v Speaker 10>We're still the largest capital markets to invest in.

0:45:27.680 --> 0:45:29.000
<v Speaker 4>And you just have to keep that in mind.

0:45:29.440 --> 0:45:31.640
<v Speaker 2>I want to finish by talking about you. Yeah, you've

0:45:31.680 --> 0:45:33.520
<v Speaker 2>had a pretty ti remit for quite a while.

0:45:33.719 --> 0:45:33.919
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:45:34.000 --> 0:45:36.359
<v Speaker 2>Are you excited about the prospect of stretching your legs

0:45:36.360 --> 0:45:38.680
<v Speaker 2>a little bit having a look at other business lines?

0:45:39.000 --> 0:45:39.200
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

0:45:39.360 --> 0:45:41.520
<v Speaker 10>I mean, you know, I've been in the market's business

0:45:41.600 --> 0:45:44.480
<v Speaker 10>thirty five years in different capacity. But I've always had

0:45:44.600 --> 0:45:46.920
<v Speaker 10>interaction across the firm, whether it's been investment banking or

0:45:46.960 --> 0:45:49.440
<v Speaker 10>corporate banking or whatever it may be. And I think

0:45:49.480 --> 0:45:51.600
<v Speaker 10>if you take a look at you know, these areas

0:45:51.600 --> 0:45:53.640
<v Speaker 10>of where there's Brian talked about organic growth and where

0:45:53.680 --> 0:45:56.680
<v Speaker 10>we can do it, I think there's there's some considerable

0:45:56.719 --> 0:46:00.000
<v Speaker 10>opportunity for us to be more consistent in our delivery.

0:46:00.239 --> 0:46:02.279
<v Speaker 10>You know, we did it in the markets business. Try

0:46:02.280 --> 0:46:04.440
<v Speaker 10>I tried to de emphasize Fick versus equities and think

0:46:04.480 --> 0:46:07.000
<v Speaker 10>about markets and how we how we can deliver for clients.

0:46:07.040 --> 0:46:09.120
<v Speaker 10>And I just view this as an expansion you know

0:46:09.200 --> 0:46:11.800
<v Speaker 10>of that and trying to help everybody bring that to

0:46:11.960 --> 0:46:15.440
<v Speaker 10>fruition because you know, ideas are great, execution is everything.

0:46:15.640 --> 0:46:18.759
<v Speaker 7>Does that mean spending less time with these guys, They're

0:46:18.760 --> 0:46:19.239
<v Speaker 7>going to miss you.

0:46:20.200 --> 0:46:24.760
<v Speaker 10>I'm going to miss it. I've said, I'm a trading

0:46:24.760 --> 0:46:26.680
<v Speaker 10>floor for thirty five years. Yeah, you know, it's a

0:46:26.719 --> 0:46:28.560
<v Speaker 10>great thing. It's been a great experience. It's given me

0:46:28.600 --> 0:46:31.040
<v Speaker 10>a lot of opportunity. We have a lot of talented

0:46:31.080 --> 0:46:33.879
<v Speaker 10>people that you know, as I said in the meeting

0:46:33.920 --> 0:46:35.560
<v Speaker 10>we had earlier in the week, you know, I know

0:46:35.600 --> 0:46:38.400
<v Speaker 10>everybody's saying congratulations. Now the next question is what about me,

0:46:38.680 --> 0:46:40.440
<v Speaker 10>which is for everybody else in the room, what does

0:46:40.480 --> 0:46:42.520
<v Speaker 10>this mean for me? And you know, we're gonna be

0:46:42.520 --> 0:46:44.239
<v Speaker 10>making those decisions over the next couple of weeks. But

0:46:44.320 --> 0:46:47.000
<v Speaker 10>we're pretty excited about it. Team's pretty excited about it,

0:46:47.120 --> 0:46:48.719
<v Speaker 10>and response has been very good.

0:46:49.800 --> 0:46:53.319
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0:46:53.360 --> 0:46:56.640
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