1 00:00:15,430 --> 00:00:21,140 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello. I have a new book coming out. It's 2 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: called The Measure of Everything. How numbers shape us. It's 3 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: a book about a deceptively simple idea. The fate of 4 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,380 Speaker 1: our societies has often belonged to those who understand the 5 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,670 Speaker 1: numbers behind them. It's a story of obsessives and revolutionaries. 6 00:00:38,190 --> 00:00:43,290 Speaker 1: Medieval merchants who helped invent modern capitalism. Scientists who learned 7 00:00:43,330 --> 00:00:47,950 Speaker 1: to predict the spread of disease. pioneers who taught machines 8 00:00:48,030 --> 00:00:53,340 Speaker 1: to think, and dangerous ideologues who twisted data into a 9 00:00:53,420 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: tool of control. Because the story of power is the 10 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 1: story of data. And that's the story I tell in 11 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: The Measure of Everything. The book is published on the 12 00:01:04,580 --> 00:01:08,900 Speaker 1: 25th of March in the UK, Ireland, Australia and much 13 00:01:08,940 --> 00:01:10,770 Speaker 1: of the rest of the world. If you're in the 14 00:01:10,850 --> 00:01:14,470 Speaker 1: US or Canada, your publication date is the 8th of June. 15 00:01:14,950 --> 00:01:17,390 Speaker 1: I'll also be going on a UK book tour from 16 00:01:17,410 --> 00:01:20,270 Speaker 1: the 22nd of March to the 12th of April, and 17 00:01:20,430 --> 00:01:22,630 Speaker 1: I would be delighted to meet you at one of 18 00:01:22,670 --> 00:01:26,290 Speaker 1: the events. You can pre-order the book and get tickets 19 00:01:26,330 --> 00:01:28,700 Speaker 1: for the tour through the links in the show notes. 20 00:01:29,500 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening, and I do hope you enjoy 21 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: the book. Pravda has unearthed a new hero of Soviet science. 22 00:01:42,110 --> 00:01:47,390 Speaker 1: It's 1927. The state newspaper is reporting excitedly from a 23 00:01:47,450 --> 00:01:53,260 Speaker 1: remote experimental farm in what's now Azerbaijan, where a brilliant 24 00:01:53,420 --> 00:01:59,220 Speaker 1: young agronomist, the son of a peasant, has, apparently, solved 25 00:01:59,300 --> 00:02:06,090 Speaker 1: the problem of fertilizing the fields without fertilizers. Big, if true. 26 00:02:07,980 --> 00:02:12,660 Speaker 1: Who is this ingenious young man from humble origins? This 27 00:02:13,220 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: outdoor scientist? This barefoot professor? His name is Trofim Lysenko. 28 00:02:21,220 --> 00:02:27,950 Speaker 1: Pravda describes him as skinny, with prominent cheekbones, stingy with 29 00:02:28,010 --> 00:02:33,210 Speaker 1: words and unremarkable in features. A sullen look. They don't 30 00:02:33,250 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: believe in bigging up their heroes, do they? This Lysenko 31 00:02:37,920 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: gives one the sensation of a toothache. God grant him health, 32 00:02:42,940 --> 00:02:50,810 Speaker 1: he is of doleful appearance. Doleful or not, Lysenko has, apparently, 33 00:02:51,690 --> 00:02:58,150 Speaker 1: turned the barren fields of the Transcaucasus green in winter. Again, 34 00:02:58,970 --> 00:03:05,060 Speaker 1: big if true. Ten years into the Bolshevik Revolution... the 35 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,850 Speaker 1: Soviet Union teeters constantly on the brink of famine. But 36 00:03:10,010 --> 00:03:13,770 Speaker 1: specialists in academia don't seem focused on the plight of 37 00:03:13,810 --> 00:03:20,420 Speaker 1: the peasant. Take the internationally renowned geneticist Nikolai Vavilov, director 38 00:03:20,460 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 1: of the prestigious Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural Sciences. He 39 00:03:27,500 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: seems to spend all his time swanning off to foreign 40 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: conferences and adding to his seed collections. the agricultural commissar 41 00:03:37,430 --> 00:03:43,460 Speaker 1: tells the academics to shape up. Yields must double. Maybe 42 00:03:43,540 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: this toothache of a man, this peasant's son Lysenko, has 43 00:03:49,020 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: got the answers. Vavilov reads the article in Pravda and 44 00:03:54,800 --> 00:04:00,020 Speaker 1: sends an assistant to investigate. Lysenko, the assistant reports back, 45 00:04:00,620 --> 00:04:09,410 Speaker 1: is undoubtedly talented, but also intelligent. uneducated and extremely egotistical. Still, 46 00:04:10,230 --> 00:04:14,870 Speaker 1: the agricultural commissar clearly likes him. So when Vavilov chairs 47 00:04:14,950 --> 00:04:20,380 Speaker 1: a conference to launch Stalin's five-year agricultural plan, it feels 48 00:04:20,500 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: politically wise to let Lysenko give a talk. The conference 49 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: slogan is Spread the achievements of science among the masses. 50 00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:35,510 Speaker 1: Lysenko talks about vernalisation. the idea of chilling seeds of 51 00:04:35,590 --> 00:04:41,630 Speaker 1: winter varieties before planting them in spring. It's an old idea. 52 00:04:42,210 --> 00:04:46,350 Speaker 1: There's a literature on it, which Lysenko clearly hasn't read. 53 00:04:48,390 --> 00:04:52,500 Speaker 1: When asked what he makes of Lysenko's work, one academic replies, 54 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: a little too honestly, the results obtained by Comrade Lysenko 55 00:04:57,460 --> 00:05:01,620 Speaker 1: do not represent anything new in principle. They are not 56 00:05:02,150 --> 00:05:11,690 Speaker 1: a scientific discovery. Lysenko is furious. These sneering, supercilious academics 57 00:05:11,850 --> 00:05:15,130 Speaker 1: in their ivory towers, what do they know about hard 58 00:05:15,190 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: work and hunger? Stalin agrees. He gives a speech pointedly 59 00:05:21,840 --> 00:05:29,230 Speaker 1: saying that practice is better than theory. In 1933, a 60 00:05:29,730 --> 00:05:33,580 Speaker 1: British biologist visits the Soviet Union to see his friend 61 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:38,740 Speaker 1: Nikolai Vavilov. He also has a conversation with Trofim Lysenko 62 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:44,540 Speaker 1: and quickly concludes that Lysenko is blazingly ignorant of the 63 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:51,290 Speaker 1: elementary principles of both plant physiology and genetics. He tells 64 00:05:51,330 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: Vavilov later, it was like discussing the differential calculus with 65 00:05:56,180 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: a man who did not know his 12 times table. 66 00:06:00,260 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: Vavilov smiles wearily. Lysenko is an angry species, he tells 67 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:12,710 Speaker 1: his British guest. But all progress in the world has 68 00:06:12,750 --> 00:06:18,130 Speaker 1: been made by angry men. So let him go on working. 69 00:06:18,970 --> 00:06:25,450 Speaker 1: He does no harm. and may someday do good. Oh, 70 00:06:25,930 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: Comrade Vavilov, if only you knew. I'm Tim Harford, and 71 00:06:32,100 --> 00:07:02,700 Speaker 1: you're listening to Cautionary Tales. Fourteen-year-old Norm Boy Borlaug is 72 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: coming to the end of his education. Eighth grade is 73 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:10,020 Speaker 1: all you need in Iowa farming country in the 1920s. 74 00:07:11,820 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: Norm Boy's already been helping out for years, feeding the chickens, 75 00:07:15,980 --> 00:07:20,260 Speaker 1: hauling the hay, splitting the firewood. At harvest time, stripping 76 00:07:20,300 --> 00:07:24,110 Speaker 1: the husks off corn until his arms are raw and bleeding. 77 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,460 Speaker 1: Norm Boy's father looks forward to the day his son 78 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: can finally stop traipsing the mile and a half to 79 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,110 Speaker 1: school and back and work on the farm full time. 80 00:07:36,450 --> 00:07:41,910 Speaker 1: But then, a bombshell. Norm's teacher tells the family that 81 00:07:42,190 --> 00:07:46,190 Speaker 1: he should go to high school. He's got grit, she says. 82 00:07:47,230 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: The nearest high school is in a town 14 miles away, 83 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,450 Speaker 1: too far to walk every day. Not only will the 84 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,850 Speaker 1: Borlaugs lose their only son's labour on the farm, they'll 85 00:07:58,890 --> 00:08:01,450 Speaker 1: have to pay for him to lodge somewhere during the week. 86 00:08:02,390 --> 00:08:07,670 Speaker 1: They're tempted to say no, but it's awkward. Norm's teacher 87 00:08:08,130 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: is also his cousin. Then Grandad weighs in. Education puts 88 00:08:15,020 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: power into a man, Norm boy, he says. If you've 89 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:24,510 Speaker 1: got a good education, no one can take that from you. OK, 90 00:08:24,690 --> 00:08:30,970 Speaker 1: the Borlaug sigh. Norm can go to high school. At 91 00:08:31,030 --> 00:08:34,740 Speaker 1: high school, there's a new teacher, fresh from college. He 92 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:40,100 Speaker 1: wants the students to learn about fertiliser. Norm is unimpressed. 93 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: His dad's never seen the need for fertiliser. Aren't Iowa's 94 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:49,770 Speaker 1: soils famously fertile already? But the teacher has them divide 95 00:08:49,810 --> 00:08:54,210 Speaker 1: a field carefully into plots... and add different amounts of 96 00:08:54,290 --> 00:09:00,650 Speaker 1: fertiliser to each. At harvest time, Norm is amazed. The 97 00:09:00,730 --> 00:09:06,630 Speaker 1: best fertilised plot is yielding 50 bushels of corn per acre, 98 00:09:07,270 --> 00:09:11,370 Speaker 1: twice as much as the unfertilised control plot, twice as 99 00:09:11,430 --> 00:09:15,830 Speaker 1: much as they get on the Borlaug family farm. Norm 100 00:09:16,030 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: draws two lessons. Fertiliser works... And controlled experiments are how 101 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:31,190 Speaker 1: you find out what works. The year is 1929. On 102 00:09:31,250 --> 00:09:35,510 Speaker 1: the other side of the world, Nikolai Vavilov is chairing 103 00:09:35,630 --> 00:09:41,490 Speaker 1: his big conference. Spread the achievements of science among the masses. 104 00:09:42,930 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: Stalin issues an ultimatum. Agricultural research... has to speed up. 105 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,300 Speaker 1: The academics say they need 10 or 12 years to 106 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,270 Speaker 1: breed improved varieties of crop. He wants them to do 107 00:09:58,330 --> 00:10:03,770 Speaker 1: it in four or five years. It's impossible, the scientists say. 108 00:10:04,180 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: It takes time to do experiments. You have to grow 109 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,730 Speaker 1: lots of varieties, see which one are best, crossbreed them, 110 00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:15,210 Speaker 1: grow them again next year, and so on. There's no shortcut. 111 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: Or is there? Trofim Lysenko announces that he's produced an 112 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:26,340 Speaker 1: improved variety of wheat in just two and a half years. 113 00:10:27,590 --> 00:10:31,550 Speaker 1: How has he done it so quickly? Lysenko didn't need 114 00:10:31,590 --> 00:10:34,670 Speaker 1: to bother with any of the tedious experiments that the 115 00:10:34,850 --> 00:10:39,530 Speaker 1: academic scientists insist on. All he needed was some flowerpots 116 00:10:39,610 --> 00:10:43,590 Speaker 1: in the corner of a greenhouse. His theory of stages 117 00:10:43,710 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: in plant development allowed him to choose which varieties of 118 00:10:47,900 --> 00:10:50,620 Speaker 1: wheat to cross with each other and predict in advance 119 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:54,180 Speaker 1: what results he would get. But his claims of an 120 00:10:54,440 --> 00:11:00,080 Speaker 1: improved variety rest on one plant in a flowerpot. Wouldn't 121 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:04,020 Speaker 1: it be wise to test it in actual fields before 122 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:08,390 Speaker 1: rolling it out to the peasants? Of course not, says Lysenko. 123 00:11:09,090 --> 00:11:13,310 Speaker 1: People are hungry right now. Do we have the right 124 00:11:13,430 --> 00:11:17,210 Speaker 1: to lose two or three years in preliminary testing at 125 00:11:17,410 --> 00:11:21,150 Speaker 1: several breeding stations? No, we don't have the right to 126 00:11:21,190 --> 00:11:25,190 Speaker 1: lose a single year. Lysenko has now been given his 127 00:11:25,310 --> 00:11:30,490 Speaker 1: own academic journal, the Journal of Vernalization, a word which 128 00:11:30,530 --> 00:11:35,620 Speaker 1: he's expanded far beyond its original definition. He's now using 129 00:11:35,660 --> 00:11:39,060 Speaker 1: it to mean just what he chooses it to mean. 130 00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: One analysis of his muddled writing picks out at least 131 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: seven distinct senses. Lysenko urges peasants to soak their seeds 132 00:11:50,740 --> 00:11:55,410 Speaker 1: before planting. That's not a new idea, say the academics. 133 00:11:56,030 --> 00:11:58,750 Speaker 1: It can help, but it can also cause more trouble 134 00:11:58,790 --> 00:12:04,650 Speaker 1: than it's worth. In a speech in 1935, Lysenko attacks 135 00:12:04,750 --> 00:12:11,110 Speaker 1: his critics. Comrades, the class enemy whispers into the peasants' ears, 136 00:12:11,610 --> 00:12:15,380 Speaker 1: don't soak the seeds, it will ruin them. A class 137 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,180 Speaker 1: enemy is always an enemy, whether he is a scientist 138 00:12:18,420 --> 00:12:26,380 Speaker 1: or not. A Shout comes from the audience. Bravo, comrade Lysenko! Bravo! 139 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:35,530 Speaker 1: It's Stalin. Lysenko suggests another new strategy to improve potato 140 00:12:35,570 --> 00:12:39,170 Speaker 1: crops in the south of the country. Plant in summer. 141 00:12:39,170 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: 500 farms are told to follow Lysenko's advice and fill 142 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 1: in a questionnaire about how it goes. They all know 143 00:12:47,900 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: that Lysenko is Stalin's protégé. they must feel pressure to 144 00:12:52,740 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: report that it went well. Still, Lysenko publishes results from 145 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: just 50 questionnaires. He says many farms had a successful experience, 146 00:13:05,560 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: which fully proves the possibility of doubling yields. This is, 147 00:13:11,500 --> 00:13:17,340 Speaker 1: of course, ridiculous. Try any different technique in 500 places 148 00:13:17,450 --> 00:13:21,740 Speaker 1: and and you'll likely have some successes by random chance. 149 00:13:22,460 --> 00:13:26,820 Speaker 1: You can't then just ignore the failures. But that's what 150 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: Lysenko did. In his view, the successes proved that success 151 00:13:31,680 --> 00:13:35,330 Speaker 1: was possible, so the farms that failed must have done 152 00:13:35,390 --> 00:13:41,070 Speaker 1: something wrong. They must be lazy, or incompetent, or wreckers. 153 00:13:42,770 --> 00:13:49,790 Speaker 1: On it went. Lysenko announced one big agricultural idea after another, 154 00:13:50,170 --> 00:13:55,570 Speaker 1: based on confusing theories or inadequate experiments. There'd be headlines 155 00:13:55,650 --> 00:13:58,550 Speaker 1: in Pravda about what a great success it had been, 156 00:13:59,110 --> 00:14:03,660 Speaker 1: and there'd be no obvious improvement in the actual availability 157 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:09,740 Speaker 1: of food. Lysenko denounced his critics as bourgeois class enemies. 158 00:14:10,700 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 1: Stalin had them dismissed. Imprisoned or shot. Nikolai Vavilov pleaded 159 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:26,020 Speaker 1: for an end to the irresponsible name-calling. He even secured 160 00:14:26,060 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: a personal meeting with Stalin. It did not go well. So, 161 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: said Stalin... You are the Vavilov who fiddles with flowers 162 00:14:37,180 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: and other botanical nonsense instead of helping agriculture, as is 163 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:48,380 Speaker 1: done by academician Lysenko. Vavilov began to suspect that his 164 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:53,890 Speaker 1: days were numbered. In 1940, on a field trip to 165 00:14:53,930 --> 00:14:57,530 Speaker 1: a wheat farm, he was bundled into a car by 166 00:14:57,610 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: Stalin's secret police. Portionary Tales will be back after the break. 167 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:18,350 Speaker 1: Norman Borlaug's cousin was right. He had grit. Borlaug went 168 00:15:18,470 --> 00:15:22,110 Speaker 1: on from high school to the University of Minnesota. He 169 00:15:22,250 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: earned a PhD in plant pathology and genetics... In 1944, 170 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,540 Speaker 1: he was working for DuPont when his old supervisor recommended 171 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: him for a job with the Rockefeller Foundation. They were 172 00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: setting up a new agricultural program in Mexico where crops 173 00:15:39,740 --> 00:15:43,940 Speaker 1: of wheat were being devastated by a fungal disease called rust. 174 00:15:45,580 --> 00:15:49,190 Speaker 1: Borlaug's colleagues said he'd be mad to leave DuPont. He 175 00:15:49,220 --> 00:15:53,530 Speaker 1: had a good salary, great career prospects. Why throw all 176 00:15:53,570 --> 00:15:57,350 Speaker 1: that away when DuPont Who knew what he'd find in Mexico? 177 00:15:58,940 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 1: But Borlaug liked the idea of helping agriculture. He took 178 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: the job. What he found in Mexico was 160 acres 179 00:16:09,300 --> 00:16:15,010 Speaker 1: of tangled scrub and two bulldozers that didn't work. Borlaug 180 00:16:15,350 --> 00:16:19,230 Speaker 1: hired a village mechanic who cannibalised the parts to create 181 00:16:19,670 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: one working bulldozer. He levelled the land. and dug water channels. 182 00:16:26,850 --> 00:16:30,940 Speaker 1: At harvest time, he roamed the fields of nearby farms, 183 00:16:31,340 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: collecting seeds from every different type of wheat he could find, 184 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: over 8,000. He was shocked by the state of many 185 00:16:40,580 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: Mexican farms. The crops were diseased. People were hungry. Borlaug 186 00:16:47,820 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: had now acquired two assistants. Freshly graduated from Agricultural College... 187 00:16:53,710 --> 00:16:57,650 Speaker 1: They turned up for work in smart suits and shiny shoes. 188 00:16:58,450 --> 00:17:01,470 Speaker 1: Borlaug chuckled. How do you think we're going to plant 189 00:17:01,510 --> 00:17:06,250 Speaker 1: these seeds? We have no tractor, not even an ox. 190 00:17:07,570 --> 00:17:11,390 Speaker 1: Borlaug harnessed himself to the plough and began to heave 191 00:17:11,430 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: it up and down the field. The graduates protested. Dr Borlaug, 192 00:17:18,120 --> 00:17:22,820 Speaker 1: we don't do these things. Borlaug said... If we don't 193 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: do things ourselves, how can we advise anyone? The task 194 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:35,580 Speaker 1: of breeding better wheat would take years. They'd have to 195 00:17:35,620 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 1: see which of these seeds grew best, crossbreed them, grow 196 00:17:39,940 --> 00:17:44,660 Speaker 1: them again next year and so on. There was no shortcut. 197 00:17:46,060 --> 00:17:51,630 Speaker 1: Or was there? Borlaug had an idea. The Rockefeller Foundation 198 00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:55,890 Speaker 1: was based in Mexico City, but northwest Mexico had a 199 00:17:55,910 --> 00:18:00,900 Speaker 1: different climate and growing season. What if he established a 200 00:18:01,060 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: second base there? He could fit two growing seasons in 201 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:10,740 Speaker 1: one year, and run his experiments twice as fast. His 202 00:18:10,780 --> 00:18:14,980 Speaker 1: boss said no. The foundation didn't have permission to work 203 00:18:15,020 --> 00:18:18,980 Speaker 1: in the northwest, and anyway, The agronomy textbooks say you're 204 00:18:19,020 --> 00:18:23,350 Speaker 1: supposed to develop new crop varieties near to where farmers 205 00:18:23,390 --> 00:18:27,890 Speaker 1: will grow them. Borlaug knew that. He'd read the textbooks. 206 00:18:28,950 --> 00:18:33,610 Speaker 1: But why not take a risk? People are hungry right now. 207 00:18:34,830 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: The boss relented, but made clear to Borlaug that the 208 00:18:39,020 --> 00:18:47,630 Speaker 1: Foundation couldn't help. He'd be on his own. In northwest Mexico, 209 00:18:47,890 --> 00:18:51,590 Speaker 1: Borlaug persuaded a local research facility to let him take 210 00:18:51,790 --> 00:18:56,070 Speaker 1: over an abandoned research station. The place was a mess. 211 00:18:57,060 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 1: Fields full of weeds, buildings with shattered windows, no sanitation. 212 00:19:03,620 --> 00:19:07,780 Speaker 1: It would have to do. Borlaug swept dead rats from 213 00:19:07,820 --> 00:19:10,570 Speaker 1: the floor to make a place to sleep. He made 214 00:19:10,590 --> 00:19:13,970 Speaker 1: a fire from corn husks and heated a can of beans. 215 00:19:14,950 --> 00:19:21,730 Speaker 1: At night... Live rats scurried around. He began to hoe 216 00:19:21,910 --> 00:19:31,610 Speaker 1: the field. After a month of interrogation by the Soviet 217 00:19:31,690 --> 00:19:36,870 Speaker 1: secret police, Nikolai Vavilov confessed to the slippery crime of 218 00:19:37,370 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: being a wrecker. He was sentenced to 20 years' hard labour. 219 00:19:44,390 --> 00:19:48,430 Speaker 1: His friends in other countries tried to help. Scientists in 220 00:19:48,490 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: Britain elected him to membership of the Royal Society, and 221 00:19:52,460 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: Winston Churchill, by now a wartime ally, appealed personally to 222 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:03,570 Speaker 1: Stalin to set Velazquez free. But Vavilov died in prison 223 00:20:04,330 --> 00:20:12,830 Speaker 1: from starvation. Trofim Lysenko now had Vavilov's old job as 224 00:20:12,870 --> 00:20:19,140 Speaker 1: director of the Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural Sciences. The 225 00:20:19,180 --> 00:20:24,780 Speaker 1: big ideas kept coming. Lysenko urged farmers to warm seed 226 00:20:24,860 --> 00:20:31,060 Speaker 1: before planting it. Hadn't he previously advocated chilling seed before 227 00:20:31,100 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: planting it? Perhaps it wasn't wise to ask too many questions. 228 00:20:39,780 --> 00:20:44,750 Speaker 1: Lysenko had developed ambitions beyond agriculture. He decided that the 229 00:20:44,830 --> 00:20:50,190 Speaker 1: entire field of genetics was bourgeois. Take the work of 230 00:20:50,350 --> 00:20:55,090 Speaker 1: Gregor Mendel, the Austrian monk who found that peas inherit 231 00:20:55,210 --> 00:21:00,530 Speaker 1: traits in predictable patterns. Or Thomas Hunt Morgan, the American 232 00:21:00,570 --> 00:21:06,570 Speaker 1: biologist who proved that genes were located on chromosomes. Lysenko 233 00:21:06,790 --> 00:21:10,670 Speaker 1: mocked the idea that there were little pieces of heredity. 234 00:21:11,510 --> 00:21:14,330 Speaker 1: If he wanted to insult you, he'd call you a 235 00:21:14,470 --> 00:21:19,150 Speaker 1: Mendelist Morganist. There was even a popular song... Let me 236 00:21:19,310 --> 00:21:24,250 Speaker 1: sing of the eternal glory of Academician Lysenko. He protects 237 00:21:24,330 --> 00:21:30,270 Speaker 1: us from being duped by Mendelist Morganists. If Lysenko really 238 00:21:30,310 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 1: wanted to insult you, he'd call you a Weissmanist Mendelist Morganist. 239 00:21:36,460 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: The German biologist August Weissman had shown that changes during 240 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,220 Speaker 1: an organism's lifetime tend not to be passed on to 241 00:21:45,260 --> 00:21:49,730 Speaker 1: its offspring. Suppose you cut the tail off a mouse, 242 00:21:49,870 --> 00:21:54,330 Speaker 1: for example. Will the mouse's babies be born without tails? 243 00:21:55,020 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 1: Obviously not. Well, I say obvious, but Weissman actually did 244 00:22:01,740 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: this experiment. After five generations, the baby mice were still 245 00:22:07,100 --> 00:22:14,450 Speaker 1: being born with tails as long as ever. Lysenko deplored Weissmanism. 246 00:22:15,230 --> 00:22:17,540 Speaker 1: He believed that if he did something that made a 247 00:22:17,620 --> 00:22:21,740 Speaker 1: plant grow better, chilling the seed or maybe warming it, 248 00:22:22,580 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 1: then the plant would pass on its propensity for stronger 249 00:22:26,500 --> 00:22:30,650 Speaker 1: growth to the next generation. He said you could shatter 250 00:22:30,710 --> 00:22:33,790 Speaker 1: the heredity of plants and get them to behave in 251 00:22:33,910 --> 00:22:37,810 Speaker 1: new ways. You could even turn them into different species, 252 00:22:38,070 --> 00:22:42,330 Speaker 1: he said. In the body of a wheat plant organism, 253 00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:47,870 Speaker 1: under the influence of appropriate conditions of life, granules of 254 00:22:47,950 --> 00:22:53,660 Speaker 1: a rye body are born. Yes, you could turn wheat 255 00:22:54,290 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: into rye. You see, Lysenko explained, he'd once heard of 256 00:22:59,380 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: rye seeds being found in harvested wheat. You could turn 257 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:09,100 Speaker 1: hornbeams into hazelnut trees. You could even turn rabbits … 258 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 1: into chickens. After the Second World War, two foreign biologists 259 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 1: visited Russia and met Lysenko. Sometimes, recalled one, he appears 260 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:31,360 Speaker 1: ignorant of scientific facts and principles. Sometimes he misunderstands them. 261 00:23:32,220 --> 00:23:36,980 Speaker 1: Sometimes he counters them with bare assertions of his own beliefs. 262 00:23:38,550 --> 00:23:43,870 Speaker 1: They listened to Lysenko describe his understanding of sexual reproduction 263 00:23:44,430 --> 00:23:50,550 Speaker 1: as mutual digestion. The egg digests the sperm, and at 264 00:23:50,590 --> 00:23:56,670 Speaker 1: the same time, the sperm digests the egg. Outside the meeting, 265 00:23:57,450 --> 00:24:00,690 Speaker 1: the two foreigners looked at each other, put their hands 266 00:24:00,750 --> 00:24:06,630 Speaker 1: on each other's shoulders, and burst out laughing. This was, however... 267 00:24:07,070 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 1: no laughing matter for actual biologists in the Soviet Union. 268 00:24:12,020 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: They were clearly deeply embarrassed, said one foreign guest. But 269 00:24:17,620 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: it wasn't clear to them whether Stalin's support for Lysenko 270 00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:27,540 Speaker 1: in agriculture extended across the whole field of biology. Matters 271 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 1: came to a head at a conference in 1948. Lysenko's 272 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:40,460 Speaker 1: acolytes gave impassioned speeches... Weissmanist, Mendelist, Morganist genetics is a 273 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: spawn of bourgeois society. They demanded a complete rout of 274 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:53,460 Speaker 1: the Mendelist-Morganists. A few participants were brave enough to point 275 00:24:53,740 --> 00:25:00,190 Speaker 1: out the obvious. The transformation of animals and plants, observed one, 276 00:25:01,310 --> 00:25:04,910 Speaker 1: cannot be achieved merely as a result of our wish 277 00:25:04,930 --> 00:25:09,540 Speaker 1: to Another wanted to know why everyone was attacking Mendel. 278 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 1: All he did was make some observations about peas. Then 279 00:25:16,380 --> 00:25:23,500 Speaker 1: Lysenko gave his presentation. The question is asked, what is 280 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 1: the attitude of the Central Committee of the Party? I answer, 281 00:25:28,460 --> 00:25:31,450 Speaker 1: the Central Committee of the Party has examined my report 282 00:25:31,850 --> 00:25:40,130 Speaker 1: and approved it. Stalin was doubling down on Lysenko. Historians 283 00:25:40,230 --> 00:25:44,070 Speaker 1: are still puzzled about why, but the upshot was clear. 284 00:25:44,630 --> 00:25:52,140 Speaker 1: Biology textbooks were rewritten, institutes dissolved, researchers sacked. Work on 285 00:25:52,180 --> 00:25:56,100 Speaker 1: genetics would no longer be allowed in the Soviet Union. 286 00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:04,870 Speaker 1: Buenos dias, senor. Norman Borlaug looked up from his hoeing. 287 00:26:05,870 --> 00:26:09,230 Speaker 1: You wouldn't guess that Borlaug had a PhD. He looked 288 00:26:09,250 --> 00:26:13,150 Speaker 1: like a madman, a lone gringo in the boondocks in 289 00:26:13,450 --> 00:26:18,870 Speaker 1: northwest Mexico, digging an abandoned field. Borlaug saw a man 290 00:26:18,950 --> 00:26:23,770 Speaker 1: wearing a sombrero, his Sunday best, and dusty work boots. 291 00:26:25,110 --> 00:26:29,830 Speaker 1: The man introduced himself. I live there, he pointed to 292 00:26:29,870 --> 00:26:33,230 Speaker 1: a farm across the road. What is it you do here? 293 00:26:34,670 --> 00:26:38,990 Speaker 1: Why do you work on the Lord's Day? Borlaug explained. 294 00:26:39,820 --> 00:26:44,020 Speaker 1: He was trying to breed wheat with greater resistance to disease. 295 00:26:45,060 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 1: The foundation that employed him didn't have permission to work 296 00:26:48,140 --> 00:26:51,300 Speaker 1: in this part of the country, but hunger wouldn't wait. 297 00:26:52,230 --> 00:26:55,950 Speaker 1: So he was here on his own, working every hour 298 00:26:55,990 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: he could. I see, said the man. Would you like 299 00:27:02,060 --> 00:27:07,850 Speaker 1: to borrow my tractor? Later, as Borlaug drove the tractor, 300 00:27:08,430 --> 00:27:12,310 Speaker 1: a Chevrolet pulled into the driveway of the old research station. 301 00:27:13,570 --> 00:27:17,940 Speaker 1: A middle-aged woman got out. Another gringo. You must be 302 00:27:17,980 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: the crazy American I've been hearing about. I'm heading to 303 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:28,420 Speaker 1: town for groceries. Care to ride along? Cautionary Tales will 304 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:41,300 Speaker 1: be back in a moment. Norman Borlaug now had help 305 00:27:41,500 --> 00:27:45,890 Speaker 1: in northwest Mexico from friendly neighbors, a farmer with a tractor, 306 00:27:46,250 --> 00:27:50,710 Speaker 1: and a middle-aged widow originally from Connecticut. She invited him 307 00:27:50,810 --> 00:27:54,530 Speaker 1: over for meals and showers, did his laundry, and made 308 00:27:54,570 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 1: him practice his Spanish. She kept me sane, Borlaug later recalled. 309 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,980 Speaker 1: I couldn't have survived without her. Still, life was hard. 310 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,100 Speaker 1: Borlaug was spending half of every year away from his 311 00:28:10,180 --> 00:28:13,460 Speaker 1: wife and young children who stayed at home in Mexico City. 312 00:28:14,660 --> 00:28:18,670 Speaker 1: The twice-yearly journey between Mexico City and the Northwest was 313 00:28:18,930 --> 00:28:24,090 Speaker 1: arduous too. At first, Borlaug tried crossing into the States 314 00:28:24,270 --> 00:28:27,830 Speaker 1: to drive through Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, but he'd 315 00:28:27,910 --> 00:28:32,330 Speaker 1: reckoned without U.S. customs. Why was he trying to import 316 00:28:32,390 --> 00:28:37,650 Speaker 1: a threshing machine and sacks for seed? I'm not importing them, 317 00:28:38,030 --> 00:28:41,460 Speaker 1: Borlaug protested. They'll be back in Mexico in a couple 318 00:28:41,470 --> 00:28:47,220 Speaker 1: of days. The bureaucracy was such a hassle, Borlaug never 319 00:28:47,260 --> 00:28:52,900 Speaker 1: tried it again. That left the route through Mexico, where 320 00:28:53,020 --> 00:28:58,410 Speaker 1: paved roads didn't always yet exist, or bridges. When it rained, 321 00:28:58,870 --> 00:29:00,950 Speaker 1: you could only guess if it was safe to ford 322 00:29:00,990 --> 00:29:05,730 Speaker 1: the river. One time, Borlaug misjudged how quickly the water 323 00:29:05,770 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: was rising. The engine stalled. Water was spurting in through 324 00:29:10,990 --> 00:29:15,820 Speaker 1: cracks around the door. Borlaug could see a road-building camp 325 00:29:15,900 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: on the far bank, with machinery that might be able 326 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 1: to tow them out. He left his colleague in the 327 00:29:21,460 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 1: pickup and tried to wade across. One foot slipped, and 328 00:29:25,740 --> 00:29:31,330 Speaker 1: I went tumbling. In that powerful tide, there was no 329 00:29:31,370 --> 00:29:37,630 Speaker 1: chance of swimming. By pure good fortune, the current dumped 330 00:29:37,710 --> 00:29:42,190 Speaker 1: Borlaug on the far bank. He persuaded the road builders 331 00:29:42,290 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 1: to drive their machine into the river, where Borlaug's colleague 332 00:29:46,300 --> 00:29:50,630 Speaker 1: was now clinging desperately to the pickup's roof. He managed 333 00:29:50,690 --> 00:29:55,100 Speaker 1: to attach the winch. The old Ford looked like some 334 00:29:55,490 --> 00:30:00,700 Speaker 1: sea creature being yanked from its natural habitat, brown fluids 335 00:30:01,100 --> 00:30:12,090 Speaker 1: spurted from every pore. Then there were the birds. It's 336 00:30:12,150 --> 00:30:16,260 Speaker 1: no use growing improved kinds of seed if the birds 337 00:30:16,460 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 1: eat the seed before you can collect it. Borlaug hired 338 00:30:20,140 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 1: young boys to chase the birds away for five pesos 339 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:29,660 Speaker 1: a week. Most were shy, but one walked boldly up 340 00:30:29,700 --> 00:30:35,310 Speaker 1: to him. Mi nombre es Reyes Vega. He had bright eyes, 341 00:30:35,750 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 1: Borlaug thought. What a shame his family needed him to 342 00:30:39,450 --> 00:30:43,690 Speaker 1: earn pennies chasing birds instead of sending him to school. 343 00:30:48,650 --> 00:30:53,550 Speaker 1: Breeding better wheat was hit and miss. One variety might 344 00:30:53,730 --> 00:30:58,060 Speaker 1: resist rust, the fungal disease, but its grain made bad bread. 345 00:30:58,940 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 1: Another might make good bread but fall over in the wind. 346 00:31:03,690 --> 00:31:07,830 Speaker 1: All you could do was cross-pollinate varieties with different traits 347 00:31:07,870 --> 00:31:11,290 Speaker 1: you wanted and hope that the genes would shuffle in 348 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: such a way that one of the cross-breeds combined those traits. 349 00:31:16,300 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: The cross-pollination was intricate, painstaking work. Borlaug sat on a 350 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,340 Speaker 1: stool in the field, carefully slicing into the wheat's floret 351 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 1: with a sharp, hooked knife and removing the tiny sacks 352 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 1: of pollen one by one with tweezers. What are you doing? 353 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,740 Speaker 1: Borlaug looked up from his tweezers. It was Reyes Vega, 354 00:31:42,900 --> 00:31:48,150 Speaker 1: the bird-scaring boy. Borlaug explained in Spanish as best he could. 355 00:31:49,890 --> 00:31:54,630 Speaker 1: Can I try? If Reyes Vega had asked that question 356 00:31:54,690 --> 00:31:58,030 Speaker 1: of anyone else with a PhD, he might have been 357 00:31:58,100 --> 00:32:02,150 Speaker 1: told with an indulgent smile, that it was highly skilled 358 00:32:02,210 --> 00:32:07,910 Speaker 1: work that needed special training. Borlaug shrugged and said, sure, 359 00:32:08,590 --> 00:32:14,310 Speaker 1: why not? Reyes-Vega was soon wielding the tools more adeptly 360 00:32:14,350 --> 00:32:20,990 Speaker 1: than Borlaug himself. Later, Reyes-Vega said, wouldn't it be quicker 361 00:32:21,890 --> 00:32:25,380 Speaker 1: if you did it like this? The boys showed Borlaug 362 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,100 Speaker 1: how you could cut open the wheat so all the 363 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,480 Speaker 1: tiny pollen sacks could be pulled out with a single motion. 364 00:32:34,970 --> 00:32:40,810 Speaker 1: Borlaug was amazed. He later said, Reyes-Weiger's discovery saved us 365 00:32:41,270 --> 00:32:52,900 Speaker 1: man-years of effort. By 1951, after six years but 12 366 00:32:52,900 --> 00:32:57,810 Speaker 1: growing seasons, Borlaug's work was... was paying off. With the 367 00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:03,470 Speaker 1: right amount of fertiliser, his new varieties of wheat were doubling, trebling, 368 00:33:03,790 --> 00:33:10,060 Speaker 1: quadrupling yields of grain. When Borlaug called at one impoverished 369 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,900 Speaker 1: farm to ask how the harvest had gone, the farmer 370 00:33:13,940 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 1: ran up to him and wrapped him in a bear hug, 371 00:33:17,300 --> 00:33:23,030 Speaker 1: tears rolling down his cheeks. This year, the man explained, 372 00:33:24,170 --> 00:33:29,730 Speaker 1: My family have enough to eat. But the work wasn't finished. 373 00:33:30,730 --> 00:33:34,380 Speaker 1: Little specks of red and orange began to dot the 374 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:39,240 Speaker 1: leaves of Borlaug's new wheats. A new strain of rust. 375 00:33:40,020 --> 00:33:44,980 Speaker 1: He'd have to step up his experiments, do thousands more cross-pollinations, 376 00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: shuffle the genes yet again, and hope. In the Soviet 377 00:33:55,260 --> 00:34:00,910 Speaker 1: Union in the 1950s, no biologist dared to work openly 378 00:34:01,010 --> 00:34:04,470 Speaker 1: on genetics. If there was any risk that their research 379 00:34:04,530 --> 00:34:09,750 Speaker 1: might get them accused of Weissmannism, Mendelism, Morganism, they disguised 380 00:34:09,810 --> 00:34:15,670 Speaker 1: it in journals of chemistry, physics or maths. Trofim Lysenko 381 00:34:16,170 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 1: might be the country's top authority on biology, but he 382 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:26,130 Speaker 1: still didn't grasp basic principles of science. An account of 383 00:34:26,170 --> 00:34:29,810 Speaker 1: a visit to his experimental farm has him showing off 384 00:34:29,850 --> 00:34:32,990 Speaker 1: a plot where crops were growing well with a new 385 00:34:33,030 --> 00:34:36,990 Speaker 1: mix of fertilizer he'd come up with. The visitor asked 386 00:34:37,010 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: to see other plots, where the same seeds were being 387 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:45,860 Speaker 1: grown with different kinds of fertilizer. Lysenko frowned. There were 388 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 1: no such plots. Then the visitor noticed a field where 389 00:34:50,100 --> 00:34:53,810 Speaker 1: crops were growing poorly. But a sign said the new 390 00:34:53,850 --> 00:34:58,010 Speaker 1: mix of fertilizer had been applied. Lysenko explained that the 391 00:34:58,090 --> 00:35:01,650 Speaker 1: worker who applied the fertilizer must have done it wrong. 392 00:35:03,830 --> 00:35:09,140 Speaker 1: By now, Stalin was no longer around. An academic journal 393 00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:13,800 Speaker 1: took the risk of publishing an article that criticized Lysenko. 394 00:35:14,720 --> 00:35:19,180 Speaker 1: The government promptly fired its editors for breaching the rules 395 00:35:19,240 --> 00:35:23,820 Speaker 1: of etiquette and good order. why were the new leaders 396 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:28,960 Speaker 1: still so unwilling to open discussion of ideas in biology? 397 00:35:30,780 --> 00:35:37,070 Speaker 1: The historian David Juravsky blames cognitive dissonance. It was very 398 00:35:37,210 --> 00:35:40,110 Speaker 1: hard for them to admit that they'd made a losing 399 00:35:40,230 --> 00:35:45,980 Speaker 1: bet on the militant ignoramuses. But by the early 1960s, 400 00:35:46,540 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: reality was knocking ever more loudly on the door. For 401 00:35:51,270 --> 00:35:56,290 Speaker 1: three decades, Lysenko had been promising big leaps forward in 402 00:35:56,490 --> 00:36:01,370 Speaker 1: agricultural productivity. But the Soviet Union was now having to 403 00:36:01,610 --> 00:36:07,390 Speaker 1: import wheat from America. Even after the discovery of the 404 00:36:07,510 --> 00:36:13,570 Speaker 1: double helix structure of DNA, Soviet journals of biology still 405 00:36:13,730 --> 00:36:17,570 Speaker 1: insisted the assertion that there are in an organism cells 406 00:36:18,110 --> 00:36:24,300 Speaker 1: Some minute particles, genes, responsible for the transmission of hereditary traits. 407 00:36:25,020 --> 00:36:31,720 Speaker 1: It's pure fantasy. Critical articles began to get past the censors. 408 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:38,410 Speaker 1: We do not talk of bourgeois physics or bourgeois chemistry, 409 00:36:39,110 --> 00:36:42,790 Speaker 1: said one. We follow carefully the work done abroad and 410 00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:47,950 Speaker 1: use all that is new and interesting. Only in biology... 411 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:52,880 Speaker 1: certain people still try persistently to draw a line between 412 00:36:53,000 --> 00:37:00,720 Speaker 1: Soviet and world science. Lysenko's supporters decried these attempts of 413 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:07,580 Speaker 1: the Weissmannist Morganists to disguise their ideas. But at last, 414 00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 1: the tide turned. In 1964, Soviet leaders eased Lysenko aside 415 00:37:17,890 --> 00:37:21,590 Speaker 1: He was allowed to keep tinkering on his experimental farm, 416 00:37:22,450 --> 00:37:30,460 Speaker 1: but no longer able to influence anything. When Norman Borlaug 417 00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:35,780 Speaker 1: arrived in Mexico in 1944, he was shocked by the 418 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:41,790 Speaker 1: poor crops and widespread hunger. Less than 20 years later, 419 00:37:42,410 --> 00:37:48,250 Speaker 1: Mexico was exporting wheat. It had more than it needed. 420 00:37:49,670 --> 00:37:53,090 Speaker 1: Borlaug wondered if the varieties he'd developed would grow as 421 00:37:53,150 --> 00:37:57,890 Speaker 1: well elsewhere in the world, where yields were still stubbornly low. 422 00:37:58,980 --> 00:38:03,440 Speaker 1: He'd travelled across North Africa and Asia, visiting farms and 423 00:38:03,500 --> 00:38:07,900 Speaker 1: meeting academic researchers to tell them about his work. Their 424 00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:13,090 Speaker 1: lack of interest appalled him. Half of humanity was going 425 00:38:13,110 --> 00:38:17,530 Speaker 1: to bed hungry. But the senior scientists were so ineffectual, 426 00:38:18,110 --> 00:38:21,730 Speaker 1: many were merely holding down a job, wasting their time 427 00:38:21,810 --> 00:38:29,010 Speaker 1: on scientific sideshows, chasing academic butterflies. Borlaug came up with 428 00:38:29,050 --> 00:38:35,210 Speaker 1: a plan, a fellowship scheme. Bring young scientists from around 429 00:38:35,250 --> 00:38:39,500 Speaker 1: the world to northwest Mexico to see how things should 430 00:38:39,580 --> 00:38:43,760 Speaker 1: be done. By now there was a brand new research station, 431 00:38:44,490 --> 00:38:50,370 Speaker 1: where scientists and farmers worked together. The scientists developing new varieties, 432 00:38:50,890 --> 00:38:55,830 Speaker 1: the farmers giving feedback on how they grew. Borlaug called 433 00:38:55,890 --> 00:39:01,240 Speaker 1: his international trainees the Wheat Apostles. In charge of their 434 00:39:01,300 --> 00:39:06,780 Speaker 1: training was the new research station's master technician, a young 435 00:39:06,820 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 1: man called Reyes-Weiger. The wheat apostles spread Borlaug's methods. Global 436 00:39:17,210 --> 00:39:23,560 Speaker 1: crop yields began to rise. In 1970, Borlaug was awarded 437 00:39:24,260 --> 00:39:30,260 Speaker 1: the Nobel Peace Prize. By some estimates, his work saved 438 00:39:30,460 --> 00:39:37,320 Speaker 1: a billion people from starvation. Still, that work is controversial. 439 00:39:38,420 --> 00:39:42,790 Speaker 1: The change in agriculture that Borlaug sparked became known as 440 00:39:42,850 --> 00:39:47,830 Speaker 1: the Green Revolution. As well as better varieties, it relied 441 00:39:47,890 --> 00:39:53,460 Speaker 1: on greater use of fertiliser, pesticides and irrigation. That stored 442 00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:59,650 Speaker 1: up problems for the future. Soil degradation, pollution, Water shortages. 443 00:40:01,470 --> 00:40:07,690 Speaker 1: Borlaug was unrepentant. Sure, he'd say, these are real problems. 444 00:40:08,170 --> 00:40:18,070 Speaker 1: They need solutions. Would you rather a billion people had starved? 445 00:40:18,170 --> 00:40:22,990 Speaker 1: In 1971, an American writer found himself sitting next to 446 00:40:23,050 --> 00:40:29,100 Speaker 1: Trofim Lysenko at a lunch table. Lysenko, too, was unrepentant 447 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:35,330 Speaker 1: and bitter. Vavilov came from a wealthy family. When I 448 00:40:35,350 --> 00:40:38,790 Speaker 1: was a boy, I walked barefoot in the fields. My 449 00:40:38,850 --> 00:40:42,130 Speaker 1: knowledge came from working in the fields. Their knowledge came 450 00:40:42,170 --> 00:40:50,830 Speaker 1: from books and laboratories. Books and laboratories. Imagine. But Lysenko 451 00:40:51,150 --> 00:40:55,550 Speaker 1: wasn't wrong in his diagnosis of the problem. Borlaug shared it. 452 00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:01,440 Speaker 1: Sometimes academic researchers really do get too comfortable in their 453 00:41:01,720 --> 00:41:06,100 Speaker 1: ivory towers, too detached from the real-world problems they should 454 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:11,260 Speaker 1: be using their skills to solve. Sometimes smart young people 455 00:41:11,340 --> 00:41:16,350 Speaker 1: with no formal education really can spot things the academics 456 00:41:16,390 --> 00:41:22,970 Speaker 1: have missed. Smart young people like Reyes Vega. But when 457 00:41:23,130 --> 00:41:27,610 Speaker 1: scientists are ineffectual, the problem is not were the basic 458 00:41:27,730 --> 00:41:36,080 Speaker 1: tools of science. Observe, be curious, measure, compare. Those are 459 00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:41,430 Speaker 1: tools that anyone can learn to use. In his frustration 460 00:41:41,510 --> 00:41:49,670 Speaker 1: with scientists, Lysenko cast aside the tools of science. Borlaug 461 00:41:50,450 --> 00:42:04,520 Speaker 1: took those tools and used them better. Cautionary Tales is 462 00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:08,160 Speaker 1: written by me, Tim Harford, with Andrew Wright, Alice Fiennes 463 00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:12,880 Speaker 1: and Ryan Dilley. It's produced by Georgia Mills and Marilyn Rust. 464 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,360 Speaker 1: The sound design and original music are the work of 465 00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:21,460 Speaker 1: Pascal Wise. Additional sound design by Carlos San Juan at 466 00:42:21,500 --> 00:42:27,000 Speaker 1: Brain Audio and Dan Jackson. Ben-Nadaf Hafri edited the scripts. 467 00:42:28,020 --> 00:42:31,430 Speaker 1: It features the voice talents of Melanie Guttridge, Genevieve Gaunt, 468 00:42:31,990 --> 00:42:37,950 Speaker 1: Stella Harford, Masaya Munro, Jamal Westman and Rufus Wright. The 469 00:42:37,990 --> 00:42:40,750 Speaker 1: show also wouldn't have been possible without the work of 470 00:42:40,850 --> 00:42:46,770 Speaker 1: Jacob Weisberg, Greta Cohn, Eric Sandler, Carrie Brody, Christina Sullivan, 471 00:42:47,490 --> 00:42:52,350 Speaker 1: Keira Posey and Owen Miller. Cautionary Tales is a production 472 00:42:52,390 --> 00:42:56,820 Speaker 1: of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, please remember... 473 00:42:56,790 --> 00:42:59,990 Speaker 1: to share, rate, and review. It really does make a 474 00:43:00,010 --> 00:43:03,080 Speaker 1: difference to us. And if you want to hear it 475 00:43:03,580 --> 00:43:08,600 Speaker 1: ad-free and receive a bonus audio episode, video episode, and 476 00:43:08,720 --> 00:43:13,420 Speaker 1: members-only newsletter every month, why not join the Cautionary Club? 477 00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:20,030 Speaker 1: To sign up, head to patreon.com slash cautionary club. That's patreon, 478 00:43:20,330 --> 00:43:25,730 Speaker 1: p-a-t-r-e-o-n dot com slash cautionary club.