WEBVTT - Unexpected Friday Orbit: ESPN's Bill Connelly 0:00:08.440 --> 0:00:15.520 Three two one zero, all engine running looked off. We 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:18.880 have a look job. Welcome back to the Celiverbal boys 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:23.200 and girls. My name is ty hilden Brandt. Thank you 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:26.639 for joining me. Bad news you are stuck with just 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:32.200 me today. Dan's fine. He's fine, but he's off tending 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.800 to a personal matter. He'll be back pretty soon. In 0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:40.239 the meantime, I dug through our deep, deep database of 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:44.360 friends of colleagues, of reporters, beat writers, you name it 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.680 to find someone who wouldn't mind blasting off into an 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:54.960 unexpected Friday orbit with me. And the good news is 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:57.680 that we got Bill Connolly from ESPN. It's going to 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:01.880 stop by here momentarily. We had him on as part 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.160 of one of those social media live streams that we 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:07.800 were doing with folks having trivia contests and whatnot. But 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:10.039 we actually haven't had a chance to catch up with 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:13.119 Bill since the season started to get his take on 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:16.720 what's been going down. And I have so many questions 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:20.000 for him, as somebody who we all know has a 0:01:20.040 --> 0:01:23.760 deep appreciation for the stats, has been a pioneer in 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:27.600 advanced analytics on the college football side. How do you 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.160 grade out twenty twenty? How do you even keep track 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:33.640 of stats in twenty twenty, so a bunch to get 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:37.280 through with him. Don't forget. If you haven't already subscribed 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:39.480 to the Solid Verbal, you can do so find all 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:42.400 the information you need by going out to solidverbal dot com. 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.720 We also have a banner, big yellow one at the 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:51.480 top introducing folks to Playwinterwonders dot com. It's our spin 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.920 on a bowl pool, just going to be for Patreon subscribers, 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:56.840 but it's going to be one of a kind and 0:01:56.840 --> 0:01:59.360 we're going to give away an ugly sweater I think 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.400 to the winner, which is our lower cost version of 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:06.760 a green jacket. But we're super pumped to have the contest. 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:09.040 We think you all are going to enjoy it as well. 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:12.000 Playwinter Wonders dot com is where you go for more 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:16.000 info on that. So look, without further ado, let's just 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:20.240 jump right into it. Appreciate you downloading the Unexpected Friday Orbit. 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:24.320 Here's Bill Connolly from ESPN, all right joining us now, 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:28.399 long time friend of the Solid Verbal. You know him well. 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:30.560 His name is Bill Connolly. Sir, how are you. 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:31.799 I'm not too bad? 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:37.880 How are you doing good? So you are in Columbia, Missouri? Correct? Correct? 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.000 How's Missouri football treating you this year. I know you're 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:41.679 a missoo guy. 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:48.480 Yeah, I mean it's interesting. I mean it's it's this 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:51.639 is clearly a flawed team. It's clearly, you know, not 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.280 the most talent and not the most experienced anything like that. 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.079 But they're pretty resourceful, and I think Eli Drinkwitz is 0:02:57.080 --> 0:02:59.160 pretty resourceful, and it's been kind of fun to follow. 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:04.240 I was not even like my editor pinged me and 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.959 mentioned that Missouri was going to be the first person 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.919 named on the show, or I guess had just been 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:12.720 the first team named on the show, and that was 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.880 not something I had on my radar. Like Lazaria's like 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.320 number sixty something in my sp plus ranking, so it's 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:20.120 not really top twenty five is not something I was 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:23.520 really envisioning here. But they've been, whether that's deserving or not, 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:25.720 they've been a really interesting team to follow. They can 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:28.440 apparently they can win a rock fight with Kentucky, and 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:30.760 then they can win a shootout with Arkansas and LSU two. 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:34.480 I mean, how much I'm curious, because you do the 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:38.520 sp plus, which we've referenced on this show for god 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:42.760 knows how long, how do you factor in a new 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:47.400 coach coming aboard, because I know a fair amount of 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:51.760 your calculations are based on returning production guys that are 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.480 coming back. You look at all sorts of different factors, 0:03:54.520 --> 0:03:57.680 But the whole coaching thing seems like it'd be really 0:03:57.680 --> 0:03:59.640 difficult to try and game out in advance. 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:02.560 Yeah, I mean the way I factored in is I 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:07.080 don't Yeah, they just has it's everything zero some so 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:10.680 it really is kind of hard. Like I've tickered around. 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.480 The best idea I've had is to sort of tick 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:19.360 around with the concept of uh, kind of just historical averages, 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:23.200 like you're you know, if you're overachieving as a program 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:24.960 and you lose your coach, chances are you're going to 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:28.640 regress towards your hysterical mean. If you're underachieving and you 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:30.960 fire your coach and bring in somebody else, you'll probably 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:35.200 progress towards your historical mean. I haven't figured out the 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:38.120 best way to execute that yet, and I haven't found anything. 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:38.360 Else to work. 0:04:38.400 --> 0:04:41.120 So basically, they just have asterisks by them and here's 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:43.720 the projection butt and that's about all I can do. 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:46.520 This has been a year of butts, though, hasn't it. 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:50.039 I just butts all around just nothing, but butts man, 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:55.279 I want to know more about how it's been on 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:57.560 your end trying to keep track of all the advanced stuff, 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:00.599 all the advanced stats that again we and love on 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.680 this show. But I want to hear about some of 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:06.720 those odd challenges that you've had, Like we've all the 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:10.920 entire world has had a litany of challenges. But as 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:14.920 it relates to college football and your very specific corner 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:19.160 of the college football ether and internet and statistical universe, 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:23.440 what has it been like to try and match Team 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:27.400 A up with Team B when they've played different games, 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:31.000 when they're canceling games, when there are these extended breaks 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:35.200 between games, Like I would imagine that's been an utter 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:35.920 nightmare for you. 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:37.600 Well, it's it has. 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.680 I mean from one standpoint, I mean you just look 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.000 at Prediction Tracker, and I referenced this in a piece 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.360 I wad earlier this week. You look at Prediction Tracker, 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:51.240 you look at the top team ratings, the top systems. 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:55.119 I guess in Prediction Tracker, they're the best of the best. 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:58.520 Their average is lower than it normally is. It's just 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:02.200 like not dramatically so, but whereas the top ratings would 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.719 normally average like you know, fifty three fifty four percent. 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.479 Now it's like fifty two fifty two and a half 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:10.480 percent against the spread that absolute error that that average 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.880 of like your projection versus reality. How many points did 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.960 you miss it by? You know, that would normally be twelve, 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:18.640 the twelve and a half of the best measures. Now 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.960 it's closer to thirteen or a little over thirteen. So 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.839 there's just like a little bit of difference there. And 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.760 I've definitely found in doing like best bets and stuff 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:30.160 every week for ESPN chalk like, it's harder to come 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:31.840 up with a system like these are the picks that 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.880 it's that it's doing well on. You know, last year 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:36.880 I had kind of a thing where you know, if 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.360 it's if s P plus disagrees by more than three 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.880 points and it's you know, a line in this range 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:42.560 and blah blah blah. 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:43.480 There's none of that. This year. 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:46.680 I've been just flailing on those best best picks because 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:48.599 I keep looking for trends that aren't there. So that's 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:50.640 been weird, and that's had a lot to do. It's 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:52.919 just the fact that I mean, number one, Vegas has 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:55.120 better information than you do recording who's going to be 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:58.080 out and the market you know, is going to adjust 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:00.080 in a way that a computer system isn't going to you, 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:01.400 but it is. 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:02.560 It's been a challenge. 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.960 The other part, though, is coming up that the biggest 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:09.359 challenge is bowl season. If you know there's going to 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:13.840 be a bowl season, I will see. But the like 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:18.600 the hierarchy within a given conference. You know, I think 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:21.040 i've you know, my system, and plenty of others have 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:23.600 have have sussed that out pretty well. You know that 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.360 Alabama's about this much better than everybody else in the SEC. 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:28.880 You kind of know the Florida and Georgia are next A, 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:32.000 and M's in there somewhere. You so the hierarchy within 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.240 each of the ten conferences kind of probably fits pretty well. 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:39.160 And so you know, since you're only playing against your conference, 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.000 that means the picks haven't been demonstrably worse because you 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.320 know the hierarchy. But what's the How good is the 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.240 SEC compared to the ACC, compared to the PAC twelve, 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:49.240 compared to the Big ten? 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:53.080 No freaking idea, because you have you have none of 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:54.960 that connective tissue this year, right. 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:57.360 Right, we have priors, and priors are very good. 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.320 Everybody hates priors, because you know, just judge just on 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.080 this year, not on previous whatever. But they're in there 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.920 for a reason. They make the predictions better. But I 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:10.320 can't say with confidence that the SEC is exactly as good, 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:12.520 no better, or worse than it was last year, or 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:15.000 that exactly is good, no better, or worse than the 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:20.680 preseason projection said. And so figuring out that balance is 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:22.360 going to be really weird, and we're going to suddenly 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.800 have a little a mini explosion of non conference games 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.160 here in another month or so. And I mean, I 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:30.920 don't know the best way to avoid my system overreacting 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:32.760 and all the ways that I tell everybody to never 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.600 overreact to balls. It's just kind of like, if the 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.520 SEC has three or four games that three or four 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.960 teams that underachieved, suddenly it's gonna be the fifth best conference, 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:42.840 and I'm going to have to figure out the best 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:44.600 plan of attack for just kind of balancing that. 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:49.640 Speaking of overreactions, what kind of overreactions? What kind of 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.040 weird reactions have you gotten to some of your work 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:56.320 here in the twenty twenty season, Because you know, being 0:08:56.320 --> 0:09:00.480 with ESPN, your your fine work is front stage center, 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:04.640 which obviously opens you up to a lot more fan criticism. 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:08.319 I know you're but mindful of the kinds of feedback 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.360 you get every year. But what what has twenty twenty 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:12.720 brought to you this season? 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:16.000 Well, it has perpetuated ain't played nobody. First of all, 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:19.080 that's that's not something that we can just use in 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:22.120 September anymore. Or if a team has managed to have 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.040 just the right conference schedule to where they don't really 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.560 play anybody until November. No, it's been you know, as 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.360 soon as a couple of leagues have had actual games 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:31.720 between good teams, another one starts off and they ain't 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.160 played nobody. So that's been I've been yelled at all 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:37.040 year because Ohio State was number one in SPPLUS still 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.240 about mid November, you know, one to o Ohio State 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:43.640 ahead of seven and oh Alabama or whatever, And you 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:46.040 know that's been I think there's just been a visual 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:48.960 disconnect in that regard that hasn't existed in previous season. 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.160 How could you possibly say they're better. They've only played 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:54.080 one game and all that stuff, So that's certainly been different. 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:58.320 I will say moving behind the paywall has gotten me 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.600 yelled at well, has has resulted in me getting yelled 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:05.480 at a little less for you know, whether that's good 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.360 or bad is up to interpretation, I guess, but that 0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:10.400 has certainly changed. Now I just get yelled at for 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.120 being behind the paywall, So that's all different. 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:17.439 Speaking of that bill, are the best four teams truly Alabama, 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.920 Notre Dame, Clemson in Ohio State? Maybe not in that order, 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:24.080 I know, not exactly in that order for the SP plus, 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:29.400 But how often do you sort of compare your own 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:32.200 eye tests with what your numbers are telling you? Or 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:37.439 have you now merged into being one giant college football computer? 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:40.520 I definitely, I mean, I know what the ratings say, 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:42.960 and I take that as a pretty hard suggestion to 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:44.960 look at. Like, I don't have to believe that Virginia 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:47.560 Tech's a top twenty five team. However, I can stray 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.240 if I just can't justify something in my head. But yeah, 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:55.320 I mean, if you're judging by resume, well, the resume 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.480 conversation's weird with Ohio State right now. But the College 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:00.960 Football Playoff rankin's top four is the s P plus 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:05.800 top four Ohio State. All the talk about sample sizes 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:07.920 that we've made this week, bottom line is Ohio State 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:09.760 has had enough of a sample to prove it's the 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.760 best team in the East. Defense you know, hasn't quite 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:16.840 lived up to projections, but it's I feel very comfortable 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:18.600 thinking of them as one of the four best teams 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:22.080 in the country, and so I don't I haven't minded. 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.800 I felt like a sellout, like I was selling out Indiana, 0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:28.400 a fellow underdog school, because I just could not get 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:30.240 myself worked up at all this week about a highest 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:32.040 taketing in the title game because there's the best, best 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:33.960 team in the East and they beat Indiana. 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:37.280 Wow, what a weird circumstance we find ourselves in. And 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:41.960 it's it's affected schools disproportionately. One of the talking points 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.600 that Dan and I tried to examine a little more 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:48.680 closely on one of our recent episodes was which teams 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:55.640 do we feel have been disproportionately affected by the virus COVID? 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:59.520 And I'm wondering if you've given any thought to that point, 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:03.120 because again, numbers only tell you so much. Right, some 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.760 of what you've got in your S and P system 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:10.000 is very accurate. I'm guessing there are other schools like 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.560 LSU that maybe were affected in ways that we could 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:17.200 not have predicted. Do you have any schools that come 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:18.080 to mind for you. 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.280 Yeah, I mean you could kind of put Ohio State, 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.960 for instance, in both of those categories really because they 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.920 had a very experienced team with a lot of proven pieces, 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.400 even if they had some guys to replace, especially on 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:31.920 defense and I guess at running back. It took them 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:33.480 a couple of games to really kind of get into 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:35.880 a rhythm there. Like you could say that they were 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:38.600 more ready than other schools to hit the ground running 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.640 whenever they got the chance to hit the ground running. 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:44.559 At the same time, when you say who's been disproportionately 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:47.920 affected by COVID, my first thought goes to these schools 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.760 that had a small sample size to begin with and 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.840 suddenly have half that sample size, you know, usc not 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.360 getting every chance to prove what they're capable of. Right now, 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.040 Ohio State got just enough to get the benefit of 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.880 the doubt. But obviously that's been a big point of 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.720 discussion because they had to cancel one of their other games, 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.760 and if I remember right, two other schools had to 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:08.520 cancel a hot games with Ohio State. 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:09.560 If I got that all. 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:14.600 Straight, but you know you could that's you know, just 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.360 having a limited opportunity to make an impression anyway, and 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:19.959 then having even one game canceled, like USC I think 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:20.520 has had one. 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:22.480 I think. 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.719 That I just I mean, I hate, just personally, I 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:28.439 hate that we've got pretty much to the end of 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:30.559 the season. Now we don't really know USC, we don't 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.480 really know UCLA, who might be an interesting story. We 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:37.240 don't know Utah at all. Like Washington and Oregon are 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.160 both I think are both very good, but they both 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.280 suffered those dumb losses where s pop plus treated it 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.000 as a win and all that stuff, and then they're 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.760 off the field. So I mean, I do feel like 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.160 obviously they had little margin for er anyway, but I 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.360 can't That's where my brain goes first. 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:53.800 It's just like they've. 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:56.120 Been Any chance they had of putting together a playoff 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:59.679 resume probably didn't exist anyway, and it definitely didn't exist 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:01.080 the moment they had a game canceled. 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:03.880 I want to go back to LSU for a second, 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:08.640 because we've spent I know, you spent a fair amount 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.720 of energy trying to figure out exactly what's going on 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:16.280 at LSU, and you know, at the risk of making 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:17.959 a mountain out of a mole hill in a weird 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:20.680 year where there was a ton of turnover. You lose 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:26.360 a generational quarterback or quarterback after a generational season, it 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:29.000 kind of does feel like there is a little bit 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:32.800 more meat on the bone there. They switched defensive coordinators. 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.240 The defense was a mess early on. Seemed at one 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.400 point like maybe it was starting to come together. Then 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.320 suddenly it wasn't what's your read on LYC? What are 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:42.200 the numbers tell you there? 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:46.360 Yeah? I mean, you're right, it is. You know, stuff 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:47.120 happens sometimes. 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.120 There was obviously going to be a regression sometimes and 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:50.920 you don't really know how much there's going to be. 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:53.080 But especially as soon as Miles Brennan got hurt, Like, 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.800 not only do you lose Burrow, you lose Burrow's successor 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:58.960 after whatever that was three games or something like that 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.360 was obviously going to hurt. They obviously weren't going to 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:04.920 be a top ten caliber team. But like when I 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.760 wrote the preview for the SEC West, whatever that was, I. 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.040 Guess I don't even remember what time to construct. 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:12.320 I guess just a contract. 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.800 Yeah, early September, we'll say early September. I didn't mention 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:17.920 like I didn't love that he had these two up 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.360 and comers. He inherited one in Dave Randa. On the 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:26.800 defensive side, he brings in Joe Brady. He like young energy, creativity, 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.720 He sees the impact that can have on his program, 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:32.520 and when they leave, he hires two old friends. 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:37.200 That it didn't rub me the right way, especially. 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.200 When one of those was Bopolinia, who hasn't technically been 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.120 a part of a good FBS defense in a while now. 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:47.280 Like his reputation was, you know, generated from what like 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:49.920 three to thirteen or something like that. The world's changed 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.080 a little bit, so I didn't I didn't love that. 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:55.120 It felt like a lesson that he didn't learn, and 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:57.880 he could have tried to keep moving moving forward as 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.240 a program, keeping new ideas coming in, and that he 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.360 just kind of brought two old guys in to reinforce 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:04.800 what they already had. So that the fact that didn't 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.880 really work out plenty. They really did improve defensively recently. 0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:09.960 I'm not going to judge anybody for what they do 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:14.680 against Alabama. I mean, that's doesn't feel fair because Alabama 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:17.000 is a nearly perfect offense. But the two games before 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:20.000 that they both looked good or better, So maybe that 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:23.040 works out okay. But when you have an inkling that 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:26.320 you don't like a certain higher and then that hire 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:30.480 immediately just falls apart completely, it gives you the impression 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:33.480 it's not just pure. They lost a bunch of players 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.440 and they'll be back as soon as they get more experienced. 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.120 There were some iffy decisions there in the same way 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:41.720 that there were really good decisions one, two, three years ago. 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.160 Yeah, you know, your Alabama points are really valid one. 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.880 And it's something Dan and I have grappled with a 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.520 lot with respect to Texas A and M. Right because 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:53.440 A and M's only loss on the year was that 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.320 drubbing they took at the hands of Alabama. They're currently 0:16:57.440 --> 0:17:00.760 fifth in the rankings. They're knocking to get another crack 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:04.879 at Alabama. This whole notion of who is the next 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:09.119 team up outside of that top four to me, again, 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:14.639 we hesitate to frame everything within the soul context of 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:18.840 the playoff, but who the next team up would be? 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:21.199 Who that number four team is to me is the 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.679 most interesting topic around that point right now. Because A 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:28.320 and M's there, but so is Florida. They're going to 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:32.359 get their crack at Bama pretty soon. Iowa State is 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:36.200 beating down the door. They're going to have a matchup 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:39.119 with Oklahoma, which is interesting. Oklahoma is further down in 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.240 the rankings, but they still kind of are trying to 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.680 make their case. And then there's a team like Cincinnati, which, 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.760 I gotta be honest, in a normal year, I think 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.080 it would be a fairy tale to even consider them 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.600 as part of this discussion. Rightly or wrongly, that's just 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.720 the way this thing goes. But my point all along 0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:01.000 has been, hey, twenty twenty, a lot of weird stuff happened. 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:05.119 In any way, they have played really really well this season, 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:08.879 and they've had their bouts with cancelations and postponements as well. 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:13.000 But have you given much thought to who that next 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:17.000 team up is in the event that presumably a Notre 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:20.280 Dame or a Clemson drops out and there's another spot. 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:25.560 Yeah, Unfortunately, like the big Cinderela, scenarios probably required either 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.439 Notre Dame Clemson or Florida I guess to lose again 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:32.440 or in Notre Dames Cleanse to lose the first time, 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:34.280 just to kind of open the door, because you can 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:36.399 really easily see a scenario even if we assume that 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:41.840 Ohios stake gets in, Like Alabama beats Florida, Clemson beats 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.399 Notre Dame. There you go those of your four, and 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:49.440 or Florida beats Alabama, they get in and maybe the 0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:52.119 Clemson Notre Dame losers now out or whatever. Like you, 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:54.600 it's hard to get past Florida in that instance. And 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:56.920 you're right, I mean A and M's fifth. But Florida 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:58.360 is the only team with the chance at a good 0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.560 win now, and so if they beat Alabama, they'll obviously 0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:04.679 jump A and M. A and m's only hope really 0:19:04.800 --> 0:19:10.480 is for what both Florida and Clemson to lose and 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:14.359 then nobody else jumps up. I get so mad at 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:16.399 the Committee most of the time because it's kind of 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:18.680 with my numbers, Like you know, since I get yelled 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:20.920 at about my numbers, I'll usually root for whatever they pick, 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.199 unless I have some other interests just because I like 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:28.600 not getting yelled at. But I hate it when something 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.560 like the Committee makes me yell about Iowa State being overrated, 0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:34.720 like I love every bit of this Iowa State story, 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:38.560 kind of the same way with Indiana, and the Committee 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:40.919 now makes me have to stand up and shout that 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:43.119 Iowa State has no business being as high as they 0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:45.480 are in the rankings that it's an absolute joke that 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.560 Cincinnati's behind them at Iowa State did, after all, lose 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.840 to Louisiana and they lost to Oklahoma State, which I 0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.920 think the only purpose Oklahoma State has in the rankings 0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:59.040 right now is to give Iowa State another quality loss. 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:01.160 I have no idea how U still ranked either. 0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:03.760 Another team that I usually say nice things about that 0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:05.560 they're making me say mean things about now. But I 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:07.920 really that's been my biggest issue. I have no idea 0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:10.520 how Iowa States that high. They they're very good, and 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.840 predictively they'd be a fifty to fifty draw with Cincinnati 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:16.360 right now. But Cincinnati's blown out all but one team 0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:18.919 on their schedule. The other team is very good in UCF, 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:22.000 and they beat them to Iowa Stay lost to Louisiana 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.359 and Oklahoma State. What are we doing in that regard? 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:28.560 So I don't see any possible way Cincinnati possibly gets 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:29.800 up to even fifth now. 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:30.919 And that's I hate that. 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:34.840 This is like they've done absolutely everything right and they're 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:36.679 still not going to get rewarded for it, and the 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:38.600