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Speaker 1: Three two one zero, all engine running looked off. We

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Speaker 1: have a look job. Welcome back to the Celiverbal boys

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Speaker 1: and girls. My name is ty hilden Brandt. Thank you

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Speaker 1: for joining me. Bad news you are stuck with just

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Speaker 1: me today. Dan's fine. He's fine, but he's off tending

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Speaker 1: to a personal matter. He'll be back pretty soon. In

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Speaker 1: the meantime, I dug through our deep, deep database of

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Speaker 1: friends of colleagues, of reporters, beat writers, you name it

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Speaker 1: to find someone who wouldn't mind blasting off into an

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Speaker 1: unexpected Friday orbit with me. And the good news is

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Speaker 1: that we got Bill Connolly from ESPN. It's going to

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Speaker 1: stop by here momentarily. We had him on as part

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Speaker 1: of one of those social media live streams that we

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Speaker 1: were doing with folks having trivia contests and whatnot. But

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Speaker 1: we actually haven't had a chance to catch up with

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Speaker 1: Bill since the season started to get his take on

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Speaker 1: what's been going down. And I have so many questions

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Speaker 1: for him, as somebody who we all know has a

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Speaker 1: deep appreciation for the stats, has been a pioneer in

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Speaker 1: advanced analytics on the college football side. How do you

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Speaker 1: grade out twenty twenty? How do you even keep track

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Speaker 1: of stats in twenty twenty, so a bunch to get

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Speaker 1: through with him. Don't forget. If you haven't already subscribed

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Speaker 1: to the Solid Verbal, you can do so find all

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Speaker 1: the information you need by going out to solidverbal dot com.

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Speaker 1: We also have a banner, big yellow one at the

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Speaker 1: top introducing folks to Playwinterwonders dot com. It's our spin

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Speaker 1: on a bowl pool, just going to be for Patreon subscribers,

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Speaker 1: but it's going to be one of a kind and

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Speaker 1: we're going to give away an ugly sweater I think

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Speaker 1: to the winner, which is our lower cost version of

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Speaker 1: a green jacket. But we're super pumped to have the contest.

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Speaker 1: We think you all are going to enjoy it as well.

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Speaker 1: Playwinter Wonders dot com is where you go for more

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Speaker 1: info on that. So look, without further ado, let's just

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Speaker 1: jump right into it. Appreciate you downloading the Unexpected Friday Orbit.

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Speaker 1: Here's Bill Connolly from ESPN, all right joining us now,

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Speaker 1: long time friend of the Solid Verbal. You know him well.

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Speaker 1: His name is Bill Connolly. Sir, how are you.

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Speaker 2: I'm not too bad?

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Speaker 1: How are you doing good? So you are in Columbia, Missouri? Correct? Correct?

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Speaker 1: How's Missouri football treating you this year. I know you're

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Speaker 1: a missoo guy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's interesting. I mean it's it's this

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Speaker 3: is clearly a flawed team. It's clearly, you know, not

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Speaker 3: the most talent and not the most experienced anything like that.

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Speaker 3: But they're pretty resourceful, and I think Eli Drinkwitz is

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Speaker 3: pretty resourceful, and it's been kind of fun to follow.

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Speaker 3: I was not even like my editor pinged me and

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Speaker 3: mentioned that Missouri was going to be the first person

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Speaker 3: named on the show, or I guess had just been

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Speaker 3: the first team named on the show, and that was

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Speaker 3: not something I had on my radar. Like Lazaria's like

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Speaker 3: number sixty something in my sp plus ranking, so it's

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Speaker 3: not really top twenty five is not something I was

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Speaker 3: really envisioning here. But they've been, whether that's deserving or not,

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Speaker 3: they've been a really interesting team to follow. They can

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Speaker 3: apparently they can win a rock fight with Kentucky, and

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Speaker 3: then they can win a shootout with Arkansas and LSU two.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how much I'm curious, because you do the

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Speaker 1: sp plus, which we've referenced on this show for god

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Speaker 1: knows how long, how do you factor in a new

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Speaker 1: coach coming aboard, because I know a fair amount of

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Speaker 1: your calculations are based on returning production guys that are

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Speaker 1: coming back. You look at all sorts of different factors,

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Speaker 1: But the whole coaching thing seems like it'd be really

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Speaker 1: difficult to try and game out in advance.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the way I factored in is I

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Speaker 3: don't Yeah, they just has it's everything zero some so

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Speaker 3: it really is kind of hard. Like I've tickered around.

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Speaker 3: The best idea I've had is to sort of tick

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Speaker 3: around with the concept of uh, kind of just historical averages,

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Speaker 3: like you're you know, if you're overachieving as a program

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Speaker 3: and you lose your coach, chances are you're going to

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Speaker 3: regress towards your hysterical mean. If you're underachieving and you

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Speaker 3: fire your coach and bring in somebody else, you'll probably

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Speaker 3: progress towards your historical mean. I haven't figured out the

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Speaker 3: best way to execute that yet, and I haven't found anything.

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Speaker 2: Else to work.

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Speaker 3: So basically, they just have asterisks by them and here's

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Speaker 3: the projection butt and that's about all I can do.

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Speaker 1: This has been a year of butts, though, hasn't it.

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Speaker 1: I just butts all around just nothing, but butts man,

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Speaker 1: I want to know more about how it's been on

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Speaker 1: your end trying to keep track of all the advanced stuff,

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Speaker 1: all the advanced stats that again we and love on

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Speaker 1: this show. But I want to hear about some of

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Speaker 1: those odd challenges that you've had, Like we've all the

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Speaker 1: entire world has had a litany of challenges. But as

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Speaker 1: it relates to college football and your very specific corner

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Speaker 1: of the college football ether and internet and statistical universe,

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Speaker 1: what has it been like to try and match Team

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Speaker 1: A up with Team B when they've played different games,

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Speaker 1: when they're canceling games, when there are these extended breaks

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Speaker 1: between games, Like I would imagine that's been an utter

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Speaker 1: nightmare for you.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's it has.

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Speaker 3: I mean from one standpoint, I mean you just look

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Speaker 3: at Prediction Tracker, and I referenced this in a piece

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Speaker 3: I wad earlier this week. You look at Prediction Tracker,

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Speaker 3: you look at the top team ratings, the top systems.

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Speaker 3: I guess in Prediction Tracker, they're the best of the best.

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Speaker 3: Their average is lower than it normally is. It's just

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Speaker 3: like not dramatically so, but whereas the top ratings would

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Speaker 3: normally average like you know, fifty three fifty four percent.

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Speaker 3: Now it's like fifty two fifty two and a half

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Speaker 3: percent against the spread that absolute error that that average

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Speaker 3: of like your projection versus reality. How many points did

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Speaker 3: you miss it by? You know, that would normally be twelve,

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Speaker 3: the twelve and a half of the best measures. Now

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Speaker 3: it's closer to thirteen or a little over thirteen. So

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Speaker 3: there's just like a little bit of difference there. And

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Speaker 3: I've definitely found in doing like best bets and stuff

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Speaker 3: every week for ESPN chalk like, it's harder to come

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Speaker 3: up with a system like these are the picks that

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Speaker 3: it's that it's doing well on. You know, last year

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Speaker 3: I had kind of a thing where you know, if

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Speaker 3: it's if s P plus disagrees by more than three

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Speaker 3: points and it's you know, a line in this range

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Speaker 3: and blah blah blah.

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Speaker 2: There's none of that. This year.

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Speaker 3: I've been just flailing on those best best picks because

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Speaker 3: I keep looking for trends that aren't there. So that's

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Speaker 3: been weird, and that's had a lot to do. It's

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Speaker 3: just the fact that I mean, number one, Vegas has

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Speaker 3: better information than you do recording who's going to be

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Speaker 3: out and the market you know, is going to adjust

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Speaker 3: in a way that a computer system isn't going to you,

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Speaker 3: but it is.

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Speaker 2: It's been a challenge.

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Speaker 3: The other part, though, is coming up that the biggest

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Speaker 3: challenge is bowl season. If you know there's going to

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Speaker 3: be a bowl season, I will see. But the like

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Speaker 3: the hierarchy within a given conference. You know, I think

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Speaker 3: i've you know, my system, and plenty of others have

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Speaker 3: have have sussed that out pretty well. You know that

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Speaker 3: Alabama's about this much better than everybody else in the SEC.

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Speaker 3: You kind of know the Florida and Georgia are next A,

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Speaker 3: and M's in there somewhere. You so the hierarchy within

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Speaker 3: each of the ten conferences kind of probably fits pretty well.

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Speaker 3: And so you know, since you're only playing against your conference,

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Speaker 3: that means the picks haven't been demonstrably worse because you

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Speaker 3: know the hierarchy. But what's the How good is the

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Speaker 3: SEC compared to the ACC, compared to the PAC twelve,

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Speaker 3: compared to the Big ten?

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Speaker 1: No freaking idea, because you have you have none of

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Speaker 1: that connective tissue this year, right.

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Speaker 2: Right, we have priors, and priors are very good.

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Speaker 3: Everybody hates priors, because you know, just judge just on

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Speaker 3: this year, not on previous whatever. But they're in there

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Speaker 3: for a reason. They make the predictions better. But I

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Speaker 3: can't say with confidence that the SEC is exactly as good,

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Speaker 3: no better, or worse than it was last year, or

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Speaker 3: that exactly is good, no better, or worse than the

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Speaker 3: preseason projection said. And so figuring out that balance is

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Speaker 3: going to be really weird, and we're going to suddenly

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Speaker 3: have a little a mini explosion of non conference games

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Speaker 3: here in another month or so. And I mean, I

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Speaker 3: don't know the best way to avoid my system overreacting

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Speaker 3: and all the ways that I tell everybody to never

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Speaker 3: overreact to balls. It's just kind of like, if the

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Speaker 3: SEC has three or four games that three or four

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Speaker 3: teams that underachieved, suddenly it's gonna be the fifth best conference,

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Speaker 3: and I'm going to have to figure out the best

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Speaker 3: plan of attack for just kind of balancing that.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of overreactions, what kind of overreactions? What kind of

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Speaker 1: weird reactions have you gotten to some of your work

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Speaker 1: here in the twenty twenty season, Because you know, being

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Speaker 1: with ESPN, your your fine work is front stage center,

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Speaker 1: which obviously opens you up to a lot more fan criticism.

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Speaker 1: I know you're but mindful of the kinds of feedback

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Speaker 1: you get every year. But what what has twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: brought to you this season?

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Speaker 3: Well, it has perpetuated ain't played nobody. First of all,

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Speaker 3: that's that's not something that we can just use in

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Speaker 3: September anymore. Or if a team has managed to have

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Speaker 3: just the right conference schedule to where they don't really

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Speaker 3: play anybody until November. No, it's been you know, as

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Speaker 3: soon as a couple of leagues have had actual games

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Speaker 3: between good teams, another one starts off and they ain't

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Speaker 3: played nobody. So that's been I've been yelled at all

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Speaker 3: year because Ohio State was number one in SPPLUS still

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Speaker 3: about mid November, you know, one to o Ohio State

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Speaker 3: ahead of seven and oh Alabama or whatever, And you

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Speaker 3: know that's been I think there's just been a visual

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Speaker 3: disconnect in that regard that hasn't existed in previous season.

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Speaker 3: How could you possibly say they're better. They've only played

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Speaker 3: one game and all that stuff, So that's certainly been different.

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Speaker 3: I will say moving behind the paywall has gotten me

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Speaker 3: yelled at well, has has resulted in me getting yelled

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Speaker 3: at a little less for you know, whether that's good

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Speaker 3: or bad is up to interpretation, I guess, but that

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Speaker 3: has certainly changed. Now I just get yelled at for

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Speaker 3: being behind the paywall, So that's all different.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of that bill, are the best four teams truly Alabama,

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame, Clemson in Ohio State? Maybe not in that order,

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Speaker 1: I know, not exactly in that order for the SP plus,

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Speaker 1: But how often do you sort of compare your own

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Speaker 1: eye tests with what your numbers are telling you? Or

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Speaker 1: have you now merged into being one giant college football computer?

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Speaker 3: I definitely, I mean, I know what the ratings say,

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Speaker 3: and I take that as a pretty hard suggestion to

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Speaker 3: look at. Like, I don't have to believe that Virginia

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Speaker 3: Tech's a top twenty five team. However, I can stray

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Speaker 3: if I just can't justify something in my head. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you're judging by resume, well, the resume

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Speaker 3: conversation's weird with Ohio State right now. But the College

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Speaker 3: Football Playoff rankin's top four is the s P plus

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Speaker 3: top four Ohio State. All the talk about sample sizes

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Speaker 3: that we've made this week, bottom line is Ohio State

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Speaker 3: has had enough of a sample to prove it's the

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Speaker 3: best team in the East. Defense you know, hasn't quite

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Speaker 3: lived up to projections, but it's I feel very comfortable

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Speaker 3: thinking of them as one of the four best teams

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Speaker 3: in the country, and so I don't I haven't minded.

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Speaker 3: I felt like a sellout, like I was selling out Indiana,

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Speaker 3: a fellow underdog school, because I just could not get

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Speaker 3: myself worked up at all this week about a highest

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Speaker 3: taketing in the title game because there's the best, best

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Speaker 3: team in the East and they beat Indiana.

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Speaker 1: Wow, what a weird circumstance we find ourselves in. And

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Speaker 1: it's it's affected schools disproportionately. One of the talking points

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Speaker 1: that Dan and I tried to examine a little more

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Speaker 1: closely on one of our recent episodes was which teams

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Speaker 1: do we feel have been disproportionately affected by the virus COVID?

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Speaker 1: And I'm wondering if you've given any thought to that point,

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Speaker 1: because again, numbers only tell you so much. Right, some

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Speaker 1: of what you've got in your S and P system

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Speaker 1: is very accurate. I'm guessing there are other schools like

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Speaker 1: LSU that maybe were affected in ways that we could

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Speaker 1: not have predicted. Do you have any schools that come

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Speaker 1: to mind for you.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you could kind of put Ohio State,

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Speaker 3: for instance, in both of those categories really because they

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Speaker 3: had a very experienced team with a lot of proven pieces,

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Speaker 3: even if they had some guys to replace, especially on

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Speaker 3: defense and I guess at running back. It took them

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Speaker 3: a couple of games to really kind of get into

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Speaker 3: a rhythm there. Like you could say that they were

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Speaker 3: more ready than other schools to hit the ground running

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Speaker 3: whenever they got the chance to hit the ground running.

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Speaker 3: At the same time, when you say who's been disproportionately

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Speaker 3: affected by COVID, my first thought goes to these schools

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Speaker 3: that had a small sample size to begin with and

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Speaker 3: suddenly have half that sample size, you know, usc not

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Speaker 3: getting every chance to prove what they're capable of. Right now,

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Speaker 3: Ohio State got just enough to get the benefit of

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Speaker 3: the doubt. But obviously that's been a big point of

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Speaker 3: discussion because they had to cancel one of their other games,

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Speaker 3: and if I remember right, two other schools had to

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Speaker 3: cancel a hot games with Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: If I got that all.

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Speaker 3: Straight, but you know you could that's you know, just

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Speaker 3: having a limited opportunity to make an impression anyway, and

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Speaker 3: then having even one game canceled, like USC I think

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Speaker 3: has had one.

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 3: That I just I mean, I hate, just personally, I

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Speaker 3: hate that we've got pretty much to the end of

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Speaker 3: the season. Now we don't really know USC, we don't

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Speaker 3: really know UCLA, who might be an interesting story. We

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Speaker 3: don't know Utah at all. Like Washington and Oregon are

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Speaker 3: both I think are both very good, but they both

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Speaker 3: suffered those dumb losses where s pop plus treated it

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Speaker 3: as a win and all that stuff, and then they're

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Speaker 3: off the field. So I mean, I do feel like

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Speaker 3: obviously they had little margin for er anyway, but I

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Speaker 3: can't That's where my brain goes first.

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Speaker 2: It's just like they've.

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Speaker 3: Been Any chance they had of putting together a playoff

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Speaker 3: resume probably didn't exist anyway, and it definitely didn't exist

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Speaker 3: the moment they had a game canceled.

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Speaker 1: I want to go back to LSU for a second,

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Speaker 1: because we've spent I know, you spent a fair amount

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Speaker 1: of energy trying to figure out exactly what's going on

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Speaker 1: at LSU, and you know, at the risk of making

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Speaker 1: a mountain out of a mole hill in a weird

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Speaker 1: year where there was a ton of turnover. You lose

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Speaker 1: a generational quarterback or quarterback after a generational season, it

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Speaker 1: kind of does feel like there is a little bit

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Speaker 1: more meat on the bone there. They switched defensive coordinators.

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Speaker 1: The defense was a mess early on. Seemed at one

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Speaker 1: point like maybe it was starting to come together. Then

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Speaker 1: suddenly it wasn't what's your read on LYC? What are

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Speaker 1: the numbers tell you there?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, you're right, it is. You know, stuff

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Speaker 2: happens sometimes.

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Speaker 3: There was obviously going to be a regression sometimes and

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Speaker 3: you don't really know how much there's going to be.

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Speaker 3: But especially as soon as Miles Brennan got hurt, Like,

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Speaker 3: not only do you lose Burrow, you lose Burrow's successor

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Speaker 3: after whatever that was three games or something like that

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Speaker 3: was obviously going to hurt. They obviously weren't going to

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Speaker 3: be a top ten caliber team. But like when I

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Speaker 3: wrote the preview for the SEC West, whatever that was, I.

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Speaker 2: Guess I don't even remember what time to construct.

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Speaker 1: I guess just a contract.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, early September, we'll say early September. I didn't mention

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Speaker 3: like I didn't love that he had these two up

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Speaker 3: and comers. He inherited one in Dave Randa. On the

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Speaker 3: defensive side, he brings in Joe Brady. He like young energy, creativity,

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Speaker 3: He sees the impact that can have on his program,

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Speaker 3: and when they leave, he hires two old friends.

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Speaker 2: That it didn't rub me the right way, especially.

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Speaker 3: When one of those was Bopolinia, who hasn't technically been

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Speaker 3: a part of a good FBS defense in a while now.

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Speaker 3: Like his reputation was, you know, generated from what like

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Speaker 3: three to thirteen or something like that. The world's changed

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Speaker 3: a little bit, so I didn't I didn't love that.

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Speaker 3: It felt like a lesson that he didn't learn, and

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Speaker 3: he could have tried to keep moving moving forward as

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Speaker 3: a program, keeping new ideas coming in, and that he

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Speaker 3: just kind of brought two old guys in to reinforce

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Speaker 3: what they already had. So that the fact that didn't

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Speaker 3: really work out plenty. They really did improve defensively recently.

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to judge anybody for what they do

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Speaker 3: against Alabama. I mean, that's doesn't feel fair because Alabama

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Speaker 3: is a nearly perfect offense. But the two games before

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Speaker 3: that they both looked good or better, So maybe that

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Speaker 3: works out okay. But when you have an inkling that

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Speaker 3: you don't like a certain higher and then that hire

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Speaker 3: immediately just falls apart completely, it gives you the impression

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Speaker 3: it's not just pure. They lost a bunch of players

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Speaker 3: and they'll be back as soon as they get more experienced.

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Speaker 3: There were some iffy decisions there in the same way

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Speaker 3: that there were really good decisions one, two, three years ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, your Alabama points are really valid one.

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Speaker 1: And it's something Dan and I have grappled with a

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Speaker 1: lot with respect to Texas A and M. Right because

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Speaker 1: A and M's only loss on the year was that

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Speaker 1: drubbing they took at the hands of Alabama. They're currently

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Speaker 1: fifth in the rankings. They're knocking to get another crack

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Speaker 1: at Alabama. This whole notion of who is the next

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Speaker 1: team up outside of that top four to me, again,

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Speaker 1: we hesitate to frame everything within the soul context of

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Speaker 1: the playoff, but who the next team up would be?

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Speaker 1: Who that number four team is to me is the

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Speaker 1: most interesting topic around that point right now. Because A

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Speaker 1: and M's there, but so is Florida. They're going to

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Speaker 1: get their crack at Bama pretty soon. Iowa State is

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Speaker 1: beating down the door. They're going to have a matchup

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Speaker 1: with Oklahoma, which is interesting. Oklahoma is further down in

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Speaker 1: the rankings, but they still kind of are trying to

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Speaker 1: make their case. And then there's a team like Cincinnati, which,

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Speaker 1: I gotta be honest, in a normal year, I think

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Speaker 1: it would be a fairy tale to even consider them

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Speaker 1: as part of this discussion. Rightly or wrongly, that's just

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Speaker 1: the way this thing goes. But my point all along

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Speaker 1: has been, hey, twenty twenty, a lot of weird stuff happened.

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Speaker 1: In any way, they have played really really well this season,

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Speaker 1: and they've had their bouts with cancelations and postponements as well.

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Speaker 1: But have you given much thought to who that next

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Speaker 1: team up is in the event that presumably a Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame or a Clemson drops out and there's another spot.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Unfortunately, like the big Cinderela, scenarios probably required either

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame Clemson or Florida I guess to lose again

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Speaker 3: or in Notre Dames Cleanse to lose the first time,

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Speaker 3: just to kind of open the door, because you can

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Speaker 3: really easily see a scenario even if we assume that

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Speaker 3: Ohios stake gets in, Like Alabama beats Florida, Clemson beats

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame. There you go those of your four, and

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Speaker 3: or Florida beats Alabama, they get in and maybe the

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Speaker 3: Clemson Notre Dame losers now out or whatever. Like you,

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Speaker 3: it's hard to get past Florida in that instance. And

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Speaker 3: you're right, I mean A and M's fifth. But Florida

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Speaker 3: is the only team with the chance at a good

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Speaker 3: win now, and so if they beat Alabama, they'll obviously

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Speaker 3: jump A and M. A and m's only hope really

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Speaker 3: is for what both Florida and Clemson to lose and

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Speaker 3: then nobody else jumps up. I get so mad at

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Speaker 3: the Committee most of the time because it's kind of

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Speaker 3: with my numbers, Like you know, since I get yelled

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Speaker 3: at about my numbers, I'll usually root for whatever they pick,

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Speaker 3: unless I have some other interests just because I like

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Speaker 3: not getting yelled at. But I hate it when something

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Speaker 3: like the Committee makes me yell about Iowa State being overrated,

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Speaker 3: like I love every bit of this Iowa State story,

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Speaker 3: kind of the same way with Indiana, and the Committee

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Speaker 3: now makes me have to stand up and shout that

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Speaker 3: Iowa State has no business being as high as they

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Speaker 3: are in the rankings that it's an absolute joke that

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati's behind them at Iowa State did, after all, lose

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Speaker 3: to Louisiana and they lost to Oklahoma State, which I

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Speaker 3: think the only purpose Oklahoma State has in the rankings

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Speaker 3: right now is to give Iowa State another quality loss.

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Speaker 2: I have no idea how U still ranked either.

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Speaker 3: Another team that I usually say nice things about that

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Speaker 3: they're making me say mean things about now. But I

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Speaker 3: really that's been my biggest issue. I have no idea

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Speaker 3: how Iowa States that high. They they're very good, and

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Speaker 3: predictively they'd be a fifty to fifty draw with Cincinnati

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Speaker 3: right now. But Cincinnati's blown out all but one team

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Speaker 3: on their schedule. The other team is very good in UCF,

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Speaker 3: and they beat them to Iowa Stay lost to Louisiana

395
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Speaker 3: and Oklahoma State. What are we doing in that regard?

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Speaker 3: So I don't see any possible way Cincinnati possibly gets

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Speaker 3: up to even fifth now.

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Speaker 2: And that's I hate that.

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Speaker 3: This is like they've done absolutely everything right and they're

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Speaker 3: still not going to get rewarded for it, and the

401
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Speaker 3: and the you know, the bottom five, the group of

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Speaker 3: five never does.

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Speaker 1: Let's stay in the Big twelve for a second, because

404
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Speaker 1: the storyline I suspect we're going to hear a lot

405
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Speaker 1: more about over the coming days and weeks is Tom

406
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Speaker 1: Herman and Texas. So Tom Herman pre covid took some

407
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Speaker 1: drastic measures to try and retool the team. Texas is

408
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Speaker 1: still in a position where it is not up to

409
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Speaker 1: the levels that I think the Texas fan base, certainly

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Speaker 1: the Texas brass would want it to be. As you

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Speaker 1: look at your numbers, as you try to evaluate what's

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Speaker 1: gone on at Texas, do you have any conclusions what

413
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Speaker 1: has gone on at Texas that needs to go better

414
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Speaker 1: outside of just the standard win loss record. What where's

415
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Speaker 1: the deficiency?

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Speaker 2: Well, defense is the most obvious answer.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 3: A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a thing we

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Speaker 3: just called like the Mulligan Watch. Basically, like, of all

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Speaker 3: the teams that are having disappointed seasons, you know what's

421
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Speaker 3: the most like who are the easiest ones to explain

422
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Speaker 3: and the most likely ones to bounce back and all

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Speaker 3: that stuff, And I just the grouping kind of made

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Speaker 3: Texas stand out because we're talking about LSU getting blown

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Speaker 3: out every week.

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Speaker 2: You know, whatever their record is.

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Speaker 3: Now we're talking about Penn State starting zhe to five,

428
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Speaker 3: Michigan just dreadful seasons, or at least starts to season.

429
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Speaker 3: In Penn State's case, I think they're going to be

430
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Speaker 3: I think they were mostly fine already and now they're

431
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Speaker 3: going to be fine from here on out. But you

432
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Speaker 3: know that we're talking about just drek on the part

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Speaker 3: of how they started, the results they were getting and

434
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 3: all that. And Texas was five and three, you know,

435
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 3: with a tight loss to apparently the best Iowa State

436
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 3: team in one hundred years, with a tight loss to Oklahoma.

437
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 3: Really the only semi unforgivable loss was TCU. So just

438
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 3: including them in the list of underachievers, they were easily

439
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 3: the best underachiever on the list. They're top twenty now

440
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 3: in SP plus, they're six and three. After taking some

441
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 3: anger out on Kansas State. They they have improved wording.

442
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 3: This is tricky, but they've improved a little bit from

443
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 3: where they were. They've absolutely improved from where they were

444
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 3: last couple of years under Mac where they were Charlie Strong.

445
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 3: They just haven't proved enough. And so to me, I

446
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 3: think what I said in that piece and the only

447
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 3: thing I can think to say now is that if

448
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 3: you can get herban Meyer, then sure, get rid of

449
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 3: Tom Herman. But if you're just going to start over again,

450
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: because they only made you a little bit better, and

451
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: it has been kind of a gradual weird results aside

452
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: from twenty eighteen to nineteen, like it has just been kind.

453
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:09,719
Speaker 2: Of a gradual improvement.

454
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 3: If you're going to fire somebody for not improving fast enough,

455
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 3: you better go out and get urban Meyer and Nick Saban, like,

456
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 3: I don't know that he's going to succeed there. And

457
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 3: the defense, the defense has improved a ton this year,

458
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: hasn't improved a ton this year. The offense he pushes

459
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,640
Speaker 3: out Tim Beck after their top ten and offensivesp plus

460
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 3: and now they're not top ten anymore. So that was

461
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 3: a little weird. But they just they're they're not fine,

462
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 3: but they're close to fine. They're not dreadful underachievers like

463
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: some of the other teams we've talked about. So I

464
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 3: would not make a move unless you know you can

465
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 3: get an awesome coach to replace him.

466
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 2: And you can't.

467
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: Back to your point about priors and how they factor

468
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: into calculations, how are you going to factor in priors

469
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: from twenty twenty because you know, Michigan's not had a

470
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 1: good year, Penn States not had a good year. If

471
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 1: we just use those two schools as a means in comparison,

472
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: but that data isn't pure, is it? Like? You have

473
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: to wait that a little differently.

474
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 3: That data is going to have priors in it, and

475
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 3: those priors are going to carry forward into other Yeah,

476
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 3: it's going to be weird. I one thing I'm going

477
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 3: to experiment with, hopefully between well I don't know, there's

478
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: no separation between regular season and bowl seasons. Just hopefully

479
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 3: whatever bowls exist while I'm watching that, I'll experiment just

480
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 3: basically play with previous seasons, look at conference play only

481
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 3: throwing like one like the easiest non conference game for

482
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: the Big twelve teams. Just try to craft a twenty

483
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 3: twenty light schedule for previous seasons where I've got full data,

484
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 3: and just kind of see what the differences are, what

485
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 3: it looks like comparing those two How much of this

486
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 3: weird sample that we get, how much of that is

487
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 3: indicative of what that full number was going to be.

488
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 3: I'm not going to share what that's going to tell me,

489
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 3: but that's something I want to look into. Because I

490
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,959
Speaker 3: really don't know there's a chance. Basically, yea, I come

491
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 3: up with the final s P plus rankings for this year,

492
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 3: and then whatever I end up actually using for next

493
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,479
Speaker 3: year's projections is like internally just completely different based on

494
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 3: whatever I could figure out.

495
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 2: So it is absolutely weird.

496
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 3: Everybody is we should everybody should go to ten game

497
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: conference schedules.

498
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 2: Now, it's so great.

499
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 3: No, no, no, please don't. We've got to have those

500
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 3: connections otherwise this all falls apart.

501
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, we need a baseline. It's it's almost like restarting

502
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: completely for you with the kind of thing that you're doing.

503
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 1: And I fear that, especially for the sp plus ball season,

504
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: is not going to be kind. No because in the

505
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 1: past on our show and people laugh at us, and

506
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: of course it's an unscientific way to pick games, but

507
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 1: there certainly is a factor with some teams going into

508
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: bull season who care and others who are just trying

509
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: to get it over with. And I think the big

510
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 1: difference we've seen this year is we've got teams who

511
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: have formally said we don't care at this point, like

512
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: we're cool. I think it was Boston College earlier today

513
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 1: said yeah, we're cool. We're good. We're just not going

514
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: to play in the Bulls this year. We've seen that

515
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 1: happen in the past on a very limited basis, but

516
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: usually bullseason is supposed to be the crown jewel at

517
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,199
Speaker 1: the end of the college football experience for seniors and

518
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: for underclassmen. It's something that teams really look forward to.

519
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: It means a lot. Right this year, they're like, hell

520
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: with it, we don't want to be here. And even

521
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: the teams that do end up going, I would expect

522
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: there are going to be a lot that fall into

523
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: that category as well, like we are only here because

524
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: they made us come.

525
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 3: I'm hoping that you know, now the Boston College has

526
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 3: cleared the way, like some of those teams that would

527
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 3: probably end up mailing it in just won't play well. Obviously,

528
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: we'll still have some stragglers, but I would hope that

529
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 3: maybe that helps out a little bit in that regard.

530
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 3: But I mean, yeah, and just ball season in general.

531
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 3: Like I was talking about hierarchies within conferences and everything,

532
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,639
Speaker 3: like if SP plus or whoever system you want to

533
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 3: talk about, if it's got a decent rate of that conference,

534
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 3: like here are all the SEC teams, but are they

535
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 3: down here or are they all up here?

536
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: Like where's that line?

537
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 3: It's going to like get every SEC game right, It's

538
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 3: gonna get every SEC game wrong, depending on whether it

539
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 3: kind of has the right read on that hierarchy.

540
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 2: But then like, yeah, like you said, I mean.

541
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 3: The some teams won't care or they'll think they care.

542
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 3: And what often happens is with bulls is they don't

543
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: know they're going to mail it intill they're suddenly down

544
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 3: fourteen nothing five minutes in.

545
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want to be here anymore.

546
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 1: We're done, We're done.

547
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 2: Yeah.

548
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 3: I think everybody when they run out on the field,

549
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 3: they're like, yeah, we're gonna win this game, and then

550
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 3: they find out if they're ready about five minutes in.

551
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 3: But there will be some of that. I just hope

552
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 3: that whatever duds are out there, they're evenly distributed duds

553
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 3: so it doesn't hurt one conference that then turns around

554
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 3: and hurts that conference in next year's projections too.

555
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: What surprises you so far from what you've seen, you know,

556
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 1: maybe take COVID out of it, but yeah, every year

557
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: there are stories that jump up, maybe not as dramatic

558
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: as the Coastal Carolina story. Or the Grayson McCall story.

559
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: But every year they are these things that I'm sure

560
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: as you're sifting through your data, as you're just watching

561
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: college football as a fan, you got those stories that

562
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 1: you really latch onto as feel good stories. I think

563
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: we're all in need of feel good stories in twenty twenty.

564
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 1: What have those been for you?

565
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 2: Yeah?

566
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 3: That was my entire Monday column, was trying to cheer

567
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 3: myself up, Like we're all tired and cranky, so let's

568
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: talk about fun things like BYU Coastal and Iowa State

569
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: in Indiana and all that stuff. You know, from a

570
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 3: pure number standpoint, first, I will say, you know, some

571
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 3: of the bigger surprises number one, I mean BYU and

572
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 3: Cincinnati are still like legit top ten SP plus and

573
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: again we don't know the hierarchy how that plays out,

574
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 3: if I get a better read on the conference power

575
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 3: and all that stuff. But that like, they've been legitimately

576
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 3: awesome and my system didn't really respond all that much

577
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 3: to BAU losing. I think that, you know, I have

578
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 3: that post game win expectancy number where I basically toss

579
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 3: up all the things that eventually go into SPPLUS, all

580
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 3: the predictive stuff and throw them in the air and

581
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,239
Speaker 3: they land, And the number basically says, you know, with

582
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 3: these stats, you could have expected to win this game

583
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 3: x percent of the time. BYU was a sixty two percent.

584
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 3: Basically from an SPPLUS standpoint, it thinks BYU won that

585
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 3: game by three or four points. So it docked them

586
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 3: a little bit for that because they were supposed to

587
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 3: win by like nine, but it didn't react all that

588
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 3: much to it. Cincinnati is legit eighth right now. They've

589
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 3: dominated every team they played except UCF. Like, I think

590
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: they are legitimately awesome, and I don't have as much

591
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 3: proof for that because everything's so weird this year, but

592
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 3: I think those are two of the better non P

593
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 3: five teams of the last since TCU, you know, and

594
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 3: all the in Utah went to P five.

595
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been fun to kind of watch that story develop.

596
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: And how did you account for a game that got

597
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: scheduled and was played seventy two hours later?

598
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 3: I mean, you don't you just say, well, it looks

599
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,239
Speaker 3: like by' is supposed to win this one by whatever that

600
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 3: number was, nine point two or something, and they and

601
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: they don't, And so there you go.

602
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 2: You know.

603
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 3: I mean you started realizing in the first quarter, like

604
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: man of all the teams to agree to play sixty

605
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 3: hours in advance, not being able to study Coastal Carolina

606
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 3: or to the extent that the coaches could, And then

607
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,239
Speaker 3: they're like, hey, they're going to do this and not

608
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 3: really being able to walk through anything or have the

609
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 3: scout team run through it, like that is not the

610
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 3: team you want to play on two like they were

611
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 3: just they got to the edge a lot more than

612
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 3: I thought they would. They wrong foot at BYU a lot.

613
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 3: BYU adjusted in the second half obviously, but still couldn't

614
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 3: quite make enough stops. That was a tremendous game. And

615
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 3: I do think like the lack of prep probably hurt BYU.

616
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 3: But I mean, oh well, Coastal made a heck of

617
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 3: a lot of plays too.

618
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 1: In this being such an asymmetrical year, it's even harder,

619
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: as we've discussed here, to try and figure out who's

620
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: good and who's not good, who's underrated right now? Yeah,

621
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: I don't care if I don't care if that's per

622
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: your sp plus or per the committee's rankings. We've already

623
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 1: talked about Cincinnati, We've talked about Iowa State. What other

624
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: teams are in that same conversation as either being really

625
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: over really really underrated.

626
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: Notre Dame is technically fourth right now, but they are

627
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 3: virtually tied with Oklahoma at fifth. Oklahoma is a very

628
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 3: very good football team right now. Predictively, I'm not saying

629
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 3: I'm not trying to make a playoff case.

630
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 2: They're out. They lost twice, they're out.

631
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 3: But from a predictive standpoint, if they played Notre Dame

632
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 3: tomorrow on a neutral field, that's a straight toss up,

633
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: I think they are in great shape. They obviously getting

634
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 3: Ronnie Perkins, getting those suspended guys back midway through the year.

635
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 3: We kind of forgot that that was part of their

636
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 3: problem early on, and then they show back up and

637
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 3: suddenly they're allowing like fourteen points a game or whatever.

638
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 3: This Rattler is not quite at the you know, the

639
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 3: Baker Kyler et cetera, lovely yet, but he's a red

640
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 3: shirt freshman. He's not throwing picks anymore, not many. He's

641
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 3: doing well. The young receiving core, you can just watch

642
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 3: them and realize what they're going to be next year,

643
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 3: and that's pretty scary and really fun too. So I

644
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 3: think they're a team that, you know, even more than

645
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 3: I always say, whoever wins that game is absolutely a

646
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: team playing at a top five to sixty seven level

647
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 3: right now.

648
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: Even if you know, even if I.

649
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 3: Think they got disqualified from the playoff race with each

650
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 3: of their second losses, they're playing very very well right now.

651
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: Let me go to the ACC for a second. You

652
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 1: mentioned Notre Dame. I won't zero in too much on them,

653
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: but you know, we had a storyline a couple weeks

654
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: ago with Clemson and Florida State with COVID and Dabbo

655
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: and the game being called off, and you know, I'm

656
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: not going to dive into the complexities of that, but

657
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 1: Clemson and Florida State are really interesting to be Clemson

658
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: because they're still sort of on top of the world,

659
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: and I want to get your take on whether or

660
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: not there are any kind of vulnerabilities there that maybe

661
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: didn't exist previously. And on the Florida State side of things,

662
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: I guess I'm just curious to know if we think

663
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 1: they're getting better, if we think they're getting better, because

664
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,719
Speaker 1: they've had to deal with a lot. Mike Norvell in

665
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: the short time that he's been at Tallahassee has had

666
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: to deal with a lot, both on and off the field.

667
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: Take it wherever you want to take it, Bill, But

668
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: are they Are they getting better?

669
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: So we'll start with Florida State. I mean this year

670
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: they're not.

671
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 3: That's okay, Like this, I can't really you know, I'm

672
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: glancing at their little profile here. I mean, the North

673
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 3: Carolina win was fluky. I mean, good for them for

674
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 3: coming out firing and scoring up points early to win

675
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 3: that game, but it was still talking about post game

676
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 3: win expectancy, it was thirty five percent.

677
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 2: North Carolina should have won that game.

678
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 3: Since then, their last three games that postgame win expectancy

679
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 3: number was zero percent, four percent and three percent. Like

680
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 3: they didn't. It wasn't a fluke that they lost by

681
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 3: thirty two to Louisville or twenty four to or to

682
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 3: Pitt or sixteen to NC State. They just got beat

683
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: really bad. So in the in the context of this year, no,

684
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 3: they're absolutely not getting better. They lost some players, you know,

685
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 3: a lot of the a few of their best players

686
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 3: aren't playing right now. So really it's just about like

687
00:33:56,720 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 3: the young guys, you know, can they can novel at

688
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 3: least do well enough to not lose his job in

689
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 3: the next couple of years so that he can bring

690
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 3: in his guys and actually get some semblance of continuity there.

691
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: Their culture is dead.

692
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 3: You know, whatever winning culture they had, it was starting

693
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 3: to crumble them under Jimbo, and you have two coaches

694
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 3: in the three years after that. It's just not going

695
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 3: to survive. And that's what they're dealing with right now. Nobody, nobody,

696
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 3: there's one big at Florida State, and they have to

697
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 3: start that over. So Noarvelle did an amazing job in Memphis.

698
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 3: I you know, I don't make coaching predictions at this

699
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 3: point because every coach that I think is going to

700
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 3: be good fails and everything I don't like does great,

701
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 3: so whatever, but he did really well at his last

702
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 3: couple of jobs. He has decent odds at least of

703
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 3: doing it there.

704
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 2: They just have to.

705
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 3: I mean, they just have to not fire him before,

706
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 3: you know, he has to hit a certain baseline so

707
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 3: he can keep his job long enough. But there that's

708
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 3: a culture issue. They just don't have anybody there that's

709
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 3: one at Florida State. As far as Clempson goes. The

710
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: two issues that I'm concerned about with Clemson and that

711
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 3: most of the for the most part, they're overshadowed by

712
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 3: all the stuff Clemson does obviously well, but they are

713
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 3: giving away big plays. My marginal explosiveness number that I

714
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 3: use for a lot of explosiveness needs, they're ninety second

715
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 3: in marginal explosiveness allowed when they allow good like they're

716
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: you know, they don't allow many successful plays, but the

717
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 3: ones they do are very big. We saw that against

718
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: Notre Dame. We've seen that a few times. It's bitten them. Obviously,

719
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 3: the fun more return touchdowns have also beitten them. That's

720
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 3: not really a sustainable issue, but they have been a

721
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 3: little glitch yer, which I mean after what they lost,

722
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 3: kind of makes sense. Defensive lines a little better this

723
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 3: year than it was last year, so maybe that offsets it.

724
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 3: But they could, you know, against against Alabama, for instance,

725
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,760
Speaker 3: if they can't get to mac Jones, and if anybody

726
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 3: can get to mac Jones, it'll be Clemson. If they can't,

727
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 3: they're probably going to get burned deep a lot. That's

728
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 3: going to be a very push and pull kind of

729
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 3: thing that I'm curious about. The Other thing is, like

730
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,879
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence, his stats versus man defenses, the last couple

731
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 3: of years are very, very mediocre. Even last year when

732
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 3: he had T Higgins and Justin Ross. This year he

733
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 3: hasn't neither obviously, like against you know, he's I don't.

734
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 3: I struggle to frame this in a way that makes

735
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 3: it sound like I'm not just trying to bag on

736
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 3: him or say he's an overrated prospect or anything like that.

737
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 3: But for whatever reason, if you can play man defense

738
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 3: on Clemson, they aren't going to be able to throw

739
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 3: down field very well this year. And it seems to

740
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: me between Alabama and Ohio State at the very least,

741
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 3: maybe Notre Dame two.

742
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: That seems like a problem.

743
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that that Alabama matchup really does I think

744
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 3: come down to Clemson being able to rush mac Jones,

745
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,919
Speaker 3: because if they can't, I think Alabama rolls them.

746
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: So I have two questions, and then I'm going to

747
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: let you go because I know you're a busy guy.

748
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: Is a committee using your numbers? Now, No, they're not.

749
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 3: They proudly defiantly refused to use advancedatz they and I

750
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 3: got to I got to go to the mock committee thing.

751
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 3: And last year in twenty nineteen, you know, and travel

752
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 3: was the thing and got to sit in there and

753
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 3: look at the tools they use. I think it's what

754
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 3: is it coaches by the numbers, I think is what

755
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 3: they use to produce to provide for them, like comparison

756
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 3: stats of your score versus other like resume type stats

757
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 3: they have, like the total yardage stuff, they have, basic

758
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 3: stuff like that. There's nothing that really truly adjusts for opponents,

759
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 3: so that will forever allow them to basically say, well,

760
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 3: those stats are good, but I ain't played nobody next,

761
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 3: you know, like that. They never they never have to

762
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 3: ever take a G five team seriously because they can

763
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 3: always just say, yeah, but who was that against? Even

764
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 3: though we have ways to adjust for that. But that's

765
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's college football.

766
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 2: Always.

767
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 3: We proudly, defiantly refuse to make too much progress. And

768
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 3: that's where we're at there, and and to some extent,

769
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:50,399
Speaker 3: that's part of the charm.

770
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 1: Unless you're on the outside looking in.

771
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's been less charming to me the

772
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 3: last year, the ways we've proudly stuck to all of

773
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 3: our all of our deficiencies.

774
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 2: It's worn a little thin on me this year.

775
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get you out of here. On this. It's

776
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: a question that has come up a couple times now

777
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 1: in our inbox on our Discord server. What have you

778
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: you got one coach to hire for your upstart? Let's

779
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: say you're a mid level FBS school who has impressed

780
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: you to the point that you might give him a

781
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: phone call.

782
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 2: Mid level P five or mid level FBS.

783
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 1: Your mid level P five P five? Okay, what coaches

784
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: are on Bill Connolly ad new ad at school X?

785
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 1: What coaches are on your radar?

786
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, eighties have so much fundraising to do, I would

787
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 2: be so horrible.

788
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 3: We're gonna say, I'm looking at my list of teams

789
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 3: over here to the left, just to make sure I

790
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 3: don't forget anybody. Uh, I want to give a better

791
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 3: answer than Jamie Chadwell, I'm trying because that seems too obvious.

792
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 3: He's now one in a few different schools, different levels.

793
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,320
Speaker 3: I think he would be very good. But oh okay,

794
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 3: well this this allows me to champion a small school

795
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 3: guy too, Like, do we realize how athletic and talented

796
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 3: Buffalo is right now?

797
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: Oh land slide pulled?

798
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 3: Yes, how he's been able to just he basically got

799
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: to burn a foundation like just tear the house down

800
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: to the studs and then just say okay, like that's

801
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 3: that room's fixed. Now, that room's fixed. Now they are

802
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 3: awesome this year. He would need a few years to

803
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 3: get there maybe, but I have no reason to doubt

804
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 3: him at this point.

805
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: All right, good answer. The bulls are always fun to

806
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: watch and he's a good coach. So look, Bill Connolly,

807
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: check him out. Hopefully by now you know of his

808
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 1: fine workover at ESPN dot com. But if you don't

809
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 1: already know, we'll make sure we post some links in

810
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: the show notes here to go on and check out

811
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: Bill's fine work. Of course, brought the sp plus over

812
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: to ESPN and continues to make us on the show sparter.

813
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: We need these numbers to help us along. Bill Connelly,

814
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: thank you so much and hope you and your family

815
00:39:59,080 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: will do well.

816
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: Same to you.

817
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 1: Cool. So there you go. That's Bill Connelly from ESPN.

818
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: It's been a friend of this show for as long

819
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: as we've had it. Always love catching up with Bill

820
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 1: picking his brain on what's going on in the SMP universe,

821
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: how he's watching college football. Twenty twenty obviously a challenging

822
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: year for everybody, but appreciate his perspective. Don't forget. As

823
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: you're out and about here in early December doing whatever

824
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 1: it is that you can do right now, don't forget

825
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 1: to check out the College Football Blitz, courtesy of our

826
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 1: friends over at Learfield IMG College. Fifty six minutes of

827
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: actual play by play coverage per hour. They do the

828
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: show all day long, but it's like college football's red zone.

829
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: They'll take inside local announcing booze so that you can

830
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: actually get the flair for what's going on from the

831
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 1: fan from the school's perspective. College Football Blitz look forward

832
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: on Serious Channel eighty four or also through tune in

833
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 1: by going to College Sports Now. That does it, folks.

834
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 1: We are going to continue a special edition of this

835
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 1: week's Bruin A. We're going to do a live call

836
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: with all of our Patreon subscribers here in just a

837
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: little bit. But as always, appreciate you downloading, appreciate you listening,

838
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 1: Give us a call if you're watching games four eight,

839
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 1: Verbal one is reverblind. We'll cut that together on Sunday,

840
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: But in the meantime, I gotta go prep for this call.

841
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 1: We will talk to you all soon. In the meantime,

842
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: stay solid,