1
00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:05,160
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

2
00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:10,440
Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All Right, here we go.

3
00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:12,840
Speaker 2: We're growing in so.

4
00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,079
Speaker 1: We're sitting us to catch touch down.

5
00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,920
Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

6
00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:25,800
Speaker 2: go to win. God, that's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks,

7
00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:26,880
Speaker 2: I like to make money.

8
00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,880
Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabak.

9
00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:30,680
Speaker 2: You want to pull.

10
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,159
Speaker 3: And we are underway.

11
00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,960
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the NFL Divisional Round Fantasy

12
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,159
Speaker 1: Flex on the Action Network Podcast. I'm Atthew Freeman, the

13
00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,400
Speaker 1: editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, part of the Action Network.

14
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,559
Speaker 1: In this episode, we're breaking down the players at the

15
00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,240
Speaker 1: top of our rankings, which are available at Action network

16
00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,560
Speaker 1: dot com slash fantasy. We are discussing the guys who

17
00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:56,720
Speaker 1: are high and low on and we're speculating on some

18
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,560
Speaker 1: player props. With me as always are Shawn Corner and

19
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,480
Speaker 1: Chris Rayon. Shawn is our director of predictive Analytics and

20
00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,800
Speaker 1: one of the top end season fantasy football rankers for

21
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,240
Speaker 1: the past half decade, and Chris is a senior editor

22
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,320
Speaker 1: at analyst at the Action networked and a co host

23
00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,360
Speaker 1: the Action Network show on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio Gentleman,

24
00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,680
Speaker 1: I was a wild card weekend for you guys.

25
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,520
Speaker 2: It was pretty good aside from well two things like one,

26
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,040
Speaker 2: I just had a terrible bad beat in the Patriots game,

27
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:25,840
Speaker 2: where like Julian Edeman dropped essentially all my money. I

28
00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:28,479
Speaker 2: wanted to go like contrarian with Jordan Howard in some lineups.

29
00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,280
Speaker 2: Obviously didn't work out. He didn't play as far as

30
00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,440
Speaker 2: I saw I did. I did pretty good, you know,

31
00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:34,920
Speaker 2: in a lot of showdown states because I had a

32
00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,680
Speaker 2: lot of key guys, I know, like Anthony Firks there.

33
00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:40,120
Speaker 2: He was popping in our models Casom Hill obviously. So

34
00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,600
Speaker 2: overall it was actually a pretty pretty good weekend. Close

35
00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,000
Speaker 2: it strong. I think I went like eight eight to

36
00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,440
Speaker 2: zero one the Seahawks game, six and one props, so

37
00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 2: felt good. But I would have wished that Patriots again

38
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 2: t around a little bit different.

39
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was something of a mixed week for me.

40
00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:59,160
Speaker 1: I think I ended up about break even in embedding

41
00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,640
Speaker 1: in props. But I had closing line value on like

42
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 1: all of my bets and almost all of them win

43
00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:10,320
Speaker 1: against me, which was just so tilting, so you know, whatever,

44
00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,840
Speaker 1: So much for closing line value. But Sean how did

45
00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:14,320
Speaker 1: go for you.

46
00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it went well. I was talking with you guys

47
00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,400
Speaker 3: before we came on some a specific site was accidentally

48
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,520
Speaker 3: letting me bet way over my typical maxim player prop.

49
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,079
Speaker 3: So I cleaned up. I went eight and one, and

50
00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,560
Speaker 3: I posted bets in the app, but I was making

51
00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,120
Speaker 3: a ton of live bets that like, you know, I

52
00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,360
Speaker 3: don't feel like posting in our app because they changed

53
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 3: so quickly. But I hit on a few of those. Two. Overall,

54
00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:39,560
Speaker 3: just a great week, and I love being able to

55
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,160
Speaker 3: focus on just a handful of games as opposed to

56
00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,160
Speaker 3: like sixteen. So this is just a great time of year.

57
00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,120
Speaker 3: You know, four games is like ideal for me. Once

58
00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:50,560
Speaker 3: we get down to two, I'm going to feel like

59
00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,920
Speaker 3: I'm missing something. But I love this time. Here. We

60
00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,840
Speaker 3: get four games, four high you know, high stakes games.

61
00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:00,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's get into those games. We're going to

62
00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,640
Speaker 1: run through our rankings and let's start with quarterback, the

63
00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,360
Speaker 1: three guys at the top. And I should say like this,

64
00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 1: before we started the show, I was looking through the

65
00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,240
Speaker 1: rankings to kind of compare, and there's a lot of

66
00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,240
Speaker 1: uniformity for us, and I think that's that's just kind

67
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,240
Speaker 1: of what happens when you start to have four games

68
00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,640
Speaker 1: and like players you're familiar with at this point. But

69
00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,440
Speaker 1: at the top of our rankings we have Lamar Jackson

70
00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:28,360
Speaker 1: versus Tennessee, Patrick Mahomes versus Houston, and Shawn Watson on

71
00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 1: the road playing in Kansas City. Sean, who are you

72
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,720
Speaker 1: relatively high on this week?

73
00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:36,960
Speaker 3: Well, first off, I think you hit the nail on

74
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,280
Speaker 3: the head. You know, typically before we do this, I

75
00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,640
Speaker 3: load on the DK prices against my projections, and you know,

76
00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,680
Speaker 3: I have it color coded and projected prices and whatnot,

77
00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,960
Speaker 3: And the DK pricing this week is like exactly in

78
00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,760
Speaker 3: line with what I had, pretty crazy, So pricing is

79
00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:55,080
Speaker 3: extremely tight at QB. I think we agree basically on

80
00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,600
Speaker 3: the exact order of QB, so it's gonna be tough

81
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,560
Speaker 3: this week. But the one QB that sticks out that

82
00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,040
Speaker 3: I think is just a little too cheap is Jimmy Garoppolo.

83
00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,600
Speaker 3: You know, this is a four game slate, so I'm

84
00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,960
Speaker 3: basically only focusing on GVPS and he's not really the

85
00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,160
Speaker 3: high ceiling guy you want, but I think for him,

86
00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,960
Speaker 3: I think having him in some game stacks makes a

87
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,200
Speaker 3: ton of sense, you know. The I believe the Vikings

88
00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,600
Speaker 3: Niners total is the lowest right now at forty five,

89
00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,480
Speaker 3: but I think people look too much into that. Right now,

90
00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,640
Speaker 3: all the totals are basically between forty five and fifty,

91
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,279
Speaker 3: and you know even those aren't you know, gospel. There's

92
00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,440
Speaker 3: gonna be a wide range of outcomes, so this game

93
00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,279
Speaker 3: could end up being the high scoring. So I think

94
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,760
Speaker 3: with Jimmy G, some game stacks makes sense that the

95
00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,479
Speaker 3: only really way he'll hit his ceiling is if the

96
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,200
Speaker 3: Vikings put up points too. So I think he could

97
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:46,000
Speaker 3: do some Jimmy G, Deebo Samuel George Kittle and send

98
00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 3: it back with Stefan Diggs type stacks. So I think

99
00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,839
Speaker 3: with him, you have to be smart, but I'll probably

100
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,880
Speaker 3: be over exposed on him this week just based on

101
00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,480
Speaker 3: his price, and I think some game stacks there may

102
00:04:58,839 --> 00:04:59,560
Speaker 3: make sense here.

103
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, So to put some context on this, one through five,

104
00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,000
Speaker 1: all three of us have ranked exactly the same way,

105
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,479
Speaker 1: and I'm the lowest. On Garoppolo, I have him eight,

106
00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,000
Speaker 1: But it's not as if there's a big difference between

107
00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,080
Speaker 1: where I have him at number eight and probably where

108
00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,839
Speaker 1: you have him at number six. Like what's separating six

109
00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,240
Speaker 1: through eight is a very minuscule number of points. So

110
00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:25,480
Speaker 1: you know, it's the kind of thing where I'm relatively

111
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,279
Speaker 1: low on Garoppolo, but I don't feel as if I'm

112
00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,400
Speaker 1: really like all that low on Garoppolo. It's just sort

113
00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:33,640
Speaker 1: of like a function of where we are at this

114
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,800
Speaker 1: point in the season. Chris, who are you relatively high on?

115
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,800
Speaker 2: For me, it's it's Deshaan Watson because when you look

116
00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,080
Speaker 2: at his where he's priced, he's the third highest quarterback

117
00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 2: at DraftKings. He's six point seven k and that's you know,

118
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,520
Speaker 2: Mahomes is seventy five hundred, Lamar's eighty four hundred. So

119
00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,400
Speaker 2: when you look at Watson, he's really I think the

120
00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,960
Speaker 2: only quarterback that truly has or not the only quarter

121
00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,520
Speaker 2: but I think he has the best shot of kind

122
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,400
Speaker 2: of matching or exceeding, you know, the a ceiling game

123
00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,719
Speaker 2: from a Mahomes or a Jackson, you know, Russell Wilson.

124
00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,200
Speaker 2: I just think the offensive lines is too maligned in

125
00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,240
Speaker 2: Green Bay. They kind of play they're a little more

126
00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,120
Speaker 2: run heavy these days and whatnot. So I think I

127
00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 2: think Watson in a game where the over under, you know,

128
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,440
Speaker 2: it's kind of shot up a little bit, you know

129
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,160
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, you know, Andy Reid, with time to prepare,

130
00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,479
Speaker 2: I think that's great for their offense. And the Texas

131
00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,880
Speaker 2: tend to start game slow, which is not great for Watson,

132
00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,560
Speaker 2: but it also leads to kind of a lot, like

133
00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 2: a lot of just him running around and doing his

134
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,480
Speaker 2: thing later on in the game. And he ended up

135
00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,560
Speaker 2: with pretty decent numbers against the Bills after a terrible start.

136
00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:44,720
Speaker 2: And then you look at splits with Will Fuller, as

137
00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,279
Speaker 2: I'm sure we've you know, always talk about anytime Fuller

138
00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:52,400
Speaker 2: looks like he's going to play. Since twenty seventeen, Watson

139
00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:56,000
Speaker 2: with Fuller he averages eight point seven yards per attempt,

140
00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 2: two point three touchdowns per game, passing in two hundred

141
00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:03,320
Speaker 2: seventy six passing yards, and then without Fuller just seven

142
00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,560
Speaker 2: point two six yards per attempt, just two hundred and

143
00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,600
Speaker 2: twenty seven yards per game, and only one point three

144
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,720
Speaker 2: passing touchdowns per game, which that is kind of nuts

145
00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:14,880
Speaker 2: when you think of to Shaun Watson, because the rushing

146
00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,440
Speaker 2: touchdowns only go up by about point one two when

147
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:22,840
Speaker 2: when Fuller's out, So Watson just accounting for a ton

148
00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,120
Speaker 2: less of in terms of touchdowns when Fuller is out

149
00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,160
Speaker 2: of the game. So I think I think Watson is

150
00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:30,960
Speaker 2: the guy for me who I'm gonna probably be a

151
00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,200
Speaker 2: little bit over exposed to.

152
00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,560
Speaker 1: So the guy I really like is Mahomes. And uh,

153
00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:39,840
Speaker 1: I mean I part of me just almost to be

154
00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 1: contrary and wanted to put him number one, but uh,

155
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,440
Speaker 1: you know I couldn't. I couldn't do it. Got to

156
00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,000
Speaker 1: respect the MVP. But uh, you know, Mahomes when he's

157
00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,800
Speaker 1: been healthy and when he's had Tyreek Hill healthy, like

158
00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,240
Speaker 1: when that offense has been fully functional and now you know,

159
00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:57,760
Speaker 1: Damian Williams is healthy, like that offense is at full capacity,

160
00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,440
Speaker 1: and they're coming off of the buy. We know Andy

161
00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,960
Speaker 1: Reid is master of you know, off the bye week.

162
00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,080
Speaker 1: So I think it's a good situation. And this is

163
00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,760
Speaker 1: the only game on the slate in which the total

164
00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:13,240
Speaker 1: has moved up, and it's moved up significantly from forty

165
00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,600
Speaker 1: nine to fifty one. Uh And so I think, you know,

166
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,520
Speaker 1: if I had to pick one game on the slate

167
00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,640
Speaker 1: to be the shootout, even though I'm betting the under,

168
00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:24,560
Speaker 1: which terrifies me.

169
00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 2: How much for your line value?

170
00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,559
Speaker 1: I know this is Yeah, I'm not getting line value

171
00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 1: on this one. You know, Like this is this is

172
00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,120
Speaker 1: the one game where like the market is clearly indicating

173
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 1: that it's expecting a shootout, and uh, you know, I

174
00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:44,920
Speaker 1: like Watson, I like Jackson, but Mahomes I think has

175
00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:49,240
Speaker 1: has a ceiling that is obviously equal to what those

176
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,720
Speaker 1: guys provide. And then he has the matchup going against

177
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,040
Speaker 1: Houston and Tyreek Hill is you know, at this point

178
00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,520
Speaker 1: playing primarily in the slot, and he's going against Vernon Hargraves,

179
00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,959
Speaker 1: which is just like the best matchup that almost any

180
00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 1: wide receiver is going to have at any point this year.

181
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,320
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I mean, like on his own,

182
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,719
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill could maybe give like two hundred yards in

183
00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 1: two touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes. So I like Mahomes quite

184
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,600
Speaker 1: a bit, even though we all have him ranked number two.

185
00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,440
Speaker 1: I like what he has the potential to do this weekend.

186
00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,679
Speaker 2: You know, looking at that that last Chiefs Texans game

187
00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 2: where the Texans pulled off the upset on a road

188
00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,360
Speaker 2: thirty one to twenty four, I think that was a

189
00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,400
Speaker 2: game where it was a game after Mahomes got banged

190
00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,880
Speaker 2: up against Indianapolis, So I'm not sure exactly where his

191
00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:36,200
Speaker 2: health was at, But if you look at that game,

192
00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,640
Speaker 2: it's pretty nuts if you look at the drive breakdown

193
00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,560
Speaker 2: because the Texans did not pump the football once in

194
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,240
Speaker 2: that game. They missed a field goal, they had two picks,

195
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,600
Speaker 2: and they lost a fumble. That was how their non

196
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,840
Speaker 2: scoring drives ended then and then one at the end

197
00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,160
Speaker 2: of the game where they ended the game. And then

198
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,880
Speaker 2: the Chiefs they only punted twice all game and it

199
00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:01,040
Speaker 2: was their last two possessions. So this game, you know,

200
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,520
Speaker 2: especially with if Watson gets fuller back and with Read

201
00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,840
Speaker 2: with time to prepare, I mean, this could be a shootout.

202
00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:10,880
Speaker 2: Like I know, it's kind of chalky to say that

203
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,320
Speaker 2: when you have two good, great quarterbacks, but I mean,

204
00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,160
Speaker 2: you know, just looking at that game, I mean it

205
00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 2: kind of stands out the fact that, you know, two

206
00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,319
Speaker 2: punts between between the teams all game long.

207
00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, So okay, I mentioned Garoppolo is a guy I'm

208
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:24,439
Speaker 1: relatively down on.

209
00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:25,000
Speaker 2: You know.

210
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,320
Speaker 1: Part of it is just I think it will be

211
00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,439
Speaker 1: a run heavy type of game for the forty nine ers.

212
00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,000
Speaker 1: I think that's really where they distinguish themselves on offense

213
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,560
Speaker 1: and where their most inventive. Garoppolo could have a good game,

214
00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,360
Speaker 1: But just looking at the slate He's the guy that

215
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:45,240
Speaker 1: I I kind of feel the most uncertain about, so

216
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,080
Speaker 1: I'm lower on him. Sean, who are you relatively low on?

217
00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,520
Speaker 3: So I wouldn't say I'm relatively low on him because

218
00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,840
Speaker 3: I have rate number one. But Lamar Jackson, I think

219
00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:58,600
Speaker 3: because of the same reasons you guys have mentioned. I

220
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,240
Speaker 3: think the gap between him and Mahomes is a lot

221
00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,840
Speaker 3: closer than people might realize. And Mahomes is about one

222
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:08,800
Speaker 3: thousand dollars cheaper on DK, so I'll probably have way

223
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,040
Speaker 3: more exposure to Mahomes than Lamar. So I guess by

224
00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 3: default I'm lower on Lamar. And also, you know slate

225
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,559
Speaker 3: like this with four games, you know, I like Mahomes

226
00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,880
Speaker 3: because he has more stack ability. You know, you could

227
00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,679
Speaker 3: use Tarry Kill, Travis Kelcey obviously, even Sammy Watkins, which

228
00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,320
Speaker 3: I'll mention later. But Lamar, he's just he's a little

229
00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,880
Speaker 3: bit tougher to stack with. So I just I just

230
00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,559
Speaker 3: like the leverage you can have with Mahomes, who probably

231
00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,280
Speaker 3: lower owned, and he has he has the upside, we

232
00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,640
Speaker 3: haven't seen it lately. I think the week off will

233
00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:41,200
Speaker 3: definitely help him come over. He had the hand injury,

234
00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,240
Speaker 3: He's dealt with me and ankle injuries all year, so

235
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,760
Speaker 3: I think the week off will help and hopefully we'll

236
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,480
Speaker 3: see more of a ceiling game from this week. But

237
00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,080
Speaker 3: it's been long overdue and I think he'll be under

238
00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:52,960
Speaker 3: owned because of it.

239
00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:54,079
Speaker 1: Raymond, what about you?

240
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, So for me, it's Kirk Cousins. And you know,

241
00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,440
Speaker 2: I'm working on a piece for Action Network dot Com

242
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:07,240
Speaker 2: right now where essentially the divisional round quarterback confidence ratings,

243
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:08,800
Speaker 2: and it's just kind of it's kind of a fun piece,

244
00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:10,240
Speaker 2: but I'm looking at a lot of real data is

245
00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,360
Speaker 2: to just you know, these quarterbacks wind up affecting the

246
00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:15,800
Speaker 2: games and the spreads and how confident we should be,

247
00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,320
Speaker 2: you know, kind of ice just kind of isolating them

248
00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 2: from the situation and looking at how they've played both

249
00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,200
Speaker 2: historically and this year. And when it comes to Cousins,

250
00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,760
Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill, I figured was gonna end up being like

251
00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,400
Speaker 2: the lowest ranked guy, but like Kirk Cousins has a

252
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,559
Speaker 2: real like argument to be the quarterback we're the least confident.

253
00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:35,800
Speaker 2: And I mean when you look at the San Francisco

254
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,680
Speaker 2: forty nine ers defense, you know they had some issues

255
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,240
Speaker 2: with health, but it looks like they're getting Kawant Alexander back,

256
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,679
Speaker 2: you know, Sherman d Ford, chance to get healthy guys

257
00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,280
Speaker 2: like that. We'll see about Tart and those guys. But

258
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,600
Speaker 2: this defense is the only defense that allowed fewer net

259
00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,520
Speaker 2: yards per pass. So that's once you account for sackyard

260
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,599
Speaker 2: is loss fewer netyards per past attempt than the Patriots.

261
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,600
Speaker 2: They allowed only four point eight net yards per pass.

262
00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,880
Speaker 2: And then I was looking at just how each quarterback

263
00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,719
Speaker 2: has fared against winning teams this year, against you know,

264
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,720
Speaker 2: teams above five hundred, because that's obviously, you know, key

265
00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. A lot of times quarterbacks, you know,

266
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,760
Speaker 2: different kind of game scripts tend to skew their performance

267
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,480
Speaker 2: of their numbers or whatever not. And and Cousins in

268
00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,840
Speaker 2: the Vikings really the only team that has doesn't have

269
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,319
Speaker 2: a winning record or even a five hundred record versus

270
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 2: winning teams or two and four straight up two and

271
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,040
Speaker 2: four against the spread. So you know, I hats off

272
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 2: to Cousins and the Vikes for what they did last week.

273
00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,040
Speaker 2: But man, I think it's really it's really going to

274
00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,160
Speaker 2: be a tough spot this week for him. And the

275
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,520
Speaker 2: reason I go with him as a guy I'm low

276
00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,240
Speaker 2: on over Garoppolo is because I do think that, you know,

277
00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,240
Speaker 2: going against Mike Zimmer defense will always be really difficult.

278
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,080
Speaker 2: I think the last time he went against him one

279
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,440
Speaker 2: one touchdown, three picks in Week one of last season.

280
00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:55,640
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, he also has

281
00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,560
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan and that you know, if there's somebody that

282
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,840
Speaker 2: can kind of match Mike Zimmers win on defense, especially

283
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,680
Speaker 2: with the extra week to prepare. I think Kyle shanahanal

284
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,200
Speaker 2: has some tricks up a sleep and whether it's you know,

285
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,559
Speaker 2: some type of trick plays to debo or you know,

286
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:13,079
Speaker 2: getting Sanders loose against Xavier Rhads and that banged up secondary.

287
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,559
Speaker 2: I think the I think the forty nine ers, I

288
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:17,080
Speaker 2: agree with Sean. I think they have a little more

289
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,600
Speaker 2: upside in the passing game, whereas I think Cousins. I mean,

290
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,480
Speaker 2: he's a guy that I could just see completely just

291
00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:24,920
Speaker 2: shiitting the bed.

292
00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:27,000
Speaker 3: I'm right there with you. If you look at our

293
00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,880
Speaker 3: last malls right now, he's the only QB with a

294
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,880
Speaker 3: negative plus minus and it's like by a landslide because

295
00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,480
Speaker 3: I have him, I have so I have him ranked

296
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 3: last obviously in Tannehill second to last night, I have

297
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 3: Cousins a point below Tannehill, So there's he's sort of

298
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:42,880
Speaker 3: in his own tier dome.

299
00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Like I'm sure that's like, that's that's how

300
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 2: Minnesota might be feeling as far as contract after this

301
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,840
Speaker 2: game is like ah plus minus just terrible. I mean

302
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,040
Speaker 2: because remember they they got this far with case Keenum,

303
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 2: you know, a couple of years ago. So you know,

304
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,880
Speaker 2: like I'm I'm not feeling Cousins this week. I'll say that.

305
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 1: All right, Sean, You're going to give us the prop

306
00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,120
Speaker 1: for the quarterback position. Everyone should be sure to check

307
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 1: out the Fantasy Lapse prop tool, which since last season

308
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,720
Speaker 1: has had a sixty percent win rate on the props

309
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,280
Speaker 1: with a bet quality of ten. Sean, what is the

310
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:16,840
Speaker 1: quarterback prop for this week?

311
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:21,920
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with Lamar Jackson rushing yards against Tennessee.

312
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 3: This is, you know, the most critical QB stat to

313
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,280
Speaker 3: project weekend and week out, and I have it right

314
00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,080
Speaker 3: now at sixty seven and a half over.

315
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 2: Over. He's going, this is the most important game of

316
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 2: the year. He's gonna put it on the line. You know,

317
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:38,880
Speaker 2: this is a game where I think both of these

318
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 2: teams are gonna want to run the football, so I expect,

319
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,840
Speaker 2: you know, him to be completely unleashed. I have him

320
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,320
Speaker 2: at seventy three, and I think we've kind of seen

321
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,080
Speaker 2: that in these playoffs where whether it's running backs or

322
00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 2: just quarterbacks that can run, you're going to kind of

323
00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,640
Speaker 2: use that to your advantage, you know, in the regular season.

324
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 2: You know, for example, I think we saw Russell Wilson

325
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 2: not really run as much over the last few games,

326
00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,960
Speaker 2: and I think he beat his rushing prop. I'm like,

327
00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:04,200
Speaker 2: first his first carry. Yeah, so Josh Allen, right right, right,

328
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,000
Speaker 2: So if you know, I think that these are the

329
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,520
Speaker 2: kind of games where you know, the competition is going

330
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 2: to be tight, the schemes are going to be very focused.

331
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,080
Speaker 2: There's gonna be like almar if it comes down, for example,

332
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,200
Speaker 2: him going out of bounds or him kind of trying

333
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:17,760
Speaker 2: to juke and pick up an extra five or ten

334
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,280
Speaker 2: yards or something like that. I think this is the

335
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,240
Speaker 2: type of game where he goes for those extra yards.

336
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have him about about six yards.

337
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,280
Speaker 3: I could yea, I could see sportsbooks offering something closer

338
00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 3: what you said in like seventy three. I typically stay

339
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:31,400
Speaker 3: away from his rushing propt's it's too volatile.

340
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:33,920
Speaker 1: Like, my heart wants to take the over on this,

341
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 1: but we're sort of flanking you on this. I have

342
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,600
Speaker 1: like sixty two point five is my projection, but I

343
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 1: mean I have no confidence, yes at all.

344
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:45,280
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying.

345
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,480
Speaker 1: One thing that I think might work in the favor

346
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 1: of the under, and I would need to go back

347
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 1: and look at this, But because they are such big

348
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,840
Speaker 1: favorites that maybe they get in a situation where Lamar

349
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,920
Speaker 1: doesn't need to like drop back as often and then

350
00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 1: doesn't scramble as often. And you know, if they're if

351
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: they have a big lead, they just are satisfied by

352
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,679
Speaker 1: handing the ball off to Ingram and to Edwards in

353
00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 1: Justice Hill and letting them pick up the yards on

354
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 1: the ground instead of having Lamar do it. But I mean,

355
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 1: it's just it's really hard to gauge anything with this prop.

356
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,480
Speaker 1: I would like sean your feedback on this. I was

357
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,160
Speaker 1: talking with Revel on the Serious XM Show today and

358
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 1: for his fade Revel prop this week, he's doing over

359
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 1: under point five Lamar Jackson rushing touchdowns, so he's taking

360
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,360
Speaker 1: the under. Where are you on that? Yeah?

361
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:40,399
Speaker 3: I would say under what should be fifty five to

362
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 3: sixty percent likely. Yeah, I haven't projected for zero point

363
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,640
Speaker 3: four to one, and that, like a touchdown distribution isn't

364
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,679
Speaker 3: a normal one, so I think that that would imply

365
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,399
Speaker 3: around fifty five to sixty percent under So I like

366
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:54,160
Speaker 3: it all right.

367
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,160
Speaker 1: Let's get to the running backs. The top three players

368
00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 1: in our rankings Aaron Jones versus Seattle, Dalvin Cook at

369
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:07,080
Speaker 1: San Francisco, and Derrick Henry at Baltimore Sean. Who do

370
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:07,439
Speaker 1: you like?

371
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 3: So? I like Aaron Jones. I actually have him, you know,

372
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 3: the highest projected points for DK and he's the third

373
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 3: most expensive. I think he'll be pretty chalky. But the

374
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,440
Speaker 3: guys I like are in the six k range, specifically

375
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,679
Speaker 3: Damian Williams and Raheem Mosert. With Damian Williams, you know,

376
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,879
Speaker 3: the Casey backfield has been a night me hurt for

377
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 3: us all year to project, but that's been the Damian

378
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 3: Williams being hurt. So I think now that he's back,

379
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 3: it's given this backfield more stability. I mean, he went

380
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 3: bonkers the last two weeks, and I think the week

381
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 3: off might you know, limit his ownership a little bit.

382
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 3: So I don't think he's gonna be extremely Chalky, so

383
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 3: I love him in the spot. I don't think he's

384
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 3: gonna be six k next week. I think I could

385
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 3: see him being closer to seven K if he goes

386
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 3: off here. So I love him. And then Raheem Mosert

387
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,720
Speaker 3: you mentioned earlier. I definitely see this being more of

388
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: a run heavy game. And you know he was pretty

389
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,199
Speaker 3: much given the number one role back in week thirteen.

390
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 3: He really hasn't done anything to lose that, so I

391
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 3: could see him getting fifteen and twenty touches here. I

392
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 3: would probably stacked him with the forty nine ers defense.

393
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,160
Speaker 3: I would think that would be sort of the game

394
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 3: script where he would go off. We still haven't really

395
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 3: seen him use in the past game much, but I

396
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 3: think he ran around on fifty percent of the drop

397
00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 3: back so there is some potential for at least a

398
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:29,239
Speaker 3: couple grabs there. But at fifty eight hundred again on

399
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 3: this slate, I think this is sort of the sweet spot,

400
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 3: this six K range at running back and then spend

401
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 3: up at receiver and tight end Raylon.

402
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: What about you? Who do you like? Yeah?

403
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 2: For me, it's it's Damian Williams. Clearly you know a

404
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 2: guy who Andy Reid wants to feature in his batfield.

405
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 2: It looked like, you know, coming down a stretch. You know,

406
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 2: we thought, maybe, you know, Sean McCoy, they were just

407
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 2: kind of saving him. But like they still played in

408
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,639
Speaker 2: some pretty important games down a stretch and McCoy was

409
00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 2: either scratched or or just didn't really play at all.

410
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: So I think Williams when you look at his carry

411
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 2: shares in the in the last few games that that

412
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: he's been not hurt. You know, he seventy five percent

413
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 2: the last game, sixty one point five percent in the

414
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 2: game before that, and then he got hurt, you know,

415
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 2: in the game before that. But then the two games

416
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 2: before that he was at eighty six percent and seventy

417
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 2: five percent of the backfield carries. And we saw that

418
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: play out in the playoffs last season as well, where

419
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 2: I think Damian Williams he was kind of hovering in

420
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 2: at you know, ten to thirteen carry range in his

421
00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 2: starts during the regular season and then we were kind of, okay,

422
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 2: you know, how is it going to split out against

423
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 2: the I think it was the Colts they played, and

424
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,160
Speaker 2: Damian Williams pretty much got twenty six carriers or something

425
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 2: like that, and almost all of the work, So I

426
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:44,480
Speaker 2: really like him. And then and then you factor in

427
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 2: Sean you kind of mentioned Mahomes and stacking him. You

428
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 2: could even go with Watkins. I think you could also

429
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 2: go with Williams. I think you could stack. You know,

430
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: Williams a really good pass catching back. The Houston Texans

431
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 2: allowed the fourth most receptions to opposing running backs this season.

432
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 2: Ended up betting the over on Devin Singletary's reception prop.

433
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 2: I think it was a two and a half last week,

434
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: and I'll probably be looking to do the same with

435
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: Williams here because I think Andy Reeves just a really

436
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 2: great schemer at getting running backs to football, and I

437
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 2: think he's going to be heavily utilized in the past

438
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: game in this particular match up.

439
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,479
Speaker 1: All Right, the guy I'm relatively high on is Derrick Henry,

440
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: and I don't want to be kind of suffering from

441
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 1: recency bias in terms of what he did last week,

442
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 1: but he's basically since Week fourteen of last year, he's

443
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 1: been a pretty dominant runner. And I think if there's

444
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 1: a way that you attack the Ravens, it has to

445
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 1: be on the ground because they are so strong at

446
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 1: the cornerback position, right now, and I think what the

447
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: Titans did last week against the Patriots, not that they're

448
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 1: going to be able to replicate it because the Ravens

449
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: are going to score points. But I still think even

450
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 1: if the Titans are down by ten thirteen points, They're

451
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 1: still going to be running the ball instead of throwing it.

452
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 1: So even if they get into what would normally be

453
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 1: a pass heavy game script, they would still with a

454
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 1: lot of obstinates decide to run the ball. So I'm

455
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: still relatively high on Henry, especially considering that he is

456
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 1: a pretty big road dog, which is like the worst

457
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 1: scenario in which you would want to roster someone, and

458
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: Henry has negative splits, so as a road dog normally

459
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 1: is it the best situation to roster him anyway, But

460
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 1: it worked out last week, and I just think they're

461
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 1: going to be running the ball as much as they can,

462
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 1: and even beyond reason, they will continue to run Sean

463
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 1: who are you relatively low on?

464
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 3: So the guy I'm going to have pretty limited exposure

465
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 3: to is Dalvin Cook at eight K I think he'll

466
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 3: be I think Derrick Henry will probably the highest on

467
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,479
Speaker 3: running back and Dalvin Cook might be the second highest.

468
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: And ak I just like some of the cheaper options

469
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 3: at running back. So he's just not fitting into my

470
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 3: roster construction. You know, he looked one hundred percent last week.

471
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 3: People are going to be all over him. But you know,

472
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 3: I could see this matchup the Vikings getting comeback mode

473
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 3: and the definitely on Cousins more or something. So I

474
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 3: just I don't love him at this price, and it's

475
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 3: just a matter of you have to fade someone. And

476
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: I think of all the expensive guys, I'll probably have

477
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 3: the least exposure on him just to have some sort

478
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 3: of leverage on on a four game slate. So, like

479
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 3: I said, I all have a lot of Aaron Jones,

480
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 3: Damian Williams, Raheem Mozart and it kind of just leaves

481
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: sort of a void in Dalvin Cook.

482
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: Raymond. He must be extremely insulted that one of the

483
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 1: guys you're high on Sean is low on.

484
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 3: It's fun for different reasons. It's like, I don't have

485
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 3: anything bad to say about Dalvin Cook. It's more just

486
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 3: like he's not fitting into my lineups right now.

487
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do agree. I think on DraftKings Cook is

488
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 2: you know, just based on the pricing, it makes more

489
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 2: sense there to fade them. But I look, I was

490
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 2: looking on FANDUL and Cook is actually we eight K

491
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 2: and so that's where I like, I actually wrote it.

492
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 2: That's where I like Cook is on FanDuel when he's

493
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 2: the third most expensive bat, because I think that is

494
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: a value. I actually do have him number one, and

495
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: the reason being is because I think that again, I

496
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: think Cousins is going to struggle. But we saw you know,

497
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 2: twenty eight carries in the backfield last week, Madison five

498
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: and doing hand one each. So I do think that

499
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 2: the Vikings are going to try to run it as

500
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: much as they can, and I think that if they

501
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: get down you know, San Francisco has been so good

502
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 2: against wide receivers you know, this season, and they're getting

503
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 2: healthier on the back end, and they've also been you know,

504
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 2: they have been good against the tight end as well.

505
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: A lot of that depends on the health of Quiski Tart,

506
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 2: but I just think that Cook is going to be

507
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 2: in the game plan as far as getting him the

508
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: ball in the pass game as well. So I think

509
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: that the touch upside for him is massive. But honestly,

510
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 2: I might need to just put Derek Henry number one

511
00:24:55,840 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 2: and say screw it. But a guy that I'm on

512
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 2: just overall, not even for pricing reasons. It's Travis Homer

513
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: of the Seattle Seahawks. And this I don't know if

514
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 2: this is contraaring or not, because we all know that

515
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: Green Bay has struggled in run defense this season. They're

516
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 2: a pretty poor, uh you know team against the run

517
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 2: and a lot better against the past. And so I

518
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: think Homer will get some decent ownership. But for one,

519
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 2: I think, you know, Carol said, Hey, Marshawn's gonna play

520
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 2: a little more. I think that that's probably going to happen.

521
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 2: I think Marshawn will get the goal line carries as

522
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 2: he did last week. And then you look at like

523
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: the state of the Seahawks and their offensive line is decimated.

524
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 2: Dwayne Brown their left tackle, he's out, they lost Justin Britt,

525
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 2: they're starting center back in I think it was Week

526
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 2: ten against Atlanta, so they're they're really decimated on the

527
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 2: on the offensive line. So I think even when Homer

528
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 2: is in the game and he'll play more pass downs

529
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: than Winch, I would think I think there's gonna be

530
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 2: a lot of pass blocking for him. So not not

531
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 2: high on him at all, all.

532
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: Right, the guy I'm relatively low on, and honestly, I

533
00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: might need to kind of go back and look at

534
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 1: this a little bit. But and I know that he

535
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: got the lead back job, you know, within the final

536
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: month of the season. But at this point, you have

537
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: everyone healthy coming off of the buy, and so I'm

538
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: just a little more hesitant about him really being locked

539
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,360
Speaker 1: in as the lead back. I could see there being

540
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: kind of just a little bit more of an even

541
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 1: distribution of touches amongst all of the running backs that

542
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: they have. I mean, like Jeffrey Wilson is like the rare,

543
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: small bodied vulture, and they're not even like giving him touches,

544
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: but he's like he would be a very good number

545
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: two back on anyone else's team. And so they just

546
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: have so many weapons that they can go to in

547
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: the backfield that I feel really hesitant, even though they

548
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: are home favorites, about skewing the touch distribution heavily towards

549
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: any one guy in that backfield. So it's I don't know,

550
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, like, where are you guys on all

551
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: of this and how the distribution breaks down with the

552
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: forty nine ers.

553
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: It's tough because I was thinking about this too, because

554
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 2: I was looking at my model when I would like

555
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: to have Carlos Hide, I think above Moster. I think

556
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 2: I have most at six Hide seven. But then I'm

557
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: I was looking at it in like San Francisco just

558
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 2: projects for a lot of rushing attempts. Like they they

559
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 2: are a very run heavy team. And so even when

560
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 2: you like, uh, you know, Moster has been getting you know,

561
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 2: close to sixty percent of the carries over these past

562
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 2: few weeks. And even if you take a little more

563
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 2: conservative approach and I bumped him, I just played with it,

564
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 2: and I bumped him down to fifty percent, and he

565
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 2: was still coming out as ahead of Carlos Hide. And

566
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 2: a lot of that is to do with they are

567
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 2: run heavy. You do expect him to have more goal

568
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: line carries than a team like Houston, who, you know,

569
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 2: large underdogs against the Chiefs might just not get to run.

570
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: The ball as much.

571
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: So I do think that there's some sneaky upstirts upside

572
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 2: with Moster. He's scored I believe it's what in his

573
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: last five games, he scored a petun Yeah, okay, yeah.

574
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 3: Ever since they inactivated Jeff Wilson basically, yeah, yeah, sorry.

575
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 2: Sorry for you man. Yeah, he got he's got to

576
00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 2: be active to get some touches there.

577
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: But but it's it's crazy. It's like the guy that

578
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: they were giving goal line touches to at the beginning

579
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: of the year, when it's like, hey, this guy's one

580
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety pounds, why are you giving him tons

581
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: of goal line touches. But you know, it's just they

582
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 1: have so many backs that they could do something with

583
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: even their fullback even y.

584
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was about to say, Like there's aike.

585
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: I'm higher on the Niners in this matchup just for

586
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 2: because I think Cousins is due for a poor game.

587
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 2: But you know, if gamescript doesn't go, you know, the

588
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 2: way the forty nine ers want. They have used Kyle

589
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 2: Yuschek in pass protection as they're passed down, hurry up back,

590
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 2: or they'll use like two backs, And yeah, I agree

591
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 2: that it could get very dicey. And then you throw

592
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 2: in the kind of Shanahan unpredictability factory where whether it's

593
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: Matt Brida, you know, getting like the first five carries

594
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 2: of the game or something silly like that, like he's

595
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 2: going to try to do things to break tendency. So

596
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 2: I understand.

597
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 3: I've been playing fants football for twenty twenty five years.

598
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 3: I know they never trust the Shanahan, but I think

599
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 3: just with Mozer's he's cheap enough to her. I'm gonna

600
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bite this week. So yeah, I feel like

601
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 3: a nube. I know, he scored a touchdown six straight games.

602
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 3: I'm not banking on that. I could just see him

603
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 3: getting you know, fifteen plus touches potentially this week as all.

604
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I get it. I'm just still scared, you know,

605
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 1: like Shanahan with an extra week to get in his head. Yeah,

606
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 1: he wants to be contrary.

607
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: It just well, just Samuel end arounds and things like

608
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: that will happen. That's part of it.

609
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: But well here's a question real quick, okay, like after

610
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 2: watching this whole season play out, like rank just in

611
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: terms of talent the top three San fran Backs.

612
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 3: I mean, I love Matt. I'm a big Matt Brada guy.

613
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: I'm always scared about him just running out with the job.

614
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 3: I would I would go and Mozarts look good. I

615
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: would go Brita Mozart Coleman right now.

616
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, same and it's crazy because that's like Brita is

617
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 2: like the third string now for some like it it's crazy.

618
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: Do I even need to include Coleman? I mean I

619
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: would go I would go most Brita and Wilson. Yeah, boy, Wilson,

620
00:29:55,240 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 1: like Coleman's expendable. Seriously, if they put Wilson in and

621
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: benched Coleman, would they actually miss anything from that backfield?

622
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: I don't think so.

623
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 3: No.

624
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's disappointing because I feel like it's been

625
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 2: like two years now, where like, Okay, if Coleman, you know,

626
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 2: he's in this kind of committee back, he's still kind

627
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: of a you know, a flex draft pick in you know,

628
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: season long. But but if somebody gets hurt, watch out,

629
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: Coleman's gonna get all And it just doesn't happen. For

630
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 2: some it's just like it's just in that same pertatory.

631
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, it's like sorry to everyone who ran

632
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: into the buzz saw that he was when he had

633
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 1: four touchdowns in one week. But other than that, like

634
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: that like that was the one game. All right, let's

635
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: get into the player prop for running backs. Sean give

636
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 1: it to us.

637
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 3: All right, Obviously we're going with Derek Henry rushing yards.

638
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 3: This is a very tough line a set, but I'm

639
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 3: gonna float ninety five and a half over.

640
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 2: I got him one hundred, I got him at twenty

641
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 2: one and a half carries. I have Tennessee projected for

642
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 2: twenty two carries, and I have him getting twenty one

643
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: and a half of them. I think that it's a

644
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 2: little high. Well, he's actually got that high two weeks ago,

645
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 2: and then last week he got ninety four point something,

646
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 2: So I think the West carries they have, the more

647
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 2: likely it is that he gets a higher percentage of them.

648
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: So I might play with it, but yeah, I think

649
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 2: that's the difference. I just have him at an extra carecter.

650
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: I think it's funny that I'm higher on him relatively

651
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: than you are, but I'm going to take the under.

652
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: I have him at eighty nine and eighteen, like eighteen

653
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: ish carries.

654
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 3: I'm at twenty one point six four point four right now.

655
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 3: I mean, he's insane. And last week when I was

656
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 3: doing my player prop article or I just went through

657
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 3: every player prop, I was like loading into my stimulator

658
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 3: to get his median projection, and like spit out, Like

659
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 3: first thing I got was like one sixteen and a half.

660
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 3: I was like, what, yes, like for his median Yeah,

661
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 3: I was like, week, huh, I haven't done that yet.

662
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 3: That thing it's almost like mining bitcoin. It's a whole process.

663
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, we'll have to see. But like I was

664
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: just shocked and I was like, I can't be right.

665
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 3: So I tweaked some things, but looks like it was correct.

666
00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm too low on him, which is almost unreal

667
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: because once I get higher on him, he's going to

668
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: be the number one guy and the right thing for me.

669
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 3: So you have him just for one reception, Like what

670
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 3: do you guys have for that? Because I have him.

671
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 1: For one one point two receptions?

672
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: I have him, Yeah, I have him a little a

673
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 2: little under one and a half. I again like I

674
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: think essentially like if in situations like this, watching how

675
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 2: they use him, like I think if they get down,

676
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: there will be a little bit higher chance that he

677
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 2: that he sees more work in the backfields like in

678
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: past pro So I bumped his target percentage of a

679
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,239
Speaker 2: tiny bit over on what it would be because just

680
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: last week was just a very like outlier type of

681
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 2: situation in general with them only attempting like fifteen yeah.

682
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 3: So that's what I was curious is if if they

683
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 3: get down by ten plus, you think they'll just keep

684
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 3: him in there and you won't have you don't expect

685
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: him to use Dean Lewis when or even like carry

686
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: blasting game.

687
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 2: I mean, I so, I do, I do. I mean

688
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: I think obviously, you know, as they the score you know,

689
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 2: increases against them, though that would be more likely. But

690
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 2: at the same time, like we're talking about the difference

691
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: between you know, like one and a half and one reception,

692
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 2: I think that like seeing how they use him in

693
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: like what was it that twenty two yard screen pass

694
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 2: or something like that against the Yeah, it's like I

695
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: think there will actually be a couple old like at

696
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 2: least one, but even more if you know they get

697
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: down in the playbook where they're just calling passes for him,

698
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: even if it's on early downs. He's the guy that

699
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 2: has like that Lamar Jackson just silly, ridiculous, doesn't make sense,

700
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: kind of upside that, like if they are to pull

701
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 2: off this upset, it has to be him. And I

702
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 2: think there was a game against because Henry's been in

703
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: the playoffs before. I remember he had Like I think

704
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: it's like a big player too in the past game

705
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 2: and yeah, yeah, so.

706
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 3: He's never like he's always been decent. It's just yeah,

707
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 3: we're we're gonna probably see a negative game script. So

708
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 3: it's it's definitely important to figure out. This week, Let's

709
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 3: go to the wide receivers. The guys at the top

710
00:33:55,480 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 3: of our rankings. Davonte Adams against Seattle, Tyreek Hill home

711
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 3: against Houston, and Andrew Hopkins going against Kansas City.

712
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: Sean who you like?

713
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 3: So I definitely like the top two guys. Their their

714
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 3: price pretty low on DK this week I have them both.

715
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 3: They should be over a K and you can get

716
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 3: them seven point eight and seven point six. So I'll

717
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 3: probably have a lot of DeVante Adams and tire Kill.

718
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 3: We know their ceiling is massive, so I love fitting

719
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 3: them in this week that they'll be chocky, so I

720
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 3: don't even talk about them anymore. I think the guys

721
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: that I'm looking to take flyers on. These guys are

722
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 3: perfect for like a four game slater. Marquise Brown and

723
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 3: Sammy Watkins. They're both in the four point four K range.

724
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: You know, they both just went off in week one

725
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 3: and really haven't done much since, so I think especially

726
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: a guy like Marquis Brown, He's had two weeks to

727
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: get healthy, he's battled the ankle injury on and off

728
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 3: this year. I think he'll be closer to one percent.

729
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 3: I think Raybaun mentioned earlier we could see an increase

730
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 3: you know, in snaps, and he's been averaging about eighty

731
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 3: to eighty five per ross run per dropbacks, so the

732
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 3: potentials there. I don't think he'll be over owned by

733
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 3: any stretch of imagination. So I want to get on

734
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 3: these guys before a potential big game as opposed to

735
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 3: next week. You know, we're trying to figure out what

736
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 3: to do with Sammy Watkins after a five catch, hundred

737
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 3: one touchdown game. So I think they'll be the cheap

738
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 3: guys that I'm taking a flyer on. You know, I'll

739
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 3: be expecting three catches for forty yards from them and

740
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 3: just be pleasantly surprised if one of them just goes

741
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 3: off and breaks the slate.

742
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 1: Raybo On, you're relatively high on Hollywood, right.

743
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I for those same reasons that I think Sean

744
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: put it well, like, you know, the snaps, because because

745
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 2: Brown has played as many as a route on ninety

746
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 2: five percent of dropbacks. Yeah, dropbacks, that's his season high.

747
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 2: I think it's not there's a non zero chance that

748
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 2: he hits that season high or I mean in some cases,

749
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 2: you know, we see guys like that play one hundred

750
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: percent if they don't, you know, get hurt or make

751
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: a big play and have to come out for a breather. Souh.

752
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 2: He's a guy that really stands out because he really

753
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 2: you know, slunk down a stretch. But he is the

754
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens number one receiver. Friedman. Ye, he's talk about

755
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 2: Titans corners nothing not really to write home about, especially

756
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: with Malcolm Butler, you know out so I think of

757
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 2: Dori Jackson, you know, from from a speed perspective, had

758
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,879
Speaker 2: you know he can match up. But you know, again,

759
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 2: this is a talented guy and how he would and

760
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 2: I think he'll be in a ton of snaps. So

761
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 2: he's the guy I'm I'm really looking. And I also say,

762
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: I think I'm the only one of you guys who

763
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 2: has uh Tyreek number one over DeVante uh. And that's

764
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,879
Speaker 2: just because the Packers, like again like Packers Seahawks, they're

765
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 2: a team that they're gonna play that zone. They're gonna

766
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 2: protect from the big play, whereas Houston, I just don't

767
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 2: think it is quite as talented to do that. And

768
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 2: I think especially with the time to prepare, we've just

769
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 2: seen Andy Ree really fun of the ball. To like

770
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: his top four guys like especially Hill, Kelsey and Williams,

771
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: And to me, he's the number one guy. I think

772
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 2: he's the most upside. This game has a bigger chance

773
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 2: to be a shootout.

774
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: Yeah. I really wanted to put Hill number one, but

775
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 1: his target share his declined in the past month. I

776
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 1: mean since Adams returned. He has eleven point four targets

777
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 1: per game since returning from injury, Like that's just obscene

778
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: and so and then given the matchup that he has,

779
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: he's going against Trey Flowers. So Adams tends to line

780
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: up a left wide receiver Trey Flowers at right cornerback,

781
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 1: you know, the weakest of the guys who's out there

782
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 1: on a regular basis for the Seahawks. So I think

783
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 1: it's just a really good matchup for Adams, even though

784
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: I have to acknowledge he'll easily has the better matchup

785
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: going against hard Graves. I just I still don't know

786
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: how often he's going to be targeted. A guy I'm

787
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 1: pretty high on is Deebo Samuel. You know, going against Minnesota,

788
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: he's going to match up most with Xavier Rhoads. I

789
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: think really highly of Dj Moore, so I don't want

790
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: to compare too many people to what he did last year,

791
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 1: you know, in his rookie season, but I think Debo

792
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 1: has flashed some you know, rookie Dj Moore type of potential.

793
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: I know he's not ostensibly the number one receiver in

794
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 1: that offense, like in theory that's in may Old Sanders,

795
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: but really it's Deebo Samuel, So I like his matchup

796
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: quite a bit. And I think if there's one pass

797
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 1: catcher in that offense, and obviously you know, tons of

798
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: respect for George Kittle, but ice wide receiver in that

799
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: offense that I want to be on, it's going to

800
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: be Debo. So I'm pretty high on him. Sean, who

801
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 1: are you low on?

802
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 3: So I'm low on DeAndre Hopkins. I think we all

803
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 3: have ranked third, So I have ranked third, and he's

804
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 3: the third most expensive wide out on DK, but I

805
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 3: think the gap between the top two in him is

806
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 3: pretty severe. So I have have Hopkins about two and

807
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,399
Speaker 3: a half to three points lower than both Adams and Hill.

808
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 3: So just you know, because of that, I just probably

809
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 3: won't have much Hopkins at all. Casey has been great

810
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 3: against the passes year, shutting down outside receiver, so I

811
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 3: could see, you know, Hopkins who wants president if he

812
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 3: has you know, a six catch, eighty yard type game.

813
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 3: But you guys talked about I think DeVante Adams has

814
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 3: a higher floor entire kill. I could see ranking number one.

815
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 3: I think he has the highest ceiling here. Just I'm

816
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 3: going to have so much exposure those guys. Just taking Hopkins,

817
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 3: is this going to be taking away from those two?

818
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 3: And I'm not going to do it. So I'll be

819
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 3: pretty light on Hopkins this week.

820
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: Before Raymond, Before I kick it to you, I'd like

821
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: to get your guys thoughts on the Chiefs defense in general,

822
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 1: which is kind of a little bit dumbfounding to me.

823
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 1: So they have held wide receivers to the second fewest

824
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 1: DraftKings points this year, but you look at in Raymond,

825
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 1: I think maybe you've mentioned this in another podcast, but

826
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: you look at their cornerbacks and it doesn't seem as

827
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: if there's really anything all that special about what they

828
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: are doing and so I'm wondering where this is coming from.

829
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 1: Is it a function of you know, the teams that

830
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 1: they've played against it, does it have something to do

831
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 1: with safety help? Like why is it that the Chiefs

832
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 1: are so tough on opposing wide receivers when we don't

833
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 1: really think that highly of their cornerbacks.

834
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I've definitely pointed this out because I think

835
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 2: they allowed their number three in DVOA versus number one receivers,

836
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 2: and they allow the fourth fewest schedule adjusted yards per game,

837
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 2: the number ones, the lowest, second lowest, number two is

838
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,479
Speaker 2: they also have the lowest receptions to receivers in the league.

839
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 2: And I think it's it's it's really a function of

840
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: the scheme more than anything. So, uh, they essentially want

841
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 2: to funnel the ball underneath and to the middle. So

842
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,759
Speaker 2: they they're they're yeah, it's it's safety help they're given

843
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: they're given their perimeter corners, you know, help over the top,

844
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 2: and they're kind of you know, they'll have like you know,

845
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 2: maybe three linebackers or four linebacker or whatever, you know,

846
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: in that middle level of the field. That's where they're

847
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 2: kind of funneling the ball to and saying, hey, if

848
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 2: you guys, you know, if you want to kind of

849
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:34,839
Speaker 2: throw your dump it down to your tight end or

850
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 2: your back, so be it. But yeah, they're really they're

851
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 2: really helping out their corners there. So even though their

852
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 2: corners don't maybe grade out that well and like PFF

853
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 2: or anything like that. Uh, this has now been like

854
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:49,919
Speaker 2: a full year trend of them essentially being a non

855
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: wide receiver funnel, like an anti wide receiver funnel. So

856
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 2: it is something I think you take seriously at the

857
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 2: end of the day. Though, Yeah, I think I think

858
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 2: Sean's right, like DeAndre Hopkins will get his because Deshaun

859
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 2: Wats is not just going to ignore him. But I

860
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 2: think the floor is a little lower because even in

861
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 2: that Bills game, you know, we saw Hopkins was pretty

862
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 2: quiet for an entire half, so that could happen again.

863
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Hopkins week six when they faced the Chiefs,

864
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 3: he went nine for fifty five, so a bunch of

865
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 3: short yeah type passes, and we still don't know Fuller's

866
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 3: giving back that might help Hopkins here. But yeah, I'm

867
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 3: expecting just you know, like a six catch eight yard

868
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 3: type game.

869
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: All right, Ray Bound, who are you relatively low on

870
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 1: for me?

871
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 2: It's it's Stefan Diggs. I think, you know, he's priced

872
00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 2: way down to the point where I think a lot

873
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 2: of people are going to own him. He's only five

874
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 2: point six K. And then you have the draftings, you

875
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 2: have the kind of the narrative of all he grew

876
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 2: up on the sideline last week and Cousins is going

877
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: to target him. But again, this San Francisco defense has

878
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 2: been so good, you know, number one versus the past

879
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 2: lowis netyards for attempt in the league, but also just

880
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 2: you know, versus wide receivers, and so I think you

881
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 2: could end up seeing another frustrating game four Diggs San

882
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 2: Francisco out of the fourth few with yards total to

883
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 2: opposing White House this year, and they you know, it's

884
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 2: just really difficult to kind of sustain uh, you know,

885
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: rhythm throwing thrown outside against them with with Sherman and

886
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 2: then Kawan Williams and then the pass rush and Kirk Cousin.

887
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna struggle. So I think it's a

888
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 2: trap that that that will price for Diggs.

889
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: I'm relatively low on all of the Seahawks wide receivers

890
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 1: and this is something I might need to adjust. You know,

891
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 1: given that they are now without their their top running backs,

892
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 1: maybe they're starting to skew a little bit more towards

893
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: the pass and I need to adjust for that. But

894
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:44,439
Speaker 1: right now I'm still relatively low on all of them.

895
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: You guys have Tyler Lockett number four, I have him

896
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: number six. I'm similarly a little bit lower on DK

897
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 1: Metcalf and a little bit lower on David Moore. And

898
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 1: you know, part of that, I think is the pass

899
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 1: defense for the Packers isn't like it's not bad. They

900
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: allowed the second fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers. Their

901
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 1: past defense is you know, i'd say average at worst,

902
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,320
Speaker 1: And so I'm just a little bit lower on the

903
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: Seahawks wide receivers, but I might need to look at

904
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: that a little bit more. Sean give us the prop

905
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,359
Speaker 1: four wide receivers DK.

906
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty tough to project, but I'm going to go

907
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 3: with sixty four and a half receiving yards and just

908
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 3: real quick, when I was doing my player prop analysis

909
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 3: last week, his median yards is ten points higher than

910
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 3: his average, which is very rare. I don't think you

911
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 3: ever see that much, especially this late in the season.

912
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 3: So it's just interesting to point out that his median

913
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 3: is like way higher than his average.

914
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:45,439
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Yeah, sixty four and a half. I will

915
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 1: take the under, but I'm not under by much. I'm

916
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 1: around fifty nine point five. I wouldn't bet that, you know,

917
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 1: if like that's if that's the line that you gave me,

918
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: But I lean to the under.

919
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 2: I have the over. I''m at seventy and that's just

920
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:02,280
Speaker 2: because he's you know, he's running all of the routes

921
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 2: now and h Green Bay is actually you know, they've

922
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 2: been pretty good in slot coverage. I think it's Tremon

923
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:09,919
Speaker 2: Williams is still out there. But you know, they also

924
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,439
Speaker 2: have good safety. So Metcalf is the most likely guy

925
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 2: to blow up, and I might actually flip him in

926
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 2: and lock. Why could it just so efficient that like,

927
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 2: even with the like not many targets, he still pops

928
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 2: in the model. But when you look at Seattle, they

929
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 2: have no offensive line, so they're probably gonna use their

930
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 2: running back and pass pro maybe even a second tight end.

931
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,239
Speaker 2: I think it just kind of concentrates the targets to

932
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: the wide receivers. So I think I understand why metcalf

933
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 2: media would be higher than his average, just because Seattle

934
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: also has these games where they just don't pass a lot,

935
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 2: and I think that like those games happen so frequently

936
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 2: that it can bring down his average. But you know,

937
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 2: at the end, I think I think I like Metcalf,

938
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 2: is what I'm saying. I think I think he's in

939
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 2: a good spot this week.

940
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:47,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is kind of why I was thinking,

941
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: like I need to go back and look a little

942
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 1: bit more at, uh, at what I'm doing in the projections,

943
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: because Metcalf, uh, he lines up like almost entirely at

944
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,359
Speaker 1: left wide receiver, so he's to be going against Kevin King,

945
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 1: who at this point is the worst starting cornerback left

946
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, like by far, allowing one point seventy

947
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: one yards per snap and that's you know, from Pro

948
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: Football Focus. So like he has a good matchup and

949
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 1: I haven't really accounted for that particular matchup. And it's

950
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 1: like we're at the point in the playoffs so where

951
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:27,280
Speaker 1: bizarrely there are no more shadow corners left, like Latimore

952
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: is gone, the Patriots are gone, like there's no one

953
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 1: and a Tredevious White is gone, so there's no like

954
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 1: sort of like ironclad. Oh, this wide receiver is going

955
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 1: to be facing this cornerback in this game. But because

956
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 1: Metcalf lines up so much on the left side, and

957
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: because the Packers do play sides and don't shadow, you know,

958
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:52,320
Speaker 1: Metcalf actually is going to face Kevin King for probably

959
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: the majority of his routes, and so this is one

960
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 1: area where I do think I need to adjust him up.

961
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 1: So if I had the opportunity to re bet this prop,

962
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 1: I would actually probably go over you know, like now

963
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 1: that I'm thinking about this a little bit more.

964
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 3: Too late, Yeah, I know too. Honestly, after all this discussion,

965
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 3: I've probably set the line higher.

966
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 1: So yeah, okay, let's talk about the tight ends. We

967
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 1: have Kelsey, Kittle and Andrews. I think no surprise that

968
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: those guys are in the top three. And I think

969
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 1: there's quite a bit of uniformity in our tight end rankings.

970
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking at it and we have our

971
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 1: top eight are all ranked exactly the same. It's just,

972
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 1: you know, it's just kind of that point in the season. Sean,

973
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 1: who are you relatively high on?

974
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 3: I don't think there's any reason to really go past

975
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 3: Kelsey and Kittle. It's a it's a four game slate

976
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 3: and we have, you know, the two best tight ends,

977
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,359
Speaker 3: so I think at sixty six D and DK, there's

978
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 3: no real reason to go past them, and I think

979
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 3: it's smart to use both, you know, take one of

980
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 3: your titan slot and use the other in your flex.

981
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 3: I think that's an interesting play this week. I don't

982
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 3: know if it's gonna be popular, but I'll be doing

983
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 3: that quite a bit. But if there's anybody that I

984
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 3: would take a flyer on in the three point five carrange,

985
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 3: it would be Darren Fells. Jordan Atkins was in active

986
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 3: last week. I don't think we really know why, but

987
00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 3: Fells ended up running a rout on eighty percent of

988
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 3: the dropbacks. I mean, he's a guy that's you know,

989
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 3: he's a touchdown or bus kind of guy. But I

990
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 3: could see if Atkins is an active again, you know,

991
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 3: three catch, thirty yard, two touchdown game from Fells or something,

992
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 3: so he'd be the only guy in that range i'd

993
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 3: take a flyer on. But I'll mostly have just a

994
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 3: ton of Kelson kill this week.

995
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:30,400
Speaker 1: Raymond, who do you like?

996
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with Sean on Fels. You know, he had

997
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 2: thirteen red zone targets tied DeAndre Hopkins for the team lead,

998
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 2: and we just mentioned it. Casey is a team that's

999
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 2: going to funnel the ball two guys like Fells and

1000
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 2: make you kind of dump it down and take those

1001
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 2: five six yard gains. So I could I mean, if

1002
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 2: the game script goes against Houston and the line has

1003
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 2: actually moved against him, it open at eight up to

1004
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,359
Speaker 2: nine and a half, I believe. So if they get

1005
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 2: into that comeback mode, I could even see you know,

1006
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: six six catches if they're you know, they're going against

1007
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: the prevent defense or something like that. And I think

1008
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 2: he'll be well owned because Fuller comes back. I think

1009
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 2: people will kind of be looking at him. So White

1010
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: Cam and Mark Andrews, I think, is that one guy

1011
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 2: that has that that upside of a Kittle or a Kelsey.

1012
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 2: And you know he's another candidate for increased snaps. I

1013
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: mean Andrews, you know, he started struggling with injuries in

1014
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 2: the middle of the season and they really started kind

1015
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 2: of rationing out his his snapcounts. But this is a

1016
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 2: game where you know, it's for all the marbles, you know,

1017
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 2: I could see that it's been seventy two sixty seven

1018
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 2: percent of routes over the last two games. He's had

1019
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,279
Speaker 2: a couple of games in the you know, close to

1020
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: the fifties. I could see his season high was seventy three.

1021
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 2: I could see him breaking that season high in this

1022
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 2: game against Tennessee, who hasn't been very good against tight ends.

1023
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: Raybound to your point about Tennessee not being very good

1024
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 1: against tight ends. Tennessee is I believe they've allowed the

1025
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 1: fifth most fantasy points to the tight end position, and

1026
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: you know part of that is a combination of touchdowns allowed,

1027
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: but then also you know they've allowed a pretty significant

1028
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: chunk of yards to the position too. You look at

1029
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 1: what Andrews is done. He's still like kind of maximizing

1030
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 1: what he's doing when he is on the field, And

1031
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,160
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, yeah, I mean it's the playoffs. This

1032
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 1: would be the time when they would start to, i think,

1033
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 1: ramp up his playing time. So I'm pretty enthusiastic about Andrews.

1034
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 1: And although I have him ranked number three, I think

1035
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: it's a little bit closer than Sean would probably say.

1036
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 1: It is like, like I understand that there is like

1037
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 1: this there is a clear gap between Kittle and Kelsey

1038
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 1: and then Andrews. But I'm still very interested in Andrews,

1039
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 1: which I guess like it's on brand because I've just

1040
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: been into Andrews like since the preseason. But I just

1041
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot for him, and they're

1042
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 1: going to give him a little more playing time.

1043
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 2: I have him only point seven PPR points half PPR

1044
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 2: points lower than Kittle Boom.

1045
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 1: Well, then I think if that's the case, you basically

1046
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: have to like Andrews quite a bit because of the

1047
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 1: difference in pricing. But Sean talked to us about why

1048
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: Andrews is someone you hate this week exactly?

1049
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 3: You know I hate that. Well, you know, I think

1050
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:10,319
Speaker 3: there's three tight ends we can even consider this week.

1051
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I could say the guy that I think

1052
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 3: is the most overpriced this week is Hayden Hurst, but

1053
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna waste any time talking about that. Kelsey Kittle,

1054
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,760
Speaker 3: I have them projected out to be close to seven

1055
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 3: K this week, so getting them at that discount just

1056
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have a ton of them. And where's Mark Andrews.

1057
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 3: I think he's priced about where he should be. I

1058
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 3: could see him being priced a little bit higher, like

1059
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 3: fifty eight hundred or so, But obviously you guys talked

1060
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:35,320
Speaker 3: about his upside is massive, so I'm not gonna fault

1061
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:37,919
Speaker 3: you for taking him planning out my exposure, I'll probably

1062
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 3: have less of him. I think he'll be pretty chalky

1063
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 3: in stacks with Lamar Jackson. I think what I'm gonna

1064
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 3: do is any Lamar Jackson stacks I have, I'll probably

1065
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 3: mostly use Marquise Brown we talked about earlier. I like

1066
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 3: his upside this week, and I think he'll be under own.

1067
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 3: So I think this is just more of a leverage

1068
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,280
Speaker 3: play than me saying that you know, Andrews is gonna

1069
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 3: suck because, like like you guys mentioned, we haven't really

1070
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 3: seen the snap counts we would like to see from him.

1071
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 3: So if they if they jacked up this week because

1072
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,439
Speaker 3: of the playoffs, I mean, he obviously has a tight

1073
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 3: end one upside for this entire slate, So it's a

1074
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 3: bit of a risky move fading him. But you know

1075
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:14,399
Speaker 3: you have to fade one of the top three this week,

1076
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 3: So that'll be him for me this week, just just

1077
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have too much Kelsey Kittle to have him

1078
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 3: as well.

1079
00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 2: I think he's an interesting like game stack with like

1080
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:26,839
Speaker 2: maybe Derrick Henry and AJ Brown or something like that,

1081
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 2: because if you look at Andrews, even with the low

1082
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 2: snap counts, he's he's had twenty four percent or more

1083
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 2: of the target share in ten of fifteen games, and

1084
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 2: so like, really, I think it comes down to more

1085
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 2: how much does Baltimore throw the football, Like, if they

1086
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,359
Speaker 2: throw the football a lot, there's a pretty high chance

1087
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:45,880
Speaker 2: that he gets a like he can he can have

1088
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 2: that that that target upside that Kittle and Kelsey have.

1089
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: But you know if they have one of those games

1090
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 2: where they only throw it, like, you know, twenty two

1091
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,760
Speaker 2: times or something, then then then it's a little rougher.

1092
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 2: So it's I think he's like an interesting game stack.

1093
00:51:57,680 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 2: We I wouldn't touch him in cash.

1094
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like his his target percent things like that are

1095
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 3: so insane, Like his underlying usage is insane. You would

1096
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 3: just think if regressing over to ever happen, it'd be negative. Right,

1097
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,319
Speaker 3: he can't get any better than he has, So I

1098
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 3: think the only thing that he can regress up on

1099
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 3: is just playing time, and that that could be there

1100
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,240
Speaker 3: this week. So he's he's been one of the trickier

1101
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 3: tight ends the project all all year, and this week's

1102
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 3: no different for me.

1103
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:24,960
Speaker 1: All Right, Raymond here are you low on?

1104
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 2: You know, it's it's it's a tough week to because

1105
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 2: like you have the three guys and then I think

1106
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of like, okay, lower on everybody else,

1107
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: but but that top three. But if I had to

1108
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 2: pick someone, I'd probably go I probably go John Nu Smith.

1109
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 2: And that's because when you look at Tennessee, you know,

1110
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 2: even last week when the playoffs, you know, the playoffs hit,

1111
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:54,239
Speaker 2: his route per dropback was fifty six percent, which is

1112
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 2: not a great number. We saw, we saw ferks are mixing,

1113
00:52:57,680 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 2: you know with the touchdown. Fertzer actually had a higher

1114
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 2: target percentage last week. They only threw a few times,

1115
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 2: but he had twenty percent of the targets to Smith's thirteen.

1116
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:07,960
Speaker 2: So you know, it's just a situation where we can't

1117
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,720
Speaker 2: count on him to be heavily involved in the offense.

1118
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 2: In Baltimore's pass defense has been very good so and

1119
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 2: Michael preu It also ran thirty nine percent of the

1120
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 2: routes last week as well, which is kind of double

1121
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 2: his season average. So just can't really rely on what

1122
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 2: Tennessee's doing. As far as these tight ends, they're all

1123
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 2: kind of mixing in and they're just trying to do

1124
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 2: different things to throw off the defense. So John who

1125
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 2: could go for a big play or two, but the

1126
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 2: usage is tough to get behind.

1127
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 3: All Right.

1128
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 1: The guy I'm relatively low on now hear me out

1129
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 1: it is George Kittle. Like, even though I know he

1130
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 1: has to be a you know, a top two tight

1131
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 1: end in the slate in terms of where you're ranking

1132
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: him or projecting him. As I said, I do have

1133
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 1: the difference between Kittle and Andrews as pretty close. And

1134
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 1: you know, Raymond you indicated that as well, And part

1135
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 1: of it is just the matchup is actually really tough.

1136
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 1: The Vikings are number one in pass defense Steve Voa

1137
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 1: against tight ends, and I tend to think of Kittle

1138
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 1: as a matchup proof type of player just I mean,

1139
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 1: like he is, I have to acknowledge that, but I

1140
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 1: mean he's going against two of the top three coverage

1141
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 1: safeties in the league, and Anthony Harris, who's really come

1142
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,200
Speaker 1: on this year, and then Harrison Smith, who's you know,

1143
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 1: been one of the top safeties in the league four years.

1144
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 1: And so even if he's a matchup proof guy, I

1145
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:27,400
Speaker 1: think that means he goes from being you know, like

1146
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 1: highly attractive to almost highly attractive, you know what I mean,

1147
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,240
Speaker 1: Like you have to kind of knock him a little

1148
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 1: bit because of the matchup and so like, say he

1149
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: sold gets the same volume. You know, he's just slightly

1150
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 1: less efficient with the monstrous volume that he's going to get.

1151
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:46,919
Speaker 1: I already know that Sean is probably going to make

1152
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 1: at this point the tight end prop George Kittle, So

1153
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,800
Speaker 1: why don't we just get to the prop? Sean?

1154
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 3: No, No, you're wrong, and I can't blame you, like

1155
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 3: I said, we can't. We can't play everybody unless you know,

1156
00:54:58,120 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 3: we have our wives make teams too.

1157
00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 1: But the prop, it only took about an hour for

1158
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 1: that to get mentioned. That's great.

1159
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 3: The prop that I'm going to go with is the

1160
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 3: guy that I said is almost impossible project this week.

1161
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 3: That's Mark Andrews. So I'm gonna get us on record.

1162
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 3: I have him at fifty nine and a half receiving yards.

1163
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:21,719
Speaker 2: I have him at fifty eight. I mean, yeah, I'll

1164
00:55:21,760 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 2: go under, but you know, still like him. But yeah,

1165
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:25,439
Speaker 2: I think that's a great one.

1166
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's never fun betting Mark Andrews under, is it?

1167
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 2: Noah, never want.

1168
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 1: To do that. I'm right around that number, I'm slightly over.

1169
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 1: I'll take the over. You said fifty nine and a half, Yeah,

1170
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half. I'm around sixty four.

1171
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 3: Point four receptions? Do you guys have about that?

1172
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,839
Speaker 2: Like four point four for fifty eight? Let me see

1173
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 2: them death will four point four for fifty eight point three?

1174
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 3: All right, So yeah, he's easy to project. That changed

1175
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:51,520
Speaker 3: my mind.

1176
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, so yeah, I'm in that neighborhood.

1177
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, how many?

1178
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 1: How many touchdowns are you projecting?

1179
00:55:58,160 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 3: Zero point five?

1180
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,719
Speaker 1: I haven't at point six, I'm like your point five eight.

1181
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:07,240
Speaker 2: Again, it's like just projecting a little bit more snaps

1182
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 2: for like the top Ravens, guys that haven't that have

1183
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 2: been kind of not playing a full compliment all year,

1184
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,839
Speaker 2: so like Brown Andrews, which then lowers it for like

1185
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 2: a little bit for like boil as the blocking tight

1186
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 2: end and guys like that. So I think his competition

1187
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 2: for touchdowns should be a little different than it is

1188
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 2: in some weeks.

1189
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 3: But so Willie sneeds definitely scoring the first touchdown.

1190
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, well, Seth Roberts probably.

1191
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just crazy he hasn't been the guy that's

1192
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 3: been scoring touchdowns anyway.

1193
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 1: I mean, guys clearly it's a pass to mark ingram.

1194
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:41,680
Speaker 1: I mean, oh yeah, obviously, all right, I think that

1195
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:44,720
Speaker 1: is going to do it. You can follow Sean, Chris

1196
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 1: and Me in the Action Network app at the Underscore

1197
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 1: odds maker Chris Raven and Matt F. The Oracle use

1198
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 1: the app to get real time odds and track your

1199
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 1: bets for free. Check out the rest of our episodes

1200
00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 1: in our live shows and the Peace. Subscribe to and

1201
00:56:56,760 --> 00:56:59,479
Speaker 1: rate in review the show on Apple podcast radio dot com,

1202
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 1: or We're ever you get your podcast.

1203
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:07,800
Speaker 2: See you again next episode.

1204
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 3: We're finished talking