WEBVTT - Can an oil exec successfully lead COP28? 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:01.520 Hi. 0:00:01.680 --> 0:00:05.160 I'm Olivia Rudgaard, a reporter for Bloomberg Green. I'm currently 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:07.400 working on a piece about climate anxiety, and I have 0:00:07.480 --> 0:00:11.160 request for zero listeners. Climate change can cause stress, both 0:00:11.160 --> 0:00:13.640 of people directly affected by it and for those concerned 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:16.480 about its effects on others and their future. If you're 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:18.759 okay to share your experience of this, we would love 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:21.360 to hear from you. Tell us what makes you worry, 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:23.560 how your worries affect your life, and what helps you 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:26.520 feel better. Take our short survey. There's a link in 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:27.120 the show notes. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:35.160 Thank you, Welcome to Zero. I'm Aaron Rutcoff, executive editor 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.959 of Bloomberg Green. Some of you listening to this podcast are, 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.560 not doubt, among the seventy thousand people traveling to do 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:43.520 Buy next week for the UN's Annual Climate Summit COP 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:45.960 twenty eight. It's a huge event and a lot of 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:48.280 the focus and the lead up has been on one character, 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.960 Sultan all Jobber. He's COP twenty eighth President. He's charged 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:55.560 with bringing everyone together and settling the Climate Summit's ambitions. 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:58.120 He is also the head of the United Arabor Emirates 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:01.080 State Oil Company ADNAC. This was to say the least 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:05.560 a controversial placement. Earlier this year, Zero's regular host akshat 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.400 Rothi wrote a profile of Sultan al Jobber. I came 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:12.040 on the podcast to talk to Acshot about it and 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.600 ask him basically what someone like al Jobber's leadership would 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.080 mean for an institution like COP. If you'd like to 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:19.720 listen to that episode, we've linked to it in the 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.520 show notes. Today we're giving an update about everything that's 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.039 happened over the past six months before Oxshot and the 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:28.840 rest of the Green team goes to COP next week. Oxshot, 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:29.759 Welcome to the show. 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:31.200 Hey, good to be here. 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:33.720 All right, let's be honest, Doc Shot. Last time we 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:37.039 talked about Sultan al Jobber, you just finish chased them 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:40.240 around the world. We published your profile. That was probably 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:43.600 the moment of peak Sultan panic in the climate world. 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:46.840 You were having lots of conversations after the profile came 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.880 out with diplomats and the types of climate people who 0:01:49.960 --> 0:01:52.280 turn up at COP every year, and many of those 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:55.280 people were saying, you know, maybe quietly, maybe not on 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.560 the record exactly, that they thought COP twenty eight being 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:00.840 run by an oil ceo inside one of the world's 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:04.440 biggest oil Nations was going to be somewhere between disappointment 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:07.440 and a disaster. But you know, we've got here now, 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.480 like six months later, on the eve of COP twenty eight, 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:12.480 and it doesn't feel like we're really facing down the 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:15.280 worst case scenario that some of those people were worried about. 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:18.280 To me, it feels more or less like we're seeing 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:21.280 the normal kind of disputes and battle lines that happened 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.120 basically before every single cop. 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.320 What do you think you're right for the months after 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:30.280 the profile came out, that panic had turned into frustration, 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:34.359 sort of bubbling frustration that little progress is being made 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:38.600 on clearing up what the agenda at COPP will be, 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.360 because it's a very important thing to start nailing that 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:44.200 down early. There are just so many issues and so 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:47.320 many people who care about those issues that to be 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.320 able to come to a consensus, you have to start 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:53.640 to create what are called in COP language landing zones, 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:56.920 where you get many countries agreeing on certain things and 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:00.440 then hash out the details so that everybody can on 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:03.920 some of those things. And that just wasn't happening. And 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.200 when I was in the UAE, I got told a 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.520 couple of times, look over here, things happen at the 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:13.519 last minute, and it does feel like things have happened 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.320 in the last minute. There are now some real clear 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:20.520 landing zones emerging a week before COP twenty eight that 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:23.320 it feels like there will be an agreement. Now, we 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.680 know by nature of COPS that agreement is never going 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.880 to be enough, but comparing ourselves to February when I 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.440 was doing the profile, there's certainly been plenty of progress. 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:37.360 One of the signs of the larger potential for agreement 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:40.480 now is the fact that we're seeing some initial two 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.520 way consensus happening between the US and China, and that's 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.400 usually like the key piece that has to precede anything 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:48.240 that happens in the bigger COP environment. Can you kind 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.000 of walk us through what we're seeing from those two 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:50.800 countries right now? 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.640 Yeah, we have two real good examples of this. The 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:57.680 Paris Agreement happened because there was a US and China 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:01.360 agreement going into Paris said we are going to try 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:03.600 and do something on climate, and so it boards well 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:07.520 for an agreement going into COP twenty eight that US 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:12.240 and China have agreed on having language around tripling renewable 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:14.600 energy into the final agreement. 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:18.119 So let's look at that goal, triple renewables by twenty thirty. 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:20.440 You know that sounds good, It sounds it sounds really good. 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.040 I think there's something like sixty countries that have already 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.360 signaled there on board with this. You got to get 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:27.839 up to like almost two hundred, but sixty is a 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:30.760 really good start. But if I'm being really honest, this 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.240 goal also sounds like something that maybe would come to 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:36.320 pass almost no matter what. This year twenty twenty three, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.640 even with inflation and high interest rates. In a couple 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:41.840 of wars, there's been just an absolutely mind boggling amount 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.080 of solar built around the world, and especially in China. 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:48.640 So is tripling renewables too easy? Should should the goal 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:51.560 at copy something harder, like producing fossil fuels? 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:54.000 So just a little bit of context. The reason why 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.200 we are talking about tripling renewable energy is because this 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:01.000 cop is where a technical thing happen, which is called 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:04.279 the Global stock take, is the first taking of where 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:08.080 things stand after the Paris Agreement was signed, and we 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:12.280 knew going into the technical process that clearly, given that 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:15.080 emissions are going to hit another new record this year, 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.400 that we are not on the right path and so 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:20.960 it was incumbent upon the Presidency to come up with 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:25.520 the response, a political response from all countries to show 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:29.159 that they are willing to try and fill that gap. 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:33.279 And so tripling renewable energy is important because it allows 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:37.159 for supply of clean energy to increase. The other thing 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.520 that is likely going to be agreed upon is doubling 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:44.360 energy efficiency. Another great thing, because you can use less 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.719 energy to do the same thing. But you're absolutely right, 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:52.000 just because you're increasing clean energy supply does not mean 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:55.440 it will lead to reduction in emissions. And that's why 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.239 phasing out fossil fuels is going to be a big 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:02.080 talking point going into COP twenty Even though the Presidency 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:05.440 hasn't yet committed to having that on the agenda, we 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.440 know that the European Union is pushing for that language. 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.840 There are some tweaks being made to it, as happens 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:15.320 with these UN negotiations. The most recent one I heard 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:20.520 was let's call it an orderly phase down off unabated 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:24.000 fossil fuels. And maybe that is one place where many 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.479 many countries will agree. But it's a fight that we 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:28.440 are going to track as we're going to COP twenty eight. 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:32.800 So our colleague Jendaluis who covers the US Climate Envoy 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.000 John Kerry, and like you, runs around comple like crazy 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:39.039 for a couple weeks. She's told us that she thinks 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.120 the odds are good for finding that phrase that you 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:44.760 just said in orderly phase down of unabated fossil fuels, 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:47.479 that she thinks there's a pretty solid odds we're going 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:49.279 to see that in the final document that has to 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:52.240 be produced back insensus. At the very end that final 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:56.440 communicate is likely where doctor Sultan, as the president, has 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:59.599 the most amount of leverage. So first I wanted you 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.680 to give us a breakdown of the jargon that you 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.400 just used. We got phase down as opposed to phase out, 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:08.880 and then there's this word unabated that seems like it's 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:09.960 a code for something. 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:13.720 Yeah, it gets jogony so quickly because it's what countries 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:16.160 need to agree on. They don't really care if the 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:19.160 man on the street understands that language, but it's absolutely 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:22.400 crucial to understand that language. We've met with businesses who 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.280 then take a cop document and read through line by 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:27.560 line to see if any of what is being said 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:31.040 by these countries could become policy, could affect their business. 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:36.280 So unabated is code for carbon capture technologies. This is 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:39.640 something we've covered on the podcast previously. We've had two 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:44.280 guests looking at carbon capture technologies both from smokestacks and 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:48.880 from the air, and we know these technologies are important 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:51.520 and will be crucial, but how much do we deploy 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:54.480 them is a question up for grabs. We know that 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:57.760 Sultan al Jabber as the president of COP twenty eight, 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.480 but the CEO of an oil company wants oil and 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:04.000 gas companies to show up at COP with solutions and 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:07.960 carbon capture is their favorite solution, and so GENS reporting 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:11.920 shows that there may be agreement around unabated because carbon 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:14.840 capture technologies are something that many of the players coming 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:18.120 into COP will be pushing for. And then orderly is 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:21.800 also code for slow, to make sure that if there 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:26.440 are panicky situations like a spike in prices or a 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:31.080 supply crunch or disaster like COVID, that would be latitude 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:33.560 given for making sure that fossil fuels still are in 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:36.800 the mix for a little bit longer than perhaps the 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:37.560 science says. 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:40.040 And that's kind of actually what we've seen over the 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:43.600 last year or so following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:46.880 the European effort to get off of Russian gas. We've 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:50.480 seen that need for an orderly transition to be a 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:54.360 justification for building new gas infrastructure in the US and 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:55.320 elsewhere around the world. 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:57.880 Right we have, and that means there's going to be 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.360 additional lock in of emissions because these assets one s 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:04.600 built will have to be paid for through their use 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:08.000 in the future. But we have also seen a faster 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.679 transition in other places. So even as Europe was struggling 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:15.800 for fossil fuels and building new infrastructure such as liquified 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:19.800 natural gas terminals that would import natural gas rather than 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:23.720 getting it piped from Russia, countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.079 suffered from not having access to gas, and so they 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.400 are now rethinking whether they should rely on gas as 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.240 much when they have access to cheap solar power. 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:34.480 So I want to also ask you to kind of 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:37.800 sketch out what these big endgame moments are like. You know, 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.400 I think at the beginning of cop there's hundreds of 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.040 leaders from around the world usually present, and that'll be 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.480 the case this year. Then there's like ten or twelve 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:49.800 days of kind of the diplomats and the activists and 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:51.640 everybody else kind of buckling down to business and it's 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:53.719 a little less flashy. Then there's a moment at the 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.920 very end where we get the high drama and everyone 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:58.959 kind of tunes back in to see whether or not 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:01.480 there's going to be a final We've seen in the 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.640 past two years that we've been covering these things together, 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:06.480 there's been tiers on stage at the very end. There 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:10.480 have been angry walkouts or almost walkouts. You've spent this 0:10:10.640 --> 0:10:13.640 year trying to understand sultanal job or how he works, 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:16.040 how he wields power. So how do you think this 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:18.600 year's endgame is going to play out with him sort 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:21.120 of at the podium bringing this all to a close. 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:25.080 Yeah, it's quite intense because you've been working for this 0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:28.160 two week period of intense work. You're putting in ten 0:10:28.280 --> 0:10:32.160 twelve fourteen hour days. By the end, people are running 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:35.560 on very little sleep, and so you do get a 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:39.800 lot of emotions coming out during the final negotiations. And 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:42.800 the tears you mentioned were at COP twenty six where 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.880 there was a last minute change that India and China 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:50.920 and the US requested around the word phase out being 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:55.120 turned into phase down and island nations were furious, but 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:58.679 they let it go and Alok Sharma, who is the 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:03.439 president in the UK, car up broke down. And if 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.560 you're speaking plainly, there isn't very much difference between face 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:09.120 down and phase out. But if it goes in a 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.120 document that's agreed by two hundred countries, there is a difference. 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:16.000 One says you will eventually not use fossil fuels. The 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:19.160 other says you'll just keep using less and less fossil fuels. 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:22.040 So it was a fight. May I don't know if 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:25.240 it was worth having, but there you go. We face 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.880 those situations as we go into the negotiations. Now, Sultan 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:32.839 al Jabber as President has a pedigree of running big organizations. 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:37.280 He built a clean energy company called Mastar and is 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.600 now chairman of it. He now runs at Not one 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:43.839 of the world's largest oil companies, and he has been 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:47.560 empowered by the President of UE to be a minister 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.400 in the government and commit to duties as a minister. 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.200 But the role he is sitting in now is a 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.440 very unique role. You have to bring two hundred countries 0:11:56.480 --> 0:12:00.680 to a consensus. It requires lots of delicate conversations, lots 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.440 of give and take, and these are things that, at 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.520 least from our reporting, are not things that Sultan al 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:09.520 Jabber has done in the past. He's been a climate diplomat, 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.600 but he hasn't been the leader who runs and who 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:15.640 decides which is the place that there will be most 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:19.920 agreement on. So that's probably the final test for Sultan 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:23.920 al Jabber. Now that he has an agenda that seems 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:27.319 to move the ball a little bit, will he actually 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:29.760 be able to get all those countries to agree. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.160 So let's talk about money, because that's certainly one of 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:36.840 the levers that are very wealthy country like the UAE 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.040 has to pull here. It's always been one of the 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:43.600 core central frustrations and disputes between rich and poor countries 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:45.640 at cop where is the climate money going to come from? 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:47.959 Just now, before we sat down to talk, there was 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.120 a headline that ran that for the first time, after 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:53.240 a decade of failing to reach one hundred billion dollars, 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.960 the rich countries in the world, the Europeans, the United States, 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.040 have finally met the goal of honeying up one hundred 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.960 billion dollars in a year to help finance the climate 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:05.400 needs of poorer countries. So I'm wondering with that as 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.520 a sort of really positive sign coming into a week 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:09.440 before COP. Do you think there's a deal to be 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.600 had between rich countries and the global south on climate finance? 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:17.080 What role can Sultan ol Jaber and the UAE play 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.440 and kind of bringing together leap forward in one of 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.760 the places where the world's always lag behind. 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.959 So climate finance becomes a very complex issue very quickly. 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:31.160 And earlier this year we had avinash Parsod, who's an 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.640 economist in Barbados, come up on the podcast and really 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.200 explain it in detail, and we'll link to that episode 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:39.600 in the show notes. But the simplest way he put 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.560 it was to think about it in three buckets. The 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.640 biggest bucket is money that would go to word projects 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:50.200 that would reduce emissions. Second biggest bucket is money that 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.680 would go to deal with the impacts so adapt to 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.480 the warming. And then the third biggest bucket would be 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.559 to compensate for the damages that would be caused by 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:03.240 climate impacts going into COP. The one hundred billion dollar 0:14:03.320 --> 0:14:06.600 figure is for the first two buckets that was agreed 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:08.800 on in two thousand and nine and was supposed to 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.880 be met by twenty twenty. That slowly developed countries would 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:15.080 start giving more and more money every year, and buy 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.920 twenty twenty they will give one hundred billion dollars every 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.480 year until twenty twenty five, and then there will be 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.520 more money coming. But that's for another COP. Finally, it 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.200 seems according to our reporting that twenty twenty two is 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:31.280 the year they finally met it. But for context, the 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.040 total energy transition money that we need is four and 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.400 a half trillion dollars, so it's kind of small money. 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:40.960 We're already now looking at the third bucket, the loss 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.880 and damage bucket, the bucket that caught some agreement at 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:46.280 COP twenty seven that there would be a fund created, 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.160 and we know now that at COP twenty eight there 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.600 is an outline for what that fund would look like, 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:54.520 and those details will be hashed out in the negotiations. 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.840 This is where as you say, UAE as a rich country, 0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.640 could make a real difference. 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.440 And damage the third bucket. I mean, this is something 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.840 that gets called, you know, with some dispute behind it, 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:09.920 climate reparations. Right, let's just explain how if this lost 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.480 and damage fund existed, how it would work, who would 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:14.560 get to drawn and where the money might come from. 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:17.280 Yeah, those are very live conversations and that's what's going 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.560 to be negotiated on the outline we've got so far 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.680 is that in the interim, the World Bank is likely 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.600 to host the fund. That fund will have to have 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:33.080 contributions and very specifically voluntary contributions from all kinds of people, 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.640 not just countries. Maybe philanthropies will put money, maybe corporations 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:39.160 will put money in it. We don't know what the sum, 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.640 what the total sum of that fund would be. We 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:44.960 also don't yet have rules on how money will be 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.200 drawn out from that fund or who will be eligible 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:49.280 to draw that money out. 0:15:55.800 --> 0:16:10.640 We'll be back right after the break. If one of 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.520 the big ongoing themes of UN climate summits is you 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.440 know where is the money? You know, one of the 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:22.080 answers is the UAE is extremely wealthy financial center. What 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:24.800 can we expect to see the UA do to kind 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:26.960 of bridge one of these constant gaps? 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.720 So a good faith contribution coming to the Lost and 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:34.840 Damage Fund from developed countries and the UA would be 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:38.800 very very welcome by developing countries, and we're talking about 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.760 it in billions of dollars. We know that the European 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:45.160 Union has already said it will put in quotes substantial 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.480 amount of money towards the fund. We also heard from 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.200 John Kerry, the Special Climate on y for the US, 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.880 who said the US will put several million dollars and 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:58.320 that coused a ton of outrage among green groups. The UA, 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.480 we understand, has a desire to contribute billions of dollars, 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:03.760 but I think it's going to try and bring as 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.600 many people to the table to contribute money towards this 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.520 fund so that the fund can be substantial, and that 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.720 would go a long way in making sure developing countries 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:16.160 sign off on some of the major commitments at COP. 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.280 So once this starts for the next two weeks, what 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.919 is sultanel Jober doing during cop And I know we 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.359 are talking about it like it's just one man, but 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:28.960 there's obviously a large staff behind him. But what does 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.960 exerting the role of president or leader look like in 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:34.439 a diplomatic circus like this? 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.840 It is a lot of listening to different groups on 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.720 what are the sticking points, what are the big barriers 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:45.000 for agreement, and then coming to a place where the 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:48.359 president is able to figure out what could be compromises 0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.440 that one country group could make with another country. Group, 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.560 so there could be agreement between them, and he left 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:57.399 to do this again and again and again for the 0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.640 many things that are there on the agenda. So it's 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:04.040 an exhausting process. Already. He's been doing that all through 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.720 the year, the listening tour that he talks about, where 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:09.240 he's gone around the world trying to understand what is 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:13.520 it that countries want. But now in these two concentrated weeks, 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.240 all that work is going to either pay off or backfire. 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.040 Why did the United airb Memorates want to play host here? 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.480 What's in it for a country bringing this really difficult 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:25.800 challenge to their doorstep. 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:30.200 This would be the biggest diplomatic exercise that the UE 0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:35.040 has committed to in history. We expect many, many were 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:38.280 leaders showing up in one country. And yes, it's a 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:41.800 big oil economy, it's rich, but it's never hosted anything 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:45.480 of this heft before. So the UE is very clear 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.440 it wants to show itself as the place in geopolitics 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:52.520 where it can speak to the US and to Russia, 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:55.280 it can speak to China and to the EU that 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:58.920 it can be a champion of small island countries and 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:03.240 get more from developed countries. It's a big ask and 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:05.920 if Sultan al Jabber can pull that off, that's going 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.679 to bring plenty of kudos to the UAE, something that 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:12.840 they would like to have. But if it goes south, 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:16.320 it's also going to risk making true all the criticisms 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:19.080 that have been laid on it as an oil economy 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:20.760 trying to host a climate conference. 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:24.480 So there are two hot wars underway at the moment 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:28.840 right Russia's still invading Ukraine and Israel is in the 0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:31.439 middle of an invasion of Gaza that followed the attack 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.920 by Hamas inside of Israel. It's a really bad vibe 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:38.520 for a global climate summit that's all about cooperation. So 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:42.920 give me your sense. Does that sort of hostile backdrop 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:46.000 actually affect the proceedings when you're in Dubai? Does it 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:47.240 shape the outcome in anyway? 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:49.959 Well, we can look at what happened when it was 0:19:50.200 --> 0:19:54.480 just Russia invading Ukraine, which had happened early in twenty 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:57.320 twenty two, and going into COP twenty seven, we could 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:01.119 already see lots of talk about energy cit security, about 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:06.320 quote unquote orderly transition, and perhaps that did lead to 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:09.840 not as ambitious an outcome from COP twenty seven as 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:15.240 you would have expected. The Israel Hamas conflict has less 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:18.879 impact on the energy world has not yet had a 0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:22.720 huge impact on prices of fossil fuels, so there isn't 0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.760 a clear outcome yet. But again it's a live situation. 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:30.000 Things could go south very quickly. That said, though, there 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:33.760 are some tailwinds that we should recognize to the fact 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.919 that US and China are talking. That Joe Biden and 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:41.600 Chi Jinping met at a conference in the US is 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:46.560 a tailwind for an agreement at COP. So geopolitics has 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:51.159 always complicated. Bringing two hundred countries to one consensus is 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:55.120 never easy. None of what's happening in the world right 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:56.840 now makes it any easier. 0:20:57.240 --> 0:20:59.560 There's one geopolitical wrinkle that I want to ask you about. 0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:01.560 This is we're about to go into COP twenty eight. 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:04.879 We don't know where COP twenty nine is going to be, 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:08.320 and that's because of geopolitics. Can you explain why we 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:09.880 don't know where we would be a year from now? 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:13.680 So cops rotate between different regions of the world. COP 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:17.199 twenty nine was supposed to happen in Eastern Europe, and 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:20.600 Russia is blocking any of its allied countries in Eastern 0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:24.119 Europe from hosting COP. So we are in that place 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:27.879 where even if countries do want to host COP, Russia 0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:30.680 is going to veto their decision, and so by UNF 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:33.600 Triple C rules which are still quite hard to understand, 0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:36.080