WEBVTT - Jack Bogle Remembered on Masters in Business (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Boomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Radio SAD News. This week, as Vanguard founder Jack Vogel

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<v Speaker 1>passed away at the age of eighty nine, I had

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<v Speaker 1>the great privilege and honor of sitting down with him

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<v Speaker 1>in March for a full ninety minutes, and I just

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<v Speaker 1>have to share a little bit about that experience with you. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The Vanguard campus is just immense. It's grown over the

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<v Speaker 1>past forty five years. It's out in Malvern, Pennsylvania. I

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<v Speaker 1>picked up my engineer, Charlie volmer Um locally and we drove.

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<v Speaker 1>Took us about two hours before traffic. We left about

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<v Speaker 1>five in the morning to get there, and the place

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<v Speaker 1>is just quite amazing. We got a tour of it.

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<v Speaker 1>We saw their trading room. It was it was really astonishing.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you finally get to meet the man and

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<v Speaker 1>the legend himself. Um. He comes into the conference room.

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<v Speaker 1>He's kind of slight, he's a little hunched over. He

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<v Speaker 1>moved slowly, and I'm thinking, gee, maybe, uh, this isn't

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<v Speaker 1>gonna work out. And then he sits down and puts

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<v Speaker 1>on his headphones. He has a headphone with a mic

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<v Speaker 1>that comes around. He wears it as a set and

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<v Speaker 1>as soon as he started speaking, it was clear this

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<v Speaker 1>guy as sharp as attack, full of vim and vigor

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<v Speaker 1>and energy, and still has something to teach us in,

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<v Speaker 1>something to prove. It was a whirlwind ninety minutes. Essentially

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<v Speaker 1>my job was to just give him a little nudge

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<v Speaker 1>and get out of the way. Uh. And it was

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<v Speaker 1>quite an experience. It's something that I will always be

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<v Speaker 1>thrilled that I got to do. Uh. He was in

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<v Speaker 1>fine form and great voice. As you'll hear. Everything he

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<v Speaker 1>covered was really just classic Vogel. Uh. Not only was

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<v Speaker 1>it a privilege, but it was also an amazing conversation,

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<v Speaker 1>mostly because of Jack. I had very little to do

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<v Speaker 1>with it. So, with no further ado, my Master's in

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<v Speaker 1>Business Conversation with Vanguard founder Jack Bogel via is Masters

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<v Speaker 1>in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. I know

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<v Speaker 1>I say this every week that I have a special guest,

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<v Speaker 1>but this week I have a super special guest, the

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<v Speaker 1>one the only Jack Bogel, founder and Chairman emeritus of

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<v Speaker 1>the Vanguard Group, essentially the creator of the world's first

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<v Speaker 1>index mutual fund for individuals. In I could read your

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<v Speaker 1>CV which will essentially take up the entire show. There's

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<v Speaker 1>so much stuff to to talk about with you. You

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<v Speaker 1>are a legend in the industry and maybe the person

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<v Speaker 1>who has had the single biggest impact on investing of anyone.

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<v Speaker 1>But let's just start from that beginning. Undergrad you with thesis.

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<v Speaker 1>You're in college in Princeton in nineteen fifty nineteen fifty one,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're thinking about why do actively managed funds, why

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<v Speaker 1>do so many of them underperform the market? How did

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<v Speaker 1>that come about for a college Well, came about by

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<v Speaker 1>a great accident, and that is I was majoring in economics.

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<v Speaker 1>I was looking for a subject for my senior thesis,

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<v Speaker 1>just a requirement still at Princeton, sixtensive, extensive document. Mine

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<v Speaker 1>turned out to be maybe a hundred and thirty five

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<v Speaker 1>forty pages, and Uh, I didn't know what to write about,

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<v Speaker 1>but I wanted to write about something that no one

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<v Speaker 1>had never written about before, and they're In December nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>forty nine, I was reading Fortune magazine, which I did

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<v Speaker 1>as part of my economics background, just voluntarily, and there

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<v Speaker 1>was an article called Big Money in Boston, and it

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<v Speaker 1>was about the mutual fund industry. Described this tiny industry. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe two and a half billion dollars for the industry

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<v Speaker 1>as tiny but contentious, and I thought, well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm kind of tiny and I'm kind of contentious, so

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<v Speaker 1>I'll write about it, and I wrote the thesis enabled

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<v Speaker 1>me to graduate with high honors from Princeton. Very pretty

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<v Speaker 1>good job. Not a great thesis, but not bad for

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<v Speaker 1>somebody a year out of his teens. Let me let

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<v Speaker 1>me push back at you and say, that was an

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<v Speaker 1>incredibly insightful thesis. The insight that you derived at a

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<v Speaker 1>very young ages the cost of all this active management.

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<v Speaker 1>They were unable to overcome that bogey even to today,

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<v Speaker 1>what should really be so obvious to everybody. Lots of

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<v Speaker 1>folks still haven't seemed to figure that out. So what

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<v Speaker 1>makes me stop and pausing and ask you this question,

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<v Speaker 1>how did you ever come to that conclusion at such

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<v Speaker 1>a young age without the universe of information we have

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<v Speaker 1>available to us today. Will to begin with the thesis

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<v Speaker 1>title was the economic role of the investment company, And

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<v Speaker 1>the overall of the overriding and focus of that thesis

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<v Speaker 1>was mutual funds are there to serve investors. Put the

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<v Speaker 1>investors first. And I talked about reducing sales loads, reducing

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<v Speaker 1>management fees, focusing on investing and non marketing, things of

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<v Speaker 1>that nature. And that's what the industry in my in

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<v Speaker 1>my formula and would have to do to reach its

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<v Speaker 1>great potential. And I did not, actually, to be very

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<v Speaker 1>clear on this, I did not assemble any data. But

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<v Speaker 1>I looked at about fifteen leading mutual funds and looked

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<v Speaker 1>at their records, and without adding and dividing and getting averages,

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<v Speaker 1>it was very clear that very few of them, if

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<v Speaker 1>any at that time, could could outperform the S and

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<v Speaker 1>P five undered indecks. So it was basically anecdotal. Although

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<v Speaker 1>this industry in those days was very much a commodity

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<v Speaker 1>in a way kind of commodity. The major funds of

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<v Speaker 1>those days we're just basic basically buying long lists of

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<v Speaker 1>blue chip stocks. You could call him Dow Jones Industrial

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<v Speaker 1>average funds, or later because the SMP wasn't very enough

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<v Speaker 1>well known, then you could call him standard and Poor's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of funds. They were down the middle. They had fluctuations,

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<v Speaker 1>very similar volatility, very similar to the index. So so

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<v Speaker 1>even back in the late forties early fifties, mutual funds

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<v Speaker 1>were closet indexers. Sure, absolutely Huh, that's quite that's quite fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's fast forward a little bit. So now you're

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<v Speaker 1>working as chairman of Wellington Management Company, and long story short,

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<v Speaker 1>you said the most unwise decision of your career. You

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<v Speaker 1>do a merger doesn't work out and they end up

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<v Speaker 1>um breaking it down from from uh lieutenant to private

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<v Speaker 1>so to speak, and not less than private, less than private.

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<v Speaker 1>And you wanted to run a fund and they said, well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, because of this M and A, we don't

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<v Speaker 1>want you running an active fund. If you want to

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<v Speaker 1>put together how did how did the index come out

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<v Speaker 1>of that? That job changed? Okay, well let me say

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<v Speaker 1>my first job and I was thirty five years old

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<v Speaker 1>and Mr Morgan, the founder of Walter L. Morgan, the

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<v Speaker 1>founder of Wellington, called me into his office. Wellington was

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<v Speaker 1>in trouble. Wellingcoln Fund was in trouble, its performance was slipping,

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<v Speaker 1>and Wellington Management Company was in trouble because we were

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<v Speaker 1>basically a one product if you will company up conservative

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<v Speaker 1>balance fund. We were, for the want of a better metaphor,

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<v Speaker 1>the bagel of the mutual fund industry, the the hard,

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<v Speaker 1>not sweet, um nutritious safe choice and in the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>balance fund in the industry, and people stopped buying bagels

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<v Speaker 1>and started buying, if you will, donuts. We came into

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<v Speaker 1>the go go era. So all these fancy growth funds,

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<v Speaker 1>high powered buying stocks that had no investment, no intrinsic

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<v Speaker 1>investment meri at all. This is the mid to late sixties,

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<v Speaker 1>the nifty fifty and that sort of the go go era,

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<v Speaker 1>and the go goes came and the go goes win.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you're in the bagel business and nobody is

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<v Speaker 1>buying bagels, and the balanced fund share of industry sales

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<v Speaker 1>actually dropped to one percent, and so I had to

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<v Speaker 1>do something, and Mr Morgan told me to do it,

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<v Speaker 1>and I talked to a couple of firms about merging,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I came across this firm in Boston and

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<v Speaker 1>it had a fund called I Vest Fund, one of

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<v Speaker 1>the go go funds of the day. They had some

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<v Speaker 1>apparently bright young managers that I had kind of common

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<v Speaker 1>cause with, and they had a pension business. So we

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<v Speaker 1>got the new managers that would save welling and fund.

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<v Speaker 1>We got the go go fund that we needed to

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<v Speaker 1>stay in business, and we got into a new business

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<v Speaker 1>that we thought we could be very successful. It was

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<v Speaker 1>from words of one syllable, two syllables, brilliant. I'm Barry Ridholts.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My

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<v Speaker 1>extra special guest today is Jack Bogel. He is the

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<v Speaker 1>founder of Vanguard Group and essentially the inventor of the

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<v Speaker 1>index funds. Jack, we were speaking earlier about how a

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<v Speaker 1>crisis at Wellington, which was the predecessor you worked at

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<v Speaker 1>to the Vanguard Group, actually led to the creation of

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<v Speaker 1>the Vanguard Group. Tell us how that came about. Okay, well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's start with the fact that in doing this merger,

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<v Speaker 1>which I was eager to do, I gave up too

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<v Speaker 1>many votes in the company and so when everything fell apart,

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<v Speaker 1>the market went down, uh, and so on. Right at

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<v Speaker 1>the as the market was going down in seventy four,

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<v Speaker 1>it would be to climb the happy partners um fragmented

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<v Speaker 1>and there were four of them, and there was one

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<v Speaker 1>of me, and they had packed the board of directors.

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<v Speaker 1>I was I was never very political, and they fired me.

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<v Speaker 1>The guys that had caused this catastrophe, fired the one

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<v Speaker 1>that was trying to avoid it, and so I was

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<v Speaker 1>out of a job. So what could I do, I

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<v Speaker 1>could go try and find work for another firm. I

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<v Speaker 1>had a young family living here. I didn't want to move.

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<v Speaker 1>I was very angry about what happened, of course, but

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<v Speaker 1>you know what is is, and so I decided my

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<v Speaker 1>best chance was to talk to the directors of the

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<v Speaker 1>Wellington Fund, this fund so badly heard the ash the

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<v Speaker 1>diamond in our crown, and say, look, the management company

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<v Speaker 1>has fired me, but you, you're a slightly different group,

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<v Speaker 1>can keep me. And we'll tell the management company what

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<v Speaker 1>to do. We will be in charge of the administration

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<v Speaker 1>of the fund, ending necessary to make it work, and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll be in charge of appraising the advisor and taking

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<v Speaker 1>whatever steps we want. Will be independent of the advisor.

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<v Speaker 1>And uh I wanted to take over distribution to but

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<v Speaker 1>the directors wouldn't go along with that. So we became

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<v Speaker 1>a little administrative company. And and uh I wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>glamorous name. So I found the name Vanguard. When I

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<v Speaker 1>first learned about that. We go from Wellington, the the

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<v Speaker 1>the land battles of the Napoleonic Wars, the Duke of Wellington,

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<v Speaker 1>the naval battles of the Napoleonic War, and there's Lord

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<v Speaker 1>Nelson at the Battle of the Nile, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>most complete, the most complete naval victory in history to

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<v Speaker 1>this day. Uh and uh, He writes to this dispatch

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<v Speaker 1>that I see from the deck of HMS Vanguard his flagship,

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<v Speaker 1>and that sounds like a great name for a for

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<v Speaker 1>a company, perfect, perfect from Wellington Funds. How did you

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<v Speaker 1>actually form the Vanguard Group? Well, the idea was that

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<v Speaker 1>the funds would create a new company that they owned,

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<v Speaker 1>they would capitalize. Capitalization was very small. I'm gonna guess

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<v Speaker 1>maybe two dollars. This is a very small company at

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<v Speaker 1>that point. Actually, the total assets of the funds were

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<v Speaker 1>down and around one point five billion, So we appen

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<v Speaker 1>lots of the fund and and Welling and Management Company

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<v Speaker 1>had to take it because the directors of the funds

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<v Speaker 1>were in charge of the contracts with Welling and So

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<v Speaker 1>you really backed George your way back into the company

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<v Speaker 1>after they had fired you as chairman. Well, yes, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a fair statement. But techno, from a tactical standpoint,

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<v Speaker 1>I've been the chairman of the Welling and Fund all

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<v Speaker 1>along gotch so I have the same old continuity that

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<v Speaker 1>I had going back to nineteen just post merger, they

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<v Speaker 1>this was a bactor. So how do you go from

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<v Speaker 1>that to the Vanguard Group. Well, we put a name

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<v Speaker 1>in the company because we had I think in those

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<v Speaker 1>days maybe a dozen funds and we didn't want a

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<v Speaker 1>dozen separate companies to match. So we had to have

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<v Speaker 1>a core central company and UH that would pool resources

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<v Speaker 1>of all the funds and provide all the services. And

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<v Speaker 1>we had allocation methods between the funds. And it was

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<v Speaker 1>all good until we decided to take over distribution, which

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<v Speaker 1>was our Let me, I'm a little bit ahead of

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<v Speaker 1>my help. Let me, let me go back and say

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<v Speaker 1>to the first thing. We were not allowed to go

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<v Speaker 1>into the business of investment management, that was theirs. We

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<v Speaker 1>were not allowed to go into the business that was

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<v Speaker 1>there as being willing, that was there. The active side

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<v Speaker 1>you couldn't do and we couldn't. We couldn't go into management.

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<v Speaker 1>We didn't distinguish between active and passive and those days

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<v Speaker 1>not in those days, there weren't an index, right, So

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<v Speaker 1>so if you couldn't go into management, how are you

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<v Speaker 1>able to set up the Vanguard five hundred wouldn't be patient. So, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>we were not allowed to go into distribution because that

0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 1>was welling coins function too, So we had this little

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:41.480
<v Speaker 1>administrative company looking over. However, had the legal responsibility and

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 1>board responsibility to look over the advisor and distributor. So

0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.320
<v Speaker 1>we were in charge. And so my first time I

0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.200
<v Speaker 1>knew a company that was an administrative company was not

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be anything for me. I mean, I like

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.320
<v Speaker 1>the administration. I know how well it has to be done,

0:13:56.640 --> 0:14:00.040
<v Speaker 1>shareholder record keeping and all that, but that's just not

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 1>the kind of challenge I was looking for. And any

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:05.000
<v Speaker 1>company it's going to succeed, it's gonna have to control

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.160
<v Speaker 1>the kind of funds he wants to they want to run,

0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.240
<v Speaker 1>the kind of distribution they want to have, who will

0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:12.960
<v Speaker 1>buy the funds, who will sell them, things of that nature.

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 1>So we have a company that's just in this little

0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:20.000
<v Speaker 1>administrative box, and I'm thinking, let's do something. So at

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the very first board meeting of the new company, after

0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 1>we got an organized, I say we got to start

0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:29.320
<v Speaker 1>an index fund. And the directors say you're not allowed

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 1>to get new investment management. And I say, this fund

0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:37.760
<v Speaker 1>isn't managed, and believe it or not, they bought it.

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:41.840
<v Speaker 1>So in other words, you describe the index fund as

0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>just hey, it's the five largest companies in America. There's

0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 1>no manager, nobody's in charge. It's just it's an unmanaged

0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>broad index. And they said, oh, go do that. They said, well,

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.520
<v Speaker 1>I won't say it was that easy, but that was

0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.320
<v Speaker 1>the final decision. I get the sense from from what

0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 1>you've described right that they were kind of, let's let's

0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:04.720
<v Speaker 1>let Jack go do that. He'll be out of our hair.

0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:08.360
<v Speaker 1>It'll keep them busy and fine, won't cause anybody trouble.

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:10.920
<v Speaker 1>I think you're pretty much on the mark. This week

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.040
<v Speaker 1>on Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio, I have an

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 1>extra special guest. His name is Jack Bogel. He is

0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:22.000
<v Speaker 1>the founder of the Vanguard Group, the inventor of the

0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 1>index funds, and author of far too many books to mention.

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.480
<v Speaker 1>I've been speaking with Jack here in the headquarters of

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:34.120
<v Speaker 1>of Vanguard, and just outside the conference room we were

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:39.320
<v Speaker 1>sitting on the wall is a framed print, and on

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 1>that print it says, stamp out index funds. Jack, What

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:48.000
<v Speaker 1>on earth does that mean? That means Wall Street couldn't

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.800
<v Speaker 1>make any money out of index funds, and so Wall

0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Street didn't like it. We had an initial initial public offering.

0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 1>I went all over New York so many times to

0:15:56.800 --> 0:15:59.920
<v Speaker 1>try and find underwriters, and finally got the four large

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>retail underwriters, bas Dan, Winter, Reynolds, uh I forget who

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the other one was. Reynolds. Okay, they were the biggest

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 1>guys in the business. And they said, we can do

0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.120
<v Speaker 1>a hundred and fifty million dollars with this great new idea.

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:16.880
<v Speaker 1>They did eleven million dollars, so so less than ten percent.

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 1>And they came in to see me when the underwriting

0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 1>was over and said, you know, I said to them, look,

0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 1>we can't even buy around lots of bois And they said, well,

0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:27.640
<v Speaker 1>why don't we just give everybody their bondy back and

0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:29.560
<v Speaker 1>pull it? And I said, are you kidding me? We

0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:32.880
<v Speaker 1>have the world's first index fund. And it's the world's

0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>first index fund. Period. You don't have to say retail,

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of institutional holding at the beginning. It's the

0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 1>world's first index mutual fund, no question about that. And

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.160
<v Speaker 1>and so it got noere It went nowhere fast, eleven

0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:49.480
<v Speaker 1>million dollar launched. What year was that? That was in

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 1>nine seventy six, eleven million dollars and everybody laughed, and

0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:58.440
<v Speaker 1>nobody thought there was any future to index funds. But

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that's exactly right, that that just astonishing well. You had

0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 1>incredible foresight to say. And it makes sense that the

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.440
<v Speaker 1>four largest retail shops would want to participate in this

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.640
<v Speaker 1>because this is a simple, easy way for their retail

0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:17.360
<v Speaker 1>client to get exposure to the market, fast, easy, relatively inexpensive.

0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.639
<v Speaker 1>It should have except that when the when the client

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 1>buys this fund, it's to be held forever. They don't

0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:26.560
<v Speaker 1>trade it, and the fund doesn't do any trading. There's

0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.520
<v Speaker 1>no brokerage business generated by the fun So this was

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.640
<v Speaker 1>not a happy moment for Wall Street and they looked

0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:34.520
<v Speaker 1>at it, I think as a some kind of the

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:38.600
<v Speaker 1>beginning of a of a communicable disease and it had

0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 1>to it had to be stamped out. The Center for

0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:44.639
<v Speaker 1>Disease Control had to come in. And did they really

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:46.959
<v Speaker 1>perceive you as a threat or did they kind of

0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.960
<v Speaker 1>laugh it off? And yeah, yeah, best of luck with that, Jack, Yeah,

0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:53.360
<v Speaker 1>I'd say pretty much that way. Although we did in

0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 1>a couple of years ago for one of the fund's

0:17:55.520 --> 0:17:59.359
<v Speaker 1>anniversaries we all got together, but the underwriters, all four underwriters,

0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.480
<v Speaker 1>and also and the writers and their lawyers and our

0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 1>lawyer lawyer singular. We only add one on those days

0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.679
<v Speaker 1>and they're all good people. You know, I don't. Uh.

0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:10.600
<v Speaker 1>Then we all do our best in this life in

0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.120
<v Speaker 1>very different ways of work. So it worked out. Well,

0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:16.919
<v Speaker 1>it had to start, and it did start. So here's

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:21.240
<v Speaker 1>the question that I could ask you. Forty plus years later,

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:26.720
<v Speaker 1>Vanguard is now running three point something trillion dollars. Four

0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.960
<v Speaker 1>trillion is not that far off in the distance, an

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>enormous success, one of the single largest asset managers in

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:38.840
<v Speaker 1>the world. How come nobody ever said, hey, those guys

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:42.280
<v Speaker 1>are onto something, we should be a competitor to them.

0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:45.119
<v Speaker 1>How did how did that never come up anywhere along

0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:49.000
<v Speaker 1>the line. Well, the answer is so simple. Index funds

0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.639
<v Speaker 1>have a real problem. All the damn money goes to

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:58.120
<v Speaker 1>the investors, right, Managers can't take anything they're not managing well.

0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.479
<v Speaker 1>But you're taking ten or fifth team basis points and

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:05.360
<v Speaker 1>on trillions of dollars, that's not nothing. Well, nobody expected

0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:07.400
<v Speaker 1>to get the trillions of dollars, believe me, not an

0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:11.200
<v Speaker 1>eleven million. But but okay, in seventy four, seventy six,

0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.000
<v Speaker 1>it's eleven million. But by the time you get to

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:18.800
<v Speaker 1>the mid nineteen nineties, you're hundreds of billions of dollars.

0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.879
<v Speaker 1>And then I think you hit a trillion? Was it

0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 1>late nineties? So even didn't anybody say, hey, those guys

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:32.439
<v Speaker 1>in Pennsylvania, they have a trillion dollars, why don't we

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.200
<v Speaker 1>do what they're doing? Well, it's a prince of problem.

0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.480
<v Speaker 1>And then eventually the big guys had to Fidelity had

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.760
<v Speaker 1>to have They were dragged kicking and screaming in indexing,

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:45.280
<v Speaker 1>and they have to be competitive on price. They can

0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.439
<v Speaker 1>still make all the money they want, and it's an

0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.719
<v Speaker 1>awful lot on the actively managed funds. So it's kind

0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:53.439
<v Speaker 1>of a lost leader for Fidelity. But what about others

0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:57.000
<v Speaker 1>Black Rock and American Century and all these other entities,

0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:01.040
<v Speaker 1>Schwab offers and index It seems everybody off there's some

0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:05.200
<v Speaker 1>version of the SMP index. Yeah. Well, t ro Price

0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:07.880
<v Speaker 1>is a good example. They have a hidden index fund.

0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:11.400
<v Speaker 1>They don't talk much about it. It's kind of expensive

0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:15.480
<v Speaker 1>basis points relative or five, and it's a kind of

0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:18.439
<v Speaker 1>a sideball thing so they can get into the retirement market.

0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:23.920
<v Speaker 1>This has become a marketing business, and right now we're

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 1>seeing this tremendous change in people who realizing the importance

0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:32.120
<v Speaker 1>of low cost and a long term focus. And if

0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:34.640
<v Speaker 1>you just keep those two things in mind, you will

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 1>never do anything but own a broad market index and

0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:42.000
<v Speaker 1>hold it forever. I'm Barry Ridholtz. You're listening to Masters

0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:45.719
<v Speaker 1>in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this

0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:49.119
<v Speaker 1>week is Jack Bogel. He is the founder of the

0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 1>Vanguard Group, inventor of the index funds, author of numerous books.

0:20:54.960 --> 0:20:58.119
<v Speaker 1>Let's jump right back into the issue of costs and

0:20:58.200 --> 0:21:02.400
<v Speaker 1>how they impact investors. You're known as the person who

0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 1>created the index fund but really, which do you think

0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:09.399
<v Speaker 1>is more important, the passive indexing or the fact that

0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:12.879
<v Speaker 1>it's so low cost. Well, it's pretty clear to me

0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:15.879
<v Speaker 1>that passive indexing is the more important because I'm going

0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:17.920
<v Speaker 1>to define cost in a couple of different ways here.

0:21:18.440 --> 0:21:22.720
<v Speaker 1>One is the expense ratio. And our funds. Index funds

0:21:22.760 --> 0:21:25.800
<v Speaker 1>probably average about ten basis points. Are managed funds probably

0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.480
<v Speaker 1>average about thirty five, So there's not that big a difference.

0:21:29.480 --> 0:21:32.000
<v Speaker 1>The industry is up around a hundred and twenty on

0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.040
<v Speaker 1>an unweighted basis And when we talk about basis points,

0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.879
<v Speaker 1>the basis point is just a percentage of So a

0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:41.520
<v Speaker 1>hundred basis points is one percent, ten basis points is

0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:45.040
<v Speaker 1>one tenth of one percent. If you're averaging ten basis points.

0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:50.280
<v Speaker 1>That's a very very inexpensive. It's five five basis points five,

0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:56.479
<v Speaker 1>that's very inexpensive. That is really inexpensive. But that's because

0:21:56.520 --> 0:22:00.040
<v Speaker 1>we have a mutual company owned by its shareholders and

0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:02.480
<v Speaker 1>don't have to deliver profits. And think about this for

0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:05.640
<v Speaker 1>Eminent Parry, that the profit margins in this business can

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:08.960
<v Speaker 1>easily run to be So if you've got a one

0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:13.240
<v Speaker 1>percent expense ratio, you're making fifty basis points on the top.

0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:17.760
<v Speaker 1>So you're you're actually operating at fifty, which is probably

0:22:17.760 --> 0:22:20.960
<v Speaker 1>not too bad because very few people have the scale

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:24.760
<v Speaker 1>that we have developed, have the technology that we've developed,

0:22:25.000 --> 0:22:29.200
<v Speaker 1>have the efficiencies that we've developed. And also I don't

0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:32.919
<v Speaker 1>think this is self serving. Have the bully pulpit that

0:22:33.000 --> 0:22:36.640
<v Speaker 1>we have. You know, imagine Fidelity coming into this business.

0:22:37.240 --> 0:22:40.000
<v Speaker 1>Describe I described that as drag, kicking and screaming to

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:43.200
<v Speaker 1>the business. So here we have kicking and screaming over here,

0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:48.480
<v Speaker 1>and here we have missionary zeal, the bully pulpit. By

0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.520
<v Speaker 1>this is the way, this is the new way. And

0:22:51.600 --> 0:22:56.119
<v Speaker 1>you have an entire universe of evangelists amongst the advisor

0:22:56.200 --> 0:23:00.160
<v Speaker 1>community who have drunk the kool aid and say, hey,

0:23:00.200 --> 0:23:03.520
<v Speaker 1>low cost indexing is the way to go. Following the

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:08.000
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis, it seems like Vanguard was sucking up all

0:23:08.080 --> 0:23:10.879
<v Speaker 1>the money in the room and everybody else wasn't also

0:23:11.040 --> 0:23:15.840
<v Speaker 1>run it also ran are events like the Great Financial Crisis?

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:19.560
<v Speaker 1>Does that sort of shake people out of their false

0:23:19.600 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 1>belief and send them in the direction of, hey, these missionaries.

0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:26.359
<v Speaker 1>Turns out these guys are right. Well, you're certainly right

0:23:26.400 --> 0:23:28.800
<v Speaker 1>in a sense. It's it's not easy to read. But

0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:31.399
<v Speaker 1>what happens when the market goes way down and went

0:23:31.480 --> 0:23:37.280
<v Speaker 1>down fifty rough nine, and all these managers it says,

0:23:37.440 --> 0:23:40.760
<v Speaker 1>we'll manage your money for you. The shareholder has kind

0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:44.000
<v Speaker 1>of led to expect that they will anticipate this and

0:23:44.080 --> 0:23:46.720
<v Speaker 1>not let it happen to them. And they may not

0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:50.520
<v Speaker 1>directly communicate that, but if someone says, well, i'm you know,

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm pretty smart, I'm a smart manager, you would expect

0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:55.560
<v Speaker 1>that the down market they would do a good bit

0:23:55.560 --> 0:23:58.239
<v Speaker 1>better than the market. Well, of course, to begin when

0:23:58.320 --> 0:24:01.879
<v Speaker 1>they can't, because some when some don't. They're all average together,

0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:04.000
<v Speaker 1>and how you're picking one over the other you never

0:24:04.000 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 1>know in advance. You can only guess, and what good.

0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:09.800
<v Speaker 1>Is that? Yeah, exactly, So the down markets do help that.

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.000
<v Speaker 1>But it's also this wave of you know, there's not

0:24:13.040 --> 0:24:17.720
<v Speaker 1>an economics course, there's not an MBA course, and in

0:24:17.720 --> 0:24:23.640
<v Speaker 1>investing or finance that doesn't say basically, indexing is the way.

0:24:24.400 --> 0:24:29.480
<v Speaker 1>It's the data that matters. It's the data and it's

0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:32.080
<v Speaker 1>gonna so instead of I mean, usually if you look

0:24:32.119 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 1>back and see a fund that's done well, you can

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:36.600
<v Speaker 1>pretty much conclude it will not do well in the future.

0:24:36.880 --> 0:24:40.199
<v Speaker 1>Everything reverts to the mean. The index does not. It

0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:43.359
<v Speaker 1>continues to give you your share of the market return.

0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 1>And when you look at the numbers, I mean, one

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:51.800
<v Speaker 1>of my favorite constructions is, uh, the index fund gives

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 1>you the advantage of long term compounding of returns while

0:24:58.080 --> 0:25:03.320
<v Speaker 1>eliminating h the tyranny of long term compounding. Of course,

0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:07.600
<v Speaker 1>so think about it this way. Let's assume the stock

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:10.680
<v Speaker 1>market gives a seven percent return over your life over

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:14.920
<v Speaker 1>thirty years or over fifty years um. If you get

0:25:14.920 --> 0:25:19.560
<v Speaker 1>to seven percent, each dollar goes up three times. If

0:25:19.560 --> 0:25:22.920
<v Speaker 1>you get five percent, that would be seven percent less

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 1>the industry's typical two percent all in cost, you get

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:30.879
<v Speaker 1>ten dollars. Wow, So ten dollars versus thirty dollars a

0:25:30.960 --> 0:25:34.560
<v Speaker 1>huge difference. So you put up of the capital, you

0:25:34.600 --> 0:25:37.560
<v Speaker 1>took the pent of the risk, and you've got thirty

0:25:37.600 --> 0:25:40.399
<v Speaker 1>three percent of the return. As I say to people,

0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 1>if that strikes she was a good deal by all means,

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:47.160
<v Speaker 1>do it. So. Morning Star once famously did a study

0:25:47.359 --> 0:25:50.479
<v Speaker 1>which I'm sure to this day they regret, and the

0:25:50.560 --> 0:25:55.760
<v Speaker 1>study they became, you know, famous for their Star rankings

0:25:55.800 --> 0:25:59.080
<v Speaker 1>of mutual funds. And I've written about this. You could

0:25:59.119 --> 0:26:02.720
<v Speaker 1>google this people and find this. Someone internally did a

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:06.600
<v Speaker 1>study and said, if you don't have access to morning

0:26:06.640 --> 0:26:09.760
<v Speaker 1>Start data, but you just looked at a single data

0:26:09.840 --> 0:26:13.320
<v Speaker 1>point across the universe of mutual funds, what would be

0:26:13.400 --> 0:26:15.720
<v Speaker 1>the most helpful Would it be the track record, would

0:26:15.720 --> 0:26:18.200
<v Speaker 1>it be the manager? Would it And it turned out

0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:22.119
<v Speaker 1>that if you forgot about everything else and only picked

0:26:22.240 --> 0:26:27.600
<v Speaker 1>the lowest cost funds, that generated the highest returns going forward.

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 1>So how that makes me ask the question how important

0:26:32.680 --> 0:26:37.480
<v Speaker 1>are keeping costs low? Two investors? Well, when you give

0:26:37.520 --> 0:26:41.280
<v Speaker 1>the statement that it's only cost that matters, I'm inclined

0:26:41.280 --> 0:26:46.280
<v Speaker 1>to say, as the kids would say, Mary, duh, it's

0:26:46.320 --> 0:26:49.840
<v Speaker 1>it seems obvious after the fact. But for the longest

0:26:49.960 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>periods of time people. So let's let me digress and

0:26:54.080 --> 0:26:57.080
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about hedge funds. While all this

0:26:57.200 --> 0:27:00.360
<v Speaker 1>money is flowing a vanguard over the past decade since

0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:03.440
<v Speaker 1>the financial crisis, you guys went from a trillion to

0:27:03.560 --> 0:27:07.280
<v Speaker 1>over three trillion. The other segment of the market that

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:11.040
<v Speaker 1>attracted a ton of money was the hedge fund industry,

0:27:11.040 --> 0:27:15.679
<v Speaker 1>which charges two percents forget five basis points two percent

0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:20.080
<v Speaker 1>of the assets under management, plus of the profits. And

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:24.440
<v Speaker 1>they also scaled up across ten thousand funds to three

0:27:24.480 --> 0:27:29.040
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars. How do you explain, despite the obvious duh,

0:27:29.080 --> 0:27:32.000
<v Speaker 1>how do you explain so much money flowing to a

0:27:32.040 --> 0:27:37.080
<v Speaker 1>group with such high expenses, well, greed, the buyer's greed

0:27:37.119 --> 0:27:39.679
<v Speaker 1>and perhaps even the manager's greed because those are very

0:27:39.760 --> 0:27:43.639
<v Speaker 1>high costs. But people are looking for a better way.

0:27:44.359 --> 0:27:46.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's pretty easy. I've done a lot of

0:27:46.040 --> 0:27:47.480
<v Speaker 1>work on this. You may have read some of it

0:27:47.800 --> 0:27:49.960
<v Speaker 1>to forecast what the stock market return is going to

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:54.360
<v Speaker 1>be within reasonable magnitudes over time, not not in year

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:59.480
<v Speaker 1>by year, over decades, and uh so you know where

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:01.560
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna be roughly in the stock market. And you

0:28:01.600 --> 0:28:04.960
<v Speaker 1>say a pension pan, and pension plans are very heavy

0:28:05.000 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 1>part of the of the hedge fund business because they

0:28:07.760 --> 0:28:10.359
<v Speaker 1>don't have to worry about the high taxes generated by

0:28:10.600 --> 0:28:13.720
<v Speaker 1>by hedge funds. And so they say, we've got to

0:28:13.720 --> 0:28:16.960
<v Speaker 1>have more. And someone coast comes and shows them their

0:28:17.000 --> 0:28:20.200
<v Speaker 1>past record and guess what they put the S and

0:28:20.280 --> 0:28:23.440
<v Speaker 1>P five to shame. Of course they wouldn't show you

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:27.119
<v Speaker 1>the record if they didn't, So a little survivorship bias

0:28:27.160 --> 0:28:30.119
<v Speaker 1>built into that. You sure that, well, the survivorship bias

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:34.359
<v Speaker 1>build into it. But most of all, there's it ignores

0:28:34.400 --> 0:28:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the fact of life in this business. It's everywhere reversion

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:43.200
<v Speaker 1>to the mean. Biblically, put Barry, the last shall be first,

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:45.920
<v Speaker 1>on the first shall be last. And it happens to

0:28:46.040 --> 0:28:49.760
<v Speaker 1>hedge funds, it happens to mutual funds. It is basically

0:28:49.760 --> 0:28:53.160
<v Speaker 1>a fundamental law. Seven fat years, seven lean years, and

0:28:53.200 --> 0:28:55.440
<v Speaker 1>there's no way around it. Yeah, the number of years

0:28:55.440 --> 0:28:57.760
<v Speaker 1>may differ, but you've got it all right. Well, you

0:28:57.760 --> 0:29:01.120
<v Speaker 1>you reference the Bible and that phrase that always stayed

0:29:01.160 --> 0:29:04.560
<v Speaker 1>with me. Um. So let's let's stick with the issue

0:29:04.880 --> 0:29:10.840
<v Speaker 1>of um of indexing for now. And I want to

0:29:10.960 --> 0:29:15.040
<v Speaker 1>quote something that Charlie Ellis had wrote. Charlie was not

0:29:15.160 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 1>only on the board of the Vanguard Group, a board

0:29:18.760 --> 0:29:21.479
<v Speaker 1>of directors, but he was also an advisor to the

0:29:21.560 --> 0:29:25.160
<v Speaker 1>Yale Endowment Fund, and he wrote a wonderful book called

0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:29.640
<v Speaker 1>Winning the Losers Game. And he he also advocates that

0:29:29.800 --> 0:29:33.880
<v Speaker 1>individuals should stick with simple indexing, which leads me to

0:29:33.920 --> 0:29:40.560
<v Speaker 1>a question, how many indices should the average invest your own? Well,

0:29:41.880 --> 0:29:44.280
<v Speaker 1>very very few is the symbol to that answer to

0:29:44.320 --> 0:29:48.000
<v Speaker 1>that question. You need a broad stock index, and you

0:29:48.040 --> 0:29:50.520
<v Speaker 1>need a broad out bond index, because I'm convinced that

0:29:50.560 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 1>everybody should have a little anchor to winward when these

0:29:53.840 --> 0:29:56.760
<v Speaker 1>bad times come, if for no other reason, to protect

0:29:56.840 --> 0:30:01.240
<v Speaker 1>themselves and getting emotional and behaving aileen selling out their

0:30:01.280 --> 0:30:05.719
<v Speaker 1>portfolios at market bottoms. So leaving aside the allocation between

0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.400
<v Speaker 1>stocks and bonds, you can buy a bond index fund,

0:30:08.840 --> 0:30:11.120
<v Speaker 1>and you're gonna buy a total stock market index fund,

0:30:11.520 --> 0:30:13.600
<v Speaker 1>and you're gonna buy the Standard and Poors five hundred

0:30:13.640 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 1>index fund, and that's basically eight of the market. The

0:30:18.920 --> 0:30:22.200
<v Speaker 1>You would think that the that the total stock market

0:30:22.240 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>would be a better bet because it's more diversified in

0:30:25.040 --> 0:30:28.120
<v Speaker 1>the SNP five but We're in a time right now

0:30:28.200 --> 0:30:29.840
<v Speaker 1>and I don't know if this is durable or not.

0:30:29.920 --> 0:30:33.120
<v Speaker 1>Nobody does. Where the large companies are doing better than

0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:37.720
<v Speaker 1>the small companies. So the great Mr Buffett and does

0:30:37.840 --> 0:30:42.200
<v Speaker 1>his He's leaving his wife the state in the s

0:30:42.240 --> 0:30:46.040
<v Speaker 1>and Vanguard SNP five index fund. He has a bet

0:30:46.040 --> 0:30:49.040
<v Speaker 1>with some hedge fund managers. He's winning. He's winning the bet.

0:30:49.120 --> 0:30:52.600
<v Speaker 1>He's not winning, it's he's killing him. He's absolutely way

0:30:52.640 --> 0:30:56.400
<v Speaker 1>way ahead. They actually had to create derivatives for this bet.

0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:59.000
<v Speaker 1>This is a real bet with millions of dollars on it,

0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:01.880
<v Speaker 1>and he looks it's a runaway. Nobody is else is

0:31:01.920 --> 0:31:05.200
<v Speaker 1>even in second. Well, he's got a year ago. This

0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:07.160
<v Speaker 1>is that's right. It will be a decade after the

0:31:07.200 --> 0:31:10.040
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis. The hedge fund. For those of you who

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:12.440
<v Speaker 1>may not be familiar with the infamous bet, a bunch

0:31:12.480 --> 0:31:16.440
<v Speaker 1>of hedge fund managers were um arrogant enough to bet

0:31:16.440 --> 0:31:20.840
<v Speaker 1>Warren Buffett that they could outperform the SMP. He took

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:24.280
<v Speaker 1>that bet and it's not even close. It's it's really

0:31:24.320 --> 0:31:26.720
<v Speaker 1>an amazing story. I didn't realize we're only a year

0:31:26.760 --> 0:31:31.200
<v Speaker 1>away from the final outcome of that uh bet. And

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:35.600
<v Speaker 1>it's it's theoretically possible they can win, but really mathematically

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:41.120
<v Speaker 1>it's it's highly improbable, but very anything can happen. However,

0:31:41.160 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 1>I can see that. Jack Bogle, thank you so much

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:45.760
<v Speaker 1>for being so generous with your time. This has been

0:31:45.840 --> 0:31:49.640
<v Speaker 1>absolutely fascinating. For those of you who are interested in

0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 1>hearing the conversation continue, be sure and check out our

0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:56.320
<v Speaker 1>podcast extras, where we keep the tape rolling and continue chatting.

0:31:56.920 --> 0:31:59.560
<v Speaker 1>You can check out my daily column on Bloomberg View

0:31:59.600 --> 0:32:03.400
<v Speaker 1>dot com or follow me on Twitter at Ritults. I'm

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:07.480
<v Speaker 1>Barry Hults. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

0:32:07.840 --> 0:32:10.280
<v Speaker 1>Welcome back to the podcast. Jack, Thank you so much

0:32:10.280 --> 0:32:14.160
<v Speaker 1>for doing this. This has really been tremendously fascinating. It

0:32:14.200 --> 0:32:17.280
<v Speaker 1>was worth the drive to Pennsylvania to come come see you.

0:32:17.960 --> 0:32:24.920
<v Speaker 1>Um I'm I'm absolutely fascinated by everything you've accomplished. So

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:28.640
<v Speaker 1>we've talked a little bit of the advantages of indexing

0:32:28.800 --> 0:32:32.120
<v Speaker 1>for equities, and you mentioned bond funds. There have been

0:32:32.240 --> 0:32:37.760
<v Speaker 1>some pretty reasonable academic arguments that you could do okay

0:32:37.800 --> 0:32:41.560
<v Speaker 1>with active management with bond funds because there's such a

0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:45.600
<v Speaker 1>universe of choices. It's not just treasuries, but it's treasuries

0:32:45.640 --> 0:32:48.600
<v Speaker 1>and its corporates and its municipalities. How do you feel

0:32:48.640 --> 0:32:52.240
<v Speaker 1>about about bond funds? Do you just own abroad um

0:32:52.360 --> 0:32:55.560
<v Speaker 1>index of bond funds or do you look at active

0:32:55.560 --> 0:32:58.760
<v Speaker 1>management and bonds and say, well, maybe there's some value

0:32:58.760 --> 0:33:02.360
<v Speaker 1>added there. Well. As a group, bond managers cannot win

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:05.280
<v Speaker 1>because they are the market and so they will as

0:33:05.280 --> 0:33:07.800
<v Speaker 1>a group capture the market return. There's just no question

0:33:07.840 --> 0:33:11.560
<v Speaker 1>about this. And charging as they do probably in the

0:33:11.640 --> 0:33:15.000
<v Speaker 1>mutual fund business, probably sixty basis points, seventy basis points,

0:33:15.400 --> 0:33:17.800
<v Speaker 1>they just don't have a fighting chance over the bond

0:33:17.840 --> 0:33:22.720
<v Speaker 1>fund index. Now that index has some issues, as they say.

0:33:23.440 --> 0:33:26.239
<v Speaker 1>And I started the first bond in next fund, by

0:33:26.240 --> 0:33:34.240
<v Speaker 1>the way, thirty years ago, Yeah, thirty years ago, and

0:33:34.280 --> 0:33:37.800
<v Speaker 1>it's done just fine, met the test of competition. But

0:33:38.160 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm not I think we can do better in bond

0:33:40.760 --> 0:33:42.840
<v Speaker 1>and next thing than the bond, than the bond and

0:33:42.880 --> 0:33:46.959
<v Speaker 1>next the way it's constructed, because it's about se treasuries

0:33:47.320 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 1>and mortgage backed good mortgage backed government backed instruments, and

0:33:52.960 --> 0:33:56.520
<v Speaker 1>I think most investors should not have se in the

0:33:56.560 --> 0:34:00.720
<v Speaker 1>super safe category. I think something like is pretty good.

0:34:00.960 --> 0:34:02.800
<v Speaker 1>So it should be a better assortment of risk that

0:34:02.920 --> 0:34:05.920
<v Speaker 1>potentially is generating more returns. And as long as you're

0:34:05.960 --> 0:34:10.120
<v Speaker 1>holding it for decades, the short term volatility is irrelevant. Yeah. Well,

0:34:10.320 --> 0:34:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the the one that I have to use myself is

0:34:14.000 --> 0:34:17.799
<v Speaker 1>our intermediate intermediate term bond index fund. It has it's

0:34:17.840 --> 0:34:20.440
<v Speaker 1>just as volatile or as non volatile, because that has

0:34:20.520 --> 0:34:24.160
<v Speaker 1>the same duration or average maturity, and but it's about

0:34:24.160 --> 0:34:28.280
<v Speaker 1>thirty governments and it is the same in every other respect.

0:34:28.560 --> 0:34:31.279
<v Speaker 1>So if it has a higher yield, the yield and

0:34:31.320 --> 0:34:37.600
<v Speaker 1>a bond has today's yield correlation with the return you're

0:34:37.640 --> 0:34:39.719
<v Speaker 1>gonna get in the next ten years, so you might

0:34:39.760 --> 0:34:42.759
<v Speaker 1>as well take advantage of it. And I'd say particularly,

0:34:42.760 --> 0:34:45.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean, yes, it's a little riskier, but today people

0:34:45.360 --> 0:34:50.120
<v Speaker 1>are dying for income, dying for income, and to reach

0:34:50.160 --> 0:34:52.080
<v Speaker 1>a little bit, you know, I don't believe in big

0:34:52.080 --> 0:34:54.920
<v Speaker 1>reaching for yield at all. Well, that certainly was was

0:34:54.960 --> 0:34:58.480
<v Speaker 1>the close of problems in the last financial crisis. Everybody

0:34:58.480 --> 0:35:02.000
<v Speaker 1>who reached for yields and said, I understand this is subprime,

0:35:02.040 --> 0:35:04.880
<v Speaker 1>but the rating agencies tell me it's triple A, so

0:35:04.920 --> 0:35:07.239
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna hold my nose and buy this didn't work

0:35:07.239 --> 0:35:09.480
<v Speaker 1>out that way. It did not work out well, to

0:35:09.560 --> 0:35:13.319
<v Speaker 1>say the least, So so I didn't realize you had

0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:16.520
<v Speaker 1>created the first bond index fund. So we have we

0:35:16.600 --> 0:35:19.560
<v Speaker 1>have bond indexes, which you would like to see have

0:35:19.640 --> 0:35:23.319
<v Speaker 1>a little more risk and uh, a little less of

0:35:23.360 --> 0:35:28.000
<v Speaker 1>the super safe size we've already discussed, uh the equity side.

0:35:28.320 --> 0:35:31.040
<v Speaker 1>Let's let's talk a little bit about some of the

0:35:31.080 --> 0:35:34.920
<v Speaker 1>hot buzzwords that are going around today. And I'm curious

0:35:34.960 --> 0:35:36.840
<v Speaker 1>as I already know what your ranches I'm gonna be,

0:35:36.880 --> 0:35:39.200
<v Speaker 1>but I feel obligated to ask before we get to that.

0:35:39.239 --> 0:35:42.040
<v Speaker 1>Can I just say one thing? Sure? We also started

0:35:42.840 --> 0:35:49.480
<v Speaker 1>in about nineteen, well in seven, to broaden our index

0:35:49.560 --> 0:35:52.200
<v Speaker 1>base from the SNP five, we started the bond in

0:35:52.280 --> 0:35:55.680
<v Speaker 1>next fund. We then started. I realized that there was

0:35:55.719 --> 0:35:57.799
<v Speaker 1>a certain attractiveness to owning the whole market, so we

0:35:57.840 --> 0:36:00.080
<v Speaker 1>started something called the extended market in the next on.

0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:04.480
<v Speaker 1>How many holdings were in that well probably um righting.

0:36:04.520 --> 0:36:10.200
<v Speaker 1>It varies amazingly, but probably right now because the Wilshire

0:36:10.239 --> 0:36:13.719
<v Speaker 1>five thousand is something like stocks, it's it's even less

0:36:13.760 --> 0:36:15.720
<v Speaker 1>than then it got up to seventh pass and believe

0:36:15.719 --> 0:36:18.320
<v Speaker 1>it or not, late nineties, Yeah, well, we were cranking

0:36:18.320 --> 0:36:20.680
<v Speaker 1>out a lot of new companies before we realized that

0:36:20.719 --> 0:36:24.719
<v Speaker 1>pets dot com wasn't a sustainable thing exactly. So I

0:36:24.800 --> 0:36:29.279
<v Speaker 1>also had an idea that growth might do better than

0:36:29.360 --> 0:36:32.520
<v Speaker 1>value for the for for young people investing on a

0:36:32.600 --> 0:36:35.879
<v Speaker 1>dollar averaging basis wouldn't be that much riskier, and when

0:36:35.920 --> 0:36:38.880
<v Speaker 1>they retired they might want an income fund. So I

0:36:39.200 --> 0:36:41.840
<v Speaker 1>I divided the SMP into two. As soon as the

0:36:41.920 --> 0:36:45.439
<v Speaker 1>SMP did that, I started a growth index fund half

0:36:45.440 --> 0:36:48.360
<v Speaker 1>of the SMP and a value index fund the other half.

0:36:48.800 --> 0:36:50.399
<v Speaker 1>It didn't work out very well. I mean, it worked

0:36:50.440 --> 0:36:53.640
<v Speaker 1>out fine from performance standpoint. Where we found is the

0:36:53.680 --> 0:36:56.000
<v Speaker 1>money poured into growth when growth was doing well at

0:36:56.000 --> 0:36:58.880
<v Speaker 1>the wrong time, out of growth and into value. So

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:01.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, sometimes I think we've got to be very

0:37:01.440 --> 0:37:04.600
<v Speaker 1>aware of creating things that we know investors are going

0:37:04.640 --> 0:37:07.160
<v Speaker 1>to use badly. So we don't know, we don't tell

0:37:07.200 --> 0:37:09.040
<v Speaker 1>them what to use and how to use it, but

0:37:09.239 --> 0:37:12.520
<v Speaker 1>it happens, and it's a responsibility of us, the sponsor

0:37:12.920 --> 0:37:16.440
<v Speaker 1>to do that. So that raises a really significant question,

0:37:16.560 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 1>which is how important is investor behavior to long term

0:37:22.160 --> 0:37:26.640
<v Speaker 1>returns and what can the average investor do to make

0:37:26.680 --> 0:37:30.480
<v Speaker 1>sure that they don't shoot themselves in the foot. Well,

0:37:30.520 --> 0:37:34.560
<v Speaker 1>the first thing to do is don't chase performance, and

0:37:34.920 --> 0:37:37.400
<v Speaker 1>don't if some salesman or you reading the paper for

0:37:37.440 --> 0:37:39.960
<v Speaker 1>that man, or to blame the salesman for this, says,

0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:42.080
<v Speaker 1>here's a new manager on a new fund and it's

0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:43.919
<v Speaker 1>really doing great, or an old manager and the fund

0:37:44.000 --> 0:37:46.160
<v Speaker 1>is doing great, and this fund is a great twenty

0:37:46.200 --> 0:37:50.000
<v Speaker 1>year record. Turn away from that, because it's next twenty

0:37:50.080 --> 0:37:52.200
<v Speaker 1>years aren't going to be anywhere near as good as

0:37:52.200 --> 0:37:54.799
<v Speaker 1>its past twenty. There are plenty of examples that, with

0:37:54.840 --> 0:37:57.560
<v Speaker 1>all due respect and when friends up in Boston Fidelities,

0:37:57.600 --> 0:38:01.520
<v Speaker 1>Magellan Fund was a star fund for roughly twenty years.

0:38:01.560 --> 0:38:05.000
<v Speaker 1>Fantastic Peter Lynch and then his one of his successors

0:38:05.000 --> 0:38:08.600
<v Speaker 1>did really well. Peter Lynch was a superstar performer. And

0:38:08.600 --> 0:38:10.719
<v Speaker 1>then what happened well with a tiny little fun too,

0:38:10.800 --> 0:38:13.279
<v Speaker 1>don't forget that. And the fund that wasn't even offered

0:38:13.280 --> 0:38:15.799
<v Speaker 1>to the public for five or six years. Oh yeah,

0:38:16.080 --> 0:38:19.200
<v Speaker 1>very interesting. We all have our little secrets, and uh

0:38:19.680 --> 0:38:21.880
<v Speaker 1>so I think overrated. But Peter Lynch was certainly a

0:38:21.880 --> 0:38:24.480
<v Speaker 1>good manager. But you know his principle of being, if

0:38:24.480 --> 0:38:26.920
<v Speaker 1>you see a product, you liked by the stock you know,

0:38:27.000 --> 0:38:30.799
<v Speaker 1>makes no rational sense, I'm sorry to say. And Peter Lynch,

0:38:30.920 --> 0:38:35.840
<v Speaker 1>also at Madelon Magellan Funds hey Day said, in words

0:38:35.840 --> 0:38:39.719
<v Speaker 1>of one syllable in Barns, most investors would be better

0:38:39.800 --> 0:38:42.920
<v Speaker 1>off in an index fund. Was that barrens I know,

0:38:43.000 --> 0:38:45.239
<v Speaker 1>I read that from him, and that's not a concession,

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:48.839
<v Speaker 1>that's the truth. Well, you have him saying that, you

0:38:48.840 --> 0:38:51.080
<v Speaker 1>have Warren Buffett saying that we have a number of

0:38:51.120 --> 0:38:56.560
<v Speaker 1>people David Swinson. Swinson at the yell Endownment, he's another one. Um.

0:38:57.280 --> 0:39:04.040
<v Speaker 1>It's amazing that people push against this because it's long

0:39:04.160 --> 0:39:07.160
<v Speaker 1>term and boring and there's nothing to talk about. And

0:39:07.200 --> 0:39:09.560
<v Speaker 1>but I guess shouldn't. That leads to the next question,

0:39:09.800 --> 0:39:13.319
<v Speaker 1>should investing be long term and boring? If you want

0:39:13.320 --> 0:39:16.480
<v Speaker 1>to have a comfortable retirement, Believe me, you'll be less

0:39:16.480 --> 0:39:18.840
<v Speaker 1>bored in your retirement. If you've got plenty of money,

0:39:19.480 --> 0:39:21.440
<v Speaker 1>You'll you'll be you'll be so on board. If you

0:39:21.440 --> 0:39:23.440
<v Speaker 1>don't do it that you'll have to go back to work.

0:39:23.800 --> 0:39:26.520
<v Speaker 1>So let me ask you about some of the hot

0:39:26.560 --> 0:39:29.720
<v Speaker 1>buzzwords that are out there and investing these days. And again,

0:39:29.760 --> 0:39:31.560
<v Speaker 1>this is a cheat because I'm pretty sure. I know

0:39:31.600 --> 0:39:34.879
<v Speaker 1>what your answers are, but I feel obligated to ask this.

0:39:35.480 --> 0:39:40.000
<v Speaker 1>So you're index funds are basically put together by market

0:39:40.040 --> 0:39:43.920
<v Speaker 1>cap waiting. But now there's something called smart beta, which

0:39:44.160 --> 0:39:47.879
<v Speaker 1>is different ways of assembling an index that don't rely

0:39:48.040 --> 0:39:51.480
<v Speaker 1>on cap waiting. What do you think of the idea

0:39:51.480 --> 0:39:57.200
<v Speaker 1>of smart beta? Smart beta is stupid? Okay, that's why. Well,

0:39:57.239 --> 0:39:59.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean I didn't say that's that's what Nobel Laurea,

0:40:00.160 --> 0:40:05.120
<v Speaker 1>Bill Sharp says. I just quoted him. And the reason

0:40:05.280 --> 0:40:08.319
<v Speaker 1>is just think about this for a minute. It's it's

0:40:08.360 --> 0:40:11.359
<v Speaker 1>another form of active management to begin with. But if

0:40:11.360 --> 0:40:15.600
<v Speaker 1>smart beta is good, and that that means it beats

0:40:15.640 --> 0:40:20.960
<v Speaker 1>the index, then dumb beta this does even worse than

0:40:21.000 --> 0:40:24.719
<v Speaker 1>the index. Right, so smart and dumb are different. But

0:40:24.760 --> 0:40:26.279
<v Speaker 1>why are people going to be dumb if it's so

0:40:26.320 --> 0:40:29.160
<v Speaker 1>easy to be smart? It's just another claim that I

0:40:29.160 --> 0:40:35.040
<v Speaker 1>can do this better now. Happily, after Wisdom Tree and

0:40:35.040 --> 0:40:39.120
<v Speaker 1>and Rob Arns fund came out a decade ago, his

0:40:39.200 --> 0:40:42.280
<v Speaker 1>fund is now more than ten years old. What happened

0:40:42.840 --> 0:40:47.080
<v Speaker 1>and the answer is essentially nothing. His fund beat the

0:40:47.239 --> 0:40:51.279
<v Speaker 1>SMP five d B I think thirty basis points, but

0:40:51.360 --> 0:40:55.200
<v Speaker 1>it was more vowel and therefore it's sharp ratio the

0:40:55.239 --> 0:40:58.600
<v Speaker 1>relationship relationship between risk and reward. I don't hold me

0:40:58.640 --> 0:41:01.880
<v Speaker 1>to the numbers, but the sharp ratio of I mean,

0:41:01.960 --> 0:41:03.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean his guests here, I won't be too far

0:41:03.600 --> 0:41:06.239
<v Speaker 1>off the sharp ratio of the five of us like

0:41:06.760 --> 0:41:10.320
<v Speaker 1>forty one. On the sharp ratio of Arno's fund was

0:41:10.400 --> 0:41:14.759
<v Speaker 1>thirty six. So he lost. He had ten years to

0:41:14.800 --> 0:41:17.439
<v Speaker 1>prove it. Now maybe he'll prove it the next ten years.

0:41:17.480 --> 0:41:20.560
<v Speaker 1>Who can say, But why would that be? I mean,

0:41:20.640 --> 0:41:22.919
<v Speaker 1>where's all the brain power. He's a very smart guy,

0:41:22.960 --> 0:41:24.840
<v Speaker 1>by the way, one of the smartest guys in this business.

0:41:24.920 --> 0:41:26.640
<v Speaker 1>He was a four guest on the show, one of

0:41:26.640 --> 0:41:30.120
<v Speaker 1>our earliest guests. He's a delightful gentleman. I always enjoy

0:41:30.200 --> 0:41:35.480
<v Speaker 1>his company. UM, And it was really an insightful thought

0:41:35.600 --> 0:41:40.040
<v Speaker 1>to say, let's think of different ways to put together UM,

0:41:40.239 --> 0:41:44.720
<v Speaker 1>to put together indexes. But your position is this isn't

0:41:44.840 --> 0:41:49.200
<v Speaker 1>after fees, after everything else. Once you now you risk adjusted,

0:41:49.239 --> 0:41:52.759
<v Speaker 1>you look at all this volatility. Your your conclusion is

0:41:52.880 --> 0:41:54.759
<v Speaker 1>this just isn't worth it well. And even if you

0:41:54.760 --> 0:41:57.399
<v Speaker 1>look at absolute returns, it's like thirty basis points better

0:41:57.480 --> 0:42:00.719
<v Speaker 1>over ten years now, that's not trivial. When he has

0:42:00.880 --> 0:42:04.640
<v Speaker 1>essentially the same portfolio as the index fund with different waitings,

0:42:05.640 --> 0:42:08.319
<v Speaker 1>you can't expect anything to be too different. So I

0:42:08.360 --> 0:42:12.480
<v Speaker 1>think it's it's over sold. Jeremy Siegell of Wisdom Tree

0:42:13.000 --> 0:42:15.680
<v Speaker 1>described this as a new Copernican view of the world.

0:42:15.719 --> 0:42:18.759
<v Speaker 1>Everybody had it wrong, and Copernica said, oh, by god,

0:42:18.800 --> 0:42:20.719
<v Speaker 1>that son is in the middle, and the new sun

0:42:20.920 --> 0:42:24.880
<v Speaker 1>is smart Beta can't be because we're all as a

0:42:25.000 --> 0:42:28.040
<v Speaker 1>group average. And if they are these smart guys over there,

0:42:28.480 --> 0:42:31.319
<v Speaker 1>they are dumb guys over there. Smart and dumb both

0:42:31.520 --> 0:42:34.160
<v Speaker 1>also net net. When you're buying smart data, you're really

0:42:34.200 --> 0:42:37.520
<v Speaker 1>buying a distribution of really smart guys, really average guys,

0:42:37.560 --> 0:42:40.160
<v Speaker 1>really dumb guys, and you don't know who's who across

0:42:40.200 --> 0:42:42.640
<v Speaker 1>all the smart beta funds. You know, and then think

0:42:42.680 --> 0:42:47.719
<v Speaker 1>about this one step further. The index essentially guarantee the

0:42:47.719 --> 0:42:51.399
<v Speaker 1>dollar value index essentially guarantees you the return that all

0:42:51.480 --> 0:42:57.680
<v Speaker 1>investors share. So that's written stone etched in stone. Uh,

0:42:58.160 --> 0:43:00.920
<v Speaker 1>smart beta may do a little better, may do a

0:43:00.920 --> 0:43:03.839
<v Speaker 1>little worse. What is the point of taking the risk

0:43:04.320 --> 0:43:07.520
<v Speaker 1>when the guarantee of getting the market return is right

0:43:07.560 --> 0:43:10.960
<v Speaker 1>at your hand, Why would you speculate, Why would you

0:43:10.960 --> 0:43:13.839
<v Speaker 1>speculate on maybe this guy can do it better? And

0:43:13.960 --> 0:43:16.160
<v Speaker 1>believe me, some of these smart beta funds was for

0:43:16.160 --> 0:43:18.480
<v Speaker 1>a short period of times will do it and some

0:43:18.560 --> 0:43:21.040
<v Speaker 1>of them won't. I mean that's the nature of the beast.

0:43:21.440 --> 0:43:23.720
<v Speaker 1>I've described it as why do you want to romance

0:43:23.760 --> 0:43:28.040
<v Speaker 1>alpha and forsake beta when beta is a sure thing? Yeah,

0:43:28.520 --> 0:43:31.880
<v Speaker 1>so that's smart beta. Let me ask you about something

0:43:31.920 --> 0:43:34.480
<v Speaker 1>else that I suspect they know to your know your answers.

0:43:34.960 --> 0:43:38.680
<v Speaker 1>This year commodities have gold especially has had a huge

0:43:38.719 --> 0:43:43.040
<v Speaker 1>bounce back. We sort of tremendous commodity run from the

0:43:43.080 --> 0:43:46.399
<v Speaker 1>early two thousand's till two thousand eleven. What are your

0:43:46.440 --> 0:43:52.080
<v Speaker 1>thoughts on things like commodity funds, gold, and uh energy

0:43:52.200 --> 0:43:57.240
<v Speaker 1>for for investors? No, no, and no no. Let's repeat

0:43:57.239 --> 0:44:01.040
<v Speaker 1>this in case those of you missed gold. No commodity funds,

0:44:01.040 --> 0:44:04.640
<v Speaker 1>no oil funds. No tell us why? Okay, well oil

0:44:04.719 --> 0:44:06.880
<v Speaker 1>is it commins I'm peak of oil as a commodity

0:44:06.960 --> 0:44:10.160
<v Speaker 1>now and then is think about what a stock is.

0:44:11.000 --> 0:44:14.160
<v Speaker 1>Stock has an internal rate of return and it's composed

0:44:14.200 --> 0:44:16.400
<v Speaker 1>of the earnings growth in the divin end yield. When

0:44:16.440 --> 0:44:19.400
<v Speaker 1>you buy it, it's there. If the stock goes up

0:44:19.440 --> 0:44:22.440
<v Speaker 1>and down, that return is there. It has an underlying

0:44:22.719 --> 0:44:25.319
<v Speaker 1>internal rate of return. You have a discounted cash flow

0:44:25.400 --> 0:44:28.640
<v Speaker 1>from the future. You're buying an existing business that's gonna

0:44:28.680 --> 0:44:31.600
<v Speaker 1>generate revenue and profits and you get to participate in that. Now,

0:44:31.680 --> 0:44:36.279
<v Speaker 1>take a bond. It has an internal return equal to

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:38.520
<v Speaker 1>the interest coupon that you're gonna get over the next

0:44:38.800 --> 0:44:41.160
<v Speaker 1>ten years or twenty five years, whatever the case may be.

0:44:41.920 --> 0:44:46.440
<v Speaker 1>Commodities have no internal rate of return, and there's a

0:44:46.520 --> 0:44:49.279
<v Speaker 1>cost of storage and security for things like gold or oil.

0:44:49.520 --> 0:44:52.840
<v Speaker 1>So when you buy a unit of gold, why do

0:44:52.880 --> 0:44:55.080
<v Speaker 1>you buy it because you think you can sell it

0:44:55.200 --> 0:44:58.640
<v Speaker 1>to somebody for a higher price. That is the definition

0:44:58.719 --> 0:45:02.880
<v Speaker 1>of speculation. That's the classic greater fool theory. You may

0:45:02.920 --> 0:45:05.279
<v Speaker 1>have paid a lot, but someone will pay more. And well,

0:45:05.280 --> 0:45:06.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you may be right, by the way, and

0:45:06.680 --> 0:45:08.279
<v Speaker 1>there's no reason you can't be right, but that just

0:45:08.400 --> 0:45:10.920
<v Speaker 1>means the other guy is wrong. And you don't know

0:45:11.120 --> 0:45:12.920
<v Speaker 1>as you as the investor, you don't know which of

0:45:13.000 --> 0:45:15.279
<v Speaker 1>those two parties you're gonna be five years from that.

0:45:15.560 --> 0:45:18.320
<v Speaker 1>And another thing when you mentioned gold is it brings

0:45:18.360 --> 0:45:21.720
<v Speaker 1>to mind is everybody used to talk about gold. Forbes

0:45:21.800 --> 0:45:25.160
<v Speaker 1>magazine highlighted in all their reviews for years and years

0:45:25.200 --> 0:45:27.840
<v Speaker 1>when they picked the best funds gold funds, gold funds.

0:45:28.200 --> 0:45:30.440
<v Speaker 1>And then we we had the boom and gold, and

0:45:30.520 --> 0:45:33.439
<v Speaker 1>then we had the collapse and nobody started talking about

0:45:33.480 --> 0:45:36.840
<v Speaker 1>Nobody talking about gold. Now we have another boom and

0:45:36.960 --> 0:45:40.880
<v Speaker 1>everybody's talking about gold. Then gold collapses last year, nobody's

0:45:40.920 --> 0:45:44.280
<v Speaker 1>talking about gold. Now gold is up this year. Everybody.

0:45:44.360 --> 0:45:47.440
<v Speaker 1>This is metaphorically speaking, everybody's talking about gold. You know,

0:45:47.560 --> 0:45:50.919
<v Speaker 1>don't pay any attention to gold. I mean, it would

0:45:51.000 --> 0:45:54.359
<v Speaker 1>not be stupid. I wouldn't do it, but it would

0:45:54.400 --> 0:45:56.840
<v Speaker 1>not be stupid to have a very small position in

0:45:56.960 --> 0:46:03.480
<v Speaker 1>gold as a hedge against worldwide hyperinflation. Maybe five I

0:46:03.480 --> 0:46:06.080
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't do any more than that, But I don't think

0:46:06.080 --> 0:46:09.960
<v Speaker 1>you should do that. But it's at least defensible because

0:46:10.000 --> 0:46:13.800
<v Speaker 1>you're you have a specific goal in mind, and it's insurance.

0:46:13.840 --> 0:46:17.080
<v Speaker 1>You're paying a five percent insurance on the remote possibility

0:46:17.120 --> 0:46:20.080
<v Speaker 1>of global hyper inflation. But if you're wrong, it's a

0:46:20.200 --> 0:46:23.080
<v Speaker 1>giant five percent drag on your portfolio for the next

0:46:23.160 --> 0:46:26.239
<v Speaker 1>few decades. Yeah, and that's huge. That is well, you

0:46:26.280 --> 0:46:28.759
<v Speaker 1>guys are talking about five basis points. This is five

0:46:28.840 --> 0:46:33.160
<v Speaker 1>hundred basis points. That's a tremendous, tremendous drag. Let's talk

0:46:33.200 --> 0:46:36.080
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. And by the way, I'm pretty much

0:46:36.080 --> 0:46:39.520
<v Speaker 1>what I expected you to say about commodities. Let's let

0:46:39.560 --> 0:46:41.600
<v Speaker 1>me find two things to talk to you about that

0:46:41.640 --> 0:46:44.719
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna have to push back a little bit. One

0:46:45.440 --> 0:46:48.920
<v Speaker 1>is e t fs exchange traded funds. I know you're

0:46:49.000 --> 0:46:52.040
<v Speaker 1>not a big fan of them, but lots of investors

0:46:52.120 --> 0:46:55.840
<v Speaker 1>find it's a very inexpensive, simple way to get exposure

0:46:55.920 --> 0:46:59.360
<v Speaker 1>to the S and P five hundred or whatever asset

0:46:59.440 --> 0:47:02.640
<v Speaker 1>class they want. Why are you not a big fan

0:47:02.719 --> 0:47:07.640
<v Speaker 1>of ETFs? Well, I'll start with little anecdote. A wonderful

0:47:07.680 --> 0:47:10.759
<v Speaker 1>guy named Nathan mose came to visit me right in

0:47:10.800 --> 0:47:13.680
<v Speaker 1>my office upstairs here at Vanguard, and he said, I

0:47:13.760 --> 0:47:16.160
<v Speaker 1>have a great idea for you. We I want to

0:47:16.200 --> 0:47:19.280
<v Speaker 1>start the first exchange traded mutual fund and have Vanguards

0:47:19.320 --> 0:47:21.799
<v Speaker 1>my partner there. I was I could have not only

0:47:21.880 --> 0:47:24.880
<v Speaker 1>created the first index mutual fund, but the first et F.

0:47:25.600 --> 0:47:30.880
<v Speaker 1>And I said, Nate, no way, because the description that

0:47:31.000 --> 0:47:33.319
<v Speaker 1>you got from from Nathan, or at least their first

0:47:33.440 --> 0:47:36.200
<v Speaker 1>adds later on, was now you can trade the S

0:47:36.280 --> 0:47:39.200
<v Speaker 1>and P five hundred all day long in real time.

0:47:40.040 --> 0:47:43.040
<v Speaker 1>And I would say, that's what kind of a nut

0:47:43.160 --> 0:47:45.200
<v Speaker 1>would want to do that. I mean, there must be

0:47:45.280 --> 0:47:47.400
<v Speaker 1>better things to do than that in this life. But

0:47:47.480 --> 0:47:50.720
<v Speaker 1>in any event, it's the trading idea. When my idea

0:47:50.719 --> 0:47:54.719
<v Speaker 1>of indexing broad market indexing by the SNP five and

0:47:54.880 --> 0:47:58.600
<v Speaker 1>hold it forever, what is said to be worn Warren

0:47:58.600 --> 0:48:02.080
<v Speaker 1>Buffett's favorite holding period is forever. So so the idea

0:48:02.200 --> 0:48:06.120
<v Speaker 1>of an SMP five hundred funds that if you're gonna,

0:48:06.120 --> 0:48:08.480
<v Speaker 1>if you're gonna do that exposure, you're better doing it

0:48:08.560 --> 0:48:12.480
<v Speaker 1>with the low cost mutual funds than an index funds. Uh.

0:48:12.560 --> 0:48:14.759
<v Speaker 1>Then in uh E t F so there is no

0:48:14.920 --> 0:48:19.560
<v Speaker 1>temptation to trade intra day or to play around that.

0:48:19.800 --> 0:48:21.600
<v Speaker 1>That's not what you think people should be doing with

0:48:21.680 --> 0:48:23.920
<v Speaker 1>their time or not. But let's let's examine the E

0:48:24.000 --> 0:48:26.440
<v Speaker 1>t F business for just a minute. And that is

0:48:26.520 --> 0:48:28.719
<v Speaker 1>if you look at E t F s, all the

0:48:28.760 --> 0:48:30.200
<v Speaker 1>big ones. Man, I can't look at all of them,

0:48:30.280 --> 0:48:34.480
<v Speaker 1>but the big ones, particularly in the normal ones, are

0:48:34.520 --> 0:48:37.680
<v Speaker 1>about seventy by financial institutions. They're trading them in the

0:48:37.719 --> 0:48:42.640
<v Speaker 1>marketplace every day. The spider, the SMP five UM e

0:48:42.800 --> 0:48:46.520
<v Speaker 1>T F or the NASA one spider is the most

0:48:46.600 --> 0:48:51.960
<v Speaker 1>widely traded stock in the world every day. And if

0:48:52.000 --> 0:48:54.360
<v Speaker 1>you look further this year, which is a little more

0:48:54.440 --> 0:48:58.040
<v Speaker 1>bottle than most years so far, the dollar volume of

0:48:58.120 --> 0:49:01.960
<v Speaker 1>trading in e T s is the same size as

0:49:02.000 --> 0:49:06.200
<v Speaker 1>the dollar volume of trading and common stocks. Unbelievable because

0:49:06.239 --> 0:49:09.759
<v Speaker 1>common stocks are worth about twenty three trillion dollars and

0:49:09.960 --> 0:49:13.600
<v Speaker 1>the spiders are worth about two. So spiders are turning

0:49:13.640 --> 0:49:16.120
<v Speaker 1>over it three thousand percent a year and stocks are

0:49:16.160 --> 0:49:18.800
<v Speaker 1>turning over it two a year or something like that.

0:49:19.400 --> 0:49:23.040
<v Speaker 1>So they're trading instruments owned by large institutions. I mean,

0:49:23.080 --> 0:49:26.239
<v Speaker 1>look at the spider head. It says institutions, here's what

0:49:26.360 --> 0:49:29.080
<v Speaker 1>you need to trade. I mean, it's practically verbatim from

0:49:29.080 --> 0:49:32.239
<v Speaker 1>the ad. It's just it may be irrelevant, but I

0:49:32.560 --> 0:49:34.680
<v Speaker 1>don't think in the long run and that has anything

0:49:34.719 --> 0:49:36.640
<v Speaker 1>to do with the mutual fund business or individual And

0:49:36.719 --> 0:49:39.680
<v Speaker 1>it certainly shouldn't have anything to do with individuals, because

0:49:40.160 --> 0:49:43.040
<v Speaker 1>why would you as an individual want to trade against

0:49:43.520 --> 0:49:47.319
<v Speaker 1>these giant institutions who do nothing but use this as

0:49:47.560 --> 0:49:49.640
<v Speaker 1>a either a trading tool or a hedging tool or

0:49:49.680 --> 0:49:52.799
<v Speaker 1>whatever it is. You're saying, this is not a playground

0:49:52.880 --> 0:49:56.279
<v Speaker 1>for individuals to step into. And that looks like it's

0:49:56.400 --> 0:49:59.480
<v Speaker 1>roughly seventy percent of the business. And you know, I

0:49:59.480 --> 0:50:01.680
<v Speaker 1>don't you mean even to criticize it. It's kind of

0:50:01.680 --> 0:50:05.280
<v Speaker 1>irrelevant when you get to the other of the business.

0:50:05.360 --> 0:50:07.359
<v Speaker 1>And I may be a little often my percentages here,

0:50:07.960 --> 0:50:12.800
<v Speaker 1>but they're individuals and you know, something like two thirds

0:50:12.880 --> 0:50:15.240
<v Speaker 1>of them are using e t f s to trade,

0:50:15.920 --> 0:50:18.720
<v Speaker 1>and one third of them that would be the total

0:50:18.920 --> 0:50:21.640
<v Speaker 1>all the e t F market are using them, buying

0:50:21.680 --> 0:50:24.560
<v Speaker 1>and holding them and maybe using them. You know, we

0:50:24.680 --> 0:50:27.040
<v Speaker 1>have it's a funny technical thing in this business. But

0:50:27.800 --> 0:50:28.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you want to put it in a

0:50:29.000 --> 0:50:31.400
<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars a month into a van guard fund and

0:50:31.480 --> 0:50:33.400
<v Speaker 1>then you want to take out five thousand dollars at

0:50:33.400 --> 0:50:36.719
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year and buy Christmas presents whatever

0:50:36.760 --> 0:50:40.440
<v Speaker 1>you might want, um, it's very difficult to do that

0:50:40.560 --> 0:50:42.600
<v Speaker 1>here because we don't like buying and selling at the

0:50:42.640 --> 0:50:45.360
<v Speaker 1>same time. You can do it with our e t

0:50:45.520 --> 0:50:48.160
<v Speaker 1>f s very easily. So a certain market place there

0:50:48.640 --> 0:50:52.440
<v Speaker 1>of people who aren't traders but like the flexibility ETFs had,

0:50:52.640 --> 0:50:55.120
<v Speaker 1>and I have no problem with that. The other the

0:50:55.200 --> 0:50:57.800
<v Speaker 1>other part of the problem, however, the E t F problem,

0:50:58.719 --> 0:51:01.120
<v Speaker 1>is there is this huge amount in number, not so

0:51:01.239 --> 0:51:04.200
<v Speaker 1>much an asset of funds that are doing things that

0:51:04.360 --> 0:51:07.759
<v Speaker 1>no intelligent investor would ever do. Triple leverage and you

0:51:07.800 --> 0:51:10.319
<v Speaker 1>can bet every day whether the market's going up or down.

0:51:10.680 --> 0:51:14.280
<v Speaker 1>Isn't that grand? Not only triple leveraged up, but inverse

0:51:14.320 --> 0:51:16.760
<v Speaker 1>triple leveraged. As long as you know whether the market's

0:51:16.800 --> 0:51:18.759
<v Speaker 1>going up or down during the day, you're gonna make

0:51:18.800 --> 0:51:21.080
<v Speaker 1>a fortune. Who who knows if the market's going to

0:51:21.160 --> 0:51:23.000
<v Speaker 1>go up any or down any given day. Well, I

0:51:23.040 --> 0:51:25.759
<v Speaker 1>guess these smart people that have these funds, but they

0:51:25.840 --> 0:51:28.840
<v Speaker 1>all have both of them, that's right. They don't compete

0:51:28.880 --> 0:51:30.680
<v Speaker 1>with each other. And there are a whole lot of

0:51:30.719 --> 0:51:34.080
<v Speaker 1>other wacky things. I mean, I don't think US investors, you'll,

0:51:34.200 --> 0:51:36.399
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure you're gonna come to this, should be buying

0:51:36.480 --> 0:51:41.360
<v Speaker 1>individual foreign non US So let's let's ask that question.

0:51:41.840 --> 0:51:45.600
<v Speaker 1>A lot of the academic data says that if you're

0:51:45.640 --> 0:51:50.279
<v Speaker 1>diversified internationally, parts of the world are sometimes doing better

0:51:50.360 --> 0:51:53.080
<v Speaker 1>than the US, and sometimes the US is doing part

0:51:53.120 --> 0:51:55.360
<v Speaker 1>of the world. If we want to really be diversified,

0:51:55.920 --> 0:51:59.000
<v Speaker 1>you need US and not just have an overwhelming home

0:51:59.120 --> 0:52:05.640
<v Speaker 1>country bias UH Developed World x US and then emerging markets.

0:52:05.680 --> 0:52:08.640
<v Speaker 1>What's wrong with having a smattering of those in your

0:52:08.719 --> 0:52:12.920
<v Speaker 1>portfolios so that you get to take advantage of the

0:52:13.000 --> 0:52:17.280
<v Speaker 1>growth of the Pacific RIM in China and South America

0:52:17.800 --> 0:52:21.279
<v Speaker 1>and etcetera. Well, the question is is an advantage I mean,

0:52:21.320 --> 0:52:23.200
<v Speaker 1>tell someone to put all their money in Brazil two

0:52:23.280 --> 0:52:25.919
<v Speaker 1>years ago because somebody who put in all their money

0:52:25.960 --> 0:52:28.800
<v Speaker 1>in China year ago. Isn't an advantage or is it

0:52:28.920 --> 0:52:31.000
<v Speaker 1>just you know, kind of a little bubble going on

0:52:31.120 --> 0:52:33.960
<v Speaker 1>in those Well, but you're not picking individual countries. You're

0:52:33.960 --> 0:52:38.400
<v Speaker 1>gonna have a broad index of international companies, and therefore

0:52:39.520 --> 0:52:43.440
<v Speaker 1>it should theoretically the gain should offset the losses and

0:52:43.520 --> 0:52:46.759
<v Speaker 1>then some and so you have exposure elsewhere. You're not

0:52:46.880 --> 0:52:49.480
<v Speaker 1>a big fan of that, Well, I'm not. And and

0:52:49.680 --> 0:52:52.080
<v Speaker 1>the reason goes back to when I started to think

0:52:52.080 --> 0:52:55.879
<v Speaker 1>about it seriously writing my book bogelon Mutual Funds. Back

0:52:55.880 --> 0:53:01.239
<v Speaker 1>in Bogel on Mutual Funds, let's see what I have here.

0:53:01.280 --> 0:53:04.239
<v Speaker 1>I have common sense on mutual funds that probably says

0:53:04.280 --> 0:53:06.120
<v Speaker 1>something very similar to this, But this is a little

0:53:06.160 --> 0:53:10.360
<v Speaker 1>more recent, so I said, tenth edition forward by David Swinson.

0:53:10.440 --> 0:53:13.000
<v Speaker 1>So when you say recent, this came originally came out

0:53:13.600 --> 0:53:18.440
<v Speaker 1>almost fifteen years ago, right, and the original was seventeen

0:53:18.480 --> 0:53:21.560
<v Speaker 1>years ago. Interestingly enough, I'll get back to the other

0:53:21.640 --> 0:53:24.919
<v Speaker 1>subject in a second, but interesting enough, the first book

0:53:25.000 --> 0:53:29.759
<v Speaker 1>came out at a market high and the second and

0:53:29.840 --> 0:53:32.160
<v Speaker 1>the second book came out on the market low. And

0:53:32.320 --> 0:53:35.479
<v Speaker 1>I would hardly change one word in the whole second edition.

0:53:36.160 --> 0:53:40.240
<v Speaker 1>I reprinted it verbatim and then Mark put red Nantucket

0:53:40.320 --> 0:53:42.319
<v Speaker 1>read for any changes that took place in the book.

0:53:42.480 --> 0:53:45.520
<v Speaker 1>Now on the tenth edition, that's that's used after the

0:53:45.640 --> 0:53:48.520
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis, you could see some of the changes that

0:53:48.600 --> 0:53:52.120
<v Speaker 1>were made, but they're really very modest. You really didn't

0:53:52.239 --> 0:53:54.640
<v Speaker 1>change any of the themes in this. You just kind

0:53:54.680 --> 0:53:58.399
<v Speaker 1>of fleshed it out post crisis. It worked. Indexing worked

0:53:58.440 --> 0:54:00.680
<v Speaker 1>in the good market. Indexing worked, they're not so good

0:54:00.760 --> 0:54:03.960
<v Speaker 1>market as and course low cost worked in the good

0:54:04.000 --> 0:54:05.960
<v Speaker 1>market and not so good also, and they're not so

0:54:06.080 --> 0:54:09.040
<v Speaker 1>good market It has to So getting back to I

0:54:09.160 --> 0:54:14.279
<v Speaker 1>said in my first book, Uh, look us companies got

0:54:14.320 --> 0:54:17.040
<v Speaker 1>half of their revenues. This is true now at least

0:54:17.040 --> 0:54:18.960
<v Speaker 1>a little bit less than half of the revenues and

0:54:19.000 --> 0:54:21.800
<v Speaker 1>a half of their earnings from outside the US. We

0:54:22.080 --> 0:54:24.560
<v Speaker 1>you have an international portfolio, why do you want a

0:54:24.680 --> 0:54:28.880
<v Speaker 1>larger one? And then I say, take a look at

0:54:28.920 --> 0:54:34.600
<v Speaker 1>what comprises that international portfolio. Your largest investment is Japan,

0:54:34.880 --> 0:54:38.080
<v Speaker 1>Your second largest investment is the UK, Your third largest

0:54:38.120 --> 0:54:41.600
<v Speaker 1>investment is France. Now, if returns are developed out of

0:54:41.719 --> 0:54:45.840
<v Speaker 1>national economic strength, does anybody think that the UK and

0:54:45.960 --> 0:54:48.720
<v Speaker 1>Japan and France are gonna do better than the US

0:54:49.120 --> 0:54:52.640
<v Speaker 1>in the next ten, fift twenty years. I can't imagine it.

0:54:53.360 --> 0:54:55.560
<v Speaker 1>And now I may be wrong. I'm not saying this

0:54:55.719 --> 0:54:59.799
<v Speaker 1>is written in stone, but that's four that's forty five

0:54:59.840 --> 0:55:02.120
<v Speaker 1>p end of the money. So if people knew they

0:55:02.160 --> 0:55:05.120
<v Speaker 1>were putting forty percent of their international money, so called

0:55:05.160 --> 0:55:10.000
<v Speaker 1>international non US is a better formulation. In Great Britain, France,

0:55:10.080 --> 0:55:13.880
<v Speaker 1>and and the Japan, I mean with every one of

0:55:13.920 --> 0:55:17.799
<v Speaker 1>those economies has real problems. The French don't work very hard,

0:55:18.960 --> 0:55:22.120
<v Speaker 1>the Japanese have a structured and deeply aging economy, over

0:55:22.239 --> 0:55:27.800
<v Speaker 1>burdened by future retirement claims, terrible demographics, and they're a

0:55:27.840 --> 0:55:30.839
<v Speaker 1>great exporter. But then they have issues and Britain doesn't

0:55:30.880 --> 0:55:32.920
<v Speaker 1>know what's going to happen if they do the the

0:55:33.040 --> 0:55:35.719
<v Speaker 1>exit from the European Community, and or do they know

0:55:35.760 --> 0:55:37.520
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen if they stay in? So what

0:55:37.640 --> 0:55:43.040
<v Speaker 1>would happen if a sharp upstart company, let's call them Vanguard, says,

0:55:43.640 --> 0:55:47.799
<v Speaker 1>here's a broad international index that's fairly evenly weighted. It's

0:55:47.840 --> 0:55:52.200
<v Speaker 1>not just these three countries. Might that change your perspective

0:55:52.320 --> 0:55:54.600
<v Speaker 1>or do you still think, Hey, you get plenty of

0:55:55.040 --> 0:55:57.800
<v Speaker 1>the SMP five hundred. Half the revenue comes from overseas.

0:55:58.160 --> 0:56:02.479
<v Speaker 1>That's all the overseas exposure anyone really needs. I don't

0:56:02.520 --> 0:56:04.960
<v Speaker 1>like the idea because you would have as much and

0:56:05.800 --> 0:56:09.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know Honduras as you do in in Great Britain.

0:56:09.600 --> 0:56:13.160
<v Speaker 1>It wouldn't make any sense. Uh so, But to make

0:56:13.239 --> 0:56:17.279
<v Speaker 1>matters worse, when I made this statement in we now

0:56:17.400 --> 0:56:21.360
<v Speaker 1>have twenty two years of history, right, how was the prediction?

0:56:22.280 --> 0:56:24.640
<v Speaker 1>And the answer is that don't hold me to the

0:56:24.760 --> 0:56:29.520
<v Speaker 1>exact numbers. But the US portfolio is up about say seven,

0:56:31.360 --> 0:56:35.360
<v Speaker 1>and the non US portfolios up about two. So the

0:56:35.480 --> 0:56:38.880
<v Speaker 1>US is still winning versus the international. So I committed

0:56:38.920 --> 0:56:43.799
<v Speaker 1>the elements in very I was right. Now I want

0:56:43.840 --> 0:56:45.440
<v Speaker 1>to be very clear in this. Does that mean I

0:56:45.480 --> 0:56:48.160
<v Speaker 1>will be equally right in the future. I can't imagine it.

0:56:48.680 --> 0:56:51.440
<v Speaker 1>You think eventually, I mean reversion comes in. Yeah, and

0:56:51.520 --> 0:56:54.200
<v Speaker 1>eventually those two positions will reverse. The US Well, I

0:56:54.280 --> 0:56:56.960
<v Speaker 1>don't think they will reverse. But I don't think that

0:56:57.080 --> 0:57:00.200
<v Speaker 1>spread is a durable spread. And the reason I don't

0:57:00.200 --> 0:57:03.560
<v Speaker 1>think that reverse is we have this fabulous economy here.

0:57:03.880 --> 0:57:06.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, yes, it has problems, but probably less problems

0:57:06.680 --> 0:57:08.840
<v Speaker 1>than any country in the world, no doubt about that.

0:57:09.040 --> 0:57:12.520
<v Speaker 1>And the my favorite quote is this is the cleanest

0:57:12.800 --> 0:57:16.400
<v Speaker 1>shirt in a dirty hamper. Sure, exactly right. And well,

0:57:16.440 --> 0:57:18.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean I'd say was even cleaner than that. We're

0:57:18.640 --> 0:57:22.919
<v Speaker 1>number one in innovation and technology. Uh, we're not number

0:57:22.960 --> 0:57:27.040
<v Speaker 1>one an entrepreneurship. We're still a great manufacturing company, all

0:57:27.160 --> 0:57:29.680
<v Speaker 1>not as great as we are, and we still have,

0:57:30.360 --> 0:57:34.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, all these new companies being started, existing companies

0:57:34.080 --> 0:57:37.919
<v Speaker 1>being run more and more efficiently and more than anything else,

0:57:38.040 --> 0:57:40.040
<v Speaker 1>or at least as much as all that. We have

0:57:40.200 --> 0:57:43.920
<v Speaker 1>great institutional structure in this country. We have legal protections,

0:57:43.960 --> 0:57:46.960
<v Speaker 1>we have courts, we have laws, and no one's going

0:57:47.000 --> 0:57:50.320
<v Speaker 1>to take your stock away from you confiscated overnight and

0:57:51.200 --> 0:57:54.400
<v Speaker 1>shareholder rights are as good as any country in the world,

0:57:54.440 --> 0:57:56.520
<v Speaker 1>maybe with the exception of I don't think they do

0:57:56.600 --> 0:57:59.200
<v Speaker 1>any better, but they don't do any worse. Probably Switzerland

0:57:59.280 --> 0:58:02.280
<v Speaker 1>and Great Britain be the two big competitors. Now you see,

0:58:02.400 --> 0:58:04.840
<v Speaker 1>you see what happens in China, your stocks may not

0:58:05.000 --> 0:58:07.920
<v Speaker 1>be your stocks. It's very hard to be forget as

0:58:08.000 --> 0:58:11.400
<v Speaker 1>a as a local, as an international investor. It's very

0:58:11.480 --> 0:58:14.240
<v Speaker 1>hard to be an investor in China if you don't

0:58:14.360 --> 0:58:17.680
<v Speaker 1>know am I gonna be able to ever cash this out?

0:58:18.280 --> 0:58:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Or maybe there's gonna be a vacation period where no

0:58:21.240 --> 0:58:24.480
<v Speaker 1>sales for the next month, as we saw last year. Yeah,

0:58:24.480 --> 0:58:27.720
<v Speaker 1>and let me add to this that just about everybody

0:58:27.760 --> 0:58:30.240
<v Speaker 1>says I'm wrong, by the way, but everybody said I

0:58:30.320 --> 0:58:31.960
<v Speaker 1>was wrong with an index. I was gonna say. That's

0:58:31.960 --> 0:58:34.080
<v Speaker 1>only gonna make you, that's only gonna make you double

0:58:34.120 --> 0:58:36.400
<v Speaker 1>down and think you're right, because there's a track record

0:58:36.440 --> 0:58:39.440
<v Speaker 1>of people predicting you're gonna be wrong, and they've all

0:58:39.960 --> 0:58:42.800
<v Speaker 1>they've all proven themselves false. So but let me just

0:58:42.880 --> 0:58:46.120
<v Speaker 1>say one more thing. In international just think what would

0:58:46.160 --> 0:58:48.600
<v Speaker 1>you would have done if you had an internationally waited

0:58:48.920 --> 0:58:54.720
<v Speaker 1>or a non you wise waited in when you had

0:58:55.040 --> 0:58:58.680
<v Speaker 1>fifty percent, that is to say, five percent of your

0:58:58.720 --> 0:59:02.160
<v Speaker 1>money in Japan, right when the nick was forty six

0:59:02.280 --> 0:59:05.480
<v Speaker 1>thousand or something like that. No one was talking this

0:59:05.640 --> 0:59:09.880
<v Speaker 1>way then, But that could happen again, and I don't

0:59:09.920 --> 0:59:13.400
<v Speaker 1>think he should be subject to these funny speculative booms

0:59:13.440 --> 0:59:16.080
<v Speaker 1>that can take place in other countries. I just can't

0:59:16.160 --> 0:59:20.520
<v Speaker 1>imagine that there will be a significant advantage in international

0:59:20.680 --> 0:59:23.560
<v Speaker 1>companies over US companies. I'm not talking about stocks now,

0:59:23.960 --> 0:59:28.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about companies and economies over the US. Now, look,

0:59:28.080 --> 0:59:29.440
<v Speaker 1>I could be wrong on this, and if you think

0:59:29.480 --> 0:59:32.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm wrong, go buy all the international and non US

0:59:32.520 --> 0:59:35.600
<v Speaker 1>stocks you want by a non US stock index by

0:59:35.680 --> 0:59:39.520
<v Speaker 1>individual countries. I wouldn't do any of that. And what

0:59:39.720 --> 0:59:43.240
<v Speaker 1>we didn't even mention the currency side of things. How

0:59:43.640 --> 0:59:47.960
<v Speaker 1>significant is currency fluctuations to UH to this sort of

0:59:48.040 --> 0:59:52.280
<v Speaker 1>international exposure if you're domicile team in the US, what

0:59:52.760 --> 0:59:58.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of currency currencies here? Well, that that is an

0:59:58.080 --> 1:00:01.400
<v Speaker 1>issue because the dollar has been very strong, and it

1:00:01.480 --> 1:00:04.840
<v Speaker 1>won't be strong forever, because international trade has a way

1:00:04.880 --> 1:00:07.680
<v Speaker 1>of balancing out. When the dollar is strong, the trade

1:00:07.720 --> 1:00:10.040
<v Speaker 1>balance has changed and all that. So I don't think

1:00:10.040 --> 1:00:12.800
<v Speaker 1>you should count on a good strong dollar forever. So

1:00:12.960 --> 1:00:16.280
<v Speaker 1>won't won't, won't impact it. Let's let's talk UM. But

1:00:16.440 --> 1:00:18.880
<v Speaker 1>I want to talk a little more about Vanguard. But

1:00:19.040 --> 1:00:23.720
<v Speaker 1>before we get to that, to two last questions about indexing.

1:00:23.840 --> 1:00:27.040
<v Speaker 1>The first is is there any sort of active management

1:00:27.200 --> 1:00:31.320
<v Speaker 1>you would favor Vanguard about of the sets here or

1:00:31.360 --> 1:00:34.840
<v Speaker 1>in active managed funds. What do you think about having

1:00:34.880 --> 1:00:39.400
<v Speaker 1>a small slug of someone's portfolio in something that might

1:00:39.480 --> 1:00:43.120
<v Speaker 1>not be a passive index. Well, let me give you

1:00:43.200 --> 1:00:46.200
<v Speaker 1>this very important background about our actively managed funds, and

1:00:46.360 --> 1:00:49.040
<v Speaker 1>this is what I've been saying since we started Vanguard

1:00:49.600 --> 1:00:55.360
<v Speaker 1>in nineteen seventy four. I want our active management, actively

1:00:55.440 --> 1:00:59.680
<v Speaker 1>managed funds to have returns that are relatively predictable, relative

1:00:59.720 --> 1:01:03.240
<v Speaker 1>predict ability relative to their group. There they're group like

1:01:03.400 --> 1:01:06.240
<v Speaker 1>large cap value funds, a long term municipal mound, phones,

1:01:06.280 --> 1:01:10.920
<v Speaker 1>whatever it might be. UM, and the idea would be

1:01:12.760 --> 1:01:15.040
<v Speaker 1>look at those funds and not don't get too far

1:01:15.080 --> 1:01:17.920
<v Speaker 1>out of line so you'll have an average perform if

1:01:17.920 --> 1:01:20.080
<v Speaker 1>you If you have six managers, there's where the multi

1:01:20.160 --> 1:01:23.760
<v Speaker 1>manager thing comes from. If you have six managers, the

1:01:23.920 --> 1:01:25.880
<v Speaker 1>idea that they will do about the same as another,

1:01:26.000 --> 1:01:29.560
<v Speaker 1>as your competitive group with sixty managers is almost guaranteed

1:01:29.640 --> 1:01:31.920
<v Speaker 1>to do the same. So what's so good about that?

1:01:32.320 --> 1:01:34.160
<v Speaker 1>What's so good about that is we think we have

1:01:34.320 --> 1:01:37.240
<v Speaker 1>a one and a half percent to two cost advantage

1:01:37.680 --> 1:01:41.480
<v Speaker 1>through lower expenses, lower turnover, no sales loads, and we

1:01:41.520 --> 1:01:43.320
<v Speaker 1>should win by a point and a half a year,

1:01:43.920 --> 1:01:47.400
<v Speaker 1>not on brilliance, but on cost. So let's guarantee. Now,

1:01:47.560 --> 1:01:49.840
<v Speaker 1>let me just give you the punch line here. If

1:01:49.880 --> 1:01:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you win, what's so good about one over ten years?

1:01:53.480 --> 1:01:57.520
<v Speaker 1>You have a higher return. That that's tremendous. So I

1:01:57.720 --> 1:02:02.200
<v Speaker 1>previously interviewed your CEO and Airman Bill McNabb, and one

1:02:02.240 --> 1:02:05.520
<v Speaker 1>of the comments he had made is that he still

1:02:05.720 --> 1:02:10.880
<v Speaker 1>felt there was room to squeeze costs lower. You guys

1:02:10.960 --> 1:02:13.840
<v Speaker 1>are three and a half trillion dollars. Is there a

1:02:14.000 --> 1:02:16.480
<v Speaker 1>floor on how low costs can go or are you

1:02:16.600 --> 1:02:22.360
<v Speaker 1>eventually gonna run out of efficiencies? Well, we have yet

1:02:22.400 --> 1:02:26.280
<v Speaker 1>to squeeze cost lower because our costs go up and

1:02:26.480 --> 1:02:29.400
<v Speaker 1>up and up. But as a percentage you can squeeze

1:02:29.400 --> 1:02:33.560
<v Speaker 1>a little lower on a per well dollar invested basis.

1:02:34.160 --> 1:02:36.600
<v Speaker 1>Is there no one to disagree with our CEO. But

1:02:37.360 --> 1:02:40.560
<v Speaker 1>it's not we're squeezing, but we're the captive of the market.

1:02:41.240 --> 1:02:43.800
<v Speaker 1>If the market goes way down, our expense ratio is

1:02:43.880 --> 1:02:46.840
<v Speaker 1>going to go up. There's no way we could squeeze

1:02:46.960 --> 1:02:50.880
<v Speaker 1>enough out of our expenses if we had less assets.

1:02:51.640 --> 1:02:54.960
<v Speaker 1>So we should be very careful about expenses, and we are.

1:02:55.400 --> 1:02:58.560
<v Speaker 1>I think we're managed in a very strong way, but

1:02:59.520 --> 1:03:03.320
<v Speaker 1>we're The expense ratio is a combination of something we

1:03:03.400 --> 1:03:06.240
<v Speaker 1>can control more or less how much we spend, and

1:03:06.360 --> 1:03:08.360
<v Speaker 1>something we can't control at all, the level of the

1:03:08.400 --> 1:03:13.360
<v Speaker 1>stock market. So the expense ratio is a mystery in

1:03:13.520 --> 1:03:16.919
<v Speaker 1>the whether gupper Dad. Now, if it goes way down,

1:03:17.160 --> 1:03:20.400
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna mean we have very good markets. That sounds great.

1:03:20.680 --> 1:03:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Can indexing ever get too big or can indexing ever

1:03:26.160 --> 1:03:29.040
<v Speaker 1>take over the market as some people have alluded, or

1:03:29.280 --> 1:03:32.440
<v Speaker 1>is there a place for a combination of indexing and

1:03:32.560 --> 1:03:36.960
<v Speaker 1>active managers in the actual marketplace? Well, it's not in

1:03:37.040 --> 1:03:40.200
<v Speaker 1>the nature of things that in indexing could be of

1:03:40.240 --> 1:03:43.680
<v Speaker 1>the market. If it were, we would have chaos. There

1:03:43.720 --> 1:03:46.320
<v Speaker 1>will be no evaluations, there'll be no liquidity, there'll be

1:03:46.360 --> 1:03:49.680
<v Speaker 1>no enny. So what are the chances that indexing get

1:03:49.760 --> 1:03:54.920
<v Speaker 1>to zero? Right now? It's I think I had of

1:03:54.960 --> 1:03:57.760
<v Speaker 1>the total market of the mutual fund industry, of the

1:03:57.800 --> 1:04:03.080
<v Speaker 1>equity mutual fund industry, and so it means that that

1:04:04.000 --> 1:04:08.280
<v Speaker 1>hunk of business is in broadly stated, just removed from

1:04:08.320 --> 1:04:12.440
<v Speaker 1>the turnover level. So if a turnover, we're in the

1:04:12.520 --> 1:04:17.600
<v Speaker 1>end market indexed the turnover. I came into this business

1:04:17.640 --> 1:04:22.160
<v Speaker 1>when turnover was and everything was fine. It's gonna take

1:04:22.200 --> 1:04:25.040
<v Speaker 1>a long time to get the pent a long long

1:04:25.160 --> 1:04:27.840
<v Speaker 1>time and maybe never gets there. So when you put

1:04:27.920 --> 1:04:30.440
<v Speaker 1>reality in the face of the theory that if everybody

1:04:30.480 --> 1:04:34.800
<v Speaker 1>indexes uh, then then it's going to be just it's

1:04:34.800 --> 1:04:37.400
<v Speaker 1>just not gonna happen. But the other thing is people

1:04:37.520 --> 1:04:40.480
<v Speaker 1>follow this statement by saying, if the market gets more

1:04:40.520 --> 1:04:43.480
<v Speaker 1>and more indexed, then it will be less efficient and

1:04:43.600 --> 1:04:48.400
<v Speaker 1>we'll be able to beat it more easily. No, unequivocally, no,

1:04:49.280 --> 1:04:52.240
<v Speaker 1>some will beat it, some will lose to it if

1:04:52.320 --> 1:04:56.440
<v Speaker 1>they If the market is is less efficient and the

1:04:56.840 --> 1:04:59.920
<v Speaker 1>and the winners and the losers will average, the more

1:05:00.040 --> 1:05:04.160
<v Speaker 1>can return. There's no way around that. So that leads

1:05:04.200 --> 1:05:06.720
<v Speaker 1>me to a quote of yours, and I have to

1:05:06.760 --> 1:05:09.760
<v Speaker 1>ask you about it because I find it's fascinating. You

1:05:09.960 --> 1:05:14.840
<v Speaker 1>once wrote, the stock market is a giant distraction to

1:05:15.040 --> 1:05:20.160
<v Speaker 1>the business of investing. Explain well, investing is about the

1:05:20.200 --> 1:05:24.000
<v Speaker 1>long term, and investing is about earning what I call

1:05:24.080 --> 1:05:27.240
<v Speaker 1>the investment return, which is the dimon end yield when

1:05:27.240 --> 1:05:29.760
<v Speaker 1>you go into the stock market and the earnings growth

1:05:29.840 --> 1:05:33.560
<v Speaker 1>that follows. That's investment return. The market return is also

1:05:33.640 --> 1:05:36.800
<v Speaker 1>has a speculative return, and that is is the price

1:05:36.880 --> 1:05:39.200
<v Speaker 1>earnings multiple of the evaluation is high or low when

1:05:39.240 --> 1:05:41.400
<v Speaker 1>you come in, and if they're high, they're going to

1:05:41.480 --> 1:05:45.240
<v Speaker 1>detract from that return, and evaluations are low and they're

1:05:45.280 --> 1:05:47.040
<v Speaker 1>going to add to that return because the low will

1:05:48.160 --> 1:05:52.120
<v Speaker 1>in in the valuations. The price earnings multiple reverts to

1:05:52.200 --> 1:05:56.800
<v Speaker 1>the mean perfectly. It's about what today. Although it's a

1:05:56.800 --> 1:05:58.600
<v Speaker 1>little bit higher than this today because the market is

1:05:58.600 --> 1:06:02.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit isn't hardly inexpensive, But the reality is

1:06:02.840 --> 1:06:06.120
<v Speaker 1>it's just about the same level it was. So we

1:06:06.240 --> 1:06:09.680
<v Speaker 1>had ups and downs, booms bust in the long run,

1:06:09.760 --> 1:06:13.280
<v Speaker 1>speculative return at zero. So concentrate on the investment return.

1:06:13.800 --> 1:06:17.200
<v Speaker 1>Forget the speculative return, which is very difficult to predict,

1:06:17.880 --> 1:06:21.240
<v Speaker 1>and just get with business can give you now if

1:06:21.280 --> 1:06:24.920
<v Speaker 1>you look every day, you're apt to do something. And

1:06:25.040 --> 1:06:29.000
<v Speaker 1>one of my basic rules is don't do something, just

1:06:29.160 --> 1:06:31.800
<v Speaker 1>stand there. And if you've been doing that this year,

1:06:31.880 --> 1:06:33.360
<v Speaker 1>I think you're a lot better off. This is a

1:06:33.440 --> 1:06:36.000
<v Speaker 1>tough year so far, not that bad. I mean, you

1:06:36.320 --> 1:06:39.080
<v Speaker 1>think the SMP is off about three and a half percent,

1:06:39.120 --> 1:06:42.240
<v Speaker 1>it's really nothing. And although you think it was the

1:06:42.320 --> 1:06:46.440
<v Speaker 1>end of the world, uh so, it's Don't let the

1:06:46.520 --> 1:06:51.240
<v Speaker 1>stock market moves distract you. They are a tale told

1:06:51.280 --> 1:06:54.720
<v Speaker 1>by an idiot. These moves, daily moves, hourly been minute

1:06:54.760 --> 1:06:58.440
<v Speaker 1>by minute moves, a tale told by an idiot, full

1:06:58.520 --> 1:07:02.080
<v Speaker 1>of sound and furious, signifying nothing. I have a bunch

1:07:02.160 --> 1:07:05.840
<v Speaker 1>of questions that I ask all of my guests, but

1:07:06.000 --> 1:07:10.560
<v Speaker 1>they're all specific to each individual because they're so um

1:07:12.040 --> 1:07:15.840
<v Speaker 1>so so detailed. So who are your early mentors? I

1:07:15.960 --> 1:07:19.280
<v Speaker 1>know in one of your books you mentioned somebody, Uh

1:07:19.440 --> 1:07:23.400
<v Speaker 1>you thank somebody who you had mentioned in uh the

1:07:23.520 --> 1:07:27.120
<v Speaker 1>earlier part of of the conversation, who do you think

1:07:27.200 --> 1:07:31.760
<v Speaker 1>of as as mentors? Well outside of my teachers, by

1:07:32.120 --> 1:07:35.120
<v Speaker 1>my first real grown up mentor was a guy named

1:07:35.200 --> 1:07:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Jim Harrington who was a graduate student and engineer at

1:07:38.040 --> 1:07:41.800
<v Speaker 1>Princeton University, and he was running the Athletic Ticket Association

1:07:41.840 --> 1:07:46.280
<v Speaker 1>ticket office and when he stopped doing that. He pulled

1:07:46.280 --> 1:07:47.640
<v Speaker 1>me out of the crowd and asked me to run

1:07:47.680 --> 1:07:50.000
<v Speaker 1>in for him. So I learned how to do a job,

1:07:50.280 --> 1:07:52.080
<v Speaker 1>and I learned how to do it with integrity, and

1:07:52.160 --> 1:07:54.120
<v Speaker 1>I learned how to do it with on time. I

1:07:54.240 --> 1:07:57.240
<v Speaker 1>learned how to do it with keeping my emotions out

1:07:57.280 --> 1:08:01.280
<v Speaker 1>of it. This is just selling tickets to Princeton students

1:08:01.360 --> 1:08:06.160
<v Speaker 1>forts basketball, baseball, whatever it might be, particularly football, And

1:08:06.280 --> 1:08:09.040
<v Speaker 1>that was a seminal experience to you, uh and helped

1:08:09.120 --> 1:08:11.919
<v Speaker 1>form your your own character. He had just a great

1:08:12.040 --> 1:08:14.800
<v Speaker 1>sense of business values and like all engineers he was

1:08:15.200 --> 1:08:17.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, they kind of go step by step right.

1:08:17.320 --> 1:08:19.400
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes it's not a lot of exciting, but it's always

1:08:19.520 --> 1:08:23.080
<v Speaker 1>right structured, organized, and and you're dealing with a lot

1:08:23.160 --> 1:08:27.320
<v Speaker 1>of money. And sure, what Princeton Stadium is how many people?

1:08:27.479 --> 1:08:30.120
<v Speaker 1>That's ah? And that was the old Palmer Stadium that

1:08:30.240 --> 1:08:33.960
<v Speaker 1>held people, right, and now it's almost double that size.

1:08:34.000 --> 1:08:36.719
<v Speaker 1>It's it's huge. Isn't we want way down? We're about

1:08:37.520 --> 1:08:39.639
<v Speaker 1>you want the other direction, okay, And we can't fill

1:08:39.680 --> 1:08:41.920
<v Speaker 1>it now. We used to every every game I worked

1:08:41.960 --> 1:08:44.160
<v Speaker 1>with the sellout right, that was back in the day,

1:08:44.240 --> 1:08:47.920
<v Speaker 1>So that was really quite an education. Um, you dedicated

1:08:48.040 --> 1:08:51.760
<v Speaker 1>common Sense on mutual funds to Walter Morgan? Who is

1:08:51.840 --> 1:08:54.360
<v Speaker 1>he in your in your pantheon? Well, he was the

1:08:54.400 --> 1:08:57.639
<v Speaker 1>greatest of my mentor is he hired me? He read

1:08:57.720 --> 1:09:00.840
<v Speaker 1>my thesis out of Princeton. He wrote, I think a

1:09:00.920 --> 1:09:04.760
<v Speaker 1>little bit over the top that Mr bogel knew more

1:09:04.800 --> 1:09:06.560
<v Speaker 1>than he did about them than we did about the

1:09:06.640 --> 1:09:10.400
<v Speaker 1>mutual fund industry. And so he liked it. And he

1:09:10.520 --> 1:09:14.640
<v Speaker 1>was a Princetonian himself, class of nineteen twenty, and I

1:09:14.720 --> 1:09:18.200
<v Speaker 1>was the class of nineteen fifty one, and I watched

1:09:18.240 --> 1:09:20.920
<v Speaker 1>him work. He was very much a renaissance man, interested

1:09:20.920 --> 1:09:24.040
<v Speaker 1>in investing, interested in marketing, probably less interested in the

1:09:24.280 --> 1:09:27.040
<v Speaker 1>detail of the business share old of record keeping and stuff,

1:09:27.080 --> 1:09:29.720
<v Speaker 1>which was so much simpler those days, but also a

1:09:29.800 --> 1:09:33.560
<v Speaker 1>renaissance man in terms of his interest. He was um outdoorsman,

1:09:33.600 --> 1:09:37.519
<v Speaker 1>a hunter, a fisherman, things that I that I don't

1:09:37.560 --> 1:09:40.160
<v Speaker 1>do at all. And but he had a high sense

1:09:40.240 --> 1:09:44.200
<v Speaker 1>of standards. And he they said at the beginning, and

1:09:45.320 --> 1:09:47.160
<v Speaker 1>UH turned the company over to me when I was

1:09:47.200 --> 1:09:49.479
<v Speaker 1>thirty five years old, So I must have had an

1:09:49.520 --> 1:09:52.360
<v Speaker 1>awful lot of confidence in me, and I saved Wellington

1:09:52.439 --> 1:09:55.439
<v Speaker 1>Fund finally for him, after the catastrophe I described earlier,

1:09:56.000 --> 1:09:58.680
<v Speaker 1>we told Wellington Management Company how we wanted to run

1:09:59.400 --> 1:10:01.680
<v Speaker 1>and they've been running it that way ever since. We've met.

1:10:02.000 --> 1:10:05.880
<v Speaker 1>Much more focus on income and income stocks and less

1:10:05.880 --> 1:10:08.680
<v Speaker 1>focus on growth stocks, and it's worked out. We had

1:10:08.720 --> 1:10:11.640
<v Speaker 1>a whole renaissance of the Welling and Fund and he

1:10:11.760 --> 1:10:14.280
<v Speaker 1>saw a lot of that, and he was he he

1:10:14.920 --> 1:10:17.920
<v Speaker 1>died but the year that book came out, and a

1:10:18.000 --> 1:10:19.840
<v Speaker 1>little bit before, but I had shown him the title

1:10:19.920 --> 1:10:22.439
<v Speaker 1>page with his name on it. He was very pleased

1:10:22.640 --> 1:10:25.519
<v Speaker 1>and very pleased with the revival and renaissance of his

1:10:26.000 --> 1:10:28.839
<v Speaker 1>wonderful Welling and fun I barely had a moral obligation

1:10:29.520 --> 1:10:33.960
<v Speaker 1>say it. So what about other investors who hasn't influenced

1:10:34.479 --> 1:10:39.679
<v Speaker 1>your thought process, your philosophy, Perhaps not your approach to investing,

1:10:39.840 --> 1:10:45.280
<v Speaker 1>but what other investors have colored your worldview? Well, you

1:10:45.360 --> 1:10:49.960
<v Speaker 1>certainly start with Benjamin Graham. He's the basically ground zero

1:10:50.760 --> 1:10:53.720
<v Speaker 1>and the intelligent investor. His book, I hadn't like, the

1:10:53.760 --> 1:10:57.200
<v Speaker 1>fourth edition, which is much more into into the I

1:10:57.240 --> 1:11:00.719
<v Speaker 1>think it was nineteen seventy four, has much more about

1:11:00.840 --> 1:11:03.639
<v Speaker 1>mutual funds and things of that nature. And he's very

1:11:03.680 --> 1:11:06.720
<v Speaker 1>clear on that, and so he would certainly be one.

1:11:07.560 --> 1:11:12.760
<v Speaker 1>Um Mr Morgan, um Mr Brin had a couple of associates,

1:11:12.840 --> 1:11:15.240
<v Speaker 1>Joe Welsh, the president of the company, and Andy Young,

1:11:15.360 --> 1:11:19.320
<v Speaker 1>his lawyer, very quick, quick witted, smart guy, and they

1:11:19.439 --> 1:11:21.960
<v Speaker 1>all saw something in me. I don't know what it

1:11:22.160 --> 1:11:25.719
<v Speaker 1>was that gave them confidence that I had the judgment

1:11:25.800 --> 1:11:28.840
<v Speaker 1>to do the job. And another, interestingly enough, another one

1:11:28.840 --> 1:11:31.360
<v Speaker 1>of my great mentors was the man who when I

1:11:31.400 --> 1:11:33.840
<v Speaker 1>came on the investment company's two board of governors, he

1:11:33.960 --> 1:11:37.160
<v Speaker 1>was the chairman. His name was d. George Sullivan and

1:11:37.240 --> 1:11:41.840
<v Speaker 1>he was executive vice president of Fidelity. Oh really, and

1:11:41.960 --> 1:11:46.400
<v Speaker 1>we had a great relationship. That's fascinated and so he

1:11:46.439 --> 1:11:49.560
<v Speaker 1>would have been you know, if people have confidence in you,

1:11:49.640 --> 1:11:52.320
<v Speaker 1>they bring out your best and he really did, and

1:11:52.479 --> 1:11:55.960
<v Speaker 1>Mr Morgan did, and Mr Welsh did, Andy Young did,

1:11:56.720 --> 1:11:59.800
<v Speaker 1>and so that those would be the big names I think,

1:12:01.040 --> 1:12:04.160
<v Speaker 1>both as mentors and investors. Let's let's talk about books.

1:12:04.640 --> 1:12:08.960
<v Speaker 1>You've written your fair share of books. Who's what other

1:12:09.120 --> 1:12:13.240
<v Speaker 1>authors books being on investing or what have you have

1:12:13.400 --> 1:12:16.599
<v Speaker 1>you enjoyed? What what books would you recommend to people? Well,

1:12:16.600 --> 1:12:20.679
<v Speaker 1>I've already mentioned The Intelligent Investor by Graham Intelligent Investor

1:12:20.760 --> 1:12:23.360
<v Speaker 1>by Graham. I think Bert Malkil, who's a friend of

1:12:23.400 --> 1:12:26.400
<v Speaker 1>ours and friend of mine and former foremer director here

1:12:26.520 --> 1:12:29.320
<v Speaker 1>for many, many years and are really the best director

1:12:29.360 --> 1:12:32.599
<v Speaker 1>we've ever had outside director at his random Walked down

1:12:32.680 --> 1:12:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street, which updated every couple of years is another UM.

1:12:38.400 --> 1:12:43.759
<v Speaker 1>David Swinson's book On for the Individual Investor is really superb.

1:12:45.000 --> 1:12:49.200
<v Speaker 1>Peter Bernstein's Against the Gods Just I just read that

1:12:49.320 --> 1:12:52.360
<v Speaker 1>over the holidays, fantastic book. Well, he was a very

1:12:52.400 --> 1:12:54.920
<v Speaker 1>gifted man. We were very close Peter and I, and

1:12:55.040 --> 1:12:58.120
<v Speaker 1>we had our little disagreements here and there, but overall

1:12:58.200 --> 1:13:00.839
<v Speaker 1>we were on the same team. And then Bill Bernstein

1:13:01.600 --> 1:13:04.519
<v Speaker 1>Four Pillars of Investment Wisdom is A is A is

1:13:04.560 --> 1:13:08.920
<v Speaker 1>a wonderful book, and there aren't. It's hard me to

1:13:08.960 --> 1:13:10.840
<v Speaker 1>go a lot, a lot beyond that, to be honest

1:13:10.880 --> 1:13:13.360
<v Speaker 1>with you. Well, that that's a great starting list right there.

1:13:13.400 --> 1:13:16.280
<v Speaker 1>You can certainly do worse than any of those half

1:13:16.360 --> 1:13:20.719
<v Speaker 1>dozen books. UM. We've talked a lot about how you've

1:13:20.960 --> 1:13:25.040
<v Speaker 1>changed the industry since you began way back in the

1:13:25.160 --> 1:13:28.880
<v Speaker 1>sixties and seventies. How else has the industry changed that

1:13:29.080 --> 1:13:32.679
<v Speaker 1>you think is either for the better or for the worst.

1:13:32.760 --> 1:13:37.840
<v Speaker 1>What what stands out as to how finance has evolved

1:13:37.920 --> 1:13:41.200
<v Speaker 1>over those those years. I think when I came into

1:13:41.240 --> 1:13:45.519
<v Speaker 1>this industry in it was a much better industry than

1:13:45.560 --> 1:13:49.599
<v Speaker 1>it was thereafter. The big part of that change within

1:13:49.680 --> 1:13:52.040
<v Speaker 1>the Go go era, when we had this idea, we

1:13:52.120 --> 1:13:56.479
<v Speaker 1>went from investment committees, prudent investment committees buying blue chip stocks,

1:13:57.080 --> 1:14:03.320
<v Speaker 1>to portfolio managers comments uh and not stars, comments that

1:14:04.320 --> 1:14:06.920
<v Speaker 1>burn out and their ashes drift gently down to earth.

1:14:07.479 --> 1:14:11.120
<v Speaker 1>And that's happened to so many, so many comment managers.

1:14:11.200 --> 1:14:13.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you can hardly lose count. You wonder the

1:14:13.920 --> 1:14:18.320
<v Speaker 1>real the real superstars just don't stay there, you know.

1:14:18.360 --> 1:14:20.439
<v Speaker 1>I always just to wish Bill Miller, well, he beat

1:14:20.760 --> 1:14:23.120
<v Speaker 1>He's at leg Mason. He beat the market, I think

1:14:23.200 --> 1:14:25.840
<v Speaker 1>sixteen years in a row, and every time I saw him,

1:14:26.200 --> 1:14:28.880
<v Speaker 1>I'd say good luck, good luck in the future. I

1:14:29.000 --> 1:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>liked them. My wishes of good luck didn't do any

1:14:32.880 --> 1:14:37.040
<v Speaker 1>good at all. He very famously imploded and went from

1:14:37.120 --> 1:14:40.800
<v Speaker 1>the literally the top performing fund to the bottom one

1:14:40.880 --> 1:14:44.720
<v Speaker 1>percent following the financial crisis. What had worked for him

1:14:44.800 --> 1:14:48.280
<v Speaker 1>previously just eventually stopped working, and he got caught in

1:14:48.360 --> 1:14:51.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot of paper that turned out to be not

1:14:51.360 --> 1:14:53.559
<v Speaker 1>worth what he thought it was well in an earlier area.

1:14:53.640 --> 1:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>Remember Gerald Say ran Fideliti Capital Fund, and he had

1:14:59.080 --> 1:15:00.920
<v Speaker 1>the best record in the business. He goes out and

1:15:01.000 --> 1:15:05.040
<v Speaker 1>starts his own fund, Manhattan Fund gets a huge underwriting.

1:15:05.080 --> 1:15:06.880
<v Speaker 1>It was four a million dollars. Nobody ever sent anything

1:15:06.960 --> 1:15:10.240
<v Speaker 1>like that in this business. That's the old days. And

1:15:10.400 --> 1:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>it had after ten years of operation, the worst record

1:15:14.160 --> 1:15:18.280
<v Speaker 1>in the mutual fund industry. And you know, I tell people,

1:15:18.720 --> 1:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>when you think about the nature of the securities markets,

1:15:21.600 --> 1:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>it's gifts as difficult to be last as it is

1:15:24.479 --> 1:15:28.559
<v Speaker 1>to be first. What was his name about that? That's amazing?

1:15:28.640 --> 1:15:30.800
<v Speaker 1>What was his name again? Gerald Side t s A

1:15:30.920 --> 1:15:34.320
<v Speaker 1>I T s A great um. So some of my

1:15:34.920 --> 1:15:40.519
<v Speaker 1>my last few questions. You've mentioned a lot of things

1:15:40.600 --> 1:15:43.320
<v Speaker 1>have changed since nineteen fifty one. What do you see

1:15:43.360 --> 1:15:47.160
<v Speaker 1>as changing in the future. I guess I'd say, not

1:15:47.320 --> 1:15:50.479
<v Speaker 1>to beat the phrase to death, reversion to the mean.

1:15:50.600 --> 1:15:53.720
<v Speaker 1>I see the industry going back to its roots. Uh,

1:15:54.080 --> 1:15:56.519
<v Speaker 1>much more of a fiduciary focus, I hope. So I'm

1:15:56.640 --> 1:15:59.519
<v Speaker 1>very much in favor of the fiduciary rule, although someone

1:15:59.560 --> 1:16:01.880
<v Speaker 1>else's have to work out the details that seemed to

1:16:01.920 --> 1:16:05.519
<v Speaker 1>make it difficult to operate, and uh, but it shouldn't

1:16:05.520 --> 1:16:08.000
<v Speaker 1>make it difficult to operate because all you have to

1:16:08.040 --> 1:16:11.080
<v Speaker 1>do is ask yourself as an advisor, one question, Hey,

1:16:11.200 --> 1:16:13.080
<v Speaker 1>is this in the client's best interest? And if the

1:16:13.120 --> 1:16:16.639
<v Speaker 1>answer is no, you can't do it. It's much simpler

1:16:17.160 --> 1:16:21.280
<v Speaker 1>than the complicated suitability rules, which have all sorts of

1:16:22.120 --> 1:16:25.320
<v Speaker 1>ifs and thens and clauses best interests of the client.

1:16:25.479 --> 1:16:28.040
<v Speaker 1>Yes you can do it, No you can't. What could

1:16:28.080 --> 1:16:30.320
<v Speaker 1>be what could be easier when you unfortunately kind of

1:16:30.400 --> 1:16:33.000
<v Speaker 1>documentation how you're doing things. In all that, it is

1:16:33.160 --> 1:16:36.080
<v Speaker 1>a little laborious because we have to have you know,

1:16:36.160 --> 1:16:38.960
<v Speaker 1>a lot of lawyers work on this, and you and

1:16:39.080 --> 1:16:41.720
<v Speaker 1>I have the spirit of fiduciary duty and they've got

1:16:41.800 --> 1:16:43.639
<v Speaker 1>to get to the letter of it. And it's it's

1:16:43.720 --> 1:16:46.240
<v Speaker 1>more complex than it ought to be, but it's coming.

1:16:46.960 --> 1:16:49.439
<v Speaker 1>And you know, with so many funds being flashes in

1:16:49.520 --> 1:16:54.600
<v Speaker 1>the pan, investors are going to learn by their own experience.

1:16:55.240 --> 1:16:56.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, I was told this was a great fund,

1:16:57.320 --> 1:16:59.560
<v Speaker 1>and it was a great fund for two days and

1:16:59.680 --> 1:17:02.920
<v Speaker 1>that was the end of it. Uh. And we overestimate

1:17:02.960 --> 1:17:06.160
<v Speaker 1>our own ability to pick funds in stocks. We over

1:17:06.320 --> 1:17:10.160
<v Speaker 1>overestimate the ability of our managers to do better consistently,

1:17:10.560 --> 1:17:12.960
<v Speaker 1>and if people just got the idea of reversion of

1:17:13.000 --> 1:17:15.400
<v Speaker 1>the mean again and again and again. You know the

1:17:15.840 --> 1:17:17.719
<v Speaker 1>we were looking at some data the other day, Barry,

1:17:18.360 --> 1:17:21.760
<v Speaker 1>and if you're in the top quartile for a given

1:17:21.800 --> 1:17:25.280
<v Speaker 1>five year period, only fifteen percent of you are going

1:17:25.320 --> 1:17:27.720
<v Speaker 1>to be in the top quartile in the next five

1:17:27.840 --> 1:17:32.000
<v Speaker 1>year period. And if you're in the bottom quartile of

1:17:32.120 --> 1:17:34.400
<v Speaker 1>you will be in the top quartile in the next period.

1:17:35.080 --> 1:17:38.040
<v Speaker 1>And over time, that sort of returns don't help help anybody.

1:17:38.080 --> 1:17:40.880
<v Speaker 1>I think was Howard Marx who said, if you're consistently

1:17:40.920 --> 1:17:43.840
<v Speaker 1>in the top forty over time, that puts you in

1:17:43.920 --> 1:17:46.400
<v Speaker 1>the top ten percent. But you have to be consistent.

1:17:46.520 --> 1:17:50.439
<v Speaker 1>You can't be a shooting star, outperforming, under performing, out

1:17:50.479 --> 1:17:53.720
<v Speaker 1>performing under performing. You have to be top forty. But

1:17:53.800 --> 1:17:58.040
<v Speaker 1>he runs a distress bond funds, not not necessarily a

1:17:58.120 --> 1:18:00.280
<v Speaker 1>stock pick. Let me, let me add us if mame,

1:18:00.360 --> 1:18:03.519
<v Speaker 1>what is the objective of the individual investor. It's to

1:18:03.600 --> 1:18:08.200
<v Speaker 1>have a lifetime of investing. Investing for a lifetime. And

1:18:08.320 --> 1:18:10.880
<v Speaker 1>for a young investor, believe it or not, twenty five

1:18:10.920 --> 1:18:14.960
<v Speaker 1>year old investor has a seventy year life expectancy seventy years,

1:18:15.000 --> 1:18:17.840
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna be probably be a hundred. So what's the

1:18:17.920 --> 1:18:20.920
<v Speaker 1>best way to invest for seventy years. If a mutual

1:18:20.960 --> 1:18:24.720
<v Speaker 1>fund manager lasts for seven years, that's the average, you're

1:18:24.760 --> 1:18:27.639
<v Speaker 1>gonna have ten of them. The average fund goes out

1:18:27.680 --> 1:18:33.880
<v Speaker 1>of business every every decade, every decade, excuse me, really,

1:18:33.920 --> 1:18:36.559
<v Speaker 1>it's that high. That's and then the news the new

1:18:36.640 --> 1:18:40.479
<v Speaker 1>guy comes in and sweeps clean. Managers get fired. There

1:18:40.640 --> 1:18:44.599
<v Speaker 1>is no way, none, zero, that if you own three

1:18:44.720 --> 1:18:47.400
<v Speaker 1>or four mutual funds, which is typical, there is no

1:18:47.560 --> 1:18:50.439
<v Speaker 1>way that over seventy years, you have even a fighting

1:18:50.560 --> 1:18:53.479
<v Speaker 1>chance to beat the market. And if you do the

1:18:53.560 --> 1:18:56.479
<v Speaker 1>index fund, I guarantee you that you will have the

1:18:56.560 --> 1:19:00.559
<v Speaker 1>same non manager seventy years from now as the manager

1:19:00.640 --> 1:19:04.000
<v Speaker 1>you have today. So that raises a really interesting question,

1:19:04.120 --> 1:19:08.680
<v Speaker 1>which happens to be coincidentally one of my last two questions.

1:19:09.479 --> 1:19:12.160
<v Speaker 1>What advice would you give to a millennial or a

1:19:12.280 --> 1:19:16.800
<v Speaker 1>kid just graduating college today beginning their career. What would

1:19:16.840 --> 1:19:18.840
<v Speaker 1>you tell them about what they should do with their

1:19:18.920 --> 1:19:22.800
<v Speaker 1>career and what would you tell them about investment? Well,

1:19:22.920 --> 1:19:24.760
<v Speaker 1>people have to find their own way in this life.

1:19:24.880 --> 1:19:27.519
<v Speaker 1>And I've I've talked to a number of groups at Princeton,

1:19:28.479 --> 1:19:32.240
<v Speaker 1>one on religion and business and one on ethics and business,

1:19:32.280 --> 1:19:34.840
<v Speaker 1>two separate groups. And one is a small seminar and

1:19:34.880 --> 1:19:37.080
<v Speaker 1>one of a large lecture course. And I get that

1:19:37.200 --> 1:19:39.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of lecture. Should I not go into the financial business?

1:19:40.360 --> 1:19:43.160
<v Speaker 1>And I say, no, go into the financial business and

1:19:43.240 --> 1:19:45.719
<v Speaker 1>make it better than it is today. You know, I don't.

1:19:45.960 --> 1:19:48.040
<v Speaker 1>People have to find their own way in this life.

1:19:48.160 --> 1:19:50.640
<v Speaker 1>I had to find my own way, Barry, you have

1:19:50.760 --> 1:19:53.760
<v Speaker 1>defined your own way, a lot of bumps along the way.

1:19:54.400 --> 1:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>You gotta have a little residience. You've got to be

1:19:56.720 --> 1:19:59.360
<v Speaker 1>able to take defeat and turn into victory. I think

1:19:59.400 --> 1:20:04.800
<v Speaker 1>that's what i'd maybe a little bit. And and so

1:20:06.240 --> 1:20:09.639
<v Speaker 1>it's this, This deal is going to shrink hugely. There's

1:20:09.640 --> 1:20:12.439
<v Speaker 1>no question about that. It already has just since oh nine,

1:20:12.600 --> 1:20:15.800
<v Speaker 1>no doubt about it. The combination of technology and the

1:20:16.040 --> 1:20:21.320
<v Speaker 1>knowledge and the spread of this disease called indexing is

1:20:21.360 --> 1:20:24.799
<v Speaker 1>not going to go away. It's habit forming, it's catching,

1:20:25.640 --> 1:20:29.120
<v Speaker 1>it's contagious, it's spreading. And and my final question, and

1:20:29.200 --> 1:20:32.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm I feel awful that it's a ninety minutes

1:20:32.160 --> 1:20:34.920
<v Speaker 1>is already up. I'd like to continue going for another

1:20:35.040 --> 1:20:38.439
<v Speaker 1>ninety minutes. What is it that you know about investing

1:20:38.640 --> 1:20:41.920
<v Speaker 1>today that you wish you knew when you started in

1:20:42.080 --> 1:20:45.920
<v Speaker 1>nineteen fifty one. Well, I'd say quite a bit. I mean,

1:20:46.000 --> 1:20:48.439
<v Speaker 1>I I was on the Welling and Fund Investment Committee,

1:20:48.600 --> 1:20:50.479
<v Speaker 1>and I saw how what hard it was to beat

1:20:50.520 --> 1:20:52.519
<v Speaker 1>the market. I wouldn't have told you that back in

1:20:54.240 --> 1:20:56.360
<v Speaker 1>and I worked for a long time with John Neff,

1:20:56.479 --> 1:20:59.880
<v Speaker 1>who had many, many years of success in beating the market.

1:21:00.160 --> 1:21:02.800
<v Speaker 1>But he's an exception, and even his record and in

1:21:03.040 --> 1:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>later years deteriorated. But then he mean, he hadn't gonna,

1:21:06.520 --> 1:21:08.920
<v Speaker 1>He's not running winds are funny, ran it for thirty years,

1:21:08.960 --> 1:21:11.240
<v Speaker 1>I think, But he's not gonna. He's not running it anymore.

1:21:11.840 --> 1:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>So managers come and go. So I'd say things like

1:21:15.840 --> 1:21:20.800
<v Speaker 1>the power of compounding, the beauty of keeping costs low, uh,

1:21:21.320 --> 1:21:27.120
<v Speaker 1>the need to ignore the market, they need to do something.

1:21:27.840 --> 1:21:30.960
<v Speaker 1>Are all things that have and and the difficulty. This

1:21:31.120 --> 1:21:34.679
<v Speaker 1>is a very very hard business, this business of investment management.

1:21:35.280 --> 1:21:38.160
<v Speaker 1>And in the long run, we're all average, we're below

1:21:38.240 --> 1:21:42.439
<v Speaker 1>averages my thesis suggested, below the market averages. And so

1:21:43.120 --> 1:21:45.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's easy, don't think you're smarter than

1:21:45.880 --> 1:21:49.479
<v Speaker 1>anybody else. Just get in the middle, get costs out,

1:21:50.640 --> 1:21:56.760
<v Speaker 1>and don't peak. John Boggle, this has been a fascinating conversation.

1:21:57.320 --> 1:21:59.879
<v Speaker 1>I again, thank you so much for being so generous

1:22:00.360 --> 1:22:03.960
<v Speaker 1>with your time. If you enjoy this conversation, you could

1:22:04.000 --> 1:22:06.479
<v Speaker 1>look up an Inch or down an Inch on Apple

1:22:06.560 --> 1:22:09.800
<v Speaker 1>iTunes and see the other eighty or so of these

1:22:09.880 --> 1:22:13.519
<v Speaker 1>that we've had. UH. Be sure and check out uh

1:22:13.880 --> 1:22:17.200
<v Speaker 1>all the rest of our our chats. They're really quite fascinating.

1:22:17.600 --> 1:22:20.679
<v Speaker 1>I have to thank Mike bat Nick, my head of research,

1:22:21.040 --> 1:22:24.519
<v Speaker 1>for helping to put together all these questions. My producer

1:22:24.720 --> 1:22:28.479
<v Speaker 1>and engineer Charlie Vollmer for dragging himself out of bed

1:22:28.560 --> 1:22:31.200
<v Speaker 1>at an undoddly hour in the morning to drive here

1:22:31.840 --> 1:22:36.439
<v Speaker 1>to Malvern, Pennsylvania to Vanguard UH mother ship. Jack, thank

1:22:36.479 --> 1:22:39.559
<v Speaker 1>you again so much. This has been absolutely fascinating. Great

1:22:39.640 --> 1:22:40.400
<v Speaker 1>to be way. You're married.