1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,799 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 4 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,159 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,479 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You 8 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: can also listen to our radio show at two pm 9 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, the earliest studies in 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: amicron are giving cause for cautious optimism. We've certainly seen 12 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: that play out in the financial market trade, the equity 13 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 1: trade in particular. Well, vaccines may be less powerful against 14 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: the new variant. Protection can be fortified with boosters, and 15 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: that's certainly something we're hearing from the company's fist in BioNTech, 16 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: saying initial lab studies showed a third dose of their 17 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen vaccine neutralizes amicron, results that will accelerate global 18 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: booster drives in the U S. I've certainly seen it 19 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 1: as you try to sign up that it's now you've 20 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: got to wait a couple of weeks to get that boostered. 21 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:02,639 Speaker 1: It's it's really step a lot of momentum. I've heard 22 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,399 Speaker 1: that from colleagues. I got mine on Monday. Um, but 23 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: I know, talk about a catalyst to get you know, 24 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: thoughts over to shots. People are noticing it in a 25 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: big way. Well back with us to talk about the 26 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: latest day's headlines when it comes to the pandemic. Dr 27 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: Anthony Harris work Care's Chief Innovation Officer and associated or 28 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: an associate medical director of the onside clinical operations for 29 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: the company. Work here. If you're not familiar, there are 30 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: a physician directed occupational health services company. Dr Harris also 31 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 1: leads the company's COVID nineteam clinical response team. He is 32 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: back with us UH from Chicago where they're based. Dr Harris, 33 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: nice to have you back with Tim and myself. How 34 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: are you How are things in Chicago when it comes 35 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: to the pandemic. Well, thank you Carol, thank you Tim 36 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: for having me back. And things are Things are okay. 37 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: When I say okay, you know people aren't running around 38 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: with their hair on fire here. Um, but certainly we're 39 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: seeing the effects of this amicron scare, you know, recently, 40 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: and so we're seeing more masks compliance potentially, and certainly 41 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: we're talking about going to shows and whatnot. We're seeing 42 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 1: more requirements that you have to be vaccinated to get in. 43 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: How much does that actually help people? Like, what is 44 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: the thing that actually prompts people to get shots the 45 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: people who are sitting on the sidelines right now? Is 46 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 1: it something like what Carol was talking about with people 47 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: going to get boosters because the amicron? What's me at 48 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: somebody get the first shot? Sure? Yeah, yeah. We saw 49 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: early on right the early movers, kind of the third 50 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: of the population roughly that had been fully vaccinated go 51 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: ahead and sign up to get their boosters. And if 52 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 1: you look at the statistics now in the US we're 53 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 1: looking at I'm just thirty percent though as of two 54 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: weeks ago received their booth boosters, and we saw an 55 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: acceleration of that just last week with the scare of armoricrons. 56 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: I mean, we had one of the highest boostered days 57 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: on record. I believe it was two point seven million 58 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: boosters administered in one twenty four hour periods, which again 59 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: points back towards what motivates people to get boosters. Certainly 60 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: fear is one of them, right, It's like a logically Unfortunately, 61 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 1: we know fear only last roughly about two weeks as 62 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: a motivating factor. So um, the other factors, I believe 63 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: to a minor extent are gaining access to different venues. 64 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,119 Speaker 1: So we'll see how it continues to play out. I 65 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: think mandates, right, we've seen put in place, uh increase 66 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: booster participation, but I think we've already kind of topped 67 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: out the effectiveness of that approach at this point. Okay, 68 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: I am curious since the pandemic has started, and I 69 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 1: think we're about you know, twenty months or so in 70 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: since the pandemic took hold in the US, depending on 71 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: how you count it, but roughly, so, how is your 72 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: thinking and strategy evolved in terms of managing pandemic up 73 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: and managing the pandemic? Dr Harris? Sure it really is, 74 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: you know, going with classic um public health approaches right 75 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: and by far in the way, the biggest approach is education, right, 76 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: and educating the public in today's time dreft stically different 77 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: than educating the public back in smallpox time. Right, Um, 78 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: where And I'm just speaking anecdotally as a physician. Uh 79 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: here in the US. You know, when when I started 80 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: my career a decade ago, um, you know, I would 81 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: approach my patients and begin to educate, and I would 82 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: have some good dialogue around what the best approaches. But 83 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: certainly today it's more of hey, doc, here's what I've 84 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 1: researched on my own, guide me towards and navigate me 85 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: towards the data so that I can make my best 86 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: informed decision, whereas days of antiquity was more so Hey doc, 87 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: you're the expert. I'm gonna do what you recommend. So 88 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,679 Speaker 1: I think that dynamically see playing out from a public 89 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: health education standpoint, not a bad thing, right. We want 90 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: people to be accountable for their own health and wellness. Um. 91 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: But with today's information and the prevalence of misinformation, it 92 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: is perhaps becoming more difficult to do. Hey, Dr Harris, 93 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 1: help us understand what expectations should be as far as 94 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: booster shots go. Uh, as we do, you know, get 95 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: to the other side. I use the term get to 96 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: the other side of this pandemic. But it just seems 97 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: like every few months there's a new variant that's not 98 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: getting us to the other side. So wondering is there 99 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: is it realistic for us to think that we're gonna 100 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: have to get a booster every six months or so? Unfortunately, Uh, 101 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: the estimate is yes, right, we see wane of the 102 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: booster after about six months even now, right, I know 103 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: anecdotally again position partners of mine that are planning to 104 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: get their fourth shop. Right, so they've been fully vacid 105 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 1: to receive a booster, and they're already planning to get 106 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 1: their next booster come early next year to keep their 107 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: immunity level high. And the science behind that is straightforward. 108 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: You have a building of immune UH, antibodies and immune cells. 109 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: These are called plasma cells that remember what the virus is, 110 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: what it looks like, right Uh, And those we know 111 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: diminish over time both antibodies and B sales B cells 112 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: to a lesser extent um. But when we're talking about 113 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 1: new variants, even if you have a decent level of 114 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 1: antibodies against one type of virus, doesn't necessarily mean it's 115 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: going to bind well to the new virus. I e. 116 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 1: Amicron that has thirty mutations over thirty mutations in the 117 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: binding site for our antibody. So the the basic sciences. 118 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: The more antibodies you have in your system, the better 119 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: off you are are going to be in terms of 120 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: varying against historic variants as well as new variants. Unfortunately, 121 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: we know clearly antibody levels diminished over time. Dr Harris, 122 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: twenty seconds left. How are you advising your team in 123 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: terms of maybe where we will be in a year's time? 124 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: Just quickly, please, I always say, plain and simple, you know, 125 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: follow the finances and the pharmacy. We are very estimating 126 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: to ramp up their production, both Feiser and mcdania murth 127 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: uh in all through tween twenty two. So in a 128 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: year's time we're gonna still be in listica phones. All right, 129 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: good to know, I guess. Dr Anthony Harris, chief Innovation 130 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: Officer at work Care, on the phone from Chicago. You're 131 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business 132 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: Week with Carol mat Sir and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 133 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. It's Bloomberg Big Take. It's among 134 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: our most read on the Bloomberg Today. It's all spelled 135 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 1: out in the upcoming new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. 136 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: Got tomorrow on newsstands at business Week Dot comment on 137 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg the story one of the great rethings. I 138 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: think it's safe to say of this time, the great resignation. 139 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: Why are workers saying but by two jobs? Tens of 140 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: millions of people around the number alone just kind of 141 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: blue with their jobs. Twenty four million between April and 142 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: September this year. That's the US. That's US. That's crazy. 143 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: That is an absolutely wild number. Hey, let's talk about 144 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: this with Joel Webber, editor at Bloomberg business Week. He's 145 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,239 Speaker 1: with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Also joining 146 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: us is the economics editor of Bloomberg Business Week, Christina 147 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: Lynn Blad. Hey, Joel, Um, we're talking about this. We 148 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 1: talked about this a lot from the U. S. Perspective, 149 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: But what is so great about this story as it 150 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: brings together a really really global perspective by talking about 151 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: what's happening in the U S. And China and even 152 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: other places as well. Yeah, So, I think the Great 153 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: Resignation here in the US. We can throw around that 154 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: twenty four million number if we want. It's been a thing. 155 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: But what's interesting about this is that there's like other 156 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: forces and other things that aren't called the great resignation 157 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: in the life flat being really uh, the embodiment of this. 158 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: So it has created this sort of global thing that's 159 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: happening of people basically just opting out of work. And 160 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: for those for those of us who haven't done that, 161 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 1: it's like a great mystery about like what what're you 162 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:33,439 Speaker 1: doing here? And like how are you? Um? But yet 163 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: there are massive implications for this, not only from um economics, 164 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: but um also just like what a labor force starts 165 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: to look like when you lose this many workers. But Christina, 166 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: what's what's behind it all? What's happening? And what is 167 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: if you haven't heard of life flat yet, what where 168 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: did it all come from? Life Flat in China came 169 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 1: from a social media post in which um, this young 170 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: guy I admitted that it was almost kind of embarrassed 171 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: the beginning. It's like I haven't worked for a couple 172 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: of years. He used to be a factory worker and 173 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 1: and basically he said, this is like a philosophical choice 174 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 1: that I'm making. Um, and uh, it became it went 175 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: viral and uh and and to to just get a 176 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: feeling for how big it was, she Shaane Ping and 177 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: other members of China's leadership responded to that language directly 178 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: saying you should not lie flat. And you know, I 179 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: think the thread that runs through all these countries is 180 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: that people are responding to the feeling that they're working 181 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: really hard, but they don't feel like they're getting ahead. 182 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 1: And one of the reasons is if they're living in 183 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 1: big cities, all these other prices are going up faster 184 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 1: than their than their wages, their salaries, right, so they 185 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: feel like their incomes are actually stagnant. And I think 186 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: I thought that was a really interesting thing that made 187 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: it different from behind, you know, other sort of burnout 188 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,559 Speaker 1: moments that like we've captured in culture. I do think 189 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 1: about what you all said to like the great implications. 190 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: We were just talking about, um a Goldman Sack story 191 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: that's saying young U S workers are plotting early retirements, 192 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 1: and I'm like, well, how the heck are they going 193 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: to do it? Because probably a lot of folks are 194 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: not like my dad who got pensions, right, and so 195 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 1: those were young people in that survey. I now tend 196 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 1: to think that we need personal finance courses in school miscalculation. 197 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: I think about the economic implications, like so if people 198 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: are not going back to work, they're not having babies. Like, 199 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: how like, what does this mean globally? Well, and we 200 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: have there are some case studies out there, like Japan 201 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: comes up in the story because there's a statory generation, 202 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: right Christina, Like, there's other places that we can kind 203 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,959 Speaker 1: of look to how this has played out before happening. Well, 204 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: I mean it definitely in Japan. It's almost like the 205 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: statory generation emerged after the country was already in decline. 206 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: It was almost a response to this the the economic 207 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: things that have already happened. I mean in China, what there, 208 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 1: what leadership is concerned is that if enough people sort 209 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: of change their thinking that way, because you know, in 210 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: order to live that way, you really have to pare 211 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: down your lifestyle, which can be found this one guy 212 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: it's like four shirts for shirts, eight long sleeve. I 213 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 1: was like, oh man, that's like four four T shirts. Yeah. 214 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: I was like post working from home, you know, that's 215 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 1: exactly sweatpants money. But right, no, it I mean, if 216 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: if it really took off worldwide, it would definitely have 217 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: economic implications, you know, or as President gian to something 218 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: in terms of this whole idea, we all talk about 219 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: this wealth gap and if workers get to feel like 220 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: they're making more money, able to live in cities more easily, 221 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: get to share in the wealth, could that put an 222 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: end to some of this or is it more than that? Well, 223 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: I mean I think that it could. You know, the 224 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: pandemic lies on top of all of this is sort 225 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 1: of this extra kind of anxiety that people are feeling. 226 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: I think that maybe like what China is doing or 227 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: what employers on their own can do, can sap some 228 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: of the energy from this these movements by addressing these concerns. 229 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: But one of the issues though, is that um, young 230 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 1: people haven't truly verbalized their demands about what they want, 231 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 1: you know, from from It's not like they're saying to 232 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: their bosses, do this for me and I will stay, 233 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: you know. They're just kind of like saying no, I can't. Yeah. 234 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I have so much to This 235 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: brought up so much plus the Goldman Sack story that 236 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: we saw earlier today, and it just had me thinking 237 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: about where we are as a society globally and how 238 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: much this has to do with the pandemic versus how 239 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: much it has to do with the idea that you know, 240 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: maybe for the last thirty or forty years in China 241 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: and the idea of worked and they don't need that 242 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 1: anymore because China has grown so quickly, and you know, 243 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 1: the rise of leisure here in the United States. It's 244 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: really some product of the twentieth century and the idea 245 00:12:58,360 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: of the five day work week, like the idea of 246 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 1: pulling back or we at that point in history where 247 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 1: productivity is has gotten to a place where we can 248 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: we can step back a little bit. Well, and another 249 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: thing we haven't talked about here is just the role 250 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: of techness of being able to maybe have a gig 251 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: job where you just work a little bit when you 252 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: want to. And you know, there's a quote in the 253 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: story of like I play three days and then I 254 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: work one day, you know, and and that idea, you know, 255 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 1: we just in the hit when you think about how 256 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: the week is structured, you work five days, you take 257 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: two days off. That was also that we could basically 258 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 1: like make factories work suddenly when you throw in variables, 259 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: like we're beginning to see and compensate people differently, incentivize 260 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: them differently. Maybe that looks like a radically new world, 261 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: and that's sort of what this starts to glimp what 262 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: this starts to glimpse? Right, And I think about some 263 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 1: of the like I just remember doing a story and 264 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: Pixar like years ago, and they just if people wanted 265 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 1: to work in the morning, they wanted to work a lot, 266 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 1: like a full day, and they maybe take some time off. 267 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: Nobody cared as long as things got done. And I 268 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: do wonder are we are we getting closer that we 269 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: just got about thirty sex. I think that um for 270 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: creative types, especially this kind of flexible arrangements, you know 271 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,199 Speaker 1: may work, but you know, like you're staying business week 272 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: to bed with that work. We're on the clock right now, 273 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: no lying flat of business. It's a big story. We 274 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: have David Rubinstein coming up of the Carlisle Group, and 275 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: it's something we want to talk about with him and 276 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 1: how he's how he's thinking about that as well. I 277 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: want to know too. Yeah, right, did he get it? 278 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: I don't know, is he is? He? Like no, he's 279 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: working all the time. Incredible story, incredible reporting. Christina Linblad, 280 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much, Economics editor, Bloomberg business Week. It's 281 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: in the upcoming issue of the magazine. Chill Weber editor 282 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week. Um, no lying flat for us, 283 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: not yet. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to 284 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. 285 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: Tim Stinovik on Bloomber Radio. So in his latest episode 286 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: of the upcoming Peer to Peer Conversations on Bloomberg the 287 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: Carlisle Group co founder and co chairman David Rubinstein catching 288 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: up the presidency of Hilton Worldwide, Christmas said, a David, 289 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: of course, the author of a series How to Lead 290 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: on Leadership, The American Story, those conversations he's had with 291 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: so many of his storians, and his third in that 292 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: series about the arc of the U. S as a 293 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: young country as it invented and really reinvented itself. That book, 294 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: The American Experiment, Dialogues on a Dream. David Rubinstein back 295 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: with us on the phone in New York City. David, 296 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: how are you all right? How are you doing okay? 297 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: Doing okay? Um? Christmas Satti loved talking with him. You 298 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: had a really deep dive of a conversation with him. Um, 299 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: what stands out from you in that conversation and how 300 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: the hotel industry Hilton specifically is doing. The hotel industry 301 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: suffered probably as much as any industry, perhaps with the 302 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: sole exception of the cruise industry, which pretty much shut 303 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: down completely. The hotel industry dramatically UH saw occupancy go down. However, 304 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 1: occupy and see is now coming back mostly from travel 305 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: and leisure, not as much from business, though business is 306 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: coming back a bit. They stocks though of the travel 307 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 1: lodging companies are done quite well. I mean right now 308 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: Hilton is an all time high. I think Marriott US 309 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 1: near an all time high as well. So the market 310 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: is anticipating future growth and the real challenge that they 311 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: the hotel companies have, in Christens said, I talked about 312 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: this is where do you get employees? UM, A lot 313 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 1: of employees went away and now they got to hire 314 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: them back and probably higher wages, and as a result, 315 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: you're probably going to have some increases in in UH 316 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: in the cost of rooms. In addition, should you provide 317 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: all the services that you were providing before? People are 318 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: used to having daily towel service and daily makeup service 319 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: and their beds. Do you have to do that? Do 320 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: you have to get free breakfasts every morning to some 321 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: of your patrons to some of these things are going 322 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: to be looked at by companies like Hilton and others. 323 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: So what do you think, David about the potential permanent 324 00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: shifts that we see on the other side of the 325 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 1: pandemic when we when we do get to the other 326 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: side of the pandemic when it comes to travel, leisure, 327 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:06,959 Speaker 1: in hospitality. Well, I know from the business community, from 328 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: my point of view, if I had to fly across 329 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: the country for one hour meeting, I used to do it. 330 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: Now I'm happy to do a Zoom, So I'm not 331 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: traveling quite as much as I used to. I suspect 332 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: it will come back at some point. But in the 333 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: in the know, pre pandemic, I would go to the 334 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: Middle East or go to the Far East UH for 335 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: a day or two and now come back. And now 336 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 1: I just I'm a little more reluctant do because you 337 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: can do so many things on on zoom. Obviously you 338 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: can't do everything on zoom, and you have to have 339 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 1: personal contact at some point. But I do think that 340 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: business and business travel will will slower, be much more 341 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 1: slow to come back, much slower to come back. Hey, David, 342 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: did Christ say anything about well, you know, because we 343 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 1: talk a lot more about more automation coming in robotics. 344 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: There's a lot more things we can do online with 345 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: a hotel industry that we couldn't before. Does he say 346 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 1: that they're making investments or helping you know, at some 347 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,120 Speaker 1: of their team members by really introducing automation that maybe 348 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 1: sticks with us going forward, Well, sure they are doing 349 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: that right now. For example, rarely do people uh you know, 350 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 1: need to check in anymore. You can just get your 351 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: ticket online more or less work. Now they're going to 352 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: use face identification to some extent to check in. So 353 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 1: I think technology is going to dramatically change the industry. 354 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 1: And and clearly the industry, uh you know, is a 355 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: global industry. I mean, Hilton is all over the world 356 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 1: and they have thousands of hotels and and they have 357 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: in different categories. That's a big change in the last 358 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: twenty or thirty years. Used to be there was Hilton, 359 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: there was Marriott. Now Hilton has about fifteen different brands. 360 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 1: Mary has probably something similar. So you can have something 361 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 1: for every different price point that you want. Hey, one 362 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 1: thing we were dying to ask you, David Rubinstein, and 363 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: it has to do the couple of stories that are 364 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: among the most red on the Bloomberg. One has to 365 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: do with Goldman talking about young U S workers are 366 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 1: plotting early retirements. They're, you know, thinking about getting out 367 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 1: a lot earlier. And then we've got another one on 368 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Big Tickets about the great resignation, about how 369 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: we've had more than twenty four million from Aple to 370 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 1: September here in the US alone witting their jobs. We're 371 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: seeing it. There was a global phenomenon, and in some 372 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: countries we've already seen it happening, even pre pandemic. What's 373 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 1: going on? Why is everybody quitting? Why are younger folks 374 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 1: saying I've had it? Are we missing something? What do 375 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: you make of this trend? Well, my generation basically you 376 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 1: after college or graduate school, you went to work, and 377 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: you worked until you're sixty or seventy, and maybe some 378 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: cases even longer than that. Younger people are saying, well, 379 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: I can work out of my home a bit, Why 380 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 1: do I need to work in the traditional way? And secondly, 381 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 1: maybe I don't need to work quite as long. I 382 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: can make a fair amount of money if I do 383 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 1: well and retire at fifty five or sixty or even fifty. 384 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: So the world is changing. The world always changes. I'm 385 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: not surprised the pandemic has really changed the way people 386 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: look at the world. I know my own generation has 387 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: looked at the world much differently because we're worried more 388 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 1: about getting the COVID and getting UM to the point 389 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: where we can survive this because of the age group, 390 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: and more and more people who are older than me, 391 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 1: even uh there are in my early seventies are saying 392 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,199 Speaker 1: they don't want to work anymore either because they just 393 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: want to retire and and recognize that life might be 394 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: easier if they just retired. Are there concerns though about productivity? 395 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: If we see this, well, productivity it generally increases because 396 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: of technology. So technology tends to make productivity get much better, 397 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 1: some countries better than others. Yeah, product productivity is always 398 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: a challenge, but as a general rule of thumb, productivity 399 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 1: does increase even when you have fewer employees. Well, what 400 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: about them an economic or market rethink? David, Like I do, 401 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: wonder if you're tiring early or maybe you're saying, you 402 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: know what, I don't need so much in my wardrobe, 403 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: even if you've done well, like you just pair back? Um, 404 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: are there implications that we need to be thinking about. Well, sure, 405 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 1: I mean, people probably don't need to buy I used 406 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:43,959 Speaker 1: to buy a lot of business suits, probably don't need 407 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: as many of them. I don't used to buy a 408 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 1: lot of ties. Probably don't need a lot of them. Um, 409 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: and people probably are going to just change their life 410 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: a bit. You know. It's interesting that the Industrial revolution 411 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: changed the way we live or work over about a 412 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: hundred year period of time. The Internet maybe over twenty 413 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 1: five year period of time, the smartphone or for seven 414 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 1: years or so, and now over just one and a 415 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,880 Speaker 1: half years, we're changing the way we live and work 416 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: because of a pandemic that was never anticipated. And whether 417 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: that's a good thing or not, it's clearly here and 418 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: it's a reality. And people are much different in the 419 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 1: way they look at work. They don't view it as 420 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: an obligation so much. If they don't enjoy it, they're 421 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: not going to do it. I wonder if technological innovation, though, 422 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 1: has kept up with the worker attitudes. We're not we're 423 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: not seeing uh, we're having a hard time in the 424 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 1: United States finding long haul truckers, but we're not seeing 425 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: self driving trucks at this point on roads Um, not yet. 426 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: Not yet. It's a challenge for Amazon to keep employees 427 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: incredibly high turnover, but you know they're not being replaced 428 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,640 Speaker 1: by robots at this point. So isn't there some concern 429 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: we're trepidation about the idea that that productivity hasn't in 430 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: technology hasn't caught up to worker attitudes. Well, workers are 431 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 1: higher ambitions of what they want to do, and then 432 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: the kind of jobs you might get by working in 433 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: a warehouse and and fulfilling orders for Amazon may not 434 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: be as intellectually challenging. Is what some people really wanted 435 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: to do when they went to college or or some 436 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 1: kind of vocational training. Uh. Clearly things are going to 437 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: have to adjust, But in the end, I think the 438 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 1: American workforces is pretty resilient. I think we'll come back. 439 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,439 Speaker 1: We can't compete with the workforce in terms of costs 440 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 1: in China or Asia, but we can, uh, I think 441 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: do a pretty good job in making productivity better than 442 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,679 Speaker 1: it has been. Clearly, technological leaders UH usually come from 443 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 1: the United States. Hey, David, you know your series of books, 444 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: your trilogy you know on leadership historians really looking at uh, 445 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 1: the growth of this nation and how it's evolved and 446 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 1: really talking with leaders as we constantly, as you say, 447 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: these invention innovative cycles seem to be happening in less 448 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,679 Speaker 1: time here. Um, how do you see, you know, in 449 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: terms of the next trends or the people that you 450 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: think we really have got to keep an eye on 451 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 1: that that really are going to be determining maybe the 452 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: future trajectory. And it can be politically as well as 453 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: on a business and market front. Well, in the business world, 454 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: chain is usually made, as it is in the political world, 455 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 1: by people who are younger. Revolutions are not usually led 456 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: by seven to year old people, and as a general 457 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 1: rule of thumb, business change is usually led by demand 458 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 1: from people who in their twenties or thirties. So how 459 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 1: many people have now caught on with the kind of 460 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 1: social media devices that really the young people really focused 461 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 1: on and really helped generate. Same with computers, and the 462 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 1: same with other kinds of services that we now rely on. 463 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: Many of these came from younger people. So I think 464 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 1: it's a very good thing if boards of directors and 465 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 1: companies would get younger people on them. I think it's 466 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: a good idea for boards of trustees as well. Nonprofits 467 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: have more and more people on them who are younger. 468 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: I rarely see on the words that I serve people 469 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 1: under the age of forty. But really that's where the 470 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: change is coming from. And probably it's not a bad 471 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: idea to have younger people on these boards or in 472 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 1: senior positions, advising boards of directors or trustees. So why 473 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: do they resist? What happens? Like if you bring that 474 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 1: up and you're on a board and you say, hey, guys, 475 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: I love you all, but we need to ascue younger. 476 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 1: We've certainly see the implication since the benefits of having 477 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 1: diversity on boards. But but what's the response. Well, sometimes 478 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: people are always willing to nod and say yes, let's 479 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: take that up, or we should think about it, and 480 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: then if you're not persistent, you won't get very far. 481 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: So persistence is a real hallmark of leadership, as I've 482 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: said in my book. So you've got to be persistent, 483 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: and I probably should be more persistent in pushing the 484 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: idea of having younger people advise boards of directors and 485 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: boards of trustees or being more senior positions, because the 486 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: consumers in the world, the people are changing things, are 487 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: really younger people. Hey, David let's talk markets here, because 488 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: you've seen lots of market cycles throughout your career, help 489 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: us understand and put into context the one that we're 490 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,679 Speaker 1: seeing right now with the s and just continuing to 491 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 1: to grind higher, and you know, the COVID variants still 492 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: making their way around the world, and concerns about growth. 493 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: If the markets have got anything wrong. Initially when COVID 494 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 1: came about, it was that the markets we're going to 495 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: be more resilient than they turned out than the then, 496 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,959 Speaker 1: than than people thought. In other words, when we went 497 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: through COVID, people thought, Okay, the economy is going to collapse, 498 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, the market will collapse. But 499 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 1: if it turns out maybe because of federal intervention for sure, 500 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: but because of federal support and other factors, the stock 501 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: market actually has gone up. And in the private equity 502 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: world that I operate in, markets have never been better. 503 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 1: People are making staggering sums of money compared to what 504 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: they did before. So it's very difficult to predict right now. 505 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: I would say that the federal government is probably going 506 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: to increase interest rates next year. That should have a 507 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 1: somewhat impact on the market of probably reducing prices a bit, 508 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: and I suspect inflation won't go away, so that might 509 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 1: impede the market a bit. But I don't see any 510 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: collapse in the near term. I don't see any kind 511 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: of UH correction of any consequence. Who might have a 512 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,719 Speaker 1: one day to day blip because of something that happens, 513 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: but a ten or fifteen percent market correction, I don't 514 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 1: see that for an enduring period of time in the 515 00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,680 Speaker 1: next year or so. David, what is the productive conversation? 516 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,479 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I here at Bloomberg we talk 517 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 1: a lot about the FED, We talk about inflation. You 518 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 1: guys were just touching on it. But I mean, what 519 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 1: is the productive conversation to have about that right now? 520 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: I think people should recognize that inflation um was artificially low. Historically, 521 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: throughout most of the twentieth century, inflation was three or 522 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 1: four percent, but for the last twenty years or so, 523 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: it was the two percent or less that was abnormally low. Uh. 524 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: For a number of reasons, inflation got to the double 525 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 1: digit arrange when I was in the White House in 526 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: the President Carter. We're not likely to see that again. 527 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: For a number of reasons that our economy is much 528 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: more global than it used to be. We don't have 529 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: a percentage of the of the workforce being unionized as before. 530 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 1: And and the Federal Reserve is I think more sensitive 531 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: to interest rates increases than they might have been many 532 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: years ago. So I don't really think we're going to 533 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 1: have that problem again in terms of high inflation. But 534 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: I do think we'll have inflation probably above two percent 535 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 1: and maybe for a while, maybe somewhere between three and 536 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 1: three and a half percent. That might happen for the 537 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: year or so, But it's not a calamity. Yeah, No, 538 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: that's a good thing to kind of remind everybody on that. 539 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: He last question, David I mentioned to three books How 540 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 1: to Lead the American Story, The American Experiment, American Experiments, 541 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: some just great conversations about our country and as it 542 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: changed and evolved. Uh, if you look for infspiration, is 543 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 1: there one particular interview that you might suggest to our 544 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,399 Speaker 1: audience at this point? Well, disappointing one to me was 545 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: the interview with Ken Burns. I lived through the Vietnam War, 546 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 1: not as a combatant, but as a as a civilian, 547 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 1: as a student, and and and he said that actually 548 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 1: it's clear from the documentary evidence that the presidents of 549 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 1: the United States who lived for the Vietnam War knew 550 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: we could never win that war militarily. They knew it. 551 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: It was just a question of the politics of it. 552 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: They didn't want to admit that they were going to 553 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 1: withdraw and be seen as a loser. So we fought 554 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 1: a war when shifty eight thousand Americans died and hundreds 555 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 1: of thousands of Vietnamese died, really for a political reason 556 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 1: and not for a military reason. All right, we're gonna 557 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 1: leave it on that note, David, Thank you so much. 558 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 1: As always, David Rubinstein, Happy holidays, b Well b Safe, 559 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: founder and co executive chairman of the Carlisle Group and 560 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: host of The David Rubinstein Show, Peer to peer Conversations. 561 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: As mentioned his latest book out, The American Experiment, Dialogues 562 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,159 Speaker 1: and a Dream. It's a great holiday gift. I'm just 563 00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 1: gonna put it out there. It is. It's just a 564 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 1: great versations. Yeah. Features conversation with Metel and Albright ken Burns. 565 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 1: He mentioned John Mitcham, Walter Isaacson. Uh, the list goes on. 566 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 1: I'm roam, Yeah, I bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, 567 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: this is not a toy. All right, please, I'll go. 568 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 1: I want to drive. It's a good question. This is 569 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 1: the drive to the closed on Bluebird Radio. All right, 570 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: just about ten minutes to the closing bell on Wall 571 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,479 Speaker 1: Street on this Wednesday. And you know what we've been 572 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 1: talking about. It does feel like we're taking a little 573 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 1: bit of a breather here, but a little bit of 574 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: an uptick here in the last few minutes. So we 575 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: are now green on the screen when it comes to 576 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 1: the SMP down and the NASDAC, but just a little 577 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: bit higher on the SMP five hundreds to call it 578 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: a fractional game there as well. Let's get to it 579 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: with Lisa Erickson. She senior vice president co had at 580 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 1: Public Markets Group at US Bank. Lisa, thanks so much 581 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: for joining us on the phone from Minneapolis, Minnesota. How 582 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: do you make sense of the volatility that we've seen 583 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: over the last week, really since sun i'd say Black Friday, 584 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: UM and the trading day that we saw there the 585 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: first one the markets had a chance to digest the 586 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 1: news about Omicron and really the rip higher that we've 587 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 1: seen since then, the recovery. Yeah, well, first of all, 588 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: him and Carol, thanks so much for having me. But 589 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: to your point, it really has been very volatile over 590 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 1: the last week or so, and I think what you 591 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: see is that we've had really a very good fundamental 592 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 1: picture with an uptick strongly across all of our major 593 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 1: US equity indices. And so when you get some new 594 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 1: news like what has happened with the development of the 595 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: Omnikron variant, um markets really have to price into that uncertainty, 596 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 1: and then as additional news flow comes, there is going 597 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 1: to be a positive rally as people perceive that risk softening. 598 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 1: You know, from our vantage point, it really remains to 599 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 1: be seen where this settles out. You know, it's probably 600 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 1: going to take another week or two really to get 601 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 1: more sense fully of the severity and the transmissibility of 602 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 1: this variant. But in the meantime, it is somewhat encouraging 603 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 1: that we've gotten some you know, early news of perhaps 604 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 1: a milder variant than was initially expected. All right, so 605 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,880 Speaker 1: help me at Justina Lee Bloomberg wrote this out in 606 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 1: our Five Things to Watch earlier this morning, and she said, 607 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 1: just last week everyone was worried, um Lisa about the 608 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: impact of faster FED tightening on risky assets with high valuations. 609 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: That make them more susceptible to rising rates. Now, concerns 610 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 1: over the variant being a dragon the economic recovery have faded, 611 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: but it's less clear whether the FED story has changed. 612 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 1: So it's interesting that we've eased concerns about Amkron. But 613 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 1: are we comfortable then if the FED, you know, ends 614 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 1: up moving faster than we all anticipated, because that was 615 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: our big worry last week. Absolutely, Carol, that's a great point, 616 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: and FED really is another big near term as well 617 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: is longer term in blunt on what's going on with 618 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 1: the markets, And to your point, really some of the 619 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: concerns were magnified initially by the fact that chair Pal 620 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: really mentioned the possibility of a faster tapering. Um, we 621 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: do think that's really a key development going forward. I 622 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 1: think the market expectation in our base cases that that 623 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: will happen next week when the FED meats. But certainly 624 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 1: a lot of the language around that announcement is going 625 00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 1: to be key and seeing whether some of the balance 626 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 1: of risk are both to the upside and downside on 627 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,880 Speaker 1: inflation are mentioned, or if it really is more of 628 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 1: a hawkish tone repeat that, what do you think is 629 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 1: going to happen next week. What are you looking for? Well, 630 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 1: our base case again is that the Fed is incented 631 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: and has spoken to really continuing to move forward the 632 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 1: tapering pace, possibly to thirty billion a month from fifteen 633 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: billion a month. But again, I think the devil's really 634 00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,719 Speaker 1: going to be in the details and are main concern 635 00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: right now is again a more hawkish tone around that pronouncement, 636 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 1: really just focusing on the upside risk UH to inflation 637 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 1: and what that means is the possibility of too hot 638 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 1: monetary policy, especially when we look into next year and 639 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: we see that the comparisons for inflation are going to 640 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 1: get tougher, so they could actually be pivoting into an 641 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 1: upswing just right when some of those numbers come down 642 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 1: exactly and you know, we've definitely seen that with a 643 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: flattening of the yield curve, you know, or some of 644 00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 1: the conversations we've had over the last week about you know, 645 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 1: whether you know, treasury investors are warning us Lisa that hey, folks, 646 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 1: you know, as we get into the next year, we're 647 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 1: going to see maybe growth slow down, and there's some 648 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: concerns and could the Fed be making a misstep perhaps, 649 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 1: I hate to say, you know, could we head into 650 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: a recession. It's hard to even get your head around 651 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 1: that at this point, but you do wonder, especially since 652 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 1: FED policy takes a while to actually have its impact. 653 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 1: You know, the timing of all of this is just 654 00:32:56,920 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 1: so key. Absolutely to your point. Again, the the based 655 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 1: comparisons for growth next year are tough too, so you know, 656 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 1: just at the start growth is likely to come down 657 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 1: to some extent going into the next year. So the 658 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: FED really is in a tough position because we have 659 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 1: had some elevated inflation and it is not completely clear 660 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,360 Speaker 1: how long that will continue to laugh And yet on 661 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,880 Speaker 1: the other hand, we know there's a possibility that it 662 00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 1: could come down a little bit as well as you know, 663 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,360 Speaker 1: there's going to be some pressure on the growth number. 664 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 1: So they're in a tough spot. And that's why, really 665 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 1: what we're hoping for is that there's some more balanced 666 00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 1: language around you know, the possibility of faster tapering. But 667 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 1: again it remains to be seen how they come out 668 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 1: next week. Least. The narrative has been throughout the pandemic 669 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 1: from the FED, you know, maximizing making sure that they're 670 00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,800 Speaker 1: maximizing the ability for people to get back to work, 671 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 1: and I wonder what you think now is more of 672 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 1: a focus for FED share Powell is it? Is it 673 00:33:55,520 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 1: price stability or maximum employment. Well, as he set out 674 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 1: really earlier UM several months ago, in terms of what 675 00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:10,360 Speaker 1: it would take to begin the reduction of all of 676 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 1: the stimulus that's been in place, it really was around both. 677 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,359 Speaker 1: It was around price pressures as well as well as 678 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,880 Speaker 1: maximum employment. And so I think what you're seeing is 679 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 1: now both are more sharply coming into focus. On the 680 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 1: employment side, we have gotten some recent strong prince even 681 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 1: just today with some of the indicators on UM labor force. 682 00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 1: You know, again, I think those are strengthening the case 683 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:39,479 Speaker 1: that we're approaching that full employment picture. But again, since 684 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,680 Speaker 1: those are both key, we expect the FED to continue 685 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: to look at both of those as they move forward. Hey, Lisa, 686 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 1: so the SMP is this year you've got the nastack. 687 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 1: You still guys like large caps. That's where you you 688 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 1: say investors should focus, and that includes include large cap tech. 689 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,839 Speaker 1: It certainly does, and we're really seeing a balanced opportunity 690 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 1: among large cat stocks in terms of both interest in 691 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:10,440 Speaker 1: secular growth types of industries like technology as well as piplicals. 692 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: And really the reason behind that is we've got, despite 693 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,319 Speaker 1: some of the potential risks we're talking about right now, 694 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:20,400 Speaker 1: a pretty nice economy. If you look at the macro indicators, 695 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,280 Speaker 1: they're really primarily on solid footing, and so that gives 696 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 1: with the reopening activity, both the opportunity for some of 697 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,359 Speaker 1: those secular growth trends to continue as well as some 698 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 1: of the reopening companies to do well. So that's really 699 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: the focus on large cap. It really gives you a 700 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: nice balanced, diversified exposure across both types of sectors. All right, 701 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 1: good to get your thoughts, Lisa. Thank you so much. 702 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,520 Speaker 1: Lisa Ericson. She's senior vice president and co head of 703 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 1: the Public Markets Group over at US Bank, on the 704 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,879 Speaker 1: phone from Minneapolis. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. 705 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 1: Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, 706 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,279 Speaker 1: and you can also listen to our radio show at 707 00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,799 Speaker 1: two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 708 00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:04,840 Speaker 1: you you to search Bloomberg Global News m