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Speaker 1: Welcome in, guys to the Monday morning episode of the

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice Podcast the end of the college football season.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolt. You guys following me on

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Speaker 1: socials at sports Doc Matt. This podcast being brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Omaha Steaks dot com. Thirty dollars off at

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Speaker 1: If we've made you some money here during the college

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Speaker 1: football season, we're up nearly fourteen units. May be a

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Speaker 1: way of saying thank you, going buy some Omaha Steaks.

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Speaker 1: Promo Coo Juice. Minimum purchased may be required. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: two and three of yesterday both teasers hit. The Cardinals

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Speaker 1: over does not hit, the Patriots do not win, moneyline loses,

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Speaker 1: and the under in the Vegas game does not hit.

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Speaker 1: So two and three slip me down down. So but

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Speaker 1: if we do it right tonight, it won't matter at all.

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Speaker 1: We have a chance to get right. We finally, I

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Speaker 1: finally get to this point I have been giving you guys,

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Speaker 1: these hedge opportunities and these future wagers. By taking a

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Speaker 1: position and then trying to explain how we work off

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Speaker 1: that said position, I finally get to come to you today, today,

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Speaker 1: this morning and explain it.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: This is for you guys who took the bet, the

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Speaker 1: ten to one play on Michigan to win the National Championship.

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Speaker 1: They play Washington tonight. Okay, you might want to get

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Speaker 1: out a pen and paper because this is going to

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Speaker 1: get a little bit complicated. If you just want to

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Speaker 1: let it ride, let it ride, Okay. If you want

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Speaker 1: to take Michigan and you say, look, Matt, I have

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Speaker 1: a ten to one ticket, I don't need to hedge.

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Speaker 1: Hedging is for gardners. I'm not doing it. Go right ahead,

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Speaker 1: I'm not against it. Money came in today to push

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Speaker 1: the number to five, so people clearly like Michigan. But

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Speaker 1: the question is when it comes on the night before,

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Speaker 1: was that a headfake? Because we'll the big money come

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Speaker 1: in on Washington tomorrow. We see big numbers, big big

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Speaker 1: numbers come in, and we see this whole thing get

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Speaker 1: driven down and the closing numbers somewhere around three and

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Speaker 1: a half or three.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I took it overnight because I don't know if it's

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Speaker 1: gonna go any higher. I don't think it's gonna go

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Speaker 1: any higher. And for the maths sake, plus one eighty

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Speaker 1: on the money line works out just fine for what

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Speaker 1: we're trying to accomplish. So again, if you have a

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Speaker 1: ticket on this, and we're gonna use the number one hundred,

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Speaker 1: each of us have our own unit sizes. But for

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Speaker 1: the simple sake of math and for how I need

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Speaker 1: to explain this, we're gonna go with one hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: is one unit, all right. So let's say we put

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Speaker 1: one hundred dollars down ten to one for Michigan. So

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Speaker 1: it's to win one thousand dollars tonight, all right, that's

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Speaker 1: what we're playing with. If you want to let it ride,

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Speaker 1: go right ahead. But I'm gonna make two plays off it.

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Speaker 1: And yes, at the end, I will take out the

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Speaker 1: Alabama hedge. Okay, that does factor into our overall record

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Speaker 1: here with this, it does come in, So I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: use it. I'm gonna tell you about it. So don't say,

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Speaker 1: like Matt, you heads on Bama. So that number is

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Speaker 1: not right for this sake. For the maths sake, let's

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Speaker 1: put that two unit loss aside just for one second. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that two hundred dollars, let's just take it and put

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Speaker 1: it aside for a second. Let's talk about tonight the

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Speaker 1: numbers five money line plus one eighty two bets I

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Speaker 1: have made. Okay, again, this is using one hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: as one unit, but your unit can be different, larger, smaller,

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Speaker 1: whatever it might be.

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Speaker 2: I am taking.

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Speaker 1: Two point two units, and I'm taking Washington plus five

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Speaker 1: mis one ten. I got mis one oh five, so

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Speaker 1: really it's two point one units for me. So for

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Speaker 1: the math sake, let's use two point one, but two

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Speaker 1: point one two point two. Let's just round it off here,

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Speaker 1: make it easy. Let's just say two hundred dollars. Hey,

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Speaker 1: we're betting two hundred to win two hundred, just for mathsake,

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Speaker 1: and you're driving down the road.

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Speaker 2: Let's just make it simple. So it's to win two

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Speaker 2: hundred dollars.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take another two hundred dollars at plus one

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Speaker 1: eighty another two units, and I'm betting on Washington money line.

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Speaker 1: Let's say Washington wins the national championship. That would mean

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Speaker 1: Washington would cash three sixty on the money line for

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Speaker 1: US and two hundred for the plus five. That would

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Speaker 1: be five hundred and sixty dollars for a win.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we bet.

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Speaker 1: One hundred dollars on Michigan to win the national championship.

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Speaker 1: We would then take that out. That would be four

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty dollars. We then would go take out

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Speaker 1: the hedge for the Alabama and the profit is two

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty dollars or two point six units.

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Speaker 2: We will have one.

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Speaker 1: That's the worst case scenario if Washington wins the game outright,

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Speaker 1: but I have to protect for it because Washington can

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Speaker 1: win this game. There's no debating it. Washington can win

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Speaker 1: this game. They're undefeated. Michael Penix is really good. The

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Speaker 1: secondary for Michigan really hasn't seen the receiving corps or

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Speaker 1: the weaponry. I mean, Ohio State had weapons in Marvin

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Speaker 1: Harrison junior, but a crap quarterback. Michael Pennix is not

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Speaker 1: crap quarterback. Okay, Michigan's going to be tested in a

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Speaker 1: big way. So can Washington win the game tonight? Absolutely?

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Speaker 1: And if they do, I want to be profitable, all right.

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Speaker 1: The whole college football experiment doubling two point six the money.

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Speaker 2: I'm good with it, all right.

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Speaker 1: If I'm wrong and Michigan does not win the national

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Speaker 1: championship in Washington comes in, I've guaranteed myself profit, guaranteed

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Speaker 1: myself at least two point six units.

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Speaker 2: But let's play it out a little farther.

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Speaker 1: What happens if Michigan wins the game, Okay, Michigan wins

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Speaker 1: the game and covers, Well, what happens, Well, one, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna win the one thousand dollars, okay, So that's going

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Speaker 1: to come in one thousand dollars win. We hedged with

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars on plus five and two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: on money line, all right. That takes us down to

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Speaker 1: six hundred dollars. We then hedged on the two hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars for Alabama. That ends us with a four hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars profit. For a four unit profit for the college

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Speaker 1: football season. We've gone from one to four, okay, so

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Speaker 1: one to four. These are opportunities to come around once

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Speaker 1: in a while to guarantee ourselves a win, guaranteed ourselves profit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So that would be four to one. It would go

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Speaker 1: on the record as six to one. We've already taken

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Speaker 1: out the two units, so it would be a six

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Speaker 1: unit play. We would then end the college football season

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Speaker 1: up twenty units if Michigan wins in Michigan covers. But

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Speaker 1: what if we go onto the side of the sportsbook,

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Speaker 1: the sportsbooks the best case scenario for the it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a Michigan win and not cover. Why because

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Speaker 1: the public's gonna bet Washington. Washington's a public dog. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean it's gonna lose, but Washington's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: very popular plus one eighty money line bet tonight. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be tons of them people taking Washington saying, you

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Speaker 1: know what, everyone's doubting this team. They've doubted them all year.

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Speaker 1: They think it's a you know, a soft Pac twelve team,

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Speaker 1: but they have the best offensive line in college football.

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Speaker 1: I think it might be Michigan, but Michigan lost their

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Speaker 1: best office in Lineman. So I think now it's Washington.

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Speaker 1: And if Washington can keep Pennix clean, he's gonna pick

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Speaker 1: apartment pick apart Michigan. But Michigan can run the ball,

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Speaker 1: and a Michigan can run the ball and be effective

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Speaker 1: running the football, I think Michigan can win the game.

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Speaker 1: Let's say they win the game by three. Book's best

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Speaker 1: case scenario. Why not we make it for us that

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Speaker 1: that's also our best case scenario. Here's how we do that.

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Speaker 1: One Michigan wins. Okay, so we get the one thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars win right there, But we bet two hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: on Michigan, so on Washington money line, so we're giving

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Speaker 1: that back.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Now we're down to eight hundred dollars. But we covered.

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Speaker 1: We covered, so we won that two hundred dollars back.

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Speaker 1: We hedged on Alabama, right, so that takes that one

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars minus two. That's eight hundred dollars. There's the

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Speaker 1: eight to one return. That is our best case scenario.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: I know that's complicated. You may need to rewind this

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Speaker 1: and listening, but bottom line is, here are the bets.

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Speaker 1: Michigan ten to one for one unit. We're going two

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Speaker 1: units at plus five on Washington and two units on

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Speaker 1: Washington money line. All right, those are the two plays,

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Speaker 1: the two hedges I am making, protecting ourselves with a

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Speaker 1: plus one eighty and gambling trying to get a three

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Speaker 1: or four point win. For Michigan here, but in case

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Speaker 1: I am wrong, we're guaranteeing ourselves profit. Best case scenario

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Speaker 1: is Michigan to win by one, two, three, four, or five. Well, yeah, five,

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Speaker 1: A push would be good to Michigan winning by one, two, three,

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Speaker 1: four or five. Or the second best is Washington. Well no,

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Speaker 1: the second best is yeah no. The best case scenario

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Speaker 1: is Michigan to win the game and not covering. Second

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Speaker 1: best is Michigan to win the game and cover. Third

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Speaker 1: best is Washington to win the game. Outright, all right,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see, okay, if Washington covers, which could very

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Speaker 1: well happen with a number of five, four point win,

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Speaker 1: three point win, two point win, whatever it might be.

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Speaker 1: I like our position there, okay, So it's your kicking

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Speaker 1: your heels up and you're just gonna watch this game.

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Speaker 1: We finally got to this point where we can do

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Speaker 1: a pretty mathematical and calculated type.

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Speaker 2: Of hedge to guarantee profit.

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Speaker 1: Again, if you don't want to do any of this

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Speaker 1: and you have the Washington ticket, go right ahead, let

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Speaker 1: it fly, all right, let it ride, and maybe you

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Speaker 1: wind up with losing one hundred dollars or one unit loss,

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Speaker 1: or you win a thousand. That's gambling. I try on

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Speaker 1: risk adverse. If you've listened to this podcast long enough,

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Speaker 1: you know I don't like risk. If I can do

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Speaker 1: what the sports books do, the sports books are all

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Speaker 1: about minimizing risk. I'm not a true gambler. I've say

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Speaker 1: this before. Much rather guarantee myself profit. Know that I'm

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Speaker 1: going into the game where I'm going to make money

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Speaker 1: regardless of what happens. If Washington wins, or if Michigan wins,

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Speaker 1: Michigan wins and doesn't cover, or Michigan wins and covers.

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Speaker 1: I've covered all my bases. I am profitable in every

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Speaker 1: scenario that I just laid out. Do have one more

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Speaker 1: play for you though? The total is fifty six and

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Speaker 1: a half here in this game. If Washington's going to

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Speaker 1: be in the game, which I think they have a

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Speaker 1: shot to be in the game, this game is going

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Speaker 1: to go over. Why Well, you look at some of

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Speaker 1: the numbers. Look at what Washington does throwing the football.

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Speaker 1: This is gonna be an awesome test for both teams.

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Speaker 1: Washington's passing attack yards per pass play nine point four

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Speaker 1: is eighth best in the country. Passes per game thirty seven,

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Speaker 1: which is thirteenth best in the country. Three hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty yards passing per game is number one in the country.

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Speaker 1: Michigan five point eight yards pass per per offense per

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Speaker 1: for their defense per opponent, that's fifth best in the country.

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Speaker 1: They only allow twenty five pass plays. Will only you

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Speaker 1: only see twenty five pass plays per game or twenty

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Speaker 1: six that's eighth best, and one hundred and fifty yards

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Speaker 1: given up per game is second best in the country.

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Speaker 1: This is strength on strength. Here's the one big factor

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Speaker 1: for Michigan. I think they're going to be able to

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Speaker 1: throw the football and run the football on Washington. Washington's

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Speaker 1: defensive line is good, not great. Four point four yards

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Speaker 1: per rush given up four point three yards per rush

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Speaker 1: for Blake Korum. In Michigan, they average one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty nine point six yards per game on the ground.

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Speaker 1: Washington gives up one hundred and thirty seven. But that's

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Speaker 1: a pass happy pac twelve. The passing attack for Michigan

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Speaker 1: with JJ McCarthy nine yards per pass play is fourteenth

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Speaker 1: best in the country. They don't do it much. When

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Speaker 1: they do it, they do it for big plays. Two

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighteen point nine yards per per game passing

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Speaker 1: that's seventy first in the country. But Washington gives up

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Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty seven yards per game through the year.

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Speaker 1: That's one hundred and twenty first. I think Michigan is

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Speaker 1: going to score. That's going to force Washington to go

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Speaker 1: for big plays, and either we get a complete and

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Speaker 1: utter route route and the game goes over, or Washington's

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Speaker 1: in the game and the game goes over fifty six

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Speaker 1: and a half one unit. I'm playing the over over

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Speaker 1: Michigan in Washington over fifty six and a half in

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Speaker 1: the national championship game for one point one units. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so there we go with our national championship.

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Speaker 2: That is all I'm betting today.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna sit back and enjoy the last college football

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Speaker 1: game of the season. Best case scenario, Michigan wins, but

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Speaker 1: Michigan does not cover. That's what we're rooting for here tonight,

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Speaker 1: for the national championship. If that hits, that's a really

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Speaker 1: good start to the week. It basically zeros out everything

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Speaker 1: we've done so far in twenty twenty four, puts us right.

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Speaker 2: Back into where we will.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we'd be super, super profitable, we'd be way

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Speaker 1: into the black. If that happens for twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: we're early, but it makes everything much better if we

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Speaker 1: get a Michigan win without a cover.

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Speaker 2: Michigan winning and covering, we're still good.

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Speaker 1: We're still We're still profitable and making money if that happens,

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Speaker 1: but we've covered all our bases. I like where we

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Speaker 1: are heading into this. Go Michigan win, win by three.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt parolt I. Talk to you guys

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Speaker 1: in Thisscort Channel, Betting Pros dot com slash chat to

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Speaker 1: get in always free. This podcast, the Daily Juice every

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Speaker 1: single morning with being Matt perolt I was being brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Omaha Steaks dot com