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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second spot. Hello, Welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action of podcast at the UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Durula,

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Speaker 2: joined today by Billy Ward to help you break down

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Speaker 2: a twelve fight card for UFC Azerbaijan. We're here to

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Speaker 2: give you our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props, and mourning.

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Speaker 2: If you'd like to tell some of the bets that

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Speaker 2: we discuss on today's show, you can find the bets

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Speaker 2: click slip links in the podcast and video subscription, or

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Speaker 2: go to Action network dot com slash bet Now. UFC's

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Speaker 2: first time in iSER by Jean twelve fight card from

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Speaker 2: Baku starting early though twelve pm pri Lim, so make

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Speaker 2: sure to get those bets in on Friday night six

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Speaker 2: fight card. We'll start at three pm Eastern. The main

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Speaker 2: event a light heavyweight bout between Jamal Hill and Khalil Roundtree. Junior.

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Speaker 2: Hill was around plus one forty plus one thirty earlier.

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Speaker 2: The week line has come all the way down though,

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Speaker 2: making this a round to pick them fight. His minus

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Speaker 2: three sixty to end inside the distance, plus two fifty

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Speaker 2: to go to a decision. Billy, I went ahead and

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Speaker 2: told you to write up the main event this week,

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Speaker 2: so I'm gonna throw things over to you first to

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Speaker 2: give out the breakdown on the show. Hill is from

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Speaker 2: your area of the world. I feel like you usually

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Speaker 2: have pretty good reads on his fight. I'm not actually

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Speaker 2: Pottchell that you may have gotten every single one of

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Speaker 2: his UFC fights.

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Speaker 3: Correct.

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Speaker 2: I know you bet against him with Pehera, and I

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Speaker 2: think you've been on him virtually every other fight. You

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Speaker 2: were on him against Glover, So give me your read

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Speaker 2: on Hill against cluel Around True Junior, I know we're

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Speaker 2: on the same side of this matchup, but where would

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Speaker 2: you bet Hill up to and then in terms of

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Speaker 2: props or live betting angles, what are you targeting this fight?

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Speaker 1: Ironically, I don't remember the most recent one, but I

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Speaker 1: think I might have bet against YEARI or on in

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Speaker 1: this last one, breaking my Jamal Hill streak. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is I'm super glad we switched. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of interesting dynamics here. It's a lefty on lefty matchup.

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Speaker 1: We have Hill, who's more of a boxer against Khalil Rowntree,

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Speaker 1: who has more of a muay Thai style. The thing

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Speaker 1: that really stood out to me for Hill though, with

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Speaker 1: his boxing is that he tends to lunge and get

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Speaker 1: a little bit in front of his front foot when

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Speaker 1: he is reaching to fight taller.

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Speaker 3: And longer opponents.

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Speaker 1: Both of his USC losses that involve striking, we're against

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Speaker 1: Yeri Proasca and Alex Perjeda.

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Speaker 3: Both of those guys have the same or longer reach

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Speaker 3: than Hill.

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Speaker 1: I'm able to keep the distance Khalil Rowntree from a

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Speaker 1: frame and length standpoint a little bit undersized for two

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Speaker 1: zero five, I believe he's giving up three or four

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Speaker 1: inches in reach here and three and a half. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so Roundtree, what he likes to do is he'll dart

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Speaker 1: in from the distance, try to mix it up in

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Speaker 1: the clinch, and then dart back away. But that is

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Speaker 1: like the exact wrong thing to do against Jamal Hill,

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Speaker 1: who has a really good job and really good straight

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Speaker 1: left hand from that south past stands, I believe will

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Speaker 1: have a lot of opportunities to catch him coming in

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Speaker 1: and those exchanges. And the other thing I saw from

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Speaker 1: round Tree that I don't love against a fighter like

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Speaker 1: he'll is he has that Muytai style where he likes

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Speaker 1: to have a quick exchange with you and then kind

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Speaker 1: of pull all the way out, take a break, reset,

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Speaker 1: and then do it again, almost like we're taking turns

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Speaker 1: where he'll with the more boxing style kind of keeps

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Speaker 1: that pressure going and doesn't give you those breaks or

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Speaker 1: those disruptions that obviously worked against him in the Alex

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Speaker 1: Bejeda fight where he thought he was getting a break

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Speaker 1: from a growing shot and then Herbdean just let him

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Speaker 1: keep going a little bit fluky, But like that's part

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Speaker 1: of just what he does, is he keeps that going,

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Speaker 1: and he stays close and stays in striking range instead

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Speaker 1: of separating all the way out.

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Speaker 3: And then outside of that, the.

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Speaker 1: Other factor is round Tree just took so much damage

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Speaker 1: against Alex Bejeda in his last fight, and that strikes

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Speaker 1: me as one of those that you just you see

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Speaker 1: guys never come back from those close title fights. Like

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Speaker 1: it reminds me of Anthony Smith or Dominic Reyes against

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Speaker 1: John Jones where they're on these great streaks and then

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Speaker 1: Jones just hurt him so bad. Even Alexander Guftis into

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Speaker 1: extent against John Jones, they were just never the same

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Speaker 1: fighter despite having close or in Smith's case like a

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Speaker 1: weird opportunity to win the belt. It wouldn't shock me

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Speaker 1: if we saw that out a round Tree not super

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Speaker 1: old for the division at thirty five, but you know,

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Speaker 1: not a young man either. So for all that reason,

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Speaker 1: I took Hill when he was slightly plus money. I

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Speaker 1: didn't get the best of the line. If you missed that.

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Speaker 1: I think the inside the distance of plus one seventy

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Speaker 1: five is probably the safest, just it's a five round fight.

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Speaker 1: I actually trust Hill's cardio more than round Trees. I

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Speaker 1: think he's a little bit smoother. He doesn't work as hard,

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Speaker 1: and as you know, much as we like to tease

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Speaker 1: Jamal Hill about his physique, he's not this big, jacked

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Speaker 1: up dude that burns through all of his oxygen. He

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Speaker 1: looked great in the later rounds against Glover. Some of

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Speaker 1: his other fights he looked great. Roundtree clearly faded against

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Speaker 1: Alex Bejeda, and he's just so explosive he tends to

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Speaker 1: burn himself out. So for a five round fight, I

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Speaker 1: think round Tree is going to fade at the end

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Speaker 1: if he doesn't get knocked out before that. So inside

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Speaker 1: the distance it's close to the knockout. Prop knockout is

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Speaker 1: obviously the most likely. I know you put knockout in there,

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Speaker 1: so I'm kind of debating what I would take if

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Speaker 1: I hadn't got Hill at plus money. Any of those, though,

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Speaker 1: I think are okay. And yeah, you mentioned Jamal Hill

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Speaker 1: is a live angle too, so I think you agree

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Speaker 1: with me. I'm the cardio aspect, completely.

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Speaker 2: Agree on the cardio aspect. In fact, I would even

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Speaker 2: go as far as to say hilld to win in

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Speaker 2: round four at eighteen to one, he'ld to win in

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Speaker 2: round five at twenty to one. Are interesting pokes this week.

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Speaker 2: What scares me off of betting those is I think

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Speaker 2: he could finish the fight in round three, and you know,

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Speaker 2: even going earlier than that, you know, the potentially compromised

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Speaker 2: shint for cool Roundtree coming off of the payer A fight.

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Speaker 2: Just I think massive durability edge for Jamal Hill here

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Speaker 2: and then a massive cardio edge as well. Round Tree

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Speaker 2: is going to be dangerous early, and I don't love

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Speaker 2: Hill's defense. Has been knocked out technically and consecutive fights.

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Speaker 2: They Guet finished on the ground in his last fight,

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Speaker 2: but has shown durability concerns you know, in his recent

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Speaker 2: fights and just has poor striking defensive tendency is really

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Speaker 2: bad footwork. So from the early going, in terms of

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Speaker 2: like a pure technical kickboxing match, I do think Roundtree

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Speaker 2: is going to have success in the early minutes, potentially

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Speaker 2: win the first round or two. But I think Jamal

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Speaker 2: takes over down the stretch with superior cardio and more importantly,

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Speaker 2: superior output. Hill lands about seven significant strikes per minute,

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Speaker 2: absorbs three point nine. Roundtree dead even lands three point nine,

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Speaker 2: absorbs three point eight. So Hill's out landing his opponents

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Speaker 2: by three point one strikes per minute, Roundtree getting out

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Speaker 2: landed by nearly a strike per minute. I often talk

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Speaker 2: about the combined offensive and defensive striking efficiency numbers. Typically

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Speaker 2: those add up to one hundred percent for fighters. Championship

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Speaker 2: caliber fighters will be closer one to ten. Hill is

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Speaker 2: at ninety eight, round Trees at eighty six. Round Tree

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Speaker 2: does not land at high percentage and also does not

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Speaker 2: defend strikes at a particularly high percentage either. So, as

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Speaker 2: I said, Hill, late props live after round one, live

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Speaker 2: after round two, maybe the best entry point late props

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Speaker 2: win in round four, round five. I make his money

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Speaker 2: line though minus one sixty, and I make his itd

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Speaker 2: odds around plus one sixteen. So any iteration of Hill

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Speaker 2: on the money line, Hill inside the distance, I think

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Speaker 2: I'll end up playing both props, or playing the money

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Speaker 2: line and the prop along with it, and then looking

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Speaker 2: for a live entry on Hill, as I said, live

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Speaker 2: after round two and considering the late props along with it. Billy,

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Speaker 2: do you have a price target that you would bet

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Speaker 2: Hill up to? And I'd imagine we can assume the

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Speaker 2: best live price might come after round two, but I

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Speaker 2: would be ready to go after round one as well.

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Speaker 3: Is that correct? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think to the first part of the question, anything

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Speaker 1: moving beyond the minus one ten that he's honestly, if

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Speaker 1: you're not getting plus money or like even money on

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Speaker 1: his pre fight money line, I think I would just

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Speaker 1: go inside the distance or knockout, just because it's overwhelmingly

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Speaker 1: the likeliest. Like and the one hand, I can see

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Speaker 1: Hill winning a decision due to the striking volume you mentioned.

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Speaker 1: But on the other these are like two guys in

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Speaker 1: their mid thirties coming off knockout losses, both with some

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Speaker 1: significant injuries. I just don't I don't see this one

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Speaker 1: hitting the judges, so it almost feels like free money.

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Speaker 3: To pivot.

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Speaker 2: I think still has to wrestle and top time him

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Speaker 2: for it to go all twenty five minutes, which he

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Speaker 2: can do. But I think it's unlikely. But you know,

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Speaker 2: later rounds, if they're tiring, if Jamal has gotten hurt

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Speaker 2: earlier in the fight, right doesn't want to keep it

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Speaker 2: at range, he has better cardio roundtree slowing down a

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Speaker 2: little bit. Maybe he takes him down, hold him down

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Speaker 2: for round, he takes a break on the feet. It's possible,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's only getting there if Jamal does

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Speaker 2: grapple and gets like ten minutes times.

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Speaker 3: That's fair, I will say.

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Speaker 1: I put it in this article the number of takedown

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Speaker 1: attempts between these two, and they're like twenty six UFC fights.

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Speaker 3: Zero.

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Speaker 1: Neither of them has ever even attempted a takedown. One

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Speaker 1: other thing I wanted to point out, I meant to

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Speaker 1: get to it earlier. Jamal Hill's back with his original

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Speaker 1: striking coach, Johnny Grigware. He has not been training with

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Speaker 1: Johnny for the last couple of years, partially due to injuries,

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Speaker 1: partially because Jamal was big timing him flying around to

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Speaker 1: Vegas doing celebrity basketball games and whatnot. A lot of

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Speaker 1: clips of Johnny out there training with Jamal doing some

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Speaker 1: of the unorthodox striking that got him there. I think

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Speaker 1: that is a very big boost to Hill. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of like getting back with Mickey after training

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Speaker 1: at other places for the Rocky analogy. But to your

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Speaker 1: point about the live, Yeah, if you see he'll get

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Speaker 1: to like plus two hundred kind of at any point,

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Speaker 1: I think that's probably a good bet. After round two

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Speaker 1: could be the peak. But you know, maybe he'll take

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Speaker 1: round one off and then turns it up and round two.

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Speaker 3: Final thing.

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Speaker 1: I've thrown too much out here about Jamal Hill, but

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Speaker 1: in his last fight against Yuri, his corner, which did

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Speaker 1: not feature Johnny Grigware, the great striking coach, told him

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Speaker 1: he was down two in a fight that was one

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Speaker 1: one on all three judges scorecards. And then Hill was

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Speaker 1: extra aggressive in round three against Yuri, which is when

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Speaker 1: he got knocked out. So, assuming they don't make that

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Speaker 1: mistake again, hopefully we don't see, he'll overextend himself early

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Speaker 1: and even if it even if they do tell him

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Speaker 1: that in a five round fight he doesn't need to

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Speaker 1: push too hard after two rounds. So that helps me

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Speaker 1: feel a little bit better about his money line chances

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Speaker 1: as well.

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Speaker 2: To go on tour Friday to night. A late weight

219
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Speaker 2: bout between half I l Fasive at about plus one

220
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Speaker 2: ten and Ignacio Bahamo is It minus one twenty four

221
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Speaker 2: fight is minus one fifty two to go to a decision,

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Speaker 2: plus one forty six to end inside the distance. I

223
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Speaker 2: think this is a good Bilo spot on PHYSIV favored

224
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Speaker 2: in both Gaygee fights minus two twenty five in the

225
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Speaker 2: first fight, minus one sixty five in the rematch, is

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Speaker 2: minus one thirty before he injured his knee against him

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Speaker 2: Tayos Gamrot minus two hundred and a five round fight

228
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Speaker 2: against RDA. He hasn't been an underdog since he fought

229
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Speaker 2: Martia Case in twenty twenty one. On the other hand,

230
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Speaker 2: Ignacio Vahamndez, he went from minus one seventy five to

231
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Speaker 2: plus one oh six against Manuel Torres. That's how much

232
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Speaker 2: the market disliked him in that Torres fight. People were

233
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Speaker 2: betting Jalen Turner pretty aggressively against him in his last matchup.

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Speaker 2: I believe you and me were both on Bajamondez in

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Speaker 2: that fight, Billy, But overall, I do think this is

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Speaker 2: a market over correction relative to how they have been

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Speaker 2: bet and how they have been valued previously. That said,

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Speaker 2: the physical aspects of this fight, the cardio dynamic of

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Speaker 2: this fight certainly favors bajam Odes. He's the much bigger

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Speaker 2: man seven and taller for inch reach advantage. Phiziev has

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Speaker 2: faded generally in the third round of his fights, kind

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Speaker 2: of in the second half of his fights.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: The second gay Chi fight his most recent matchup. He

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Speaker 2: did take it coming off of that knee injury on

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Speaker 2: relatively short notice. He didn't have a full camp going

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Speaker 2: into that fight. He was a replacement for Gaichie's originally

248
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Speaker 2: booked opponents, So I do think more time removed from

249
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Speaker 2: the injury a little bit better for Prizziv. But ultimately,

250
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Speaker 2: you know, I think Bajamondez could be a spot to

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Speaker 2: live at after round one. But pre fight, I want

252
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Speaker 2: Physiv moneyline, and I want Phazive to win either inside

253
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Speaker 2: the distance or by KO. I also like his round

254
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Speaker 2: one KO odds at ten to one as well. Baha Mondez,

255
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Speaker 2: as I said, has that bigger reach advantage, going to

256
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Speaker 2: be the more effective striker from distance, but Physive in

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Speaker 2: the pocket has the cleaner hands, and I do not

258
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Speaker 2: trust bahamondez is striking defense or his head movement from

259
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Speaker 2: getting clipped in the pocket. I think he's going to

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Speaker 2: get hit, and I think he's going to get hurt early.

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Speaker 2: We'll see if phys Ze is able to put him away.

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Speaker 2: But z by KO at plus four ten, I make

263
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Speaker 2: that about plus three fifty, and his money line at

264
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,360
Speaker 2: plus one ten I make closer to a pick'm price.

265
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Speaker 2: So anything plus money on that, anything plus three to

266
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Speaker 2: fifty are better on the KO prop, and then baham

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Speaker 2: mode is live after round one. I think you can

268
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Speaker 2: enter and try to r about a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Billy.

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Speaker 2: I know you don't have as many thoughts on this

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Speaker 2: fight as I do. And you know, granted, I'm betting

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Speaker 2: into more of the market adjustment than I am into

273
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Speaker 2: the dynamics of the cardio and the reach and the

274
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Speaker 2: height in this matchup. So how do you see this

275
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Speaker 2: one playing out? Any interest on betting it at all?

276
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Speaker 2: Should be a good, one exciting matchup between these two.

277
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Speaker 2: I think somebody ultimately finishes this one, though I don't

278
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Speaker 2: think this goes all fifteen minutes.

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Speaker 3: What's your read here?

280
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Speaker 1: The problem for me and I have this in every

281
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Speaker 1: nach obaam on this fight is he has very very

282
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Speaker 1: good submissions, but refuses to grapple proactively. Every time he

283
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:57,960
Speaker 1: gets in a submission game going, it's because somebody else

284
00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,880
Speaker 1: initiated the grappling and then he made it work. And

285
00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:04,040
Speaker 1: why that bothers me is because if he just mixed

286
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Speaker 1: in or takedown every once in a while, even a

287
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Speaker 1: takedown attempt, it would open up so much for him

288
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Speaker 1: in the striking game. If he tries to engage in

289
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Speaker 1: a pure striking match with half al physive Raphael, he's

290
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Speaker 1: not Brazilian. I see it the same way as you,

291
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Speaker 1: where physiav is just so much more technical and it's

292
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Speaker 1: going to outstrike him. But it's an MMA fight, So

293
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,800
Speaker 1: like you'd want Bahamundays to press that advantage a little bit,

294
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:27,920
Speaker 1: I just can't trust him to do it at this

295
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 1: point because he never does where it seems like that

296
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,720
Speaker 1: would be a good opportunity for him, especially with the

297
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Speaker 1: height dynamics, because when Physique gets close, if Bahamunda's clinches

298
00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,840
Speaker 1: and then makes him worry about the takedown, it keeps

299
00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,120
Speaker 1: the range. He can use that extended reach to pick

300
00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,520
Speaker 1: him apart. But with that said, I don't see him

301
00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,520
Speaker 1: doing it, So I think the only way I jump

302
00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,160
Speaker 1: in on this one is if I do see Baha

303
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,880
Speaker 1: Monday's even just threaten a takedown early just to put

304
00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:55,600
Speaker 1: it in his head, and then you know, if the

305
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,480
Speaker 1: life price is similar after a round one and he's

306
00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,920
Speaker 1: at least shown that he might try to go for

307
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,960
Speaker 1: takedown or you know, submission from the clinch, whatever, and

308
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:04,880
Speaker 1: we can still get a decent price because he lost

309
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Speaker 1: the striking. That's where I would want to jump in

310
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:08,839
Speaker 1: on Bahamunda's.

311
00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Phaziv pretty good takedown defense in ninety percent for

312
00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,240
Speaker 2: his career. He actually tripped Aichi a couple times in

313
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,240
Speaker 2: their last fight. He has those really nice trips from

314
00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:18,280
Speaker 2: the clinch. I think he's the better clinch fighter of

315
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,280
Speaker 2: the pair, So I don't see Bajamond as ultimately having

316
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 2: much grappling success. Maybe he could wrap him up with

317
00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,000
Speaker 2: a ninja choke or something with those long limbs, you know,

318
00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,480
Speaker 2: standing a standing joke, just to end the fight in

319
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,200
Speaker 2: like an awkward way. Those that's what those long limbs

320
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,200
Speaker 2: are good for. When you're in tight you can you

321
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 2: can wrap them up around next that normally wouldn't be

322
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:38,800
Speaker 2: able to get all the way around. But yeah, it

323
00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 2: should be a fun fight. I think somebody finishes that one.

324
00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,280
Speaker 2: I'm going to take phaziv b refight on the inside

325
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,160
Speaker 2: the distance and the KO lines prefer that to his

326
00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 2: money line. I do think this goes all fifteen minutes.

327
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 2: It's likely to be a close in competitive decision, and

328
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,200
Speaker 2: I think Bahamones will be better optics in the second

329
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,360
Speaker 2: half of round two and then in all of round three.

330
00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 2: So getting the better optics towards the end the rounds

331
00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,440
Speaker 2: often tends to help fighters, and I think that is

332
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,640
Speaker 2: why Physie has dropped, you know, in a number of close decisions,

333
00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,360
Speaker 2: including that that first Day decision. It seemed like he

334
00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,200
Speaker 2: was winning around two, but the final two minutes, final

335
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,040
Speaker 2: ninety seconds of that round kind of swung against them. Ultimately,

336
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 2: let's look to our favorite underdogs though. On Saturday's card.

337
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,040
Speaker 2: Got three fights that we want to talk about here,

338
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,120
Speaker 2: and then another underdog I will give out in the

339
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,080
Speaker 2: best bet section as well. Start with the heavyweight battle

340
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:30,360
Speaker 2: between Curtis Blades, who's minus two fifty against risbon kuonieb

341
00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,440
Speaker 2: at plus two twenty fighters plus one twenty five to

342
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,120
Speaker 2: go to a decision minus one fifty five to end

343
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,680
Speaker 2: inside the distance, and I like the ITD line. I

344
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:42,240
Speaker 2: make that closer to minus two twenty. But Kuonieb has

345
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 2: never been finished, and I do view him as the

346
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,160
Speaker 2: more valub side of that ITD prop and I like

347
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 2: his idd prop at about plus three hundred, I make

348
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:56,080
Speaker 2: that plus two twenty. Blades coming off of another knockout

349
00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,640
Speaker 2: loss against Tom aspinall just seems not like his shit

350
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 2: is shot. But he's very skittish on the feet at

351
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 2: this point, and it's almost like a somebody else having

352
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 2: the yips in a different sport where you know, the

353
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,560
Speaker 2: fighting he had against Jerzy No rosenstrike, Blades is shooting

354
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 2: for takedowns with his eyes closed, like Jerzino is swinging

355
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 2: in him in the pocket and he's literally like closing

356
00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 2: his eyes and like hoping he doesn't get hit as

357
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,600
Speaker 2: he's entering into exchanges. He's the better kickboxer here probably,

358
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,360
Speaker 2: but he's so skittish on the feet now, I don't

359
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 2: know if he wants to strike, and it may affect

360
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 2: his ability to get takedowns. And if he doesn't get

361
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 2: takedowns against Kuoniev, who is a former sambo guy his

362
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 2: one fights via offensive grappling, Kuoniev is able to keep

363
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 2: this on the feet. I think this is likely close

364
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,280
Speaker 2: and competitive, and Koniev may be the more durable of

365
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 2: the two fighters. So give me Kooniev plus two twenty.

366
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 2: I forgot where I projected his money on that, but

367
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 2: there was plenty of value here. I make this closer.

368
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 2: I think the plus one sixty so I don't think

369
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 2: two to one are better on rizvon Kuniev, and then

370
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 2: his inside the distance odds as well at three to

371
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,760
Speaker 2: one is Ko prop could be alterned too. As I said,

372
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 2: Blade's probably a better striker for Wren's reach advantage. We

373
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,639
Speaker 2: give you the guy with the more with more durability,

374
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,840
Speaker 2: who I think can actually defend takedowns and keep this

375
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,679
Speaker 2: one standing. But you know, ns I td minus one

376
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,960
Speaker 2: fifty five I think is a solid price as well.

377
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,200
Speaker 2: I make that closer to minus two twenty, so might

378
00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 2: bet the under end, Kuniev, might bet Kuoniev ID We'll

379
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 2: see how I go about organizing that one out. But

380
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,119
Speaker 2: I do like this heavyweight bout to finish, which I

381
00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,399
Speaker 2: do not normally say about Curtis Blade's fights. Do you

382
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 2: have any read on this one Billy and any bet

383
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:29,920
Speaker 2: you're considering making.

384
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just still a little bit scared about Kuniev

385
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 1: because he tested positive for all the steroids against Penn

386
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,359
Speaker 1: and fair like go check it out as typology there,

387
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,560
Speaker 1: that's like five of them. And then sure he came

388
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,280
Speaker 1: back on the Contender series, but he'd beat a guy

389
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,919
Speaker 1: who's like really just a jiu jitsu dude who is

390
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,159
Speaker 1: kind of trying MMA. I would almost say, who's like

391
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,640
Speaker 1: lost a couple since then, So I don't know how

392
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,160
Speaker 1: to feel about him. Obviously, we are in the post

393
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 1: Usada era, so it might not matter if we assume

394
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,199
Speaker 1: the Kuoniev that we've seen that his best will be

395
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 1: the one who up regardless of what that means in

396
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 1: terms of his supplement routine.

397
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:05,680
Speaker 3: Then I'm totally with you on it.

398
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Daga standa grappler, as you said, has a win

399
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,040
Speaker 2: over Hendon Ferira in PFL and never been finished, so

400
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,199
Speaker 2: a lot going to his side of the money line

401
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 2: there against the guy who's been knocked out five times

402
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 2: and is coming off of a knockout loss. And speaking

403
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:22,879
Speaker 2: of knockouts, Sun Young Co whose nickname is also co

404
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,880
Speaker 2: or Ko, I'm not really sure, but the Korean Tyson

405
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 2: Sun Young co. He's plus three to seventy this week

406
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 2: against Oban Elliott. Elliott is north of minus five hundred.

407
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 2: Co Won is a plus two to forty underdog a

408
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 2: contender series. Six of his eleven wins have come by knockout,

409
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,000
Speaker 2: but he also has two knockout losses of his own.

410
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: Elliott seemingly as the top time the grappling upside here.

411
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,640
Speaker 2: I make Co's money line plus three thirty three, though,

412
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 2: so convince me to fire on Korean Tyson for Saturday, Billy.

413
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 1: Bo, I'm really glad you mentioned the top time in

414
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: the rustling for Oban Elliott, his game has taken a

415
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 1: huge step forward as he started to wrestle more aggressively.

416
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 1: Like if you want some of his earlier tape, he

417
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 1: was kind of just brawling with people and it went

418
00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,880
Speaker 1: mostly fine for him, but you know, lower level opposition.

419
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 1: The Korean Tyson Siung Hong Koko or whatever if we

420
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 1: try to say his nickname in the middle like we

421
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 1: normally do, is a judo black belt who also competed

422
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: internationally ensembo. My thesis here is that he has the

423
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,119
Speaker 1: defensive grappling or at least the threat of submissions that

424
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 1: Elliott can't just work him over from the top and

425
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 1: kind of ride out that decision, which then means we'll

426
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,479
Speaker 1: have a striking match between two guys.

427
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 3: Co is kind of like that.

428
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 1: I don't love the stereotype here, but like almost every

429
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 1: Korean fighter we see who just loves to brawl, they

430
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 1: all have fairly good power, usually pretty decent chins, but

431
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 1: like just no interest in defense, and Obot Elliott is

432
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 1: fairly hittable.

433
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 3: He got knocked down by Val wouldburn of all people.

434
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 1: So basically that means if this one becomes a pure

435
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 1: striking match, we're kind of just flipping coins on the feet.

436
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: One of those coins lands at almost plus four hundred.

437
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: I got it plus four hundred or later in the week,

438
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,479
Speaker 1: but the market has moved with me a little bit,

439
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: So that is the thesis here. There's obviously the risk

440
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 1: that Oban can still wrestle him, because, like you know, wrestling,

441
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 1: it's like a rock paper scissors thing with judo and

442
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu sometimes, But if it stays standing, it's just

443
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: two guys swinging real hard and we'll see who falls first.

444
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 3: And I like it, and plus four hundred on one

445
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 3: of those sides.

446
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably end up sprinkling co along with you.

447
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 2: That fight is basically pick him to go to decision

448
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 2: as well, which I found kind of interesting. I think

449
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,399
Speaker 2: that one probably ends up finishing inside the distance just

450
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 2: given the pace. Elliott is pretty durable, but given the pace,

451
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 2: it seems likely that that one does end by finish.

452
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,919
Speaker 2: Mohammed Naimov minus two fifty against bog and Grad at

453
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 2: plus t twenty five. I think we may get a

454
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 2: better live number on Grad, but both of us are

455
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: interested in him. In him pre fight, I projected his

456
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 2: money line at plus one ninety and I make the

457
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: ghost to decision prop about minus one twenty. You can

458
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: bet plus money plus one oh eight on the GTV prop.

459
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 2: This might be a very high paced fight as well,

460
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 2: but if it does extend, if it does go all

461
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes, I think Grad to win by decision could

462
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 2: be a good value. Bad Grad live is probably the

463
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: best angle.

464
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 3: Grad.

465
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: Round three is the interesting sprinkle at fifteen to one,

466
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 2: just because of the cardio dynamic. I do view him

467
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 2: as the guy with the better cardio in this matchup.

468
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 2: Name off can grap a little bit, but that tends

469
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 2: to tire him out. That's that Grad was losing his

470
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 2: fight to Lucas Alexander. Before Alexander faated, there was a

471
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 2: bad weight cut for Alexander, but also some like pain

472
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 2: fume stuff in the locker room that got some guys

473
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,959
Speaker 2: complained about that ended up hurting their gas thanks that night. Regardless,

474
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 2: you know, the cardio dynamic of this matchup, I think

475
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 2: favors Grad and one other piece name ofv is a cheater.

476
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: The dude fouls in every fight, and it's really just

477
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 2: up to the ref whether to take a point away

478
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 2: from him or not. In this area of the world,

479
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 2: probably gonna be a little bit more lenient with him.

480
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 2: He's probably the a side of this matchup that set

481
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 2: the potential that your money line Beck gets saved getting

482
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 2: beat two rounds to one because Namov commit to foul,

483
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: which he does in every single fight, grab at the cage,

484
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: hitting dudes low. I just think there's there's a lot

485
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: of pass to Grad at least pushing this fight, if

486
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 2: not winning out right. But again, you may get a

487
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 2: better number live after the first round. Give him the

488
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: cardio a naw between these two, so you like Grad

489
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,199
Speaker 2: pre fight as well, Billy, any other prop angles for

490
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: you on this fight, and then I would assume also

491
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 2: a live entry after round one.

492
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, Grad is a guy I got to write up

493
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: a couple times on the Contender series because he appeared twice.

494
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,200
Speaker 1: He got knocked out by Tom Nolan. What I said

495
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 1: going into that one is that Grad likes to brawl

496
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: and throw hands on the feet, but he's at his

497
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: best when he's wrestling and getting takedowns. Kind of didn't

498
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: get the chance to find out if he was gonna

499
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,199
Speaker 1: shoot on Tom Nolan because he got dropped twice in

500
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 1: the first minute and a half. But then in his

501
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 1: return three takedowns against Michael Aswell, wins a decision, three

502
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 1: takedowns against Lucas Alexander finishes him on the ground.

503
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 3: It kind of seems like Grad knows where his bread

504
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 3: is buttered here.

505
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: Naimov can grapple a little bit offensively, but he's a

506
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: taekwondo guy by trade, you know, super tall stance, likes

507
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 1: to spend kick a just makes it very easy for

508
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,919
Speaker 1: opponents to take him down, and he kind of he

509
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 1: gets stuck down there a little bit. We saw it

510
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 1: against Colin England on the Contender series, and the reason

511
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: you don't remember Colin Engler's name is because he didn't

512
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 1: do anything in the UFC, but he did beat and

513
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: I'm off. On the Contender series, a few other guys

514
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: took him down a bunch of times, so I like

515
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 1: those grappling dynamics. The prop I'm most interested in would

516
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: be Grad on the point spread at plus three and

517
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 1: a half. That's even money, which you know is a

518
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 1: somewhat big price adjustment because he's plus two thirty.

519
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 3: On the money line now at certain books. But you know,

520
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 3: what are the odds?

521
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 1: You can't even win one round with a takedown here

522
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 1: and there, and Grad is fairly durable outside of the

523
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: tominal and knockout. I would probably go that way, but

524
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: just the money line is so juicy at this point,

525
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 1: I don't see any reason to get too cute.

526
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 2: Could go Yard all season along with underdogs pick him game.

527
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 2: Underdog is one of leading sports apps and can play

528
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Speaker 2: times your money. And since we're talking UFC today, Billy,

538
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Speaker 2: what are you cooking up on underdog for hires and

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Speaker 2: lowers this weekend?

540
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 3: Yeah?

541
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: Fight, we just talked about an angle we just talked

542
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: about between Oban Elliott and Siokonko. I like Elliott to

543
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 1: stay lower than two point five takedowns. Here what I

544
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 1: just talked about, not only can Co grapple, but I

545
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: think his submissions will be somewhat of a deterrent at

546
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 1: the very least. And then I'm going to throw that

547
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: in there with Siakonko higher than thirty two point five

548
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: significant strikes, fairly active striker Oban Elliott is fairly hittable,

549
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: and if this fight stays on the feet, there's just

550
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 1: plenty of opportunity for those strikes to land. So we

551
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: can mix those two together. There's a few angles I

552
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 1: like on Co, but I really like the Elliott lower

553
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: than two point five takedowns. If you want to join

554
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: me on that Download the Underdog app and sign up

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566
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567
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568
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 2: Let's move on to fights. We want to discuss from

569
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 2: a prop perspective this weekend. We will end up touching

570
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 2: on all twelve fights throughout the show. Nazim Satakov minus

571
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 2: four to twenty against Nicholas Mada at plus three six

572
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 2: the madus one consecutive fights is a big underdog. He

573
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 2: Ko tom Noan as a plus three ten hunderdog, and

574
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 2: he beat Ma's shot by decision at plus two hundred

575
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: and Nizim Satakov has been a live underdog in several

576
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: of his fights. He was taken down and controlled by

577
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 2: Terrence M. Kenny for round one. He was losing the

578
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 2: bond fime and the EV and l there fights. He

579
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: lost rounds one and three to Slava Clause. He ten

580
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 2: eighted him in round two. So overall, seeing a big,

581
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 2: juicy number on Azim is not particularly a feeling, especially

582
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 2: when Mata has pulled some recent upsets. But you do

583
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: like Nazim to finish this fight inside the distance and

584
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 2: taking a discount at minus one seventy compared to that

585
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 2: money line north of minus four hundred. I like Nazim

586
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 2: live on the money line after round one. No pre

587
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 2: fight bet for me here, But how did you end

588
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 2: up landing on Azim inside the distance and then any

589
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 2: round props? In particular, do you like him to finish

590
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: this early or do you think he finishes it later

591
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: in terms of cardio advantage.

592
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean as to how I landed on it,

593
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 1: Nicholas Mada either finishes you or gets finished. I mean

594
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: the vast majority of the time, has never lost a decision.

595
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 1: So he's been finished five times, knocked out four, which

596
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: is pretty concerning. And then he's no contest against Trey Ogden.

597
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: He actually got submitted in that fight, like he was

598
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 1: seconds away from being tap. That should have been a loss.

599
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: Still feel bad for Trey Ogden for that one, because

600
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: if had the reft just waited a few seconds to

601
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 1: jump in, that would be another win for Ogden and Sadikov.

602
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: As you pointed out, good power. You know, conten eight

603
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 1: some people. He's got most of his wins by finish.

604
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 1: He has won just one decision. So when you put

605
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: those two things together, basically his money line and finished

606
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 1: props should be much closer if it does go to

607
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:24,920
Speaker 1: a decision.

608
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 3: I actually do worry.

609
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: For Sadikov, but the finish only prop is just ridiculous,

610
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: Like you're not laying the massive juice on that, even

611
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 1: though it might get refunded. So with all that said,

612
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: that leads me to his inside the distance of minus

613
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 1: one seventy not a great line, but wanted to touch

614
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 1: on that fight a little bit, and I think it

615
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 1: would probably be It feels like an early second to me,

616
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 1: like Mada has his moments early Sadikov, you know, kind

617
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: of get there's his bearings and comes back out. You

618
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 1: see him finish a lot of people. Well, I guess

619
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: one was a doctor stoppage at the end of the

620
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: first round, which would I never know if those are

621
00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 1: going to score as a first round win or a

622
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 1: second round and when they stop it between the rounds,

623
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: like you can make a case for both of them.

624
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 1: But something like that is how I'm looking to it.

625
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: And yeah, that's all I got on that one. I

626
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: know you've got a bunch of fights you expect to

627
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,360
Speaker 1: not end inside the distance on this card.

628
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 2: And Satakov rownd two is plus four to ten, Round

629
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 2: three is plus seven hundred. Not super appealing prices, but

630
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 2: maybe worth a small sprinkle there. Definitely live after round

631
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: one is where I'd look given how his fights have

632
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: played out, and I think Mada could be competitive for

633
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 2: five minutes he doesn't get knocked out. Yeah, to your point,

634
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: a bunch of fights. I do like to go all

635
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes this week in the Big Cage over an Azerbaijan.

636
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: Let's just run down the list. So Ishmael Nardiev against

637
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 2: young Young Park, this fight I projected closer to minus

638
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 2: one fifty yo to a decision. It is currently minus

639
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: one thirty two. Bit small both of these guys for

640
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 2: the middleweight division, I'd say more welterweight size middleweights A

641
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 2: Park fifty of his UFC fights have gone to decision. Generally,

642
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: I do not view him as a big power puncher,

643
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 2: and I I don't think he's a big submission threat

644
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 2: unless his opponents hire out and he's able to take

645
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: the back, and I do think that is a potential

646
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: possibility here in the late stages of this fight with Nardia,

647
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: because Nardiev is solid, but he does slow down later

648
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: in the fights. This is his second stint in the UFC,

649
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 2: though five of his nine career decisions across thirty one

650
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 2: bouts have come.

651
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 3: In the UFC.

652
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 2: All of his UFC fights have gone to decision. I

653
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 2: think this is either a Park round three finish or

654
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: fight GTD, so I might play it both. I might

655
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: play Park round three as a hedge, but the GTD

656
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 2: prop minus one thirty two. As I said, I projected

657
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: that closer to minus one fifty. You could probably lay

658
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 2: that up to minus one thirty five minus one forty.

659
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: Darius Jleeshnikova against Melissa Mullens. These two have fought previously

660
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 2: and the fight did end inside the distance. But comparing

661
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 2: it to the bantamweight average the women's bandam weight average

662
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: about sixty one percent. I projected this at fifty four percent,

663
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 2: and they're giving you plus one twenty which is forty

664
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 2: five percent, so nearly a sixteen percent difference compared to

665
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 2: the women's bandom weight average. Pretty binary striker versus grappler matchup.

666
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: I would not bet this one too aggressively, but if

667
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: we can keep this one standing, I think it goes

668
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 2: all fifteen minutes or potentially as the less Nakova has

669
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 2: solidified or bottom game. It does not get finished on

670
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 2: the ground as quickly as this time. Of the two

671
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 2: women's fights, though I think I like Siva against Claudia

672
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 2: Segula is the better bet. Billy likes this one as well. Again,

673
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 2: same woman's bandom weight divisional average of sixty one percent.

674
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 2: I projected this one above the average, though I make

675
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: this one sixty four percent to go to decision in

676
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: minus one to eighty. The market is giving you minus

677
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 2: one twenty five at fifty five percent implied, so about

678
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 2: six percent below the divisional average nine percent below My

679
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: projection seems binary on paper, do have to bet into

680
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: the numbers, though, given the weight class minus one twenty five,

681
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: I think you could lay that up to about minus

682
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: one forty. And then lastly to Gear one Beckov against

683
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 2: Azat Maxim at flyweight. I feel like Ti Gear has

684
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 2: generally kind of gone from overrated to underrated in the UFC.

685
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 2: He only has one loss him against Tim Elliott. He's

686
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 2: been in some other competitive decisions, but he has a

687
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: win over Alan Asamento that has aged really well. He

688
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 2: just is so reliable to get the takedowns. I mean,

689
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 2: he's from the Eagle MMA team, the original team with

690
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:24,479
Speaker 2: Kabeb and islam Like. He's extremely well trained, does not

691
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: have the best gas tank necessarily, but that's because he's

692
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 2: big for the division and has trouble cutting to make

693
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 2: the weight. So I actually think he might be the

694
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: better striker of these two. Maxim is also taking this

695
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: fight on very short notice in place of Kyogi Horgucci.

696
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 2: Like talk about a big step down in competition from

697
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 2: facing Hora Gucci to facing Asap Maxim. So I do

698
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: think Tagear wins this one, but wins it by decision.

699
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 2: I think Maxim survived survives on bottom. I make Tigear's

700
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 2: decision line about minus one twenty five, would bet that

701
00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 2: up to minus one twenty billion. I think he might

702
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: have thoughts on the Alexiva fight, potentially the one Becka

703
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 2: fight as well, but any of the four fights that

704
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 2: I just broke down. If you have betting thoughts on

705
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 2: any of them, fee fretty give them out.

706
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: Yeah. I love the schoola Alexeva goes to decisions.

707
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: It's just neither of them are really dynamic enough to

708
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: threaten the other one too much, if that makes sense. Especially,

709
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: I think the only reason we're getting this kit of

710
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 1: a price because Alexeva has a submission went over Stephanie Egger.

711
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 1: But she was like a million years old and retired

712
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: shortly after that and was on a very long losing streak,

713
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 1: So you kind of throw that one out. And then,

714
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: speaking of fights that you kind of should probably just

715
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: throw out when you're handicapping, that is anyone against tim Elliott, Like,

716
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: you can't draw any conclusions about how someone fights based

717
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 1: on their performance good or bad against Tim Elliot because

718
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: Tim Elliott just does the weirdest stuff it's not something

719
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: you're going to see from anyone else.

720
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 3: Like that should just be a blanket rule.

721
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: Like when you look at a fighter's record if they

722
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: have Tim Elliott on there, just pretend it didn't happen

723
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: and handicap how you would had that not been the case.

724
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 1: So I think you're right about the market's view on

725
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: TI gear. But I think that's why to Elliott. But Elliott,

726
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 1: it's almost like the little version of Michael Johnson where

727
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: he can beat the best guys lose to the worst guys.

728
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: It probably doesn't mean anything. Just don't let it adjust

729
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 1: your priors too much because it doesn't mean anything.

730
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 2: It's good to our best bets. One fight that we

731
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: both have a bet on, but Billy best bet is

732
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 2: going to come here. This is more of a proper

733
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 2: Lene for me. Tfik Musaiev against Mick to Beck oral By.

734
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: This was a lightweight bout, but they moved it up

735
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,959
Speaker 2: to a catchweight of one hundred and sixty five pounds

736
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: on Friday. I believe Oralby had trouble making the weight.

737
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 2: He has had trouble making it in the past. He

738
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 2: weighed in at one sixty five and to Fik weighed

739
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: in at one sixty three. So would imagine considering oral

740
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: By winning a bit heavier right the one hundred and

741
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 2: sixty five pounds a limit, imagine he was the one

742
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: who is struggling to make the weight. But I do

743
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 2: view him as the guy with better cardio and more

744
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 2: tenacity over the final two rounds in this fight. I

745
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: think he's a good live entry after the first round.

746
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 2: I think Tafik will be dangerous early. This is a

747
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 2: guy who's well trained, fought and risen, fought and fought

748
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 2: in Beltor, but more pertly he's the local fighter. He

749
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: is from Iserbaijan, and I do worry if we get

750
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 2: a closely competitive decision that it will lean to Tafiks.

751
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 2: So you were taking oral By in the money line,

752
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: which means I think you feel like he can finish

753
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 2: the fight in potentially the second or third rounds five

754
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: intes regiadvantage. He's incredibly durable. We both bet Matass from

755
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 2: Bechki against them, So now you're running it back with

756
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 2: oral Bi as a favorite. And do you like his

757
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 2: live angle as well?

758
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like the live angle.

759
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: It's not necessarily that I think Orby I get the

760
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 1: finish It's just that rounds oral By wins are going

761
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: to be extremely clear that he won that, like unless

762
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 1: you filled out your scorecard before the fight started, which

763
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 1: is entirely possible here. But unless that's the case, I

764
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: don't think we're going to have too much controversy. Musaiva

765
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 1: is the better striker, fairly clean striker. I know, people

766
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 1: you know hear the kind of slavic sounding last name

767
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: and assume grappler, but he has a striking background. I

768
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: don't know if this is still accurate, but according to

769
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 1: his Wikipedia he's a blue belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu.

770
00:34:58,440 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 1: You'd like to think maybe he at least kind of

771
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: since the time that was written, but nowhere near the

772
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 1: level of grappling as oral By, who is competitive in

773
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: the grappling with matas ron Beski, who's like, you know,

774
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,720
Speaker 1: ADCC qualifier and all that good stuff. I think Musaia

775
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 1: needs a knockout here or he's just gonna get taken

776
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: down and controlled on the ground in rounds that look

777
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: pretty clear, and it's not clear that it's actually possible

778
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: to knock out. Look to back oral By because he

779
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 1: took so much damage from Rebecky at the end of

780
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: the first round, as I was totally shut.

781
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know how.

782
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 2: For sure after the first round, like that eye was

783
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 2: broken and he just he's so tough. He just kept

784
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 2: fighting through it.

785
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 1: He's incredible and like one a round after that, not

786
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: just like sur limped to the bell, like continued to

787
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: win after that. The most amazing part of that performance

788
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: is that the doctor came in and covered his good eye,

789
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 1: and he correctly guessed the number of fingers the doctor

790
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 1: was holding up because there's no way he could actually

791
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: see out of that one at the time. All of

792
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: which is actually playing to your ghost to decision line here,

793
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 1: I understand. So yeah, I just think you know, when

794
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: Moussai have struggled in other organizations, it has been against

795
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: grappling or grapplers submitted fairly recently. That is a weakness

796
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 1: for him, and he's also a thirty five year old

797
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: coming over to the UFC hasn't been great for guys

798
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 1: making their UFC debut from other organizations lately, like Pitbull lost,

799
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: Patchy Mix looked terrible, Kaya Sakura didn't look great against Pantosia.

800
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: Like we're kind of seeing that these levels do exist

801
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 1: for a reason, especially when these guys are coming over

802
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: past their prime. And the other interesting thing from Musaiah

803
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 1: if he hasn't fought in almost two years. So yeah,

804
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: thirty five year old, almost two years out of action

805
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 1: and stepping up to a new promotion probably only got

806
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 1: signed because he's the highest level fighter from the country

807
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: that the UFC is going to for the first time.

808
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 1: Those don't necessarily mean anything, but they're all concerning signs.

809
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, as you mentioned, lean to goes to the decision.

810
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:52,359
Speaker 3: I make that.

811
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 2: I make that minus money you can get plus one

812
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: thirty five on that prop. Divisional average is about forty

813
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 2: six percent and plus one eighteen you're getting plus one

814
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 2: thirty five here, so a little bit of an edge

815
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 2: relative to the divisional norm. And then also oral by

816
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 2: by decision of plus two sixty, I make that closer

817
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: to plus one ninety. But I think the live angle

818
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 2: on this fight my favorite way to bet it. I

819
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 2: think the fee will be a competitor for a round

820
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 2: and then oral bio will take over. Late. Final fight

821
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 2: on the car that we're going to talk about is

822
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 2: the first fight on the car that's handy of Dell

823
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 2: Wahab minus one seven against Mohammed Usman. At plus one

824
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 2: forty two, this fight is minus two hundred to go

825
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 2: to a decision in the heavyweight division, with a divisional

826
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 2: average closer to about a fifty two percent finish rate,

827
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 2: plus one sixty a very juicy interesting number to bet

828
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 2: between these heavyweights. That said, Handy is not much of

829
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 2: a finisher and Usman, while he carries power, really needs

830
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 2: to crack you hard in order to put you away.

831
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,720
Speaker 2: Handy's won two splits, though he certainly did not deserve

832
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 2: the split over Jamal Pogues eighteen of the thirty media

833
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 2: member eighteen of the thirteen media members and seventy seventy

834
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: seven percent of fans scored that out for Pogues. The

835
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 2: Dwantel Mays split, he probably did deserve. Just one media

836
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 2: members score that for Mays and seventeen percent of fans

837
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 2: scored it for Mays. But Usman is a big seven

838
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 2: inch reach advantage here. He can wrestle, and he hits

839
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 2: harder and with more impact. Between these two. He was

840
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 2: also able to scramble back from takedowns against Thomas Petterson.

841
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 2: Hamdy hasn't shown the ability to consistently hold guys down.

842
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 2: I know he did get Mays down for a little bit,

843
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 2: but I don't think his wrestling. He's an Olympic of

844
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 2: a wrestler, but I don't think his MMA cage wrestling

845
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 2: is quite as functional, and I don't think his game

846
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 2: is super coherent for this sport. So I just prefer

847
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:35,760
Speaker 2: Mohammed Usman's power.

848
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 3: I prefer the.

849
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,439
Speaker 2: Impact of his strikes when these two are at range,

850
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 2: and I think he has enough defensive wrestling to keep

851
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 2: this fight standing. I make his decision prop about plus

852
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,760
Speaker 2: two to fifty three. You could bet Usman by decision

853
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 2: at plus three to fifty and then Usman on the

854
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 2: money line, I make him closer to plus one twenty

855
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 2: would take him down to about plus one thirty BILLI.

856
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 2: I know you said you'd rather this fight not exist,

857
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 2: but if you had to bet it, imagine you're taking

858
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: Usman on the money one. Probably not betting it at

859
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 2: all though, And then just any other thoughts on any

860
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 2: other of the fights that we discussed on this card

861
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 2: before we get out of it.

862
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you've probably talked me into Usman. You

863
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: you sparked something in me because you mentioned that Hamdi

864
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: is an Olympic level wrestler. He's an Olympic level Greco

865
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: Roman wrestler, which we've talked about a couple of times

866
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 1: in the last few weeks. You need the clinch to

867
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 1: make that work. You Greco, they don't shoot, and also

868
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of emphasis placed on holding guys

869
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 1: down in Greco compared to like American folk style wrestling,

870
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,480
Speaker 1: which lines up perfectly with what you said.

871
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 3: Other thought I have on this one.

872
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: You know, we hit the no cody parlay last week

873
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 1: at decent money with all three guys or all three

874
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 1: codies losing. If you wanted to do a you can do.

875
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 1: I don't see either side of this one. But the

876
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: drug test to fill your parlay, you go Usman and

877
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: Blades to both defeat guys who have popped for steroids

878
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: in the UFC or alternatively, if you think you saw

879
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter anymore, then you go Hamdy and COONEYEV

880
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: and just say they're letting them take whatever. Now, Homby

881
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 1: certainly looks like he didn't come off any of the

882
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: things he tested for Cooney IV. You can kind of

883
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 1: see it that maybe he'd let go of some of

884
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 1: his past vices. But yeah, so if you need something silly.

885
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: Those are the two angles either side of it. Really,

886
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: I mean they both make an equal amount of sense,

887
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, I do like this man.

888
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 3: That'll do it.

889
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: For USC betting preview for this week, you could find

890
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: more USC betting content for both Billy and myself on

891
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 2: Action network dot com. And if you would like to

892
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 2: instantly tell some of the bets that we discussed on

893
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 2: today's show, you could look for the click links both

894
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,919
Speaker 2: any podcasts and the video description, or visit actionework dot

895
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 2: com slash bet now. Don't forget to download the free

896
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:38,919
Speaker 2: or winning Action Work app and sign up for Action

897
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 2: Pro f immediate access to expert picks and analysis. Remember

898
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 2: early start time for this card twelve pm Eastern, so

899
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 2: get those bets in early. Bast of the luck with

900
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: all your bets this weekend, enjoy the violence. Thank you

901
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: for listening.

902
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 3: See you next time.

903
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please get umbler responsibly.

904
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

905
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Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

906
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Speaker 3: hundred Gambler