WEBVTT - Former US National Security Council Communications Advisor John Kirby Talks Strait of Hormuz, Iran War

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>So we're back in this same world, stocks in gold, down, oil,

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<v Speaker 2>and interest rates up, with great concern about what might

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<v Speaker 2>happen next in the Middle East, and ahead of our

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<v Speaker 2>conversation with retired Admiral John Kirby, and it's one that

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<v Speaker 2>we've been really looking forward to. I'll just bring you

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<v Speaker 2>back to the cabinet meeting with President Trump. So many questions,

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<v Speaker 2>so few answers, and mixed messages when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>the potential for negotiating a deal. President's saying they're lousy fighters,

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<v Speaker 2>but they're great negotiators. They're begging to work out a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>Went on to say, I don't know if we'll be

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<v Speaker 2>able to do that. I don't know if we're willing

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<v Speaker 2>to do that yet. At the same time, he talked

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<v Speaker 2>about the so called present that he was given by Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>He teased reporters with this a couple of days ago

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<v Speaker 2>and actually identified what that present was. Today.

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<v Speaker 3>Listen, they said, to show you that we're real and

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<v Speaker 3>solid and we're there, We're going to let you have

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<v Speaker 3>eight boats of oil. I said, well, I guess we're

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<v Speaker 3>dealing with the right people. And actually they then apologized

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<v Speaker 3>for something they said, and they said, we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>send two more boats, and it ended up being ten boats.

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<v Speaker 3>And I hope I haven't screwed up your negotiation. I

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<v Speaker 3>thought it was appropriate to say, because I did taunt

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<v Speaker 3>you the other day by saying they're going to give

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<v Speaker 3>us a present.

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<v Speaker 4>So when we considered the Strait of Horror Mows and

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<v Speaker 4>this conflict, we will speak now, as Joe said, with

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<v Speaker 4>someone who is not only experienced having naval experience in

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<v Speaker 4>this theater, but also experience in communicating around armed conflict

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<v Speaker 4>and national security. Retired Real Admiral John Kirby is with us,

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<v Speaker 4>of course, the former White House National Security Communications Advisor

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<v Speaker 4>in the Biden administration. Thank you so much for being

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<v Speaker 4>here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Admira, obviously you know

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<v Speaker 4>this area well. If Iran is giving us gifts of

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<v Speaker 4>allowing vessels to pass through the strait, if they're charging

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<v Speaker 4>others some two million dollars in order to do so,

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<v Speaker 4>one could argue that is a run being able to

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<v Speaker 4>continually exercise control over this waterway. Is the US Navy

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<v Speaker 4>alone able of rest able to wrestle that control back?

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<v Speaker 1>What would it take it would take more than the

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<v Speaker 1>US Navy.

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<v Speaker 5>I did convoy escort operations back in the eighties when

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<v Speaker 5>President Reagan sent us there to do exactly the same thing,

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<v Speaker 5>make sure that the oil.

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<v Speaker 1>Traffic could flow in and out safely.

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<v Speaker 5>And we didn't do it alone back then, and I

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<v Speaker 5>really don't think that the US Navy wants to or

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<v Speaker 5>can do it alone today. And obviously we're the most

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<v Speaker 5>powerful navy in the world. We have a lot of capabilities,

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<v Speaker 5>and certainly our destroyers can conduct these kinds of convoy escorts.

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<v Speaker 5>But it's dangerous, it's slow, it's time consuming, it's resource intensive.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to require a lot more.

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<v Speaker 5>Ships than the US Navy is going to be able

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<v Speaker 5>to afford to that mission. It could take, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>just to get through the Just to go through the

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<v Speaker 5>strait itself, that's a good half a day transit, But

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<v Speaker 5>depending on how long the route is, where you're picking

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<v Speaker 5>the convoy up and where you're dropping it off, I mean,

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<v Speaker 5>it could.

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<v Speaker 1>Take days to a week.

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<v Speaker 5>And with the traffic shut down the way it's been

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<v Speaker 5>the last few weeks, it's going to take a while

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<v Speaker 5>before confidence can be grown enough in the shipping industry

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<v Speaker 5>to get back to anything near the semblance of traffic

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<v Speaker 5>that was going through before this conflict started.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this is incredibly helpful, Admiral. It's great to see you.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a long time since we've heard from you

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<v Speaker 2>here on Bloomberg, and so I'd like to hear a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit more based on your experience and what it

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<v Speaker 2>would take to reopen the straight militarily, because it's been

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<v Speaker 2>suggested that we would need to have a full blown

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<v Speaker 2>stand up, a full blown no fly zone to help

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<v Speaker 2>protect the naval vessels who would be escorting ships. The

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<v Speaker 2>President has talked about volume that he needed the help

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<v Speaker 2>of our NATO allies, which he now says he never

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<v Speaker 2>needed to be able to create the scale. Is that correct?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that the approach the administration should be taking.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, And I was glad to hear the President when

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<v Speaker 5>he did talk about the need for allies and partners

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<v Speaker 5>to chip in.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he was one hundred percent right on that.

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<v Speaker 5>And back to the origin of your question is because

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<v Speaker 5>it's not just about convoys. It's not just about a

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<v Speaker 5>man on man kind of defense, you know, putting ships

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<v Speaker 5>with oil tankers. It's about ISR, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance

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<v Speaker 5>you have to have eyes on over that straight twenty

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<v Speaker 5>four to seven so that you can see anything the

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<v Speaker 5>Iranians might or might not be doing. You need good

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<v Speaker 5>and that requires again a lot of resources from the air.

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<v Speaker 5>You're certainly gonna need seaborne assets. And you need to

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<v Speaker 5>worry about not just the mines. It's not just floating

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<v Speaker 5>mines that the Iranians could put in the water or

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<v Speaker 5>even seabed mines.

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<v Speaker 1>It's their drones.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm mostly concerned about the drones, air drones and sea drones.

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<v Speaker 5>Sea drones can attack by stealth. Air drones can be

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<v Speaker 5>very very hard to knock down. They're very slow, slow moving,

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<v Speaker 5>but they fly close to the level of the water.

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<v Speaker 5>They can be hard to knock it out of the sky.

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<v Speaker 5>And all it takes is one one of those things,

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<v Speaker 5>whether it's a missile, a drone, air or seaborne, and

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<v Speaker 5>of course a mind to get through to shut down

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<v Speaker 5>traffic for potentially weeks. So it's a very difficult thing

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<v Speaker 5>to defend against. It acquire an awful lot of assets

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<v Speaker 5>and an awful lot of time.

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<v Speaker 4>How would two marine expeditionary units and thousands of troops

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<v Speaker 4>from the eighty second Airborne contribute to a mission like

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<v Speaker 4>this or another mission. Admiral, what exactly do you think

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<v Speaker 4>we could be getting ready for as we position these

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<v Speaker 4>thousands of other American service members into this theater.

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<v Speaker 5>Difficult to know, of course, what the administration's planning. But

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<v Speaker 5>if we're just going to talk about the Straits straight,

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<v Speaker 5>the Marines could be helpful if you wanted to go

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<v Speaker 5>after a couple of the small islands that bound the Strait,

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<v Speaker 5>which are in Iranian control and therefore could be used

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<v Speaker 5>by the Iranians as bases to launch drones or even

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<v Speaker 5>small boat attacks. So you could put the Marines on

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<v Speaker 5>those islands and help again restore a little bit of

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<v Speaker 5>confidence in the shipping industry that you've got eyes on,

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<v Speaker 5>that you've got a presence, and that you have the

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<v Speaker 5>ability to defeat Iranian threats. There's also talk, I know

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<v Speaker 5>about maybe using the Marines to assault KRG Island, which

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<v Speaker 5>is that island way up in the north of the Gulf,

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<v Speaker 5>right off the coast of Iran, about about fifteen sixteen

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<v Speaker 5>miles off the coast that they used for infrastructure. That's

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<v Speaker 5>kind of their report of departure and embarkation for all

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<v Speaker 5>the oil that comes out of the Gulf, and so

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<v Speaker 5>there's been talking about maybe the Rings taking that over.

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<v Speaker 1>That is a much taller order.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a bigger island, and I suspect that the Iranians

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<v Speaker 5>are going to want to defend it. In fact, I

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<v Speaker 5>saw press reports today that they're already fortifying carg Island

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<v Speaker 5>and anticipation of some kind of amphibious assault. And then,

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<v Speaker 5>of course there's always the other option here, which when

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<v Speaker 5>you have the eighty second Airborne coming it certainly it

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<v Speaker 5>can't ignore it as an option. Is the potential to

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<v Speaker 5>put US troops on the ground in mainland Iran, in

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<v Speaker 5>the area around the Strait, sort of southern Iran, to

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<v Speaker 5>try to prevent the Iranians from using their coastal facilities

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<v Speaker 5>to attack ships in the Strait. That is a much

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<v Speaker 5>much taller order for the US military and would require

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<v Speaker 5>an awful lot of planning, organization, coordination, and of course time,

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<v Speaker 5>and of course it's very risky, very risky.

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<v Speaker 1>Indeed.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I don't know if these are in some of

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<v Speaker 2>the documents of the classified documents that the President had

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<v Speaker 2>at mar A Lago that mapped out Iran battle plans, Admiral,

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<v Speaker 2>but we are seeing reports today that the Pentagon is

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<v Speaker 2>developing options for what they're calling a final blow, and

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<v Speaker 2>occupying KRG Island is one of them, as well as

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<v Speaker 2>invading Larok, if I'm pronouncing it right, the island that

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<v Speaker 2>helps Iran keep control of the Strait of Horror moves

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<v Speaker 2>and seizing the island of Abu Musa to that same extent.

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<v Speaker 2>Are these battle plans that you have seen for years?

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<v Speaker 2>Are these options that the Pentagon has been looking at

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<v Speaker 2>for other administrations as well well.

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<v Speaker 5>I won't get into the details of operational planning or

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<v Speaker 5>what I was cognizant of when I was in the uniform,

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<v Speaker 5>but I can tell you that the US military has

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<v Speaker 5>long been looking at threats to the Strait by Iran

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<v Speaker 5>and coming up with contingency plans for.

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<v Speaker 1>How to deal with those threats.

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<v Speaker 5>I have no doubt that after I left service, the

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<v Speaker 5>US Military and Central Command continue to refine those plans

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<v Speaker 5>and those contingency operations. I'll leave it to the planners

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<v Speaker 5>to speak about what they're thinking or what they may

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<v Speaker 5>not be able to do. I would just tell you

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<v Speaker 5>that if you're going to introduce ground troops, and that

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<v Speaker 5>certainly appears to be an option, the President has not eschewed.

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<v Speaker 5>There is a whole new level of risk here, and

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<v Speaker 5>quite frankly, a whole new level of potential escalation of

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<v Speaker 5>the war. Once you insert troops on the ground, then

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<v Speaker 5>you're in a different kind of fight than we are

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<v Speaker 5>right now.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, of course, the President hasn't ruled that out entirely.

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<v Speaker 4>And to your point about there being some things that

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<v Speaker 4>you are not able to communicate publicly, obviously things can

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<v Speaker 4>be classified for a reason, and strategic ambiguity can be

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<v Speaker 4>a real strategy. But I wonder if you see the

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<v Speaker 4>administration as kind of straddling the line of not having credibility,

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<v Speaker 4>either as they seem to President Trump or the Secretary

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<v Speaker 4>of State, the Defense Secretary, others aren't necessarily sending a

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<v Speaker 4>consistent message as to what it is we are not

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<v Speaker 4>only trying to do, but what it is we're willing

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<v Speaker 4>to do to get there.

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<v Speaker 5>It's an interesting question, and I think I spent a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of my time focusing on the Pentagon briefings. I

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<v Speaker 5>wish they did more. I wish they had more traditional

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<v Speaker 5>media in the briefing room. But when you listen to

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<v Speaker 5>General Kine, the Chairman of the Joint chief's talk, or

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<v Speaker 5>when you watch the videos by Admiral Cooper, the Central

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<v Speaker 5>Command commander, you do get a clear sense of what

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<v Speaker 5>they believe. Their military objectives are, what they've been ordered

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<v Speaker 5>by the commander in chief to do, and it's pretty simple.

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<v Speaker 1>They're pretty limited objectives.

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<v Speaker 5>But then when you listen to the political messaging, it

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<v Speaker 5>does tend to be all over.

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<v Speaker 1>The map, and it's very hard on any given data.

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<v Speaker 5>Is it unconditional surrender, is it regime change, is it

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<v Speaker 5>just the is it just a nuclear program, or now

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<v Speaker 5>you know, we're talking about maybe going after energy infrastructure

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<v Speaker 5>on the ground in Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of mixed messaging.

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<v Speaker 5>This administration might contend that that's good, that that is

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<v Speaker 5>strategic ambiguity, that that confuses the Iranians. But if you are,

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<v Speaker 5>in fact in the middle of negotiations, if you are

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<v Speaker 5>trying to end this diplomatically, then clarity and concision in

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<v Speaker 5>message is absolutely vital, not just for the public that's

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<v Speaker 5>paying attention like you and I are, but for the Iranians,

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<v Speaker 5>for your enemy, and for your allies Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's not clear to me.

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<v Speaker 5>That the Israelis share the same strategic objectives as the

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<v Speaker 5>United States and here, and they get a vote in

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<v Speaker 5>how and whether this war ends.

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<v Speaker 1>So clarity and.

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<v Speaker 5>Concision and simplicity in the message as you approach negotiations

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<v Speaker 5>is absolutely vital, and I would hope that we'd be

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<v Speaker 5>able to see a little bit more of that than

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<v Speaker 5>we have in the last couple of days.

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<v Speaker 2>Admiral you. Of course, we're appointed Pentagon Press Secretary by

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<v Speaker 2>Chuck Hagel when he was the Defense Secretary, so you

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<v Speaker 2>know what it's like to stand up in front of

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<v Speaker 2>that room and manage a press corps in a very

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<v Speaker 2>sensitive environment here. And I'm curious what you make of

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<v Speaker 2>the posture that this Pentagon has taken when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to journalists. Of course, we just saw a recent court

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<v Speaker 2>ruling in favor of a lawsuit brought by The New

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<v Speaker 2>York Times that struck down the administration's decision to curtail

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<v Speaker 2>the activities of reporters, And in response to that ruling,

0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:14.760
<v Speaker 2>the Pentagon says it's going to be kicking reporters out

0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.079
<v Speaker 2>of the building altogether. They'll build an annex, some sort

0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:20.640
<v Speaker 2>of outhouse on the property where reporters will purportedly be

0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:22.760
<v Speaker 2>allowed to work, although they still won't be allowed to

0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.320
<v Speaker 2>solicit information even if it is not deemed classified. Is

0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:27.720
<v Speaker 2>this all good for the country.

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<v Speaker 5>I think it's not only not good for the country,

0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:33.760
<v Speaker 5>it's not good for the Pentagon. It's not good for

0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:38.280
<v Speaker 5>mister Hegsith and his leadership and for what they're trying

0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:41.200
<v Speaker 5>to communicate about the war efforts. So I really hope

0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:45.359
<v Speaker 5>that they revisit these policies and begin to allow more

0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:48.560
<v Speaker 5>briefings to occur, and more media to be in the

0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.559
<v Speaker 5>briefing room for them, and to have the press back

0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.760
<v Speaker 5>in the building I think is important. Look, when you're

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.440
<v Speaker 5>talking about issues of life and death, war and peace,

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<v Speaker 5>when you're talking about the US military and the billions

0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:03.160
<v Speaker 5>of dollars the American people are spending on their national

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<v Speaker 5>defense and.

0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:06.880
<v Speaker 1>The literally millions of sons and daughters.

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 5>Who are in uniform, the Pentagon has an obligation. It's

0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:13.439
<v Speaker 5>not a privilege, it's not an opportunity. It's an obligation

0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.000
<v Speaker 5>to explain what they're doing with those tax dollars and

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.600
<v Speaker 5>with those young men and women in uniform, and how

0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:23.480
<v Speaker 5>they're using those resources to keep the country safe. It's

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.080
<v Speaker 5>an absolutely sacred obligation. And I always looked at it

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.319
<v Speaker 5>that way from the podium. So did Secretary Hegel when

0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:30.480
<v Speaker 5>I worked for him, Secretary of Austin when I worked

0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.400
<v Speaker 5>for him, that we had an obligation to get up

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:34.839
<v Speaker 5>there and explain ourselves. The other thing I would say

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<v Speaker 5>about access to the press and having the Pentagon Press

0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:41.240
<v Speaker 5>there with you all day long, and they were with

0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 5>me all day long, is it makes you a better spokesman.

0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 5>It makes you a better policy leader because you get

0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 5>to hear what they're hearing from their sources. You get

0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:50.960
<v Speaker 5>to understand what stories they're working on.

0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:51.640
<v Speaker 1>You get an.

0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:54.800
<v Speaker 5>Opportunity to maybe shape their thinking about those stories. And

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 5>I think you also quite critically get a chance to

0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:01.319
<v Speaker 5>make better policy, because there's nothing better for policy than

0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:04.640
<v Speaker 5>to throw it open to the scrutiny of an independent

0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 5>press every day and let them poke holes in it,

0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:09.880
<v Speaker 5>let them ask the tough questions you can. Actually, if

0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.240
<v Speaker 5>you're wise and you're humble, as Secretary of Hagel and

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.600
<v Speaker 5>Austin were, you'll change your mind from time to time.

0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.320
<v Speaker 2>Spoken by someone who's been there, Admiral, it's great to

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.040
<v Speaker 2>see you. We'd like to stay in touch with you

0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.760
<v Speaker 2>as this entire story progresses. John Kirby, retired rear admiral,

0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 2>former White House National Security COMMS advisor, and a fascinating

0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:29.439
<v Speaker 2>conversation you're only going to hear today on Bloomberg