1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube bed Mars. 6 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: With Hard Treat Right now and publishing. And with that question, 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: we welcome all of you worldwide. Ever Morse, welcome to Bloomberg. 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining. 9 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 3: Us, Thanks for having me. It's good to hear you again. 10 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 2: Ed. I just want to focus on it Ran. I 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 2: think there's a huge misunderstanding of Persia, the simplistic stuff 12 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 2: in the media as well. If you were to speak 13 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: to the president or to every American today, what's the 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: greatest misconception we get wrong about Iranian oil and gas? 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 3: I don't know what the misconceptions can be. I think 16 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 3: people think that Iran is just overflowing with oil and gas, 17 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 3: and that may be true in theory, but it's not 18 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 3: true in practice. So they've had a stifling of their 19 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 3: oil production, they've had a disaster in their gas production, 20 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 3: despite the fact that they're sitting on probably the second 21 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 3: largest center reserves in the world, and actually what might 22 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 3: do them in has been the Israeli bombing of their 23 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:27,759 Speaker 3: natural gas facilities. 24 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: Paul as the smartest question of the day. Can there 25 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: be a regime change? I mean, let's go back to 26 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine. Paul's too young to remember this, but 27 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 2: you and I the absolute shock of moving from the 28 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 2: shah over to a theocracy. To be polite about it, 29 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: can we have a regime change? 30 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 3: As Paul ass well, certainly the Israelis are aiming for 31 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 3: a regime change. Whether they get it now or whether 32 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 3: it happens at another time remains to be seen. The 33 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: underlying position of the government is very, very weak. They 34 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 3: do not enjoy the legitimate of the public. They do 35 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 3: not enjoy happiness in the public. They have unbelievably high inflation, 36 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 3: reaching forty percent or higher. They have a currency that 37 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 3: remains in a world of depreciating currencies. They have no 38 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 3: access to health and other things that people who are 39 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 3: middle class want, and there are a lot of them. 40 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 3: So we have a government that's a combination, a very 41 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 3: strong combination of elected officials, a theocracy headed by somebody 42 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 3: who certainly is going to be not with us. Very 43 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 3: long given his health situation in his age, and it 44 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: has the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is not exactly 45 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 3: the most popular group in the world in terms of 46 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 3: governments or governance. So yes, I'd say that there's weakness 47 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 3: in the governance structure, but saying it's going to be 48 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 3: overthrown overnight is another matter. 49 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 4: What is the role of open opec plus in times 50 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 4: of these types of risk geopolitical risks in the Middle East? 51 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:06,959 Speaker 5: What are they doing well? 52 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 3: Opech Plus is a bunch of countries and their main 53 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 3: objective has been to put a floor under prices. They 54 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 3: are in a complicated position at the moment. That complication 55 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 3: results from on the geopolitical side, all of the major 56 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 3: countries having new relationships with Iran, that includes Russia, that 57 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 3: includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where China has pushed 58 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 3: them to normalize relationships. They are articulating a position of criticism. 59 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 3: I would call it much more than that of Israel, 60 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 3: for it's what they call aggressive acts, but they want 61 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 3: to stay out of it, and they have a more 62 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 3: complicated situation at hand. So we have to remember that 63 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: before this started, before that spike we saw last Friday 64 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 3: in oil prices. They are on the one hand, concerned 65 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: about weakness in the oil market, and on the other 66 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 3: hand pushing for weakness in the oil market. They continue 67 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 3: to want to push for a weakness for a variety 68 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 3: of complicated reasons for Bloomberg. 69 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 2: Our conversation of the day Edward Morse was this of 70 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 2: Princeton tangentially with Rice University, many other institutions over the years, 71 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: and of course the Council on Foreign Relations with Hartree, 72 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 2: doctor Morris. As simply as I can make it, you 73 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 2: were teaching at Princeton in the middle seventies and the 74 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 2: State Department called, and you had the privilege in nineteen 75 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: seventy eight of really driving forward our energy policy. I think, 76 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 2: I guess, I say, what would you say to Secretary Rubio? 77 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 2: But I'm not sure what Secret Rubio's doing other than 78 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 2: watching a parade. What would you say to the president now? 79 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 2: Given our original diplomacy and foreign policy. 80 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 3: Well, actually some of the things that the government is 81 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 3: doing now are laudatory. And you know, the president had 82 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 3: and he created, he had the view of energy dominance 83 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 3: as the international position of the US, and he doesn't 84 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: have to fight hard for energy dominance, even though it's 85 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 3: a difficult word to try to digest, but the US 86 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 3: is the largest oil producing country in the world. The 87 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 3: US oil production total liquids production is greater than the 88 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 3: combined production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. 89 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 2: So I need to interrupt. This is too important. Are 90 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 2: you critical of the Iranian diplomacy of the United States 91 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 2: is associated with President Obama, Secretary of State Kerrie and 92 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 2: Wendy Sherman as well. Are you're critical of that era 93 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 2: of six, seven, eight, ten years ago. 94 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 3: I'm critical of one thing that I think looms very large, 95 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 3: and John Carey's name is associated with it. When we 96 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 3: had the push for a clean energy world and the 97 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,679 Speaker 3: US was in a leadership position on it, we also 98 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 3: had view official view that we not only want to 99 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 3: get rid of oil and the emissions from burning oil 100 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 3: as a transport fuel, but we have the view that 101 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 3: we should get rid of natural gas as a fossil fuel, 102 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 3: and that really set us back because fossil fuels, we 103 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 3: can't get to net zero without actually using a lot 104 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 3: of natural gas. We have to use it carefully. We 105 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 3: have to make sure that methane emissions are controlled, but 106 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 3: not allowing pipelines to be built for natural gas. Not 107 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: pushing for natural gas in the overall displacement of oil 108 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 3: and discouraging oil's use was a mistake in my mind 109 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 3: and set us back on the road to a cleaner world. 110 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 3: And when we come to natural gas. By the way, 111 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 3: the US is the largest producer in the world. We 112 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 3: have the largest exporter in the world, both of oil 113 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 3: and natural gas. And if you look at the next 114 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 3: five years, the US is going to keep that up 115 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,559 Speaker 3: and remain the largest exporter with the largest growth fifty 116 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 3: percent of the growth of gas utilization and production, but 117 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 3: we're going to be exporting most of it is coming 118 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 3: from the US. It's a very important tool for economics 119 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 3: and for the energy transition. 120 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 4: Does the US play any type of role visa vi 121 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 4: Opek now that the US is not only energy independent 122 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 4: but the largest producer. 123 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 3: Sure, well, we have a complicated role to play. The role, 124 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 3: by definition is that we stopped the Saudis and OPEC 125 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 3: from having an effect of reducing their production. You may 126 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 3: remember several years ago when the Saudis and seven other 127 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: countries aid, actually to begin with down to seven other countries, 128 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 3: said we're going to put out voluntary cuts. They've cut 129 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 3: two point two million barrels a day several years ago, 130 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 3: and they don't know how to put that oil back 131 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 3: in the market, So they're now trying to put that 132 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 3: oil back in the market. Two point two million barrels 133 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 3: a day in the market with very limited demand is 134 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: hard to do without lowering prices. Sadi Arabian and the 135 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 3: UAE know that Trump wants to lower prices, and they're 136 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 3: they're they're using their own desire to reduce the capacity 137 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 3: of other countries to produce oil, even the United States 138 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 3: by closing more closely their relationship with the US. So 139 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 3: it's complicated. What they want to do should anger the US, 140 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: but it's pleasing Trump. 141 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 5: The straight of hor. 142 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,560 Speaker 4: Moves, I think we've all of our listeners and viewers 143 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 4: have brilliant brilliant. 144 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 2: Have you swum the straight of Hormos. 145 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 3: I haven't tried to do that, but I've seen it. 146 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 5: That's important for global oil, isn't it. 147 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 4: And what's the risk that that straight of hor moves 148 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 4: may be compromised by right? 149 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, let me put numbers on it. So twenty 150 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 3: plus million barrels a day flow through the straight of 151 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 3: horm moves every single day. Wow, that is not quite 152 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 3: half of global oil flows, but you know it's more 153 00:08:55,840 --> 00:09:00,959 Speaker 3: than a third. And the alternative roots are pipeline from 154 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 3: the east to the west coast of Saudi Arabia and 155 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: a pipeline through fujaira part of the UAE, which sticks 156 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 3: up and creates the Straight of horm moves, but you 157 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 3: can avoid it by a pipeline that they have going 158 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 3: through it. The combined two pipelines is eight million a day. 159 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 3: So the best that we can do is limit if 160 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 3: the straight is closed to a disruption of fourteen million 161 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 3: a day, that would bring prices to one hundred and thirty. 162 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:26,959 Speaker 3: Who knows what the number would be, but it would happen, 163 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 3: and it would take months to clear the Strait of 164 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 3: Horn moves. So the issue is not the importance of 165 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 3: the Strait of horm Moose so much as are the 166 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 3: Iranians going to dare to do this? And the Chinese 167 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 3: have absolutely said don't you dare, And the Russians have 168 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 3: said don't you dare. And the Russians also have an 169 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 3: interest in the Strait of Horme moves because part of 170 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 3: the Russian exports of the world are exports to Saudi Arabia, 171 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 3: and here we come to the complicated summer where we 172 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 3: have a record amount of crude burn in Saudi Arabia 173 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 3: and the rest of the Middle East, and they need 174 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 3: dirty oil from somewhere else to enable them to produce 175 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 3: and export the oil. We estimate that the increase in 176 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 3: oil demand this summer is about a million barrels a 177 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 3: day because it's the hotest summer on record, and that's 178 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 3: another bind. But I think there's a lot of pressure 179 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 3: to Hey to say that the Iranian's hands off the 180 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 3: straight open wars, don't you, dare? 181 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 2: Edward Morris one final question, with great honor to your 182 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 2: decades at the Wilson Institute at Princeton. In all Robert D. 183 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 2: Kaplan talks about the people of Persia. You've talked about 184 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 2: them as being the legitimate middle class and sophistication of 185 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 2: the Middle East. Do the people of Persia have a 186 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 2: voice in this, as Paul mentioned earlier, where they find 187 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 2: something after the Kamandie theocracy. 188 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 3: They do, and they don't. They're afraid to have generalized protests, 189 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 3: even if it's sort we had in the United States 190 00:10:55,840 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 3: over the weekend. We have clear evidence that the bombing 191 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 3: in the north has led to a massive exodus of people. 192 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 3: So there are people who are unhappy. Do they want 193 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 3: to be ruled by Netanyahu? 194 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 2: No? So what's a worse prescription for the United States 195 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 2: to assist the people of Persia? 196 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 3: I think the US should be doing what it's doing, 197 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 3: namely staying out of it, telling them both that they 198 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 3: want to negotiate an agreement on Iran's nuclear future. And 199 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 3: I think there is something to that, because Iran is 200 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 3: in a desperate getting to be in a desperate position. 201 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 3: They have logically failed. They have visibly failed to protect 202 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 3: the people of Iran. They visibly failed to protect themselves 203 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 3: as a government, given the failure of the proxies and 204 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 3: the way the Israelis eliminated them. So I think it's 205 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 3: inevitable that there's going to be an agreement in the US. 206 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 3: I think needs to have its hands in that agreement 207 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 3: to make it work. 208 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 2: Doctor marsh thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. 209 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,839 Speaker 2: Edward Marris of Hartree, of course, definitive on the Mediterranean 210 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 2: and our hydrocarbons in America. 211 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast Catch Us live 212 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple, 213 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 214 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 215 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 2: Henria Trace joins US right now at Veta Partners. Henriette. 216 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 2: I really want to stay in the Eastern Mediterranean because 217 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 2: that's where the news is. But I guess I've got 218 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 2: to ask, how will President Trump be greeted by the 219 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 2: G six. 220 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 6: That's a very valid question. 221 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 7: I have to assume that there's going to be a 222 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 7: lot of skepticism around him, thinking that Vladimir Putin is 223 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 7: going to be the chief arbiter of negotiations and peace 224 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 7: between Iran and Israel. 225 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 6: That has to be first and foremost one of their questions. 226 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 7: As we are on the US side sending tankers and 227 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 7: interceptors over across the Atlantic right now to keep the peace, 228 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 7: should we ever get to that often and fall again? 229 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 2: The USS nimics moving from Asia West to the Middle. 230 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 5: East, absolutely, Henriette. 231 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 4: What's the feeling in Washington, DC these days about the 232 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 4: role that the US either is playing or may not 233 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 4: be playing fully enough in the Middle East? 234 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 5: What's the what are the folks in DC? Thinking? 235 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 6: Well? 236 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 7: As usual the Democratic Party is sort of spinning its 237 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 7: wheels on this, but the Republican Party is really trying 238 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 7: to come up with a cohesive position around whatever it 239 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 7: is that the president's platform is. We see in Washington 240 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 7: that the Republican Party very much, especially when it comes 241 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,719 Speaker 7: to foreign policy, takes its direction from the President. So 242 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,560 Speaker 7: first and foremost, i'd say that the sanctions bill that 243 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 7: we had pending towards Russia is off the table. 244 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 6: For right now. 245 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 7: Not only can you not do that when gas prices spike, 246 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 7: which is a risk that we have at this juncture, 247 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 7: but I think any pressure on the administration from a 248 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,559 Speaker 7: let me force your hand on political and foreign. 249 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 6: Policy is not what they're going to do. 250 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 7: So that sanctions bill that's fun answered by about eighty 251 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 7: two members of the Senate and had clearance in the 252 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 7: House is. 253 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 6: Not going to move. 254 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 7: I think is the first casualty as they wait to 255 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,599 Speaker 7: see how things play out over the next couple of 256 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 7: days with Israel, whether it escalates and things get. 257 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 6: More tense or not. But they're probably going to just 258 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 6: pivot to the tax bill at this point. 259 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 4: That's kind of where I want to go, Henriette. I mean, 260 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 4: I guess we have the G seven, we have the 261 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 4: Mid East. There's a lot of issues out there for 262 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 4: folks to focus on and its administration to focus on. 263 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 4: But the folks in Congress, they got to get a 264 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 4: tax bill moved. 265 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 5: Where are we on that. There's a lot of legislation there. 266 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 7: Yeah, So tonight at around six o'clock, the Senate Finance Committee. 267 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 6: Is going to release a portion of their bill. It's 268 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 6: not going to be comprehensive. They're going to keep the 269 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 6: stickiest stuff for later. 270 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 7: That includes the solid PAP as I know you guys 271 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 7: like to talk about. The tax bill is going to 272 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 7: start to become public and it's going to get slammed. 273 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 7: And the thing that's really tough about this for members 274 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 7: is that they only have a week three day week 275 00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 7: reset three day week work schedule today this Massa, So 276 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 7: they're only going to be here tonight tomorrow on Wednesday, 277 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 7: and then they're out of town. 278 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 6: So releasing legislation and that kind of. 279 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 7: An environment is tricky because then you put sunlight on 280 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 7: it and you leave, and that allows whoever is your 281 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 7: distractor to come in and spend the next five straight 282 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 7: days smashing the legislation, which is going to be what 283 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 7: happens here. 284 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 2: We continue with Henrietta Treys of Aida Partners. Good morning 285 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 2: on your commute across the nation. Good morning, and Henrietta 286 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 2: Treys Louisiana as well, Serious XEM Channel one twenty one. 287 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 2: Good morning, particularly across Canada in ben or Banff. Okay, 288 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 2: we're gonna go Banf. We'll see David Girl be with 289 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 2: us later. And a gun on YouTube. We're just humbled 290 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 2: by the YouTube build out. I just really can't say 291 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 2: enough about that. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast, Henrietta, I want 292 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 2: to pause. And this came into my puny head this 293 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 2: weekend watching golf and watching Devers in a Red Sox 294 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 2: uniform and all that. Hendrietta, I think we have three wars. 295 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 2: We have a real war in Ukraine. We have a 296 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: real war spanning Israel and Persia, and I guess Gaza 297 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: is a sort of kind of like war as well. 298 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 2: Have we ever done this in America? Had a three 299 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: front war? 300 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 7: You know, I would say that we haven't had a 301 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 7: three front war with a president who has. 302 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 6: Said I alone can fix it. I think that's maybe 303 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 6: the distinguishing feature here. 304 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 7: I was with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy recently, and he 305 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 7: said the reason that we voted for Trump is because 306 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 7: nobody would dare mess with anybody and nobody would step 307 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 7: out a line as long as President Trump is in office. 308 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 6: And obviously that's not the piece. 309 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 7: There's no peace in Ukraine, there's no piece in and 310 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 7: it's expanding in Israel to Ran and I think that's 311 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 7: probably the core of the problem here. 312 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 2: How is the Pentagon in a harms way? How are 313 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 2: they dealing with a two and a half front war. 314 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 7: Right and also preparing for whatever it is that's going 315 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 7: on with China. I think as we watch all this 316 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 7: stuff that keeps the NSA up at night, is really 317 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 7: what is China seeing from all this and what. 318 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 2: It Wait wait, I got to interrupt. How can the 319 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,439 Speaker 2: NSA be up at night when Marco Rubio's yawning on 320 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 2: the parade stand he's running NSC Maybe. 321 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 6: Because he's up at night. 322 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 7: I don't know, but you know, certainly the expansion here 323 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 7: and the tariffs that are on across. 324 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 6: The globe and China, as you know, the core focus. 325 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 7: I'll go back to that sanctions, but we were going 326 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:33,640 Speaker 7: to do a secondary sanctions package potentially on China and Iran. 327 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 6: To help contain Russia. 328 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 7: And that's plainly not in the cards if gas prices 329 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 7: are rising. So I think those are other pieces that 330 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 7: you know, at least former NSA officials have been very 331 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 7: concerned about. I assume Rubio is as well. 332 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 4: The good folks down in Washington, DC, collectively, Henriette, how 333 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 4: do they feel about I mean, it seems like inflation's 334 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 4: just right over the horizon, whether it's rising oil prices 335 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 4: coming out of the mid East, the tariffs, sang, all 336 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 4: these types of things. Boy, it really runs the risk 337 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 4: for higher inflation. I wonder if our good friends in 338 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 4: Washington are aware of that. 339 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that they are. 340 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 7: They try not to talk about it downplay. There's a 341 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 7: really good example coming from Ron Johnson, who has a 342 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 7: lot of negative things to say about the tax bill, 343 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 7: and he's been told by the President, Look, you can 344 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 7: have negative opinions about the tax bill, but don't bring 345 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:24,479 Speaker 7: them up in public. 346 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 6: And I think that's a lot of what you're seeing 347 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:26,479 Speaker 6: from members. 348 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 7: They end up shifting and deflecting onto other topics. So 349 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 7: whenever you have a conversation about inflation, they quickly pivot to, oh, 350 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 7: well this will wrap up, or oh, well, this is 351 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 7: not going to be extended a lot of you know, 352 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 7: we'll be getting deals soon. 353 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:39,360 Speaker 6: On the tirefront. 354 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,879 Speaker 7: And the reality on the tariffront I can't stress enough 355 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 7: is that tariffs are going to rise from here for 356 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 7: many countries, most nations, we're going to get a permanent 357 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 7: flat rate that could be between ten and twenty five percent, 358 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 7: and then other tier rates are going to rise on Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, 359 00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 7: sector specific. 360 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 6: There's a lot more to come. 361 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 2: We got to help you, Andre Atta it with your research. 362 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 2: You're going around the room quickly. We go to surveillance. 363 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: Costco correspond to Lisa Matail. Lisa Matail, is there inflation 364 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 2: at Costco? 365 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 8: Yes, there is, believe me. 366 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 2: What's an item that's killing you? 367 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 9: The item that's killing me? It's probably no. The eggs 368 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,719 Speaker 9: have gotten better. Actually I have to do say that 369 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 9: produce but yeah, no the meats. 370 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 2: The meats, Yeah, meats. I don't even need anymore too. So, 371 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 2: Michael Barr, where's the inflation in the barhouse? Besides you 372 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 2: losing money into San Francisco forty nine ers. I'm just 373 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:27,959 Speaker 2: going to come out and say it. 374 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 4: Liquor, Yeah, sure, yeah, it really is is the beverage 375 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 4: of your choice? 376 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 2: The beverage of my choice? Man? It is going on? Oh, 377 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:35,880 Speaker 2: where's the inflation? 378 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 4: I just paid over three dollars a gallon yesterday, which 379 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 4: is first time. 380 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 2: Let's go there, Hendriana Treys. I mean, Paul goes to 381 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 2: the heart of the matter that matters. If Capitol Hill doesn't. 382 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 6: It, it absolutely does for me. You know, I'm a 383 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 6: good millennial. 384 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 7: I don't even shop at Starbucks, and now I'm paying 385 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 7: twenty dollars for a bag of coffee at grinds. 386 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 6: My gears that. 387 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 2: I have a big bottle of olive oil thirty one dollars. 388 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 2: It used to be twenty three bucks. It's not a 389 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 2: fancy one. It's not like some It's not like what 390 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 2: Lisa has. You know where you. 391 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 5: Can't put master Italian. 392 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: Hendrita Trace, brilliant. Thank you for the brief this morning, Henrietta, quickly, 393 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 2: I hope she's not gone? 394 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 5: Is it? Is it? 395 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 2: Ban or Ben? 396 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 5: Oh? 397 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 6: My pay grade? 398 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 2: Okay, thank you, Hadria Trace, Thank you so much, Greatly 399 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 2: appreciated Invader partners. 400 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 401 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 402 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 403 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 404 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 405 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 2: Paul Bucks when he says, get the guy from Duka 406 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,120 Speaker 2: and the guy with the bass violin in the background, 407 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 2: a cella whatever it is. But what's really important here 408 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: is Cam Harvey, professor at Duke's Business School, is incredibly 409 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 2: informed about the stuff tangential to our monetary policy. 410 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 4: Paul cam Harvey joins this year Professor of Finance at 411 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 4: the Fucal School of Business at Duke University. Hey, Cam, 412 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 4: we're going to hear from the FED on Wednesday. I 413 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 4: know you've been critical of this FED for looking I 414 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 4: guess maybe a little bit too much in the rear 415 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 4: view mirror. 416 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 5: What do you expect to hear from the FED this week? 417 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 10: So almost nothing, and it's going to be very, very frustrating. 418 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 10: And there's a lot of pressure on the FED from 419 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 10: the political side. So the President has called for like 420 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 10: one hundred basis point cut. The Vice President has accused 421 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:44,479 Speaker 10: the Chair of the FED of conducting monetary malpractice. So 422 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 10: this is kind of serious sort of schism between the 423 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 10: executive branch and the supposedly independent FED. So the way 424 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 10: that I look at it, and this is nothing new, 425 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 10: I'm actually in favor of aggressive cuts, and indeed I've 426 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 10: been in favor of cuts for over a year. So 427 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:14,679 Speaker 10: I do believe the rate is too high and we 428 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 10: need to fix that. And the reason I think is 429 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 10: fairly evident. So we are in a structural deficit situation 430 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 10: where we've got a one point nine trillion dollar deficit 431 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 10: at a time when we've got decent economic growth, record 432 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 10: low unemployment, inflation with a two handle. That doesn't make 433 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 10: any sense. That might make sense to have a one 434 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 10: point nine trillion dollar deficit if we're in a crisis 435 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 10: or a war, but we're not. So something has to happen. 436 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 10: And we've discovered painfully that cutting the expenditures like dojing 437 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 10: is not going to get us there. It's not going 438 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 10: to get us to like a balanced budget. So something 439 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 10: needs to be done. And what is the easiest thing 440 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 10: in terms of lack of pain, is increase growth. When 441 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 10: you grow faster, the revenues come in. You don't need 442 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 10: to increase that tax rate when you grow faster, revenues 443 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 10: come in, so we need a boost in terms of growth, 444 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 10: and one way to facilitate that is to reduce the 445 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 10: Fed Fund's rate. That that's a good thing for growth. 446 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 4: So we had some inflation data over the last week 447 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 4: at PPI. CPI doesn't seem to be creeping into the 448 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 4: economy just yet. I know a lot of folks were 449 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 4: concerned about tariffs and their inflationary pressures. How do you 450 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 4: think about tariffs and the impact on maybe economic growth, 451 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 4: maybe inflation. 452 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 10: So tariffs are a tax, so when we increase taxes, 453 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 10: that's bad for growth. But we also need to realize 454 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 10: that imports are a fairly small part of our economy. 455 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 10: So only fourteen percent of GDP is linked to imports, 456 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 10: so we can absorb and increase in tariffs without too 457 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 10: much damage. Nevertheless, it's damage. So in the ideal scenario, 458 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 10: and I said this months ago, the ideal scenario is 459 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 10: that this leads to a situation where there is a 460 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 10: level playing field and terriffs are actually reduced. And importantly, 461 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 10: it's not just terriffs, it's the non tariff barriers. So 462 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 10: the headline numbers kind of mask what is going on. 463 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,119 Speaker 10: And if we've got a situation like that that could 464 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 10: also boost economic growth. I know it's chaotic right now, 465 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 10: and I'm not a tariff person, but we need growth. 466 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 2: I want to go back to your seminal work, Kim Harvey, 467 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 2: Consumption recovering expectations of consumption growth? Can you aggregate America? Now? 468 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,640 Speaker 2: Are we so paralyzed in our bellism that there's two 469 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 2: Americas out there? 470 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 10: So it's a great point. And most of our models 471 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 10: and economics have what's called a representative consumer, which is 472 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 10: code for everybody's the same, and that's just not the 473 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 10: case anymore. So we're very heterogeneous. And I've argued that 474 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:41,400 Speaker 10: that part of kind of the decreasing volatility. 475 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 2: Of the business cycles. 476 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 10: So our business cycles are way milder than in the past, 477 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 10: even considering the global financial crisis and COVID, So they're 478 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 10: less frequent and they're milder. 479 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: And this is. 480 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 10: Because there are a couple of classes of consumers at least, 481 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,239 Speaker 10: and there's one class that is very well off and 482 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 10: they just don't respond. So inflation goes up, there's nobod 483 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 10: deal to them. They just buy. 484 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 2: And so I got time for one more question. We 485 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 2: got to move on there with breaking news, including a 486 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,439 Speaker 2: presidential tweet. Kim Harvey, I can think the only equivalent 487 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,719 Speaker 2: of Laurence Summers. A few years ago. You had a 488 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 2: doctoral dissertation with not one, not two, but three Nobel 489 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 2: Prize winners. You had to sit in a room with Fama, Merton, Miller, 490 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 2: and Hanson. Is that true? Yes? How did you survive that? 491 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,800 Speaker 10: So they did not have the Nobels when they were 492 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 10: on my committee? There were many of my professors did 493 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 10: not either, but yet it was it was a challenge. Indeed, 494 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 10: my strategy and one of my seminars was just to 495 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 10: stand back and let them go at it. 496 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 2: You're talking about would you have been benefited by the 497 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 2: AI your students are using a duke right now? 498 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 10: Oh, everybody will benefit from that. Yeah, definitely. So it's 499 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 10: a great tool for kind of enhancing your research. It's 500 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 10: like a research assistant. It's remarkable. 501 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 2: You never have a time. Kim Harvey, thank you so 502 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 2: much out of Canada with his graduate work at Chicago 503 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 2: and folks, I'll tell you the privilege you're talking to you, 504 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 2: Gene Fom about Chicago economics over the years at Lars 505 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 2: Hansen to an extent is a noted Kim Harvey there 506 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 2: of Paul Sweeney's Duke University. 507 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 508 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 509 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us 510 00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg and. 511 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 2: All for all of you nationwide. We are transfixed in 512 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 2: New York City by a mayoral race. There is an 513 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 2: election in November, which months ago was like, no big 514 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 2: deal because there's twelve Republicans in New York City. But 515 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: all of a sudden, it's like, Okay, this could be 516 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 2: a really interesting election because this candidate is an independent. 517 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 2: This one's an independent. There'll be four even five people 518 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 2: on the ballot. Governor Cromo was in the other day. 519 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,640 Speaker 2: As a disclaimer, I want to make clear that he's 520 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 2: received the endorsement of mister Bloomberg. Michael Bloomberg is the 521 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 2: owner of various sundry Bloomberg events, including Bloomberg LP in, 522 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Television, in radio. Whitney Tilson joins us right now 523 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 2: after surviving the race. Is mister Krome said. Whitney Tilson 524 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 2: is a financial guy in a hedge fund community and such, 525 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 2: and has gone through the public process of being a candidate. 526 00:28:54,360 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 2: This word cross endors in rank voting. Can you cross 527 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 2: endorse Governor Cuomo this morning? 528 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 11: Yes, And it's not a cross endorsement because I haven't 529 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 11: asked for his endorsement in return. But at the on 530 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 11: the mayoral stage at the last debate on Thursday night, 531 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 11: when asked, I was the only candidate who was willing 532 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 11: to say who I would vote. 533 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 2: No, just that why are you the only candidate that's 534 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 2: lining up buying Cuomo? Jessica did in the Queens. I 535 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 2: believe it was as. 536 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 11: Well because the rest of the candidates are more progressive 537 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 11: lefty types, and Cuomo and I are the only two 538 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 11: people in the moderate lane. So I'm happy to throw 539 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,160 Speaker 11: my support behind him and just say, don't rank zoo 540 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 11: on Mom Dannie, who's the far lefty thirty three year 541 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 11: old inexperienced Democratic socialists. 542 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 4: Whitney, crime, homelessness. If you ask I think the average 543 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 4: New Yorker those two topics would be at or near 544 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:56,719 Speaker 4: the top of their list of concerns. 545 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 11: Yes, second only to housing and affordability. Yep, do you 546 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 11: deal with that issue? 547 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 5: Brobably tied together. 548 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 11: Well, it's a tough one. There's no quick solution. But 549 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 11: a bunch of legislation passed five years ago that effectively 550 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 11: decriminalized all low level crime. Not surprisingly, shocker, you had 551 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 11: a huge increase and New Yorker has got upset and 552 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 11: we're in the process slowly, too slowly, rolling some of 553 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,360 Speaker 11: that back. But it demoralized police and we've were down 554 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 11: to a thirty four year low in the number of 555 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 11: police officers. The good news, however, is that on his 556 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 11: fourth attempt is fourth police commissioner in three years. Eric Adams, 557 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 11: our current mayor, was sort of forced to hire a 558 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 11: competent person, Jessica Tish, who has came in in November. 559 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 11: She's done a great job, got more police out in 560 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 11: the streets started and forcing quality of life stuff. The 561 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 11: murder rate is down twenty eight percent year to date, 562 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 11: shootings are down twenty one percent. Almost every type of 563 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 11: crime is down smaller amounts, but so I'm hopeful that 564 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 11: we're going in the right direction for the first time 565 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 11: in five years. 566 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 4: Housing affordability top of the list. Been in this city 567 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 4: for a long time. It's always been an issue. 568 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 5: Everybody wants to come to New York. And we know why. 569 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 4: I don't care what's going on in the world or 570 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 4: what's going on with the city. People keep flooding into 571 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 4: the city. You see every single day. How do we 572 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 4: house these folks? 573 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,320 Speaker 11: Yeah, I should say one more just got added to 574 00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 11: that list yesterday. My youngest daughter graduated from college in 575 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 11: Minnesota on Saturday, and she has already accepted a job 576 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 11: back in New York. My third daughter, all three of 577 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 11: them are now back in New York working building their 578 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,720 Speaker 11: lives here. It's the greatest city in the world, but 579 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 11: housing is key. My youngest daughter is going to be 580 00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 11: living at home because she can't afford on a teacher's 581 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 11: salary to live in New York. So what do you 582 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 11: have to do to do about it? For words, if 583 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 11: I were to summarize unleash the private sector, all the 584 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 11: candidates have their various proposals because voters are screaming about 585 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 11: this issue. I'm the only one who said there's not 586 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 11: primarily a governmental solution. Trust me, the private sector wants 587 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 11: to invest in the richest city in the world with 588 00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 11: a sixty year low vacancy rate. But we've just put 589 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 11: up so much the zoning ranks environmental ranks, the city 590 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 11: bureaucracy where they have to hire expediters to try and 591 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 11: navigate the city bureaucracy. We've got to clear that out 592 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,200 Speaker 11: and shorten what's a four year process on average down 593 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 11: to a two year process, which is what it was 594 00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 11: under Mike Bloomberg. And the difference in two years and 595 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 11: four years to project start to finish in a higher 596 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 11: interest rate environment like today, is a viable project or 597 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 11: a non viable project? 598 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 2: I look at it. I brought this up with Governor Cuomo. 599 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 2: The election to ed Cotch One where Mario Cuomo, Governor 600 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 2: Cuomo's father took Staten Island, and I believe Brooklyn I 601 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 2: can't remember, but Doo took Bronx, and you know Bella 602 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 2: Abzug took Manhattan, but ed catch one. With this Democratic primary, 603 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,320 Speaker 2: how does Whitney Tilson frame the first Tuesday of November 604 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 2: all of a sudden, It's complex. 605 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 11: Yes, it's particularly complex is we have the primary coming 606 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 11: up in eight days and ranked choice, so voters can 607 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,480 Speaker 11: rank up to five candidates. The way the polling looks 608 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 11: right now is whatever round of ranked choice, as as 609 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,960 Speaker 11: other candidates are eliminated, it's going to come down to 610 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 11: Andrew Cuomo, the former governor, and Zoron Mamdannie, the thirty 611 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 11: three year old sort of phenom who's run a great 612 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 11: campaign but is very dangerously in experience, has radical views. 613 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,240 Speaker 11: I'll just point your listeners read the New York Times 614 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 11: editorial today. New York Times, the liberal lefty paper of record, 615 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,080 Speaker 11: just destroyed Zoron Mamdanni and their editorial today. He said 616 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 11: he's completely unqualified, his ideas are extremists, would be the 617 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 11: ruin of this city is effectively what they just said. 618 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 11: So they said, don't rank mom Donnie, and then they said, 619 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,959 Speaker 11: whatever your feelings are about Cuomo, rank him somewhere. They 620 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 11: had a mixed view of Cuomo. And then they said, 621 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,800 Speaker 11: Whitney Tilson is the heir to Mike Bloomberg, and if 622 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 11: you're a moderate, vote for him. So that was I 623 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 11: was thrilled by that. 624 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 2: What are we going to see in November if Whitney 625 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 2: Tilson doesn't get traction. 626 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 11: Well I will. I am only running in the Democratic primary, 627 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 11: and realistically, with eight days left, there's a very narrow 628 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 11: path for me to win the primary. If I don't 629 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,160 Speaker 11: win the primary, I will not be there in November November. 630 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 11: What's interesting is is both Mom, Donnie and Cuomo, regardless 631 00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 11: of which one wins and loses, is likely to be 632 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 11: in November. And then you have the current mayor, Eric 633 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,800 Speaker 11: Adams Curtis Sliwa on the Republican side in all likelihood, 634 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 11: and it's not ranked choice, So you could have a 635 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,839 Speaker 11: scenario where someone gets forty percent and becomes mayor with 636 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:33,359 Speaker 11: only a minority of the vote because three or four 637 00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 11: other candidates could split the remaining sixty. 638 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,839 Speaker 4: We've seen some very troubling images for many people coming 639 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 4: out of Los Angeles as the deportation a plan with 640 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 4: President Trump ramps up. What's your view and how New 641 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 4: York should deal with it? How how would you deal 642 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 4: with that? 643 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 2: This is great, Paul, thank you for bringing us up. 644 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 2: Whitney Tilson, one of our staff had a close friend's 645 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 2: husband picked up this weekend in New York City. Yeah. 646 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 11: I strongly support New York status as a sanctuary city. 647 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,400 Speaker 11: I do not think we should be cooperating anyway with 648 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 11: the Trump administrations lawless, I would argue campaign of terror 649 00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,879 Speaker 11: against our immigrant communities. We we, though, as Democrats, need 650 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 11: to be smart and not lose the narrative and not 651 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 11: appear to be or in reality be protecting the very 652 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 11: small number of people who are here illegally, who have 653 00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,359 Speaker 11: joined gangs and are making our city less safe. So 654 00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 11: there needs to be limited cooperation there. But you know, 655 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 11: I was asked on the debate stage, what would you 656 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 11: do you know if Los Angeles, you know, protests came here, 657 00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 11: and I'd be like, I'd get out in front. I'd 658 00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,239 Speaker 11: be out there protesting as well what the Trump administration 659 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 11: is doing, but critically in a peaceful way. And the 660 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 11: flags we should be waving shouldn't be Mexican or Palestinian flags. 661 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 11: We should be waving American flags. We are patriots fighting 662 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 11: for our country, for our democracy against an authoritarian power grab, 663 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:48,439 Speaker 11: which is what I think is going on here. 664 00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 5: What's the biggest issue from your perspective that you want 665 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 5: to get across here when you go out and meet 666 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:55,560 Speaker 5: New Yorkers on the street. 667 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 11: Well, I was one of the founders of Teach for 668 00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 11: America thirty six years ago, my first job out of 669 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:01,759 Speaker 11: college a few blocks from here. I've been on the 670 00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 11: board of KIP Charter School. So I've been trying to 671 00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:07,080 Speaker 11: elevate the issue of education reform, improving our public schools, 672 00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:10,360 Speaker 11: where we spend more and get less than any city 673 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 11: or state in the country. It just hasn't been a 674 00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,520 Speaker 11: big issue, honestly, and it always comes back to, you know, 675 00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 11: housing slash affordability and crime and safety and so. But 676 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,680 Speaker 11: I do my best to elevate an issue that I 677 00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 11: care about a lot. Is by far the single biggest 678 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,520 Speaker 11: part of our city budget. Forty billion dollars of one 679 00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 11: hundred and fifteen billion dollar budget goes into the DOE, 680 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 11: and it's not well spent. 681 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,240 Speaker 2: Waitn't until soon. I want to ask a delicate question 682 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,800 Speaker 2: here in that there's such a distrust of Governor Cuomo. 683 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 2: There are those that support him. You know, we all 684 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:42,880 Speaker 2: know the debate here in New York, and I think 685 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:48,719 Speaker 2: frankly nationwide people know the debate. If we have Mayor Cuomo, 686 00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 2: how does he move on from the baggage that was 687 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,920 Speaker 2: earned in Albany? Are you optimistic that he can if 688 00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,920 Speaker 2: he's mayor, that he can move on from the train right? 689 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 2: It was his term in Albany. 690 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:05,960 Speaker 11: Yes, And I would not characterize his years in Albany 691 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,000 Speaker 11: as a train wreck. He's got a lot, he got 692 00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 11: a lot of study. 693 00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:13,640 Speaker 2: On politically I'm talking about and I's on the cover 694 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 2: of the New York Post. 695 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 11: How I know how it ended. But I have had 696 00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,719 Speaker 11: some interactions with him over the years, back when he 697 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,080 Speaker 11: was governor. He was a strong supporter of charter schools. 698 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 11: And at the end of the day, he's experienced, competent, 699 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaker 11: and can get things done. And to those who you know, 700 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:36,360 Speaker 11: he's referred to as a vindictive followed by an expletive 701 00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,200 Speaker 11: by many people. And my argument back to them is 702 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,360 Speaker 11: is there's a lot to be said for someone with 703 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 11: a fearsome reputation trying to get things done here in 704 00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,759 Speaker 11: a very fractious city where you've got to deal not 705 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,799 Speaker 11: only with the city council but with Albany and now 706 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,600 Speaker 11: with the federal government is going to be a real 707 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,080 Speaker 11: challenge as well. We need I think we need someone 708 00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,279 Speaker 11: like Cuoma, and I'm optimistic he'd be up to the job. 709 00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,680 Speaker 4: I guess as a relates to the federal government. Can 710 00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 4: he work with the Trump administration, because perhaps that's maybe 711 00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,799 Speaker 4: one of the things the city needs someone to work 712 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,520 Speaker 4: with the Trump administration on behalf of New York's interest. 713 00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:09,880 Speaker 5: Is that's something you think he could do. 714 00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 11: I think Trump is a bully and he respects other 715 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 11: bullies and people who will stand up to him. And 716 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:20,040 Speaker 11: I think Governor of Cuomo fits that bill. They've known 717 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,200 Speaker 11: each other for a long period of time, and I 718 00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:25,800 Speaker 11: think Cuomo, I would hope, would be smart in standing 719 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,080 Speaker 11: up to Trump, but not needlessly provoking him. And when 720 00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:32,920 Speaker 11: the alternative for us is a thirty three year old socialist, 721 00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 11: I think he would just get destroyed by city politics, 722 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:38,920 Speaker 11: would get destroyed and all, but it would be destroyed 723 00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:42,680 Speaker 11: by Trump. And so you know, that's an easy decision 724 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:43,359 Speaker 11: between those two. 725 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,680 Speaker 2: Winnie Tilson, thank you so much for joining us today, 726 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:50,120 Speaker 2: whatever our political persuasions, and thank you for your public 727 00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:51,720 Speaker 2: service of running for office. 728 00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,399 Speaker 11: I accept your condolencestem you. 729 00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,920 Speaker 2: Get out there and running. I hope it is RESTful 730 00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:57,840 Speaker 2: as time moves on. 731 00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:02,320 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveill Podcast. Listen live each weekday 732 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,360 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 733 00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,440 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 734 00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,800 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 735 00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 736 00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,680 Speaker 2: It was an eventful weekend, to say the least. She 737 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:22,880 Speaker 2: was watching softball tournaments and had hours to research the newspapers. 738 00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,960 Speaker 8: What do you oh in the rain? It was miserable. 739 00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:28,680 Speaker 9: Okay, so I'm starting with the Wall Street Journal. This 740 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,719 Speaker 9: is an interesting take on luxury travel. It has a 741 00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:32,760 Speaker 9: new offering. 742 00:39:32,840 --> 00:39:34,439 Speaker 8: So, yes, you have the pools. 743 00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:36,719 Speaker 9: The spas, that drinks of food, right, the excursions. Well, 744 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:38,000 Speaker 9: now there's also. 745 00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 8: A family therapist on hand, so you can have late 746 00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 8: to family therapy sessions. 747 00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:49,160 Speaker 2: I avoided this us please Okay. 748 00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,719 Speaker 9: This is this company called Bluestone Families. They create these 749 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,360 Speaker 9: retreats at resorts, right, and they say the parents actually 750 00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:56,640 Speaker 9: started asking for this. 751 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,319 Speaker 8: They want to be more connected to their kids. 752 00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:00,319 Speaker 9: So they say, why not do it on vacation where 753 00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,960 Speaker 9: there's no distraction of work, there's no distraction of school, 754 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,640 Speaker 9: and everyone can kind of sit down and talk about 755 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,600 Speaker 9: the issues or whatever's on their mind. But they're saying 756 00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,319 Speaker 9: that kids of you know, rich families, that they're the 757 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,120 Speaker 9: ones who have issues because they have this pressure to succeed. 758 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:17,959 Speaker 9: They're kind of isolated from the parents, they don't really 759 00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:18,600 Speaker 9: talk with them. 760 00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 8: So this is a new thing. 761 00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,480 Speaker 9: So there's a resort in Massachusett they held a Family 762 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:25,160 Speaker 9: Connection Week. 763 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:27,359 Speaker 5: Connection week if you're. 764 00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 2: From the west wing of the Keen Mansion and you 765 00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 2: can hear the echo and the East wing of the 766 00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:37,360 Speaker 2: Keen Mansion now, and that's how you have the family discussion. 767 00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:40,120 Speaker 2: Now it's a. 768 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,719 Speaker 9: Certain see so you can say you don't have to 769 00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,280 Speaker 9: pay the thousand dollars a night that these places are charging. 770 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,239 Speaker 2: Family White Lotus is a show, right, I. 771 00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,360 Speaker 5: Think so, Yeah, I missed it. 772 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:56,520 Speaker 8: Oh yeah, it's okay. Next, okay, this one. 773 00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,399 Speaker 9: You kind of mentioned this, you tease it a little 774 00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:00,760 Speaker 9: bit about YouTube. This is in the screen Time newsletter. 775 00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,520 Speaker 9: What they're showing is shift. It's not just for short 776 00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,520 Speaker 9: term video, but more people are watching the longer ones, 777 00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,440 Speaker 9: so like twenty to thirty minutes, which is similar to 778 00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,839 Speaker 9: like a sitcom. So you think about it, they're kind 779 00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 9: of encroaching on that side of it. They're getting into 780 00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,640 Speaker 9: where sitcoms could be because more people are going to 781 00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,560 Speaker 9: YouTube to watch these creators who are doing like thirty 782 00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:21,320 Speaker 9: minute videos. 783 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,759 Speaker 8: Now. So this is from Tubular Lab. 784 00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,399 Speaker 9: So they said the average YouTube user spends about more 785 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,720 Speaker 9: than fifty percent of their time on the side watching 786 00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,680 Speaker 9: videos that are longer than twenty minutes. 787 00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:32,720 Speaker 8: So that's shift. And also the shift. 788 00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 9: How they're saying users spend forty two percent of their 789 00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 9: time watching it on TV. Some more people watching YouTube 790 00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,600 Speaker 9: on TV than on their phone or on their laptop. 791 00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,120 Speaker 2: But we didn't watch gunsmoke on YouTube. 792 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 5: Absolutely, that's where the kids are going and uh we've 793 00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:46,560 Speaker 5: seen that time. 794 00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:48,839 Speaker 2: The old ulsters are going there too. 795 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, yeah, well there's a few of us, do. 796 00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:55,800 Speaker 2: You think, Paul. The advertisers, you know, absolutely not this month, 797 00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,200 Speaker 2: but over the next five years will go there. 798 00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,640 Speaker 4: Absolutely, And it's become a huge business for for YouTube 799 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,160 Speaker 4: and for Google their advertising business on YouTube. The advertisers 800 00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,320 Speaker 4: since the beginning of time. You have mass an audience, 801 00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,000 Speaker 4: you sell advertising against it. 802 00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:13,480 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm humbled each and every day. We got 803 00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:17,040 Speaker 2: to move on. But folks like humbled by YouTube, Lisa. 804 00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,239 Speaker 8: Okay, the last thing. Are you familiar with these La 805 00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:20,120 Speaker 8: Boo boo dolls? 806 00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:20,600 Speaker 2: Yes? 807 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:25,560 Speaker 9: Okay, you're killing Okay, you have you have to Google 808 00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,399 Speaker 9: or ai this whatever you want to do, because it's 809 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,560 Speaker 9: this furry doll with the fang like teeth. 810 00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,279 Speaker 8: Right, they're made by Chinese stoemaker PopMart. It was a 811 00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:35,960 Speaker 8: huge Yes, there you go. Check out you're watching on YouTube. 812 00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,560 Speaker 9: It's a little scary, but there they are and people 813 00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:39,359 Speaker 9: love them. 814 00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:40,640 Speaker 2: Sore hoity. 815 00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,200 Speaker 9: Yeah, they play huge amounts of money, but now you 816 00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,960 Speaker 9: have the K pop stars. They're collaborating to do their 817 00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,759 Speaker 9: own line, so now it's huge. Yet Lisa's black pink, Yes, 818 00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,600 Speaker 9: she's posted pictures. So now they're becoming more popular in 819 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,640 Speaker 9: South Korea and people are like waiting in line for 820 00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 9: hours for these things. 821 00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:00,759 Speaker 2: They do mail order and they showed me what the 822 00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,600 Speaker 2: prices are and we need one or two or a 823 00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:04,840 Speaker 2: hat trick on our bag. 824 00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,600 Speaker 8: Okay, it's like, it's. 825 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:08,720 Speaker 2: What was this beanie babies? 826 00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:08,960 Speaker 11: Yes? 827 00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 2: Outrageously priced. 828 00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,319 Speaker 9: Yes, and so it's all it's all the rage now, 829 00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,240 Speaker 9: So parents get ready because it's a miserable. 830 00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 2: Software. Welcome Lisa Mateo with the newspapers. 831 00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:28,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 832 00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:32,399 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 833 00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:36,240 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 834 00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:40,200 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 835 00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:43,600 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 836 00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,920 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal