WEBVTT - Cass Sunstein on Behavioral Finance and Wealth

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<v Speaker 1>This is Master's in Business with Barry rid Holds on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>This week on the podcast What Can I Say? Cass

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<v Speaker 2>Sunstein is an intellectual force in American jurisprudence, law, behavioral finance,

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<v Speaker 2>public policy. I don't even know where else to go.

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<v Speaker 2>What a fascinating career and really incredibly interesting person. I

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<v Speaker 2>guess life is easy when you're co authors are all

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<v Speaker 2>Nobel laureates or George Lucas. He's just he's just done

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<v Speaker 2>so many amazing things in a career that spans everywhere

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<v Speaker 2>from the Supreme Court to the Chicago School of Business

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<v Speaker 2>and the Chicago School of Law, Harvard Law School, and

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<v Speaker 2>just multiple public policy positions, public service positions for the

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<v Speaker 2>White House, for the Attorney General's Office, for the Pentagon.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, his influence is just so far reaching and

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<v Speaker 2>fascinating you kind of forget that he also teaches law

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<v Speaker 2>at Harvard. I found this conversation to be delightful, entrancing,

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<v Speaker 2>and fascinating, and I think you will also, with no

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<v Speaker 2>further ado, my sit down with Harvard Laws Cass Sunstein.

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<v Speaker 2>Cass Sunstein, Welcome to Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you a great pleasure to be here.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for joining us. So you co

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<v Speaker 2>author two books with two Nobel laureates and you practically

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<v Speaker 2>write a third one with George Lucas. How much fun

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<v Speaker 2>is that?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I'd say it was amazing. Writing on Star Wars

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<v Speaker 1>was crazy fun, yeah, and also a very unlikely thing

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<v Speaker 1>for a law professor to do. Writing a book with

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<v Speaker 1>Dick Taylor was not crazy fun, but was really fun

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<v Speaker 1>because he's fun.

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<v Speaker 2>There's nobody in the world of economics or behavioral finance

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<v Speaker 2>like Dick Taylor. He's one of my favorite people.

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<v Speaker 1>Agreed, he's unique, and writing with him was a joy

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<v Speaker 1>and a laugh a minute. Writing with Danny Kahneman was astonishing.

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<v Speaker 1>He's the most creative person I've ever met. He's also

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<v Speaker 1>immensely self critical. He's almost as critical of his co

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<v Speaker 1>authors as he is of himself. And it was a

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<v Speaker 1>roller coaster and an incredible learning experience, and his integrity

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<v Speaker 1>and sense of we can do better kept me up

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<v Speaker 1>most nights.

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<v Speaker 2>He supposedly agonizes over every word, every sentence. There. Nothing

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<v Speaker 2>gets published without being looked over nine ways from something.

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<v Speaker 1>That understates that. So you got an email maybe at

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<v Speaker 1>four in the morning saying this chapter is horrible. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know how we could have written it. The whole

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<v Speaker 1>book is horrible. I don't know why we decided to

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<v Speaker 1>write it. And then two hours later he'd say, I

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<v Speaker 1>see the fundamental flaw and we have to give up.

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<v Speaker 1>And then an hour later, maybe four forty five in

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<v Speaker 1>the morning, he'd say, I might have a way to

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<v Speaker 1>correct the fundamental flaw, but I don't think so. And

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<v Speaker 1>then at five point fifteen in the morning, I'll send

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<v Speaker 1>you a note saying I have a glimmer of an insight.

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<v Speaker 1>It's probably going to fail, but I'm going to try it.

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<v Speaker 1>And then at five point forty five in the morning

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<v Speaker 1>he says, I have a new draft of the entire

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<v Speaker 1>chapter which was a catastrophe, and I'm sure this is

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<v Speaker 1>very bad too, but it's less catastrophic.

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<v Speaker 2>That sounds like. Just skip to the last one and

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<v Speaker 2>read that. So we'll get into a lot of your

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<v Speaker 2>writings a little later, but before I want to dive

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<v Speaker 2>into your background. You graduate Harvard with a BA in

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<v Speaker 2>seventy five, Harvard Law School in seventy eight. I assume

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<v Speaker 2>the nineteen seventies were very different than the eighties and nineties,

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<v Speaker 2>when so many people at places like Harvard Law. I

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to go to Wall Street. What was that era

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<v Speaker 2>like at an Ivy League law school.

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<v Speaker 1>It was the aftermath of the nineteen sixties, so it

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<v Speaker 1>was later than all the Civil rights and Vietnam stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was like a wave that was starting to recede,

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<v Speaker 1>but extremely visible. So there were people who wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>have great careers and whatever they could find. There were

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<v Speaker 1>people who thought, I want to make the world better.

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<v Speaker 1>There are people who thought, I'm kind of sick of

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<v Speaker 1>people who want to make the world better. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be like that. And there were different categories

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<v Speaker 1>of types. There was a lot of intensity. There was

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<v Speaker 1>a sense that our country had been through something very

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<v Speaker 1>traumatic and thrilling, and the question is in what direction

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<v Speaker 1>were we going to go? It was pre Reagan era,

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<v Speaker 1>and you could kind of see the dawn of the

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<v Speaker 1>Reagan era and some of my classmates, and you could

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<v Speaker 1>see even the dawn of some of the woke stuff

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<v Speaker 1>today and some of my classmates critical race theory kind

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<v Speaker 1>of about to be born, and you could see the

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<v Speaker 1>origins of it there as well as you could see

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Society, which is the conservative movement that's had

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<v Speaker 1>an amazing influence that the theoretical foundations were kind of

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<v Speaker 1>being laid by twenty somethings in the seventies.

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<v Speaker 2>Interesting, So you clerk for Justice Benjamin Caplan on the

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<v Speaker 2>Massachusetts Supreme Court and then clerk for Justice Thurgood Marshal

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<v Speaker 2>at the Supreme Court of the United States, and this

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<v Speaker 2>is seventy nine eighty. Tell us a little bit about

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<v Speaker 2>what those experiences were like.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Justice Kaplan on the Massachusetts Supreme Court, he's not

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<v Speaker 1>in the history books, but he could be. He was

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<v Speaker 1>a person who was fair and rigorous, and it's almost

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<v Speaker 1>like there's one word for Caplin, fair and rigorous. And

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<v Speaker 1>he was a little like Daddy Kahneman in the sense

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<v Speaker 1>that he'd obsessed over every word. He also was very

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<v Speaker 1>critical of himself, and he could be very critical of

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<v Speaker 1>his clerks. At one point I was told before I started,

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<v Speaker 1>he's going to take you in the equivalent of woodshed,

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<v Speaker 1>and kind of threatened to fire you. And sure enough

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<v Speaker 1>that happened, and I reacted with fire. I said to him,

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<v Speaker 1>this is unfair. And it was quite an encounter. And

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<v Speaker 1>the next day said are you still mad at me?

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<v Speaker 1>Which was a recognition of my humanity, and I said,

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<v Speaker 1>I still think you were unfair, and we became great friends,

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<v Speaker 1>and I learned so much from him. He had been

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<v Speaker 1>a Harvard professor, maybe the best Harvard professor of his generation,

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<v Speaker 1>and he was an extraordinary judge. Marshall was the historic

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<v Speaker 1>person and larger than life, and full of humor and

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<v Speaker 1>wit and moral commitment that was never drawing attention to itself.

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<v Speaker 1>It was more about the people. It was never about himself.

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<v Speaker 1>And what I learned from Marshall is where lawyers typically

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<v Speaker 1>at least of the supreme level, focus on paper and think,

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<v Speaker 1>you know it was the argument solid is the other

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<v Speaker 1>paper better papers, which lawyer has the better of, the

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<v Speaker 1>argument on precedence, on statutes. Marshall, of course thought about

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<v Speaker 1>all of those things, but he saw behind the paper

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<v Speaker 1>people and that was an enduring lesson for me, that

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<v Speaker 1>there was someone vulnerable or not vulnerable, but who was

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<v Speaker 1>a person who was at risk in a case. And

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<v Speaker 1>he always wanted to know who were those people and

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<v Speaker 1>what were the actual stakes for them? And of the

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<v Speaker 1>thousands or millions of similarly situated they might be investors,

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<v Speaker 1>they might be workers, they might be companies, how would

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<v Speaker 1>they be affected? And more than any justice at the time,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think maybe more than any justice in history.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what he put his finger on.

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<v Speaker 2>So you finish up your clerkship and you go to

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<v Speaker 2>the University of Chicago, where you end up staying as

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<v Speaker 2>a professor for twenty seven years. That's a heck of

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<v Speaker 2>a good run. What made Chicago such a special place

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<v Speaker 2>to teach at.

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<v Speaker 1>I did have something in between, i should say, which

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't like a vacation in Paris or a time being

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<v Speaker 1>a shoplifter. I had at the Department of Justice, where

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<v Speaker 1>I worked for a year in an office called the

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<v Speaker 1>Office of Legal Counsel under both Carter and Reagan, which

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<v Speaker 1>advises the president on the legality of what he proposes

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<v Speaker 1>to do.

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<v Speaker 2>So not like the Solicitor General that's arguing in front

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<v Speaker 2>of the Supreme Court. This is working directly with potus.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, and well, when you say directly, that's true. Except

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<v Speaker 1>the number of meetings I had with President Reagan was zero.

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<v Speaker 1>The number of mediated interactions I had with President Reagan

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<v Speaker 1>was about five. And the amount of work that I

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<v Speaker 1>did for the President was basically every day. So the

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<v Speaker 1>Solicitor General's office argues the cases in front of the

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<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court. The Officer of Legal Counsel resolves conflicts, eg.

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<v Speaker 1>Between the State Department and the Defense Department, or if

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<v Speaker 1>the president says, can I make a treaty? Or can

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<v Speaker 1>I fire the air traffic controllers? Or can I do

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<v Speaker 1>something about civil rights? The Office of Legal Counsel is

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<v Speaker 1>the one that answers that question. And it's I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's at least as interesting as the Solicitor General's office

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<v Speaker 1>because you're not pleading to a court please agree with us.

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<v Speaker 1>You're actually resolving a controversy. And it's kind of in

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<v Speaker 1>between being a judge. You write opinions, kind of like

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<v Speaker 1>a judge, and you are part of a political operation

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<v Speaker 1>that is the executive branch. And if the president wants

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<v Speaker 1>to do something, you're not indifferent to the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the president wants to do that. But saying no is

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<v Speaker 1>a very honorable tradition in that office. And we said

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<v Speaker 1>no plenty. And one reason you say no is the

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<v Speaker 1>president has an obligation to take care of the laws

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<v Speaker 1>be faithfully executed, right, and that's solemn.

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<v Speaker 2>Do we still do that anymore? If we kind of

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<v Speaker 2>waved that.

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<v Speaker 1>Off, No, that still happens. So under recent presidents, all

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<v Speaker 1>of them, the Office of Legal Consul has occasionally said no. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>in some times, the Office of Legal Console is more

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<v Speaker 1>politically let's say, what's the right word compromise. I want

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<v Speaker 1>to use a softer word, but that's not I don't

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<v Speaker 1>have to.

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<v Speaker 2>I have no ties to the unity, so I could

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<v Speaker 2>drop whatever bombs I want. I know, you need to

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<v Speaker 2>be a touchpec.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it is correct to say that the legal

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<v Speaker 1>independence of the Office of Legal Console varies over time. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>but by tradition it is not just a lackey. And then,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, went to the University of Chicago. I

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<v Speaker 1>went there because I was fearful that being a professor

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<v Speaker 1>would be like retiring in your twenties. And I thought,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not what I want to do.

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<v Speaker 2>The last landed gentry in America are tenured professors.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what I was fearful of. So I thought, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I was in the Justice Department. I had clerked for

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<v Speaker 1>the Supreme Court. I had uh uh career plans and

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of just uh sitting in an office and

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<v Speaker 1>thinking what ideas do I have? That didn't feel really

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<v Speaker 1>like living. It felt more like celtifying. But at the

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<v Speaker 1>University of Chicago, the faculty was full of dynamism and energy,

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<v Speaker 1>and whether they were producing new ideas about the economic

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<v Speaker 1>analysis of law or new ideas about what freedom means,

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<v Speaker 1>or new ideas about the securities law, it was like

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<v Speaker 1>uh uh, it was electric. It was like Paris. And

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<v Speaker 1>the University of Chicago Law School at that time was,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, as lively an intellectual community as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they say, Vienna at one point was like that, and

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<v Speaker 1>Berlin at one point was like that, and uh, Cambridge

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<v Speaker 1>and Oxford at some points have been like that. Chicago

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<v Speaker 1>was like that.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you still a quote Chicago person? Through and through?

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<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't say that. I think that everyone is themselves

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<v Speaker 1>rather than the Chicago person or you know, new Yorker.

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<v Speaker 1>Forgive me for those who consider themselves New Yorkers. There yourself.

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<v Speaker 1>But I was certainly inspired by and influenced by the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that at Chicago there was in his intense curiosity

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<v Speaker 1>and a sense that trying to figure out what's true

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<v Speaker 1>is thrilling and.

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<v Speaker 2>Noble.

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<v Speaker 1>So I saw Gary Becker, who won the Nobel and

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<v Speaker 1>the great Chicago economists, who was almost a law professor,

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<v Speaker 1>who was around all the time, man did he think

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<v Speaker 1>I was full of nonsense? And when he would ask

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<v Speaker 1>me questions in his workshop, the feeling of you are

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<v Speaker 1>wrong was combined with a feeling of respect that I'll

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<v Speaker 1>never forget. He was, you know, a giant, and I

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<v Speaker 1>was a nothing.

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<v Speaker 2>Wait wait, wait, I have to interrupt you here. So

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<v Speaker 2>you come out of clerking not for one Supreme Court,

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<v Speaker 2>but a state and the Supreme Court. Then you are

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<v Speaker 2>serving the White House in the Office General Counsel, and

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<v Speaker 2>suddenly you're a one l being pulled on again, feeling

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<v Speaker 2>that like panic, rise, am I going to get this wrong?

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<v Speaker 1>And being massed in front of everybody, Well, a little

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<v Speaker 1>like that. So I was in my twenties, mind you,

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<v Speaker 1>and I remember a dinner that Dick Posner had for

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>me as a newcomer of the University of Chicago, and

0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.400
<v Speaker 1>George Stigler, who was also a Nobel Prize guy, was

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 1>there and he asked me what I taught. And I

0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.680
<v Speaker 1>was teaching welfare law, and that was when I courses

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.280
<v Speaker 1>in Chicago in Chicago, and it was about the social

0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 1>security law and anti poveri law. George Stigler said that

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.200
<v Speaker 1>why would you teach that? There aren't any poor people

0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:04.320
<v Speaker 1>in America. And he had written a paper showing that

0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.840
<v Speaker 1>if you earn six dollars a week, or something purporting

0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 1>to show I should say, if you have six dollars

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.400
<v Speaker 1>a week, you're going to be fine. And my reaction

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.920
<v Speaker 1>to that was, your name may be Stigler, and you

0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 1>may have a Nobell, but I don't believe a second

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 1>that that paper is correct. And he was much smarter

0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.760
<v Speaker 1>and more learned than I was, and it was a

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:32.440
<v Speaker 1>terrible dinner. But I did have, back then maybe now

0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>a sense that, you know, I'm going to give him

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.640
<v Speaker 1>a best shot, and I didn't have a sense that

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:43.200
<v Speaker 1>I was necessarily wrong. And I remember Stigler's fierceness, and

0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:47.800
<v Speaker 1>he was Becker was a great man who was respectful

0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 1>as well as skeptical. Stigler was contemptuous as well as curious.

0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:57.120
<v Speaker 1>Who was this young fool who was at our dinner party.

0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 1>But Tick Posner, who was there, who was also a giant,

0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>was at that dinner. He was kind, so he saw

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:11.760
<v Speaker 1>I was in trouble because Stigler was so amazingly smart

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.360
<v Speaker 1>and quick. And Posner, who agreed with Stiegler, came to

0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 1>my defense and that was the start of a great friendship.

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 2>That's really really quite interesting. And thank goodness there are

0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:26.560
<v Speaker 2>no poor people in America, because just think about how

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 2>uncomfortable would be to see homeless in big cities and

0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.960
<v Speaker 2>people unable to pay for medical care. I mean, what

0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 2>sort of a country as that sort of thing? Yeah,

0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:37.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean, thank goodness, he was right.

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we probably need a progressive income tax or something,

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:44.240
<v Speaker 1>and jobs programs and educational opportunity.

0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 2>So here is the fascinating irony about your career starting

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 2>in Chicago and now you've been at Harvard for quite

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:54.840
<v Speaker 2>a while, back and forth to public service, but still

0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.800
<v Speaker 2>at Harvard Law School for quite a while. It seems

0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:02.360
<v Speaker 2>like those are the endpoints on the intellectual spectrum, at

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 2>least in terms of legal thought. Am I overstating that

0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:07.000
<v Speaker 2>or is that fair?

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 1>It's a great question. So Chicago, when I was there,

0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 1>was the center of right of center legal thought. It

0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 1>had a very large percentage of the most influential right

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 1>of center people, and they were fantastic and they continue

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:29.320
<v Speaker 1>to be great friends. Harvard was the place where critical

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 1>legal studies was born. It's kind of not a thing anymore,

0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:37.080
<v Speaker 1>but that was the left of center to law and economics,

0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:39.640
<v Speaker 1>which was the right of center, I thought. Even when

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:41.920
<v Speaker 1>I was at Chicago, though I wasn't right of center,

0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>I thought law and economics was extremely important and kind

0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.040
<v Speaker 1>of on the right track. And I thought critical legal

0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:54.840
<v Speaker 1>studies was a bunch of adjectives and nouns and not

0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 1>really adding up to much. But I admired at Harvard

0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 1>the contraditional law of people who were fantastically clear headed

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:07.639
<v Speaker 1>about the law, for sure. And I admired the students

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:15.160
<v Speaker 1>at Harvard who were so diverse in terms of intellectual

0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:22.960
<v Speaker 1>interests and intellectual background and politics and everything. Chicago has

0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:26.919
<v Speaker 1>intellectual diversity too, but it's just smaller. So I felt

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:29.800
<v Speaker 1>that Harvard was a little like New York City and

0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:37.080
<v Speaker 1>Chicago was a little like Boston, smaller, more tightly connected

0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 1>everyone to everyone else.

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.880
<v Speaker 2>And I love them both. So you work at Harvard

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:49.719
<v Speaker 2>with some just legendary professors. Did you overlap with Guido

0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:52.720
<v Speaker 2>Calabrisi when he was I think dean of you.

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:54.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, he was at Yale, and I know him

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:58.840
<v Speaker 1>very well and I love him dearly, and he's ninety

0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 1>something now, and he was a great influence on me

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 1>and Harvard and Yale often have intellectual interactions that are

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:14.600
<v Speaker 1>breeding a friendship and Chicago and Yale also, and Calibrazy

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:19.199
<v Speaker 1>was a founder of economic analysis of law and a

0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:24.160
<v Speaker 1>little more, let's say, focused on poor people and people

0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.520
<v Speaker 1>are struggling than Chicago economics. So there's a Yale school

0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:32.240
<v Speaker 1>in Chicago school and Calibrazy. I can't quite say he

0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.480
<v Speaker 1>was a mentor, but he feels like that to me.

0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:40.320
<v Speaker 2>And Lawrence Tribe probably the pre eminent constitutional law scholar

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.240
<v Speaker 2>in the country. Is am I again, am I overstating that?

0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:44.720
<v Speaker 2>Or is that a fair I.

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:47.639
<v Speaker 1>Think it's a little like basketball, and some people like

0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Michael Jordan and some people like Lebron James and something.

0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 1>And Bill Russell, of course was the greatest winner of

0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 1>all time. Tribe was my teacher and oh really, and

0:18:57.600 --> 0:19:00.760
<v Speaker 1>he was maybe of the three the most like Michael Jordan.

0:19:01.640 --> 0:19:08.440
<v Speaker 1>His intellectual athleticism was and is next level, next level.

0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:11.640
<v Speaker 1>And he was when when he was my teacher, he

0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 1>was charismatic, he was clear, he was bursting with ideas.

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:21.720
<v Speaker 1>He was writing his great treatise at the time, and

0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:29.120
<v Speaker 1>it was a bonfire of thinking in a constructive bonfires destroyed.

0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:33.959
<v Speaker 1>Tribe didn't destroy anything, and I thought he was dazzling,

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 1>And he wrote a letter for me, actually for my

0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:40.719
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court clerkship with Justice Marshall, which I'm very grateful for.

0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:44.760
<v Speaker 1>He's he's still a great friend, and you know he's

0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:47.520
<v Speaker 1>he's in many ways he's different from me in the

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:52.760
<v Speaker 1>last years. Particularly he's more politically engaged in a way

0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:57.080
<v Speaker 1>that is not my typical style. But I'm full of

0:19:57.119 --> 0:19:58.480
<v Speaker 1>admiration for him.

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.440
<v Speaker 2>Really really quite interesting. So let's talk a little bit

0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:05.560
<v Speaker 2>about this program. What leads to something like this coming about.

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't sound like your typical law school sort of

0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:11.159
<v Speaker 2>class completely.

0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:15.119
<v Speaker 1>So there has been, as I think everyone's aware now,

0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:19.680
<v Speaker 1>an explosion of work in behavioral economics and behavioral science

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:23.880
<v Speaker 1>about human behavior. So we know how people depart from

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:28.160
<v Speaker 1>perfect rationality. So people are often focused on short term,

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:33.000
<v Speaker 1>not the long term. They're often unrealistically optimistic, their attention

0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:36.640
<v Speaker 1>is limited. They can be manipulated because they'll focus on

0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:39.400
<v Speaker 1>one or two features of let's say a product, rather

0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:42.560
<v Speaker 1>than seven, and that means they'll get two features they

0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:45.840
<v Speaker 1>like and five that they in the long run will despise.

0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:49.280
<v Speaker 1>So we know a lot about that. This has major

0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:55.320
<v Speaker 1>implications for law So with respect to fiduciary obligations, let's

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:59.240
<v Speaker 1>say a fiduciary, what do they have to tell people

0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and what do they have to make clear to people

0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:07.160
<v Speaker 1>and not just tell people? And behavioral science tells us

0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:10.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot about that. If we're thinking about free speech

0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:14.399
<v Speaker 1>law and we're thinking about the marketplace of ideas, behavioral

0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:18.159
<v Speaker 1>science behavioral economics might tell us something about how people

0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:23.120
<v Speaker 1>get confused or fooled. If we're talking about property law,

0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:26.199
<v Speaker 1>toward law or contract law, there has to be a

0:21:26.280 --> 0:21:28.040
<v Speaker 1>sense of how people are going to react to what

0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:30.479
<v Speaker 1>the law is doing. So if the law has a

0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:32.960
<v Speaker 1>default term, let's say that you have to perform in

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:37.160
<v Speaker 1>a reasonable time, and let's say the company that's doing

0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.320
<v Speaker 1>the performance thinks a reasonable time means maybe next year.

0:21:41.240 --> 0:21:43.879
<v Speaker 1>What does the law do about that? And so there

0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:47.520
<v Speaker 1>are are zillion questions. Algorithms in AI are kind of

0:21:47.560 --> 0:21:50.399
<v Speaker 1>top of mind now for the law to try to

0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:54.720
<v Speaker 1>figure out that have a behavioral feature, and that's that's

0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of what we're doing with our program.

0:21:57.119 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 2>That sounds really interesting, assuming since you co authored Nudge

0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:07.000
<v Speaker 2>with Dick Thaylor, which came first working with Sailor or

0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:11.600
<v Speaker 2>the program on behavioral economics and public policy.

0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 1>I'll tell you a story. Before I met Faylor, I

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:21.120
<v Speaker 1>was overwhelmed the best way by the work of conomin University,

0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:24.919
<v Speaker 1>a failure. So I thought, this is the thing, and

0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:27.400
<v Speaker 1>I started to work on some papers, one of which

0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:31.280
<v Speaker 1>was called behavioral analysis of law. And then Taylor came

0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:34.919
<v Speaker 1>to the University of Chicago and we started having lunch together,

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.600
<v Speaker 1>and I started working with him when he was working

0:22:38.640 --> 0:22:41.200
<v Speaker 1>on a paper with a law professor named Christine Joels

0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:43.720
<v Speaker 1>that I thought was going too slowly, and I said,

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:46.320
<v Speaker 1>if you don't write that paper, I'm going to write

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:49.840
<v Speaker 1>my paper and it might steal your thunder. It won't

0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:52.720
<v Speaker 1>be as good as yours, but it'll be earlier. And

0:22:53.680 --> 0:22:56.919
<v Speaker 1>Dick said, you know, this was a fantastic moment for me.

0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:58.880
<v Speaker 1>He said, why don't you join us? And we wrote

0:22:58.920 --> 0:23:02.880
<v Speaker 1>it together. So I was intrigued by the behavioral stuff

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:06.400
<v Speaker 1>before I met fayalor after I met Faylor, I had

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:10.000
<v Speaker 1>a the world's best partner on this stuff. And then

0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>when I went to Harvard our program that followed, and

0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:18.520
<v Speaker 1>some of it involves nudges, some of it has nothing

0:23:18.520 --> 0:23:20.240
<v Speaker 1>to do with nudges, but all of it has to

0:23:20.280 --> 0:23:21.480
<v Speaker 1>do with behavioral science.

0:23:22.080 --> 0:23:26.520
<v Speaker 2>So you also co wrote Noise with with Danny Kahneman.

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:33.280
<v Speaker 2>It seems that there's a theme in all your books, nudge, noise, sludge.

0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:39.120
<v Speaker 2>You're constantly looking at the decision making process, and not

0:23:39.240 --> 0:23:42.800
<v Speaker 2>just from an academic perspective, but how it affects people

0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:45.119
<v Speaker 2>in the real world, how it affects organizations, how it

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:49.200
<v Speaker 2>affects individuals. Tell us a little bit about the integration

0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:53.440
<v Speaker 2>of behavioral finance and behavioral economics with law.

0:23:54.320 --> 0:23:59.199
<v Speaker 1>Okay, well, let's talk a little bit about groups, shall we.

0:24:00.920 --> 0:24:03.680
<v Speaker 1>If you get a group of like minded people together,

0:24:04.440 --> 0:24:07.879
<v Speaker 1>they typically end up thinking a more extreme version of

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 1>what they thought before they started to talk. So if

0:24:10.800 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 1>you get a group of people who tend to think,

0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:18.199
<v Speaker 1>you know, we ought to invest in X. Take your pick, soap,

0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:20.520
<v Speaker 1>there's new kind of soap, we ought to invest in X.

0:24:20.600 --> 0:24:23.879
<v Speaker 1>That's the average view soap. Everyone needs to be clean

0:24:24.480 --> 0:24:27.480
<v Speaker 1>and with climate change, soap it's going to be crazy

0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:31.879
<v Speaker 1>soap companies. If that's the average view, I'm starting to

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:34.720
<v Speaker 1>convince myself by the way to invest in soap companies,

0:24:34.760 --> 0:24:38.560
<v Speaker 1>which is probably not necessarily right. Let's put it that way.

0:24:39.000 --> 0:24:41.600
<v Speaker 1>If people talk with one another, and they start with

0:24:41.640 --> 0:24:44.840
<v Speaker 1>an initial disposition, they tend to think an extreme version

0:24:44.880 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 1>of what they thought. They become more confident, more unified,

0:24:47.760 --> 0:24:52.159
<v Speaker 1>and more extreme. This is a real problem for companies,

0:24:52.400 --> 0:24:56.000
<v Speaker 1>it's a real problem for law. We have data suggesting

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 1>if you get three judges who are let's say, Democratic

0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:03.919
<v Speaker 1>appointees on Court of Appeals, not two Democratic appointees and

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:08.080
<v Speaker 1>one Republican three Democratic appointees, the likelihood of a left

0:25:08.080 --> 0:25:12.400
<v Speaker 1>of center opinion shoots up really dramatically. That's a crazy

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 1>finding because if you have two Democratic appointees on a

0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:17.680
<v Speaker 1>three judge panel, they have the votes, they don't need

0:25:17.680 --> 0:25:21.119
<v Speaker 1>that Republican appointee, but they are much more moderate, and

0:25:21.200 --> 0:25:26.160
<v Speaker 1>it's symmetrical. Three Republican appointees are much more right wing

0:25:26.160 --> 0:25:29.840
<v Speaker 1>in their voting patterns then two Republican appointees on a

0:25:29.880 --> 0:25:32.280
<v Speaker 1>panel with one Democratic appointee.

0:25:32.320 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 2>So group think even amongst judges is worse if there's

0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:40.720
<v Speaker 2>three of them in no countering voices versus, hey, we

0:25:40.760 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 2>have a majority and we're going to sign how we want,

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:46.520
<v Speaker 2>but everybody kind of wants to be rational and cooperative.

0:25:46.600 --> 0:25:48.920
<v Speaker 1>Is that the suggest And here's the really cool thing.

0:25:48.960 --> 0:25:53.040
<v Speaker 1>There is a book called group think a few decades ago.

0:25:53.080 --> 0:25:57.240
<v Speaker 1>It's a fantastic term. It's not clear what group think is,

0:25:57.640 --> 0:26:00.240
<v Speaker 1>and if we clear clarify what is, it's not clear

0:26:00.280 --> 0:26:05.040
<v Speaker 1>whether it exists. So the rigorous efforts to test group

0:26:05.119 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 1>think have a bunch of question marks. But there's something

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 1>like groupthink which does exist, which is a testable hypothesis,

0:26:13.119 --> 0:26:15.520
<v Speaker 1>which is, if you've got a group of people, it

0:26:15.600 --> 0:26:19.240
<v Speaker 1>will end up after deliberation in a more extreme point,

0:26:19.280 --> 0:26:22.880
<v Speaker 1>in line with its pre deliberation tendencies. So that's a mouthful.

0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:25.040
<v Speaker 1>But let's suppose you have a group of six people

0:26:25.280 --> 0:26:28.760
<v Speaker 1>deciding whether to invest in soap or instead electric cars.

0:26:28.800 --> 0:26:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Those are the options. Let's say four of them think

0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:33.760
<v Speaker 1>soap and two of them think electric cars, and they

0:26:33.760 --> 0:26:36.000
<v Speaker 1>think the same thing. They think what they do with

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:40.160
<v Speaker 1>equal intensity. At the end of the discussion, the prediction

0:26:40.320 --> 0:26:43.000
<v Speaker 1>is the group is going to go soap, soap, soap, soap, soap,

0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:47.600
<v Speaker 1>and it's going to do that with a considerable confidence

0:26:47.640 --> 0:26:51.360
<v Speaker 1>as well as unanimity. That will be the statistical regularity.

0:26:51.720 --> 0:26:55.840
<v Speaker 1>And I've done work on political issues, climate change, affirmative action,

0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:58.720
<v Speaker 1>same sex stuff, where if you've get a group that

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:01.480
<v Speaker 1>has a conservative disposition, they go whish to the right

0:27:01.520 --> 0:27:03.680
<v Speaker 1>after they talk with one another. If they have a

0:27:03.760 --> 0:27:06.440
<v Speaker 1>left of center disposition, they go whish to the left

0:27:06.560 --> 0:27:09.439
<v Speaker 1>after they talk with one another. And Conneman and I

0:27:09.520 --> 0:27:13.000
<v Speaker 1>did this a study with this on punitive damages jury awards,

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:16.560
<v Speaker 1>where for jury's mad at a company, they're going to

0:27:16.600 --> 0:27:19.560
<v Speaker 1>be super mad at a company after they talk with

0:27:19.640 --> 0:27:23.080
<v Speaker 1>one another, which helps explain why punitive damages are both

0:27:23.160 --> 0:27:25.560
<v Speaker 1>unpredictable and often really really high.

0:27:25.680 --> 0:27:29.919
<v Speaker 2>So that's so let's take that basic concept and apply

0:27:30.040 --> 0:27:35.720
<v Speaker 2>it to online where you have social media and all

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:39.800
<v Speaker 2>sorts of trolling activities, and you end up with conspiracy

0:27:39.840 --> 0:27:44.760
<v Speaker 2>theories like QAnon. How should public policy deal with these

0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 2>sort of things between anti vaxxers and anti democratic election deniers.

0:27:51.640 --> 0:27:54.480
<v Speaker 2>This is a genuine threat to the health and safety

0:27:54.520 --> 0:27:55.160
<v Speaker 2>of the country.

0:27:55.800 --> 0:27:59.639
<v Speaker 1>So back in two thousand, I agreed to write a

0:27:59.680 --> 0:28:05.160
<v Speaker 1>book for Princeton University Press called Republic dot Com. And

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 1>I had a title, but I didn't have a book,

0:28:08.280 --> 0:28:14.840
<v Speaker 1>and I had six months of failure, like unbelievable failure,

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:20.240
<v Speaker 1>like either nothing or it was terrible. You I was

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:23.359
<v Speaker 1>worse than common. And because what he didn't like in

0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:26.399
<v Speaker 1>his own work. His work is actually good. What I

0:28:26.480 --> 0:28:29.600
<v Speaker 1>produced in those six months was in fact horrible. I

0:28:29.640 --> 0:28:32.520
<v Speaker 1>still have it somewhere. But then I thought, okay, the

0:28:32.560 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 1>real problem is echo chambers and the absence of shared

0:28:38.680 --> 0:28:42.440
<v Speaker 1>exposure to things. And then when I thought echo chambers,

0:28:42.480 --> 0:28:46.800
<v Speaker 1>shared exposures, I sketched out nine chapters, and I wrote

0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 1>a chapter a day, and I had a book after

0:28:49.120 --> 0:28:51.240
<v Speaker 1>nine days. I've never had anything like that. It was

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:57.320
<v Speaker 1>like a frenzy, a happy frenzy of book writing. And

0:28:57.400 --> 0:29:00.400
<v Speaker 1>that book has now gone through three editions. It was

0:29:00.600 --> 0:29:03.520
<v Speaker 1>first called republic dot.

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:07.160
<v Speaker 2>Com hashtag republic divided democracy in the age of social media.

0:29:07.240 --> 0:29:10.080
<v Speaker 1>That one, that's the very recent one, and it's exactly

0:29:10.120 --> 0:29:14.480
<v Speaker 1>on your point. So what should be done by various actors,

0:29:14.520 --> 0:29:17.760
<v Speaker 1>I think is a really hard question. But the existence

0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:23.120
<v Speaker 1>of the problem is palpable. If you're thinking about yourself

0:29:23.320 --> 0:29:26.440
<v Speaker 1>just as an individual, to try to be exposed to

0:29:26.560 --> 0:29:31.040
<v Speaker 1>diverse ideas is a really good idea. They're apps. There's

0:29:31.040 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 1>one I don't know if it still is working. I hope.

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:36.160
<v Speaker 1>So it's called read across the aisle, where you where

0:29:36.200 --> 0:29:38.840
<v Speaker 1>you can tell whether you're just reading one kind of

0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:42.040
<v Speaker 1>thing or another kind of thing, so there's self monitoring.

0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:46.040
<v Speaker 1>I know that some social media platforms have thought hard

0:29:46.240 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 1>about how to handle the echo chamber phenomenon, and hard

0:29:50.960 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>also about how to think about the the misinformation problem.

0:29:57.000 --> 0:30:02.560
<v Speaker 1>And there are various things that behavioral scientis would counsel

0:30:02.680 --> 0:30:11.720
<v Speaker 1>consideration of, including warnings, including reduced circulation levels, including in

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:15.960
<v Speaker 1>extreme cases, very extreme cases, taking things down. Not through

0:30:16.000 --> 0:30:19.200
<v Speaker 1>government because that then there's a First Amendment issue, but

0:30:19.320 --> 0:30:23.960
<v Speaker 1>through voluntary action. And one size doesn't fit all, but

0:30:25.520 --> 0:30:28.280
<v Speaker 1>I agree this is a very serious challenge.

0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:31.600
<v Speaker 2>So a different book, I assume, is on rumors, how

0:30:31.640 --> 0:30:35.720
<v Speaker 2>falsehood spread, why we believe them, and what can be done.

0:30:36.040 --> 0:30:40.960
<v Speaker 2>It seems like we are very predisposed to believe nonsense

0:30:41.240 --> 0:30:44.200
<v Speaker 2>if it confirms our prior beliefs. We believe what we

0:30:44.240 --> 0:30:46.560
<v Speaker 2>want to believe in. Who cares about the facts.

0:30:46.600 --> 0:30:49.320
<v Speaker 1>Okay, so here let's talk about three things might we

0:30:51.000 --> 0:30:56.120
<v Speaker 1>The first is if I tell you that it's raining

0:30:56.160 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 1>outside right now, you aren't going to think think he's

0:31:01.440 --> 0:31:06.200
<v Speaker 1>fooling me. It's sunny and beautiful outside. You're probably going

0:31:06.240 --> 0:31:09.320
<v Speaker 1>to think, maybe I should get an umbrella. So when

0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 1>people hear something and there's probably a good evolutionary explanation

0:31:13.480 --> 0:31:17.280
<v Speaker 1>for this. Under ordinary circumstances, they think it's true, and

0:31:17.360 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 1>that truth bias is it's sometimes called is essential. If

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:23.600
<v Speaker 1>we try to live in a world in which we

0:31:23.640 --> 0:31:27.480
<v Speaker 1>thought everything people said was false, we couldn't get through

0:31:27.720 --> 0:31:28.120
<v Speaker 1>a day.

0:31:28.360 --> 0:31:33.080
<v Speaker 2>Cooperative primates in a social group provided a survival advantage,

0:31:33.480 --> 0:31:37.040
<v Speaker 2>so you're not inclined to disbelieve someone looking eye and

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:38.320
<v Speaker 2>telling you something completely.

0:31:38.560 --> 0:31:43.280
<v Speaker 1>But truth bias can lead us in really terrible directions,

0:31:43.360 --> 0:31:46.800
<v Speaker 1>and that's independent of motive. So I don't need to

0:31:47.560 --> 0:31:49.840
<v Speaker 1>want to think it's raining to think if someone tells

0:31:49.880 --> 0:31:53.800
<v Speaker 1>me it's raining, it's umbrella time. That's one truth bias.

0:31:53.880 --> 0:31:58.280
<v Speaker 1>The other thing is confirmation bias, where if we're told

0:31:58.400 --> 0:32:01.560
<v Speaker 1>things that fit with what we think, we tend to

0:32:01.680 --> 0:32:04.320
<v Speaker 1>like that and we tend to believe it because it

0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:07.760
<v Speaker 1>fits with what we think, and that can aggravate the

0:32:09.600 --> 0:32:13.680
<v Speaker 1>problem of echo chambers where people it's confirmation bias is

0:32:13.720 --> 0:32:16.280
<v Speaker 1>being catered to. So if you think the thing is

0:32:16.440 --> 0:32:20.600
<v Speaker 1>your investment in X is really going great, even though

0:32:20.600 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 1>all the indication is that it's risky. The confirmation, the

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:30.120
<v Speaker 1>confirmatory material will have credibility. We have recent data suggesting.

0:32:30.200 --> 0:32:32.840
<v Speaker 1>There's a third thing, which is I think cooler than

0:32:32.880 --> 0:32:38.080
<v Speaker 1>truth bias or confirmation bias. Its name is desirability bias,

0:32:38.520 --> 0:32:44.680
<v Speaker 1>and it's like confirmation bias, except it's different. And maybe

0:32:44.680 --> 0:32:47.800
<v Speaker 1>I like it because of the phenomenon it draws attention

0:32:47.920 --> 0:32:51.000
<v Speaker 1>to because I find it desirable in a way that

0:32:51.120 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 1>it indicates it's fun.

0:32:52.560 --> 0:32:56.840
<v Speaker 2>So the desirability bias appeals to your own desirability.

0:32:56.200 --> 0:32:58.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it does, because it fits with my conception of

0:32:58.960 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 1>human nature. Confirmation both, but let's pull them apart a bit.

0:33:03.360 --> 0:33:08.640
<v Speaker 1>So desirability bias means that people believe things if they

0:33:08.680 --> 0:33:12.440
<v Speaker 1>find it enjoyable to believe them. Where enjoyable is a

0:33:12.440 --> 0:33:15.120
<v Speaker 1>big concept. So it might mean it makes them smile,

0:33:15.200 --> 0:33:17.800
<v Speaker 1>It might make me makes them feel secure. It might

0:33:17.840 --> 0:33:22.080
<v Speaker 1>mean it makes them feel pleased. It could make feel

0:33:22.120 --> 0:33:24.960
<v Speaker 1>them make them feel grateful. It can be any number

0:33:25.040 --> 0:33:30.680
<v Speaker 1>of things, but desirability bias and confirmation bias are emphatically

0:33:30.720 --> 0:33:34.680
<v Speaker 1>not the same thing. You might hear something that fits

0:33:34.720 --> 0:33:40.280
<v Speaker 1>with your belief that is, like, you're really sick, but

0:33:40.360 --> 0:33:42.360
<v Speaker 1>you don't want to believe that because you don't want

0:33:42.400 --> 0:33:45.080
<v Speaker 1>to believe you're really sick. And so if something is

0:33:45.120 --> 0:33:49.360
<v Speaker 1>disconfirming but desirable. The data we have suggests that the

0:33:49.440 --> 0:33:54.600
<v Speaker 1>desirable will beat the confirmatory. So if you think the

0:33:54.640 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 1>economy is going to go sour and then you learn

0:33:58.400 --> 0:34:04.200
<v Speaker 1>that's not true, you might well be extremely credulous, meaning

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:08.440
<v Speaker 1>willing to believe the happy thing even though it's disconfirming

0:34:08.480 --> 0:34:13.839
<v Speaker 1>of your belief. So desirability bias means things that please us,

0:34:13.920 --> 0:34:17.440
<v Speaker 1>we will tend to believe, even if they are disconfirming

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:19.560
<v Speaker 1>of what we start believing.

0:34:20.440 --> 0:34:25.120
<v Speaker 2>That's really intriguing. What I find so fascinating about confirmation

0:34:25.320 --> 0:34:30.120
<v Speaker 2>bias is the underlying investment in the model of the

0:34:30.160 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 2>world our brains create. I think our brains consume twenty

0:34:33.680 --> 0:34:38.080
<v Speaker 2>five percent of our daily energy, and so the models

0:34:38.400 --> 0:34:44.200
<v Speaker 2>we create over time we are so reluctant to challenge.

0:34:44.320 --> 0:34:48.239
<v Speaker 2>We don't want to look for disconfirming evidence because hey,

0:34:48.320 --> 0:34:51.279
<v Speaker 2>we have all these sunk costs over here to bring

0:34:51.360 --> 0:34:55.200
<v Speaker 2>up another fallacy. Tell us a little more about how

0:34:55.239 --> 0:34:59.239
<v Speaker 2>you test for desirability bias and how it manifests in

0:34:59.280 --> 0:35:00.640
<v Speaker 2>things like public policy.

0:35:01.000 --> 0:35:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Okay, so let's talk a little bit about confirmation bias.

0:35:05.680 --> 0:35:11.560
<v Speaker 1>If I believe that the Holocaust happened, if I read

0:35:11.640 --> 0:35:16.120
<v Speaker 1>something think saying it didn't happen. I will dismiss that,

0:35:16.880 --> 0:35:23.279
<v Speaker 1>not because please that the Holocaust happened, but because I

0:35:23.320 --> 0:35:27.120
<v Speaker 1>am so clear that the Holocaust happened that the information

0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:32.000
<v Speaker 1>that's inconsistent with my belief has no credibility. So it's basian.

0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:36.440
<v Speaker 1>It's not about motivation. So I believe that dropped objects fall.

0:35:36.840 --> 0:35:39.120
<v Speaker 1>If a magician comes to me and says, you know,

0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:42.560
<v Speaker 1>you're not quite right on that, I will think, magician,

0:35:42.600 --> 0:35:45.720
<v Speaker 1>you're pretty good at your job. But I really believe

0:35:46.040 --> 0:35:49.000
<v Speaker 1>dropped objects fall. It's not about my motivations. It's what

0:35:49.400 --> 0:35:52.839
<v Speaker 1>I start with. So a lot of what we call

0:35:52.920 --> 0:35:57.200
<v Speaker 1>confirmation bias is basian updating. Given our priors, we dismiss

0:35:57.280 --> 0:35:59.759
<v Speaker 1>what is disconfirming on the ground that how can it

0:35:59.760 --> 0:36:02.680
<v Speaker 1>be true that dropped objects don't fall? Or how can

0:36:02.719 --> 0:36:05.000
<v Speaker 1>it be true that Bill Russell isn't the greatest winner

0:36:05.000 --> 0:36:08.560
<v Speaker 1>in the history of organized sports. I have actually an

0:36:08.600 --> 0:36:11.280
<v Speaker 1>emotional investment as well as.

0:36:11.480 --> 0:36:14.400
<v Speaker 2>One sports opinion, which is emotion. The other is physics.

0:36:14.480 --> 0:36:20.120
<v Speaker 2>But all that aside, So desirability bias is even if

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:25.520
<v Speaker 2>disconfirming seems to have a great resonance within ourselves. Yeah,

0:36:25.960 --> 0:36:27.359
<v Speaker 2>why do we think that is okay.

0:36:27.480 --> 0:36:32.080
<v Speaker 1>So that's about motivation. Desirability bias isn't about rational updating.

0:36:32.120 --> 0:36:35.280
<v Speaker 1>It's only about motivation. Here's something that pulls them apart.

0:36:35.360 --> 0:36:38.399
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to give a simplified version of the best

0:36:38.480 --> 0:36:41.000
<v Speaker 1>date i'm aware of on this, where people in the

0:36:41.000 --> 0:36:46.600
<v Speaker 1>twenty sixteen election who favored Trump or Clinton also had

0:36:46.640 --> 0:36:50.480
<v Speaker 1>predictions about whether Trump or Clinton would win before the election.

0:36:51.280 --> 0:36:55.400
<v Speaker 1>Let's take Clinton voters. If they thought that Trump would

0:36:55.440 --> 0:36:59.600
<v Speaker 1>win and then they were given information that suggested Clinton

0:36:59.600 --> 0:37:04.160
<v Speaker 1>would win, they found it particularly credible. Now that was

0:37:04.200 --> 0:37:09.120
<v Speaker 1>disconfirming information. It suggested what they believed would happen was false,

0:37:09.560 --> 0:37:13.440
<v Speaker 1>but it was pleasing information. It suggested that the information

0:37:13.600 --> 0:37:17.440
<v Speaker 1>they were receiving would make them smile rather than suffer.

0:37:17.840 --> 0:37:21.200
<v Speaker 1>And it worked exactly the same for Trump voters who

0:37:21.280 --> 0:37:24.200
<v Speaker 1>thought that Trump would lose, but then when they got

0:37:24.239 --> 0:37:28.319
<v Speaker 1>information suggesting that Trump would win, they thought, I'll believe that.

0:37:28.800 --> 0:37:32.000
<v Speaker 1>And it's because it was desirable. So we're just learning

0:37:32.040 --> 0:37:36.320
<v Speaker 1>about desirability bias. It has an overlap with optimism bias.

0:37:36.320 --> 0:37:40.080
<v Speaker 1>It has implications for law. So in law and among

0:37:40.160 --> 0:37:45.040
<v Speaker 1>real lawyers, you can create something pretty funny instantly which

0:37:45.080 --> 0:37:48.000
<v Speaker 1>is you tell them, you know, imagine you're representing the

0:37:48.000 --> 0:37:51.080
<v Speaker 1>plaintiff in a lawsuit, what are the chances the person

0:37:51.120 --> 0:37:53.560
<v Speaker 1>will win? They say really high. If you ask the

0:37:53.560 --> 0:37:56.120
<v Speaker 1>same kind of people, you're representing the defendant, what's the

0:37:56.200 --> 0:37:59.160
<v Speaker 1>chance the defendant will win, they say the chances urge

0:37:59.160 --> 0:38:01.920
<v Speaker 1>are really high. So you can instantly put people in

0:38:01.960 --> 0:38:04.520
<v Speaker 1>the role of plane off lawyer or defense consul and

0:38:04.560 --> 0:38:07.920
<v Speaker 1>that their predictions about outcomes will fit with what they

0:38:08.000 --> 0:38:12.600
<v Speaker 1>think is desirable given the role they assumed thirty seconds ago.

0:38:13.200 --> 0:38:16.920
<v Speaker 2>So that's kind of interesting. Let's relate this to another book,

0:38:17.120 --> 0:38:22.960
<v Speaker 2>How change happens. When we look at things sexual harassment, smoking,

0:38:23.120 --> 0:38:27.000
<v Speaker 2>white supremacy, gay riots, climate change, seems like there's been

0:38:27.120 --> 0:38:31.640
<v Speaker 2>an ongoing evolution. Some of these things are very gradual,

0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:35.960
<v Speaker 2>even things like seat belts. So suddenly, I think the

0:38:36.080 --> 0:38:39.520
<v Speaker 2>number today is something like ten or fifteen percent of

0:38:39.520 --> 0:38:42.200
<v Speaker 2>people don't use seat belts, But the number was forty

0:38:42.239 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 2>to fifty percent for long, long periods of time until

0:38:46.200 --> 0:38:50.400
<v Speaker 2>we started with the beeping to nudge them to do that.

0:38:50.920 --> 0:38:54.640
<v Speaker 2>So tell us a little bit. How does social change happen?

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:59.000
<v Speaker 2>Is this Hemingway esk or is it continually gradual, and

0:38:59.080 --> 0:38:59.839
<v Speaker 2>not all at once.

0:39:00.560 --> 0:39:05.200
<v Speaker 1>Well, okay, So to understand this we need to have

0:39:05.239 --> 0:39:10.080
<v Speaker 1>some moving parts. One thing is that people have in

0:39:10.120 --> 0:39:15.600
<v Speaker 1>their heads beliefs and desires that they don't tell anyone about.

0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:21.960
<v Speaker 1>So you might think, I think that violence against people

0:39:21.960 --> 0:39:26.120
<v Speaker 1>of color is pervasive and horrible, or you might think

0:39:26.200 --> 0:39:29.319
<v Speaker 1>I think meat eating is a really bad idea, or

0:39:29.360 --> 0:39:33.120
<v Speaker 1>you might think I think gun rights are very important

0:39:33.480 --> 0:39:37.520
<v Speaker 1>and it's terrible that there are people in the United

0:39:37.560 --> 0:39:41.280
<v Speaker 1>States who are seeking to disarm the American public. Okay,

0:39:41.320 --> 0:39:43.719
<v Speaker 1>people who think all of those three things, at some

0:39:43.840 --> 0:39:48.360
<v Speaker 1>point over the last fifty years have shut up thinking

0:39:48.400 --> 0:39:51.480
<v Speaker 1>if they say any of those things, they will be

0:39:51.560 --> 0:39:55.960
<v Speaker 1>ostracized or disliked or something I think of political correctness

0:39:56.280 --> 0:40:00.360
<v Speaker 1>rit large. Sometimes what happens, and this is the first

0:40:00.360 --> 0:40:04.040
<v Speaker 1>moving part, is that people are given a permission slip.

0:40:04.680 --> 0:40:08.360
<v Speaker 1>So it might be that a political candidate says black

0:40:08.400 --> 0:40:12.680
<v Speaker 1>lives matter, or it might be that a prominent female

0:40:12.719 --> 0:40:16.520
<v Speaker 1>actor says I was sexually harassed and if you were

0:40:16.560 --> 0:40:20.239
<v Speaker 1>to say, hashtag me too on Twitter. Or it might

0:40:20.320 --> 0:40:25.279
<v Speaker 1>be that someone says, I think people should be allowed

0:40:25.280 --> 0:40:27.919
<v Speaker 1>to get married, regardless of whether I want to marry

0:40:27.920 --> 0:40:30.239
<v Speaker 1>a man or a woman, regardless of their gender, and

0:40:31.120 --> 0:40:34.200
<v Speaker 1>it's a free country. Go for it, and then people

0:40:34.320 --> 0:40:39.440
<v Speaker 1>will feel licensed to say what they had shut up about.

0:40:40.000 --> 0:40:44.120
<v Speaker 1>And for many social movements, the fall of communism is

0:40:44.160 --> 0:40:46.759
<v Speaker 1>an example. The rise of the federalist Socie in the

0:40:46.840 --> 0:40:48.960
<v Speaker 1>United States is another example. I saw that in real

0:40:49.000 --> 0:40:53.200
<v Speaker 1>time the success of President Trump the success of President Obama,

0:40:53.600 --> 0:40:57.640
<v Speaker 1>for all their differences, those all involved, in significant part

0:40:58.040 --> 0:41:01.680
<v Speaker 1>people being given a permission slip that they never had before.

0:41:02.280 --> 0:41:05.560
<v Speaker 1>The second thing that matters is that whether we want

0:41:05.600 --> 0:41:09.400
<v Speaker 1>to participate or endorse a social change depends on what

0:41:09.520 --> 0:41:12.360
<v Speaker 1>our threshold is for doing that. Now. It might be

0:41:12.400 --> 0:41:16.040
<v Speaker 1>a threshold for becoming active, It might be a threshold

0:41:16.120 --> 0:41:18.440
<v Speaker 1>for just voting for someone. It might be a threshold

0:41:18.480 --> 0:41:21.799
<v Speaker 1>for saying something. And we all have different thresholds and

0:41:21.840 --> 0:41:24.560
<v Speaker 1>we probably don't know what they are. So if you

0:41:24.640 --> 0:41:28.520
<v Speaker 1>think of some movement for something, a lot of people

0:41:28.560 --> 0:41:31.959
<v Speaker 1>participated in it, maybe the civil rights movement that Martin

0:41:32.040 --> 0:41:36.320
<v Speaker 1>Luther King helped lead, and there were people who had

0:41:36.600 --> 0:41:38.400
<v Speaker 1>a very low threshold. They were just going to go

0:41:38.520 --> 0:41:40.920
<v Speaker 1>for it. And there are others who would join if

0:41:40.960 --> 0:41:44.120
<v Speaker 1>a certain number of people joined and the thresholds really matter,

0:41:44.200 --> 0:41:47.120
<v Speaker 1>and we don't know what their distribution is in advance,

0:41:47.360 --> 0:41:50.600
<v Speaker 1>and it has to play itself out. So that happened

0:41:50.640 --> 0:41:53.920
<v Speaker 1>with seatwelt buckling. And the third thing, which is maybe

0:41:53.960 --> 0:41:57.759
<v Speaker 1>most important, is social influences. So you might buckle your

0:41:57.800 --> 0:42:01.880
<v Speaker 1>belt if everyone else is buckling their belt. There are

0:42:01.880 --> 0:42:04.480
<v Speaker 1>other people who won't buckle their belt if no one's

0:42:04.480 --> 0:42:06.759
<v Speaker 1>buckling their belt. I remember a time when if you

0:42:06.800 --> 0:42:10.080
<v Speaker 1>buckled your belt, you were saying that the driver is

0:42:10.560 --> 0:42:13.600
<v Speaker 1>extremely dangerous, or you were saying that you were yourself

0:42:13.680 --> 0:42:17.239
<v Speaker 1>really cowardly and timid. And who wants to buckle their

0:42:17.239 --> 0:42:19.840
<v Speaker 1>belt and accuse a friend of being an unsafe driver

0:42:20.320 --> 0:42:23.480
<v Speaker 1>or disclosed that you're a terrified, scared rabbit. And now

0:42:23.520 --> 0:42:27.120
<v Speaker 1>buckling a seat belt doesn't accuse the driver and doesn't

0:42:27.239 --> 0:42:30.800
<v Speaker 1>confess timidity. And did the social norm changed?

0:42:31.040 --> 0:42:34.399
<v Speaker 2>And can I share a quick story. I had Bob

0:42:34.440 --> 0:42:37.400
<v Speaker 2>Schiller on the show a couple of times, and once

0:42:37.800 --> 0:42:40.239
<v Speaker 2>he had to go someone from here, and we took

0:42:40.640 --> 0:42:42.440
<v Speaker 2>a cab together to I think was to the New

0:42:42.480 --> 0:42:44.400
<v Speaker 2>York Times building and we got into the back of

0:42:44.480 --> 0:42:49.160
<v Speaker 2>the cab and Bob buckles his safety belt in the

0:42:49.200 --> 0:42:51.839
<v Speaker 2>back of the cab. I'm like, well, here's a guy

0:42:51.840 --> 0:42:56.440
<v Speaker 2>who studies behavioral finance, and as an economist, I hadn't

0:42:56.480 --> 0:42:58.920
<v Speaker 2>really I always wear my seat belt when I'm driving

0:42:59.360 --> 0:43:01.000
<v Speaker 2>or in the front seat. You get into the back,

0:43:01.080 --> 0:43:04.440
<v Speaker 2>you don't even think about it. Maybe I've been overlooking

0:43:04.520 --> 0:43:08.120
<v Speaker 2>this because of who he was and all the social

0:43:08.160 --> 0:43:13.040
<v Speaker 2>proof involved. It changed my perspective on wearing a seat

0:43:13.040 --> 0:43:15.719
<v Speaker 2>buckle seat belt in the back of a car. It

0:43:15.800 --> 0:43:20.680
<v Speaker 2>was just like, exactly what you're describing. Suddenly the whole

0:43:20.760 --> 0:43:22.360
<v Speaker 2>framework completely shifted.

0:43:22.560 --> 0:43:25.719
<v Speaker 1>That's fantastic. That's a great example. And something like that

0:43:25.840 --> 0:43:30.440
<v Speaker 1>is happening, you know, for non political issues, for economic choices,

0:43:30.640 --> 0:43:35.520
<v Speaker 1>for investment decisions, and it happens really fast. So you

0:43:35.560 --> 0:43:39.680
<v Speaker 1>can see a flood of movement towards something or away

0:43:39.719 --> 0:43:42.759
<v Speaker 1>from something, just because people think that other people are

0:43:42.840 --> 0:43:43.800
<v Speaker 1>joining that flood.

0:43:44.000 --> 0:43:45.960
<v Speaker 2>Let's talk a little bit about this book. I'm kind

0:43:45.960 --> 0:43:49.120
<v Speaker 2>of intrigued by the idea that you started writing this

0:43:49.200 --> 0:43:52.400
<v Speaker 2>in the nineteen nineties. Is that possibly correct? That it

0:43:52.520 --> 0:43:55.880
<v Speaker 2>is correct thirty years? I thought you were so prolific,

0:43:56.480 --> 0:43:57.120
<v Speaker 2>Why so long?

0:43:57.200 --> 0:43:59.720
<v Speaker 1>It's a slow burn. This book is a slow burn.

0:44:00.520 --> 0:44:03.719
<v Speaker 1>So I thought the idea of how we decide, how

0:44:03.760 --> 0:44:06.600
<v Speaker 1>we decide. It's one of the most fundamental things of

0:44:06.640 --> 0:44:09.440
<v Speaker 1>all and I thought there should be a book on this,

0:44:09.480 --> 0:44:11.480
<v Speaker 1>and I co authored a paper on it in the

0:44:11.600 --> 0:44:16.560
<v Speaker 1>nineteen nineties, but I never figured it out until yesterday.

0:44:17.400 --> 0:44:22.759
<v Speaker 2>So how has your thinking about decision making evolved over

0:44:22.800 --> 0:44:23.400
<v Speaker 2>that time.

0:44:24.719 --> 0:44:28.440
<v Speaker 1>I think the fundamental idea, which was developed in a

0:44:28.520 --> 0:44:34.239
<v Speaker 1>paper with a philosopher omen Marglie, is that we have

0:44:34.400 --> 0:44:37.359
<v Speaker 1>an identifiable set of strategies. It's going to be very

0:44:37.400 --> 0:44:40.920
<v Speaker 1>intuitive when we're stuck. So we might flip a coin.

0:44:42.200 --> 0:44:46.240
<v Speaker 1>We might decide who's an expert. I'll trust the expert.

0:44:46.680 --> 0:44:49.120
<v Speaker 1>We might decide I'm not going to marry her, I'm

0:44:49.160 --> 0:44:52.440
<v Speaker 1>going to live with her. That's like a really small step.

0:44:52.920 --> 0:44:56.080
<v Speaker 1>We might decide that, you know, I'm just going to

0:44:56.120 --> 0:44:58.920
<v Speaker 1>opt where it's not about flipping a coin. It's not

0:44:58.960 --> 0:45:01.480
<v Speaker 1>like picking flipping a coin. It's like I'm going to

0:45:01.560 --> 0:45:04.480
<v Speaker 1>do something really big, like jump over a chasm.

0:45:05.200 --> 0:45:06.120
<v Speaker 2>Or it might mean moved.

0:45:06.440 --> 0:45:08.400
<v Speaker 1>We might think that we're going to adopt a rule

0:45:09.040 --> 0:45:13.759
<v Speaker 1>no liquor ever except maybe Saturday night. And if you

0:45:13.800 --> 0:45:18.520
<v Speaker 1>think about business decisions, each of these strategies is used

0:45:18.680 --> 0:45:22.120
<v Speaker 1>all the time, sometimes deliberately. The head of a company

0:45:22.160 --> 0:45:25.200
<v Speaker 1>will say, here's our rule, or we'll say, if we're stuck,

0:45:25.239 --> 0:45:27.640
<v Speaker 1>we're going to go to this person, or we'll say,

0:45:27.719 --> 0:45:30.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's a coin flip. And we're not as

0:45:30.719 --> 0:45:33.360
<v Speaker 1>disciplined sometimes as we should be in thinking about these

0:45:33.400 --> 0:45:37.160
<v Speaker 1>But that's the basic framework. What I hadn't thought through

0:45:37.440 --> 0:45:40.960
<v Speaker 1>was how do we decide whether to acquire information? How

0:45:40.960 --> 0:45:44.319
<v Speaker 1>did we decide what to believe? How do we think

0:45:44.320 --> 0:45:48.720
<v Speaker 1>about algorithms? How do we think about freedom? And these

0:45:49.520 --> 0:45:52.719
<v Speaker 1>questions which are all basically part of the same thing

0:45:53.719 --> 0:45:57.160
<v Speaker 1>we're stirring around in the head. And I kind of

0:45:57.160 --> 0:46:00.360
<v Speaker 1>figured out at least provisional responses to the question students

0:46:00.400 --> 0:46:01.440
<v Speaker 1>in the course of the book.

0:46:01.520 --> 0:46:06.520
<v Speaker 2>So, opt, delegate, no believe are the four big frameworks.

0:46:07.280 --> 0:46:11.480
<v Speaker 2>But given your background in behavioral finance, let's talk a

0:46:11.480 --> 0:46:15.880
<v Speaker 2>bit about biases. How should we contextualize heuristics that can

0:46:16.160 --> 0:46:20.279
<v Speaker 2>derail our cognitive processes when someone is trying to make

0:46:20.320 --> 0:46:23.319
<v Speaker 2>a rational decision. Maybe they do, maybe they don't.

0:46:23.960 --> 0:46:30.000
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So one bias is present bias where today really

0:46:30.080 --> 0:46:34.480
<v Speaker 1>matters and the future is a foreign country called later Land,

0:46:35.000 --> 0:46:37.480
<v Speaker 1>and we're not sure, we're ever going to visit, and

0:46:37.520 --> 0:46:41.920
<v Speaker 1>that actually has roots in the brain present bias. And

0:46:41.960 --> 0:46:45.160
<v Speaker 1>we know if we're baking investment choices, if we think

0:46:45.360 --> 0:46:49.960
<v Speaker 1>what we want to really maximize is wealth this week,

0:46:50.480 --> 0:46:53.680
<v Speaker 1>that's probably dumb. It's going to produce a lot of problems.

0:46:53.719 --> 0:46:56.880
<v Speaker 1>This is your field, of course, and we might decide

0:46:57.000 --> 0:47:00.880
<v Speaker 1>we're just going to adopt rule for investments which will

0:47:01.080 --> 0:47:05.520
<v Speaker 1>counteract our own present bias. Or we might think in

0:47:05.880 --> 0:47:09.640
<v Speaker 1>state government, let's say that unrealistic optimism is part of

0:47:09.680 --> 0:47:13.239
<v Speaker 1>the human species. Thank goodness for that. If you're being

0:47:13.360 --> 0:47:15.880
<v Speaker 1>chased by a lion, you ought not to think the

0:47:15.920 --> 0:47:19.080
<v Speaker 1>lines faster than I am, I'm going to die soon.

0:47:19.200 --> 0:47:22.319
<v Speaker 1>You ought to think I can really run. That's optimistic,

0:47:22.360 --> 0:47:24.239
<v Speaker 1>it's probably unrealistically optimistic.

0:47:24.400 --> 0:47:26.759
<v Speaker 2>Or just run faster than the guy you w Yeah.

0:47:26.480 --> 0:47:30.000
<v Speaker 1>Completely completely, and then the line will eat That other person,

0:47:30.080 --> 0:47:32.640
<v Speaker 1>who is profoundly to be hoped is not a dear friend.

0:47:33.239 --> 0:47:37.439
<v Speaker 1>So optimistic bias can create problems. So we might think

0:47:37.480 --> 0:47:42.640
<v Speaker 1>that given unrealistic optimism with respect to medical decisions, we're

0:47:43.000 --> 0:47:46.920
<v Speaker 1>just going to rely on the doctor. That's one thing

0:47:46.920 --> 0:47:50.000
<v Speaker 1>you might do. Or we might think, if you're a judge.

0:47:50.120 --> 0:47:53.200
<v Speaker 1>You might think I'm prone to mistakes with respect this

0:47:53.280 --> 0:47:56.440
<v Speaker 1>might be the future. I'm prone to mistakes with respect

0:47:56.440 --> 0:47:58.880
<v Speaker 1>to dealing with certain kinds of people what's call the

0:47:59.000 --> 0:48:03.680
<v Speaker 1>criminal defendants, and sentencing might be biased against one group

0:48:03.760 --> 0:48:05.879
<v Speaker 1>or another. I don't even know. I'm going to rely

0:48:05.920 --> 0:48:07.680
<v Speaker 1>on the algorithm.

0:48:07.719 --> 0:48:12.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm always fascinated by the sentencing studies that show the

0:48:12.200 --> 0:48:14.440
<v Speaker 2>longer judge is sitting on the bench that day, the

0:48:14.560 --> 0:48:18.839
<v Speaker 2>closer we are to lunch, the worse the sentences are.

0:48:19.040 --> 0:48:24.560
<v Speaker 2>It seems almost as if they're not algorithms, they're fallible

0:48:24.640 --> 0:48:28.000
<v Speaker 2>humans making decisions, some of which are not great.

0:48:28.239 --> 0:48:31.239
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the most fun of these kinds of studies is

0:48:31.320 --> 0:48:35.640
<v Speaker 1>if the judges football team won over the weekend, the

0:48:35.719 --> 0:48:38.560
<v Speaker 1>judge is more lenient on the next day, and then

0:48:38.600 --> 0:48:40.600
<v Speaker 1>it's the favor of football team lost.

0:48:41.920 --> 0:48:46.040
<v Speaker 2>Amazing. So let's talk about some other influences. We've talked

0:48:46.080 --> 0:48:51.040
<v Speaker 2>about social media and mass media, and there's misinformation is ripe,

0:48:51.040 --> 0:48:55.360
<v Speaker 2>there's even propaganda and social networks. How does that impact

0:48:55.520 --> 0:49:00.000
<v Speaker 2>our decision making process, especially if it seems the peace

0:49:00.000 --> 0:49:04.080
<v Speaker 2>people most affected are the least aware of these these

0:49:04.680 --> 0:49:07.680
<v Speaker 2>you know, very very below the radar. Or not so

0:49:07.760 --> 0:49:10.719
<v Speaker 2>below the radar influences.

0:49:11.880 --> 0:49:16.680
<v Speaker 1>This is a fantastic question. And here's something over the

0:49:16.800 --> 0:49:20.680
<v Speaker 1>last maybe fifteen years, when Dick Taylor and I started

0:49:20.680 --> 0:49:25.680
<v Speaker 1>working on nudges, we were and we remain very upbeat

0:49:26.120 --> 0:49:32.680
<v Speaker 1>about the potential use of GPS like things to help

0:49:32.800 --> 0:49:36.799
<v Speaker 1>overcome people's biases. When I say GPS like things, I

0:49:36.840 --> 0:49:40.040
<v Speaker 1>mean a GPS device. It's a nudge. It helps you

0:49:40.160 --> 0:49:42.480
<v Speaker 1>get you where you want to go. It gives you

0:49:42.520 --> 0:49:45.440
<v Speaker 1>the best route. If you don't like what it says,

0:49:45.480 --> 0:49:49.200
<v Speaker 1>you can ignore it. So it's completely freedom producing or

0:49:49.239 --> 0:49:53.759
<v Speaker 1>freedom maintaining. And then there are other things like a

0:49:53.840 --> 0:49:57.680
<v Speaker 1>package that says this has shrimp in it. Personally I am

0:49:57.640 --> 0:50:00.840
<v Speaker 1>allergic to shrimp, so hooray for that disclosure. Or you

0:50:00.880 --> 0:50:04.160
<v Speaker 1>can have something that tells you a warning about side

0:50:04.200 --> 0:50:07.480
<v Speaker 1>effects and they might be relevant to your choices. These

0:50:07.520 --> 0:50:11.960
<v Speaker 1>are all nudges, okay, and they are designed to help

0:50:12.280 --> 0:50:17.719
<v Speaker 1>people deal with their cognitive limits. They might involve a bias,

0:50:17.880 --> 0:50:21.400
<v Speaker 1>they might involve an absence of information, but we know

0:50:21.719 --> 0:50:24.600
<v Speaker 1>and this is what at least I wasn't sufficiently alert

0:50:24.680 --> 0:50:28.480
<v Speaker 1>to in two thousand and eight that self interested or

0:50:28.600 --> 0:50:35.719
<v Speaker 1>malevolent types can use behavioral biases to manipulate people. So

0:50:35.760 --> 0:50:39.000
<v Speaker 1>you might use present bias to try to get people

0:50:39.040 --> 0:50:42.960
<v Speaker 1>to buy some product where the long term economic effects

0:50:43.000 --> 0:50:45.960
<v Speaker 1>are horrifying though the first week is going to be

0:50:45.960 --> 0:50:49.799
<v Speaker 1>pretty good. Or you might get people to buy some

0:50:50.040 --> 0:50:53.680
<v Speaker 1>product where you'd have to be crazy optimistic to think

0:50:53.680 --> 0:50:56.319
<v Speaker 1>it's a sensible thing to do because the risk associated

0:50:56.360 --> 0:50:59.360
<v Speaker 1>with it or horrible, or and I think this is

0:50:59.400 --> 0:51:03.240
<v Speaker 1>the most of all, you might use people's limited attention

0:51:03.920 --> 0:51:06.719
<v Speaker 1>to get them, let's say, to opt into something which

0:51:06.800 --> 0:51:08.640
<v Speaker 1>is going to be really hard to opt out of,

0:51:09.080 --> 0:51:13.360
<v Speaker 1>and once they've opted into it, they're stuck with something

0:51:13.400 --> 0:51:17.640
<v Speaker 1>that's going to be very expensive and not beneficial. So

0:51:18.000 --> 0:51:23.240
<v Speaker 1>the manipulation of people, we're just talking about the economic

0:51:23.280 --> 0:51:29.439
<v Speaker 1>sphere right now poses a very serious challenge, and social media, etc.

0:51:30.280 --> 0:51:35.640
<v Speaker 1>Make this unprecedentedly doable. I've worked with private sector entities

0:51:35.719 --> 0:51:40.400
<v Speaker 1>which are trying to use behavioral stuff to improve outcomes

0:51:40.400 --> 0:51:44.920
<v Speaker 1>for their customers and their investors, and that's fantastic. But

0:51:45.080 --> 0:51:49.160
<v Speaker 1>there are others who were trying to improve outcomes for themselves,

0:51:49.239 --> 0:51:52.120
<v Speaker 1>which is also fantastic, but not if it's at the

0:51:52.160 --> 0:51:53.640
<v Speaker 1>expense of the most vulnerable.

0:51:54.080 --> 0:51:59.040
<v Speaker 2>So you mentioned present bias. I love this Danny Kahneman quote,

0:51:59.320 --> 0:52:01.879
<v Speaker 2>nothing in life life is as important as you think

0:52:01.920 --> 0:52:06.600
<v Speaker 2>it is when you're thinking about it. That really says everything.

0:52:06.840 --> 0:52:11.600
<v Speaker 2>Talk about present bias. In the moment, it's very hard

0:52:11.680 --> 0:52:16.520
<v Speaker 2>to let anything else come into the picture. How should

0:52:16.560 --> 0:52:20.520
<v Speaker 2>we act around that and how should public policy be

0:52:20.600 --> 0:52:25.160
<v Speaker 2>set up to not let people's wetwear be taken advantage?

0:52:25.400 --> 0:52:29.880
<v Speaker 1>That's fantastic. So the only exception to Connomon's phrase nothing

0:52:29.920 --> 0:52:31.920
<v Speaker 1>in life is as important as you think it is

0:52:31.960 --> 0:52:35.560
<v Speaker 1>when you're thinking about it is that statement. That statement

0:52:35.719 --> 0:52:38.000
<v Speaker 1>is as important as it is when you're thinking about it.

0:52:39.880 --> 0:52:45.799
<v Speaker 1>So it might be that policy makers can put on

0:52:45.880 --> 0:52:51.120
<v Speaker 1>people's viewscreens things that they're not thinking about. So let's

0:52:51.120 --> 0:52:54.600
<v Speaker 1>say you're buying some product and that there are add

0:52:54.640 --> 0:52:59.040
<v Speaker 1>on fees of various kinds that are findable but not

0:52:59.080 --> 0:53:03.000
<v Speaker 1>really there aren't thinking about them. To put those add

0:53:03.000 --> 0:53:06.840
<v Speaker 1>on prices on people's viewscreens is a really good idea

0:53:07.480 --> 0:53:12.279
<v Speaker 1>for companies actually to do that and use competition to

0:53:12.320 --> 0:53:16.920
<v Speaker 1>promote fuller clarity on the part of consumers. That's a

0:53:16.960 --> 0:53:21.040
<v Speaker 1>really good idea. I think for securities, the securities laws,

0:53:21.080 --> 0:53:24.200
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot to say about them, but in so

0:53:24.360 --> 0:53:28.680
<v Speaker 1>far as they're trying to prevent people from falling victim

0:53:28.800 --> 0:53:33.719
<v Speaker 1>to present bias or limited attention or on realistic optimism,

0:53:34.280 --> 0:53:36.080
<v Speaker 1>that's an extremely worthy.

0:53:35.719 --> 0:53:40.880
<v Speaker 2>Goal, really quite intriguing. So I love this line in

0:53:40.920 --> 0:53:45.440
<v Speaker 2>the book get drunk on wine poetry or virtue in

0:53:46.080 --> 0:53:50.080
<v Speaker 2>Decisions about decisions. Tell us what that means, wine poetry

0:53:50.200 --> 0:53:50.760
<v Speaker 2>or virtue.

0:53:50.840 --> 0:53:54.239
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So that's from a poem by Bodelaire, which is

0:53:54.280 --> 0:54:01.200
<v Speaker 1>the improbable spirit guide of the book, And the title

0:54:01.200 --> 0:54:05.640
<v Speaker 1>of Bodelayer's poem is get Drunk, and that for a

0:54:05.680 --> 0:54:08.360
<v Speaker 1>law professor to celebrate a poem with that title is

0:54:08.400 --> 0:54:13.640
<v Speaker 1>a little unlikely, but I'm going to own it. Where

0:54:13.719 --> 0:54:18.319
<v Speaker 1>what bodal Layer says by get Drunk is basically, you know,

0:54:18.440 --> 0:54:23.040
<v Speaker 1>take life by the horns and be thrilled by it.

0:54:23.080 --> 0:54:28.720
<v Speaker 1>And there's also something about human diversity that what makes

0:54:28.760 --> 0:54:34.239
<v Speaker 1>you get thrilled. Maybe wine good. Don't over use it,

0:54:34.760 --> 0:54:37.720
<v Speaker 1>but go for it if that's what it gets you thrilled,

0:54:37.880 --> 0:54:41.200
<v Speaker 1>or if it's poetry, go for that, or if it's

0:54:41.280 --> 0:54:47.360
<v Speaker 1>virtue good works, that's admirable, of course, and if it

0:54:47.440 --> 0:54:51.200
<v Speaker 1>also is for you like wine, hooray. Now, of course

0:54:51.239 --> 0:54:54.160
<v Speaker 1>we want to say I think that maybe a little

0:54:54.160 --> 0:54:55.680
<v Speaker 1>more in the way of good works and a little

0:54:55.760 --> 0:54:58.600
<v Speaker 1>less in the way of wine is a good thing.

0:54:58.680 --> 0:55:02.160
<v Speaker 1>But that's a buzz kill on my part. And the

0:55:02.200 --> 0:55:04.799
<v Speaker 1>point of this part of the book is when we're

0:55:04.800 --> 0:55:10.440
<v Speaker 1>making about decisions, about decisions, think about what makes life fabulous.

0:55:11.000 --> 0:55:15.120
<v Speaker 1>That's really important. And I think the behavioral types, including yours,

0:55:15.160 --> 0:55:20.720
<v Speaker 1>truly often maybe overweight a little bit what makes life long,

0:55:21.440 --> 0:55:25.480
<v Speaker 1>and underweight a little bit what makes life fabulous. So

0:55:25.560 --> 0:55:32.040
<v Speaker 1>the first generation of behavioral work is really healthier, wealthier, safer,

0:55:33.400 --> 0:55:38.239
<v Speaker 1>more prosperous, and those are really important, but also kind

0:55:38.320 --> 0:55:44.160
<v Speaker 1>of better days. And Baudelaire get drunk. He's all over that.

0:55:44.600 --> 0:55:52.640
<v Speaker 2>So I interpreted Baudelaire as consumption, art, and intellect. Those

0:55:52.680 --> 0:55:55.840
<v Speaker 2>are the three broad topics which seem to cover a

0:55:55.440 --> 0:56:00.320
<v Speaker 2>lot of human behavior. But let's stick with happiness. You

0:56:00.800 --> 0:56:04.920
<v Speaker 2>reference some surveys that show people are less happy than ever,

0:56:05.640 --> 0:56:08.799
<v Speaker 2>even though by any objective measure, whether you're looking at

0:56:08.800 --> 0:56:13.560
<v Speaker 2>crime or healthcare or longevity except for the past couple

0:56:13.560 --> 0:56:19.960
<v Speaker 2>of years post pandemic, or poverty, or literacy, or just

0:56:20.000 --> 0:56:25.120
<v Speaker 2>go down the list by just about any measure, Americans

0:56:25.200 --> 0:56:27.680
<v Speaker 2>and humanity as a whole are better off than they

0:56:27.719 --> 0:56:32.359
<v Speaker 2>were twenty forty sixty years ago. Why do surveys say

0:56:32.440 --> 0:56:35.920
<v Speaker 2>people are unhappy? Is there a problem with this survey?

0:56:36.560 --> 0:56:39.239
<v Speaker 2>Is it twenty four to seven social media? Or do

0:56:39.320 --> 0:56:42.160
<v Speaker 2>we just not know how good it is?

0:56:42.719 --> 0:56:48.719
<v Speaker 1>It's a fantastic question. So let's think about two things. First,

0:56:49.960 --> 0:56:53.600
<v Speaker 1>day to day experience. Are people thinking that was a

0:56:53.640 --> 0:56:57.920
<v Speaker 1>great day, Monday was terrific, Tuesday was good, Wednesday not

0:56:58.080 --> 0:57:02.120
<v Speaker 1>so much. That's one thing. The other is not day

0:57:02.160 --> 0:57:04.840
<v Speaker 1>to day experience, but what kind of lives are people having?

0:57:05.320 --> 0:57:09.240
<v Speaker 1>Are they going to the doctor a lot? Are they learning?

0:57:09.680 --> 0:57:14.160
<v Speaker 1>Are they being treated with respect? People care about two

0:57:14.200 --> 0:57:17.960
<v Speaker 1>things that happiness doesn't capture. One is how meaningful their

0:57:17.960 --> 0:57:21.640
<v Speaker 1>life is, and the other is how much psychological richness

0:57:21.760 --> 0:57:24.440
<v Speaker 1>or let's call it diversity in their life they have.

0:57:24.760 --> 0:57:26.840
<v Speaker 1>So they might have a meaningful, happy life, but they

0:57:26.920 --> 0:57:28.960
<v Speaker 1>might be doing the same thing over and over again.

0:57:29.240 --> 0:57:31.680
<v Speaker 1>People don't like that. A lot of people don't like

0:57:31.760 --> 0:57:35.040
<v Speaker 1>that so much. They want to do something else. So

0:57:35.680 --> 0:57:41.560
<v Speaker 1>happiness meaning psychological richness, and it's important to say that

0:57:41.640 --> 0:57:44.280
<v Speaker 1>day to day happiness is really important. But it isn't

0:57:44.320 --> 0:57:49.680
<v Speaker 1>everything now with the surveys suggesting that some people and

0:57:49.800 --> 0:57:53.520
<v Speaker 1>some populations, maybe America is less happy now than it

0:57:53.680 --> 0:57:57.000
<v Speaker 1>was a certain point. I don't know whether it's an

0:57:57.000 --> 0:58:04.600
<v Speaker 1>expressive statement that pandemic time terrible or political polarization I'm

0:58:04.640 --> 0:58:09.200
<v Speaker 1>not liking that, or whether instead it's actually my life

0:58:09.280 --> 0:58:11.600
<v Speaker 1>isn't so good. So I don't think we've gotten to

0:58:11.680 --> 0:58:15.800
<v Speaker 1>the bottom of what the data actually shows about the

0:58:15.880 --> 0:58:19.720
<v Speaker 1>happiness part. If it is the case that people actually

0:58:19.800 --> 0:58:24.040
<v Speaker 1>are less happy, if that's true, that's a very serious,

0:58:26.280 --> 0:58:29.280
<v Speaker 1>not good thing, and we want to figure out why.

0:58:29.320 --> 0:58:32.360
<v Speaker 1>When I was in the White House under President Obama,

0:58:32.440 --> 0:58:36.440
<v Speaker 1>we did as the government always does, do cost benefit reports,

0:58:36.800 --> 0:58:40.960
<v Speaker 1>cost and benefits of regulations, and we added stuff on

0:58:41.800 --> 0:58:46.120
<v Speaker 1>happiness unsubjective well being. In the UK government, they're very

0:58:46.120 --> 0:58:50.600
<v Speaker 1>concerned about this, and I do think it's an important

0:58:50.600 --> 0:58:53.960
<v Speaker 1>field of endeavor to try to figure out are people

0:58:54.240 --> 0:58:57.680
<v Speaker 1>thinking life is great or is not so great? And

0:58:57.760 --> 0:59:02.680
<v Speaker 1>is that translated into depression and anxiety, etc.

0:59:03.520 --> 0:59:06.040
<v Speaker 2>So let me push back a little bit on the

0:59:06.120 --> 0:59:10.040
<v Speaker 2>use of surveys and Amazon's mechanical turk and all these things.

0:59:10.560 --> 0:59:15.000
<v Speaker 2>So the granddaddy of this in my field is when

0:59:15.120 --> 0:59:18.439
<v Speaker 2>you are setting up a portfolio for an investor, Hey

0:59:18.480 --> 0:59:21.280
<v Speaker 2>tell us about your risk tolerance. So you conservative, are

0:59:21.320 --> 0:59:26.520
<v Speaker 2>you moderate? Are you aggressive? What's your investment posture? And

0:59:26.920 --> 0:59:30.680
<v Speaker 2>whatever they tell you is a lie because all they're

0:59:30.720 --> 0:59:33.480
<v Speaker 2>really telling you is here's how the market has done

0:59:33.480 --> 0:59:36.120
<v Speaker 2>over the past ninety days. And if it's gone down,

0:59:36.360 --> 0:59:39.640
<v Speaker 2>I'm very risk averse, and if it's gone up, I'm

0:59:39.760 --> 0:59:43.760
<v Speaker 2>very aggressive. Every time I see a survey, I can't

0:59:43.760 --> 0:59:45.480
<v Speaker 2>help but think how much you're going to spend on

0:59:45.560 --> 0:59:49.120
<v Speaker 2>Christmas gifts this year? What is the direction of the economy?

0:59:49.320 --> 0:59:51.080
<v Speaker 2>Are we on the right track or on the wrong track.

0:59:51.240 --> 0:59:55.520
<v Speaker 2>I love the surveys right after the presidential election, where

0:59:55.640 --> 0:59:59.320
<v Speaker 2>what's the city of the economy? Suddenly the Democrats were here,

0:59:59.360 --> 1:00:01.920
<v Speaker 2>the Republicans where there, their guy loses it flips and

1:00:01.960 --> 1:00:05.440
<v Speaker 2>then the next election the same thing happens. So what

1:00:05.600 --> 1:00:09.400
<v Speaker 2>is the value of surveys when people really don't know

1:00:09.480 --> 1:00:13.400
<v Speaker 2>what they think, hardly know what they feel, and have

1:00:13.480 --> 1:00:15.160
<v Speaker 2>no idea what's going to happen in the future.

1:00:15.800 --> 1:00:19.680
<v Speaker 1>That's also a fantastic question. I'm doing surveys right now

1:00:19.800 --> 1:00:23.640
<v Speaker 1>that is right now on whether people like algorithms, And

1:00:23.680 --> 1:00:26.720
<v Speaker 1>so I'm asking people, would you choose an algorithm or

1:00:26.800 --> 1:00:30.000
<v Speaker 1>a person with respect to an investment decision, or an

1:00:30.040 --> 1:00:33.040
<v Speaker 1>algorithm or a person with respect to a vacation where

1:00:33.040 --> 1:00:35.480
<v Speaker 1>you're going to go, or algorithm or a person with

1:00:35.560 --> 1:00:38.600
<v Speaker 1>respect to health decisions? And I'll tell you what makes

1:00:38.640 --> 1:00:42.720
<v Speaker 1>me think that the very preliminary results you're gonna be

1:00:42.720 --> 1:00:46.760
<v Speaker 1>the first person to hear it are not useless. That

1:00:46.960 --> 1:00:51.400
<v Speaker 1>if you tell people things about the algorithm which give

1:00:51.480 --> 1:00:54.360
<v Speaker 1>people clarity on the data on which the algorithm is

1:00:54.400 --> 1:00:56.200
<v Speaker 1>relying and like there's a lot of it.

1:00:56.080 --> 1:00:59.280
<v Speaker 2>Like the MRI or cat skins that the algos clearly

1:00:59.320 --> 1:01:00.400
<v Speaker 2>do better than the humans.

1:01:00.480 --> 1:01:02.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's in the direction of that what I did.

1:01:03.440 --> 1:01:07.760
<v Speaker 1>Then the percentage of people who embrace the algorithm jumps dramatically.

1:01:08.440 --> 1:01:11.200
<v Speaker 1>And if you tell people things about the human alternative,

1:01:11.640 --> 1:01:13.720
<v Speaker 1>like this is a doctor who's been a specialist in

1:01:13.800 --> 1:01:17.440
<v Speaker 1>this for thirty years, then the interest in the human

1:01:17.480 --> 1:01:22.200
<v Speaker 1>being increases significantly. So the direction of the results in

1:01:22.240 --> 1:01:26.080
<v Speaker 1>the survey about which you would rely is consistent with

1:01:26.160 --> 1:01:30.920
<v Speaker 1>thinking people are attentive to whether the algorithm is just

1:01:31.000 --> 1:01:33.840
<v Speaker 1>a thing or whether it's got a terrific data set,

1:01:34.040 --> 1:01:37.040
<v Speaker 1>and whether the person is just a person or someone

1:01:37.040 --> 1:01:40.600
<v Speaker 1>who has thirty years of experience in the vacation sector.

1:01:40.880 --> 1:01:43.920
<v Speaker 1>Let's say, so that survey and stop of mind for

1:01:43.960 --> 1:01:49.400
<v Speaker 1>me because I'm working on it now, seems instructive and TBD.

1:01:49.600 --> 1:01:51.480
<v Speaker 1>This might be a book in the fullness of time.

1:01:52.680 --> 1:01:53.960
<v Speaker 2>I would expect nothing less that.

1:01:54.240 --> 1:01:59.000
<v Speaker 1>With respect to happiness, let's consider three things, shall we

1:01:59.520 --> 1:02:03.480
<v Speaker 1>efforts to measure people's experience in real time, So, like,

1:02:03.640 --> 1:02:06.040
<v Speaker 1>on a scale of one to ten, right now, I'm

1:02:06.280 --> 1:02:10.080
<v Speaker 1>approximately ten because I'm really enjoying talking to this, talking

1:02:10.080 --> 1:02:13.280
<v Speaker 1>about this. I find that ten, of course I would.

1:02:13.320 --> 1:02:16.920
<v Speaker 1>But I find people's answers how happy are you right now?

1:02:17.280 --> 1:02:20.080
<v Speaker 1>How anxious are you? How stressed I are you? How

1:02:20.280 --> 1:02:24.920
<v Speaker 1>angry are you? Angry? Zero, stressed me right now? Two,

1:02:25.560 --> 1:02:26.840
<v Speaker 1>anxious me right now?

1:02:26.880 --> 1:02:27.280
<v Speaker 2>One?

1:02:27.720 --> 1:02:31.439
<v Speaker 1>And these are all credible in real time. That's one

1:02:31.480 --> 1:02:34.520
<v Speaker 1>way of doing it that seems pretty good at getting

1:02:34.520 --> 1:02:36.880
<v Speaker 1>how people are. If people are in the midst of

1:02:36.960 --> 1:02:40.920
<v Speaker 1>dealing with a really angry and difficult young child, people

1:02:41.600 --> 1:02:45.479
<v Speaker 1>give answers, I'm really not having a great time right now,

1:02:45.520 --> 1:02:49.120
<v Speaker 1>and that's credible about their emotional state. Then there's at

1:02:49.160 --> 1:02:52.160
<v Speaker 1>the opposite spectrum, how satisfied are you with your life?

1:02:53.160 --> 1:02:56.440
<v Speaker 1>And these are crude because it might be that if

1:02:56.480 --> 1:02:59.040
<v Speaker 1>people had like a really good date the night before,

1:02:59.280 --> 1:03:05.360
<v Speaker 1>they'll say and so. But there is stability on these things,

1:03:05.600 --> 1:03:09.400
<v Speaker 1>and they're within nation differences that are interesting and seems

1:03:09.400 --> 1:03:12.480
<v Speaker 1>to be telling us something. So there's a lot of

1:03:12.520 --> 1:03:16.480
<v Speaker 1>work on whether life satisfaction is kind of crude but

1:03:16.600 --> 1:03:20.680
<v Speaker 1>directionally informative. I tend to think yes. And then there

1:03:20.680 --> 1:03:24.160
<v Speaker 1>are things in between where you ask people at the

1:03:24.240 --> 1:03:27.160
<v Speaker 1>end of the day, and Danny Konneman is pioneered this

1:03:27.400 --> 1:03:30.680
<v Speaker 1>called the day reconstruction method. You ask people how were you?

1:03:31.200 --> 1:03:34.360
<v Speaker 1>This is less demanding for the experimenter than trying to

1:03:34.360 --> 1:03:37.720
<v Speaker 1>ask people every second how are you? And if you

1:03:37.760 --> 1:03:39.880
<v Speaker 1>ask people that enough, they're going to say, I'm really

1:03:39.960 --> 1:03:43.160
<v Speaker 1>irritated because you keep asking me how I am? So

1:03:43.400 --> 1:03:45.520
<v Speaker 1>condom an asked at the end of the day, how

1:03:45.560 --> 1:03:47.920
<v Speaker 1>were you when you were taking care of your kids?

1:03:47.960 --> 1:03:50.600
<v Speaker 1>How were you when you were on social media? How

1:03:50.600 --> 1:03:52.560
<v Speaker 1>were you when you were at work? How were you

1:03:52.600 --> 1:03:55.920
<v Speaker 1>when you were commuting? And the results are pretty credible.

1:03:56.240 --> 1:03:59.640
<v Speaker 1>People really don't like commuting, and they really do like

1:03:59.720 --> 1:04:03.480
<v Speaker 1>let's intimate relations.

1:04:02.200 --> 1:04:03.200
<v Speaker 2>To say the very least.

1:04:03.320 --> 1:04:07.400
<v Speaker 1>That people are very, very positive about that.

1:04:07.400 --> 1:04:10.600
<v Speaker 2>That's quite fascinating, Which leads us to talk about the

1:04:10.640 --> 1:04:14.440
<v Speaker 2>book you wrote on Star Wars, The World according to

1:04:14.520 --> 1:04:19.520
<v Speaker 2>Star Wars. This became a New York Times bestseller, great reviews.

1:04:20.120 --> 1:04:23.360
<v Speaker 2>What led Harvard law professor to write a book on

1:04:23.400 --> 1:04:24.080
<v Speaker 2>Star Wars?

1:04:24.560 --> 1:04:29.160
<v Speaker 1>My son, who was six or seven, got obsessed with

1:04:29.280 --> 1:04:33.280
<v Speaker 1>Star Wars and we watched it together, and I thought,

1:04:33.680 --> 1:04:35.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, I like Star Wars. At that point, I

1:04:35.880 --> 1:04:38.920
<v Speaker 1>wasn't crazy about Star Wars, and I thought, what is

1:04:38.960 --> 1:04:43.600
<v Speaker 1>it about Star Wars so that my young boy would

1:04:43.640 --> 1:04:47.000
<v Speaker 1>go nuts for it? When it's a long time ago?

1:04:47.680 --> 1:04:53.400
<v Speaker 1>And so I got focused on its enduring appeal, and

1:04:53.680 --> 1:04:55.880
<v Speaker 1>then I thought the idea of writing a book about

1:04:55.920 --> 1:05:00.400
<v Speaker 1>it was too crazy not to go forth with No

1:05:00.560 --> 1:05:02.920
<v Speaker 1>publisher for a long time had even a little bit

1:05:03.000 --> 1:05:06.320
<v Speaker 1>interested at really, so I almost thought I was going

1:05:06.400 --> 1:05:10.440
<v Speaker 1>to publish it myself as something. I talked to my

1:05:10.720 --> 1:05:13.560
<v Speaker 1>literary agent about publishing myself, which I've never done before,

1:05:13.640 --> 1:05:15.920
<v Speaker 1>because I enjoyed it so much. And then at the

1:05:16.160 --> 1:05:20.400
<v Speaker 1>last minute, a prominent publisher thought, we'll give this one

1:05:20.440 --> 1:05:20.840
<v Speaker 1>a try.

1:05:21.760 --> 1:05:26.280
<v Speaker 2>We'll circle back to that concept of people in industries

1:05:26.320 --> 1:05:29.360
<v Speaker 2>not knowing what works. But right in the beginning of

1:05:29.400 --> 1:05:32.200
<v Speaker 2>the book you drop a number that is mind blowing.

1:05:32.760 --> 1:05:37.720
<v Speaker 2>The Star Wars franchise has earned forty two billion dollars worldwide.

1:05:38.160 --> 1:05:41.600
<v Speaker 2>That's an insane number. How has a movie earned that

1:05:41.760 --> 1:05:42.400
<v Speaker 2>much money?

1:05:43.160 --> 1:05:44.760
<v Speaker 1>It's probably a lot higher now.

1:05:45.120 --> 1:05:47.840
<v Speaker 2>And the well you have the Mandalorian and Boba Fett

1:05:47.880 --> 1:05:52.960
<v Speaker 2>and all of the streaming versions and countless countless animated things,

1:05:53.960 --> 1:06:00.640
<v Speaker 2>plus the Disney rides. It really is its own industry completely.

1:06:00.880 --> 1:06:05.400
<v Speaker 1>And one thing is that success breeds success. The other

1:06:05.480 --> 1:06:10.560
<v Speaker 1>thing is that it's amazing. So the George Lucaswans especially,

1:06:10.800 --> 1:06:13.440
<v Speaker 1>I say, apologies, Disney.

1:06:13.040 --> 1:06:15.680
<v Speaker 2>People, You're okay, You're right with that, You're okay with that,

1:06:16.320 --> 1:06:17.320
<v Speaker 2>and thank you for that.

1:06:17.520 --> 1:06:21.560
<v Speaker 1>And you know, he did something incredible, so it had

1:06:21.600 --> 1:06:26.360
<v Speaker 1>a foundation, but he also benefited from a lot of

1:06:27.520 --> 1:06:29.840
<v Speaker 1>serendipity that helped.

1:06:30.040 --> 1:06:33.080
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk a little bit about a concept I

1:06:33.120 --> 1:06:37.120
<v Speaker 2>love from William Goldman, who wrote Princess Bride and he

1:06:37.240 --> 1:06:40.160
<v Speaker 2>was the script doctor on All the President's Men and

1:06:40.200 --> 1:06:43.240
<v Speaker 2>Butch casting a Sundance Kid. He just a legend in

1:06:43.280 --> 1:06:47.960
<v Speaker 2>Star Wars and his concept is nobody knows anything, certainly

1:06:48.000 --> 1:06:51.840
<v Speaker 2>not about the future, about what might resonate with the public.

1:06:52.120 --> 1:06:55.200
<v Speaker 2>All the studios originally passed on Star Wars, they passed

1:06:55.240 --> 1:06:59.040
<v Speaker 2>on Raiders of the Lost Arc, almost all the publishers

1:06:59.080 --> 1:07:04.000
<v Speaker 2>rejected Rowling. You referenced the Sugarman documentary, which was really

1:07:04.080 --> 1:07:08.120
<v Speaker 2>quite fascinating. So it really leads the question what makes

1:07:08.720 --> 1:07:12.640
<v Speaker 2>a form of entertainment have this sort of cultural resonance.

1:07:12.680 --> 1:07:17.800
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned Lucas got lucky. Still, it's more than just

1:07:17.920 --> 1:07:20.320
<v Speaker 2>dumb luck. There's got to be some level of quality.

1:07:20.320 --> 1:07:21.320
<v Speaker 2>There has to be great.

1:07:21.520 --> 1:07:24.439
<v Speaker 1>So another example, I'm writing a book right now called

1:07:24.520 --> 1:07:28.040
<v Speaker 1>How to Become Famous, and it's about exactly this, and

1:07:28.400 --> 1:07:31.560
<v Speaker 1>it was inspired by The Beatles, where the Beatles. Everybody

1:07:31.600 --> 1:07:35.440
<v Speaker 1>turned down to the Beatles. They wrote letters to Brian Epstein,

1:07:35.520 --> 1:07:38.480
<v Speaker 1>the Beatles guy agents, saying the boys.

1:07:38.240 --> 1:07:40.080
<v Speaker 2>Won't go Guitar music is over.

1:07:40.400 --> 1:07:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and the Beatles themselves said, you know, we're in

1:07:45.440 --> 1:07:48.800
<v Speaker 1>big trouble. We can't get a record deal. They became

1:07:48.800 --> 1:07:53.720
<v Speaker 1>the Beatles. Did they come close to failing? Maybe? Okay,

1:07:53.800 --> 1:07:57.800
<v Speaker 1>So clearly you're right you need quality. But consider the

1:07:57.880 --> 1:08:01.960
<v Speaker 1>following fact that John Keats often thought to be the

1:08:01.960 --> 1:08:05.240
<v Speaker 1>most beautiful poet when the English language died at the

1:08:05.280 --> 1:08:07.479
<v Speaker 1>age of twenty five. He was very ambitious. He thought

1:08:07.480 --> 1:08:11.000
<v Speaker 1>he failed, and he put on his grave something like

1:08:11.120 --> 1:08:14.840
<v Speaker 1>he whose life was written in water. And Jane Austen,

1:08:15.000 --> 1:08:18.400
<v Speaker 1>maybe the most beloved novelist, was not thought to be

1:08:18.479 --> 1:08:20.720
<v Speaker 1>the greatest novelist of her time. She wasn't thought to

1:08:20.720 --> 1:08:24.080
<v Speaker 1>be the greatest female novelist of her time. How she

1:08:24.240 --> 1:08:29.599
<v Speaker 1>became Jane Austen is very complicated. The story, the story

1:08:29.640 --> 1:08:34.559
<v Speaker 1>of John Keats and Jane Austen is across generations. I

1:08:34.600 --> 1:08:39.680
<v Speaker 1>think the story of the Beatles and Star Wars within

1:08:39.800 --> 1:08:44.720
<v Speaker 1>a compressed period where something catches a wave. Now it

1:08:44.720 --> 1:08:47.120
<v Speaker 1>has to be great to catch a wave. If it's

1:08:47.479 --> 1:08:49.880
<v Speaker 1>just someone who doesn't know how to serve, they're going

1:08:49.960 --> 1:08:53.000
<v Speaker 1>to fall, so it has to be great. But what

1:08:53.120 --> 1:08:56.080
<v Speaker 1>happened with Star Wars. We can talk a bit about

1:08:56.120 --> 1:08:59.639
<v Speaker 1>the merits, but I think what really happened was social

1:08:59.720 --> 1:09:03.519
<v Speaker 1>infa luences, which is not to diminish the amazingness of

1:09:03.760 --> 1:09:07.639
<v Speaker 1>the Star Wars movies. But people wanted to go see

1:09:07.680 --> 1:09:10.479
<v Speaker 1>Star Wars because everyone was going to see Star Wars,

1:09:10.840 --> 1:09:14.800
<v Speaker 1>and that happened early on so that people thought not

1:09:14.960 --> 1:09:18.120
<v Speaker 1>to see Star Wars is to miss out. It's like,

1:09:18.160 --> 1:09:20.680
<v Speaker 1>who do I think I am on this earth not

1:09:20.760 --> 1:09:23.439
<v Speaker 1>to go see Star Wars. I remember that, by the way,

1:09:24.240 --> 1:09:29.200
<v Speaker 1>And that wasn't because it was fantastic, though it was fantastic.

1:09:29.240 --> 1:09:32.360
<v Speaker 1>It was because other people thought it was fantastic. Taylor

1:09:32.400 --> 1:09:35.560
<v Speaker 1>Swift is a correct example. I think Taylor Swift is

1:09:35.600 --> 1:09:40.320
<v Speaker 1>completely amazing, but her amazingness does not account for the

1:09:40.360 --> 1:09:44.160
<v Speaker 1>fact that she's so famous. It's that people love her,

1:09:44.680 --> 1:09:47.840
<v Speaker 1>and even people who don't love her are interested in

1:09:47.880 --> 1:09:50.880
<v Speaker 1>her or pretend to love her. I'm here to say

1:09:50.920 --> 1:09:53.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm not pretending to love her. I really loved her.

1:09:53.320 --> 1:09:56.080
<v Speaker 1>I thought her music was great even before she was

1:09:56.400 --> 1:09:59.519
<v Speaker 1>quite what she is now, because Neil Young, who's one

1:09:59.560 --> 1:10:02.040
<v Speaker 1>of my hero said, Taylor Swift is the real deal,

1:10:02.360 --> 1:10:04.160
<v Speaker 1>and I thought, I have to listen to Taylor Swift.

1:10:05.320 --> 1:10:09.120
<v Speaker 1>So this is all around us, and there are people

1:10:09.200 --> 1:10:14.160
<v Speaker 1>who are not like George Lucas, or not like Taylor Swift,

1:10:14.240 --> 1:10:18.240
<v Speaker 1>or not like the Beatles, who maybe were about as amazing,

1:10:18.880 --> 1:10:22.599
<v Speaker 1>but something didn't happen for them, and we've never heard

1:10:22.640 --> 1:10:26.879
<v Speaker 1>of them, or we will hear of them after Tomorrow.

1:10:27.720 --> 1:10:31.559
<v Speaker 2>There's a fascinating section in Derek Thompson's book How It's

1:10:31.600 --> 1:10:37.040
<v Speaker 2>Happened about how the Impressionists were essentially more or less ignored.

1:10:37.280 --> 1:10:39.559
<v Speaker 2>I think vango and never sold a painting in his lifetime,

1:10:39.960 --> 1:10:44.320
<v Speaker 2>but one of their members, who came from wealthy family,

1:10:45.040 --> 1:10:48.160
<v Speaker 2>left a whole run of these Impressionist paintings with the

1:10:48.479 --> 1:10:52.000
<v Speaker 2>edict that left it to the French government and this

1:10:52.120 --> 1:10:54.160
<v Speaker 2>has to be displayed on the museum and if not,

1:10:54.560 --> 1:10:58.800
<v Speaker 2>you can't have them, And very unhappily the French government did,

1:10:58.920 --> 1:11:03.120
<v Speaker 2>and suddenly it became a sensation. But for that who

1:11:03.160 --> 1:11:06.160
<v Speaker 2>knows money man a Picero go down. The whole list

1:11:06.920 --> 1:11:09.280
<v Speaker 2>may not be part of the pantheon that we look

1:11:09.280 --> 1:11:10.640
<v Speaker 2>at today completely.

1:11:10.960 --> 1:11:13.800
<v Speaker 1>I love Derek Thompson's book and I think that's a

1:11:13.840 --> 1:11:17.880
<v Speaker 1>fantastic example. So one way to think about it is

1:11:17.960 --> 1:11:23.160
<v Speaker 1>that the phenomenon of power laws is highly relevant to

1:11:23.240 --> 1:11:28.080
<v Speaker 1>success and failure, where we tend to think of things

1:11:28.120 --> 1:11:31.160
<v Speaker 1>as linear with respect to growth. But that's not true

1:11:31.200 --> 1:11:33.479
<v Speaker 1>for video games, it's not true for films, it's not

1:11:33.520 --> 1:11:36.280
<v Speaker 1>true for novels, it's not true for art. It's a

1:11:36.320 --> 1:11:39.719
<v Speaker 1>power law. This is very slightly technical for yours truly

1:11:39.760 --> 1:11:42.840
<v Speaker 1>the English major, not technical for you, the Bath guy.

1:11:43.320 --> 1:11:46.160
<v Speaker 1>But if we understand the phenomenon of power laws on

1:11:46.200 --> 1:11:51.799
<v Speaker 1>how they work, then we'll get real clarity on spectacular success,

1:11:51.960 --> 1:11:53.200
<v Speaker 1>including that of Star Wars.

1:11:53.520 --> 1:11:56.040
<v Speaker 2>Very much. I want to take all sort of phenomena,

1:11:56.360 --> 1:12:02.200
<v Speaker 2>So let's talk bring Star Wars back to behavioral economics.

1:12:03.000 --> 1:12:05.840
<v Speaker 2>You note in the book whenever people find themselves at

1:12:05.920 --> 1:12:10.080
<v Speaker 2>some sort of a crossroad within Star Wars, the series

1:12:10.320 --> 1:12:14.040
<v Speaker 2>proclaims you are free to choose. This is the deepest

1:12:14.120 --> 1:12:17.559
<v Speaker 2>lesson of Star Wars, which kind of reminds me of

1:12:18.080 --> 1:12:21.439
<v Speaker 2>you and Thaylor's work in Nudge in terms of setting

1:12:21.560 --> 1:12:25.720
<v Speaker 2>up choice architecture. Was that a conscious explanation?

1:12:26.520 --> 1:12:30.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, Taylor and I were very focused on preservation of

1:12:31.000 --> 1:12:34.879
<v Speaker 1>freedom and continue to be, And some of our friends

1:12:34.960 --> 1:12:39.080
<v Speaker 1>on the left are mad at us because we're pro freedom.

1:12:39.680 --> 1:12:42.280
<v Speaker 1>That's probably a self serving way to describe it, but

1:12:44.040 --> 1:12:47.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm sticking with it. The thought of some of our

1:12:47.280 --> 1:12:49.720
<v Speaker 1>friends on the left is that we need much more

1:12:49.720 --> 1:12:52.400
<v Speaker 1>in the way of corrosion and mandates, and of course

1:12:52.800 --> 1:12:55.639
<v Speaker 1>they have a role, But Taylor and I are very

1:12:55.640 --> 1:13:04.240
<v Speaker 1>big on investor freedom, consumer freedom, America, exclamation Point, Star

1:13:04.320 --> 1:13:09.879
<v Speaker 1>Wars is similar. It's art, it's not, you know, social science.

1:13:10.439 --> 1:13:14.519
<v Speaker 1>And as between art and social science, at least my

1:13:14.600 --> 1:13:18.200
<v Speaker 1>current mood, I go for art and I love them both.

1:13:18.280 --> 1:13:22.519
<v Speaker 1>But Lucas is an artist and it's his soul that's speaking.

1:13:22.920 --> 1:13:25.519
<v Speaker 1>And I don't know how conscious he was about this, though.

1:13:25.520 --> 1:13:29.000
<v Speaker 1>I can tell you a little story if you want, okay.

1:13:29.040 --> 1:13:34.360
<v Speaker 1>So freedom is the theme. Darth Vader, who's the worst

1:13:34.360 --> 1:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>person in the universe, maybe the second worst at the

1:13:38.640 --> 1:13:44.240
<v Speaker 1>crucial moment, exercises his freedom because he believes that saving

1:13:44.320 --> 1:13:48.240
<v Speaker 1>his son is more important than fidelity to the Emperor,

1:13:48.320 --> 1:13:52.120
<v Speaker 1>and he sacrifices everything that's his choice, and that saves him.

1:13:52.360 --> 1:13:55.160
<v Speaker 1>So it's in some ways a spiritual, even a Christian

1:13:55.160 --> 1:13:59.440
<v Speaker 1>book about freedom, and this is what makes it, I think, transcendent.

1:14:00.000 --> 1:14:02.240
<v Speaker 1>The story is that after I did the book, the

1:14:02.280 --> 1:14:04.559
<v Speaker 1>one person who I was most terrified to see was

1:14:04.560 --> 1:14:07.760
<v Speaker 1>George Lucas, whom I knew a tiny, tiny, tiny bit.

1:14:08.360 --> 1:14:10.519
<v Speaker 1>And I was at a big event with maybe three

1:14:10.600 --> 1:14:13.240
<v Speaker 1>hundred people, and there in the distance was George Lucas,

1:14:13.600 --> 1:14:15.120
<v Speaker 1>and he started walking toward me.

1:14:15.640 --> 1:14:17.519
<v Speaker 2>Line you see him coming towards you.

1:14:17.760 --> 1:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and I thought he was walking fast but suadenly,

1:14:21.000 --> 1:14:24.000
<v Speaker 1>and I thought, please God, let Harrison Ford be right

1:14:24.040 --> 1:14:27.400
<v Speaker 1>in back of me. Please God, let someone whom he

1:14:27.479 --> 1:14:29.559
<v Speaker 1>knows me in back of me. Please God, let him

1:14:29.600 --> 1:14:31.960
<v Speaker 1>not will be walking toward me. But he's continuing to

1:14:32.000 --> 1:14:34.559
<v Speaker 1>walk toward me. And it's about two hundred yards and

1:14:34.680 --> 1:14:36.479
<v Speaker 1>now he's one hundred and fifty yards away. Now he's

1:14:36.479 --> 1:14:38.800
<v Speaker 1>one hundred yards away. And I thought, maybe I can

1:14:38.880 --> 1:14:41.479
<v Speaker 1>be like some character in Star Wars where I can

1:14:41.520 --> 1:14:45.200
<v Speaker 1>make myself meld into the floor.

1:14:45.240 --> 1:14:47.240
<v Speaker 2>This is not the law professor you're looking at.

1:14:48.800 --> 1:14:50.680
<v Speaker 1>I thought, can I do a mind trick so he

1:14:50.720 --> 1:14:53.799
<v Speaker 1>doesn't know it's me? Or can I make myself really tiny?

1:14:54.080 --> 1:14:56.759
<v Speaker 1>Or can I make myself pure liquid? But he's walking

1:14:56.800 --> 1:14:59.800
<v Speaker 1>toward me. And then he said the most terrifying words

1:14:59.800 --> 1:15:04.200
<v Speaker 1>I've ever heard from a human being, which is he said,

1:15:04.200 --> 1:15:07.360
<v Speaker 1>I read your book. And I thought, oh my gosh,

1:15:07.360 --> 1:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>that's going to happen. And then he paused, and he said,

1:15:10.439 --> 1:15:14.200
<v Speaker 1>without any sense of pleasure, he said I liked it.

1:15:15.120 --> 1:15:18.160
<v Speaker 1>And then he said, without any sense of pleasure, no smile,

1:15:18.360 --> 1:15:22.120
<v Speaker 1>he said it's good. Then he paused and said, with

1:15:22.200 --> 1:15:25.840
<v Speaker 1>no smile at all, he said, you got what I

1:15:25.880 --> 1:15:28.880
<v Speaker 1>was trying to do. And then he paused, and he said,

1:15:28.920 --> 1:15:31.160
<v Speaker 1>start a smile, and he said, but the other books

1:15:31.200 --> 1:15:34.200
<v Speaker 1>on Star Wars, they're terrible. And then he got a

1:15:34.240 --> 1:15:36.360
<v Speaker 1>big smile and got really happy, and he said, and

1:15:36.400 --> 1:15:39.880
<v Speaker 1>you made mistakes. I loved him so much that he

1:15:40.000 --> 1:15:42.599
<v Speaker 1>wasn't going to flatter me. I wasn't going to say anything.

1:15:42.640 --> 1:15:44.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, you read a good book. But he was

1:15:45.600 --> 1:15:48.320
<v Speaker 1>as nice as he could be, and he has become

1:15:48.360 --> 1:15:51.160
<v Speaker 1>a friend. And we talked a bit about the book,

1:15:51.240 --> 1:15:54.360
<v Speaker 1>and he said, at one point, you have no idea

1:15:54.439 --> 1:15:57.840
<v Speaker 1>how much work I put into the prequels. And I said,

1:15:58.160 --> 1:16:01.240
<v Speaker 1>do you know you're talking to I wrote a book

1:16:01.280 --> 1:16:03.080
<v Speaker 1>on this. I know how much work you put on

1:16:03.160 --> 1:16:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the prequels. In the prequels, and he smiled. And then

1:16:06.560 --> 1:16:10.080
<v Speaker 1>he described one of my alleged mistakes. And I'm not

1:16:10.120 --> 1:16:12.120
<v Speaker 1>going to disclose what it was because that would be

1:16:12.200 --> 1:16:15.280
<v Speaker 1>violating a confidence. But I don't believe it was a

1:16:15.320 --> 1:16:19.120
<v Speaker 1>mistake at all. I think he was retrofitting something in

1:16:19.160 --> 1:16:21.360
<v Speaker 1>the genesis of the Star Wars, which.

1:16:21.000 --> 1:16:22.760
<v Speaker 2>He has been known to do, which a lot of

1:16:23.000 --> 1:16:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Very often he engages a little revisionist literary history.

1:16:27.800 --> 1:16:31.360
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's great for a great artist writer.

1:16:32.080 --> 1:16:34.599
<v Speaker 1>This was a private conversation where he had no stake

1:16:34.680 --> 1:16:39.040
<v Speaker 1>in anything, but we argued a little bit. I thought,

1:16:39.120 --> 1:16:43.880
<v Speaker 1>this is pretty surreal that I'm telling George Lucas about

1:16:43.880 --> 1:16:46.960
<v Speaker 1>the genesis of the Star Wars movies. That I'm believing

1:16:47.000 --> 1:16:50.439
<v Speaker 1>myself rather than George Lucas, and that might have been

1:16:50.479 --> 1:16:51.479
<v Speaker 1>motivated recently.

1:16:51.720 --> 1:16:54.679
<v Speaker 2>Hey, if George Lucas said your book on Star Wars

1:16:54.840 --> 1:16:57.040
<v Speaker 2>was good and the rest of him or not, that's

1:16:57.120 --> 1:16:59.800
<v Speaker 2>a giant win. Can't do much better than that.

1:17:00.040 --> 1:17:03.479
<v Speaker 1>I think what he I like to think it's.

1:17:03.280 --> 1:17:06.720
<v Speaker 2>Pretty clear that the book, so this is a Your

1:17:07.280 --> 1:17:13.840
<v Speaker 2>regular books are academic and deeply researched, and they're not lightweight. This,

1:17:13.960 --> 1:17:16.280
<v Speaker 2>on the other hand, is a fun I don't want

1:17:16.280 --> 1:17:19.120
<v Speaker 2>to say it's a lightweight read, but it's an easy read,

1:17:19.800 --> 1:17:22.240
<v Speaker 2>and it's clear a lot of thought and depth went

1:17:22.280 --> 1:17:27.040
<v Speaker 2>into it to say, what is the genesis of Star Wars?

1:17:27.080 --> 1:17:29.639
<v Speaker 2>Not just the Joseph Campbell Man of a Thousand Faces,

1:17:29.720 --> 1:17:33.479
<v Speaker 2>but what are the philosophical motivations of Lucas? What is

1:17:33.479 --> 1:17:37.040
<v Speaker 2>he trying? You know, the relevance about Nixon moving to

1:17:37.120 --> 1:17:41.400
<v Speaker 2>authoritarian and the freedom like it's clear thought went into

1:17:41.439 --> 1:17:43.000
<v Speaker 2>this and he picked that up.

1:17:43.120 --> 1:17:44.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, thank you for that. Thank you.

1:17:44.960 --> 1:17:47.000
<v Speaker 2>So I only have you for a few minutes. Let

1:17:47.000 --> 1:17:50.160
<v Speaker 2>me ask throw you a couple of curveball questions and

1:17:50.160 --> 1:17:53.160
<v Speaker 2>then we'll quickly do our speed round our favorite questions.

1:17:53.720 --> 1:17:58.679
<v Speaker 2>So you were a professor at University of Chicago, where

1:17:58.920 --> 1:18:03.840
<v Speaker 2>Richard Posner was also a professor. He once was the

1:18:03.880 --> 1:18:08.519
<v Speaker 2>most cited law professor in the US until you came along.

1:18:08.640 --> 1:18:11.200
<v Speaker 2>Tell us a little bit about your relationship with Bosner.

1:18:11.360 --> 1:18:16.439
<v Speaker 1>It was very good so early on. He was a giant,

1:18:16.880 --> 1:18:21.320
<v Speaker 1>and he was very skeptical of some of the things

1:18:21.360 --> 1:18:27.080
<v Speaker 1>I thought, but he was very engaged and very collegial,

1:18:27.280 --> 1:18:31.320
<v Speaker 1>so it was all substance, not personal, and I just

1:18:31.439 --> 1:18:35.160
<v Speaker 1>learned so much from him. His comments on my papers,

1:18:35.200 --> 1:18:39.720
<v Speaker 1>which he thought were bad papers, were instructive comments, and

1:18:39.760 --> 1:18:44.000
<v Speaker 1>they made them less bad papers. Engaging with his thinking

1:18:44.320 --> 1:18:50.720
<v Speaker 1>was a gift to me. And I think as skeptical

1:18:51.000 --> 1:18:55.160
<v Speaker 1>as I was of maybe ninety percent of what he thought,

1:18:55.240 --> 1:18:58.160
<v Speaker 1>I ended up agreeing with maybe forty percent of what

1:18:58.240 --> 1:19:03.160
<v Speaker 1>he thought. It was he was I think he wouldn't

1:19:03.400 --> 1:19:05.920
<v Speaker 1>want to think of himself as a mentor of mine.

1:19:06.040 --> 1:19:10.280
<v Speaker 2>But he was, So let's address some of the things

1:19:10.280 --> 1:19:16.120
<v Speaker 2>he thought of law and economics. Initially was considered fairly

1:19:16.280 --> 1:19:21.519
<v Speaker 2>radical and an extra legislative back door to affect the

1:19:21.600 --> 1:19:25.440
<v Speaker 2>judicial process. Tell us a little bit about his philosophy,

1:19:25.479 --> 1:19:30.760
<v Speaker 2>which in small measure he recanted after the financial crisis.

1:19:31.120 --> 1:19:37.639
<v Speaker 2>He said, my core belief is the company's own desire

1:19:37.640 --> 1:19:41.000
<v Speaker 2>to preserve their reputations should have prevented them from doing

1:19:41.080 --> 1:19:43.640
<v Speaker 2>what took place during the financial crisis. I don't know

1:19:43.680 --> 1:19:46.320
<v Speaker 2>how much of a if that's a full recant or

1:19:46.960 --> 1:19:51.240
<v Speaker 2>just a post financial crisis without happened. But tell us

1:19:51.280 --> 1:19:52.200
<v Speaker 2>about his theories.

1:19:52.720 --> 1:19:58.160
<v Speaker 1>So, I think the largest contribution Posner made was to think,

1:19:58.439 --> 1:20:02.679
<v Speaker 1>what are the consequences of law for people? And how

1:20:02.680 --> 1:20:05.800
<v Speaker 1>can we be empirical about that? So is the law

1:20:05.840 --> 1:20:09.320
<v Speaker 1>contributing to well being? Is it leading to economic growth?

1:20:09.880 --> 1:20:14.000
<v Speaker 1>Is it destroying wealth? Is it helping consumers and investors?

1:20:14.080 --> 1:20:17.800
<v Speaker 1>Or is it hurting them? And that insistent focus on

1:20:17.800 --> 1:20:20.880
<v Speaker 1>one of the consequences of law that was for me

1:20:21.040 --> 1:20:24.360
<v Speaker 1>then and I'm smiling now, it was like a breath

1:20:24.360 --> 1:20:26.000
<v Speaker 1>of fresh air. When I was in law school. We

1:20:26.000 --> 1:20:28.800
<v Speaker 1>never asked about that as what was analogous to what?

1:20:29.479 --> 1:20:32.960
<v Speaker 1>And Poser just said, what does this mean for people?

1:20:33.280 --> 1:20:35.840
<v Speaker 1>In a way that had no sentimentality to it. It

1:20:35.920 --> 1:20:41.000
<v Speaker 1>had numbers, and that's amazing. Then there was the idea

1:20:41.080 --> 1:20:44.360
<v Speaker 1>that the common law is efficient. So we thought the

1:20:44.439 --> 1:20:46.920
<v Speaker 1>law of private property, contract and tour it in England

1:20:46.960 --> 1:20:49.880
<v Speaker 1>and America just is efficient. That's how he made his reputation.

1:20:50.680 --> 1:20:54.559
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that survived, but it's not crazy false,

1:20:55.920 --> 1:21:01.640
<v Speaker 1>It's not wildly inefficient, and it's pretty efficient. So I

1:21:01.680 --> 1:21:06.040
<v Speaker 1>think that that was a fundamental contribution. His kind of

1:21:06.120 --> 1:21:12.200
<v Speaker 1>Chicago is skepticism about a role for government regulation and such.

1:21:12.280 --> 1:21:14.720
<v Speaker 1>I think that was really a third order idea. The

1:21:14.800 --> 1:21:20.519
<v Speaker 1>more fundamental is think about the consequences. I don't know

1:21:20.520 --> 1:21:24.400
<v Speaker 1>what to think about recantation by him. It may be

1:21:24.560 --> 1:21:28.680
<v Speaker 1>that just under the spell of a horrible economic downturn,

1:21:28.760 --> 1:21:31.040
<v Speaker 1>he thought there were some things I thought that weren't right.

1:21:31.680 --> 1:21:35.240
<v Speaker 1>But more fundamental was his focus on evidence and data

1:21:35.760 --> 1:21:38.920
<v Speaker 1>than is thinking that I am a Chicago school person

1:21:39.360 --> 1:21:43.799
<v Speaker 1>and on behavioral economics my own focus. He really did shift,

1:21:43.840 --> 1:21:45.760
<v Speaker 1>and he wrote me a note saying he shifted in

1:21:45.760 --> 1:21:48.040
<v Speaker 1>the early days Taylor and I gave a talk at

1:21:48.120 --> 1:21:52.479
<v Speaker 1>Chicago in which he was fiercely skeptical, and he wrote

1:21:52.479 --> 1:21:56.720
<v Speaker 1>about behavioral economics in a way that was full of dismissiveness,

1:21:56.720 --> 1:21:59.360
<v Speaker 1>and he ended up being I think the word a

1:21:59.439 --> 1:22:03.120
<v Speaker 1>convert is is accurate, and that's because he thought the

1:22:03.120 --> 1:22:04.639
<v Speaker 1>evidence supported it. Well.

1:22:04.640 --> 1:22:09.600
<v Speaker 2>When you look at the original pre behavioral model of economics,

1:22:10.200 --> 1:22:15.000
<v Speaker 2>the fundamental premise is false. Humans are rational profit mocktimizers.

1:22:15.280 --> 1:22:19.000
<v Speaker 2>We're not. And if your foundation is false, well how

1:22:19.040 --> 1:22:21.519
<v Speaker 2>I can that building on top of it go? All right,

1:22:21.520 --> 1:22:23.080
<v Speaker 2>so I only have you for a few minutes, Let's

1:22:23.120 --> 1:22:26.320
<v Speaker 2>jump to our favorite questions, our speed round that we

1:22:26.520 --> 1:22:29.759
<v Speaker 2>ask all of our guests, And let's start with what's

1:22:29.800 --> 1:22:32.160
<v Speaker 2>been keeping you entertained? What are you either listening to

1:22:32.320 --> 1:22:33.760
<v Speaker 2>or watching these days?

1:22:33.760 --> 1:22:37.479
<v Speaker 1>The show on Netflix called Vortex, which I love, love,

1:22:37.560 --> 1:22:41.080
<v Speaker 1>love love. It's French. It's about time travel and it's

1:22:41.120 --> 1:22:45.040
<v Speaker 1>about romance, and it's about the economy, and it's about heroism,

1:22:45.280 --> 1:22:48.360
<v Speaker 1>and it's about the future in the past, and it's

1:22:48.479 --> 1:22:50.160
<v Speaker 1>not to be missed. Vortex.

1:22:50.600 --> 1:22:53.120
<v Speaker 2>We'll definitely check it out. Do you speak French or

1:22:53.720 --> 1:22:57.560
<v Speaker 2>are you just a Francophile or is your pro Trepity Pompo.

1:22:58.720 --> 1:23:02.559
<v Speaker 2>If you haven't seen cole my agent strong recommend it's

1:23:02.600 --> 1:23:08.320
<v Speaker 2>absolutely delightful. So you've mentioned several mentors who helped guide

1:23:08.360 --> 1:23:09.000
<v Speaker 2>your career.

1:23:10.479 --> 1:23:15.200
<v Speaker 1>I would single out a recently deceased law professor named

1:23:15.280 --> 1:23:20.800
<v Speaker 1>Lloyd wine Reb, who taught a course at Harvard on

1:23:21.040 --> 1:23:24.360
<v Speaker 1>law and philosophy, and undergraduate course which I took on

1:23:24.400 --> 1:23:28.360
<v Speaker 1>a kind of flyer, and it alerted me to a

1:23:28.439 --> 1:23:31.880
<v Speaker 1>world I had no idea it existed. So I would

1:23:31.880 --> 1:23:34.000
<v Speaker 1>single out Lloyd Winereb.

1:23:35.000 --> 1:23:36.720
<v Speaker 2>What are some of your favorite books? What are you

1:23:36.720 --> 1:23:37.559
<v Speaker 2>reading right now?

1:23:38.320 --> 1:23:42.919
<v Speaker 1>My favorite book of all time is Possession by as

1:23:42.960 --> 1:23:46.760
<v Speaker 1>By It it's the greatest work of fiction in the

1:23:47.240 --> 1:23:51.880
<v Speaker 1>English language. Wow, And I reread it every few years

1:23:51.960 --> 1:24:00.360
<v Speaker 1>and it's completely great. I'm reading right now John's Stuart

1:24:00.360 --> 1:24:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Mills The Subjection of Women, which because I'm writing about

1:24:04.880 --> 1:24:08.400
<v Speaker 1>liberalism as a political theory and where it came from,

1:24:08.600 --> 1:24:13.800
<v Speaker 1>and Mill on equality and liberty is relevant.

1:24:13.960 --> 1:24:17.840
<v Speaker 2>Let's say, to say the very least, what sort of

1:24:17.840 --> 1:24:21.040
<v Speaker 2>advice would you give to a recent college grad interest

1:24:21.120 --> 1:24:25.000
<v Speaker 2>in a career in either law or behavioral finance.

1:24:26.680 --> 1:24:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Find things you love and focus on them, because even

1:24:32.080 --> 1:24:35.400
<v Speaker 1>if you don't succeed spectacularly, at least you will have

1:24:35.560 --> 1:24:40.320
<v Speaker 1>loved not succeeding spectacularly. And if you focus on the

1:24:40.360 --> 1:24:43.080
<v Speaker 1>things you really enjoy and love, the chance that you'll

1:24:43.120 --> 1:24:44.960
<v Speaker 1>succeed skyrockets.

1:24:46.040 --> 1:24:48.360
<v Speaker 2>And our final question, what do you know about the

1:24:48.400 --> 1:24:57.799
<v Speaker 2>world of law, constitution, nudges, sludges, noise, behavioral finance today

1:24:58.200 --> 1:25:00.880
<v Speaker 2>that you wish you knew forty or so years ago

1:25:00.920 --> 1:25:02.840
<v Speaker 2>when you were first getting started.

1:25:02.840 --> 1:25:08.040
<v Speaker 1>Well, I wish I'd known about the horror of sludge

1:25:08.479 --> 1:25:16.439
<v Speaker 1>understood as administrative burdens, waiting time, long forms, in person

1:25:16.520 --> 1:25:21.000
<v Speaker 1>interview requirements, things that make it so that if you're

1:25:21.160 --> 1:25:23.439
<v Speaker 1>kind of doing well in life, but you need help

1:25:23.479 --> 1:25:25.880
<v Speaker 1>in one kind of one kind or another, it's really

1:25:25.920 --> 1:25:28.799
<v Speaker 1>hard to get it. Or if you're struggling in life,

1:25:28.920 --> 1:25:32.320
<v Speaker 1>let's say you're old, or you're sick, or you're poor,

1:25:32.800 --> 1:25:39.080
<v Speaker 1>or you're struggling, you're lonely. The various administrative burdens we

1:25:39.120 --> 1:25:43.479
<v Speaker 1>impose on people, they are like a wall that's our

1:25:43.520 --> 1:25:49.320
<v Speaker 1>society erects often inadvertently take down that wall.

1:25:49.680 --> 1:25:53.760
<v Speaker 2>Mister whomever, quite fascinating cask, thank you for being so

1:25:53.920 --> 1:25:58.680
<v Speaker 2>generous with your time. We have been speaking with Cass Sunstein,

1:26:00.040 --> 1:26:03.920
<v Speaker 2>whose career is just legendary in the fields of law

1:26:04.560 --> 1:26:09.439
<v Speaker 2>and publishing and behavioral finance and public service. I don't

1:26:09.439 --> 1:26:12.320
<v Speaker 2>know what else to say other than thank you. If

1:26:12.360 --> 1:26:15.200
<v Speaker 2>you enjoyed this conversation, be sure and check out any

1:26:15.280 --> 1:26:19.000
<v Speaker 2>of the five hundred previous discussions we've had over the

1:26:19.040 --> 1:26:24.240
<v Speaker 2>past eight years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube,

1:26:24.320 --> 1:26:27.880
<v Speaker 2>wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Sign up from my

1:26:28.000 --> 1:26:31.600
<v Speaker 2>daily reading list at rid Halts dot com. Follow me

1:26:31.880 --> 1:26:35.080
<v Speaker 2>on Twitter at rid Halts, although that account was hacked

1:26:35.120 --> 1:26:38.680
<v Speaker 2>and in the meantime I'm using at Barry Underscore rit

1:26:38.720 --> 1:26:41.760
<v Speaker 2>Halts until I get it back. Follow all of the

1:26:41.760 --> 1:26:46.519
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg family of podcasts on Twitter at podcasts. I would

1:26:46.520 --> 1:26:48.679
<v Speaker 2>be remiss if I did not thank the crack team

1:26:48.680 --> 1:26:52.360
<v Speaker 2>that helps with these conversations together. My audio engineer is

1:26:52.560 --> 1:26:56.479
<v Speaker 2>Justin Milner, My producer is Paris Walld, My project manager

1:26:56.520 --> 1:27:00.719
<v Speaker 2>is Atika val Bron. My researcher is Sean Russo. I'm

1:27:00.840 --> 1:27:04.800
<v Speaker 2>Barry Retoltz. You've been listening to Masters in Business on

1:27:04.920 --> 1:27:06.880
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio