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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Shad Molman

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Speaker 1: of the Action Network. We are part of the Volume

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Speaker 1: podcast Network today. I am joined as always buy my cost,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre, my bff Professional Better, Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Ed O, Simon Schad. How are we doing, brother dude?

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Speaker 1: We had a little date night last week. You and

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Speaker 1: I we shared a cheese steak and Philly we ate

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Speaker 1: it on the back of your trunk, just sitting on

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Speaker 1: the bumper. Cars trying to go down one way streets,

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Speaker 1: horns blaring, bicycle cops coming around, not even taking notice

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Speaker 1: of the way you're illegally parked. We went to the

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Speaker 1: Phillies game. It was a perfect night in Philly, and

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Speaker 1: I will contend that one of the best sort of

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Speaker 1: leisurely sports experiences is going to Citizens Bank Ballpark to

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Speaker 1: watch the Phillies on a beautiful night with my bff Sigmon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a good night. Picked you up in

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Speaker 2: the M eight love showing off the car and BMW.

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Speaker 2: I know that you guys just sponsored JJ Reddick's podcast.

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Speaker 2: He's gone never coming back. If you want to come

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Speaker 2: sponsor me and chat, I literally drive an m E

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Speaker 2: come sponsor our show BMW. Please. Yeah, I picked up

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Speaker 2: Chat and I thought to myself, can Chat eat a

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Speaker 2: whole cheese steak? And I thought himself, I eat a

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Speaker 2: whole cheese steak before this baseball game. That's risky move

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Speaker 2: because we're all to be sitting in a ballpark for

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Speaker 2: four hours. So I took the I took the Dela Rossie,

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Speaker 2: which is you know, if you're a local, you know

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Speaker 2: the spot. It's known for its pizza and there's cheese steaks.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, I gave you the authentic experience eating on

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Speaker 2: the back of the car. I feel like is a

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Speaker 2: very city thing to do. And like Chad said, not

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Speaker 2: a single person paid us any type of mind. That's how,

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Speaker 2: you know, just normal it is in Philadelphia. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: the baseball game wise, you know, great seats. Chad and

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Speaker 2: I have done enough gambling and been in enough baseball games.

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Speaker 2: We knew that game was over within I think it

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Speaker 2: was a four to nothing at one point in the

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Speaker 2: land and we both threw knew each other just basically

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Speaker 2: said this game is over and our under bet is dead.

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Speaker 2: Of course it.

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Speaker 1: Was no, no, no, no, no, no, that's not how it went.

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Speaker 1: Number one, I will tell you I had half a

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Speaker 1: cheese steak. I don't think I've had as many calories

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Speaker 1: combined since we saw each other as I had in

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Speaker 1: that one half of a cheese steak. Number two. It

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Speaker 1: was Zach Wheeler Chris Sale. The game was rolling, nothing, nothing,

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Speaker 1: Everything's going great. And you looked at me at one

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Speaker 1: point and you said, how about that under And I said, well,

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Speaker 1: I said, what the fuck is your problem? Have you

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Speaker 1: never gambled before? That's like the most mush thing you

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Speaker 1: could say. Literally, the top half of the next inning,

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Speaker 1: the Braves score two runs. They got men on first

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Speaker 1: and third, they hit a double. No, they've scored two runs.

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Speaker 1: I look at you, I don't even say anything, and

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Speaker 1: you go, we're fine. As long as we avoid the meltdown,

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Speaker 1: we're fine. Next batter double, two more runs scored. It's

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Speaker 1: four nothing. Then then the Phillies strand the bases loaded,

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Speaker 1: so then it's still for nothing. And then it's like

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Speaker 1: a pitching change. In the sixth we're like, let's get

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Speaker 1: out of here. We get to the car, and because

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Speaker 1: your ma drives at the speed of light, we were

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Speaker 1: at my hotel and by the time I passed the

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Speaker 1: bar which was fifteen minutes later, Phillies were down. Ain't

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Speaker 1: nothing and they.

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Speaker 2: Have We dig get a lovely sunset though chat, which

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Speaker 2: made it all worth it.

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Speaker 1: We got a lovely sunset. I texted it to my family.

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Speaker 1: Not a single person responded. Listen, we got a big,

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Speaker 1: big show today because the NBA Finals tip off. You

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Speaker 1: know how much I love the NBA. I know you

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Speaker 1: love the NBA. Uh. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been

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Speaker 1: amazing in these playoffs. Just defensive monsters, shake Gilgess, Alexander

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Speaker 1: has been obviously dominant offensively. Jalen Williams has been amazing

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Speaker 1: to me. The Pacers, sure, they're a surprise, but in

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Speaker 1: the second round. I remember sitting watching the games and

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Speaker 1: I said to my kid, I feel like the only

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Speaker 1: team in the Eastern Conference running any offensive plays right

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Speaker 1: now are the Innana Pacers. And if there is justice

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Speaker 1: in this world, we're going to get the two most sound, competent,

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Speaker 1: high IQ teams playing in the finals, the Pacers in

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Speaker 1: the Thunder. That's what we're getting. Thank god. NBA Analyst

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Speaker 1: Action Network OG one of the most respected media voices

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Speaker 1: in the NBA, one of the original original analytics gurus,

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Speaker 1: in the NBA covering everything NBA playoffs on buckets are Man,

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Speaker 1: Matt Moore, my brother, dude. I know, like the world

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Speaker 1: isn't thrilled. It's okay. See in Indie, I couldn't be happier.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the It's gonna be the best basketball

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Speaker 1: played that we could have possibly gotten.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna be like if if if two teams

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Speaker 3: got together and every hoop head loved it and nobody heard.

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Speaker 4: It, what does it make a sound? That's that's the

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Speaker 4: question here.

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Speaker 3: And you know what, Like I muted ratings on social

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Speaker 3: media because I'm just like, I don't care, man, this

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Speaker 3: is gonna be an awesome series.

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Speaker 4: You got Indiana Plan.

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Speaker 3: They play so up tempo, it's not even like it's

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Speaker 3: not just fast break stuff, but they play they are

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Speaker 3: in your face, at your throat every single possession. I've

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Speaker 3: likened them to a punk rock team where they're just

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Speaker 3: like every single song they are going right for the kill.

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Speaker 4: That's how they play.

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Speaker 3: And then you got Oklahoma City, who have seriously bent

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Speaker 3: my brain as far as usually with turnovers. I'm like, well,

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Speaker 3: you know you can always like play sound and avoid Nope,

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Speaker 3: not versus OKC, they're just taking the ball from you

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Speaker 3: go in the other direction. It's gonna be, I think,

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Speaker 3: a really fun series of games. It's gonna be a

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Speaker 3: lot of athleticism, a lot of young guys. This is

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Speaker 3: the thunder of the second youngest team to make the

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Speaker 3: finals since the seventy seven Blazers. They be the second

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Speaker 3: youngest team to win the title since the seventy seven Blazers.

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Speaker 3: Pacers are on the young side. It's a new era

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Speaker 3: in the NBA. Can't wait to watch the series.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting because they are both so good defensively,

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Speaker 1: also incredibly high teams. I keep I look at the

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Speaker 1: Pacers and I feel like their floor is so high.

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Speaker 1: I don't you know. Obviously they're stealing is higher than

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Speaker 1: anyone thought because they're they've made it to the finals,

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Speaker 1: but the floor of their baseline of competency is just

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Speaker 1: so high. And they're so complimentary Nemharv who got so

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Speaker 1: much credit in Game six guarding. Brunson has been like

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Speaker 1: that for two years as sort of a defensive stopper,

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Speaker 1: a guy who can dribble to the middle of the

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Speaker 1: lane to get his shot. Normally it's going in a

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Speaker 1: great mid range, Like, I love love this team, and

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Speaker 1: defensively the way they play, as you point out, it's

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Speaker 1: so different. The Pacers are so freaking physical. They might

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Speaker 1: not get as many turnovers, although the Knicks, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're incompetent. The thunder, it feels like sometimes you can't

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Speaker 1: get past center court because when they've got Caruso in

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Speaker 1: there and Williams in there, their arms are so long,

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Speaker 1: they're in every passing lane. They're brilliant defensively and so

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Speaker 1: different defensively.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, see, I haven't seen a defense like this

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Speaker 3: in a long time. Like you got to go back

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Speaker 3: to four pistons to get a team this good defensively.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen Warriors is up there, but I think this team's

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Speaker 3: is legitimately better defensively. Their ability, it's not just that

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Speaker 3: they steal passes, they're not gambling. It's that they're able

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Speaker 3: to maintain gap discipline while also forcing those turnovers.

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Speaker 4: They're disrupting your handle.

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Speaker 3: Nikola Jokic has never been as flummix and as frustrated

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Speaker 3: as I saw him in that series, where there was

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Speaker 3: just possessions where he would turn and they're just taking

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Speaker 3: the ball away from him and the home court advantage,

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Speaker 3: I think is a huge part of that as well,

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Speaker 3: because in that building it's so loud, those fans are

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Speaker 3: so good.

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Speaker 4: You can't hear the call outs of.

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Speaker 3: Hey guys coming behind you, like Wolflee get you can't

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Speaker 3: hear those callouts behind you, and then all of a sudden,

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Speaker 3: you turn and the ball is just being ripped away

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Speaker 3: from you and going the other direction. They have so

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Speaker 3: many good defenders, like Shae is second in the league

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Speaker 3: in steals. He is a perfectly good defender, and he's

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Speaker 3: like the seventh best defender on this squad. You got

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Speaker 3: home grind, you got Hartenstein defending down low. That allows

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Speaker 3: the guards to play more physical to the perimeter and

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Speaker 3: really attack the handle and force them the other direction.

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Speaker 3: You've got you know you mentioned Caruso. The secret guy

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Speaker 3: is Jalen Williams Jadab.

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Speaker 4: When I did the.

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Speaker 3: MVP work on Shay and I was watching all of

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Speaker 3: Shay's defensive possessions when he was on the court, the guy.

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Speaker 4: That stood out was Jadub.

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Speaker 3: He's everywhere, man like jumping up and stealing passes out

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Speaker 3: of the air from the guy right there, weak side

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Speaker 3: blocks underneath, challenging and being physical with guys like this

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Speaker 3: is he is such a game changer for them defensively

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Speaker 3: as good as Ludor is, and they all agree he's

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Speaker 3: the best defender as good as Caruso is. And everyone

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Speaker 3: agrees Caruso is the second best Caruso by the way,

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Speaker 3: says Case and Wallace is third. Jadov's versatility is what

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Speaker 3: like separates them. He is like he is that linebacker

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Speaker 3: that can play in coverage. He can blitz, he can drop,

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Speaker 3: he can play man like. He is unbelievable in how

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Speaker 3: many things that he can do and that you add

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Speaker 3: all that up together, and when they are in sync,

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Speaker 3: it is a nightmare for teams to deal with.

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Speaker 1: So when you look at these teams, Uh, what's interesting

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Speaker 1: is you could argue this is the Paul George Finals

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Speaker 1: because both of these teams were built off of trades

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Speaker 1: when Paul George was the marquee player for each team.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into the game one breakdown, I know

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Speaker 1: Simon wants to like dig in on you know who's

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Speaker 1: going to cover in Game one, but just give a

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Speaker 1: little context because there is a great sort of sub

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Speaker 1: story here around how these teams were built with relations

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Speaker 1: to Paul George.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: One of the things I think is great is that

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Speaker 4: this wasn't you know.

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Speaker 3: I have a lot of respect for pg did a

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Speaker 3: big feature on him a couple of years ago for

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Speaker 3: MVP for Action. He was kind of sit down with me,

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Speaker 3: but they didn't move on from PGS and like they

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Speaker 3: pulled the rug out from under him. This wasn't like

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Speaker 3: bringing Blake Griffin in and talking about him as a

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Speaker 3: legend and then shipping him out six months later. Paul

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Speaker 3: George was like, Hey, I want to go home, Like

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Speaker 3: I want to go back to la That's where I

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Speaker 3: want to be, and I'm teaming up with Kawhi and Sam.

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Speaker 3: Presty was like, we can make that happen, no problem,

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Speaker 3: and came to the Clippers with the terms of the

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Speaker 3: deal and they found it appropriate. Got shay Yos Alexander

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Speaker 3: and this great story from Presty where he talks about

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Speaker 3: how like he was still trying to deal with the

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Speaker 3: aftermath of moving Russ and like how dramatic it was

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Speaker 3: that offseason, Like that was really hard for him. Like

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Speaker 3: Russ was a big part of that organization internally. They

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Speaker 3: loved that guy. They still love that guy, and yet

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Speaker 3: he goes in and while he's doing all these calls

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Speaker 3: and trying to manage all that, Shay is already at

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Speaker 3: the facility already working out, Like he's already come in

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Speaker 3: and he's already getting a workout in, and he was

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Speaker 3: like he just remembered that as a really big moment.

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Speaker 3: And for Shay to have been the center piece of

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Speaker 3: that deal and for how that worked out, an absolutely

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Speaker 3: incredible story and it's a testament to how OKAC did

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Speaker 3: handle that transition. You know, they made the playoffs in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty. This team didn't tank for half a decade.

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Speaker 3: They tanked for two years, missed the playoffs and the

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Speaker 3: third and then we're back in because they took the

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Speaker 3: time to really invest in player development and make sure

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Speaker 3: that they weren't just tanking to get star talent. They

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Speaker 3: were building what they had. They got lucky with some

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Speaker 3: of the some of the selections, but they were very

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Speaker 3: deliberate with how they built that team up. And for Indiana,

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Speaker 3: you know, Demonas Sabonis was considered a great player, like

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Speaker 3: he had taken into the playoffs, he was a really

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Speaker 3: big part of their team, and they risked it in

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Speaker 3: sending Sabonis for Tyres Halliburton because they recognized what Halliburton

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Speaker 3: could do. And then the trader I love is Siakam

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Speaker 3: One when's the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. The Kings were

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Speaker 3: so hot to trot for Siakam, Like every source I

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Speaker 3: talked to was like, Oh, yeah, he's gonna wind up

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Speaker 3: a King that they're not going to let him go.

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Speaker 3: There's no team that's going to come in over the top.

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Speaker 3: And the Pacers snuck in when there was a breakdown

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Speaker 3: in talks with the Kings and grab Sakam and that

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Speaker 3: foundationally transform their team. And last season when they made

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Speaker 3: up that run to the Eastern Conference Finals, they'd only

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Speaker 3: played with Siakam for two months. Hallie had been out

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Speaker 3: the entire first month that he was there, so they

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Speaker 3: had really no time to get together. And there was

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Speaker 3: these videos in the off season of Siakam brought in

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Speaker 3: guys to his his gym to do offseason workouts and

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Speaker 3: was in the young guys faces being like, you think

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Speaker 3: we've done something, We haven't done anything.

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Speaker 4: I've been there and didn't go back.

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Speaker 3: You cannot go in with that mentality, Like it got

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Speaker 3: me Brady to run through a wall for him.

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Speaker 4: And you see the intensity of this team plays with.

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Speaker 3: It's rough for PG to look like this, but I

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Speaker 3: got to say, like the moves have worked out absolutely

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Speaker 3: terrific with both teams and how they built these squads.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like PG, the picks they got the Pacers got

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Speaker 1: when they traded Paul George. You see that all over

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Speaker 1: the court right today for that for both both of

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Speaker 1: these teams were literally built by trading Paul George. H Simon,

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Speaker 1: I appreciate your patience, but I just wanted to make

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Speaker 1: it clear this is the Paul George Finals.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and the okay see thing has been crazy of

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Speaker 2: just how dams they've been. But if you watch the

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Speaker 2: playoffs like most fans have, Denver was the real test,

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Speaker 2: right they they weren't a shoeing to beat that team

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Speaker 2: like Denver easily could have won that series. And the reason,

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Speaker 2: you know, people I listened to that Saty loss is

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Speaker 2: because the rotation, right, okay see, was deeper they had

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Speaker 2: the guys, is there a single thing you look at

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Speaker 2: this Pacers team they can attack this okay thing, okay

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Speaker 2: see team that gives them an advantage Like what are

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Speaker 2: you trying to grasp at with this Pacers team? Because

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Speaker 2: everyone I talk to you, that's no's basketball. It's just

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Speaker 2: like you kind of need a miracle like the one

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Speaker 2: you had with the Knicks against the Boston team, Like,

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Speaker 2: is that the same kind of scenario here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not great, not great, Simon. It's not a

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Speaker 3: great look for them in their situation. The model for me,

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Speaker 3: like there's other ways that they could do this if

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Speaker 3: they still game two, but for me, it comes down

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Speaker 3: to Game one. Is that if you like Pacers, I

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Speaker 3: think you should be on Pacers Game one, Pacers series, right,

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Speaker 3: and you're gonna get.

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Speaker 4: A big number on that.

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Speaker 3: They gotta steal game one because they gotta follow the

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Speaker 3: script of Denver. This is where I have a hard

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Speaker 3: time trying to get the value on the number, because

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Speaker 3: I think the market is ahead of where I've got,

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Speaker 3: Like it is definitively ahead of where I've got this

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Speaker 3: this power rated. That was a big reason I was

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Speaker 3: all in on Indiana in the last round is I

294
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Speaker 3: was I'm higher on Indiana on power rating and was

295
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Speaker 3: lower on New York And the market is just like

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Speaker 3: way ahead here on OKC, Like I make this minus

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Speaker 3: five to fourteen, it's minus seven hundred in the market

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Speaker 3: Oh so you want Indiana didn't say that. That's not

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Speaker 3: something that makes me feel good. If they can steal

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Speaker 3: game one, you have to factor in. In any thunder series,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna get blown out twice. In OKAC, it's just

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Speaker 3: like you gotta bake that in. Like I literally had

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Speaker 3: to run a deviation on model just to be like,

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Speaker 3: I need you to give me two blowouts and OKC,

305
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Speaker 3: and just like, what does that look like from a

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Speaker 3: number perspective, whether it's game two, game seven, game five,

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Speaker 3: Game seven, game five, game two, whatever, you're gonna lose

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Speaker 3: two by twenty or more. In OKC, they just do

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Speaker 3: that to you. But if they could steal game one,

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Speaker 3: all right, now you're in the same Denver script. They

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Speaker 3: come back and they wax you in game two, no problem.

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Speaker 3: You come home up to up split one one. That

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Speaker 3: game three spot at the field House, no finals since

314
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Speaker 3: two thousand building is gonna be raucous. OKC does underperform,

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Speaker 3: especially against the spread on the road. They have not

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Speaker 3: been great this postseason. That's been the big thing is

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Speaker 3: home versus away. Steal game three, you're up to one.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's doing the same thing from the Denver series, which

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Speaker 3: is like, oh my god, is this gonna happen? Are

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Speaker 3: they prepared? They're gonna come back and kill you in

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Speaker 3: game four. They're going to kill you in game five.

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Speaker 3: That gives you Game six at home to four to seven.

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Speaker 3: And you've got more guys than Denver, so you're not

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Speaker 3: going to be this wreck of a mass unit with

325
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Speaker 3: Aaron Gordon on one hamstring and MPG with one shoulder.

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Speaker 3: You've been the hottest shooting team in the playoffs. Pacers

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Speaker 3: have the best effective field goal percentage of any team

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Speaker 3: in the postseason. That makes you live. I am literally saying,

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Speaker 3: you gotta get to a Game seven just to have

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Speaker 3: a chance here any other outcome, and I think it's

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Speaker 3: thunder definitively. They got a steal Game one, all right.

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Speaker 1: So go ahead, some what are you gonna say something?

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Speaker 2: Well, I was gonna hit him with the trend. They

334
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Speaker 2: haven't trend. I mean we have to talk about it.

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Speaker 2: So obviously NBA Finals Game one underdogs horrible, horrible bet chat,

336
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Speaker 2: which was just shocking to me because it always feels

337
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Speaker 2: like that's the game, like we're talking about here, you

338
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Speaker 2: need to steal, right if you're the underdog over the

339
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 2: last twenty years Game one underdogs two and eighteen straight up,

340
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Speaker 2: three and seventeen against the spread. And you know, when

341
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Speaker 2: you really break it down about bigger dogs, Chad, it

342
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 2: gets even worse. So if it's five points or more,

343
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Speaker 2: they're zero to twelve straight up, one and eleven against

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Speaker 2: the spread since two thousand and four. So the last

345
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Speaker 2: time it happened, the Pistons were at eight point dog

346
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Speaker 2: and they went outright. So they were saying that when

347
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Speaker 2: the dogs this big and game one, you can just

348
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Speaker 2: take the money line if you're really that ambitious kind

349
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Speaker 2: of hear what Matt's talking about. It's like, don't mess

350
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Speaker 2: with the spread, like they don't have a chance apparently

351
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Speaker 2: in this game one. So just reading those trends makes

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Speaker 2: me a little scared where it's it's already stacked against them.

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Speaker 2: That that's the reason the books they have this exact

354
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Speaker 2: same data. Don't be shocked that this opened at plus

355
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Speaker 2: seven and a half plus eight and got bet up

356
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,480
Speaker 2: to plus nine because the pros everyone obviously took a

357
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,920
Speaker 2: position very quickly because of this exact trend. So that's

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Speaker 2: all I just want to throw in their Chad.

359
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and Matt, what's your take on that.

360
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, here's so, here's another one. Here's another one.

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Speaker 3: The pro so, if we look at the history, only

362
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Speaker 3: two teams beyond a three seed have ever won the

363
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Speaker 3: NBA title. They're trying to become the third team. It's

364
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,640
Speaker 3: ninety five Rockets, nineteen sixty nine Celtics.

365
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 3: So you're they're going up against history here, teams when

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Speaker 3: you've got a more than three seed differential in game one,

368
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 3: are they're three?

369
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Speaker 4: And oh?

370
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Speaker 3: These one seeds, the one seeds have it like Okase

371
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 3: checks every box. They won forty games before losing twenty

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Speaker 3: ninety five percent of all winners over the last twenty

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Speaker 3: years have done that.

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Speaker 4: All of these markers.

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00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 3: Are in favor of OKAC for the series wins. So

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Speaker 3: this really would have to be an outlier year. Now,

377
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Speaker 3: this is an outlier year in general because look at

378
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Speaker 3: all the all the big heavy teams that have gone down,

379
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 3: and we've seen a lot of trends busted in these playoffs.

380
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 3: Teams coming off of Game sevens were such a rock

381
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 3: solid play to fade and they did great in the

382
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,440
Speaker 3: second round that killed us on buckets.

383
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 4: So there's been trend differentials this year.

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Speaker 3: It's a different era at the same time, like if

385
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 3: you look at those performances of teams in game one,

386
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 3: you look at teams in game one also that are

387
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Speaker 3: elite defenses. If they allow fewer than one hundred and

388
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 3: ten points in that first game of the finals, they're

389
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:33,360
Speaker 3: twenty nine to ten in those spots. It's tough for

390
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 3: to find the kind of reasoning here, which is a

391
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,720
Speaker 3: big reason why on series plays, even though I get

392
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,240
Speaker 3: I don't like the market, I feel like I'm just

393
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 3: gonna have to bet OKC on series spread lines based

394
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 3: off of the basketball handicap, the script differential and all

395
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 3: these things. There's basketball stuff I can find that makes

396
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 3: me like Indy, like I can find, especially on the

397
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 3: defensive side for Indy, there's a lot of things I

398
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 3: actually can find that I like there.

399
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 4: It's just like, does that get them within rain? Yeah?

400
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 4: Does that get them the win? Probably not?

401
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:08,719
Speaker 1: What do you like defensively or on the court. In

402
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 1: your breakdown about the Pacers.

403
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 3: So in the regular season matchups, right, they got waxed

404
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 3: by Okasee lost by twenty both times, no surprise. Okasee

405
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 3: has won sixty eight games this season by double digits,

406
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,399
Speaker 3: which is insane. But what they did was they had

407
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,239
Speaker 3: Andrew Nemhar guard Shakeyos Alexander on pick and roll and

408
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 3: they didn't deviate from that. Aaron NEI Smith, you remember

409
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 3: how good he was on Jalen Brunson to the first

410
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 3: half of the series. Six total possessions guarding shake Ghost Alexander.

411
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: Now that wasn't them hiding it for the finals. Nie

412
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,120
Speaker 3: Smith was out for one and they just you play

413
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 3: your base coverage in the regular season. But putting Nie

414
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 3: Smith on Shay that's a move I really like because

415
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 3: what you want to be able to do is you

416
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 3: want to put him in a crowd that the Wolves

417
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 3: did in Game three and then make him make tough

418
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: shots in a really tight crowd or shoot pull up threes.

419
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:01,680
Speaker 4: The Pacers weak side.

420
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: Defense is actually a little bit sharper than Minnesota's with

421
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 3: the personnel that they were playing, and Minnesota is a

422
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 3: lot or Indiana is a lot more comfortable playing small

423
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 3: than Minnesota is. Minnesota got so far away from game script.

424
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 3: Chris Finch, I think is an excellent coach. He got

425
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 3: worked in that series, and I think he got in

426
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 3: his own head a little bit. Indiana is a lot

427
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 3: more comfortable with throwing out different coverages, particularly zone. If

428
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 3: you remember, zone was one of the things that the

429
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 3: Nuggets threw in that really screwed with Okac's offense throughout

430
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 3: the middle part of that series. You're gonna see a

431
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 3: lot of that in this series as well. And if

432
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 3: this becomes not about turnovers and not about athleticism, but

433
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 3: it becomes about shooting, that's where Okac starts to waiver

434
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 3: a little bit. Their road splits are horrific for their

435
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:51,159
Speaker 3: role players, lou Dort, Caruso, Case and Wallace, all these guys,

436
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 3: even Jaylen Williams, struggle a lot hitting open threes on

437
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 3: the road. And Indy is, like I said, they're shooting

438
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 3: the lights out. They've been shooting the lights out since

439
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,959
Speaker 3: the start of the playoffs. So this turns into if

440
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 3: they don't turn the ball over, and Tyrese Haliburton is

441
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 3: one of the lowest turnover point guards.

442
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,360
Speaker 4: Indy is the second best.

443
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 3: Team at preventing turnovers from the regular season, and they've

444
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 3: been great in the postseason. You don't give Okac easy

445
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: chances off turnovers. The offensive rebound battle actually leans towards

446
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 3: Indiana in this matchup versus okc, if they can not

447
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 3: turn the ball over, make this into a shooting contest.

448
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 3: I like that stuff for Indiana, but it's like, Okay,

449
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,880
Speaker 3: what does that get you? The problem is I can

450
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 3: make a basketball cap to shorten the margin. I can't

451
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 3: get the margin to zero or plus one for Indiana

452
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 3: in these matchups because the gap between them and team

453
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 3: strength is two wide.

454
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 1: There was a great story in the Wall Street Journal

455
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: last week about how long the ball is in Tyrese

456
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: Haliburton's hands on a possession, and that on average, it

457
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: was in his hands for about three and a half

458
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: seconds per possession. By comparison, Jalen Brunson was the highest

459
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: percentage or highest amount of seconds, at close to seven

460
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: seconds per possession. I just thought that was an amazing

461
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 1: stack because it speaks to the pace of the Pacers

462
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 1: offense and how quickly they are looking to get the

463
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: ball up court. Like you can see it, like every

464
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 1: single possession ies down the court, eyes down the court,

465
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: linked to the court, passes over the top of the defense,

466
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 1: coming out of baskets. I mean, why was that so

467
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: effective for the Knicks against the Knicks and why will

468
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 1: it be so ineffective against the thunder. What will they

469
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: do differently?

470
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 3: It was a problem for every team that they've faced.

471
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: And this is actually something that I've talked to coaches

472
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 3: about in the league. So there's a difference between tempo

473
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,719
Speaker 3: and pace. And the idea of the Pacers is like, well,

474
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 3: they're just running, run and run and running, trying to

475
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 3: get fast break points. They'll do those outlet passes for

476
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 3: the quick dunks like you saw with Seakham. They'll take

477
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 3: that when it's there. But they actually have the second

478
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 3: most shots this season playoffs, in regular season combined with

479
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: four to seven seconds left on the clock. That's considered

480
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: late by NBA terms, And so you try and figure out, like,

481
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 3: what does that mean. It's if you watch they play

482
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 3: with tempo more than they play with pace. This is

483
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 3: an old Spurs thing that Tony Parker used to do.

484
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 3: You make a basket crowd celebrating boom, he's up the

485
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 3: court and he's initiating first action at twenty seconds, eighteen seconds,

486
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 3: first screen, first pass is already executing, so they're moving well.

487
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 3: The other team is still doing three point celebrations and

488
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 3: they'll they will continue to get into those and attack them.

489
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 4: And when Indy has their worst games.

490
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 3: They get away from that Game five versus the Knicks,

491
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 3: you could see it like they were just slowed down.

492
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 3: They were executing offense at twelve seconds fourteen seconds. When

493
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: they are playing up tempo. It gets them a little

494
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 3: bit further off. Now, what the Knicks did in game

495
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 3: five two is they picked up Haliburton across half court.

496
00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 3: They picked him up at fifty feet from the basket,

497
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 3: so they started picking him up what way past half.

498
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 4: Court to put pressure on him.

499
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: In game six, he solved that with some screens in

500
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 3: the back court, played a little bit faster in terms

501
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: of getting ahead of it and breaking that press and

502
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 3: then also having somebody else. One of the great things

503
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 3: about Haliburton is he'll defer. One of the things I

504
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 3: love about him is he'll if you switch, if you

505
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 3: put your big on him, if they really they're playing

506
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 3: one big and it's Chet Holmgren, he'll take Chet and

507
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 3: he'll he'll get the switch, and then he'll pass off

508
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: and he'll hang. Because Holmgren has to respect his three

509
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 3: point shot, which means there's no longer a shot blocker underneath.

510
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 3: And the question is gonna be cannemhard Cannie Smith, can McConnell,

511
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 3: Can Siakam attack the basket against that pressure and break it.

512
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 3: That's a big question, but those are gonna be the

513
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 3: kind of challenges that you're gonna see in this series.

514
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 3: And if Haliburton is able to navigate this and is

515
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 3: able to break that defense. A big question for me

516
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 3: is going to be if the thunder coming into the

517
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 3: series and they're like, you're not gonna be able to pass. Man,

518
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 3: We're gonna we're gonna we're staying home on everybody. We're

519
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 3: switching everything. We're gonna give you these switches, but we're

520
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 3: also gonna shut down all your your other options. We're

521
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: not shading off. We're okay with all our guys can defend.

522
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to score.

523
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 4: Can Holly do that? Because that's not in his mindset.

524
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,120
Speaker 3: He's got that Steve Nash about him where he always

525
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 3: wants to make the right play.

526
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 4: If he has like a.

527
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: Monster scoring performance several times, that breaks that defense, forces

528
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 3: more help and out Okase's in rotation.

529
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 4: And they hate it.

530
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: But he's gonna have to beat play, I think with

531
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 3: a little bit more deliberation, and he's gonna have to

532
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 3: play with a little bit more of a I have

533
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 3: to score here to bend this defense, because if you

534
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 3: just take what the defense gives you, Okac gives you

535
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 3: things that seem like, oh this is a good It

536
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 3: was not a good shot, it was blocked, it was

537
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: a turnover, et cetera. You have to force them out

538
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 3: of their comfort zone if you're gonna break that defense.

539
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 2: And you did mention earlier series how you're betnett if

540
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: people don't know the series price. Obviously we're talking with Thunder,

541
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: huge favorite minus seven hundred, Pacers plus five hundred. Can

542
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 2: you talk a little bout how you're attacking the series price?

543
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,479
Speaker 2: And obviously you're not gonna betting minus seven hundred. Are

544
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 2: you just going to betting by the games or which

545
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 2: way you breaking down that number? Yeah?

546
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: I like the series spread. I'm taking Thunder minus two

547
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 3: and a half games. There's a minus one ten out there.

548
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: That's a really good number to me based off of

549
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 3: when I get to Okay, if we price in those

550
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 3: two blowouts I'm expecting for OKAC at home, the odds

551
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 3: are that we're gonna be able to get that in

552
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 3: two in five, or at least have a high enough

553
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: margin here, it's I don't there's no real value on

554
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,719
Speaker 3: Thunder Game one Thunder series right, that's minus three hundred.

555
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 3: That's a tough price I think to get into. With

556
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 3: the Thunder being on the stage for the first time,

557
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 3: both these teams are inexperienced at this point. I do

558
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 3: think there's a coaching edge for Rick Carlisle, But to me,

559
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: like Thunder minus two and a half, they either sweep

560
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 3: or finish it in five. It could be I think

561
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 3: we could have some really great games in it. You know,

562
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: we could have an awesome Game one, an awesome Game three,

563
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 3: maybe a good game four, and still wind up with

564
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 3: Thunder in winning in five or four.

565
00:27:58,840 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 4: Here.

566
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 3: I've loved this Pacers team. They've been one of the

567
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 3: most fun teams to watch. But this, this Thunder team

568
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 3: is just in another weight class, and if I'm going

569
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 3: to bet it appropriately, I think the value has to

570
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 3: be found when you're taking heavy outcomes. That lean in

571
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 3: Okase's favor.

572
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,199
Speaker 1: Is the what about Thunder and five. If you're going

573
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: to bet minus two and a half, why not Thunder

574
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 1: in five as well?

575
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 3: Because I think that there's an opportunity there for If

576
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 3: the problem is okac has the same kind of comeback

577
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 3: ability that the Pacers do.

578
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 4: Right, We've seen them come back heavy.

579
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,440
Speaker 3: But if you remember the Thunder, we're down thirty to

580
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 3: Memphis came back and won that game. Now, the Pacers

581
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: are a lot better than Memphis, for sure, But I

582
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: do think that there's a possibility that this is actually

583
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 3: the Pacers come out with a great first half in

584
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 3: Game three.

585
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 4: Thunder a second half team.

586
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 3: They've been that all year where it's like you look

587
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 3: up and all of a sudden, your double digit lead

588
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 3: is gone.

589
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 4: In the third quarter.

590
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 3: They pish it, but they push in the middle of

591
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 3: the fourth and then they finish you out. So I

592
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 3: want that opportunity for Thunder and four. I don't want

593
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 3: to close off my opportunity in case the Thunder do

594
00:28:58,560 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 3: take Game.

595
00:28:59,000 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 4: Three as well.

596
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: You know what's go ahead, Sammon?

597
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 2: No, I mean, I'm just gonna once again add to

598
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 2: it the upsets, Like we're just talking about really big

599
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: numbers here, you know, last big serious price you get

600
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: like this with an upset not that long ago, which

601
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: shocked me because it was like, oh, I wasn't even

602
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: thinking about that Heat Celtics series. So twenty twenty three

603
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 2: Heat over the Celtics, two thousand and nine Magic over

604
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 2: the Cavs, and two thousand and four Piston over that

605
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: Lakers team. So what we're talking about here obviously is

606
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: incredibly rare. That's why this number once again has been

607
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 2: met up by the professionals, because guys, if they're putting

608
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 2: down five to six figures, they don't mind eating minus

609
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: seven hundred, minus six fifty minus eight hundred some books

610
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 2: have already moved to. So I just want people to

611
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: be aware of those prices, and like, if you we

612
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: all believe, right, there's like part of us all wants

613
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: to believe in this Pacers team because it is basketball, right,

614
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: It's all about balls having to go in the hoop.

615
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: Some teams, that doesn't happen for me. And when we

616
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 2: saw it with that Boston series, it was a totally

617
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 2: different series because Boston just couldn't hit their threes. And

618
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: that's the way the NBA has been now. So you know,

619
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: as someone that's like very tempted to bet the Pacers,

620
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: Evan has just been killing me with all these trends.

621
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: So I just want people to be aware of the trends.

622
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 2: They don't really favorite betting these type of dogs, and

623
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:16,719
Speaker 2: I think Matt agrees with that.

624
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I got two more trends here that we

625
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 3: kind of go along with that. The other thing that's

626
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:26,479
Speaker 3: correlated with these dog favorite spots is the under the

627
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 3: under in home Favorite game ones fourteen and eight last

628
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 3: twenty two. If we go to teams that have allowed

629
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 3: fewer than one hundred and ten points per game, I

630
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 3: wish we had a defensive rating, but we don't. But

631
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 3: teams that are in that kind of spot in game

632
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: one of the Finals twenty five and fourteen to the under.

633
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 3: In these spots, there's been like a lot of opportunities here,

634
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 3: I think for the under opportunities to be in play

635
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 3: for this game one. This total ticked up after the open.

636
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 3: We talked about it on Buckets Live that there was

637
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 3: immediate action kind of pushing the over.

638
00:30:58,800 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 4: I'm going to be back in.

639
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 3: I think on the under here, the problem is always

640
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 3: OKAC causing turnovers and those running up easy transition points.

641
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 3: But again, this is a low turnover team. So even

642
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: if they turn it over more than they can and

643
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 3: survive winning the game or covering, there's still an opportunity

644
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 3: here for them to not give Okasey's offense.

645
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 4: Enough life for the under, I'm.

646
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 3: Gonna be looking I think, by the way, on the

647
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 3: other side of this, let's script it. If you like thunder,

648
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 3: it's thunder, it's thunderspread and under. If you like Pacers,

649
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 3: it's Pacers, money line and over. That's got to be

650
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 3: the way that you play this. From that perspective, Indiana

651
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 3: can win some of these games with unders, but it's

652
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 3: gonna be real tough against this particular.

653
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 4: Team Matt.

654
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 1: You Simon mentioned Boston. We haven't brought up the Lakers.

655
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: If you had to predict who's going to win a

656
00:31:52,480 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 1: title first in the next five years, Lakers or Mavericks.

657
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 3: I mean, it's one hundred percent the Lakers. We talked

658
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: about this late in the season on Buckets. We talked

659
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 3: about what the price would have to be for you

660
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 3: to bet the Lakers to win the twenty twenty sixth title.

661
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 3: And you know, I was given out numbers and Brandon

662
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 3: Anderson and Sean Little were killing me. There's like no way, man, No.

663
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 3: I was like, all right, what's the number that you want?

664
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 3: And they're like, it's got to be twenty to one. Yeah,

665
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 3: that's twenty to one.

666
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 4: In the market.

667
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 3: They're gonna have an entire offseason to rebuild around Luca.

668
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 3: There's already I've been talking to people around the league.

669
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 3: Nick Claxton's a name to look out for. There's a

670
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 3: lot of thought that they're gonna make a move for

671
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 3: Nick Claxton as a rim runner big. They're gonna add wings,

672
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 3: They're gonna add other opportunities.

673
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 4: They still have assets to trade.

674
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 3: Austin Reeves is probably gonna get moved, and that's a

675
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 3: big trade piece for them. The Lakers are in a

676
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 3: great spot. Mavericks are without Kyrie Irving. I don't know

677
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 3: what this looks like after them. Love Cooper flag, but

678
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 3: this is a terrible situation that he's going in. But

679
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 3: if you gave me the option of those or the

680
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: San Antonio Spurs, Jed, I would take the San Antonio Spurs.

681
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: Really.

682
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 3: Victor Man, Victor Weman Yama, even coming off the blood

683
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: clot Man, his game is so far behind his impact

684
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: where he's not even that good at so many simple

685
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: basic things. He still gets knocked out of the way

686
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 3: on drives, he still gets out of position, He's still

687
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 3: you know, confused. He doesn't have go to moves his

688
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 3: footwork isn't perfect, and then you look at the overall

689
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 3: numbers and it's like they are monsters with him on

690
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: the court. He's just gonna get better. They added the

691
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: Air and Fox. They've got the number two pick, and

692
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: there's a lot of conversations about what they're gonna do

693
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: as far as whether they keep that pick and take

694
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 3: Dylan Harper or trade it for a major upgrade. Everyone's

695
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 3: waiting to hear about Giannis, but it might be for

696
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 3: something else as well. They've got cap space, flexibility, they've

697
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 3: got draft picks. That Spurs team is set up. We

698
00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 3: are probably gonna get another Lakers Spurs rivalry like we

699
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 3: did in the early two thousands. I think we're going

700
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: to see that again here with Luca versus Victor Webbin

701
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 3: Yama over and over again.

702
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 4: In the West.

703
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 2: Let me speak in you mentioned the draft. I need

704
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: to sneak in pick three. It's the only pick on

705
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: the board with any value my sixers. Is it as Bailey?

706
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 2: Who the hell are they taking? Is there a long

707
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 2: shot outside guy you put money on? Or am I

708
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 2: just betting plus one hundred you know, minus one ten

709
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 2: on this? Ace Bailey kid? A put pick.

710
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 3: Three, So I think that it's probably if you were

711
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 3: If you had to better, I would wait because I

712
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 3: don't think we have enough intel right now.

713
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 4: But you had to, I would bet Bailey.

714
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: But if I actually had to, I would bet if

715
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 3: I could, if it was in the market, I would

716
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: bet Bailey, not Sixers at three. There's a couple of

717
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 3: teams that are absolutely in on Bailey and are looking

718
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: to move up, and the Sixers are interested in those conversations.

719
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 3: So there's an opportunity there if the Sixers keep the pick.

720
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 4: I think VJ. Edgecomb probably goes there. That's how I

721
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 4: have to go there talking.

722
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 2: To me Letcher, are we really about to trade Maxing

723
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 2: that third pick for you? Honest? Is that real? Is

724
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 2: that just? Is that just off season talk?

725
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,399
Speaker 4: That's off season talk. Everyone's waiting. There was a meeting,

726
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 4: so there was two meetings.

727
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 2: There was a meeting with.

728
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 3: Giannis a couple of weeks ago, and no word came

729
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 3: out of that. That was with the front office. There

730
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 3: was an ownership meeting with the front office last week

731
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 3: and there's been like weird noise coming out of that one.

732
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 3: But so far everybody in Milwaukee is making noise about

733
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 3: Giannis is staying we're going to do a gap year.

734
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 3: It's going to be okay. That can change it in

735
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: any second if he asks out it's bidding season. But

736
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 3: I also think that they are less likely. I do

737
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 3: not think that, I will say this, I do not

738
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 3: think the Sixers are trading Tyres Maxie. I do not

739
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 3: find any situation where they trade Tyres Maxie. They are

740
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 3: more likely to trade every other asset.

741
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:38,720
Speaker 4: I would say that they might.

742
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 3: Even be more likely to trade Joelle than they are

743
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 3: to trade Tyrese. So I would not worry about trading

744
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 3: Tyres in the third I would not be surprised if

745
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 3: they did a deal for Jannis.

746
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 4: That's a very Daryl Morey thing to do.

747
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 3: But they'll have a lot of competition, and we're a

748
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 3: long way from there because we got to figure out

749
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 3: what Yannis wants first, and as of right now, there's

750
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:56,879
Speaker 3: still no news and nobody knows.

751
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: The Bay spot is so interesting because people are so

752
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 1: divided on Ace Bailey. Are you getting a guy who's

753
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,879
Speaker 1: at a ceiling? Are you getting a guy who can

754
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 1: live up to the potential? Like if I'm the Sixers,

755
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 1: getting that three spot was a little bit of a

756
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: curse because with the first two spots with Flag and Harper,

757
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: you kind of know what you're getting. You're getting NBA

758
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 1: ready guys. You know they can come and make an impact,

759
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: and you know they've got superstar potential. Ace Bailey could

760
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: just as easily be James Wiseman as he is the

761
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: next great NBA All Star. Matt you agree? Is that

762
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: a real conversation.

763
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, The problem is just like he's he won, he's

764
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 3: There's two different thoughts of people I've talked to.

765
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 4: One is, I don't like his approach. He's a gunner.

766
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 3: He's gonna shoot too much. He needs years to refine this.

767
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 3: He is not ready to play smart, competitive, high level

768
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: back basketball because of his mindset, and like, I don't

769
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 3: want to commit a lot of money to that kind

770
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 3: of guy. That's just like scoring doesn't make teammates better.

771
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 3: The other thought is like, look, he could be a

772
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 3: really great player. He just needs seasoning, he just needs

773
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,280
Speaker 3: he's a prospect, but it's going to take several years.

774
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 3: Like he's just really raw, and so that combo I

775
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 3: think has got enough people skinned. But I think his

776
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 3: interesting is Again, I've heard that there's a couple of

777
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 3: teams that are in spots five through ten that are

778
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 3: very much interested in Bailey and are like, no, that's

779
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 3: the kind of talent that we need.

780
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 4: But if the team's up at the top the other one.

781
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 3: I thought Dylan Harper was like Locke, and he probably

782
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 3: is going to I'm not saying he's not. I will

783
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 3: say there's a lot of weirdness going on around, like

784
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 3: no one really knows what san Antonio is gonna do,

785
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 3: and there's a lot of scouts that are like, I'm

786
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 3: not putting Harper one hundred percent at two.

787
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 4: I'm just not.

788
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 2: So that'll be three thousand just for the people at

789
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 2: home to be number two.

790
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like I again, most likely that's what's gonna happen.

791
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 3: He is the consensus number two pick in this draft.

792
00:37:58,239 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 4: I love Harper's game.

793
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: I would take him too, But I do think that

794
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 3: there's a lot of questions about fit culture, a lot

795
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 3: of stuff.

796
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 4: With Harper, and the Spurs are a.

797
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 3: Tough fit for a lot of guys, which is why

798
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:11,879
Speaker 3: they go outside the box a lot of the time.

799
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 3: And they've got a logjam there with Fox and Castle,

800
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 3: who they do really like. He can out of a

801
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:20,759
Speaker 3: bad draft. Class one Rookie of the Year and a

802
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: bad year, but they do like him, they're invested in him.

803
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 3: So I'm very curious that there could be some chaos

804
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 3: here at the top and that would be that would

805
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 3: make for a lot of wild outcomes.

806
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 4: I think in the draft markets.

807
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 1: How does Edgecombe fit with the Sixers. Their backcourt, like

808
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: from a starting perspective, was kind of loaded, and they've

809
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: got similar players, like undersized athletic players.

810
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the idea is just one He's like, if

811
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 3: he's the best talent, that's what you take.

812
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 4: You always take a best talent with top three.

813
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 3: If you like his talent better than Bailey, then you

814
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 3: just you take the best talent. The other kind of

815
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: mindset here is, look, if they move off Paul George,

816
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 3: then they're gonna need wing help, and the idea is

817
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 3: add as many wing guys, especially guys that can come

818
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 3: in and do multiple things, and they like the versatility

819
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 3: that Edgecomb is going to bring to the table. So

820
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 3: that combo of things is kind of I think why

821
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: Edgecomb is up there. Trey Johnson is the other name,

822
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 3: but there's a lot of skepticism that that any team

823
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 3: can really justify going for for Trey Johnson. What I

824
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 3: will say though, is, as always, the mock drafts are

825
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 3: not as important, the big boards are not as important.

826
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 4: Picked by pick. They're good in.

827
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 3: The aggregate, but if the sixers board is different, the

828
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 3: sixers board is different. And so much of this comes

829
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 3: down to It's why I am always most keen to

830
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 3: hear about how do the interviews of the combine go?

831
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,360
Speaker 3: Because not the not the measurements, not the on court stuff,

832
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 3: how the interviews go because building personal relationships, building trust

833
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 3: and feeling like this is a kid that we can

834
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 3: invest with the future and and this much emphasis on

835
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 3: is really important. So that part, to me is just

836
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 3: as important as all as all the other stuff as

837
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 3: as far as the basketball skill set goes.

838
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:04,280
Speaker 1: Well, Matt Moore, we trust you, and we trust everything

839
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 1: you've said about the NBA Finals, about the draft, about

840
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 1: who might win a title first between the Lakers, Spurs,

841
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 1: and Mavericks. Excellent work, brother. Everyone should listen to Buckets.

842
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 1: It's been an amazing playoff run. We got more weeks

843
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:25,320
Speaker 1: ahead of us. Hopefully we'll get like I'd like six

844
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: at least, just because I like both these teams and

845
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: I'm going to miss the NBA when it's gone. But

846
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,359
Speaker 1: Matt Moore, great work, great thanks for coming on, Thanks

847
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of

848
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: The Favorites Thursday. Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify,

849
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,680
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850
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,719
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851
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 1: a gift until next time.

852
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: Love you.

853
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:59,560
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854
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,400
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855
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