Speaker 1: Get in touch with technology with tech Stuff from how
Speaker 1: stuff What's dot Com? Hello again, everyone, and welcome to
Speaker 1: tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette and I'm an
Speaker 1: editor at how Stuff works dot com. Sitting across from
Speaker 1: me as usual as senior writer Jonathan Strickland. Hey there, Hey, Chris. Yeah, Jonathan.
Speaker 1: Do you remember back at the the late days of
Speaker 1: two thousand eleven when you and I sat down and
Speaker 1: we made some sweeping predictions about what would happen in
Speaker 1: the world of technology for two thousand twelve. Well, which
Speaker 1: is which is good? Why you reminded me of these things?
Speaker 1: Luckily I took notes? Um. Yeah, So we made predictions,
Speaker 1: and of course every year when we make predictions, we
Speaker 1: hold ourselves accountable by taking our predictions and looking and
Speaker 1: seeing how we did. So let's, um, let's take a
Speaker 1: look at some of these. Uh, should I go first?
Speaker 1: Do you want to go first? Oh? Why don't you
Speaker 1: give it a shot? All right? So my first prediction
Speaker 1: was that economic uncertainty would cause companies to fail or
Speaker 1: get acquired or to scale back, which was such a
Speaker 1: gimme at the end of two thousand eleven that it's
Speaker 1: almost embarrassing to call that a hit, but I am
Speaker 1: telling it as a hit. That was um. I mean
Speaker 1: we saw that happen. We saw lots of companies start
Speaker 1: to cut back. I mean we had everything from the
Speaker 1: uh Yahoo CEO at the time, Scott Thompson talking about
Speaker 1: how he was going to have to cut back on
Speaker 1: a few thousand jobs at Yahoo or all the way
Speaker 1: up to Zinga laying off employees. And I mean we've
Speaker 1: seen a lot of that throughout the tech sector. And
Speaker 1: again it's not a huge surprise. Now, of course, there
Speaker 1: have been some successes in technology, there's been some companies
Speaker 1: have done very well in two thousand twelve. But I
Speaker 1: think I think it's safe for me to call that
Speaker 1: one a hit, all right, So I suppose I should
Speaker 1: give my my first one and go here. Um. Yes,
Speaker 1: I predicted that Yahoo would be purchased by another company,
Speaker 1: possibly the Chinese search giant Ali Baba. Yeah, that would
Speaker 1: be a myth. Well, I also predicted the same thing.
Speaker 1: That was one of my predictions as well. I said
Speaker 1: that they would either be acquired or break up into
Speaker 1: separate companies, and the separate companies would be acquired. So
Speaker 1: that is also a miss. We both at the time
Speaker 1: thought Yahoo was kind of kind of really struggling. I
Speaker 1: mean it really was struggling. And that's that was before
Speaker 1: Scott Thompson came on. And of course Scott Thompson didn't
Speaker 1: last that long. So for a while it looked like
Speaker 1: that prediction might come true. And then they brought on
Speaker 1: Marissa Meyer and uh, and that kind of gave Yahoo
Speaker 1: a bit of a boost in the eye of public opinion. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's at the end of UM that had that those moves,
Speaker 1: especially the the um. They've also struck some content deals
Speaker 1: and things, um, and some high profile people have come
Speaker 1: on to the board of directors. Um. But these things
Speaker 1: are starting to make people think that Yahoo may have
Speaker 1: some life in it yet. UM. And in fact, Meyer, Um,
Speaker 1: well she inspired our our Women of Tech podcast, so
Speaker 1: we did a little while ago. Um. She Uh, she
Speaker 1: has made some some pretty substantial changes even in the
Speaker 1: short time she's been there so far. So people are
Speaker 1: starting to think there there might be a future for y'all.
Speaker 1: Who after all, yeah, and uh, do you want me
Speaker 1: to go again? Are you? Because that was yell who
Speaker 1: was both of us. Yeah, I predicted that the the
Speaker 1: famed A T and T and T Mobile deal would
Speaker 1: fail miserably. And boy were you right? Well yes, despite despite,
Speaker 1: well I was, I was really looking at the uh
Speaker 1: indicators there and I felt like that was a pretty
Speaker 1: sure deal that it was gonna the deal was off.
Speaker 1: That was strange. Um but uh but yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: government regulators felt like it was going to be in
Speaker 1: the United States here, um, where the merger was supposed
Speaker 1: to take place. Um, felt like it just wasn't going
Speaker 1: to help competition after all. No matter what a T
Speaker 1: and T was saying, now, T Mobile didn't and managed
Speaker 1: to uh the thing. As you know, t Bone will
Speaker 1: as the fourth largest carrier in the United States. I mean,
Speaker 1: Deutsche Telecom has a pretty substantial share over in in Europe,
Speaker 1: but in the United States they are their fourth largest.
Speaker 1: People were saying, hey, they can't keep this up, especially
Speaker 1: since they don't have the iPhone. They didn't manage to
Speaker 1: to do some pretty big things this year. They divested
Speaker 1: themselves of their towers, the actual infrastructure for their network.
Speaker 1: Um and uh. They did a couple other small things
Speaker 1: like um, oh, yeah, they decided they would merge with
Speaker 1: Metro PCs, which is I don't know that the fifth
Speaker 1: largest carrier they're they're one of the players that is
Speaker 1: behind the top four and not terribly far one of
Speaker 1: the largest small carriers UM. And by merging that infrastructure,
Speaker 1: which looks like it might happen UM, it looks like
Speaker 1: they might be able to to build out the network
Speaker 1: take it to lte UM. And they've even struck a
Speaker 1: deal with Apple to bring on Apple products, including apparently
Speaker 1: the next version the iPhone later on, which they would
Speaker 1: not have been able to do as efficiently on their own.
Speaker 1: So big deals happening, but not with a T and T,
Speaker 1: so total hit for you. I said that REM would
Speaker 1: experience a change in executives at the topmost layer. Uh,
Speaker 1: and this was you know again, it was I think
Speaker 1: it was either late November or early December when we
Speaker 1: made these predictions, because we we do record ahead of time. Well, Uh,
Speaker 1: we learned early on in these prediction episodes that if
Speaker 1: we didn't make these predictions by what we saw at
Speaker 1: the very end of the year, there may be a
Speaker 1: very good chance that we would be completely off. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but it turned out January two, thou twelve, that's is
Speaker 1: exactly what happened. REM. The the co C e O
Speaker 1: S resigned there's a new CEO at REM, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, this again was sort of a gimme because
Speaker 1: REM was really struggling as well, having having a real
Speaker 1: rough time with the uh the the the added pressures
Speaker 1: of iPhone and Android and even you know a new
Speaker 1: players like Windows Phone eight coming onto the smartphone scene.
Speaker 1: RIM was really struggling, and uh, there were there was
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure from from shareholders for some big
Speaker 1: changes to happen, and failures like the playbook didn't help,
Speaker 1: and that all kind of contributed to it. And so
Speaker 1: now we've seen a changeover at RIM. So I count
Speaker 1: as a hit, yep, yep. And uh I predicted that
Speaker 1: Facebook would have an I p O. UM that was
Speaker 1: a hit, although uh, you know again that was a
Speaker 1: semi gime gimme because they were sort of required to.
Speaker 1: But the science had been pointing. I didn't actually know
Speaker 1: that at the time that we predicted this UM, and
Speaker 1: it looked like everything was pointing that way that they
Speaker 1: were they were getting to the point where they were
Speaker 1: going to try to raise money with their I p O.
Speaker 1: Of course, uh that hasn't been a huge success for them,
Speaker 1: but may still pan out in the end. Of course, yeah.
Speaker 1: I predicted that Facebook would hit one billion users before
Speaker 1: the end of two thousand twelve, which was a hit.
Speaker 1: And you know, based upon the number of users that
Speaker 1: Facebook had at the end of two thousand eleven and
Speaker 1: the traditional growth trend for Facebook, that was a pretty
Speaker 1: safe bet to make and it turned out to pay off.
Speaker 1: So there we go. Facebook has over one billion users. Uh,
Speaker 1: that's a lot of people. That's that's amazing to think about. Technically,
Speaker 1: I guess I should say one billion active accounts because
Speaker 1: some of those accounts may in fact be held by
Speaker 1: you know, a single individual. Yeah, yeah, like of them. Um,
Speaker 1: it's hard to keep track of all those Oh, speaking
Speaker 1: of speaking of social networking, Um, I predicted that Google
Speaker 1: Plus would not fold. People were saying last year. I
Speaker 1: remember people saying, look Google Plus. At first it was
Speaker 1: a Facebook killer, and then it wasn't. Oh look at this,
Speaker 1: this is terrible people, it's just Google blew it again
Speaker 1: on social networking. But I said, no, it's to stick around,
Speaker 1: and I think it will slowly grow, and it slowly has. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's not been dramatic, but that's exactly what you predicted.
Speaker 1: And I remember the early days of Google Plus it
Speaker 1: felt like it was a playground for all the tech
Speaker 1: journalists and tech industry folks, because that's all the people
Speaker 1: I saw on Google Plus. We were the ones who
Speaker 1: got the UH the invites in pretty early, and I
Speaker 1: had mine within the first week that it had launched.
Speaker 1: UH that came out of beta, and and for me
Speaker 1: that was a blast. It was like, oh, I get
Speaker 1: to play with all my friends. And then I realized, hey,
Speaker 1: you know what, this is not so great for anybody else.
Speaker 1: But but it has, you know, very slowly grown, and
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see if it will continue to grow.
Speaker 1: I know that there's a lot of I don't know
Speaker 1: if animosity is the right word, but um, dissatisfaction with
Speaker 1: certain Facebook users at the direction that Facebook has been taking.
Speaker 1: And it could give opportunity to to UH to a
Speaker 1: social network like Google Plus to really take advantage of that.
Speaker 1: Or we might even see and this will be a
Speaker 1: shock or if it happens, but we might even see
Speaker 1: something like my Space take advantage of that and become
Speaker 1: a player in that in that arena. Again. I would
Speaker 1: be interested to see that simply because I have written
Speaker 1: my Space off and they are clinging to life and actually,
Speaker 1: from what I've read, making some pretty reasonably decent improvements. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I haven't. I haven't checked it recently. I remember the
Speaker 1: last time I looked at definitely was a dramatic departure
Speaker 1: from the previous version of my Space, which was nothing
Speaker 1: but good because the old MySpace got way too cluttered
Speaker 1: and wait, everyone seemed to have an animated background image
Speaker 1: that was designed to make my eyes bleed, and they
Speaker 1: also had the music scientifically generated to make me want
Speaker 1: to punch people. So I'm glad that that has started
Speaker 1: to change some of the punching people part. I just
Speaker 1: kind of ingrained at this point. Uh, good times, good times.
Speaker 1: Oh we I predicted that Facebook would make a huge
Speaker 1: acquisition that would make people wonder what might be happening
Speaker 1: behind the scenes. Yeah, this is this is kind of common.
Speaker 1: This was kind of a a uh, well, if anybody's
Speaker 1: going to do this kind of thing, it would probably
Speaker 1: be Facebook cause they got a lot of money. So
Speaker 1: I predicted this was going to happen, and uh, it
Speaker 1: kind of didn't like if you could argue the Instagram
Speaker 1: was one of those except that made a lot of
Speaker 1: sense because Facebook was really struggling in the mobile platform,
Speaker 1: especially things with like mobile photos sharing and Instagram, was
Speaker 1: you know, really taking off there? But you know, I
Speaker 1: don't know, because the way you worded it in the
Speaker 1: Predictions episode was it sounded like it was going to
Speaker 1: be a company that would be so out of left
Speaker 1: field that make us all scratch our heads and say,
Speaker 1: why would Facebook even want that? So I put a
Speaker 1: question and mark by this instead of hit or missed,
Speaker 1: because I think I think you hit it more than
Speaker 1: you missed it. But it wasn't completely within the spirit
Speaker 1: of the prediction. Yeah, I think I think Twitter did
Speaker 1: that more, yeah, than than Facebook did this year because
Speaker 1: they they yeah, they had that sort of acquisition. But well,
Speaker 1: speaking of acquisitions, here's a big miss on my part.
Speaker 1: I predicted this was this is one. Even as I
Speaker 1: made the prediction, I said, I didn't really think it
Speaker 1: was going to happen, but I wanted to have some
Speaker 1: pretty crazy predictions in my list. I said that Google
Speaker 1: would purchase Twitter, and that did not happen. I have
Speaker 1: seen some people suggested that could still happen, like they
Speaker 1: could still see Google make a run of Twitter. I
Speaker 1: honestly think that that's that that ship is sailed. Twitter
Speaker 1: has kind of established itself at this point. I don't
Speaker 1: see it becoming a part of a larger corporation anytime
Speaker 1: really soon. Of course, that probably means that that's going
Speaker 1: to happen next week. But anyway, Uh yeah, I totally
Speaker 1: missed on that one, although again I was purposefully sticking
Speaker 1: my neck out. Yeah. Yeah, well, I mean it's fun
Speaker 1: to do those and see what what actually happens. Um,
Speaker 1: let's see, let's see. Uh oh, yeah, I said that
Speaker 1: we you would be a minor hit, which it kind
Speaker 1: of is. Yeah, it's you know, again minor hit that
Speaker 1: since you said minor that was that was a good call.
Speaker 1: It's been selling, but it hasn't been selling like the
Speaker 1: original we did. Yeah. Yeah, And you know, the reviews
Speaker 1: are kind of all over the place. You know. Some
Speaker 1: people absolutely love it and love the game pad. Other
Speaker 1: people find it very large and clunky, and and they
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think that it's a huge improvement over the
Speaker 1: previous generation, although it does support HD which the old
Speaker 1: one did not. But yeah, I mean it's no, it's
Speaker 1: I don't think it's the runaway success that Nintendo kind
Speaker 1: of needs, but at least it's not a total flop. Yeah, Um,
Speaker 1: you know, I had another I had another Nintendo one, uh,
Speaker 1: that Nintendo would cut the price of the three D
Speaker 1: S again. And I was basing that on the sales
Speaker 1: numbers because the three D S has had done something similar.
Speaker 1: They were selling, but they weren't selling like hotcakes. So
Speaker 1: I thought, well, they'll they'll cut the price before the
Speaker 1: end of the year. And I thought, especially around uh
Speaker 1: this time of year, we're recording this, right before the
Speaker 1: holidays here in the United States. I thought, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that's they're gonna have to. Actually, something else happened.
Speaker 1: They actually started selling more of them. Yeah, Nintendo had
Speaker 1: when they launched the three dsh It wasn't but a
Speaker 1: couple of months later that they cut the price pretty drastically.
Speaker 1: And uh, and that was a pretty big news story
Speaker 1: because it was it was a dramatic move on Nintendo's part.
Speaker 1: You know, they launched a new product and then to
Speaker 1: cut the price of that product within the same year
Speaker 1: of its launch was a big deal. But but yeah,
Speaker 1: you had said that it was probably gonna undergo yet
Speaker 1: another price cut. But as it turns out, I think Nintendo, Uh,
Speaker 1: the price cut they made was at a point that
Speaker 1: it no longer gave gamers pause um or or or
Speaker 1: or hoofs for that matter, to pick up a Nintendo
Speaker 1: three DS. And so they ended up the sales figures
Speaker 1: ended up spiking. They ended up getting a good lift
Speaker 1: from that, and in fact, the the the portable console
Speaker 1: became a bit of a success or, at least much
Speaker 1: more so than it had been at its original price.
Speaker 1: Um Plus more games came out for it too, so
Speaker 1: that kind of helped. So I'm gonna I have these
Speaker 1: numbered in my notes, but I'm gonna actually jump down
Speaker 1: a little bit because I have a Nintendo prediction too.
Speaker 1: I just got to make sure that I go back
Speaker 1: up when we're when we move off on this right,
Speaker 1: I said that Nintendo would begin to work on a smartphone,
Speaker 1: and as far as we know, that has not happened.
Speaker 1: So that that was one of those things where I
Speaker 1: just looked at the market that Nintendo is in, that
Speaker 1: casual gamer market, and that many casual gamers have turned
Speaker 1: to things like smartphones and tablets uh to be the
Speaker 1: source of their casual games. That's that's their go to
Speaker 1: device to play games on, which means that those devices
Speaker 1: are competing with Nintendo's products. So to me, it made
Speaker 1: a lot of sense for Nintendo to look into creating
Speaker 1: some sort of smartphone, either uh, partnering with another company
Speaker 1: and then just sort of having a co branded product
Speaker 1: or striking out on their own and trying to make
Speaker 1: a Nintendo smartphone from the ground up. That did not happen. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: let's a miss on my part. Uh, sad, it would
Speaker 1: have been interesting to see. Um, let's see oh uh
Speaker 1: Apple TV. We were we were talking last year about
Speaker 1: Apple TV UM, which is not the the little device
Speaker 1: um that you you plug into your TV. I was
Speaker 1: we were talking about an Apple television. Yeah, an actual
Speaker 1: TV running Apple software. Because some people were saying, any
Speaker 1: minute now, we're going to see the Apple TV. The
Speaker 1: same people are still saying that, Yes, you were one
Speaker 1: of them. Yeah, uh and uh and um. Yeah. This
Speaker 1: this happened with the iPad and a couple of the
Speaker 1: other products that we've seen with them, the iPhone. It's
Speaker 1: coming any day now. Yeah, it's still coming any day now.
Speaker 1: Although it looks as the end of twenty twelve that
Speaker 1: it really isn't just a rumor that they really are
Speaker 1: trying to perfect a television. Yeah, I don't know if
Speaker 1: it will be hit or not, but it looks like
Speaker 1: it will come out. I predicted that it would not
Speaker 1: be out by the end of twelve, and therefore it's
Speaker 1: a hit and I and I disagreed. I went ahead
Speaker 1: and said, you know what we're going to We're gonna
Speaker 1: have this be a hit or a miss one way
Speaker 1: or the other. I will go ahead and predict that
Speaker 1: Apple will come out with Apple TV before the end
Speaker 1: of two thousand twelve. So that was a miss for me. Um.
Speaker 1: But then that was again another one of those where
Speaker 1: it was like, I feel confident that one of these
Speaker 1: two outcomes will happen, so I will take the other side.
Speaker 1: Uh As for one of my official predictions, I said
Speaker 1: that Netflix would get its act together and that possibly
Speaker 1: Read Hastings might even leave the company, because you know,
Speaker 1: two thousand eleven was a rough year for Netflix. There
Speaker 1: were some some very public missteps made by the company.
Speaker 1: I mean the I don't think I've ever seen a
Speaker 1: CEO apologize to consumers as frequently as Read Hastings was
Speaker 1: appeared appeared to be doing in two thousand eleven. However,
Speaker 1: Read the hasting and read like like a Mr. Hastings
Speaker 1: did not leave the company. Yes, Uh, Hastings is still there.
Speaker 1: And but I would say, you know, at least Netflix
Speaker 1: hasn't made any other big mistakes like two thousand eleven,
Speaker 1: you know, seemed to have a rash of them. Two
Speaker 1: thousand twelve, there wasn't really as much of that, so
Speaker 1: I guess getting its act together, it's more or less true.
Speaker 1: And also Netflix did strike some high profile deals, although
Speaker 1: those deals are not going to come to fruition for
Speaker 1: a few years. Of the deal with Disney to run
Speaker 1: UH movies that the Disney features. Um, you know, Netflix
Speaker 1: struck that deal with Disney, and it was a that's
Speaker 1: a big deal, but it's something we're not going to
Speaker 1: actually get to enjoy for a few more years. Actually, Uh.
Speaker 1: They to be clear, they struck a couple of deals
Speaker 1: with Disney, and there is another deal with Disney that
Speaker 1: did go through UH to show older Disney content, but
Speaker 1: that's a separate as opposed to the stuff that's most
Speaker 1: recently been in theaters. That's that's the big deal that's
Speaker 1: not going to UH to take effect for another couple
Speaker 1: of years. So that is that is a different animal.
Speaker 1: Just just for clarifications, to um, let's see, let's see, Um,
Speaker 1: I have a new Google TV. Products will come out
Speaker 1: and no one will care. Wow, what a hit that was. Well,
Speaker 1: Google has the wherewithal to throw its weight behind products
Speaker 1: and Google TV uh while critically pretty well, critically acclaimed. Hey,
Speaker 1: this is a good product, let's see more of it. Actually,
Speaker 1: that's sort of what happened with Apple's product to Hey,
Speaker 1: this is really neat, but nobody's buying. I think it's
Speaker 1: I think it's not quite ready like they're there, and
Speaker 1: there's several features that are uh, they're not fully integrated
Speaker 1: with Google TV yet. And a lot of that is
Speaker 1: due to content creators resisting and so everything that the
Speaker 1: Google TV should be able to do, it cannot do.
Speaker 1: And that's more to do with business deals and and
Speaker 1: non existent deals like things that need to happen to
Speaker 1: have not happened. Uh. And so Google TV is a
Speaker 1: product that's not as good as it could be, as
Speaker 1: it as it was engineered to be. But but that's
Speaker 1: you know, it's not the fall of the technology. That's
Speaker 1: more of a business side thing. But it's still true.
Speaker 1: I call that a hit. Um. I mean, we saw
Speaker 1: Google at the Google Io event there was a lot
Speaker 1: about Google TV, and and still it is not really
Speaker 1: uh launched to any any kind of of real success
Speaker 1: in the marketplace. Yeah. Well, part of the reason is
Speaker 1: that the initial launch partner, I mean, there was a
Speaker 1: big um content or not content. There's a big hardware
Speaker 1: deal with Logitech that they were going to partner and
Speaker 1: apparently most people liked it that had tried it, but
Speaker 1: you know those fifteen people I'm teasing. Uh, The thing
Speaker 1: is that it was an expensive product. It was i
Speaker 1: I think when it first launched, and they ended up
Speaker 1: dropping it um inn to um and they had, you know,
Speaker 1: some pretty stiff competition from people like roku um. So
Speaker 1: you know, they they you know, ended up shelving that.
Speaker 1: Logitech said nope, we're done, We're out. Uh, And I
Speaker 1: figured somebody else will will launt in on this because
Speaker 1: you know, you've got Android, you've got the h the
Speaker 1: possibility of apps moving over. And it uh still didn't
Speaker 1: the beat the devils that they have made this year
Speaker 1: have not sold like you know one might expect. Google
Speaker 1: Fiber might help that that whole process. I mean the
Speaker 1: fact that the fiber hoods well Yeah, and then you
Speaker 1: you know, as part of your deal of getting depending
Speaker 1: on what tear you subscribe to for a Google Fiber,
Speaker 1: if you happen to be in in one of the
Speaker 1: two Kansas cities in the United States, uh, you get
Speaker 1: things like a next to seven tablet that can act
Speaker 1: as a controller. So you're starting to get some of
Speaker 1: that Google TV functionality there in the Google Fiber service.
Speaker 1: And that might even be enough to start getting kind
Speaker 1: of a word of mouth campaign going and and maybe
Speaker 1: we'll see an improvement in the next year. But but
Speaker 1: two thousand twelve is not Google TVs year. So that
Speaker 1: was a hit for you. I said that at E
Speaker 1: three we would see at least get a sneak peak
Speaker 1: of the next generation consoles from Sony and Microsoft, and
Speaker 1: that was a miss. We did not see that. However,
Speaker 1: we'd have seen, uh some leaked reports about what those
Speaker 1: next consoles might be with the PS four or orbists
Speaker 1: and the Xbox seven twenty or code named Durango. Uh,
Speaker 1: what those specs might be for those those consoles and
Speaker 1: what features they might support. But we did not see
Speaker 1: anything at E three. It will absolutely stocked me if
Speaker 1: we don't see anything into the yeah yeah, sigence signs
Speaker 1: suggests that you will start to see something come out
Speaker 1: despite rumors that that all of them want to just
Speaker 1: get out of the console business entirely. That would shock
Speaker 1: me about Microsoft, mostly because the Xbox division for Microsoft
Speaker 1: has historically performed really really well. And uh, and I
Speaker 1: think Microsoft kind of should hold onto that. But then
Speaker 1: I also want, you know, predictions to come true. So anyway,
Speaker 1: your next one, yes, Apple, uh new iPhone will have
Speaker 1: uh a near field communication Yes, And I said, no,
Speaker 1: it's not going to and that that was a hit.
Speaker 1: That was a hit. Yeah. No, No, n f C
Speaker 1: in the in the latest iPhone, which that's what you predicted.
Speaker 1: And you know what, you gave some very intelligent reasons
Speaker 1: why you thought it wasn't gonna happen, And those are
Speaker 1: exactly the reasons why Apple sites you know, they're not
Speaker 1: pursuing NFC technology at the moment. So well done. Um,
Speaker 1: which is it's going to be interesting going forward because
Speaker 1: Google has included NFC technology and tablet devices not just phones. Google, Yes, Google,
Speaker 1: Google is betting on its wallet technology going forward. UM.
Speaker 1: I have never used it. The square, the square folks, um,
Speaker 1: the mobile payment folks. They're not actually square like they
Speaker 1: came out from Minecraft, and they won't the drapes and
Speaker 1: the squares baby, but yeah, I mean the mobile payment
Speaker 1: technology is coming up, so it will be you know,
Speaker 1: it's becoming more and more popular. So let's I don't
Speaker 1: know if if Apple will do it this next year,
Speaker 1: if when if, assuming it will release a new iPhone,
Speaker 1: it might. It was the same sort of thing with
Speaker 1: you know, supporting lt and stuff like that, right, Apple
Speaker 1: prefers for technologies to be somewhat mature before they start
Speaker 1: to incorporate them into their products. So uh, I think
Speaker 1: it's at least another year for that, just because I
Speaker 1: don't think NFC is near the maturity level that Apple
Speaker 1: would feel comfortable including it. You know, I could be surprised.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not not soul either way. Us continuing
Speaker 1: the theme of things that Apple products will not have,
Speaker 1: I said that the this was a thing at the time.
Speaker 1: At the end of two thousand eleven, one of the
Speaker 1: rumors about the next iPad was that it would it
Speaker 1: could have a three D screen built in screen that
Speaker 1: would allow you to view things in three D, kind
Speaker 1: of like the Nintendo three D S And I said,
Speaker 1: ain't no way, that's gonna happen, because it doesn't really
Speaker 1: make sense for a touch screen device to have this
Speaker 1: three D capability built into it because you you interact
Speaker 1: with it in a two D interface, So why would
Speaker 1: you have a three D view? And that was a hit.
Speaker 1: It's kind of no brainer as far as I was concerned.
Speaker 1: Although there were a lot of people who were saying
Speaker 1: that was going to happen. Now, I wish I had
Speaker 1: predicted that Apple was going to launch two updates to
Speaker 1: the iPad in a single year, because no, what was
Speaker 1: saying that and that's what happened. Yeah, Norton, Nor did
Speaker 1: we mention the iPad mini. Um, let's see, let's see. Oh,
Speaker 1: but but we did talk about web os on that podcast. Uh.
Speaker 1: I was thinking that, you know, once HP acquired Palm,
Speaker 1: that it was going to get into the uh the
Speaker 1: web os business. Um, not yet. You gave me a
Speaker 1: question mark in this Jonathan put Together went back because
Speaker 1: I don't have the patience to listen, and I went
Speaker 1: back and listened to last year's predictions, and he gave
Speaker 1: me a question mark here I would give me a miss. Well,
Speaker 1: the reason because they're not gonna do it. Uh. It
Speaker 1: looks like I've said, I've read reports that they are
Speaker 1: thinking about some things that they'd like to do with it,
Speaker 1: but I don't think they're going to do it by
Speaker 1: the end of the year. The reason I put a
Speaker 1: question mark was just because the fact that they did
Speaker 1: make it open source and open it up to people,
Speaker 1: but that was kind of happening at the end of
Speaker 1: two thousand eleven anyway. So I put a question mark
Speaker 1: there because you could argue that by making it open source,
Speaker 1: that is something useful. That was essentially that you your
Speaker 1: prediction was that HP HP would do something that was
Speaker 1: useful with webbos. Uh. So that's why the question mark
Speaker 1: is there. I think it's more of a miss than
Speaker 1: a hit, too, But you know I was I think
Speaker 1: I was thinking, it's hard to see. Uh yeah, it's
Speaker 1: been a year, But I think I was thinking that
Speaker 1: that HP itself would come out with a product and
Speaker 1: that did not happen. That did not happen. So my
Speaker 1: here's another miss for me. Although I think it was
Speaker 1: a good guess, it just didn't happen, which was that
Speaker 1: at least one of the big daily deal sites would
Speaker 1: go under, and so things like living Social or group
Speaker 1: on these coupon sites, because there's been a lot of
Speaker 1: news about how these sites have uh shown to not
Speaker 1: be profitable. They're they're struggling with revenue that um that
Speaker 1: it's it's kind of a losing proposition as far as
Speaker 1: these companies are set up right now. Maybe there is
Speaker 1: a way of doing this that isn't a revenue loss.
Speaker 1: But at the moment, there's some big news stories about
Speaker 1: layoffs at these various companies or executive shuffles at some
Speaker 1: of these companies, but none of them, to my knowledge
Speaker 1: as of the recording of this podcast, have officially gone under.
Speaker 1: So that is a miss yep, yep. Although you could
Speaker 1: probably make that prediction again for next year, I probably
Speaker 1: can just write that down. Um, I've predicted that Canonical
Speaker 1: would ditch Unity as its interface for Ubuntu because people
Speaker 1: were complaining about it. Yes, and they are still complaining
Speaker 1: about it because I'm still there. But of course one
Speaker 1: of the things that I'm neglected to think about. By
Speaker 1: the way, if you're clueless as to what I'm talking about,
Speaker 1: Aubuntu is a a version of Linux, often called a
Speaker 1: flavor of Linux, which is an operating system which is
Speaker 1: an operating system that is not Windows or Macintosh or
Speaker 1: many other systems. But you know, UM, if you don't
Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about, you probably would consider Windows
Speaker 1: and mac os to be the too big and you'd
Speaker 1: be right. Um, but uh, one two is a very
Speaker 1: popular version of Lennox. Uh, and it irritated a couple
Speaker 1: of people, A couple of people, many people. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: it's getting close to lunch time in my blood suggars
Speaker 1: two people, two people and some people like uh the
Speaker 1: Unity interface, UM, but many people do not. It's been
Speaker 1: They've been pretty vocal, and uh, you know, I thought, well,
Speaker 1: maybe Canonical, which is the organization that that releases one
Speaker 1: two and other versions that are similar. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I thought maybe that that pressure would would get them
Speaker 1: to discontinue it. I didn't count on the simplicity with
Speaker 1: which you can switch interfaces, which I had experienced. But
Speaker 1: I was thinking, oh no, no, no, people are just
Speaker 1: gonna get them to beg off and leave well enough alone.
Speaker 1: They didn't, and you can. It's easy if you installed
Speaker 1: one to to put another interface on top of it
Speaker 1: that isn't Unity like Gnome or you know, Katie, So
Speaker 1: people just do that. My next prediction, Uh, it's a
Speaker 1: it was kind of a hit. I mean, this is
Speaker 1: a debatable hit. I should have put a question mark
Speaker 1: next to this one, really, which was Microsoft Windows Tablets
Speaker 1: will debut to modest results. And I guess, I guess
Speaker 1: Moss results is a fair way of saying it. I
Speaker 1: you know, from the sales figures I've seen, it certainly
Speaker 1: isn't a runaway success. Um. But you know, there they
Speaker 1: have sold some. It's not a total flop either, So
Speaker 1: I guess Moss results is fair enough. But I think
Speaker 1: it's too early to call. Yeah, but it's definitely it's
Speaker 1: definitely not a runaway hit, which is kind of what
Speaker 1: I was going for, was that the Windows tablets would
Speaker 1: come out. It's not that no one would care, it's
Speaker 1: just that they wouldn't become like a uh, you know,
Speaker 1: they wouldn't just fly off the shelves. Now that being said,
Speaker 1: you know, I personally think the Windows A Tablet interface
Speaker 1: is pretty interesting and um, and I still am curious
Speaker 1: about getting my hands on on a full the professional surface. Um.
Speaker 1: The Windows are T version I'm not as interested in
Speaker 1: because again I'm not I'm not a great tablet person.
Speaker 1: I own a tablet, and I barely use it. And
Speaker 1: it's an Android tablet, um, but I barely use it.
Speaker 1: So even though it's an operating system, I love with Android,
Speaker 1: and it's and it's you know, the next of seven,
Speaker 1: so it's got the latest version of Android on it.
Speaker 1: I still use it that frequently, which to me just
Speaker 1: tells me that I'm not a tablet person. But still
Speaker 1: I kind of want to get my hands on one
Speaker 1: of the professional Windows eight tablets service tablets. Yeah, anyway,
Speaker 1: so that was my my next one. Well, speaking of
Speaker 1: Android based tablets, I predicted that the Kindle Fire would
Speaker 1: be a hit. It is, in fact, well it was
Speaker 1: sort of a gimme uh. In fact, um, it's such
Speaker 1: a hit that Amazon has released more than one Kindle
Speaker 1: Fire and updated it so you know, now they have
Speaker 1: the HD, they have a competitive larger sized tablet. Um.
Speaker 1: So I I don't know, oh that now that the
Speaker 1: the Nexus seven and Nexus Tender out, Um, I don't
Speaker 1: think that the Kindle Fire is running away as fast
Speaker 1: as it was, but it is still it's got legs,
Speaker 1: it knows how to use them, and it's so so
Speaker 1: tightly integrated with Amazon's you know, uh catalog and and
Speaker 1: and systems that anyone who really uses Amazon a lot,
Speaker 1: it has a huge appeal to it. It's just like
Speaker 1: for me again, the Android tablet has a big appeal
Speaker 1: because so much of my stuff is in the Google
Speaker 1: infrastructure already, like Google Cloud stuff and you know, Google
Speaker 1: Docs and Gmail and all that kind of thing. Uh,
Speaker 1: that it just made sense for me to go with
Speaker 1: Android because it was already so tightly integrated. Same sort
Speaker 1: of thing with Amazon. I mean, if you do a
Speaker 1: lot of shopping on Amazon, or you get a lot
Speaker 1: of your music from Amazon, it makes sense because it's
Speaker 1: just it's designed to work with that system. So it's
Speaker 1: the best. I would say it's the best interface for
Speaker 1: those systems, hands down. It's not that no, the Android
Speaker 1: or iOS versions of that are are bad. They're just
Speaker 1: not designed from the ground up to work with them,
Speaker 1: so it's a little different. My next one, this was
Speaker 1: another big one that I was kind of sticking my
Speaker 1: neck out on, but I actually felt pretty good about it.
Speaker 1: It turned out to be a miss, so it shows
Speaker 1: what I know. But I said it was gonna be
Speaker 1: the swan song for the CD that CDs were essentially
Speaker 1: going to be phased out, and we wouldn't really see
Speaker 1: them in things like retail establishments or being sold online
Speaker 1: as much anymore. Uh. That really the move would be
Speaker 1: to really focus on digital delivery, and that just hasn't
Speaker 1: quite happened yet. I still think it's I mean, the
Speaker 1: day is coming, it's just not here. It didn't happen
Speaker 1: this year, it didn't happen in two thousand twelve. So
Speaker 1: that's a miss. Yep, yep, um, let's see, Apple will
Speaker 1: not lower I've had prices. Uh. That was also a
Speaker 1: semi guinea. It was a hit they have in in
Speaker 1: if you're speaking literally, because they released a new i
Speaker 1: pet oh wait, two new iPad lines, keeping the new
Speaker 1: iPad and the new new iPad, keeping the series more
Speaker 1: or less intactics. Honestly, you can't buy the new iPad anymore,
Speaker 1: buy an iPad two, but not the new iPad. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that that was the interesting part, now that that actually
Speaker 1: was true when they released the iPad three, if we're talking,
Speaker 1: let's just stop. Um. They they kept the iPad two
Speaker 1: on because it was still fairly recent and it was
Speaker 1: it offered them another price point at lower price point
Speaker 1: at which they could offer the iPad. So so technically
Speaker 1: the price dropped, but if you want to talk about
Speaker 1: what is the latest version of that product on the
Speaker 1: market at the time, the price stayed steady. Yeah. So
Speaker 1: so previous versions of the iPad the price would drop
Speaker 1: if they remained available in the Apple Store, but the
Speaker 1: current version of whatever that product was was still the
Speaker 1: same price. So that's why this is a hit. What
Speaker 1: you know, we might have people right and say, well,
Speaker 1: you know, the Apple two is cheaper now, like, yeah, us,
Speaker 1: but we're talking about if you were to go in
Speaker 1: and buy the latest version of that. They never despite
Speaker 1: the pressures of things like Android tablets and even the
Speaker 1: Windows tablets coming out, that they did not uh you know,
Speaker 1: bow to those pressures and change the price point for
Speaker 1: the entry level iPad. Did you say the Apple too?
Speaker 1: Did I the iPad? The iPad? Whatever? Last night, I
Speaker 1: was just I was just picking. No, No, that's good,
Speaker 1: all right. Well, um, this is my last prediction until
Speaker 1: the very very last prediction of the show. So Chris
Speaker 1: is actually gonna have a couple back to back. But
Speaker 1: here's here's mine. Um. I said that tech will play
Speaker 1: the largest role ever in election history, which was such
Speaker 1: a GIMMEI that it was pathetic and it was a hit.
Speaker 1: We saw technology play a huge role, particularly social media,
Speaker 1: which again not a big surprise. We had started to
Speaker 1: see that in the previous election that I'm talking about
Speaker 1: the United States elections, although technically elections around the world
Speaker 1: really saw a lot of involvement in technolo pology, and
Speaker 1: sometimes regime changes that didn't have anything to do with
Speaker 1: elections saw a lot to do with technology. So so
Speaker 1: technology and politics continue to be a big deal, and
Speaker 1: we see tighter and tighter integration. We're seeing we're starting
Speaker 1: to see generations of politicians who grew up using at
Speaker 1: least some form of technology. You know, if you go
Speaker 1: back just a couple of years, a few years, not
Speaker 1: even that many. A lot of the politicians were an
Speaker 1: age where they they didn't have things like computers and
Speaker 1: smartphones and and things at their back and call when
Speaker 1: they were uh, when they were young enough for that
Speaker 1: to be a formative part of their their experience, right,
Speaker 1: it wasn't something that they were you know, they might
Speaker 1: become familiar with it, but it was after those years
Speaker 1: and so uh, they weren't necessarily as comfortable with it.
Speaker 1: In many cases now something they are definitely exceptions to
Speaker 1: this rule, but in general they were not as a
Speaker 1: as as a savvy. But that's starting to change now,
Speaker 1: and I think it will be really interesting to see
Speaker 1: in the next few years when we start seeing people
Speaker 1: who have grown up in the digital age taking positions
Speaker 1: of power and politics. How that's going to unfold for
Speaker 1: technology in general. That would be really interesting to see. Yeah. Um,
Speaker 1: so let's see Windows eight will debut to lackluster adoption.
Speaker 1: That was a hit, particularly in the enterprise. In fact,
Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of of people say that they
Speaker 1: think enterprises are are going to pull the same thing
Speaker 1: they did with Vista and skip Windows eight at least
Speaker 1: for the short term, uh, and stick with either XP
Speaker 1: or Windows seven. Yeah. And if I'm if I'm not mistaken,
Speaker 1: what I was thinking then was not that Windows eight
Speaker 1: was going to stink, which I don't get the impression
Speaker 1: that it stinks other than the fact that the interface,
Speaker 1: uh is different enough that it throws some people. I
Speaker 1: don't think that's a stink. I think that's more of
Speaker 1: a wait, yeah, it's so radically but wait, there's a
Speaker 1: there's a there's a steep learning curve at first, but
Speaker 1: then it levels off pretty quickly once once you get
Speaker 1: the tricks down, it's it's pretty easy to navigate. But
Speaker 1: it is so radically different from previous versions of Windows
Speaker 1: that that can be a turn off for someone. You know,
Speaker 1: like you turn on your computer and you immediately don't
Speaker 1: know where anything is because it looks so different from
Speaker 1: everything else you've ever used. That that can that can
Speaker 1: definitely give people pause to adoption. Yeah, and what I
Speaker 1: what I was really thinking was that the the the
Speaker 1: cost and the effort for for companies was gonna be
Speaker 1: so great that they it wasn't just gonna fly off shelves. Um.
Speaker 1: And then I figured that uh Diabolo three was coming
Speaker 1: because we had heard that it was going to and
Speaker 1: I figured it would be a massive hit. And again
Speaker 1: this is a gimme because it's a Blizzard title that
Speaker 1: everybody had been anticipating for a very long time. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so it was a really big hit, although it was
Speaker 1: the kind of hit that you know, didn't it wasn't
Speaker 1: really sticky, you know, No, it stick right right after
Speaker 1: like initially after the release. There was a huge amount
Speaker 1: of excitement. There were also problems, I mean, there were
Speaker 1: some server issues that people had. There was some uh
Speaker 1: digital rights management issues that people had. Uh. So there were,
Speaker 1: you know, there were some legitimate problems with the game,
Speaker 1: or at least with the way the public accepted the game.
Speaker 1: But but the really interesting thing to me was that
Speaker 1: within a couple of months, no one was no one
Speaker 1: I knew anyway. And these were gamers who were really
Speaker 1: excited about Diabow three when it first came out. No
Speaker 1: one was talking about that game anymore, whereas some of
Speaker 1: the games that I play right now came out early
Speaker 1: in two thousand twelve, and I still have friends who
Speaker 1: chat about those games quite a bit. So, uh, it
Speaker 1: just didn't have that that stickiness. All right. So here
Speaker 1: is my final prediction. We have gotten down to the
Speaker 1: end of the show, and this is a big one, folks.
Speaker 1: So my prediction was that Chris and I would be
Speaker 1: making a prediction show for two thousand thirteen around the
Speaker 1: same time of the year as we were doing the
Speaker 1: Prediction Show for two thousand twelve. Way that should have
Speaker 1: been a gimme. Should have been a gimme, should have
Speaker 1: been a gimme hit. Uh, it's a miss. And the
Speaker 1: reason for that is that we must announce that Chris
Speaker 1: is leaving Tech Stuff. Yes, uh, he has one more
Speaker 1: episode to go, so it's not he's not gone yet,
Speaker 1: but we have one more episode we're going to do
Speaker 1: and it's an episode that that Chris has picked the
Speaker 1: topic for specifically because it was something that he really
Speaker 1: wanted to talk about. And uh, I expect that episode
Speaker 1: will be amazing. But yes, uh that is a miss
Speaker 1: because uh the tex Stuff is going to be a
Speaker 1: different show. Yeah. Mostly I just wanted to throw Jonathan's
Speaker 1: predictions off. Yeah, you wanted to get more hits than
Speaker 1: misses and have me have more or less an even number.
Speaker 1: And uh, boy, that that was a heck of a
Speaker 1: way of doing it. I guess it was either that.
Speaker 1: It was It was either that or to somehow get
Speaker 1: all politicians to stop using technology so that one. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I figured this one would be the easier one.
Speaker 1: Now it's just one of those things where uh, um,
Speaker 1: tech Stuff is going to go through some changes, and
Speaker 1: I figured this was sort of a good time. I
Speaker 1: have other stuff that I've been working on that's not
Speaker 1: podcast or blog related, and I thought, you know, maybe
Speaker 1: the time is uh has come for me to to
Speaker 1: leave the show. So um uh the I I predict.
Speaker 1: I don't have predictions for next year, but I predict
Speaker 1: the next episode will be a very special episode of
Speaker 1: text Stuff. So guys, if if you want to let
Speaker 1: us know what you think about our how we did
Speaker 1: on our predictions. If you have any predictions for two
Speaker 1: thousand thirteen, do you have any messages you would like
Speaker 1: to send Chris, you should definitely contact us. No profanity, please, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: Let's let's keep these professional people. You can, you can,
Speaker 1: you can shed some tears if you want. You wouldn't
Speaker 1: be the only one, um, But yeah, send us a message.
Speaker 1: Our email is tex Stuff at Discovery dot com or
Speaker 1: find us on Twitter or Facebook are handle there is
Speaker 1: text stuff HS the you and Chris and I will
Speaker 1: talk to you again one last time with both of
Speaker 1: us really soon. For more on this and thousands of
Speaker 1: other topics. Is it how staff works dot com