WEBVTT - Grading TechStuff’s 2012 Predictions 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:05.400 Get in touch with technology with tech Stuff from how 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:10.440 stuff What's dot Com? Hello again, everyone, and welcome to 0:00:10.480 --> 0:00:12.360 tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette and I'm an 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:14.960 editor at how Stuff works dot com. Sitting across from 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:20.400 me as usual as senior writer Jonathan Strickland. Hey there, Hey, Chris. Yeah, Jonathan. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.319 Do you remember back at the the late days of 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.680 two thousand eleven when you and I sat down and 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:28.440 we made some sweeping predictions about what would happen in 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:32.560 the world of technology for two thousand twelve. Well, which 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.800 is which is good? Why you reminded me of these things? 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:38.720 Luckily I took notes? Um. Yeah, So we made predictions, 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:40.879 and of course every year when we make predictions, we 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:45.479 hold ourselves accountable by taking our predictions and looking and 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.040 seeing how we did. So let's, um, let's take a 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.480 look at some of these. Uh, should I go first? 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:52.040 Do you want to go first? Oh? Why don't you 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.200 give it a shot? All right? So my first prediction 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:57.720 was that economic uncertainty would cause companies to fail or 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:00.320 get acquired or to scale back, which was such a 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:02.640 gimme at the end of two thousand eleven that it's 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.720 almost embarrassing to call that a hit, but I am 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:08.399 telling it as a hit. That was um. I mean 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:11.360 we saw that happen. We saw lots of companies start 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:14.039 to cut back. I mean we had everything from the 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:18.000 uh Yahoo CEO at the time, Scott Thompson talking about 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:20.720 how he was going to have to cut back on 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:25.200 a few thousand jobs at Yahoo or all the way 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:29.080 up to Zinga laying off employees. And I mean we've 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:32.399 seen a lot of that throughout the tech sector. And 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:34.480 again it's not a huge surprise. Now, of course, there 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:37.160 have been some successes in technology, there's been some companies 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:39.600 have done very well in two thousand twelve. But I 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:41.840 think I think it's safe for me to call that 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.920 one a hit, all right, So I suppose I should 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:48.560 give my my first one and go here. Um. Yes, 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:52.840 I predicted that Yahoo would be purchased by another company, 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:58.360 possibly the Chinese search giant Ali Baba. Yeah, that would 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:02.400 be a myth. Well, I also predicted the same thing. 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:04.560 That was one of my predictions as well. I said 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:06.960 that they would either be acquired or break up into 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.240 separate companies, and the separate companies would be acquired. So 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:12.919 that is also a miss. We both at the time 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:16.959 thought Yahoo was kind of kind of really struggling. I 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.600 mean it really was struggling. And that's that was before 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:21.880 Scott Thompson came on. And of course Scott Thompson didn't 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:23.920 last that long. So for a while it looked like 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.920 that prediction might come true. And then they brought on 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:31.679 Marissa Meyer and uh, and that kind of gave Yahoo 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:36.160 a bit of a boost in the eye of public opinion. Yeah, 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:40.560 that's at the end of UM that had that those moves, 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.320 especially the the um. They've also struck some content deals 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.960 and things, um, and some high profile people have come 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:51.440 on to the board of directors. Um. But these things 0:02:51.440 --> 0:02:53.840 are starting to make people think that Yahoo may have 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:58.400 some life in it yet. UM. And in fact, Meyer, Um, 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:00.840 well she inspired our our Women of Tech podcast, so 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.480 we did a little while ago. Um. She Uh, she 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:06.639 has made some some pretty substantial changes even in the 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:09.400 short time she's been there so far. So people are 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:12.040 starting to think there there might be a future for y'all. 0:03:12.040 --> 0:03:16.160 Who after all, yeah, and uh, do you want me 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.919 to go again? Are you? Because that was yell who 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:23.040 was both of us. Yeah, I predicted that the the 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:26.960 famed A T and T and T Mobile deal would 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:32.119 fail miserably. And boy were you right? Well yes, despite despite, 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.600 well I was, I was really looking at the uh 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.800 indicators there and I felt like that was a pretty 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:40.240 sure deal that it was gonna the deal was off. 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:44.160 That was strange. Um but uh but yeah, I mean 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:46.400 government regulators felt like it was going to be in 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:48.840 the United States here, um, where the merger was supposed 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:53.200 to take place. Um, felt like it just wasn't going 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:55.480 to help competition after all. No matter what a T 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:58.880 and T was saying, now, T Mobile didn't and managed 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:00.960 to uh the thing. As you know, t Bone will 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:03.760 as the fourth largest carrier in the United States. I mean, 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:07.120 Deutsche Telecom has a pretty substantial share over in in Europe, 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.400 but in the United States they are their fourth largest. 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.400 People were saying, hey, they can't keep this up, especially 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.360 since they don't have the iPhone. They didn't manage to 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:18.680 to do some pretty big things this year. They divested 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:23.040 themselves of their towers, the actual infrastructure for their network. 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:27.640 Um and uh. They did a couple other small things 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.520 like um, oh, yeah, they decided they would merge with 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.760 Metro PCs, which is I don't know that the fifth 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.320 largest carrier they're they're one of the players that is 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:41.279 behind the top four and not terribly far one of 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:46.080 the largest small carriers UM. And by merging that infrastructure, 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:49.880 which looks like it might happen UM, it looks like 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:52.000 they might be able to to build out the network 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.120 take it to lte UM. And they've even struck a 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:59.240 deal with Apple to bring on Apple products, including apparently 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:02.839 the next version the iPhone later on, which they would 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:06.240 not have been able to do as efficiently on their own. 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:10.160 So big deals happening, but not with a T and T, 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:15.040 so total hit for you. I said that REM would 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.760 experience a change in executives at the topmost layer. Uh, 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:20.680 and this was you know again, it was I think 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.400 it was either late November or early December when we 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:27.600 made these predictions, because we we do record ahead of time. Well, Uh, 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:30.320 we learned early on in these prediction episodes that if 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:32.720 we didn't make these predictions by what we saw at 0:05:32.720 --> 0:05:34.880 the very end of the year, there may be a 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.640 very good chance that we would be completely off. Yeah, 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.440 but it turned out January two, thou twelve, that's is 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:43.279 exactly what happened. REM. The the co C e O 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:47.080 S resigned there's a new CEO at REM, and uh, 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.520 you know, this again was sort of a gimme because 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:53.039 REM was really struggling as well, having having a real 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:57.880 rough time with the uh the the the added pressures 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.840 of iPhone and Android and even you know a new 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:04.320 players like Windows Phone eight coming onto the smartphone scene. 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:08.320 RIM was really struggling, and uh, there were there was 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:11.640 a lot of pressure from from shareholders for some big 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.479 changes to happen, and failures like the playbook didn't help, 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:17.920 and that all kind of contributed to it. And so 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:20.560 now we've seen a changeover at RIM. So I count 0:06:20.600 --> 0:06:24.600 as a hit, yep, yep. And uh I predicted that 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.560 Facebook would have an I p O. UM that was 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.800 a hit, although uh, you know again that was a 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:34.120 semi gime gimme because they were sort of required to. 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.040 But the science had been pointing. I didn't actually know 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:39.960 that at the time that we predicted this UM, and 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:43.320 it looked like everything was pointing that way that they 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:44.800 were they were getting to the point where they were 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:46.400 going to try to raise money with their I p O. 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:50.640 Of course, uh that hasn't been a huge success for them, 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:54.840 but may still pan out in the end. Of course, yeah. 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:58.080 I predicted that Facebook would hit one billion users before 0:06:58.080 --> 0:06:59.840 the end of two thousand twelve, which was a hit. 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.480 And you know, based upon the number of users that 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.320 Facebook had at the end of two thousand eleven and 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:09.680 the traditional growth trend for Facebook, that was a pretty 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:11.960 safe bet to make and it turned out to pay off. 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:17.080 So there we go. Facebook has over one billion users. Uh, 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:21.720 that's a lot of people. That's that's amazing to think about. Technically, 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.280 I guess I should say one billion active accounts because 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.040 some of those accounts may in fact be held by 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:35.440 you know, a single individual. Yeah, yeah, like of them. Um, 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:37.800 it's hard to keep track of all those Oh, speaking 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:43.160 of speaking of social networking, Um, I predicted that Google 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.520 Plus would not fold. People were saying last year. I 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:50.160 remember people saying, look Google Plus. At first it was 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:54.560 a Facebook killer, and then it wasn't. Oh look at this, 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:57.840 this is terrible people, it's just Google blew it again 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.720 on social networking. But I said, no, it's to stick around, 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:05.080 and I think it will slowly grow, and it slowly has. Yeah, 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:08.120 it's not been dramatic, but that's exactly what you predicted. 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:10.840 And I remember the early days of Google Plus it 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:13.440 felt like it was a playground for all the tech 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:18.320 journalists and tech industry folks, because that's all the people 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:20.320 I saw on Google Plus. We were the ones who 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.120 got the UH the invites in pretty early, and I 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:26.320 had mine within the first week that it had launched. 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:30.640 UH that came out of beta, and and for me 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:32.400 that was a blast. It was like, oh, I get 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:34.720 to play with all my friends. And then I realized, hey, 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:37.080 you know what, this is not so great for anybody else. 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.040 But but it has, you know, very slowly grown, and 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.040 it'll be interesting to see if it will continue to grow. 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.640 I know that there's a lot of I don't know 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:49.200 if animosity is the right word, but um, dissatisfaction with 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:53.000 certain Facebook users at the direction that Facebook has been taking. 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:56.560 And it could give opportunity to to UH to a 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.840 social network like Google Plus to really take advantage of that. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:03.120 Or we might even see and this will be a 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:05.000 shock or if it happens, but we might even see 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:07.880 something like my Space take advantage of that and become 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:10.800 a player in that in that arena. Again. I would 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:14.480 be interested to see that simply because I have written 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:20.079 my Space off and they are clinging to life and actually, 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:25.040 from what I've read, making some pretty reasonably decent improvements. Yeah, 0:09:25.040 --> 0:09:28.960 I haven't. I haven't checked it recently. I remember the 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:32.199 last time I looked at definitely was a dramatic departure 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:36.480 from the previous version of my Space, which was nothing 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:42.079 but good because the old MySpace got way too cluttered 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:47.480 and wait, everyone seemed to have an animated background image 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.959 that was designed to make my eyes bleed, and they 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:56.480 also had the music scientifically generated to make me want 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:59.600 to punch people. So I'm glad that that has started 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.560 to change some of the punching people part. I just 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:08.559 kind of ingrained at this point. Uh, good times, good times. 0:10:08.559 --> 0:10:12.600 Oh we I predicted that Facebook would make a huge 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:16.439 acquisition that would make people wonder what might be happening 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:19.319 behind the scenes. Yeah, this is this is kind of common. 0:10:19.400 --> 0:10:22.520 This was kind of a a uh, well, if anybody's 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:24.160 going to do this kind of thing, it would probably 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:25.720 be Facebook cause they got a lot of money. So 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:28.599 I predicted this was going to happen, and uh, it 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:31.960 kind of didn't like if you could argue the Instagram 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.080 was one of those except that made a lot of 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.920 sense because Facebook was really struggling in the mobile platform, 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:42.000 especially things with like mobile photos sharing and Instagram, was 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:46.640 you know, really taking off there? But you know, I 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.400 don't know, because the way you worded it in the 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:51.439 Predictions episode was it sounded like it was going to 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.600 be a company that would be so out of left 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:56.440 field that make us all scratch our heads and say, 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.559 why would Facebook even want that? So I put a 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:02.000 question and mark by this instead of hit or missed, 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.040 because I think I think you hit it more than 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:08.480 you missed it. But it wasn't completely within the spirit 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:10.920 of the prediction. Yeah, I think I think Twitter did 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:15.080 that more, yeah, than than Facebook did this year because 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:19.800 they they yeah, they had that sort of acquisition. But well, 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:23.120 speaking of acquisitions, here's a big miss on my part. 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.560 I predicted this was this is one. Even as I 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:27.200 made the prediction, I said, I didn't really think it 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:28.600 was going to happen, but I wanted to have some 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.520 pretty crazy predictions in my list. I said that Google 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.600 would purchase Twitter, and that did not happen. I have 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:37.480 seen some people suggested that could still happen, like they 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:39.360 could still see Google make a run of Twitter. I 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:42.720 honestly think that that's that that ship is sailed. Twitter 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.200 has kind of established itself at this point. I don't 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:49.600 see it becoming a part of a larger corporation anytime 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:51.440 really soon. Of course, that probably means that that's going 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:55.199 to happen next week. But anyway, Uh yeah, I totally 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:59.000 missed on that one, although again I was purposefully sticking 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:02.080 my neck out. Yeah. Yeah, well, I mean it's fun 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.760 to do those and see what what actually happens. Um, 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:11.679 let's see, let's see. Uh oh, yeah, I said that 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:15.040 we you would be a minor hit, which it kind 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.880 of is. Yeah, it's you know, again minor hit that 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.920 since you said minor that was that was a good call. 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:23.520 It's been selling, but it hasn't been selling like the 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.520 original we did. Yeah. Yeah, And you know, the reviews 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:29.679 are kind of all over the place. You know. Some 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:33.320 people absolutely love it and love the game pad. Other 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.400 people find it very large and clunky, and and they 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:40.400 don't necessarily think that it's a huge improvement over the 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.440 previous generation, although it does support HD which the old 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:47.360 one did not. But yeah, I mean it's no, it's 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:51.480 I don't think it's the runaway success that Nintendo kind 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:56.840 of needs, but at least it's not a total flop. Yeah, Um, 0:12:57.040 --> 0:13:00.480 you know, I had another I had another Nintendo one, uh, 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.920 that Nintendo would cut the price of the three D 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:05.640 S again. And I was basing that on the sales 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.400 numbers because the three D S has had done something similar. 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.360 They were selling, but they weren't selling like hotcakes. So 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.320 I thought, well, they'll they'll cut the price before the 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.439 end of the year. And I thought, especially around uh 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.719 this time of year, we're recording this, right before the 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.880 holidays here in the United States. I thought, oh, yeah, 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:23.800 that's that's they're gonna have to. Actually, something else happened. 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:27.520 They actually started selling more of them. Yeah, Nintendo had 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:30.560 when they launched the three dsh It wasn't but a 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:34.080 couple of months later that they cut the price pretty drastically. 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.040 And uh, and that was a pretty big news story 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.520 because it was it was a dramatic move on Nintendo's part. 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.320 You know, they launched a new product and then to 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.120 cut the price of that product within the same year 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.040 of its launch was a big deal. But but yeah, 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:49.280 you had said that it was probably gonna undergo yet 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:53.160 another price cut. But as it turns out, I think Nintendo, Uh, 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.160 the price cut they made was at a point that 0:13:56.640 --> 0:14:01.880 it no longer gave gamers pause um or or or 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:05.560 or hoofs for that matter, to pick up a Nintendo 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:08.360 three DS. And so they ended up the sales figures 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.319 ended up spiking. They ended up getting a good lift 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:15.880 from that, and in fact, the the the portable console 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.200 became a bit of a success or, at least much 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:21.600 more so than it had been at its original price. 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:24.920 Um Plus more games came out for it too, so 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:27.760 that kind of helped. So I'm gonna I have these 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:29.840 numbered in my notes, but I'm gonna actually jump down 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:31.920 a little bit because I have a Nintendo prediction too. 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:34.080 I just got to make sure that I go back 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.440 up when we're when we move off on this right, 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.480 I said that Nintendo would begin to work on a smartphone, 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:43.200 and as far as we know, that has not happened. 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.400 So that that was one of those things where I 0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:48.440 just looked at the market that Nintendo is in, that 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:54.360 casual gamer market, and that many casual gamers have turned 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.840 to things like smartphones and tablets uh to be the 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.320 source of their casual games. That's that's their go to 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.520 device to play games on, which means that those devices 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.560 are competing with Nintendo's products. So to me, it made 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:09.480 a lot of sense for Nintendo to look into creating 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:14.280 some sort of smartphone, either uh, partnering with another company 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.800 and then just sort of having a co branded product 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.120 or striking out on their own and trying to make 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:25.320 a Nintendo smartphone from the ground up. That did not happen. So, yeah, 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.400 let's a miss on my part. Uh, sad, it would 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:32.000 have been interesting to see. Um, let's see oh uh 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.800 Apple TV. We were we were talking last year about 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:40.560 Apple TV UM, which is not the the little device 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:43.520 um that you you plug into your TV. I was 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:45.920 we were talking about an Apple television. Yeah, an actual 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.560 TV running Apple software. Because some people were saying, any 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:52.760 minute now, we're going to see the Apple TV. The 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:55.160 same people are still saying that, Yes, you were one 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.920 of them. Yeah, uh and uh and um. Yeah. This 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:00.960 this happened with the iPad and a couple of the 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.960 other products that we've seen with them, the iPhone. It's 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:08.560 coming any day now. Yeah, it's still coming any day now. 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.000 Although it looks as the end of twenty twelve that 0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:13.880 it really isn't just a rumor that they really are 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:16.600 trying to perfect a television. Yeah, I don't know if 0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:18.120 it will be hit or not, but it looks like 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.000 it will come out. I predicted that it would not 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.640 be out by the end of twelve, and therefore it's 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:24.680 a hit and I and I disagreed. I went ahead 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:26.800 and said, you know what we're going to We're gonna 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:28.640 have this be a hit or a miss one way 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:30.600 or the other. I will go ahead and predict that 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.560 Apple will come out with Apple TV before the end 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.720 of two thousand twelve. So that was a miss for me. Um. 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:37.480 But then that was again another one of those where 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.040 it was like, I feel confident that one of these 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:43.240 two outcomes will happen, so I will take the other side. 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.200 Uh As for one of my official predictions, I said 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.920 that Netflix would get its act together and that possibly 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:52.920 Read Hastings might even leave the company, because you know, 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:55.520 two thousand eleven was a rough year for Netflix. There 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:59.960 were some some very public missteps made by the company. 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.200 I mean the I don't think I've ever seen a 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.159 CEO apologize to consumers as frequently as Read Hastings was 0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:10.000 appeared appeared to be doing in two thousand eleven. However, 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:14.160 Read the hasting and read like like a Mr. Hastings 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:20.200 did not leave the company. Yes, Uh, Hastings is still there. 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:23.440 And but I would say, you know, at least Netflix 0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:29.280 hasn't made any other big mistakes like two thousand eleven, 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.720 you know, seemed to have a rash of them. Two 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.680 thousand twelve, there wasn't really as much of that, so 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.320 I guess getting its act together, it's more or less true. 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:42.800 And also Netflix did strike some high profile deals, although 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:44.800 those deals are not going to come to fruition for 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.960 a few years. Of the deal with Disney to run 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:53.520 UH movies that the Disney features. Um, you know, Netflix 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:55.240 struck that deal with Disney, and it was a that's 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.719 a big deal, but it's something we're not going to 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:00.959 actually get to enjoy for a few more years. Actually, Uh. 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:04.600 They to be clear, they struck a couple of deals 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:07.320 with Disney, and there is another deal with Disney that 0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:12.000 did go through UH to show older Disney content, but 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:15.200 that's a separate as opposed to the stuff that's most 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:18.480 recently been in theaters. That's that's the big deal that's 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.280 not going to UH to take effect for another couple 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.119 of years. So that is that is a different animal. 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:30.679 Just just for clarifications, to um, let's see, let's see, Um, 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:34.960 I have a new Google TV. Products will come out 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:38.879 and no one will care. Wow, what a hit that was. Well, 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:45.399 Google has the wherewithal to throw its weight behind products 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:50.680 and Google TV uh while critically pretty well, critically acclaimed. Hey, 0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:53.359 this is a good product, let's see more of it. Actually, 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:56.520 that's sort of what happened with Apple's product to Hey, 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:59.160 this is really neat, but nobody's buying. I think it's 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:03.119 I think it's not quite ready like they're there, and 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:07.720 there's several features that are uh, they're not fully integrated 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:09.760 with Google TV yet. And a lot of that is 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:14.240 due to content creators resisting and so everything that the 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:16.840 Google TV should be able to do, it cannot do. 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.840 And that's more to do with business deals and and 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:24.840 non existent deals like things that need to happen to 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:28.000 have not happened. Uh. And so Google TV is a 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.200 product that's not as good as it could be, as 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:33.160 it as it was engineered to be. But but that's 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:34.960 you know, it's not the fall of the technology. That's 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:37.280 more of a business side thing. But it's still true. 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:40.520 I call that a hit. Um. I mean, we saw 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.399 Google at the Google Io event there was a lot 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.719 about Google TV, and and still it is not really 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:52.200 uh launched to any any kind of of real success 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:54.720 in the marketplace. Yeah. Well, part of the reason is 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:57.560 that the initial launch partner, I mean, there was a 0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:02.520 big um content or not content. There's a big hardware 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:05.160 deal with Logitech that they were going to partner and 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:08.400 apparently most people liked it that had tried it, but 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:11.560 you know those fifteen people I'm teasing. Uh, The thing 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:13.560 is that it was an expensive product. It was i 0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:17.000 I think when it first launched, and they ended up 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:23.240 dropping it um inn to um and they had, you know, 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:27.160 some pretty stiff competition from people like roku um. So 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:29.600 you know, they they you know, ended up shelving that. 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:32.639 Logitech said nope, we're done, We're out. Uh, And I 0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:35.159 figured somebody else will will launt in on this because 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:37.960 you know, you've got Android, you've got the h the 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:42.520 possibility of apps moving over. And it uh still didn't 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:44.280 the beat the devils that they have made this year 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:48.280 have not sold like you know one might expect. Google 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.680 Fiber might help that that whole process. I mean the 0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:56.120 fact that the fiber hoods well Yeah, and then you 0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:58.479 you know, as part of your deal of getting depending 0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:01.879 on what tear you subscribe to for a Google Fiber, 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:03.480 if you happen to be in in one of the 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:06.520 two Kansas cities in the United States, uh, you get 0:21:06.520 --> 0:21:08.840 things like a next to seven tablet that can act 0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:11.080 as a controller. So you're starting to get some of 0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.840 that Google TV functionality there in the Google Fiber service. 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:18.320 And that might even be enough to start getting kind 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:21.320 of a word of mouth campaign going and and maybe 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:24.159 we'll see an improvement in the next year. But but 0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:26.399 two thousand twelve is not Google TVs year. So that 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:28.800 was a hit for you. I said that at E 0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:31.720 three we would see at least get a sneak peak 0:21:32.160 --> 0:21:35.119 of the next generation consoles from Sony and Microsoft, and 0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:37.359 that was a miss. We did not see that. However, 0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:42.000 we'd have seen, uh some leaked reports about what those 0:21:42.080 --> 0:21:46.040 next consoles might be with the PS four or orbists 0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:50.840