1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: read enough? They're all for running a game. 3 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious. 4 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent 5 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 3: effort four thousand percent. 6 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: Of the time. 7 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 4: How shot with that? 8 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 5: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your 9 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 5: beautiful tiers. 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most. 11 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 4: Dangerous amount of the planet. 12 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. 13 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,639 Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying. 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 4: The one. It's left to the wide eyed drill bibus. 15 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: How old earth pick that happens? 16 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast 17 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 3: from the Action Network. My name is Michael E. Buff 18 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 3: Joining me as always are my friends and Action colleagues 19 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 3: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and the three of us 20 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 3: will do our best too handicap this week's midweek Premier 21 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 3: League action, and then we'll stop in La Liga Legon, 22 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 3: give out our favorite underdogs for the week ahead in soccer, 23 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 3: and then our best bets in the Premier League to 24 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 3: wrap up the show. Hey, maybe we'll even even sprinkle 25 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 3: in and aussee open bet or two if we can 26 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 3: massage it in naturally. This is a soccer show, but 27 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 3: if a tennis bet comes up, no one's going to 28 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 3: stop it here and we're going to start on Tuesday afternoon, 29 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 3: two thirty pm kickoff. Another relegation six pointer, this one 30 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 3: between Burnley still in the Premier League. They still play soccer, 31 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 3: haven't played since January second. They played two games since 32 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 3: December twelfth. They're plus one twenty hosting Watford plus two 33 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 3: to forty Watford off of a one to one draw 34 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 3: against another team in the relegation scrap Newcastle and the 35 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 3: draws plus two forty five here bj The reputation that 36 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 3: Burnley has garnered over the best decade or so in 37 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 3: their two jounts through the Premier League is that they 38 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 3: are a sturdy defense team, really tough to break down. 39 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 3: They play like the weather, cold, rainy. You don't want 40 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 3: to play against this team. That's not really been the 41 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 3: case this year and they've been leaky on defense. They 42 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 3: do play some pretty high events soccer just because they 43 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: do generate chances off of set pieces, corners, et cetera. 44 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 3: And then you got Watford, who are the high event 45 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,679 Speaker 3: kings of the league. There's only one other team in 46 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 3: Europe's five big leagues that doesn't have a clean sheet. 47 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 3: It's Watford, it's someone else in BJ. I'm going to 48 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 3: go to you for the trivia on this question because 49 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 3: it is in a league that you love, and I 50 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 3: want to see if you can guess the other team 51 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 3: that doesn't have a clean sheet this year in. 52 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 2: Soccer Ooh, I am going to go with Lorient. 53 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: It's Bordeaux Bordell. Yeah. Yeah. 54 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 3: But the point I'm making here is that these two 55 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 3: teams leaky, they can't score. Is that pointing you towards 56 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: and over? Oh? 57 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 2: Of course, yeah, I love the over here. Like you mentioned, 58 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 2: Burley hasn't played since. They have played two matches basically 59 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: since December twelfth, but in those two matches they looked horrible. 60 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 2: They allowed six goals to leads in Manchester United and 61 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: like you mentioned, the store with Sean Dych's teams over 62 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 2: the past, they set up its defensive four to four 63 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: to two. They're sturdy, they block shots, they prevent you 64 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 2: from putting crosses into the box. That has not been 65 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 2: the case at all this season. In their four to 66 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 2: four to two they're allowing one point five to eight 67 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety minutes, which is really really bad 68 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 2: when you're playing that trying to play least that defensive. 69 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 2: And Watford offensively, they haven't been that bad this season, 70 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 2: the thirteenth in non penalty expected goals, shots per ninety 71 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 2: and big scoring chances. They just created one point five 72 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 2: expected goals and had thirty shot creating actions against a 73 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 2: cerarly bad four to four to two defense in Newcastle 74 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 2: on Saturday. So I think there's a really good chance 75 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 2: that not only do they get on the board, maybe 76 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 2: they get on the board twice here and you know, 77 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 2: this turns into an open, free flowing style of game 78 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: that we're probably not expecting to see. 79 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: However, on the flip. 80 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: Side, like you mentioned, Watford is the worst defense in 81 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 2: the Premier League, especially lately, eleven point two expected goals 82 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 2: allowed in their last five matches. When we talk about Burnley, 83 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 2: we always have to talk about the set pieces. Watford 84 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: has allowed nine goals off of set this season, that's 85 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 2: third most in the Premier League. So even though Burnley 86 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 2: doesn't have Chris Wood anymore, even though Maxwell Corney is 87 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: at Africcup Nations, I do think they'll be able to 88 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 2: create some chances, especially in the box maybe close in 89 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: So I love over two and a half goals. I 90 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 2: have two point seven to one goals projected, so over 91 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 2: two and a half goals at plus one ten is 92 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 2: a good number for me. 93 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 3: I'm with you to an extent. I actually think there's 94 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: a generous price out there. I'm Burnley over two and 95 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 3: a half team total over four to one plus four 96 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: to twenty five right now. Like you said, Watford's defense 97 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 3: they give up scoring chances for fun. And I think 98 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 3: this game could be a wide open affair because if 99 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 3: there's an early goal, whoever could seize that early goal 100 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 3: needs to go out and get a point, because, like 101 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 3: we said, this is a relegation six pointer. Burnley at 102 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 3: eleven points in seventeen games played, Newcastle's at twelve, Norwich 103 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 3: is thirteen points, Watford at fourteen points with nineteen games played, 104 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 3: and then there's Everden. Don't even want to talk about 105 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 3: what's going on there. They're at nineteen points as well. 106 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,600 Speaker 3: So those five teams in the relegation scrap right now. 107 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 3: And you could say, because they do have games at hand, 108 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 3: Burnley are less likely to be relegated at the current 109 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 3: point compared to Watford, but you know, an early Watford 110 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 3: goal and all of a sudden, Burnley's chasing this game. 111 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 3: And I actually think they're more suited this year than 112 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 3: they have been in years pass to do so, because 113 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 3: they are playing these kind of more wide open games 114 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 3: that we're used to from the clare it's Anthony. Do 115 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 3: you see anything that tickles your fancy in Burnley and Watford? 116 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 4: Not particularly? I think the one interesting thing is where 117 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 4: are the goals coming from? 118 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: For Burnley. 119 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 5: We're looking at a team who has three guys were 120 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 5: healthy who average over zero point two to eight expected 121 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 5: goals per ninety this season. Jay Rodriguez has played four nineties, 122 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 5: he has point two to eighty, has not scored this year. 123 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 5: He's created some chances, but he has not scored. Maxwell Corney, 124 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 5: who is away at AFCON. Chris Wood is gone. It's 125 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,119 Speaker 5: Mattei Vidra who has also played four nineties and started 126 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 5: two Premier League matches. 127 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 4: Chris Wood losing him. 128 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 5: It wasn't a sale by Burnley, and I think that's 129 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 5: an interesting situation because Burnley clearly had no intention of 130 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 5: selling him, but with the release clause that being the 131 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 5: way it was, they had no choice and I wonder 132 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 5: how that affects a team who has already short on goals, 133 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 5: who's played two matches. Like Bja mentioned, they played a 134 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 5: very shorthanded leads team. We keep talking about how they're 135 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 5: completely injured, yet they got pretty dominated in that match 136 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,159 Speaker 5: and they played United, and United's looked bad against everybody 137 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 5: they've played except that Burnley game. 138 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 4: So I'm very hesitant to back. 139 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 5: Burnley at any number as a favorite at home, and 140 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 5: I'm lean toward Watford, but I don't really trust Burnley 141 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 5: to score, and so I'm staying away from this game. 142 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 5: I think it's going to be an ugly game and 143 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 5: one I will not regret staying away from. I think 144 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 5: when it's all said and. 145 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: Done, its is. 146 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 2: The weather's supposed to beautiful in Burnley on Tuesday, high 147 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 2: of thirty nine and sunshine, which is the first time 148 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 2: we'll see sun and maybe I don't know, he. 149 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 3: Won't let that happen. He's gonna he'll call it some 150 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 3: like Kevin Costner and calling the sprinklers or something to 151 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 3: make sure the muddy up the pitch, turn this into 152 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 3: a mud fight, turn it into like nineteen fifty eight. 153 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 3: At the other end of the Spectrum. There's another game 154 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 3: on Tuesday, three pm kickoff between Brighton plus three ninety 155 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 3: at home, coming off a draw against Crystal Palace. They're 156 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 3: hosting Chelsea minus one thirty five. They're coming off a nil, 157 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 3: tough defeat to Manchester City the Drusus plus two eighty. 158 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 3: We talk about it all the time. This Brighton team 159 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 3: they profile is a great underdog because the way they 160 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 3: can play defensively, it gets better teams like Chelsea, and 161 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 3: I think this is a clear letdown spot for the 162 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 3: Blues after that lost the City. The title race is 163 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 3: now gone. What are they playing for? They're pretty safe 164 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 3: in that top four, so I think this number on 165 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 3: Brighton's really good. Plus three ninety at the moment, would 166 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 3: play it down to plus three forty or so. The 167 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 3: Seagulls fifty non penalty expectacles allowed second and big chances allowed, 168 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 3: so this team can cloud a result against the Blues. 169 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 3: Thomas Stukals Blues Anthony Seagulls. 170 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 5: You know, it's not a jam packed slate of Premier 171 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 5: League matches, but there's a few spots that I know 172 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 5: we all tend to look for, and one of them 173 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 5: is Brighton at home. As an underdog, where they have 174 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 5: been one of the best teams in the league at 175 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 5: home for the last two years. 176 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 4: This is not a new thing. 177 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 5: Last year they were in the top five and extra 178 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 5: difference at home. This year they've actually fallen off a 179 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 5: little bit, but they're still sitting in eighth at home, 180 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 5: so they've clearly shown that they are a difficult team 181 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 5: to break down at home. But when you throw in 182 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 5: the fact that these two teams actually pretty recently played 183 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 5: at Chelsea and even despite the being on the road, 184 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 5: Brighton was the much better team for pretty much the 185 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 5: entire match. Chelsea had a hot start, They had a 186 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 5: few chances early, they scored off of a set piece 187 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 5: that I thought should not have counted, and then for 188 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 5: the next forty five minutes Chelsea did not attempt a shot. 189 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 5: The total shots were Brighton eighteen, Chelsea eleven. They scored 190 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 5: a late goal to get the equalizer, but it was 191 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 5: very deserved in stoppage time by Danny Welbeck. 192 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 4: There are some concerns for Brighton here. 193 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 5: They will not have enochum Waipu or Eves Basuma, who 194 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 5: are probably their two best midfielders, but they are getting 195 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 5: healthier in defense and should have both well Beck and 196 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 5: Malpe available for this one as well. Also, you mentioned 197 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 5: the spot for Chelsea Sandwich between City and the Big 198 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 5: Darby against Tottenham coming up on the weekend. Not a 199 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 5: good spot for the Blues to go on the road 200 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 5: to the South Coast, and so I took some Brighton 201 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 5: as soon as it opened. I like it down to 202 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 5: plus a half at plus one twenty. 203 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 3: BJAY for the listeners out there, I mean, you can't 204 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 3: watch this show you Tube. Every week you are wearing 205 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 3: a Brighton shirt. I'm guessing that means you're coming with 206 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 3: Anthony and I on the Seagulls. It would be kind 207 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 3: of weird if if you were. 208 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: I love Chelsea, Now, how do you stay away from Brighton? Here? 209 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: This is an unbelievable spot and you know, one of 210 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 2: those situational spots that only comes around, you know, once 211 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 2: every few months. Anthony already mentioned it, but you know, 212 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:20,719 Speaker 2: you go back to when these two teams first met. 213 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 2: Brighton was able to control fifty one percent possession, which 214 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 2: is really really good in your facing Chelsea, they won 215 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 2: unexpected goals one point one to zero point nine, twenty 216 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 2: six shot crating actions only eleven for Chelsea. It was 217 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 2: a very very dominant final sixty minutes from Brighton. We're 218 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 2: really just their build up play and controlling possession moving 219 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 2: forward to Chelsea's final third was very very impressive and 220 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 2: now they get to face them at home, so unbelievable 221 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 2: spot for them. 222 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:45,359 Speaker 1: The match against Crystal. 223 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,079 Speaker 2: Palace on Friday was hilarious because it was just the 224 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 2: most classic Brighton performance that we saw all last year. 225 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 2: They won unexpected Gole's two point one two point three. 226 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 2: Crystal Palace basically just put away the one big chance 227 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 2: that they had and Brighton just kept coming forward in waves, 228 00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 2: and I think that's probably what we'll see here again. 229 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 2: You know, Anthony mentioned the Sandwich spot. It's not that 230 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 2: great for Chelsea, so I don't really understand why they're 231 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 2: all the way up at minus one thirty five. And 232 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 2: the biggest thing why Chelsea is able to dominate some 233 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 2: of these smaller sides and why Brighton profiles is such 234 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 2: a good underdog is Brighton plays through pressure so well. 235 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 2: They're third in the Premier League in offensive pass per 236 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 2: defensive action. Chelsea when they faced Brighton only had around 237 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 2: a twenty one percent pressure success rate when they usually 238 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 2: average around thirty one percent. On the flip side, Brighton's 239 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 2: pressing was really good. I understand they had him Waypoo 240 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 2: and they had Masuma for that match, but they had 241 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 2: a forty two percent pressure success rate against Chelsea. That's 242 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 2: really really impressive. So this is an unbelievable spot for 243 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 2: the Seagulls at home. Love them plus half a goal 244 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 2: at plus one twenty and this is probably gonna be 245 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 2: a two unit play for me. 246 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 5: The market opened to Chelsea and minus one sixty. That 247 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:41,959 Speaker 5: was the look I had a number prior to the 248 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 5: Chelsea City game. Just an absurd opener. I actually had 249 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 5: to do a double take because I didn't realize they 250 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 5: had put this match in the schedule, and I thought 251 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 5: it was a misprint that they were playing yet again 252 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 5: so quickly, because they did just play right before Christmas. 253 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 3: But it was not. 254 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 5: And that's just an absurd opener. And I'm expecting to 255 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 5: see that market move towards Brighton even more as we 256 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 5: get closer to game time. 257 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 2: Well, last time these two teams mat I don't know 258 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 2: if you guys remember, but the market moved heavily towards 259 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 2: Chelsea at the very end, and I was kind of, 260 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 2: you know, shocked by that because I wasn't really you know, 261 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 2: obviously Brighton I think was down maybe a few defenders 262 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 2: so and Lucak, who I believe is still healthy at 263 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: that point. But now I agree with you. I don't 264 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 2: see how the market is going to move towards Chelsea 265 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 2: in this. So if you wanted at Brighton, I would 266 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 2: get in on it early. 267 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, Lukaku started that game and scored, but Conte didn't 268 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 5: play and it wasn't until he came on in probably 269 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 5: the seventy fifth minute or so that Chelsea had any 270 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 5: possession sustainability For about forty minutes there they were completely lost. 271 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 3: You can pretty much pencil in this following game script, 272 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 3: great game, Brien hangs with Chelsea nil nil, late winner 273 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 3: for Chelsea and they lose on XG by like maybe 274 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 3: a goal and a half. So get ready for the 275 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 3: pain on the South coast. We'll flip the page to 276 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 3: Wednesday two thirty pm kickoff Leicester City they're playing Maybe 277 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 3: maybe they'll try to get another game canceled there plus 278 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 3: two ten at home hosting Tottenham Hotspur, who had their 279 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: match canceled against Arsenal in dubious circumstances. Tottenhams plus one 280 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: thirty five. 281 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: Obvious circumstances. 282 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 3: Come on, we won't even get it. We won't even 283 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 3: get into it. Look less, they're set to precedent, so 284 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 3: it's just a mess. Yeah, So tottenhas plus one thirty 285 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 3: five in this one. The draws plus two thirty five. 286 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,679 Speaker 3: I think it's a good spot for Tottenham, similar to 287 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 3: what we're saying before with the Chelsea spot. Leicester City 288 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 3: they have They've played twice in about five weeks, they 289 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 3: have been off since December twenty eighth. Who knows who's 290 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 3: going to be playing on their back line. This is 291 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 3: a very improved Tottenham attack that was gearing up for 292 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 3: North London Darby, and you can say it's a letdown spot. 293 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 3: I guess a little bit that they didn't play, But 294 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 3: now they can just carry that over into a game 295 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 3: against the Foxes, who they should be able to get by, 296 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,599 Speaker 3: especially on offense. So the Spurs team is on the 297 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,959 Speaker 3: up and up under Antonio Conte. There's really no denying it. 298 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,959 Speaker 3: The numbers suggested, so I think plus one thirty five, 299 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 3: even on the road. It might seem a little expensive, 300 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 3: but I don't mind it. In the spot for Tottenham. Anthony, 301 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 3: as the Tottenham fan on this podcast, I'm gonna steer 302 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 3: you away from the arsenal Tottenham talk because that's not 303 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 3: what people are coming here for. They're coming here for 304 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 3: action on the game at hand. What do you see 305 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 3: for Leicester in Tottenham. 306 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 5: Some of my favorite advices as people who are betting 307 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 5: is you can't be afraid to lose. 308 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 4: And maybe one team in North. 309 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 5: London was on Sunday, but that's okay, and that's the 310 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 5: DA know there. We will get to that match next 311 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 5: time it comes around. 312 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: But safety is more important, Anthony, That's absolutely right. 313 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 5: As far as this game goes, I am going to 314 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 5: do the ultimate hold your nose play and I'm going 315 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 5: to play an under on a team who can't defend 316 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 5: set pieces for their lives, who are down a handful 317 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 5: of center backs, but they're also down a lot of attackers, 318 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 5: and I think that's really the big key here. 319 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 4: Spurs will be without hum and Son. 320 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 5: That means we're likely to see potentially Giovanni Lacelso in 321 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 5: an attacking midfielder role feeding Lucas and Cain. Still a 322 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 5: solid attack, but not nearly as good. Without Tottenham is 323 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 5: and so I think when you take out an attacker 324 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 5: and you put in a midfielder, that automatically sets you 325 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 5: up for a bit more of a conservative game state 326 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 5: that doesn't lead to as many chances is being created 327 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 5: for Tottenham in this match. I understand Tottenham does have 328 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,599 Speaker 5: some attacking regression coming out to major concern, but this 329 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 5: Leicester defense also isn't quite as bad as the market 330 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 5: is suggesting here with this number, I was expecting this 331 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 5: to be two and a half. They've conceded pretty solidly, 332 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 5: well over their expected goals defensively this year, and we 333 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 5: talked about this before the match that was canceled. It 334 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 5: looks like Daca is going to be back, but Ianacho 335 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 5: and Vardi are both out because of afkan and injury. 336 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 5: There's a lot of question marks about this attack for Lester, 337 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 5: and I do think Spurs under Conte are more equipped 338 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 5: to deal with the counter attacks that Lester will look 339 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 5: to hit them on here, and so I think this 340 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 5: is going to be a pretty ugly game that probably 341 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 5: ends one to noil or one one either way. 342 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 3: We can move on to the other Wednesday kickoff. It's 343 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 3: a three pm Eastern showdown between the Bees Brentford. I mean, 344 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 3: I think it's fair to say they hung with Liverpool 345 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 3: for long enough for them to have a shot at 346 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 3: causing some ruckus. They had a really good chance. It 347 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 3: was eventually offsides anyway to go out one nil in 348 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 3: that game and then ended up not scoring it or 349 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 3: not converning it. Actually, you know, Liverpool's running away with 350 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 3: the match. But Brentford are four to one at home, 351 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 3: which makes a difference with this team taking on Manchester 352 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 3: United odds on minus one thirty five on the road 353 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 3: the draws plus two to seventy five. Manchester United is 354 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 3: a mess, man. It doesn't even matter that what their 355 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 3: results are. It's just very clear that this is still 356 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 3: very disjointed team that looks like a group of eleven 357 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 3: players on a field rather than a team, and it 358 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 3: doesn't look like it's going to be getting any better 359 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 3: anytime soon. And this Brentford team, if that's the case, 360 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 3: they're going to pick them apart. That's just who they are. 361 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 3: They are a very well organized group and they've been 362 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 3: playing really well at home and they've hung with the 363 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 3: likes of Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United, et cetera throughout 364 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 3: the season, especially at home. So I think the money 365 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 3: line four to one here is great. I think Brighton 366 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 3: and Brentford my hope is you get one of them 367 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 3: across with three points in this weekend. They're both hanging 368 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 3: around four to one right now. I don't really think 369 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 3: the bright number will stay that high. Brentford number might, 370 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 3: but yeah, I think this is great value again on 371 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 3: a good team, a good team that profiles as a 372 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 3: strong underdog. BJ What do you have for United and Brentford? 373 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Brentford plus half a goal plus one fifteen. 374 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 2: There's really no way of sugarcoating how bad Brentford has 375 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 2: been the past five matches offensively only two point eight 376 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 2: expected goals. But the good news is that they're pretty 377 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 2: much fully healthy going into this match, and they've been 378 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 2: much better at home than they've been on the road 379 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 2: plus two point two expected goal differential home versus minus 380 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: five point five on the road. Manchester United didn't really 381 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 2: have that great performance against Aston Villa. They lost on 382 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 2: expected goals two point one to one. Phil had thirty 383 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 2: four touches in their penalty area compared to only nineteen 384 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 2: for United. United only had a twenty three point six 385 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 2: pressure success rate which is very concerning because that's what 386 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 2: Ragnik was brought in to do. He was brought in 387 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 2: to shore them up defensively and to improve their pressing. 388 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 2: And aston Villa is one of the worst teams in 389 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 2: the Premi League against pressure. There's seventeenth and pressure success 390 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 2: rate allowed, so very very concerning for United. And if 391 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 2: you go back and look at their defensive numbers under Ragnik, 392 00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 2: they've allowed one point one two expected goals per MAP 393 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 2: in his five matches in charge. But the list of 394 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 2: offenses that he faced is the exact opposite of Murderer's row. 395 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 2: It's Norwich, Newcastle, Wolves, Burnley and aston Villa and all 396 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 2: those clubs are bottom five and non penalty expected goals for. 397 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 2: So going against the Brighton team that has struggled against 398 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: you struggle offensively the last few matches, but with how 399 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 2: wide open United has been in the midfield and with 400 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 2: Brentford's pressing, I think that there's a good chance that 401 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: Brentford could get on the board and I think that 402 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 2: their defense will be able to hold it enough. Ronaldo 403 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 2: and Marcus Rashford are questionable, so if they're out, that 404 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 2: obviously gives Brentford a big time boost. So I have 405 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 2: this match projected pretty close to a pick them. So 406 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 2: I love the Bees plus half a goal plus one fifteen. 407 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 3: Antony, you've been talking about Brighton and Brentford, these teams 408 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 3: that do profile is strong underdog bets. I don't think 409 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 3: that this case is any different, especially with the Bees 410 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 3: playing in the friendly confines. Yeah. 411 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 5: I think I bet on Man United like twice a year, 412 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 5: and of course they blow a two no lead. For me, 413 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 5: somehow closes an underdog in that game the other day. 414 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 4: Very surprising. 415 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:58,679 Speaker 5: But I think the most concerning thing about United they 416 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 5: ran out of gas. I mean I thought they pressed 417 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 5: relatively well. The second goal they scored came from winning 418 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,199 Speaker 5: the ball high up the pitch, scoring five seconds later. 419 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 4: That's classic Ragnik ball. Good goal from Fernandez. 420 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 5: But then the last half hour Villa was the only 421 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 5: team playing, I mean, Matachers getting run by Fred looked 422 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 5: like he was kind of out of gas. They really 423 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 5: struggled to deal with the attacks, and vern also looked 424 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 5: a bit slow off the pace. I know he's been injured, 425 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 5: so he's just now coming back, so he was a 426 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 5: little bit off of it. But really, I don't think 427 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 5: United missed Rinaldo that much, but they certainly missed not 428 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 5: having their midfield depth. Now they will get Scott mctomminy 429 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 5: back for this match, so that will help. They will 430 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 5: also get Luke shawback that helps them. But you mentioned 431 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 5: it and I agree with you, guys, this is a 432 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 5: great Brentford spot. Let's look at United's last handful of 433 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 5: games they played on the road, So we'll go back, 434 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 5: of course, the match where all they gets sacked. They 435 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 5: can see two point two expected goals to Watford, then 436 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 5: they can see two point nine on the road to Chelsea. 437 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 5: They go on the road to Norwich, can see almost 438 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 5: a full expected goal, barely win that match. They go 439 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 5: on the road to Newcastle, they need a post and 440 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 5: an amazing save at the end of the game to 441 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:01,959 Speaker 5: just get a point, and they can see well over 442 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 5: one expected goal. 443 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 4: They have a few decent defensive performances at home. 444 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 5: Then they go back on the road and completely fall 445 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 5: apart in the final minutes against Villa. So a lot 446 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 5: of concerns with this United defense, especially in transition, and 447 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 5: that is exactly where Brentford will be able to attack them. 448 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 5: You also have to factor in Brentford one of the 449 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 5: best teams in the league on set pieces. United has 450 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 5: really struggled defending set pieces, and at the other end 451 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 5: of the pitch, United has not scored on a set 452 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 5: piece on a corner all year. 453 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 4: So I think it's a very difficult spot for United 454 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 4: on the road and I agree with you guys. Will 455 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 4: make it three for three on the Bees. 456 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 3: The Bees baby. All right. That wraps up the Premier League. 457 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,959 Speaker 3: We can go into the EFL Cup. The second leg 458 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 3: of the semi final between Arsenal who are home plus 459 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 3: one ninety five taking on Liverpool plus one thirty five. 460 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 3: The draw is plus two to forty five. These two 461 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,199 Speaker 3: teams drew's nil nil in the first leg at Anfield. 462 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 3: I got nothing here. I'm just kind of sick of 463 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 3: the EFL Cup at this point, like it's just it 464 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 3: feels like it's been dragging on forever and it's just 465 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 3: been a complete mess with you know, COVID stuff you 466 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 3: can clap. I don't know what he was fussing around 467 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 3: with tests. I just don't want to deal with the 468 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 3: handicap here and I don't really think there's too much value. 469 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 3: Maybe Arsenal, if you're really looking to get down if 470 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 3: you're going to be watching it and do you want 471 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 3: action on this one? I think Arsenal two to one, 472 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 3: I guess would be the only place I would look. 473 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 3: But Anthony, do you want to try to dive into 474 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 3: this and make some sense out of what's been going 475 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 3: on in the UFL Cup. Yeah? 476 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 5: I think we have to acknowledge that Liverpool put out 477 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 5: a pretty strong team last Thursday in that game, and 478 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 5: they clearly played to win it. Granted Jaka clearly played 479 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 5: not to win it, but Jaka will not be available. 480 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 5: Arsenal's so really shorthanded here, we're not sure vode guard situation. 481 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 5: He's got COVID, so there's a good chance he's not 482 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 5: back for this game. Jaka again suspended. So who's playing 483 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 5: midfield for Arsenal in this match? And bj can probably 484 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,400 Speaker 5: explain that better than I can, but I'm not sure, 485 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 5: And so I think it's very difficult to see how 486 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 5: Arsenal has any control over this game without its midfield. 487 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 5: I know Liverpool is short handed Mama and Sala are gone, 488 00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 5: but most of their back line and their midfield are 489 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 5: healthier and playing better. So I think Klopp understands that 490 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 5: the league looks like it's pretty gone then, so he's 491 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,719 Speaker 5: got a real chance here to maybe get us get 492 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 5: so aware. 493 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:09,959 Speaker 4: Even if he's not really a big fan of the Carabao, 494 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 4: but he's. 495 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 5: Shown that he's willing to take it seriously. And so 496 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 5: the only look here for me would be Liverpool. I 497 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:15,920 Speaker 5: don't love the number. I probably want it closer to 498 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 5: a pick them because you have that extra time risk 499 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 5: if this is still tied, whereas teams may play for 500 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 5: extra time if it's you know, no nil late, you 501 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 5: might not see a lot of motivation to win with 502 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 5: both teams knowing that there's going to be some extra minutes. 503 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 5: But I think you have to look to Liverpool here 504 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 5: with their ability to dominate the midfield against a pretty 505 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 5: short handed Arsenal. 506 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 3: The Premier League is the only major soccer competition going 507 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 3: right now. La Liga will also have some midweek matches. 508 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 3: BJ what what do you see? What's your favorite value 509 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 3: play in Spain for the midweek? 510 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 2: Yeah? 511 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,399 Speaker 1: I like Celtzevigo os as Soona both teams. 512 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 2: To score no at minus one twenty o soon as 513 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 2: one of the more defensive teams in Spain and it's 514 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 2: a very defensive league, so that's saying a lot. 515 00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: Their defense is really good. 516 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 2: They're allowing only point nine five non penalty expected goals 517 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: per match, but offensively they really really struggle to create 518 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 2: high quality chances, only point eight non penalty expected goals 519 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 2: per match. The thing about Soona is they play out 520 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 2: a four to four two and they try to really 521 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 2: get the ball out wide. They don't really play through 522 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch. They try to just play 523 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 2: crosses right into the box. They're second in La Liga 524 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 2: in that category. However, Selta Viegle, even though even though 525 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 2: they haven't been that great defensively, they allow the sixth 526 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 2: uest crosses into their own box, so pretty good matchup 527 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 2: for them. Also, Celta Vigo is one of the best 528 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 2: pressing teams in La Liga. They're second in pass for 529 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,359 Speaker 2: defensive action, second in pressure success rate, and first in 530 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 2: ball recoveries, while Osasuna is terrible against pressure. They're with 531 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 2: eighteenth and ball recoveries are allowed in thirteenth and pressure 532 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 2: success rate allowed. So it's gonna be very difficult for 533 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: Osona to play through the Celta Viego's defense into the 534 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 2: final third and create chances. I think this line is 535 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 2: way way too low. I have both team scored no 536 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 2: line projected around minus one ninety, so I love the 537 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 2: value on minus one twenty. 538 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 3: Anthony, do you have something for us in Spain this week? 539 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 5: I do alvase over half a goal minus one twenty 540 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 5: against Bettis. They have a pretty good attack ray Al Betis, 541 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 5: but their defense is extremely overrated and has some regression coming. 542 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,439 Speaker 5: They rank fifteenth and non penalty expected goals allowed per 543 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 5: ninety and seventeenth and big scoring chances allowed. Now, I'm 544 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 5: not going to tell you that Alavese is some attacking juggernaut. 545 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 5: They have only created nineteen point seven expected goals this year, 546 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 5: which is among the worst in the entire league, and 547 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 5: they are on the road here, but they haven't been 548 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 5: quite that bad. They've only scored sixteen goals from nineteen 549 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 5: point seven, so you would expect some attacking regression too. 550 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 5: Bettis defensively has been very fortunate. They've been fortunate at 551 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 5: both ends of the pitch really for being honest, and 552 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:42,879 Speaker 5: their table position flatters them quite a bit. So I 553 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,199 Speaker 5: think Alavas is right to get on the board here 554 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 5: and make this a competitive game. So I took over 555 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 5: half a goal on a pretty limited slate minus one twenty. 556 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,119 Speaker 3: Legal BJ, you got something for us in France. 557 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 2: A yeah, I gave out this pick I think like 558 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 2: two weeks ago and the matchcot postponed, so I'm just 559 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 2: going to go right back to it. LIL to win 560 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 2: nil or in a shutout against Lorient at plus one 561 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 2: point forty LIL. Today they drew with Marseille. They got 562 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 2: a very well earned one to one draw, even though 563 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 2: they had a red card in the thirtieth minute. They 564 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 2: heroically defended for the final hour of the match. We're 565 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 2: able to get a point. This is just an unbelievably 566 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 2: good spot for them because Lorient, on the other hand, 567 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 2: they played up a man for eighty minutes about eighty 568 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 2: minutes today and they mustered only zero point six expected 569 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 2: goals on fourteen shots against Angers. So overall for the season, 570 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 2: Lorient has been one of the worst offenses in France. 571 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 2: They're averaging only one point zero two non penalty expected goals. 572 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 2: They're nineteenth in box entries, they're dead last and big 573 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,639 Speaker 2: scoring chances created. And now they have to face the 574 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,199 Speaker 2: best defense in France, who has allowed the fewest big 575 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:48,920 Speaker 2: scoring chances. It's a horrible matchup. 576 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 3: For them. 577 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 2: On the flip side of things, Lorient one of the 578 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,360 Speaker 2: worst defenses in France, so it's no surprise that they're 579 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 2: sitting in the relegation zone right now. Their bottom seven 580 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 2: in non penalty expected goals allowed shots per ninety a 581 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,360 Speaker 2: loud and big scoring chance allowed. The one area Lil 582 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 2: tends to struggle a little bit is when teams press 583 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 2: them at a high rate. Well that's not really Lorient 584 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 2: because they're seventeenth and passes per defensive action. So fantastic 585 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 2: match up here for LIL. I was looking at both 586 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 2: teams to score. No, that's at minus one ten right now. 587 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 2: I think that's pretty good value. But in that same 588 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 2: token getting Lil to win in a shutout, I don't 589 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 2: think Laurent's really going to score in this one, So 590 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 2: a good odds to plus one forty. That's why I'm 591 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 2: going Lil to win nil at plus one forty. 592 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 3: A poetic way to close that portion of the show. 593 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 3: And now we move on. We've highlighted a couple underdogs 594 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 3: that we think have some bite to them, so now 595 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 3: we'll move on to our favorite underdogs for the week. 596 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 3: At this point, I always like to say that these 597 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 3: bets aren't for the fan of heart because they're underdogs 598 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 3: for a reason. I'll start Brentford four to one against 599 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 3: Manchester United. I don't think, or I should say, there 600 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 3: are very few teams that should be four to one 601 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 3: or higher against Manchester United right now in the Premier League, 602 00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,119 Speaker 3: and Brentford isn't one of them. Everden, that's one of them, Norwich, Newcastle, 603 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 3: you can basically name the teams that should be this 604 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 3: high at home against Matters United. Brentford, they're too good 605 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 3: for this number. Their defensive numbers have taken a hit, 606 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 3: their offensive numbers have taken a hit. However, they're still 607 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 3: relatively strong compared to where we thought that this team 608 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 3: was going to be, and they are a well organized 609 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 3: attack and a well organized defense going up against a 610 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 3: team that is the exact opposite right now. In Ralph 611 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 3: raanng Nick's brief tenure, his start United just looked disinterested. 612 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,879 Speaker 3: They look discombobulated, and I think you just should be 613 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 3: taking this team on right now as often as you can, 614 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 3: especially when you're getting numbers like this, on teams like Brentford, 615 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 3: who will give you energy, who'll give you an honest 616 00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 3: effort at great odds, So four to one on the 617 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 3: Bees Buzz Buzz baby a team we like to back 618 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 3: at odds like this, BJ. What about you? 619 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 2: Brighton plus three to ninety at home against Chelsea. Unbelievable 620 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,680 Speaker 2: spot for Brighton here in the midweek. They just faced 621 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 2: Chelsea about two weeks ago, were the more dominant side 622 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 2: for the final sixty minutes. This is a team that 623 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 2: we all have betting on that profiles so well as 624 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 2: an underdog against the bigger sides because they're able to 625 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 2: control possession, they're able to press, they're able to play 626 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 2: through the press. They were really really good against Chelsea 627 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 2: last time, got a really deserved one to one draw. 628 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 2: They won unexpected goals. They had more shots, more shot 629 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 2: creating actions. Like Anthony already mentioned. Chelsea didn't have a 630 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 2: shot after they went up and scored the goal, go 631 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 2: up one nothing. You're not going to find a better 632 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,119 Speaker 2: spot in the midweek with Brighton here and aich for 633 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 2: Chelsea and a Sandwich spot just having played Man City 634 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 2: and having to play Tottenham on the weekend. So give 635 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 2: me the Seagulls plus three ninety at home to pull off. 636 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 3: The upset, Anthony. We probably took the two teams that 637 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 3: you were going to target. You were the last person 638 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 3: into the sheet today, So what was your favorite underdog? Yeah? 639 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 4: Damn right, you guys took the two best dogs. 640 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,680 Speaker 5: I think they were the two clear ones to choose, 641 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 5: and given our history on this podcast, we love those 642 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 5: two teams, especially as underdogs. But there's one team that 643 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 5: I will cash a fade on at some point. I've 644 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 5: actually stayed away the last couple of matches, but Sevilla 645 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 5: continues to be a consistent or performer of expected goals. 646 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 5: They're sitting in second in the table. That's good for them, 647 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,439 Speaker 5: but their expected goal difference is eighth, so they continue 648 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,880 Speaker 5: to be pretty four. Meanwhile, we have a Valencia team 649 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 5: who has played very open games in Love League, at 650 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 5: least based on the goals scored and allowed thirty two 651 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 5: goals for thirty two goals allowed. That is pretty high 652 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 5: when you consider they're expected goals numbers or twenty four 653 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 5: four and twenty five allowed. 654 00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 4: So I'm expecting their defense to improve. 655 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 5: In terms of regression indicators, they have been quite as bad, 656 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 5: and I think they'll be able to keep in check 657 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 5: a Sevia team that relies a ton on crossing that's 658 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 5: the low potage special. Their number one and cross is 659 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 5: completed into the penalty area this season. Meanwhile, defensively, Valencia 660 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 5: fourth in preventing them, so a pretty strong area of 661 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 5: defense for Valencia. I think they'll be able to keep 662 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 5: the crosses out, get this game into what's really a 663 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,960 Speaker 5: coin flip situation, and so at plus two twenty five, 664 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 5: maybe we get a bound to to go our way 665 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,239 Speaker 5: with all the regression that's coming for Sevilla, I'll take 666 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 5: Valencia plus two twenty five at home. 667 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 3: Valencia, Brentford and Brighton seventy nine to one. The moneyline 668 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 3: parlaf All three of those teams come through sounds tempting. 669 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 3: This is once again where we like to say and 670 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 3: feel good about it. Feel good about it this time, 671 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 3: I really do. Let's wrap this show up with our 672 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 3: favorite bet for the midweek DJ. We'll start with you 673 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 3: favorite preer. 674 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's make it. Let's let's do it again. 675 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 2: Brighton plus half a goal plus one twenty one of 676 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 2: the best spots in a long time for. 677 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: A great underdog. 678 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 2: Brighton really gonna really undeserved one one draw with Crystal Palace. 679 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 2: One unexpected goal is two point one to point three 680 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 2: just completely dominated them last Friday at home. Now they 681 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 2: get a Chelsea team coming in a Sandwich spot between 682 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 2: just having faced Manchester City and having a face Tottenham 683 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 2: on the weekend. The last time these two teams faced, 684 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 2: Brighton was really really good at not only playing through 685 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 2: Chelsea's press because Chelsea only had a twenty one percent 686 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 2: pressure success rate, but they were unbelievable at pressing Chelsea 687 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 2: themselves forty two percent pressure success rate. So I'm expecting 688 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 2: that again. Even though they're not going to have you 689 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 2: knocking Waipu, even though they're not gonna have yez Busuma, 690 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 2: it's still an unbelievable matchup for Brighton at home. So 691 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 2: give me the Seagulls plus half a goal at plus 692 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 2: one twenty for me, it's. 693 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 3: A I think it's another good spot to target and 694 00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 3: that's Tottenham Hotspur plus one thirty five on the road. 695 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 3: It's a little expensive for a team going up against 696 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 3: Leicester City, but Leicester hasn't played in quite a while 697 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 3: December twenty eighth. Tottenham has been on the up and 698 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 3: up under Antoniocante, so we just don't know what kind 699 00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 3: of team we're going to get out of Leicester Collecci, 700 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,760 Speaker 3: Yonacho is at Afcon, Jamie Vardy's hurt, the backline has 701 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 3: been decimated with injury. Meanwhile, Tottenham, like I said, they're 702 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 3: hitting their stride right now, So I think you're buying high. 703 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 3: But I think it's a good time to buy high 704 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 3: on Tottenham. Hotspurit plus one thirty five traveling to the 705 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 3: King Power to take on the Foxes. Anthony, take us home, 706 00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 3: my friend. 707 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll take Brentford plus a half plus one twenty. 708 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 5: The Bees have been a considerably better team at home 709 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,320 Speaker 5: this year than they've been on the road, despite all 710 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 5: of their struggles away from Brentford Community Stadium. They've taken 711 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 5: on these big clubs like Arsenal, like Liverpool, like Chelsea, 712 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 5: and they've really competed at home and kept all those 713 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 5: games close, either losing by one goal, winning or getting 714 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 5: a draw. They also played very competitively at home against 715 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 5: Manchester City. Well, now they're getting another Big six club 716 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 5: in man unit ID, one that appears to be taking 717 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,320 Speaker 5: on Water with all kinds of injury issues, squad depth concerns. 718 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,719 Speaker 5: They are getting some guys back here, but United has 719 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 5: been really, really bad defensively in transition They've also struggled 720 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 5: to put a consistent good ninety minutes together under Ralph Ragnik. 721 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,640 Speaker 4: They do not score off of set pieces. 722 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 5: Brentford has a huge advantage on set pieces as well 723 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 5: in this game at both ends of the pitch. So 724 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 5: I'm happy to back the Bees at home plus a 725 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 5: half plus one twenty and I think they have a 726 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 5: real shot to win this game. 727 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 3: And that just about does it for another episode of 728 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 3: wander Goal for Anthony Debundo for BJ Cunningham, I Michael 729 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,600 Speaker 3: Leebuff will see you again Thursday morning to preview the 730 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 3: weekend to come in the Premier League, and we'll probably 731 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 3: talk a little gayl Month feet in the osse Open. 732 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,800 Speaker 3: He looks like he's about death win his first round 733 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 3: and I think all three of us around him to 734 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 3: do some damage here in the OSSI. So if you 735 00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 3: want to jump on forward with that one, come on 736 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 3: the train, the La Month train, Ali La Mont and 737 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:57,600 Speaker 3: with that, who wish you the best of luck in 738 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 3: your soccer bets for the midweek to the Fols on 739 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 3: a famish hair