1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:12,640
Speaker 2: They say is the Bloomberg Daybreak here at podcast, available

3
00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,280
Speaker 2: every morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Thursday,

4
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:19,200
Speaker 2: the sixteenth of January in London. I'm Stephen Carroll.

5
00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 3: And I'm Valerie Titel coming up today. Israel accuses Hamas

6
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,160
Speaker 3: of renegging on parts of an agreement for a six

7
00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,080
Speaker 3: week pause in the war in Gaza.

8
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,880
Speaker 2: Slower US inflation, sparks and everything rally across markets as

9
00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:35,120
Speaker 2: traders boost expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

10
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 3: Plus an extreme wealth warning. President Joe Biden calls on

11
00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,559
Speaker 3: Americans to be wary of the mega rich in his

12
00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,120
Speaker 3: farewell address.

13
00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:44,879
Speaker 1: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

14
00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,520
Speaker 3: Israel says Hamas has renegged on its Gaza seafire deal,

15
00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,920
Speaker 3: creating a last minute crisis that may delay or prevent

16
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,840
Speaker 3: the pause in fighting. The Israel Prime Minister Nityahu's office

17
00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:58,840
Speaker 3: says the country's cabinet will not sign off on the

18
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,280
Speaker 3: deal until Hamas accepts all parts of the agreement. It

19
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,400
Speaker 3: is as yet unclear which parts of the ceasefire terms

20
00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:06,200
Speaker 3: are in contention.

21
00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,640
Speaker 2: The deal had been hailed as a historic moment by

22
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,119
Speaker 2: world leaders. It was hoped that these six week halt

23
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,080
Speaker 2: in fighting could lead to a permanent end to the conflict,

24
00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,440
Speaker 2: which is almost totally destroyed the Gaza Strip. Here's US

25
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,680
Speaker 2: President Joe Biden announcing the agreement.

26
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:26,200
Speaker 4: The long last I can announce a ceasefire. A hostage

27
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:30,200
Speaker 4: deal has been reached between Israel and a mass fighting

28
00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,480
Speaker 4: in Gaza will stop, and soon the hostigan return home

29
00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:35,280
Speaker 4: and their families.

30
00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 2: Both Biden and President Elect Trump claimed credit for the agreement,

31
00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,960
Speaker 2: which would see thirty three hostages captured by Hamas released.

32
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 2: If agreed, Israel would withdraw from populated areas of the

33
00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,560
Speaker 2: Gaza Strip and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

34
00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,640
Speaker 3: The UK economy narrowly returned to growth in November, but

35
00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,880
Speaker 3: the pace of expansion fell short of expectations. GDP expanded

36
00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,280
Speaker 3: by zero point one percent fallowing and zero point one

37
00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 3: percent contraction in both September and October. It means the

38
00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,440
Speaker 3: economy is still smaller than it was in June, the

39
00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 3: month before Labor came to power. CEO of the BGF

40
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,240
Speaker 3: and Gregory says the government needs to do more to

41
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,200
Speaker 3: make good on its promise of kickstarting growth to be blunt.

42
00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,560
Speaker 5: I think the jury's is definitely out, so we engage

43
00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:27,000
Speaker 5: as sure many other businesses did for the election, very

44
00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:31,079
Speaker 5: very strong noises, positive noises, and we have seen that

45
00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,040
Speaker 5: continue post the election. I think the challenge the sacrifices

46
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:38,760
Speaker 5: that are required to really invest in support business you

47
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:39,800
Speaker 5: have to be made.

48
00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 3: That was Andy Gregory, whose fund was formerly known as

49
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,440
Speaker 3: the Business Growth Fund and is the most active equity

50
00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,640
Speaker 3: investor in the UK. The figures will reinforce fears that

51
00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:54,000
Speaker 3: the UK is stuck in a stagflationary trap of rising

52
00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:59,160
Speaker 3: prices and flatlining growth. Despite a slowdown in inflation in December.

53
00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:05,080
Speaker 2: US core inflation slowed marginally yesterday in figures published, triggering

54
00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,720
Speaker 2: a significant relief rally. Prices excluding food and energy cost

55
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:10,960
Speaker 2: rows by zero point two percent last month.

56
00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,560
Speaker 1: That was less than analyst that estimated.

57
00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,520
Speaker 2: Austin Goolsby is one of a trio of FED policymakers

58
00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,520
Speaker 2: saying the latest data means a soft landing is in sight.

59
00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,919
Speaker 6: The trend continues to be improvement in inflation. I'm still

60
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 6: optimistic for twenty twenty five that we can continue growing

61
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,760
Speaker 6: and have a soft landing.

62
00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:33,840
Speaker 1: Chicago fed President Austin Goolsby.

63
00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 2: There, the optimism around the slow down in inflation saw

64
00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,080
Speaker 2: the SMP five hundred close one point eight percent higher yesterday,

65
00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 2: futures appointing higher today as well. Tenure treasury yields fell

66
00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,440
Speaker 2: fourteen basis point yesterday. They're up one today at four

67
00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:48,600
Speaker 2: point sixty seven percent.

68
00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,520
Speaker 3: President Biden is warning that America is in danger of

69
00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,800
Speaker 3: becoming a society ruled by the extremely wealthy. In his

70
00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,000
Speaker 3: farewell address, the outgoing president says, the ultra rich are

71
00:03:58,000 --> 00:03:59,640
Speaker 3: threatening democracy.

72
00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,000
Speaker 4: On a war in the country, some things that give

73
00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:05,280
Speaker 4: me great concern, and that's a dangerous conversation of power

74
00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,640
Speaker 4: in the hands of very few ultrawealthy people, the dangerous

75
00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,280
Speaker 4: consequences if their abuse of power is left unchecked. Today,

76
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,120
Speaker 4: an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth,

77
00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,200
Speaker 4: power and influence that literally threads our entire democracy, our

78
00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:21,919
Speaker 4: basic rights and freedoms.

79
00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,880
Speaker 3: Biden's message marked the end of his fifty years in politics,

80
00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,880
Speaker 3: as his tenure as the forty six president ends with

81
00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,279
Speaker 3: having lost control of the presidency in both chambers of Congress.

82
00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,760
Speaker 3: Incoming President Donald Trump has tapped some of America's richest

83
00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,040
Speaker 3: men for top roles in an administration, including Elon Musk.

84
00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,919
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, will tell senators that

85
00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,440
Speaker 2: maintaining the dollar as the world's reserve currency is critical

86
00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,400
Speaker 2: to the US economy. According to remarks prepared for his

87
00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,919
Speaker 2: confirmation hearing, Scott Bassant will say the country must deploy

88
00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,800
Speaker 2: sanctions as part of a whole government approach to national security.

89
00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,200
Speaker 2: The remarks will be his first public comments since he

90
00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,160
Speaker 2: was nominated to lead the Treasury.

91
00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 1: Back in November.

92
00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,080
Speaker 2: Or the Republicans in control of the Senate, it's expected

93
00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,400
Speaker 2: that percent will be easily confirmed in the role.

94
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:12,039
Speaker 3: Blue Origins new flagship rocket successfully reached orbit, putting the

95
00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,360
Speaker 3: company in the ranks of the space industry's big players.

96
00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,120
Speaker 3: Take a listen to the moment. The new Glen rocket

97
00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,880
Speaker 3: took off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, earlier this morning.

98
00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:37,400
Speaker 7: Poor lived off all seven engines of pull thread through

99
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:37,839
Speaker 7: the tower.

100
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,720
Speaker 3: The launch was a crucial test of the Jeff Bezos

101
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:46,040
Speaker 3: backs firm's ability to challenge SpaceX's ironclad grip on the

102
00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 3: launch market. It wasn't completely successful, though, The first stage booster,

103
00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,680
Speaker 3: which was supposed to be reusable missed its landing in

104
00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,200
Speaker 3: a barge in the Atlantic.

105
00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:58,640
Speaker 1: On dangerous when stoking.

106
00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,359
Speaker 2: The fires in Los Angeles forecast to end today, but

107
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,040
Speaker 2: a lack of rain and another round of weather warnings

108
00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,760
Speaker 2: from the US National Weather Service for next week means

109
00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,440
Speaker 2: officials are still worried. Deadly blazes in the area have

110
00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,400
Speaker 2: killed at least twenty five people and destroyed thousands of structures.

111
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,360
Speaker 2: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass says the situation is still developing.

112
00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,000
Speaker 8: We're not out of the woods yet. There is a

113
00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:26,159
Speaker 8: chance that the Santa Annas might spike up again next

114
00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,599
Speaker 8: week while we're still being vigilant. While we're still in

115
00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,480
Speaker 8: this emergency, we also have to begin the process of

116
00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:35,960
Speaker 8: recovery and rebuilding.

117
00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,599
Speaker 2: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, speaking there. The recent fires

118
00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,960
Speaker 2: are expected to rank among the costliest in modern US history.

119
00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,200
Speaker 2: Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate in shured losses could

120
00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,080
Speaker 2: reach as much as thirty billion dollars.

121
00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,479
Speaker 3: Those are your top stories on the market. The Eurostark

122
00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,919
Speaker 3: Sings hundred is up a half of one percent on

123
00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,560
Speaker 3: Wall Street s and p futures up three tens of

124
00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,159
Speaker 3: one percent. Your dollars trading flat at one O two

125
00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,000
Speaker 3: ninety two and the tenure Treasury is up one basis

126
00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 3: point to four spot sixty six.

127
00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 1: Well, in a moment, we'll bring you more on that.

128
00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,520
Speaker 2: Breaking news from the Middle East this morning that the

129
00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,920
Speaker 2: ceasefire looks like it could be in jeopardy.

130
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,000
Speaker 1: But just wanted to mention as well.

131
00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,560
Speaker 2: Another story that we've been talking about this morning from

132
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:20,720
Speaker 2: our colleagues here at Bloomberg, and this is to do

133
00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,520
Speaker 2: with Hindenburg Research, which is being disbanded.

134
00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:23,800
Speaker 6: Yeah.

135
00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,400
Speaker 3: Nate Anderson, the short seller who made his name in

136
00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:30,520
Speaker 3: the campaigns targeting billionaires such as Gotta Ma, Donnie Jack Dorsey,

137
00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,920
Speaker 3: and Carl Icon, says that he's onto a new chapter

138
00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:34,600
Speaker 3: in his life.

139
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:36,960
Speaker 2: I was surprised that only eleven people worked at Hindenburg's

140
00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,480
Speaker 2: researcher Kevin, very small number of people for the impact

141
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 2: that they had with some of their research as well.

142
00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:43,960
Speaker 1: I mean, really interesting to see.

143
00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,760
Speaker 2: I suppose that he's moving on given the effects that

144
00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,640
Speaker 2: he's research had on markets as well. It's be interesting

145
00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:50,720
Speaker 2: to see what he does next.

146
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting to know if this was maybe led

147
00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 3: by recent profits or losses, or whether it's just time

148
00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,400
Speaker 3: to move on. But I guess we'll see.

149
00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,640
Speaker 2: Let's bring you more now on that story, at least

150
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,440
Speaker 2: there where Israel has accused the mass of renegging on

151
00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,640
Speaker 2: parts of the Gaza cease fire deal. For the latest

152
00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,280
Speaker 2: were joined Byron Middleast editor Paul Wallace and Bloomberg opinion

153
00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,800
Speaker 2: columnist Mark Champion joins us as well. Paul, Let's start

154
00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,760
Speaker 2: with you what exactly has Israel said and its later statement?

155
00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,000
Speaker 9: Hi, Stephen, this was a statement that came out only

156
00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,840
Speaker 9: about half an hour ago from Prime Minister Benjamin nettannol

157
00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:22,480
Speaker 9: Who's office.

158
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,040
Speaker 1: It was a bit of a surprise.

159
00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,800
Speaker 9: He said that Hamas has renegged done some parts of

160
00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 9: the agreement that was announced yesterday, and he said that

161
00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,640
Speaker 9: as a consequence, Israel's security Kebinet is no longer going

162
00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:41,200
Speaker 9: to convene to approve the cease fire until Hamas has

163
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:46,560
Speaker 9: agreed to all the points. It is a bit unclear

164
00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,600
Speaker 9: whether Hamas has renegged done anything. It's it put out

165
00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:53,680
Speaker 9: a statement as well saying it's committed to this deal.

166
00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,200
Speaker 9: I think whatever the case, it does show that there

167
00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:01,280
Speaker 9: is a lot of opposition to the cease fire deal

168
00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:10,400
Speaker 9: within the Israeli cabinet, and probably more opposition than than Netano,

169
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,400
Speaker 9: who presumed last night.

170
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,000
Speaker 2: Paul, what can we say at this day is the

171
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,840
Speaker 2: ceasefire is really in jeopardy. How are you reading these

172
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,319
Speaker 2: statements that we're going out. Very good question, and it's

173
00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:25,160
Speaker 2: unclear at the moment.

174
00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,640
Speaker 9: I think it is in jeopardy, and we're going to

175
00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,520
Speaker 9: have to watch in the next few hours just what

176
00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,559
Speaker 9: comes out of the Israeli government and whether they do

177
00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:38,880
Speaker 9: decide to hold the Security Cabinet vote. That's pretty crucial.

178
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,400
Speaker 9: It was broadly speaking, the consensus was that it would

179
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,840
Speaker 9: the Security Cabinet would approve it, albeit with some resistance

180
00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:52,559
Speaker 9: from far members of the government and maybe some others.

181
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,160
Speaker 9: But that's essentially the next step that has to happen

182
00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:02,040
Speaker 9: for the ceasefire to actually be implemented and start on Sunday.

183
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 9: It's for this Israeli Security Cabinet vote to go ahead

184
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,400
Speaker 9: and for the deal to be passed by by that body.

185
00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,120
Speaker 3: Let's bring in our Bloomberg opinion Columbus Mark Champion. Mark

186
00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,560
Speaker 3: any analysis on these latest developments.

187
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,760
Speaker 10: Well, I think the main thing to point out, just

188
00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,680
Speaker 10: threely to support what Paul was saying, is that this

189
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 10: isn't the first time that we've had this this kind

190
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,599
Speaker 10: of you know, sort of stop start. You know, the

191
00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 10: deal that it was agreed is more or less the

192
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:37,000
Speaker 10: same as was on the table last August and was

193
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,679
Speaker 10: on the table you know, the previous spring. And you

194
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 10: you know, multiple times you had you know, one side

195
00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:50,199
Speaker 10: accusing the other of suddenly introducing new you know, conditions

196
00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,319
Speaker 10: that hadn't been you know there when they agreed and

197
00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:58,120
Speaker 10: so on. So I think, you know, it is very

198
00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 10: wise to wait and see exactly, you know, what it

199
00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,800
Speaker 10: was that was rejected, whether it was you know, part

200
00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,200
Speaker 10: of what the mediator saw as the deal, or whether

201
00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:13,720
Speaker 10: these are sort of additional things that or interpretations that

202
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,040
Speaker 10: the Israelis had of the deal.

203
00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,360
Speaker 11: And again just to say, you know, for example, last August,

204
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:19,719
Speaker 11: you know.

205
00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:27,599
Speaker 10: Prime Minister at Yah who he introduced a requirement that

206
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,200
Speaker 10: that the Israeli forces should be allowed to stay in

207
00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,360
Speaker 10: the so called Philadelphi Corridor, which is one hundred meter

208
00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:38,000
Speaker 10: wide roughly strip that runs along the border between Gaza

209
00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:43,000
Speaker 10: and Egypt, and you know, that effectively scuppered the deal.

210
00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,880
Speaker 10: Then he said that it was you know, it was

211
00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 10: part of the deal, and the you know, the Hamas

212
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,880
Speaker 10: said that it was you know, introduced at the last minute,

213
00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:54,760
Speaker 10: so we have been here before.

214
00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,760
Speaker 2: Mark, if if we take it that this this is

215
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:03,960
Speaker 2: five will go ahead in some form and that whatever

216
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:09,120
Speaker 2: these latest difficulties are can be resolved. Your piece earlier

217
00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:14,200
Speaker 2: this morning was looking at the US involvement in all

218
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,559
Speaker 2: of this. We know that there's been ongoing mediation under

219
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,240
Speaker 2: the Biden administration as well. But a point that you

220
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,120
Speaker 2: made is how Donald Trump plays into all of this

221
00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,520
Speaker 2: as well, and that he can, in your view, take

222
00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:29,200
Speaker 2: credit for this agreement being reached. What was it do

223
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,200
Speaker 2: you think that he had an influence over.

224
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 10: Well, I think he's you know, he's it's simply being

225
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,719
Speaker 10: Donald Trump, to be quite honest. So you have a

226
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,160
Speaker 10: change of you know, presidency, you're going to have, you know,

227
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 10: Trump will be in the White House for the next

228
00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:45,839
Speaker 10: four years.

229
00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:50,040
Speaker 11: He's the guy that Benjamin Netanya will have to deal with.

230
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,960
Speaker 10: And you know, he's really was faced with a choice

231
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,920
Speaker 10: when Trump made it very clear he wanted a deal

232
00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:59,160
Speaker 10: before the inauguration.

233
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:05,719
Speaker 11: He that presented with a really binary choice. You know, either.

234
00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:10,760
Speaker 10: I you know, play ball, or I'm going to you know,

235
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:14,680
Speaker 10: alienate the next president of the United States and somebody

236
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:19,360
Speaker 10: who has actually, you know, by by incarnation is the

237
00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:25,000
Speaker 10: most supportive of the you know, quite nationalist agenda that

238
00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 10: who has of any US president who's been elected. So

239
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,400
Speaker 10: I think it you know, forced him really kind of

240
00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,559
Speaker 10: boxed him into a corner.

241
00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,880
Speaker 11: Uh. And as Paul was saying.

242
00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,360
Speaker 10: He now has to sell the deal to people within

243
00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 10: his cabinet who are you know, much further to the right,

244
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:46,240
Speaker 10: even further to.

245
00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,600
Speaker 11: The right than Anya who is and that has always

246
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:50,760
Speaker 11: been a difficult.

247
00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,400
Speaker 3: Cell mark in your opinion, How likely will this end

248
00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 3: in a permanent end to the war.

249
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,840
Speaker 10: I think it's quite unlikely for so, you know, I

250
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:07,960
Speaker 10: this you know, initial rebuff is a bit of a surprise.

251
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,640
Speaker 10: I thought that Netanya, who had you know, got his

252
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 10: troops in order, if you like, in the cabinet, but

253
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:18,240
Speaker 10: it seems he may not have done. But it was

254
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 10: always the case that this first stage of the deal

255
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,000
Speaker 10: is relatively easy for.

256
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:26,480
Speaker 11: Israel to agree to.

257
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 10: You know, they get hostages out, they give prisoners in exchange,

258
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 10: that's been done many times before, and they have to

259
00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 10: withdraw their troops, but not out of Gaza altogether. It's

260
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 10: not an end of the war altogether. It is you know,

261
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 10: a withdrawal of troops from populated areas.

262
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,360
Speaker 11: So and then you have a second phase.

263
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,160
Speaker 10: And it's the second phase when it gets really difficult

264
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,280
Speaker 10: and you start to have to think about, well, how

265
00:14:53,760 --> 00:15:00,120
Speaker 10: if IDF troops withdraw altogether from Gaza, what who who

266
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 10: is going to rule in Gaza? How is that going

267
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,360
Speaker 10: to be organized? Who is going to organize security? If

268
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,280
Speaker 10: it isn't going to be the idea? These are very

269
00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,520
Speaker 10: very difficult questions that you know, force you down different,

270
00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:18,320
Speaker 10: very different paths from the one that these really cabinet wants.

271
00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,320
Speaker 2: Paul, What should we be watching out for over the

272
00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 2: next couple of hours. There's there's a story that appears

273
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:24,840
Speaker 2: to be continually evolving.

274
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,480
Speaker 9: It is and I think it's very much this security

275
00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:32,760
Speaker 9: cabinet vote. If that does you know, if if if

276
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 9: they do convene for that, I think that's a you know,

277
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 9: probably a positive sign that they've managed to that let

278
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 9: you know, who has managed to overcome whatever resistance is

279
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 9: for the first step of the steal. As Mark says,

280
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 9: the first step is you know, it's the easiest one

281
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 9: for Israel. It gets trickier after after it agrees or

282
00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:59,840
Speaker 9: if it agrees to the INITIALC.

283
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

284
00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

285
00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 12: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

286
00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 12: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

287
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

288
00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

289
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 12: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

290
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:26,120
Speaker 12: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

291
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,400
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hipka and I'm Stephen Carol.

292
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,800
Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

293
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 2: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day

294
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:38,520
Speaker 2: Break Europe