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Speaker 1: Hello, they're happy Wednesday. Welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. We are creeping ever so closely to the

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Speaker 1: end of October, which doesn't mean just Halloween and trick

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Speaker 1: or treat candy boy Friday Night Halloween. Man, that is

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Speaker 1: let's just say for communities that go crazy for Halloween,

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Speaker 1: oh the poor dogs, right, it's going to be later nights,

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Speaker 1: louder kids, all this stuff. It's gonna be a lot

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Speaker 1: of fun for people of a certain age. It's going

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Speaker 1: to be a really rough night for our canine friends

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Speaker 1: on that front, that's for sure. Friday Night Halloween. Who

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Speaker 1: I know here in d C. Georgetown used to be

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Speaker 1: a lot of fun for Halloween. Madison, Wisconsin, that's a

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Speaker 1: big Halloween place. There's a lot of great Halloween college

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Speaker 1: towns and celebrations. So always on the lookout for that.

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Speaker 1: And then, of course, if it's the end of October

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Speaker 1: and your name is Chuck Todd, all you think about is, oh,

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Speaker 1: there's an election day coming up, because it's November. And

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Speaker 1: every November, whether it's an odd number and even number,

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Speaker 1: there is enough important state wide elections that we have

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Speaker 1: to give a darn. So this is a political Junkie episode.

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Speaker 1: Just warning up front, I'm going to do my sort

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Speaker 1: of dive into how I'm watching the twenty twenty five elections.

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Speaker 1: This is also Top five Day. I've got a fun

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Speaker 1: top five list that's campaign twenty twenty six related, if

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Speaker 1: you will. It's not necessarily your normal rankings that you're

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Speaker 1: going to expect for me monthly. My more monthly Senate

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Speaker 1: rankings will be coming up starting in November again on

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Speaker 1: the early part of that. But I do have a

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Speaker 1: fun top five list. We'll do some questions, and more importantly,

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Speaker 1: I got a fun announcement. I'm going to be doing

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Speaker 1: an election night live stream with my friends Chris Slizza,

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Speaker 1: the Decision Desk HQ folks who are going to be

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Speaker 1: provided the data that I'll be using. They'll be calling elections.

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Speaker 1: I promise you you'll be getting probably election results faster in

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Speaker 1: our live stream and their Twitter feed than anywhere else

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Speaker 1: in legacy media or Internet media. We will have a

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Speaker 1: cavalcade of political stars, everybody that you love to follow

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Speaker 1: in the political data world, whether it's on stage, left stage,

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Speaker 1: right stage, center, they're all It's almost like Jerry Lewis's telethon.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to bring everybody in, so you'll have my

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Speaker 1: friend Chris Aliza, you have that. We'll start from there.

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Speaker 1: But we're going to start our coverage six thirty pm.

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Speaker 1: Go Live. We'll be live on Twitter, live on a

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Speaker 1: variety of YouTube channels, not just Mine, Decision Desk, HQs,

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Speaker 1: Solissa's everybody that's going to be a guest, and you'll

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Speaker 1: see those guests coming up. We'll have some great graphics

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Speaker 1: provided by Decision Desk. We're just going to have a

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Speaker 1: good time. It is an election result coverage designed for

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Speaker 1: people who eat, breathe, and sleep politics. I assume if

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Speaker 1: you listen to this show, this is how you're gonna

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Speaker 1: and you're at all curious what's happening on election night,

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Speaker 1: whether it's the Virginia ag race, Virginia governor, New Jersey governor,

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Speaker 1: who's going to finish second in New York City mayor

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Speaker 1: can Mom Donnie get fifty percent? You see where I'm going.

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Speaker 1: We'll cover Pennsylvania judges, mayor's races, the referendum out west.

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Speaker 1: We're going to go at least till eleven o'clock at night,

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Speaker 1: maybe longer if there is a race that hasn't been

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Speaker 1: called we will stick it with you. But it's election

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Speaker 1: night like you've never experienced it before. Essentially election coverage

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Speaker 1: geared to data, geared to results, and geared to understanding

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Speaker 1: what is happening. We won't have rank ass sort of

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Speaker 1: crappy punditry that you get tired of when you see

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Speaker 1: the Cavalcada stars show up in other places. I promise

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Speaker 1: you we will. We will let that data be the star.

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Speaker 1: So please, if you haven't subscribed to my channel or

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Speaker 1: anybody else's channel, subscribe, And of course I'll be promoting

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Speaker 1: the heck out of this so you won't be able

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Speaker 1: to miss it again. You'd better watch it on my

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Speaker 1: Twitter feed. We'll go live on Twitter, We'll go live

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Speaker 1: on YouTube, go live in as many places as we

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Speaker 1: can do it. So with that, let me give you

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Speaker 1: a little preview of the most important election we will

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Speaker 1: hold until the next one. I love sort of. I

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Speaker 1: don't know about you, but I've been exhausted. I've covered

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Speaker 1: the most important presidential election of my lifetime, five straight

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Speaker 1: presidential election, so you know this is easily the most

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Speaker 1: important Virginia governor's race I've covered since the last Virginia

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Speaker 1: governor's race, and it certainly is the most important New

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Speaker 1: York City mayor's race since the last race for New

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Speaker 1: York City mayor that we've had. But in all seriousness,

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Speaker 1: I do think there's a lot to learn even in

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Speaker 1: these off years. This is my friend John Eliso, who

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Speaker 1: does news items political items. If you don't subscribe to

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Speaker 1: that substock, you should, it's great, it's terrific. He has

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Speaker 1: a fun science and tech bent I just love. So

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Speaker 1: it's not just the political and national security coverage that

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Speaker 1: he prioritizes. But he did a pretty good deep dive

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Speaker 1: into his take on these off off year elections and

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Speaker 1: basically he called it the local elections that have national

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Speaker 1: impact because they are very local. Right, these are in

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Speaker 1: some ways, yes, there are some national trend lines to

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Speaker 1: read into what happens in Virginia and we're possibly may

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Speaker 1: be seeing something happening in New Jersey, and certainly directionally,

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Speaker 1: how are incumbents doing in general, particularly incumbent mayor things

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Speaker 1: like that. So there's plenty of tea leaves to read

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Speaker 1: for the national trends, but these are largely local elections

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Speaker 1: being driven in many cases by local issues. So I

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Speaker 1: just want to do a little primer for you and

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Speaker 1: how in some ways this is I'm giving a little

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Speaker 1: preview of what we're going to be looking for on

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Speaker 1: election night itself. So let's start in the state of Virginia.

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Speaker 1: A few little interesting nuggets. Has I think been a

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Speaker 1: pretty good foreshadow of our politics nationally. Well, Virginia is

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Speaker 1: in a perfect Bellweather state anymore, I think for a

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Speaker 1: couple of terms there in peak Obama, it was I

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Speaker 1: think Virginia, arguably, particularly Virginia twenty eight and Virginia twenty

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Speaker 1: twelve were probably sort of you know, right where the

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Speaker 1: country and as you know, whatever, whatever the number was

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Speaker 1: for Obama and Virginia's what his number would be nationally,

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Speaker 1: it was very it was it was pretty much the

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Speaker 1: Bellweather state. But Virginia's had an allergy to trump Ism.

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Speaker 1: It is not this is a purple state that is

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Speaker 1: not mega, right, It certainly has some Mega supporters, but

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a reason why it took a non

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Speaker 1: Maga Republican to win statewide and Clannenton, right, So there's

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Speaker 1: a you know, and I'm one of those who believes

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Speaker 1: when when Trump is done with the Republican Party, when

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Speaker 1: it pulls back from its sort of isolation his streak,

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Speaker 1: and it's sort of I don't want to call it

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Speaker 1: anti business, but certainly business skeptical streak that it's in

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Speaker 1: that Virginia is one of those states that may go

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Speaker 1: back into the battleground So it's always worth noting there

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Speaker 1: a few fun facts about Virginia. Right since nineteen seventy seven,

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Speaker 1: it's a remarkable streak. The party controlling the White House

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Speaker 1: has lost the Virginia governor's race every single time except

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Speaker 1: for once in seventy seven, and that was Terry mccaloff

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Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen, and arguably he only won that race

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Speaker 1: because there was a government shutdown happening at the time

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Speaker 1: and it helped Terry mccoff. Terrymcaff couldn't clear fifty percent,

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Speaker 1: but he did win the governor's race. It is there

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Speaker 1: is something there right. Virginia is the first time opportunity

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Speaker 1: for the Out Party to make a statement for the

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Speaker 1: Out Party. Virginia being so close to Washington, they get

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Speaker 1: big access to frustrated national donors of the Out Party,

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Speaker 1: so they doubled down. It's the first test of an

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Speaker 1: out party to come up up with a new message,

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Speaker 1: a new type of Republican to try to talk to

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Speaker 1: the electorate or a new type of Democrat, you know,

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Speaker 1: to talk to the electorate. Right. In this case, it's

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Speaker 1: you know, after Biden's election. You know, it was a

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Speaker 1: new type of Republican in Younkin. After Trump's election. It's

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Speaker 1: a different you know, different type of Democrat than Biden

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Speaker 1: and a spamburger, right, so you see that it is

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Speaker 1: there is something to it as to why I think

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Speaker 1: you've seen you've seen Virginia b so bell Weathery. Let's

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Speaker 1: be honest, Samberger's running very careful race, very risk averse race,

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Speaker 1: and you know she began the race ahead. I don't

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Speaker 1: think she's trailed a single day in this race if

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Speaker 1: you were actually doing tracking polls. And part of it

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Speaker 1: is I think the lieutenant governor win some earl series

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Speaker 1: has had a hard time separating herself from the from

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Speaker 1: just being you know, being a standalone candidate. She's at

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Speaker 1: times tried to run as the heir apparent to Youngkin.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's yard signs in my neighborhood. Let's keep

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Speaker 1: a good thing going. You know, elect wins the world sears.

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Speaker 1: She tried to dabble in Maganism, but then she tried

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Speaker 1: to pull back. That's actually frustrated some people in Trump world,

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Speaker 1: so that that that tense relationship really set her back

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Speaker 1: financially for a while. Organizationally, Trump's on board kind of,

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Speaker 1: but not with the enthusiasm that she needed. It's ironic

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Speaker 1: because her she sort of rose on the scene of

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Speaker 1: Virginia politics sort of from the outside by being one

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Speaker 1: of the early MAGA supporters. That's arguably how she ended

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Speaker 1: up the nominee for Lieutenant governor the first time. But

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Speaker 1: she really did. She tried to look into the future

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Speaker 1: and and didn't and and basically picked the wrong picked

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Speaker 1: the wrong path. And she's assumed that Trump would be

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Speaker 1: in the rearview mirror, and now he's back, and in

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Speaker 1: some ways that that made her path to the governorship

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Speaker 1: nearly blocked. And you could see that she's vacillated. She's

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Speaker 1: trying to take advantage of the scandal involving the Attorney

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Speaker 1: general nominee, the Democrat j Jones, and those awful texts

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Speaker 1: that he that have been exposed to what he said

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Speaker 1: about a Republican couple of Republican politicians. She's tried to

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Speaker 1: use it hasn't quite worked. You know, she's she's not

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Speaker 1: been as accessible as Youngkin came across. She kind of

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Speaker 1: you know, she walks into every interview a bit defensive,

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Speaker 1: you know, doesn't doesn't know how to sort of let

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Speaker 1: water roll off a duck's back type of mindset. Right,

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Speaker 1: and voters sort of see that, right, And Virginia again,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to reward grievance. Virginia's kind of an

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Speaker 1: optimistic state, so they don't want a ba humbug candidate.

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Speaker 1: Bah Humbug candidates haven't done well in Virginia. You've got

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Speaker 1: to be sort of sunny side up, right, Terry mccalloffe

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Speaker 1: sunny side up, Glenn Youngkin sunny side yep, Terry sound

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Speaker 1: Terry wasn't Terry in that race against yunkin. Youngkin was

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Speaker 1: the more optimistic guy, right, And and so there's something

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Speaker 1: about it. And Spamberger's tried to run a more upbeat race,

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Speaker 1: and series is not run a very upbeat race. And

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Speaker 1: so I know that that seems like a shallow way

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Speaker 1: to look at things, but there's a pattern here. You know,

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Speaker 1: George Allen was a Sonny was the sunnier candidate when you.

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Speaker 1: In ninety three, Mary suit Terry was sort of, you know,

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Speaker 1: tough law enforcement, who's trying to be the first woman governor.

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Speaker 1: And that's not I shouldn't get lost on everybody, right,

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Speaker 1: No matter what, Virginia is going to elect the first

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Speaker 1: woman governor. That's that's not an insignificant glass ceiling they've

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Speaker 1: Virginia Democrats thought they were going to do this in

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety three with their nominee at the time, Mary

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Speaker 1: suit Terry, who was up at the time. It was

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Speaker 1: seen as a pretty big upset when George Allen topped

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Speaker 1: her back in that ninety three race. So I think

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Speaker 1: the question with Spamberger is what's the margin If it's

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Speaker 1: five or less, I don't think she she's going to

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Speaker 1: bring all three the other two down ballot candidates with them.

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Speaker 1: Virginia elects three races statewide, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

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Speaker 1: What's been interesting is that Virginia hasn't split their ticket

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Speaker 1: for those big three races since two thousand and five.

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Speaker 1: So in two thousand and nine it was a Republican suite,

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Speaker 1: twenty thirteen a Democratic sweep, twenty seventeen a Democratic sweep.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, a Republican sweep. Before the J.

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Speaker 1: Jones textan controversy, it looked like Democrats were on their

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Speaker 1: way to a suite. I'm not so convinced. I think

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Speaker 1: there's a If there's a split ticket result, it's the

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Speaker 1: attorney general's race. It's more likely to be split tickets

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Speaker 1: the one place where an incumbent is seeking reelection while

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Speaker 1: governors can't seek reelection. Attorney's general and lieutenant governors can.

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Speaker 1: Believe it or not, it's just the governor that is

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Speaker 1: term limited to a single term. That you could run

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Speaker 1: a second for a second term, just not consecutively. In Virginia,

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Speaker 1: by the way, Terry mcculloff attempted that and did not

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Speaker 1: win obviously in twenty one. So it's a Miars has

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Speaker 1: totally altered as campaign in the last month as run

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Speaker 1: the type of campaign we haven't seen in the Trump

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Speaker 1: era in a long time. We haven't seen it during

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Speaker 1: the Trump era. Was much more common in the pre

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Speaker 1: Trump era, where you have a candidate kind of running

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Speaker 1: in enemy territory. Right, Miris is a conservative Republican running

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Speaker 1: in a light blue state and he's trying to win

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Speaker 1: over some light blue voters. So he's been he's been

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Speaker 1: running ads that say, hey, Abigail S. Bamberger can't endorse

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Speaker 1: j Jones, you don't have to either, write noting some

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Speaker 1: highlights from her debate, because she has not reindorsed him.

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Speaker 1: She has essentially said it is up to every voter

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Speaker 1: to make their own decision. Not exactly a not exactly

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Speaker 1: the biggest what you might call it reassurance if you will, right,

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Speaker 1: I don't. It's not even clear who she's going to

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Speaker 1: vote for on that ballot. And if i'm her, I'm

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Speaker 1: a little I'm a mixed bag. Right. You want politically,

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Speaker 1: you want to be seen as powerful enough victor that

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Speaker 1: you brought as many Democrats across the finish line as

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Speaker 1: you can, that you'll bring State Assembly Democrats across the

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Speaker 1: finish line and increase the Democratic majority in the state Assembly.

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Speaker 1: You know, you'll be given credit for whatever victory the

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Speaker 1: Lieutenant governor has. You could be given credit if you

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Speaker 1: drag Jones off the finish line. But for governing, is

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Speaker 1: j Jones going to be an effective attorney general? And

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Speaker 1: is Jay Jones going to be a problem for Governor Spamberger?

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Speaker 1: I think it's one of those, is she secretly better

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Speaker 1: off if me rs wins, even if that, you know,

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Speaker 1: might complicate things every once in a while when it

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Speaker 1: comes to governing. It's something I've pondered. You'll never get

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Speaker 1: an honest answer out of any of the politicians on

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Speaker 1: this one, because there's no upside to give anybody an

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Speaker 1: honest answer on that one. But if if I were Spamburger,

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Speaker 1: I think life's a little bit easier if I don't

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Speaker 1: have to constantly answer for that J. Jones controversy, even

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Speaker 1: if it has nothing to do with me. But if

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Speaker 1: he's sitting there as a sitting attorney, In general, it

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Speaker 1: strikes me as something that doesn't ever completely go away.

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Speaker 1: It may fade, but it won't completely go away. There's

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Speaker 1: a reason results matter more than promises, just like there's

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Speaker 1: a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury law firm.

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Speaker 1: For the last thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five

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Speaker 1: billion dollars for more than half a million clients. It

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Speaker 1: includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing, just

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Speaker 1: hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

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Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, You need somebody

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Speaker 1: Slash podcast or now Pound Law Pound five two nine

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Speaker 1: law firms are not the same, So check out Morgan

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Speaker 1: and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. To me,

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Speaker 1: the what we're what we're what? The real question is

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Speaker 1: Spamberger win by enough to drag everybody across the finish line?

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Speaker 1: And if Mirs wins, does he win because Democrats there

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Speaker 1: are a handful of Democrats that cross the line and

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Speaker 1: vote for him as a Republican or does he win

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Speaker 1: because a whole bunch of Democrats decide not to vote

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Speaker 1: in the attorney general race. So two things to watch

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Speaker 1: for an election night. Is the drop off number? How

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Speaker 1: big is the drop off number? And it's not the

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Speaker 1: drop off number from governored ag to me, It'll be

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Speaker 1: the drop off number from LG to A G because

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Speaker 1: it goes in that order in the ballot. And so

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Speaker 1: you'll see people vote for the first two. What's the

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Speaker 1: gap and that's the one. I'm curious, but there's always

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Speaker 1: a gap. How big is it that will well, we'll

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Speaker 1: tell us a lot a few bellweather things to watch

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Speaker 1: in Virginia House of Delegates, for what it's worth, the

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Speaker 1: Virginia House of Delegates, there's been an interesting correlation where

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Speaker 1: in years that Democrats add seats to the House of

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Speaker 1: Delegates in this odd numbered year two thousand and five,

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Speaker 1: two thousand and seven, twenty seventeen. A year later, Democrats

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Speaker 1: also gain seats in Congress in six, eight and eighteen.

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Speaker 1: And it works the other way when Republicans have picked

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Speaker 1: up seats in the House of Delegates in the state

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Speaker 1: Assembly here in Virginia, they did it one oh nine

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Speaker 1: and in twenty one. Well guess what, it foreshadowed Republican

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Speaker 1: gains in the House overall nationally in two, in ten,

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Speaker 1: and in twenty two. So Virginia has been a fairly

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Speaker 1: reliable bell weather. It's not perfect, you know, there's always

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Speaker 1: exceptions to the rule, but there is a general trend

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Speaker 1: line that Virginia does help you at least see which

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Speaker 1: way the playing field will be tilting in twenty sixth

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Speaker 1: I know we have a whole bunch of redist and

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Speaker 1: crap to deal with, but that is I think that

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Speaker 1: that is in some ways what to pick from from there.

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Speaker 1: Let's go up the coast a little bit New Jersey.

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Speaker 1: A few things about unique about New Jersey and why

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Speaker 1: I've not I'm surprised that over the last week or

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Speaker 1: two we've actually seen Mikey Cheryl's lead. By the way,

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Speaker 1: it's notable. Abagail Spamberg or Mikey Cheryl, the two Democratic

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Speaker 1: nominees for Virginia and New Jersey governor, both won swing

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Speaker 1: districts in twenty eighteen. This twenty eighteen House Democratic class

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Speaker 1: has already produced two US Senators in the House class

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, Alyssa Slockin and Michigan. She won a

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Speaker 1: House seat in eighteen, just won a Senate seat. Andy

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Speaker 1: Kim won a House seat in eighteen. Just won a

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Speaker 1: Senate seat in twenty four. Colin all Red's already run

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Speaker 1: for a Senate seat. He won a House seat in eighteen.

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Speaker 1: He's running again for a Senate seat. You got deb Holland,

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Speaker 1: who won a House seat in eighteen, served in Biden's cabinets,

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Speaker 1: now ring for governor New Mexico. So it's you could

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Speaker 1: have a Sharise Davis who won an eighteen in Kansas.

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Speaker 1: If she gets redistricted out, she pretty much is guaranteed

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Speaker 1: that she'd run for the Senate in Kansas there. So

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Speaker 1: it's turning into an interesting farm farm team class the

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, particularly this next generation of women leaders right

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Speaker 1: slacking Spamberger, Cheryl Scharise Davis. So it's certainly certainly something

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Speaker 1: to watch there. For what it's worth, I think Cheryl's

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Speaker 1: run a bit of a less of a She hasn't

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Speaker 1: been a pure front runner. She had a more contested primary.

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Speaker 1: She did have to worry about candidates running to her

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Speaker 1: left during the primary, so she had to watch her

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Speaker 1: left flank a little bit. Spamberger didn't have to worry

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Speaker 1: about that, right she early on it looked like she'd

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Speaker 1: have a primary. The field eventually cleared, so she never

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Speaker 1: had to do deal with any of the progressive centrist

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Speaker 1: splits that are taking place in other parts of the country.

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Speaker 1: Kind of reminds you of someone and Virginia politics, right,

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Speaker 1: Glenn Youngkin got to avoid a MAGA primary and that

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Speaker 1: helped him a lot in the general election, allowed him

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Speaker 1: to be anybody, be whatever you wanted him to be.

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Speaker 1: And I think Spamburger's had that. Cheryl's had a little

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Speaker 1: less of that. She's also running to succeed a less

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Speaker 1: popular Democratic governor. He's not as unpopular as like a

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Speaker 1: John Corsign when he ran for re election and lost

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Speaker 1: to Chris Christy or Jim Floydo when he ran for

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Speaker 1: a reelection and lost to Christy weapon back in ninety three,

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Speaker 1: but he's not super popular either. Fac Murphy almost lost

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Speaker 1: to the Republican nominee this time. Jack Chidarelli was the

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Speaker 1: Republican nominee in twenty one and came much closer than

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Speaker 1: the pole set. And in fact, that's something I would

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Speaker 1: just caution you. I know, all the polls are showing

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Speaker 1: Cheryl with a fairly commanding lead, not quite as big

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Speaker 1: as Spamburger's lead, but pretty substantial. New Jersey's notorious for

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Speaker 1: underpolling Republicans specifically. Part of it is just it's a

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Speaker 1: tough state to to sample. It's tough state to poll,

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Speaker 1: always has been. So this is not a it's not

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Speaker 1: like there's bad pollsters. It's just a tough it's harder

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Speaker 1: to get a hold of people. It's a transient state

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Speaker 1: filled with commuters, hard to get to commuters. It's just

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Speaker 1: so a lot of polling is modeling, and people just

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Speaker 1: if you don't model it right. Our friends, my college,

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Speaker 1: my former colleagues. Over an NBC noted that in polls

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Speaker 1: that have shown Phil Murphy, the outgoing governor, with an

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Speaker 1: approval rating or a favorable rating in the thirties, the

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Speaker 1: race has been somewhere only one to three points. Whenever

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Speaker 1: a poll has shown Murphy's approval rating or favorable rating

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Speaker 1: in the mid forties, it has shown share with a

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Speaker 1: bigger leads. So you know which which electorate is correct?

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Speaker 1: Which electorate shows up? Donald Trump certainly improved in New

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Speaker 1: Jersey in twenty four than his performance in either sixteen

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Speaker 1: or twenty. Do Trump voter show up? Do mainstream Republicans

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Speaker 1: feel more comfortable? Do swing voters? You know the problem?

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Speaker 1: I have with assuming with getting titter rally across finish

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Speaker 1: line is he's got to win some Harris voter who

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Speaker 1: doesn't like Trump, and I you know how many of

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Speaker 1: them are there, so we'll see. But one other notable fact.

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Speaker 1: The last three successful Republicans to win the governorship in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey all did it with less than fifty percent.

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Speaker 1: Whitman the first time won with less than fifty, Christy

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Speaker 1: the first time one with less than fifty, and Tom

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Speaker 1: Kine won the first time with less than fifty. Keep

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Speaker 1: an eye on those third party candidates. I think the

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Speaker 1: path for Chiitdarelli is to make forty seven or forty

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Speaker 1: eight percent of winning number. I don't think he can

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Speaker 1: get to fifty, but if he can, if five, that's

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Speaker 1: if somewhere between four and six percent of the electorate

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Speaker 1: vote third party, he could have a chance. In New

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Speaker 1: York City. The story's mom, Donnie, I think the only

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Speaker 1: mystery is whether he clears fifty or not. I'm in

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Speaker 1: an interview with Garrett Graft that'll be appearing in this

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Speaker 1: podcast feed the before the election, but not in today's episode.

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Speaker 1: He thinks it's possible we're underestimating Mam Donni and he

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Speaker 1: gets closer to sixty, not only clears fifty, but gets

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Speaker 1: closer to sixty. I'm not sure I buy that hot take.

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Speaker 1: But the hot take I have is I think it's

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Speaker 1: possible Curtsely while the Republican nominee ends up ahead, finishing

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Speaker 1: second instead of Cuomo. The point is is, I think

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of fluidity in this in this race, still,

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Speaker 1: is there an excited base of mam Donni's that shows

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Speaker 1: up and overwhelms things? Could Cuomo's. The difficulty to find

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Speaker 1: Cuomo even on the ballot, you have to go way

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Speaker 1: down if you look at the ballot, but it goes

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Speaker 1: like Mamdanni Curtisely while the Republican nominee and Mamdani working

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Speaker 1: families party and then you got to keep going until

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Speaker 1: you find Cuomo's name on the ballot. How much a

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Speaker 1: drop off effect that is? I will tell you this.

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Speaker 1: There is a history of candidates running on third party lines,

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Speaker 1: either as independents or third party candidates, who underperform their

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Speaker 1: their poll number, while major party candidates who are polling

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Speaker 1: lower like Courtessly, while the Republican nominee end up doing

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Speaker 1: better than what they were polling, and part of it

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Speaker 1: is that there's a lot of people are just habit

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Speaker 1: voters and they going, oh, hey, honey, who do we

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Speaker 1: vote for? We're Republicans, right, not pull the Republican ticket.

426
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: So the point is is, I think we all think

427
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: there's that what we're seeing in the polling is probably

428
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: only directionally correct, but not necessarily numerically correct. And there's

429
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: I think of you know, there's a variety of ways

430
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: Mam Donnie wins that creates different storylines. Ma'm Donnie getting

431
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: the sixty percent is a real message to the entire

432
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: Democratic Party and probably freaks out the leadership in ways

433
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: we haven't seen yet. I'm Donnie getting less than fifty

434
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: percent reassures a whole bunch of Democrats that if a

435
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 1: Democratic Socialists can't get a majority in New York City,

436
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 1: where Canada, democratic Socialists get a majority, and frankly, you

437
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: can't get fifty percent, he's probably gonna have a hard

438
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: time governing because he will automatically. There hasn't been a

439
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: mayor elected in New York City with less than fifty

440
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: percent of the vote since John Lindsay in the late sixties,

441
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: So that stuff matters, right, that's the difference between saying

442
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: you have a mandate or not. So I think those

443
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: are the ways I'm watching those three races. We're also

444
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 1: you know, if I will say this, I think a

445
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 1: Democratic sweep of the two state wides, plus the victory

446
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: in California, which seems pretty assured now with the new map,

447
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 1: and avoiding any upset in the retention races of the

448
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: judges in Pennsylvania where conservatives are trying to see if

449
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: they can house to do a vote no on one

450
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 1: of the retention races for the Supreme Court in Pennsylvania.

451
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,919
Speaker 1: I do think that foreshadows that twenty six will set up.

452
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 1: It's a demo, it's a democratic gear. The question is

453
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: how good of a year could it be for them?

454
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: Anything less than that right chedda ally winning New Jersey Boy,

455
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 1: that to me would foreshadow that this is going to

456
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 1: be a more knife fight type of midterm. Then we

457
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 1: realize that we're still pretty evenly divided. You know, a

458
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: strong Mamdani victory could really complicate a lot of democratic

459
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: primaries and really start to see more progressive feel empowered.

460
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: And then that and you just have more contentious primaries

461
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: in the left, which could create problems in general elections,

462
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: and the way that you had contentious primaries on the

463
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: right during Trump's first term and even in the latest

464
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, which those eventually would cause problems in

465
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 1: general elections right where Republicans would lose generals that they

466
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: had they not had the bad primary, they would have won.

467
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: You know, are there races like that on the Democratic

468
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 1: side if this happened. So that's why what happens here

469
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 1: will tell us. We'll give us sort of a few

470
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: of the directionally, let us know where things are headed.

471
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,159
Speaker 1: Where's things headed inside the fight for the soul of

472
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, where's the nation as a whole? Right?

473
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 1: How do we feel about incumbents in general? We've seen some,

474
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: you know, we are It's not a great year for

475
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: incumbent mayors, right, Eric Adams is out. The mayor of

476
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: Seattle got put into a runoff. He could lose. That's

477
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: something we're going to be following in our election night special.

478
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 1: The mayor of Pittsburgh already lost in a primary. So

479
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,719
Speaker 1: there's there's you know, by the way, Seattle, I think

480
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 1: it's re elected a mayor and five tries. They keep

481
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: having new mayors. So you know, it's not quite a

482
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: big enough trend to say, hey, this is Nashville, but

483
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 1: you feel the there's a there's certainly this isn't an

484
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 1: incumbent friendly environment. It's another reason why I think I'm

485
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: a little you know why. I think Cheryl has just

486
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 1: slightly worse odds to win than Spamburger. She's replacing a

487
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 1: Republican administration, where Cheryl is is one to succeed a

488
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 1: fellow Democratic administration. I just think her jobs a little

489
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: bit harder in an environment like this. But the important

490
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: thing to realize about these elections is they're not local

491
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 1: elections that only impact things locally. There's a lot to

492
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: learn from them nationally, and they will. They will tell

493
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 1: us something about where things are headed. So come spend

494
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 1: election night with me and all of my dorky and

495
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: nerd friends that just love politics, love campaigns, love dissecting

496
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: election results, love trying to figure out what this means

497
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: for reading the tea leads going forward. It's my top

498
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: five lists of the week, top top and I have

499
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,479
Speaker 1: a fun, fun little one that I want to do.

500
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: It's I'm a history buff. I'm a political junkie. So

501
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: what does that mean? I love sort of keeping track

502
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: of science. Right. I guess today in the modern language,

503
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: it would be the Neippo babies. Right. You know, politics

504
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: in this country has been a fan to shoot. Politics

505
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: in every country's a family business these days, right, But

506
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: politics is a family business. It always has been in

507
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: this country. You know. Our second president had a son

508
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: who became what the eighth president, nineth seventh president? Uh,

509
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: you know in in uh in quincy q as the

510
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,479
Speaker 1: colloquialism was back then. And I think when we got

511
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 1: George W. Bush, if you will, So, you know, for

512
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: a for a country that revolted against a monarchy, we

513
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: weirdly love our political dynasties. It's only been recently that

514
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: a Freulinghausen hasn't represented something in New Jersey going all

515
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: the way back to the revolution. So to say that

516
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: we don't love political science some but but in this

517
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 1: day and age of distrust of institutions, frustration with the

518
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: status quo, not happy with elites, Uh, it hasn't been

519
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 1: a good time to be, you know, a member of

520
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: a so called political dynasty. Right. We had, uh, Joe

521
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,479
Speaker 1: Kennedy the third lose a primary in the state of

522
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 1: Massachusetts to Ed Markey. You had a Hillary Clinton lose.

523
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 1: You had ah, you had a Uh which which Bush?

524
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: We had a we had a Bush? Oh my god,

525
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: I'm trying to blank on Jeb Bush's oldest son. You

526
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: have Jeb Bush Jr. And who was the other Bush? Shoot? Sorry,

527
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 1: you got to edit here. You gotta edit here. Don't

528
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: screw me. You gotta edit here, George p. That's what

529
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:07,719
Speaker 1: it was, George P. R. The last decade hasn't been

530
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: great for political science, right. You've had a Clinton spouse

531
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: not be able to win the presidency. You've had multiple

532
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: Bushes lose out on promotions. Jeb wanted to run for

533
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: the presidency. His son, George P. Try to win a

534
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 1: statewide office in Texas. It didn't a promotion there, he

535
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: didn't get it. You've had a Kennedy not be able

536
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: to win a primary in Massachusetts. So this is not

537
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: the ideal time to run as a scion. But I

538
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: thought it would be fun to have a top five

539
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 1: political families who've got who've got members trying to keep

540
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: the family legacy alive in twenty twenty six. So my

541
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: top five is most likely where you'll see a scion

542
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:55,239
Speaker 1: win to least likely. And I'm going to start with

543
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: my first two are going to be states, not individuals.

544
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: Because these two state races have multiple political scions running.

545
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 1: We're gonna start with main governor. Main governor has the

546
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: son of Angus Bush. Excuse me, the son of Angus King,

547
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 1: who's the US Senator running for governor, the son of

548
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: Congresswoman Shelley Pingree, excuse me, the daughter of Congresswoman Shelley

549
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: Pingree running for governor, Hannah Pingree. She's already herself served

550
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 1: in the state House. And then in the Republican side,

551
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: there's a first cousin of George W. Bush running for governor,

552
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: Jonathan Bush. So in this one race for governor, the

553
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 1: Democratic primary features Angus King the third again he's running

554
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: as a Democrat, even though his father has served both

555
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: as governor and Senate as an independent, not as a Democrat,

556
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 1: but his son is running as a Democrat. He founded,

557
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: just so you know what he's been doing over the years,

558
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: he founded Peaks Renewables, and he announced his run for governor.

559
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: Bet He calls himself a pragmatic energy business leader, and

560
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: he wants to focus the state on clean power. Hannah

561
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: Pingry the daughter of Congresswoman Shelley Pingree. She served in

562
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: the Main House. She worked for the governor Governor Janet

563
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 1: Mills for a while, so she herself wants to run

564
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 1: for governor. Both of them are obviously going to have

565
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: access to decent donors and will be quite competitive running

566
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: against each other. We'll see if if neither one of

567
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: them win their primary, because somebody is able to say, hey,

568
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: you know, should somebody else who's not related to a

569
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: politician have a chance. But on the Republican side, you'll

570
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 1: have Jonathan Bush, who's not a big Trump guy, but

571
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: he has been trying to sort of straddle the fence.

572
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: You know. He talks about you know, he goes to

573
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: blue areas and tells them things about Trump that they

574
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 1: think that they might like, and goes to red areas

575
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: and reminds them of stuff that he thinks Democrats do

576
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: better for some of the red areas. So who knows,

577
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 1: but my goodness, when you have three shots in one

578
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 1: race to elect somebody from a famous political family, I

579
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: think you get to share the number one slot up

580
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: most likely to elected political scion in twenty twenty six,

581
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: so main governor number two on the list is Georgia's Senate. Specifically,

582
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: it's the Republican primary for Georgia Senate that features not

583
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: one political scion but too sort of I'll show you

584
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: where I'm going. So Mike Collins is the son of

585
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: former Congressman Matt Collins. Mike himself has been in Congress,

586
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: you know, since twenty twenty three. But obviously he got

587
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: the he got the bug for politics. Matt Collins first

588
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 1: got elected to Congress back in nineteen ninety three and

589
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 1: served all the way through two thousand and five. So

590
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 1: but that's obviously where Mike got the bug. So we

591
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: shall see, and he's certainly a competitive candidate. The other

592
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: person that I'm qualifying here as a quote unquote scion

593
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: is actually Derek Dooley, the son of former Georgia Bulldogs

594
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame college football Hall of Fame coach Vince Dooley. So,

595
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: while Vince Dooley never actually held political office, some would argue,

596
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: if you're the head football coach of Georgia, it may

597
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: be a tougher job than being the governor of Georgia

598
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: because of the expectations to succeed or so high there.

599
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: So Derek Dewley, being a Senate candidate and son of

600
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: a famous football coach I think I'm going to say

601
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: qualifies a bit in the scion category. So number one

602
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: most likely main governor, Number two most likely Georgia Senate.

603
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: Number three on my list is bo Bye, and Bobi

604
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: wants to follow pretty much in the same footsteps that

605
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: his father did, which is start at a lower rung

606
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 1: statewide office and slowly work your way up. Bo By,

607
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 1: who is the grandson of Birch By, the son of

608
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 1: Evan By, filed to run for Indiana Secretary of State,

609
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:47,400
Speaker 1: a job that we opened in twenty six. This is

610
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 1: an office I believe that Pete Budajet attempted to run

611
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,879
Speaker 1: for and didn't win. It's look, Indiana is a red state,

612
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,439
Speaker 1: but it's not a dark red state. The Bye name

613
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 1: does mean something to some people, doesn't mean enough to

614
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: enough people to win a race. Look in a in

615
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: a slightly in a in a in a year where

616
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 1: the breeze will be blowing a bit more favorably to

617
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 1: the left then the right. A familiar name among swing

618
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 1: voters who you know, didn't think By was sort of

619
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: a woke live Democrat, right that isn't the Bye brand.

620
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: I think, Bo Bye, you can't you know this? This

621
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 1: feels like the right entry point if you're trying to

622
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: sort of dabble your toe in politics, and if you've

623
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 1: got a brand name like by so bow Bye number

624
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 1: three on my list, keep an eye on that number four.

625
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: It's hard to have a scion list of top five

626
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 1: political famous, famous political dynasties that might see things continue

627
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: with a new generation if you don't have somebody connected

628
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 1: to the Kennedy. So Jack Slosburgh comes in at five. He's,

629
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 1: of course the son of Caroline Kennedy and the grandson

630
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: of course President John F. Kennedy. He's got a very

631
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 1: popular TikTok feed that is popular on the left. He

632
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: is officially exploring a run for Congress. I believe he

633
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 1: wants to run for Jerry Nadler seat in Manhattan. Should

634
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: be interesting. I think, Look, his cousin, Joe Kennedy the

635
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: third couldn't win a primary in Massachusetts. Right, that's got

636
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: to be you know it is, No, you don't just

637
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: get to walk into these seats anymore, the way Kennedy's

638
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 1: used to be able to sort of walk in and

639
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: carpet bag their way into things. You're gonna have to

640
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 1: work hard for it. But I one would argue, Schlossburg

641
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: already has a pretty decent profile in his social media

642
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: profile in particular, and has been a, you know, been

643
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:53,760
Speaker 1: a pretty successful progressive influencer. So I wouldn't I would.

644
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: I think he's certainly earned earned the opportunity to be

645
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 1: a number number five in that number four in that list.

646
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: So we got main governor, you got Georgia governor, you

647
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 1: got we got excuse me, we got Maine governor, Georgia

648
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: Senate Bobie in Indiana, Jack Sloshburg, New York City. That's

649
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 1: where he's thinking about running for Congress. And then number

650
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 1: five is Chip Keaty. Now, Chip's gonna He's the son

651
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:26,760
Speaker 1: of Frank Keating, who was governor of Oklahoma from ninety

652
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: four to two. That's a long time ago, right, Keating

653
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 1: hasn't been on the ballot in that sense, Right, Frank

654
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:36,399
Speaker 1: Keating hadn't been on the ballot in a while. It's

655
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 1: a long way, almost an entire generation, if you will.

656
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: So look it's you know, he's dabbled in Chips dabbled

657
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: in politics a little bit, but that's going to be

658
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: if look in Oklahoma, you win the nomination for governor

659
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: because the Kevin stit's going to be term limited, so

660
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: it's an open race for the governorship. He did service

661
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: secretary of Public Safety, so he's got he's got his

662
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 1: own he's got his own career in politics a little bit.

663
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: But if he does win that primary, he's going to

664
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: be the favorite to win the race. You have to

665
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 1: put him in there a number five. And then at

666
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: this point i'd probably put as honorable mention is I

667
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 1: think Kevin White is what I would put there. He

668
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 1: is the son, excuse me, Andrew White. Andrew White is

669
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 1: the son of former Texas Governor Mark White. And Andrew

670
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: White's running for Texas governor. That's an uphill battle. That's

671
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,359
Speaker 1: why it doesn't crack my top five, But I thought

672
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: I would throw it out there. We'll be keeping track.

673
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 1: So there it is top five political dynasties that may

674
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: have a chance to extend their dynastic lives in the

675
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,919
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. You've got three shots in Maine, two

676
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 1: shots in Georgie. If you count the duelies as sort

677
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 1: of as political and sports type of dynasty of sorts, Kennedy,

678
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 1: a Kennedy derivative in New York City, the son and

679
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 1: grandson of birch By and Evan By in Indiana, and

680
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: maybe the son of Frank Keening and Oklahoma, or the

681
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: son of Mark White in Texas. Always fun to keep

682
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 1: track of those things as well. All right, with that,

683
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 1: let's do a few questions, ask Chuck. All right, first

684
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,359
Speaker 1: question comes from Ryan parts unknown. He says, hey, check.

685
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 1: We always hear that most Americans grand certain issues bortions

686
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 1: and riots, border policy and so on, usually based on polls.

687
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: But what if instead of polls, we had televised debates

688
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 1: featuring skilled debaters, not politicians who had to stick to

689
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: verified facts, with a live audience voting like American Idol

690
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 1: could be a new way to gauge what people truly

691
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 1: think once they've heard both sides argue and honesty love

692
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: the pod. You know that's interesting, Ryan, I think that's

693
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 1: what our friends at Sea Span are hoping ceasefire becomes.

694
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 1: But let me posit. You know what I thought of

695
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 1: when I read your question? What if you designed sort

696
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: of the best the best briefed AI candidate to debate

697
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 1: a topic pro and then the best briefed AI candidate

698
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: to debate the topic con and that was it was

699
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 1: almost like, here, here's a prototype in a perfect world

700
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 1: what a good debate would look like, and you can

701
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 1: kind of use AI to Is this a good way

702
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:28,919
Speaker 1: to use AI or not? On first blush, like I said,

703
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 1: the first the first thing I thought of is what

704
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 1: if we aid this just had a really good person

705
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: making the case for abortion rights and a really good,

706
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: smartly brief person making the case against and had that

707
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 1: in a debate format sort of with a very sort

708
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: of you know, neutral, dispassionate moderator. Is that a good

709
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: way to use AI as a tool? Right? What does

710
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 1: a prototypical debate on this topic look like? What would

711
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: a fantasy debate between two well educated people on tariffs

712
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 1: look like about tariff policy? I don't know. You actually

713
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 1: got me thinking that maybe we ought to just create

714
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: an entire sort of AI Wikipedia of do you want

715
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 1: to see, you know, two women debating this issue, to

716
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: men debating this issue, to crasshoppers debating this issue. But

717
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 1: what you really have is it's it's really you know,

718
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 1: sort of AI trained, best available way you could do it.

719
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 1: Your vehicle for showing the debate could be a human

720
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: like being, could be an animal or a desk lamp, whatever, Right,

721
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: I'm being some facetious and some not here put it

722
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: this way. I'm curious enough to see if I could

723
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:52,800
Speaker 1: create a really like you know, imagine a a really

724
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 1: good debater, two of them going back and forth on

725
00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 1: a variety of issues that seem to divide us. Would

726
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: it be persuasive to people? Right? Would a debate that

727
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,839
Speaker 1: was filled with really good substance and no zingers penetrate

728
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: the mind or would people not hear anything that was

729
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: said if it didn't have a zinger. So there's a

730
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 1: lot of things that I'd almost want to test drive,

731
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: and this is a way where AI allows you to

732
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: test drive it. I haven't decided whether this is a

733
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 1: good or bad thing, but it's the first thing I

734
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 1: thought of when I read your question, Ryan, so appreciate it.

735
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 1: By the way, you could do this right still have

736
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 1: your robot animated AI version of these debates and have

737
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: people vote on it who won. And I guess the

738
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: question would be would it really be more reflective of

739
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 1: what people already thought or would it be reflective of

740
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,320
Speaker 1: what they heard in the conversation? That's always really hard

741
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 1: to fully get. Next question comes from Greg Hey. He

742
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 1: goes Hey is an IO and expat. I currently live

743
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: in Pure Illinois. It was great to listen to reta heart.

744
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 1: I had to check a bit about the Fox News

745
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: comment because when I visit family, it is always on.

746
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 1: As you have mentioned before, the Democratic Party is having

747
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 1: an identity crisis. Would be better for the state level

748
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: party to develop its own identity separate from the DNC. Yes,

749
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 1: A thousand times. Yes. I'll get to an example in

750
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: a minute. For example, if the Iowa Democrats address local

751
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 1: issues soybean hogs increased cancer rates in the failing educational system,

752
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,399
Speaker 1: this could be a two fold benefit. The state level

753
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 1: parties could almost silence the GOP culture war messaging. The

754
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: DNC can develop messaging and platform planks that could be

755
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 1: used to better reach rural America. Right. Yes, and I

756
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: would argue the state parties used to be a lot

757
00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 1: more independent from the national party. And the best most

758
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 1: recent example comes out of the state of Minnesota. Wasn't

759
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,280
Speaker 1: that You know? Minnesota's Democratic Party used to be referred

760
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 1: to as the Democratic Farm Labor Party, and they would

761
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 1: proudly say no, no, no, no, we're affiliated with the DNC,

762
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,440
Speaker 1: but we are our own identity. We are the Democratic

763
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 1: Farm Labor Party. And the Republicans in Minnesota were known

764
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 1: as the Independent Publican Party of Minnesota. Again, it was

765
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: both state parties they were, and I feel like it

766
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: did help their brand seem distinctive from the national party.

767
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, you'd see it was a

768
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: different flavor of Minnesota Democrat and a different flavor of

769
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 1: Minnesota Republican that would win statewide elections. So I absolutely

770
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 1: believe this is needed. I think that. I mean, just

771
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 1: look at you see many a Democratic group is saying,

772
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 1: you know, don't even run as a Democrat if the

773
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 1: brand is that bad in your state, go run as

774
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: an independent. See Idaho, South Dakota, Nebraska. Right, We're seeing

775
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 1: pretty strong candidacies developing there among people that in a

776
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: if we had a normal sort of competitive two party

777
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: system in all fifty states, they'd probably be the Democratic nominees.

778
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: But the Democratic, the national Democratic brand is what the

779
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:53,760
Speaker 1: brand of the state party has become in those states,

780
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 1: even when they don't want to be but state you

781
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 1: can't differentiate if you don't have your own source of

782
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 1: money and your own sort of source of leadership, and

783
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: that's I think been the struggle is that too many

784
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 1: national donors worry about the national races. They some of

785
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 1: these state parties need state based sugar daddies and mommies.

786
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,399
Speaker 1: In Iowa, there used to be and has been some

787
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,760
Speaker 1: It's less so in some of these other red states.

788
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,800
Speaker 1: But I think it would really behoove the Democrats to

789
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 1: let their state parties create their own brand identities. Andy

790
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: Busheer would be better off being able to say he's

791
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 1: a Kentucky Democrat and have that means something to people,

792
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: But I'm not sure that's going to be the case.

793
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: If he runs for president in twenty eight. You know,

794
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: he's going to make the case that hey, being a

795
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: Kentucky Democrats different than being a national Democrat. And I

796
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 1: might buy that as a political reporter, but I don't

797
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 1: know if voters will totally buy it completely. So but anyway,

798
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,719
Speaker 1: the point is, one hundred percent agree with you. I

799
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:58,760
Speaker 1: absolutely think this is the way to, you know, essentially

800
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 1: decentralize the right. Decentralized the Democratic Party. The Republican Party

801
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 1: used to be the party that wanted to decentralize right.

802
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: In some ways, maybe the Democratic Party can win over

803
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 1: some of those voters by trying to be more state

804
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 1: and local based. Next question comes from Keith j which

805
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 1: I really really wish your name. I hope your last

806
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 1: name is Jackson, because I'd love to have some Keith

807
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 1: Jackson and an excuse to talk about the grend daddy

808
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 1: of them all. Sorry, Illo check. My respect for you

809
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 1: continues in your new endeavor. Thank you. I hope I

810
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,839
Speaker 1: didn't lose your respect with my lane Keith Jackson impersonation there. Keith,

811
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 1: you have often said you are a short term pessimist,

812
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 1: long term optimist. Yes, would you define your terms? How

813
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 1: long do you think a short term? Approximately? How long

814
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 1: is long term? Not trying to pin you down too much,

815
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 1: just want a better idea of what you mean. Many thanks.

816
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 1: So what I mean is I don't think that we

817
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 1: solve this in the next election cycle or two. You know,

818
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: I'll give you the sort of the dark example I

819
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 1: use In nineteen thirty nine, I think I would have

820
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,520
Speaker 1: described I'd like to think I would have described our

821
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: situation in America even as short term pessimistic, long term optimistic. Right,

822
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 1: our economy was still shaky, things were, you know, we

823
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 1: saw that our allies were in you know, things weren't

824
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 1: going well in Europe, and you know, something seemed wrong.

825
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 1: You saw that there was an American Nazi Party developing

826
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:20,439
Speaker 1: all sorts of like ugly stuff. And by nineteen forty six,

827
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 1: I'd have been right that we were. Things were short

828
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 1: term pessimistic, long term optimistic. But a lot of bad

829
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:27,879
Speaker 1: stuff happened between nineteen thirty nine and nineteen forty six.

830
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: So that's a a way for me to describe. But

831
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 1: what I mean is, you know, it always takes sort

832
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 1: of us one cycle longer than you think. Right. It

833
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 1: was pretty clear when Teapot Dome and the stock market

834
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: crash and all of that was happening in the mid

835
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:48,200
Speaker 1: twenties that we probably needed a course correction in twenty eight,

836
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: but we didn't get it till thirty two, you know.

837
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:56,919
Speaker 1: So it is it just usually feels like we're one

838
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: more cycle than it should be. And so that's why,

839
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 1: you know, I imagine we got to sort of we're

840
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 1: going to have you know, it's going to take the

841
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: Republican Party. They've got to lose a couple in a

842
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: row before they're going to reform themselves. Democrats probably have

843
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: to lose one more before they reformed. That's what I

844
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 1: mean here. It's sort of like, do I think we

845
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 1: will collectively turn a corner and start start in a

846
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 1: more reform minded situation? You know, I'm a believer that

847
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: this is We're in one of those moments where to

848
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 1: get out of it, we'll do some serious amending of

849
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: the constitution. We did it around the Civil War, we

850
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 1: did it around right in and around the mess that

851
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 1: was Teapot Dome and the sort of the robber barons

852
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 1: of that era. And it feels like we're on the

853
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 1: cusp of something like that now, but it kind of

854
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 1: needs some time to happen, so you know, you know,

855
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: this is always the frustration. Right, nineteen thirty to nineteen

856
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 1: forty is a blink of an eye when you look backwards.

857
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,439
Speaker 1: But in nineteen thirty, nineteen forty was ten years away,

858
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,239
Speaker 1: and it felt like a long way away, right, But

859
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 1: it wasn't that far away if by twenty thirty six

860
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 1: were in a different path. And we've passed a couple

861
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 1: of new constitutional reforms that have set some age limits

862
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 1: and you know how old you can be to serve

863
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 1: and things like this, and you know that'd be about

864
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: ten years from now. Historically that's a small period of time,

865
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 1: but it's going to feel like a long way away

866
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 1: as you and I are discussing it now. I hope

867
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 1: that gives you some sort of sense of what I'm

868
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 1: trying to what I'm trying to communicate there when I

869
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 1: say that, you know we're not We're probably you know,

870
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:47,600
Speaker 1: not going to quote unquote elect the right people or

871
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 1: fix our incentives in the next two election cycles, but

872
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 1: in a decade we will. Next question, first time, long time,

873
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 1: Thank you. You didn't leave a name. That's okay. I've

874
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 1: been being in the pod, being in the pod, binging

875
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 1: the pod. Duh, I can't read. Sorry, Anonymous. I've been

876
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 1: been to the pod and loved your recent chat with

877
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: Mark Sany. I've been reading about a theory that market's

878
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 1: usually rides when a new president takes office, but dip

879
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 1: in the second year before rebounding. Seem true for both

880
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 1: Trump and Biden. I'm curious if that might repeat in

881
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 1: twenty six and what that means for investors. Also, as

882
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 1: a fan of your what ifs, how different do you

883
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 1: think history would have been if the US had been

884
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 1: behind in the space race. Would competition have pushed us

885
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 1: to innovate even more? You don't have to ask me

886
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 1: about that hypothetical. Go watch the movie for All Mankind movie,

887
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 1: excuse me, the TV show for All Mankind. It's on

888
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 1: Apple TV plus. It is. This is the what if scenario.

889
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 1: The Soviets beat the Americans to the moon, and basically

890
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: it's exactly the implication that losing makes us invest even

891
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 1: more and essentially, instead of a nuclear arms race that

892
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 1: we have for thirty years with the SOBA, we just

893
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 1: have a space race and we're headed to Mars by

894
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 1: the nineties because we never stopped investing in space once

895
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,960
Speaker 1: we once once we finally got to the moon. So

896
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 1: I think frankly that the folks that on that show

897
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:21,280
Speaker 1: have pretty much got the scenario correctly. We will spend

898
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:24,280
Speaker 1: money to innovate when we think it's a national security threat.

899
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 1: Once we're winning, we sometimes slow down our innovation. Right,

900
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:30,439
Speaker 1: We should have based the moon a long time ago.

901
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 1: We were there first, We were there for a long time.

902
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 1: Why did we rest on our laurels. No, we didn't

903
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 1: want to spend the money at the time. We didn't

904
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 1: think we had to spend the money we had already won.

905
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 1: It was going to be tougher to sell the American public.

906
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 1: Do you know how much time has been lost in

907
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: our ability to travel the solar system. Imagine if we

908
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 1: had based the moon twenty years ago, we've already have

909
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 1: you know, people living on the Moon. We might have

910
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 1: already found an alternative energy source. Right, but we won.

911
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: We didn't. It was tougher to make the case to

912
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: spend more money doing that when we had by the

913
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 1: time the seventies came along with stagflation. So but no,

914
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: that show made makes me. I think they make a

915
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 1: reasonable case that that's how we would have responded had

916
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 1: we lost the initial race to the Moon to the Soviets. Look,

917
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 1: I want to be we all know the long term

918
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 1: trajectory of the stock market is always up. That's just

919
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if I would go about this presidential

920
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 1: term thing. It is interesting that Trump is the first

921
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 1: president in a long time who technically the stock market

922
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 1: during his first term lost value, didn't gain value. There's

923
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: a lot of my Democratic friends like to point out

924
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 1: that it seems democrat The stock market does better overall

925
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 1: during democratic presidencies than it does during Republican presidencies, and

926
00:53:48,920 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 1: you know, the data is the data. One could make

927
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:54,839
Speaker 1: an argument is it because of policy set by Republicans

928
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 1: that do that, or is it because the confidence that

929
00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: people have in government and that's why people invest. I mean,

930
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: you can sort of argue both sides of the coin,

931
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 1: but the biggest and most important thing, you know, is

932
00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 1: the long term trajectory usually is up because of the

933
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 1: stability of the United States. What happens if the stability

934
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 1: of our economy is being questioned. So I'm just very

935
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:22,080
Speaker 1: nervous about long term independence of the FED. What that

936
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:27,760
Speaker 1: means we seem to we're we've we've we've we've allowed

937
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 1: the same people that gave us social media to try

938
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:32,360
Speaker 1: to give us AI just a lot of things that

939
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 1: should be of concerned us that, you know, I again

940
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 1: to borrow a phrase, I'm short term pessimistic about the

941
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 1: stock market and long term optimistic. Any anybody should be

942
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:48,879
Speaker 1: long term optimistic about it, because that's what history tells us.

943
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 1: But something feels there's you know, these these big cap

944
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 1: stocks are they are they really never are they really

945
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: sort of never going to reach a peak. So and

946
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:08,919
Speaker 1: I'm haunted by how familiar and how similar things looked

947
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 1: in the nineteen twenties to what they looked today, And

948
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,240
Speaker 1: the beginning of that decade was a lot of public

949
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 1: private partnerships that turned into graft that by the end

950
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:20,360
Speaker 1: of that decade turned into the stock market crush and

951
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:25,359
Speaker 1: the Great Depression. I'm not predicting that, but there's a

952
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 1: lot of there's a lot of created wealth that feels

953
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 1: it feels like it makes the system more unstable than

954
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:40,839
Speaker 1: it should feel in the moment. So you know, that's

955
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 1: where I get a little bit nervous, and you know,

956
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 1: at a minimum, I'd look at this current stock market

957
00:55:47,080 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: more through the prism of what happens when there's sort

958
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:52,400
Speaker 1: of new major technologies, right peak Internet. You know, we

959
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 1: kept investing, investing, but we knew there would be a

960
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,200
Speaker 1: dip until you know, that sort of weeded out the

961
00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:59,760
Speaker 1: bad actors, right the pets dot coms of the world.

962
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 1: What I keep asking my advisor is, Hey, which one

963
00:56:02,560 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 1: of these AI stocks is pets dot com? You know,

964
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 1: My thesis is that the more somebody talks about AI

965
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,240
Speaker 1: and their quarterly earnings report, the less AI they're actually

966
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:15,280
Speaker 1: probably using. Because it feels like many of these folks

967
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,400
Speaker 1: just drop the words AI in order to try to

968
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 1: get investors to spend money on their stock. So, you know,

969
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 1: but that's me playing CNEC. I love that you're asking

970
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 1: me these questions anonymous here. I don't have your name here,

971
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:33,319
Speaker 1: but I don't come to me for stock advice. I

972
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 1: don't want to be held responsible for your savings. All right.

973
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Doug and he writes, Hey, I

974
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 1: like your idea of revisiting, refreshing, updating the Federalist papers.

975
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 1: My question, who are three people today to step into

976
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,280
Speaker 1: the roles of Hamilton, Madison and Jay to perform this duty.

977
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:55,280
Speaker 1: I don't mean who today is the most representative of Hamilton,

978
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 1: but who today are three political thinkers best suited to

979
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:06,560
Speaker 1: express our ideals and aspiration? Boy, that's interesting. So I I,

980
00:57:06,640 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 1: you know, look on the on the right, I always

981
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 1: read every you know. You know you could make a

982
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 1: case and I'm gonna on the conservative side. If you

983
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 1: want a boomer conservative, it's George will If you want

984
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 1: a gen X conservative, it's David French. And if you

985
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 1: want a millennial conservative it'd be Matthew Contnetty. I think

986
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 1: they they are interesting thinkers on that front. I'd love

987
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: to see Derek Thompson tackle a federalist paper or two

988
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 1: for sort of you know, team center, team center, left,

989
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 1: whatever you want to refer to him on that. I

990
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 1: think it's fair. You know, maybe you would put a

991
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:56,000
Speaker 1: maybe you'd have a Heather Cox Richardson for team left

992
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 1: right on that. I don't know. Those are those are

993
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 1: potential folks on that front. Some names that you don't

994
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 1: hear as often that I think I always learned something

995
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 1: from Greg Easterbrook. He writes a substack called Tuesday Morning Quarterback,

996
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 1: but he's also written some books. He's done a lot

997
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 1: of sort of culture and political commentary. He wrote a

998
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 1: book that I've often quoted. It's sort of like, hey,

999
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 1: you know, we're winning history, you know, basically meaning look

1000
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 1: at all the great things that have happened, how many

1001
00:58:27,640 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 1: lives have been saved, how much longer humans live? That

1002
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 1: sort of like, you know, his whole thesis is we

1003
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: moan and grown every day about how bad things are,

1004
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: and actually, overall things continue to get better for the

1005
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 1: human species. Yes we've got challenges with climate change, and

1006
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 1: yes we've got these challenges here there, but that overall

1007
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:50,240
Speaker 1: we keep helping people live longer. We keep helping people

1008
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 1: live softer and less harsh lives. Overall, we keep raising

1009
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 1: more people out of poverty. Anyway, he'd be somebody intriguing

1010
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 1: on that list. Maybe some elected officials that I might

1011
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 1: be curious. You know, I'd want Ryan Paul in the room.

1012
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: I might want Michael Bennett in the room. I might

1013
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 1: want Elizabeth Warren in the room. I might want Lisa

1014
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: Murkowski in the room. You see where I'm going. You know,

1015
00:59:17,600 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 1: it's sort of like I want sort of people that

1016
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 1: don't mind being challenging other intellects and at the same

1017
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 1: time don't mind being challenged. That would just be my

1018
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 1: only rule on this. So those are just a few

1019
00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:43,800
Speaker 1: people i'd throw out there. You know. I'd certainly like

1020
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:47,439
Speaker 1: to I'd like to be a note taker. I don't

1021
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 1: know if I put myself there, but I'd certainly enjoy

1022
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 1: being a note taker and a compiler of the various arguments.

1023
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:57,440
Speaker 1: And I'd love to moderate these debates about rewriting the

1024
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 1: Federals papers House of that. Anyway, So there were a few,

1025
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 1: there were a few thoughts there. I might. Oh, I'll

1026
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 1: give you another one. Bill mcgraven, the guy who wrote

1027
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 1: the Make Your Bed speech. He's somebody I'd like to

1028
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:15,919
Speaker 1: see a part of this conversation. All right, hey, Chuck

1029
01:00:15,920 --> 01:00:17,400
Speaker 1: and everyone at the podcast, I'd love to hear a

1030
01:00:17,400 --> 01:00:19,520
Speaker 1: discussion about the ways the Trump administration is trying to

1031
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 1: rig the next election Texas mail and ballots, troops in

1032
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:24,960
Speaker 1: blue cities, etc. What other ways might Trump try to

1033
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:27,479
Speaker 1: affect the election? How effective would they be? How would

1034
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 1: Dems fight back? Thinks sent from Planet Earth, edge of

1035
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 1: the Milky Way, that is very funny. I appreciate that

1036
01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 1: those folks, those of us that live on the third

1037
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 1: rock from the sun, think it's just hilarious. Look, I

1038
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 1: think it is. I think if one person's attempt to

1039
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 1: rig an election is another person's attempt to gain an edge, right,

1040
01:00:55,640 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 1: And so I'm just you know, all mail. You know,

1041
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 1: one person thinks doing more mail in balloting is reform.

1042
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:08,640
Speaker 1: Another person think that open things up to Ringking. So

1043
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,160
Speaker 1: I'm just just trying to be Devil's advocate here on this.

1044
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: I'm not saying you're not wrong that Trump is trying

1045
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:18,560
Speaker 1: to do everything he can. He is petrified of Democrats

1046
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 1: getting subpoena power in the House, right, he is petrified

1047
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 1: of irrelevancy. Which if Democrats win one House of Congress,

1048
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:30,720
Speaker 1: his presidency becomes a lame duck immediately. Right. It's also

1049
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 1: why he doesn't like to talk about twenty twenty eight

1050
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 1: without his name in it, because that is acknowledging that

1051
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:40,600
Speaker 1: he's about to become an historical figure, but in history,

1052
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 1: not in the present nor in the future. So I think, look,

1053
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:50,480
Speaker 1: he's certainly doing things that if you were to say

1054
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: that's his goal. You know, they're trying to subpoenas state

1055
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:59,960
Speaker 1: records of voter files. You see that they're going to

1056
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 1: monitor elections in Virginia, New Jersey. Right, are they looking

1057
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 1: for some sort of trigger to get them more involved.

1058
01:02:11,400 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to sit here and rule out

1059
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 1: that that there is some people in Trump's orbit that

1060
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 1: want to fully rig this election. I would just say,

1061
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 1: and I think others would say, they're just simply trying

1062
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 1: to gain an edge that anybody in political power would

1063
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:29,720
Speaker 1: be trying to do. I think it's pretty clear that

1064
01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:32,920
Speaker 1: that that Trump goes past these sort of the normal rules.

1065
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 1: You know, as I always said, there's you know, there

1066
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 1: used to be honor among thieves in politics, and now

1067
01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:41,080
Speaker 1: there is there is There's no honor anymore among among

1068
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 1: some of them there, particularly on the right. So it

1069
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:51,160
Speaker 1: would you know, I I think if we really do

1070
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 1: see troops, more troops in multiple cities at the same time,

1071
01:02:55,240 --> 01:02:58,240
Speaker 1: and I just I guess I'm I'm still skeptical we're

1072
01:02:58,280 --> 01:03:02,080
Speaker 1: going to beyond a couple of cities that are just

1073
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 1: simply being used as an examples to quote own the

1074
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 1: Libs and to fire up his base. But if I'm wrong,

1075
01:03:10,640 --> 01:03:15,400
Speaker 1: I will I will flog myself on this podcast, and

1076
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 1: we will we will go from there. Next question comes

1077
01:03:21,240 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 1: from Brian and right here in Arlington, Virginia. I think

1078
01:03:23,640 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make this the last question. YEA, dear chuck

1079
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:29,440
Speaker 1: up at an MPTB fan and watch us since the

1080
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 1: speedac days, Ah the founder. As a young person, I

1081
01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 1: particularly enjoyed your work and russeer to your podcast as

1082
01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 1: a weekly must listen. Thank you well. I agree that

1083
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: the First Amendment issues that have been emphasized in the

1084
01:03:39,680 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 1: way of the Kimmel cancelation are the most important. I

1085
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:44,080
Speaker 1: disagree with the characterization of what he actually said. Many

1086
01:03:44,120 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 1: well respected commentators, including you, have said that Kimmel got

1087
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:48,160
Speaker 1: the that's wrong. I like to push back on that

1088
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:50,840
Speaker 1: perhaps he got a larger uncomfortable truth. Right, isn't the

1089
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:52,920
Speaker 1: scary reality for the political right? The very thing that

1090
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 1: Spencer Cox laments that Kirk's murderer is likely a product

1091
01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:58,520
Speaker 1: of their own community, like the young man who shot

1092
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:03,520
Speaker 1: Donald Trump Pennsylvania, this affection and anger from within, Well,

1093
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:06,760
Speaker 1: what's your definition of community? If you know the fact

1094
01:04:06,760 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 1: that we're doing this to each other, we all live

1095
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:13,440
Speaker 1: in this same community. I think the question is was

1096
01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:19,600
Speaker 1: this politically motivated? And where you had somebody who believed

1097
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 1: that the violence was justified to make a larger political statement.

1098
01:04:24,040 --> 01:04:26,120
Speaker 1: And that's where I think we all want to draw

1099
01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:28,920
Speaker 1: the line at politically inspired murder, that this is not

1100
01:04:28,960 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 1: who we are. That said, there's certainly plenty of examples

1101
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:35,760
Speaker 1: in American history where this is exactly who we've been.

1102
01:04:36,920 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 1: And we've done this before, and we've had political murder, uh,

1103
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:44,880
Speaker 1: politically inspired murder. So I'm not naive and say it

1104
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 1: doesn't exist. It it is. I guess you're implying that

1105
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:59,680
Speaker 1: demographically Kirk shooter, there are more people in Utah that

1106
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: are demographically or look like Maga that also looked like

1107
01:05:05,080 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 1: the shooter. I guess that's where you're going where I

1108
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 1: think others would argue this is an ideological argument. So

1109
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 1: I think really what MAGA doesn't want to accept is

1110
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:21,400
Speaker 1: that they somehow it's this what about is am on violence?

1111
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:24,520
Speaker 1: And this is where I just draw the line everywhere.

1112
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if you think only thirty percent of

1113
01:05:28,680 --> 01:05:32,080
Speaker 1: your side is violent, but sixty percent are theirs, and

1114
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 1: that somehow, because they have more violent people than your side,

1115
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 1: does ergo. You don't have to apologize for your violent people,

1116
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:41,400
Speaker 1: or you don't have to police your side. The problem

1117
01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 1: we have in American politics is these days is nobody's

1118
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:47,600
Speaker 1: willing to police their own right. You didn't have Democrats

1119
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:49,880
Speaker 1: trying to police Hunter Biden, and you didn't you don't

1120
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:52,959
Speaker 1: have any Republicans here trying to police the Trump family scam. Here,

1121
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:55,920
Speaker 1: we have a full on kleptocracy inside the Republican Party

1122
01:05:55,920 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 1: that's now the US government, and a whole bunch of

1123
01:05:58,360 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 1: House Republicans are doing nothing about it. I know they're

1124
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:04,520
Speaker 1: all ashamed of this, but they all want to keep

1125
01:06:04,560 --> 01:06:07,120
Speaker 1: their job more than they want to do something about it.

1126
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:11,360
Speaker 1: And there were plenty of Democrats that didn't want to

1127
01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 1: do something about Hunter Biden or just wanted to bury

1128
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 1: it because they didn't want to quote unquote give the

1129
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:20,040
Speaker 1: right an issue. That is the problem. There is this

1130
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:26,560
Speaker 1: constant we look at some political problem and think, how

1131
01:06:26,640 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 1: is it going to reflect in the great battle with

1132
01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 1: the other side, rather than boy, this is wrong, this

1133
01:06:34,640 --> 01:06:38,320
Speaker 1: is not who we are. Let's just denounce this hard,

1134
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 1: stop right. And I just don't want to play the

1135
01:06:43,840 --> 01:06:49,200
Speaker 1: game of who's right or wrong on this, implying that

1136
01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:53,960
Speaker 1: one side is trying to justify their violence more than

1137
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,880
Speaker 1: the other side. No matter how you're doing it, it's

1138
01:06:56,880 --> 01:06:59,480
Speaker 1: never going to come out right and we all lose.

1139
01:06:59,760 --> 01:07:04,840
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I'm not trying to be both

1140
01:07:04,920 --> 01:07:07,480
Speaker 1: sideries both sides on this. I'm just trying to be

1141
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 1: like we've got to there's certain things certain. If you've

1142
01:07:11,560 --> 01:07:14,600
Speaker 1: ever had an argument with somebody you love and you

1143
01:07:14,760 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 1: know in your heart you're right, but do you want

1144
01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:22,080
Speaker 1: to be right? Prove that you're right to the point

1145
01:07:22,120 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 1: where you no longer have a relationship with that person

1146
01:07:24,120 --> 01:07:26,240
Speaker 1: that you love. I may be talking about a spouse,

1147
01:07:26,360 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 1: a son, a daughter, father and mother. It's not worth it, right,

1148
01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:41,600
Speaker 1: It's easier for everybody to admit some fault if everybody

1149
01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 1: will admit some fault, right, you sort of just say, man,

1150
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 1: we've got to cut We've got to turn the temperature down.

1151
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 1: Heart stop. You know, if you want to sit here

1152
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:53,400
Speaker 1: and argue who's got to turn the temperature down more,

1153
01:07:53,640 --> 01:07:55,560
Speaker 1: then neither side is going to turn the temperature down

1154
01:07:55,560 --> 01:07:58,080
Speaker 1: at all. If everybody agrees we need to turn the

1155
01:07:58,080 --> 01:08:01,640
Speaker 1: temperature down, maybe it won't be enough, But if we

1156
01:08:01,680 --> 01:08:04,000
Speaker 1: all turn it down a little bit, it's a start,

1157
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 1: all right. I will drop my sanctimony there. With that,

1158
01:08:12,760 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 1: I will see you in twenty four hours. Be sure

1159
01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:19,200
Speaker 1: to be prepared Election Night like no other, a live

1160
01:08:19,280 --> 01:08:23,759
Speaker 1: stream with all your favorite political friends. It is coming.

1161
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 1: Election Night twenty twenty five. Decision Desk HQ the best

1162
01:08:28,200 --> 01:08:31,439
Speaker 1: in the business when it comes to figuring out who voted,

1163
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:35,720
Speaker 1: when and why and all of that jazz. We will

1164
01:08:35,720 --> 01:08:38,160
Speaker 1: have that data for you. We will have the analysis.

1165
01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:43,280
Speaker 1: We will have the political junkie show for political junkies.

1166
01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 1: And with that, I'll see it when we upload again.