WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance: Tech Earnings and the Middle East 0:00:05.040 --> 0:00:08.639 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:12.040 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:16.200 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:19.599 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:24.360 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:27.400 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:32.080 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:36.000 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:39.800 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business ass You know 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:42.720 you make it the economics, Paul. When you have your 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:46.000 own website, you know. Bernanke doesn't have his own website, 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.400 Powell doesn't, you know? I mean Ken Roguff, I don't 0:00:48.400 --> 0:00:51.599 think does. Claudia Sam does? She's large? Why is she large? 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:56.040 She's been hugely influential this year in the discussion of 0:00:56.080 --> 0:01:00.400 the gloom of recession, and she is intelligently and day 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:04.880 by day tick bake tick pushed against the gloom of 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.120 the financial zeitgeist. She said, it's wrong. I'm gonna give 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:11.240 you one paper. It's on a beautiful new website. Claudia 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:13.560 Sum and it's like one word, you know, they squeeze it, 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:15.880 and it's like she hired a consultant to do that. 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:19.040 You know, don't say, Claudia, don't say some And I 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:23.119 love this paper from eleven years ago, Shapiro summer out 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:26.720 and some checking the mail or more in the paycheck. 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:32.240 Does the effectiveness a fiscal stimulus depend on how it 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:34.920 is delivered? That's where're gonna go with Claudia Son. Claudia, 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:38.399 good morning, good morning, thank you. How'd your website go? 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:40.600 Was it like pulling teeth to get a website up? 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:41.560 Oh? 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:44.080 No, I had the very best helping me get it up. 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:47.400 So I'm very excited. So some consulting, it's all all legit. 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.559 Now it's beautiful. So it's simple, beautiful and it really 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:56.240 puts forward her intellectual input. This triple pandemic stimulus. I'm 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:59.640 going to put it in three waves. Are we through it? 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:03.160 And is it going? Like you and Shapiro wrote about 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:07.760 years ago, into our paychecks? Is a stimulus why we're 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:11.960 having a roaring twenties throughout this cycle. 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:15.160 I have been a fierce advocate for the stimulus checks, 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:18.000 particularly with the Rescue plan, and that came from research 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:20.960 the paper you cited. This is pure reviewed, well cited. 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:23.440 Looking at does it matter how we get money to 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.560 people stimulus checks or like what Obama did, little dribs 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:29.560 and drabs and text credits. You know, both makes sense. 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:32.600 But when we really want to get it cranking, give 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:35.240 people money, give it in a good slug, let them 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.920 get spending this, get the jobs back. And for a 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:40.000 lot of reasons. I mean, in a lot of ways, 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:43.040 we did big fiscal. Those stimulus checks, they mattered, and 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:46.440 we are enjoying a recovery that. Frankly, even I as 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.920 the real optimist on big fiscal I'm like, wow, this 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:50.360 is good. 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:53.320 Yeah, we saw a GDP print that just kind of 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:55.600 came in a week or so ago, well above expectations 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:57.079 at three point three percent. 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:57.240 Here. 0:02:57.280 --> 0:03:00.639 If I'm the Fed, I mean, that's an argument you 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:06.040 made that inflation is tamed, economy's doing okay. If I mean, 0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:08.639 I see in one of your recent notes you say 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:09.639 the FED is afraid. 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.720 What do you mean by that, Well, the Fed's always afraid. 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:14.560 They don't want to make a mistake. We're kind of 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.200 hard on them if they do. Now to me, and 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.800 the argument has been made, Chris Waller bost It that, oh, 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.120 we have the luxury of time. The economy is really strong. 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.360 We can wait and see what happens with inflation. And 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.480 Frank I absolutely firmly disagree. They do not have the 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:33.160 luxury of time. They have a dual mandate. And once 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.800 we are headed towards it, and we definitely are headed 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.680 towards two percent, they need to start cutting. I'm not 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.800 looking for two hundred basis points on Wednesday. It's just like, 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:45.560 let's get going. So you can do this gradually and carefully. 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.680 And yet the demons of the nineteen seventies with Arthur 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.360 Burn's cutting, then inflation got out of control and it 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:54.080 was an election year. It's like, oh wow, here we are. 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.040 So I expect them to really drag their feet, and 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.480 we better get real lucky that financial markets hold together 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:02.680 until the FED starts. 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:03.560 You know, there's. 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:05.480 Exactly there's your stock report. 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:09.720 That's your stock report for the day. Better Marcus strategist Claudius. 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:12.280 Yeah, sorry, I got to get really lucky here, So. 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:14.440 Claudia, I mean, you know, I'm looking at the w 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:16.640 I RP function here is kind of the world interest 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:22.279 rate probability still looking forward five or six cuts this year. 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:24.480 How do you how do you view that? 0:04:26.360 --> 0:04:30.719 I hope they're right. There's a lot of daylight between 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:32.680 what I think the FED should do, and that's they 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:34.960 should start cutting right away, and what I think the 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:39.160 FED will likely do, and that's starting at the earliest 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.839 in May and that and obviously when you start is 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:44.760 going to make a big difference on how many cuts 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.000 you do for the year. So I think what's most 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.920 likely is something closer to four cuts, take a percentage 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.520 point off. And yet you know markets have pushed the 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.720 FED around before in this cycle, so they just might 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:56.160 get it. 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.600 The Bloomberg financial conditions and exposed the word is I'm 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:04.800 using the judiciously massively accommodative at the show where they 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.840 are Claudia and the debt and the deficit issue, and 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.320 it's an ax of all of our listeners on CarPlay, 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:13.240 Apple car Play and all of you watching on YouTube 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.960 Bloomberg podcasts. Claudia Sam is just as simple as this, 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:20.640 Joe Stiglitz says, you can do all this fancy debt 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.719 and deficit, but you got to have an underlying growth 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:27.000 rate to solve it over time. Do you have a 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:30.360 confidence with the new boom that we have an embedded 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:35.600 underlying growth rate that can extract us from this debt crisis. 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:37.400 I wrote a. 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:40.960 Piece recently for Bloomberg Opinion about this question of the 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:43.520 deficit the debt. Should we be worried. I come down 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:45.760 in the place of no, we should not be. On 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:48.040 a lot of like, we're in a good place financing 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:49.680 the dead things are, and as you said, we're in 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:51.800 a good growth position. I mean, I ever want to 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:53.360 say we're going to grow our way out of the debt. 0:05:53.400 --> 0:05:56.039 I think that's too optimistic. And yet what I say 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.280 is like, step back, look at the context. What are 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.440 we doing with all of this government tax and spending policy. 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:04.000 And that's the conversation we should have is bottom up, 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:08.640 not get obsessing over some top line number. And yet 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:12.279 I will absolutely affirm Stiglitz that this growth piece is 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:16.320 so important. And these productivity numbers we've gotten, which you know, 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.320 productivity can disappear on us. But if we even get 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:23.279 a quarter percentage point on trend productivity growth, like all 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.279 sins are forgiven for any mistake made in this cycle. 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:28.279 So that's so important. 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:32.839 That is the economic insight today, Paul, how doctor somem 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.720 there went to such a narrow incremental growth. People think 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:39.719 you got to have a ginormous growth. Even just a 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.480 little bit of a growth gets it done over ten. 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.960 Years, Claudy, the conversation when we had the FED pivot 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.080 late last year seemed to really migrate from you know, 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:52.080 is there a recession in the scenario to I guess 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:54.440 the consensus was very much a soft landing. 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:55.920 Is that where you are? 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:59.000 You think that this FED is just about done its 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:00.919 job here and negoti shading a soft landing. 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.720 I've been calling us soft landing this entire time. 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:06.039 YEP. 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:09.440 That inflation was in fact, dare I say the word transitory. 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:11.000 We don't need to argue about that one today. But 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:13.360 inflation went up, there was a lot of COVID disruptions, 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:15.480 and Putin showed up. He caused a lot of disruptions, 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.360 and we got many things under control, and inflation has 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.560 come down. I don't give the FED a whole bunch 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:22.520 of credit for that. They're in the mix and they 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.920 needed to be in terms of, you know, going after 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:28.920 the inflation that surged in twenty twenty two, and yet 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:32.040 everything I am still a purist. It is until we 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.640 get inflation twelve months on two percent. I'm not calling 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:38.080 the soft landing here, but whow we can see the 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:41.800 runway right like this is just we're so close and 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.280 this was not supposed to happen, and it happened. 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:47.120 How X post is the fed right now? X Post, 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.960 folks is after the fact x antes where it's what 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:52.320 the media wants, if financial media wants them to get 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.080 out front. Yeah, right, there's no history that they do that. 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:57.640 But I mean, what's the level of X posts here? 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:00.680 Is it like Claudia? Is it like Richie Timberlake and 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:02.760 the Georgia school, which is they're going to wait and 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:06.360 wait and wait and wait. You mentioned Arthur Burns earlier 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:09.160 and the political soup he had to live in. What's 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:10.960 their level of X post right now? 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.440 They are going to wait as long as humanly possible, 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:18.360 and that actually might hit them pretty soon. I mean 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:21.480 the three month changes in inflation, the six months, I 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.120 mean they're at two of course, so like they really 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:26.720 got to get going. We can still have some turbulence, 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:28.840 we have some bumps in the road, and yet the 0:08:28.920 --> 0:08:32.240 stories they're telling about why they're not so sure about 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:32.960 it OCA. 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.480 It's like we got to run, but I just can 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:39.079 you tell me what your own Paul does with Dow 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:43.760 Jones Industrial average round number forty thousand. I mean that 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.840 alone has to change his strategy, right A boom like that. 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:51.840 No, it's all about the due mandate. I mean, frankly, 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:54.200 the wealth effects aren't that big in terms of going 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:56.439 into the FED is on the real economy. 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:57.480 And it's good. 0:08:57.760 --> 0:08:59.600 It's great because when she disagrees with me, we can 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:00.480 just hang up on her. 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:02.200 Claud Us up. 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.959 Thank you so much, just Treasury claud Us with all 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:07.880 our work at the Federal Reserve and of course out 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:22.120 of the University of Michigan joining us now. James Stravetis 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:26.719 with a blistering essay in Bloomberg Opinion, made more blistering 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:29.840 by his public service to the nation with the United 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:33.679 States Navy. Of course, his effort is Supreme Commander of NATO. 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:37.680 Were thrilled that Edmundstervetus could join us this morning, Jim, 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.840 I want to go to your wonderful book, the Leader's bookshelf, folks. 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.800 I'll put it out on Twitter and LinkedIn. He sent 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:45.880 me a royalty check once. I mean, I've sold so 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:49.280 many copies of this, mister is like, thank you. The 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:54.240 Leader's bookshelf is brilliant. It's forty to fifty chapters from 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:58.640 military experts about the book that changed your life, including 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:02.240 for example, a Connecticut Yankee and King Arthur's Court. Here's 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.120 the first sentence. Are the very best leaders born or 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.480 made and most Javitas? Do you have confidence in our 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.360 leadership after what we've witnessed in Jordan? 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:15.000 I'm worried. 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:20.280 Let's be honest, because what we're doing is not working. 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.319 And we see in the world of business the concerns 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.960 we have about who these attacking shipping in the Red Sea, 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:32.600 driving prices of oil and goods. We see terrorist attacks 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:36.439 against Israel. We see most recently tom As you allude 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:40.679 to the attack that killed three brave American servicemen and 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:45.480 womenmen in Jordan. So we are not deterring Iran. What 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:49.400 the article I wrote for Bloomberg Opinion does is sketch 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:52.760 out a campaign that we need to undertake that I 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:56.440 am hopeful will ultimately deter Iran. 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:58.960 Paul wants to get into that, But Jim, you've been 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:03.840 so so so far out front on a game theory basis. 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:07.600 In folks, a cliche is expect the unexpected, But you 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:13.520 have stated that in our complexity of military force, technology 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:18.400 and politics, that it's the unexpected, like mixing up drones 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.120 coming in or out of a base in Jordan. It's 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.880 the unexpected that will kill us, that will harm us, 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.720 that will put us at risk. How do we defend 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.160 against the next unexpected? 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:37.000 For Starters, Tom, we look back at history and identify 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:42.160 those moments, those hinge moments. In the case we're discussing 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:47.200 of military operations, the Battle of Agincourt where English long 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:52.199 bowmens slaughter French knights in their supposedly impervious armor of 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:57.000 Pearl Harbor, where we are stunned by a Japanese surprise attack. 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:02.600 We look at those hinge moments when airplanes radar came 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:06.480 on the scene and changed everything. We are in that 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.600 moment now, and we're talking about the Middle East. But 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:13.439 I would argue equally, so what's happening on the battlefields 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:14.240 of Ukraine? 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.040 So Connecticut, Yankee and King. 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:21.400 Arthur's Court is a book about innovation and leading through 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:25.000 these kind of pivot moments. We are definitely in one 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.280 where technology and security are coming together. 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:30.880 Adamiral, I want to go right to your Bloomberg opinion 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.520 piece yesterday because it had such an impact that I'm 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.359 sure it had quite the impact in Washington at Depentagon, 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.160 at the White House. But basically the summary is from 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.160 your opinion piece, a deadly drone attack that cost American 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:47.800 lives requires a swift, precise, and meaningful military response. Could 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:52.480 you summarize what type of response you think this attack warrants. 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:57.320 It's kind of the Goldilocks phenomena, Paul. In other words, 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:03.760 we've been trying to retain this by pinprick attacks, by 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:08.560 tit for tat small beer. At the other end of 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:13.480 that spectrum is whistling jets overhead Tehran. I don't think 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:15.840 we're there yet. We need to be in the middle 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:20.599 that Goldilocks place. And here's what it includes. Cyber attacks, 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:27.120 better intelligence collection, going after Iranian assets, but not inside 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:31.719 Iran yet. We can still go after the Iranian Revolutionary 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:36.840 Guard at Sea Asure they are training, organizing, equipping and 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:43.280 directing who they's Hezbollah, the Iraqi Shia who. 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:44.920 Have killed our American soldiers. 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:49.080 We need to go after Iran directly, but not yet 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:50.120 inside Iran. 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.120 That's the essence of the article. 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.800 And Admiral I know you said even suggesting perhaps eight 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.120 five to eight day concerted campaign. 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:02.679 What would that can pain entail in your estimation. 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:06.520 I think we'd bring a second US aircraft carrier back 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.760 into the region. Recall we had two there right after 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:14.960 October seventh, we pulled one out. Iranian bad behavior continues, 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:19.600 So maritime assets. We have a lot of air power 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:25.320 in the Gulf, in Guitar and the base near Doha Aludid. 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:30.600 We would bring more refueling aircraft, more fighter jets, bring 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:34.480 our allies into this, and then it would be I'd 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:39.600 say one to two weeks of sustained bombing against Iranian 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:44.080 targets again outside Iran at this point, and then finally, Paul, 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.840 we would be preparing the battle plan if we have 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:49.400 to go inside Iran. 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:51.440 Let's hope we don't get to that point. 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:53.760 I think the Iranians would back down in the face 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.280 of a truly strong US respond James Savetis. 0:14:57.280 --> 0:14:59.400 I want to go to Brett Krazer, a captain in 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:03.160 your magnificent book, Folks, I can't say enough about to 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:07.760 risk it all nine conflicts in the crucible of our 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.880 leadership in the Navy. Yes, it has admirals in it, 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:15.560 but as Travitas does, there's a Lieutenant Commander in there 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:19.400 as well in a cook third class. I love that. 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.760 Let's go to Brett Krozer and this is the reality 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:26.080 of his career ended with COVID in the Uproar and 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.560 the Theodore Roosevelt. But tell us about Brett Krozer as 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:33.320 a kind of preparation, James travitas that we need if 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:34.800 we're going to take on Iran. 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:42.560 Brett Krozer a fighter pilot, also a superb targeteer. He 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:46.080 worked for me as a captain selecting the targets we 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:51.080 struck in Libya. So a consummate combat pilot and operator, 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:56.560 also a terrific leader. He, unfortunately and with bad luck, 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.360 became the captain of an aircraft carrier at the very 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:04.200 beginning of COVID. He sacrificed his career to protect his crew. 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:08.440 He's someone extremely admirable. And if we read the story 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:12.440 of Brettkrozier into Risk at All, you'll see how we 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.720 can and must take care of our people while we 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.000 conduct these kind of operations. 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:22.880 Are we too extended? Ian Bremer and Eurasia Group Admiral 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:28.440 had a spectacular chart on the dispersion, including reservists from 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.280 Georgia across all of the Middle East. It's almost as 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.160 if the Bremer worry in his top risk can do. 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:40.280 Are we too naive in our unprotected dispersion across a 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:42.440 broader Eastern Mediterranean? 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:45.560 Now, I think this brings us back to where we 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:49.240 started this conversation, Tom, which is to say, if we've 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:54.040 recognized the technology of the moment and are aware of it, 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.720 we can do a better job defending ourselves. 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:57.640 Point one. 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.360 Point two A lot of this can be done from 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:06.320 the sea. Our carriers are invulnerable essentially. And point three 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:10.840 we can fuse together to work with our allies, partners 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:14.520 and friends in the region, so we're not alone and 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:19.200 afraid out there. We are with allies, partners and friends. 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.760 We need to leverage that in a better fashion. 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.400 Admiral, Again, I'm just going to reference your opinion piece 0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:26.200 from yesterday, and again you can read it on the 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:30.000 Bloomberg terminal, certainly, and you can go to Bloomberg Opinion 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.040 dot com slash opinion Bloomberg dot com slash opinion to 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:36.800 find it on the website. Do you believe, Admiral that 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:40.080 some of the steps and policies you laid out in 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:44.040 your opinion piece, does that have a welcome reception with 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:45.040 this administration. 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:47.800 With Congress, I. 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:48.399 Think it will. 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:51.760 And as usual with any issue in today's America, there'll 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:57.160 be plenty of folks who are advocating very radical go 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:02.560 downtown Tayron tonight strike. I think that's premature. We might 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:05.560 get there, let's writ not. On the other side, there 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.000 will be those who say, just pull out of the 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:12.159 Middle East, let all of that just fall apart. I 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:14.720 think what I've laid out is something in the middle 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:18.520 that makes sense, that will avoid a wide regional war, 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:20.640 but will cause Iran to back down. 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:23.240 Okay, you know we're going to run out of time 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:24.960 here in a bit. I want you to sell right 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:28.360 now to this nation, and everybody's listening. The one guy 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:33.680 in Congress that actually probably can talk about this and 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.359 calm down, let's bomb Tehran Crewe And that's a senator 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:41.119 from Rhode Island, Jack Reid. How important is Jack Reid 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:42.200 in this debate? 0:18:43.520 --> 0:18:43.840 Well? 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:46.639 I love Jack Reid because, first of all, he's a 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:49.879 man of normal height about five feet five inches called 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:54.240 my height number two. He's a military guy, he's a veteran, 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:57.159 he went to West Point. I'll forgive him that. He 0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.640 is at the top of the list. Tommy, You're absolutely 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:05.120 correct in his strategic vision, his understanding of the balance 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.480 we need to strike here. And I think the more 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:11.880 we listen to the jack reads of the Congress, the 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:16.080 better our chances are of steering through these rough waters where. 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:18.280 We are now as a nation. Does it have elements 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.040 that you and Elliott Ackerman wrote about in two thousand 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:23.720 and thirty four my book of the Summer Paul A 0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:27.400 couple summers ago. What's so frightening folks about the book 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:31.040 two thousand and thirty four to zero three four is 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.240 the unexpected? Are we getting elements of that right now? 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:38.320 Ed must vetus one hundred percent, tom And we've talked 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:45.040 a lot about drones, unmanned new uses for unmanned surface 0:19:45.160 --> 0:19:46.480 vehicles on the sea. 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:48.080 All of that is happening. 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:50.760 I would argue the next step is going to be 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:55.800 the addition of artificial intelligence to how those unmanned systems 0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:58.719 are used. That's what we need to be looking ahead 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:01.600 toward and think how can we reverse it and hear 0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:02.800 it and stop it. 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:05.000 James Travitas, thank you so much, folks. I'll put it 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:07.800 out on Twitter LinkedIn the Leader's bookshel he's upset. I'm 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:10.679 selling this because he's got fourteen other books after this. 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:17.359 But the Leader's bookshelf shelf absolutely iconic as well. Amstervitis, 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:23.760 thank you for that briefing. It's great about Natia Level 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.560 and all of her you know, efforts with us. Is 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.199 is she really nailed the market? So she's looking at 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:33.240 the Hinckley picnic boat, the thirty seven s nice you know, 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:35.320 the things like a nice boat. It's got the jet 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:37.959 little jetty thing. He's out the side, Nadi. I can 0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:39.679 just see Nattia a Level with a beverage of her 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:43.240 choice in hand with the Hinkley Picnic vote this summer. 0:20:43.280 --> 0:20:45.320 And of course the name of her boat is the 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:48.000 heart of her work. Is why she's in the market 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:50.720 and you're not. You're the name of her boat what 0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:52.080 with upside potential? 0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:54.480 Yes, I mean that's the name of the. 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:58.960 Boat, Nadia. And you have absolutely killed you gotta be 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.679 in the market. Why are you still in the market 0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:03.560 after the October run we've had. 0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:09.120 It's the economy and the earnings potential that is there. 0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:13.440 I mean you saw that the economy continues to define expectations. 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:16.480 I mean we had strong GDP last week, and sort 0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:19.439 of this question is can that continue? And is this 0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:22.840 immaculate disinflation for real? I mean, we'll get more data, 0:21:23.240 --> 0:21:25.960 you know, when we get CPI on February thirteen, and 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:28.000 of course the seasonal adjustment, but. 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:28.840 We think that it is. 0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:31.320 I mean, we do think the economy will slow, but 0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:33.800 we think that it returns more to trend line about 0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:35.960 two percent GDP growth for this year, and that's a 0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:37.160 positive for the markets. 0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:40.439 Top of the income statement, what does nominal GDP do? 0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:42.919 How does that fold into revenues? If I've got to 0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:46.400 give an organic revenue growth of six percent, what's the 0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:50.400 new organic revenue growth look like at one year, two years? 0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:54.159 I mean, for us we're looking for in terms of 0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:58.120 EPs growth, we're looking for nine percent for this year, 0:21:58.119 --> 0:22:00.800 and we think that twenty twenty five I can also 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.720 produce a similar sort of EPs. 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:04.440 Growth for the markets. 0:22:04.480 --> 0:22:06.800