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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast, and it is.

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Speaker 2: Good all right. Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing in job spectators. I'm sitting it to cash. We'll

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Speaker 3: see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but they

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Speaker 3: go to wind. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I

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Speaker 3: like to make money. All right. This is the ultimate

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Speaker 3: combine you want to pull, and we are underway. What

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Speaker 3: up everybody, and welcome to the week seventeen Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your week

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Speaker 3: seventeen betting preview with odds courtesy of bet MGM, the

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Speaker 3: official odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. I am

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Speaker 3: joined as always by my Action Network colleague and a

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Speaker 3: prime minister. Degenerate nation, Stucky, stuck? What's going on? Howard?

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Speaker 3: Is your holiday?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Good? Good holiday? Went back to Philly, saw some

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Speaker 2: family quick visits. Still football season, no real breaks here,

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Speaker 2: but it's nice to see the family had a winning

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Speaker 2: week in the NFL. Wish it would have gotten my

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Speaker 2: total home. That Steelers chiefs under was so brutal under

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Speaker 2: forty five, Tomlin kicking a field goal down thirty to nothing,

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Speaker 2: and then of course they scored a touchdown on fourth

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Speaker 2: down after giving up another field goal on a fumble

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Speaker 2: right before then, I went against you with the with

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Speaker 2: the Bengals, but I mean it ended up being Josh

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Speaker 2: Johnson and then the whole Raven's defense ended up being out,

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Speaker 2: and you know, the Vikings till you give up hump

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Speaker 2: return touchdown, you lose feel into an injury. But hopefully

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Speaker 2: with these new COVID rules, you know, we're not going

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Speaker 2: to see as many, you know, mass you know, massive

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Speaker 2: amount of players being out for teams down the stretch

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Speaker 2: because it was getting a little crazy and it was

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Speaker 2: just making handicap in the NFL a complete shore and

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Speaker 2: just almost a guessing game in some instances.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, let's get into the week seventeen preview. We

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Speaker 3: got no Thursday night football, so we'll jump right into

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Speaker 3: the Sunday six Pack presented by the Athletic Brewing Company

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Speaker 3: before we do a couple quick notes. First, in case

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Speaker 3: you're new here, please download the free, award winning Action

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Speaker 3: Network app. It's the top rated app for sports betters

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Speaker 3: and it lets you track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of the app, if you want to reference our

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Speaker 3: Sunday six Pack picks anytime, just use the apps follow

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Speaker 3: feature and follow Sunday six Pack. We log our picks

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Speaker 3: there every Friday during the season and three Spotify. Now

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Speaker 3: let's do rate podcasts. So if you listen to the

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Speaker 3: show on Spotify and you enjoy it, or you just

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Speaker 3: use Spotify at all, please give us a five star rating.

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Speaker 3: It would really help us out and we really appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: Thank you guys for listening and sticking with us all year,

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Speaker 3: through the highs and the lows, and a little more

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Speaker 3: highs and lows. So feeling pretty good. Let's finish strong, Stuck,

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: There's action.

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Speaker 4: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, Stuck, still a very close score here. We're

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Speaker 3: doing one point now for the three picks the total,

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Speaker 3: and then one point for our teaser, just to kind

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Speaker 3: of reduce some of the variants of two point plays

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Speaker 3: in you know, COVID, so forty eight, forty seven.

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Speaker 2: I'm up, it'll probably go back to like that, a

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Speaker 2: bigger point value for the playoffs if we if things

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Speaker 2: settle down. But I think this is the way to

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Speaker 2: go for the final weeks of the regular season. All right,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go for my first pick of the Week

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Speaker 2: seventeen Sunday six pack. I'm going with the Washington Football

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Speaker 2: Team plus three and a half against the Philadelphia Eagles

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Speaker 2: at bet MGM. So this fits a number of different

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Speaker 2: angles that I like, and I'm gonna have an article

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Speaker 2: up on actionwork dot com the Action Work Out next week.

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Speaker 2: It also applies to Week seventeen. Usually it's week sixteen

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Speaker 2: and seventeen, but there's eighteen weeks this year, but the

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Speaker 2: final two weeks. Historically, if you fade teams that need

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Speaker 2: to win for the playoffs against teams that have been

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Speaker 2: eliminated from the playoffs, you are very profitable doing so

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Speaker 2: over the final two weeks of the season. And the

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Speaker 2: reason for that is these teams that are in or

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Speaker 2: you know that are out, you know they can play free,

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Speaker 2: play loose, and you know, all the pressures on the

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Speaker 2: other team. And then generally speaking, the market tends to

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Speaker 2: be overinflated on these teams that need to win. So

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Speaker 2: all of details and all that outline a number of

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Speaker 2: different scenarios, but you know I can speak to let's

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Speaker 2: just speak to this particular game. A couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles were playing Washington Football team at home and

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Speaker 2: Eagles were off the bye. The look ahead line for

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Speaker 2: that game was Eagles minus two and a half, and

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Speaker 2: then it reopened at minus three after mcclaorn was maybe

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Speaker 2: going to be out, and then obviously it took off

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Speaker 2: and it went up to ten because Washington's whole team

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Speaker 2: was out and Garrett Gilbert was starting. So like the

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Speaker 2: you know, the fair market was right around Eagles minus three,

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Speaker 2: and you know, I had a slightly higher but not much,

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Speaker 2: and now you're getting the Eagles are minus three and

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Speaker 2: a half a couple weeks later on the road in Washington.

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Speaker 2: There's not much home field advantage for either team. It's

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Speaker 2: a divisional game, not much travel, a lot of familiarity,

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Speaker 2: and you had to adjust Washington down after last week's disaster.

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Speaker 2: But it's a team that was dealing with just a

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Speaker 2: depleted roster and just COVID issues. Over two weeks that's

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Speaker 2: basically all cleared out. I think they only have two

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Speaker 2: guys left on the COVID list. They're both backups. They

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Speaker 2: should have, you know, everyone that's available, not injured should

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Speaker 2: play here. And I just think that this is a

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Speaker 2: complete overreaction to what happened to Washington last week on

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Speaker 2: National TV against Dallas, getting completely embarrassed by the way

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Speaker 2: they didn't cover by more than twenty eight points. Talk

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Speaker 2: about this a lot teams coming off a game where

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Speaker 2: they didn't cover by at least twenty eight points. Since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and three, seventy eight, four, six and five

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Speaker 2: against the spread, that's sixty three percent. So that speaks

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Speaker 2: to the you know, the general the general nature of

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Speaker 2: buying low and selling high in the NFL. You should

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Speaker 2: get a spirit an effort from Washington, who can try

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Speaker 2: and spoil their rival season, A team they just lost

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Speaker 2: to by the way, a team they just saw a

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Speaker 2: unique offensive Philly runs. And I just think that this

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Speaker 2: Eagles team, I like some things that they're doing. But

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Speaker 2: you know, people are getting a little too high on

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Speaker 2: I mean, here are their previous wins, so it's like

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Speaker 2: the Jets, the Giants backups and Washington's backups. Before that

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Speaker 2: they lost to the Giants on the road at thirteen

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Speaker 2: to seven. Here are their wins on the year, the Falcons,

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Speaker 2: the Panthers, the Lions, the Broncos, the Saints with Simeon,

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Speaker 2: the Jets, Washington with Gilbert, and Giants with from they

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Speaker 2: would beat a single team with a winning record all year,

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Speaker 2: So I think this is an overreaction. I just am

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Speaker 2: taking the value with the number here, especially over a

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Speaker 2: key number of a field goal. I can't get to

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Speaker 2: three year, so I'm definitely gonna take three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Buy low, sell high spot in the division game late

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Speaker 2: in the year. Should have a close to full roster

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Speaker 2: for Washington, and people forget that this is the same

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Speaker 2: Washington team that you know. It just shows you the

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Speaker 2: ebbs and flows of the NFL market and narratives, and

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Speaker 2: you know, Washington just a couple of weeks ago was

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Speaker 2: the darling of the NFL. Right, They beat the Bucks

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Speaker 2: at home, and then they went to the Panthers and

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Speaker 2: they won. Then they beat the Seahawks at home, and

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Speaker 2: they went to Vegas and beat the Raiders. They won

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Speaker 2: four straight, you know. Then they lose to the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: at home in the game with just a ton of turnovers.

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Speaker 2: He actually had a chance late. And then they get

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Speaker 2: COVID right, so like, and then the roster's just decimated

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Speaker 2: for two games, and all of a sudden everyone has

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Speaker 2: fallen out of love and the market I think has

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Speaker 2: gone too low here, So give me. Washington plus three

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Speaker 2: and a half at home against the Eagles in a

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Speaker 2: game that I think should be under a field goal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, late in the season, home dog. Not too many

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Speaker 3: opportunities this week to play home dogs. I'll get to

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Speaker 3: when that. I like, uh in a second too. But

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Speaker 3: I think this time of the year, you got some

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Speaker 3: you got some crowds, uh, Like, I mean, my only

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Speaker 3: thing with Washington, I have had trouble getting a feel

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Speaker 3: for this team just they've been so inconsistent or not

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Speaker 3: I shouldn't say it consistent. It's been like streaky almost.

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Speaker 3: But do you think there's gonna be any like residual

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Speaker 3: effects from like that whole sideline Frucus that happened with

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Speaker 3: a pain and and Johnathan down. Do you think that's

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Speaker 3: gonna kind of galvanize them?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that could be a rallying point. And

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Speaker 2: they they knew each other from college, and I think

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Speaker 2: that that that was much ado about nothing and from

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Speaker 2: everything that they've said, I don't know. I think it

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Speaker 2: could be a rallying point if anything, but I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's anything at all. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I might join you on this one. Egos. Also, they

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Speaker 3: started real slow even last week against the Giants. Uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, played a really good second half. But if

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Speaker 3: they do that against and they started slow against Washington

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Speaker 3: a week before, so you figure at some point that

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Speaker 3: might catch up to them. Divisional road game, Laight in

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Speaker 3: a year, Washington is are they eliminated or they technically

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Speaker 3: still alive?

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Speaker 2: Washington is a seven percent chance to make the playoffs

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Speaker 2: if they win out there at about thirty percent.

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Speaker 3: But this is their season. This, this is their season.

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Speaker 2: No, but Washington will win this and then lose at

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Speaker 2: the Giants somehow. That's the way these things were.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but no, this makes that basically like Washington even

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Speaker 3: more just because I think if you're ever gonna get

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Speaker 3: one more effort from Washington like it's going to be

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Speaker 3: in this game, and then you kind of go from there.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, don't disagree at all. For my first pick

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Speaker 3: and the second overall pick of the week, seventeen Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack, I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals plus five

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Speaker 3: and a half at bet MGM against the Kansas City

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Speaker 3: Chiefs at home. Man, it's been a bumpy ride with

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Speaker 3: the Bengals. I feel like I win three in a

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Speaker 3: row to the Bengals and I lose one, then it's

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Speaker 3: like it's up and down. But I gotta jump back

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Speaker 3: on the Bengals, yere. I just don't think the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: I know they they kind of wallop Pittsburgh. I expected

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Speaker 3: that if they were anywhere near healthy. But Pittsburgh their

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Speaker 3: defense is railing right now. They can't do anything on offense.

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Speaker 3: I think this Bengals team is a completely different team

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Speaker 3: and one of those teams that will give Kansas City trouble.

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Speaker 3: And like Kansas City's had a couple of big bow

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Speaker 3: out wins in there, you know Raiders. Then they beat

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Speaker 3: the you know, the the Steelers. They kind of pulled

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Speaker 3: away from the Broncos weight. I thought it was more

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Speaker 3: of the Broncos mistakes. But I think this is still

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Speaker 3: a flawed Kansas City team. Their defense is getting better,

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Speaker 3: but now you gotta face Borrow fresh off a five

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Speaker 3: hundred yard game. You gotta face you gotta legitimately guard

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Speaker 3: you know, three different wide receivers. This team is the

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Speaker 3: best team in the league. And I've been talking about

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Speaker 3: this all year. Against man coverage on offense, Kansas City's

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Speaker 3: fifth highest man coverage rate. So you're either gonna get

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Speaker 3: a defense that's gonna have to go out of its

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Speaker 3: comfort zone a little bit. Spags does that, so I

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Speaker 3: could see them playing more zone here. But or you're

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Speaker 3: gonna get a defense that kind of meshes perfectly with

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Speaker 3: what Cincinnati does best on offense. So either way, I

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Speaker 3: think that's advantaged Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: It blitz a lot too, Top ten number one against

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Speaker 2: the Blitz.

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Speaker 3: Right, So it's it's you're either gonna take them out

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Speaker 3: of the comfort zone, which is always a win, or

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Speaker 3: it's just got a great matchup for Cincinnati anyway. Then

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Speaker 3: you have the fact that Cincinnati's improving seventeenths in DV

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Speaker 3: away for the year, but twelfth be weighted, so that

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Speaker 3: waits the more recent games, So they're twelveth Cincinnati. Kansas

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Speaker 3: City's fifth. They haven't really changed, they've been six for

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Speaker 3: the year, fifth weighted. So you're getting a really good

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Speaker 3: Kansas City team against a good Bengals team, but you're

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Speaker 3: getting five and a half and you're getting the Bengals

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Speaker 3: at home, so I think that's worth it. You look

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Speaker 3: at Kansas City since midseason of last year, and that's

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Speaker 3: even with them kind of riding the ship a little bit,

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Speaker 3: you know, on this big winning streak. Now, Kansas City

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Speaker 3: has a favorite since mid twenty twenty, including the postseason

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Speaker 3: seven and fourteen against the spread, failing to cover by

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Speaker 3: an average of two point eight points per game. So

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Speaker 3: I think that, you know, this is still a Kansas

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Speaker 3: City team that against the team like the Bengals against

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Speaker 3: the quality team, it's not gonna be It's not even

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Speaker 3: a gimme win, especially on a row. You're not an narrowhead.

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Speaker 3: This is every week we kind of say this, but

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be like one of the most important Bengals

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Speaker 3: games that they've had in a long time here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know, chance to get to what is it, ten

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Speaker 3: wins now in the season, kind of lock up, keep

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Speaker 3: going towards locking up that AFC nors. I think these

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Speaker 3: teams are a lot closer together than they were, you know,

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Speaker 3: probably middle of the season or even early in the

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Speaker 3: season with Cincinnati playing better and then Kansas City. You know,

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Speaker 3: they're on this three games streak of scoring thirty or

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Speaker 3: more points. Teams like this from week ten on. It's

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Speaker 3: just so hard to kind of keep this up. And

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Speaker 3: we've seen this with Kansas City. They've gone cold a

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Speaker 3: bunch of times, but teams on three game streaks of

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Speaker 3: scoring thirty plus from week ten on against non o

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Speaker 3: weite teams, So teams that have won, you know, fewer

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Speaker 3: than two thirds of their games. The team that's going

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Speaker 3: against the team with the streak of scoring thirty plus

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Speaker 3: the Bengals sixty six, forty one and two sixty two

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Speaker 3: percent against the spread according to our Actual Labs data

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Speaker 3: ROI of nineteen percent. You get Logan Wilson back. He

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Speaker 3: practiced in full, so you have another extra linebacker.

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Speaker 2: Did he practicing full to that? Yeah, that's that's enormous

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Speaker 2: because PRA I mean, Gaither's already out and practice went

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Speaker 2: on the COVID list. He could obviously come back now.

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Speaker 2: But Logan Wilson's their best cover wing backer, just up

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Speaker 2: against Kelsey, who's obviously going to get his But yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean we don't know where what exactly how Kelsey's

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Speaker 3: doing either. I mean, he was gonna get queer, then

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Speaker 3: he didn't get queered, because you know, sometimes guys coming

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Speaker 3: off the COVID list, you don't know they're they're also

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Speaker 3: without probably gonna be without Edwards z Ware, so that

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Speaker 3: that still takes a little dent out of that backfield.

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Speaker 3: But I just think this is gonna be one of

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Speaker 3: those games where you see the Kansas City that has

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Speaker 3: the Kings in the armor versus the Kansas City, you know,

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Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh or the Raiders, who they just match up

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Speaker 3: really well. Again, So give me Cincinnati plus five and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree. I'm waiting on the sex here

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Speaker 2: and can spags is I like it a five and

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Speaker 2: a half, but yeah, I'm gonna wait out. You know,

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Speaker 2: you're in that dead range to see if we get

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Speaker 2: a six same and you know you have COVID, you

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Speaker 2: could have COVID news, so there's no reason to rush

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Speaker 2: right now. A lot of five and half. That's we

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Speaker 2: have to really consider with these with this COVID news

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Speaker 2: this year, it's like, are you around a key number?

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Speaker 2: So is it worth grabbing it earlier or not? In

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Speaker 2: this case, I don't think it is obviously for this contest,

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Speaker 2: and we have to. By the way, Knidy's running a

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Speaker 2: lot more some Cover two over the past six weeks.

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Speaker 2: I think that's working. But their defense, which is improved,

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Speaker 2: right you get Chris Jones in, you get some guys healthier,

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Speaker 2: you make some personnel changes. Their defense is better, but

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Speaker 2: it's still not a great defense, and they are running

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Speaker 2: extremely well, Like if you look at the efficiency of

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Speaker 2: like points per opportunity, finishing drives. I mean, they're just

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Speaker 2: at an unsustainable rate right now. Like there's massive regression

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Speaker 2: coming in both turnovers, points per opportunity, things of that nature,

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Speaker 2: which I think Cincinnati can take advantage of against a

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Speaker 2: team that likes to run a lot of man likes

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Speaker 2: to run, you know, likes to blitz a lot. And

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Speaker 2: it's where Burrow thrides look sometimes and see is it's worse.

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Speaker 2: It's its worst own enemy, and that's because of the

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Speaker 2: play calling and they want to run it too much

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Speaker 2: at times. That's not a bad thing here because Kansas

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Speaker 2: City's run defense is still bad and Joe Mixon, I

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Speaker 2: think can have a big day here, especially in the

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati run defense has been really good. Yeah, keep it

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Speaker 2: on DJ readers status. But there's a great equalizer here,

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Speaker 2: and especially when you have a bad run defense and

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Speaker 2: a good run offense, and that's the wind and the weather.

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Speaker 2: So I agree, I think this is too many points

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Speaker 2: and a perfect example of what the Chiefs regression that's

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Speaker 2: coming on defense is. You know, just take a look

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Speaker 2: at that that that Broncos game. I mean the Broncos,

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Speaker 2: who had like four hundred and fifty yards, went up

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Speaker 2: and down the field and just would you know, get

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Speaker 2: to the five and then turn it over on downs.

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Speaker 2: And that's a perfect example of what's been happening lately,

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Speaker 2: you know. And besides that they played, you know, you

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Speaker 2: want to talk about who they played over this stretch.

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Speaker 2: The defense has been better, right, But they played the Giants,

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Speaker 2: they played the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, you know, they

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Speaker 2: played the a Raiders offense trending way down. They played

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys without their receivers, right, they played the Broncos again,

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Speaker 2: who had like four hundred yards. They played the Raiders again,

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Speaker 2: and they played the Chargers who went up and down

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Speaker 2: the field, and then they played a poverty Steelers offense.

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Speaker 2: So let's pump the brakes on the Chiefs defense. It's

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Speaker 2: no longer the worst defense in the NFL, but it's

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Speaker 2: still a below average defense overall. So I agree, I

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Speaker 2: like sense here all right. For my second pick of

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Speaker 2: the week, seventeen Sunday six pack, I'm going with my

334
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Speaker 2: Baltimore Ravens plus three and a half at bet MGM

335
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Speaker 2: against the Los Angeles Rams. Scary game to bat, but

336
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Speaker 2: you know, look it's you're really buying the Ravens in

337
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:49,320
Speaker 2: a classic hardball spot after getting embarrassed last week. Harble

338
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Speaker 2: by the way thirty nine to twenty nine three against

339
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Speaker 2: the spread as an underdog twenty seven, eighteen and three

340
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 2: when catching three or more than sixty percent for you

341
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Speaker 2: trend people Stafford against a team with a winning record

342
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Speaker 2: thirty one four forty nine and two against the spreads

343
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Speaker 2: in two three. That's the least profitable out of two

344
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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty seven quarterbacks. It's thirty eight point eight

345
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Speaker 2: percent against the spread negative twenty four point three percent ROI.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's back to back East Coast games for

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Speaker 2: the Rams. This is a one o'clock start. This is

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Speaker 2: for the Ravens season. This is a Ravens team that

349
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Speaker 2: was just completely decimated at almost every position because of injuries,

350
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Speaker 2: because of COVID, you name it, and they should be

351
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,919
Speaker 2: in much better shape this week. Lamar Jackson practiced today,

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Speaker 2: limping around a lot. I don't I mean, obviously you're

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Speaker 2: not gonna shoot him up for practice, but he's out

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Speaker 2: there on a Wednesday. He's gonna play. He's gonna start.

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Speaker 2: From all of my intel, I can't say that for sure,

356
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Speaker 2: but all the intel that I gathered, he's gonna start

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Speaker 2: the game. You're gonna get shot up. And if he

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Speaker 2: can't go, Huntly is available, So you won't have Josh

359
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 2: Johnson out there. You also have a number of other

360
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Speaker 2: guys who should come off the COVID and then most importantly,

361
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Speaker 2: you will have a more competent secondary. You know, when

362
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 2: you look at last week, they the Ravens had one

363
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Speaker 2: of their top eight corners available in the second half.

364
00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 2: You had Anthony aber Go down with an injury. You

365
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Speaker 2: had Tavon Young who left with an injury. You're you're

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Speaker 2: talking about a team that had a practice squad player

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Speaker 2: and a guy they just signed off the street as

368
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Speaker 2: your top two corners last week. I mean, it doesn't

369
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Speaker 2: get any worse to that against Borrow. I mean it

370
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Speaker 2: was it was bad. Jimmy Smith off the COVID list.

371
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 2: Teyvon Young should be back, Chris Westry is back, like

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Speaker 2: these are. It's obviously not Marlon Humphrey, it's obviously not

373
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Speaker 2: Marcus Peters, but these are huge upgrades in the secondary.

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Speaker 2: You also have a little weather that can help neutralize this.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think that just this line is

376
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,280
Speaker 2: just crazy over catching the Ravens over a field goal

377
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 2: at home, plastic Harball spot. You have a little neutralizing

378
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 2: factor in the wind here. Raven's run defense has been

379
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,959
Speaker 2: awesome all year, one of the best in the NFL.

380
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Speaker 2: That's how the Rams like to set up everything. And

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Speaker 2: you know there's gonna be some win which might limit

382
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Speaker 2: stafford a little bit. I think the Ravens ugly this up.

383
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Speaker 2: Big special teams advantage, big coaching advantage here, huge coaching

384
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 2: advantage in strategic decisions, which I think could end up

385
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 2: playing a role here. John Harball, one of the sharpest

386
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Speaker 2: coaches in the NFL. Sean McVay, as I always call

387
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 2: him on Twitter, is a fake sharp If you look

388
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 2: at all of like the fourth down decisions when you

389
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 2: should have went for it versus not over the past

390
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:45,159
Speaker 2: five years, the person the coach who has made the

391
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 2: the fewest amount of positive decisions in those scenarios is

392
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Speaker 2: Sean McVay. He always makes the wrong decision, is too

393
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 2: conservative when he should be aggressive. And Harba is going

394
00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 2: to be aggressive of this game. So give me the coachingvantage.

395
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 2: Give me the special team's advantage. Give me a healthier

396
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 2: Ravens team buying them low after getting embarrassed, and I'll

397
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Speaker 2: take catching over a field goal at home here in

398
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Speaker 2: front of what should be a raucous crowd. Bigger home

399
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 2: field advantage than usual weather. Right, this is a Rams

400
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,439
Speaker 2: team that's plays in LA. They're going across the country

401
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:27,400
Speaker 2: one o'clock start, not familiar with Baltimore. Bigger home field

402
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 2: advantage than usual here, So give me the Ravens plus

403
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 2: three and a half. The only time they let me

404
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 2: down in the Sunday six pack in two years is

405
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,439
Speaker 2: the game that I was at the Bengals game when

406
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 2: I had the Bengals, I mean the Browns game, and

407
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 2: I have the Browns minus two and a half and

408
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 2: the Browns are up twenty one. Fortunately, I'm not going

409
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 2: to this game and we.

410
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Speaker 3: Are and I'm not betting against you. I'm not. I'm

411
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Speaker 3: not betting. I'm not taking the Rams. That was the

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Speaker 3: key I like to think, you know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm uh and we're not. We're not laying points,

414
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,359
Speaker 2: we're catching points here. Yeah, so uh yeah, give me

415
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Speaker 2: a big, big Tucker game in the win here keep

416
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 2: that out of mind too. With the field goal kicking.

417
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 2: Mark my words, Rams missed a couple of field goals

418
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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 3: I'll have more on this game. I don't think the

420
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Speaker 3: weather is going to be a massive factor. I mean

421
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 3: it's still fifty two degrees, but I mean Tucker's going

422
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Speaker 3: to make everything but that, you know, I think it's

423
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: more so just rebound spot for the Ravens getting healthier,

424
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Speaker 3: you know, Lamar. I think it's actually good for Lamar

425
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Speaker 3: when he has time to kind of sit back and

426
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Speaker 3: watch himself. Remember he got hurt. I think it was

427
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Speaker 3: down a stretch last year where he missed it with

428
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Speaker 3: one game and he came back and he was just

429
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 3: a lot better. But also I think there's another one

430
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Speaker 3: of these scheme games where the Ravens have had a

431
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 3: lot of trouble against those cover zero you know, six,

432
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: seven and eight ban blitzes, Like you never played Madden

433
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,959
Speaker 3: and picked engage eight defense, Like I feel like that's

434
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 3: what they're giving the Ravens, and like that's what especially

435
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 3: Lamar has been struggling with. Well. The Rams plays the

436
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 3: second most zone in the league. The Ravens are about

437
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 3: a yard and a half per attempt better versus zone

438
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 3: coverage than they are against man coverage, you know. So

439
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,479
Speaker 3: I think that's big because the Rams that's really been

440
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 3: there mo o. You know, it's just been we're not

441
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 3: going to be super aggressive. We're gonna kind of sit back.

442
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 3: We're gonna give you some different looks, but we're gonna

443
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 3: just kind of sit back. You get those have those

444
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 3: four defenders deep in quarters and they'll split the field.

445
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 3: We're not gonna blitz a ton. So I said, another

446
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 3: one of those things where you're either gonna have to

447
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 3: take the Rams out of their comfort zone and and

448
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 3: the Ravens, I mean, they've got to be prepared for

449
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 3: this by now. It's been happening for like seven eight

450
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 3: weeks now, so they think it finally maybe get some

451
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 3: going here. But yeah, I just I think there are

452
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 3: a lot of schematic advantages, and then you're just getting

453
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 3: the Ravens home field. You're getting the Ravens bounced back spot.

454
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: So those are kind of why I like it. But

455
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 3: I'll talk more about this one in a bit for

456
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,440
Speaker 3: my second pick change.

457
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 2: By the way, I are that's not that's not an

458
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 2: insignificant and linebackers are obviously really important and again against Ravens.

459
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 3: Okay, here you go, man, So this is not my

460
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 3: unusual kind of pick, but uh, it's light in the air.

461
00:22:56,320 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 3: The suite is it's pretty interesting. But there's been a

462
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 3: trend with this team that I'll talk about. So I'm

463
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 3: going with Buffalo minus fourteen and a half against Atlanta.

464
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 3: And here's the thing about the well, first of all,

465
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 3: just on paper, obviously it's a mismatch. Buffalo's average margin

466
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 3: of victories ten point nine points per game, Atlanta's is

467
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 3: minus eight point one. Schedule adjusted Buffalo ten point six,

468
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 3: Atlanta minus eight point six. So either way, you're looking

469
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 3: at about a nineteen and a half point nineteen nineteen

470
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: and a half point difference just in terms of the season.

471
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 3: And then you got Buffalo at home, we got Atlanta

472
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 3: plan outdoors. But look at Atlanta this year against teams

473
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: that are currently above five hundred thirty two to six

474
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 3: loss to the Eagles, forty eight, twenty five loss to

475
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 3: the Bucks, thirty to seventeen loss to the Bucks, forty

476
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: three to three loss to the Cowboys, twenty five to

477
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: nothing loss to the Patriots, thirty one to thirteen loss

478
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: to the forty nine ers, in which the forty nine

479
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 3: ers spotted them a touchdown early in a game, and

480
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: then Miami just got above five hundred. So we'll give

481
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: them at thirty to twenty eight win over Miami. But

482
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 3: overall total points Atlanta ninety four above five hundred opponents

483
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty seven. That's an average of thirty

484
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 3: three point nine to thirteen point four in terms of

485
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 3: the score, a twenty and a half point deficit for

486
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 3: the Falcons against teams currently above five hundred, one and

487
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: six straight up one and six against the spread. So

488
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 3: if you're ever gonna bet against Atlanta, if you're ever

489
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 3: gonna take a number like this, I think this is

490
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 3: the time to do it. I think Buffalo's got the

491
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: advantage pretty much every aspect. They're at home. I was

492
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: really impressed by what they were able to do in

493
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 3: the rematch against the Patriots, you know, even getting digs going,

494
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: which really tough against a Belichick d. I think they're

495
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 3: gonna be able to do whatever they want here. And

496
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 3: this has just been Atlanta's m O all year. Just

497
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 3: get blown out by twenty against good team. So going

498
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 3: to Buffalo bills fourteen and a half against the Falcons.

499
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 2: Take one team as a big favorite the NFL. The

500
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 2: Bills are that team. They just don't let their foot

501
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 2: off the guests. They always pass, and we saw it

502
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,239
Speaker 2: against what the Panthers when they covered late, they went

503
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 2: toward a fourth and two and threw it in. I

504
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 2: think they've ruined your total and pushed by the second

505
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 2: half total.

506
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, one point.

507
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 2: The Bills love just blasting these bad teams, so I

508
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: do not disagree with you. All right. For my third

509
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 2: pick and the fifth overall of the week seventeen Sunday

510
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: six pack, I'm going with the Tennessee Titans minus three

511
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 2: and a half at home against the Miami Dolphins. I look,

512
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 2: I am now starting to sweat my Dolphins under wins

513
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 2: total under season wins, which is insane. But I have

514
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 2: do not buy this team just as look, I'm still

515
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: as low as this team as I was early in

516
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: the year. And I think you a lot of people

517
00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 2: might have seen a tweet of mine from this week.

518
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: Let me pull it up. The Dolphins have won seven straight.

519
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 2: First team in NFL history to win seventh straight and

520
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 2: lose seventh straight in the same season they've won seventh straight.

521
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 2: Here's the quarterbacks that they beat, and this is after

522
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 2: losing to Trevor Lawrence on a neutral field. Then they

523
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 2: lost to Tyrod Taylor in his first game back from injury,

524
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: and he's had an awful year. He's been awful. Then

525
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 2: they beat Lamar Jackson, short week, brilliant defensive game plan

526
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: and beat the Ravens at home. Good win. They beat

527
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, and Ian Book.

528
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 2: You're talking about out of those seven quarterbacks, you're talking

529
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 2: about six that aren't in the top thirty of quarterbacks

530
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 2: in the league right now. Some are should be third stringers.

531
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: I mean, the Book is a maybe fourth stringer. Mike

532
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 2: Glennon shouldn't be in the league anymore. Cam Newton shouldn't

533
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: be in the league anymore. Joe Flacco shouldn't be in

534
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: the league anymore. Zach Wilson has been awful, Tyrod Taylor

535
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: has been awful. I mean, these are the quarterbacks that

536
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 2: they beat. So I'm still not buying Tua. He's been better,

537
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: but still no air yards. The offensive line is one

538
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 2: of the worst in the NFL. Still can't pass protect,

539
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 2: they can't run the ball.

540
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: Oh, line is all holding call.

541
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 2: That's it. So Tennessee should be healthy here, getting a

542
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: lot of guys off COVID. I assume aj Brown is back.

543
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 2: We saw how massive that was for the offense. And

544
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 2: by the way, Tennessee late Thursday extended rest here. Miami

545
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: played in New Orleans on Monday night, you know, second

546
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: road game on a short week, while Tennessee has extra

547
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: prep three or four extra days here. I think the

548
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 2: charade is over if you can. I played some money

549
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 2: line here, if you can wait for the three. I

550
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 2: still like it at three and a half, nowhere close

551
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 2: to as much. So it should be a low scoring game.

552
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 2: So that field goal was really valuable if you can

553
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 2: buy it at like minus one twenty or lower if

554
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: you want to money line it with someone. But I

555
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: still like it at three and a half. I'm just

556
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 2: not buying the Dolphins. I'm completely selling them. I'm waiting

557
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 2: for them to play a competent team and with a

558
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 2: competent quarterback. This is the spot, and I think that

559
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: the Dolphins come crashing back down to earth here in

560
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 2: a bad situational spot, and I think the Titans get

561
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 2: this done and they should be able to run the

562
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: ball to here in Miami, even without Derrick Henry. So yeah,

563
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 2: give me tenn of say selling fading Miami their luck

564
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 2: of running into fourth string quarterbacks finally ends.

565
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:29,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree on Miami. I kind of like at

566
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 3: three and a half, I'm not there just because I

567
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 3: think this is one where you need the three. Like

568
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 3: I like what Miami is doing on defense schematically, and

569
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm totally rich you on Miami obviously playing

570
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 3: a substandard slate of quarterbacks and that's making the defense

571
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 3: look good. But I do like what they're doing schematically.

572
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 3: I just don't know what I And I've said this before,

573
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:53,719
Speaker 3: I just don't know what I'm gonna get out of Tennessee.

574
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 3: Like and their offense, like, yeah, they you know, they

575
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 3: played a j Brown was great, but they have some

576
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 3: COVID issues. I mean, you know, Julio, what is it

577
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: the they had Cody Hollister, Like, I don't know what

578
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 3: their receiving room is gonna look like. I mean Brown

579
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 3: could be a close contact or like he could get

580
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 3: he could test positive. So this is one where, Yeah,

581
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 3: if I couldn't get the three personally, I would I

582
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: would stay away. But I get it, you've been kind

583
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 3: of low on Miami a year, it's a better time

584
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: than any to sell high on them. I just I'm

585
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 3: not there with Tennessee. I don't know what I'm getting

586
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 3: out of them. So yeah, that's where I kind of

587
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 3: am maybe an under in this game. I don't see

588
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: either team score many points. But yeah, I would definitely

589
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 3: definitely try to wait for the three or or yeah,

590
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: like you said, maybe go for the money line if

591
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: you like the Titans.

592
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: By the way, that wrote the only And another thing,

593
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 2: they played two road games over the seven game when

594
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 2: you should there five to two at home. The road

595
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 2: games were against Ian Bulk and a practice squad of

596
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: the Saints, and then the Jets in a game they

597
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: were out gained in and they won by seven. But yeah,

598
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 2: I haven't faded the Dolphins once on the street, so

599
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 2: it's not like i've been. I've just been waiting. I've

600
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 2: been to get this opportunity, and here it is.

601
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel I just I just that that half

602
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 3: point like it just seems to be like it could points.

603
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 3: But I mean it's a tough way because like as

604
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 3: you're about to see with you know, we already saw it.

605
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 3: My second pick, kind of going against my normal strategy,

606
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: and I'll get into my third for my third pick

607
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 3: and the sixth overall of the week seventeen Sunday six pack,

608
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Bucks minus thirteen and a half

609
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 3: at the Jets. And listen, the line came down a

610
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 3: little bit because Arians was ruled out. Maybe there's more

611
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 3: COVID issues and this this could come back to bite me.

612
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 3: But I still think as long as you have Brady,

613
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 3: you're probably okay against his Jets team. First of all,

614
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 3: just a massive letdown spot for the Jets, who probably

615
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 3: should have lost to the Jaguars anyway. I mean, I

616
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 3: don't know what, Trevor l.

617
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: You should have hit our money on underdog car left.

618
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: We should have hit it. I don't know.

619
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 2: It's Jacks or Spike.

620
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 3: Got to spike it. It was like the ghost of

621
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 3: Urban Mayoo was just haunting the Jags like he's still there.

622
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: It was urban esque. It's like, see, that's what happens

623
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,479
Speaker 3: when Urban Meyer coach is your top quarterback, your your

624
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: franchise quarterback for thirteen games. You know, like he's spiking

625
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: the ball with the two yard line on third and goal.

626
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 3: But I digress. Like it's it's not the most comfortable play.

627
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: Maybe if you want to tease it and get a

628
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 3: little more of a cushion, I wouldn't blame you. But

629
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 3: similar to the Falcons and the Bills. First of all,

630
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: it's a mismatch on paper. The Jets margin of victory

631
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 3: minus eleven and a half second worst, Tampa Bay plus

632
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: eight point seven. That's third best. Schedule adjusted, the Jets

633
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 3: are minus eleven one Tampa Bays plus nine three. So

634
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 3: it's about a twenty point twenty and a half point

635
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 3: spread either way. Now, if you look at Tampa Bay's

636
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 3: margin of victory, it's eight point seven, but against every

637
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: team of set, the Saints, it jumps to eleven point four.

638
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: It's the Saints.

639
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 3: We've talked about this. They've had the Bucks number for

640
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: since Brady joined the team. But Tampa Bay's second overall DVOA.

641
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 3: I know they have some injury. Jets are twenty six.

642
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 3: They have some injuries as well. There all their tight

643
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 3: ends are on the COVID list. I mean, it's just

644
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: they don't have any receivers. Salo will be back, but

645
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 3: I mean this is just a talent efficient team and

646
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 3: it's a letdown spot. But then you look at this

647
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay team and I don't think they're at full strength.

648
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 3: I'm not trying to say like all this Tampa Bay

649
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 3: team is just gonna run over everybody. But against teams

650
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 3: with below six wins, which the Jets are obviously one of,

651
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 3: they played five games, they're five and oh. Straight up,

652
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 3: they're five and oh against the spread forty eight to

653
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 3: twenty five against Atlanta, thirty to seventeen against Atlanta, thirty

654
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: eight to three against Chicago, thirty to ten against the Giants,

655
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 3: thirty two to six against Carolina. Tampa Bay one to

656
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,719
Speaker 3: seventy eight. Opponents with six or fewer wins currently sixty

657
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 3: one an average score of thirty five point six to

658
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 3: twelve point two, a twenty three point four point different

659
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 3: So I know Tampa Bay is not a full strength

660
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 3: I still think they come out and handle business against

661
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 3: this team. It's just too much of a talent, too

662
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: much of a talent disparity here, Ugly Slate give me

663
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: the Bucks minus thirteen and a half. What could go

664
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 3: wrong with two double digit favorites.

665
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's probably Bucks or nothing here, But

666
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:18,959
Speaker 2: I'm pretty close. I'm at like fourteen a little over fourteen.

667
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 2: That's what I projected at. And then you know, but

668
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: there's these COVID issues and so yeah, it's bucks or nothing.

669
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 2: But I don't have any real strong feel here, all right.

670
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 3: That is going to do it for our week seventeen

671
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack to recap stuck is going with Washington

672
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 3: plus three and a half, the Ravens plus three and

673
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 3: a half, and the Titans minus three and a half

674
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: three and a half points spread. That's pretty interesting. I

675
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 3: don't know if we've had that before. And I'm going

676
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 3: with Cincinnati plus five and a half, Buffalo minus fourteen

677
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 3: and a half, and Tampa Bay minus thirteen and a half.

678
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 3: That's gonna do it for our week seventeen Sunday six pack.

679
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,920
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680
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681
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682
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683
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684
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685
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686
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687
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688
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689
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690
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691
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692
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,719
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693
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 2: Cheers.

694
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: All right, Stuck, It is time for this week's Coaches

695
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 3: pep Talk.

696
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

697
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: to throw up, so the press I don't even want.

698
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 4: To talk about it.

699
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 3: And for this week's coaches pep Talk, bit of a

700
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 3: somber one. But got a pair of respects to the

701
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 3: late great John Madden who passed away earlier this week.

702
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 3: So I got my Raiders throw back on. It's not

703
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 3: you know, it's a bo Jackson. So they didn't overlapor anything,

704
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 3: but had to kind of honor John Madden in some way.

705
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 3: So this one is dedicated to, you know, all the

706
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 3: American fans who lost a great one with the passing

707
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 3: of John Madden.

708
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 4: And you noticed Pat Troy Aikman's trying to grow up

709
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 4: beer and he just can't do it. I mean, you know,

710
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 4: the blonde haired guys, a lot of them have trouble.

711
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 4: But I can't even I'm looking as close as I

712
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 4: can and I can't see any beer. But he's been

713
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 4: that's a fortnight beer.

714
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 2: I got to get him time. He just had his

715
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 2: twenty ninth birthday.

716
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 4: I know, but I don't think he's doing a very

717
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 4: good I'd quit. I mean, you know, I mean, like

718
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 4: if you've been working out for four days and that's

719
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 4: all you get and the going gets tough, if it's

720
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 4: not tough, just quit. Well you can't just quit, Yes

721
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 4: you can, That's what That's what I'll say it.

722
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 2: When it going gets tough, quit, Yeah, absolute legend. I

723
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: mean I grew up obviously playing Madden, and spent many

724
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 2: hours in high school in college with friends playing. I

725
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: remember I used to be these awful I used to

726
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 2: be really good on defense, and then I had these

727
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: maybe because it was the Ravens, and then I would

728
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 2: just I remember running. I would just run slants with

729
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 2: Travis Taylor and these awful Ravens teams. That's like I'm

730
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: just running the ball. But yeah, I mean just a legend.

731
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 2: I remember I still get duck. My wife now makes

732
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 2: duck every Thanksgiving, and I remember my mom. I'm making

733
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 2: my mom make t duck in and always listening to Madden.

734
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: And I was tweeting the other week about before he

735
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: passed rip. I was like looking at playoff simulations and

736
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 2: I was like, forty nine ers. It looks like we

737
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 2: could get forty nine ers at Cowboys. And I was like,

738
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 2: that is the most summer all and Madden vibes game ever.

739
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 2: I guess you put it in Candlestick and then have

740
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,320
Speaker 2: Madden Summer All. I mean, just like the voice of football,

741
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: the narrator of football, and the in when I was

742
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 2: growing up in all in love with football. So rest

743
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 2: in peace to a legend. Thoughts with his family and friends.

744
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, ri Ip to a legend, John Madden. Uh, the

745
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 3: NFL would not be the same without you, man. All right,

746
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 3: let's get into our favorite total the week. Stuck ut

747
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 3: first to the six pack. I'll start us off with

748
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 3: the total, and I'm actually going Ravens Rams over forty

749
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 3: six and a half. Obviously, Baltimore is gonna be healthier

750
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 3: in the secondary, but the Rams do have enough weapons

751
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 3: here with Kupp, who's gonna get his regardless Beckham, Jefferson, Higbee, Uh,

752
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 3: you know, Sony Michelle. Now you know maybe even some

753
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 3: cam Akers. They have enough weapons to still give this

754
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 3: secondary issues. Uh the Rams also, you know we talk

755
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 3: about scheme, both of these, it's both of these schemes

756
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 3: our advantage offense. The Ravens are the fourth most man

757
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 3: heavy team on defense. Now maybe they relax a little bit.

758
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 3: You know, n Bartindale hasn't been one two, but you

759
00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 3: know they're still dealing with injuries, are facing the strong

760
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 3: off They just got bombarded with yardage through the air

761
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 3: last week. But fourth most man coverage. The Rams are

762
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 3: the second best team to the Bengals in efficiency against

763
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 3: man coverage, so averaging nearly ten yards per temp. So good,

764
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 3: good offensive spot for the Rams. And then already talked

765
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 3: about you know Baltimore they struggle a lot more against man,

766
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 3: but the Rams played almost all zone. They're second in

767
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 3: zone coverage rate on defense. So I think both of

768
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 3: the schemes kind of given advantage to the offense here.

769
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 3: I don't think you're gonna get miss field goals with Tucker.

770
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 3: You know, you think maybe you know, Gay will miss some,

771
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 3: but that's kind of regardless of the point. I just

772
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 3: think both of these teams have been over teams this

773
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,959
Speaker 3: year Rams eight six and one, Baltimore eight and seven

774
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: combined sixteen thirteen and one. I think it's gonna be

775
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: a close game, I think Baltimore. I think Baltimore is

776
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 3: probably gonna have a good shot at winning this game,

777
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 3: as you talked about earlier, but I think it's gonna

778
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 3: have to come on offense. I think they're gonna have

779
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 3: to finally have a put together a good game with

780
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson. I think they can here just giving the matchup,

781
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 3: and I think the market is a little too low,

782
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 3: just because you know, the Rams are obviously studded with

783
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 3: talent on defense, and the Ravens have been playing second

784
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 3: and third string quarterbacks and Lamar had been struggling before that.

785
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 3: But I think, you know, I think either one of

786
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,879
Speaker 3: these teams could do more than their part to get

787
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 3: us here, even if the other one kind of lays

788
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 3: an egg on offense.

789
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 5: So give me the Ravens Rams over forty six and

790
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 5: a half. Yeah, yeah, I think that. I don't disagree

791
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 5: with that. I mean, the Ravens has gone over three

792
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 5: straight games. The market really hasn't caught up to the

793
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 5: fact that their offense can still move it. In the

794
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 5: defense and all their defensive injuries, They've gone over three

795
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 5: straight games with backup quarterbacks, a second string, and a

796
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 5: third string. And by the way, the Rams and what

797
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 5: I think Mountain don't do is he's gonna start out

798
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 5: man and blitz probably the first.

799
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: Half if it's going. If it's a disaster, he's going

800
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 2: to try and drop back in zones. But if it's

801
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 2: a disaster, that's good for You're over. That's a they

802
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 2: did last week. They had they dropped back in zones

803
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 2: in the second half and neither worked. But they had

804
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 2: guys off the street from my favorite total the week,

805
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Oakland Raiders, the

806
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 2: Las Vegas Raiders.

807
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 3: Hey mass John Madden week, we can call them Jafer Raiders.

808
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, under forty five doesn't matter. Think it might be

809
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 2: forty four and a half on betem Jeno, as't matter.

810
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, either way, you gotta get to forty four

811
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: or west.

812
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, get the forty five out there. It's obviously a

813
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 2: key number. I've talked about this completely fading Raiders offense

814
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 2: over the past couple of weeks. Just they don't have

815
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 2: the weapons on the outside. They can't really run the ball.

816
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 2: The offensive line isn't great. They've since the buye in

817
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: Week eight. Here's what they've scored sixteen fourteen, thirteen, fifteen, nine, sixteen, seventeen.

818
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 2: The one time they went over seventeen points is that

819
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 2: stupid Hockey League game on Thanksgiving when they got thirty

820
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 2: points off of penalties in overtime in Dallas and they

821
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: knocked me out a survivor. Fortunately, I don't have to

822
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 2: worry about a bad beat on six million dollars because

823
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,320
Speaker 2: I had the Chargers saved for this past week against

824
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 2: against the Texans, so I was rooting for the Texans

825
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 2: at the end. I was like, come on, now, I

826
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 2: don't think curse hockey for the rest of my life.

827
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 2: But who knows, maybe I would have changed my mind.

828
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 2: I don't think so I had them saved and that

829
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 2: I probably would have used them there. But the Raiders'

830
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 2: offense and now Wallers on COVID list just not going anywhere.

831
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 2: And these two teams, by the way, are very slow.

832
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 2: Colts are dead last in the NFL in situational neutral

833
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 2: adjusted pace, Raiders are below average. The Raiders defense, by

834
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,440
Speaker 2: the way, the one thing that it does do is

835
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 2: it doesn't it doesn't allow explosive place either on the

836
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 2: ground or through the air. Their top ten in both.

837
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 2: And the reason for that is all they do is

838
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 2: sit and club three to three deep zone forty seven

839
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 2: percent of the time, and you wonder why Ma Holmes

840
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 2: is eating them up. The next highest is the Bucks

841
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: at like thirty percent. That's insane to be in that

842
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 2: one shell that that that high. So but it's good

843
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 2: for preventing exposive plays. So I think that they're gonna

844
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 2: make the Colts work to get down the field. The

845
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 2: Colts go slow. I don't see the Raiders doing much.

846
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 2: The Colt's red zone defense also, I think has some

847
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 2: positive regression coming, Like they're good against the run, they

848
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 2: should be better in the red zone. Wentz has some

849
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 2: negative aggression coming his way, so I think or from

850
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 2: football from both turnover worthy throws and yeah, he might

851
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 2: not play here, so they change the rules so he

852
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: will be eligible to come off. And you know, he

853
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 2: has to have no symptoms and his doctors have to

854
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 2: clear him. So I would assume most likely he's gonna play,

855
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 2: but you don't know if he actually got it right,

856
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 2: and then he's unvaccinated and is he actually like really

857
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 2: sick right, Like that's so there's some there's some potential

858
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 2: upside to this under if like Wentz can't go or

859
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 2: he's really sick, right, and then you get Sam Ellinger

860
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 2: in there, and then you're just handing get the tailor

861
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 2: forty times. So yeah, there's a lot of reasons why

862
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 2: I like this under, and I think it'll be like

863
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 2: a there's somewhere around like twenty three seventeen Cold Twin.

864
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 3: Talk about bad beats with Raiders totals. So last week,

865
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 3: you know, I was, as I talked to you about,

866
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 3: I was super low and Drew Locke. I was like this,

867
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 3: you know, this guy is just not going to be

868
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 3: able to move his offense. So I had seen, you know,

869
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: I have a trade trend saved in my Action Labs

870
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: where the Broncos on the road under Fangio the Unders

871
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 3: eighteen and four in the first half. So I was like,

872
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 3: all right, you know, yeah, full game, full game. I'm like,

873
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 3: all right, you know, I do like the the Raiders here,

874
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 3: so I hate betting on things, you know, where it's like,

875
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 3: you know, the Raiders, if they happen, I'm like, finally

876
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,399
Speaker 3: get it right on and I lose my under beet.

877
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 3: So I was like, you know what, first half seems safer.

878
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 3: I think both teams, you know, kind of come out

879
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: running the ball. Uh. So I take it at twenty

880
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 3: because I'm thinking, like, there's no way the market is

881
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 3: going to continue to let this drew lock total, like

882
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 3: if it's gonna go down, not up. Of course it

883
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 3: goes up. So I could have gotten twenty and a

884
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 3: half or twenty one, but I take it it's twenty.

885
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 3: And that was the difference between me having a profitable

886
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 3: week and just you know, a push, you know. So

887
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 3: it's just, uh, I'm rooting for you on this Raving

888
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 3: Raiders when I might join you there. I think that

889
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 3: there's not a ton of unders actually this week that

890
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 3: I like, I think the market's kind of a little

891
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 3: more efficient, maybe all as COVID news having them bringing

892
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 3: totals down a little bit or something. I don't know,

893
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 3: but that's one of the ones that kind of stood

894
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 3: out to me too.

895
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Raiders Colts defense also matches up well against

896
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 2: the Raiders, right like car wants to have man coverage

897
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,320
Speaker 2: and get you know when he's getting blitzed, and the

898
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: Colts don't blitz. They play a lot of his own.

899
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 2: They also don't allow explosive passing plays and now against yeah,

900
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 2: they're good against run. That's like the Raiders offense right

901
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 2: now is shuck it up for full as the playzer.

902
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 2: That's about it. And it's just it's yeah, you know,

903
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 2: no Waller most likely, and you're just throwing it up

904
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: to Zay Jones and it's just a bad offense right now.

905
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 3: Uh yeah. And you know from what I'm hearing out

906
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 3: of the Raiders kind of you know out of Vegas,

907
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 3: is that Jacobs. You know, he was running angry ass

908
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 3: game and they kind of want to get it more

909
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 3: involved again, you know, they kind of want to just

910
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:24,479
Speaker 3: put the offense on his back. I mean, they scored

911
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 3: seventeen points. They just happened to win the game because

912
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 3: they're facing Drew Lot just like the week before they

913
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 3: happened to face Nick Mollens. But I think you're gonna

914
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,839
Speaker 3: get a run heavy game plan against the Colts as well.

915
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 3: So just two teams that are gonna run ball a lot.

916
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 3: All right, that's gonna wrap it up. For our favorite

917
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 3: totals of the week, Stucky is going with Vegas Indie

918
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 3: under forty four and a half and I'm going Ravens

919
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 3: Rams over forty six and a half. Now it's time

920
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,879
Speaker 3: for our favorite teaser of the week.

921
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

922
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 2: Don't want.

923
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: Don't teaze me please. For those unfamiliar with teasers, it's

924
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 3: when you combine two or more bets and you get

925
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 3: an allotted amount of points to add to the spread

926
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 3: of each of them. Usually six points is the standard,

927
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 3: so it's essentially like a parlay where you're getting six

928
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 3: extra points. That's what we do here, two team and teasers,

929
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 3: two team six point teasers. Stuck has a lot of

930
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 3: great content out on teasers and the key numbers you

931
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 3: should be looking to tease through. You can find that

932
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 3: by googling Stucky and Teasers or searching for it at

933
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com. We're also counting these is one point

934
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 3: for now just with this COVID situation, so three point

935
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: each for our six pack picks point for the total

936
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 3: point for the teaser point. If you sweep as well.

937
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 3: Stuck where you're going with your teaser for week number seventeen.

938
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 2: Not a ton of great teaser options this week. I

939
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 2: don't see any favorites between one and three out there

940
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 2: right now. I don't see any favorites between seven and eight.

941
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 2: What we always want to do here is check to

942
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 2: see if the money line parlay of these two teams

943
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 2: I'm teasing two favorites of around a touchdown down is

944
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 2: cheaper than your teaser if your teasers minus one pointy

945
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 2: check the money line parlay option before you tease two

946
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 2: teams around seven to see if it's cheaper. Obviously, you

947
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 2: don't want to pay more than you don't have to.

948
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,959
Speaker 2: And I'm going to go with the Saints minus one,

949
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 2: teasing them down for minus seven and the Seahawks minus one.

950
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 2: I look, I think that the Saints will get it.

951
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,879
Speaker 2: They should get a lot healthier this week. You won't

952
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: have at the bare minimum, you will not have am

953
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 2: books starting. You're at home against the Panthers team in

954
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 2: free fall mode. Sam Darnold's gonna start. Can't see them

955
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: doing anything against this defense. I think the Saints could

956
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:49,240
Speaker 2: do enough to get this win off an embarrassing performance

957
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 2: which can't really take much from given the state of

958
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 2: their roster, and I think Seattle this line is a

959
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 2: little short here, so I'll take them to get the win.

960
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,399
Speaker 2: In Russell Wilson's likely last home game. Again, it's either

961
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 2: Timmy Boyle or and I know the line have been

962
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: great against the spread, their ten and five against the spread,

963
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 2: but I think Seattle will get a good effort here

964
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: at home final home game probably of Russ's career. And

965
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 2: it's either Timmy Boyle for the Lions or Jared Goff

966
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 2: outdoors and wind and weather, and Jared Goff turns into

967
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: a pumpkin outdoors late in the season. So yeah, I'll

968
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 2: take those two home teams with two great home field advantages.

969
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 2: I think the seahawksers will still give an effort here,

970
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 2: and Saints have a really good shot to make the

971
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: playoffs if they went out, so I think they get

972
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 2: it done here.

973
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not surprised that the Saints are still hanging around.

974
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 3: I figured they would be, and it's it's actually amazing

975
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 3: they have them where they go oh and four with

976
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 3: Sime and Owen one now with Book. So if they

977
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 3: just had Jamis and Taysom, which was the plan all along,

978
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 3: they probably would be fine. It's just that now they've

979
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 3: had they've had to go into like the third and

980
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 3: four string guys. But I mean, yeah, a tough matchup

981
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 3: for Carolina on a road, good defense should have some

982
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 3: guys back. So my first teaser is going to be

983
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay also teasing them from thirteen and a half

984
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:08,959
Speaker 3: down to seven and a half. I already talked about,

985
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 3: you know, them just rolling over teams, bad teams, twenty

986
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 3: three point four margin of victory five and oh straight

987
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:18,800
Speaker 3: up five and oh against the spread. So it's another

988
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 3: way for me to invest in Tampa, who I still

989
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 3: think gets done. You know, maybe the market's going a

990
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 3: little down to them without you know, arians and some guys,

991
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,399
Speaker 3: but I think they have more than enough year jets.

992
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,839
Speaker 3: Let now spot but the other one because I'm looking

993
00:49:32,880 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 3: for a way to invest in this and I might

994
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:38,439
Speaker 3: also consider just moneyline Parlangy's but you know as well.

995
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 3: But I've been looking for a way to invest in

996
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 3: the Patriots here, So I'm gonna tease them from fourteen

997
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 3: and a half at bet MGM to eight and a

998
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 3: half against the Jaguars, and simply to do with rookie

999
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 3: quarterback on the road against the Belichick defense. He's still

1000
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 3: never lost to a rookie quarterback in Foxborough? Has Bill

1001
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:01,839
Speaker 3: Belichick here? So look at the Patriots they are. It's

1002
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 3: another one of these mismatches, you know, like plus eight

1003
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 3: point five point differential that's fourth best for New England Jaguars,

1004
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 3: minus eleven point nine that's worse in the NFL. So

1005
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 3: it's about a twenty point twenty and a half point

1006
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 3: difference between these two teams. Schedule adjusted, it actually goes

1007
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 3: up to about twenty one points. And then you also

1008
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:21,880
Speaker 3: have you know, Jacksonville. They've lost by nine or more

1009
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 3: points in nine of their fifteen games, nine of their

1010
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 3: thirteen losses. So, uh, you know, better than fifty to

1011
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,839
Speaker 3: fifty shot, you know, just regardless of the opponent pretty much.

1012
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 3: But this is a strong opponent, a really tough opponent

1013
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 3: for them. You have Belichick off a loss forty seven

1014
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 3: and twenty two, sixty eight percent against the spread since three.

1015
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 3: You have Belichick sixty percent against the spread, off a

1016
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 3: multi game losing streak, and off a double digit loss

1017
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 3: because remember they lost, you know, by a couple of

1018
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 3: scores to the Bills last week twenty one and eight

1019
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 3: against the spread, seventy two percent since two thousand and three.

1020
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 3: So I know some of it is with Tom Brady,

1021
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 3: that's what everyone's gonna say. But this is a Belichick game,

1022
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:03,919
Speaker 3: you know, rookie quarterback on the road, terrible Jags team

1023
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 3: that you know probably should have beat the Jets but

1024
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,800
Speaker 3: couldn't even beat the Jets, which you know in the

1025
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 3: Patriots they think, I think you finally get a good

1026
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: game for them after a couple of not so good

1027
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 3: ones here. I just I don't think the defense is

1028
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 3: gonna give up many points, if any at all, So

1029
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 3: teasing them down to eight and a half, that's gonna

1030
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,800
Speaker 3: wrap it for a teasers. Stuck is going to Seahawks

1031
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 3: teasing them down from minus seven to minus one against

1032
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 3: the Lions and the Saints from minus seven to minus

1033
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 3: one against the Panthers. I'm going with the Bucks from

1034
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 3: thirteen and a half to seven and a half against

1035
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 3: the Jets and the Patriots from fourteen and a half

1036
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 3: to eight and a half against the Jags. Now it's

1037
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:49,320
Speaker 3: time for our money line underdog parlay. Turning good weekends

1038
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:54,280
Speaker 3: into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.

1039
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 3: All right, Stuck, we came like within two yards of

1040
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 3: winning another one, your bills hit my Jags came up

1041
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 3: just short. That's what I get for breaking my ruin

1042
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 3: Brenning on the Jags other than no urban so it

1043
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 3: wasn't really a rule. But where are you going for

1044
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 3: your money line dog this week?

1045
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're already talking about this game. I think there's

1046
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: some regression come for this Chiefs team, and I think

1047
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: it's a good matchup for Since he loved that, Logan

1048
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 2: Wilson is back practicing. Give me Joe Burr and I'll go.

1049
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 3: With you went on one of my spread picks, I'll

1050
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 3: go at one of yours. I like the Ravens a

1051
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 3: plus one fifty five at bet MGM at home against

1052
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 3: the Rams. I think you get a great effort from

1053
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,960
Speaker 3: the Ravens. I think the crowd is involved. Schematically, I

1054
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:36,839
Speaker 3: think you know the Ravens are in a better spot

1055
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 3: than they would be against most defenses this season, even

1056
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 3: though the Rams have talent. I think schematically it's still

1057
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 3: an edge for the Ravens with how well they play

1058
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 3: against zone compared to man coverage. Sean McVay off a

1059
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 3: multi game winning streak nine and twenty one against the

1060
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 3: spread thirty percent three and four this season, even after

1061
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 3: that win and cover against the Vikings, and yeah, Stafford,

1062
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 3: you already mentioned it against the spread on the money line.

1063
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:04,240
Speaker 3: Stafford verse teams with winning records twenty three and fifty

1064
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 3: four straight up thirty percent with the Lions, two and

1065
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,439
Speaker 3: three with the Rams. So he still hasn't gotten five

1066
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 3: hundred here against teams winning records even you know on

1067
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:18,400
Speaker 3: this you know jugging more, what kind of potential jugger

1068
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 3: out of a Rams team here? So spend one of

1069
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 3: these McVeigh letdown spots. Been a Stafford let down spot.

1070
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:26,720
Speaker 3: You talked about it in depth. Give me the Ravens.

1071
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: So this parlay Bengals plus one ninety Ravens plus one

1072
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 3: fifty five a payout of six point four x roughly,

1073
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 3: which means one hundred dollars Bett return seven hundred and forty.

1074
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,439
Speaker 3: So this should be a good one. We've been hitting

1075
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 3: these and then if one of us doesn't hit him,

1076
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:45,959
Speaker 3: the other one does. So feel good. Feel good about

1077
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 3: this six over six to one payout here. Let's let's

1078
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 3: get it pop in, let's get this money.

1079
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:57,720
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1080
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1097
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1098
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:59,800
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1099
00:54:59,880 --> 00:55:03,560
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1100
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:06,400
Speaker 1: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado

1101
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 1: and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania,

1102
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 1: in West Virginia, one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,

1103
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 1: one eight hundred two seven zero seven to one to

1104
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 1: one seven in Michigan, one eight hundred eight eight nine

1105
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets

1106
00:55:19,560 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 1: off in Iowa, or one eight eight eight five three

1107
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: two thirty five hundred in Virginia. Nuts sink not available

1108
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,879
Speaker 1: in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back

1109
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:28,080
Speaker 1: to the.

1110
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 3: Show, and now let's get into the best of the rest.

1111
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: Which are the games that we did not discuss in

1112
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 3: any other segment. All right, First up, we got those

1113
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:41,560
Speaker 3: Houston Texans going to San Francisco Frisco. Twelve and a

1114
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 3: half point favorites. That total is forty four. I'm not

1115
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 3: gonna lie. I thought about the Texans as a long

1116
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 3: shot money lined dog, probably going against Trey Lance. Got

1117
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 3: like fifteen guys back off the COVID list. Shanahan twelve

1118
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 3: and twenty one and one against the spread thirty six

1119
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 3: percent is a favorite. Not including when he's off a

1120
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 3: buy so not including long rest. But I don't know.

1121
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 3: The Houston just too much of a public team. They're

1122
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 3: getting eighty five percent of the bets. San Francisco is

1123
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 3: getting ninety four percent of the money. So I guess,

1124
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 3: you know, I don't really have too much of a

1125
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 3: feel for it. I just think there's a lot of variance.

1126
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 3: Like I think like Houston could win the game. I

1127
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,759
Speaker 3: think San Francisco could blow him out. But the fact

1128
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:25,320
Speaker 3: that the public's on Houston, that big money's on San Francisco,

1129
00:56:25,360 --> 00:56:27,399
Speaker 3: it's kind of a stay away for me because I'm

1130
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 3: definitely not betting San Francisco.

1131
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:33,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make this right. Around two touchdowns. Houston pretty

1132
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,320
Speaker 2: much won their Super Bowl last year last week to

1133
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 2: expect a extra prep for San fran I think they've earlier,

1134
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 2: But I'm around two touchdowns in the no interest awful.

1135
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:48,839
Speaker 3: Game Denver at the Chargers, Denver six and a half

1136
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 3: point underdogs on a road the total forty five and

1137
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 3: a half. What I consider the charges for my teaser. Again,

1138
00:56:56,280 --> 00:57:00,080
Speaker 3: I just don't think this Broncos offense can operate with

1139
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:02,680
Speaker 3: Drew Locke. Even though I saw a tweet I wish

1140
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:05,160
Speaker 3: I remember who tweeted it, but essentially the was that

1141
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 3: PFF graded Lock higher than Teddy Bridgewater has been graded

1142
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 3: in any game since twenty fourteen, which I don't know

1143
00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 3: if it was more an indictment of PFF or what.

1144
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 3: But like I mean, I like PFF. Don't get me wrong,

1145
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 3: I quote him all the time. So that's that's not

1146
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 3: a it's not a no shade there. It's just like

1147
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:24,640
Speaker 3: I I didn't see it, and I thought it was

1148
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 3: I thought it was pretty much because of Lock that

1149
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:29,720
Speaker 3: the Raiders were able to stop the run. I mean

1150
00:57:29,800 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 3: Javontai Williams and Melvin Gordon where they combined for like

1151
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 3: ten yards all game long, because you know, they had

1152
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 3: no respect for Lock. So I think there are some

1153
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 3: things that are deeper than that aren't being accounted for

1154
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 3: here when Lock, when you switch from Bridgewater to Lock.

1155
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 3: That's why Bridgewater, you know, is covering about eighty percent

1156
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 3: on the road. Eighty percent is a road dog. So

1157
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:52,680
Speaker 3: I did think about the chargers here they are getting

1158
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 3: exactly fifty percent of the bets but ninety seven percent

1159
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 3: of the money, So I don't necessarily think it's a

1160
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 3: bad teaser piece, but the Chargers are another team that

1161
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 3: the consistency is just not there with them. It's a

1162
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 3: bounce back spot. But Denver did win twenty eight thirteen

1163
00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:12,800
Speaker 3: in La Fangio is thirteen six sixty eight percent against

1164
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 3: the spread off as a as a dog off a loss.

1165
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 3: So if the Chargers are just a little more consistent,

1166
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 3: I would feel better. But and I guess they're getting

1167
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:23,959
Speaker 3: healthier from COVID, but you never know. I mean, they've

1168
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 3: you know, a lot of guys last week. I think

1169
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:28,560
Speaker 3: they still got some guys on it, so who knows.

1170
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 3: But I'd probably stayed away from me. But if any

1171
00:58:31,640 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 3: if I was going to do anything with this game,

1172
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 3: I would just tease it.

1173
00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:35,640
Speaker 2: What about you? Herbert start to struggle little bit with

1174
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 2: Cover two.

1175
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 3: A lot actually Fanjo Special.

1176
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:41,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Broncos confused him a little bit. He threw

1177
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 2: for a lot of yards, but through had some big mistakes.

1178
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 2: I think certain the two picks something to watch there,

1179
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 2: and the Broncos should be able to run the ball here.

1180
00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just Rex Burkhead looked like a Hall

1181
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 2: of Famer last week against the Chargers. I don't know

1182
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:54,760
Speaker 2: if it's locked and it's going to be Lock or

1183
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 2: Bridgewater get seven for sure, Bridgewater's out for sure out.

1184
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 2: If I could get seven or more, I might look

1185
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 2: at the Broncos. Actually might look at the under here too.

1186
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:09,160
Speaker 2: It's the Chargers game. Yeah tough for the Chargers game though,

1187
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:12,920
Speaker 2: but yeah good in a lock game. But nothing real

1188
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 2: strong here.

1189
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 3: I will say it is. And I thought about the

1190
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 3: under two and I got I've gotten burned by a

1191
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:21,440
Speaker 3: couple of Chargers unders. It gets the no I thought

1192
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 3: about against the Giants. I don't think I ended up

1193
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:25,080
Speaker 3: going there, but I did against the Texans and that

1194
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 3: didn't work out. But here's the thing, Like the Lock

1195
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 3: game went over essentially because the Broncos couldn't run the

1196
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:32,200
Speaker 3: ball at all. Now, is that going to be the

1197
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 3: case against the Chargers. Probably not. Chargers should still are

1198
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,920
Speaker 3: still the better team, but that that that does worry me.

1199
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 3: If the Broncos can run the ball and the Chargers

1200
00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 3: do Charger things, or if Herbert commits turnovers and they

1201
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 3: have to do, you know, throw the boat downfield like

1202
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 3: it's just it seems like a recipe for disaster. But

1203
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:52,920
Speaker 3: the total at first glance did seem a little high,

1204
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 3: all right, Dallas Arizona. I was kind of surprised that you, uh,

1205
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 3: we were gonna go back to the well Cliff here,

1206
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:04,320
Speaker 3: he's seventy and seven as an underdog against the spread,

1207
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 3: seventy one percent five and oh the season. But you

1208
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:09,760
Speaker 3: pointed it out last week even though you picked the Cardinals,

1209
01:00:10,160 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 3: that they were, you know, kind of fading and Kingsbury

1210
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 3: has been one, you know, this whole Kingsbury Murray era.

1211
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 3: You know, it's been kind of one to fade down

1212
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 3: the stretch. So, uh, the Sharks are on Dallas here,

1213
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:24,720
Speaker 3: they're getting fifty six percent of the bets, eighty two

1214
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 3: percent of the money as we record this, But we

1215
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:29,960
Speaker 3: have tracked a sharp action as well on the Cowboys.

1216
01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,640
Speaker 3: Is that is that just because you know, people are

1217
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:36,280
Speaker 3: really kind of buying into this this Cardinal fade down

1218
01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:37,280
Speaker 3: the stretch narrative.

1219
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you're if you're you're if you're going

1220
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 2: to bet the Cowboys or you're it's you're buying the

1221
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 2: Cowboys at their peak maybe after a huge win, and

1222
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:46,560
Speaker 2: then selling the Cardinals maybe at their low. I would

1223
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:48,520
Speaker 2: bet the Cardinals again. Last week, of course, it was

1224
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:50,040
Speaker 2: another Cardinals game where I beat the close by a

1225
01:00:50,040 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 2: couple of points and play a bunch of backups and

1226
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 2: can't win. But this time on the Cardinals been the

1227
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 2: death of me this year. But I just I didn't

1228
01:00:56,760 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 2: know the holder for the holder at Cole McCoy by

1229
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 2: the way, cost me like seven points in holding field

1230
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:03,960
Speaker 2: goals was worth so much. And then Cliff Kingsbury one

1231
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 2: of the worst coach games in NFL history, right down

1232
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:08,800
Speaker 2: to the end. But kicking on you know, kicking on

1233
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 2: fourth and threes and going forward on fourth and six's

1234
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 2: just an absolute joke and clown of a coach. Can't

1235
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 2: back him here. Cliff Kingsbury Cowboys started to figure out

1236
01:01:21,360 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 2: their offense last week that it was a really good

1237
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 2: sign for dak is that offense was struggling a bit,

1238
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 2: especially against the like cover two looks. A lot of

1239
01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 2: these quarterbacks are struggling with this year as we go

1240
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:34,439
Speaker 2: back to like two thousand and five when everyone's running

1241
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:38,320
Speaker 2: cover twos again. But yeah, I mean Arizona's fading Dallas

1242
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 2: by the way, running like cover one like fifty two

1243
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:44,440
Speaker 2: percent of the time most in the league. You got

1244
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:46,560
Speaker 2: a dan quid credit and they're getting a ton of pressure.

1245
01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:48,680
Speaker 2: That's kind of how you beat Kyler Murray and it

1246
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:51,160
Speaker 2: looks like they're going to really miss Hopkins and this

1247
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 2: Cardinals team is fading. But I don't. I can't back

1248
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 2: the Cowboys at this number just to pass for me.

1249
01:01:57,080 --> 01:02:02,200
Speaker 3: Cardinals like the Cowboys. I get why the Sharks are

1250
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:05,880
Speaker 3: on him. I again, yeah, not my you know style here.

1251
01:02:06,080 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 3: You know, five and a half not my favorite type

1252
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 3: of number because it's not you know, it's still you know,

1253
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 3: standard deviation in terms of point differential is still around

1254
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 3: a touchdown or so or two touchdowns. So I like,

1255
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 3: it's still a game that could go either way. But

1256
01:02:20,520 --> 01:02:23,360
Speaker 3: you look at Arizona what they've struggled with man coverage.

1257
01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:27,680
Speaker 3: Dallas can do that. Arizona about two almost three yards

1258
01:02:27,720 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 3: worse per attempt versus man than zone. And the reason

1259
01:02:31,680 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 3: the thing about the Cardinals is they just don't see

1260
01:02:33,640 --> 01:02:37,200
Speaker 3: a lot of man coverage ordinarily, because you're worried about

1261
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 3: defender's backs turned with Kyler and you usually don't have

1262
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 3: a guy that can spy him and keep up with

1263
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:46,880
Speaker 3: him athletically. But without Hopkins, it just changes the whole.

1264
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 3: It changes everything because now you're just not as worried

1265
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 3: about the rest of the receiving corps, you know, outside

1266
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 3: of him, like you can single cover Wesley, you can

1267
01:02:55,360 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 3: single cover green you could single cover Kirk, especially if

1268
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:01,760
Speaker 3: you can use Tevron dig So you have options in

1269
01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 3: terms of if you want to read that one safety deep,

1270
01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 3: if you want to kind of bring them up a

1271
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 3: little closer, have two spies on. I mean, there's a

1272
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 3: lot of things you can do and still play man

1273
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 3: coverage now without Hopkins there. So I get why the

1274
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 3: Cowboys are the popular side here. Still don't like it

1275
01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:17,520
Speaker 3: at five and a half. I think it's more of

1276
01:03:17,560 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 3: a for for a game type of situation. You know,

1277
01:03:20,840 --> 01:03:24,240
Speaker 3: Cowboys win by three or four median outcome. But I

1278
01:03:24,320 --> 01:03:27,680
Speaker 3: see why they definitely have a matchup advantage here without Hopkins.

1279
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Carl's see a lot of z own in that division,

1280
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 2: which is another reason why. But yeah, I mean just

1281
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:36,560
Speaker 2: look atline is like three and then that's what you got.

1282
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 2: After last week's results.

1283
01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 3: Finally we got Minnesota going to Lambeau to face the

1284
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:44,480
Speaker 3: Green Bay Packers. I'll have a write up on Action

1285
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 3: network dot com and in the app out later in

1286
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 3: the week for Sunday Night Football. Packers six and a

1287
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 3: half point favorites total forty seven and a half Packers

1288
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:56,920
Speaker 3: public Darling getting sixty seven percent of the bets, sixty

1289
01:03:56,960 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 3: six percent of money. And this is an interesting one

1290
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 3: from a trend perspective. We always talk about Zimmer sixty

1291
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,480
Speaker 3: percent against the spread as a dog, thirty three and

1292
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 3: twenty two in his career, also thirty five and seventeen,

1293
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 3: sixty seven percent against the spread coming off a loss.

1294
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:15,720
Speaker 3: But you're going against Rodgers and Lamboat uh sixty one,

1295
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 3: twenty eight and three, sixty nine percent against the spread

1296
01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:21,480
Speaker 3: when the spread is thirteen or less, including six and

1297
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:24,360
Speaker 3: one this year. He also got Rodgers in a divisional

1298
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:27,120
Speaker 3: home game. In his career, He's twenty five and twelve

1299
01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 3: against the spread sixty eight percent to and zero this year.

1300
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:35,120
Speaker 3: Dalvin Cook's back off the COVID list. Adam Thielen had

1301
01:04:35,160 --> 01:04:38,280
Speaker 3: season ending ankle surgery. And for the Packers, one thing

1302
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:41,640
Speaker 3: I noticed I saw on the transaction logs they activated

1303
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 3: Jayira Alexander, so that could if he plays, that could

1304
01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:48,800
Speaker 3: potentially be massive now that the Vikings don't have to

1305
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:52,120
Speaker 3: and and Rasseul Douglas already playing well for the Packers.

1306
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 3: But I mean, if you get Jai air back in

1307
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 3: any capacity, and it's you're just going against Justin Jefferson.

1308
01:04:57,080 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously you got to stop cook. But you

1309
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 3: know this Viken's offense is a totally different piece. When

1310
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:04,840
Speaker 3: you got the pass and run game kind of complimenting

1311
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 3: each other. If you could take away their past game,

1312
01:05:08,000 --> 01:05:10,320
Speaker 3: then this this package team is gonna get there. You know,

1313
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:12,840
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four points that they need to win this game.

1314
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:16,160
Speaker 3: So I don't know, I might consider a tease, you know,

1315
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:18,600
Speaker 3: kind of begging for it down to a half a point.

1316
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 3: Packers win, you win the bet. But I don't know,

1317
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 3: what do you think of this one?

1318
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be looking to fade. I'm still looking at Faye.

1319
01:05:26,000 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 2: The Packers did so last week. I think they're overvalued.

1320
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 2: They're running better than their margin if you look at

1321
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:32,280
Speaker 2: a lot of their advance metrics. Now their defense is

1322
01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:34,000
Speaker 2: gonna get healthier, then you're gonna get back your back.

1323
01:05:34,040 --> 01:05:35,560
Speaker 2: So it's something you have to keep in mind. But

1324
01:05:35,680 --> 01:05:39,360
Speaker 2: there's things like, you know, if you look at fault

1325
01:05:39,440 --> 01:05:41,360
Speaker 2: like fumble since we gave they've recovered every fumble that

1326
01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:43,160
Speaker 2: they've had. Like there's just a lot of things that

1327
01:05:43,200 --> 01:05:45,800
Speaker 2: they're running well, and they're also not a great, big favorite,

1328
01:05:45,800 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 2: and they like let these teams back in the game

1329
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 2: and they can't defend the run and they play really

1330
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:51,760
Speaker 2: soft defense late. I would need to seven and a

1331
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:53,560
Speaker 2: half here the back of Vikings, it's just a completely

1332
01:05:53,560 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 2: different offense without feeling he's just so big in the

1333
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:59,480
Speaker 2: red zone on third downs. Vikings, by the way, best

1334
01:05:59,520 --> 01:06:01,320
Speaker 2: path of the play else went out. So you got

1335
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:03,440
Speaker 2: to win this game or you're done. And then you

1336
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 2: got to beat the Bears at home, which you should do,

1337
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:06,640
Speaker 2: and then you have to have the Saints and Eagles split,

1338
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 2: so you Saints probably best shot. They lose at Atlanta

1339
01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:11,360
Speaker 2: and then you know the Eagles either lose that Washington

1340
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:14,439
Speaker 2: or Dallas, then you're in so Washington and Beggers aren't

1341
01:06:14,440 --> 01:06:18,560
Speaker 2: dead yet, but they're on life support. And but yeah,

1342
01:06:18,560 --> 01:06:20,080
Speaker 2: I probably need seven and a half. It should be

1343
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:22,280
Speaker 2: a big game for Cook and you're probably gonna feature him,

1344
01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:26,480
Speaker 2: and then if yeah, but if Alexander plays, that's something

1345
01:06:26,560 --> 01:06:28,360
Speaker 2: big to watch because then you can bring your safeties

1346
01:06:28,400 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 2: down even more, you don't have to worry about it

1347
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:31,840
Speaker 2: as much. That's something to watch as well. But I

1348
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 2: would need seven and a half off the Vikings. If

1349
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:36,040
Speaker 2: not pass, I'll look forward to you right now.

1350
01:06:36,560 --> 01:06:39,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is uh, I will say this, This is

1351
01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 3: the reason that Alexander looms so large is because you

1352
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 3: just hit on it, like God, bring the safeties down, uh,

1353
01:06:46,880 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 3: because you can't. You can't back the Packers at six

1354
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:51,440
Speaker 3: and a half after seeing what Nick Chubb did to

1355
01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:54,120
Speaker 3: them last week. I mean, like Kurner and I we

1356
01:06:54,160 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 3: always joke because like you know, my motto, I kind

1357
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 3: of it's like a progressive thing or the more data

1358
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 3: you get, obviously, the more you can project the outlier.

1359
01:07:01,440 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 3: So Nick Chubb I always joke on how like it

1360
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:05,600
Speaker 3: takes me a while to get to like five yards

1361
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 3: per carry with him, you know, like I'm not just

1362
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:09,880
Speaker 3: gonna project him for five yards to carry every season,

1363
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 3: you know, to start, but I'm there now. And he

1364
01:07:12,480 --> 01:07:14,520
Speaker 3: was like, you know, I'm lowering his yards per carry.

1365
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:14,600
Speaker 2: Go.

1366
01:07:14,720 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 3: You know, the old wine is out going against the Packers.

1367
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:18,720
Speaker 3: And then what does Chubb do. He averages like eight

1368
01:07:18,800 --> 01:07:21,120
Speaker 3: yards of carry deering as Johnson averages like eight yards

1369
01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 3: of carry. I mean, this is this is just not

1370
01:07:24,880 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 3: like the Vikings could could definitely win this game. I

1371
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 3: think if if it's just like you know, no Jay

1372
01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 3: are they have to still respect the pass and like

1373
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:35,360
Speaker 3: you just give Cook thirty carries, like there's there's a

1374
01:07:35,400 --> 01:07:37,440
Speaker 3: shot for the Vikers to win this game. But if

1375
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 3: is back, I think I would be teasing the pack

1376
01:07:39,720 --> 01:07:41,560
Speaker 3: down because I do agree on it. They I mean,

1377
01:07:41,560 --> 01:07:43,440
Speaker 3: they've been blowing all these leads, like every week they

1378
01:07:43,520 --> 01:07:45,760
Speaker 3: just blow a big lead. That regression against the spread

1379
01:07:45,840 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 3: is coming. It's it's here. Let's close it out with

1380
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 3: our Survivor pool pick it a week.

1381
01:07:53,960 --> 01:07:54,040
Speaker 2: The.

1382
01:07:59,040 --> 01:08:01,360
Speaker 4: Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1383
01:08:03,000 --> 01:08:06,959
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, we long got eliminated. But for people

1384
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:10,920
Speaker 3: that didn't probably use the Patriots already. You know, if

1385
01:08:10,960 --> 01:08:12,520
Speaker 3: you didn't, obviously I think you want to use them.

1386
01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:14,600
Speaker 3: Belichick's never lost to a rookie quarterback on the road.

1387
01:08:14,680 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 3: But assuming somebody has used the Patriots to any other team,

1388
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:20,200
Speaker 3: like which of those other you know, big favorites kind

1389
01:08:20,240 --> 01:08:20,720
Speaker 3: of sticks out.

1390
01:08:21,520 --> 01:08:24,679
Speaker 2: I actually had the Bucks saved forty nine. Ers are fine,

1391
01:08:24,800 --> 01:08:28,599
Speaker 2: but if you're alive still, you probably don't need our help.

1392
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:30,320
Speaker 2: I think the Saints are a good option here. You

1393
01:08:30,400 --> 01:08:32,400
Speaker 2: might not have used them if you got here at

1394
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:35,040
Speaker 2: home against the Panthers, bounceback spot they should get a

1395
01:08:35,080 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 2: lot healthier of a roster Yattle, So yeah, Seattle. I

1396
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:40,960
Speaker 2: think that those are the probably the two teams you

1397
01:08:41,040 --> 01:08:42,960
Speaker 2: might not have used that I would feel comfortable using

1398
01:08:43,000 --> 01:08:44,120
Speaker 2: either Seattle.

1399
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:46,800
Speaker 3: Obviously, if you haven't used Buffalo, if you haven't used Yeah,

1400
01:08:46,840 --> 01:08:50,519
Speaker 3: San Francisco, if you haven't used Tampa and New England,

1401
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 3: those are the big favorites. All right, that's gonna do

1402
01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:56,840
Speaker 3: it for the week seventeen. Action Network podcast reminder. You

1403
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:58,760
Speaker 3: can follow all the picks on your award winning Action

1404
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:01,760
Speaker 3: Network app. Just search for Sunday six Pack in the

1405
01:09:01,920 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 3: apps follow feature. Also be sure to leave us a

1406
01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:08,640
Speaker 3: five star rating and review on Apple or Spotify. You

1407
01:09:08,720 --> 01:09:12,000
Speaker 3: can find stuck on Twitter at Stucky two. You can

1408
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:14,439
Speaker 3: find me on Twitter at Chris Raybond to find us

1409
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:17,040
Speaker 3: at those same handles in the Action Network app, where

1410
01:09:17,040 --> 01:09:20,240
Speaker 3: you can follow all of our bets or track yours.

1411
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 3: Best of luck, Happy New Year, We'll see you on

1412
01:09:23,320 --> 01:09:25,639
Speaker 3: the other side. Let's keep getting this money.

1413
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:27,519
Speaker 2: Co it in here, Let's cope