1
00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:13,480
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. I am Chad Nooman,

2
00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 1: your host from the Action Network. Today, there's a lot

3
00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,080
Speaker 1: of enthusiasm for the return of sports. The UFC has

4
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:24,239
Speaker 1: come back strong. People are betting it. Brunous Liga is

5
00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:28,600
Speaker 1: getting loads of bets. The match was a massive betting event.

6
00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:33,280
Speaker 1: Tiger Woods film Michelson, Tom Brady, Peyton manning. The NBA

7
00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,479
Speaker 1: is helping to come back in July. But I can

8
00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,839
Speaker 1: tell you right now, nothing matters more than the NFL.

9
00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,640
Speaker 1: And since the schedule release, professional betters throughout the country

10
00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,400
Speaker 1: have been in their labs, working their formula, trying to

11
00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:51,839
Speaker 1: find the opportunities, especially with season win totals, all of

12
00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,280
Speaker 1: which you can find in the Action Network Gap. It's free.

13
00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,600
Speaker 1: Download the Action Network Gap. You'll be able to see

14
00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,120
Speaker 1: season win totals for every team in the NFL. Oh

15
00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 1: to discuss all of this, Joining me from his home

16
00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 1: in New Jersey podcast regular Professional Better Mr Simon Hunter.

17
00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:12,399
Speaker 1: It's going on, brother, Chad, My man's going on. Buddy.

18
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 1: You live in You're surviving, You're getting through this time.

19
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,200
Speaker 1: It's like it's kind of not that different for you. No,

20
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,920
Speaker 1: it's actually it's it's funny where I mean, I guess

21
00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,840
Speaker 1: the taking little vacations and relaxing took a quick quick break.

22
00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:26,760
Speaker 1: I mean only got like a month before the pandemic

23
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,520
Speaker 1: started right after the Super Bowl. But it gave me

24
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,760
Speaker 1: just more time just to dive and everything, and it

25
00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 1: was really really fun just tinkering with everything just because

26
00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:38,360
Speaker 1: oh we had is time. So everyone can put time

27
00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,720
Speaker 1: to what they want to do, and I always put

28
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 1: time to football, so it just gave me more time

29
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,360
Speaker 1: to do what I love. So it's nice, all right.

30
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:47,680
Speaker 1: So I want to talk about season win totals, and

31
00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,600
Speaker 1: I want to look at him from a few different perspectives,

32
00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:51,640
Speaker 1: and by the end of this we will have touched

33
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,520
Speaker 1: on just about every single team. But first, the way

34
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,640
Speaker 1: the foundation, like people who are just starting to do this,

35
00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,160
Speaker 1: people are locked up at home. Schedules are out, um

36
00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:05,400
Speaker 1: draft has happened, free agency has happened. What do you

37
00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,320
Speaker 1: do when the schedules come out? Like? Are you how

38
00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,760
Speaker 1: are you creating your formulas for season win totals? So

39
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,680
Speaker 1: so basically when I do, I go team by team

40
00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:18,399
Speaker 1: and I'm just putting all the data in for that,

41
00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,919
Speaker 1: the same data I'll be using for the beginning of

42
00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,040
Speaker 1: the season, I'll think, or with it as the Pricesson

43
00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,519
Speaker 1: goes on, you can get more data and figure out

44
00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,560
Speaker 1: what teams are running. System wise, it's schematically and like

45
00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,200
Speaker 1: the players they brought in, how do they fit into

46
00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 1: these systems? Because people do get it, that are diehard fans,

47
00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,040
Speaker 1: that people that are new to betting in football, they

48
00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,280
Speaker 1: don't get how much of a turnover sport is. That's

49
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,640
Speaker 1: why as a pro it's the best because there's just

50
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,240
Speaker 1: so much value in a sport where I think, what

51
00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:47,720
Speaker 1: is it every year there's six new teams in the playoffs,

52
00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,720
Speaker 1: are four new teams in the playoffs, So it's it's

53
00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,880
Speaker 1: just the league where there's just constant turnover. So when

54
00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:54,840
Speaker 1: you're looking at it, you're trying to see what people

55
00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,840
Speaker 1: aren't gona see and you're trying to just find that value.

56
00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,000
Speaker 1: So when you're doing see the win totals that I mean,

57
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,400
Speaker 1: we talked, I think it was the middle of March,

58
00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,239
Speaker 1: early March, just like they put up lines already, and

59
00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,360
Speaker 1: I gave out the Cardinals and I gave about Denver.

60
00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:10,760
Speaker 1: So when I gave out the Cardinals, they're they're wind

61
00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,200
Speaker 1: totals six And now the Sharps have hit it. It's

62
00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,920
Speaker 1: up to seven and a half, and that's one of

63
00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:18,080
Speaker 1: those where there was value and you can still take

64
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,959
Speaker 1: that Cardinals over, but there's not as a pro there's

65
00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,120
Speaker 1: just isn't value anymore just because the number has already

66
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,760
Speaker 1: been bought up. So when we go through these season

67
00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,560
Speaker 1: wind totals, we're just we're pretty much saying that this

68
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 1: is where the value is because there isn't gonna be

69
00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 1: valued every single on a lot of these are public teams,

70
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,040
Speaker 1: they're gonna be bet up by now, so you need

71
00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:36,520
Speaker 1: to just try to find the value in the wind

72
00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,800
Speaker 1: totals that we're the odds of this team hitting this number,

73
00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,560
Speaker 1: and you just pretty much I hope for the best

74
00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,960
Speaker 1: when the season starts, right, But when you say that

75
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,600
Speaker 1: there's a lot of turnover in this league, that actually,

76
00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 1: I don't know that people think about it that way

77
00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,920
Speaker 1: because when they're making their odds for season wind totals,

78
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,480
Speaker 1: I think they're oftentimes thinking what quarterback has gone, what

79
00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,480
Speaker 1: running back is gone, what skill positions player is gone.

80
00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,200
Speaker 1: So if you're thinking about the turnover and where the

81
00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,520
Speaker 1: value is, how deep are you going into the roster?

82
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,000
Speaker 1: You have to look at it from There's so many

83
00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 1: different angles in football, but the biggest one is the

84
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,159
Speaker 1: quarterback position. So the year Patrick Mahomes game, and it

85
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,520
Speaker 1: was his first year started, so he had the week seventeen,

86
00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,560
Speaker 1: he looked amazing and coming into his rookie year or

87
00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,360
Speaker 1: his second year, but it was his first year of starting.

88
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:26,640
Speaker 1: You're you're looking at that in the value that this

89
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,159
Speaker 1: is an eight year read system. This kid seems like

90
00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,000
Speaker 1: he's got an arm and I think they're over under

91
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:32,640
Speaker 1: that year with seven and a half of eight. And

92
00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:34,479
Speaker 1: so you just look at that number right there, it's like,

93
00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,800
Speaker 1: if this guy fits the system, well, the lowest number

94
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:39,720
Speaker 1: I can see them hitting as nine. So you hit

95
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,719
Speaker 1: that kind of over where this year. The quarterback craft,

96
00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,120
Speaker 1: there isn't something like that where you have you can

97
00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,160
Speaker 1: see a quarterback coming into a new system and it's

98
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,040
Speaker 1: really gonna spark that quarterback. I know a lot of people,

99
00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,360
Speaker 1: I mean, we can start with a lot of people

100
00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,200
Speaker 1: are gonna love Joe Burrow. I mean people are just

101
00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:58,719
Speaker 1: obsessed with Joe bur and I get it. That was

102
00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,960
Speaker 1: seriously in the most fun college teams I've ever seen.

103
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,360
Speaker 1: But if you look at that roster yet his whole

104
00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,080
Speaker 1: team was drafted in the first round. So Joe Burrow

105
00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,240
Speaker 1: is going from playing with arguably the greatest college offense

106
00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,640
Speaker 1: ever with some of the greatest talent ever on his

107
00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,640
Speaker 1: team to the Cincinnati Bagels. Fuit, Yeah, they had talent,

108
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 1: but in my system, when my great out there, they're

109
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,680
Speaker 1: seriously want to the worst offensive lines. I mean, the

110
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,000
Speaker 1: battle line is terrible, and I don't like their coach.

111
00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 1: Where you can tell a lot by how a team

112
00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,599
Speaker 1: adjust at halftime, and the Bengals were dominated time and

113
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,400
Speaker 1: time again last year in the second half. So people

114
00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,600
Speaker 1: need to start thinking, yeah, Joe Burrow is great, but

115
00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:38,760
Speaker 1: you have to look at the pieces of around. He

116
00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:40,480
Speaker 1: doesn't have a good head coach, He's got a battle

117
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 1: line that just reeks for a disaster first year for him.

118
00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:45,920
Speaker 1: So do you ever under them first five and a

119
00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,520
Speaker 1: half for the season. I love, I love the value

120
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,200
Speaker 1: of the five under and a five and a half

121
00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,120
Speaker 1: under in that division. I just think he's not gonna

122
00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,840
Speaker 1: it's not gonna be all roses going undefeated in college football.

123
00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:58,200
Speaker 1: He's gonna's gonna get hit in the mouth and it's

124
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,800
Speaker 1: gonna be tough from good just al right, So the

125
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,599
Speaker 1: under five and a half is actually plus money right now.

126
00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 1: I think that's uh plus one oh two. And that

127
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,480
Speaker 1: tells you a little bit about what the public is thinking.

128
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:16,800
Speaker 1: Because Joe Burrow was such a prominent they love him, right,

129
00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,279
Speaker 1: And that's that's sort of the difference of the question

130
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,520
Speaker 1: I'm asking. Right, you're looking at offensive line, you're looking

131
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:27,240
Speaker 1: as deep as halftime adjustments made by the coach and all.

132
00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,279
Speaker 1: Anybody that's betting from the public perspective is going to think, Oh,

133
00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,960
Speaker 1: it's Joe Burrow, Heisman winner, glory boy, you know that's

134
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:35,600
Speaker 1: that he's going to be the number one pick. He's

135
00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,440
Speaker 1: he's the number one pick. He's going to turn that

136
00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:40,920
Speaker 1: team around immediately. And like in my system, like when

137
00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,080
Speaker 1: I do the simulations of the whole season, I got

138
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,800
Speaker 1: them at three point six wins, Like, so the odds

139
00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:49,000
Speaker 1: of them exceeding five and a half is like that's

140
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 1: a you know, two three hundred games that a hundred

141
00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 1: seasons they played. That he might be able to do that,

142
00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,600
Speaker 1: but it's just the odds are stacked way against them.

143
00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,000
Speaker 1: From the coaching staff. He's going into to the offensive line,

144
00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,159
Speaker 1: all right, we got Bengals under five and a half

145
00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:11,240
Speaker 1: you love that, Um, you've simulated them at under four winds. Uh,

146
00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:12,960
Speaker 1: let me ask you the question before we get into

147
00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,280
Speaker 1: some teams. I like that we're cheasing people a little

148
00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:19,840
Speaker 1: bit here. How do you feel about tying your money

149
00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,160
Speaker 1: up for an entire season? And how many units do

150
00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,720
Speaker 1: you end up putting on these versus a regular season game.

151
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,520
Speaker 1: So for for most people like that are starting out

152
00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,440
Speaker 1: and just they're doing this for a side hustle and

153
00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,640
Speaker 1: just trying to build a bankroll before you have a

154
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,200
Speaker 1: real bank I'll say a real bank roll is ten

155
00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,320
Speaker 1: thousand dollars for most people for gambling that that's that's

156
00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 1: legit bankroll. Most common people are gonna be using like

157
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 1: a thousand bucks for a season. So if you're doing

158
00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,440
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff, you're doing win totals, you should

159
00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,360
Speaker 1: have maybe only do two or three you really like

160
00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,160
Speaker 1: and maybe put twenty of thirty dollars and you don't

161
00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,120
Speaker 1: don't put too much because for most people this is

162
00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,640
Speaker 1: like for prose, we're just finding really good edges here

163
00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:01,880
Speaker 1: and next bet on, mostly there's gonna be a thousand.

164
00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,600
Speaker 1: Most casinos don't want that kind of liability. So it's

165
00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,120
Speaker 1: one of those if you're building a bank roll, you

166
00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,440
Speaker 1: should only be doing maybe three or forties, because I do.

167
00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 1: I do every single team because there's value obviously every

168
00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,280
Speaker 1: single one. But you don't want to be you don't

169
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:17,960
Speaker 1: want to be putting all your bank rolls so early

170
00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:19,840
Speaker 1: in the season, Like like when I told you those

171
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,120
Speaker 1: long shots like a month ago to Denver in Arizona.

172
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,720
Speaker 1: That's a nice one where you're throwing a hundred bucks

173
00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,080
Speaker 1: on it, you can win five thousands. So those are

174
00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:28,320
Speaker 1: the kind of things you want to do with your

175
00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,480
Speaker 1: bankroll where you want to take those long shot up

176
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,080
Speaker 1: sides where if you only hit one every ten years,

177
00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,120
Speaker 1: it's gonna pay you back tenfold. So that's what I'm

178
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,280
Speaker 1: talking about, was like upside long shots. All right, hold on,

179
00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,680
Speaker 1: you just said to me that you might put a

180
00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:46,520
Speaker 1: futures bet on all thirty two NFL teams. Definitely, But

181
00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 1: there's gonna be ones I'm gonna hit kind of fifteen

182
00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,079
Speaker 1: times in a month, and then I hit him again

183
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,600
Speaker 1: right before the season starts, where it's like they're not adjusting.

184
00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:56,720
Speaker 1: The public still going the other way, and I'm reading

185
00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,199
Speaker 1: it really well, Like the easiest one that stood outlast

186
00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,280
Speaker 1: year was stamp in. So Sam Fryan Jimmy g was

187
00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:04,600
Speaker 1: coming back and I even saw him up from their backup.

188
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,400
Speaker 1: That was like in this kid's second year, I could

189
00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,480
Speaker 1: see him winning eight games. So that's what they're they're

190
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 1: over under. Last year was eight seven and a half.

191
00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,360
Speaker 1: That that's to me is just easy money. Where they

192
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 1: were the bottom of the league the year before. So

193
00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,440
Speaker 1: they're getting an easy schedule and all they need is

194
00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,400
Speaker 1: a QB to stay healthy for maybe half the year.

195
00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,760
Speaker 1: They're starting quarterback and they're gonna probably hit that over.

196
00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,600
Speaker 1: So those are the things we're looking for. You're looking for, Well,

197
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,240
Speaker 1: there's value where other people aren't seen it. They're just

198
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,120
Speaker 1: gonna think, oh, the same thing is gonna happen again.

199
00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,320
Speaker 1: The Rams will win that division, the Seattle will come

200
00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 1: in second, and Sam Fran will be in the body.

201
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,280
Speaker 1: So it's just funny how people are just so stuck

202
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,439
Speaker 1: on the year before, they're not looking for what's more

203
00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:42,320
Speaker 1: likely to happen the following year. How much have you

204
00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 1: changed your strategy for this year and tying up that

205
00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,200
Speaker 1: kind of money not knowing yet what's going to happen

206
00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:52,080
Speaker 1: in the fall. Uh, I honestly was worried, like I

207
00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:55,400
Speaker 1: did future bets um right after the Super Bowl, like

208
00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,120
Speaker 1: I always do that right before I go away for

209
00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,680
Speaker 1: a little break, like teams I like like the Tampa

210
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,520
Speaker 1: Bay and I did that not knowing at all that

211
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,280
Speaker 1: Brave is going back there. I just saw enough that

212
00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,559
Speaker 1: if Winston just threw half his interceptions, they're gonna be

213
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,000
Speaker 1: in the playoffs and fifty one that's great odds to

214
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,960
Speaker 1: win the super Bowl. But it's now the point where

215
00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,200
Speaker 1: I'm not nervous at all, because it's just the way

216
00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,840
Speaker 1: people's attitudes are towards, especially different states, how people are acting.

217
00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,600
Speaker 1: It just seems like everyone's gonna be comfortable enough that

218
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,880
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a season and there's still gonna be

219
00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,760
Speaker 1: fans in the stadium. Like I was starting to work

220
00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:29,640
Speaker 1: on a whole different part of my system where I

221
00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:31,880
Speaker 1: was gonna deduct teams I usually have a good home

222
00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,640
Speaker 1: crowd advantage, and they were're gonna have fans anymore, and

223
00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,640
Speaker 1: that was really gonna hurt them. That's a really big

224
00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,280
Speaker 1: deal no fans in the stadium. But it sounds like

225
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,640
Speaker 1: that there's gonna be fans, So I'm not too worried

226
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,040
Speaker 1: yet about that. But you might have to you might

227
00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,760
Speaker 1: have to address for that. It might not be fans.

228
00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:52,640
Speaker 1: We actually don't know yet and and if that comes down,

229
00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:54,960
Speaker 1: it depends on like the certain states and what they're

230
00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 1: gonna do. But like the obvious teams like the like

231
00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,679
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks, the Eagles, I mean, there's plenty of

232
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,400
Speaker 1: teams where people know they're that home field advantage, and

233
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,040
Speaker 1: if there aren't those fans in that stadium, some teams

234
00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,400
Speaker 1: are gonna lose two to three points just just off

235
00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,960
Speaker 1: that off the spread. I think those Vegas is gonna

236
00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:14,560
Speaker 1: do the same thing like that. Some of these Week

237
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,680
Speaker 1: one lines, they were doing that already kind of, so

238
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,160
Speaker 1: it is funny to see that. I think most people

239
00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,199
Speaker 1: are guessing now at this point there's anny fans in

240
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:24,520
Speaker 1: the stadium. Alright, So you mentioned I want to talk

241
00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 1: about some of the headlines coming out of the season

242
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,320
Speaker 1: so far, coming out of the off season, you mentioned

243
00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,600
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, the Bucks. Their season win total. Right now,

244
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,360
Speaker 1: looking in the Action Network Gap which is free, you

245
00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,800
Speaker 1: can download again every season win total. Oh god, okay,

246
00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,120
Speaker 1: let's see the Bucks are at over nine and a

247
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,160
Speaker 1: half minus under nine and a half minus one tent

248
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,760
Speaker 1: so bookmakers are asking you to bet the under here.

249
00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,200
Speaker 1: How did that adjust after the Tom Brady news and

250
00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,199
Speaker 1: how do you grade that one? It's funny when you

251
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,560
Speaker 1: graded out that Brady is only a positive over Winston

252
00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,640
Speaker 1: because of the non turn members that that is like

253
00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,440
Speaker 1: a huge deal and the sense that the Bucks were

254
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,680
Speaker 1: always behind. So when you're grading out their defense, especially

255
00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:07,480
Speaker 1: for this coming here, they're they're grated out there. But

256
00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,439
Speaker 1: like Daniel Jones for the Giants tore them up. People

257
00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,199
Speaker 1: people probably remember that it was like the second coming

258
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 1: of the Eli. He he literally went to town on

259
00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,000
Speaker 1: Tampa's defense. So coming in this year, they've kind of

260
00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 1: made a couple of adjustments on their defense where they

261
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,040
Speaker 1: seem like they've approved on that side, and obviously they

262
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,000
Speaker 1: got Tom Brady and Bronk on the offensive side where

263
00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 1: the public is going to hit that that that nine

264
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,560
Speaker 1: and a half, I think it maybe to opened that

265
00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:33,480
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Nine it's gone up to nine

266
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,600
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, that's that kind of thing where

267
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,160
Speaker 1: as we're all looking at it that that's a great number.

268
00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,160
Speaker 1: But as a sharp I have to think I'll wait

269
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,040
Speaker 1: for this to get to ten and then I'll just

270
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 1: take beyonder and just I think they'll they'll not go

271
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,320
Speaker 1: nine and seven and that really hard division where Atlanta

272
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:54,160
Speaker 1: has only gotten better, and it's it's one of those

273
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,320
Speaker 1: where you really you look at it and you just

274
00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,760
Speaker 1: think to yourself, and that division, it's really hard to

275
00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:02,480
Speaker 1: get ten wins. You need a lot of things to

276
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:04,760
Speaker 1: go your way to get ten wins. So I can

277
00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,120
Speaker 1: see where the public is taking. It's Tom Brady revenge Tour.

278
00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,120
Speaker 1: He's the goat. We saw that golf swing. Charles Barkley

279
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:11,640
Speaker 1: is talking to ship to him. He hits the right

280
00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:13,840
Speaker 1: in the hole. He's just that kind of player where

281
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,640
Speaker 1: he's piste off and he's mad, and that's when he's

282
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,280
Speaker 1: really dangerous. There's a pro I have to take that under.

283
00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,480
Speaker 1: That's just it's just hard to think of them getting

284
00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,400
Speaker 1: ten wins. God, you mentioned the division, which is really

285
00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,000
Speaker 1: really important. And Sean Payton had that really funny tweet

286
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,560
Speaker 1: during the match about this being the Tom Brady that

287
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,040
Speaker 1: he hopes comes to Temp Bay. Flip side of that,

288
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:37,000
Speaker 1: flip side of that is the paths without Tom Brady

289
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 1: we're looking at. I think we were looking at over

290
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,360
Speaker 1: nine minus one oh two, under nine minus one twelve.

291
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:49,720
Speaker 1: Still a ton of respect for New England at nine wins.

292
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,000
Speaker 1: And it's funny and so like going through everything, like

293
00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:55,920
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of numbers on Stindham, he

294
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,400
Speaker 1: didn't play that much. And even in college he was

295
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,200
Speaker 1: in all world. He was just like just a solid

296
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,719
Speaker 1: quarterback who had the upper body and the strength and

297
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,040
Speaker 1: the arm that the Patriots come front taking him where

298
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,880
Speaker 1: they did that. I I get why they're just holding

299
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 1: pat here and they're just saying him or Horrior, that's

300
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,840
Speaker 1: good enough for us, because that's Bilichick system. He's saying,

301
00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,040
Speaker 1: we don't need something so great to run this system.

302
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 1: It's all about the weapons around him, the system I

303
00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:23,920
Speaker 1: run week the week because he's always changing their office

304
00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,320
Speaker 1: own system with McDaniels. So it's it is one of

305
00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:31,160
Speaker 1: those where nine is a high number because when I

306
00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 1: ran it through surprising the Bills where the outs getting

307
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 1: favored in that division, like I got them at ten

308
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,880
Speaker 1: and a half winds, So the Bills really stick out,

309
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,120
Speaker 1: is that the leader in that division where the Patriots

310
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,560
Speaker 1: they seem like they're gonna have it down year this

311
00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:47,760
Speaker 1: year because no one's really sure what they're gonna do

312
00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,840
Speaker 1: here at the quarterback position. Can we really trust in

313
00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 1: them to get us nine wins and stuff to say?

314
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:55,760
Speaker 1: So you don't have an opinion on this one yet.

315
00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,280
Speaker 1: I'm waiting. I've been waiting on the stumber because I

316
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,000
Speaker 1: need to see this had played there, So there are

317
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:02,840
Speaker 1: some of that I don't bet right away, Like I'll

318
00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:04,680
Speaker 1: wait in the preseason to see some some more on

319
00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,280
Speaker 1: this kid, just because from what I saw last year,

320
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,560
Speaker 1: he was all world of preseason and then and that's

321
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 1: when he played in the regular season. He just cann't

322
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,920
Speaker 1: slept their own picks. So I'm gonna wait on the

323
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,880
Speaker 1: Patriots one. But Eileen, yes over Oh no, you you

324
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,920
Speaker 1: like the You just mentioned the bills to bills are

325
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:26,560
Speaker 1: over nine minus one, so a pretty juicy price saying

326
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,440
Speaker 1: the over You haven't the ten and a half wins

327
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 1: in your projections? Are you better off taking the Bills

328
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,600
Speaker 1: to win the division? I like that number. I mean,

329
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 1: I know the whole Ed Oliver thing happened, and that

330
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,400
Speaker 1: does worry me because I loved him. He is a force,

331
00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:45,320
Speaker 1: but I just loved the pieces around him. The big

332
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 1: thing makes me nervous because like, who knows, in Week six,

333
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 1: bigs might be throwing tangents on the sideline because Josh

334
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 1: Allen spreading the ball around not get him to him enough.

335
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 1: But I think it's first year. Maybe you just will

336
00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,640
Speaker 1: ride the ship and just stay at the course for

337
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,320
Speaker 1: the team. And the way the system staid up there

338
00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 1: in the shows really lined up perfectly for the Bills

339
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 1: to really capitalize in my down here from the Patriots.

340
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 1: So the a f C East odds right now the

341
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:18,680
Speaker 1: Bills at plus one. Yeah, that's a good number. Yeah,

342
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 1: that's a good number, you know. And it's funny. I

343
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 1: remember Sin the last podcast. I do like the Jets,

344
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 1: but that's they're like a year or two away. I

345
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 1: do love what Joe Douglas is doing there. That mean,

346
00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 1: his first draft, that was a great draft. This past draft.

347
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,560
Speaker 1: I just don't think they're on the same level of

348
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 1: the Patriots or the Bills yet. We're just we're just

349
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 1: racing through these teams. I know, when you and I

350
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,200
Speaker 1: texted the other day about doing this, I didn't think

351
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,120
Speaker 1: we'd end up going through every team, but I feel

352
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 1: like we're gonna end up going through every team. I'm

353
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 1: making notes on every team, so um so the other team,

354
00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 1: the other team that you said, You've got a lot

355
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,560
Speaker 1: of questions about it. I'm bouncing around division to division.

356
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 1: There's no rhyme or reason here. But it doesn't really matter,

357
00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,160
Speaker 1: because if you're betting, you're not just looking for your

358
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 1: favorite team. You look for the best value. You've been

359
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 1: getting a lot of the question about You've been getting

360
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:07,200
Speaker 1: a lot of questions about the Bears and their QB controversy,

361
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,679
Speaker 1: Nick Foles or Mitch Dubinsky. Tell me what people are

362
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 1: asking you and what you're feeling is on this team. Yeah,

363
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:15,720
Speaker 1: I was. I was joking with a couple and I

364
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,240
Speaker 1: was like, Wow, Chad must really have a Chicago radio

365
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,119
Speaker 1: shower or something, because I half these people reach it

366
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:21,959
Speaker 1: out from there just die. Our Bear fens are kind

367
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 1: of cracking me up. But basically they're all wondering what

368
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,720
Speaker 1: are we better off with? Are we better off with Poles?

369
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 1: Are we better off with Trabinsky? And I try to

370
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 1: bring it down with that, this, this offense that your

371
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:36,919
Speaker 1: team runs is the offense we pretty much won the

372
00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 1: Super Bowl with Nick Foles, And it's your quick first

373
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 1: read and if it's not there, he already knows the

374
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,199
Speaker 1: defensive from him where the second read will be the

375
00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 1: way the defense set up, so this it's a perfect

376
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 1: scheme for Nick Poles. So my hoping is that he

377
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:56,199
Speaker 1: beats out Trabinsky in the preseason. Hopefully they have a

378
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,440
Speaker 1: presence so you can do it, and it lines up

379
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 1: where the Bears over under this for the win. So

380
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,680
Speaker 1: those eight and a half, and I think some books

381
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,160
Speaker 1: are gonna have the plus money. So basically last year

382
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 1: was the season from hell. They went eight and eight.

383
00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,840
Speaker 1: So if Nick Foles or even Trebiscuit, even I don't

384
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:16,720
Speaker 1: love Trebisky, if I think he can run the offense,

385
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:21,440
Speaker 1: he'll be better than obviously was last year. Hopefully, Um

386
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,159
Speaker 1: it just lines up perfectly with everyone knows Green Bay

387
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: is gonna not have a great season as they did

388
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 1: last year. There's gonna be wins in that division for

389
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:30,680
Speaker 1: the Bears again, and they're gonna have an easier schedule.

390
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:32,879
Speaker 1: Day and a half feels a gimme where I have

391
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:34,959
Speaker 1: them great at ten wins for the season the Bears.

392
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 1: So I really liked and a half of plus money.

393
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:39,840
Speaker 1: What do you think of the Bears a plus three

394
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:44,239
Speaker 1: ninety to win the division? I bet it already. I mean,

395
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 1: I just I like the value there that people forget

396
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,199
Speaker 1: they didn't win that division because of their offense. They

397
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 1: went and Rent wanted because of the defense. You just

398
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 1: see a compartable quarterback in there that's not gonna be

399
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 1: turn it over and losing games for him. And I

400
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 1: just think that it lines up really good for the Bears.

401
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 1: Is this upcoming season all right? This other team I

402
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:10,880
Speaker 1: find to be fascinating because they were so overhyped last year.

403
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,199
Speaker 1: That is the Cleveland Browns. And I'm looking at the

404
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns in the Let's see a FC North. Their

405
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,880
Speaker 1: odds to win plus it looks like plus four eight

406
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 1: um and there regular season win total is again look

407
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: in the Action Network gap eight and a half plus one.

408
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,359
Speaker 1: Most people are gonna go on the idea that it

409
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 1: obviously can't be worse than last year. They got a

410
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 1: new head coach, the venue system they're gonna run, They

411
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 1: actually improved a little bit on the defense side. I

412
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: still I still look at their line. They just still

413
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:51,640
Speaker 1: have problems where I don't like how they have addressed

414
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 1: their issues. I still think they have a lot of

415
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 1: work to get done on that side. And coming in

416
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:57,640
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people are gonna think that's

417
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 1: the Ravens division as well, as they showed them more

418
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 1: was m VP level last year. Like we're just saying

419
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 1: the year before, it usually ruins field mytup that coming year,

420
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 1: there's no way Ravens are going to fourteen a two again,

421
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 1: and there's no way I like since in a way

422
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 1: like Cleveland. So the obviously team I really like coming

423
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 1: this year in that division's Pittsburgh. I think that's where

424
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,439
Speaker 1: the value is. And day and a half number is

425
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: good in the sense that, yeah, the Browns could get

426
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 1: to nine wins, that wouldn't be shocking, but all the

427
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 1: values on the under from what we've seen from them

428
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 1: from all the past seasons, they're just an underachieving team

429
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 1: and in the first year head coach, I still don't

430
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: believe in that offense being able to carry that team

431
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 1: to over nine wins. All right, Well, you talk about

432
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 1: the Steelers, they're at over nine and a half, they're over.

433
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: The price on the over night and a half is

434
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 1: plus one and they are plus three seventy four to

435
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,959
Speaker 1: win the a f C North. That is some prime

436
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 1: time pricing right there. If you want the Steelers. It's

437
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,919
Speaker 1: tasty and it's just one of those where Hey, I

438
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: could be wrong, Lamar. No one could figure him out

439
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: last year. Maybe this offseason somehow they didn't figure it

440
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 1: out again. But we've just seen the time and time

441
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: again where these He's not one trick show. Lamar did

442
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 1: plenty of passing and different things last year than just

443
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 1: running the ball. But they're gonna figure out a way

444
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 1: to stop it. That's just the way it is. Who

445
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: knows if it's running the same type of defense that

446
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 1: worked last year against him, or it was just him

447
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 1: having bad days. But there's there's just no way that

448
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 1: you're getting any value on the Ravens this upcoming season.

449
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 1: They were just so out of this world last year.

450
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: You have to kind of take with a grain of

451
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 1: salt ware nothing went wrong from last year. They had

452
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: no major injuries. I mean, they've lost arguably one of

453
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 1: their best offensive lignment into retirement. So I think people

454
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 1: need to take a step back and think what's more

455
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 1: consistent the Ravens or Pittsburgh the way they've just always

456
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 1: had a good defense and Big Ben. If you can

457
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: just give one more year, that's a good value. People

458
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 1: are gonna be his attempt because of Big Ben, who

459
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 1: knows his shape he's gonna be in what she's gonna

460
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 1: look like. He's older. I get the hesitation with Pittsburgh.

461
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 1: That's why that that number is so big. Listen, I

462
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 1: I'm with you, though, Like, if I'm going to bet

463
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 1: on something in that division, am I gonna bet on

464
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 1: the consistency of of Big Ben or the lack of

465
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 1: a surprise factor that Lamar Jackson now presents, even though

466
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 1: he's amazing And I'm not discounting that, I'm just thinking

467
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: purely in terms of dining, He's unbelievable. Yeah, I'm not

468
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 1: saying last year was a fluke. I'm saying I have

469
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 1: a better price with the Steelers. Steelers a plus three

470
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,159
Speaker 1: seventy four to win the division and plus money to

471
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: go over night and a half wins with Big Ben

472
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: coming back, you cannot Yeah, you can understimate. Also, how

473
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: great of a coaching job Mike Tomlin did last year,

474
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 1: and to do what he did with that team with

475
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 1: no talent um quarterback, Imagine how good that team can

476
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: be when he actually has all of his weapons back.

477
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 1: And That's what I'm been on. I'm been on that

478
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: upside with that value. Uh, speaking of teams that are

479
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: lacking weapons. The Houston Texans are playing with a lot

480
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 1: of anger. I mean that team seems to be playing

481
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: a different kind of football all of a sudden because

482
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 1: of what Bill O'Brien has decided to do with that roster,

483
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: getting rid of DeAndre Hopkins for nothing, over paying for

484
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 1: running backs. Uh, Deshaun Watson. I don't really know what

485
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: his mindset is. How could I but that team right

486
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 1: now plus three sixty to win the division regular season

487
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 1: win totals under seven and a half a minus one

488
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 1: twelve over is minus one of eight. And when people

489
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,439
Speaker 1: are looking at Houston, it's just been they've kind of

490
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: been a joke of this all season, the public, the

491
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: public reflecting that they're thinking this is a joke franchise.

492
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: They just got really their best weapon on all offense

493
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: for an old running back who hasn't done anything in

494
00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: kind of two years. But when you look at the numbers,

495
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: scariest thing for them is that they haven't really improved

496
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: on defense and positions they need. But when you look

497
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: at their division, the uncertainty with the Jaguars like there

498
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 1: are people think they're taking the year Colts with the

499
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 1: Folk Rivers and Filip Rivers look cooked last year. I

500
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe a new situation, maybe that's gonna be

501
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: good for Rivers, but he he look cooked. And I'll

502
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 1: tell you everyone's gonna love them because of what they

503
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: did in the playoffs. That run they went on where

504
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: you're thinking it had something they're gonna build on. So

505
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 1: if you if you like what the Titans did best

506
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: year and you're thinking that's them building for even better

507
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: of the following year, like variable is a good coached

508
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: year and you trust that system, Tennessee is probably gonna

509
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: be the favorite, and a lot of people are gonna

510
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: take on that division. For this number, it's seven and

511
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,959
Speaker 1: a half. That feels super super low and good value.

512
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: I think Houston's gonna have problems in two three years

513
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: from now. I don't think they have problems right now.

514
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: I still think they have enough weapons around them, enough

515
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: of a good offense around them that I could see

516
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 1: them easily get it went through Houston. What did you

517
00:24:56,200 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: simulate the man? So I've changed I've had to change

518
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: it twice because of little things they've done this offseason.

519
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 1: I originally had them at nine and a half and

520
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: then ow they're down to nine. So at a point

521
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: a game in half higher than what the projections are

522
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: looking at. Great value, Yeah, I think vegas down on them.

523
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 1: Vegases it down on them just because they have a

524
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 1: harder schedule. Obou sat for the following year, and most

525
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: of the public they've just we're just all trashed Houston

526
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 1: and Bill O'Brien this whole off season. Little counter argument,

527
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: you're gonna fade the public on this one. Uh. This

528
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 1: is one of the few that I really stuck out

529
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 1: with paid in the public because the numbers just kept

530
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 1: going down since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I just think

531
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: even maybe some sharp stuff don't like it either. But

532
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: I don't think their problems are gonna happen right now.

533
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: I think there are two three years down the road, alright.

534
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 1: I want to stay in the state of Texas. Everybody

535
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: loves to talk about the Dallas Cowboys. They are at

536
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: nine and a half for the you know, yeah, nine

537
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 1: and a half. We are on the Cowboys at nine

538
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: and a half is minus yeah. I mean this is

539
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: one of those where basically the number of guys you're

540
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 1: looking at numbers that they just had terrible, terrible luck

541
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 1: lash for the Cowboys. I mean the the amount of

542
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: times they lost one score games and the amount of

543
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: times that they just completed blue games was alarming. And

544
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: it's one of those where people are thinking they have

545
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: a new coach coming in. Maybe McCarthy wasn't the blame

546
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: for how Badgreen Day was. Maybe there was just not

547
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: It was kind of just his time to leave there

548
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: with Rodgers. Maybe a new start for him is going

549
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 1: to be what he needs. And I can see why

550
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 1: people love it. It's it's funny in that division. Um,

551
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: there's hasn't been a repeat champ in that division like

552
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 1: twenty years. Like basically it's always flip flop and the

553
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: Eagles win and the Cowboys win or Brambley the Giants

554
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 1: will win. And it does seem like it's lining up

555
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: that this Cowboys team, this is gonna be their ask

556
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,400
Speaker 1: really good run. They have a lot of big contracts

557
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 1: coming up. They're not gonna be able to pay this

558
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: offensive line, a lot of these guys on the defense.

559
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: So I like that number, but that that big so

560
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 1: high that I wouldn't take it the because I can

561
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 1: see them getting nine wins, but I have them great

562
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: out of ten and a half. A right, So you

563
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: haven't grated out of ten and a half. The market

564
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: is saying nine and a half, but it might have one.

565
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 1: It's just too high. Yeah, And I just like there's

566
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 1: I just don't trust what's going on deck and the

567
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: whole contracting. It just gives me on the East going

568
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: to season, because that's just such distraction that you don't

569
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: need and it makes me a little nervous. But to

570
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: the Cowboys fans out there that have been hitting this number,

571
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 1: I do think that's that's a fair bet. I mean,

572
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 1: I'm getting ten wins that that seems in the range

573
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: of what they're gonna do this year. All Right, So

574
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 1: we've gone through about a third of the league right now.

575
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: I want to hear um your value picks. The biggest

576
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 1: delta between what your numbers are saying right now and

577
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: what the market is presenting. Well, definitely the Bears that

578
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: that that I already gave up, that's definitely one of

579
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: my favorite ones, Like of all the wind totals, that

580
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: really stuck out where it's like, I just think that's

581
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 1: that's really good value. Surprisingly, I actually do really like

582
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 1: the Jacks. I got them at six wins again for

583
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: this upcoming season and people are scared off because I mean,

584
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 1: their whole teams fleeing and CORTI minshew, he looks like

585
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 1: he's gonna collapse. So I'm gonna completely understand why people

586
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 1: are gonna stay away from the Jacks. I'll try to

587
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: find a more public team for people, but I know

588
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: that a lot of people are drinking the Carolina Panthers

589
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: school aid and wait, hold on, hold on, hold on,

590
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: hold on. So let's let's frame the Jags for a

591
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: second before you go on to into Carolina. Like, the

592
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: Jags are there. The over for the Jags is uh five,

593
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: It's over five plus one, so it's there's value there,

594
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: and betting the over, well, you gotta shop round because

595
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: I'm seeing certain books still haven't at four and a half.

596
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: So basically what I'm looking at is when you're saying

597
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: that number, you're saying the Jacks need just go three

598
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 1: and three in their division, which isn't that shocking, And

599
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: I'm gona go three three in their division and they

600
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: just have to win two games outside their division in

601
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: the whole season. And what I've always learned with these

602
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: flority teams is there are certain teams that get down

603
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: into that heat and that humidity, and they're good teams

604
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: and they just blow games against bad flority teams. So

605
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: that's what's always funny with these Miami Tampa and these uh,

606
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: these Jacks and these low these low over unders. Usually

607
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: they hit it. So it's one of those I'm gonna

608
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: wait on the Jacks. I think the public, like you're

609
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 1: saying you have at five, I'm seeing four and a

610
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 1: half in some books. I'm just gonna wait and hope,

611
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: I hope people just keep betting them down. I'll be

612
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: able to get it at four eventually. All Right, that's

613
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: a good strategy. I'm gonna wait. I'm taking a note

614
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: on that. I'm gonna wait. Who's your brother? You like

615
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: the Bears, you like the Jags. I really gave it

616
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: out like way, like let's go the Denver super Bowl.

617
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,479
Speaker 1: I like the Denver over seven and a half. It's

618
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 1: juiced up a little bit, and people are really have

619
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: really been hyping them since the draft, just because all

620
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 1: these weapons now on their offense, and I just think

621
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: it's locked. Drew Lock can just be just a little

622
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: bit better than what they've had in the past three

623
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: or four years. That's that's the number they're gonna hit

624
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: just because their defense is still really dominant. And then

625
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: you've got all these weapons on the offense where teams

626
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 1: go up to malha and they usually always win five

627
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: to six home games. So you're just looking at it

628
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: all right now, they got five to six home wins.

629
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 1: You just need to find two to three more wins

630
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 1: for them on the road, and it's pretty easy to

631
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: see that. You think they can get eight to nine.

632
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: So I like that value in Denver. Denver is and

633
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: you also like him the Super Bowl. Denver is fifty

634
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: t one to win the Super Bowl. You also had

635
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: mentioned let's talk about the Cardinals for a second, Um,

636
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: because earlier in the year you had mentioned the Cardinals,

637
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 1: and that was before their draft, before lot of free agency,

638
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: before we saw the schedule. Cards fifty one to win

639
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Still, how are you feeling about their

640
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 1: season wins at so um? Like I was talking a

641
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: little bit earlier, they've been bet up. So when I

642
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: when I get them out, I was able to get

643
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: them at six six and a half. Now they're up

644
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: to seven and a half in most books, So I

645
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: still think there's value there. I can still I still

646
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: have them grated out at getting eight wins. But it

647
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous. Now that's all way up there,

648
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: because that whenever the public team becomes the public darlings,

649
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: and it does make me a little a little nervous

650
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: because when we were talking about that, no one was

651
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,239
Speaker 1: really talking about the Cardinals. So it's funny now that's

652
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: kind of flipped in as people have looked into the numbers,

653
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: It's like, Wow, they have a lot of weapons. And

654
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray really strokes, like showed in different games that

655
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: this gets special. His some of his passes that I mean,

656
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: he came to see over guys and he's putting it

657
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: right on the din twenty yards down the line. So

658
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: I really do like the everything that Arizona has building there,

659
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: and I like that over seven and a half, alright, Denver,

660
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 1: you still like the Jags, the Bears. Your Jaggs are

661
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: gonna wait on cards. You kind of like although a

662
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: lot of the value has been bet out of it

663
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: because it opened it six who else? So it's kind

664
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: of funny coming to the year that, um, most people

665
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:24,479
Speaker 1: are kind of nervous about this pild off the Eagles

666
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: team and they're still over under still nine and a half,

667
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: and I still think there's good value there to bet

668
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: their under, Like they're they're set up where it seems

669
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 1: like they're gonna start going through stuff. Maybe this is

670
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 1: the last year Rob for this A lot of these players,

671
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: A lot of these guys might be leaving and retiring.

672
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 1: But I have them grated out of eight and a

673
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: half wins for the season, So nine and a half.

674
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: We're finding a whole game of value on that over round.

675
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: I like the under for the Eagles under nine and

676
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: a half is actually minus one fifteen, So you're betting

677
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: with the market there, right, And I can see why

678
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: because I mean, they're they're offensive abysmal um last year.

679
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: But I do think they are going to be improved

680
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: in the offense. I just the way that division is

681
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: shaping up, Like the Giants will be better, and we

682
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: all already talked about the Cowboys. I just think it's

683
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: gonna be tougher for them to sneak again get nine

684
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: and seven last year. I don't think they can do

685
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: better than that. Alright, let's talk about the Giants for

686
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 1: a second, because could they all of a sudden become

687
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: an interesting value bet for the conference? As well. And

688
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: it's funny where I I really do like a lot

689
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: of my time is spent on these quarterbacks, especially if

690
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: to I'm watching and just just little things. You look

691
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: forward these guys to see if they got it or not.

692
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 1: And I do love Daniel Jones a lot of the

693
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: film I saw in him. He has great awareness, but

694
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: he is so he was so bipolar like most quarterbacks

695
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: are in the season where he had one good game,

696
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: the next game he was complete disaster, couldn't stop fumbling,

697
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: kept throwing picks. And if you're gonna bet their over

698
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: six over six and a half, you're kind of betting

699
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: on Daniel Jones saying he's gonna correct his mistakes and

700
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: that's good value on that number where I have them

701
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: still rated out at six, So I don't see value.

702
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: I see the schema push. So I'm actually gonna probably

703
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 1: wait and take the under if I can find six

704
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 1: and a half. Oh man, that was that was That's

705
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: so interesting because like the Giants at plus nine hundred

706
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: in a division like you said that changes hands every

707
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: year with Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins who was and

708
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: the Eagles, who you think are destined to continue to

709
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 1: slide and the Cowboys, who like maybe it was Jason Garrett,

710
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: who knows they have a new coach, but like it's

711
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 1: not assured. I would have totally been on that Giants

712
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 1: at plus nine hundred. I'm so glad you just walked

713
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: me off that. Yeah, I think it's I'd wait another

714
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: year on that. I'd wait. I'd wait a year on

715
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: the Giants just because I don't I could see it

716
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 1: in that division. Like you're saying, there's a lot of

717
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 1: upside there, but I just think you're a year. Who

718
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: else are we missing from your biggest delta between your

719
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: numbers in the market. So what you always want to

720
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: do is you you want to kind of look at

721
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 1: the previous season and say, like what unders are the

722
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: most likely to happen? Because if you just bet every

723
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 1: under of all these teams, you're gonna make money. But

724
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: that's no fun. Um, you really you really want to

725
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 1: look at teams that had over ten wins the season

726
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: before because that's a key number. It's you need luck

727
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: and a lot of talent to break ten wins, especially

728
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: on back to back season. I mean, I'm gonna look

729
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: right now, but I'm pretty sure the only team that's

730
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: been back to back ten game one he is the

731
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints. So that's what I mean. No other

732
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 1: team keeps getting ten wins than the Saints every year.

733
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: So when you're looking at San Frame their numbers ten

734
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: to have, the value is gone there. That number, that's

735
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: a high number. That's that's pretty much saying they're going

736
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: to have just as good a season they did last year.

737
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,720
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't even think back the they stopped

738
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 1: the guy in the one yard line to get the

739
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: number one seed in the last game of the year

740
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: on the final player of the year, or they were

741
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: going to be the five seeds. So it's one of

742
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:16,760
Speaker 1: those where it's like people need to start thinking these

743
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: things aren't teams aren't gonna be winning consistency like they

744
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: think they're. It comes down to one play multiple times

745
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: this season in different games. So with San France ten

746
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: a half, you have to take that under. And when

747
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 1: you're looking at um Green Bay, I think they're real

748
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: quick where San Francisco Sancisco under ten and a half

749
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: is minus one of five, so there's better juice on

750
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 1: that and and Green that's that's sharp. That's like sharp

751
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: money probably coming home because what Joe Public's gonna go

752
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: in there, and that the under up same frame they

753
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: made the Super Bowl. Well, here's what's interesting green Bay

754
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: is the under nine is minus one, right, And that's

755
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: just another one of those where you're saying that they're

756
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: not going to be able to duplicate what they did

757
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 1: last year, especially in that division, because like I told

758
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: you already, think the Bears man be better and the

759
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 1: Staffords me back for Detroit for the whole season. So

760
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 1: that's actually not terrible because I actually have them at

761
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 1: nine nine, like nine point two, so I have them

762
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 1: slightly over that over you're not getting you're gonna push it.

763
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 1: They hit nine. But actually, now that I'm like, now

764
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 1: we're talking about out loud, it's like that Aaron Rodgers

765
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 1: revenge story, like he's gonna be piste off this whole season,

766
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 1: and at nine, that nine is not a bad that's

767
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,839
Speaker 1: a good number for green Back. So I actually would

768
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,399
Speaker 1: take that over. You would, yeah, because when I saw

769
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: it earlier, they were at ten, and now that I'm like,

770
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: when we're going at the book again, it's it's down

771
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: to nine. So I think that's there's value there on

772
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 1: the nine over nine minus one, so it's certainly better juice. Right, Yeah,

773
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: that's that's good. That's crazy. The sharps've been found and

774
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 1: them like the Well, look, I think it's one of

775
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: those things that everyone believes what you do. Like Aaron

776
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: Rodgers for the past five years, and Chris Raybond from

777
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 1: the Actually Nework has written about this so many times,

778
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: is a deteriorating quarterback. His numbers are not nearly as

779
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 1: good as they were in the previous five years, and

780
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: he's still getting the shine for being Aaron Rodgers, which

781
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: is amazing, and then even more shine for taking that

782
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: team that wasn't very good to a thirteen and three

783
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 1: year unto the NFC title game. But like this team

784
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: did not get better during the year, and uh, he

785
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: continues to get credit for being Aaron Rodgers when he

786
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,959
Speaker 1: really isn't Aaron Rodgers anymore. That's why I don't worry

787
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers as a as a as a guy

788
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 1: with a chip on his shoulder, because that can last

789
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: you only so long, and it helps when you're already

790
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: the most supremely talented quarterback in the game. It's not

791
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: as good when you have a chip on your shoulder

792
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 1: and you're no longer the most supremely talented quarterback in

793
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: the game, right, And I think that people need to

794
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: just that we're thinking about him. But I still think

795
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,720
Speaker 1: that he's lost athleticism which we made him so great.

796
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: Like we're seeing in Touch my Homes he can just

797
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 1: move in the pocket and just had to flick at

798
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: his wrists put it fifty yards down the field. Rodgers

799
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: definitely lost that, but I think meant the mentally, he's

800
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 1: just gonna be on point and it's gonna be a

801
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: second year in this offense where it's a heavy based

802
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: running offense where a lot of his plays or play

803
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,839
Speaker 1: action leads, which is just a layup for a guy

804
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: like Aaron Rodgers. He's still a top twelve, top ten

805
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: quarterback in this league. Um I do. I do love

806
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 1: reading Chris is right. He's he's good. He's got a

807
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 1: lot of articles. But when I read about that was interesting.

808
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 1: Just every every year he's just his velocity is growing.

809
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: Everything's just gone down. So the numbers you backed it up,

810
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:38,399
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna back him for one more year,

811
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: all right. I think there's a couple of other hot

812
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 1: button teams that we do have to hit on uh,

813
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: and then I do want to get any updated conference

814
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,359
Speaker 1: futures or Super Bowl futures that you think still might

815
00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 1: have some value. But some of the hot button teams, UH,

816
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: Miami over six and a half plus one oh seven,

817
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be on that under just because I

818
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 1: don't think I think they are gonna have to Uh.

819
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: I think two is gonna be playing early days and

820
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 1: what we saw last year it was obviously great coaching,

821
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: but it was a lot of fits. I mean that

822
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: in that game against the Patriots end the season, that

823
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 1: was one of more incredible comebacks. And that's just what

824
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: that guy does. He's a never die kind of guy.

825
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 1: She was gonna be a rookie, he's coming from Alabama,

826
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,959
Speaker 1: he's coming off a major injury. That's that's all those

827
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 1: signs point to for sure, it was a good A

828
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: good season for them would be four to five wins.

829
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: So that's that's a big under. Um from the six

830
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,439
Speaker 1: mm hmm, I agree with you about two. That's when

831
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 1: I really started, I mean about fits. That's when I

832
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 1: really started to bet them last year was seeing Fitzpatrick

833
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: become the quarterback. He is a little bit magical. I

834
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be hard for them to come in

835
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: and play to uh, given the sort of injury that

836
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 1: he has to come back from and the learning curve, Like,

837
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: why wouldn't you play Ryan Fitzpatrick as long as you

838
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 1: possibly can? I think I disagree with your premise that

839
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,879
Speaker 1: um that he's going to be the one who comes

840
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: into place. I answers with you. I thought, because of

841
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:18,439
Speaker 1: the injury, they're gonna take it slow. But the more

842
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: stuff I hear, especially at a guys in base and

843
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 1: people they're they're hearing from, it just it seems like

844
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 1: to them that two isn't the guy that's gonna come

845
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 1: in in week three or four and that's that's gonna

846
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,239
Speaker 1: be the show for the rest of the season. All right.

847
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: Before I get to this last team, are we missing

848
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 1: any value picks for you? Where the delta between your

849
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: simulations and the current season win totals is very aggressive? Uh.

850
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: The one that really stands out, and maybe it's a

851
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: little bit of my biggest love, but the Raiders coming

852
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 1: into that new stadium and it seems like they're gonna

853
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 1: be one of the few places that will definitely have fans.

854
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: It's gonna be crazy. I mean that that is want

855
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 1: to be a big advantage for the Raiders in this

856
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 1: first season. And I like what they've done in this draft,

857
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: and it's kind of a make or break year for

858
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. So they got it at seven and a half.

859
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: I had them graded out at eight point four, so

860
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 1: I had them over that I have I have. I've

861
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: definitely seen them getting especially in the division where I

862
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: know everyone's gonna be scared of the Chiefs and I'm

863
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 1: I'm obviously always worried about them because they're so dominant,

864
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 1: but you have to look at we still don't know

865
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 1: about Locked. I mean, there's good value in Denver, we

866
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 1: don't know about him, and we don't know at all

867
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 1: what the charges are gonna be like, They're gonna be

868
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:39,439
Speaker 1: probably terrible. So right there, if you're spotting Openen going

869
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: three and three or four and two in that division,

870
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: it's it's pretty conceivable to see them win a couple

871
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 1: more home games that steal eight wins in the season.

872
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 1: So I really like the value on the Raiders. Raiders

873
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 1: are at over seven and a half minus one o two,

874
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 1: so decent money on them as well. Let's talk the

875
00:42:57,320 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: last last one I'll give out just for Darren. I

876
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: do like the Jets over seven. I have them braided

877
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: out at seven and a half wins for this season,

878
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: So at worst case, I see you getting a push

879
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: with the Jets. So I like the value of the

880
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:15,280
Speaker 1: over the Jets over seven over seven for Darren Revel.

881
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 1: You love it for Darren Revel getting some love for

882
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 1: the Jets. We've talked about Arizona at fifty two one

883
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:23,800
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. We talked about Denver fifty

884
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: two one to win the Super Bowl. Right now, looking

885
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 1: at some of these numbers, post free agency, post draft,

886
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: post schedule release, um, is anybody sticking out? So vice

887
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: I always give for these futures is you don't want

888
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 1: to be betting the very top ones, like and we

889
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 1: talked about last year. I waited on the Chiefs and

890
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:47,799
Speaker 1: I got lucky where my homes got hurt and I

891
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 1: was getting tender ones fifteen ones on them to win

892
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl instead of putting them in the premium.

893
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 1: Now coming to the season, they were plus like four

894
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 1: hundred plus five hundred in most books for them to

895
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,719
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. So those top ones, you, of course,

896
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:04,759
Speaker 1: who's gonna bet against the Chiefs on the Super Bowl.

897
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: I could see that repeating. They literally only got better

898
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: in this offseason. But when you're betting is you're looking

899
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 1: for value. And that's why when I gave out Arizona

900
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 1: and the Bronx, is that that that was pure value upside.

901
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 1: You're looking for something big you can hedge when it

902
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 1: comes down to it. So we already talked about, but

903
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: I like the Bears. At some books you can get

904
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: plus four thousand. I like that number for the Bears.

905
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: Now you're just breaking really hard. It's just one of

906
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:33,399
Speaker 1: those things where it's good value. Like I could see

907
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 1: things breaking right where they have the offensive weapons, if

908
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 1: they can get Nick or Trabisky, just to figure it

909
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 1: out in that offense with that defense, that's that's really

910
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 1: good value for that team. And then the next one.

911
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 1: It's kind of funny like thinking about all the things

912
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 1: that have to go right for it to happen. But

913
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: I do love UM Minnesota plus four thousand somehow. Getting

914
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: back to the I just think that the way like

915
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: in that division, I just like all those teams the

916
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 1: way they shape out, that the road to the super

917
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: Bowl for them is gonna be easier than a lot

918
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: of these other teams. I'm so glad you mentioned the Vikings.

919
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 1: I love the Vikings. Love the Vikings. I think their

920
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 1: defense is amazing. I'm not as much of a hater

921
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: of Kirk Cousins as most people are. I like their coach,

922
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,880
Speaker 1: my Eximmer a lot. Like they just me seem like

923
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 1: a team that is set up and gets completely gets

924
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: forgotten about, and it's it's one of those where you

925
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 1: actually look at numbers. Their defense is their age and

926
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: there there's all a couple of guys on there. They've

927
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: lost that. It does hurt them a little bit. I

928
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: think the Digs move was big for them. It's kind

929
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: of like I knew a refresher on that all sense

930
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 1: where Kirk's not gonna have that pressure. He can either

931
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: go to funeral Karokee. They drafted and a lot of

932
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 1: people think Cook is the top three running back in

933
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 1: the league. So it's set up with them that that

934
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:55,720
Speaker 1: that's a nice, nice value on the Minnesota Vikings. Salmon

935
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 1: Hunter Professional better based in New Jersey. Friend of the podcast,

936
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 1: you'll be with us to in the season. I'm assuming,

937
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 1: I'm I'm you know, consigning you that, uh you know

938
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: this was a great r This was like hardcore, great rundown,

939
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: good value, good information, plenty of stuff you can get

940
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 1: out there, ways to put little money down, rep high

941
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 1: rewards on big opportunities. Thank you for coming on the

942
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 1: favorite podcast. I'm a hunter, all right, buddy, be good

943
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: man and then I'll talk to you later. This has

944
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Action Network. Download from Apple,

945
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, unsubscribe,

946
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 1: re subscribe until next time. Love you yeah,