1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,640 Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters investors have put 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: their trust and independent registered investment advisors to the tune 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,559 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and 8 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg Film batteries. The chief economist 9 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: at City Group, he joins us, No, good morning, Billiam, 10 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: great to have you here, and let's start with the FED. 11 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: I must admit I will be curious when the minutes 12 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: come out here in a few weeks to see if 13 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: there's any color of conversation sations between the Cleveland FED 14 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: president the Chicago FIT president at last night's ball game. 15 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: But besides that, let me ask you about what you 16 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: expect from from this statement today. What you'll be looking for. No, 17 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: I will be looking for absolutely nothing. This is a 18 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: meeting that might as well not be held. Right, They're 19 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: not going to do anything. It will be an opportunity 20 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 1: for those the minority that wants to see rates increase 21 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: now to let us sub steam, but there will be 22 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 1: no substantive inside. We won't move with rate until December. 23 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: Assuming that uh, that that that that Clinton is the president. 24 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: If you get another outcome, we may not see anybody 25 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: increases this cycle. You mentioned that they're letting off steam. 26 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: We have that minority angling for hoping for for a 27 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: rate increase. How loud is is that group becoming we 28 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: we've heard from Eric rosen Grin and certainly from from 29 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: John Williams as well. Is it becoming a cohesive group 30 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: in any sense? It's hard to uh to judge. Right. 31 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 1: The people UM hold that position for two reasons. One 32 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: is that you believe that the output gap is closed 33 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: to efficiently and inflation precious over the horizon that multi 34 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: policy can influence it likely to result in excessive inflation. 35 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: The other one's financial stability argument. That hasn't been terribly 36 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: popular since Jeremy Stein left the board, but I think 37 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: you hear it mentioned occasionally by f C members, So 38 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 1: I think, um, so there may be. I think there 39 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 1: will be, of course a growing sense that that that 40 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: this group that mults away increase. No, we'll get it, 41 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: But again not this November and um the earliest and December, 42 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: assuming that uh that Ms Clinton, Mrs Clinton is the 43 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: is the next president. Let me drill into that studying 44 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: argument there a little bit. Is is this a fact 45 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: that it is little does not care that much about 46 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: the effect here on the markets? Is it ignoring that 47 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: in the face of economy? And how where is it 48 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: of of how the markets are reacting. I'm not so 49 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: much thinking about reacting to markets, right. I think the 50 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: fet is of all leading central banks the most sensitive, 51 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: I would say excessively sensitive to what it thinks the 52 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: market might do in response to its actions. I think 53 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: central banks should basically ignore market volatility UM and you know, 54 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: just get the message across and take their actions. But 55 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: what I'm talking about is signs of incipient UM no 56 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: credit froth in the non financial corporate That market, uh 57 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: the other selected parts of the economy is not systemic yet, 58 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: but it's definitely there. And since the US doesn't have 59 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: any counter cyclical micropotential instruments, all you can do to 60 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: tack all that interest rates. Unfortunately, the FED doesn't have 61 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: count of cyclical no loan to value ratios, count of 62 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: cyclical loan to income ratios for mortgages and similar macropodential 63 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 1: conta cyclical instruments, and the FED is condemned to use 64 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: rates to find fight financial froth. And in my view, 65 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: we're probably in the US at the point in the 66 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: credit cycle that these concerns should be taken more seriously 67 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: than they are by the majority of the Federal res 68 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 1: of Board and their form c in the in the 69 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: penopally of data, they will be poring over here at 70 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: the meeting today is the latest read of of g 71 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 1: d P square that with your focus, your your forecast 72 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,119 Speaker 1: here for growth over the next year, Well, we got 73 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: a big boost from exports, just as the quarter before, 74 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: you know, we got a negative surprise for consumption. Both 75 00:04:53,600 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: these things are likely not to be with us for long. Um, 76 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 1: we are still looking at two plus two wish growth 77 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: next year, slightly above what we achieved I could achieve 78 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: this year, again assuming no presidential election surprises, and that 79 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 1: growth rate is sufficient to keep closing the output GAPUS 80 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: potential output probably about and a half percent, and therefore 81 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: there will be slow continuing output. Question underlying inflation justifying 82 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: gradual increase in rate A couple of increases next year. 83 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: Good morning all, David Gerr and Tom Keane with this 84 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: villain Powder of City Group, and he begins, I guess 85 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: it could be almost like a three day jobs day. 86 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: The news flow, David, is extraordinary. I believe I can say, 87 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: in the umpteen years we've done this, I've never seen 88 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 1: a five day periods six day one of the busiest weeks. 89 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: And that surveillance correction here that the world is so 90 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: loud that I said it was a two states in 91 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: fact a Wednesday exactly. I'm the way. I'm like, it's November, really, 92 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: but I want to rip up the script here. Um, 93 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: Larry Caudlow, my good friend Larry Cudlow, great great market 94 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: analysts and economist, is adamant this morning the Greg ban 95 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: Que of Harvard gets it right on trade, and Peter 96 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: Navarro of UKL Irvine in support of Mr Trump gets 97 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: it wrong on trade. We're gonna fix this, Mr Cudlow, 98 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 1: because I know Larry listens every morning and talk to 99 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: Villain Powder about trade. Help me here with the core 100 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: economics of trade. When I have to presidential candidates who 101 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: are anti t p P, anti free, they're aggressively anti 102 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: free trade like I've never seen. What does that signal 103 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: for America and our trade deficit. First of all the TPP. 104 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 1: But more than trade, there is an investment and a 105 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: dispute settlement issue issues the time on radio. But u 106 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:03,919 Speaker 1: um uh. It's clear that trade is the foundation of 107 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: the division of labor and and therefore of prosperity and 108 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: free trade. The freest possible trade bill maximized the size 109 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: of the pie. It doesn't guarantee that the benefits are 110 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: evenly fairly distributed. And that is where I think the 111 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: US and Europe, where you know, the two regions in 112 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: the world where populism is rampant, has fallen down. The 113 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: fruits from both technical change and globalization generally trade in 114 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: particular have accrued to very few and that creates a 115 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: political problem. Not everywhere, even in past economies, right Kinada, 116 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: not a problem Australia, New Zealand. But in the US 117 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: and Europe have failed to test you. And I remember 118 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: David's too young for this. Twin deficits. In twin deficits 119 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: were all going to die. Help me here with the 120 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: worry that we are slaves to China because we have 121 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: an ugly, bad, evil deficit and their money has to 122 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: flow in by by by economic mathematics, simple, simple mathematics. 123 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: That is no sort of me cantil is nonsense. The 124 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: fact that the US is running a current account and 125 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: trade deficit in China surplus is reflects the fact that 126 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: the US invests even uh, you know, but invest very 127 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: little saves even less, and China but invest massively saves 128 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: even more. Right, it has says nothing about the benefits 129 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: from trade and the kind of you know, exchange other 130 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 1: things being equal arithmetic that says, you know, let's simply, 131 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: you know, take whatever three four percent of GDP trade 132 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: deficit and added to domestic demand and make everybody happy. 133 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: Is such bad economics that you know, you wouldn't even 134 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: flunk people for giving you that answer. In economics, you 135 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:05,079 Speaker 1: would simply stroke to them, talk to them very quietly 136 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,199 Speaker 1: and comfortingly. That's the real that's the real. Villain. Take 137 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 1: the admissions officer siety exactly, and I'm sure it's to 138 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: keen David Gray here in New York with villain Batter, 139 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: chief economist at City Group. Before we get to the 140 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 1: Bank of England. We'll see if that meeting is more 141 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: worth wild than the feder one in your estivation. Let 142 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: me let me close the loop here on what we 143 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: were talking about a few moments ago, that being the 144 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership and trade generally. Are 145 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: we seeing a reevaluation of what globalization is a new 146 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: definition of globalization in light of the populism we've seen 147 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: here over the campaign cycle in the last year or 148 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 1: so in the US and in Europe. Yes, not in Canada, 149 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: not say not in New Zealand, not in Latin invest 150 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: things are moving the other way. Not in Southeast Asia, 151 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: not even in China. So it is um dominant, the 152 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: populist vox populi, as we called it, a movement in 153 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:05,319 Speaker 1: those reasons of the world rich regions where the fruits 154 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 1: from globalization and in the technical change have been most 155 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: unequally distributed. And until we tackle that both through active 156 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: labor market policy, education, training, and I think ultimately through 157 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 1: guaranteed minim income if necessary, we're not going to solve 158 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: that problem. That's the world I'm looking forward to. And 159 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: since there's no hope I think in the US at 160 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: any rate of either an active labor market policy or 161 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: anything approaching a guaranteed minium income, I think that these 162 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 1: populist pressures will continue and there will be a retreat 163 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: in this part of the advanced economies, not globally, but 164 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: from globalization. The watch word increasingly is inclusion. You've heard 165 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: it being used at the IMF World Bank meetings. You 166 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 1: hear the Treasury Secretary talking about it. Uh an acknowledgement, 167 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 1: I suppose of the inequality economic inequality. When does it 168 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: go from that being a watch word, being something that's 169 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:04,439 Speaker 1: talked to out to a change in policy if at all, Well, um, 170 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: somebody has to make it part of that platform, run 171 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,079 Speaker 1: on it, and have concrete measures. But I'll be talking 172 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: about here is serious public spending programs. If you're talking 173 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: about active labor market policies and improved education, training, lifelong 174 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: training and retraining and education. And then you know a 175 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 1: massive tax transfer program to get about tobin and treatment 176 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: called negative income tax. The one thing to actively agreed 177 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 1: on but really guaranteed minimum income independent of work. And 178 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: I don't see any political support for that at the 179 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: level of concrete policy being pod that any chance of 180 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 1: it passing through this Congress in my lifetime. How far 181 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: apart are guys like you from the idea of getting 182 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: anything passed in your lifetime. Academic theorists, whatever their believes, 183 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: the people that degree and disagree with you, professor, do 184 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: you feel like there's no one listening in the various 185 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: capitals of the Western world. I think the parts of 186 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: the Western world, of course, that don't have this problem. 187 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 1: I mentioned Canada, Australia and Heland. But I think some 188 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: European countries where there is a more established edition of 189 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: active labor market policies like Denmark, or of quite radical 190 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: redistribution if necessary, that have a better chance of attacking 191 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: this problem. The US visits historic mistrust of government intervention, 192 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: is not a place where you would expect, you know, 193 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: at the federal level active labor market policies, or indeed 194 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: any increase in the welfare state right which is not 195 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: targeted exclusively at the old The US, of course, has 196 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: got help us with the populism of your Netherlands. All 197 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: the news goes to France and Italy. The rest I mean, 198 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: the Netherlands is polarized, know, isn't it? Well? The Dutch 199 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: populist party the Freedom Party is it calls itself For 200 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: reasons unknown. UM is uh the largest in the many 201 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: of the polls, they tend to underperform actually in UH 202 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:21,719 Speaker 1: in elections, and UH there is actually some indication that 203 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: where's the modest but real recovery we've had the last 204 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 1: few years in the Netherlands that their support may have beat. 205 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:33,599 Speaker 1: But yes, there is strong um anti immigrant sentiment in 206 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 1: the Netherlands. Not so much anti trade because I mean 207 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: in the Netherlands trade is of GDP, right, UM, so 208 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 1: if your anti trade, that's like being against your left foot. 209 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: But there is um I think um anti European sentiment, 210 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: wish to repatriate powers from Brussels. UM, sort of almost 211 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: dallist attitude towards you have been in the great and 212 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:05,679 Speaker 1: xenophobia that's h including Islamophobia. It is very much part 213 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: of the political landscape. Now. Yes, how do you weigh 214 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 1: the economic ramifications of the refugee crisis we're seeing right now? 215 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: We talk a lot about the social effects, of course, 216 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: but how how hard is it to forecast that the 217 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: economic effects of what we're seeing in Europe? Oh, I 218 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: think you could from you cano perspective, this has to 219 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: be a blessing. Right In the short run we get 220 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: additional published spending at last on entering the refugee crisis, right, 221 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: but it could be dealing with thefuties processing them and 222 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: hopefully educating them. And if they stay integrating into society, 223 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 1: that cost money. So there's a kang in short run effect. 224 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: And of course since most of are young, uh, provided 225 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: they can be educated, training and socially degrades of society, 226 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: they can solve at least for a couple of denovations 227 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: to use defacits. So the problems are social, political, cultural, 228 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: religious and all that from economic perspective. Let him come, 229 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: Villain Bouler, Thank you so much with City Group getting 230 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: us started on amazing five and six days of coverage 231 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: here from the FED to the election. Stay with us. 232 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg within the news flow. It is a 233 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: good time to catch up with historian author all around 234 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: bond guy James Grant, interest rate observer Grants interest rate Observer. 235 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: He leads with the arc, excuse me, the arc of 236 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: the narrative to me? The arc Jim goes out longer 237 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: and longer seventy year Austrian paper. What does it mean 238 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: that Jim Grant to see in our distortion the issuance 239 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: of near perpetuity paper? Well, it says that the people 240 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: have a great deal of confidence in the currency that 241 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: is undefined and in securities that are payable in currencies 242 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: that are weightless, undefined, and are manipulatable at the will 243 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: of a central bank. Now, Tom, I'm gonna read you 244 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: if I may. I'm gonna read you a couple of 245 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 1: names apropos of the most exciting two thousand and sixteen 246 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: World Series. And I want you these are these are 247 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: people on the field. I want you to identify them, 248 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 1: if you would please. This is a pop quiz with 249 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: no preparation, and nobody has tipped you, all right, Marvin Hudson, 250 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: Larry van Over, and Joe West. I would say umpires, ah, 251 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: exactly their umpires. But notice that only Tom Keene knows 252 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: that fact. And we are going to be talking all 253 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: days there you will about the about Janet Yellen, who 254 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: is in effect the kind of the umpire of securities 255 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: and of than talking about the nameless people who own them. 256 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: And yeah, so okay, but this is I'm gonna go 257 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: right there. And I love what you're doing here, Jim Grant, 258 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: is it a ground rule double and a miscall off 259 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 1: of pesky pole? Thank you? Red socks off the pesky 260 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: poll that Janet Yellen is calling this a dead meeting. 261 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: Should she be doing action this November to get out 262 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: in the front of December. I think in general and 263 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,719 Speaker 1: the central banks ought to do much much less. They 264 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: ought to be nearly invisible. They ought to be uh, 265 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 1: the stewards of of monetary units that that wigh value, 266 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: and they ought not to be manipulating those units and 267 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: treating them as instruments of national policy. So I'd all 268 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 1: be in favor of invisible central bankers. Unfortunately they are 269 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: front and center. And indeed our celebrities, you know the 270 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal uh many months ago buried the lead 271 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,959 Speaker 1: in a story about the chair of the Center Reserve. 272 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:57,680 Speaker 1: I think it was John Hills and Wrath and report 273 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: of the Janet Yellen. When she has a scheduled domestic 274 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 1: or international flight, guests to the airport hours plural hours early. 275 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: Now all of us are, you know, we must get 276 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: to the airport earlier these days. But Yahn is one 277 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 1: for such so punctilious and so set on not not 278 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,160 Speaker 1: missing a flight that she arrives hours early. That's that's 279 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 1: a personality is risk averse. That is very very very 280 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: careful woman and I think that she will be very, 281 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: very averse to anything resembling precipitous action or indeed action 282 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: at the risk of torturing the metaphor. Here we were 283 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,239 Speaker 1: talking yesterday about the length of baseball games. How much 284 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: of an impediment that is to people watching baseball? Let 285 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 1: me draw that out to the pre FED meeting speeches, 286 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 1: inning after inning after inning of speeches from FED governors 287 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 1: and FED officials. Are we hearing too much from them? 288 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: Is the amount of public descent a good thing? Jim um? No. 289 00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: You know, way back in the day, the Bank of 290 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: a was was loath to say anything, and uh. One 291 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 1: of the governors was pressed as to why, and he 292 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: said that the old lady of fred Noodles reed is 293 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: the Bank of England is familiarly known not to protest 294 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 1: her virtue. And so my friend Seth Risky, who and 295 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 1: it's the New York Sun calls today's dollar the verbal dollar, 296 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: because you know, money talks um. But these people cannot 297 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: shut up. They go on and on and they speak 298 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: in this this kind of uh, this this faculty club 299 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:40,639 Speaker 1: dialect of economics, and it's it's confusing when it isn't 300 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: vexing so I think that they ought to might say 301 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: much less, do much less, and in generally, in general, 302 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: strive for invisibility. I want to switch gears, which you 303 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 1: do folks with grants indust rate observer, maybe more than 304 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: any other guest we get request. Could you please send 305 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: us Jim Grant's interest rate Observer. No, we protective copyright 306 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,479 Speaker 1: of all of our guests, particularly Jim Grant, who carves 307 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: this thing out of marble. Jimmy, you have a brilliant 308 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: essay on the interesting effect of passive funds. You don't 309 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 1: tar and feather Vanguard, but it's a dominant passive investor. 310 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: They have ginormous holdings of companies. You mentioned Ball Corp. 311 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: Within your good work. But what is the um effect 312 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 1: of index funds in their popularity upon corporate activism and 313 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: shareholder representation? Well, we've gone from activism, it seems to 314 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,400 Speaker 1: passivity or to uh, I guess in the case of 315 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: the very very hot index and et F products, into 316 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 1: kind of a passive aggressiveness. But I think that there's 317 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: nothing wrong with the idea of indexation. In fact, there's 318 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: many many things are right. When I think that, like 319 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: any other idea on Wall Street, um it tends to 320 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: be any of the good idea in Wall Street tends 321 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 1: to be driven into the ground like a tomato steak. 322 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 1: And there's a h Wall Street epigram Worth repeating that 323 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: it's not the bad ideas to get you in trouble, 324 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: it's the good ideas that are taken in such extremes 325 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: that they become bad ideas. And I think indexation and 326 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: certainly the indexed exchange traded funds, are approaching that point. 327 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: I'm not sure if we're there yet, but I think 328 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:33,199 Speaker 1: that that the the trend towards passive investing has tended 329 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:39,879 Speaker 1: to to to devalue the fine artist securities analysis. It 330 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: has tended to um make us collectively less careful investors. 331 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: I anticipate here that on November nine, or at least 332 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 1: on January, conversation is going to shift to infrastructure spending. 333 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 1: Whether or not that happens is debatable, But in your 334 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: most recent newsletter you write about gut him and spending. 335 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: A quotes to that to me said, government can create demand, 336 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: it cannot create supply. One source of inflation is a 337 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: preponderance of the former in relation to the latter. And 338 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 1: this was in the context of defense spending in particular. 339 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: We're about to talk to Mike McGinnis from the the 340 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 1: Committee for Responsible Federal Budgets. So tee up that conversation 341 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,919 Speaker 1: for us, that conversation about the role of government and 342 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: the relationship here to to inflation. Well, the you know, 343 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:29,640 Speaker 1: the government can indeed create money, it does effortlessly, uh, 344 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: and it can create demand, especially with with with ease 345 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: in the matter of defense spending. Um, with regard infrastructure, 346 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: you have to get permits, and you have to get 347 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: those famous shovels which seem not to be so ready 348 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: with regard to defense spending. You call up uh, your 349 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,719 Speaker 1: General Dynamics or somebody, and you place your order. So 350 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 1: I think that if the let's let's say that Mrs 351 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,479 Speaker 1: Clinton wins and and she is same as for not 352 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: only republic views also for her private one stay. She 353 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: moved to the center station, reaches accord with her um 354 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 1: con freres across the aisle, and they agree they will compromise. 355 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: She will get massive infrastructure spending and free college tuition 356 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 1: and for all we know, free dental care. And just 357 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: so the Republicans don't field left got they will get 358 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 1: their original democracy and impossible that the bond market is 359 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: not anticipating the full onslaught of this new adventure in 360 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: criscal policy. Jim, to your critics, I've got to ask 361 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 1: this question. You called for higher interest rates for years. 362 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 1: When do we see it? Um two thousand and fourteen. 363 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: Time I keep on talking. That's good that you become 364 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: a perma guest, permast and surveillance. It's called a back cast. 365 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 1: We back cast with Jim Grant. Jim, wonderful to see you. 366 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: May your bow type bright today. Jim Grant of the 367 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 1: Grants interest rate observer, always brilliant. I love his tone, 368 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: the arc of the narrative, which perfectly captures some of 369 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 1: the bizarreness that we are living right now. Who you 370 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust 371 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: in independent registered investment advisors to the two and of 372 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,199 Speaker 1: four trillion dollars. Why they see their roles to serve, 373 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the 374 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 1: success over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately dedicate 375 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:40,880 Speaker 1: themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn more 376 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 1: and find your independent advisor dot com. David Current Time 377 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 1: King David yesterday, we peruse the collapse of another hope 378 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: in the media business. I say hope, folks, with guarded use, 379 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: because as a rule, if I see the word of hope, 380 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: h O p E and anything to do with investment, 381 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,640 Speaker 1: I circled the word and hold on to my wallet. 382 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 1: David Gurra, that was ugly yesterday, wasn't It was Gannett 383 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: abandoning its bid, a six eighty million dollar takeover bid 384 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 1: for Trunk what was once called the Tribune Publishing Company. 385 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: Uh here to talk more about. That is one of 386 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: the sharpest minds when it comes to the future of media. 387 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 1: That is Ken Doctor. He is a media consultant. He 388 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 1: writes the News and Omics column at the Namon Journalism's 389 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 1: spent twenty one years at Night Rider Time. Yeah I did, 390 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 1: and Ken Doctor folks has read every word of his book, 391 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: News and Omics. It was age. It was years light years, 392 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 1: Ken Doctor ahead of anybody else. If you wrote News 393 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: and Omics the sequel today, what would be the first chapter? 394 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: The first chapter is the Changing Time. I'm working on it. 395 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 1: Thanks for you are encouragement. I appreciate it. The first 396 00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 1: chapter is probably gonna be rooted in the changing cities 397 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 1: and changing population, So thinking about not the news problems 398 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: and the news industry problems of today, but the kind 399 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: of people we are becoming, and how technology is changing, 400 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 1: how we can serve up information, and thereby how it's 401 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,920 Speaker 1: going to get paid for. So trying to be future reaching. 402 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,120 Speaker 1: I appreciate, I appreciate your kind words. They're written, um 403 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: tens of thousands of words in these columns, and I'm 404 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: trying to step back from that point. What sprouts that 405 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: are working at this point? Can this deal falls apart? 406 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: Yesterday you wrote a column on the heels of that. 407 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 1: You said, for the money guys all around this deal, 408 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: it's a phenomenon they've seen before. It is just a 409 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: broken deal. The money guys don't reach for the Kleenex, 410 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: They open Excel. What happens here to Gannet? What happens 411 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 1: to the company re christened his Trunk back in June. 412 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 1: I think Trunk is still a short term. K Ace 413 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 1: has been a it's been a point of ridicule this year, 414 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 1: but it's still we got to recall the home of 415 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 1: major newspapers, and it is still very unstable. They reported 416 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:17,359 Speaker 1: their third quarter earnings yesterday and basically not much difference 417 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:22,719 Speaker 1: than Gannet down the ten eleven in advertising huge amount 418 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 1: this year and those seven percent in overall revenues, and 419 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 1: the mighty Tribune company, even if you want to call 420 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: it Trunk here only made net Gaina eight million dollars 421 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: for the quarter. Plus. The big deal with Trunk, I 422 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,439 Speaker 1: think is the coming lawsuits from their major investors, not 423 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 1: privolous ones, but major one saying that Michael Farrow's original 424 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 1: deal was tainted. This has this is going to greatly 425 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: complicate their lives. And then also I think the stareholders 426 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,199 Speaker 1: wanting to catch out. So I think that that's the 427 00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: immediate future of Trunk. Okay, I want to talk about 428 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: the down the road Ken which you're so good, folks 429 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: if you're just joining his Ken Doctor he writes in 430 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 1: political and of course writes his news and omics blog, 431 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 1: which is must read within all the media. My grade 432 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: three theme Ken Doctor is the idea that it's not 433 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,960 Speaker 1: about ad revenue dynamics, income statement dynamics, etcetera, etcetera. It's 434 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 1: about a massive change my observation and how we consume media. 435 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 1: Where are we going to be in twenty four months 436 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 1: if Mr Sulzburg is listening this morning or Mr Bloomberg 437 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: or anybody else where are we going to be in 438 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 1: twenty four months in the consumption of the product, well, 439 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 1: the the consumption of the product. Uh. We talked about 440 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 1: two thousand and sixteen being the year of the platform, 441 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 1: and I think that is both true and overhyphed. So 442 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 1: everybody said, well, it's Facebook just gonna overcome everybody, and 443 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 1: it's everybody's gonna read everything, including the news, on Facebook, 444 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: and in truth be writing about this next couple of weeks. 445 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: Facebook certainly pushes a lot of traffics in newspapers, uh, 446 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: newspaper sites, but the main readers of Mr Salizburger's paper 447 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 1: are those who go to its digital site, especially now 448 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 1: with the anxiety of the election, several times the day 449 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 1: or an hour, and these are people called subscribers. Um. 450 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: As Mark Thompson has said, of all the digital revenue 451 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: comes into the Times comes from twelve percent of digital audience. 452 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: So even twenty four months from now, even with Facebook 453 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 1: and Snapchat and whatever's gonna be out there in two 454 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 1: thousand eighteen, it is that reader connection of us paying 455 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 1: for the information and news that we value and trust, 456 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 1: that is that is pushing the company's over over towards 457 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 1: the finish line. That's where the Times is at. The Journal, 458 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 1: even with this problems, is in in a decent position 459 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 1: there financial time, Boston Globe is getting there. It is 460 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: that reader connection. And so I think we shouldn't let 461 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 1: technology all the move the platforms obscure of the fact 462 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 1: that only thing is gonna say good print based media 463 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: is reader payment and reader subscription can how important is 464 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 1: local right now? I remember not too long ago, that's 465 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 1: where the conversation was. There was that sharp divide within 466 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 1: the Washington Post newsroom, for example, between the grand family, 467 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: who said, this is a local audience. We've got to 468 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 1: keep this paper local. There is Steve Call agitating for 469 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 1: it to become an international paper of record, not unlike 470 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 1: the New York Times. You looked at the advent of 471 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 1: of Patch that since sort of fall into it to 472 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: the wayside. Some Um, what does the Gannette deals say 473 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 1: about what local means? Right now in two thousand and sixteen, 474 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: local is and remember I'm an optimist, local is wasting away. 475 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,080 Speaker 1: It's wasting away before our eyes. So even as Ghannette 476 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: was trying to finalize this trunk deal um a week ago, 477 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 1: they cut two percent of its workforce people, And so 478 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 1: you had in Salem, Oregon, not not a small city, 479 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: the top editor and the opinion page at both laid off. 480 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 1: In stan Cloud, Minnesota, middle size city, down to twenty 481 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: people in the newsroom from thirty to two years ago. 482 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 1: Examples all over the country. We literally have about half 483 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 1: the number of journalists and daily newsrooms, local daily rooms 484 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 1: that we have. You predict, do you predict more like 485 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: the Independent where print goes away and it's just all digital. No, 486 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 1: because on a local basis, if you do that, you 487 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: take a newsroom of eighty and you reduce it to 488 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 1: maybe fifteen. That's all you can pay for because so 489 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: little of the revenue is digital at this point, So 490 00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 1: it doesn't work. It works on a national basis to 491 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,040 Speaker 1: some degree for the Independent UK, it will not work 492 00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 1: on a local basis. We're going to continue with Ken Doctor. 493 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: That's what we want to talk about more than National 494 00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 1: View where them I can't say enough about news and nomics. 495 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 1: I'll be blunt's a little bit data down. We all 496 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: beg for Kenn Doctors to do the sequel. He'll do that. 497 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 1: He'll do That is free time. But it was a 498 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 1: great book. At the time, really at breaking book on 499 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: all the stuff we have on our hands every day 500 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 1: and what our kids are doing, and that how we consume. 501 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,960 Speaker 1: I'm Nut's David Gura. My theme for next year within 502 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 1: all we do here at Bloomberg is think like the audience, 503 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 1: Think like the listener on Bloomberg Radio, Think like the viewer. 504 00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: How do we consume? What a pleasure to have Ken 505 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,719 Speaker 1: Doctor with us. Uh. He is truly one of the 506 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 1: nation's experts on the oddities of our media, print media 507 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 1: and certainly this migration we're all living in real time 508 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: to digital. We continue our discussion now with Ken Doctor 509 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 1: writing in political and of course his classic book News 510 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:40,720 Speaker 1: and Nomics. Ken Doctor is Twitter the new newspaper. No, 511 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: it's just the root, which I think we should not 512 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 1: get confused between the roads and the destination. It's a 513 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 1: great road, and especially those of us are in and 514 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:56,520 Speaker 1: around media use it, but it's just a road. Um Twitter, Yahoo, Um, Google, Facebook. 515 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: They don't create the news. The same companies create the 516 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 1: news and we you ever seen that being more important 517 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: than two six? How do they cut costs within the 518 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 1: manufacturers of the product that's distributed with through Twitter? What's 519 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:16,240 Speaker 1: the next iteration of cost cutting in in the twitters 520 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: or in the newspapers, the newspaper business, the media business 521 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 1: in general. So it's exactly what gannette strategy is. And 522 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,920 Speaker 1: and you said you have the top you know what's 523 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 1: what's Ganet's what's Gannet's next plan. Gannette's plan is singular. 524 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 1: It is cost consolidation, and it is based on um 525 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 1: having papers. For instance, if they have gotten the Chicago Tribune, 526 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: it's not far from the Milwaukee paper. You combine printing, uh, 527 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: you print a little earlier, UM you have one. You 528 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 1: have one printing plant, your distribution plants, UM, you share 529 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,959 Speaker 1: copy editing, you share ad sales, that kind of stuff. 530 00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,880 Speaker 1: It is a basic cost consolidation strategy, which of course 531 00:33:55,920 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 1: we see in all receding industries. Unfortunately, they can cut 532 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 1: costs at this point, which they've been cutting for a decade, 533 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 1: fast enough to equalize the loss in print advertising. So 534 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,839 Speaker 1: forgetting that, you've got the cost consolidation angle. But but 535 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 1: Bob the deo has brought another problem onto himself because 536 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: his his share prices dipped by my half as as 537 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,920 Speaker 1: investors have lost confidence first in the trunk deal over pain, 538 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 1: but now in the basic strategy, and there's questions of 539 00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 1: whether the consolidation strategy that he has, as he has advocated, 540 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 1: is gonna work ken very quickly here before we gotta 541 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,279 Speaker 1: let you go. The New York Times now has an 542 00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,680 Speaker 1: air apparent when it comes to to its publisher, Arthur 543 00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 1: Saltzberger has has named A. G. Saltzberger the deputy publisher. 544 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,200 Speaker 1: It looks like he'll be heading the paper soon. He's, 545 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 1: of course the one the architect behind the digital strategy 546 00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,239 Speaker 1: paper that was much ballyhood leaked out a little over 547 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: a year ago. What does the New York Times look 548 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,720 Speaker 1: like here in twenty four months? Let me take Tom's conceit. 549 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,239 Speaker 1: What does that paper look like? I saw yesterday at 550 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 1: the paper here announcing it's gonna do three sixty degree 551 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,439 Speaker 1: virtual reality video day after day after day. They're trying 552 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 1: a bunch of stuff here. What does that say about 553 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,320 Speaker 1: the paper strategy? And what are we gonna see in 554 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 1: about two years time? Well, what it says about the 555 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 1: strategy is, uh, they there, They are still spreading water. 556 00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 1: They are still treading water. They need to find a 557 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 1: another revenue sources to build on that basic successful digital 558 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 1: subscription strategy. So They've got a little cross Words product 559 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:32,200 Speaker 1: that has two thousand, and you saw a recommendations product 560 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,400 Speaker 1: called Watching that's just launched last week. What they are 561 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 1: looking for in all of these things VR and others 562 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:43,240 Speaker 1: is some new way to add onto our bills as subscribers, 563 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,319 Speaker 1: another tone a month or four ninety nine a month. 564 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 1: If they can do that and they can get a 565 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,680 Speaker 1: couple of hundred thousand here and a couple of hundreds 566 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,840 Speaker 1: thousand there, then that gives them that ability maybe to 567 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,439 Speaker 1: get even with the economy, which they haven't been even 568 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 1: with for for eight years now. Wonderful to have view 569 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 1: with us today. Ken doctor A News and Nomics is 570 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,440 Speaker 1: classic book, and of course his blog as well, and 571 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:09,280 Speaker 1: writing for Politico as he did yesterday. I'm gonnet Trunk. 572 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 1: It has been far too long. Amory Slaughter is a 573 00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 1: name you know, even if you don't know her. Her 574 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,799 Speaker 1: article four, I can't believe, Amory, it's four years ago. 575 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,000 Speaker 1: Why women still, Why women still can't have it all 576 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:38,719 Speaker 1: in the Atlantic arguably change the dialogue on culture in 577 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,800 Speaker 1: this nation. Emory Slaughter is with New America, their president, 578 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 1: their chief executive officer. Emory, let me just send you 579 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 1: an open question here before David Gurrow wades in, are 580 00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:57,400 Speaker 1: you enjoying this election cycle? No? Could anybody be enjoying 581 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,920 Speaker 1: this election cycle? Well, I think everybody wants it to 582 00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:04,320 Speaker 1: come to whatever that is their preferred end. You've written 583 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,200 Speaker 1: a piece here for foreign affairs looking at it's sort 584 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,799 Speaker 1: of a new suggesting a new way of looking at 585 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 1: the world. You draw a distinction between a chessboard view 586 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: and a web view. Let's dig into that a little bit. 587 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 1: Start with the chessboard view. What has that view looked 588 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 1: like for for a long time and what necessitates a change. 589 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 1: So the chess board view is traditional strategic geopolitics. Thank 590 00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:32,279 Speaker 1: Henry Kissinger. I think nineteenth century great game, great power politics, 591 00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 1: and it's it's still highly relevant in this world. We've 592 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,319 Speaker 1: got China or Russia or Iran or other powers, where 593 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,720 Speaker 1: basically global politics is you make a move, you figure 594 00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:46,520 Speaker 1: out what move your adversary is going to make. Sometimes 595 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:51,319 Speaker 1: a cooperator, you anticipate that. Uh, And it's it's a 596 00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,320 Speaker 1: it's a game. It's you can call it chess, you 597 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,240 Speaker 1: can call it poker. It's a very high stakes game. 598 00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:00,040 Speaker 1: But it is the traditional way that foreign policy. The 599 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 1: people have looked at the world and and the web view. 600 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:06,200 Speaker 1: How how is that different? So the web view is 601 00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,239 Speaker 1: a longside at the foreign of the chessboard view, and 602 00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:14,359 Speaker 1: it is increasingly important now. And it is the world 603 00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 1: of the internet, the world of networks, the world we're in, 604 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,520 Speaker 1: although we're in both at the same time. So if 605 00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:24,960 Speaker 1: you think about the most obvious example are terrorists networks 606 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,920 Speaker 1: or any global criminal networks, whether it's drug running or 607 00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:33,120 Speaker 1: arms trafficking or trafficking people, those are all criminal networks. 608 00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:37,000 Speaker 1: But then think about the global commercial networks, global supply chains, 609 00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:41,880 Speaker 1: global corporations, global civic movements. So you have everything from 610 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,600 Speaker 1: you know, amnesty internationally you have lots and lots and 611 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,680 Speaker 1: lots of networks. Okay, we've got networks. But to the 612 00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,520 Speaker 1: point of the foreign affairs issue and folks on populism, 613 00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 1: I can't say enough about it. This is this excludes 614 00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 1: so many people who cannot take advantage of it works. 615 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 1: Is that part of the tension right now? So many 616 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:08,879 Speaker 1: people feel on the outside. So I think that is 617 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:13,200 Speaker 1: right in many ways. Although that that's right in the 618 00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,200 Speaker 1: sense of a lot of this looks like elite networks, right, 619 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:21,480 Speaker 1: So networks of corporations, sure, networks of universities, yes, but 620 00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:26,239 Speaker 1: there are also religious networks, you know, church networks that 621 00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:30,560 Speaker 1: are can be very important. There are charity networks. There 622 00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:35,239 Speaker 1: are ways actually that that any number of people are 623 00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 1: part of global networks. But I do agree with you 624 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,480 Speaker 1: that part of the problem of globalization is that it 625 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,239 Speaker 1: has left so many people behind who feel like they're 626 00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 1: not globally connected, and they're certainly certainly not globally advantaged. 627 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,000 Speaker 1: How do you how does the leader of a country 628 00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:55,440 Speaker 1: deal with a circumstance in which you've got both things 629 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,839 Speaker 1: going on at once. You've you've got the chessboard view 630 00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,520 Speaker 1: and the web view at once. And here I'm I'm 631 00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,319 Speaker 1: thinking of of Russia in particular. It seems like there 632 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,720 Speaker 1: is a bit of that old school gamesmanship uh laid 633 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,399 Speaker 1: over perhaps, uh this web view of the world. Yes, 634 00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,160 Speaker 1: and this is what the argument in the article is. 635 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,640 Speaker 1: You've got to learn to see in stereo. You've got 636 00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,840 Speaker 1: to be able to see both and act on both 637 00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,640 Speaker 1: at the same time. So, on the one hand, Russia 638 00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 1: is a great power. Putin is clearly challenging us, US 639 00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:28,480 Speaker 1: meaning the West, in Ukraine, in Syria, you know, even 640 00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,919 Speaker 1: even with his relations with China, and in my view, 641 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,799 Speaker 1: we have to stand very firm. Different people have have 642 00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 1: different understandings. I think that he will he will take 643 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 1: as much as he can get, and if you give 644 00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:43,960 Speaker 1: him an in, she'll take a mile. So I think 645 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,880 Speaker 1: they're pretty much traditional Cold War politics, where you have 646 00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,520 Speaker 1: to stand firm, you have to be willing at times 647 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,680 Speaker 1: UH to at least threatened force. If you think about 648 00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,880 Speaker 1: the Cuban missile crisis, nobody wanted to go there, but 649 00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:00,040 Speaker 1: if you hadn't stood up, I don't know what what 650 00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,000 Speaker 1: have happened. In terms of Russia then the Soviet Union 651 00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,319 Speaker 1: in the world. But at the same time, you need 652 00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:07,359 Speaker 1: to think about the Russian people. You need to think 653 00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:11,560 Speaker 1: about the dissidents. Putin is very worried about domestic descent. 654 00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,240 Speaker 1: And there's a great deal we can do UH to 655 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:19,840 Speaker 1: create networks amongst digital activists in Russia and Europe and 656 00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:23,200 Speaker 1: the United States. Again, there are lots of young Russian 657 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:27,560 Speaker 1: business people who really don't want to support UH Plutin 658 00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:32,759 Speaker 1: and who you still need to build networks in colleges UH, 659 00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,520 Speaker 1: and so there are ways of engaging the people at 660 00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 1: the same time you engaged the government. David Durry here 661 00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,759 Speaker 1: with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Ready with 662 00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:46,520 Speaker 1: Amory Slaughter, CEO of New America, author of Unfinished Business, Women, Men, Work, Family, 663 00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,040 Speaker 1: Uh and Marie. Tom kicked things off by asking you 664 00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,040 Speaker 1: about this election and how eager you are for it 665 00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:52,920 Speaker 1: to be over with. I would be remiss if I 666 00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,879 Speaker 1: didn't ask you about the degree to which Wiki leaks 667 00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:57,799 Speaker 1: has played a role in all of this. You were 668 00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,960 Speaker 1: a victim, and I will use that word by choice 669 00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,440 Speaker 1: here some of your emails posted by that that site 670 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,200 Speaker 1: online from when you were a director of policy planning 671 00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,600 Speaker 1: it at the State Department. Let me take a step 672 00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,480 Speaker 1: back and ask you to reflect on what all of 673 00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,280 Speaker 1: this means for those who are working in government today. 674 00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:17,480 Speaker 1: I imagine there is a feeling of nakedness that probably 675 00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:21,320 Speaker 1: comes with seeing emails appearing online and being widely consumed. 676 00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,000 Speaker 1: How are colleagues of yours in government reacting to this? 677 00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:25,960 Speaker 1: What's the message it sends for for those who are 678 00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 1: in public service in the future. Well, I've been out 679 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,200 Speaker 1: of government now for a number of years, but it 680 00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:35,239 Speaker 1: essentially means you won't put things in email on That 681 00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,520 Speaker 1: means a lot of work won't get done. It's not 682 00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:42,239 Speaker 1: possible to talk to people on the phone. UH. You know, 683 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,759 Speaker 1: with the same regularity you can email. And you know, 684 00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,040 Speaker 1: particularly in some place like the State Department, people travel constantly, 685 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,800 Speaker 1: so without email, a lot of important work won't get done. 686 00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,400 Speaker 1: Or of course we will move to much more heavily 687 00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,040 Speaker 1: encrypted systems. I'll put a question to you. I put 688 00:42:58,040 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 1: to Steve Rattan a couple of days ago. We were 689 00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:01,640 Speaker 1: talking to him about his tenure when he was the 690 00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,680 Speaker 1: cars are the OBI administration UH and and he expressed 691 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:09,240 Speaker 1: some frustration at the lack of technological advancement in government. 692 00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:11,440 Speaker 1: There there is a deficit there and that leads people 693 00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 1: perhaps to to use UH, non government email for for 694 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,360 Speaker 1: government communication. Is that still a deficit in government? Was 695 00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,680 Speaker 1: that something that you encountered as well? Yes, the technology 696 00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:27,120 Speaker 1: in the State Department was fairly dismal, uh in terms 697 00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,719 Speaker 1: of the just how hard it was to be able 698 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,359 Speaker 1: to get onto the State Department server when you were 699 00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,160 Speaker 1: out of the office. And the UH it's it's really 700 00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,840 Speaker 1: they don't have the budget right and the the n 701 00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,799 Speaker 1: s A, the Defense Forman have very good technology, but 702 00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,400 Speaker 1: the other part of the government don't. And it hurts 703 00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:49,040 Speaker 1: us can I just in defensive and Marie Slaughter David 704 00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:53,359 Speaker 1: Garros say that of her emails in Wiki leaks were 705 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:59,480 Speaker 1: pizza orders and campono. Just everybody, everybody understands what we're 706 00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,799 Speaker 1: talking about. Well, there were a fair number to buy housekeeper. 707 00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:08,200 Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta say that Orthodontas de pointment exactly. Yeah, 708 00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,560 Speaker 1: boy do I know that, tune Um. I want to 709 00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,720 Speaker 1: go back to how you change the world in Marie, 710 00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,120 Speaker 1: Why women still can't have it all? Why men? Why 711 00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,520 Speaker 1: women still can't have it all? We're marching on in 712 00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:25,040 Speaker 1: an overworked time compressed age. Can there be government policy 713 00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:29,319 Speaker 1: that provides a sanity for the way all and with 714 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:33,880 Speaker 1: all agreement everybody would just women have to work in 715 00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:38,200 Speaker 1: this day and age. Yeah, I mean the main thing. 716 00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:42,160 Speaker 1: The first thing government can do is to mandate paid 717 00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:46,120 Speaker 1: family leave. And if you note, paid family leave has 718 00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:49,240 Speaker 1: been on the agenda from Sectary Clinton, from Donald Trump, 719 00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,080 Speaker 1: from Market Rubio, from Bernie Sanders. So I actually think 720 00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,920 Speaker 1: we're going to join the rest of the civilized world 721 00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,359 Speaker 1: and past laws that mean if you're sick, you don't 722 00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,560 Speaker 1: have to choose, or your child is you don't have 723 00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,839 Speaker 1: to choose between your child and your job. But there's 724 00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,120 Speaker 1: a lot more we need to do. Uh. And it's 725 00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,080 Speaker 1: not just for women, it's for all of us. It 726 00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,840 Speaker 1: really is for anybody who's a caregiver, whether you're a 727 00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:12,799 Speaker 1: father or a mother, or you're taking care of your 728 00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,319 Speaker 1: own mother and father. Uh. You know, everything needs to 729 00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,239 Speaker 1: work economically, and work has to make room for care. 730 00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,680 Speaker 1: I know. I look at the battle over the last 731 00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:26,319 Speaker 1: twenty four months over over time pay for workers, and 732 00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,880 Speaker 1: you know, the battle over the minimum wage, and everybody 733 00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:32,360 Speaker 1: listening has a different opinion on this. Is there a 734 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:39,120 Speaker 1: common ground in Washington to admit that digital exists? I 735 00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,200 Speaker 1: don't see it. I mean, I think half the people 736 00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,640 Speaker 1: that are running around with quill, you know, dipping it 737 00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:48,360 Speaker 1: in the ink bucket. Well, you know again, I do think. 738 00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:53,320 Speaker 1: I think there there's a big divide between our legislators 739 00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:55,279 Speaker 1: and much of the rest of the country there. But 740 00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,000 Speaker 1: on the other hand, the millennials are now the largest 741 00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:03,319 Speaker 1: single group in our country. And as one head of 742 00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:07,640 Speaker 1: HR said to me, millennials want to work anytime, anywhere anyhow. 743 00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,879 Speaker 1: And so you've got not just parents or caregivers saying hey, 744 00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:12,719 Speaker 1: wait a minute, I've got to be able to work 745 00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:14,160 Speaker 1: from home. I've got to be able to work from 746 00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,640 Speaker 1: the road. You've got millennials saying, you know what, what 747 00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:20,560 Speaker 1: century are you in? My work is tied to my computer. 748 00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,920 Speaker 1: And this is This is also true for jobs you 749 00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:26,600 Speaker 1: might not expect in terms of jobs where you think 750 00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,600 Speaker 1: they have to be tied to say, you know, I 751 00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:32,520 Speaker 1: could cashier or somebody who's been working in a service job. 752 00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:37,000 Speaker 1: Those jobs digital scheduling and make them money. Amory. You 753 00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,239 Speaker 1: don't see this, but girls over there trying to figure 754 00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:44,040 Speaker 1: out how to steal your name. I have a good one, 755 00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,239 Speaker 1: but I mlet't say that the conversation is a continuous 756 00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,360 Speaker 1: one at living all of this this myself and I 757 00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:53,319 Speaker 1: know that you're supporting Secretary Clinton in her candidacy, but 758 00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,879 Speaker 1: I wonder you must have been cheered too to hear 759 00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:57,960 Speaker 1: Donald Trump talking about some of these issues, having his 760 00:46:58,040 --> 00:46:59,759 Speaker 1: daughter on the campaign talking about them as well. It's 761 00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:03,600 Speaker 1: kind of superseding partisanship a bit. It seems like, yes, 762 00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:07,399 Speaker 1: and I should just add New America's nonpartisans So as 763 00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,759 Speaker 1: officially I'm not supporting anybody, but no, I look at 764 00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,440 Speaker 1: the speech that Ivanka Trunk gave. Trunk Trump gave in 765 00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,320 Speaker 1: uh in Cleveland is one that I probably could have given. 766 00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,799 Speaker 1: And indeed we had an event at New America with 767 00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:25,040 Speaker 1: representatives of the Clinton campaign and the Trump campaign both 768 00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:28,080 Speaker 1: saying work has to make room for care. No. Obviously 769 00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,000 Speaker 1: they have different policies, but it's an issue for all 770 00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,120 Speaker 1: of us. Dr Slaughter, thank you so much, Amrie Slaughter 771 00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:37,359 Speaker 1: New America, and I really can't say enough about her 772 00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:42,239 Speaker 1: contribution to the New Foreign Affairs magazine. Whatever your political inclination, 773 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:53,600 Speaker 1: it is thought provoking on populism. Thanks for listening to 774 00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:59,719 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, 775 00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:04,400 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm out on Twitter 776 00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,280 Speaker 1: at Tom Keene. David Gura is at David Gura. Before 777 00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:12,640 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. 778 00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,759 Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters? Investors have put 779 00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:32,120 Speaker 1: their trust and independent registered investment advisors to the two 780 00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:35,759 Speaker 1: and four trillion dollars Why Learn more at find your 781 00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,640 Speaker 1: Independent Advisor dot com