1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to Ron and Nanian The Car Doctor, nationally 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: recognized auto expert trusted by Mechanics, Weekend wrenchers and vehicle 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: owners Alife. Ron brings over forty years of hands on 4 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: experience and deep industry insight to help you understand your vehicle. 5 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: Join the Conversation live every Saturday from two to four 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: pm Eastern by calling eight five to five five six 7 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 1: zero nine nine zero zero. That's eight five to five 8 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: five six zero ninety nine hundred, your direct line to 9 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: honest answers and practical advice. Looking for more, visit cardoctorshow 10 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: dot com for past episodes, repair tips, and Ron's latest insights, 11 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: and be sure to subscribe to the Car Doctor YouTube 12 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: channel for exclusive videos, real repair footage and more. Now, 13 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: start your engines. The Car Doctor is in the garage 14 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: and ready to take your call. Welcome listeners, good to 15 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 1: be here with you today. We're going to dive right 16 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: into it once again. We welcome back Mark Mills, and 17 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: we're gonna be talking electric vehicles. So sit down, stay tuned, 18 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: and get ready for a shock no pun intended. Mark, 19 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: welcome back, sir, h hopefully well, yes, sir, thank you 20 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: very much it's good to have you. Yep, let's dive 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: right into it. You know, in the news recently, Well, 22 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: two things I want to talk about in the news. 23 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: Keep in mind, I want to talk a little bit 24 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: before the end of this hour with you. Germany just 25 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 1: did something very interesting with EV's right, they dropped the subsidies. 26 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: I think it was, but I want to I also 27 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: want to talk a little bit about you know, I 28 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: keep reading how coming out of Washington, the government is 29 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: trying these mandates on appliances. And I know that's not 30 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: necessarily a car show story or an EV story, but 31 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: that appliance mentality about trying to make all the appliances green. 32 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: There's an EV guideline to that also, is there not? 33 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 1: I mean, don't they tie them together? 34 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: Well, they're tied together first philosophically in this sense that 35 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 2: we have Washington bureaucrats mandating what kind of products you 36 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: can use or have not, but not regulating if you 37 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: like their physical safety, you know, like underwriter's lapse, but 38 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 2: mandating what you're allowed to buy, banning your ability to 39 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 2: purchase certain kinds of products. So it's exactly the same 40 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 2: the idea. Many states have tried this a number half 41 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 2: certain California that Big Main is going to do it 42 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 2: next is make it illegal for you to purchase a 43 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 2: gas water heater or a gas furnace or gas appliance 44 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 2: for stove for your home. So a product that is 45 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: in widespread use for well we'll call it centuries certainly 46 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 2: and globally in widespread use, it will now be banned. 47 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: And it's like banning cigarettes, I mean the people, and 48 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 2: we didn't, by the way, not to use a handhand analogy, 49 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 2: cigarettes are not banned, even though there probably isn't a 50 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: single listener listening who doesn't think, even if they're smokers, 51 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 2: the cigarettes don't hurt you. I mean, come on, you 52 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: could do lots of things that hurt you that you enjoy. 53 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 2: I get that for human But the government is long 54 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 2: held that cigarettes are dangerous, and we didn't ban cigarettes, 55 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 2: which affirmatively hurt people and cause insurance costs go up 56 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 2: in the health industry, healthcare industry. So here we come 57 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 2: along and for the putative assumption that some small incremental 58 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 2: benefit to the far future from not burning natural gas 59 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 2: in your home in emitting carbon dioxide, we should ban 60 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 2: a product I mean, I never mind the motivation, the 61 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: idea behind it is really offensive. So I save for cars, 62 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: I'm going to ban the sale of internal combustion engines. 63 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 2: So far in twelve states, DC is just getting ready 64 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: to do it next in at least a dozen countries 65 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 2: have stood up to do that, and the EPA's new 66 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: rule would expectively ban internal combustion sales for sort of 67 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 2: seventy eighty percent of all vehicles by twenty thirty two. 68 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 2: I think it is so this is a phenomenal overreach. 69 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 2: The only time we've had bands of the scale it 70 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: was one time in American history, which is, of course 71 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 2: the ban on alcohol consumption. 72 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 3: You know, I think I think about that, not till 73 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 3: i'm a I'm not a huge drinker, but I remember that. 74 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 3: You know, you start making the comparison that, yeah, we 75 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 3: had prohibition and that that didn't that didn't end too well, 76 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 3: because here we are it's available. 77 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 2: Again, right, not available again? What it did? LA then 78 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 2: at law on intended consequences about laws, Well, you try 79 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 2: to ban something it's widely consumed and used, you create 80 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 2: all sorts of u intended consequences, not least the criminality 81 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 2: that surrounded everybody's still consuming alcohol and traded underground industry. 82 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 2: The other band, by the way, which is relevant to 83 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 2: the EB domain or cars in general, was the ban 84 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 2: of driving quickly in nineteen seventy three, when we banned 85 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: banned ability to drive at normal speeds over fifty five 86 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 2: an hour. And what that did is that it it 87 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 2: was the It was even more even a more widely 88 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: flouted law than the ban and consuming alcohol because people 89 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 2: simply ignored it, and you know, lot more speeding tickets. 90 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 2: A lot of cops just ignored it. Some didn't. But 91 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 2: it really is a very dangerous thing to ban things 92 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: that are silly, to ban that people will ignore and 93 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 2: create under you know, all kinds of unattended consequences. But anyway, 94 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 2: the ban, the ban on the appliances is no different 95 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 2: than the ban on cars. It's motivated by the same thing, 96 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 2: the same bad instincts to to have status control over 97 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: consumer choices that are you know, convenient, insensible. 98 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 3: I think, I think the sad thing about the appliance 99 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 3: ban and what they're trying to take away from is 100 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: they might be able to achieve it, because yeah, I 101 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 3: can get this, but I can't get that. The problem 102 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 3: is going to be you know if you don't have 103 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 3: you know, the electric cost right where back there, because 104 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 3: they want to convert every appliance to electric something or 105 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 3: electric water heater, or minimized the amount of natural gas 106 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 3: flowing through the natural gas device. And it's like the 107 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 3: ev situation. And this is where I think the analogy 108 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 3: in my mind where I was trying to put the 109 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 3: two together, is we don't have the resources. It's not 110 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 3: you know, it's like we keep saying we want to 111 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 3: go back in time. I want to be eighteen again. 112 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 3: It just it just can't happen. It's not it's not 113 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:25,799 Speaker 3: physically possible. 114 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 2: Well, if you shift, if you shift that much energy 115 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 2: demand from gas to electric, which is what the goal is, 116 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 2: then you're right. You have to build electric infrastructure to 117 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 2: handle it, and we're not just flat and to do 118 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 2: it takes time and also cost money. And of course 119 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: you've now you've increased risks to society. One of the 120 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: benefits of having two fuels to your house when there's 121 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 2: power ours is you still have hot water, you still 122 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:57,119 Speaker 2: have sove that works, fireplace they could use. That doesn't 123 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 2: happen in the electric world, which is which is high 124 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 2: risk by definition. 125 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 3: You know, when are they gonna when are they going 126 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 3: to prevent this from lighting fires in the fireplace? 127 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 2: Well that you know, well, Colorado a long time ago 128 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 2: banned new house construction with with with with fireplaces. 129 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 3: Yeah really I didn't know. Yeah, I didn't know that. 130 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 3: That just bring a board. Another thing to mind. I 131 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 3: was watching this show on Netflix the other day. They 132 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 3: were talking about food and beef and and cows and 133 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 3: how cows emit. I don't know if this is true 134 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 3: or not. I get it must be true. I saw 135 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 3: it on TV. You know, cows emit. The current population 136 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 3: of cows in the United States emit more greenhouse gases 137 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 3: than the entire transportation industry. It was some astounding claim 138 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 3: that cows are more deadly to the environment than the automobile. 139 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,679 Speaker 2: And they want to they want to ban milk and beef. 140 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 2: So what they're referring to is the fact that the 141 00:07:55,400 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 2: ruminant bacteria in the cows gut uh digestion of grasses 142 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 2: by cows and all that class of creatures emits methane. 143 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: Methane is a more powerful in the greenhouse lexicon, more 144 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 2: powerful greenhouse casts and co two by depending how you 145 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 2: measure by a fact. For twenty, So you know, a 146 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 2: pound of methane emitd is like twenty pounds of carbon dioxide. 147 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: It's shorter lived in the atmosphere, but that's what it does. 148 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 2: So that's some of the rules that are being promulgated 149 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: are directed not just the carbon dioxide emissions from combustion, 150 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 2: and it's not from cow farts. It is commonly that 151 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 2: smell of sulfur dioxide for the college kids that remember 152 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:42,479 Speaker 2: what the misbehaviors and enjoyment they had at the flatulence, 153 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 2: But it's methane burps. It's the burping cows, the biodigestion 154 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 2: by bacteria of grasses, and of course termites forget meat 155 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 2: and beef, theite termites emit methane as well, and the 156 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 2: one of the largest sources of methane emissionslobally are from termites. 157 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: We don't count them because we don't eat termites, we 158 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 2: don't grow termites, so they're irrelevant. But yet we want 159 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 2: to regulate cows because you know, we grow cows. I mean, 160 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 2: it's the path is uh yeah, I would use the 161 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,439 Speaker 2: word in saying because it's probably the right word to use, 162 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 2: this path towards trying to find every possible source of 163 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 2: human emissions of greenhouse gases and regulator to ban. And 164 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 2: it's really it's not going to end well because you 165 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 2: can't do it. I mean, it's just no matter what 166 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: people are saying, it just can't be done. 167 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 3: So does you know, going back to where we started 168 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 3: our conversation, does the appliance controls we see currently being 169 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 3: applied by Washington is that a reflection of the mentality 170 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:45,679 Speaker 3: of what they expect from the electric vehicle And that's 171 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 3: why they're dragging us. I mean you in that direction. 172 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 3: I mean you just said I know that you know 173 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 3: Washington d C is going to add the band or 174 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 3: Washington is going to add the ban. I don't know 175 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,599 Speaker 3: if you meant DC or the state, but you know 176 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 3: we're we're again. And yet some states are saying say, hey, 177 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 3: we can't do this, it's not going to work right. 178 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 2: Well, I number of states they're not all on board, 179 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 2: but Washington d C. Is the fact though, banning internal 180 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 2: combustion engines through the EPA's proposed rule, and that's being challenged. 181 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 2: But that'll, you know, we'll see how it goes. I 182 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 2: never no governments can do a lot. The district of Columbia, 183 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 2: it South has joined California, New York and made other 184 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,840 Speaker 2: states in banning the ability as a resident of that 185 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 2: state to purchase an internal combustion engine by the year 186 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 2: twenty thirty two. I think it is so, you know, 187 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 2: long before we get to that point in time, if 188 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: those laws and bans stay on the books, long before 189 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: we get to that period, this is only only eight 190 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 2: years out, long before then, automakers, if those bands stay 191 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 2: in place, we'll have to think about whether they shut 192 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 2: down a lot of factories because they'll be overproducing internal 193 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 2: combustion engines, and those decisions will have to be made 194 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 2: a few years from now, not seven eight years from now. 195 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 2: In a few years from now. You have to get 196 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 2: ahead of that curve. So they really think those bands 197 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 2: will stay in place. Then you'll begin to see auto 198 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 2: industry production ramping down because you won't be able to 199 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 2: sell the products, and you've got to start thinking strategically 200 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 2: about what you can close and quickly can close it. 201 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 2: And of course the effect of that will be to 202 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 2: raise the costs of vehicles. Will be fewer vehicles available preemptively, 203 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 2: and we'll raise the cost of used cars. As we've 204 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 2: talked about before, and raise the cost of repairing use 205 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 2: cars because people are going to keep the cars longer, 206 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 2: and it's going to be a very vicious downward spiral 207 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 2: of high costs and inconveniences that will begin again, not 208 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 2: in twenty thirty two when the bands are proposed, but 209 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 2: before it by. 210 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 3: Years Soles unless we come back to the same side 211 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 3: of the coin. So makes this election. You're very, very interesting. 212 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 3: You're listening to Ronnanni and the Car Doctor. I'm talking 213 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 3: to Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute and we're chatting 214 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 3: away about EV's and a bunch of other topics this hour. 215 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 3: So stay put, Mark, stay on the side there. I'm 216 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 3: running any of the Card Doctor. We'll both be back 217 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 3: right after this. Don't go away. Welcome back, listeners, running 218 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 3: Any and the Car Doctor are here with the UH 219 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 3: often imitated, never duplicated, underappreciated. Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute, 220 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 3: hanging in there. 221 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 2: Mark. 222 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 3: I had to give you that one, right, you know, it's. 223 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: As good I'll take. I'll take it all I. 224 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 3: Do have to go ahead. I'm sorry. 225 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 2: I want to correct one thing I should have told 226 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 2: you at the outset UH. First of the year I 227 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 2: left the Manhattan Institute, my beloved Manhattan suit, where I'm 228 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 2: supposed contributing editor to its great city journal. But now 229 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 2: I am a distinguished and you'll have to treat me 230 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 2: with more respect. Now, Ron, I am a distinguished, distinguished 231 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 2: Senior Fellow with the Texas Public Policy Foundation. I've changed 232 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 2: courses because they made me an offer, uh, to come 233 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 2: and play with them, but especially to help build the 234 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 2: new National Energy Initiative think tank of some kind based 235 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 2: in Washington. It's not a Texas based activity, but a 236 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 2: Texas sponsored activity, because well, Texas is the energy giant 237 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 2: of America and in fact of the world. 238 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 3: And they and they realize what's at stake. They do 239 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 3: right one last thing from our last conversation. And by 240 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 3: the way, congratulations for that. I don't want to just 241 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 3: ignore that. That's kind of neat. 242 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 2: You know. 243 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 3: About two weeks ago in the news, Germany decided to 244 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 3: do away with the incentive for purchasing or supporting evs. 245 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 3: What was that all about? 246 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 2: Money? Apply, money matters? What a shock? Yeah, I mean, 247 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 2: you can't subsidize everything forever. And what it was all 248 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 2: about is the it made a lie of the trope 249 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 2: that if you subsidize EV's, the volumes will go up 250 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 2: and they'll get cheaper. And EV's are inherently more expensive 251 00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 2: than conventional cars, except for in the luxury market, which 252 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 2: is functionally irrelevant to most of the world. So for 253 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 2: the everyday car, evs are inherently more expensive, and they 254 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 2: are now being produced at scale. We're no longer talking 255 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 2: about a nascent industry. There are millions of them being manufactured. 256 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 2: Kessel did over a million a year themselves last year. 257 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 2: It's a mature, a large industry, and it still requires 258 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 2: massive subsidies to get people to buy them, which means 259 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 2: governments are facing the prospect if they push evs, is 260 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 2: the only vehicle you're allowed to buy, is subsidizing every 261 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 2: car everybody buys. So it's unsustainable. You can't you can't 262 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 2: do these kinds of things. And the lie that they 263 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 2: get cheap is not true. 264 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 3: So wait, you're telling me that Germany woke up and said, wait, 265 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 3: we can't afford to continue in this path. Let's just 266 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 3: let's eliminate it and stop it here. 267 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, they they did other things. Remember, they are pursuing 268 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 2: this aggressive wind and solar path and their grids and 269 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 2: that are there's a sense you no. I believe last 270 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: year there was no net new orders in Europe for 271 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 2: for turbanes win turbans, and they are reactivating coal plants 272 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: in Germany, digging up more coal, and the costs of 273 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 2: the natural gas is soaring because of their because of 274 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 2: the understandable policy to deal link from Russian gas. But 275 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: that means instead of the geopolitical discounts that Putin was 276 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: giving Germany, they're gone. So energy got more expensive and 277 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 2: their economy is shrinking and they're de industrializing and so on. 278 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 2: The at all of it's on the backs of bad 279 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 2: energy policy. That's where all came from. It all, it 280 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 2: all comes back to bad energy policy being mandated by 281 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 2: the government unaffordable. So the next domino is the one 282 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 2: that just fail, which is knocking out EV subsidies. 283 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 3: So when does that fall here now? 284 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: And that's a good question, I mean, I well, you know, 285 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 2: if it takes as long to happen here as it 286 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 2: did there, we're in for a few more years. I 287 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: think a fiscal sanity will rather than somebody deciding that oopes, 288 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 2: we were wrong, we don't like EV's that's not going 289 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 2: to happen I like evs. As you know, we've talked 290 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 2: about the performance opportunities and different kind of flexibility for 291 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 2: nice They're great fun, but that's not the same thing 292 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 2: as mandating everybody have one and subsidizing it. So I 293 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 2: think fiscal reality will will come back into play here 294 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 2: faster than it did in Germany for a whole lot 295 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 2: of reasons. And so if I were picking it, if 296 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 2: we want to take an over under Bet, I'd take 297 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 2: two years. I'd say I'd say two years. The substitutes 298 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 2: go away, even if there's an even if even if 299 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 2: Democrats have the White House, I think it's going to 300 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 2: be financially unsustainable. That's what I think will happen. 301 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 3: All right, Well, i'll take that prediction. We'll we'll we'll 302 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 3: talk again in two years. Personally I think it's going 303 00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 3: to Personally I think it's going to be eleven months. 304 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 3: But we'll kind of take that. We'll kind of taken 305 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 3: it comes you're. 306 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 2: Setting aside who wins the election eleven months, even if 307 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 2: the red team instead of the Blue team wins, Uh, there's 308 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 2: a lag because the you know, we've got then not 309 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 2: till a year from this January before the next inauguration 310 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 2: and then you have spool up time, which takes six months. 311 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 2: But you know, President could be could end by executive 312 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 2: order the subsidies. 313 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 3: Sure, yeah, I get it. 314 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 2: They could try, But they could try. I don't know 315 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 2: if they could get could get away with it, because 316 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 2: it's you know, it's a legislation, depends who has a 317 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 2: House and Senate. It's messy. I guess my point is. 318 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 3: It becomes political. 319 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:43,120 Speaker 2: Mark. 320 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 3: Let's pull over, take a pause. I'm running any and 321 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 3: the card Doctor here with Mark Mills. We'll both be 322 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 3: back right after this. Don't go away. Welcome back running 323 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 3: the Card Doctor here. We're talking Mark. With Mark Mills, 324 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 3: we're talking EV's and all the peripheral conversations that go 325 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:02,959 Speaker 3: along with that statement. As we roll along, Mark, we 326 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 3: you know, I knew, and I could probably talk a 327 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 3: lot longer than the time we always have. I want 328 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: to get into insurance costs. We've never really done a 329 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 3: deep dive, but you know there's a lot of things 330 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 3: that go along with that term insurance costs and evs. 331 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 3: Electric vehicles enlighten us. 332 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the big wildcard here, as you know, is 333 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 2: ensuring the most expensive part of that vehicle which is 334 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 2: the battery, and unlike an internal combustion engine car, there's 335 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 2: no single component that has such a high proportion of 336 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 2: the cost of the vehicle. So roughly speaking, the batteries 337 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 2: fifteen thousand dollars could be a smaller car ten thousand. 338 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 2: That's the manufacturer's cost, so fifteen thousand. Then the big 339 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 2: ones could be twenty thousand. It's a lot of money. 340 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 2: And the battery structure is extremely important for safety reasons, 341 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 2: so if there's any mechanical damage to the battery pack, 342 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 2: it's a huge thing in the floor the pan of 343 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 2: the car. Since it's a write off, the batteries can't 344 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 2: be repaired the way an internal combustion engine can. You know, 345 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 2: it's a very complex machine. People think it's simple. It's 346 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 2: not a box of goo, it's not an empty tank. 347 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 2: There's thousands of components, thousands of wells, power electronics, cooling systems, 348 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 2: structural systems, safety systems. It's more complex than an internal 349 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 2: combustion engine. It made from lots of exotic stuff, unlike 350 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 2: an engine, which is cast iron steel. Very easy to 351 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 2: fix them, frankly comparatively, and you can fix them, so 352 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 2: that cost is not really showing up yet in the data. 353 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 2: Except this is my theory. Generally speaking, overall car insurance 354 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,119 Speaker 2: costs have been rising across the country. It's not just 355 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 2: that it's getting more expensive to repair cars. I think 356 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 2: what's going on is the percentage of cars that are 357 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 2: being totaled for minor accidents. It's far higher with EBS 358 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 2: when we know this for a fact, and that cost 359 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 2: is being passed on to all of their insurance payers 360 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 2: because insurance gime's going to put the money somewhere, so 361 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 2: they haven't yet made ev makers I don't think pay 362 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 2: the actual underwritten cost of ensuring a vehicle that gets 363 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 2: into an accident that can be written off much more quickly. 364 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 2: And there's another feature, by the way, for Tesla's particularly 365 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 2: and if other automakers follow this, is that Elon Musk 366 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 2: is nothing brilliant made the cheaper to make his car 367 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,959 Speaker 2: because his frame is a single aluminum casting. No one 368 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 2: else has been to achieve that. It's a really incredible 369 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 2: engineering achievement, and good on him and his team. I mean, 370 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 2: it really is. It's amazing. But the problem with that 371 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 2: is that the aluminum is, you know, it's fragile relatively speaking. 372 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 2: I mean, if you get into an accident and do 373 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 2: damage to the frame of a steel car, you can 374 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 2: bend it back, you can replace a part. We can't 375 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 2: do that to a tesla. You're right off the frame, 376 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 2: right And that's so you get two things you're facing 377 00:20:56,640 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 2: that are changed. Insurance underwriting bill. You know that will 378 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: show up. It has to hope eventually, as you get 379 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 2: more and more evs on the road, and I think 380 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 2: what solution is uncomplicated. The electric car owner will pay 381 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 2: for the insurance higher insurance costs. Ultimately, that's what will happen, 382 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 2: and then insurance companies will be blamed for impeding the 383 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 2: eed revolution. 384 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 3: For gouging and all gouging, gouging, and all of a 385 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 3: sudden it will become their fall. 386 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 2: You know. 387 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 3: I heard a story recently in the news that someone 388 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 3: with a Rivian vehicle Rivian truck. Now I think I 389 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 3: think the analogy was the damage if it was a 390 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 3: gas vehicle would have been half the price. It was 391 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 3: a twenty six thousand dollars repair, and the debate was 392 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 3: do you fix it? And and it's it's it just 393 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 3: goes on every day. I've heard stories where insurance carriers 394 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 3: are pulling out of the state of Florida because of 395 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 3: the cost. Some of it's obviously due to, you know, 396 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 3: the losses they encountered over the last couple of years 397 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 3: with weather and hurricanes and so forth, but you know, 398 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 3: it's it's also because when an EV you know, when 399 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 3: a hurricane hits Florida, and how many evs get wiped out, 400 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 3: as they did in the last couple of storms, right 401 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 3: all of a sudden, the losses multiply at such a 402 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 3: rate that the insurance company can't make a rate of 403 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 3: return on their investment. You know, they you know, let's 404 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 3: talk how does an insurance company make money. My understanding 405 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 3: is obviously they're taking the money from you and I 406 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 3: and everybody else, and then they're investing it. They're putting 407 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 3: it into the stock market, they're putting it in places. 408 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 3: And when the market goes down. So now the market 409 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 3: goes down, the EV cost to repair goes up. It's 410 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 3: like the perfect storm for you. We don't want to 411 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 3: do this anymore. 412 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a problem. And some of it is higher 413 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 2: repair costs inherent in the fact that the parts are 414 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 2: more expensive or less available, the mechanics aren't available, but 415 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: that to be fair, some of that works out over 416 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 2: time in the sense that the training and availability of 417 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 2: mechanics and parts improves over time, but it takes a 418 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,199 Speaker 2: long time. It's not going to happen overnight. And so 419 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 2: those those are pretty typical features of any new product. 420 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 2: But the fact is, the inherent cost of so many 421 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,359 Speaker 2: of the components in an EV are higher than the 422 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 2: inherent cost of the conventional car. So by definition, it's 423 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 2: going to be more expensive to repair. And then when 424 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,439 Speaker 2: you add to that this other feature I mentioned, which is, 425 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 2: you know, there's no single component that is as expensive 426 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 2: in a conventional car as there isn't an EV when 427 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 2: as is the battery, and that's that's a very big risk. 428 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 2: You got one thing that if it's damaged in a 429 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 2: way that's going to make it unsafe, you have to 430 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,159 Speaker 2: write the vehicle off. And of course that's I had 431 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,159 Speaker 2: a friend who's whose wife drives a Tesla three. It's 432 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 2: a nice car. I've driven them a small minor vender 433 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 2: bender and they wrote it off. Minor says nobody was hurt. 434 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 2: It was, but it caused enough potential damage to the 435 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 2: integrity of the battery that is a vendor bender it's 436 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 2: obviously a little more than that, but they wrote it off, 437 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 2: and it wouldn't never have been a write off it 438 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 2: had been a been a convent che vehicle. 439 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 3: If you're standing in in front of two dealerships EV 440 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 3: or GUESS and you're trying to think about the cost 441 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 3: of ownership the GUESS version, the internal combustion engine. You're 442 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 3: familiar with that, if you've been driving a while, you know. 443 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 2: What the costs are. 444 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 3: You know what are the hidden costs with that EV 445 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 3: that you know people need to think about and make 446 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 3: a decision based on that. You know the things, the 447 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 3: things they're not telling us. You know, insurance is one 448 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 3: of them, right cost to repair as the other. 449 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 2: Well here sure, but here's the thing. In the current environment, 450 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,479 Speaker 2: given what we're doing and how we're subsidizing evs, how 451 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 2: we're subsidizing the recharge recharging, and if you haven't have 452 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 2: a garage, there's a very compelling argument being made for 453 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 2: your second or third guard to be an EV frankly 454 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 2: right now, because everybody else's is carrying the costs for you. 455 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 2: Then if you, if you, if you're one of the 456 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 2: owners that your at lease, you're a lease at lease, 457 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 2: are not a buyer, and you want to have a 458 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 2: car for a few years. You know, all all of 459 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 2: the residual value risk is taken by the less or 460 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: not you in the lease. You get the full credit 461 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 2: on the lease in the first few years of a vehicle. 462 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 2: Every vehicle's ownership is you know, as long as quality 463 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 2: controls readson well you don't how many you don't have 464 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 2: high repair costs not till later, so you you don't 465 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 2: have to worry about that. So it's the it's the 466 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 2: lease holder's problem when they take the vehicle back. So 467 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 2: and they're refueling costs are subsidized. Right now you're not 468 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 2: paying road taxes, which you will have to eventually, but 469 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 2: right now you're not. And if you could charge it home, 470 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 2: your your electric utility is subsidizing the electricity for you. 471 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 2: So's you know, not to be facetious, but it's true. 472 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 2: I've told family members that this is if you want 473 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 2: to second or third car to drive around town for convenience. 474 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 2: But I have like one of the better quality of 475 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 2: you have Bookswagen or the Testa three or the Hyundai's 476 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 2: are nice on to there, They're nice, they're well make cars, 477 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: especially in the first few years of lights, they're they're 478 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,719 Speaker 2: not as quite as reliable. You're not driving them as much, 479 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:00,919 Speaker 2: so you don't to worry about as much, you know, 480 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 2: driving a long bustans because you're just using it for 481 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 2: local driving. But that what that masks is that what 482 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 2: we're really talking about is not whether an individual should 483 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 2: buy an EV for their particular lifestyle choice. It's when 484 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 2: the government is saying to us that you could only 485 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 2: buy an EV and everybody's going to drive one, and 486 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 2: that's when the hidden costs show up. If the entire 487 00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 2: fuel system for vehicles to switch from gasoline to electric, 488 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 2: we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of 489 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 2: infrastructure costs which is not being factored in for the 490 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 2: charging networks, hundreds of billions, not billions, half a trillion 491 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,640 Speaker 2: dollars to upgrade the electric grid to charge all these vehicles, 492 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:45,159 Speaker 2: and another half a trillion dollars of high speed chargers 493 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 2: which will be needed on the road. So the current 494 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,439 Speaker 2: plan is to spend seven billion dollars on EV chargers 495 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 2: out of the Inflation Reduction Act. That's a drop in 496 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 2: the bucket. We're gonna we're gonna need to spend hundreds 497 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 2: of billions of dollars to get enough of them on 498 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,880 Speaker 2: the road. Those those are where the hidden costs coming 499 00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 2: in that are being completely ignored, and that that's non trivial. 500 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 2: We're talking trillion dollars of infrastructure that needs to be 501 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 2: put in place to have a significant share. In fact, 502 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:17,959 Speaker 2: the majority of vehicles become electric fuel instead of gasoline fueled. 503 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 2: It's these are electrical engineering challenges. They're not amenable to, 504 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 2: you know, magic waving a wand saying, oh, it'll get 505 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 2: better soon. We know how to do this stuff now, 506 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 2: we know what it costs now, and then you have not. 507 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,479 Speaker 3: A min about Then you have to think about the 508 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 3: cost of what it's going to take you to the land, 509 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 3: to the environment to build these things. Trees, forests that 510 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 3: have to be knocked down a lot. There, Mark, let's 511 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 3: pull over, take a pause for our last break. I'm 512 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 3: running ending in the Car Doctor. We're here with Mark Mills. 513 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 3: We'll return right after this. Welcome back, listeners, Running in 514 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 3: the Car Doctor here with Mark Mills. Mark, let's let's 515 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 3: go where our original conversation was at the start of 516 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:59,159 Speaker 3: this hour. We wanted to talk about ev batteries and 517 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 3: a bit of a deep dwell. I'll tell you it's 518 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 3: you know, if they gave us ten hours, we could 519 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 3: talk ten hours. You know, let's talk a little about 520 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 3: the true cost. I want to build an EV battery. 521 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:09,640 Speaker 3: What's it going to take? 522 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 2: Well, that's the true cost that evs cost. Its entirely 523 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 2: about the battery's. It takes a lot of stuff, a 524 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 2: lot of metals and minerals, a lot of chemicals. And 525 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 2: this is what people if they do a little research 526 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 2: with the magic Google machine, they can figure this out. 527 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,439 Speaker 2: But the typical battery weighs a half a ton, just 528 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,640 Speaker 2: the battery car. Which is why the EV's way more 529 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 2: and why EV's use more aluminum in the frame to 530 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 2: cut down on the weight penalty from the battery. So 531 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 2: to replace about sixty gallons of gasolane, you know, sixties 532 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 2: or sixty pounds of gasoline, you got, you got one 533 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 2: thousand pounds battery. In terms of what they're you know, 534 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 2: transporting around and that requires digging up somewhere on earth 535 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 2: are about two hundred and fifty tons of the earth. 536 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 2: Said this before, to get the metals and materials to 537 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 2: make why battery. That's where the money relies is they're 538 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 2: digging up all the earth to get the copper, to 539 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 2: get the aluminum, to get the manganese, to get the graphite, 540 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: to get the illuminum for the frame and for the 541 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 2: cathodes and anodes. All that costs money. All of it 542 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 2: costs more than the iron and steel that dominated regular car. 543 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 2: A regular car, three quarters of its weight, it's iron 544 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 2: and steel. That's not true for an EV. For an EV, 545 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 2: three quarter of its weight are exotic metals and minerals 546 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 2: at all cost more. You know, copper, the manganese lift him, 547 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 2: cobalt often, So where will the cost go in the future. 548 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 2: But it's complex heavy, you know, fuel tanks, the battery. 549 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 2: They're not going down significantly. They crept up and then 550 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 2: they crept down. Right now they finished their cost curve 551 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 2: decline from invention, And now the costs are going to 552 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 2: start creeping up because the marginal cost of the next 553 00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 2: ton of copper, the next ton of manganese is rising, 554 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 2: is the world's demand starts to rise. And that's because 555 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 2: we're not opening minds fast enough. This whole thing, everything 556 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 2: about the future price of an EV, the future costume EV, 557 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 2: can be distilled to a single thing. You want to 558 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 2: try to predict how fast will the world's miners open 559 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 2: new minds to mine the mega tons of metals we 560 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 2: need to make eb batteries. We know the answer to that. 561 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 2: They're not opening them quickly right now. They're not investing 562 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 2: in them. So my guess is they know something that 563 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 2: the automakers don't know. So they they know the mandates 564 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 2: are going to end, and they're not about to get 565 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 2: out of their skis with hundreds of billions of dollars 566 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 2: of investment to build mines over the next decade when 567 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 2: the demand for those metals is not going to appear 568 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: because no one is going to want to pay the 569 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 2: prices that are going to be demanded, you know, for 570 00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 2: the batteries. So that's that's just sort of the reality 571 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 2: that we're living with. And this is a mining question, 572 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 2: This is not a tech this is not a computer 573 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 2: technology question. To understand the future price of batteries, you 574 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 2: need to study the mining industry and the refining industry. 575 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 2: It's an industry dominated by slow cycles, long times to 576 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 2: build things, billion billions and hundreds of billions of dollars 577 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 2: of investments, mostly foreign. The minds that are all being 578 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 2: expanded are in Africa, South America, and Asia, mostly Chinese. 579 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 2: China dominates, utterly, utterly dominates the refining of the key 580 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 2: battery minerals. That dominates, I mean they have double the 581 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 2: market share globally in battery minerals that Opec has an 582 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 2: oil utterly dominate the battery minerals market, it will for 583 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 2: a decade. 584 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 3: It sort of sounds like it's all about making money. Mark, 585 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 3: That's about all the time we've got right now, we're going. 586 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 3: We can continue this again if the listeners want, where 587 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 3: can they follow you and your escapades and what you're 588 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 3: trying to accomplish, and we appreciate that. Is there a 589 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 3: website they can go to and find out more about 590 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 3: you and what's going on? 591 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I keep archive all my writings and speeches at 592 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 2: tech hyphenpundit dot com. Okay, tech hyphenpundit dot com. It's 593 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 2: everything's there, all free, easy to find, except for the 594 00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 2: paywald stuff. But you know, I apologize I can't control that. Well, 595 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 2: I mean, like Wall Street Journal, mopbands, those are paywald. 596 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 3: Yep, gotcha? All right, kettle, Hey listen, you be well 597 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 3: and we'll talk again real soon. Take good care, Thank you, 598 00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 3: You're very welcome. I'm ronnin Any and the Card Doctor. 599 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 3: I'm back right after this. Welcome back to listeners. You know, 600 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 3: Ron and Hanting the Card Doctor. It's it's always informative, 601 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 3: to say the least, talking to Mark Mills, and it's 602 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,719 Speaker 3: going to be interesting to see if his two year 603 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 3: prediction comes true about when the financial hard wall or 604 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 3: financial brick wall that we're supposed to hit with EVS 605 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 3: in terms of unfeasibility actually comes. And I bet you 606 00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 3: it does, all right, Mark's pretty accurate about these things. 607 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 3: He's got a good sense of where this is going. 608 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 3: One of the things he said to me off air was, 609 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 3: and I we're going to bring him back to talk 610 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,960 Speaker 3: about this in the future at a higher level, is 611 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 3: that there's no definitive proof. This is kind of staggering. 612 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 3: There's no definitive proof that EVS will help reduce CO 613 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 3: two emissions, and I would like to see it if 614 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 3: it's out there, because what he's saying is there's an offset. 615 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 3: We create a vehicle that doesn't burn fuel, doesn't you 616 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 3: know it's it's an electric vehicle, but the cost to 617 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 3: produce that in terms of the bulldozer that digs up 618 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 3: the dirt, the coal plant that produces the electricity, the 619 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 3: way the materials are manufactured, the way you know, we 620 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 3: cut down certain parts of vegetation and forests and things 621 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 3: like that. You know, it's there's the offset, so you know, 622 00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 3: it's it's it's it's a wash. And all we're doing 623 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 3: is spending trillions of dollars and it just it just 624 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,800 Speaker 3: makes me wonder. I know, from a mechanical perspective, at 625 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,880 Speaker 3: a you know, as a garage mechanic level, as I 626 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,160 Speaker 3: consider myself to be, you know, street level mechanic, I 627 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,600 Speaker 3: question who's going to fix all these cars and the 628 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 3: technology that's there. But that that's a story for another day. 629 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,920 Speaker 3: I've had an absolute pleasure of being with you this weekend, 630 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,080 Speaker 3: and I thank you for being here. Till the next time. 631 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,319 Speaker 3: I'm ronning Andy in the car doctor, reminding you good 632 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,280 Speaker 3: mechanics aren't expensive, they're priceless. See you