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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's gone for the wind, all right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing a job. I'm saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: And we'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win.

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Speaker 4: Oh god, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right. This is the ultimate kabaka.

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Speaker 5: And we are underway and welcome to another edition of

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Speaker 5: the Action Networks Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond here

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Speaker 5: with the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, my guys Stucky,

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Speaker 5: and we're here to break down NFL win totals.

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Speaker 4: They're out, they're up, we got thoughts, we got takes, stuck.

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Speaker 4: What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Man, it's going on. Brother, It's nice to be back.

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Speaker 2: I just spent the past three days updating all my

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Speaker 2: numbers models. I had to update my models for seventeen games,

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Speaker 2: which we'll talk about. Look, and I had college basketball.

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Speaker 2: I am so deep into it during the season, and

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Speaker 2: then college basketball is in April and I basically take

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Speaker 2: a week or two breather. I don't follow the NFL

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Speaker 2: at all, Like I am watching all college basketball all

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Speaker 2: the time. I have no idea what's going on. So

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Speaker 2: I spent this entire week being like, oh okay, that's

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Speaker 2: where that player ended up. So it was it was

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Speaker 2: really fun for this because you could just get fatigue,

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Speaker 2: especially like with COVID and college basketball, college football this year,

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Speaker 2: any season, like at the very end, it's like, all right,

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Speaker 2: I'm ready to go on. So it's nice to get

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Speaker 2: back in to NFL. But I ran through all of

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Speaker 2: my pre draft. You know, it's preliminary still in a way,

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Speaker 2: because there's more moves win totals. We'll go through every

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Speaker 2: division here. I have like a good over that I like,

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Speaker 2: a good under that I like in a future I

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Speaker 2: won't recommend too much because I mean, you're tying up

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Speaker 2: your money for so long and some things can change.

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Speaker 2: But I'm just looking forward to talking some NFL and

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Speaker 2: getting back in to uh, back into the flow.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, And I actually took a stab at at picking

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Speaker 5: all thirty two.

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Speaker 4: A lot of them are just leaned. It's so early

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Speaker 4: in a year.

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Speaker 5: But you guys can check that out at actionnetwork dot com.

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Speaker 5: And let's see if we agree or disagree on any

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Speaker 5: but it let's start in the AFC East.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's do this.

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Speaker 5: We have the Buffalo Bills. They're over under is ten

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Speaker 5: and a half. Which way are you weaning on that one?

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Speaker 2: I am all in on the Buffalo Bills this year.

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Speaker 2: I love this team.

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Speaker 4: The Bills make me throw your hands, throw your hand back.

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Speaker 4: Come on now, the Bills.

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Speaker 2: I'm making it happen now. But I chose you can

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Speaker 2: find a fourteen to one out there, fourteen to fifteen

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Speaker 2: to one. There's also like ten to one, which is

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Speaker 2: a little if here. But if you can find twelve

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Speaker 2: to one a little bit. But I mean, remember you're

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Speaker 2: tying up your money for almost year. But like fourteen

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Speaker 2: or one or better on the Super Bowl, I like.

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Speaker 2: I do like their win total over I haven't projected.

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Speaker 2: This is actually my biggest edge of any win total

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Speaker 2: I haven't projected, at eleven point nine wins. The reason

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Speaker 2: for that, I love this Bill seam. Look, I mean

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Speaker 2: pretty much to bring it back pretty much their exact

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Speaker 2: same team as last year. Helps when you have a

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Speaker 2: quarterback on a rookie contract, which they do. They you know,

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Speaker 2: lost John Brown, they brought in Emmanuel Sanders. I love

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Speaker 2: the staff. The whole coaching staff came back. There were

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Speaker 2: questions about that. I didn't think that they were going

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Speaker 2: to keep their coordinators, but they did. But I'm lower

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Speaker 2: on all three other teams, which is contributing to this

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Speaker 2: number being up. But there's a lot of variance with

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Speaker 2: those other teams, right, So the Patriots added a lot

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Speaker 2: of guys. I'm not as high on their additions as some,

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Speaker 2: but they definitely gave Cam Newton more weapons. They added

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Speaker 2: some pieces on defense with Judah and van Ney coming back,

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Speaker 2: Jalen Mills at safety. It's the revenge tour for Bill Belichick.

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Speaker 2: If you think that Cam Newton was injured last year

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Speaker 2: and still has it, the Patriots are going to be better.

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Speaker 2: If you think that Tua in his second year is

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Speaker 2: going to be a lot better, the Dolphins are going

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Speaker 2: to be a lot better. I personally, I'm I haven't

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Speaker 2: seen it from two yet. I think that the Dolphins

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Speaker 2: may have some regression coming in the defense and special

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Speaker 2: teams departments that were very fortunate in turnovers last year.

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Speaker 2: It was with the Dolphins. It is Fitzpatrick playing, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I might want to bet the Dolphins if the two

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Speaker 2: is playing, oh, I want to fade them like that

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Speaker 2: was how big of a difference there was between those two.

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Speaker 2: I know he's the future, but I still have to

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Speaker 2: see it from him. I'm not sold on Cam Newton anymore.

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Speaker 2: And then the Jets they're gonna have a new quarterback,

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Speaker 2: presumably Zach Wilson. What's he going to do as a rookie?

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Speaker 2: So quarterbacks the most important position in the NFL. There's

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Speaker 2: three major question marks a quarterback with the other teams.

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Speaker 2: So if it works out for the better, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Bills have to play these teams six times. Could

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Speaker 2: be the difference between going five and one and three

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Speaker 2: and three. Right, If two is a lot better, if

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Speaker 2: Cam Newton is a lot better than he was last year,

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Speaker 2: if Zach Wilson comes in and is you know, not

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Speaker 2: Kyle Bohler but Justin Herbert. Right. So I do like

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Speaker 2: the Bills over that's because I'm lowering those teams. I

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Speaker 2: prefer the future. I think that this team is going

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Speaker 2: to the playoffs. I think they're loaded, well coached. I

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Speaker 2: think that their coaching stat's going to learn a lot

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Speaker 2: from that loss last year against the Chiefs where they

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Speaker 2: kind of got away from everything they did all year,

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Speaker 2: and I think it was a good learning experience for them.

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Speaker 2: But I'm a big believer in the Bills, So I

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Speaker 2: went Super Bowl future Buffalo, but I do lean team

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Speaker 2: total over, but there's a lot of varrants for their

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Speaker 2: teams in their division.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Buffalo was a team.

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Speaker 5: I was talking to Evan Silva and Adam Levinton last

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Speaker 5: week on the Established the Run podcast, and I was

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Speaker 5: actually leaning under.

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Speaker 4: But the more I look.

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Speaker 5: At it, it's really hard to bet against this Bills team.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the one concern, if you want to look

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Speaker 5: at it from a numbers perspective is they went thirteen

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Speaker 5: and three last year their Pythagora and win totals, so

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Speaker 5: just their implied win total when you look at their

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Speaker 5: point differential, it was only ten point six, So.

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Speaker 4: They overperformed more than most.

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Speaker 5: Teams in the league, and usually you see regression in

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Speaker 5: that aspect. But I love the roster and Sean McDermott

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Speaker 5: four to oh for the over with the Buffalo Bills

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Speaker 5: in terms of the win total. And on the other side,

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Speaker 5: Bill Belichick two and five for the over without Tom Brady.

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Speaker 5: That includes the year when Castle started pretty much every

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Speaker 5: game except the first one. So Belichick, you know, everyone

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Speaker 5: loves them and kind of just trust that, Yeah, he'll

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Speaker 5: get this thing. Done, and I do love what they

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Speaker 5: did on defense.

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Speaker 4: I think the defense.

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Speaker 5: Could be elite, but there's a lot of question marks

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Speaker 5: on offense. And if you're gonna bet unders on teams,

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Speaker 5: mean you want to look at the quarterback position first

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Speaker 5: because that you know, you don't want to just be

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Speaker 5: betting overs on teams that have a shaky quarterback situation

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Speaker 5: unless you're really sold on the numbers. So I like

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Speaker 5: the Patriots under as well Dolphins.

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Speaker 4: I could go either way. I kind of lean over.

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Speaker 5: I think Brian Flores gets it done, and in the Jets,

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Speaker 5: I just think it's there's a lot of new pieces.

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Speaker 5: I think the defense could be a lot better, but

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Speaker 5: get so many new pieces first year coach, I think

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Speaker 5: they're still a year away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I lean under on all three of those,

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Speaker 2: But if you believe in Tua, you could I would

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Speaker 2: this year. Especially then I think that you would look

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Speaker 2: at Dolphins over. I haven't seen enough yet. The Patriots

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Speaker 2: I could see it going either way. I think I'm

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Speaker 2: slightly under their win total, and then that the Jets

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Speaker 2: I would lean under. And this might be something like

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Speaker 2: with the Bengals last year when I went under. No

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Speaker 2: Fortunately for my bet Barrow got hurt unfortunately for the Bengals,

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Speaker 2: which did help that. But this Jets team looked. I

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Speaker 2: mean all new staff, they're gonna have a new quarterback

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Speaker 2: or rookie quarterback. There's still a lot of holes on

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Speaker 2: this roster. The offensive line. I mean here, offensive line

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Speaker 2: with a rookie quarterback. Does that bring any bells? Right?

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Speaker 2: Last year with Burrow, I am not sold on. Is

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Speaker 2: Davis the number are true? Number one? If he is great,

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Speaker 2: then you have mems and then crowded and it's a

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Speaker 2: pretty good receiving coordinator. You will have a new offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 2: Can he rejuvenate herndon a tight end? So there are

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Speaker 2: some pieces. But the offensive line in a bad offensive

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Speaker 2: line and a rookie quarterback is a disaster. And then

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Speaker 2: on the defensive end, look, Robert Style is gonna come in.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna run as four to three. You hope that

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Speaker 2: Mosley is back in form. At middle linebacker, the defensive

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Speaker 2: line is great. Major questions though at outside linebacker, I mean,

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Speaker 2: who is there, cashman? It's a bad outside outside linebacker.

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Speaker 2: Group linebacker is not that important. But go to the corners.

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Speaker 2: I mean, right now, I don't they're starting corners. They

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Speaker 2: projected what Hall and bless Austin I think are their

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Speaker 2: top two corners. That's I mean, no, we know how

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Speaker 2: important corner is in the NFL. So there's some major

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Speaker 2: holes in the Jets roster. I think that there. If

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Speaker 2: they nail the quarterback position, it's a team moving in

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Speaker 2: the right. But I have no interest in the Jets.

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Speaker 2: I would lean under or nothing there this year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, the cornerback is just a disaster for the Jets.

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Speaker 5: They got they gotta upgrade that in a major way.

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Speaker 5: Let's go to the AFC North.

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Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not save you.

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Speaker 5: We have the Baltimore Ravens atop that division. In terms

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Speaker 5: of the win totals at an even eleven. Remember it's

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Speaker 5: a seventeen games slate Baltimore a little bit juice toward

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Speaker 5: the over.

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Speaker 4: I probably still lean over. I mean this team, really

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Speaker 4: they just.

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Speaker 5: Got to figure it out at wide receiver, you know,

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Speaker 5: get an edge guy or two. But I mean there

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Speaker 5: aren't many holes on this roster outside of that.

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Speaker 4: What do you think of the Ravens?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm actually at ten point nine. I do want

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Speaker 2: to I do think that this is one team that

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Speaker 2: could benefit the most from the draft. It's gonna be

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Speaker 2: hard to project, but they really do need and they

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Speaker 2: could sign like a Justin Houston. Still, they need an

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Speaker 2: edge guy. Right. They lost Jude On to the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: They lost in Gatway. Big fan of losing both by

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Speaker 2: the way, with the amount of money that they got,

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Speaker 2: I think they were smarmers. But you have to address

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Speaker 2: the edge rush, especially when you go up a guy

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Speaker 2: against a guy named Mahomes and the Chiefs one of

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Speaker 2: your main competitors in the AFC. We've seen Mahomes, Taylor, Parkcerus.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens have the blitz in order to generate their pressure.

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Speaker 2: They need to have out of the Bucks win the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Right, they were able to get pressure without blitzing,

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Speaker 2: So they need to get someone on the edge. Can

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Speaker 2: they get a bull Wear or a Sugs two former

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Speaker 2: first round draft picks for the Ravens that were rookies

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Speaker 2: of the year. Can they or can they get a

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Speaker 2: number one receiver? If they can? If they can find

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Speaker 2: a number one in a draft, extremely hard to do,

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Speaker 2: especially given the Ravens track record. And then you have

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Speaker 2: like Watkins as you're three and then you have Brown

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Speaker 2: you know, who can slide into a two instead of

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Speaker 2: a one, Like Okay, now you're starting to work with

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Speaker 2: something you didn't address the interior offensive line. Your secondary

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Speaker 2: is great, which is kind of the staple of that defense.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Tevon Young can return to form in the slot,

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Speaker 2: and then you can have Humphy on the outside. So

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Speaker 2: the defense still should be good, well coached team, good

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Speaker 2: special teams. But I'm at about ten point nine. I

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Speaker 2: could bump that if I think that you know, the

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Speaker 2: their edge situation, it's just so important, or wide receiver

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Speaker 2: improves a bit here, I'm high on the Browns. I

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Speaker 2: project the Browns at ten point four, so I don't

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Speaker 2: have them too far behind the Ravens overall. Hopefully they

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Speaker 2: can improve, you know, speak their special teams, man, But look,

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Speaker 2: this is a team Beckham will be back. It's the

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Speaker 2: second This is the team that last year I thought

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Speaker 2: was gonna struggle a lot more early on. And I

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Speaker 2: know that if you look at well you're probably gonna

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Speaker 2: tell me is if you look at their total wins,

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Speaker 2: what do they have? Eleven wins? And I think that

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Speaker 2: their HIGHAK will probably be like eight ish or so.

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Speaker 2: But they dealt with a ton of injuries. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: they started Robert Jackson that corner in the playoffs, and

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Speaker 2: they still almost when Robert Jackson's their backup gunner. They

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Speaker 2: started Teddy or Thomas in the slot of a couple

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Speaker 2: of times. I mean, so their corner situation was. They

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Speaker 2: had a ton of injuries in the secondary. So I

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Speaker 2: like what they're doing on the defensive side of the

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Speaker 2: ball with Joe Woods is gonna have a lot more

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Speaker 2: pieces to work with. They got Troy L. John Johnson

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Speaker 2: from the Rams. They had a Clowney whatever you think

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Speaker 2: of Clowney, it's gonna help with the depth to go

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Speaker 2: with Garrett McKinley, Malik Jackson in the interior, Williams in delpit.

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Speaker 2: They're now healthy. So look, linebacker is still a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a question. But I like where the defense

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Speaker 2: is and that was the biggest problem with the Browns

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Speaker 2: last year, but a lot of it was injury driven.

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Speaker 2: They also had some injuries on the offensive side of

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Speaker 2: the ball. This is Stefanski's second year. Mayfield made some

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Speaker 2: progression last year that offense in this system, with that

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Speaker 2: offensive line, I think that the Browns are here to stay.

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Speaker 2: So I would lean over with the Browns if anything,

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Speaker 2: and I think that there's some value in the Browns

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Speaker 2: to win the division. I'm low on the Steelers. They

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Speaker 2: have so many holes. Offensive line, corner Roethlisberger is a

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Speaker 2: year older, the running game is a mess, just the

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Speaker 2: play calling. I'm just not a fan of where the

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Speaker 2: Steelers are headed. I think they need to rebuild and

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Speaker 2: the Bengals, it's gonna come down to, is that defense

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Speaker 2: any better? Right? We know Borrow is gonna come back.

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Speaker 2: They need to protect him number one, and Burrow will

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Speaker 2: be They'll be better than what they were when Burrow

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Speaker 2: wasn't in there. But can the defense get any stops?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 2: I mean? They added Reader, which I think can help

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Speaker 2: as Trey Henderson is he gonna really help their edge rush.

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Speaker 2: They have a new corner group, Wayns comes back from injury.

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Speaker 2: They added a Woozier and Hilton Darius Phillips showed some promise.

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Speaker 2: So can their corners get better? Their safeties were good

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Speaker 2: last year, the linebackers were a mess. So how much

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Speaker 2: can that defense improve and how much of a jump

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Speaker 2: will Burrow? I believe in take in year two that

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Speaker 2: offensive line will be something to monitor. They added a

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Speaker 2: couple interesting pieces there, So I'm about on par with

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Speaker 2: the Bengals, lower on the Steelers, higher on the Browns,

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Speaker 2: about right around where the market is on the Ravens.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I really like the Browns as well.

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Speaker 5: It's really hard to find in that team's rotter as well.

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Speaker 5: I mean, and what's underrated about the Browns and why

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Speaker 5: they're at ten wins at bet MGM. I've seen them

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Speaker 5: at nine and a half with the over heavily juiced

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Speaker 5: at some other sites. But they have six picks in

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Speaker 5: the top one hundred and thirty two, they have five

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Speaker 5: in the top one hundred and ten.

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Speaker 4: I mean, this is a team that just.

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Speaker 5: Has a lot of draft capital, not many holes. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: another one of those teams where you look at the

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Speaker 5: you know, the point differential from last year and you

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Speaker 5: get a little worried.

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Speaker 4: But then you look a little deeper.

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Speaker 5: At the roster and I think this team is going

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Speaker 5: to be really good. I like them as a long

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Speaker 5: shot or you know, as a just a bet to

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Speaker 5: win the division as well.

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Speaker 4: The Steelers they're tough.

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Speaker 5: I mean they're eight and a half and Mike tom

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Speaker 5: Win has never had a losing season If they go

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Speaker 5: under eight and a half, that would make them eight

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Speaker 5: to nine.

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Speaker 4: That would be first time I'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: Look at you real close today.

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Speaker 4: See if you highly conditioned, it ready to go, you

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Speaker 4: know what I mean.

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Speaker 2: And if you're not, I'm going to put you in

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Speaker 2: the news.

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Speaker 5: I hesitate to say, you know, just because the Steelers

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Speaker 5: don't look good right now, now bang the under because

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Speaker 5: a lot of this could kind of change. I mean,

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Speaker 5: you know, will they bring back Villin the Wave, will

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Speaker 5: they sign you know, one of the linebackers that they

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Speaker 5: you know, left on the You know, they have a

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Speaker 5: lot of got things that still.

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Speaker 4: Up in the air.

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Speaker 5: I think it's gonna be hard to really judge it

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Speaker 5: till after the draft and the Bengals that I think

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Speaker 5: you still got to go under. I mean, they just

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Speaker 5: don't have enough needle moving talent outside of Burrow.

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Speaker 4: I don't think.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they're a solid team, but you look at

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Speaker 5: Zach Taylor Sickton twenty five and one in his two

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Speaker 5: years as coach. You know, Burrow could improve, but he

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Speaker 5: was two and seven as a starter. I don't think

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Speaker 5: this team is markingly better. You know, Hilton the Lousier,

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Speaker 5: is that really gonna ey Apple. Is that really going

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Speaker 5: to upgrade the the secondary? Ricardo Allen, I don't know.

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Speaker 5: So the Bengals are a team I think I think

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Speaker 5: they'll struggle, especially because this division is just so lowed.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they could go own six against the division

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Speaker 5: if the Steelers, you know, get their shit storted out.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I'm going under on the bank. I wean

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Speaker 5: over on some of the other teams. That's because I'm

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Speaker 5: a little higher on this division in general, because I'm

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Speaker 5: a little lower on the AFC South. I think the

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Speaker 5: mostly have quite a few unders there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I should say I'm at eight and a half

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Speaker 2: with the Steelers, like eight and a half on the dot,

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Speaker 2: so I actually wouldn't lean, and I think the over

351
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Speaker 2: is jew so it's not enough to play the under.

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Speaker 2: So I'm pretty on market there. And yeah, they could

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Speaker 2: add some pieces where I could bump that. I will

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Speaker 2: say one thing with the Ravens that I do like

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Speaker 2: as a fan, And if you're and I bake this

356
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Speaker 2: into my numbers when I'm projecting, I project them for

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Speaker 2: ten point nine wins. But they're tough games are at home,

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Speaker 2: so they if all the fans are back, it's a

359
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Speaker 2: tough venue to play, and they play the Chiefs, Chargers, Packers, Colts, Rams,

360
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Speaker 2: and the Vikings at home on the road, Bears, Broncos, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders.

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Speaker 2: So if the Ravens can hold serve at home outside

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Speaker 2: of the division against these tougher teams on their schedule,

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Speaker 2: that'll go a long way and probably decide their wind

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Speaker 2: total because they do have a lot of winnable non

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Speaker 2: division games on the road.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and Harbaugh eight four and one toward the over

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Speaker 5: in his career as coach at the Ravens, So that's

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Speaker 5: kind of a lot of the deciding factors I look at,

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Speaker 5: especially at this time of year when you know things

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Speaker 5: are still going to move around with the draft. But

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Speaker 5: if you're just kind of looking at which way to

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Speaker 5: wean on somebody's I mean, there are certain coaches that

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Speaker 5: get it done year after year after year, and then

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of optimism and hope for everybody else

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Speaker 5: and not a lot of results. So yeah, I like

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Speaker 5: the Ravens and they could get better and they don't

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Speaker 5: have many holes.

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Speaker 2: And before we.

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396
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 5: to the AFC South. Let's start with the Indianapolis Coats.

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Speaker 5: They're over unders and even ten I think you go under.

398
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Speaker 5: It's no guarantee that Carson Wentz is going to be

399
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Speaker 5: the Carson Wentz of twenty seventeen is really his only

400
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,560
Speaker 5: good year. Yes, he's been a lot better with Frank Reich.

401
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Speaker 5: He's eighteen and eleven with Reich as his offensive coordinator

402
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,880
Speaker 5: seventeen twenty one and one as a starter. One's right left,

403
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Speaker 5: And of course you know the on field play and

404
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 5: metrics back it up. But I mean Wentz really hasn't.

405
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Speaker 5: He's been inconsistent. He's had one really good year and

406
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Speaker 5: has been kind of average the rest of the time.

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Speaker 4: So I got Owen under here. I think this team

408
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 4: has issues in.

409
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Speaker 5: A lot of places to the league, Like wide receiver

410
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 5: could go either way. I mean, you have Michael Pittman,

411
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 5: he could explode, but he's not a quick twitch guy.

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Speaker 4: Hilton's getting older.

413
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Speaker 5: You know, they have you know, they lost, well they

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Speaker 5: haven't resigned justin Houston.

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Speaker 4: They lose Autree.

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Speaker 5: You know, they bring in a cup, they bring in

417
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 5: Sam Tavian and Chris Reid on the O line who

418
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 5: probably aren't going to improve that in any way. You know,

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00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 5: I still have some good pieces there, but just not

420
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Speaker 5: enough for me to go over with this Coast team.

421
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 5: I think they may not be quite as good as

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Speaker 5: as some people expect. And they only have three picks

423
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,880
Speaker 5: in the first four rounds of the draft as well,

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00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,919
Speaker 5: So not a team that's necessarily going to get a

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Speaker 5: lot better. And Carson Wentz, you know, could just give

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Speaker 5: them a really low floor.

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Speaker 2: I think this division is really tough. I probably I won't.

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Speaker 2: I can almost guarantee I won't better win total for

429
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Speaker 2: this division because it's going to come down to the

430
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 2: cults to be the hardest thing for me to project,

431
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: because which Wentz? Do you get? Right? Wentz has shown

432
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Speaker 2: flashes in the past. He was a disaster last year.

433
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Speaker 2: Does the change of scenery is that all he needed?

434
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Speaker 2: He's probably gonna be somewhere in between. Right, one of

435
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 2: the worst quarterbacks in the league last year, and then

436
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 2: someone who people were saying is a top five, top

437
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 2: ten quarterback a couple of years ago. It's gonna be

438
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 2: somewhere in between. Where is that? That'll probably determine how

439
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 2: good or bad the Colts are this year. But they

440
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 2: do have holes. They're worse than last year. I mean

441
00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 2: you said it. They lost their they lost all and

442
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 2: they lost Houston. Who's their head rush right now? They

443
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 2: don't have an ed rush and they've tried the draft

444
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 2: ed rush in the past. It hasn't really worked out.

445
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,199
Speaker 2: Hasn't worked out since what matthis and Freemie and two,

446
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,879
Speaker 2: three or four whenever they drafted those guys in the

447
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,159
Speaker 2: first round. They also have a whole tackle now with

448
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: Sam Tevy. I think is the projective tackle stands overtired.

449
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 5: Eighty nine tackles in pro football focuses great with heavy Yeah.

450
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 2: So that's not great their corner situation. I still have

451
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 2: questions about it's a well coached team again that but

452
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 2: where is is what if Wentz elevates his game to

453
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 2: peak that we saw and yeah, they could be close

454
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 2: to as good as last year, But remember this is

455
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 2: a team last year now gretit. They were really close

456
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 2: in Buffalo to winning that game. But last year they

457
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 2: finished with I think every one of the playoffs had

458
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,479
Speaker 2: eleven wins. In the FT they finished with eleven wins

459
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 2: and their Pithak wins were eight and they had the

460
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: easiest schedule in the league. They had a lot go

461
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 2: their way. I still have a lot of questions about

462
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 2: their team. But like I look at the Texans, the

463
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 2: Texans roster is as a dumpster fire.

464
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: Shield your eyes. This team is officially trash.

465
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 2: And I don't think Watson's gonna play or at least

466
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 2: start the year. So it's like Tyrod Taylor and then

467
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 2: maybe they're the Lions like they're they're basically the Lions.

468
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 2: They're the new Browns. The Texas are the new Browns.

469
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 2: I think, by the way, I think I tweeted out

470
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 2: a couple months ago, like that's the new organization. That

471
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 2: is just a dumpster fire. They're gonna suck for a

472
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: long time. Here's a fun exercise when you're out this weekend.

473
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 2: Just sit around and say tell me you're tell me

474
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: as many players as you can name on the Texans

475
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 2: right now. And like, outside of Watson, so uh, they

476
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 2: and some of their offseason moves were very curious as always.

477
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 2: So it's it's not Bill O'Brien wasn't the only problem there.

478
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: But so like what's gonna happen with Watson? Deshaun Watson

479
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: gives them a fighting chance in games without him, Oh

480
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 2: my god. So but projecting that, who knows projecting how

481
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,679
Speaker 2: good Wentz is gonna be. That's tough. And then Jacksonville's

482
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 2: gonna have a rookie quarterback. So Tennessee has holes to

483
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: a lot of holes too. They still I mean, look

484
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 2: their offensive line, their drust, they lost a lot of

485
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: their weapons. I've questioned major questions about that defense. So

486
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,360
Speaker 2: This is the division I want no part of anybody,

487
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: So I can't pick one because it's gonna come down

488
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 2: to some of these things that I'm having trouble projecting.

489
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,719
Speaker 2: Going back to real quick to close it out, going

490
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:29,480
Speaker 2: back to Miami. One of the reasons I can't play

491
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 2: their under even though I'm lower on Tua. They play

492
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 2: the Texans. Is Watson going to be there? They play

493
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: the Colts. How good is Wentz going to be? We

494
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 2: already talked about the Patriots. How good are they gonna

495
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 2: be with their additions? They play the Saints. We're gonna

496
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: get to them. But with Winston they play the Jags.

497
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 2: Rookie quarterback, they play the Panthers. Look, and then you

498
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 2: have the Jets with a rookie quarterback. So their schedule

499
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 2: is just full of all the teams that you know

500
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 2: with quarterback uncertainty and high variance, which is one of

501
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: the reasons I'm avoiding the Dolphins. Yeah, this is a division.

502
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 2: I'm low on all these teams. I think you're gonna

503
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: agree with me, so I want no part of them.

504
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 2: Tough teams to protect for various reasons.

505
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, And like I said, you know, I did the

506
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 5: exercise I ended up making a pick on all thirty two.

507
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 4: I went under on all four of these teams. I

508
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 4: think this division is overvalued.

509
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 5: First of all at the top because and we see

510
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 5: this from time to time, but you have Detectives and

511
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 5: they're gonna play you know, the Tech, Titans and Colts

512
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 5: are gonna play them twice. And you also have the Jaguars,

513
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 5: which who were won and fifteen last year. And I

514
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 5: think what happens is, you know those factor into these

515
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 5: very early projections and win totals, these numbers are inflated

516
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 5: by like half a win to a win for each

517
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 5: for the teams at the top, I mean, outside of

518
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 5: playing Jacksonville and Houston four times, the Coats played the Buck,

519
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 5: the Ram, Siadle, New England, Baltimore, Buffalo, San France, at

520
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 5: you know, Miami and Arizona on the road aren't easy either,

521
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 5: So I mean, you know they have those four kind

522
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 5: of maybe and then Vegas and the Jets, but getting

523
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 5: over ten is going to be tough. I think the

524
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 5: Titans are another team that I would go under. The

525
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 5: nine and a half, even juiced up because they lost

526
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 5: Arthur Smith. We don't know if the offense is going

527
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: to be as good period. They lost Corey Davis, who

528
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 5: was a top ten wide receiver in terms of yards

529
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 5: per route last season. They lose John neu Smith, so

530
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 5: they need wide receiver more than ever. Josh Reynolds is,

531
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 5: you know, a bolow average player in the scheme of things.

532
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 5: You know, now they don't have those two tight ends

533
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 5: they kind of rely on in the past game. They

534
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 5: even lost their slot receiver Humphrees, Denoris Jenkins, Kevin Johnson.

535
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 4: Is that really going to fix the secondary? Maybe?

536
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 5: But Malcolm Butler and Desmond King and Dori Jackson and

537
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 5: you know, may have maybe turn.

538
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 4: Out better than those guys.

539
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, it's not a guarantee that those

540
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 5: guys help it. It's not a guarantee that Bud Dupree,

541
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 5: who they spent a lot of money on at on

542
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 5: the edge, is a difference make. I mean, he's coming

543
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 5: off an injury, he's kind of been up and down,

544
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 5: and you know, I've got a lot of help with

545
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 5: that Steelers defense just being so strong all over.

546
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 4: Totally different situation here.

547
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 5: So I mean, I like that they got Autrey, but

548
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 5: there's just a lot of uncertainty with this team. Well,

549
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 5: and they're very and one of the things with this

550
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 5: seventeen game schedule it you know, it makes every you know,

551
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 5: every bit of depth a little bit more important. It

552
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 5: makes you know, these top heavy teams a little more fragile.

553
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,719
Speaker 5: And Derrick Henry's carried the ball so much over these

554
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 5: past few years. You know, we saw it with Christian McCaffrey.

555
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 5: You know, it happens to every running back at some point.

556
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 5: And if they if anything happens to Henry A. J.

557
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 5: Brown who struggled with injuries from you know, or played

558
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 5: through something from time to time.

559
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 4: I mean, this is just the very fragile teams.

560
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 5: I gotta go under them. And then Jacksonville. I mean,

561
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 5: these new college coaches, they tend to improve their teams

562
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 5: by about seventeen percent, you know, over the last couple decades.

563
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 5: But this is a one and fifteen team, you know,

564
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 5: going from one to seven even in the seventeen game schedule,

565
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 5: that's gonna be tough. And then the text and they

566
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 5: really they lost JJ Watt Buller and maybe Deshaun Watson

567
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 5: and you know, Ann McKinney and Nick Martin like pretty

568
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 5: much all their good players or decent players, and they

569
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 5: just added a whole bunch of below average talent. I mean,

570
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 5: you can see all the names I list them out

571
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 5: on on my right up. But it's just ridiculous. How

572
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 5: many like kind of bottom tier you know, twenty fifth

573
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 5: percent of type players they added.

574
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm not a fan of this division at all.

575
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Texans, it's like I've been screaming

576
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 2: for them. They added a good cover guys to scheme

577
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 2: differently on defense, generate some pressure stock on so faces.

578
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 2: They bring in love Smith, the defensive Coordinator's a dinosaur.

579
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 2: He's gonna run. He's gonna run four to three cover

580
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 2: two base ninety percent of the time. I mean, it's

581
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 2: a disaster. What's going on in Houston. All these teams

582
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 2: that I'm lower on would leave me to want to

583
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 2: bet the over with Jacksonville. But it's look, they're I

584
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: think they were. Their pithag wins are like four. They

585
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: were in a lot of games, the only one one.

586
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 2: How much can you trust Lawrence? It's tough to trust

587
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback, and I just want no part of

588
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: this division that to Titans. Look, it's can Dupre and

589
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 2: Autry generate a ton of pressure? I don't trust their

590
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 2: their cover guys. That's been the problem with their defense

591
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: is they've had injuries in the secondary, but they haven't

592
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 2: been able to generate any pressure. And we know once

593
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 2: you can generate pressure. Nookless nine of the top nine

594
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: of the bottom ten teams in pressure. It didn't make

595
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Washington they get all these corners, they they

596
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: grate out elite all of a sudden. Why well, the

597
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 2: defensive line, it's pressure in two seconds can solve a

598
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 2: lot of issues. But I'm not a buyer in the

599
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: Tennessee defense and US a lot on the offense. So yeah,

600
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 2: pass pass, pass unders or nothing across the board. You

601
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 2: don't want to bet under on all four teas division,

602
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: but uh I would. I would lean that.

603
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 4: Way, yeah, I mean like yeah, like, and I will

604
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 4: give the market props.

605
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 5: I think the win totals market, at least for this

606
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 5: point in time is pretty sharp as of now. I'm

607
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 5: usually looking to bang a lot of unders, especially on the.

608
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 4: Higher win totals.

609
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 5: But outside of you know, just kind of going under

610
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 5: and all four in the AFC South, a lot of

611
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 5: the teams that are into double digits, and granted they

612
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 5: added a game, so that's seventeen, but are kind of

613
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 5: over teams and you know, you just have to look

614
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 5: at the track record or the coaches and whatnot. And

615
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:29,719
Speaker 5: speaking of which, Kansas City over under twelve wins, I mean,

616
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 5: Andy Reid hasn't gone under yet.

617
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 3: Andy, you had a cheeseburger in celebration of the AFC

618
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: Championship game?

619
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 5: Is that true?

620
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: I did good one just one pamboos thick.

621
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 4: You're not gonna bet the under on Kansas City, are you?

622
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: Yeah? Kansas City. My projection is they have questions on

623
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 2: the offensive line. Their defense is what it is, right.

624
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 2: We know that they're going to struggle at times, but

625
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 2: they're gonna be well schemed. We know they have mahomes.

626
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 2: They did lose Watkins. It's just they're gonna be a

627
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: player in the playfs. I haven't projected at twelve point

628
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: oh four wins, so like and they so I think

629
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 2: that they're a little war worse than last year with

630
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 2: some of the questions on the offensive line. So we'll

631
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: see how they addressed that in the draft or if

632
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: you know, and they brought in some guys that I

633
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: think could be productive. And you don't need the most

634
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: outstanding offensive line, so I actually agreed with some of

635
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: the moves that they made, like you don't need to

636
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: overpay offensive line with Patrick Mahomes right where it really

637
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 2: did shows when you play like a defense that he's

638
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 2: getting elite pressure in the Super Bowl and that was

639
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: the difference. You played one or two of those teams

640
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 2: a year, and Mahomes can make up for a lot

641
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 2: of that. But I had the chief right around twelve.

642
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 2: It feels like they win twelve games every year. Last

643
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: year they won. Did they win fourteen last year? But

644
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 2: they got They won a couple of close games that

645
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: could have easily lost. I think that their five fag

646
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: wins and some of their expected when we were closer

647
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 2: to eleven. So I think that this team look. I

648
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: think the Raiders are wor I think the Chargers will

649
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 2: be improved. From a coaching perspective. It's Herbert's second year.

650
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 2: Can he play as well as he did last year?

651
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 2: That's a question I think we can. We can ponder

652
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 2: the Broncos. I am high on so I'm a little

653
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: lower on the Raiders. The Chargers about market project them

654
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 2: right around nine wins because they still do have holes.

655
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: I like the signing Lindsley at center, but their secondary

656
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 2: and I think it Derwin James back is not as

657
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 2: good a defense. Major questions about their defense. I think

658
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: the coaching, though, just the coaching in general can win

659
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: them a games that they lost last year. So that's

660
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 2: something to keep an eye on late game situations. Anthony

661
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 2: Lynn has gone. But the Broncos I'm really high on,

662
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: and I wanted tobate this with you because I know

663
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: you're gonna tell me I'm crazy because it's Drew Locke

664
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 2: is the quarterback. But I really like this Broncos team.

665
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 2: It's one of my favorite overs. I project them at

666
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: eight four and I will pay juice up to like

667
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five year my win totals that I

668
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 2: gate out in nov Another arcle this year, I went

669
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 2: four to zho and two. Two of those pushes I

670
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 2: got because I well, I chose to pay the higher juice.

671
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,239
Speaker 2: One of the wins I got because the same, I'll

672
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 2: p have to like minus one thirty five. If I

673
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 2: have the choice right, you can look at one book

674
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: and you have over seven plus one hundred or over

675
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 2: six and a half minus one thirty five, I'll go

676
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 2: over six minus one thirty five, six and a half

677
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five every time. So but the Broncos

678
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 2: I love. I'm at eight to four. I'll go over

679
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 2: seven heavily juiced. And I think that this team is

680
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 2: the twenty eighteen Chicago Bears, and they had a lot

681
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 2: of guys from that team. I mean, look, Fangio's there

682
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: in his third year, but he will now have Calahan

683
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 2: and Fuller who were in that secondary, So I think

684
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 2: that they upgraded the secondary. Bringing back Jackson and Simmons

685
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: at safety is huge. They're gonna get Chubb and Miller

686
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 2: back healthy together off the edge. I love that their

687
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: defense had so many injuries last year, so many, and

688
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: they still played respectable. It allowed guys like Draymond Jones

689
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: but Leak Reid to get playing time and they were productive.

690
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 2: So I think they're gonna be a lot deeper. They

691
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 2: also signed Darby at corner. I'm I think his numbers

692
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: were a little inflated last year, but he's better than

693
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 2: what they were putting out there last year. So I

694
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: think the defense is a top five unit in the NFL,

695
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: and that twenty eighteen Bears team dominant, defense dominant, and

696
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 2: you can compare a lot of the same pieces to

697
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: this team, and they had Mitch Trubisky as the quarterback.

698
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: This year it's Drew Locke. I don't know if the

699
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 2: Brockles are going to trade up or get somebody else,

700
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 2: but I'm assuming they're going with Drew Locke. Tons of

701
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: injuries on the offense as side as well. Right, they

702
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 2: are gonna get someting back Pro Bowl caliber receiver. You

703
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 2: had Hamler, can he stay healthy? But Judy emerged and

704
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 2: st Patrick as a receiver too, So I like their

705
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: weapons with Fan are Juwan James Kenny be productive at

706
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 2: right tackle if he is. Garret Bolds emerged as an

707
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 2: All Pro left tackle, Cushion Bury. Their center was awful

708
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 2: last year, but he was a rookie played every snap.

709
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 2: You expect some development there. So I think the offensive

710
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 2: line will be better, especially if James can play even

711
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 2: half the games, so the pieces will be better for Locke.

712
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 2: I think the defense is going to dominate. You get

713
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 2: nine home games in Denver, which the highest home field

714
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 2: for the best home field advantage in the NFL due

715
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 2: to the altitude. The game that they added was the Lions,

716
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 2: so it's the first time in four years that they

717
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 2: haven't changed offensive coordinators. A lot to like about this

718
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 2: Denver team except the quarterback, so that could always be

719
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 2: the truck card and then I'll have to duck my

720
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 2: head and walk away. But Denver is one of my

721
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 2: favorite win totals. That's the over. Then I'll give out

722
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 2: on the show Denver over seven juice.

723
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean last year Denver was kind of a

724
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 5: trendy pick. I was way off Denver. They were one

725
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 5: of my favorite unders. I'm actually with you this year.

726
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 4: I love Denver's over as well.

727
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 5: They're one of the few teams kind of in that

728
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 5: mid tier that I think has a really good case

729
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 5: for going over.

730
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 4: You kind of said it.

731
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 5: They don't have many holes on their roster outside of

732
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 5: that quarterback position. But let's remember they do have the

733
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 5: ninth pick in the draft. You know, they do have

734
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 5: a bunch of of you know, weight round picks. Maybe

735
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 5: they prayed, and they really don't have holes outside of

736
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 5: that and Cushion Berry, who they could also upgrade on

737
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 5: in the draft or free agency if they really feel like,

738
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 5: you know, it's gonna be it's gonna be a problem

739
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 5: going forward.

740
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 4: So I mean, the defense is just man to a man,

741
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 4: I mean eight is a week you know where you

742
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 4: just look every position.

743
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 5: They have guys that can play every down if they need,

744
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 5: you know, maybe they need some a little bit of

745
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 5: like they could use the extra safety, you know. I

746
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,319
Speaker 5: think Jackson and Simmons played almost every snap last year.

747
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, Jackson and Simmons played every snap. Jackson's

748
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 5: thirty three. So but it's kind of nitpicking them. And

749
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 5: I think Juwan James is huge. You're really gonna have

750
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 5: four out of five offensive linemen that are you know,

751
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 5: above average. Problem as long as James can can return

752
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 5: to the level he's been at. So I think Locke

753
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 5: is gonna have a completely different situation, great explosive fill

754
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 5: position players.

755
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 4: Entering year two. You mentioned it.

756
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 5: They have the same offensive coordinator. So yeah, this is

757
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 5: the one team. I think a lot of these are

758
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 5: inflated in this mid tier. You know, it's a lot

759
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 5: of selling on this hope and optimism.

760
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 4: But I think Denver has a real case. And you

761
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 4: look at the schedule, I mean they.

762
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 5: Play a lot of winnable games at home. First of all,

763
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 5: Chargers in Vegas are winnable. I think the Bronco is

764
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 5: the second most talented team in this division. I think

765
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 5: the Chargers got a lot of holes on defense. They

766
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 5: lost a lot of talent Heerman, Hayward and just to

767
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 5: hope with a bunch of guys. But play those teams

768
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 5: four times, Philly, Cincinnati, Jets, and Detroit at home, Jacksonville,

769
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 5: the Giants, Pittsburgh, Dallas on the road. Those teams don't

770
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 5: really scare me either. So yeah, this Denver team is

771
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 5: the team I'm looking at in this division too. I

772
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 5: think the Raiders are under team for me. I think

773
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 5: they made a lot of moves in free agency and

774
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 5: got worse, and they lost you know, a guy like

775
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 5: Nelson Aguilar, who you don't think much of, but he

776
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 5: was one of the better receivers in the league last year.

777
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 5: You know, even though he's gonna be due for regression

778
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 5: in terms of his numbers, I don't think the Raiders

779
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 5: necessarily are going to replace what he brought to the table,

780
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 5: even with you know, Brown and Sneed and they got

781
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 5: all these young guys still, but the O line got worse.

782
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 5: They didn't really need Kenyan Drake and Goatway has been

783
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 5: declining in terms of his performance. He's still above average,

784
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 5: but you know, he's kind of shaky. The safety position

785
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 5: is still shaky, you know, Carl Joseph. They added He's

786
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 5: one of the worst safety So I can't see it.

787
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 5: With the Raiders and then the Chargers, I just think

788
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 5: they have way too many holes on defense. I think

789
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 5: they'll be a shootout team, but I'm not betting on

790
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 5: a shoot what I expect to be a shootout team

791
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 5: to win ten games. I think eight and nine is

792
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 5: a lot more likely for the Chargers than ten in seven.

793
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. Also, Denver, you get Glasgow, one of their guards

794
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 2: who I like, he was hurt all last year, miss games,

795
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: dealt with injuries, dealt with COVID, so that's basically you're

796
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 2: getting him fully healthy back in James offensive line is

797
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot better. The hope with the Raiders

798
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 2: as Gus Bradley can help the defense just scheme wise,

799
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: because they're really lacking in talent. But I'm not buying

800
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 2: it this year. And yeah, I mean if the Chargers look,

801
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 2: if Herbert has any decline in his sophomore year or

802
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: like a sophomore slump, they're gonna be in trouble because

803
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 2: they're gonna need to score. I completely agree with you.

804
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 2: I'm right on market with the Chiefs. They'll probably win

805
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 2: this division. They'll probably win twelve games. The win total

806
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 2: boring injuries, the win total probably come down to, like

807
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: the last week, do they sit anybody? Do they not?

808
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 2: I think they'll be right around twelve. I think the

809
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,399
Speaker 2: Broncos will going to the playoffs. I think they're winning

810
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 2: ten games, and you want to take a flyer. I

811
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: don't hate sixty to one. I think that they're the

812
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen Bears with Mitch Trubisky with time downfield, Watson

813
00:38:55,760 --> 00:39:02,399
Speaker 2: Robinson intercepted by sept Kiel, a gun by Priffin Man

814
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 2: It's intercepted over the middle midche gets caught trying to

815
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 2: force something in there. Twenty eight Bears with twelve twelve

816
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: and four, lost three of their four games by a

817
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 2: field goal or less. We're bouncing the playoffs, literally bounced

818
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 2: on a double point. But I think Denver's going to

819
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Lot to like about this team this year.

820
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't disagree, and that's that's a surprise for me.

821
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 5: I'm usually down on Denver, but man, I really loved

822
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 5: the kind him in He didn't argue back with me.

823
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 4: I mean, I thought I was going to be taking

824
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 4: Broncos under.

825
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 5: I mean I was ready to do it, and then

826
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 5: you know, I kind of dove in and looked at

827
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 5: the schedule, looked at the roster, and I mean there's

828
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 5: there's just there's a lot more upside than downside, and

829
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 5: seven and a half is not hard to clear, especially

830
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 5: in a division where yeah, you're playing the Chiefs, but

831
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 5: you're playing a bunch of you know, Raiders and Chargers

832
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 5: who I think have left town on a roster.

833
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, and you met you mentioned depth. I think

834
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 2: this was really even more orton in a seventeen game

835
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 2: with an extra game. The Broncos injury luck is gonna

836
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: you can't really predict it. The Broncos had so many

837
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:11,479
Speaker 2: injuries last year, so your regression maybe they you would

838
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: think that maybe this year they don't have as many injuries.

839
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 2: But the thing that I met this before, they got

840
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 2: a lot of experience from other guys last year who

841
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 2: out of play, and I think that that's going to

842
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 2: help their overall depth, which I think this helps this year.

843
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,320
Speaker 2: Drew Locke season, Baby.

844
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's just a lot more upside to downside with

845
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 5: the Broncos this year and Now a word from our

846
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00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 3: in this episode description to get started. Must be twenty

866
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 3: one or older and physically located in Michigan, New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana,

867
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 3: West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada. For Pennsylvania, please gamble responsibly.

868
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 3: Gambling problem called one eight hundred and five two to

869
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 3: two forty seven hundred in Colorado with Nevata, one eight

870
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 3: hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, in West Virginia, one

871
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 3: eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana, one eight

872
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 3: hundred and two seven zero seven to one one seven

873
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 3: in Michigan, one eight hundred and eight nine nine seven

874
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 3: eight nine in Tennessee, one eight hundred bets off in

875
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 3: Iowa or one eight eight five Virginia. That's not available

876
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 3: in the data. Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

877
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 4: Let's go to NFC.

878
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 5: We have the Dallas Cowboys that top the NFC East

879
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 5: nine and a half juice toward the under. I lean

880
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 5: under for Dallas. I mean, listen, dak is going to

881
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 5: be back. Yes, he played well, but I still don't

882
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 5: think the defense is fifth.

883
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: Uh.

884
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 5: You know they did add Kean O'Neil kz two Falcon safeties,

885
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 5: which not exactly the greatest thing in the world.

886
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:39,240
Speaker 4: Jayron curse. You know the old lines getting older.

887
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 5: They had terrible injury luck, but I don't think the

888
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 5: old line is going to be quite as good.

889
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 4: You saw some drop off from Zeke.

890
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 5: I mean, I just don't think this team, at least

891
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 5: as it stans, has enough to warrant betting them to

892
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 5: get to double digit wins. You know, we saw the

893
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 5: NFC East really stink it up last year. This you know,

894
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 5: this could be another situation where there's just and I right,

895
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 5: the Washington football team. I think that's the team clearly

896
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 5: if you want an over in this divisions, that's the

897
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 5: number one team. I lean over at the Eagles as well.

898
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 5: I think six and a half is a little too short.

899
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,440
Speaker 5: The Giants maybe trendy to some people, but I mean

900
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 5: they made a lot of improvement to the roster, but

901
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 5: I still thine weaknesses at quarterback, offensive line, offensive coordinator.

902
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 5: Not a team I want to be betting the over on.

903
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 5: I think they'll be a competitive team, probably will coach,

904
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 5: but just not enough for me at the offensive line

905
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 5: and then not enough at quarterback to overcome it for

906
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 5: me to bet the Giants. So I really like Washington.

907
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 5: I think Washington should be favored to win this division.

908
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 5: I think their defense is already a week I think

909
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 5: they have a lot of flexibility now in the draft.

910
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 5: They have four picks in the top eighty two and

911
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 5: not really many holes on a roster. I mean the

912
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 5: holes I consider are like it's packed, you know, quarterback

913
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 5: more so for the future. You know, Fitzpatrick I think

914
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 5: is an upgrade on what they had last year.

915
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: Fits magic magic.

916
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 4: Wide receiver.

917
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 5: They could still use another one, I think, but you know,

918
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 5: they again upgraded on last year with Samuel and Humphreys

919
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 5: tight end. Another thing for the future, just because Logan Thomas,

920
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 5: I mean he's had one good year already about the

921
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 5: turn thirty, so you know, just a lot of kind

922
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 5: of luxury needs for the Washington football team. But another

923
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,800
Speaker 5: team I just think kind of like the Broncos. Just

924
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 5: elite defense, undervalued on offense. I think they should be

925
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 5: the favorite. So I'm going Cowboys under Washington over Giants

926
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 5: under Eagles over.

927
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm a big fan of the Philly Hires, specifically

928
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator Gannon. Who you know, Brandon Stalley got

929
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: all of the press for what he did with the

930
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: Rams defense, and rightfully so, but there's word on the

931
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 2: street that he was taught a lot of what he

932
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 2: was taught came from Gannon. But so I think the

933
00:44:57,560 --> 00:44:59,239
Speaker 2: long term that Eagles are in good ship. But they

934
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 2: still have a tough of holes on this roster. Still

935
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 2: question their corner back. Look at their corners. I mean,

936
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 2: who are their corners. Matt Maddox is either number two,

937
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 2: Darius Slay is not getting any younger. I don't even

938
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 2: know their number three? Is they? I mean they need

939
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 2: corner how bad their offensive line isn't getting any younger

940
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: as well? Wide receiver is my fully bought in on

941
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts, Yet I don't. I mean, this roster still

942
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: has too many holes. I project them at seven, so

943
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 2: I'm right on market with the Eagles. Washington, I'm actually

944
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,839
Speaker 2: right around eight. So I'm actually a little lower than

945
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 2: the market. I know why people love them. I love

946
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: the defense, I love the signing of Samuel. I'm a

947
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 2: big fan of Gibson. Is can Fitzpatrick maintain a high

948
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 2: level of play for an entire year as the starter?

949
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 2: That's the main question that I have. Dallas, I think

950
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 2: it comes down to look Dallas kind of reminds me

951
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: of the Chargers in a way. There gonna have to

952
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 2: win shootouts. They have questions on the defense. If they

953
00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 2: get like a certain to match with Diggs. I'm a

954
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 2: believer of Diggs. They're gonna be really young at corner,

955
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 2: but how much can that help them? You know, they

956
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 2: have a new defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. What can he

957
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 2: do there that Mike Nolan obviously couldn't get done? So

958
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: can their defense improve like they were crushed by Injrews

959
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 2: last year? And Ken Collins and Smith stay healthy at

960
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 2: the tackle positions if you get and if so, you

961
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: have two of the best tackles in the NFL. With

962
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 2: dak back and then a lot of weapons, they're gonna score.

963
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 2: They're gonna score on most teams, and then it's okay,

964
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,720
Speaker 2: how much is the defense improved? Yeah, because like Diggs,

965
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: Lewis and Brown, they look at their corners. If they

966
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 2: ad certain it gets a little more interesting. So I

967
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,760
Speaker 2: think that the Cowboys are actually getting a little disrespected

968
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 2: in the market. But I want to see what they

969
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 2: do at corner, and I think a lot of it

970
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 2: will come down to tackle help. I have them projected

971
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 2: at nine to six, so you can get a juiced

972
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 2: over nine. I would lean that way, but it's not

973
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 2: something I'm running to that. And then in regards to

974
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 2: the Giants, I actually like the moves that they made.

975
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 2: They're getting crushed, but I think that they needed to

976
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 2: get a guy like Galladay, and I love the signing

977
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 2: of Dori Jackson. I don't care if they gave him

978
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 2: what thirteen million this year in twenty six million guaranteed

979
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 2: and people were killing him for the contract. I think

980
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 2: he's elite, went healthy. Now, why was he never back?

981
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 2: And there's reports that like his work ethic and during

982
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 2: his injury and he wasn't that dedicated and now he

983
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 2: just got a contract. Is that I don't know. I've

984
00:47:36,120 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: seen him play at an elite level, win healthy. I

985
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: can't project injuries, but I think that significantly helps their secondary.

986
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 2: Love their defensive line. The offensive line is the big question.

987
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:51,239
Speaker 2: How much of a jump can they take in year too.

988
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 2: They had a lot of young guys playing last last

989
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: year and they weren't great. They didn't perform well, but

990
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 2: they were thrown into the fire. You get a solder back,

991
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 2: what can he do, especially from like a in leadership perspective,

992
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 2: I think that he might end up being like the

993
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 2: swing tackle. So I actually like some of the things

994
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 2: that Giants did, But I'm pretty on market with their projections.

995
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 2: I think it's a high upside team because if the

996
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 2: offensive line can come together, if Dori Jackson is elite

997
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 2: at corner and healthy all year, seems really interesting. Could

998
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,359
Speaker 2: easily win the division. But I'm about on market. There

999
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: not a ton of interest in the NFC East, and

1000
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 2: it'll be interesting to watch what they do in the draft.

1001
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 5: Hello Detroit, let's go to the NFC North. We have

1002
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 5: the Green Bay Packers. Kind and a half used to

1003
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 5: the over matt Le floor has led the Packers to

1004
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 5: back to back thirteen and three records. Hard to you know,

1005
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 5: bet against them, But at the same time, you know,

1006
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 5: I get why some people maybe would stay away. You know,

1007
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 5: they really have nothing to speak of in terms of

1008
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 5: off season editions. You know, they're gonna do it through

1009
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 5: the draft, as they tend to do. But you know,

1010
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 5: last year was kind of a shaky draft, so you know,

1011
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 5: they do have some draft capital here, five picks in

1012
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 5: the top one hundred and forty two this year, but

1013
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 5: it's what do they do with them, because they didn't

1014
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 5: really add anything. They they lost Corey Linsley, the top

1015
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 5: center in terms of PFF grades. Besides that, you know

1016
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 5: they resigned some of their you know Aaron Jones, which

1017
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 5: you know could argue either way, but he's he's been

1018
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 5: extremely productive and inefficient. So I mean, I don't have

1019
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 5: too much on the Packers I think. I mean, I

1020
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:34,799
Speaker 5: don't know which way would you go on on Green Bay?

1021
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:37,839
Speaker 5: Here I lean over just because Aaron Rodgers still playing.

1022
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 5: We kind of the same team it's been.

1023
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 4: But you know, what are your thoughts.

1024
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 2: I projected what's their winter at eleven? I'm at like

1025
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 2: ten eight, ten to nine. I would have loved him

1026
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: to get like it's another wide receiver or another corner,

1027
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 2: and they re signed King. That was kind of their

1028
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 2: weakness in the really would cause their downfall the NFC

1029
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 2: Championship game. The offensive line, there are some questions, right

1030
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 2: they lost Lindsley and Bachtiari. When is he going to

1031
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 2: be back? Right? He towards ACL late in the season,

1032
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 2: so I don't think he's going to be one hundred

1033
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,359
Speaker 2: percent healthy by week one. He might be. I mean,

1034
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 2: the ACLS now you can you might be able to

1035
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 2: get back, but it's something to monitor. The new defensive coordinator,

1036
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 2: Joe Barret. I think he can help with the linebackers

1037
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 2: in the run defense. Some be interesting to see what

1038
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 2: they do on that side of the ball. Offensively, Can

1039
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: they just my question is can they just be as

1040
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 2: elite as they were last year? They were so Aaron

1041
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 2: Rodgers was so good. I mean, the numbers are silly,

1042
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:37,040
Speaker 2: and it was after everyone was saying Aaron Rodgers on

1043
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 2: the decline. So it's very difficult to project for me.

1044
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 2: These quarterbacks like Brady and r like are they It's

1045
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 2: just they're just assumed that they're going to maintain an

1046
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 2: elite level forever now. And you know, declines aren't just

1047
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:56,400
Speaker 2: for quarterbacks. For Hall of Fame quarterbacks aren't elite, elite.

1048
00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 2: You're Mitched Trubisky right, It's it's it'll be gradual. So

1049
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 2: projecting that, can they maintain Can they be as good

1050
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:06,919
Speaker 2: offensively as they were last year? If they are, they'll

1051
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 2: probably go over because look at their division. I know

1052
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 2: they have nine road games, but the Lions are a

1053
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 2: dumpster five Lions favored under you throw that out there.

1054
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 2: Try I project the Lions. I project them three point eight.

1055
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 2: I'm surprised I was that high. They might win one

1056
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 2: game and you know. I hate Jared Goff though, so

1057
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 2: that goes into it. He's their quarterback. But who's on

1058
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 2: this roster? What?

1059
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 5: What?

1060
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 2: What is this roster? And it's gonna be like they

1061
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 2: want to run it with their new and I don't

1062
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 2: even like any of their hires, their coaching HighRes. They

1063
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:40,919
Speaker 2: want to run the ball. I guess their offensive line

1064
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 2: is like, Okay, I guess, show me one thing you

1065
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 2: like about the Lions roster. Go you can't. It's a dumpster.

1066
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 2: It's a Dumpsterfy the Bear, I mean, it's it's bad

1067
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 2: the Bears. I lean under there again this year. I

1068
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 2: would rather have Mitch tru Bisky than any dolt. At

1069
00:51:56,680 --> 00:52:00,560
Speaker 2: least Mit your bisky can run around. There's the off line.

1070
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 2: It can be Okay. Montgomery has shown that he can

1071
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 2: play last year, and you did bring Alan Robinson back,

1072
00:52:06,280 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 2: but I have other questions about their other weapons. The

1073
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,160
Speaker 2: play calling and the defense is going to be worse

1074
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 2: than last year. You replaced Fuller with true Font, who

1075
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 2: was I think greted one hundred and twenty out of

1076
00:52:17,640 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty one corners per PFF last year.

1077
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 2: Everyone is getting older on that side of the ball.

1078
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 2: I know Eddie Goleman coming back will help, but you

1079
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 2: know Ma's not getting any younger. Trevathon's lows a step.

1080
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:32,720
Speaker 2: They have questions at the other safety spot next to Jackson.

1081
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:36,160
Speaker 2: So this defense kd Jalen Johnson emerges at number one.

1082
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 2: And by the way, you have major injury questions. True,

1083
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 2: font and Johnson are your top two corners. First of all,

1084
00:52:40,480 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 2: that's not great. Second of all, they have a lot

1085
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 2: of injuries in their past the past couple of years,

1086
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 2: so questions at nickel corners. So I think this defense,

1087
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,320
Speaker 2: the defensive front will be great Hicks and Goldman and

1088
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 2: mac right, but a lot of questions on that back end.

1089
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:58,359
Speaker 2: And Dalton's your quarterback, and I don't trust the coaches,

1090
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 2: says to Low and the Bears. Bears, I would if

1091
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:03,879
Speaker 2: you want to play it under, I would play under

1092
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 2: there too. They're in the same division as the lines.

1093
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: And then the Vikings kind of are who they are

1094
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 2: to me. I mean, I'm jet on market. I'm actually

1095
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,319
Speaker 2: a little lower. I'm a right around eight and a half.

1096
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 2: But they have questions too, So I think that the

1097
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 2: Packers are in really good shape to get to the playoffs.

1098
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 2: Wich is all you really want to do in the NFL,

1099
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 2: especially when you have Aaron Rodgers, because they're basically who

1100
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 2: they were last year and the division stinks.

1101
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean over on the Vikings, I think they'll

1102
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 4: be a lot better.

1103
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 5: I remember they just started off last year all out

1104
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 5: of sorts on defense. You know, they spent some money there.

1105
00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 5: You know, some guys will be a year more experienced.

1106
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 5: I think, you know, adding Woods, adding, you know, Alexander Peterson,

1107
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:47,839
Speaker 5: Vigil Weatherly. I mean, it's going to help they get

1108
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:50,719
Speaker 5: pierced back Galvin Tomlinson's a great at it on the

1109
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 5: defensive line. They won't miss as many it'll be hard.

1110
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 5: They'll be hard pressed to miss as many kicks. I

1111
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,879
Speaker 5: believe Dan Bailey missed what was it like thirteen kicks

1112
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:03,799
Speaker 5: last year, So justin Jefferson's a week, you know, they'll

1113
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 5: probably if DeWind can hang on for another year, they'll

1114
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 5: have a really a week receiving for Cousins through thirty

1115
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 5: five touchdowns and I can play the Bears and Lions

1116
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:14,320
Speaker 5: four times, So yeah, I'm I'm with you on the

1117
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 5: Bears under I think, you know, Matt Naggy has kind

1118
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 5: of gotten it. They've been averaged most years, you know,

1119
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 5: even when things look shaky, But this roster got really depleted.

1120
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 5: And I mean I have him with holes that quarterback, receiver, interior, line, linebacker, corner,

1121
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 5: and safety. So I just think there's too many holes

1122
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 5: on his team's roster. Remember, depth is so important or

1123
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 5: a little more important this year than it's ever been,

1124
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 5: and it's I just don't see it there for the Bears.

1125
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:44,399
Speaker 5: So yeah, going under on them as well.

1126
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 2: What do you think about the Saints. Let's go to the.

1127
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 4: NFC South Tampa Bay eleven and a half.

1128
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 5: Tom Brady, I didn't realize he was just good court

1129
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 5: is you know, over on the record, but he's kind

1130
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 5: of got a little Andy Reid thing though, and he's

1131
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:01,879
Speaker 5: fifteen two and two for the over of the wind

1132
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 5: total in his career. So I lean over with Tampa Bay.

1133
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 5: I probably argue New Orleans got worse. But what do

1134
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 5: you think about Tampa Bay and New Orleans at the

1135
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 5: tap of his division?

1136
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, by the way, Patrick Peterson went to the Vikings.

1137
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,200
Speaker 2: He suggested it. I've been screaming it. He wants, hey,

1138
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 2: maybe I'll move to safety. Guess so what he turned?

1139
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 2: Guess what he turned? Thirty. Guess where his production went

1140
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,719
Speaker 2: last year? South. He's a man corner. The Vikings just

1141
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 2: did this dance with Xavier Rhoades. So Patrick Peterson, well,

1142
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:33,359
Speaker 2: I love it's been on her. Listen to the guy.

1143
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 2: He man. He would have been a great safety somewhere

1144
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 2: for like a really a contender. Now we get to

1145
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 2: see him get roasted all year as a number one

1146
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 2: corner of many. Good luck against thee Donte Adams anyway,

1147
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 2: NFC South Tampa is when's the last time, Yeah, thirty

1148
00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 2: forty years a Super Bowl winner has brought back every starter.

1149
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 2: I project them a tad under twelve. This is a

1150
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 2: team that you could see. This is so narrative base

1151
00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 2: and you always talk about souper Bowl hangovers and a

1152
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 2: lot of that I think is anecdotal in the narrative base.

1153
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:06,360
Speaker 2: But it's a team everyone comes back, right, how do

1154
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 2: you motivate them early on in the season. It's like

1155
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:12,160
Speaker 2: they already have their jobs and it's it's one thing

1156
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 2: that you can you can see that arians is aware

1157
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 2: of this, right, He's saying like that. He keeps saying

1158
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 2: in the press that team won the Super Bowl. This

1159
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 2: team has done nothing, and I think that he can

1160
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 2: kind of sense that there might be some complacency right

1161
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 2: by the times in the super Bowl. You win the

1162
00:56:28,239 --> 00:56:30,880
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, there's some turnover. You're gonna have some competitions

1163
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 2: and a lot a lot of key positions. There's like

1164
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,399
Speaker 2: none of that here in Tampa. This is the same

1165
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:37,399
Speaker 2: team as last year. That would be one thing I'm

1166
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,400
Speaker 2: worried about there. They're probably they're going to be in

1167
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 2: the playoffs. The Saints is really solid roster. We know

1168
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 2: we're gonna get with Winston. I'm excited that he's started,

1169
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 2: well is he gonna start? I don't even know how

1170
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 2: much is he gonna play quarterback? Who knows? Trying to

1171
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:56,520
Speaker 2: project that, but Winston. I'm excited to back him as

1172
00:56:56,520 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 2: a dog against Tampa. Can't wait for that. Uh Fatom

1173
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:03,319
Speaker 2: is a favorite. It's gonna be a high variance player

1174
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 2: with the Saints. It's it's it doesn't really fit with

1175
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 2: their offense and DNA of who they've been recently. Be

1176
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 2: interesting to see how that works. The Panthers. Do you

1177
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:14,840
Speaker 2: believe in Darnold?

1178
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: I don't new New.

1179
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 2: New. I know that he was in a shitty situation

1180
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 2: with the shitty old line. Shitty weapons, shitty coach, but

1181
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 2: you can uh metrics and I because you can see

1182
00:57:41,480 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 2: who the guy is I think by now, and so

1183
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 2: I'm not a believer. He'll makes some great electric throws,

1184
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,400
Speaker 2: but I don't think that he's a top tier quarterback

1185
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 2: that's gonna turn around the Panthers, who have major questions

1186
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 2: on defense, major and by the way, all those corners

1187
00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 2: that were playing well at the end of beginning of

1188
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 2: last year and with flukey performances, they like released them all,

1189
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 2: which I thought was funny. So I'm not a believer

1190
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 2: in the Panthers. I project them at six point eight.

1191
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 2: I went under last year. I would lean under again

1192
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 2: with the Panthers. I'm not a Donald believer. I actually

1193
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 2: would prefer Bridgewater over over Donald, believe it or not.

1194
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 2: And the Falcons are an intriguing team, and I project

1195
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 2: them at eight and they're seven and a half. Look,

1196
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 2: the offense is gonna be good, and especially the young

1197
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,680
Speaker 2: offensive line, really young offensive line around Jake Matthews. If

1198
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 2: they can step up and progress and develop another year.

1199
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 2: They have the weapons on the outside, especially if Julio

1200
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 2: can stay healthy. They added with Davis and Quadell Patterson.

1201
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 2: Patterson was with their new offense coordinator in Chicago to

1202
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 2: be interesting to see how they use him. But they

1203
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 2: have the weapons, they're gonna score. How much can their

1204
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 2: defense help? I can they score on the red zone?

1205
00:58:57,640 --> 00:59:00,600
Speaker 2: Can they figure that out? Maybe patter and can help.

1206
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 2: It's somewhat there, but it's it's not just a fluky

1207
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 2: thing anymore to tread. But Dean Peace new defensive coordinator.

1208
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 2: I like their linebackers. I like the Harmon signing. I

1209
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 2: just wish you know they lost all their other safeties

1210
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:15,680
Speaker 2: they lost, like Neil and CAZy and Dean Piece. He's

1211
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 2: gonna run Nickel a ton and he's gonna He's run

1212
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:20,480
Speaker 2: a multiple defense with a lot of safeties on the field.

1213
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:22,000
Speaker 2: I just don't know if they have enough. I think

1214
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 2: Harmon fits really well there though. Can Fowler find his game?

1215
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 2: Can aj Terrell be a number one corner? These these

1216
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 2: are questions where you probably say no. But if everything

1217
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 2: falls into place for this defense with Pis as a

1218
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 2: new DC, this is a team that could win nine

1219
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 2: or ten games. If the defense is just as bad

1220
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 2: and they can't figure out the red zone, they're gonna

1221
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 2: win probably right around eight. Again, So I'm most intrigued

1222
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 2: by the Falcons over in this division. Other than Adam

1223
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 2: Lowe on the Panthers, the Saints are gonna be high varants.

1224
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:57,480
Speaker 2: I project them right on market and the Bucks. I'm

1225
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:58,160
Speaker 2: right around twelve.

1226
00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 4: The Panthers are my favorite right now.

1227
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 5: I mean, adding Darnold, I think kind of you know,

1228
01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:06,080
Speaker 5: maybe they were in the hunt for Watson before all this.

1229
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 5: Uh you know, all the legal issues played out, but

1230
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:12,360
Speaker 5: you know, having two shaky quarterbacks on the roster kind

1231
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 5: of cements them as a team that's in trouble. And

1232
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 5: then yeah, the their defense, you know, even with you know,

1233
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:21,720
Speaker 5: Brown getting Brown last year in the draft, major question

1234
01:00:21,840 --> 01:00:24,440
Speaker 5: marks there. As you mentioned most of the players, you know,

1235
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 5: they lost some some players that played well for them.

1236
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 5: Zach Kerr was top ten in PFF. Corn Elder, you know,

1237
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 5: was playing well at corner.

1238
01:00:32,640 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 4: He's on the Lions now. Even Curtis Samuel. I think

1239
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 4: that's a big loss on offense.

1240
01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:38,919
Speaker 5: I mean he was able to take advantage of having

1241
01:00:39,840 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 5: more and Anderson on the outside. And you add Dan

1242
01:00:42,840 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 5: Arnold at tight end. He's not really a guy that

1243
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:49,360
Speaker 5: you know, like a above average tight end. It worked

1244
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 5: on the Cardinals as a guy that you know could

1245
01:00:51,040 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 5: move inside now. But I mean there's just so many

1246
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:56,400
Speaker 5: holes on his roster and start the quarterback and the Falcons.

1247
01:00:56,680 --> 01:01:01,000
Speaker 5: Initially I like their over. Some have it at seven,

1248
01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 5: that MGM has it seven and a half. But I

1249
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,240
Speaker 5: can look at this roster and outside of Matt Ryan

1250
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 5: and Julio and Ridley and Grady Jarrett, I mean they

1251
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 5: want some sexy headliners on the roster, but I do

1252
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:15,720
Speaker 5: not think this is a talented roster. And I think

1253
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:18,760
Speaker 5: there are just too many holes, not enough hat space,

1254
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:22,040
Speaker 5: not enough drafton, just not enough to fix in one year.

1255
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 5: And I think the Saints will be a little better

1256
01:01:24,560 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 5: than people think. I think it may be taste them,

1257
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 5: but they're eight and one straight up without Breeze the

1258
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:31,320
Speaker 5: last two years. Sean Payton nine to four and one

1259
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 5: for the over in his career. So if I'm betting

1260
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:37,840
Speaker 5: on anyone to kind of, you know, kind of turning

1261
01:01:37,840 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 5: around his division or after the Bucks or keep it going,

1262
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 5: it's gonna be the Saints and not the Falcons.

1263
01:01:43,280 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 4: They just I just think there's a lot of holes

1264
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 4: in that roster.

1265
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:47,959
Speaker 5: And again, it's one of those teams where that's gonna

1266
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 5: come into play, even more because depth is going to

1267
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:52,400
Speaker 5: be a concern and if you have any one of

1268
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:54,640
Speaker 5: those headline guys go down for any period of time.

1269
01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:56,200
Speaker 4: And we know Juio is getting older. I mean, I

1270
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 4: just think they're in big trouble.

1271
01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 5: So not really on the Falcons, but I love the

1272
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:03,840
Speaker 5: Panthers under that's my favorite right now.

1273
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 2: Don't don't just good. But by the way, you can

1274
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 2: inform myself and the readers, I've done all of my

1275
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:13,840
Speaker 2: NFL catchup three full days this week after being just

1276
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:18,120
Speaker 2: immersed in college basketball as what is the consensus with

1277
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:22,160
Speaker 2: the Saints because I went with, like, okay, seventy five percent,

1278
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 2: it's Winston. But I am like so much lower on

1279
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 2: Hill than everyone. I guess Hill would maybe fit there.

1280
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:30,320
Speaker 2: I don't even know what is Do you think it's

1281
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 2: gonna be Hill from day one?

1282
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 4: I think it'll be Ill. I'm just going off with

1283
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 4: Sean Payton has shown us.

1284
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:38,840
Speaker 5: I mean, he brought Benston in for that one game,

1285
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:41,080
Speaker 5: and everyone thought he was gonna start.

1286
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 4: It was almost assumed.

1287
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:44,120
Speaker 5: I remember that first week, it was like assumed, and

1288
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 5: so it wasn't and he wasn't starting, and we never

1289
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 5: saw him again.

1290
01:02:47,000 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 4: And so he through the trick passing the playoffs. But

1291
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:52,640
Speaker 4: I think is Hill like thet is.

1292
01:02:52,640 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 2: That because of like it's a one week thing, so

1293
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:57,520
Speaker 2: it's harder to prepare for. Like, oh, Hill has legs,

1294
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:00,720
Speaker 2: his legs and then Winston the way that he plays

1295
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:03,520
Speaker 2: doesn't really fit the offense. Will they redo the offense?

1296
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 2: I don't know Hill Peyton's dreaming of this.

1297
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 5: I think the reason Winston came in that game is

1298
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:15,240
Speaker 5: a lot of people forget this. But Haysom Hill, it's

1299
01:03:15,400 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 5: part of every week's game plan on special teams and offense.

1300
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:22,760
Speaker 5: Like he's a receiver, he runs routes, he does like

1301
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 5: he does a lot of things. So that's why you

1302
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 5: don't bring him in because he's already you know, he's

1303
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 5: part of the offensive game plan at other positions, you know,

1304
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 5: if he's not starting. So I think that's why Winston

1305
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 5: came in. But I'm just judging by Sean Payton. I

1306
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 5: think it'll be I think it'd be Taysom Hill, and

1307
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 5: I think I think it might work. I mean, I

1308
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 5: think it can work because it's a guy who can

1309
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 5: move around. He's still got Michael Thomas.

1310
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 4: I would like to see them upgrade the receiving corps.

1311
01:03:50,680 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 4: But you know, very solid roster guy that can run.

1312
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 5: I mean, is he you know how much he's just

1313
01:03:57,520 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 5: it's like a poor man Josh Allen situation, right, It's

1314
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:02,440
Speaker 5: like Josh Allen was bad at one point and then

1315
01:04:02,520 --> 01:04:05,680
Speaker 5: he got good. And I mean Haysom Hill's not that, like,

1316
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 5: not in the same thing, but I just think he

1317
01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 5: gives him enough, especially with this roster, with this coaching staff,

1318
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 5: that I would expect New Orleans to beat up on

1319
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 5: the Panthers and Falcons and end up going over.

1320
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 4: So I don't know the consensus.

1321
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:22,439
Speaker 5: I think people were kind of assuming Winston, but I'm

1322
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:25,880
Speaker 5: definitely saying Haysom Hill starts more games barn injury.

1323
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 2: You have more Phantom Hill than me. And by the way,

1324
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 2: Hill's like over thirty, I think in Allen's only twenty four,

1325
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 2: but solid roster, well coached. I just don't see it

1326
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:37,960
Speaker 2: with Hill's arm, like being consistent enough.

1327
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:40,920
Speaker 4: Thrower, but I mean Drew breathing no arm and they

1328
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 4: got it done.

1329
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:45,760
Speaker 2: So you know fair when I'm bound to do it.

1330
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:58,480
Speaker 4: Let's go to the NFC Western wrap it up here.

1331
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 5: We got the Rams ten and a half. I gotta

1332
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:04,920
Speaker 5: go under both the Rams and the Niners are ten

1333
01:05:05,000 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 5: and a half. I go under on both Rislin. I

1334
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 5: like both of these teams rosters, but with the Rams,

1335
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 5: I just I still have questions about Matthew Stafford. I mean,

1336
01:05:15,280 --> 01:05:18,560
Speaker 5: just how much will he be in upgrade on Jared Goff?

1337
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:21,560
Speaker 5: I think is the question Stafford has had two winning seasons.

1338
01:05:22,160 --> 01:05:24,360
Speaker 5: Is that because of the defense in Detroit all these years?

1339
01:05:24,600 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 2: You know?

1340
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:28,080
Speaker 4: Or I mean he definitely had trouble beating winning teams.

1341
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:28,560
Speaker 4: We know that.

1342
01:05:29,600 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 5: So I, you know, ten and a half in a

1343
01:05:31,720 --> 01:05:34,000
Speaker 5: division where I could see any of the four teams

1344
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 5: being a double digit win team is just tough for me.

1345
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna take the value on the unders for

1346
01:05:40,240 --> 01:05:42,840
Speaker 5: the teams at the top, and then I like the Seahawks.

1347
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:45,280
Speaker 4: That's my favorite over nine and a half.

1348
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 5: They've won double digit games in eight of nine years

1349
01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:50,040
Speaker 5: with Russell Wilson, and that's in a sixteen game slit.

1350
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:52,640
Speaker 5: So now you can bet them over nine and a half,

1351
01:05:53,160 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 5: and you got an extra game to get there.

1352
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:57,120
Speaker 4: Their offensive line.

1353
01:05:56,960 --> 01:06:00,480
Speaker 5: All five starters now should be with the addition of Jackson,

1354
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 5: would rank above average and pass blocking efficiency per Pro

1355
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 5: Football Focus, So Wilson may actually have a good O line.

1356
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:10,360
Speaker 5: I do think they need another receiver or two. You know,

1357
01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 5: they're very short on depth. If those the thuds go down.

1358
01:06:14,080 --> 01:06:17,120
Speaker 5: But I like the Seahawks roster. The one thing is

1359
01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 5: they don't really have much draft capital. So if you

1360
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 5: don't like their roster as much as I do, I

1361
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:22,400
Speaker 5: could see.

1362
01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 4: It like why you stay away. But I really like

1363
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:25,120
Speaker 4: what they're doing.

1364
01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:27,600
Speaker 5: Witherspoon was a good ad, Hire was a good ad.

1365
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:30,320
Speaker 5: Their pass rus should be improved, d Wine should be

1366
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:33,760
Speaker 5: improved with Woods and then Cardinals. I lean over the

1367
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:36,720
Speaker 5: eight wins. I think the two teams at the top

1368
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 5: are little over rated. I think the Cardinals could go

1369
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:41,560
Speaker 5: like three and one against the Rams and Niners or

1370
01:06:41,560 --> 01:06:42,000
Speaker 5: something like that.

1371
01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:44,520
Speaker 4: I do like the moves they made.

1372
01:06:44,520 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 5: You know, they took some chances on some veterans like

1373
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:50,680
Speaker 5: watt in Green, but they also got Roddy Hudson.

1374
01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 4: I think Butler will be a good ad for them.

1375
01:06:53,720 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 5: You know, they added Connors so they don't have to

1376
01:06:57,280 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 5: use a draft pick on a running back, which is

1377
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:01,080
Speaker 5: key because they only have two in the top fifty

1378
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:02,760
Speaker 5: and then not another one into the fifth round. So

1379
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 5: another team. That really comes down to how you feel

1380
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 5: about their roster. They didn't lose some linebackers but Peterson.

1381
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 5: But I like the Cardinals. I think I think they're

1382
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 5: a little bit undervalue because the Rams and Niners were inflated.

1383
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:20,120
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury, Matt Prater, he might help.

1384
01:07:20,160 --> 01:07:22,640
Speaker 2: They had all kinds of kicking issues last year. I'm

1385
01:07:22,680 --> 01:07:24,720
Speaker 2: at eight feet right out, eight and a half for

1386
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:26,840
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. You can get them over eight. I would

1387
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 2: lean over there with Arizona. Look, I mean some of

1388
01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 2: the it's like what can give you? Aj Green? What

1389
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:36,480
Speaker 2: does he have left? I mean some of their older signings,

1390
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:38,920
Speaker 2: But I don't mind them. I think watch is from

1391
01:07:39,120 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 2: He's gonna make plays from a leadership perspective. On the defense,

1392
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 2: by the way, vance Joseph's defense. You think about the

1393
01:07:44,040 --> 01:07:46,640
Speaker 2: Cardinals last year, like, oh, their offense, they were they

1394
01:07:46,720 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 2: finished tenth DVI on defense, they were nineteenth on offense,

1395
01:07:49,800 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 2: and they had a lot of injuries too. I do

1396
01:07:52,000 --> 01:07:53,680
Speaker 2: like them. If they're gonna get the Chandler Jones back

1397
01:07:53,720 --> 01:07:57,400
Speaker 2: from injury, yep, Jalen Thompson back from injury, Robert Alfred

1398
01:07:57,480 --> 01:08:01,480
Speaker 2: back from injury. In Tier D line, some question marks

1399
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:04,160
Speaker 2: there as well as linebacker, but I think they might

1400
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:06,520
Speaker 2: go defense in the draft. Isaiah Simmons his second year,

1401
01:08:06,640 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 2: so there's a lot to like about the defensive look.

1402
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:11,560
Speaker 2: Peterson was cooked. I mean he was. He was absolutely cooking.

1403
01:08:11,640 --> 01:08:14,720
Speaker 2: His worst coverage grade since his rookie year. He led

1404
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 2: the league in penalties to give fifty catches on seventy

1405
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 2: five targets. Just he's done. And then you replace him

1406
01:08:21,479 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 2: with Malcolm Butler at a good year last year. Look,

1407
01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 2: they're both over the age of thirty. But you did

1408
01:08:25,400 --> 01:08:28,040
Speaker 2: it for seven million less on a one year deal.

1409
01:08:28,160 --> 01:08:30,599
Speaker 2: So I like that signing. I like the Hudson signing

1410
01:08:30,600 --> 01:08:34,240
Speaker 2: at the center to go along with Humphreys at left tackle.

1411
01:08:34,240 --> 01:08:35,920
Speaker 2: He's one of the most underrated tackles I think in

1412
01:08:35,960 --> 01:08:41,000
Speaker 2: the NFL. So I think, can Mary just continuous progression

1413
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 2: make smarter decisions? Can they? I'm not a huge fan

1414
01:08:43,920 --> 01:08:45,200
Speaker 2: of Kingsbury, as.

1415
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:48,800
Speaker 1: You know, Cliff Kingsbury.

1416
01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:51,799
Speaker 2: Play calling, perspective, decision making at the end of games

1417
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:53,800
Speaker 2: I think is going to burn them. But yeah, I

1418
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 2: like some of the things that the Cardinals are doing.

1419
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 2: And then the rest of the vision. I project the

1420
01:08:58,200 --> 01:09:02,599
Speaker 2: forty nine ers at ten on the dot, the Seahawks

1421
01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:05,840
Speaker 2: at ten wins on the dot and the Rams at

1422
01:09:06,040 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 2: like ten two. I believe in Stafford. I mean, if

1423
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 2: you look historically all quarterbacks there, the rankings of their

1424
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:16,360
Speaker 2: defense at special teams over a ten year, Stafford is

1425
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:18,200
Speaker 2: all the way at the bottom, like the unlucky. You

1426
01:09:18,280 --> 01:09:21,559
Speaker 2: have no help ever in that organization. So and I'm

1427
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:23,519
Speaker 2: not a fan of golf, so and I'm so much

1428
01:09:23,560 --> 01:09:25,519
Speaker 2: low on golf than I think the history of the world.

1429
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:27,400
Speaker 2: So I think it's a big upgrade. But their defense

1430
01:09:28,120 --> 01:09:30,760
Speaker 2: not gonna be as good. And their defense was dominant,

1431
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:34,240
Speaker 2: dominant last year. But you lose Troy Hill, you lose Johnson,

1432
01:09:34,320 --> 01:09:37,639
Speaker 2: both to the Browns. So I think that the defense

1433
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:42,280
Speaker 2: is it's gonna be good, especially when you have Ramsey

1434
01:09:42,320 --> 01:09:43,880
Speaker 2: and you have Aaron Donald, but it's not gonna be

1435
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:46,120
Speaker 2: as elite how much. But the offense, I think is

1436
01:09:46,120 --> 01:09:48,080
Speaker 2: going to be a lot better. So how much can

1437
01:09:48,360 --> 01:09:50,840
Speaker 2: how much better is the offense than the defense will decline?

1438
01:09:50,880 --> 01:09:52,519
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a little bit better, but

1439
01:09:52,600 --> 01:09:54,760
Speaker 2: I'm right around a little over ten wins with them.

1440
01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:57,640
Speaker 2: The Seattle is like they're play calling and the let

1441
01:09:57,760 --> 01:09:59,280
Speaker 2: Russ cook. That's the thing to watch them. But I'm

1442
01:09:59,360 --> 01:10:01,720
Speaker 2: right around ten. I not bet they're sant Fran. They

1443
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:04,479
Speaker 2: look they're gonna be healthier this year. They had it's

1444
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:07,679
Speaker 2: such bad injury lock last year. I think they're gonna

1445
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:10,040
Speaker 2: be there, depending on how the chicks out with quarterbacks.

1446
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:12,160
Speaker 2: Are they gonna go quarterback in the draft are they not?

1447
01:10:12,439 --> 01:10:15,280
Speaker 2: Is it gonna be Jimmy g Is it so interesting? Team?

1448
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 2: Interesting division? I don't think I'll be involved in any

1449
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:21,560
Speaker 2: like you, I would probably lean Cardinals over, but I

1450
01:10:21,600 --> 01:10:23,800
Speaker 2: do want to wait to see what sant Fran does

1451
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 2: in the draft, and uh, the Rams will be fun

1452
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:31,080
Speaker 2: to watch without golf Sean Jackson. Could the Sean Jackson

1453
01:10:31,120 --> 01:10:32,360
Speaker 2: stay healthy and give them a? Yeah?

1454
01:10:32,360 --> 01:10:33,000
Speaker 4: For three games?

1455
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:36,040
Speaker 5: You gotta projection for three games every single year. But

1456
01:10:36,160 --> 01:10:39,439
Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, the Rams in Yeah. I think the Rams, Seahawks,

1457
01:10:39,479 --> 01:10:41,519
Speaker 5: and Niners are pretty even so. The fact that the

1458
01:10:41,560 --> 01:10:44,599
Speaker 5: Seahawks are, you know, third to win the division, third

1459
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:48,479
Speaker 5: and win totals. They are my favorite over right now,

1460
01:10:48,560 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 5: and then favorite Understow the Panthers, and then I think

1461
01:10:52,479 --> 01:10:56,200
Speaker 5: second favorite over probably the Washington football team. Second favorite

1462
01:10:56,280 --> 01:11:01,040
Speaker 5: under uh, probably the kind of time of the Jagson Titans.

1463
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:04,240
Speaker 5: But I think that whole division is gonna gonna think

1464
01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:07,320
Speaker 5: as I as we talked about. But any final thoughts.

1465
01:11:07,080 --> 01:11:08,799
Speaker 4: Before we get out of here.

1466
01:11:09,600 --> 01:11:11,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll have an article. It was good to catch up,

1467
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:14,000
Speaker 2: good to talk. We always go along as always, we

1468
01:11:14,080 --> 01:11:16,880
Speaker 2: have so much to say. Appreciate everyone listening. I can't

1469
01:11:16,920 --> 01:11:19,080
Speaker 2: wait to get back in the flow, the weekly flow.

1470
01:11:19,120 --> 01:11:21,240
Speaker 2: But it was good to catch everyone up. I'm looking

1471
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:23,360
Speaker 2: forward to the drafts. I'll have a piece out later

1472
01:11:23,439 --> 01:11:26,360
Speaker 2: this summer with my final win totals. Last year they

1473
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:28,760
Speaker 2: went four to oho and two. Hopefully we can duplicate that,

1474
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:31,320
Speaker 2: probably have like five or six. Again. You have to

1475
01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 2: tie up money for such a long time now. If

1476
01:11:33,040 --> 01:11:35,560
Speaker 2: you want to the three that I would recommend it

1477
01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:37,639
Speaker 2: went over and under. In the Super Bowl future, I'd

1478
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:42,840
Speaker 2: go Bill super Bowl, I'd go Lions under, and I

1479
01:11:43,000 --> 01:11:45,360
Speaker 2: would go Broncos over.

1480
01:11:45,760 --> 01:11:47,559
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I forgot about them. I like the Broncos

1481
01:11:47,840 --> 01:11:51,519
Speaker 4: a lot too, So yeah, I mean that's the only thing.

1482
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:53,679
Speaker 4: It's like, why I'm not going to save them.

1483
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:55,320
Speaker 5: As my best bet just because they do have that

1484
01:11:55,479 --> 01:11:58,080
Speaker 5: giant whole quarterback. But I mean, man, if through Lock

1485
01:11:58,920 --> 01:12:01,519
Speaker 5: is even like an average quarterback this year, because you know,

1486
01:12:01,600 --> 01:12:03,640
Speaker 5: he had the week in interceptions, didn't even start all

1487
01:12:03,680 --> 01:12:04,120
Speaker 5: the games.

1488
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:06,760
Speaker 4: He's just average. I mean, this team could be really,

1489
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:08,280
Speaker 4: really dangerous.

1490
01:12:09,840 --> 01:12:13,639
Speaker 2: All right, we are now joined by our colleague, Matthew Friedman.

1491
01:12:13,960 --> 01:12:16,280
Speaker 2: I'm sure you've been asked this question before, but a

1492
01:12:16,439 --> 01:12:19,439
Speaker 2: priest or priestess acting as a medium through whom advice

1493
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:22,280
Speaker 2: or prophecy was sought from the gods in classic antiquity,

1494
01:12:22,600 --> 01:12:24,719
Speaker 2: Matt at the Oracle on Twitter. If you're not familiar,

1495
01:12:24,920 --> 01:12:26,320
Speaker 2: how did you come up with that humble name?

1496
01:12:26,800 --> 01:12:31,759
Speaker 6: So it has nothing to do with any prescient skills

1497
01:12:31,960 --> 01:12:34,880
Speaker 6: that I have, because I have none. It's primarily to

1498
01:12:35,000 --> 01:12:37,759
Speaker 6: do with the fact that I believe. In two thousand

1499
01:12:37,800 --> 01:12:41,760
Speaker 6: and ten, there was the TV show The League, and

1500
01:12:42,040 --> 01:12:44,760
Speaker 6: in the pilot episode of the League, there's this little

1501
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:48,879
Speaker 6: kid whose name is Matt Friedman, the fantasy football Oracle.

1502
01:12:49,439 --> 01:12:54,080
Speaker 6: No wife, no kids, just pure football knowledge. So you know,

1503
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 6: it was almost destined. Plus, you know, when I got

1504
01:12:58,040 --> 01:13:01,880
Speaker 6: to Twitter in twenty thirteen, like every iteration of Matt

1505
01:13:02,040 --> 01:13:06,040
Speaker 6: Friedman or Matthew Friedman or Friedman, Matt Friedman, Matthew whatever,

1506
01:13:06,120 --> 01:13:08,920
Speaker 6: all of them were taken by people who aren't doing

1507
01:13:09,040 --> 01:13:11,519
Speaker 6: anything with these handles, it's really annoying.

1508
01:13:11,600 --> 01:13:14,240
Speaker 2: So I went with Matt f the Oracle. Wait, so

1509
01:13:14,280 --> 01:13:17,519
Speaker 2: your your real name is Matthew Freeman though, right, Yeah, okay,

1510
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:19,840
Speaker 2: well people ask me my real name is Stucky, So

1511
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:21,960
Speaker 2: I mean that's the only reason I asked, because it's

1512
01:13:22,000 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 2: not so at least you're you have your real name

1513
01:13:24,360 --> 01:13:26,000
Speaker 2: on Twitter and I know you as your real name.

1514
01:13:27,240 --> 01:13:30,760
Speaker 2: So for my money, you're the best mock drafter out there.

1515
01:13:31,040 --> 01:13:35,599
Speaker 2: From a better's perspective. You crush it. These lines move

1516
01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:41,439
Speaker 2: quick the market this year compared to others. What would

1517
01:13:41,479 --> 01:13:43,000
Speaker 2: be your high level thoughts there?

1518
01:13:43,760 --> 01:13:46,519
Speaker 6: Last year's market was so robust because there were no

1519
01:13:46,640 --> 01:13:49,160
Speaker 6: sports going on, right, so it was like the bookmakers

1520
01:13:49,200 --> 01:13:52,639
Speaker 6: were just putting out tons of lines. And for instance,

1521
01:13:53,120 --> 01:13:55,800
Speaker 6: this year right now, I've only seen one head to

1522
01:13:55,880 --> 01:13:59,200
Speaker 6: head matchup and it's, you know, pretty generic Davonte Smith

1523
01:13:59,280 --> 01:14:02,479
Speaker 6: versus Jalen. They both have eleven and a half over unders,

1524
01:14:02,640 --> 01:14:04,439
Speaker 6: so it's not like there's really much going on there.

1525
01:14:04,760 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 6: Last year, at this time, we had a lot of

1526
01:14:07,320 --> 01:14:11,040
Speaker 6: wide receiver over wide receiver head to heads, uh more

1527
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:14,719
Speaker 6: over unders in the market for guys who maybe weren't

1528
01:14:14,760 --> 01:14:17,680
Speaker 6: even going to go in the first round. So it's

1529
01:14:17,880 --> 01:14:20,560
Speaker 6: it's an interesting market. It's better than all of the

1530
01:14:20,720 --> 01:14:23,640
Speaker 6: other years, except for last year, which I think, you know,

1531
01:14:23,720 --> 01:14:25,960
Speaker 6: in the big picture, was going to be an anomaly

1532
01:14:26,560 --> 01:14:28,960
Speaker 6: just because the book makers had nothing else to focus on.

1533
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:32,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you asked most ospekers, I'll tell you that

1534
01:14:32,800 --> 01:14:35,880
Speaker 2: draft props or and just like clever draft bucks are

1535
01:14:35,920 --> 01:14:37,320
Speaker 2: very beatable. It's that there are a lot you know,

1536
01:14:37,360 --> 01:14:39,880
Speaker 2: books will be a loss leader in the draft market,

1537
01:14:40,000 --> 01:14:41,800
Speaker 2: and I'm always interested to see, like, are they still

1538
01:14:41,880 --> 01:14:43,880
Speaker 2: going to take that approach? Are they still going to

1539
01:14:43,960 --> 01:14:46,760
Speaker 2: put out lines early? Are some books just gonna wait

1540
01:14:46,800 --> 01:14:48,519
Speaker 2: until you know, the last day or two when you

1541
01:14:48,560 --> 01:14:50,920
Speaker 2: pretty much you see all the line moves. It's it

1542
01:14:50,960 --> 01:14:54,000
Speaker 2: gets a little crazy, but it's definitely a beatable market.

1543
01:14:54,479 --> 01:14:57,000
Speaker 2: Lives do move. People are gonna be listening to this

1544
01:14:57,439 --> 01:14:59,600
Speaker 2: maybe a day or two after the record, so they

1545
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:02,040
Speaker 2: could move again. But as of right now, what are

1546
01:15:02,120 --> 01:15:05,680
Speaker 2: some of the best value bets that you see on

1547
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:06,160
Speaker 2: the board.

1548
01:15:07,240 --> 01:15:10,880
Speaker 6: So I have an index of mock drafts, you know,

1549
01:15:11,320 --> 01:15:15,400
Speaker 6: mock drafts that I think are predictive by experts who

1550
01:15:15,439 --> 01:15:18,320
Speaker 6: have been accurate over a number of years, and so

1551
01:15:18,479 --> 01:15:21,920
Speaker 6: I use this index, you know, to help me in

1552
01:15:22,040 --> 01:15:25,400
Speaker 6: my sort of quote unquote handicapping. This index I think

1553
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:28,960
Speaker 6: is really good at helping me order the prospects and

1554
01:15:29,280 --> 01:15:31,760
Speaker 6: helping me come up with over unders. It's not quite

1555
01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:35,200
Speaker 6: as good at helping me sort of nail exactly like

1556
01:15:35,439 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 6: a running back is going to go to this team

1557
01:15:37,479 --> 01:15:40,640
Speaker 6: in round one, or even like an offensive player is

1558
01:15:40,720 --> 01:15:42,960
Speaker 6: going to go to this team in round one. But

1559
01:15:43,160 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 6: some of those those types of bets are the ones

1560
01:15:46,240 --> 01:15:50,000
Speaker 6: that offer higher upside, right, because you'll find plus money.

1561
01:15:50,080 --> 01:15:51,760
Speaker 6: And so those are some of the ones that people

1562
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:54,000
Speaker 6: like to bet, and I have found a couple in

1563
01:15:54,120 --> 01:15:56,960
Speaker 6: that area that I do think are profitable. So one

1564
01:15:57,200 --> 01:15:59,519
Speaker 6: prop that is out there in this vein that looks

1565
01:15:59,560 --> 01:16:03,040
Speaker 6: really good is defense to Washington with their first pick

1566
01:16:03,120 --> 01:16:05,600
Speaker 6: in the draft, and you know, you I got this

1567
01:16:05,760 --> 01:16:08,280
Speaker 6: at plus four fifty. I think it's betable down honestly

1568
01:16:08,360 --> 01:16:12,000
Speaker 6: to like even money. And literally half of the drafts

1569
01:16:12,120 --> 01:16:15,760
Speaker 6: that I've seen Washington has been going with a defensive

1570
01:16:15,760 --> 01:16:19,800
Speaker 6: player linebacker to be specific. And you know, you look

1571
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:22,479
Speaker 6: at defense, sorry, you look at Washington and you can

1572
01:16:22,520 --> 01:16:24,960
Speaker 6: see obviously they need an offensive tackle, they need a

1573
01:16:25,000 --> 01:16:27,360
Speaker 6: wide receiver that doesn't mean they're going to go with

1574
01:16:27,479 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 6: those positions in round one, I think, you know, and

1575
01:16:30,400 --> 01:16:32,640
Speaker 6: a lot of these, especially in the second half of

1576
01:16:32,680 --> 01:16:35,439
Speaker 6: the first round, whether they go offense or defense. In

1577
01:16:35,479 --> 01:16:37,479
Speaker 6: a lot of cases, it's close to a coin flip.

1578
01:16:37,640 --> 01:16:39,240
Speaker 6: And so to be able to get this even now

1579
01:16:39,280 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 6: I'm looking at it, you can get it around plus

1580
01:16:41,640 --> 01:16:44,840
Speaker 6: three hundred at some books. I think there's a significant

1581
01:16:44,880 --> 01:16:46,920
Speaker 6: amount of value there. And then one other one in

1582
01:16:47,000 --> 01:16:51,639
Speaker 6: this vein offensive player to Las Vegas with the first pick,

1583
01:16:52,560 --> 01:16:54,720
Speaker 6: their first pick in the draft. You can get this

1584
01:16:54,880 --> 01:16:58,280
Speaker 6: at plus two twenty five. I think there's significant value there.

1585
01:16:58,320 --> 01:17:00,800
Speaker 6: I think that should be around plus one hundred as well.

1586
01:17:00,840 --> 01:17:02,920
Speaker 6: It's pretty much a coin flip whether they go offense

1587
01:17:03,000 --> 01:17:05,160
Speaker 6: or defense. So those are two props that are out

1588
01:17:05,200 --> 01:17:07,600
Speaker 6: there significant plus money, and you know, I think they

1589
01:17:07,640 --> 01:17:10,000
Speaker 6: will still be significant plus money by the time people

1590
01:17:10,040 --> 01:17:10,760
Speaker 6: are listening to this.

1591
01:17:11,840 --> 01:17:15,120
Speaker 2: What is driving the discrepancy between what you think? I mean?

1592
01:17:15,160 --> 01:17:18,400
Speaker 2: I guess Washington makes sense. You think that just from

1593
01:17:18,439 --> 01:17:21,080
Speaker 2: a public better perspective, just from a complete casual you

1594
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:24,839
Speaker 2: would say, look, their defense is loaded already with Vegas.

1595
01:17:24,920 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 2: You would say, a look, their defense doesn't need help.

1596
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:29,240
Speaker 2: But so does their offensive line. But what is driving

1597
01:17:29,280 --> 01:17:32,200
Speaker 2: that discrepancy, do you think? So a couple of things.

1598
01:17:32,280 --> 01:17:33,960
Speaker 6: One, I think it does have to do with sort

1599
01:17:33,960 --> 01:17:36,680
Speaker 6: of like big picture needs and so you know, if

1600
01:17:36,760 --> 01:17:39,800
Speaker 6: books are looking at this really quickly, they might just

1601
01:17:39,840 --> 01:17:42,320
Speaker 6: sort of see, Okay, this unit is lacking more than

1602
01:17:42,400 --> 01:17:45,840
Speaker 6: that unit, or like this unit has bigger needs and

1603
01:17:45,920 --> 01:17:47,519
Speaker 6: so that's the one that should be favored.

1604
01:17:48,000 --> 01:17:48,120
Speaker 3: Uh.

1605
01:17:48,360 --> 01:17:51,519
Speaker 6: And then maybe they're looking at a couple maybe like

1606
01:17:51,600 --> 01:17:54,479
Speaker 6: two to three mock drafts out there from people who

1607
01:17:54,640 --> 01:17:57,920
Speaker 6: have big names a bigger media companies, and they're seen

1608
01:17:58,200 --> 01:18:02,719
Speaker 6: where those mock drafters are putting people, and they're shading

1609
01:18:02,800 --> 01:18:05,080
Speaker 6: lines based on that. Like I think if they were

1610
01:18:05,400 --> 01:18:09,320
Speaker 6: looking at twenty mock drafts from twenty sharp mockers, they

1611
01:18:09,320 --> 01:18:13,320
Speaker 6: would probably have different lines. So I think that's part

1612
01:18:13,360 --> 01:18:15,479
Speaker 6: of what's skewing it. One just maybe like their quick

1613
01:18:15,600 --> 01:18:19,120
Speaker 6: perception of team need. And then also maybe they're consulting

1614
01:18:19,200 --> 01:18:21,479
Speaker 6: only two to three mock drafts and that's throwing the

1615
01:18:21,560 --> 01:18:22,080
Speaker 6: lines off.

1616
01:18:22,960 --> 01:18:27,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, we pretty much know Lawrence Wilson, right what's going

1617
01:18:27,920 --> 01:18:30,120
Speaker 2: on with what's the update on number three? As of

1618
01:18:30,240 --> 01:18:30,519
Speaker 2: right now?

1619
01:18:30,960 --> 01:18:34,439
Speaker 6: Man, my stomach hurts thinking about this so I mean,

1620
01:18:34,720 --> 01:18:37,360
Speaker 6: as we are recording this, mac Jones is plus one

1621
01:18:37,479 --> 01:18:40,880
Speaker 6: fifty to be the number three pick. At one point

1622
01:18:41,000 --> 01:18:43,880
Speaker 6: last week he was minus three hundred justin Fields is now,

1623
01:18:44,280 --> 01:18:46,280
Speaker 6: you know, a heavy favorite, not heavy favorite, but the

1624
01:18:46,320 --> 01:18:49,479
Speaker 6: consensus favorite across the industry. You know, minus one twenty

1625
01:18:49,520 --> 01:18:52,080
Speaker 6: five is often where you can find him. I mean,

1626
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:55,920
Speaker 6: here's here's the situation. We do not know what's going

1627
01:18:55,960 --> 01:18:58,799
Speaker 6: on with San Francisco, but we do know that Adam Schefter,

1628
01:18:59,080 --> 01:19:01,599
Speaker 6: who is I think as close to the gold standard

1629
01:19:01,680 --> 01:19:05,639
Speaker 6: as he gets with NFL insider information, he has said

1630
01:19:06,240 --> 01:19:07,559
Speaker 6: that it will be mac Jones.

1631
01:19:07,640 --> 01:19:08,160
Speaker 2: Now he has.

1632
01:19:08,160 --> 01:19:11,080
Speaker 6: Backtracked a little bit from the certainty of that statement.

1633
01:19:11,160 --> 01:19:14,920
Speaker 6: Last week on ESPN Radio, asked outright, what did the

1634
01:19:14,960 --> 01:19:17,120
Speaker 6: forty nine ers do at number three? He said it

1635
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:20,679
Speaker 6: will be mac Jones. He has backtracked, and he's framed

1636
01:19:20,720 --> 01:19:23,200
Speaker 6: it in the language of if they were to pick today,

1637
01:19:23,800 --> 01:19:26,040
Speaker 6: I believe it would be mac Jones, or if it

1638
01:19:26,160 --> 01:19:28,240
Speaker 6: is mac Jones, it would not surprise me. But Schefter

1639
01:19:28,360 --> 01:19:30,760
Speaker 6: is still leaning. Last we heard, Schefter is still leaning

1640
01:19:30,840 --> 01:19:34,400
Speaker 6: towards mac Jones. Daniel Jeremiah at NFL Network, who is

1641
01:19:34,720 --> 01:19:36,880
Speaker 6: very tuned in to draft rumors and who in the

1642
01:19:36,960 --> 01:19:39,160
Speaker 6: past three years. Each of the past three years has

1643
01:19:39,200 --> 01:19:42,280
Speaker 6: been a top twelve mock drafter. He is leaning towards

1644
01:19:42,360 --> 01:19:46,439
Speaker 6: Mac Jones, and you know, Mike Lombardi for what is worth,

1645
01:19:46,640 --> 01:19:50,439
Speaker 6: he also is leaning towards Mac Jones. I think the pick,

1646
01:19:50,640 --> 01:19:53,680
Speaker 6: you know, from a sort of evaluative perspective, I think

1647
01:19:53,720 --> 01:19:56,960
Speaker 6: the pick should be Justin Fields. I think Fields is

1648
01:19:57,040 --> 01:20:00,519
Speaker 6: the better prospect, the better quarterback, the more dynamic player.

1649
01:20:01,040 --> 01:20:04,479
Speaker 6: But given the information we have right now, even though

1650
01:20:04,560 --> 01:20:08,080
Speaker 6: the market has moved towards Justin Fields in the wake

1651
01:20:08,280 --> 01:20:11,680
Speaker 6: of his pro day and with some people you know

1652
01:20:11,760 --> 01:20:15,760
Speaker 6: publicly saying that there are connections between San Francisco and

1653
01:20:15,960 --> 01:20:19,040
Speaker 6: Justin Fields, I still think that right now Mac Jones

1654
01:20:19,120 --> 01:20:20,040
Speaker 6: should be the favorite.

1655
01:20:22,840 --> 01:20:25,320
Speaker 2: Two other questions and we really appreciate your time. You

1656
01:20:25,400 --> 01:20:27,560
Speaker 2: can check out all Freeman stuff on Twitter and on

1657
01:20:27,760 --> 01:20:31,040
Speaker 2: Actionnework dot com, the Action Network AAP In your latest

1658
01:20:31,120 --> 01:20:33,479
Speaker 2: mock draft, I'll throw two things out you that I

1659
01:20:33,560 --> 01:20:37,080
Speaker 2: actually I don't know, I guess disagree with, just kind

1660
01:20:37,080 --> 01:20:41,920
Speaker 2: of get your thoughts on some people are indirectly associated

1661
01:20:41,960 --> 01:20:46,040
Speaker 2: with with the Browns and Cults organizations. I don't think

1662
01:20:46,120 --> 01:20:47,800
Speaker 2: the brown You have the Browns taking a linebacker, so

1663
01:20:47,880 --> 01:20:51,240
Speaker 2: does like almost everybody from everyone, well not everyone for

1664
01:20:51,280 --> 01:20:55,160
Speaker 2: a few people I talk to. Their very analytic based

1665
01:20:55,280 --> 01:20:58,720
Speaker 2: front office is from what I hear, is not going

1666
01:20:58,760 --> 01:21:02,240
Speaker 2: to go linebacker in the firstund Colts. I would think

1667
01:21:03,160 --> 01:21:05,240
Speaker 2: that they would maybe go edge on either end where

1668
01:21:05,240 --> 01:21:07,040
Speaker 2: they need a tackle if the stands are retired and

1669
01:21:07,120 --> 01:21:09,760
Speaker 2: they need someone off the edge, and I think you

1670
01:21:09,840 --> 01:21:12,599
Speaker 2: have them going corner, which would would fill and need

1671
01:21:12,640 --> 01:21:14,040
Speaker 2: any thoughts on both of those teams.

1672
01:21:14,560 --> 01:21:18,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I could definitely see the Browns going

1673
01:21:18,720 --> 01:21:21,160
Speaker 6: with an edge defender. That is certainly in the wheelhouse

1674
01:21:21,720 --> 01:21:24,679
Speaker 6: right there. But of course they did just sign Davian Clowney,

1675
01:21:25,040 --> 01:21:27,760
Speaker 6: so you know, maybe that lessons the need for them

1676
01:21:27,800 --> 01:21:32,000
Speaker 6: to take an edge defender there. But defense really, like

1677
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:34,599
Speaker 6: in one hundred percent of the sharp monks I've seen,

1678
01:21:35,080 --> 01:21:37,479
Speaker 6: the Browns are going defense there. Not that that really

1679
01:21:37,600 --> 01:21:41,320
Speaker 6: means anything, but I am you know, I am leaning

1680
01:21:41,360 --> 01:21:43,680
Speaker 6: strongly towards the defensive side of the ball, and that

1681
01:21:43,920 --> 01:21:46,760
Speaker 6: is a sweet spot for edge and off ball linebackers

1682
01:21:46,840 --> 01:21:49,040
Speaker 6: in this draft. So that's where I'm looking with Cleveland.

1683
01:21:49,439 --> 01:21:53,400
Speaker 6: With Indianapolis, it really could go in several directions. I

1684
01:21:53,439 --> 01:21:55,640
Speaker 6: could see them going with an offensive tackle there. They

1685
01:21:55,760 --> 01:21:59,320
Speaker 6: certainly need an offensive tackle in this instance, and then

1686
01:21:59,360 --> 01:22:01,360
Speaker 6: I should I should say I could also see them

1687
01:22:01,439 --> 01:22:04,479
Speaker 6: going with an edge defender there. But in this instance,

1688
01:22:04,840 --> 01:22:08,960
Speaker 6: with Caleb Farley slipping down the draft board, I just

1689
01:22:09,040 --> 01:22:12,000
Speaker 6: had them, you know, selecting a player of value at

1690
01:22:12,040 --> 01:22:16,280
Speaker 6: a position of a little bit of need. So I

1691
01:22:16,360 --> 01:22:19,479
Speaker 6: can definitely see how the Colts do something different. And

1692
01:22:19,640 --> 01:22:22,559
Speaker 6: at this point we're talking about picks number twenty six

1693
01:22:22,640 --> 01:22:26,160
Speaker 6: and number twenty seven. I mean, you know, ten percent

1694
01:22:26,320 --> 01:22:28,479
Speaker 6: chance I get either one of these, right, you know,

1695
01:22:28,800 --> 01:22:31,200
Speaker 6: like it's it's not likely to happen this late in

1696
01:22:31,400 --> 01:22:31,800
Speaker 6: round one.

1697
01:22:32,800 --> 01:22:34,479
Speaker 4: Hey, hey, free man, I got to jump in real

1698
01:22:34,560 --> 01:22:35,840
Speaker 4: quick and ask you a question.

1699
01:22:36,040 --> 01:22:38,280
Speaker 5: You know what I know last year one of my

1700
01:22:38,400 --> 01:22:40,640
Speaker 5: favorite things about a draft was, you know, kind of

1701
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:43,680
Speaker 5: figuring out which wide receiver would go first. And I

1702
01:22:43,800 --> 01:22:45,880
Speaker 5: know you were on Henry Rugg from the jump, and

1703
01:22:46,600 --> 01:22:49,640
Speaker 5: I see a pretty interesting line with Jamar Chase and

1704
01:22:49,800 --> 01:22:52,680
Speaker 5: he's minus six hundred or something like that to be

1705
01:22:52,720 --> 01:22:55,400
Speaker 5: the first wide receiver, taking Jalen Waddo's like plus six

1706
01:22:55,520 --> 01:22:59,160
Speaker 5: hundred and DeVonta Smith is It's plus seven hundred.

1707
01:22:59,720 --> 01:23:01,920
Speaker 4: What your thoughts on how that plays out? Do you

1708
01:23:02,000 --> 01:23:04,120
Speaker 4: think the market is overvaluing Chase a little bit?

1709
01:23:05,240 --> 01:23:09,160
Speaker 6: I don't actually, And you know, if we had seen

1710
01:23:09,240 --> 01:23:12,400
Speaker 6: Jalen Waddle run at his pro day, it would maybe

1711
01:23:12,479 --> 01:23:14,680
Speaker 6: be a little bit different because I think he's not

1712
01:23:14,920 --> 01:23:18,559
Speaker 6: Henry Ruggs quite in his speed, but pretty darn close.

1713
01:23:19,040 --> 01:23:21,880
Speaker 6: And we have seen the league in the past five

1714
01:23:21,960 --> 01:23:26,519
Speaker 6: years really favor speed merchants in the first round, especially

1715
01:23:26,680 --> 01:23:29,120
Speaker 6: high in the first round. But you know, Jamar Chase

1716
01:23:29,200 --> 01:23:32,080
Speaker 6: did well at his pro day and in literally every

1717
01:23:32,160 --> 01:23:35,600
Speaker 6: single sharp mock. At this point, Jamar Chase is the

1718
01:23:35,720 --> 01:23:39,599
Speaker 6: number one wide receiver. He's not slipping past pick seven

1719
01:23:39,960 --> 01:23:43,000
Speaker 6: to the Lions. And I mean I was on him

1720
01:23:43,120 --> 01:23:45,800
Speaker 6: at minus one forty, I was on him again at

1721
01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:48,360
Speaker 6: minus two hundred. I was not in again at minus

1722
01:23:48,400 --> 01:23:50,800
Speaker 6: three hundred, you know, And like depending on the book

1723
01:23:50,840 --> 01:23:52,360
Speaker 6: that you're looking at, you know, there are lots of

1724
01:23:52,400 --> 01:23:56,360
Speaker 6: ways this could go. But Jamar Chase, I mean, even

1725
01:23:56,400 --> 01:23:59,560
Speaker 6: at minus six hundred ish, I'm not gonna say, you know,

1726
01:23:59,720 --> 01:24:03,559
Speaker 6: go that's at minus six hundred. But like the implied

1727
01:24:03,600 --> 01:24:07,200
Speaker 6: odds probably still don't match up with the probability because

1728
01:24:07,200 --> 01:24:09,200
Speaker 6: there's a good chance that he ends up going to

1729
01:24:09,360 --> 01:24:12,639
Speaker 6: Cincinnati at number five, and I just don't see something

1730
01:24:12,760 --> 01:24:15,320
Speaker 6: like that in the range of outcomes for either Jalen

1731
01:24:15,360 --> 01:24:18,880
Speaker 6: Wattle or DeVante Smith. But I should say if it

1732
01:24:19,080 --> 01:24:22,599
Speaker 6: is someone other than Chase, it's got to be Waddle.

1733
01:24:23,040 --> 01:24:25,519
Speaker 6: I think Wattle has the clear edge over Smith.

1734
01:24:26,040 --> 01:24:28,719
Speaker 5: And real quick, do you think Kyle Pitts goes before

1735
01:24:28,920 --> 01:24:30,000
Speaker 5: any of the wide receivers?

1736
01:24:31,920 --> 01:24:32,880
Speaker 4: So that's the real question.

1737
01:24:32,960 --> 01:24:35,400
Speaker 6: What happens at number four with Atlanta. I do not

1738
01:24:35,520 --> 01:24:37,320
Speaker 6: think Atlanta is taking a quarterback.

1739
01:24:38,360 --> 01:24:39,679
Speaker 2: With Matt Ryan there.

1740
01:24:39,680 --> 01:24:42,760
Speaker 6: Justin fields potentially could go number four if a team

1741
01:24:42,880 --> 01:24:46,280
Speaker 6: trades up, But if Atlanta stays there, I think they

1742
01:24:46,360 --> 01:24:49,040
Speaker 6: take Kyle Pitts. Just to kind of put some perspective

1743
01:24:49,080 --> 01:24:52,360
Speaker 6: on this. You know, people talk about generational talent. That

1744
01:24:52,479 --> 01:24:55,160
Speaker 6: phrase gets used way too much, but with Kyle Pitts,

1745
01:24:55,400 --> 01:24:59,520
Speaker 6: I think it actually does apply. He has the combination

1746
01:24:59,840 --> 01:25:04,040
Speaker 6: of athleticism in production that we've never seen at the

1747
01:25:04,120 --> 01:25:07,360
Speaker 6: tight end position. You know, Mike Ditka, I still think

1748
01:25:07,520 --> 01:25:11,240
Speaker 6: probably the greatest tight end in NFL history. He's the

1749
01:25:11,400 --> 01:25:14,559
Speaker 6: highest tight end selected in NFL history. He went number

1750
01:25:14,640 --> 01:25:17,200
Speaker 6: five and then as a rookie at that point he

1751
01:25:17,360 --> 01:25:20,599
Speaker 6: had the greatest tight end season that anyone had ever had.

1752
01:25:21,400 --> 01:25:23,599
Speaker 6: And we're talking about Kyle Pitts as someone who might

1753
01:25:23,680 --> 01:25:25,920
Speaker 6: be better than that, with a chance to go higher

1754
01:25:26,120 --> 01:25:29,320
Speaker 6: than Mike Ditka, you know, going number four overall. But

1755
01:25:29,680 --> 01:25:34,040
Speaker 6: I think it's warranted. With his really unbelievable combination of

1756
01:25:34,160 --> 01:25:37,200
Speaker 6: athleticism and production. That's just something we've never seen a

1757
01:25:37,280 --> 01:25:37,680
Speaker 6: tight end.

1758
01:25:38,800 --> 01:25:41,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm the I'm the what what was the president

1759
01:25:41,560 --> 01:25:44,320
Speaker 2: of the Kyle Pitts fan club before? But before he

1760
01:25:44,360 --> 01:25:48,800
Speaker 2: got the Florida but Pennsylvania guy. But that's that's a show.

1761
01:25:48,800 --> 01:25:50,840
Speaker 2: And I completely agree. Let's throw pits out. Let's throw

1762
01:25:50,840 --> 01:25:53,360
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks out. So we obviously know quarterbacks will have

1763
01:25:53,400 --> 01:25:56,320
Speaker 2: a big impact on the success the team. You are

1764
01:25:56,439 --> 01:25:59,640
Speaker 2: now looking into these players, I assume you have some

1765
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:02,439
Speaker 2: I don't know, hot takes or you fall in love

1766
01:26:02,520 --> 01:26:06,960
Speaker 2: with some Which team and potential selection do you think

1767
01:26:07,240 --> 01:26:10,679
Speaker 2: would improve that said team the most in the first

1768
01:26:10,800 --> 01:26:12,759
Speaker 2: round outside of a quarterback in safe fits?

1769
01:26:15,000 --> 01:26:17,599
Speaker 6: You know, I don't know if I have any really

1770
01:26:18,280 --> 01:26:23,120
Speaker 6: strong takes on something like this, but think of Kansas City.

1771
01:26:23,280 --> 01:26:26,200
Speaker 6: They've got to do something with their offensive line and

1772
01:26:26,560 --> 01:26:29,920
Speaker 6: whether that's them taking a tackle, whether that's them going

1773
01:26:30,080 --> 01:26:34,080
Speaker 6: with the guard, you know, potentially center Landon Dickerson, who

1774
01:26:34,400 --> 01:26:36,439
Speaker 6: you know is an All American. He's coming off of

1775
01:26:36,479 --> 01:26:39,719
Speaker 6: an injury. But they have to do something to improve

1776
01:26:39,760 --> 01:26:42,719
Speaker 6: their offensive line. And even if it's just one impact

1777
01:26:42,880 --> 01:26:46,280
Speaker 6: offensive lineman that they can add at pick number thirty one,

1778
01:26:46,600 --> 01:26:49,360
Speaker 6: that's where I have them going with Landon Dickerson in

1779
01:26:49,479 --> 01:26:53,880
Speaker 6: my most recent mock. Previously i'd mocked them with Alex Leatherwood,

1780
01:26:54,280 --> 01:26:56,280
Speaker 6: who you know is kind of on the border of

1781
01:26:56,400 --> 01:27:00,640
Speaker 6: round one. Also, you know Alabama offensive tackle, you know,

1782
01:27:01,040 --> 01:27:03,920
Speaker 6: unanimous All American last year. But whatever it is that

1783
01:27:04,000 --> 01:27:08,400
Speaker 6: they do, I think they need to address the offensive line,

1784
01:27:08,520 --> 01:27:11,960
Speaker 6: and if they can just get one good offensive lineman

1785
01:27:12,120 --> 01:27:15,200
Speaker 6: in there, with the additions that they've made in free agency,

1786
01:27:15,720 --> 01:27:17,800
Speaker 6: I think they could be you know, like right back

1787
01:27:17,880 --> 01:27:20,800
Speaker 6: in it as a team that is, you know, a

1788
01:27:20,920 --> 01:27:23,479
Speaker 6: super Bowl favorite as the season starts.

1789
01:27:24,760 --> 01:27:28,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not a bad answer. I also would argue,

1790
01:27:28,360 --> 01:27:32,160
Speaker 2: we talked about this earlier in the show with by Ravens.

1791
01:27:32,200 --> 01:27:33,800
Speaker 2: I think that if they can find a I mean,

1792
01:27:33,840 --> 01:27:36,760
Speaker 2: they have such a significant weakness at the edge and

1793
01:27:36,920 --> 01:27:41,320
Speaker 2: wide receiver, if they can find Peter Bulwer Terrell Suggs,

1794
01:27:41,360 --> 01:27:43,360
Speaker 2: both first round draft picks Rookie of the years as

1795
01:27:43,479 --> 01:27:46,760
Speaker 2: edge players way back in the day. I don't think

1796
01:27:46,760 --> 01:27:50,040
Speaker 2: they've ever had a successful wide receiver they've drafted. But

1797
01:27:50,840 --> 01:27:52,800
Speaker 2: if they can find a wide receiver that comes in

1798
01:27:52,880 --> 01:27:55,400
Speaker 2: as the number one as a rookie tough ask, or

1799
01:27:55,840 --> 01:27:58,920
Speaker 2: you know, a rookie of the year caliber type edge

1800
01:27:58,960 --> 01:28:02,760
Speaker 2: player that will address to one of their main weaknesses

1801
01:28:03,120 --> 01:28:04,080
Speaker 2: on each side of the ball.

1802
01:28:04,880 --> 01:28:08,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, I hear that definitely. And you mentioned the two

1803
01:28:08,240 --> 01:28:11,080
Speaker 6: positions edge and wide receiver. Those are the two positions

1804
01:28:11,320 --> 01:28:14,120
Speaker 6: most frequently mocked to the Ravens, and it makes sense.

1805
01:28:14,200 --> 01:28:16,639
Speaker 6: In my most recent mock, I have Gregory Russo out

1806
01:28:16,680 --> 01:28:19,599
Speaker 6: of Miami as the guy going to the Ravens at

1807
01:28:19,680 --> 01:28:23,479
Speaker 6: number twenty seven. I mean, he has significant all Pro potential.

1808
01:28:23,600 --> 01:28:26,599
Speaker 6: I think he's sliding down the draft board a little

1809
01:28:26,640 --> 01:28:29,120
Speaker 6: bit because of his pro day and he opted.

1810
01:28:28,880 --> 01:28:29,599
Speaker 2: Out of the season.

1811
01:28:30,560 --> 01:28:33,719
Speaker 6: So maybe they get fantastic value at number twenty seven

1812
01:28:33,880 --> 01:28:36,559
Speaker 6: with a high potential guy who's falling down the board.

1813
01:28:37,560 --> 01:28:39,160
Speaker 2: Before we let you go, anything you want to add

1814
01:28:39,280 --> 01:28:39,799
Speaker 2: for them.

1815
01:28:40,040 --> 01:28:43,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, So two bets that catch my eye right now.

1816
01:28:43,800 --> 01:28:46,639
Speaker 6: The number of wide receivers to go in round one,

1817
01:28:47,479 --> 01:28:50,200
Speaker 6: that number is four and a half across the industry.

1818
01:28:50,800 --> 01:28:54,880
Speaker 6: And we have three guys who are total locks, Jamar Chase,

1819
01:28:55,479 --> 01:28:58,120
Speaker 6: then obviously Devonte Smith and Jaylen Waddle. You have two

1820
01:28:58,240 --> 01:29:01,120
Speaker 6: guys who are pretty close to coin flips to make

1821
01:29:01,160 --> 01:29:04,400
Speaker 6: it into round one, and Rashad Bateman and Cadarius Tony.

1822
01:29:04,680 --> 01:29:07,240
Speaker 6: And then you have three more guys after that, each

1823
01:29:07,320 --> 01:29:10,000
Speaker 6: of whom have a pretty decent chance, not fifty percent,

1824
01:29:10,080 --> 01:29:12,799
Speaker 6: but you know, anywhere from like twenty five to forty

1825
01:29:12,840 --> 01:29:16,120
Speaker 6: percent chance of getting in round one. And Tarras Marshall,

1826
01:29:16,320 --> 01:29:19,120
Speaker 6: Elijah Moore, and Rondell Moore. So you put all of

1827
01:29:19,200 --> 01:29:21,200
Speaker 6: those guys together and I think we have a pretty

1828
01:29:21,240 --> 01:29:24,280
Speaker 6: good chance of going over four and a half wide

1829
01:29:24,320 --> 01:29:27,040
Speaker 6: receivers in round one. I think five is a pretty

1830
01:29:27,080 --> 01:29:30,280
Speaker 6: good number. I could really even see six. I have

1831
01:29:30,520 --> 01:29:33,960
Speaker 6: five going in my most recent mock, but Terras Marshall

1832
01:29:34,120 --> 01:29:36,280
Speaker 6: is right on the borderline. I could see how he

1833
01:29:36,400 --> 01:29:39,360
Speaker 6: gets in and makes it six. And then one other

1834
01:29:39,479 --> 01:29:43,120
Speaker 6: guy who's caught my eye, Patrick Sirtan, you know, cornerback

1835
01:29:43,240 --> 01:29:47,120
Speaker 6: out of Alabama. His over under right now, is ten

1836
01:29:47,200 --> 01:29:50,120
Speaker 6: and a half, and I really think the under is

1837
01:29:50,200 --> 01:29:54,160
Speaker 6: a pretty good bet there. He has in almost every

1838
01:29:54,280 --> 01:29:57,320
Speaker 6: mock draft I've seen, he hasn't fallen past the Cowboys

1839
01:29:57,400 --> 01:30:00,559
Speaker 6: at number ten, and so let's cutting it pretty close

1840
01:30:00,760 --> 01:30:03,360
Speaker 6: to the over under of ten and a half. But

1841
01:30:03,640 --> 01:30:05,559
Speaker 6: I mean, you can see how if things don't work out,

1842
01:30:05,640 --> 01:30:08,880
Speaker 6: maybe he goes through the Broncos at number nine. You know,

1843
01:30:09,360 --> 01:30:12,000
Speaker 6: so I like him With ten and a half as

1844
01:30:12,040 --> 01:30:14,240
Speaker 6: the over under, I would take the under there.

1845
01:30:14,800 --> 01:30:17,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, jigs and certain I can see that all Alabama

1846
01:30:17,960 --> 01:30:21,080
Speaker 2: cornerback duo in Dallas. Speaking of corners, is there, what

1847
01:30:21,240 --> 01:30:24,320
Speaker 2: is the number on number of corners in the first round,

1848
01:30:24,360 --> 01:30:26,120
Speaker 2: Because you know, this is a passing league now, the

1849
01:30:26,200 --> 01:30:29,639
Speaker 2: importance of wide receivers, edge rushers, and corners just grows

1850
01:30:29,680 --> 01:30:32,640
Speaker 2: with each passing year. I feel like you see, and

1851
01:30:32,760 --> 01:30:34,800
Speaker 2: this is completely anecdotal. I should look into it, but

1852
01:30:35,240 --> 01:30:37,560
Speaker 2: the Raiders have reached a couple times on corners, and

1853
01:30:37,640 --> 01:30:40,599
Speaker 2: you see just reaches on corners and to your point,

1854
01:30:40,720 --> 01:30:42,920
Speaker 2: someone could come up and reach on a receiver. It's

1855
01:30:42,960 --> 01:30:47,160
Speaker 2: just such an important position in today's league. Any thoughts

1856
01:30:47,200 --> 01:30:49,559
Speaker 2: on the number of corners that go in the first round.

1857
01:30:50,360 --> 01:30:53,479
Speaker 6: This is a great question. I would want to look

1858
01:30:53,560 --> 01:30:55,760
Speaker 6: at it a little bit more. But so four and

1859
01:30:55,800 --> 01:30:58,639
Speaker 6: a half is the number that is out there. Certain

1860
01:30:59,000 --> 01:31:04,000
Speaker 6: is a lock. Horn is a lock. Greg Newsom the

1861
01:31:04,080 --> 01:31:07,840
Speaker 6: second out of Northwestern, I think he's pretty close to

1862
01:31:08,000 --> 01:31:11,000
Speaker 6: a lock at this point. Now one of the big

1863
01:31:11,120 --> 01:31:14,720
Speaker 6: questions is Caleb Farley, who you know, even let's say,

1864
01:31:14,800 --> 01:31:17,320
Speaker 6: like a month ago, was looking pretty strong to be

1865
01:31:17,400 --> 01:31:19,439
Speaker 6: a top ten pick, and then he had the back

1866
01:31:19,520 --> 01:31:22,120
Speaker 6: surgery and now he is falling down draft boards. But

1867
01:31:22,240 --> 01:31:25,280
Speaker 6: let's even assume that he makes it into the first round,

1868
01:31:25,800 --> 01:31:30,240
Speaker 6: that's four cornerbacks. You still have to find another guy

1869
01:31:30,720 --> 01:31:34,559
Speaker 6: who has a reasonable chance of getting in round one

1870
01:31:35,080 --> 01:31:36,639
Speaker 6: to get over four and a half.

1871
01:31:37,280 --> 01:31:38,200
Speaker 2: And I mean.

1872
01:31:38,120 --> 01:31:42,560
Speaker 6: It's close kind of with a Sante Samuel Junior, he

1873
01:31:42,640 --> 01:31:44,800
Speaker 6: would be the fifth one, I think with a real

1874
01:31:44,920 --> 01:31:48,719
Speaker 6: chance to make it in maybe Tyson Campbell or Eric Stokes,

1875
01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:51,760
Speaker 6: both those guys coming out of Georgia. But in the

1876
01:31:51,880 --> 01:31:55,560
Speaker 6: majority of drafts I'm seeing four is the number that

1877
01:31:55,720 --> 01:31:59,360
Speaker 6: we seem to be landing on with cornerbacks. So I'm

1878
01:31:59,439 --> 01:32:01,840
Speaker 6: leaning depending on the juice, of course, but I would

1879
01:32:02,000 --> 01:32:05,360
Speaker 6: strongly lean towards under four and a half because remember,

1880
01:32:05,720 --> 01:32:08,280
Speaker 6: there's a decent chance that Caleb Farley falls out of

1881
01:32:08,360 --> 01:32:09,000
Speaker 6: the first round.

1882
01:32:09,040 --> 01:32:12,439
Speaker 2: Altogether fair enough, maybe the right, but the wild card

1883
01:32:12,520 --> 01:32:14,439
Speaker 2: is the Raiders at seventeen, taking the corner that no

1884
01:32:14,479 --> 01:32:17,040
Speaker 2: one has in the first five rounds. But of course,

1885
01:32:17,200 --> 01:32:20,120
Speaker 2: all right, we appreciate your time, good stuff. As always,

1886
01:32:20,280 --> 01:32:23,080
Speaker 2: you can check Freedman's updated mock draft on Action network

1887
01:32:23,120 --> 01:32:25,000
Speaker 2: dot com, the Action Network aap you can find him

1888
01:32:25,400 --> 01:32:28,840
Speaker 2: on Twitter at matt Fdarcle. Appreciate you grinding man, love

1889
01:32:28,920 --> 01:32:30,800
Speaker 2: the stuff and look forward to the draft.

1890
01:32:31,040 --> 01:32:33,960
Speaker 5: Thanks guys again, don't forget to check out Matthew Friedman's

1891
01:32:34,479 --> 01:32:37,400
Speaker 5: NFL Draft content also at actionetwork dot com, and be

1892
01:32:37,479 --> 01:32:40,439
Speaker 5: sure to download the Action Network app, the best sports

1893
01:32:40,479 --> 01:32:43,000
Speaker 5: ab out there. You guys can check out my win

1894
01:32:43,040 --> 01:32:46,280
Speaker 5: totals pieces up at actionnetwork dot com right now, and

1895
01:32:46,360 --> 01:32:49,880
Speaker 5: don't forget. Coming up soon on the Action Network podcast,

1896
01:32:50,040 --> 01:32:55,639
Speaker 5: we'll have our annual Academy Awards betting preview, a special

1897
01:32:55,720 --> 01:33:01,360
Speaker 5: Kentucky Derby episode, as well as an NFL Draft betting spectacular.

1898
01:33:01,800 --> 01:33:05,200
Speaker 5: So check out the pod the rest of April for

1899
01:33:05,520 --> 01:33:11,320
Speaker 5: more great episodes. Really excited about that OSCARS podcast and

1900
01:33:11,439 --> 01:33:13,040
Speaker 5: we'll be back, let's get this money.

1901
01:33:29,200 --> 01:33:30,240
Speaker 3: We're finished talking.