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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing in Joe. We're saying it's a catch touchdown.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kaba you want to.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. This

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Speaker 4: is your NFL Week one Best Bets episode. Yes, we

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Speaker 4: have made it to Week one in the National Football League.

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Speaker 4: I'm your host today, Brendan Glasheen, joined by three Action

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Speaker 4: Network experts who will be going through their three favorite

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Speaker 4: bets each for this weekend's action We've got Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 4: Jill Gallant.

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Speaker 5: And Luke swayn Sterious Man no longer a.

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Speaker 4: Mystery behind Vegas refund one of Twitter's most popular NFL picks.

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Speaker 3: Account's great to have Luke joining us.

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Speaker 4: As a reminder, you can use the Action Network app

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Speaker 4: to follow today's picks and all the pods picks all

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Speaker 4: week long. Just use the app follow feature and search

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Speaker 4: Action Network NFL picks and it will bring you straight

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Speaker 4: to it. All right, First up, before we get going,

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Speaker 4: get the juices flowing a bit.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna go around the horn.

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Speaker 4: In one sentence, summarize this Sunday Slate, Brandon Anderson go.

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Speaker 6: It is all about the division underdogs. We got six

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Speaker 6: division games in Week one underdogs. We'll be ready for

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Speaker 6: the big games.

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Speaker 3: Ten home dogs this weekend. Ten. How about you, Jill.

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Speaker 2: Betting fomo is real. It's been over two hundred days

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Speaker 2: since we've been betting on the NFL. The fact that

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Speaker 2: we're just now getting to this Sunday, I am so

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Speaker 2: pumped about it and it's just been so long. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: betting fomo very real.

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Speaker 3: All right, Luke, what you got for us is.

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Speaker 1: The most underdogs at home week. Want It's either a

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Speaker 1: trap or huge money.

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Speaker 4: The most in an opening week in the NFL since

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Speaker 4: the league moved to a sixteen game.

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Speaker 3: Schedule in nineteen seventy eight.

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Speaker 4: That's how far you got to go back stat courtesy

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Speaker 4: of Evan Abrams here at action. So, Luke, your hunch

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Speaker 4: is correct. First best bet of the day will come

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Speaker 4: from Brandon Anderson first, though, as a reminder, our experts

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Speaker 4: have not consulted with one another before we started. Our

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Speaker 4: record for this episode so picks may overlap picks. Main

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Speaker 4: contradict we will find out. Now it's every man for

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Speaker 4: himself on these best bets. Brandon Anderson. Hit us with

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Speaker 4: your first pick.

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Speaker 6: Please, all right, let's get down and dirty and ugly

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Speaker 6: it up. With this first pick. We're going with the

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Speaker 6: Houston Texans plus seven and a half against the Indianapolis Colts.

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Speaker 6: I told you was about the Division underdogs. We're starting

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Speaker 6: with one right away. Look, Houston's roster is rough, but

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Speaker 6: love Smith. I don't know about his long term hope there,

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Speaker 6: but he's a floor raiser. He can get you get

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Speaker 6: the best out of this veteran guys. The Colts are

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Speaker 6: moving to new defense under Gus Bradley. I think Indianapolis

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Speaker 6: is more about floor than a huge ceiling. They're not

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Speaker 6: really a team built to blow teams out. But really,

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Speaker 6: this is not about the teams. This is about the number.

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Speaker 6: This is about the trends. So let me hit you

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Speaker 6: with a whole bunch of Transform Action Labs love it.

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Speaker 6: I mentioned the Division Underdogs angle. Since two thousand and five,

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Speaker 6: in Action Labs Division underdogs in Week one have covered

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Speaker 6: the spread sixty percent of the time. Since twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 6: they're twenty nine to nine to one against the spread.

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Speaker 6: That is a seventy six percent cover rate. Division underdogs

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Speaker 6: week one, we got more teams that missed the playoffs

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Speaker 6: last year in Week one cover fifty six percent of

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Speaker 6: the time, up to fifty nine percent since twenty eleven.

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Speaker 6: Teams that won four to six games last year that

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Speaker 6: are underdogs now seventy thirty four and two against the spread.

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Speaker 6: That's covering two thirds of the time. And if this

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Speaker 6: line creeps back up it was at eight eight and

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Speaker 6: a half earlier in the week. We got even better

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Speaker 6: trends that way.

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Speaker 2: But there's more. There's always more.

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Speaker 6: As I was looking at trends here, everything screams fade.

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Speaker 6: The Colts. Frank Reich has coached four years with the Colts.

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Speaker 6: He has never won in Week one. He's never covered

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Speaker 6: in Week one. In fact, the Colts are the worst

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Speaker 6: Week one team in football in our system. Since two

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Speaker 6: thousand and five. They are four twelve and one against

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Speaker 6: the spread. They have not covered at any point in

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Speaker 6: the last seven seasons. And Matt Ryan, who wasn't with

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Speaker 6: the Colts for any of those games, you may recall,

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Speaker 6: is the least profitable week one quarterback in our system

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Speaker 6: at Action Labs, He's five and nine against the spread.

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Speaker 6: He two has failed to cover six in a row.

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Speaker 6: He's lost four in a row, including three times as

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Speaker 6: a favorite. Everything says the Colts are overvalued here, I'm

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Speaker 6: getting ugly. First pick of the year, Houston Texans plus

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Speaker 6: seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: Texans are favored by more than a touchdown the Jets

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Speaker 4: and Bears or other teams that fit that bill. In

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Speaker 4: the last fifteen years, five teams have been underdogs by

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Speaker 4: more than a touchdown at home. May I add and

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Speaker 4: they are zero to five straight up, but five and

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Speaker 4: zero against the spread.

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Speaker 1: I do want to add to that. You can pick

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Speaker 1: certain trends and hate on trends. I totally get that.

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Speaker 1: Season openers are a little bit different because it really

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Speaker 1: is the same scenario every single time. Each team has

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Speaker 1: the same amount of time to prep. Usually they're going

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Speaker 1: in healthy. The trends on week one mean more to

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Speaker 1: me than they do in any other week.

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Speaker 3: Luke Vegas refund, You're ready to go. What do you have?

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Speaker 1: So my first one is gonna be Browns plus one

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Speaker 1: and a half, which to me is just the wrong

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Speaker 1: team's favored you got a Baker Mayfield the starting for

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Speaker 1: the Panthers against his old team, of course, and if

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Speaker 1: let's just say Deshaun Watson was starting for this team.

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Speaker 1: On paper, it's the top five rotster in the entire league.

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Speaker 1: It should be pick them. Browns should be favored. In

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Speaker 1: my opinion, don't see Baker Mayfield getting a lot done

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Speaker 1: against his defense. Everyone is high on the Panthers, and

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Speaker 1: I think is really for like fantasy football reasons where

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Speaker 1: you got the DJ Moores and the Christian McCaffrey's, which

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Speaker 1: is just like pumping up their perception. There's zero positive

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Speaker 1: news really from the whole Deshaun Watson fiasco where everyone

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Speaker 1: I think is a little bit too low on the Browns.

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Speaker 1: This should be a pick 'm to may I'll take

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Speaker 1: the free one and a half money line, whatever you want.

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Speaker 4: Very good and according to the Action app, all the

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Speaker 4: money coming in Brandon Anderson on Carolina right now.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I got another staff for you that likes the

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Speaker 6: Browns here too. Week one road underdogs of under three

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Speaker 6: points like the Browns are in the last decade are

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Speaker 6: eighteen and five against the spread. I think this is

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Speaker 6: a good script for Cleveland Browns. Yeah, one hundred percent.

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Speaker 4: Jill Galant, how about your first pick? You've been quiet,

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Speaker 4: but I feel like you're ready to give us some smoke.

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Speaker 2: I was just in suspending my belief of Brandon being

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Speaker 2: super on Bred and with fading the Colts. Again, for

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Speaker 2: anybody who's listening to the Action Network podcast, Brandon is

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Speaker 2: very low on the Colts. So for my first pick,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take Jalen Hurts over forty six and

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Speaker 2: a half rushing yards versus the Lions. So Hurts rushing

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Speaker 2: yards was my It was pretty much one of my

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Speaker 2: go to props. Last year. He taught forty seven yards

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Speaker 2: or more in nine to fifteen games last year. He

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Speaker 2: also played against a very similar Lions squad in Week

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Speaker 2: eight last year, seventy one yards on seven carries. The

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Speaker 2: Lions closed last season ranking twenty ninth and rushing yards

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Speaker 2: allowed per game last year. Now, this number, it's a

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Speaker 2: little bit higher than we're used to getting because we

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Speaker 2: would get it in the low forties last year. But

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Speaker 2: I feel like, as long as it's below fifty yards,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to keep riding this play. Because last season

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Speaker 2: he was on a six game stretch where he was

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Speaker 2: averaging like fifty six point four rushing yards per game.

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Speaker 2: That was from Week seven to Week twelve, and the

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Speaker 2: books had to up his prop line up to about

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Speaker 2: forty nine and a half for the remainder of the season.

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Speaker 2: And after that he didn't actually get over that line

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Speaker 2: because he deal with an ankle will injury the remainder

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Speaker 2: of the season, never really top that number again. But

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Speaker 2: I think the ability is still there. He's healed, he's

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Speaker 2: healthy and hurts let all quarterbacks and rushing attempts last

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Speaker 2: year fourth and yards per carry. He's gonna call his

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Speaker 2: number a lot, and I feel like forty six and

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Speaker 2: a half that's a sweet spot number. As long as

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Speaker 2: it's below fifty, I'm going to be taking the over

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Speaker 2: every time.

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Speaker 4: All right, Second pick time for the crew, Brandon, Jill

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Speaker 4: and Luke. We'll start with Brandon Anderson. Your second pick

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Speaker 4: for Week one, please.

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Speaker 6: Well, I was going to save this one per third,

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Speaker 6: but I'm going right back to that same game and

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Speaker 6: I am backing the Eagles. I'm going to take the

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Speaker 6: Eagles minus three and a half on the road in Detroit.

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Speaker 6: This one's not about trends. This is backing my preseason

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Speaker 6: reads for me. Week one. If you don't got it,

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Speaker 6: if you don't have the trend that you want, you

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Speaker 6: just have to say, Okay, we've done all the work.

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Speaker 6: Like Luke said, we know what the team is. Everyone

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Speaker 6: comes in on the same page.

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Speaker 2: Who do you like?

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Speaker 6: Who do you want to fade? And I like the

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Speaker 6: Eagles and I want to fade the Lions. Philadelphia I

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Speaker 6: think had a perfect offseason. Aj Brown come in receiver,

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Speaker 6: the big weapon to add to the rushing attack. On defense,

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Speaker 6: I think this could be a top five defense. James Bradbury,

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Speaker 6: Hassan Reddick, big additions, Jordan Davis I think will be

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Speaker 6: a huge first round pick addition, but no pun intended.

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Speaker 6: The dude is massive and he's going to eat up

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Speaker 6: guys on the line. The Eagles have the best trenches

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Speaker 6: in the NFL. Offense for sure, maybe defense two with

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Speaker 6: their depth. I think it's the best non quarterback roster

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Speaker 6: in the NFL, which, you know, a bit of a

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Speaker 6: backhanded compliment. We'll see what Jalen Hurts can do this year.

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Speaker 6: But is a very good team. The Lions, eh, I

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Speaker 6: think we're confusing improved with good. The Lions are improved.

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Speaker 6: The Lions aren't good yet. Particularly defensively. This is my

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Speaker 6: worst defense in the league. They are below average or

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Speaker 6: bad at every position.

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Speaker 2: You spoil this one for me a little bit, Brandon.

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Speaker 6: But that game last year before the Eagles play the Lions,

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Speaker 6: they started out pretty much just off our radar. They're

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Speaker 6: two and five, they're twenty four offensive DVA. That game

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Speaker 6: that you mentioned, they ran for forty six times two

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Speaker 6: hundred and thirty six yards. That's just disrespect. That's saying, look,

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Speaker 6: we don't need a game plan. We're just gonna run

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Speaker 6: it right at you. Hey, kneecaps, We're coming for you,

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Speaker 6: running out your gut, smash mouth, coming for you, and

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Speaker 6: the Lion's can do a thing about it. From that

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Speaker 6: game forward, the Eagles were sixth in offensive DVA the

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Speaker 6: rest of the season, forty four to six. They won

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Speaker 6: seven of their their nine games to end the year,

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Speaker 6: So I only we're getting forty four to six. The

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Speaker 6: Lions are better. This line is a spot where team

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Speaker 6: is gonna be above a touchdown. If it was a

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Speaker 6: month from now, I think the Eagles will be coasting.

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Speaker 6: The Lions will get a reality check post hard knocks.

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Speaker 1: I like Philly like right now, I'm looking at like

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Speaker 1: the betting splits and it's like basically fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 1: If like hard Knocks hadn't happened, he would totally be

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Speaker 1: like seventy percent on Philly underdogs trend for hard Knocks.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we can pull that in that labs Luke,

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Speaker 1: what's your second pick for US Giants plus five and

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Speaker 1: a half? This is definitely one that I might wait

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Speaker 1: a little until like Sunday, because like six is definitely

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Speaker 1: that like number that I really want. I bet this

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Speaker 1: months ago, still like it a five and a half.

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Speaker 1: In terms of like teams going in opposite directions, it's

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Speaker 1: like true like the Giants, the Titans are the Titans.

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Speaker 1: They definitely had a top five defense in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: but their offense is just a shell of what we're

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Speaker 1: going to be expecting in the past. Where offensive line

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Speaker 1: not very good. They lost their alphon aj Brown Tannehill.

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Speaker 1: Jury's out where the Giants cannot go understated. And I'm

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Speaker 1: someone who like doesn't really look to criticize coaching because

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Speaker 1: I'm not a coach, I haven't been in the league

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Speaker 1: for thirty years, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: But it cannot go understated.

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Speaker 1: How bad Joe Judge and company were last year, and

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Speaker 1: Brian Dable being the head coach now is like a

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Speaker 1: genuine upgrade. And I'm not comparing the two. Daniel Jones

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Speaker 1: has a skill set of shalon like a poor man's.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say this is way too many points for

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Speaker 1: a Giants team that I'm high on. I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are high on that I respect as well,

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Speaker 1: and I just don't see how the Titans can have this.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Joe Galot, you had a total for us for

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Speaker 4: your first pick, what do you got for your second pick?

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Speaker 2: I hate to use the term trap bet well, honestly,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take the bait on this one. I'm

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Speaker 2: taking Naji Harris over three and a half receptions versus

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Speaker 2: the Bengals. That's at plus one zh five. So obviously

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Speaker 2: rookie running back going into a second year, pretty good

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Speaker 2: first year. Seventy four receptions last year, that was a

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Speaker 2: season leader for all running backs. And again, if even

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Speaker 2: if you just did the simple math of seventy four

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Speaker 2: catches by seventeen games, it still works out to four

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Speaker 2: point three receptions per game. But I'm not just gonna

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Speaker 2: tell people just to bet it. On that. All you

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Speaker 2: have to do is really look at the Bengals defense Cincinnati,

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Speaker 2: despite their Cinderella run, they have some pretty clear flaws

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Speaker 2: and one of that is past catching running backs. So

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Speaker 2: the Bengals they ranked twenty eighth the receptions allowed to

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Speaker 2: running backs during the regular season last year during the

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Speaker 2: playoff run, like they allowed multiple running like running backs

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Speaker 2: that don't catch the ball like Josh Jacobs. They had

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Speaker 2: like three or more catches throughout the entire playoff run.

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Speaker 2: And not only that, Nagie Harris is likely going to

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Speaker 2: he has to have an even bigger role in this

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Speaker 2: offense now because Mitch Trubisky is the quarterback and he

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Speaker 2: has too many tendencies just to throw the ball in

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Speaker 2: the dirt. So I think quick little short passes similar

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Speaker 2: to kind of what Roethlisberger was doing last year. Also,

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Speaker 2: I mean, just to throw this out there, Harris had

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Speaker 2: a game last year again Cincinnati, where he had fourteen catches.

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Speaker 2: So just based on that volume alone five point five

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Speaker 2: targets per game last year, I'm going to take the

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Speaker 2: swing that he's going to have four receptions because I

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Speaker 2: think this is one reception line low. I think it

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Speaker 2: should actually be at four and a half, probably closer

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Speaker 2: to about plus one to twenty.

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Speaker 3: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 4: Now I would just also counter back. I think in

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Speaker 4: a way, Trubisky being the quarterback should help.

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Speaker 5: Big Ben was awful last year. Well, we'll see what

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Speaker 5: he's made of early on.

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Speaker 2: I don't have any response. I don't really want to

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Speaker 2: say anything PLAUSI about mis.

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Speaker 3: Had a boy. Don't want to be on record.

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Speaker 4: Fair enough, Okay, let's get to each of the guy's

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Speaker 4: final picks. We're going to do three each on this

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Speaker 4: on this particular episode each week. Brandon Anderson your third

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Speaker 4: best bet for week one.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm glad I switched up the order here because

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Speaker 6: Jale and I have good synergy. I'm staying in the

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Speaker 6: same game again, and I'm backing the underdog here. I'll

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Speaker 6: take the Steelers plus six and a half in Cincinnati.

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Speaker 6: Super Bowl Loser. Look, we know about the Super Bowl

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Speaker 6: Loser curse. Everyone talks about it. What you might not

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Speaker 6: know is it starts now. It starts immediately this century.

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Speaker 6: Teams that lost to Super Bowl only when nine and

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Speaker 6: thirteen in the opener four and eighteen against the spread

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Speaker 6: four and eighteen. That is terrible, and it tells us

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Speaker 6: what you think, which is, hey, that team was pretty

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Speaker 6: good last year.

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Speaker 2: They made a deep run.

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Speaker 6: Let's bet on that side, and we're boosting the line

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Speaker 6: a little bit. We love the Steelers in a raw

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Speaker 6: raw Mike Tomlin underdog spot.

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Speaker 7: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that

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Speaker 7: all the time. Like football is a game, our business

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Speaker 7: is winning. That's what the hell we pay to do.

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Speaker 6: Tomlin for his career forty five, twenty three and two

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Speaker 6: against the spread as an underdog. Now that trend is

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Speaker 6: a little stronger later in the year.

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Speaker 2: But here's one.

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Speaker 6: That's a little stronger now as a division underdog. Tomlin

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Speaker 6: is nineteen six and two against the spread, seventy six

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Speaker 6: percent cover rate. He's got a winning record straight up

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Speaker 6: as an underdog for his career and that is fifteen years.

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Speaker 6: So it has no small number thirty three percent ROI

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Speaker 6: to the money line if you just bet Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 6: underdog teams. And of course this is another one of

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Speaker 6: those division underdogs I mentioned. So all those same trends

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Speaker 6: apply here to the Bengals swept last season, but the

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Speaker 6: Steelers have won eleven out of fourteen in the rivalry,

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Speaker 6: so this is a team that knows how to play

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Speaker 6: the Bengals. The Steelers defense is healthy, and there's been

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Speaker 6: a lot of talk about the Bengals offensive line how

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Speaker 6: much it got better, but it's new. They're going to

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Speaker 6: have to take some time to get used to each other,

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Speaker 6: and they're gonna have to do it against TJ. A.

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Speaker 6: Watt and Cam Hay and that is a big test

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Speaker 6: out of the gate for a line that I think

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Speaker 6: is maybe a little overhyped. They might be fine, They're

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Speaker 6: not as bad as they were, but they're gonna get

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Speaker 6: a big test right away. The Bengals strength is their

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Speaker 6: passing attack. That's Pittsburgh's biggest strength on defense, the passing attack.

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Speaker 6: I think it helps offset that we got Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 6: against Zach Taylor as a huge coaching mismatch. For me,

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Speaker 6: I had this line something closer to Bengals minus four.

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Speaker 6: This is just way too many points. So I love

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Speaker 6: the Steelers as an underdog plus six and a half

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Speaker 6: on the road.

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Speaker 7: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

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Speaker 7: can make what do you guys quit today?

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's go to Luke's third pick.

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Speaker 1: I'm very low on the Patriots this year. And that's

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Speaker 1: coming from a Patriots fan. But when I look at

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Speaker 1: this line where they're three and a half point dogs

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Speaker 1: at Miami, it's just a disrespect. I haven't said anything

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Speaker 1: positive on the Patriots, like I'm literally like arguing against

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Speaker 1: myself right now, but at three and a half, like

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Speaker 1: you just you just have to play it. It's the Patriot.

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Speaker 1: There's so many unknown still with the Dolphins, specifically with

356
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Speaker 1: their quarterback, which is pretty important. Getting so much hype

357
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Speaker 1: from the Tyree kill like another like fantasy, like a

358
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Speaker 1: Guru team, where all of this perception of the Dolphins

359
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Speaker 1: is just growing. Where it was two and a half,

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Speaker 1: I want to say last week and now it's three

361
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Speaker 1: and a half m h. Where it's just close your

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Speaker 1: eyes and slamm it for me. An easy bet a

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Speaker 1: divisional underdog opening week. There you go, it's Goad Brandon.

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Speaker 6: Just one stat to add Bill Belichick as an underdog,

365
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Speaker 6: not quite Mike Tomlin, but as you would expect, pretty

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Speaker 6: darn good. Belichick underdog is thirty fifteen and two against

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Speaker 6: the spread, so that is covering two out of every

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Speaker 6: three opportunities. He also has a winning record straight up

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Speaker 6: as an underdog.

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Speaker 4: Get this one too, will be just the second time

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Speaker 4: since O four the Patriots are underdogs in Week one.

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Speaker 4: You got to go back to when Tom Brady was

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Speaker 4: suspended for to flake Gate. The Patriots are plus nine

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Speaker 4: in that game. They won the game twenty three to

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Speaker 4: twenty one.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Like, there's been so much negative media attention to the

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Speaker 1: Patriots training camp where it's like, I don't know why

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Speaker 1: we are believing this with Belichick, where like for someone

380
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Speaker 1: who totally has a grasp of the media doesn't communicate

381
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Speaker 1: much like why are we so aware of how bad

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Speaker 1: the Patriots I've been when we really have never been

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Speaker 1: this aware in the past.

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Speaker 2: Bok Fellas, I am sick of this. Okay, I can't

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Speaker 2: stand much more of this.

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Speaker 3: It's a joke. It's a joke.

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Speaker 4: Joe Galant take us home your final pick for a

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Speaker 4: Week one.

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Speaker 2: All right, So I'm gonna give you a little bit

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Speaker 2: of background first. So I'm known as the touchdown guy

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Speaker 2: here at Action Network. But last year, I'm willing to

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Speaker 2: say that, and I'm just looking at the numbers before

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Speaker 2: I came onto the pod today, interception props was pretty

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Speaker 2: close to my most profitable market last year. That I

395
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Speaker 2: was playing because I was able to just keep banking

396
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Speaker 2: on plus money. Guys. It's one of my guilty pleasures

397
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Speaker 2: is banking on the incompetence of quarterbacks. Honestly, to me,

398
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Speaker 2: like I get giddy watching it. Like some of my

399
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Speaker 2: like victims you know last season that I was gonna

400
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Speaker 2: do is like I had Ryan Tannehill twice at plus money,

401
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Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield. So the guy that

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be taking this week and the coincides

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Speaker 2: actually with Brandon's pick earlier, I'm gonna take Matt Ryan

404
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,760
Speaker 2: to throw an interception at plus one sixty double digit

405
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Speaker 2: i iNTS and four of the last five years he's

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Speaker 2: playing on the road to a divisional rival. And obviously

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Speaker 2: a lot went wrong in Houston last year, but one

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Speaker 2: of the lone bright spots was in its ability to

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Speaker 2: force interceptions. So the Texans were seventh in total interceptions

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Speaker 2: last year, and there were one of two teams with

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Speaker 2: the Saints being the other, to be in the top

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Speaker 2: ten in that category while also having a losing record.

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Speaker 2: So for me to like they play above their strengths

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Speaker 2: there gonna have an approved secondary. Obviously, Derek Stingley, I

415
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Speaker 2: think is going to make a little bit of an

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Speaker 2: impact on that front. Now I will say, like, I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to be as brave as brand I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to endorse the Texans spread better, you know, taking

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Speaker 2: Matt Ryan passing prop unders. But he's tied for the

420
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Speaker 2: highest odds on the board for an interception this week.

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Speaker 2: The other quarterback is Aaron Rodgers, who has nine interceptions

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Speaker 2: over the last two seasons. Like this isn't the pot

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Speaker 2: and kettle kind of comparison here, Like we taken Matt

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Speaker 2: Ryan interception.

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Speaker 4: Here, quarterbacks in a new city, new team the last

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Speaker 4: two years have won the title in Brady and Stafford.

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Speaker 5: It doesn't mean they all work right away, all.

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Speaker 3: Right, So let's recap.

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Speaker 4: We'll go Brandon, Luke, Jill dish out your three picks.

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Speaker 3: Just do we have it at nice, nice clean summary?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 6: I am riding dirty with my Houston Texans plus seven

433
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Speaker 6: and a half, the Pittsburgh Steelers, another division underdog plus

434
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Speaker 6: six and a half, and then my one favorite for

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Speaker 6: Week one, the Eagles minus three and a half.

436
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: And I'm going with the Browns plus one and a half,

437
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: the Giants plus five and a half and then the

438
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 1: Patriots plus three and a half.

439
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,119
Speaker 2: Hey, and I'm going with three player props. I got

440
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts over forty six and a half rushing yards

441
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,120
Speaker 2: at minus one fifteen. I got Naja Harris over three

442
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 2: and a half receptions versus the Bengals. That's still at

443
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 2: plus money. And then of course we're gonna cap it

444
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,679
Speaker 2: with Matt Ryan to throw an interception at plus one sixty.

445
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:53,120
Speaker 3: Okay, very good.

446
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 4: Before we wrap the show, let's take a very quick

447
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 4: look at next week's lines for NFL Week two.

448
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:00,439
Speaker 3: Let's see if we like any numbers.

449
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 4: Now, it's always good to get out ahead of it

450
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 4: before they adjust. You've got one guy on this panel

451
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 4: that's interested. It's Brandon Anderson, one of your specialities, sir,

452
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 4: What do you like for week two?

453
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: Yeah?

454
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 6: So the key with the look ahead is it's all

455
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,679
Speaker 6: about the number. It's trying to get ahead of a

456
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 6: line move that we expect to come, trying to get

457
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 6: some of that precious, precious CLV before the line moves

458
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 6: by Sunday night.

459
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: So you had to kind of pre tell the narrative. Here.

460
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 6: I'm grabbing our first Thursday Night game on Amazon Prime.

461
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 6: I'm taking the Kansas City Chiefs minus two and a

462
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 6: half at home against the Chargers. This is a huge

463
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 6: game early in the year. Here's why we're pre telling

464
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 6: the story. The Chiefs start out against the Cardinals this week.

465
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 6: That is one of the biggest rising lines so far.

466
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 6: Arizona is missing Deander Hopkins on offense. They look like

467
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 6: they're without JJ Awatt on defense. I'm fading Arizona. I

468
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 6: don't like them. The Chiefs are a team that could

469
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 6: put up a big number on Arizona and suddenly look

470
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 6: very good. Meanwhile, the Chargers, they're playing the Raiders. They're

471
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 6: missing J. C. Jackson, a really important addition on that team, who,

472
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 6: by the way, would have been the guy covering Devonte Adams.

473
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 6: So if the Chargers stumble a little bit or even

474
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 6: lose to the Raiders, I think that's very much in play.

475
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 6: Suddenly the Darling Chargers, on a fast turnaround, head to

476
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 6: Kansas City and have to take on this suddenly unbeatable

477
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 6: looking Chiefs team. We're not getting that two and a

478
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 6: half if you wait around. If that's what's happening, you

479
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 6: want to get that line. Obviously, we're right in front

480
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 6: of that key number, we might lose the key number

481
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 6: the other direction very easily. The Chiefs have won thirteen

482
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 6: out of sixteen against the Chargers. And here's the reason

483
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 6: you want to get this line low too. Patrick Mahomes

484
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 6: obviously a big favorite pretty much all the time. When

485
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 6: Pat Mahomes is not a big favorite, if he's either

486
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 6: a three point favorite or less or an underdog. For

487
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 6: his career twelve two and one against the spread, it's

488
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 6: covered eighty six percent of the time time by six

489
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 6: and a half points. So when you get a chance

490
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 6: to bet and Pat Mahomes as something close to coin flip,

491
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 6: you got to grab it. And that coin flip odds

492
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 6: may not last if the Sunday goes according to script

493
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 6: real quick.

494
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 4: You gave the angle on the Chargers based on how

495
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 4: the Chiefs look. Do they need to score a lot

496
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,400
Speaker 4: of points this week and week one against the Cardinals?

497
00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 4: Do they have to cover? Is there an angle there

498
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 4: that you're curious about? Are something that would make you

499
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 4: feel even better about this?

500
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: Yeah?

501
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 6: I mean I'm looking for a big, comfortable Chiefs win,

502
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 6: looking for their offense to be like, oh hey look

503
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 6: no Tyreek kill just fine, We got our plenty of points.

504
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 6: That's still the Chiefs. That's basically my outlook on them

505
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 6: for this season. And then it might still be the Chargers,

506
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 6: still the team that was really talented. But oh we're

507
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 6: down to a one score game against the Raiders late.

508
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 6: We're doing this again the Chargers. I feel like that's

509
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 6: kind of the story. We've done all the preseason hype,

510
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 6: and the Chiefs aren't fun to hype.

511
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 2: We know the Chiefs are good.

512
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,959
Speaker 6: We want to talk about the Charge the Chargers are

513
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 6: sexy and fun, and then Game one is about the

514
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 6: hit and it's gonna be like, oh, hey, the Chiefs

515
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 6: are pretty good. It turns out still every year. So

516
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 6: I want to get ahead of that because I think

517
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 6: that train is coming, just like it does every year.

518
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: Brandon Anderson.

519
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 4: Tell the people where they can find you on Twitter

520
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 4: and the Action App, and I'll ask the rest of

521
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 4: you before we go as well.

522
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I am at Wheaton Brando on Twitter. I've got

523
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 6: an article out that's got all of my futures. I've

524
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 6: got about like twenty different futures articles with season leaders

525
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 6: and awards, everything like that same thing at Ween Brando

526
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 6: on the Action app.

527
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 4: Vegas Refund has a name. It's no longer a mystery.

528
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 4: But where can they find you? Vegas refund on Twitter

529
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 4: or else?

530
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 3: Can they find you?

531
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: Luke Vegas refund on Twitter? Vegas refund on Action App?

532
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 3: Easy enough? That's it, very good.

533
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 5: And Jill, I know you've got like a long Twitter, so.

534
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 2: It's not too long. It's average, it's above average, you know,

535
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 2: we'll say that. So it's G dog five thousand, GDAWG

536
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 2: five thousand. That's both in the app and on social

537
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 2: media for Twitter touchdown props. Is you my forte. We're

538
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: gonna have a Touchdown show on Sundays at ten thirty

539
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 2: m Eastern on the Action YouTube channel, so come check.

540
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 3: It out, gents.

541
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,479
Speaker 4: Awesome work, Thanks so much for Brandon Anderson, Jill Gallant,

542
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 4: Luke swayn Vegas refund Your host today, Brendan glas Sheen.

543
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 4: That'll do it today on the Action Network podcast for

544
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 4: our NFL Week one best bets, enjoy the weekend, best

545
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 4: of luck, and we'll join you again next week for

546
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 4: Week two