Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from my Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host. Welcome to the show. It's Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: We are back for another edition. In this the fourth
Speaker 1: and final set of division by division tours around the NFL.
Speaker 1: My co host this week are Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison. Hello, guys, Hello,
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Wild Wild West. Let's finish this cross
Speaker 1: country tour, this grueling cross country I think it's spent
Speaker 1: a month of breaking down offenses. What how these up?
Speaker 1: Mostly about what these offenses are going to be different
Speaker 1: this year? Because everybody wants to just replay last year?
Speaker 1: Why do most of the cheap that you see at
Speaker 1: this time of year, especially, they're basically just well, what
Speaker 1: ordered they finish in last year? That'll be my starting point.
Speaker 1: So unoriginal, But that's not what we do here, do
Speaker 1: you hear? Do it would be more fun for us
Speaker 1: to take a cross country road trip as a Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly crew or do these divisions over a four
Speaker 1: week span, which is more fun. I would rather have
Speaker 1: the cross country road trip and I want to be
Speaker 1: in Somebody sent me like I started. I did a
Speaker 1: radio show last about it three weeks ago about r
Speaker 1: ving because I was thinking that might be the summer
Speaker 1: trip would be in an r V where I don't
Speaker 1: have to fly, I don't have to be in hotels.
Speaker 1: I just like clean the RV one time. You rent it, right,
Speaker 1: you clean it one time, and you go have fun.
Speaker 1: Somebody sent me the Mercedes benz Um wind Star something.
Speaker 1: I've seen a few of those Mercedes RVs around. Oh
Speaker 1: my god, the things I'm amazing. But it was three
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars and it's leaps too two. Now, what
Speaker 1: are the advantages of this thing is it's it's just
Speaker 1: like the size of a large van. So you're not
Speaker 1: taking this enormous contraption right, But it has all of
Speaker 1: the it has all the appointments of what you would
Speaker 1: imagine a Mercedes r V would have, unbelievable granted countertops. Yes, yes,
Speaker 1: that it was fantastic bathroom. That'd be you. So if
Speaker 1: we can get that thing, you can you can be
Speaker 1: the bubbler brand, can be the driver well, it won't
Speaker 1: sleep meer, you can sleep in the bathroom, Stanning out,
Speaker 1: No problem, let's go to the probably rather hang out
Speaker 1: the bathroom and drive the RV. At least you get
Speaker 1: the bathroom. A f C West and NFC West this week,
Speaker 1: which if you missed any of the other other divisions,
Speaker 1: you can go back through our previous podcast. We encourage
Speaker 1: it to do that. And not only we gonna break
Speaker 1: down how these offenses work, which is sort of the
Speaker 1: main focus, just how does this offense feel like it's
Speaker 1: going to come together fit all? And then we're also
Speaker 1: identifying the riskiest player to draft compared to ADP for
Speaker 1: that team and the player with the most upside compared
Speaker 1: to ADP. So that's the premise. We begin with the
Speaker 1: a f C West and your reigning champions, the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Matt, Yeah, you know that Chief's offense. It's
Speaker 1: pretty good. I'm familiar. Um, it's kind of why they
Speaker 1: have ten players going in the top three a DP
Speaker 1: and it's actually eleven if you include uh kicker Harrison
Speaker 1: Butker I think almost universally the number one ranked fantasy kicker. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's he's in there too. So let's start with the
Speaker 1: big arm of Patrick Mahomes. He threw nine touchdowns last season.
Speaker 1: There it is nine that went forty plus yards. He
Speaker 1: led the league in that category. So you think as
Speaker 1: receivers are just flying downfield and he's hitting people open
Speaker 1: twenty yards downfield, that's not the case. Average depth of
Speaker 1: target for his wide receivers and tight ends ranged between
Speaker 1: nine point four to thirteen point four, with Tyreek Hill,
Speaker 1: who's kind of the most notable receiver, slotting in at
Speaker 1: twelve point five. So the cool thing about Mahomes is
Speaker 1: he throws his receivers open because get this, yards after
Speaker 1: catch per reception. Travis Kelsey gained another four yards after
Speaker 1: the catch, Hill another four point eight, Watkins five point eight.
Speaker 1: Nicole Harder one of my favorite sleepers this year. So
Speaker 1: I'm totally not worried about the passing game. And you
Speaker 1: could consider each of the top three players in Hill, Kelsey,
Speaker 1: and Mahomes as a pretty safe in my fact, the
Speaker 1: upside In fact, I was going to say the upside
Speaker 1: play is Nicole Hardman. Um, it was only a year
Speaker 1: ago that Hardman was looking like the guy who would
Speaker 1: just slot into the offenses. The Tyreek Hill replacement, and
Speaker 1: they're similarly built speed receivers. Hill had the fastest clocked
Speaker 1: time in the NFL last year at twenty two point
Speaker 1: eight miles per hour when he was chasing down Damien
Speaker 1: Williams on a touchdown. That's funny, didn't it was just yes?
Speaker 1: But Hardman had the fastest speed in the league on
Speaker 1: a scoring play last year at twenty one point seven
Speaker 1: miles per hour. So these guys get drunk and go
Speaker 1: out running UI when they're that fast, almost it's kind
Speaker 1: of dangerous. Could hurt people. Hardman tied for the league
Speaker 1: lead in twenty five plus yard touchdown receptions with five
Speaker 1: last year. He's entering a year two in a Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes offense. You don't have to draft him till round nine.
Speaker 1: He only finished as the forty nine wide receiver in fantasy,
Speaker 1: but he only had twenty six receptions to get to
Speaker 1: to forty nine in Fantasy points. At your position, that's
Speaker 1: like two per game. That's less than two per game.
Speaker 1: Is now Hardman killed you in the games in which
Speaker 1: he didn't score, basically because his the volume was so low.
Speaker 1: When you're getting a catch and a half per game
Speaker 1: on average, you better score and so that was why
Speaker 1: I think people are going to be nervous about hardening,
Speaker 1: and especially in like a guillotine format where he's super
Speaker 1: super dangerous. But if you think those twenty six are
Speaker 1: going to turn into right, which is what Sammy Watkins
Speaker 1: had last year, two receptions, Um, I think Hardman with
Speaker 1: fifty two receptions, which is not a lot, which is
Speaker 1: like it was about forty seven among wide receivers in
Speaker 1: the NFL last year, he'd easily go over a thousand yards.
Speaker 1: And he had six touchdowns last year and he'd easily
Speaker 1: approved improved on that. So, um, I think that he's
Speaker 1: the uh, the best upside there. The biggest risk but
Speaker 1: also maybe the highest reward is Clyde Edwards Hilaire don't yes,
Speaker 1: is it like? No, it's not like that at all, actually,
Speaker 1: but you're correct and not saying the age he's going
Speaker 1: off the board in the third round. Um. The problem
Speaker 1: is is it's a little murky on the running back
Speaker 1: depth chart. Last year, players with seven or more touches
Speaker 1: from the running back position on the Chiefs Damian Williams
Speaker 1: did it eleven times, McCoy did it ten, Darryl Williams
Speaker 1: did it four, Darwin Thompson did it three times. Now
Speaker 1: Shady McCoy's gone, but both the Williams, Darwin Thompson and
Speaker 1: DeAndre Washington are now on the depth chart as well
Speaker 1: as c H. And I know Andy Reid has deployed
Speaker 1: workhorse backs in the past, most recently Kareem Hunt in
Speaker 1: the eighteen season, and I know talent wins out, and
Speaker 1: he's the most talented back on the roster, and I'm
Speaker 1: probably drafting him with the first overall pick in our
Speaker 1: rookie trap coming up in the Empire. But I was
Speaker 1: asked to come up with a risky player and he's
Speaker 1: the roster real danger here because he may only get
Speaker 1: the snaps. Yeah, that's that's the bit. That's the only
Speaker 1: danger here. And I think talent wins out. But I'm
Speaker 1: probably in a redraft league, gonna take this one year
Speaker 1: off and look at him probably next year. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the Denver Broncos. Brian, this is a team with
Speaker 1: a couple of notable new faces in Melvin Gordon, Jerry Judy,
Speaker 1: and everybody thinks Drew lock is ready to make the
Speaker 1: next move here and really add some passing balance to
Speaker 1: this offense. How do you feel about it? Yeah, Denver
Speaker 1: last year fifty seven point one percent passing plays that
Speaker 1: was twenty four the most. They ran the ball forty
Speaker 1: three percent of the time. I was the ninth most.
Speaker 1: So they were a little run heavy last year. Only
Speaker 1: one point seven offensive touchdowns per game. That was the
Speaker 1: that's bad. And Pat Shurner though, who has a very
Speaker 1: nice track record outside of the Giants mess a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago, but no one was going to thrive
Speaker 1: in that Gettleman environment. So I'm gonna give him a
Speaker 1: pass on that one. Um, So I want to note
Speaker 1: how Brian gets a Gettleman dig in. It doesn't matter
Speaker 1: what team it is, He's gonna figure out the way
Speaker 1: to bring it. Back to how Ghettle pretty sure I've
Speaker 1: mumbling my sleep like, but hey, I'm a Bengals fan now.
Speaker 1: And by the way, no one is allowed on the
Speaker 1: Bengals fanwagon this year. That's the last year I'm holding
Speaker 1: the gates. And everyone was laughing, so you're holding the
Speaker 1: door shot, screw you all. Anyway back to Drew lock
Speaker 1: Uh right now going out in the late thirteenth round
Speaker 1: his quarterback twenty three. I've got him quite a bit
Speaker 1: higher than that. A lot of people do that. The
Speaker 1: hype is real. Hype is building around Drew only five
Speaker 1: starts last year, he did go four and one. Came
Speaker 1: out on fire with five touchdown passes across his first
Speaker 1: two starts, but that was against a depleted Chargers secondary
Speaker 1: and then a brutal Houston secondary struggled in Kansas City
Speaker 1: in the blizzard, and they didn't really put up numbers
Speaker 1: in the last two. But Denver wants Lock to be
Speaker 1: the guy. Uh, well, yeah, I mean, look at the
Speaker 1: look what they've done at the quarterback position since Manning left.
Speaker 1: So it's all about he He looks like he has
Speaker 1: what it takes. He's got the build, he's got the arm,
Speaker 1: he looks like he's got the mental game. So it's
Speaker 1: all about the additions to the arsenal only off season. Um,
Speaker 1: before we get to those, I want to talk about
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton really quick. Obviously, the wide receiver one on
Speaker 1: the Broncos right now in redraft going in the fifth round,
Speaker 1: his wide receiver twenty four going way higher in Dynasty
Speaker 1: of course, uh Sutton was a top twelve wide receiver
Speaker 1: in the first half, often with Joe Flacco and Brandon
Speaker 1: Allen as his quarterback. His second half was actually torpedoed
Speaker 1: by his final four weeks. I remember having a monster
Speaker 1: second half, but Uh in his final four games finished
Speaker 1: no higher than wide receiver Fortyes, so that really put
Speaker 1: a damper on his numbers. But regardless, he made a
Speaker 1: huge leap in his second year as a rookie. In
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, Sutton was eighty second out of a hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty six wide receivers and yards after the catch.
Speaker 1: Last year he finished twenty nine. UM. He shows all
Speaker 1: the trades of an elite wide receiver. The main concern
Speaker 1: is there's more competition for targets. Now, let's get to
Speaker 1: that than there was last year, and that starts with
Speaker 1: Jerry Judy, UH first round pick. UH twenty four touchdowns
Speaker 1: across his last two seasons in Alabama. He looked amazing
Speaker 1: in Alabama, spread offense so productive. The concerns are he
Speaker 1: might struggle a little gets a little bit against the
Speaker 1: more physical corners in the NFL and press coverage. UH,
Speaker 1: and he doesn't have he's tall, he's six to He's
Speaker 1: a little wiry at two hundred, doesn't have a massive wingspan.
Speaker 1: Those seventy six inches is kind of dinosaur arms for
Speaker 1: a guy that tall. Um. But again, I just can't
Speaker 1: get with the fact that they took Jerry Judy over
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb. I'm never gonna get over that a lot
Speaker 1: of people would have though you know it's it's not criminal.
Speaker 1: You and I both think Ceedee Lamb was the right pick.
Speaker 1: But I'm just stuck on are there any dinosaurs with
Speaker 1: long arms that? That's what I'm thinking about right now.
Speaker 1: I know t Rex kind of pterodactyl, right because those
Speaker 1: are wings, but those are pretty I mean, who had
Speaker 1: long arms? I don't know. I was there a dinosaur
Speaker 1: with long arms? You've got google right, long Armasaurus? Yes,
Speaker 1: But so Judy going in the late ninth right now
Speaker 1: and Redraft wide receiver forty one that that seems about right.
Speaker 1: But uh, he doesn't threaten Sutton as the alpha dog.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be the compmentary number two. So there's no
Speaker 1: for Judy. But I don't expect him to pop off
Speaker 1: entirely in his rookie year. And there's one more rookie
Speaker 1: they did added wide receiver that's kJ Hamler for Redraft purposes.
Speaker 1: He's not gonna have much of an impact, so we
Speaker 1: won't we won't go there. But he is an intriguing
Speaker 1: dynasty prospect, and I'm not a fan. Okay, long arm
Speaker 1: dinosaurs dinosaur is the dino kai Res. Okay, I know
Speaker 1: Kiris tell us about the dino Cyrus. It's a genus
Speaker 1: of large or the mimosaur that lived in the Late
Speaker 1: Cretaceous around seventy million years ago in a pair of
Speaker 1: large arm, shoulder girdles and a few other girdles. Bones
Speaker 1: of the dinosaur were first discovered in Mongolia. I think
Speaker 1: they might introduce that one in like the sho coming
Speaker 1: installment of the Jurassic Park Garbage series. They might throw
Speaker 1: that it's a it's a very strange looking dinosaur. Looks
Speaker 1: like it has looks like they're dinosaur with with like
Speaker 1: some weird wings. That is weird. That is, the arms
Speaker 1: don't look that long. It looks it does look more
Speaker 1: like a duck than of Oh now there's oh, there's
Speaker 1: the long arms. Some of the versions are long arms,
Speaker 1: look like they just have like a paddle. I mean,
Speaker 1: if Jerry Judy's got arms and hands like that, we've
Speaker 1: got no issues at all. Well, the problem is he doesn't.
Speaker 1: He's got the short arm, like can he can he
Speaker 1: mix it up with the t rex. You think he
Speaker 1: looks like he's got a lot of times they show
Speaker 1: you these pictures, but you don't realize that thin only
Speaker 1: like four ft tall. Not all of the dinosaurs were gigantic.
Speaker 1: They weren't dressed park that's realistic, all right. Anyway, back
Speaker 1: to a non dinosaur in the young Noah Fanse the
Speaker 1: one more past catcher. We have to talk about, of
Speaker 1: course right now going in the ninth round tight end
Speaker 1: eleven eight point three yards after the catch last year
Speaker 1: that led all tight ends second among tight ends and
Speaker 1: yards per reception top seven and tight end end zone targets.
Speaker 1: And he really only started coming on in the second
Speaker 1: half of the years, so a lot of excitement around fans.
Speaker 1: I think, uh, tight end of leven probably his four really,
Speaker 1: I think the ceiling is a little higher for fans.
Speaker 1: And then, um, we got to talk about the running
Speaker 1: backs of course, charts you alluded to Melvin Gordon, the
Speaker 1: new arrival. He's going in the mid third round right
Speaker 1: now at RB nineteen. Philip Lindsay is still in town,
Speaker 1: of course, right now he's going round eight around RBT.
Speaker 1: So last year for Denver, Lindsay and Royce Freeman had
Speaker 1: the same number of carries inside the ten yard line,
Speaker 1: but Lindsay had twice as many inside the five. So
Speaker 1: he was the guy for Denver inside the stripe and
Speaker 1: inside the five eight carries, fourteen yards, five touchdowns, very
Speaker 1: impressive um for those who don't remember, Gordon was a
Speaker 1: charger last year. He held out the first four games,
Speaker 1: but he ended up with the fifth most carries inside
Speaker 1: the five in the league with thirteen, and his fifteen
Speaker 1: yards inside the five was the third most, so he
Speaker 1: did pretty well inside the five. Two. Gordon scores many
Speaker 1: touchdowns inside the five as sa Kwan Barkley, Nick Chubb
Speaker 1: and Levian Bell combined last year, So we're looking at
Speaker 1: his serious competition right now. It's pretty much like a
Speaker 1: fifty five the virtual split. But the one difference is
Speaker 1: one of these guys has passed the eye test multiple times, right,
Speaker 1: and one has failed. Well, I would tell you it's Philip.
Speaker 1: Philip Lindsay was passed the eye test. That's what I
Speaker 1: would tell you to charge. That's what I was trying
Speaker 1: to get us, because we talked about this before Lindsay
Speaker 1: passes the eye test. Gordon really never has. He's never
Speaker 1: looks just elite. He's produced. He didn't score touchdown in
Speaker 1: his rookie year. I'll never let him live that down, won't.
Speaker 1: So for that reason, Gordon in the mid third at
Speaker 1: RB nineteen, with the competition that probably is a better
Speaker 1: running back right behind him is the biggest downside for
Speaker 1: his ADP and then Drew Lock. If everything comes together
Speaker 1: with these added weapons and he continues to progress to
Speaker 1: your team top twelve quarterback, he is the easy upside
Speaker 1: player on this Denver Broncos team. Let's go to Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: The constant in the Raiders offense is Josh Jacobs. He's
Speaker 1: presumed to be one of the league's few true workhorse backs,
Speaker 1: and I think that is the case here. DeVante Booker
Speaker 1: isn't a threat. Rookie Lynn Bowden likely as a utility
Speaker 1: or gadget guy. Um. You know, he's he played primarily
Speaker 1: running back, but they're already talking about making him just
Speaker 1: a wide receiver or he's just gonna do whatever. He's
Speaker 1: a sketch back up up Minie the moocher right here.
Speaker 1: Nice year, Jacobs had two hundred sixty two touches last year.
Speaker 1: I think he gets no fewer than that here, and
Speaker 1: possibly up to three hundred touches, in part because you
Speaker 1: should be more involved in the passing game. Who says
Speaker 1: so his general manager, Mike Mayock says, we're going to
Speaker 1: get him more involved in the passing game. So let's
Speaker 1: hope that's the case. He averaged almost five yards per carry,
Speaker 1: and he's running behind Pro Football focuses number seven run
Speaker 1: blocking line from last year, and that run blocking line
Speaker 1: returns all five of their starters. So I don't see
Speaker 1: any role downside for for Josh Jacobs. He's going right
Speaker 1: now at pick nine. Overall, I think he's very safe
Speaker 1: at that spot, and so I think there's still plenty
Speaker 1: there's plenty of reason to think that Jacobs will be
Speaker 1: as good as he was last year, if not better.
Speaker 1: And ye two now charts, Are you taking a guy
Speaker 1: like Josh Jacobs in the tail end of the first
Speaker 1: round or will you be doing the opposite this year? Well,
Speaker 1: I'm almost certainly going to be doing the opus, Okay,
Speaker 1: so I can probably not Unfortunately, and the first round
Speaker 1: is notoriously dangerous for running backs, but this one feels
Speaker 1: pretty safe. Let's go to the passing game. A variety
Speaker 1: of new faces here. The first wide receiver taken in
Speaker 1: the draft was Henry Ruggs, insanely fast from Alabama, should
Speaker 1: be a Day one starter. His modest production in college
Speaker 1: suggests a slightly longer learning curve than guys like Jerry Judy,
Speaker 1: who we just talked about um, But his crazy speed
Speaker 1: and athleticism means that he's gonna roast some secondaries and
Speaker 1: you're gonna want to play him in matchups, in specific
Speaker 1: matchups early and then maybe later, then don't forget. In
Speaker 1: the third round, they took rookie Brian Edwards. Rewrote the
Speaker 1: South Carolina record book. Incredibly productive, amazing body control, high
Speaker 1: character guy. He had a knee injury that knocked him
Speaker 1: out of the end of twenty nineteen, wasn't able to
Speaker 1: participate in the combine. We're gonna watch the status of
Speaker 1: that knee and training camp, but he's somebody's gonna threaten
Speaker 1: for time to do you ever recall quite the disparity
Speaker 1: and rookie wide receivers where they went in the actual
Speaker 1: draft and then where they're going in terms of fantasy
Speaker 1: football with Rugs, the first wide receiver taken. He's like
Speaker 1: six when it comes to a rookie wide receiver, especially
Speaker 1: where these boys being drafted, and we're gonna talk about
Speaker 1: that and just about um so keep an eye and
Speaker 1: Brian Edwards as well throughout the preseason. We'll want to
Speaker 1: see if his knee is healthy enough to make him
Speaker 1: a competitor for starting time against Tyrolle Williams right off
Speaker 1: the bat, who I don't like. By the way, I
Speaker 1: thought Tyrone Williams was relatively pedestrian. Last year, he got
Speaker 1: dinged up, didn't produce in big numbers despite the fact
Speaker 1: that they really needed him a lot. So I'm not
Speaker 1: terribly interested in him, and I don't I think there's
Speaker 1: a scenario here where Edwards by the end of the
Speaker 1: year just beats him out. So I expect Derek Carter
Speaker 1: roll into the season as the starter, but he might
Speaker 1: be on a short lease because Marcus Mariotte is there,
Speaker 1: and if Mariota looks good in training camp, maybe there's
Speaker 1: more of a battle here. Um. As I tweeted yesterday,
Speaker 1: Derek Carr finished last year's quarterback fifteen and that brings
Speaker 1: us to our upside player Derek Carr who is currently
Speaker 1: going off the board at quarterback twenty seven. Carbage time,
Speaker 1: carbage time, he's going off the board and seventh round seventeen.
Speaker 1: He's got all these new weapons right that we already
Speaker 1: talked about. Um, Las Vegas defense is going to be
Speaker 1: bad again. There's gonna be a lot of passing, a
Speaker 1: lot of carbage, a lot of carbage time potentially. I
Speaker 1: think the riskiest player here is Bryan Darren wall Or yep,
Speaker 1: going off the board at tight end five right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you look at all these new receivers that are gonna
Speaker 1: eat into his targets, and he had just the three
Speaker 1: touchdowns last year on all the it's like target a
Speaker 1: hundred times he turned into three touchdowns. Shaking fist at
Speaker 1: Foster Moreau still um and then so just too many
Speaker 1: new faces here. I think that you know, we didn't
Speaker 1: even mention uh um um Witten there as well. Now,
Speaker 1: who's gonna maybe eat into some of that production as well?
Speaker 1: For Darren Waller, I just especially in the red zone
Speaker 1: and Nelson Aguilar is gonna infect everyone with the drop
Speaker 1: seas it's bad. Yeah, no, not just by proximity. That
Speaker 1: could be the case we'll take a break. When we
Speaker 1: come back, we'll talk about the Chargers briefly. This is
Speaker 1: not an offense that is exciting by any means, I
Speaker 1: don't think. And then turn our attention to the n
Speaker 1: f C West Seattle, San Francisco, the Rams Zona plenty
Speaker 1: to get to on Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Georgie and Matt Harrison. Brian Johnson
Speaker 1: with you. I don't mean to take the wind out
Speaker 1: of your sales by suggesting that your Chargers analysis, Matt
Speaker 1: is going to be anything other than stellar, but just
Speaker 1: the reality from a fantasy standpoint, this might be the
Speaker 1: least compelling offense in the NFL. So last week I
Speaker 1: got to do the Carolina offense. This looks like the
Speaker 1: a f C version of the Carolina Panthers. Chargers passed
Speaker 1: on six of their plays last season, that was fifth
Speaker 1: most in the league. Lock, of course, they lost their quarterback,
Speaker 1: Phil Rivers uh He went to India with his seventeen kids,
Speaker 1: leaving Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert to man the backfield. Now,
Speaker 1: Tye Taylor started a few games for the Browns at
Speaker 1: the beginning of before Baker took over the Taylor Yeah,
Speaker 1: but does uh last real starting gig where his three
Speaker 1: years in Buffalo where UM he had a high completion percentage,
Speaker 1: he was a low risk, low mistake kind of guy.
Speaker 1: In three full seasons of starting, he never threw more
Speaker 1: than six interceptions in a year. Wow. So he's which,
Speaker 1: by the way, keeps you in the league a long time.
Speaker 1: That's how you stay as a backup quarterback in this league.
Speaker 1: And he is aged thirty this year. So I look
Speaker 1: at this offense to run similar to Carolina's UM Taylor's
Speaker 1: career average depth of targets in the nines, which should
Speaker 1: allow the Chargers to be a little bit more functional
Speaker 1: than Teddy Bridgewater, who's in like the seventh's Uh. So
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a safe offense, high percentage throws
Speaker 1: than a lot of them, a little bit of rushing
Speaker 1: from your thirty year old quarterback who still has some wheels,
Speaker 1: and a heavy dose of Austin Ekeler, and this is
Speaker 1: setting up to be really really nice for him this
Speaker 1: year while he was in Buffalo. UM. While Taylor was
Speaker 1: in Buffalo, Shawn McCoy was seventh in the league and
Speaker 1: running back receptions seen tenth and twenty sixteen, and he
Speaker 1: was injured for most So outside of Christian McCaffrey's other
Speaker 1: worldly receiving stats, Austin Ekeler had the second most targets
Speaker 1: in the league um with and he had a hundred
Speaker 1: and four targets last year. Melvin Gordon had fifty two
Speaker 1: targets last year. Those should probably all roll um. Ekeler
Speaker 1: led running backs in the league with forty plus yard
Speaker 1: receptions with three. He trailed McCaffrey by only twelve receiving
Speaker 1: yards He had nine nine three, and he topped McCaffrey's
Speaker 1: eight receiving touchdowns. His average depth of target was one
Speaker 1: point to one yards. That's not much. His average yards
Speaker 1: per catch was ten point eight, So let's that's uh,
Speaker 1: that's some impressive work after the catch right there. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So the thing that really hurt him was his red
Speaker 1: zone touches. He only had seventeen carries in the twenty
Speaker 1: and only nine inside the five and Ran already talked
Speaker 1: about Melvin Gordon is gone, So does he automatically get those?
Speaker 1: Can he increase the rushing value without Melvin Gordon there?
Speaker 1: I think the answer is yes, Um, Melvin Gordon had
Speaker 1: more rushing attempts in twelve games than Ekeler did in sixteen.
Speaker 1: So if you take half of A Gordon's a hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty two rushing attempts last year, Okay, give him
Speaker 1: to one more, it's another three forty rushing yards and
Speaker 1: at least a handful of touchdowns if they give it
Speaker 1: to him inside the five. And so, by the way,
Speaker 1: I think Ekeler is mistakenly viewed as a scat back
Speaker 1: because he's a past catching back. People think that he's
Speaker 1: that he's a slighter build than he is house. He's
Speaker 1: a muscular dude. He can run inside and he could
Speaker 1: be a goal line back. Uh, well, they let him
Speaker 1: there are there are at least two other running backs
Speaker 1: on roster that could end up being goal line factor. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that's Joshua Kelly and Justin Jackson. Both are going
Speaker 1: off way late in drafts. And I know that. Uh.
Speaker 1: I know, Brian on the show has been a big
Speaker 1: Justin Jackson fan. But man, I think Austin Ekeler is
Speaker 1: just that good and I think that they're gonna roll
Speaker 1: with him this year. Um. Lastly on Eckler, uh, let
Speaker 1: me see it. I had to move around in my
Speaker 1: little sheet tibboo. Right now I'm scatting um. So basically,
Speaker 1: it's it's Carolina all over again. It's a it's a
Speaker 1: quarterback with mid range average depth of target. He liked
Speaker 1: to feature his multitool running back in the past and
Speaker 1: the third round. Eckler's probably one of the safer picks
Speaker 1: and Fantasy I actually like him a lot. He's my
Speaker 1: safety play. Uh. In Taylor's three years in Buffalo, he
Speaker 1: only had one wide receiver crack the top fifty in
Speaker 1: Fantasy points scored in that position. That was Sammy Watkins.
Speaker 1: He did not have a top fifty recent eve in
Speaker 1: sixteen or seventeen, and he had Robert Woods there for
Speaker 1: the for at least part, if not all, of those years.
Speaker 1: So my riskiest player. You may think it's Keenan Allen.
Speaker 1: I would it's not. He's going out in the fourth
Speaker 1: round and he's getting a new quarterback. You're close. It's
Speaker 1: Mike Williams. Williams is a deep threat and a touchdown
Speaker 1: guy who only scored twice last year. By the way,
Speaker 1: his average depth of target was eighteen point three compared
Speaker 1: to Alan, who runs primarily safe routes from the slot
Speaker 1: at ten point three yards downfield. That's right tyrods range.
Speaker 1: So I I like, I like Allen to continue to
Speaker 1: get the targets and the receptions. I think Williams is
Speaker 1: just a don't touch kind of guy, similar to Curtis
Speaker 1: Samuel and the Panthers. So that that's the guy I'm avoiding.
Speaker 1: What do you think about Hunter Henry because obviously you
Speaker 1: know he's still widely viewed as a top five fantasy yeah,
Speaker 1: and off at tight end number seven right now, seventy
Speaker 1: two overall, so the end of the sixth round. Um,
Speaker 1: the dude is just produced every time time when he's healthy,
Speaker 1: and and he by all accounts he's healthy right now,
Speaker 1: hasn't done anything in a while. So I think I
Speaker 1: think Hunter Henry, who's in that same range down field
Speaker 1: at with the high percentage throws, I think he's in
Speaker 1: for for some fine play as well. So Mike Williams
Speaker 1: is the guy I'm avoiding. By the way, he's going
Speaker 1: off the board at nine seven overall wide receiver forty
Speaker 1: That seems really early for a guy who scored two
Speaker 1: touchdowns last year. All right, let's go to San Francisco. Brian.
Speaker 1: This is obviously a super Bowl caliber team, but we've
Speaker 1: got a number of new faces in this offense and
Speaker 1: changes in the offense with uh the the additions at
Speaker 1: wide receiver, we've got where he most are walking in
Speaker 1: as your probable starter. This is a different offense than
Speaker 1: the one that we the one that we've saw, especially
Speaker 1: at this time last year. Yeah, and for fantasy purposes,
Speaker 1: it wasn't a very exciting offense last year. San fran
Speaker 1: ran Or passed the ball forty eight point six percent
Speaker 1: of the time. That was thirty first. They ran the
Speaker 1: ball fifty one four percent. That was the second most
Speaker 1: rushing plays by percent. Did score three point two offensive
Speaker 1: touchdowns per game, though that was fourth most, one of
Speaker 1: four teams to average more than three touchdowns per game
Speaker 1: offensive touchdowns that is. Joe Staley retired at left tackle.
Speaker 1: It's a big loss, but just bringing Trent Williams all
Speaker 1: world left assuming he's still all world we have, yeah years,
Speaker 1: he's still in his twenties, late twenties, al Right, I
Speaker 1: think he should be just fine. But uh so, Yeah,
Speaker 1: Jimmy G's got a pretty solid line in front of him.
Speaker 1: Not elite, but definitely very solid. Uh, speaking of Jimmy
Speaker 1: g going off the board in the early twelfth right now,
Speaker 1: at quarterback twenty a little high for me. Only four
Speaker 1: top ten finishes at quarterback last year for Jimmy, three
Speaker 1: of them came in the first ten games, and two
Speaker 1: of those three were against the Cardinals. You will face
Speaker 1: the Cardinals twice again this year. Of course, it has
Speaker 1: every year as long as he's a forty niner. But really,
Speaker 1: you know, San Francisco just needs him to be a
Speaker 1: system quarterback. They want a playoff game when he had
Speaker 1: seventy seven passing yards and zero touchdowns. Yeah, so they
Speaker 1: want to play a good defense, They want to run
Speaker 1: the ball for fantasy purposes. I'm not loving Garoppolo a
Speaker 1: whole lot, but I will say this. I will say
Speaker 1: this one stat and it's very interesting from Ian Hartet's
Speaker 1: of Pro Football Focus. The most yards per pass attempt
Speaker 1: in excluding screen passes with a minimum of a hundred attempts,
Speaker 1: so basically a hundred a minimum a hundred attempts that
Speaker 1: weren't screen passes. The average yards per attempt Ryan Tannehill
Speaker 1: nine point seven. And then Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: retired at eight point eight. So if San Fran reverts
Speaker 1: back to a couple of years ago when the defense
Speaker 1: was crap, Yeah, well I don't think that's quite gonna happen,
Speaker 1: right Well, probably not, but they were very bad not
Speaker 1: long ago. But yes, there are much better, they're more improved.
Speaker 1: If the team I'm from the defensive side takes one
Speaker 1: per se, there is some hope for Garoppolo. But I
Speaker 1: still think there's more hope than you're giving him because
Speaker 1: of the improvements at the wide receiver position compared especially
Speaker 1: covert to where they were rolling into last season, where
Speaker 1: they were banking on our Key's Goodwin always banged up,
Speaker 1: heard her was heard every you know, all the problems
Speaker 1: they had at receiver last year. They roll into this
Speaker 1: year with a first round pick, a receiver Deebo Samuel
Speaker 1: coming off that great second half and playoff run that
Speaker 1: he had. I just feel like this is a this
Speaker 1: is an opportunity now for Garoppolo to be materially better
Speaker 1: because the receivers are Yeah. Well, let's just let's not
Speaker 1: kiddle out of the way real quick. All I'll say
Speaker 1: about George Kittle final year of rookie deal. Wants money
Speaker 1: motivation is there tight end two right now though, and
Speaker 1: by a DP, you're taking Kiddle or Kelsey if you
Speaker 1: want on a tight end. I'm I'm still taking Kelsey
Speaker 1: fair enough. I'm all part of that Chief's offense. Um.
Speaker 1: So Deebo Samuel, let's talk about the wide receivers. Unfortunately
Speaker 1: suffered this Jones fracture not long ago. Timetable twelve to
Speaker 1: sixteen weeks. He probably not going to be full go
Speaker 1: until second third week of the season if all goes
Speaker 1: well for him. The interesting thing about Deebo is he
Speaker 1: did have a strong second half, but his big games
Speaker 1: where he was like top twelve and in side at
Speaker 1: wide receiver, there's a handful he had a rushing touchdown
Speaker 1: each one of those games that. Seriously, he's an amazing
Speaker 1: real life football player. He really is. He's a great athlete,
Speaker 1: he is. And yeah, he can run the ball catch
Speaker 1: the ball, of course, and it doesn't I know, running
Speaker 1: you can never predict a wide receiver rushing touchdowns, but
Speaker 1: he could. I mean, it's not like a total flute.
Speaker 1: If you're gonna if you're gonna predict the best chance
Speaker 1: for what wide receiver, he's gonna be one of them
Speaker 1: for sure, but I don't. For me, it's been a
Speaker 1: I'm fading the forty Niners past tack and this one.
Speaker 1: The forty Niners wide receivers average nine and a half
Speaker 1: catches per game as a whole last year, and I
Speaker 1: know they're better, and they are better, but I don't
Speaker 1: know you can. Let's get to him right now, sixteenth
Speaker 1: round and redraft wide receiver sixty. Uh probably going to
Speaker 1: be the top wide receiver option going into the season
Speaker 1: with Samuel dinged up. UM, I'm worried about rookie wide
Speaker 1: receivers this year with no no mini camps and uh
Speaker 1: nine point five catches a game game, I'm fading on you.
Speaker 1: I'm still fading Samuel even though he was going off
Speaker 1: the board cheaper. If you're looking for a fill in
Speaker 1: for Samuel, people are going to Jalen Heard right now,
Speaker 1: rookie wide out at a Baylor draft in the third round,
Speaker 1: six thirty. He's a beast, but he's he's raw. But
Speaker 1: I think Kendrick Kendrick Born is the guy I target
Speaker 1: out of any wide receiver for the forty Niners only
Speaker 1: two games with six targets last year, but in both
Speaker 1: those games. He caught uh touchdown and went over forty yards.
Speaker 1: We saw six targets, so I saw they're trying to
Speaker 1: extend him right now the um and I think they will.
Speaker 1: And then um, so I don't know the receiving corps
Speaker 1: of mess. You really need to see what's happen, what's
Speaker 1: up with debot as we need closer to the season.
Speaker 1: But I'm not super optimistic from a fantasy standpoint for
Speaker 1: any of them. Um, we do have to talk to
Speaker 1: running backs to very cool. I'll go as quickly as possible.
Speaker 1: This is a sticky team. Raheem Mostert going off in
Speaker 1: the mid sixth as RB twenty three, what a perfect
Speaker 1: do the opposite running back is perfect for the opposite
Speaker 1: And then there's still Tevin Coleman of course going in
Speaker 1: the mid ninth. Right now, is we just talk about
Speaker 1: Tvin Coleman for a minute. How about he sucks? He's
Speaker 1: just not good. So you know, I just don't think,
Speaker 1: you know, as great as this offense can be, especially
Speaker 1: for any running back, seems to be able to produce
Speaker 1: in it where he most starts better by any criteria,
Speaker 1: I think than Tevin Coleman, just as a running back
Speaker 1: and so I think I think most are gets the
Speaker 1: absolutely gets the first crack at the majority of work.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no doubt most are. It's last six games
Speaker 1: last year finished inside the top twenty among running backs,
Speaker 1: and all of them. Four of those six were inside
Speaker 1: the top ten. You're not even talking about the playoffs
Speaker 1: where he regular they did was just run him. Tevin Coleman,
Speaker 1: Mostart each carried the ball a hundred thirty seven times
Speaker 1: last year. Mostart finished with two twenty eight more rushing yards,
Speaker 1: also finished with more receiving yards ont less catches and Coleman.
Speaker 1: So yeah, most are. It's the guy, and he is
Speaker 1: your high upside play. If he can get the bell
Speaker 1: cow usage, you know, the workhorse back all year long
Speaker 1: on this team. UH, top ten RB potential you forget easily.
Speaker 1: This is Mike Shanahan's kid. Shannahannikins Man hated Mike Shanahan.
Speaker 1: We we love him. We love Kyle, though Kyle styles
Speaker 1: us he is as predictable as he's so predictive. I
Speaker 1: love him. I I love his offenses. They've been great.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to see you're done right. I
Speaker 1: don't talk about Jack McKinnon. No, Okay, well, all right,
Speaker 1: who is so wait? Let me let me class by
Speaker 1: high upside most and really the downside for me, now,
Speaker 1: it's it's gotta be iook because his ADP is gonna climb.
Speaker 1: With Deebo Samuel injured, I think you'll creep into the
Speaker 1: mid thirties, which puts him in starter potential in terms
Speaker 1: of fantasy football. And he's a rookie and there's gonna
Speaker 1: be growing pains and that's gonna be a frustrating process
Speaker 1: to pick which weeks to plug him in. So I'm
Speaker 1: I'm fading all the white outs for San Fran personally.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Seattle, and this one take very long
Speaker 1: because I think this year's version looks just like last year,
Speaker 1: which looked us like the year before it. You know,
Speaker 1: we know what Seattle is all about here, and there's
Speaker 1: not a lot of new parts. They were third in
Speaker 1: rushing attempts last year. They were second in rushing attempts
Speaker 1: the year before that. You know this is gonna be
Speaker 1: a run first offense. Chris Carson returns as the starter.
Speaker 1: There is Carlos Hyde there, but he stinks, and Rashade
Speaker 1: Penny is trying to recover from his second major knee injury,
Speaker 1: so he's not really a factor either. So Chris Carson
Speaker 1: um it should be the focal point of much of
Speaker 1: this offense. Was there some talk about Marshawn Lynch possibly
Speaker 1: rejoining the team again? You know, I thought Lynch looked
Speaker 1: pretty bad, very bad. I just don't think there's anything
Speaker 1: left in the tank. Uh. The offensive line, I'm a
Speaker 1: little bit nervous about. Let's talk about all the changes here.
Speaker 1: It always changes in Seattle's offensive line, always at center.
Speaker 1: B J. Finney was signed from Pittsburgh to compete with
Speaker 1: Joey Hunt. Right guard Damian Lewis was a third round
Speaker 1: pick from l s U. Who's gonna step in for
Speaker 1: d J. Fluker? And then the team signed a new
Speaker 1: right tackle, Brandon Shell from the Jets, to replace Jermaine Effetti.
Speaker 1: I don't know that any of those guys are better
Speaker 1: than the guys they're replacing. And Sella finished with Profo
Speaker 1: ball Focus is ranked pass blocking unit from last year.
Speaker 1: There were sixteen in run blocking. I'm nervous about this
Speaker 1: offensive line, and I think there there's going to be
Speaker 1: some problems with all these changes. And I don't know
Speaker 1: if these players are going to be any better. Who
Speaker 1: needs an offensive line when you have Russell Wilson, Well,
Speaker 1: there's that. Let's and let's first, by the way, let's
Speaker 1: just dispel the notion that Russell Wilson's a rushing quarterback.
Speaker 1: You're living in if you think that's the case. The
Speaker 1: last two years he has averaged he's put together as
Speaker 1: two worst rushing seasons, averaging about three fifty rushing yards
Speaker 1: per year, and he has averaged one and a half
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. I wonder how much rushing he's actually just
Speaker 1: doing in the backfield, scrambling around more. If you could
Speaker 1: get points for that Russell Wilson, then I'm in DJ
Speaker 1: sits DJ excuse me. Dk Metcalf stunned almost everybody with
Speaker 1: his productivity last year. One hundred targets, nine yards, seven touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Clearly has the body to be a red zone threat um.
Speaker 1: And maybe if they, you know, in his second year,
Speaker 1: maybe if they you know, maybe those seven touchdowns turns
Speaker 1: in double digit touchdowns. You know, I think there's a
Speaker 1: lot of optimism on dk metcap Tyler Lockett just straight
Speaker 1: solid back to back season's top fifteen Fantasy production. Each
Speaker 1: of the last two years. I think he'll be a
Speaker 1: factor here too. But the bigger story I think is
Speaker 1: his team just doesn't pass enough to elevate any of
Speaker 1: these guys into like top ten level territory. That's just
Speaker 1: not how this offense is built. And we just don't
Speaker 1: have the volume from the passing game. Now. Did you
Speaker 1: see on Twitter? I think it was this just this week,
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson was working out with Antonio Brown. I did
Speaker 1: see that. Yes, Um, a little interesting tidbit there that
Speaker 1: would be interesting. Antonio Brown is getting now, and to
Speaker 1: know Brown's getting drafted everywhere. I mean, you know, he
Speaker 1: doesn't know he's not surviving through drafts undrafted anymore. And
Speaker 1: it seems like that kind of locker room with you know,
Speaker 1: strong head coach Pete Carroll could could probably help keep
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown a little more subdued. This This is like
Speaker 1: a very NBA like off season almost for some of
Speaker 1: these teams, like these super teams like the Bucks are
Speaker 1: countering the Patriots counter with cam. Yeah, there's a little
Speaker 1: something to that, and uh it's you would think you
Speaker 1: need ring cred I think to shut down Antonio Brown,
Speaker 1: and they got it, you know, And so maybe this
Speaker 1: is going to be the right spot. Probably would have
Speaker 1: been a good citizen in New England last year too,
Speaker 1: had that played out, Yeah, probably would have been, but
Speaker 1: that got short circuited, mostly by himself. Greg Olsen is
Speaker 1: the new starting tight end and this offense is tight
Speaker 1: end friendly. Remember last year how people were pivoting to
Speaker 1: Nick Venette and will dis Lee and Jacob Hollister and
Speaker 1: mostly those guys that actually produced was the wild thing. Yes,
Speaker 1: you have to keep because they kept getting hurt. Well,
Speaker 1: mostly all those guys are gone, and for whatever part
Speaker 1: of sixteen games that Olsen gives you, he'll get the
Speaker 1: majority of of what has been a productive tight end offense.
Speaker 1: Um only will diste returns from last year. So the
Speaker 1: riskiest player based on a DP I think his DK
Speaker 1: Metcalf going off the board two picks after Tyler Lockett. Um.
Speaker 1: We assume he's gonna be a lot better in year two,
Speaker 1: and he probably will be, but will be better than
Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett in year two? I don't know. I'm not
Speaker 1: ready to go there yet. And the player with the
Speaker 1: most upside is Greg Olsen going off the board at
Speaker 1: tight end twenty three. So you know, is your second
Speaker 1: tight end he'll probably give you tight end one returns
Speaker 1: while he's healthy, so he fits right in there with
Speaker 1: the Seattle good tight ends who get hurt a lot. Yes, perfect, Yes, he'll, he'll, he'll,
Speaker 1: he'll do his thing and that means getting hurt and
Speaker 1: that will um. You know, at round twenty, if you
Speaker 1: have if you've got Greg Olsen starting it for six weeks,
Speaker 1: fine and you can come to the curve. I think
Speaker 1: we might have some more tight ends to talk about
Speaker 1: in the next segment. I bet we do. As we
Speaker 1: go to the Rams, that is a tight end, a
Speaker 1: friendly offense. Man, there's a lot of people banking on
Speaker 1: one of the two tight ends really emerging. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about the Rams and their tight end situation when we
Speaker 1: come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Fantasy Football Weekly Paul
Speaker 1: Charchy and Matt Harrison Brian Johnson with you got two
Speaker 1: teams left to break down as we analyze the a
Speaker 1: f C and NFC West. We go to the Rams,
Speaker 1: an offense that obviously underproduced a lot last year, with
Speaker 1: many people including me, are optimistic they're gonna make the
Speaker 1: bounce back this year. Returned to a tour to better
Speaker 1: form what a weird offense that was last year, wasn't it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they passed sixty one two percent at the time, seventh
Speaker 1: highest rate in the league. Uh. They lost Todd Gurley
Speaker 1: and Brandon Cooks in the off season. Uh. Offensive tackle
Speaker 1: Andrew Whitworth did resign for three years. That's good. And
Speaker 1: then they drafted Cam Akers and Van Jefferson as the
Speaker 1: Girley and Cooks replacements. Uh. What kind of offense is
Speaker 1: this one? It's actually a very safe one. They don't
Speaker 1: have a lot of risk to them. Uh. They're tied
Speaker 1: to Jared Goff for the next half decade, and Sean
Speaker 1: McVeigh is trying to scheme away to put Golf in
Speaker 1: the best position because it's very possible that got just
Speaker 1: not a very good quarterback. Um. What that means is
Speaker 1: they're gonna run the ball and it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: short passing game. Goff's average depth target eight yards tied
Speaker 1: for twenty six in the league last year. That was
Speaker 1: lower than Mason Rudolph, Mitch true Bisky. Uh, here it
Speaker 1: is Jacoby Bursette, Kyle Allen, David Bloch, lower than all
Speaker 1: of those guys. Goff was only sacked twenty two times
Speaker 1: in sixteen games, though, which puts him in the top ten.
Speaker 1: Uh as far as least time sacked, that's good for
Speaker 1: that offensive line. He did fumble ten times last season
Speaker 1: and through sixteen picks, So they're gonna try to make
Speaker 1: him safer and safer and get the ball out of
Speaker 1: his hands as quick as possible. So how will the
Speaker 1: short passing offense work? Pretty good for most of the
Speaker 1: guys you're interested in on this offense, Cooper Cup, especially
Speaker 1: Cooper Cups average depth of target seven point to Robert
Speaker 1: Woods eight point four, Tyler Higbee six point five. Guests
Speaker 1: who didn't belong in that offense last year, Brandon, Yeah,
Speaker 1: at fourteen point five. That's gone. So Cup and Woods
Speaker 1: each clocked in at right around the same amount of targets, receptions,
Speaker 1: and yards literally give or take a few digits up
Speaker 1: or down on this but one thirty targets, ninety receptions yards,
Speaker 1: both almost identical. Yeah, the difference was Cup had ten touchdowns,
Speaker 1: Woods had to. Yeah that you figure everybody including me
Speaker 1: thinks that that too number for touchdowns on Robert Woods
Speaker 1: is gonna look, We're gonna look back. Well, that was
Speaker 1: an anomalous Yeah, two is a little bit ridiculous. In
Speaker 1: his other two years at the Rams, he scored five
Speaker 1: and six. He's never been a high touchdown guy. Six
Speaker 1: is his record in a year. But he'll probably get
Speaker 1: closer to five or six than to stay at two. Well,
Speaker 1: but with Brandon Cooks out, I just feel like Woods
Speaker 1: is gonna get you know, add ten percent to to
Speaker 1: his looks and you know, I want to believe that
Speaker 1: he's capable of a nine touchdown season. Yeah. Well, unfortunately
Speaker 1: the early drafters haven't depressed st Robert Woods is a
Speaker 1: DP quite enough for me? Um No, in fact that
Speaker 1: a lot of people, a lot of people see it
Speaker 1: like I do. Robert Woods, a good receiver is gonna
Speaker 1: have a better season. You have to take him at
Speaker 1: the end of the fourth round. That feels about right
Speaker 1: to me. That's not quite low enough for him to
Speaker 1: be my value pick. Um. My value pick is Tyler Higby.
Speaker 1: His his a DP is low enough. He's going off
Speaker 1: the board in the ninth round. Is tight end number
Speaker 1: twelve right now. The Rams finally figured something out at
Speaker 1: the end of the season, with Higby listened to his
Speaker 1: last five games of the year when the Rams were
Speaker 1: still fighting for a wild card spot. Yeah, eight targets,
Speaker 1: seven receptions, one oh seven and a score. Okay, that's
Speaker 1: a very good game. Eleven targets seven for one sixteen,
Speaker 1: fourteen targets, twelve for one, eleven, eleven targets, nine for
Speaker 1: one oh four, twelve targets, eight for eighty four and
Speaker 1: a score. Now let's extrapolate those now you got uh.
Speaker 1: He averaged eight point six catches, a hundred and four
Speaker 1: yards and point four scores in those last five games.
Speaker 1: He was Kindler Kelsey for the last month of the year.
Speaker 1: So I I like him a lot at that level
Speaker 1: because it seems like they figured something out with him
Speaker 1: and how to utilize him properly. He was really splitting
Speaker 1: time with Gerald Everett earlier in the year, whole career,
Speaker 1: and they figured out, oh, this guy is pretty good,
Speaker 1: let's toss him the ball. So uh, higbie is my
Speaker 1: uh my upside play. The riskiest play is anyone in
Speaker 1: the running game, and the highest draft of those as
Speaker 1: cam Akers, who's going off the board in the middle
Speaker 1: of the eighth, So it's not even that risky. Um.
Speaker 1: Darrell Henderson Truthers are all butt hurt because the Rams
Speaker 1: drafted Acres, But don't sleep on Malcolm Brown continuing to
Speaker 1: be part of this offense, probably actually especially near the
Speaker 1: end zone. Girley took fifteen carries from inside the five
Speaker 1: last year and converted eight touchdowns. That was, and those
Speaker 1: numbers are gone. Brown had eight carries from inside to
Speaker 1: five that he took for five touchdowns, so that's very productive.
Speaker 1: Acres could end up being the between the twenties runner.
Speaker 1: Brown could be the goal line guy, Henderson the change
Speaker 1: of pace back. So the sneaky bonus value I think
Speaker 1: is Malcolm Brown here, Who's the guy that you can
Speaker 1: get very last out of all these running back for sure,
Speaker 1: last two twenty three running back sixty five, So that's
Speaker 1: insanely low for a guy who might be sitting on
Speaker 1: between five to nine touchdowns possibly just there just from
Speaker 1: the goal line carries and carries from inside the five.
Speaker 1: Cam Akers isn't ready to take that role. I think
Speaker 1: Makers is built to be a goal line guy though,
Speaker 1: and so it's not clear that Malcolm Brown will get
Speaker 1: those carries. But the fact that he's been successful, yeah,
Speaker 1: with the carries they've given him at the stripe and
Speaker 1: so many carries that are gone, Yes, you might be right.
Speaker 1: About that, because Malcolm Brown is gonna be He's I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be a havan to ten touch per game. Guy.
Speaker 1: Probably doesn't score, he's gonna kill you, but he's gonna
Speaker 1: have these games or he's gonna get touchdowns maybe two
Speaker 1: in a game. And for best ball, I like Malcolm Brown.
Speaker 1: He's definitely a best ball guy there. Let's go to
Speaker 1: Arizona Kyler Murray. Everybody expecting a big uptick and production
Speaker 1: and Kyler Murray, he's uh said, where's is ADP right now?
Speaker 1: On quarterbacks last night? Yeah, that's that's a massive, massive
Speaker 1: jump from where he was last year. Absolutely, Ah yeah,
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. Last year most completions of fifty plus yards.
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins had six that led the NFL. Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: was tied with him with six completions of fifty plus yards.
Speaker 1: Here's the list of rookie quarterbacks with a top twelve
Speaker 1: fantasy finish since Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Andrew Look,
Speaker 1: r G three, Cam Newton, All those guys are pretty
Speaker 1: good from a fantasy perspective. RG three You can give
Speaker 1: your take what you want there, sou Yeah, the sky
Speaker 1: is the limit for Murray in his second season. He
Speaker 1: was third in rushing attempts last year and second in
Speaker 1: yard yards among quarterbacks, averaging five point nine yards per
Speaker 1: catch four touchdowns. So he's a weapon. He's going right
Speaker 1: about in the right spot. He I think that's man.
Speaker 1: It's high, it's a it's a high flying offense. And uh,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of excitement with Cliff Kingsbury
Speaker 1: and second year. So before I get to Murray's pass catchers,
Speaker 1: I just want to talk about Kenyan Drake. Um probably
Speaker 1: might be the safest running back going in the first
Speaker 1: two rounds, and that includes everyone. Uh. Starting week nine,
Speaker 1: Drake started getting about twenty touches per game with Arizona
Speaker 1: he came over from Miami. Of course, from week nine
Speaker 1: on he only finished behind McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Zeke
Speaker 1: and PPR formats and and from week nine to seventeen
Speaker 1: he finished Drake. That is seventy percent of his games
Speaker 1: as an RB two and nearly as an RB one.
Speaker 1: That's incredibly say floor with a ridiculous upside for comparison
Speaker 1: to say, you have guys like Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones,
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon. We're finishing more than twenty their games outside
Speaker 1: the top thirty, and those guys can certainly win you
Speaker 1: be releague, but they can lose it for you if
Speaker 1: you drafted in the first round. So I'm loving Drake
Speaker 1: He's going. It depends on the league. But you can
Speaker 1: say mid second as RB like ten to twelve. But uh,
Speaker 1: I think that might be a little too late for Drake.
Speaker 1: But he's not my upside guy. Get to him in
Speaker 1: a little bit. He's your safe guy. You already you
Speaker 1: already said he's super safe. He's super safe, super safe guy. Uh.
Speaker 1: Now to the the weapons for Kyler Murray in the
Speaker 1: passing game, and of course we'll start with the Andre
Speaker 1: Hopkins coming over from Houston. Um going in the late first,
Speaker 1: right now or early second around wide receiver for you're
Speaker 1: generally seeing Michael Thomas, of course, Davante Adams and Tyree
Speaker 1: Hill going before Hopkins, and you know what, they will
Speaker 1: probably be going before Hopkins if he was in Houston. Still,
Speaker 1: I feel like so the main concern is really see
Speaker 1: the targets he saw in Houston with Arizona. I was
Speaker 1: shocked to see this Arizona's wide receivers told the third
Speaker 1: most catches last year. Two. That's nearly fifteen a game.
Speaker 1: That's a lot. Remember I said forty nine at nine
Speaker 1: and a half, so that that's that's a big difference.
Speaker 1: UM And for reference, the Texans actually finished fourth with two.
Speaker 1: So last year Arizona, it's sounding like they lost any
Speaker 1: key member of their wide receiver corps. It was it
Speaker 1: was Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald and then it was
Speaker 1: like Demere Bird and Andy Isabella. So the volume is
Speaker 1: still there for Hopkins. So despite that though, he's still
Speaker 1: my biggest downside risk based on the ADP just because
Speaker 1: wide receiver is so deep, you could argue taking a
Speaker 1: couple other white outs instead of him where he's at. UM,
Speaker 1: I don't know first round. I think any wide receiver
Speaker 1: is risky in the first round this year. DeShawn Watson
Speaker 1: is awesome. He's a better cort Tayler. Murray wants to
Speaker 1: someday be Deshaun Watson. Awesome, he's not. You know, we
Speaker 1: don't know that he's there yet and we'll ever be there,
Speaker 1: so you know, there there's we're still afting Hopkins as
Speaker 1: though he's got an elite quarterback when we don't know
Speaker 1: that he's got an elite quarterback. And if he just
Speaker 1: had to choose, would you say he's gonna have a
Speaker 1: better year than he's ever had or probably come in
Speaker 1: a little under than his normal numbers. It just feel
Speaker 1: to me, it feels like it's I'm expeking about the same.
Speaker 1: Still too risky for me with this a DV. This
Speaker 1: is a team too. It's tough to find risk on
Speaker 1: this team really outside of Murray. And if you're that
Speaker 1: worried about Murray and Hopkins, Um a couple more wide
Speaker 1: outs to talk about. Christian Kirk right now, going in
Speaker 1: the late eighth round wide receiver thirty seven. Only played
Speaker 1: thirteen games last year, but Um had at least seven
Speaker 1: targets nine times, nine times, double digit targets five times,
Speaker 1: and at least six catches seven times as well. And
Speaker 1: like I said, he missed those three games. If he
Speaker 1: played a full sixteen game season, he's easily inside the
Speaker 1: top twenty four wide receiver. And you think of Kirk,
Speaker 1: and you just think of defense. Is keen in on
Speaker 1: Drake and DeAndre Hopkins and this kid might just go
Speaker 1: crazy running free in single cover. Ridge all season long, so,
Speaker 1: but he is not my highest the Arizona Cardinals. I know,
Speaker 1: I know what's coming. Our listeners don't, but I do.
Speaker 1: Some might. Uh, So I have to talk about Larry Fitzgerald,
Speaker 1: probably the greatest to ever do it. I'm gonna say,
Speaker 1: even better than Jerry Royce considering the awful quarterbacking that
Speaker 1: fits his head in his career, and Rice had Montana
Speaker 1: and Steve Young. But Larry a brutal year last year.
Speaker 1: A great start, top the hundred yards in his first
Speaker 1: two games, his one top twelve finish game in Week one,
Speaker 1: but after a sort of Week three and on, he
Speaker 1: only topped sixty yards twice. And don't forget Keem Butler,
Speaker 1: Andy is Abella and needs some reps, and I feel
Speaker 1: like he's gonna forego some of his snaps for those guys. So, actually,
Speaker 1: Fitzgerald's my downside guy. I'm saying you can't draft Larry
Speaker 1: Fitzgerald in fantasy football. This here, I'm not gonna do it.
Speaker 1: It breaks my heart. I'm pulling for him in reality,
Speaker 1: but people will still draft him. But don't waste your
Speaker 1: draft pick on chasing fits of bold. All right, who's
Speaker 1: your side, guy, let's let's get it all the way. Upside.
Speaker 1: Guy doesn't really have an ADP yet hard I'm trying.
Speaker 1: There's upside and that is Dan Arnold, ard player without
Speaker 1: any not a lot of numbers or tape on Dan
Speaker 1: Now a tight end in the in the on the
Speaker 1: team that featured the fewest tight ends snaps last year.
Speaker 1: Something's got I'm gonna kindly ask you to shut up. Now,
Speaker 1: let's break down what we got for dan Arnold. Look
Speaker 1: at this guy going right to last year. Don't we
Speaker 1: say not to do that. It's our it's our only
Speaker 1: amateur amateurs right here. Anyway. Dan Arnold went undrafted out
Speaker 1: of Wisconsin Platteville in seventeen, but was signed by the
Speaker 1: Saints as a wide receiver converted tight end year later. Yeah,
Speaker 1: played one year with the Saints. Really in one with
Speaker 1: Arizona last year. Only twenty career receptions, not a lot,
Speaker 1: not a lot, But he's averaging fourteen yards to catch.
Speaker 1: Fifteen of those twenty receptions have gone for first downs.
Speaker 1: That's pretty impressive. Okay, did not see real game action
Speaker 1: until the last four games of twenty nineteen with the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: but in those four games saw thirteen targets turned him
Speaker 1: into eight catches, one and twenty seven yards and two
Speaker 1: touchdowns in four games. That's still like averaging five yards
Speaker 1: a game. You guys are more on anyway, he started
Speaker 1: just one of those games. You didn't see full game
Speaker 1: match and think of the thirdteen targets. If he gets
Speaker 1: thirteen targets in the game, well is he? Is he
Speaker 1: the starter? He started week seventeen? Okay, one start? Okay?
Speaker 1: So is he the starter this year? Dan Arnold the starter?
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury wants him to be the starter. In his
Speaker 1: one start last year, six targets, four catches, seventy six
Speaker 1: yards in a touchdown. He's gonna get full run in
Speaker 1: in an offense that plays soft tight end defenses. No,
Speaker 1: put your finger down, put it up your nose. What
Speaker 1: you got? I was gonna say, DeAndre Hopkins hundred and
Speaker 1: two targets, hundred and eleven receptions, yards, eleven touchdowns. Who
Speaker 1: are his quarterbacks? You ask? Yeah, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.
Speaker 1: I think he can produce anybody With Kyler Murray, I
Speaker 1: think it'll be okay, You'll be fine, all right, Dan
Speaker 1: Arnold relevance, Damn Dan Arnold a DP is an infinity similar,
Speaker 1: Dan Arnold would somebody should get that. You should go
Speaker 1: to the Jets or the Jets. The Jets won't trade
Speaker 1: for Sam Donald. Imagine that Sam Donald to Dan Arnold connection.
Speaker 1: You know, they're gonna have these expanded, these expanded rosters
Speaker 1: due to COVID this year. There they might have a
Speaker 1: real problem where teams can't have you know, like linebackers
Speaker 1: have to wear between whatever forty and fifty or something, right,
Speaker 1: you have to, you know, but if you're if you're
Speaker 1: the Steelers, you've already retired like four numbers of linebackers
Speaker 1: and you've also got a bunch of linebackers, they might
Speaker 1: run out of numbers for some of these guys. They
Speaker 1: might need the infinity symbol or a half like Hi
Speaker 1: Hi Hi. Yeah. Maybe, um it's getting nerdy, that's getting nerdy. Uh.
Speaker 1: Speaking of COVID. Next show, I want to talk about
Speaker 1: some of the COVID prevention measures your league needs to take. Now,
Speaker 1: get your you know, get your league squared away. Now
Speaker 1: for some of the things that might happen COVID related
Speaker 1: That will come next week as one of several topics.
Speaker 1: So and and and I can I can bring up
Speaker 1: an early one where we're in an Empire baseball league,
Speaker 1: Brian and I and we don't know what to do
Speaker 1: with our Empire baseball league this year. If they play
Speaker 1: a sixty game baseball season, do you treat it as
Speaker 1: a full year? Do you do you just treat it
Speaker 1: as a one off? Some of things are gonna talk
Speaker 1: about what happens if what happens if it's a a
Speaker 1: an abbreviated season. What if it you know a little
Speaker 1: bit like baseball last year where they just have to
Speaker 1: not basic like basketball or hockey, or they just basically
Speaker 1: stop it then what so you know, we're gonna talk
Speaker 1: about some of those things. Also, we'll talk about Cam
Speaker 1: Newton going to the Patriots, which we didn't cover in
Speaker 1: this one. We'll talk about his fantasy value specifically with
Speaker 1: the Patriots. It's not gonna be anything because Jared Stidham
Speaker 1: is the starter. Well maybe you know, they don't have
Speaker 1: a monetary demand to have to pay Cam, make Cam
Speaker 1: the starters they paid him because they didn't pay him anything.
Speaker 1: They could cut him. They could cut him out right
Speaker 1: by the way. As a side note, for those people
Speaker 1: that have made it to the fifty six minute mark
Speaker 1: of this podcast. The Jets, the Bills, and the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: they all could have blocked this move. If you're the Bills,
Speaker 1: you're the Bill right there, the Bill. Let's take the
Speaker 1: Dolphins out of it. Who I still think, aren't you
Speaker 1: know they're not necessarily thinking about winning the division this year?
Speaker 1: But maybe who knows? The Bills really are for sure,
Speaker 1: and the Jets might be too. They were sitting at
Speaker 1: I believe two and twenty five million dollars of cap space,
Speaker 1: and I know that Cam would have had to come
Speaker 1: to those teams as the backup behind a young starter
Speaker 1: that's not going to give up that job. But instead
Speaker 1: of making one and a half million dollars, they could
Speaker 1: have gone, here, take ten million dollars. We'll have the
Speaker 1: best backup in the league, or one of the best
Speaker 1: backups in the league. And also we play keep away
Speaker 1: from the Patriots and the Bills and the Jets didn't
Speaker 1: do it. Maybe Cam wasn't interested in being a backup
Speaker 1: at all. Have they made public the ten million dollars
Speaker 1: incentives baked into his contract? You got like that, You
Speaker 1: like when guys are playing for stats. If he can
Speaker 1: make up to six or seven million with incentives, but
Speaker 1: he's not even guaranteed to be the starter right in
Speaker 1: with although he's the problem, Come on, he'll be the starter.
Speaker 1: He'll be all right. Thanks for making it to the
Speaker 1: very end of this podcast. We're grateful for all of
Speaker 1: you listening. If you missed any of the previous team
Speaker 1: by team breakdowns, we encourage you to go back through
Speaker 1: the previous podcast learn all about all the thirty two
Speaker 1: teams in the NFL fantasy style. We'll give the minute
Speaker 1: work for Dan Arnold two on the tweet right so
Speaker 1: people mark for everything you ever want to know about
Speaker 1: Dan Arnold, a boy Everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is a
Speaker 1: production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my
Speaker 1: heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Speaker 1: or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.