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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Matt perelt with you every single morning here off the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel and wherever you get your audio podcast.

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Speaker 1: This podcast being brought to you by Omaha Steaks dot Com.

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Speaker 1: slash Juice. All right, so we lose the parlay thanks

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Speaker 1: to Quinnipiac losing outright. That was a bummer. Sabers win

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Speaker 1: got that. Rockets won the game outright forget you know,

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Speaker 1: plus four they won the game outright. Quinnipiac came in

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Speaker 1: tied at the brake, lose at home, blow apart the night,

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Speaker 1: down a half the unit there. The over does not

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Speaker 1: come in for hockey, down one point one units there,

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Speaker 1: so we're down one point six units on the night.

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Speaker 1: This puts us into a predicament. Okay, not a great week,

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Speaker 1: losing week going at the moment, let me quickly do

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Speaker 1: some math here to find out just how down we

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Speaker 1: are on the week. It's not been it's not been

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Speaker 1: great to be completely frank, one of those weeks, one

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Speaker 1: of those months, not great on that. Let's see, so

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Speaker 1: we are not down to not down a ton That

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Speaker 1: three and zero really did help obviously coming back with that.

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Speaker 1: So that's two point four, three point nine to four.

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Speaker 1: We're down like two units about for the week. So

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Speaker 1: we can get out of it. Okay, we can get

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Speaker 1: out of it here with a good Saturday and a

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Speaker 1: good Sunday. So here's the thing. There is a UFC

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Speaker 1: card tonight that I might want to get involved with,

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Speaker 1: maybe even officially, don't know yet. There are NBA games

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Speaker 1: in hockey games that I might want to get involved with.

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Speaker 1: I don't know yet. It's a big day. Got three

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Speaker 1: college basketball bets for you guys, but I don't know

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Speaker 1: exactly what else I'm going to add, if anything. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I also haven't bet sided sorry totals in a really

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Speaker 1: long time, and we've been missing on college basketball because

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Speaker 1: I think right now the numbers are getting very sharp.

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Speaker 1: The books are being are they have the data they need.

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Speaker 1: The numbers are one possession here or there. So I've

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Speaker 1: got two totals to bet on today, which is a

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Speaker 1: little bit unusual for me. But haven't done this, but

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Speaker 1: I think maybe we dip our toe back into it,

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Speaker 1: just just to see how it's going to go. So

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Speaker 1: let's start with Alabama taking on Ucky. This number opened

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Speaker 1: where you would go, Wow, this game has to be

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Speaker 1: bet over. It's getting bet under because the total was

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Speaker 1: extremely high. And I think everyone has seen the numbers

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Speaker 1: with Kentucky and how they play at home and what

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Speaker 1: they look to do they run. Alabama does the exact

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Speaker 1: same thing. Kempom has this at one seventy eight for

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Speaker 1: a total. The total is down to one seventy four.

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Speaker 1: Now if you take one seventy four and you look

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Speaker 1: at how these games have gone for Kentucky and Alabama

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Speaker 1: this year, Bama is nine and three to the over

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Speaker 1: on the road. Kentucky is twelve and three to the

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Speaker 1: over over their last also at home. Last three games

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Speaker 1: for Kentucky have all gone under, but two of those

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Speaker 1: games were on the road at LSU and at Oliburn.

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Speaker 1: Ole miss also went under at home, but Gonzaga won

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Speaker 1: seventy one and a half went over by two and

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Speaker 1: a half points. Tennessee one fifty eight and a half

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Speaker 1: went over by thirty six and a half points. Florida

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Speaker 1: won seventy and a half, went over by fourteen and

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Speaker 1: a half points. Georgia won sixty three and a half

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Speaker 1: went over by thirty seven and a half points. Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State one fifty six game went over by eleven and

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Speaker 1: Missouri won sixty game went over by seven. Missouri was

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Speaker 1: ninety to seventy seven. But you're looking at home games

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Speaker 1: were in the conference where it's gone Missouri over, Missippi

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Speaker 1: State over, Georgia, over Florida over, Tennessee over, and then

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss is The only game was cho It was

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Speaker 1: the last home game did not go over for Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Six sorry, five in a row six and last seven

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Speaker 1: have gone over on the road at LSU one sixty

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Speaker 1: nine over by thirty two points. On the road against

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Speaker 1: Auburn one sixty one and a half went over by

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Speaker 1: eighteen and a half points. On the road against Georgia

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Speaker 1: one sixty seven, it went under, but Tennessee one fifty

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Speaker 1: nine went over Missippi State one fifty four went over.

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Speaker 1: First game against Vanderbilt, that game went under by five

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Speaker 1: points at one fifty eight, so that game's under. So

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Speaker 1: Vanderbilt on the road went under, Missippi State went over,

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Speaker 1: Tennessee went over, Georgia went under, Auburn over LSU over.

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Speaker 1: So two games under in conference Alabama nine and four

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Speaker 1: to the over five in a row, eight and two

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Speaker 1: over the last ten and nine and three away from

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Speaker 1: home for the Crimson Tide again. This is set for

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Speaker 1: one seventy eight for ken Pom numbers one seventy four.

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Speaker 1: The pros betting this under just thinking it's two darn high.

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Speaker 1: But I think we hit the basement. I think one

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Speaker 1: seventy four it's gonna be the basement that's gonna be

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Speaker 1: as low as this is going to go open. At

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Speaker 1: one seventy nine, we're down to one seventy four, one

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Speaker 1: seventy four and a half. We're coming in here and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna jump in here and take a one seventy four. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we'll do one seventy four and a half. That's that's

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Speaker 1: a number you can get regularly right now, one seventy

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Speaker 1: four and a half over Alabama Kentucky one seventy four

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Speaker 1: and a half. We're jumping in Bama Kentucky one seventy

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Speaker 1: four and a half. I think one seventy four was

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Speaker 1: the low. It may be harder to get there elsewhere,

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Speaker 1: So I'll give you the half. I'll give you the hook.

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Speaker 1: One seventy four and a half for Alabama and Kentucky. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Virginia in North Carolina complete different handicap sixty seven sixty

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Speaker 1: three final score, four point win for North Carolina. Here

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Speaker 1: according to KEMPOM, that's a one thirty total. Well, one

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Speaker 1: thirty and a half is the current total for North

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Speaker 1: Carolina and Virginia. It's pretty well painted at one thirty

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Speaker 1: and a half, opened at one thirty two and a half,

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Speaker 1: down to one thirty and a half. I don't want

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Speaker 1: it to go below one thirty. Okay, that's a key

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Speaker 1: number there. I do not want to see go below

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Speaker 1: one thirty. But when you look at the numbers, it

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Speaker 1: is unbelievable. For Virginia, they are ten and five to

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Speaker 1: the under at home. North Carolina is eight and six

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Speaker 1: to the under. At on the road, North Carolina is

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Speaker 1: ten and five to the under in the ACC. Virginia

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Speaker 1: actually is nine and seven to the over in the ACC.

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Speaker 1: But you look at the last home game against Wake

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Speaker 1: Forest one twenty nine, it went under by thirty three points.

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Speaker 1: At home against Pittsburgh, that game did go over at

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Speaker 1: one twenty two, though this is a one thirty and

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Speaker 1: a half number that we're dealing with. Against Miami at

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Speaker 1: home one thirty one and a half, game went under

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Speaker 1: by thirty three and a half points. Notre Dame did

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Speaker 1: go over for them, but NC State won thirty and

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Speaker 1: a half, the same number we're dealing with right now.

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Speaker 1: Under by eighteen and a half points on the flip

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Speaker 1: side on the road for North Carolina over against Syracuse,

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Speaker 1: under against Miami, under against Georgia Tech, under Florida State

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Speaker 1: on the road, under Boston College on the road, under

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Speaker 1: NC State on the road, under Clemson on the road,

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Speaker 1: under Pittsburgh on the road. They've been an under machine here.

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Speaker 1: I know one thirty and a half is a low number.

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Speaker 1: I get that that's a scary number to bed under.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna bed under under one thirty and a

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Speaker 1: half North Carolina and Virginia. I think Tony Bennett's team

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Speaker 1: is going to take the air out of the ball,

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Speaker 1: slow it down dramatically. Yes, Virginia can score at times.

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Speaker 1: Yes North Carolina can fill it up at times. But

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Speaker 1: I'm going under under one thirty and a half here

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Speaker 1: for one point one units with North Carolina and Virginia.

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Speaker 1: All right, So Bama UK Bama Kentucky over one seventy

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Speaker 1: four and a half, Virginia in North Carolina under one

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Speaker 1: thirty and a half, both for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: And let's go to the first game of the day.

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Speaker 1: That is Houston at Baylor Bonker's Atmosphere. It's two and

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Speaker 1: a half painted Houston ats on the road. They're three

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Speaker 1: and eight, three and eight at home Baylor eight four

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Speaker 1: and one home team with points, home team catching points.

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Speaker 1: It's so hard to win on the road. Look, kempom

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Speaker 1: loves Houston. Number one team in the country. Three losses

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Speaker 1: on the road to Kansas, on the road to TCU,

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Speaker 1: on the road to Iow State. Only three losses on

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Speaker 1: the year for Houston. This is the first trip for

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Speaker 1: Houston to Baylor as a member of the Big Twelves.

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Speaker 1: A three point win Bay four Houston, according to KEMPOM.

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Speaker 1: Up against Baylor, the number two and a half. I

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Speaker 1: don't think the books would go to three, but maybe

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Speaker 1: late money will come in and it'll be on Houston

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Speaker 1: to drive the number to three. If you guys get three,

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Speaker 1: I like it even more. But this thing is cemented

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Speaker 1: at two and a half open at two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's stuck on two and a half. No one's getting

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Speaker 1: off of it. The total at one thirty six has

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Speaker 1: come down to one thirty four. So we don't like

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Speaker 1: the side in this game. You can play the under

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Speaker 1: if you would like. But Houston's just twelve twelve and

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Speaker 1: two ats on the year while Baylor is fifteen eight

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Speaker 1: and two on the year, and I think this is

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Speaker 1: a big opportunity here for Baylor. It is Baylor's offense

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Speaker 1: up against the defense for Houston offensive efficiency Baylor fourth,

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Speaker 1: defensive efficiency Houston first, Baylor effective field goal percentage ninth,

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Speaker 1: Houston effective field goal percentage defense second. Three point shooting

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Speaker 1: three point percentage Baylor third, Houston defense fourteenth, Baylor two

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Speaker 1: point percentage forty first, Houston defense second. It's unbelievable. Just

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Speaker 1: look at the offensive rebounding for Houston. Offensively, they're not good.

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Speaker 1: They're two hundred and sixty third, and two point percentage

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty fifth in three point percentage two

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty fourth, an effective field goal percentage sixteenth

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Speaker 1: in adjusted efficiency. It all comes down to the rebounding.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they get thirty eight point seven percent of

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Speaker 1: the offensive boards available to them. That's fifth best in

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Speaker 1: the country. Throw the ball at the rim, go get it.

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Speaker 1: That's Houston basketball. They also don't have their free throws.

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Speaker 1: By the way, sixty eight point two percent free throw

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Speaker 1: percentage is three hundred and tenth in college basketball. When

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Speaker 1: you're on the road trying to win a crazy environment

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Speaker 1: like Baylor in Waco. CBS has this game on the

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Speaker 1: Big Bird. It is a noon Eastern time nine am

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Speaker 1: Pacific time. I'm tip I'm taking Baylor plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half for one point one units. I initially liked Houston.

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Speaker 1: I flipped on this to Baylor, got talked into it

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Speaker 1: my cost Dave Sheriffan and my other shows. He liked Baylor,

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Speaker 1: I liked Houston. He made a strong case for Baylor.

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Speaker 1: It's winning at home in college basketball really hard to do.

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Speaker 1: Houston's walking into a buzzsaw here. I think Baylor is

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Speaker 1: going to have a huge game, big opportunity for Baylor.

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Speaker 1: They lost their last game on the road at BYU.

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Speaker 1: Come home as a dog. This fits my trend, lose

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Speaker 1: on the road, come home home dog. I'm taking Baylor

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Speaker 1: at plus two and a half. Okay, So the Discord

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Speaker 1: channel is bettingpros dot Com slash chat. If I add NBA,

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Speaker 1: I'll put it in there. I got an NBA bet

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Speaker 1: right a lot last night, so you know who knows.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm warming up in the NBA. Didn't matter because

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Speaker 1: the pot it was two bets, but the Rockets came

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Speaker 1: in and won that game out right against the Phoenix Sun.

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Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens with that on Saturday. If

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Speaker 1: I liked someone else it or I may have a

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Speaker 1: bet for you for the UFC fight night in Mexico City,

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Speaker 1: May we may add. So we're gonna start with Bam

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Speaker 1: Mcentucky over one seventy four and a half, Virginia North

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Speaker 1: Carolina under thirty and a half, Baylor plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half for the initial three bets. Maybe more to

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Speaker 1: come here in the Discord channel, bettingpros dot Com slash chat.

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Speaker 1: Min As Matt Parotz following me across all socials at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt. Every morning Dale Juice Podcast, I was

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