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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing in job. I'm saying

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Speaker 1: it's a cash star. We'll see the most gamblers when

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Speaker 1: they go to gamble, they go to win. Oh god,

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Speaker 1: that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, it's just the ultimate kaba. You want to pack.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is up everybody? Hope you had a great holidays.

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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the King of sports books. I'm your host, Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 1: This is your NFL Week number thirteen betting preview. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers, underdog money lines,

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Speaker 1: and of course we'll crack open our weekly Sunday six

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Speaker 1: pack again to spread bets with the help of my

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Speaker 1: co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: What is good? How was your Thanksgiving?

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Speaker 2: That was great? No complaints here? How about yours?

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Speaker 1: Had some relaxation time? You know? Do us doing all

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Speaker 1: the work to get everything out by Wednesday actually is

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Speaker 1: cool because you get like a midweek break which you

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Speaker 1: really don't ever get. Let's do it. Let's get into

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 3: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: So we got Seattle at Dallas. Seahawks are plus nine

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Speaker 1: on the road in Jerry World, a total forty seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I do think this number, just from

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Speaker 1: a strict modeling standpoint, is a bit high for Dallas.

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Speaker 1: But it's Dallas or nothing for me. I'm not better

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Speaker 1: in this game, but it would be Dallas or nothing,

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Speaker 1: just because it's been so dominant at home. You've talked

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Speaker 1: about the changes they made coming out of the buy,

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Speaker 1: you know, throwing more in the early downs, really kind

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Speaker 1: of fixing some of the glitches in that offense. And

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Speaker 1: Gino Smith's going up against pressure and man cover. This

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Speaker 1: is the highest rate of man coverage defense in the

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Speaker 1: league through twelve weeks. That tends to give this Seahawk.

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Speaker 1: The Seahawks skill position players issues in addition to Smith,

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Speaker 1: who who really struggles and when he can't, you know,

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Speaker 1: when he doesn't have time in the pocket. That's where

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Speaker 1: you see the Seahawks. I mean, they're one of the

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Speaker 1: worst teams on third down. They kind of live off explosives.

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Speaker 1: So against the defense like this, kind of like San

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Speaker 1: Francisco last week, where you can kind of see the

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Speaker 1: blowout coming. Now you do have a full week off here,

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Speaker 1: so maybe Seattle will be a little more ready to go.

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Speaker 1: But terrible matchup from my vantage point. What are you thinking?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the line's a little hot, just like

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Speaker 2: my raw projection. But I mentioned this to you. You know,

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Speaker 2: for the last month, I don't want to get in

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Speaker 2: front of this Dallas train. Since the bye week, Dallas

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Speaker 2: has been on a roll. They did everything that I've

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Speaker 2: been wanting to do on offense, Dak running, throwing early downs,

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Speaker 2: more motion, offensive line now fully healthy. I mean you

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Speaker 2: saw them against the Eagles. They dominated that game and

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Speaker 2: just ran into the Eagles voodoo and they've been crushing

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Speaker 2: teams since. This seems rolling. I mean since the bye

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Speaker 2: week their defense is rolling. Two. They fixed they fixed

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Speaker 2: everything post digs. I mean, Doron Blend, you can throw

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Speaker 2: out the pick sixes. I mean he's given up to

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Speaker 2: hit the lowest passer rating in the NFL. Marquise Bell

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Speaker 2: better than vander Ash I mean, obviously they can get

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Speaker 2: a passers. It's not a great matchup for Gino smith

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Speaker 2: Man coverage heavy pressure. That's his kryptonite, which is Dallas

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Speaker 2: to a t. So this isn't a great matchup. It

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Speaker 2: is a good spot, so Seattle needs this game. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: I think they have Sam Frankum up again Philly. I

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Speaker 2: mean this is yeah, I know the NFC is weak,

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Speaker 2: but this is close to him. Must win for Seattle,

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Speaker 2: and Dallas has Philly on deck, so you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: they don't really want to run it up here, show

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Speaker 2: a lot stay healthy rest up for Philly next week.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's just not a great matchup. And we

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Speaker 2: also don't know how healthy Gino Smith is. You know,

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Speaker 2: Pete Carroll says he's a lot healthier looks night and

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Speaker 2: day different than what he did last week. But Pete

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Speaker 2: Carroll always has rosy injury reports for his players, so

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Speaker 2: I think it's a little high. It's a good spot,

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Speaker 2: bad matchup. I don't want to get in front of

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Speaker 2: this Dallas train so and I hate those night football

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Speaker 2: so probably a pass. If it got the ten. I'm

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Speaker 2: sure the Cowboys are gonna take heavy public action in

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Speaker 2: a primetime Island game. I'd probably make a small bet

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Speaker 2: on Seattle, but this Dallas teams rolling. I even if

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Speaker 2: I don't bet Seattle, I will be rooting for Seattle,

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Speaker 2: whether it's a fluki win a close loss, just so

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Speaker 2: Dallas doesn't get I went Dallas under a field goal

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Speaker 2: next week against the Eagles. That's the goal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel you there. That Eagles team. We will

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Speaker 1: I'm sure talk about at length coming up. I'll just

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Speaker 1: give everyone a trend to close with, just because you know,

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Speaker 1: I do think it's fascinating when we see favorite friends

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Speaker 1: that sustain over time, because those are the ones that

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Speaker 1: generally the books are going to be the quickest to adjust.

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Speaker 1: For Dak. Prescott favored by six points or more thirty

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Speaker 1: and eleven against the spread seventy three percent, six and

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Speaker 1: one eighty six percent this season. If you have bet

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Speaker 1: every DAK game where they're favored by six or more

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Speaker 1: justice year alone, you'd have a sixty three percent ROI

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Speaker 1: over his entire career. If you bet every one of

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Speaker 1: the forty two games there was one push in the

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Speaker 1: you have a forty one percent ROI according to our

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Speaker 1: Action Labs data. So the Cowboys are you know that

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Speaker 1: that team that you know Again, I think we both

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Speaker 1: agree that this line is a little bit high, probably

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Speaker 1: closer to eight eight, eight and a half. But I'm

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Speaker 1: starting to give Dallas a little bit more home field advantage,

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Speaker 1: you know, just this combination of this defense with the

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Speaker 1: pressure UH and Dak has always played better at home.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's been a real struggle for Team Steven.

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Speaker 1: Stay close, all right, Let's go right into our week

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Speaker 1: thirteen Sunday six packs Thursday for action.

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Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: So forty four forty two me, you're posing some ground here.

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Speaker 1: Two points for our first picks, one for the third,

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Speaker 1: one for the total, and one more if you sweep

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Speaker 1: all four of those, and shout out to our producer

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell wanted us to mention that our against the

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Speaker 1: spread record on these six pack picks this season is

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Speaker 1: forty three twenty eight and one. That's sixty percent. So

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Speaker 1: I hope everyone out there has been making some money

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Speaker 1: telling the picks, and we'll try to keep it, keep

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Speaker 1: it going.

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Speaker 2: And you're walking He's in all at one time. So

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Speaker 2: it's another good season. But as always say, it's onto

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Speaker 2: the next week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Eight out of twelve weeks we have been at

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Speaker 1: least four and two, four and two or five and one.

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Speaker 1: Still haven't got that six and oh sweep. Only one

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Speaker 1: time did we have a week with more than three losses,

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Speaker 1: So I've been fairly consistent. Hope. That's that's good. But

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Speaker 1: awful beats too. We've got to seven like once.

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Speaker 2: A year, beats it happens. Patriots one, the Texans, extra points, Ravens,

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Speaker 2: the Ravens gets the Cardinals. So yeah, it's always nice

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Speaker 2: when you can still be rolling along while makes them

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Speaker 2: makes those losses easier to swallow. When you're running bad

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Speaker 2: and not you know, picking winners and then having those losses,

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Speaker 2: that's when it's that's when it's the worst on Sundays.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, let's keep it rolling.

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Speaker 1: All right. For my first pick and the first overall

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Speaker 1: of the week, number thirteen Sunday six pack, going with

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Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals plus five and a half at the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh still the luckiest team in football. Uh

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Speaker 1: check out our luck rankings. They're great, but they kind

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Speaker 1: of point out when teams have been scoring a boffer

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Speaker 1: below they're expected score once you had for you know,

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Speaker 1: opponent field goal up and all the other kind of luck, lucky, random,

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Speaker 1: kind of things that happened in games that the team

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Speaker 1: has no control over. Listen, I've watched every snap of

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh all year, of every team, but you know, really

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Speaker 1: closely watched this Pittsburgh team because it was the first

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Speaker 1: game without Matt Canada, the first game and what four

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Speaker 1: years going over four hundred yards.

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Speaker 2: It was on over four hundred yards the day the

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Speaker 2: game before Matt Canada got there and then went over

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Speaker 2: four hundred yards. You can't make that up for the

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Speaker 2: first time the game after e left.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know we've seen this a bunch now

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Speaker 1: where uh, you know, unfortunately for the pod and you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of sometimes when you're getting in front of these

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Speaker 1: coaching changes, you just come out on the wrong side. Uh,

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Speaker 1: And you know that was the case last week. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: decided to have a decent offensive show and it could

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Speaker 1: have been more than you know, Deontay Johnson, I mean,

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Speaker 1: Deontay Johnson just is like, any thoughts on Deontay Johnson

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Speaker 1: before I get into this pit, because I feel like

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Speaker 1: I've watched this dude that that drop touchdown was soft.

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Speaker 1: Half the time he catches the pass, he's running sideways

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Speaker 1: or backwards something he just kind of is this dude

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Speaker 1: soft or what like?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a run play where he like didn't

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Speaker 2: block at all.

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Speaker 1: He didn't he didn't look for the cover of the

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Speaker 1: fumble that he walked right away from him.

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Speaker 2: He is yeah, I mean, yeah, it's I don't know,

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Speaker 2: there's definitely some something. There's definitely something going on there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's probably you know, mental attitude whatever, but you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe that touchdown deficit streak whatever did something to him.

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Speaker 1: But either way, Kenny Pickett is still thirtieth to thirty

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Speaker 1: eight quarterbacks in rating from a clean pocket. He just

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Speaker 1: misses a bunch of throws every week. And that's this

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Speaker 1: is why the Cardinals in this kind of spot are

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Speaker 1: I think a perfect kind of team to cover, even

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Speaker 1: if they end up maybe losing by three, but I

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Speaker 1: think the Cardinals win this game because can you Pickett,

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Speaker 1: It's not really gonna matter whether you got pressure or

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Speaker 1: you don't. He's just he just missed his throws, whether

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Speaker 1: he's pressured or not. He's actually been running well in

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Speaker 1: terms of turnover. Look lately, hasn't really turned it over,

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Speaker 1: so that could happen in any time given away he's

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Speaker 1: thrown the football. But on the other side, Kyler Murray

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Speaker 1: some mobility to get away from what and Hayward and

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Speaker 1: those guys. I just love the spot for both sides.

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Speaker 1: From the Pittsburgh perspective, you're coming off a big win

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Speaker 1: in the division. Now you're a home favorite. Mike tomwin

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Speaker 1: as a favorite by more than a field goal, coming

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Speaker 1: off a win twenty eight forty seven and one against

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Speaker 1: the spread just thirty seven percent. So bit we set

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Speaker 1: responsibility for that. We will not go gently. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: unleash hell here in December. We're gonna go into tag

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Speaker 1: mode because we have to, because that's what's required. And

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Speaker 1: on the other side, Arizona, who we faded last week

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Speaker 1: and they got blown out, you know after that first drive,

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Speaker 1: really couldn't get it going. But uh dog's coming off

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Speaker 1: a loss of twenty or more points one seventy nine

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Speaker 1: and four sixty percent since twenty seventeen against the spread.

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Speaker 1: And for whatever reason, and I talked about this last

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Speaker 1: week Kyler Murray, I don't know if he presses or

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Speaker 1: if it's something you know, more to do with just

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Speaker 1: the market in the bottles or what, but always seem

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Speaker 1: to overrate the Cardinals at home and then underrate them

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Speaker 1: on the road. So uh to that point, Kyler Murray

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Speaker 1: as a road underdog fourteen and four against the spread

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Speaker 1: seventy eight percent, covering by an average of eight point

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Speaker 1: three points per game. So I think Arizona can stay

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Speaker 1: close here, hoping we get Wilson back. Not sure if

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Speaker 1: we will, but that'll help. But you have Connor, you

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Speaker 1: have Murray, Marquise Brown McBride's playing well, and on the

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Speaker 1: other side, Arizona's defense is not good. Pittsburgh is gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to run and they'll put up their rushing yardage.

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Speaker 1: But I still don't trust Pickett. I still think he

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Speaker 1: can make just as many mistakes or just misthrows when

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Speaker 1: he's not pressured as when he is. So this Cardinal

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Speaker 1: defense that really not gonna get too much pressure. But

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Speaker 1: they do have some solid safeties, so they could. You know,

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Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett still could be in some trouble here on

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Speaker 1: some of his throws, even though his defense has been

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Speaker 1: one of the worst in the league. So you know,

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh could easily win his game like seventeen thirteen and

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Speaker 1: you cover the numbers. Oh, so this is the top

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Speaker 1: luck ranking matchup of the week. Pittsburgh number one, Arizona eighteenth,

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Speaker 1: a gap of thirty two percent is the highest of

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Speaker 1: the week, just edging out the forty nine ers against Philly,

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Speaker 1: which I have gut feeling we'll be talking about in

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Speaker 1: just a second.

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Speaker 2: I will have more on this game in the total section.

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Speaker 2: So I'll just go to my first pick and the

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Speaker 2: second overall of the week, thirteen Sunday six pack. I

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Speaker 2: am going with the San Francisco forty nine ers minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half. This is good up to minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty. Chop around as always and try to get

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Speaker 2: the best number, but I love the spot number one.

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Speaker 2: Let's just talk about the spot. Obviously a playoff revenge

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Speaker 2: here from last year. San Fran has had this game circled.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure that Shanahan has been working on a game.

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Speaker 2: He's probably been working on his script for this game

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Speaker 2: for I don't know, since that game ended when they

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Speaker 2: had to play with McCaffrey as quarterback. So san Fran

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Speaker 2: has this game circle. But more importantly, just where this

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Speaker 2: game comes in this schedule. Philadelphia got their playoff revenge

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Speaker 2: against Kansas City then and again they went right down

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Speaker 2: to the wire. Then on a short week They played

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Speaker 2: Buffalo in a game that goes to overtime, in a

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Speaker 2: complete war from start to finish. They were on the field,

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Speaker 2: their defense on the field for ninety five plays, and

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Speaker 2: they suffered injuries. Cunning Him, who's been pretty good at

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Speaker 2: linebacker position. They have no depth and he's out. You know,

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Speaker 2: Fletcher Cox got banged up, Davis got banged up. They

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Speaker 2: still don't have a slot. Their corners Bradbury and Slayer

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Speaker 2: is not playing well. Maybe that thirty Cliff, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: But when you look at this Eagles defense, it has

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Speaker 2: holes over the middle of the field. They can't cover

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Speaker 2: tight ends. The Mattocks injury is just so big that's

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Speaker 2: everywhere where the forty nine ers can attack. On the

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Speaker 2: other side, fort nine ers extended rest here. They played

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Speaker 2: on Thursday. Burford came back. They're basically fully healthy, and

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Speaker 2: they had a three game losing streak when Deebo and

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Speaker 2: Trent Williams, who's still the best left tackle football, were out.

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Speaker 2: They're eight to no when both them played, with an

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Speaker 2: average scoring margin of twenty one points. They are bludgeting teams.

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Speaker 2: They are playing unbelievable football. They also have added Chase

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Speaker 2: Young to and Lane Johnson might not go. He says

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Speaker 2: he's gonna play, but it's gonna rain and groin it.

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Speaker 2: What happened last week was gonna rain. You don't want

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Speaker 2: to put him out there with a groin. So I

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Speaker 2: think he's iffier. Lane Johnson's warrior, one of the best

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Speaker 2: right tackles in the NFL. But with rain the Cowboys

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Speaker 2: on deck, I think it's a little ifier than some

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Speaker 2: are saying. And that Eagles offense, which is completely out

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Speaker 2: of rhythm right now. They've just they just they've capitalized.

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Speaker 2: They've been one of the luckiest teams. I think they're

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Speaker 2: the second luckiest team. I don't know what's in the

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Speaker 2: water in Pennsylvania this year, but they've won four straight games,

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Speaker 2: trailing at the half, being out gained by one hundred

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Speaker 2: plus yards. They had no business beating the Bills, no

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Speaker 2: business beating the Cowboys. The Chiefs drop all of those passes.

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Speaker 2: You know, this is a team that's what seven and

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Speaker 2: one and one possession games this year. So Diaz holes

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Speaker 2: Oh is in rhythm. They're dealing with injuries. They really

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Speaker 2: miss Dallas Goddard. He says he's going to play. He

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Speaker 2: says he's trying to play. I think he's probably more

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Speaker 2: likely for next week against Dallas, but it's a banged

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Speaker 2: up team and it's got to be exhausted. After this run.

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Speaker 2: San fran comes in much healthier and much more well rested.

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Speaker 2: And San Francisco not only is their offense and when

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Speaker 2: their offense is at full strength, I think it's the

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL. Their defense has also made a

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Speaker 2: drastic turn around. I mentioned that they signed were they

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Speaker 2: traded for Chase Young. That was a huge weakness to

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Speaker 2: the other side of Bosa. And what that does. It

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Speaker 2: allows Bosa, Armstead, Hardgrave to get one on one matchups

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Speaker 2: and the defense has been so much better. And also

303
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:17,440
Speaker 2: what do they do so more pressure helps your secondary.

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Speaker 2: They also benched Isaiah Oliver, who has been who was

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Speaker 2: miserable eighty seven and a half percent reception percentage allowed.

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Speaker 2: I think he got thirty five receptions on forty targets,

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Speaker 2: worse than any corner and that includes Damary Mathis in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. He was in the slot. They moved Leonor

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Speaker 2: to slot where he's better suited, and then they moved

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Speaker 2: to Ambry Thomas outside. They put him outside on the

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Speaker 2: opposite of Tredaevius Ward, and he's been amazing. Ward and

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Speaker 2: Thomas are both top fifteen per FF and I think

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Speaker 2: what they could do here similar to what they did

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Speaker 2: against Seattle is I think he takes and you kind

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Speaker 2: of follow around brown Ward more physical corner, Thomas more

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Speaker 2: suited to cover, you know, a shiftier, speedier, more slender

317
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Speaker 2: receiver in Devonte Smith, and there's Lenor can come up

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Speaker 2: help in the run. The Eagles don't have a third

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Speaker 2: person to throw to right now. It's a major problem

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Speaker 2: in their offense. It's just Jaleen Hurts is getting a

321
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Speaker 2: little healthier, but you could still see he doesn't have

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Speaker 2: the same burst and that's a big problem for this offense.

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Speaker 2: When he's running and at full speed, the offense is

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Speaker 2: at a different level. So this Eagles offense is just Look,

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Speaker 2: I know they're ten to one, but they have been

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Speaker 2: skating by getting very fortunate in a number of different areas.

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Speaker 2: I think san Fran has had this game circled. They

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Speaker 2: match up really well on the defensive end. Their offense

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Speaker 2: can specifically take advantage of the weaknesses in this Philly defense.

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Speaker 2: I think san Fran is the spot. I think they're

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Speaker 2: going to come out the great script, get a lead here,

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Speaker 2: and I think the Philly luck finally runs out. Give

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Speaker 2: me the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. I'm curious as to what you

335
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,199
Speaker 1: think about the three, you know, normal juice, because I'm

336
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 1: assuming that you know, people are gonna listen to this

337
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 1: later in the week, and it looks like the Niners

338
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: probably close at minus three something with ninety percent of

339
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,640
Speaker 1: their games they've won in of their wins have been

340
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Speaker 1: by a touchdown or more dating back to the start

341
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Speaker 1: of last year. So how valuable is that three? I mean,

342
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,439
Speaker 1: it is the two and a half versus the three

343
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Speaker 1: to you in this spot.

344
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I guess if I had to still

345
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,159
Speaker 2: play it at if it was a flat three and

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Speaker 2: you wanted to play this, gal still play the forty

347
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Speaker 2: nine ers. But for the time being, well, you can

348
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 2: get up to minus one twenty, get that or buy

349
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Speaker 2: it to that.

350
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Speaker 1: I'm also assuming, because I've heard people say this, they'll

351
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Speaker 1: take the money line. What are your thoughts on that?

352
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 1: Right now, the money line is minus one fifty. I

353
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Speaker 1: assume if it goes to a flat three, it'll be

354
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Speaker 1: like minus one sixty ish.

355
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Speaker 2: In this particular case. You know, if it was a

356
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Speaker 2: flat three versus the minus one sixty, I would I

357
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Speaker 2: would go with the three, all right.

358
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Speaker 1: For my second pick, the third overall of the week

359
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: thirteen Sunday six pack, going with the Tennessee Titans plus

360
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 1: one at home against the Indianapolis Faults. And I like

361
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 1: this matchup for Tennessee, and the reason being is you

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00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 1: have two quarterbacks who are not good. You know, we

363
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 1: know Will Levis is a rookie. It's you know, it's

364
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: gonna be touch and go with him. But Gardner Minshew

365
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: is thirty second, tied for thirty second of thirty eight

366
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 1: passers and passer rating from a clean pocket according to PFF.

367
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 1: And you know, kind of like Kenny Pickett, it's, you know,

368
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 1: you just never quite know what you're gonna get as

369
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: far as the throws, the turnovers and whatnot. And Tennessee

370
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: the differ diferences. Tennessee their run game trending up, indiant

371
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 1: Appolis run game turning down for this matchup, and the

372
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: reason being Grover Stewart still out one more games suspended

373
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 1: for Indianapolis for performance enhancing drugs. He was the number

374
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: five graded run defender out of one hundred and thirty

375
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,880
Speaker 1: four qualified interior lineman at PFF, and the numbers bear

376
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 1: it out. Weeks one through six with Stewart in a lineup,

377
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 1: the Colts were fourteenth in EPA per rush week seven

378
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,719
Speaker 1: through twelve with Stewart out, thirty first in EPA per

379
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: rush thirty first, and success rate against the run as well,

380
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Speaker 1: So their bottom two run defense without without Grover Stewart,

381
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 1: it's been bad. And Tennessee the tackle situation has been

382
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 1: a mess. But these guys Duncan and then ray Uns

383
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 1: raid Uns. I think that's how you announced it, doing

384
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: Raidens raids. Yeah, so you know he's kind of a

385
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:08,679
Speaker 1: utility guy. Both these guys not great pass blockers, obviously

386
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: they wouldn't be down the depth chart, but they both

387
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 1: graded out well and run blocking. So in this kind

388
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 1: of matchup, you just got two wild card quarterbacks. I'm

389
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: getting the better run run offense, and the better run

390
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 1: match up here with Tennessee because on the other side,

391
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor doubtful just had surgery on his stump. He's

392
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: gonna miss the next couple of weeks. So Jack Moss

393
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: played well, really well against Tennessee in that first game.

394
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: But remember that Jeffery Simmons got hurt mid game. I

395
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 1: think Tart got hurt in that game, too, but I

396
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:49,480
Speaker 1: know Jeffery Simmons did. But Tennessee, you know that was

397
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: a blip. Tennessee number two in run defense DVA, and

398
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: this is you know, this is what they've been the

399
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: last couple of years. Jeffrey Simmons just anchor that line

400
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 1: and they have some horses to stop the run. So

401
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: two shaky quarterbacks, the better team, the better run matchup

402
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: is with the Titans. Titans are at home, and you know,

403
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 1: it's always a small sample when you're talking about home

404
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 1: road splits within a given season, but it's been night

405
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 1: and day for the Titans at home versus on the

406
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 1: road or in London. I guess it was one of

407
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: their games but at home, true home games, because a

408
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 1: London game I think counted as a home game. But

409
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: in their four true home games in Nashville, four and

410
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 1: oh straight up, four and oh against the spread, covering

411
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 1: by just under eleven points per game on average, averaging

412
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: twenty four point eight points a game, giving up fifteen,

413
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: a point differential of just under ten. Three hundred and

414
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: forty five total yards per game, allowing two hundred eighty

415
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: eight total yards game, so totally yards differential of plus

416
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: fifty seven. Then when they're on a road, oh to

417
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: seven straight up one and six against the spread, ats

418
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: margin negative eight points on average, averaging just twelve points

419
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: a game away out of Tennessee, giving up twenty three

420
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 1: and a half negative eleven point differential and a yardage

421
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: differential of over negative one hundred, negative one thirteen. So

422
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: you're going from a plus fifty seven in yardage at

423
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: home to negative one thirteen on a road. So this

424
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: team and it makes sense. I mean they you know,

425
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 1: o Y is not great, so they need kind of

426
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: those intangibles and that home crowd. But when they do,

427
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: they're well coached team and they can run the ball,

428
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: and if they get a lead, it should be good

429
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 1: for them. But vrabel home dog twelve and seven sixty

430
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 1: three percent against the spread, covering by five point three

431
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 1: points per game, and rabel as a home dog or

432
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 1: a favorite by less than a field goal, because I

433
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:09,360
Speaker 1: realized that this number could jump to Tennessee minus one.

434
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 1: There's not really much difference between plus one and minus one,

435
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: so don't you know, don't think that's like a massive jump,

436
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: but it could go that direction. Mike rabel as a

437
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 1: home dog or a favorite by less than a field

438
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: goal fifteen to nine, sixty three percent against the spread,

439
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: covering by an average of three point seven points per game.

440
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: So I think Tennessee should win this one. Thought they

441
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 1: should have won the one in Indianapolis, but that was

442
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 1: the one where you know, they planned for Richardson and

443
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: then Minshew came in, and then Simmons got hurt and

444
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: Moss busted off a bunch of explosives, so a lot

445
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 1: of things went wrong. They lost by one score. I

446
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: think they get it done here. Give me the Titans

447
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: plus one at home against the Colts.

448
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: I have no feel on this one, so I'll try

449
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 2: to root you in. Although a Colt's loss here would

450
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 2: really help the Bills. You want to take a flyer

451
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 2: in the Bills. This is the time I think they're

452
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 2: going to go on a run. But a Colts loss

453
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: he would really help them all right. For my second

454
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: pick in the fourth overall the Sunday six pack, I'm

455
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 2: going with the Houston Texans minus three and a half

456
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 2: at home against the Denver Broncos. We both love Stroud

457
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 2: tank Del didn't practice type, but he's gonna be good

458
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 2: to go. I think they might have their entire receiving

459
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 2: poor back this week. No Brown I think maybe that

460
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,239
Speaker 2: timetable wise, this is usually when he should come back.

461
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 2: We'll see.

462
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: I haven't had all top four together since week one,

463
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: I believe, so it's been Yeah.

464
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 2: But this is mainly a complete cell of Denver. I

465
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: was on the Denver bandwagon, leading the bandwagon about the

466
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 2: defensive improvements. Give McMillan in the slot you've removed Mathis

467
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 2: you put in Morow. They got guys like Browning and

468
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: Jones back. Healthy D definitely was not historically bad. The

469
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 2: D is still bad. The Denver's one five straight and

470
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 2: everyone's saying playoffs, we're all all about Russell Wilson and

471
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: this resurgon. Okay, But first of all, of those five games,

472
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 2: three have come by combined five points. The other two

473
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 2: were against the Browns, who lost every starter in that

474
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 2: game and then were down to PJ. Walker and it

475
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 2: was the mess. And then they played in the homes

476
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 2: with the flu. In those five games, they beat the Chiefs, Packers, Bills, Vikings,

477
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: and Browns. Those teams went seven of sixteen scoring touchdowns

478
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: in the red zone eight of fifteen, four and fourth down.

479
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 2: Most importantly, sixteen turnovers to only two for the Broncos

480
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 2: five game winning streak plus fourteen turnover margin, forty four

481
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: of there one hundred and seventeen points during their five

482
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: game winning streak have come directly off of turnovers. That's

483
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: thirty eight percent. Still only averaging twenty three points per game.

484
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: Without the turnovers, they're averaging fourteen points per game. They

485
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 2: forced fourteen fumbles on the season, they'd recovered twelve. No

486
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 2: other team's recovered more than nine. I mean, and if

487
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 2: you look since the five game winning streaks started in

488
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: Week seven, Broncos seventh and EPA per play on D

489
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: guess what, EPA very heavily weight. It's heavily skewed by turnovers.

490
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 2: If you remove turnovers twenty fifth, success rate twenty fifth.

491
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 2: It's literally just been turnover luck for five games straight. Meanwhile,

492
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: over that same stretch, Texans D sixteenth and EPA per

493
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 2: play if you remove turnovers sixth and success rate second

494
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: versus the rush, which is huge because that's been the

495
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 2: engine of this entire you know, Broncos offense. They have

496
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 2: a good script and then it's hey, let's run it

497
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 2: and then give Russ easy throws. How about the offenses

498
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 2: since Week seven? If we remove turnovers EPA per play

499
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 2: Broncos twenty third, Texans fifth success rate Broncos twenty six,

500
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: Texans twelve. I mean, this Broncos team is still a

501
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: bottom third team in the NFL offense and defense. They've

502
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 2: just been getting every bounce possible for five games. Peak

503
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 2: of the market here. I think we mentioned this game

504
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 2: last week. This is the spot sell Denver. If they

505
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 2: beat Cleveland, Broncos d by the way eleventh highest flitz

506
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 2: rate and they get no pressure fourth lowest pressure rate. Well,

507
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: Stroud's been elite when he's been kept clean. Argue with

508
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: the best quarterback in the NFL this year, and he's

509
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: been good versus the blitz a little shake even you

510
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: can get pressure on him still as a young quarterback

511
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 2: without blitzing. Broncos can't do that. So this is just

512
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 2: a great matchup for the Texans both sides of the ball.

513
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 2: Complete cell hides his Denver team plus fourteen and turnovers

514
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 2: of the past five games, and they still won three

515
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: by a combined five points. I think there's at risk here.

516
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. I feel like the thing about Houston is they're

517
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 1: still leaving meat on the bone. I mean, with all

518
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: the with the kicker issues, I feel like there's a

519
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: drive that just ends in like a stupid penalty. Uh

520
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: each week. I mean, there's for as good as Stroud

521
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: and this Texan offense has been, they're like they should

522
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: have had more than nineteen against Ulanta, they should have

523
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: had more than twenty one against Jacksonville. So uh, good

524
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: spot for.

525
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 2: For positive coming.

526
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, that's that's what I'm trying to say. I mean,

527
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: it's the eye test looks better than the end results.

528
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: Texans could be like a legit, just like how Burrow

529
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 1: ascended with the Bengals.

530
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 2: They could be the sleeper. There's only some, it seems

531
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: that could win the Super Bowl. The one that could

532
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 2: emerge as the sleeper because of the quarterback is the Texans.

533
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: You can't Maddam Emmadole is your kicker. I know that

534
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 2: their kicker got hurt. They caught him. They resigned to

535
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: the practice squad. Today. They worked out Brett Maher today.

536
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: Oh god, nah her Yeah, now her might be even worse.

537
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: I know.

538
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 2: Hopefully that doesn't burn us because we've been burned by

539
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: two bets on this Texas last week Ammondola comes up

540
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 2: an in short and then they don't have a kicker

541
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 2: to kick an extra point. But I think there's a

542
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 2: chance Texas by fourteen plus.

543
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: Okay, my third pick, the fifth overall of the week

544
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 1: thirteen Sunday six pack. For the first time all season,

545
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: I said I wasn't gonna bet on Frank Reich. He's

546
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: gone Carolina plus five and a half at Tampa Bay,

547
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 1: so number one. I don't think you're gonna get a

548
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 1: massive boost here from you know, the change in in coaches,

549
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 1: because you did have Thomas Brown calling plays before and

550
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: it didn't really seem to do anything. But at the

551
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: same time, we saw this Carolina team and you know,

552
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: there are some players. I know they got rid of

553
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: a lot of people, but there are a bunch of

554
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: guys that were on this team last year that are

555
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: still there. And we saw this team kind of perk

556
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 1: up from the coaching change last year. I think you

557
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: could see something like that this year as well. You know,

558
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: Carolina's defensive starting to come together under edgero Everro, who

559
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: I think we both respect. You know, weeks one through

560
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: seven before through the by allowing thirty one points a

561
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: game three hundred and forty two yards. They ranked thirty

562
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: first in success rate since Dubuy from thirty one points

563
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: all out to twenty one, from three hundred and forty

564
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: two yards per game allowed to two hundred and fifty

565
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,959
Speaker 1: nine and the success rate eighteenth and if you remove turnovers,

566
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: sixteenth in success rate and tenth in EPA per play.

567
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: So they haven't been, you know, just kind of benefiting

568
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: from turnovers if anything, the other team have. But you know,

569
00:33:56,120 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: I'm just hoping that offensively. You know, you got rid

570
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: of Reich, who I think the game passed by uh

571
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: and then you got rid of a couple of his assistants.

572
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: He got rid of the quarterback coach of account and

573
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 1: Duce Staley, who probably was the reason they kept feeding

574
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders. When he's averaging like one point two yards

575
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 1: of carry, it's clear to anyone to see Cuba Hubbard

576
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: is the better back. But I mean, shouts deduced because

577
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: I cleared my Cuba under last week by I think

578
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: a yard and a half because Miles Sanders kept checking

579
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 1: back in the game even though Tuba was out playing

580
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: them running circles around him. But I think you're just

581
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: kind of getting better, uh, you know, better rotation in

582
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 1: the backfield. I think with Black cheer active, I think

583
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: you're getting Steveen back involved. He's been quiet, and uh,

584
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: this is a defense in Tampa Bay that's really been regressing.

585
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: They got a lot of guys banged up. You know,

586
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: even if they end up playing, you know, both corners,

587
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: Uh Davis, Yeah, they're definitely hurt and they're all on

588
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: the injury report, so uh, this is one of them

589
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: they'll probably play. You also have Levante David questionable with

590
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: a groin, Devin White questionable with a foot. So you

591
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 1: have Halton Davis, Jamel Dean, Levante David, and Devin White.

592
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 1: Davis and Dean have ankles. That's four of your top

593
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 1: defensive players, all with lower leg with leg injuries. Part

594
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: of the reason by this defense has really been struggling.

595
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 1: So you're you're talking about a defense that's struggling and

596
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield favored by more than a field goal. With

597
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: Frank Reich out of the picture, and you know, potentially

598
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: some new wrinkles here and it could oh there's nowhere

599
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 1: to go nowhere to go but up for this Carolina offense.

600
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna sit here and tell you, like

601
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: what could or couldn't happen, or you know what they've

602
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 1: been bad at? What can improve everything's been bad? This

603
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: is the time to buy Carolina. This is the time

604
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 1: to I mean the Bucks. Remember how like what we

605
00:35:58,280 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 1: thought of the Bucks coming into the year, they were

606
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: right there. A lot of people thought they'd be worse

607
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: than Carolina. This team has lost what five of the

608
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 1: last six games after starting hot. Baker Mayfield's a five

609
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. He's thirteen and twenty four

610
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: thirty five percent against the spread as a favorite in

611
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 1: his career, failing to cover by an average of a

612
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: field goal per game in those spots. Todd goles as

613
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 1: a favorite by a field goal or more six and

614
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 1: thirteen thirty two percent in his career, failing to cover

615
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 1: by just over four and a half points per game

616
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 1: on average. And I talk about this is kind of

617
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 1: the time to buy Carolina Road underdogs with one or

618
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 1: fewer wins in their eight through twelfth game sixty three

619
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: thirty and five sixty eight percent against the spread over

620
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 1: the last two decades, covering by three point six points

621
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 1: per game, So I like the spot here for Carolina.

622
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 1: If Carolina is ever going to perk up, it might

623
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: be this game. You know, even if they only score thirteen,

624
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 1: I think they can hold the Bucks to sixteen and

625
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: get the cover. So give me the Panthers the first

626
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 1: time all year, plus five and a half at Tampa.

627
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 2: Since Week seven, TAPA twenty ninth, Tampa D twenty ninth,

628
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 2: and Epapri play, they are leaking oil. Yeah, I generally

629
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 2: don't think that there can be I mean, historically, if

630
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 2: you look, there is a slight bump when a coach

631
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,240
Speaker 2: is fired that first week. If there's a reason to believe,

632
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 2: you know, if there's like low hanging fruit, I think

633
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 2: there can be some significant changes. Bryce Ton's obviously been

634
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 2: bad and small. You can't really see downfield. He just

635
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:45,439
Speaker 2: looks overwhelmed. The front office went to Reich and said

636
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 2: they need to incorporate more RPOs into his game plan,

637
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 2: which suits Bryce Young. Well, that's he's had a lot

638
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 2: of success doing them in the past. Reich said, no,

639
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 2: doesn't fit his system. So I asume you're going to

640
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 2: see a lot more RPOs. Reike's a stubborn guy just

641
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 2: kept trying to fit Young. You know, stay Young is

642
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 2: a square peg into Reich's circle into his hole that

643
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: came out weird. I think we're getting into a weird

644
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: area here, so like, you need to make some adjustments,

645
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 2: man help him out. So I think that you'll see

646
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 2: a game plan that's more conducive to the skill set

647
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 2: and what Bryce Young is comfortable doing. And there's also

648
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 2: the element of surprise, right like, so you'll have these

649
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 2: new wrinkles that Tampa is not ready for and youn't

650
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 2: even mentioned it might not be Baker Mayfield could be trashed.

651
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 2: Who's horrendous. Mayfield hurt his ankle in the game last week,

652
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 2: did come back but couldn't put any weight on it

653
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 2: after the game, said it was all adrenaline. So's he's

654
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 2: definitely not one hundred percent. So we'll see how that

655
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 2: progresses throughout the week. So I'm on this also, so

656
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 2: I like it. For my third pick in the sixth

657
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 2: overall the Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Green

658
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 2: Bay Packers plus six against the Kansas City Chiefs on

659
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:14,280
Speaker 2: Sunday Night. Number one is a great spot. Packers extended

660
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 2: rest here getting healthier, especially on the defensive end. Should

661
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 2: get some guys back everyone, lot of guys in their

662
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 2: secondary of practicing. Chiefs meanwhile, coming off a division win,

663
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 2: Bills on deck, traveling, you know, into the cold non

664
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 2: conference game, kind of a sleepy spot Packers and a

665
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 2: must win. That win over the line's huge, hat a

666
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 2: lot of momentum. You want to really get back in

667
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 2: the playoff picture, you gotta win this game. They've also

668
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 2: had four losses by a combined ten points, been one

669
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 2: of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. And Jordan Love

670
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 2: is playing his best football of the season, and I

671
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 2: think he's a little undervalued in the market. And the

672
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 2: chiefs of the offense just doesn't look right. There's some

673
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 2: flashes here and there, but man, they go through these

674
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: long out and it's all in the receivers, just so

675
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,479
Speaker 2: many drops and there's no rhythm and they can't figure

676
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: out who to play. Just at EPA per play among

677
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 2: all quarterbacks since week seven, which was after the Packers

678
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 2: buy when you've started to see flashes from young from

679
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 2: Love and his numbers are better since week nine, But

680
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 2: let's take week seven for a bigger sample size. Just

681
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 2: at EPA for play among quarterbacks. Love ninthmes tenth adjusted

682
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 2: completion percentage the same Love two more air yards than

683
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 2: the Homes. So this Chiefs team, look, their defense is good,

684
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 2: but the Packers' offensive line can handle their front. And

685
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 2: that's a lot of what is driving this Chiefs defensive

686
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 2: research inspect all was great. You know, their corners are

687
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: really good, but they're also getting a lot of pressure,

688
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 2: getting a lot of sacks. Love's playing very confidently right now.

689
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to run a little bit.

690
00:40:58,160 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: I think lots of supposives and this is when you

691
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 2: want to Dade Mahomes favorite overfield goal and that offense.

692
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 2: Just I don't really trust him to win by a

693
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 2: ton of margin right now, like what I'm seeing from

694
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:13,479
Speaker 2: the Packers of late gimme Green Bay and the six

695
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 2: points at home in a great spot.

696
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jordan Love is playing a lot better. You know,

697
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: the better he plays, the better he plays, because he's

698
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 1: one of those quarterbacks that really struggles when he gets

699
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 1: behind in games. You know, I made the mistake of

700
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: betting on him to throw a pick on Thanksgiving because

701
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 1: that was their biggest spread of the year. You know,

702
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: they hadn't been plused more than three and a half.

703
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:38,720
Speaker 1: All ten of Love's picks this year have come when trailing,

704
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: you know, so it's you know, he kind of throws

705
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:44,280
Speaker 1: it up, he gets, you know, and Christian Watson sometimes

706
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: he puts the ball on Harm's way. But you know,

707
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: Watson's starting to wake up. Jaden Reid, I mean that

708
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: that received that those young receivers are really coming into

709
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: their own. It's a shame Musgrave went down with the injury,

710
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 1: but that's given a chance for Tucker Kraft another day

711
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 1: two pick if it was so. Yeah, like this is

712
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 1: the time of year when if the packers are gonna

713
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 1: make some noise, this is when you would expect it,

714
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 1: because we both talked about they had to just everyone

715
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 1: was young. Everyone was first and second year is first

716
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 1: and second year on the skill position, so you expect

717
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 1: you know some you know, some some rough patches and

718
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 1: some growing pains. Yeah, grown pains exactly. So now you're

719
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: starting to see Jordan Love a lot more efficient, more accurate,

720
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 1: and the receivers are helping them out too, making making

721
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 1: plays on the ball and making plays after the catch.

722
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 2: So you know, and the young that goes such a yeah, all.

723
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 1: Right, so let's see what do you got here quarterback wise,

724
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 1: you got pretty stroud and love not bad. I got

725
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 1: Kyler will Levis and Bryce Young, so I got like

726
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: the the top. I got some like draft picks that

727
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,439
Speaker 1: really haven't lived up to the hype. And you got

728
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 1: the emerging All Stars. So you definitely got got.

729
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: The only quarterbacks who have been drafted in the past

730
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 2: three years that have worked out so far. There's been

731
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 2: so many bad quarterback trap choices over the last three years.

732
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: Stuck. You have the Niners mins two and a half,

733
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 1: Texans minus three and a half, Packers plus six. I

734
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 1: have the Cardinals plus five and a half, Titans plus one,

735
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,959
Speaker 1: and the Panthers plus five and a half. That's gonna

736
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:23,359
Speaker 1: do it for our Week thirteen Sunday six pack. Now

737
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 1: it's time for our Week thirteen coaches pep Talk.

738
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 2: I don't go what you to pull this archer boll

739
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: trap all right to your airbite?

740
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 1: Do you understand that this week's coaches pep Talk comes

741
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 1: to us from the greatest voice in NFL history, my

742
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: favorite voice. I can listen to this guy all day,

743
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 1: John Facenda, nicknamed the Voice of God. And we're gonna

744
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 1: dedicate this to the forty nine Ers, Texans, Packers, Cardinals, Titans,

745
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 1: and Carolina Panthers, all of our six pack teams, all

746
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 1: of them. Be savage again and get it done for us.

747
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 1: Still looking for that first six and oh week of

748
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: the year super Bowl.

749
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: Dreams that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker and fade

750
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 3: in the autumn. Shadows and hopes that were high in

751
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 3: the heat of September and will can die in the

752
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 3: chill of November. November can be cold and gray. November

753
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:30,400
Speaker 3: can be surly, with bitter rain upon the world and

754
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 3: winter coming early. Do you fear the force of the wind,

755
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 3: the slash of the rain, Go face them and fight them.

756
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 3: Be savage again. The palms of your hands will thicken,

757
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 3: the skin of your cheek will tan. You'll grow ragged

758
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,720
Speaker 3: and weary and wet. But you must do the best

759
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 3: you can.

760
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 1: I could just listen to this guy all day. This

761
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:07,320
Speaker 1: was who I heard watching the NFL films of the sixties, seventies,

762
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: and eighties. I didn't even know there were other narrators.

763
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 1: John Facenda, Voice of God, we love it. I think

764
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 1: we might just need to do him. Coaches, pep talks

765
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 1: for the rest of the year because this is it

766
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 1: just just guessed me in a move for some football man.

767
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to our favorite total of the week.

768
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 1: We are thirteen eleven on totals this year so far,

769
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 1: so that could be a little better. But you went

770
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: out first for the six back, you're at first for

771
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: the total. Stuck where you're.

772
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 2: Going, Pittsburgh Arizona over forty one. So I faded Pittsburgh

773
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 2: last week. Was expecting a little more from Jake Browning

774
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 2: to not get Yeah, even if you look at his yards,

775
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: seventy of those yards were tipped deflection. Yeah, like it

776
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,839
Speaker 2: was uglier than that final blots, which is a terrible bet.

777
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 2: Credits to Steeler's Like I said, Steel's four hundred yards

778
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 2: of offense. The last time I did that was when

779
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 2: Canada's gone, and I just I said to myself, look,

780
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 2: Pickett is terrible, and he is, but he refused to

781
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 2: throw the in between the hashes. He actually was friar moo.

782
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 2: Being back. The Cardinals defense is something special. I mean,

783
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 2: they don't they can't do They don't do anything right,

784
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 2: like would they don't do anything while their safeties are okay,

785
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 2: that's it.

786
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

787
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 2: I mean Marco Wilson is dreadful. So the Cardinals cats

788
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 2: up anybody. And I've said it before, I think that

789
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 2: the Steelers defense is overrated, especially on the back end,

790
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 2: especially in coverage. This is where Kyler Murray's legs are

791
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: going to come into play. You know, he can extend plays.

792
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 2: Gannons are playing like we're really aggressive, which I like.

793
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 2: You know, he'll go for two, go for four downs,

794
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 2: and he's basically just saying like, you know, we know

795
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 2: we're over match, so we're not going to play completely conservative,

796
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 2: which I like for an over he's not gonna say like, oh,

797
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 2: we're the worst team, let's punt on fourth and two

798
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,399
Speaker 2: from the fifties. He's gonna go for it. He's gonna

799
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,439
Speaker 2: go for two sometimes. And yeah, I think this total

800
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 2: is a little bit too low. So I think the

801
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 2: steels with the ball and I think the Cardinals actually

802
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,959
Speaker 2: a success move in the ball. I think this game

803
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: ends up like, let's call it twenty four twenty Yeah, I.

804
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: Can see that. Yeah, and you know, do you also

805
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 1: have the Kyler Murray scrambling over correction coming because he

806
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: scrambled for that touchdown on the first drive and then

807
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 1: didn't run again the whole game. It's like that that

808
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:32,359
Speaker 1: ram team and just always in the heads of the Cardinals. Yep,

809
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 1: but just hoping my Cardinals get there for the cover.

810
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: I'm going Patriots charges under forty one for my total lies.

811
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 1: The Patriots still don't have a quarterback. I guess Zappi

812
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 1: is taking first team reps this week. Faily Zappi. He's

813
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 1: really been struggling at throwing, just the same as Mac Jones.

814
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,839
Speaker 2: But they just throw it right to the defense the mark.

815
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it's it's gotta be something mental with

816
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 1: Mac Jones. I mean that's that's is no way. It's

817
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 1: like every like third or fourth play in like opponent territory,

818
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: like it's just straight to the defense. I don't know

819
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: what's going on with him, but Zappi has been one

820
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 1: of the least accurate quarterbacks in the short range zero

821
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 1: to nine yards, which is those are gimmies in the NFL,

822
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 1: but not for Zappi. He this season he ranks a

823
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: last of fifty one quarterbacks in accuracy over the short range,

824
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 1: and last year he was fifty second of sixty.

825
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 2: Eight, so near the bottom of Hell.

826
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's too small and then last year with who

827
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 1: is It Matt Patricia, I guess you did sees at

828
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 1: least they they kind of let Zappi be a little

829
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 1: bit more of a you know, just throw throw some

830
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 1: up downfield. But when he came in for Matt Jones

831
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,439
Speaker 1: in that last game, it was just screening after screen.

832
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,359
Speaker 1: His average up the target was two point three. So

833
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,319
Speaker 1: at this point, I feel like the Patriots, they feel

834
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,240
Speaker 1: like their offensive broken. Your best receivers and a concussion

835
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:06,240
Speaker 1: protocol pop Douglas. So you might see a eighty percent

836
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 1: plus of DeVante Parker, which is just negative in terms

837
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 1: of scoring points. And on the other side, this Charger team.

838
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 1: You can always kind of the Chargers to squander one

839
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 1: or two scoring opportunities that they probably should should make.

840
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 1: And it's still you know, neither team I think is

841
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: going to be able to run very well. So you

842
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 1: can see some long some thirty second long thirty longs.

843
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 1: Not great for the Patriots, Okay for the Chargers, but

844
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: the Charges really are. It's not And you know, maybe

845
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: they get Palmer back this week, but Guidan's been bad,

846
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 1: Clinton Johnson's been terrible. Yeah, Echo works slow, and you

847
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 1: know last year Ecwar asked for a reduction in workload,

848
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 1: and at the time I thought that was really odd

849
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 1: because it's coming off those two monster years. But you know,

850
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: it's you know, maybe he kind of knows his own

851
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: body and it's because he doesn't look the same. But also, really,

852
00:50:01,680 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 1: I mean, the O line is killing the Chargers. We'll

853
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 1: clap that center losing a great center, underrated knock to

854
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: an offense, Corey Linsley, one of the better centers in

855
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:15,280
Speaker 1: the league since he went out. Yeah, I mean, Herbert's

856
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 1: getting pressured at all the wrong times. Not even just

857
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:20,479
Speaker 1: the pressure, it's when it's happening alway, seems to happen

858
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 1: at the worst times. Either way, I'm seeing like a

859
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:27,959
Speaker 1: twenty three to twelve Chargers winning this spot. I don't

860
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 1: think either team runs up the score. So Patriots Chargers

861
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 1: under forty one like it all right? So Steelers Cards

862
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 1: over forty one, Pats Chargers under forty one. Now it's

863
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 1: time for our favorite teaser of the week. Oh yeah,

864
00:50:46,760 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 1: six point teasers. Don't don't tez me please. Stuck is

865
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 1: nine to three this year on the pod on teasers,

866
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: So good, good shit, Stuck, I'm eight and four, So

867
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:14,799
Speaker 1: together seventeen and seven, so profitable teaser year for us

868
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,439
Speaker 1: here on the pod. Let's try to keep it rolling

869
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,760
Speaker 1: where you're going, I'm gonna include a rare Monday nighter.

870
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 2: I know we always cover just Sunday games, but Jags

871
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 2: are one of my favorite teaser pieces of the weekend.

872
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 2: Low total, I think the totals down to thirty eight,

873
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,759
Speaker 2: you're crossing the seven and the three. That is just

874
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 2: the ideal teaser piece. Jake Browning is just not the guy.

875
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: And I mean this Bengals defense is a mess, dead

876
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 2: last and explosiveness loud, their corners, they're so secondary is

877
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,919
Speaker 2: a mess right now, the defense runs yeah, I mean

878
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 2: it's bad. So I can't see Jake Browning in this

879
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,799
Speaker 2: Bengals team going in the Jacksonville getting the win. So

880
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 2: tease Jacksonville down to two and a half and we're

881
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 2: reluctantly I'm teasing Tim Boyle up to eight and a

882
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: half through the three and seven. This total I made

883
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 2: thirty two fowards that and that's I didn't even that's

884
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 2: the weather or just usually totals. I can't remember the

885
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 2: last time made a total that low when it wasn't

886
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 2: like in Cleveland with like thirty mile an hour wins.

887
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, obviously points could be at a premium here.

888
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 2: Can the Jets get the ten? I think so, which

889
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 2: might be enough. And it's Ritter who just loves to

890
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 2: turn the ball over. He wants to get.

891
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: Oh my god, yeah, me and my boy shout out

892
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: to my boy Chris, and we just call it rearing

893
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 1: at this point, like we just text each other because

894
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: it just without fail, they'll get in the red zone.

895
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: They'll be like this close to scoring a touchdown. All

896
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: you guy do, just hit the open receiver, hold the

897
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,360
Speaker 1: ball across the goal, whatever it be, turnover, it's just

898
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 1: it's yeah.

899
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 2: So he's hope, probably have a couple turnovers here against

900
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 2: this Jets d I have to do it a crossing

901
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,919
Speaker 2: three and seven totals thirty four. I make it thirty two,

902
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 2: So Jets and Jags.

903
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 1: For mine, I'll go with the Chargers down to a

904
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 1: pick and the Titans up to seven to give us

905
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: some diversity here. I already talked about the Titans and

906
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: the Chargers kind of briefly touched on him. But this

907
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 1: is a game they should win. That's never safe with them.

908
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:34,240
Speaker 1: But this Patriot offense just not in a good spot.

909
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 1: I don't think when you have two quarterbacks taking reps,

910
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: you have none. ZAPPI kind of overstayed as welcome. I think,

911
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 1: you know, kind of surprised the people. First couple of

912
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 1: games last year, that was your boy. I know, you

913
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 1: got a couple covers out of him. But ever since then,

914
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 1: you know, watching him in the preseason this year, watching

915
00:53:53,960 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 1: him in the regular season this year just expiration date.

916
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,760
Speaker 1: Kind of like, who was it that you kept fading

917
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 1: Cooper Rush. I think it was had that hot start

918
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 1: and it was like, all right, back up. That's the

919
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: thing with back I mean, you see, you know with

920
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 1: Josh Dobbs too, like these these fringe you know, quarterbacks

921
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 1: that can make a couple of good starts, more often

922
00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 1: than not, there tends to be an expiration date. So

923
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: the reason, right, and Matt Jones probably should have been

924
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 1: a backup the whole time. So whoever we get a

925
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 1: quarterback you're going against Justin Herbert Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler,

926
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: that should be enough. One of the few spots, and

927
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 1: maybe I'll regret it, but one of the few spots

928
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: I trust the Chargers to get it done. So Chargers

929
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 1: from six to zero, Titans from one to seven, and

930
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 1: then you got the Jags from eight to two, eight

931
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:47,000
Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half, and the

932
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 1: Jets from two and a half to eight and a half.

933
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 1: We'll get into our Underdog money Line par away in

934
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: a sect, but as a reminder the Action Network podcast

935
00:54:55,600 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 1: it is presented by Bett MGM. Use bonus code Action

936
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 1: act Ion when signing up to get fifteen one hundred

937
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 1: dollars payback in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

938
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 1: For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

939
00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and why

940
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:26,720
Speaker 1: owning terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

941
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, Underdog

942
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 1: money Line Parlay.

943
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

944
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 2: money line Parlay.

945
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 1: We are nine and fifteen on the year, but that's

946
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 1: mostly you. You're six and six. I'm three and nine.

947
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: So your world. I'm just living in it. When it

948
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: comes to these money line dogs. Had the Bills just

949
00:55:57,600 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 1: ripped away from me? Hit over told, because once the

950
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 1: Bills game goes overtime, it's over.

951
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:05,240
Speaker 2: Even if I'm just happy that the Bills won the toss,

952
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,920
Speaker 2: Otherwise that would have been plus three and a half.

953
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 1: Where are you going for your dog, money line dog

954
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:10,839
Speaker 1: this week?

955
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:13,400
Speaker 2: Let's go out to Saints. I don't know who's gonna

956
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 2: be a wide receiver. They could be down to uh

957
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 2: Kentucky boy. Lynn Bowden's my boy, He's he's good whenever

958
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 2: he gets in there, Keith Kirkwood at Perry An at

959
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 2: Perry wake Forest kid. But I tend to think that

960
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:31,479
Speaker 2: whenever there's like cluster wide receiver injuries for one game,

961
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:35,279
Speaker 2: the market tends to overreact. These guys are still professionals,

962
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 2: a receiver that can work all week with the first team.

963
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 2: And last I checked, the Detroit defense is a dumpster fire.

964
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 2: Since Week seven, dead last epa per play, it has

965
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:47,360
Speaker 2: been the worst defense in the NFL. And last I checked,

966
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,760
Speaker 2: Jared Goff is still a pumpkin and will throw games away.

967
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:52,719
Speaker 2: So I think this line is just too high. I

968
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:55,279
Speaker 2: can't get to this number in any world, no matter

969
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 2: how much I account for the New Orleans injury, so

970
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 2: I played the same plus four. This is kind of

971
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,399
Speaker 2: when you want to bet car anyway as a dog

972
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 2: went on dog here. I think the market's overreacted to

973
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:06,800
Speaker 2: the Saints injuries.

974
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 1: I don't want to back Derek Carr and Dennis Sound

975
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 1: at all at this point, but I agree. I think,

976
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 1: you know, Detroit's kind of showing their colors, and it's

977
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: like it's like the reverse the last year. Last year

978
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: the defense started terrible and then got decent down a stretch.

979
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 1: This year it was decent and then Detroit. Yeah no,

980
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: you just you've called it out from from.

981
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:32,440
Speaker 2: I think they're a bottom five D dog shit. I

982
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 2: think the same.

983
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, what's Parlay's act with the New York Jets bust

984
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: one twenty five at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Uncertainty

985
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 1: that's really what we're looking for here. Don't have enough

986
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:50,040
Speaker 1: certainty to take the Jets on the spread. And honestly,

987
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's number one because there's no

988
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 1: positive sample of Tim Boyle like yet, like there's nothing

989
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 1: to hang. I mean, I guess he covered. I was

990
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 1: on him when he covered that game back in Detroit,

991
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 1: but like I mean there's nothing to point to. But

992
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:08,320
Speaker 1: don't just focus on, you know, the negative of you know,

993
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 1: a team, because and you know you should you should

994
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 1: be able to go figure out which bets to avoid,

995
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 1: and so you do have to look at the negatives

996
00:58:14,480 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 1: for each bet you're thinking about. But in this situation,

997
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:19,840
Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, the Jets are terrible. They have a

998
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: bad quarterback and a bad offense, But the Jets also

999
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 1: have an elite defense. The Falcons have a bottom five

1000
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 1: defense by most metrics, bottom eight at work at best.

1001
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 1: Uh and Falcons also have a bad quarterback and an

1002
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 1: offense that kind of hit or miss. Pretty one dimensional. Here,

1003
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 1: take London completely out of the game with Sauce Gardner

1004
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 1: and DJ Reed. You know, probably could do something with

1005
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,919
Speaker 1: the cornerbacks on Pits too if you really wanted to. So,

1006
00:58:52,000 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 1: I mean, you know what you're gonna get from the Falcons.

1007
00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: And this is a Desmond Ridder disaster spot. And we

1008
00:58:56,920 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 1: know Ritter has played a lot better at home than

1009
00:59:01,320 --> 00:59:03,400
Speaker 1: on the road. So if the Jets are ever gonna

1010
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:06,880
Speaker 1: break this streak, this could be the time. You might

1011
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 1: even see Trevor Simeon here, which I think would be

1012
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 1: an upgrade on on boil. So give me the Jets

1013
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five. Parlay those together you get just

1014
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 1: under five to one odds plus four ninety six. So

1015
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:27,760
Speaker 1: juicy little parlay there. Wouldn't be surprised if this one.

1016
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 2: Were to hit.

1017
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 1: Finally, we've got the best of the rest games we

1018
00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: haven't covered in any other segment, but are still, as

1019
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:40,680
Speaker 1: they say, meaningful to some. That's gonna be.

1020
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 3: A touchdown, but that may be meaningful to some of you.

1021
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 1: So you know what I mean by first up Cleveland

1022
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 1: at the Rams Rams by three and a half. The

1023
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 1: total is forty. Joe Flacco has been named the backup.

1024
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 1: I guess it will be their DTR if he clears concussion,

1025
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:03,200
Speaker 1: which he probably won't, or a PJ. Walker, And you

1026
01:00:03,240 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 1: know they've they've kind of made it clear that they

1027
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 1: don't want to go back to Walker. So I'm assuming

1028
01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 1: if if DTR is indeed ruled out, we get we

1029
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 1: do see Flacco take the field here. What are your

1030
01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: thoughts on this one?

1031
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:19,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, too much of Seramon, the line's too high three,

1032
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 2: But I'm not running to beat the Browns. I mean

1033
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 2: their defense should give Stafford and that offense problems just

1034
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 2: from a matchup in schematic, you don't want to play

1035
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 2: a lot of zone and not get pressure against Stafford

1036
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 2: and those receivers, which you won't get from the Browns.

1037
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: But you probably won't get Denzel Ward again, who was

1038
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:42,479
Speaker 2: out last week. Emerson got hurt, gar her Tomlinson hurt

1039
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 2: his hand, Walker Hert.

1040
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 1: Thornhill could be a different defense.

1041
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:49,440
Speaker 2: It be a different defense, and you saw that against

1042
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 2: the Broncos last week. I mean it just got bad.

1043
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 2: And then Cooper's hurt. He's probably gonna be limited from

1044
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:54,920
Speaker 2: what I.

1045
01:00:54,880 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 1: Hear rig and that like even if because I've noticed

1046
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 1: this with receivers in par ticular this year. DK Metcalf

1047
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 1: had a rib injury off the injury report, but if

1048
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 1: you watch him play, you could tell it's affecting him.

1049
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 1: Cooper cup a couple of weeks. I think it was

1050
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:11,800
Speaker 1: last week, two weeks ago, ankle injury completely off the

1051
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 1: injury report, and then he's jumping around like after like

1052
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 1: the first drive of the game.

1053
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 2: PJ. Walker is so bad. We know who he is,

1054
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 2: so I couldn't. There's too much uncertainty. This game passed.

1055
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought thought about the total, but that would

1056
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 1: be if the Brown's defense was healthy. It's Wednesday. It's

1057
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 1: there's just way too much uncertainty to handicap this accurately.

1058
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:33,840
Speaker 1: But I will say, like the total being forty and

1059
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 1: the line being three and a half tells you that

1060
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:38,960
Speaker 1: the market, at least at least early in the week

1061
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 1: is expecting the Browns nine.

1062
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 2: I don't think WARN's playing and Garrett's not going to

1063
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 2: be one hundred percent.

1064
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 1: Miami at Washington commanders nine and a half point underdogs

1065
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:54,240
Speaker 1: at home, the total is fifty. This is another one

1066
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,040
Speaker 1: of these spotfield We've said this a couple of times

1067
01:01:56,040 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 1: this year with with Washington there, it's like it's too

1068
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:03,160
Speaker 1: many points. But I don't know, I don't know where.

1069
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if I can trust Washing.

1070
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:06,880
Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm gonna get from Washington outside

1071
01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 1: of a fuck ton of passes. Like besides that, I

1072
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 1: don't really know what I'm gonna get from Washington. I

1073
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 1: don't know where the effort is. Defensively, I mean, it's

1074
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 1: a crapshoot. So you know, it's little too future many

1075
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 1: points on the on the number, but that defense, that

1076
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:26,680
Speaker 1: defense scares me. And even with Miami missing Phillips. You

1077
01:02:26,720 --> 01:02:30,160
Speaker 1: know Ramsey on the outside that that that that's big

1078
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:34,320
Speaker 1: against You know, Washington's pretty receiver oriented, so stay away

1079
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:35,479
Speaker 1: from me. What are you thinking here?

1080
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, line's too high based on what I projected, but

1081
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 2: like I projected like seven, so it got to ten.

1082
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,040
Speaker 2: Maybe I think about it. But Miami blows these teams out.

1083
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 2: It's what they do. Washington's dead last EPA per play

1084
01:02:49,160 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 2: defense on the year, and they had some guys that

1085
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:53,960
Speaker 2: they got rid of halfway through the year, but they

1086
01:02:53,960 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 2: don't have anymore. I don't know how they can stop Miami.

1087
01:02:57,080 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 2: And then on the other end, Miami's defense its week

1088
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 2: seven five EPA pri play, so they got their secondary

1089
01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 2: healthy Phillips to law school hurt. In the long run,

1090
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 2: you know, they're starting to get a hang of Fangio system.

1091
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 2: Pretty complex system takes some time. So I can't I

1092
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 2: can't lay it because I just don't. I make it

1093
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:15,920
Speaker 2: seven and a half. So pass.

1094
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 1: So the Giants have only had three games this year

1095
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 1: over two hundred net passing yards. That game against Arizona

1096
01:03:26,320 --> 01:03:29,440
Speaker 1: in Week two, where you still have Daniel Jones in

1097
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 1: a fairly healthy roster, and the two games against Washington

1098
01:03:35,080 --> 01:03:41,120
Speaker 1: both with backup quarterbacks. So this pat this defense is yeah,

1099
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:43,320
Speaker 1: and now you're gonna against the Miami with a healthy Wattle,

1100
01:03:43,400 --> 01:03:46,440
Speaker 1: a healthy Hell, and probably a healthy h M. I

1101
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 1: do think Miami is probably a better bet to blow

1102
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 1: out Washington than Washington is to keep it a one

1103
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:52,720
Speaker 1: score game.

1104
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:54,880
Speaker 2: You can get some rain. I want no part of

1105
01:03:54,920 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 2: Washington in this.

1106
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:58,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably lean over if anything. You know, Washington's

1107
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 1: gonna pass a ton Miami me no resistance probably from

1108
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 1: from there from Washington's defense. So yeah, it's a high total,

1109
01:04:05,360 --> 01:04:09,200
Speaker 1: but don't don't hate the over. But hopefully everyone had

1110
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:13,480
Speaker 1: a profitable survivor, at least those with those UH eleven

1111
01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:16,840
Speaker 1: eleven weeks. I think I was ended up in the

1112
01:04:16,880 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 1: final three UH in our in hours and UH made

1113
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 1: it pretty far in a couple others, So we.

1114
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 2: Have both ended up in the same place.

1115
01:04:25,000 --> 01:04:29,560
Speaker 1: Baby, Yeah, just ten weeks later for me. We'll be

1116
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 1: back next week for week fourteen. That's a wrap for

1117
01:04:32,160 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 1: week thirteen. Of course, you can hear more of myself

1118
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 1: with Sean Kerner, the odds maker, talking fantasy dfs all

1119
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:41,760
Speaker 1: that good stuff on the Fantasy Flex Podcast. We also

1120
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 1: got our player projections episode right here on this channel

1121
01:04:45,280 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 1: where we talk guys who were high and low on

1122
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:51,120
Speaker 1: top five at each position and some props. And you

1123
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 1: can hear Stucky talking college football over on the Big

1124
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:57,400
Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast. On a Friday at morning, Stucky

1125
01:04:57,520 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 1: is on X at Stucky two, I am I'm on

1126
01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 1: X at Chris Raybond ret those same handles on a

1127
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:08,240
Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network app until week fourteen. Let's

1128
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:20,280
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1129
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:21,360
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1130
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:24,280
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1132
01:05:26,960 --> 01:05:27,680
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