WEBVTT - Surveillance: Vaccine Distribution With Hochul 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.840 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm term Keene Jaiye. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.400 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.200 us now in place to say, it's Ben Lagla Tella 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:32.800 hud some research ceo. Then the story really over the 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:35.760 last week hasn't changed. It's the short term risk the 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:39.199 long term opportunity. Does the news this morning help us 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.400 become just a little bit more tolerant as some of 0:00:41.440 --> 0:00:46.440 the negative stories we've heard across America over the weekend. Absolutely, 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.440 I mean it gives you more visibility, I think on 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.760 where we're going. I think it accelerates this sort of 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:55.440 rotation into cyclicals and maybe value that the market but 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:57.080 sort of been trying to make, but as it has 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:00.400 lacked the courage to make that leap. And I think 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:02.760 you're now I'm absolutely getting that we've had this sort 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:05.280 of double catalyst of we're now through the election and 0:01:05.319 --> 0:01:07.280 we can sort of face forward into what I think 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:10.080 is going to be a very big sort of growth 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:14.160 rebound and and the vaccine or the incremental vaccine news. 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:16.560 I think we've got a lot more still to come here. Um, 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:18.280 you know, it helps us sort of bridge that gap, 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:20.720 if you like, over these sort of winter infection spike 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:25.240 to you know, a gradual sort of renormalization of activity 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:27.000 and and the way to play do these these sort 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.600 of tychnical stocks, which is where I think we're massively 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:33.200 underestimating the sort of operating leverage. Ben. You have been 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:35.880 way out, way out, way out front, and there's what 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.480 we have is a distributed base with maybe some catharsis 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:43.200 of chorus in March or April. What's your percentage up 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:48.000 visibility out twelve months out, twenty four months out, thirty 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:53.040 six months. How big is the Ladler leap Listen, I 0:01:53.240 --> 0:01:54.800 think it's huge. I mean I just to give you 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:56.640 so if you like the sort of tip of this, right, 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:58.800 if I look at those sort of reopening stocks, the 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.480 ones that have been sort of most impacted by this, 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.440 even with all the rally over the last couple of weeks, 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:07.600 I mean, they've still underperformed this sort of market darling 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.239 sort of work from home stocks by the eighty percentage 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:13.920 points that nearly four times priced the book cheaper are 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:17.280 they're not making any money? Um, there's been where all 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:19.960 the biggest surprises and third quarter earnings have come from 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.160 on this on the sort of positive side. And you 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:27.200 know revenues are still down between thirty two over so 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:28.919 you know that's your sort of order of magnitude. I 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:32.560 think this rotation has sort of barely it's frankly barely 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.280 getting started. And and the other thing I would say is, 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:37.000 you know, the other sort of fuel on this fire 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:39.600 is invested positioning. And we've been saying for a while 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:42.280 how cautious it's been, but just in the last week 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.000 you've seen it begin to turn and actually turned quite dramatically, 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:47.720 And that I think is you know, the fuel that's 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:49.920 going to come into the market here. So, Ben, what 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.640 on a day like today are you actually buying or doing? 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:54.400 I mean, there is this feeling that long term it's 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.280 going to be a good scenario. Short term still a 0:02:57.280 --> 0:03:00.360 lot of volatility. Are you active on a day like today? 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:04.720 Listen if you're you know, your average investor is not 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.560 carrying anything like as much risk I think as they 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:09.639 as they should be. Right now, you know what overweight 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.760 small cap overweight industrials will overweight real estate consumer durables, 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.520 and we're not over all cyclicals or even all value. 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:19.240 I think it's as much more cyclical story really than 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:20.920 than a sort of value story. I'd make a small 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.440 distinction there, but but yes, i'd be focusing on where 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.960 where are you getting the most operating leverage to the 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:31.560 sort of fear of the virus beginning to moderate over 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.080 the next few months. And again I think it's you know, 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:38.360 in these small caps industrials and real estate particularly, and 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:40.840 it takes you outside the United States, I imagine as well, Ben, 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:43.000 if you really want to get that high leverage play 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:45.000 on the reopening of a vaccine, it's got to take 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.080 you to Europe, which has been beaten up so badly, 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.600 and it has that mechanical, that composition towards the names 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.480 the things that you're talking about, Ben, can you walk 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:55.839 me through your Europe called right now? You're a band? 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:57.480 And I would also say the sort of cyclical bit 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.640 of emerging markets, so so yes, so domestic cyclicals in 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.800 Europe for US, that's sort of financials. It's pretty much 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.480 the cheapest, most hated and one of the larger sort 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:08.600 of sectors in Europe where you know, we're overweight. We're 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.480 overweight there, but also within EM right, I mean everybody 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.520 including US has been sort of hiding out in China 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:16.159 and North Asia first in, first out, but you know 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:18.680 the rest of the M is really you're much more 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.039 cyclical bit of em you know, very similar to this 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:24.600 sort of you know US reopening story, very depressed earnings 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:27.400 and a lot of operating lebridge. I guess the you know, 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:30.479 the one caveat just on Europe is it's just watched 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.120 the dollar and and the flip side of that the 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.039 strength of the euro um. You know a lot of 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.360 these European corporates um, you know sort of very very global, 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.080 very international. So you know, to the extent we get 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:42.520 you know, too much of a euro move, that's definitely 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.040 a headwind. But yes, broadly Europe, you know, much cheaper, 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:49.000 much more depressed earnings. Uh and and and just seeing 0:04:49.040 --> 0:04:51.680 a lot more operating libradge here ben greater catch up 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:54.720 as always been later there of Tower Hudson Research. Thank you, sir, 0:04:54.800 --> 0:05:01.159 Thank you very much. Know we're gonna do a Lisa 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:03.600 John and I feel is really important. Yes, we do 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:07.840 the markets, we do economics, we do the politics, international relations, 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.920 but you need to understand the science of what we're 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:14.719 talking about. Robert Murphy has acclaimed at Northwestern University in 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:18.239 infectious diseases and one time, long ago and far away 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:22.679 went through Leninger's biochemistry. Dr Murphy, good morning. I want 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:27.600 you to explain in the King's English how messenger RNA 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:32.360 goes into the cell, comes out to the cytoplasm and 0:05:32.560 --> 0:05:39.000 kills this virus. Are we assured that can happen? Well, apparently, 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:43.840 so you've got to message messenger RNA vaccines that have 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:47.400 been put out there in tens of thousands of people. 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:50.320 This is not a small number of people. I think 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:53.479 the Fighter one was like over forty people in the 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:56.279 Maderna thirty thousand. A lot of people have taken this 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.800 vaccine and we were we would have been happy if 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.919 to your of them were protected from getting it and 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:07.839 their ninety and nine point This is this is really 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:11.480 way beyond expectations. It is it is original and m 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:15.159 A r n A research as well explained to our 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:19.640 audience what will be different in this distribution versus a 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:25.679 polio vaccine, a flu vaccine or more bacterial shots as well. Well. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.400 The biggest it's it's a vaccine just like the other 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:33.680 ones that you mentioned. Uh M, A messenger rna is 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.440 is a really is a very small protein and it's fragile, 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:38.880 and so it has to be kept cold. And the 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.640 difference between the fiser and the MODERNA is how cold 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.880 does it have to keep The fisor one has to 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:49.120 be kept at minus seventies celsius or minus ninety fahrenheit 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:53.320 very cold. Uh It's doable, believe me. It can be done, 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:56.800 but that is going to be a challenge in the 0:06:56.839 --> 0:07:00.520 whole cold chain supply. The MODERNA one has to be 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:02.880 kept cold, but then when it gets out into the market, 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:07.599 it can be up to basically just above freezing. So 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:09.920 it's gonna be a little bit easier to move that around. 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.320 But either one of them, it can happen, and we're 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:15.520 probably gonna need both. Dr Murphy, I'm gonna go home 0:07:15.520 --> 0:07:17.200 today and talk with my eight year old and eleven 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.360 year old son and tell them there is a vaccine, 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:23.480 another efficacy study coming out, and they're gonna say, when 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.000 the pandemic gonna be over? What's the answer based on 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:33.040 the distribution models that you've seen A year from now? Really, yeah, 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:35.280 a full year, So walk us through what happens over 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.400 the next year. So what happens is so these companies 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:42.080 have to submit their EUAY Emergency Use authorization. You know, 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:46.200 the data will be gone over by an external advisory board. UH, 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:48.800 and they're going to make sure that it's safe. UH, 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:51.120 and they're going to continue to follow those patients that 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:55.520 are in the study. UH. Then the vaccines will be 0:07:55.840 --> 0:08:00.800 available probably the end of December most likely. Now there'll 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:05.480 be maybe twenty million doses from each one of the companies, UH, 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:07.960 and they'll get out there, and then it's who's going 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:11.560 to get those first twenty million doses. Uh. You know, 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:13.360 right now there's a lot of reluctance in the world 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.000 to take it. They think this is going too fast, 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:17.240 as a lot of people that are against vaccines. But 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:20.240 I think once the data is out there and if 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:24.160 it's as good as it sounds and it's verified independently, 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:26.160 people are going to be lining up for this thing. 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:30.200 So they'll start pushing the vaccine out. And it's going 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:34.480 to come out in UH. Two different populations. People on 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:39.520 the front lines, people with high risk for severe complications, diabetics, 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:44.439 older people, people with underlying a cancer. For instance, the 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.240 higher risk people will get it first, and then I 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.560 would think that by the second quarter of next year, Uh, 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:53.640 there'll be enough companies out with the vaccines that will 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:57.360 it'll start really penetrating into the general population. And then 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:00.840 basically just go line up and get it. For our 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:05.120 audience worldwide on Bloomberg TV and Radio, we're with Dotor 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:08.400 Robert Murphy of Northwestern University off the back of some 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.920 news from Maderna that the coronavirus vaccine was found to 0:09:10.960 --> 0:09:14.080 be ninety four point five percent effective in analysis. Dr 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:15.360 just give me a moment. I want to turn to 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.320 the price action just for a moment and have a 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:19.680 look at what's happening in the United States. Equity futures 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.000 are picking up here with a bid on the small caps. 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.120 The rustle up by two point six four percent. We 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.280 advanced forty six points tom For our audience right now, 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.280 we're grappling with the same question we grappled with last week, 0:09:30.520 --> 0:09:33.880 how much bad news can this market ignore in the 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:36.880 short term on the hope that the long term looks better? 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.040 And my question would be, can you really untangle and 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:43.720 draw a hard distinction between those two stories? Short term 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.720 not great? Long term better? And doesn't the short term 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.240 to some degree shape what the future looks like in 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.959 this economy. There's always abellance of that. John noticed the 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.440 rud on the screen for the nurse deck one where 0:09:54.480 --> 0:09:57.079 this is a rotation, and I would point out John, 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.480 as you go back to Dr Murphy and Chicago, I 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:03.959 would point out John very importantly that the rebound in 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:07.800 value cyclicals, midcaps and the rest of them isn't even 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:11.360 back to the previous regression. Yeah we came up off Fiser, 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:14.120 Yeah we came up off Maderna, but we're not even 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.599 back to trend. They were so discounted to I'd just 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:19.880 like to finish with the final question on the price 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.080 of a potential vaccine. These are private companies, some of 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.440 them half worked with the government. Any idea on how 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:28.680 much this might cost for governments to provide the general 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:31.679 public with a vaccine like this, Well, the government in 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.120 the U. S. Government has already purchased hundreds of millions 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:36.480 of doses. It's already paid for. It's going to go 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:40.920 out there free. So what it actually costs, I don't know. 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:45.200 It's anyone's guess. Don't great to catch you out this morning. 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.360 We appreciate your time, sir. Thank you that the Robert 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:53.800 Murphy there of Northwestern University. We've been looking at the 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:56.600 vaccines which go out into two thousand twenty one. Now 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:58.760 we need to look at the reality of the present. 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.520 You do that when you're a politician. You do that 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:05.000 when the Buffalo bills lose a heartbreaker to Arizona. As 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.680 we saw yesterday, she is the lady from Buffalo, the 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.400 lieutenant governor of the Empire. Straight. Kathy Hokel joins us 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:13.560 right now. Kathy, I got to go to the money 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.080 question for all of our New York City audience on 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:19.920 radio and on television. What is your sense with Governor 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.480 Cuomo of what Mayor to Blasio and you will do 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:26.800 about the school system of New York City. Well, thanks 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:28.439 for having me on the show, and I'm sorry you 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:30.160 had to twist the nights in my heart about the 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:33.840 bills loss. So that's another topic with respect to the schools. 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:36.800 The time that was back in the summertime when we 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.440 are having lower expection rates and the parents of the 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:43.600 teachers and the city administration decided that if the number 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:46.800 of infection rates hit three percent, would dad be a 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.920 trigger to close down schools. But what the governor's saying 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:51.839 now is that we're in a different era. We're now 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:55.400 finding out because of testing in schools that the schools 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.720 may be a safer place than having residered backed out 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:02.320 in their community. So you're prepared to, you know, you know, 0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:06.000 work with them to say, can we make an adjustment here? 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:09.160 Can we talk about having Okay stay open because it 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:11.280 may be better goes to the math. It's point one 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:14.160 seven percent on the schools. Many other states are at 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.520 nine percent, which is where the New York states talking about. 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.520 And du Blasio is married to three percent. How do 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.160 you convince him in the teachers union in New York 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.160 City to get to where Nebraska is, to get to 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.800 where Oklahoma is, for that matter, to get to where 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:34.280 Chicago is on this percent statistic? Well, that doesn't matter. 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:36.800 It's what the parents and the teachers and the ministries 0:12:36.840 --> 0:12:38.560 feel conquer with. We're not going to We can say 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.120 that you're going to be going back to school, but 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:42.560 if the teachers say we don't feel safe, they're not 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:45.400 showing up. If parents don't feel safe, the kids aren't 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:48.200 showing up, and then you basically don't have an educational process. 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.160 That works at all. So you have to get buy 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:53.040 in from everyone, and that's simply what the governor has 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.280 proposed over the weekend, and not have an automatic shutdown 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.800 at three percent, but to use what's going on in 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.120 the schools testing with alts that we didn't have when 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:03.800 the decision was made to trigger three percent. Now we 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.280 have more data points. Why not look at the data 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.439 that's in front of you and if a school, a 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.720 school itself has a low rate of infection, you know, 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:14.040 less than one percent or whatever the metrics are going 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:17.000 to be, why not keep them open because not only 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.720 is it safer perhaps for the children, but also you 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:22.520 think about the childcare crisis that we've spoken about on 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:24.720 your show for a long time. But how are we 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:27.280 going to be able to let you know, parents, particularly women, 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.680 because it always falls on the shoulders of women to 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:31.640 figure out how to get back to their jobs when 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.720 their schools are shut down. Again. That hurts our economy, 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.800 it hurts our comeback, and so there's many dynamics involved 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:41.320 to your safety always being first. But realizing now that 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.800 a three percent threshold is something that should be relooked 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:48.360 at with the consultation with the parents and the teachers, Cathy, 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:50.520 the reality that you're looking at right now is so 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:53.720 vastly different than the reality that equity strategists look out. 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.319 When they look out over until the end of one 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.400 how much economic scarring will they be where? Well they're 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.960 being excuse me in New York State, New York City, 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.160 as layoffs have to begin, as we do not necessarily 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.520 get any aid from Washington d C. During a lame 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:13.840 duck session. We won't have that aid immediately, is what 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.400 it seems clear to me. And I'm willing to be 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.720 pleasantly surprised that we can actually get Mitch McConnell to 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:22.320 do the right thing and to say that, yes, states 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:24.520 have suffered. Oh, I realized now it's not just the 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.440 Blue states. The red states are in trouble. Therefore, we 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.000 will help them now because he will go by whatever 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.280 you think is in the political interests of his own party. Okay, fine, 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:36.040 we're at a point now where the interests are all aligned. 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:41.120 All American states need help with the testing, with the PPE, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.040 the help getting more doctors and nurses into some of 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.000 our vote states that didn't expect to be dealing with this. 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.720 So but even if that doesn't occur, in this lame 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.200 duck session. I do believe that Joe Biden understands the 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.720 urgency with this. Governor Cromo has a strong relationship with him, 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.240 we all do, and he knows that you cannot have 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:01.520 every cover are you know. We've said this before, a 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.600 recovery for the nation without states like New York being 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.240 able to come back and come back strong and to 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.800 reduce the chance of more massive layoffs and to keep 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:13.480 businesses prospering. We want that is our objective. We have 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.000 to keep that going. So under a Biden administration, we 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.560 feel very confident that the money will start flowing for 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:22.000 state and local governments to help us get out of 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:26.680 our poles budgetarily, but also to continue funding initiatives like 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:31.240 vaccination distribution. The Lieutenant governor that will be early next year. 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:33.040 We have some tough months ahead of us, as you know, 0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:35.560 and the numbers out of America have been quite worrying. 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.800 Across many states in the United States, the Lieutenant governor 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:40.680 of the President has been criticized for not being engaged 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:44.440 enough on this issue with cases increasing at a rapid right, 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.120 what is it you need from the federal government specifically 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:53.640 that you've requested and aren't getting right now. Money also 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:57.160 a distribution plan for the vaccination that could be helpful. 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:58.880 Let's work on that now and not wait until the 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:01.080 vaccine is available that all of a sudden say, well, 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:03.320 let's start figuring it out. That has he figured out now. 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.520 In the state of New York, we started working on 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:08.320 our plan back in the summertime. So but money is 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.640 the number one thing because that will allow us to 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:14.440 continue funding the state and local to the communities, the 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.800 first responders, the teachers, the health care workers, the child 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.680 care workers. I think we need money first because they 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.680 didn't help us when it came to testing. We could 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.760 have used the Defense Production Act invoked months and months ago. Basically, 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.840 now the President checked out. He never wanted to leave. 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.720 This could have been his Winston Churchill moment. He could 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:34.320 have been a hero. He could have won the election 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:37.440 if he had done this right. And he blew it basically, 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:39.760 and now with the consequences there, he needs to move over. 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:43.560 Let the transition team of Joe Biden take over. Let 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:46.280 them have the opportunity to find out, you know, where 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:49.040 the money is, what what programs need to be continued, 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.840 what regulations need to be changed. Let them hit the 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:54.440 ground running and start saving our country because it did 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.640 not have to fall this far. New York State still 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.160 has the third lowest infection rate in the nation after 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:04.960 Vermont May Word about two point six percent. The rest 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.160 of the nation could be at two point six percent 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.440 and we could be functioning. But the President didn't care. 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.479 He didn't do anything along the lines of what we 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.160 were asking for early on. So the damage is done 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.680 and now it's time to do clean up. Lieutenant Covin. 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.000 I appreciate your time. The commisation will have to continue, 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:27.639 Kathy how called that of New York right now, and 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:31.280 this is really important on a Monday, Let's recalibrate the 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.760 American economy. He is award winning Stephen Stanley with Amer's 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:39.720 Pierrepont does wonderful work with the conventional function. Why will 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.600 C plus I plus G plus whatever the export noises 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.800 Steve Stanley, what matters right now within that equation? Well, 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:50.240 I think consumption has really been the start of the show, um, 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.600 and that's what we're looking at. I mean, consumer has 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:55.320 held up much better than I think most people expected 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:59.920 through the pandemic and now with renewed restrictions and kind 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:03.280 cuts and mobility a little bit. I think there's obviously 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.320 some concern about whether the consumer can continue uh to 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:08.760 get back toward normal over the next couple of months. 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:13.399 Give us a calendar of the need for income substitution benefits. 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:17.919 I guess one disappear for many. But how urgent for 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:22.600 you is income replacement right now? Yeah, I think we're 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:24.359 in a different place than we were in the spring. 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:26.639 I mean, in the spring, we we put forward the 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:30.720 six hundred dollar a month unemployment benefits as well as 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:33.960 a round of rebate checks for everyone. And I think 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:38.480 at this point, um, the the whatever income replacement we 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.120 do probably needs to be more targeted. So I think 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:45.080 the idea of continuing the unemployment benefits certainly, um, you know, 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:47.760 continuing them beyond mid year or the end of the year, 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:52.239 but also, um, maybe putting forward another bonus. You know, 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.520 it doesn't necessarily have to be six hundred dollars, but 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:57.439 you know, perhaps three or four hundred whatever makes a 0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.680 lot of sense because there's still plenty of people who 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.199 basic we can't work because of the pandemic. I'm not 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:05.120 sure that we need across the board help the way 0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:08.119 that the way that we got in the spring so 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:10.720 that to me, that's the key distinction. And Steve, this 0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:13.600 is a really important nuance because right now we're looking 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.640 at American consumer finances that are best shape in decades. 0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.240 People took these checks, they paid down their debt, they 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.040 don't have any where to go to spend money, and 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.640 so you're seeing really really good balance sheets. But that's 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:28.280 an aggregate. What is the long term economic consequence of 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.520 the lower tier of workers who are seeing their jobs 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.159 get cut at a faster pace and who don't have 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:38.520 the same kind of cushion even after the round of stimulus. Yeah, well, 0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:40.639 I mean, you know, obviously those are the sorts of 0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:43.159 people that have to live paycheck to paycheck. So the 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.199 loss of a paycheck means a lot more for someone 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:50.439 in that financial situation than it would for, um, you know, 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:52.679 someone that has a nest egg. And I think again 0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:55.920 that's why there is, in my view, there is urgency 0:19:56.080 --> 0:20:00.320 to make sure that we're providing ample um support to 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:03.320 that group of people, the people who are unable to 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.040 work and and need the money right away. I think 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:09.639 you know that maybe the urgency for uh, for the 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:12.160 rest of the population isn't as great. Wan we've certainly 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.000 made up over half of the jobs that were lost 0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:16.760 during the lockdown. So there are a lot of folks 0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:19.560 who were out of work in the spring who were back, 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.400 but there's still plenty who are not. And I think, 0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:24.320 you know, those are the folks that we want to 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.240 try to take care of, and especially now that we 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:30.240 have a sense that perhaps it's only a few more months, 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:33.760 you know, maybe the vaccines are broadly distributed by the 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.840 spring um and things can get back to something much 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.320 closer to normal at that point. So if I'm a 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:41.560 if I'm a lawmaker at this point, it makes it 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.360 a lot more, makes it easier, I would think, uh, 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:46.400 to say, Okay, well we can support people for three 0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:50.920