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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm term Keene Jaiye.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining

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Speaker 1: us now in place to say, it's Ben Lagla Tella

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Speaker 1: hud some research ceo. Then the story really over the

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Speaker 1: last week hasn't changed. It's the short term risk the

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Speaker 1: long term opportunity. Does the news this morning help us

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Speaker 1: become just a little bit more tolerant as some of

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Speaker 1: the negative stories we've heard across America over the weekend. Absolutely,

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Speaker 1: I mean it gives you more visibility, I think on

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Speaker 1: where we're going. I think it accelerates this sort of

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Speaker 1: rotation into cyclicals and maybe value that the market but

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Speaker 1: sort of been trying to make, but as it has

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Speaker 1: lacked the courage to make that leap. And I think

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Speaker 1: you're now I'm absolutely getting that we've had this sort

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Speaker 1: of double catalyst of we're now through the election and

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Speaker 1: we can sort of face forward into what I think

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Speaker 1: is going to be a very big sort of growth

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Speaker 1: rebound and and the vaccine or the incremental vaccine news.

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Speaker 1: I think we've got a lot more still to come here. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, it helps us sort of bridge that gap,

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Speaker 1: if you like, over these sort of winter infection spike

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Speaker 1: to you know, a gradual sort of renormalization of activity

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Speaker 1: and and the way to play do these these sort

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Speaker 1: of tychnical stocks, which is where I think we're massively

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Speaker 1: underestimating the sort of operating leverage. Ben. You have been

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Speaker 1: way out, way out, way out front, and there's what

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Speaker 1: we have is a distributed base with maybe some catharsis

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Speaker 1: of chorus in March or April. What's your percentage up

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Speaker 1: visibility out twelve months out, twenty four months out, thirty

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Speaker 1: six months. How big is the Ladler leap Listen, I

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Speaker 1: think it's huge. I mean I just to give you

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Speaker 1: so if you like the sort of tip of this, right,

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Speaker 1: if I look at those sort of reopening stocks, the

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Speaker 1: ones that have been sort of most impacted by this,

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Speaker 1: even with all the rally over the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: I mean, they've still underperformed this sort of market darling

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Speaker 1: sort of work from home stocks by the eighty percentage

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Speaker 1: points that nearly four times priced the book cheaper are

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Speaker 1: they're not making any money? Um, there's been where all

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Speaker 1: the biggest surprises and third quarter earnings have come from

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Speaker 1: on this on the sort of positive side. And you

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Speaker 1: know revenues are still down between thirty two over so

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Speaker 1: you know that's your sort of order of magnitude. I

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Speaker 1: think this rotation has sort of barely it's frankly barely

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Speaker 1: getting started. And and the other thing I would say is,

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Speaker 1: you know, the other sort of fuel on this fire

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Speaker 1: is invested positioning. And we've been saying for a while

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Speaker 1: how cautious it's been, but just in the last week

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Speaker 1: you've seen it begin to turn and actually turned quite dramatically,

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Speaker 1: And that I think is you know, the fuel that's

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Speaker 1: going to come into the market here. So, Ben, what

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Speaker 1: on a day like today are you actually buying or doing?

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Speaker 1: I mean, there is this feeling that long term it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a good scenario. Short term still a

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Speaker 1: lot of volatility. Are you active on a day like today?

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Speaker 1: Listen if you're you know, your average investor is not

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Speaker 1: carrying anything like as much risk I think as they

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Speaker 1: as they should be. Right now, you know what overweight

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Speaker 1: small cap overweight industrials will overweight real estate consumer durables,

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Speaker 1: and we're not over all cyclicals or even all value.

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Speaker 1: I think it's as much more cyclical story really than

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Speaker 1: than a sort of value story. I'd make a small

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Speaker 1: distinction there, but but yes, i'd be focusing on where

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Speaker 1: where are you getting the most operating leverage to the

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Speaker 1: sort of fear of the virus beginning to moderate over

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Speaker 1: the next few months. And again I think it's you know,

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Speaker 1: in these small caps industrials and real estate particularly, and

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Speaker 1: it takes you outside the United States, I imagine as well, Ben,

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Speaker 1: if you really want to get that high leverage play

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Speaker 1: on the reopening of a vaccine, it's got to take

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Speaker 1: you to Europe, which has been beaten up so badly,

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Speaker 1: and it has that mechanical, that composition towards the names

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Speaker 1: the things that you're talking about, Ben, can you walk

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Speaker 1: me through your Europe called right now? You're a band?

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Speaker 1: And I would also say the sort of cyclical bit

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Speaker 1: of emerging markets, so so yes, so domestic cyclicals in

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Speaker 1: Europe for US, that's sort of financials. It's pretty much

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Speaker 1: the cheapest, most hated and one of the larger sort

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Speaker 1: of sectors in Europe where you know, we're overweight. We're

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Speaker 1: overweight there, but also within EM right, I mean everybody

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Speaker 1: including US has been sort of hiding out in China

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Speaker 1: and North Asia first in, first out, but you know

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Speaker 1: the rest of the M is really you're much more

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Speaker 1: cyclical bit of em you know, very similar to this

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Speaker 1: sort of you know US reopening story, very depressed earnings

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Speaker 1: and a lot of operating lebridge. I guess the you know,

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Speaker 1: the one caveat just on Europe is it's just watched

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Speaker 1: the dollar and and the flip side of that the

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Speaker 1: strength of the euro um. You know a lot of

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Speaker 1: these European corporates um, you know sort of very very global,

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Speaker 1: very international. So you know, to the extent we get

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Speaker 1: you know, too much of a euro move, that's definitely

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Speaker 1: a headwind. But yes, broadly Europe, you know, much cheaper,

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Speaker 1: much more depressed earnings. Uh and and and just seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot more operating libradge here ben greater catch up

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Speaker 1: as always been later there of Tower Hudson Research. Thank you, sir,

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Know we're gonna do a Lisa

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Speaker 1: John and I feel is really important. Yes, we do

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Speaker 1: the markets, we do economics, we do the politics, international relations,

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Speaker 1: but you need to understand the science of what we're

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Speaker 1: talking about. Robert Murphy has acclaimed at Northwestern University in

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Speaker 1: infectious diseases and one time, long ago and far away

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Speaker 1: went through Leninger's biochemistry. Dr Murphy, good morning. I want

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Speaker 1: you to explain in the King's English how messenger RNA

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Speaker 1: goes into the cell, comes out to the cytoplasm and

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Speaker 1: kills this virus. Are we assured that can happen? Well, apparently,

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Speaker 1: so you've got to message messenger RNA vaccines that have

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Speaker 1: been put out there in tens of thousands of people.

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Speaker 1: This is not a small number of people. I think

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Speaker 1: the Fighter one was like over forty people in the

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Speaker 1: Maderna thirty thousand. A lot of people have taken this

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Speaker 1: vaccine and we were we would have been happy if

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Speaker 1: to your of them were protected from getting it and

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Speaker 1: their ninety and nine point This is this is really

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Speaker 1: way beyond expectations. It is it is original and m

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Speaker 1: A r n A research as well explained to our

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Speaker 1: audience what will be different in this distribution versus a

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Speaker 1: polio vaccine, a flu vaccine or more bacterial shots as well. Well.

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Speaker 1: The biggest it's it's a vaccine just like the other

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Speaker 1: ones that you mentioned. Uh M, A messenger rna is

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Speaker 1: is a really is a very small protein and it's fragile,

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Speaker 1: and so it has to be kept cold. And the

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Speaker 1: difference between the fiser and the MODERNA is how cold

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Speaker 1: does it have to keep The fisor one has to

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Speaker 1: be kept at minus seventies celsius or minus ninety fahrenheit

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Speaker 1: very cold. Uh It's doable, believe me. It can be done,

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Speaker 1: but that is going to be a challenge in the

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Speaker 1: whole cold chain supply. The MODERNA one has to be

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Speaker 1: kept cold, but then when it gets out into the market,

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Speaker 1: it can be up to basically just above freezing. So

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit easier to move that around.

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Speaker 1: But either one of them, it can happen, and we're

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Speaker 1: probably gonna need both. Dr Murphy, I'm gonna go home

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Speaker 1: today and talk with my eight year old and eleven

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Speaker 1: year old son and tell them there is a vaccine,

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Speaker 1: another efficacy study coming out, and they're gonna say, when

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Speaker 1: the pandemic gonna be over? What's the answer based on

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Speaker 1: the distribution models that you've seen A year from now? Really, yeah,

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Speaker 1: a full year, So walk us through what happens over

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Speaker 1: the next year. So what happens is so these companies

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Speaker 1: have to submit their EUAY Emergency Use authorization. You know,

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Speaker 1: the data will be gone over by an external advisory board. UH,

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Speaker 1: and they're going to make sure that it's safe. UH,

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Speaker 1: and they're going to continue to follow those patients that

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Speaker 1: are in the study. UH. Then the vaccines will be

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Speaker 1: available probably the end of December most likely. Now there'll

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Speaker 1: be maybe twenty million doses from each one of the companies, UH,

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Speaker 1: and they'll get out there, and then it's who's going

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Speaker 1: to get those first twenty million doses. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: right now there's a lot of reluctance in the world

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Speaker 1: to take it. They think this is going too fast,

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Speaker 1: as a lot of people that are against vaccines. But

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Speaker 1: I think once the data is out there and if

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Speaker 1: it's as good as it sounds and it's verified independently,

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Speaker 1: people are going to be lining up for this thing.

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Speaker 1: So they'll start pushing the vaccine out. And it's going

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Speaker 1: to come out in UH. Two different populations. People on

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Speaker 1: the front lines, people with high risk for severe complications, diabetics,

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Speaker 1: older people, people with underlying a cancer. For instance, the

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Speaker 1: higher risk people will get it first, and then I

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Speaker 1: would think that by the second quarter of next year, Uh,

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Speaker 1: there'll be enough companies out with the vaccines that will

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Speaker 1: it'll start really penetrating into the general population. And then

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Speaker 1: basically just go line up and get it. For our

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Speaker 1: audience worldwide on Bloomberg TV and Radio, we're with Dotor

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Speaker 1: Robert Murphy of Northwestern University off the back of some

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Speaker 1: news from Maderna that the coronavirus vaccine was found to

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Speaker 1: be ninety four point five percent effective in analysis. Dr

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Speaker 1: just give me a moment. I want to turn to

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Speaker 1: the price action just for a moment and have a

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Speaker 1: look at what's happening in the United States. Equity futures

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Speaker 1: are picking up here with a bid on the small caps.

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Speaker 1: The rustle up by two point six four percent. We

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Speaker 1: advanced forty six points tom For our audience right now,

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Speaker 1: we're grappling with the same question we grappled with last week,

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Speaker 1: how much bad news can this market ignore in the

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Speaker 1: short term on the hope that the long term looks better?

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Speaker 1: And my question would be, can you really untangle and

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Speaker 1: draw a hard distinction between those two stories? Short term

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Speaker 1: not great? Long term better? And doesn't the short term

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Speaker 1: to some degree shape what the future looks like in

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Speaker 1: this economy. There's always abellance of that. John noticed the

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Speaker 1: rud on the screen for the nurse deck one where

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Speaker 1: this is a rotation, and I would point out John,

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Speaker 1: as you go back to Dr Murphy and Chicago, I

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Speaker 1: would point out John very importantly that the rebound in

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Speaker 1: value cyclicals, midcaps and the rest of them isn't even

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Speaker 1: back to the previous regression. Yeah we came up off Fiser,

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Speaker 1: Yeah we came up off Maderna, but we're not even

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Speaker 1: back to trend. They were so discounted to I'd just

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Speaker 1: like to finish with the final question on the price

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Speaker 1: of a potential vaccine. These are private companies, some of

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Speaker 1: them half worked with the government. Any idea on how

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Speaker 1: much this might cost for governments to provide the general

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Speaker 1: public with a vaccine like this, Well, the government in

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Speaker 1: the U. S. Government has already purchased hundreds of millions

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Speaker 1: of doses. It's already paid for. It's going to go

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Speaker 1: out there free. So what it actually costs, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's anyone's guess. Don't great to catch you out this morning.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate your time, sir. Thank you that the Robert

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Speaker 1: Murphy there of Northwestern University. We've been looking at the

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Speaker 1: vaccines which go out into two thousand twenty one. Now

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Speaker 1: we need to look at the reality of the present.

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Speaker 1: You do that when you're a politician. You do that

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Speaker 1: when the Buffalo bills lose a heartbreaker to Arizona. As

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Speaker 1: we saw yesterday, she is the lady from Buffalo, the

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Speaker 1: lieutenant governor of the Empire. Straight. Kathy Hokel joins us

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Speaker 1: right now. Kathy, I got to go to the money

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Speaker 1: question for all of our New York City audience on

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Speaker 1: radio and on television. What is your sense with Governor

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Speaker 1: Cuomo of what Mayor to Blasio and you will do

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Speaker 1: about the school system of New York City. Well, thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me on the show, and I'm sorry you

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Speaker 1: had to twist the nights in my heart about the

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Speaker 1: bills loss. So that's another topic with respect to the schools.

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Speaker 1: The time that was back in the summertime when we

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Speaker 1: are having lower expection rates and the parents of the

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Speaker 1: teachers and the city administration decided that if the number

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Speaker 1: of infection rates hit three percent, would dad be a

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Speaker 1: trigger to close down schools. But what the governor's saying

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Speaker 1: now is that we're in a different era. We're now

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Speaker 1: finding out because of testing in schools that the schools

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Speaker 1: may be a safer place than having residered backed out

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Speaker 1: in their community. So you're prepared to, you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: work with them to say, can we make an adjustment here?

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Speaker 1: Can we talk about having Okay stay open because it

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Speaker 1: may be better goes to the math. It's point one

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Speaker 1: seven percent on the schools. Many other states are at

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Speaker 1: nine percent, which is where the New York states talking about.

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Speaker 1: And du Blasio is married to three percent. How do

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Speaker 1: you convince him in the teachers union in New York

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Speaker 1: City to get to where Nebraska is, to get to

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Speaker 1: where Oklahoma is, for that matter, to get to where

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Speaker 1: Chicago is on this percent statistic? Well, that doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: It's what the parents and the teachers and the ministries

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Speaker 1: feel conquer with. We're not going to We can say

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Speaker 1: that you're going to be going back to school, but

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Speaker 1: if the teachers say we don't feel safe, they're not

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Speaker 1: showing up. If parents don't feel safe, the kids aren't

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Speaker 1: showing up, and then you basically don't have an educational process.

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Speaker 1: That works at all. So you have to get buy

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Speaker 1: in from everyone, and that's simply what the governor has

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Speaker 1: proposed over the weekend, and not have an automatic shutdown

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Speaker 1: at three percent, but to use what's going on in

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Speaker 1: the schools testing with alts that we didn't have when

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Speaker 1: the decision was made to trigger three percent. Now we

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Speaker 1: have more data points. Why not look at the data

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Speaker 1: that's in front of you and if a school, a

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Speaker 1: school itself has a low rate of infection, you know,

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Speaker 1: less than one percent or whatever the metrics are going

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Speaker 1: to be, why not keep them open because not only

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Speaker 1: is it safer perhaps for the children, but also you

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Speaker 1: think about the childcare crisis that we've spoken about on

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Speaker 1: your show for a long time. But how are we

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Speaker 1: going to be able to let you know, parents, particularly women,

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Speaker 1: because it always falls on the shoulders of women to

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Speaker 1: figure out how to get back to their jobs when

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Speaker 1: their schools are shut down. Again. That hurts our economy,

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Speaker 1: it hurts our comeback, and so there's many dynamics involved

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Speaker 1: to your safety always being first. But realizing now that

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Speaker 1: a three percent threshold is something that should be relooked

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Speaker 1: at with the consultation with the parents and the teachers, Cathy,

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Speaker 1: the reality that you're looking at right now is so

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Speaker 1: vastly different than the reality that equity strategists look out.

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Speaker 1: When they look out over until the end of one

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Speaker 1: how much economic scarring will they be where? Well they're

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Speaker 1: being excuse me in New York State, New York City,

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Speaker 1: as layoffs have to begin, as we do not necessarily

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Speaker 1: get any aid from Washington d C. During a lame

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Speaker 1: duck session. We won't have that aid immediately, is what

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Speaker 1: it seems clear to me. And I'm willing to be

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Speaker 1: pleasantly surprised that we can actually get Mitch McConnell to

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Speaker 1: do the right thing and to say that, yes, states

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Speaker 1: have suffered. Oh, I realized now it's not just the

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Speaker 1: Blue states. The red states are in trouble. Therefore, we

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Speaker 1: will help them now because he will go by whatever

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Speaker 1: you think is in the political interests of his own party. Okay, fine,

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Speaker 1: we're at a point now where the interests are all aligned.

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Speaker 1: All American states need help with the testing, with the PPE,

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Speaker 1: the help getting more doctors and nurses into some of

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Speaker 1: our vote states that didn't expect to be dealing with this.

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Speaker 1: So but even if that doesn't occur, in this lame

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Speaker 1: duck session. I do believe that Joe Biden understands the

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Speaker 1: urgency with this. Governor Cromo has a strong relationship with him,

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Speaker 1: we all do, and he knows that you cannot have

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Speaker 1: every cover are you know. We've said this before, a

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Speaker 1: recovery for the nation without states like New York being

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Speaker 1: able to come back and come back strong and to

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Speaker 1: reduce the chance of more massive layoffs and to keep

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Speaker 1: businesses prospering. We want that is our objective. We have

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Speaker 1: to keep that going. So under a Biden administration, we

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Speaker 1: feel very confident that the money will start flowing for

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Speaker 1: state and local governments to help us get out of

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Speaker 1: our poles budgetarily, but also to continue funding initiatives like

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Speaker 1: vaccination distribution. The Lieutenant governor that will be early next year.

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Speaker 1: We have some tough months ahead of us, as you know,

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Speaker 1: and the numbers out of America have been quite worrying.

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Speaker 1: Across many states in the United States, the Lieutenant governor

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Speaker 1: of the President has been criticized for not being engaged

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Speaker 1: enough on this issue with cases increasing at a rapid right,

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Speaker 1: what is it you need from the federal government specifically

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Speaker 1: that you've requested and aren't getting right now. Money also

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Speaker 1: a distribution plan for the vaccination that could be helpful.

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Speaker 1: Let's work on that now and not wait until the

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Speaker 1: vaccine is available that all of a sudden say, well,

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Speaker 1: let's start figuring it out. That has he figured out now.

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Speaker 1: In the state of New York, we started working on

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Speaker 1: our plan back in the summertime. So but money is

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Speaker 1: the number one thing because that will allow us to

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Speaker 1: continue funding the state and local to the communities, the

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Speaker 1: first responders, the teachers, the health care workers, the child

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Speaker 1: care workers. I think we need money first because they

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Speaker 1: didn't help us when it came to testing. We could

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Speaker 1: have used the Defense Production Act invoked months and months ago. Basically,

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Speaker 1: now the President checked out. He never wanted to leave.

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Speaker 1: This could have been his Winston Churchill moment. He could

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Speaker 1: have been a hero. He could have won the election

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Speaker 1: if he had done this right. And he blew it basically,

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Speaker 1: and now with the consequences there, he needs to move over.

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Speaker 1: Let the transition team of Joe Biden take over. Let

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Speaker 1: them have the opportunity to find out, you know, where

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Speaker 1: the money is, what what programs need to be continued,

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Speaker 1: what regulations need to be changed. Let them hit the

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Speaker 1: ground running and start saving our country because it did

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Speaker 1: not have to fall this far. New York State still

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Speaker 1: has the third lowest infection rate in the nation after

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Speaker 1: Vermont May Word about two point six percent. The rest

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Speaker 1: of the nation could be at two point six percent

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Speaker 1: and we could be functioning. But the President didn't care.

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Speaker 1: He didn't do anything along the lines of what we

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Speaker 1: were asking for early on. So the damage is done

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Speaker 1: and now it's time to do clean up. Lieutenant Covin.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate your time. The commisation will have to continue,

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Speaker 1: Kathy how called that of New York right now, and

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Speaker 1: this is really important on a Monday, Let's recalibrate the

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Speaker 1: American economy. He is award winning Stephen Stanley with Amer's

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Speaker 1: Pierrepont does wonderful work with the conventional function. Why will

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Speaker 1: C plus I plus G plus whatever the export noises

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Speaker 1: Steve Stanley, what matters right now within that equation? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think consumption has really been the start of the show, um,

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Speaker 1: and that's what we're looking at. I mean, consumer has

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Speaker 1: held up much better than I think most people expected

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Speaker 1: through the pandemic and now with renewed restrictions and kind

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Speaker 1: cuts and mobility a little bit. I think there's obviously

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Speaker 1: some concern about whether the consumer can continue uh to

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Speaker 1: get back toward normal over the next couple of months.

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Speaker 1: Give us a calendar of the need for income substitution benefits.

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Speaker 1: I guess one disappear for many. But how urgent for

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Speaker 1: you is income replacement right now? Yeah, I think we're

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Speaker 1: in a different place than we were in the spring.

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Speaker 1: I mean, in the spring, we we put forward the

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Speaker 1: six hundred dollar a month unemployment benefits as well as

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Speaker 1: a round of rebate checks for everyone. And I think

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Speaker 1: at this point, um, the the whatever income replacement we

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Speaker 1: do probably needs to be more targeted. So I think

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Speaker 1: the idea of continuing the unemployment benefits certainly, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: continuing them beyond mid year or the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: but also, um, maybe putting forward another bonus. You know,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't necessarily have to be six hundred dollars, but

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Speaker 1: you know, perhaps three or four hundred whatever makes a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense because there's still plenty of people who

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Speaker 1: basic we can't work because of the pandemic. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure that we need across the board help the way

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Speaker 1: that the way that we got in the spring so

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Speaker 1: that to me, that's the key distinction. And Steve, this

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Speaker 1: is a really important nuance because right now we're looking

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Speaker 1: at American consumer finances that are best shape in decades.

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Speaker 1: People took these checks, they paid down their debt, they

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Speaker 1: don't have any where to go to spend money, and

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Speaker 1: so you're seeing really really good balance sheets. But that's

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Speaker 1: an aggregate. What is the long term economic consequence of

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Speaker 1: the lower tier of workers who are seeing their jobs

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Speaker 1: get cut at a faster pace and who don't have

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Speaker 1: the same kind of cushion even after the round of stimulus. Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, obviously those are the sorts of

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Speaker 1: people that have to live paycheck to paycheck. So the

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Speaker 1: loss of a paycheck means a lot more for someone

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Speaker 1: in that financial situation than it would for, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: someone that has a nest egg. And I think again

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Speaker 1: that's why there is, in my view, there is urgency

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Speaker 1: to make sure that we're providing ample um support to

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Speaker 1: that group of people, the people who are unable to

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Speaker 1: work and and need the money right away. I think

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Speaker 1: you know that maybe the urgency for uh, for the

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Speaker 1: rest of the population isn't as great. Wan we've certainly

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Speaker 1: made up over half of the jobs that were lost

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Speaker 1: during the lockdown. So there are a lot of folks

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Speaker 1: who were out of work in the spring who were back,

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Speaker 1: but there's still plenty who are not. And I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, those are the folks that we want to

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Speaker 1: try to take care of, and especially now that we

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Speaker 1: have a sense that perhaps it's only a few more months,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe the vaccines are broadly distributed by the

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Speaker 1: spring um and things can get back to something much

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Speaker 1: closer to normal at that point. So if I'm a

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Speaker 1: if I'm a lawmaker at this point, it makes it

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Speaker 1: a lot more, makes it easier, I would think, uh,

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Speaker 1: to say, Okay, well we can support people for three

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Speaker 1: or four more months, but it's not an indefinite thing anymore. Stephen.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the economics. So mentioned. The Asian currency

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Speaker 1: is doing tremendously well recently that I trying to shine

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Speaker 1: a fantastic decent again this morning. And don't think it's

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Speaker 1: it's really to talk about payrolls for this month when

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Speaker 1: it comes out in early December, Stephen, what are you

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Speaker 1: comfortable forecasting at this point given the direction to travel

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Speaker 1: with economic restrictions coming up across America. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I would say most likely that we're going to see

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Speaker 1: another deceleration UM, and this one could be more significant

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Speaker 1: than what we've seen over the last couple of months.

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Speaker 1: The pace of growth was fairly steady over the last

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Speaker 1: two or three months. I would say, certainly in the

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Speaker 1: private numbers, UM, you're probably going to see a slowdown,

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Speaker 1: obviously with the virus having picked up. But I would say,

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Speaker 1: you know, we've suddenly we've seen a flurry of new

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Speaker 1: restrictions put in place over the last week or so,

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Speaker 1: and so my guess is I mean, we've just last

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Speaker 1: week was the payrolls survey week. So my guess is

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Speaker 1: that whatever UM slow down you're going to see in

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Speaker 1: the pace of job growth over the next several months

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Speaker 1: is more likely to be clear in December than in November.

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Speaker 1: I think we'll get some slow down, perhaps UM for November,

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Speaker 1: but then maybe a more significant one on the back

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Speaker 1: of some of these virus restrictions in December. Let's add

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Speaker 1: to this, then, Stephen, and think about the fact that

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Speaker 1: this economy has have the stress test a severe one

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Speaker 1: back in spring. Can you model what it might look

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Speaker 1: like when you get the same stress test again you

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Speaker 1: have it once, you get it a second time, and

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00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 1: how corporations and individuals might respond and maybe differently. Yeah,

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00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the one thing is that people

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00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: have kind of gotten used to the to the new reality.

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00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 1: So if you think about, for example, manufacturers, I mean

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00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 1: they had to they close their plants for almost two months,

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00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: and then when they came back, they had to retool

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00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 1: their operations to provide for a more socially distant workplace.

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00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 1: And having done that, um, it makes it. I think

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00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 1: it makes it far easier now because they've already kind

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00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: of adjusted. Um. So really, the I think the bulk

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00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 1: of the adjustment that needs to be made now is

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00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: just kind of dialing up and back the uh degree

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00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 1: of which people are getting out and about you know,

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00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: the mobility and um, the level of contact that people

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00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 1: are having. And so that does affect restaurants and high

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00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 1: contact industries like that, But I think the bulk of

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00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: the economy, the rest of the economy hopefully has already

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00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 1: made the necessary adjustments and won't be disrupted too badly. Um.

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00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 1: In the current situation, Steve is a stock market linked

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00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,880
Speaker 1: to your world. Um, I think I would look at

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00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: it as a as a gauge of sentiment um and

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00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 1: I think you know clearly at this point it seems

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00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 1: to me that the stock market is looking through our

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00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 1: investors are looking through the current bad news and into

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00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 1: you know, the prospect of of an effective vaccine at

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00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: some point next year and then getting back to something

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00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 1: closer to normal over the course of I mean, that

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00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: doesn't do anything for us today in terms of the

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00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: number of cases and hospitalizations and death, but it certainly

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00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: suggests that people are hopeful at things we'll get back

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00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 1: to something closer to normal as we've moved into Stephen,

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00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: there's some hope in this market this morning, that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: Stephen Stanny that I'm hast papon. Thank you said thanks

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00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen

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00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform

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00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio