1 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly 2 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: market podcast. I'm Sarah Ponzack, reporter on the Crossouset team, 3 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor on the Markets team. 4 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: This week on the show, the crazy times continue. Just 5 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 1: consider the statistic from Bespoke Investment Group. The SMP drop 6 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,319 Speaker 1: is only its seventh since and the quickest by more 7 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: than two weeks. The only two times where that speed 8 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: if the decline was anywhere near at bass. We're in 9 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: so sure. The equity market has been wild and the 10 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: vix jumped to a record high this week, a record, 11 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,599 Speaker 1: But at the heart of the stock markets worries has 12 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: been corporate credit fears, right, and we'll get into that 13 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: with our guest Uh And of course we'll close out 14 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 1: the episode with the craziest things we saw in markets 15 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: this week. Sarah, I trust there were plenty of crazy 16 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 1: things you saw in markets this week. So many crazy 17 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: things we saw in markets, but also just in the world. 18 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: We should be very clear if our audio sounds a 19 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: little bit strange, or you hear an ambulance or maybe 20 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,919 Speaker 1: the man who lives on top of me his band 21 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: playing jazz um. We're all coming at it from our 22 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: very own homes for the first time. So bear with 23 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: us and it'll be a lot of fun. You might 24 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: you might hear my dog. And it's a clarify, Sarah. 25 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: The man lives in an apartment above you. He doesn't 26 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: literally live on he literally Yeah, he doesn't literally live 27 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: right on top of my head. He does live in 28 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: the apartment above me the luxury of New York City. 29 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: So I've got a man living in my head. But 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,279 Speaker 1: that's a whole that's that's a that's a different issue 31 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: that will deal with Mike. Yeah. But Sarah, as you said, 32 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: I think in uh markets these days, uh, the main 33 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: topic front and center on everyone's mind is the severe 34 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: damage being done to credit mark It's um. So we're 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: very happy to welcome to the show for the first time, 36 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: the head of credit strategy at Wells Fargo's Securities. When 37 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: do you, Caesar, what do you welcome to the show? 38 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: Thank you very much for having me. Happy to be here. 39 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: Oh great, um, And I guess the one thing I 40 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 1: wanted to ask you first. I know, uh, this is 41 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: sort of out of your normal realm of strategy, but 42 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 1: I feel like the whole world is waiting for some 43 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: kind of government uh plan to shore up the credit markets. 44 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: I mean, we we've got a little bit of a 45 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 1: start on that from the FED with their commercial paper facility. UM. 46 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: But I'm just curious, have you given much thoughts so 47 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 1: sort of what kind of government package uh could be 48 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: put together to to really sort of uh stop the 49 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: bleeding and credit markets, especially since obviously the FED is 50 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 1: not allowed to buy corporate bonds, but maybe that will change. UM. 51 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: How's your thinking around all of that about what we 52 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 1: can expect from the government when it comes to credit. Yeah, 53 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: you're You're absolutely right. Credit markets have dislocated very severely 54 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: in recent weeks, and for us, on the strategy side 55 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: of things, we have been basically following the FEDS playbook. Um. 56 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: They have a pretty well recognized strategy from the financial crisis. 57 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: They have the benefit of being able to look back 58 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: and seeing, you know, what worked then, what didn't work, um, 59 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: and trying to project out what will work in this situation. Now. 60 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: I think that the biggest thing that people are are 61 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: really worried about in the short term across the credit 62 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: markets is there's just been this massive rush for liquidity. 63 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: It's been the sell everything strategy in the markets to 64 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: raise cash while issuers on the corporate side of things 65 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: are drawing down revolvers taking out their delayed drawing term 66 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: loans at you know, basically a record case. And so 67 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: the biggest question for corporate credit is there enough liquidity 68 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: in the system to actually back up all these revolver 69 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: drawdowns all of the cash raising by investors. We've spoken 70 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: for I don't know years now since the financial crisis 71 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: just about how much liquidity was pumped into the system 72 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: by the FED and other central banks. And so now 73 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: this is the real critical point where we figure out, 74 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: did all of the regulations put in place on the 75 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: banking system, uh post crisis, are they actually going to 76 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: do what they were designed to do and give borrowers 77 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 1: the type of liquidity that we really need right now 78 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 1: when we have no idea about the duration of this 79 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: crisis and the real magnitude of it all. So we 80 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: are following the FED and other central banks very closely 81 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: while also trying to figure out what the fiscal plan 82 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: is from the government. And you know, we've seen a 83 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: number of central banks come in and say that they 84 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: are putting I G. Corporate debt as uh, you know, 85 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: an eligible asset for quantitative easing programs. And I think 86 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: that there is a lot of speculation that the FED, 87 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 1: in conjunction with Congress and the U. S. Treasury may 88 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: have to ultimately go down that path. What do you 89 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: make of that possibility. I mean, we saw the op 90 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,679 Speaker 1: ed from Janet Yellen and Bernanki and the Financial Times 91 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 1: raising that that maybe the FED could step in and 92 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: buy corporate bonds. I mean, if that were to actually 93 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: happen one, what might that look like and to how 94 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: might that actually help the system at this point in time. So, 95 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: you know, I think that the mechanics of it are 96 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: are definitely to be seen. We have the playbooks from 97 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: other central banks where you know, it's just open market 98 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: purchase is and they you know, go in and they 99 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: have their list of eligible securities and you oftentimes see 100 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: the basis between those eligible securities and ineligible widen when 101 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: you have market volatility. So you know, it's yet to 102 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 1: be seen what the FEDS playbook would would actually be 103 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 1: in conjunction with Congress in the treasury um. But you know, historically, 104 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: if we look back at the FED putting MBS on 105 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: its list of securities, that they're going to buy that 106 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: stabilized the market pretty considerably in the financial crisis, and 107 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 1: you know, this go around NBS is already in the 108 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 1: newest que program um, and you know, it's not proving 109 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: to be quite as much of a quick fix as 110 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: I think some people might have thought it would be. UM. 111 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: So I think that the biggest issue right now is 112 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: that the front end of the curve is under tremendous 113 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: pressure because everybody just wants cash, and you know, we 114 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: we don't have the solutions in place quite yet to 115 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: normalize that front end of the curve. I think that 116 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: we are definitely creeping toward that point. And you know, 117 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: one of the things that I think you have to 118 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: keep in mind is we are still in Q one 119 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: for corporate borrowers, which means that you know, they want 120 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: to have as much cash on hand for their Q 121 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: one filings so that when they report earnings they can say, 122 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: you know, look at this liquidity that we have on hand. 123 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: So the big question is are we now taking too 124 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,679 Speaker 1: much liquidity out of the system in one fell swoop 125 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: and we're going to go back in six weeks from 126 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: now and say, okay, well, maybe maybe we didn't need 127 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: to all be drawing down our revolvers At the same time, 128 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: it's you know, it's a very interesting kind of game 129 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: theory issue that we have backed ourselves too, you know 130 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: when you I, I know the focus has been on 131 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: when you talk about sectors that obviously the energy sector 132 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: is once again the big concern, and credit uh, travel 133 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:16,119 Speaker 1: and leisure and hospitality UH clearly is a big source 134 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: of concern. But I feel like there's potential for this 135 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 1: to just bleed into other sectors. UM. You know, are 136 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: there any sectors you think that have either um uh 137 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: not priced in the risk enough yet or maybe went 138 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 1: too far? Um. I'm just trying to think where this 139 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 1: goes next after you know, energy and clearly the travel 140 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 1: and leisure sectors have been hit pretty hard. Yeah, that 141 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: it's it's a great question. And and when we're grappling 142 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: with on a very regular basis, I personally have been 143 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 1: very surprised by how well technology has held in in 144 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: both investment grade and high yield. Tech is one of 145 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: the tightest trading sectors despite you know, in my opinion, 146 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: having pretty tremendous exposure to supply chain and then sticklicality issues. UM. 147 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: So that's one of the segments where we've been a 148 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: bit more cautious UM, and it hasn't worked so far. 149 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: So we're we're definitely you know, looking at pressure points 150 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: and maybe if there are positive catalysts that we were 151 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: just overlooking. UM. The media side of things is also interesting. 152 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: You have some some different gifts and take where with 153 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: more people at home, you'll see more streaming. There will 154 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: be some media winners from that, UM. But you also 155 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: don't have people in movie theaters and how long is 156 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: it going to take for you know, people to really 157 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: be comfortable going to a movie and being in a 158 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 1: in a crowded space. I don't know, generally public perception 159 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: of these types of issues take a little bit longer 160 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: for people to get comfortable again. UM. Then I think 161 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: some people estimate. And then also you know, the home 162 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: building building products side of things that's been very resilient 163 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: UM in this market UM, and that there's clearly going 164 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: to be a slowdown in home buying if we have 165 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: unemployment just spiking all of a sudden. Now the big 166 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: question is, you know, what are the jobs that we're 167 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: actually losing in the economy. Are those jobs you know, 168 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: going to coincide with people who would be trying to 169 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: buy homes. Um. You know, there there's probably a little 170 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: bit of a glimmour for home construction if we have 171 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: the ability to do a lot of the um you know, 172 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: more uh finance law, the kind of tech higher higher paid, 173 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: higher wage jobs, rather than the hospitality industry where you know, 174 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: it's still not the most well paid industry. UM. So 175 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: I'm definitely looking, you know, pretty closely at what's going 176 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 1: on in the housing market as well. Timing here is 177 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: is such a big question. Really, no one has any 178 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: way of knowing how long this is going on for. 179 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: And I mean you talk about stimulus, what fiscal can do, 180 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: what they can do on the monetary side, and you 181 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: hope that to an extent that does help. But I'm 182 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: kind of just curious. I mean, how long can the 183 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: U S economy as it's built now actually sustained being 184 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 1: shut Like, even if you do have liquidity being pumped 185 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: into the system and you have a way of getting 186 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: cash to companies to help build themselves back up, I mean, 187 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 1: at what point does it potentially just become too much. 188 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: I wish, I wish I really knew the answer to that. 189 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 1: Because I feel like I could probably make some very 190 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: good bets if I did. You know, when I when 191 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: I talked to my my econ experts about you know, 192 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: how severe this can be for g d P. You know, 193 00:11:55,960 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 1: most of them like to refer me back to the 194 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: early nineteen eighties and we had a pretty severe downdraft 195 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: in economic growth, but it was very short lived. And 196 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: you know, I think that long term, as a corporate 197 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 1: credit investor, I continue to believe in the viability of capitalism. 198 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: I don't think that this is going to be, you know, 199 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 1: the the end of times for American capitalism as we 200 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: know it and globalism. You know, I think that we're 201 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: going to eventually right ourselves. I think the economy as 202 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: shut down as it is, I think means that the 203 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:41,199 Speaker 1: recovery is less likely to be v shaped because it 204 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 1: takes time to turn things back on and get people 205 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 1: back in seats, get people back flying for business purposes. Um. 206 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: So it will be interesting to see how this plays 207 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: out from you know, a liquidity standpoint. The longer this last, 208 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: clearly the worst it is for the very highly leveraged issuers. 209 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: And that's the big concern is what happens in the 210 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 1: leverage loan market. What happens in the fringes of high 211 00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: ye old and single bees and triple c s. You know, 212 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: these issuers generally don't have twelve or twenty four months 213 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: of liquidity. Similarly, you know, small businesses across the US 214 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: generally don't have all that much extra liquidity just sitting 215 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: on hand to kind of manage through these issues. Um. 216 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: And I think that that's where the federal government has 217 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,400 Speaker 1: to come in with fiscal stimulus and they basically have 218 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: to you know, tell us how much time they think 219 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 1: this is going to take to remedy and then also 220 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: provide that stop gap liquidity to get things moving back 221 00:13:50,320 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: in the right direction again. You know when you obviously 222 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: the big elephant in the room during the global financial 223 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: crisis a decade ago was the credit the fault swap market. Um. 224 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: You know, it's simply just grown way too big, bigger 225 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: than the amount of debt that it was actually ensuring. Um. 226 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 1: Once again we're hearing the words CDs and credit the 227 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: fault swaps again. It's kind of kind of a a 228 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: sense of shiver up your spine to some degree. But 229 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: my sense is that, um, it's not quite the elephant 230 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: in the room. It was at one point that all 231 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: the reforms uh that have been done uh in the 232 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: inner interim have have made them less of a sort 233 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 1: of a uh systematic risk. I'm curious, you know, is 234 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 1: that is that the right take on that? And if so, 235 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: are there other sort of pockets of the credit markets 236 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: that we should be worrying about, Like you mentioned leverage loans, uh, uh, 237 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: that sort of thing. Obviously that is a very weekly 238 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: performing sector at the momentum. But I'm just curious, what 239 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: do you think of, you know, the sort of CDs 240 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: market as it stands now in compared to back then, 241 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: and you know, tan generally, are there other sectors in 242 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: the credit markets that could kind of sneak up on 243 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: us and and be that elephant in the room the 244 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: way credit the fault swaps were a decade ago. Sure, 245 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 1: I mean there there are a few. So when it 246 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 1: comes to CDs specifically, that market has been very much transformed. 247 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: You know, we don't have the risk of these pervasive 248 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: bilateral CDs contracts where you're also exposed to know, massive 249 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: counter party risk. There's been a pretty robust um clearing 250 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: facility put in place and I know from a number 251 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: of the investors that I speak with in the US, 252 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: you know, they prefer to use the cleared CDs. So 253 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: that market is a much more regulated, functioning market than 254 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: it used to be, and it also is a lot 255 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: smaller um than it used to be. So you know, 256 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: I don't I don't worry at night about the CDs market. Now. 257 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: Where I do worry is leverage loans and then the 258 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: growth of what people refer to as the private credit market, 259 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: where because of regulation on banks and because of just 260 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: an absolute lack of yield in the system for much 261 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 1: of the post crisis period, we've seen a lot of 262 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: growth in these you know, smaller kind of clubby or 263 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 1: direct lending deals UM that traditionally would have been the 264 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: purview of the big banks and now have that risk 265 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: has been moved somewhere else UM. And you know a 266 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: lot of it is pension funds that are now involved 267 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: in private credits. Oh, you know, it's it's the end 268 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: investor who is exposed to potential severe default rates and 269 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 1: pretty dramatic losses on you know, capital that is locked 270 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 1: up in this private credit markets. On the leverage loan 271 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: side of things, there has been tremendous growth in the 272 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: in the broadly syndicated loan markets um it now stands 273 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 1: at about the same size as the US high yield markets. 274 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: And there's also been a lot of degradation and fundamentals, 275 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 1: So you saw a lot of loan only capital structures, 276 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: which means that there is no unsecured debt. So if 277 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: if you have a first lean loan in a loan 278 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: only capital structure, it really makes you wonder about recovery 279 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: assumptions because there's there's no cushion for the blow there 280 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: when when things go really bad. So, you know, loan 281 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: in private credit are two of the things that I 282 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: am thinking about within this context because I think that 283 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: ultimately what happens is government intervention is going to be 284 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: um kind of barbelled where the biggest corporations, the airlines, 285 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: the um, the real you know name brands that are 286 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: getting very hit in this economic slowdown. I think that 287 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: they're ultimately going to come through at the other end 288 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: because the government is going to provide support. And then 289 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: also I think that there's a tremendous focus on main 290 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 1: street now and these smaller businesses and trying to figure 291 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: out how do we you know, have have them, have 292 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: provided them enough liquidity to to manage through this. But 293 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: then there's this kind of middle ground of the economy 294 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: where you're not necessarily big enough to um get the 295 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: government's attention, but you're you're probably too big to benefit 296 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 1: from kind of the smaller you know, micro loan um 297 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 1: type packages that may ultimately come to fruition. Yeah, it 298 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 1: almost seems like wall streets easier to bail out than 299 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 1: main street. You know, in the in the financial crisis, 300 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: you knew where to point the fire hose at the 301 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 1: big banks. Uh, in this situation, it just seems like 302 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: the fire could be all around you, which just it 303 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: seems like a very tricky thing, uh, for the government 304 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: to wrap its head around. And I think that that 305 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: is something that we have tried to point out to 306 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 1: regulators and in our you know, just discussions and we've 307 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: had discussions with investors, is you can never fully eliminate 308 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 1: risk from the system, no matter how much relators would 309 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: like to try. You can shift risk around, and what's 310 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: ultimately happened is risk is now held on you know, 311 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: the balance sheet of most Americans in terms of you know, 312 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: what's in there for one k a what's in their 313 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: pension plan? Um? Because it's been much more of this 314 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 1: kind of shadow banking direct lending system that's emerged to 315 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: work around some of the regulatory issues that were put 316 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: in place and constrained the big banks. Absolutely, we are 317 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: really facing surreal times and crazy times, and it's true, 318 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: it's just hard to know where where do you direct 319 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: that fire hose? Where do you direct your efforts if 320 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: so many people across the spectrum are going to be affected? Yeah, Sarah, 321 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 1: was that a tease? They're the crazy times? Trying to 322 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: set you up a little bit when he did they 323 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: tell you about our gimmick. Here the craziest thing I 324 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: saw in markets? I was giving a little bit of 325 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 1: advanced warning and I also was doing my diligence and 326 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 1: listening to a few of the podcasts are there, So 327 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: that did actually radar. So we'll start with you, what's 328 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: the craziest thing you saw in markets this week? I 329 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: know it was a pretty tame week, not much going on, 330 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:03,399 Speaker 1: but something have many that I can talk about. Um, 331 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 1: you know, the first one, which is I'm still trying 332 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: to wrap my head around, is in the investment grade 333 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: corporate bond market, Tuesday of this week was the biggest 334 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: new issue volume day this year, so spreads, you know, 335 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,400 Speaker 1: more than more than double what they were earlier this year. 336 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: We were still able to price twenty seven billion of 337 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: i G bonds at an average coupon of three and 338 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: a half percent, which over the long term perspective, is 339 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: still a very attractive cost of capital for most investment 340 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: grade companies. What did I tell you about the help 341 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 1: of the market, So you know, I keep facilitating between 342 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: believing it's a tremendously engaging sign and a very terrifying sign. 343 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: Because on the one hand, if these deals are clean 344 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: clearing the market still able to borrow at you know, 345 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: very attractive eights, then that is a long term positive 346 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: thing for investors. Now, then I kind of look back 347 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: at at where yields went during the Great Financial Crisis, 348 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: because you know, in in many other markets we've we've 349 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: seen much more of a repricing of you know, cost 350 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,919 Speaker 1: of capital um. And then I begin to wonder, you know, 351 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:30,200 Speaker 1: are these investors using up their liquidity flower power too quickly? 352 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 1: I certainly hope they're not um, But you know, I'm 353 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: gonna be the optimist and say the glasses half full. 354 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: And if the credit markets are continuing to function and 355 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: the new issue market is open, then that is that 356 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: is an encouraging, you know, glimmer of hope across financial markets. 357 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: The hunt for yield survives another day, yes, indeed. And 358 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 1: then you know, at the other end of the spectrum, 359 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: still in the investment grade market, there are some issuers 360 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: where the front end of the curve is so severely 361 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: inverted that you can buy an I G bond that 362 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:09,679 Speaker 1: has a maturity this year for call it. And then 363 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: if we look at the cash on hand from revolver 364 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: drawdowns and cash balances, they are covered in that bond 365 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 1: with cash on hand, you know, multiples over. So there's 366 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: there's a tremendous dislocation between you know what some parts 367 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: of the market are telling you and then other parts 368 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: of the market, and it's trying to figure out, you know, 369 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:34,160 Speaker 1: which signals should we believe in, which signals are falced on? Yeah, 370 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: and and so much of that must just be this 371 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,400 Speaker 1: this dollar funding squeeze and the liquidity issues, I would imagine, Yeah, 372 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: a lot of it. It just has to do with 373 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,399 Speaker 1: money markets, dollar funding and the front end of the curve. 374 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 1: Crazy times Sarah, how about you, what did you see 375 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 1: this week? I have too, but I'll keep it pretty 376 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: short and simple. One just Monday was absolutely insane. You 377 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 1: have another circuit pricket trigger and then I mentioned it, 378 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: But the vix ving to the highest level on records, 379 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 1: so above any single point of the global financial crisis 380 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 1: back in O eight oh nine. Um, pretty unbelievable. But 381 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: then just another interesting story. I thought, we have the 382 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 1: US government now talking about the idea of helicopter money, 383 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: but Facebook is moving ahead of the curve. They've already 384 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: said that they're giving each of its employees a one 385 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: thousand dollar bonus to help support them during the outbreak. 386 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 1: So just an insight to what some companies are already 387 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: trying to do to help alleviate any pain from their employees. Alright, 388 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 1: very good, very good. Well in the spirit of de regulation, Sarah, 389 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna bend the rules a little bit 390 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 1: on this. You've been the rulest like five weeks. But 391 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 1: because are trying times, go ahead, they're trying times. Obviously, 392 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,719 Speaker 1: the virus is the most important thing UH markets are 393 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: dealing with right now. So I'm I'm found some very 394 00:24:55,320 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: crazy virus related stories, not necessarily market related stories. But 395 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: if you have a terminal, I highly recommend you run 396 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: the function and I odd. It just finds all the 397 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: odd stories from the Internet and compiles it into one place. 398 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 1: It's it's really worth the subscription price alone. So let 399 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: me give you some of the craziest coronavirus stories I've 400 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 1: seen out there. Uh, New York Post is way ahead 401 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 1: of the game on this, I will say. And they 402 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: had one story a man in Spain. You know, obviously 403 00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: there's a shortage of face masks, so this guy in 404 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: Spain decided to get in his t Rex costume. It's 405 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 1: one of those inflatable t Rex costumes, and he was 406 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: wandering around Spain. But they arrested him, I guess because 407 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 1: he's he's not supposed to be outside, but he was 408 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 1: breaking the quarantine. Yes, yes, Also in the post here, 409 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: I'll just read the headline cheating husband catches coronavirus on 410 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: trip to Italy with mistress. Oh no, oh no, Karma 411 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: is alive and well in the time of the coronavirus. 412 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: And finally, this this one is vaguely markets related. And 413 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:08,159 Speaker 1: this is my favorite from CBS. Bernie made Off is 414 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 1: among the famous inmates out there who want an early 415 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 1: release because of coronavirus. He's a in his eighties. He's 416 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 1: worried that if the virus hits the the prison that 417 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: he will be susceptible at that age, one of the 418 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 1: people at risk. So I don't know when you think 419 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: they should? Should they spring? Bernie made off because of 420 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 1: the virus? What do you think? I feel like you're 421 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 1: almost safer in prison from the coronavirus than you are 422 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: outside of prison. That's just my my take on it. 423 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,719 Speaker 1: I think that's a little bit out of my wheelhouse. 424 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna smart answer smart. I'm not sure 425 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,480 Speaker 1: Bernie's gonna get away with this one. It seems it 426 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: seems like a uh. Well. With that said, trying to 427 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 1: keep a lighter tone in the midst of all of 428 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: this when he's he's are we know you're coming to 429 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 1: us from so we really appreciate you taking the time today. 430 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,400 Speaker 1: Happy to be here. This was a welcome deviation from 431 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: steering at the screens. What goes up? We'll be back 432 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: next week. Until then, you can find us on the 433 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: Blueberg Terminal website and app or wherever you get your podcasts. 434 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 1: We love it if you took the time to rate 435 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: interview the show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can 436 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,919 Speaker 1: find us. And you can find us on Twitter, follow 437 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 1: me at at Sarah Pontzack, Mike is that Reaganonymous, and 438 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: you can also follow us on Bluemberg Podcasts at podcasts. 439 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: What Goes Up is produced by Topur Forehead. The head 440 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg podcast is Francesco Leavi. Thanks for listening, See 441 00:27:42,760 --> 00:28:02,439 Speaker 1: you next time. Oh