WEBVTT - Align’s Kefauver on Tariffs, Tax Cuts and MAHA 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:15.680 Welcome to Chopping It Up. I'm your host, Mike Hanlon, 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:19.479 the senior Restaurant food Service Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. Our 0:00:19.520 --> 0:00:22.079 research and that a bi's five hundred analysts around the 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:26.040 globe can be found exclusively on the Bloomberg terminal. Enjoy 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:27.880 the pod. I'd love it if you could leave us 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:30.760 a review on Apple or Spotify. Today I'm joined by 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:33.159 Joe Keith Appert. Joe is a founding partner of a 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:37.080 Line Public Strategies, a full service public affairs and creative firm. 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:40.560 He's the host of the Working Lunch podcast and my 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:44.080 go to source for all things public policy. Thanks for 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:46.040 returning to the podcast, Joe. 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.040 Mike, it is great to be here on Chopping It Up. 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:51.559 I always love being on it, always love listening to it. 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:52.520 So you do a great job. 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:57.000 Thanks man, I appreciate it, and check out Joe's pod. 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.840 He does a great job man, of really getting in 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:03.320 the weeds is some of the regulatory issues that our 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:05.759 industry is facing. Man, it's really good stuff. 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:10.320 I recently received an award as the most boring podcast. Uh, 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:11.880 I'm very proud of that. 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:15.039 I disagree, man, you know, because we hear about stuff 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:18.400 on the on the on the federal level level. Right, 0:01:18.440 --> 0:01:20.760 but unless it's things are happening in our state, and 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:22.760 you know, we tend not to hear about it. So 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:26.560 it's good to hear from from you and your co 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:30.080 host about, uh, you know, what's what's coming down the pip, 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:32.280 what we're seeing in some of the other states. So 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:34.600 is the worst of the tariff show down behind us? 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:39.440 You know, anyone that has ever been in the business 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:41.720 of trying to predict what this president is going to 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:42.480 do is broke. 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:45.320 So you don't know. 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:49.680 But you know, Michael, the the the the collision between 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:56.520 politics and policy is often brutal, and especially populist politics, 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:57.160 and so. 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:03.320 It takes a while well for the reality to catch 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.000 you up to the rhetoric. And I think tariffs is 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:10.959 a perfect example of that. Obviously, the president campaign in large, 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:14.280 you know, in large part on this kind of strategy, 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:21.080 and he is, you know, fulfilated this narrative that somehow 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.000 we're on the short end of all these trade deals 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:25.800 and and so forth, and we need to right the 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:29.600 right the ship. And then conversely, you know, people argue that, well, 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:31.239 he just uses this kind of as a chess piece. 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:32.280 It's part of a broader game. 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:34.320 He's trying to get concessions on the form policy or 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.600 whatever that may be. Right, So regardless of where you 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.400 fall down on that, there are some real world implications 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.840 for folks. Obviously in the restaurant industry is having a 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:47.239 conversation earlier. You know, we're the we're the caboosts on 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:50.000 a big, long train, and the egg industry is the 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:53.120 front of that train, and the restaurant industry is the 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.360 caboost of that train. And if in front of that 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:59.240 train is suffering or derails, man, we're we're sure to follow. 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:04.360 And so I worry about the tariffs on the ag community, 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.760 especially with regard to interestingly enough, not stuff we import 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:13.200 with stuff we export. So much of American agriculture exported Michael. Today, 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.520 as a matter of fact, we're taping this today. 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:16.240 The New York. 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:21.240 Times has a their daily podcast and they're interviewing a 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:24.520 soybean and corn farmer from Iowa, and she said about 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.200 fifty five percent of her total product and her peer 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:31.919 group all goes to China. And so you talk about 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:35.800 the marketplace and what happens, and you know, agribusiness now 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.800 it's floating, especially the family farms floating on loans, and 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:40.480 it's a future's business, and there's. 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:43.600 All tons of uncertainties in agg anyway. 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:46.920 And then you add all of this and the ramifications, 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:49.480 there's no good there's no good thing that comes out 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:52.640 of it. I do think, you know, this week we 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:56.480 saw the CEOs of the big retail, big boxes, Walmart, 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:58.440 targets and mothers go into the White House and they 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:00.880 basically said, look at present, we get, we get what 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:03.080 you're trying to do here, but understand the ramifications are, 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:04.960 in about two weeks, you're gonna start to see a 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:08.480 lot of empty store shelves as a supply chain uh 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:09.640 dries up. 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:12.920 And that's going to be relayed on your lap politically, right. 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.600 And and you saw later that day he comes out 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.400 and pumps the brakes on a bunch of tariff stuff, right, 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:23.160 And it's it's it's it's when that reality sets in 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.479 and when his political base, which is a large part 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.760 of corporate America, the AD community, start to go, hey, 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:32.919 all fun and games until it's not. And we're getting 0:04:32.920 --> 0:04:34.680 to the point where it's it's kind of really not. 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:37.920 And you know, everybody, our whole, our whole political system 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:40.600 our economic system, foreign policy, whatever it is, is based 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:41.320 on stability. 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:41.600 Right. 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:44.000 It's an under it's a foundational billing block, and everything 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:45.960 to do is stability. We want to be predictive, We 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.719 want to understand what's going to happen the next quarter, 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:50.640 the next year, the next year, whatever that may be. 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.479 And instability is not good for anybody. So I don't 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:57.320 say that it's behind us totally to get to get 0:04:57.320 --> 0:04:59.120 to the root of your question, but I do think 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.039 kind of the worst of that is kind of played 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:03.880 out of its system. He's gotten the political energy out 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.560 of it for the constituents he wanted to get the 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:10.240 energy out of it with Right, and now it's time 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.719 to kind of go okay, and so he can't completely 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:14.640 back off of it to save face. But you see 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:18.599 every he continues to delay or pump the brakes and 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:23.240 then politically claim victory right, and his constituency says, well, 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:25.920 we won that conversation with China or Canada or Mexico. 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:27.360 So there's really almost no. 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.760 Political price to be paid for it until there's an 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:34.440 economic price for the country, and then he will he 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:35.000 will wear that. 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.680 Well, that's good to hear man. Do you think reciprocal 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.880 tariffs can lead to fewer global tariffs over time. I 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.920 now we've seen some of our partners say they pull 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.960 back on their tariffs. You know, obviously Trump that wasn't 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:49.880 enough for the Trump administration. They will also want to 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:55.520 see maybe less subsidies and different tax treatment. What are 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:56.200 your thoughts on that? 0:05:56.800 --> 0:06:01.599 Yeah, listen, you never know how a country is going 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:02.120 to react. 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.240 I was actually kind of surprised, not so much with 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:11.280 the Chinese, but certainly Europe, the EU and Canada. They 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:13.720 didn't just fold over, right, And I think when you're 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.039 playing this game, you don't know how they're going to. 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:17.919 Respond to They just acquiesced. 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.480 And we saw a couple of Latin American countries kind 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.400 of acquiesce, but we didn't see that in other the 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:26.400 bigger trading partners across the world. And so I think 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:30.920 the short term thing is again separating politics and policy 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:33.040 to actpt policy outcomes. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.440 It's a zero sum game. The only the only person. 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:41.279 That really loses in the whole thing as American consumer, right, 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:45.359 And so you know that's cool until it's not cool anymore. 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:49.040 So I think you're going to see a a flare 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.440 ups and spaces flare ups at times, but an overall 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:55.120 pumping of the breaks slowly over time, so you can 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:58.479 still kind of politically have appear to have the high 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:03.200 ground on it. It'll flare up again in probably June 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:10.160 of twenty twenty twenty six, about six months before the 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:14.160 midterm elections because as political juice, and we'll start having 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.000 this conversation again. So I don't I don't mean it 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:18.400 sounds so cynical, but I think that the headlines and 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:20.200 the stories kind of back up what I'm saying is 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:23.320 where where we were six weeks ago and where we 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:25.000 are now is a very different time. And I think 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:27.320 that's trajectory will continue over the next six to six 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:28.360 weeks to six months. 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.000 Yeah, it's fascinating to watch. I mean, there's there's no 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.920 way you're gonna shift from a system that has always 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:38.440 prioritized capital over labor, you know, to kind of flip 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:42.040 that on its head and not expect some bumps in 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:45.680 the road. So definitely keeping meat busy man that it is. 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:47.800 And you know, if I'm the CEO of a major 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:51.520 company that you're that you're that you're covering, you know, 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:55.000 I I know we have long term agreements in place 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:59.720 with certain certainly a suppliers, but I'm you know, the market, 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:02.800 not to get too much into your sandbox, but certainly 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:07.480 the market rewards growth, and growth is in part predicated 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.920 on a access to capital instability or in that market, 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.680 and be equipment, access to equipment. A lot of our 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:16.720 restaurant equipments friars or dishwashers or whatever comes out of Asia. Right, 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:19.640 And so I've made certain commitments to the street about 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:21.600 what my growth plant looked like over the next you know, 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:24.920 two years, five years, and now all that's kind of 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.679 hanging in the ether, and I suspect that some stock 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:31.720 prices over the next year or so, we'll take take 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:32.240 a pounding. 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.040 Yeah, we'll see. They sure sure did over the last 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.240 couple of weeks. All right. I'm looking forward to the 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.880 day that the narrative shifts from tariffs to tax cuts. 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.840 Does anything stand in the way of eliminating taxes on 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:46.040 tips and overtime? 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:51.120 You know, again, rhetoric meeting reality. It's kind of a 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:54.280 theme here. I think, you know, when when when the 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:59.680 president announced that policy idea, I guess at a rally 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:04.120 and h during the campaign, and everybody kind of jumped 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.520 on board. It was one of those things that that 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:10.280 that got ahead of itself. You saw a race among 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:14.880 Republican senators to get a gold star from the President 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.640 and introduced legislation, ran down, Ted Cruz ran down the 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:19.480 Senate floor, and next thing, you know, we have legislation 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:22.719 blah blah blah. And of course the industry has to 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:25.160 go whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, let's pump the brakes here. 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:27.880 This is a very complicated area of the law, forty 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:31.040 five B tax credit. You know, our whole our own 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:33.640 models predicated on this forty five B tax credit, you know, 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.679 in terms of the about casual dining obviously, and you know, 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:41.120 sit down, full servi, full service restaurants. And they had 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:42.959 to you know, the NRA and others had to race 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:44.520 up the Capitol hill in the who who who Let 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:49.640 me explain how this whole ecosystem works here and here 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.040 it is April twenty fourth. We haven't heard much about 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:56.200 that issue federally. I know that in December after the election, 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.440 John Thune, the majority leader uh the Senate, was like, 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:02.040 this a very high priority and members, we're talking about it. 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:05.040 People were talking about it in town hall meetings and 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.120 here we are in April, and no one's talking too 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:12.240 much about Now. Other headlines have sucked a little bit 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:13.880 of the oxygen out of the room, right, Obviously, the 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:15.960 tariff stuff and what's going on, you know, all that 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:19.079 kind of stuff. But it is not an easy thing. 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.320 And when you've got the NRA and the restaurant's going, well, 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:25.560 what's super careful here, kind of takes some of the 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:27.000 gat the gleam off of it. 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:27.200 Right. 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:29.000 There are a couple of states that are pursuing that 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:32.480 as well, but we didn't see states jump in. We 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:37.320 saw a bunch of states with legislation that really was 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:41.480 just for the cameras and really didn't go anywhere. And 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:44.120 of course you'd want to let something like that be 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.160 reconciled federally before you start monking with that at the 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:50.920 state level. But it was it was fraught with potholes 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:53.960 and pitfalls. And I'm not saying the issue is going 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:58.199 away because it's political merit in it, but it's super complicated, 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:01.920 as you well know. And I don't think yeah, I 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:05.320 mean the president candidate Trump at the time, former President 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:07.920 Trump at the time, heard this from a server on 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:11.040 a stage and went out two minutes later, there was 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:12.960 no policy and there was no white paper at a 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:14.439 heritage foundation on this thing. 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:16.000 All of a sudden, it is. 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.480 The fifty yard line of a conversation, and it's it's 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:21.360 been hard over the last four or five months to. 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.840 Pump the brakes level set understand. 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:27.960 What's going on here, and so I think the enthusiasm 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:31.320 on that space has dropped a little bit. I think 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:33.040 that if they could figure out a way to do it, 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:37.640 they would pursue it because it has a lot of 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:42.440 political juice in it, especially with their overarching theory of 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.920 trying to have more outreach to the working class and 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:47.160 working class voters and so forth. So it fits nicely 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.679 into their overall strategy. This one's just super complicated. And 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.120 you start opening up the tax code and exempting this 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.720 person from income tax, so this part of their income 0:11:56.720 --> 0:11:59.719 from then what's next, you know, and just dominoes start 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:02.080 to all doubt And so I think cooler heads have 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:04.120 forvailed on that issue. It remains to be seen what's 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:04.600 gonna happen. 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:08.040 Seems like the MAHA movements made some progress in some 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:09.280 state legislatures. 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.200 Yeah, we saw you know, West Virginia, and you know, 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:15.480 no one's ever said, you know, let's follow West Virginia's 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.680 lead on state legislation, but they were out there first 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:23.360 and banned a number of dies and preservatives and so forth. 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:27.319 And we saw Sarah Huckaby Sanders just last week sign 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:33.439 they've Senate Bill nine into law with a little broader list, 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:35.680 and we have a big bill kind of the last 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:37.320 what I would think is kind of the last big 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.480 bill of the year, just because you know, a lot 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:44.000 of the state legislature is already out, especially some of 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:45.840 the red states where this is going are already out. 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:49.400 Louisiana has a massive bill as like fifty one I 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:54.760 think ingredients in it, you know, so it hasn't gone 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.200 to so many states, but the conversation certainly has. But 0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:01.520 again that's another one that's that's that's complicate, right, and 0:13:02.520 --> 0:13:05.640 you know, from an industry perspective, and whether it's a 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:09.480 manufacturing side or the retailers O the restaurants, so much 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.440 of what's in the I think all of the Louisiana bill, 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:17.800 all those fifty one entities or ingredients are banned in 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.800 the UK, EU, Canada already right in parts of the world, 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:24.320 So you know, it's hard to have a leg to 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:26.680 stand on to say, well, we can't do this, We 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:27.200 can't do that. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:29.240 You know, obviously we probably can. 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.280 It's just whether we can how much time they give 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.240 you to kind of reformulate, and you know, and so forth. 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.559 But it's got a lot of political energy. But I 0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:38.280 think it's another issue. I feel like I'm kind of 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:40.680 a cynical black cloud on it. I don't mean to be, 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.040 but I'm just trying to be, you know, predictive of 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:45.280 where the conversation goes. 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:46.000 You know. 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.560 I think it's another one where it's kind of cool 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:53.120 until it's not right, and once you start going down 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.280 the road and and and really trying to. 0:13:58.000 --> 0:13:58.920 Dig into space. 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:04.520 At some point when John Q voter in Iowa their 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:08.720 kid can't get fruity pebbles anymore, there's what the hell's 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:09.439 going on around here? 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:09.680 You know? 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.720 And and I think the same thing is happening with soda. 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:14.640 We're starting to see some of the things in the 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:18.160 Louisiana Bill, the Arizona Arkansas Bill have to deal with 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:22.080 soda colorings and formulations. And you start messing with John 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.240 Q viewed voters PEPSI man, and all of a sudden 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:26.120 you're now you're hitting a. 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:27.680 Little too close to home, right, and so we'll see 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:28.400 where that goes. 0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:32.080 You know, I don't I think if I'm a restaurant operator, 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:35.200 whether large or small, I think it's like what is 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:37.720 the next set of dominoes? If you if you start 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.280 off and this dies and food coloring that has really 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:46.480 very little attachment to any real science, you know, around 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:50.600 the causations of different You know what happens when you 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.240 have some real science behind it, i e. 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:54.880 Obesity, salt, sugar. 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:57.240 And so if I'm a rest in the restaurant world, 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:01.600 whether you know, trade association or company, I'm watching this 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:03.080 and that was okay, and I know my manu, my 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:05.520 supply chain would largely take care of it and we'll 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.360 figure it out. But if you started getting into sugars 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.480 and salts and fats and all that kind of stuff. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.120 Now now it's getting a little close to home, We'll 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:14.080 see where that goes. 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:16.800 You know. I laugh about this particular space. 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:20.120 If you're really you know, you're the Health and Human 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:25.320 Services secretary, you have the MAHA movement. The biggest things 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.840 to make America unhealthy are boos and smokes. 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.880 They've said nothing about boos and smokes. So it's like, how. 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:34.120 Much energy is in this, you know, short term? Yeah, 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.320 it's good politics. It's an interesting political coalition between kind 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:42.760 of lefty granola moms and anti science moms over here. 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:49.440 And it's it's a very very interesting political grassroots coalition. 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.200 It's and it has potential. I mean, if if you 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:54.600 get going on other other issues. It reminds me of 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.480 it could be the the Mad, if you will, of 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.640 this generation where you know, parts of the country or 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:02.880 blue or red or whatever, we're all united around this 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:05.720 issue set right, And I think MAHA is a lot 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.080 of the building blocks of the of the Mad movement 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:11.440 of you know, twenty twenty five years ago. So I 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:16.040 watch I'm fascinated by not so much the policy directives 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.920 and outcomes, but by the grassroots coalition that they're building 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.120 around that and what that does to overall kind of 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:25.240 I don't know, activism patterns, voting patterns, grassroots pattern that 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:26.560 I find MAHA fascinating. 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.440 It's really interesting too, or something to see more chains 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:33.920 adopt each tallow versus some of these oils, right, yeah. 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.680 You know, and I saw some chains kind of get 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.280 out front, and I'm thinking more of political the steak 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:42.280 and shake stuff. We've seen a couple of other chains. 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:45.240 It's gonna be hard for some change to make that 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:52.320 make that transitions. Then that one's you know, I don't know. 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:55.080 I probably should, but I don't know what McDonald's going 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:57.120 to pick on McDonald's. 0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:57.520 Just because they're the biggest. 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:01.480 But when I go into that McDonald I know, whether 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:05.040 I'm in Spokane, Washington or Tampa, Florida, what those French 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.560 routes are going to taste like. And when I drive 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.440 in in two years and they taste different, I'm gonna 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.280 be upset. It's not like my I like it the 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.800 way it is right, And so we'll we'll we'll see 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.560 all that plays out. But the the the Louisiana bill 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:22.000 that I referenced earlier is the kind of the first 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:23.840 one that really starts to play in the oils space 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:25.919 as well. So it's it's a super interesting bill for 0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:28.080 your audience to kind of go look at and understand. 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:30.399 All right, great, one fair wage is moving onto my 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:33.520 home state. Are they going to have any success eliminating 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:35.159 the tech tip credit in New Jersey? 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.720 You know, Oh my good, this is a great question. 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:41.159 I I ultimately I don't think so if I were 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:44.479 going to Vegas and bedding, I would not. You know, 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:46.320 we've we've likened this, you know. 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.040 Is this the the. 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:52.320 Resurgence of a movement or is this kind of that 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:55.440 death rattle before the patient goes under, that last kind 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:59.440 of spasmive activity before it's over. I am completely shocked 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.440 that they continue you as an entity to receive funding. 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:07.040 Their their legislative political track record over the last couple 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:09.720 of years has been abysmal. I mean, they've they've won 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.320 in the City of Chicago, they've lost bout initiatives, and 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:18.400 you know, Massachusetts and legislation Baltimore and you know, state 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.640 of Mayor, all these places. They're just losing left and right. 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:24.000 I don't think that they're going to be able to 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.520 be successful in New Jersey. You never know, but unlikely. 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:31.520 I mean, you gotta look down ninety five of what's 0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:32.880 happened in the restaurant industry in DC. 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:34.760 It's a little more complicated. 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.399 Obviously, COVID kept much of the customer base of the 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:43.760 restaurant industry out of the city. Remote work kept it 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:45.560 from backfilling up. And in the middle of this, the 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:48.600 voter's passed this tip cradit elimination, which is just I mean, 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:51.360 you know, kind of nailing the coffin for a lot 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:55.080 of restaurant owners. But I think the issue can be 0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:00.600 framed in a way that the destructive impact that the 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:03.480 tip cred elimination had, and it's just right down the street. 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:06.480 I don't find a lot of fervor in New Jersey 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:07.520 for what's going on. 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:13.040 Similarly, they have this legislation in India in Illinois to 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.840 replicate what Chicago did, and everybody's like, no, we're not 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:17.000 doing that again, you know. 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:21.679 So you know, I think it's kind of the death rattle. 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:23.879 I just don't know where they're gonna get their funding, 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:28.080 where they gonna get their funding note to continue. So 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:31.320 I don't see it. I don't see it happening in Baltimore. 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.160 I don't see it happening in New Jersey. I don't 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:36.439 see it happening in Illinois. So we'll see where that 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:39.080 movement goes. But there they're still active, you know, rattling 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:41.360 their pots and pans. They were up in Albany this 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:44.800 week rallying at the capitol about the bill up there. 0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:46.840 They were in Springfield this week riding on the pots 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.680 and pans about the bill there, but I think it's 0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:51.280 just kind of for the short term cameras, and I 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.920 don't think it has really any impact, gotcha. 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:57.920 Yeah, And it's bummer to hear what's going on there, 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:00.680 you know, in the with the restaurant industry in d C. 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:02.960 Man our old stomping grounds. 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:07.200 Yeah, it's it's it's a bad it's it's just a 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:09.400 it's not even a one to two punch, but it's 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:12.000 been a one, two, three punch for them, and it's 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:14.760 been and now you know, half I guess a four 0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:18.159