Speaker 1: Good morning everybody. I hope your day is off to
Speaker 1: a good start.
Speaker 2: We are sort of barreling towards a potential government shutdown
Speaker 2: today tonight if nothing changes. So Emily and I just
Speaker 2: wanted to give you a little update on what has
Speaker 2: happened since Breaking Points aired yesterday. Great to see you, Emily,
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining me this morning.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me Crystal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course I need you to interpret what's going
Speaker 2: on in the Republican side of the ledger here, So
Speaker 2: let me just give people a little bit of an update.
Speaker 2: So yesterday we heard from Trump and Musk and others
Speaker 2: that they had a new deal in order to avert
Speaker 2: this government shutdown. So basically, they need to fund the government.
Speaker 2: And Trump also wants them to extend the debt sealing
Speaker 2: or get rid of the debt ceiling altogether, which is
Speaker 2: something I would certainly support, And so he put out
Speaker 2: this statement here success in Washington, Speaker Mike Johnson, the
Speaker 2: House have come to a very good deal for the
Speaker 2: American people to newly agreed to American Relief Act of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. We'll keep the government open, fund our
Speaker 2: great farmers, and and provide relief for those severely impacted
Speaker 2: by the very devastating hurricanes. A very important piece vital
Speaker 2: to the American First Agenda was added as well. The
Speaker 2: date of the very unnecessary debt ceiling will be pushed
Speaker 2: out two years to January thirtieth, twenty twenty seven. Now
Speaker 2: we can make America great again very quickly, which is
Speaker 2: what the people gave us a mandate to accomplish. So
Speaker 2: you will, guys will probably recall there originally was a
Speaker 2: deal that had been negotiated between Democratic and Republican leadership
Speaker 2: that both included continuing government funding and also had a
Speaker 2: lot of other pieces. So there was something that would
Speaker 2: rein in pharmacy benefit managers, there was money for research
Speaker 2: into pediactric cancer, a whole bunch of other priorities that
Speaker 2: were put into there as well. And that's what Elon
Speaker 2: Musk and some of the Republicans began vociferously objecting to
Speaker 2: and cause that whole thing to fall apart, leaving this
Speaker 2: process and told okaias so, this announcement from Trump is, hey, guys,
Speaker 2: we have another new deal that includes fewer of those
Speaker 2: other things, more just sort of like closer to a
Speaker 2: quote unquote clean continuing our resolution plus extension of the
Speaker 2: debt ceiling that they negotiated amongst themselves that went to
Speaker 2: a floor vote yesterday and you know, spoiler alert, it
Speaker 2: did not end up passing. But Emily, before we get
Speaker 2: to some of the more details, you know, what was
Speaker 2: your initial reaction to the contours of this deal as
Speaker 2: it was laid out.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so exactly what you just said in the sense
Speaker 4: that this is twenty fourteen. Basically, this feels like the
Speaker 4: fights twenty fifteen, the fights against John Bayner, with one
Speaker 4: major difference. You know, back then, it was Jim Jordan
Speaker 4: and Mark Meadows putting together the House Freedom Caucus and
Speaker 4: saying we are always going to object to omnibus bills.
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson it comes in after Kevin McCarthy and says
Speaker 4: we're not doing omnibus bills.
Speaker 3: We're just we're not gonna do it. So you're always.
Speaker 4: Going to have the chip Roys, the Thomas Massey's of
Speaker 4: the world opposing what Mike Johnson negotiated. And he probably
Speaker 4: would have had to have Democrats for it in order
Speaker 4: to get this.
Speaker 3: Bill passed, and it probably would have. But this is
Speaker 3: what happened.
Speaker 4: Elon Musk and Viveik, now that they are in charge
Speaker 4: of the Advisory Department of Government Efficiency, realized they could
Speaker 4: not stay quiet on what Johnson was about to do,
Speaker 4: which was a very normal, conventional Washington compromise in order
Speaker 4: to avoid a Christmas shutdown. But they knew they couldn't
Speaker 4: just shut up because this thing had like funding for
Speaker 4: the Global Engagement Center, which has funded places that like
Speaker 4: suppressed conservative websites and all of those like that. You can't,
Speaker 4: as if you're head of DOGE, say oh, but we'll
Speaker 4: fix it next year. So because they intervened, this became
Speaker 4: dramatic and it wasn't going to be at all, And
Speaker 4: normally you would have had the exact same people protesting.
Speaker 4: The only difference this time around is they got a
Speaker 4: shot in the arm from Elon and Vivek, and that's
Speaker 4: where everything sort of spun into the drama.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, originally just for people to recall, Republicans control
Speaker 2: the House, but the margin is very, very very narrow.
Speaker 2: So if you even have a handful of dissenters say nope,
Speaker 2: not voting for an omnou omnibus deal, then you're done.
Speaker 2: You have to work with the Democrats. So that's what
Speaker 2: they did. Johnson had negotiated this. He seemingly felt that
Speaker 2: he had the blessing of Trump in terms of these
Speaker 2: original negotiations, and it certainly appeared, although you know, we'll
Speaker 2: get to the Trump people really pushed back on this,
Speaker 2: but it certainly appeared like Elon jumps in and forces
Speaker 2: Trump's hand because Trump doesn't really care about austerity. He
Speaker 2: has not positioned himself as an austerity politician. In fact,
Speaker 2: he's really positioned himself opposite of that, and it's part
Speaker 2: of how he was so successful in terms of the
Speaker 2: Republican Party, and so he's fine with what they're negotiating.
Speaker 2: Elon starts tweeting up a storm, causes a ruckus, creates
Speaker 2: this kind of collapse in support among the Republican caucus.
Speaker 2: So it's not just now a few dissenters, but it's
Speaker 2: most of the caucus. So you no longer have a
Speaker 2: deal that's tenable, that can be passed, so that all
Speaker 2: falls apart the new deal that they struck. This is
Speaker 2: some of the contours of it internal GOP funding deal.
Speaker 2: Johnson's expected to put on the floor funding extension for
Speaker 2: three months, clean Farm Bill extension one hundred and ten
Speaker 2: billion dollar disaster aid package as negotiated with Democrats. This
Speaker 2: is like for western North Carolina, other places that were
Speaker 2: really hard hit by the series of hurricanes. Clean healthcare
Speaker 2: provision extenders. I don't really know what that means minus
Speaker 2: PBM reform. That's actually a real loss because that pharmacy
Speaker 2: benefit reform would help to bring down prescription drug prices
Speaker 2: and is something that has bipartisan support and critically a
Speaker 2: two year suspension of the debt limit to January twenty
Speaker 2: twenty seven. And Emily, maybe you can speak a little
Speaker 2: bit to this debt limit part. But part of what's
Speaker 2: going on here, which is also funny, is Republicans have
Speaker 2: consistently used the debt limit to sort of extract concessions
Speaker 2: from Democrats. They'll use it as effectively a hostage shaking tactic.
Speaker 2: So now that Trump is going to be in the
Speaker 2: White House, he wants to not have to deal with
Speaker 2: the debt ceiling and have that hanging out there because
Speaker 2: he wants to be able to do in particular his
Speaker 2: you know, extension of the tax getting jobs actually primarily
Speaker 2: goes to the wealthy. He wants to make sure all
Speaker 2: of that is taken care of Now that is contra
Speaker 2: to the chip roy and the Thomas Massey's of the world,
Speaker 2: who don't think that they should ever vote for a
Speaker 2: debt sealing increase period. End of story. So already you
Speaker 2: can see that there are some even within the Republican Caucus,
Speaker 2: some potential fissures here, not to mention Democrats feeling like, well,
Speaker 2: screw you, guys. We had a deal. You've got control.
Speaker 2: You know, you have the majority of the House. If
Speaker 2: you want to fund if you want to figure this
Speaker 2: out amongst yourselves, go do it and leave us out
Speaker 2: of it, because the deal we negotiated you've now at
Speaker 2: this point tanked.
Speaker 4: And what does Elon do if Trump is as president,
Speaker 4: because they this is a win for Donald Trump. Kicking
Speaker 4: the debt ceiling to twenty twenty seven means he's not
Speaker 4: going to have to deal with it in the first
Speaker 4: six months of his president, which would be that could
Speaker 4: raise some serious tensions, like for example, Elon Musk, like
Speaker 4: for example, with the chip Roys, who Donald Trump went
Speaker 4: after by name yesterday and said, very unpopular member chip Roy,
Speaker 4: et cetera. Chip Roy is one of his most ardent
Speaker 4: defenders and is a very like actual principled conservative.
Speaker 2: Is stalwart Tea party style. Yes, conservative died in the wooll.
Speaker 2: You know, attempting to be very I mean is not
Speaker 2: my politics, but trying to be principled about his deficit
Speaker 2: hawk view of the world.
Speaker 4: And this is where you have that new tension with
Speaker 4: Trump and potentially with Elon. What does Elon think about
Speaker 4: lifting the debt ceiling? What if Donald Trump is just like, hey,
Speaker 4: we've got doge. We're working on shrinking the size of
Speaker 4: the government, We're working to make it more efficient. So
Speaker 4: we're just gonna lift this debt ceiling.
Speaker 3: And what did the debt hawks do? So he now
Speaker 3: he avoids having that fight.
Speaker 4: Six months into his presidency with a margin of like
Speaker 4: what one to three members of the House of Representatives.
Speaker 3: I mean, it would be a really, really tough battle.
Speaker 4: So that's a when what they did is say we're
Speaker 4: just going to do a kind of skinny CR clean CR.
Speaker 4: The Continuing Resolution is basically leaving government funding at the
Speaker 4: level that it is. We don't know if that's gonna work.
Speaker 4: It cut out a lot of the random stuff, but
Speaker 4: it does still have things like they had to reauthorize
Speaker 4: the Farm Bill, like that was there are certain things
Speaker 4: that were on a deadline, like the hurricane funding is
Speaker 4: another good example. So still a big bill, but a
Speaker 4: big bill that a lot of them are going to
Speaker 4: have to vote for.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's the contours of the bill, the quote
Speaker 2: unquote deal that was struck within the caucus, and as
Speaker 2: Emily's pointing to, even within the Republican caucus, there are
Speaker 2: problems with this deal, and in order for them to
Speaker 2: pass it effectively on their own, they need to basically
Speaker 2: get every single person in the caucus to vote alongside
Speaker 2: of it.
Speaker 1: So we've mentioned chip Roy.
Speaker 2: He was not the only one who ends up voting
Speaker 2: against this deal within the Republican caucus. Actually, thirty five Republicans,
Speaker 2: which is quite significant, end up voting against it.
Speaker 1: But just to give you a sense of.
Speaker 2: You know, their view of the world and why they
Speaker 2: said that they opposed this deal, here is Chiproy on
Speaker 2: the House aggressively making the case against this new version
Speaker 2: of the Continuing Resolution plus debt sealing extension. Let's take
Speaker 2: a listen to that.
Speaker 5: Fact to the matter is three hundred and thirty billion dollars. Congratulations,
Speaker 5: you've added to the debt since you were given the
Speaker 5: majority again on November fifth. It's embarrassing, it's shameful. Yes,
Speaker 5: I think this bill is better than it was yesterday
Speaker 5: on certain respects. But to take this bill, to take
Speaker 5: this bill yesterday and congratulate yourself because it's shorter in
Speaker 5: pages but increases the debt by five trillion dollars is asinine.
Speaker 5: And that's precisely what Republicans are doing. I'm absolutely sicken
Speaker 5: already the campaigns on fiscal responsibility and has the temerity
Speaker 5: to go board to the American people and say, you
Speaker 5: think this is fiscally responsible. It is absolutely.
Speaker 2: Ridiculous, Absolutely ridiculous. Now, I think it's an open question
Speaker 2: rather this party really campaigned on fiscal responsibility.
Speaker 1: Because that's not like a core Trump value.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like I said, one of the things
Speaker 2: that he really was known for breaking the mold of
Speaker 2: within the Republican Party, both in twenty sixteen again in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, it's like, I'm not going to touch those
Speaker 2: security I'm not going to touch Medicare. Obviously, those were
Speaker 2: longtime cuts of those programs, were long time priorities of
Speaker 2: the Republican caucus, and people like Chip Roy are still
Speaker 2: in that, you know, still very much in that camp.
Speaker 2: So in any case, Emily, the fact that you end
Speaker 2: up having not just chip Roy, but thirty five Republicans
Speaker 2: vote against this deal that both Elon and Trump ultimately
Speaker 2: get behind. Not to mention Mike Johnson, who's like feels
Speaker 2: sort of like irrelevant to this whole process, that we're
Speaker 2: being super real, what does that say to you?
Speaker 1: Because it is interesting.
Speaker 2: You clearly have some group within the caucus that is
Speaker 2: trying to strike somewhat of an independent stance here and
Speaker 2: not just look like they're being pulled around, pulled around
Speaker 2: by the nose, either by the President or by the
Speaker 2: richest man on the planet.
Speaker 3: It was interesting.
Speaker 4: I think it was maybe after RFK Junior started getting
Speaker 4: involved in the campaign. You would hear some of the
Speaker 4: techno guys Elon Musk talk about the debt and the
Speaker 4: deficit and sort of start campaigning on that. But it
Speaker 4: was in a different way. It was like in this
Speaker 4: big picture, long term way, and it made people like
Speaker 4: chip Roy really happy, like finally we're coupling this populism.
Speaker 4: It's kind of a throwback to the Tea Party, but
Speaker 4: a new variation of it, Like we're coupling this populism
Speaker 4: with concerns about the debt, and I think what they're
Speaker 4: learning right now is nobody is serious about that except
Speaker 4: for the people who are already serious about it, the
Speaker 4: chip Roys and Thomas Massey's, et cetera. And you know,
Speaker 4: that was probably a good prediction even back in September
Speaker 4: when these conversations were being had. But does ziel At
Speaker 4: Musk really I mean, I don't know if this is
Speaker 4: where you're going with it, if it's still adding five
Speaker 4: trillion dollars to the debt. Now, if you're Elon Musk
Speaker 4: and you're Donald Trump and you're Mike Johnson, Mike Johnson
Speaker 4: is somebody who's always Freedom Caucus adjacent and had high
Speaker 4: expectations for Mike Johnson.
Speaker 1: Emily, I would never know that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, It's it's like fight club. You don't you don't
Speaker 4: necessarily always say if you're in the Freedom Caucus.
Speaker 3: Johnson was not.
Speaker 4: But he he's also somebody who's who has talked, talked
Speaker 4: the talk about the debt for a long time. And
Speaker 4: he is not leading here. He's he looks like he's
Speaker 4: being led. I don't know if his speakership survives into
Speaker 4: next year. That is something that's being talked about intensely
Speaker 4: behind closed doors, actually out in the open right now
Speaker 4: as well.
Speaker 3: So, I mean, this is just like they have leverage.
Speaker 4: If you're Mike Johnson or Elon Musker, Donald Trump, right now,
Speaker 4: you're saying, we used all the leverage we possibly can.
Speaker 4: This is a Christmas shutdown. It is the Friday before Christmas.
Speaker 4: We're still going to add five trillion dollars to the
Speaker 4: debt because we're not going to solve the national debt
Speaker 4: crisis right now, sorry, chip Roy and Chip Roy and
Speaker 4: is like, hey, you're adding five trillion dollars to the debt,
Speaker 4: Like that's the impasse here, Yeah, And.
Speaker 3: They're just not.
Speaker 4: I mean that's the question is whether they can get
Speaker 4: anything passed right.
Speaker 2: Well, because because the margin is so narrow, if you
Speaker 2: even lose you know, Chip Roy, Thomas Massey, what they
Speaker 2: can lose like five people if that, and.
Speaker 4: Then they would I mean presumably they have to start
Speaker 4: adding pork back into the bill to get Democrats to
Speaker 4: vote for.
Speaker 1: That's that's right.
Speaker 2: So if you don't keep the Republican Caucus one hundred
Speaker 2: percent together, then you're going to have to you know,
Speaker 2: add back in the research funds for kids with pediatric cancer.
Speaker 1: You know you're going to have to add back in.
Speaker 2: There was some genuinely like you know, I know, there's
Speaker 2: people just have like a principle against putting things together
Speaker 2: in this one bill. But there were genuinely good things
Speaker 2: in this bill that I think you and I would
Speaker 2: both agree on, like the pharmacy Benefit manager thing that
Speaker 2: gets stripped down.
Speaker 1: You also had.
Speaker 2: A provision that would make sure that hotel like these
Speaker 2: random fees that you get in hotels, you have this
Speaker 2: provision about hotel fees and disclosure around them, which is
Speaker 2: you know, small ball, but the kind of thing that
Speaker 2: people like to be able to understand what they're they're
Speaker 2: paying for. And also many people noted there are some
Speaker 2: provisions in here that would have restricted investment in China.
Speaker 2: Elon of course has huge investments in China, and this
Speaker 2: provision maybe would have directly impacted him because it had
Speaker 2: to do with you know, high levels of technology things
Speaker 2: like AI investments. He has planned you know, AI investments
Speaker 2: with these a p tesla in China that.
Speaker 1: Gets stripped out.
Speaker 2: Suddenly Elon likes the bill. So there's a lot of
Speaker 2: self interest at play here as well. With regards to
Speaker 2: Elon Musk, which is you know, part of why, as
Speaker 2: a matter of principle, object to having this man who
Speaker 2: is not only the richest man on the planet, but
Speaker 2: has incredible conflicts of interest just throughout the entire government,
Speaker 2: is one of the largest contractors to the Pentagon, as
Speaker 2: one example, being so incredibly powerful in our politics. And
Speaker 2: so you see it in little things like this where
Speaker 2: maybe it gets stripped out just because Republicans want to
Speaker 2: strip a bunch of things out. Maybe it gets stripped
Speaker 2: out because this billionaire who now is a rival power
Speaker 2: center to President Trump himself, decided that this was not
Speaker 2: good for his own ideology and his own business interest.
Speaker 2: So go ahead, Emily, if you want to react to that,
Speaker 2: then we can talk a little bit about the democratic
Speaker 2: side here.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: No, I mean, I think it's it's like this. First
Speaker 4: of all, I love that your pets have formed their
Speaker 4: own freedom Caucus. I think it's very appropriate, like storming
Speaker 4: the Capitol relevant. But no, I mean, it's just it's
Speaker 4: this question about short term versus long term. And you know,
Speaker 4: if you can ever even address the long term, if
Speaker 4: you don't address the short term, that's what the trip
Speaker 4: roys of the world they're going to say. And I
Speaker 4: think what they're learning is that Elon musk might have
Speaker 4: this like theoretical concern about the national debt, but it's
Speaker 4: going to be secondary, probably to higher priorities.
Speaker 1: Indeed.
Speaker 2: All right, so you have the Republicans who some you know,
Speaker 2: thirty five of them are like, no, we're not going
Speaker 2: along with this, we don't want to raise the debt, sealing,
Speaker 2: et cetera. So then you need a good number several
Speaker 2: dozen Democrats to join you. So let's go ahead and
Speaker 2: play this is Actually it's interesting that this is this guy,
Speaker 2: Jared Moskowitz, who's actually been sort of like Elon curious.
Speaker 2: He was the one, isn't he the one that came
Speaker 2: out and was like, Oh, I'm going to join the
Speaker 2: Doge Caucus, like I want to be involved in this.
Speaker 2: So the fact that even a very centristy type Democrat
Speaker 2: like Moscowitz was going pretty hard against this deal was
Speaker 2: an indication that Democrats were more or less going to
Speaker 2: be lockstep against it.
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and listen to him making the case.
Speaker 2: In one minute to the gentleman from Florida and mister Moskowitz.
Speaker 4: The gentleman for Florida's recognized for one movie.
Speaker 6: Thank you as a speaker. You know, denial is not
Speaker 6: just a river in Egypt. Let's talk about the last
Speaker 6: two years. It was the Democrats who raised the debt ceiling,
Speaker 6: not the Republicans. Last time, many of you voted against it.
Speaker 6: It was the Demokrats who kept over the government. Not once,
Speaker 6: not twice, but every single time we needed to keep
Speaker 6: the government open. It was the Democrats who kept the
Speaker 6: government open. More of us voted for it than you
Speaker 6: and all I've heard for the last couple of weeks
Speaker 6: about this giant mandate landslide trifecta. Put on your big
Speaker 6: boy pants, pass.
Speaker 3: Your own bill. We're only here.
Speaker 6: We're only here because you guys can't agree amongst yourself.
Speaker 6: So hold on a second, Hold on a second. Democrats
Speaker 6: will keep government open for the American people. We will
Speaker 6: mediate the disagreements between that side of the room and
Speaker 6: that side of the room.
Speaker 3: We will do that for you.
Speaker 6: But you got to at least invite us to that meeting.
Speaker 6: So if you want us to solve your problem because
Speaker 6: you can't agree amongst yourselves, reach out.
Speaker 3: Thank you expressed.
Speaker 1: So there you go.
Speaker 2: Put on your big boy pants, Like, listen, y'all want
Speaker 2: to do this on your own, go ahead, do it
Speaker 2: on your own. But if you want us to participate
Speaker 2: and you want our votes, you're gonna have to negotiate
Speaker 2: with us, and you're gonna have to add back in
Speaker 2: some of these provisions that you took out. And I
Speaker 2: also Democrats are not in the mood to clear the
Speaker 2: decks on the debt ceiling for Trump either, so that
Speaker 2: he can have a free hand to mostly cut taxes
Speaker 2: for the rich, which is the one thing that's like
Speaker 2: almost guaranteed to happen in the new Trump administration because
Speaker 2: the Tax Cuts, Cuts and Jobs Act is up for
Speaker 2: certain provisions of it up for renewal. So Democrats, in
Speaker 2: the end, almost all of them are a handful of exceptions,
Speaker 2: vote in lockstab against this deal that was struck with
Speaker 2: Musk and Trump and Mike Johnson and whoever else in
Speaker 2: the Republican Caucus.
Speaker 3: And by the way, it goes to the Senate too,
Speaker 3: So I mean.
Speaker 2: I know that's so sure. We're just talking about the House.
Speaker 2: And not only does it go to the Senate, it's
Speaker 2: got to get sixty votes in the Senate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you're no, we're close to that.
Speaker 4: No, we're close, right, And it is, you know, Friday
Speaker 4: morning and they're supposed to vote on something, and we're
Speaker 4: about to talk about this at eleven unclear whether that
Speaker 4: passes now. At risk of sounding like Sager, it is
Speaker 4: sort of always fun to when there are moments of
Speaker 4: intense parliamentary theater and drama in the capital.
Speaker 3: It you know, makes us feel like the country is
Speaker 3: still alive.
Speaker 4: There was a point where like Rosa Delora from Connecticut,
Speaker 4: Democrat from Connecticut yielded her time to Chip Roy.
Speaker 3: It was good the dynamics.
Speaker 4: It's great when they when they have to when they
Speaker 4: have to work late at night before Christmas, they just
Speaker 4: all of their anger just gets taken out on each other.
Speaker 3: So it's that's fun to watch. Maybe we'll get more
Speaker 3: of it today.
Speaker 1: Actually, oh, I'm quite sure that we will.
Speaker 2: So you were just referencing the latest is so that
Speaker 2: bill goes down in flames, not even close in fact,
Speaker 2: they were using a method not to get you on
Speaker 2: the weeds here, but that would require two thirds majority
Speaker 2: to vote. Obviously, doesn't get anyonere close to that. It
Speaker 2: doesn't get really close to a majority.
Speaker 3: Either.
Speaker 2: And the latest is the House Republicans were meeting this morning,
Speaker 2: or some subset of them anyway, and Anna Polina Luna,
Speaker 2: who is a you know, trumpy Republican but also i
Speaker 2: think an alli Speaker Johnson right, Emily fair.
Speaker 1: To say she's just popular, Yeah, okay, all right.
Speaker 2: More or less, she's like kind of famous, didn't she
Speaker 2: the one that like posed in a bikini or something
Speaker 2: and got a lot of attention that way? Anyway, that's
Speaker 2: that lady. So she just came out of the Speaker's
Speaker 2: office and said there will be a vote on something
Speaker 2: very similar to yesterday. She said ours will not negotiate
Speaker 2: with Dems. She also said the vote will be at ten,
Speaker 2: which I've been told is ambitious internal leadership goal, not
Speaker 2: meant to be announced right now as we're recording this
Speaker 2: as nine forty am. Severely doubt they'll be voting on
Speaker 2: anything by ten am. But in any case, it's hard
Speaker 2: to see how the result would be any different if
Speaker 2: the bill is not substantially different, Emily, unless you see
Speaker 2: it differently.
Speaker 4: No, I have none of them know how this is
Speaker 4: going to work out. Again, we haven't even talked about
Speaker 4: Chuck Schumer and Democratic Senate leadership. Obviously, Democrats know that
Speaker 4: Republicans always get blamed for a shutdown, So no, and
Speaker 4: that's whether or not it's valid, you know. And sometimes
Speaker 4: it's like Democrats are refusing to negotiate. Cheryl Akinson actually
Speaker 4: posted kind of a long anecdote from twenty thirteen or
Speaker 4: twenty fourteen and how when she was inside CBS there
Speaker 4: was this internal pressure to get the story being about
Speaker 4: Republicans shutting down the government, and Republicans.
Speaker 3: Know that that's always what happens.
Speaker 4: But I think there's this lack of confidence or there's
Speaker 4: this confidence now, the swagger now, because I feel like
Speaker 4: they have the wind that they're back after Trump won,
Speaker 4: which is a why chip Away thinks they should be
Speaker 4: getting a better deal and b why they're playing a
Speaker 4: bolder hand that they're just going to be able to
Speaker 4: sort of circumvent the corporate media's narrative about how this
Speaker 4: is all Republicans fault and if Democrats refuse to negotiate,
Speaker 4: then they can somehow blame the Democrats.
Speaker 3: I just don't think that's gonna work.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, because you had a thing and then
Speaker 2: Elon starts tweeting, and then you don't have it. So
Speaker 2: I mean it's very clearly like the action was on
Speaker 2: the Republican side in terms of this really kind of
Speaker 2: it came a little bit out of nowhere. Usually these
Speaker 2: shut down threats have some like weeks if not months
Speaker 2: of build up and jockeying and what's going to happen
Speaker 2: and brinksmanship that can kind of appear to be like
Speaker 2: both sides, But this one because they had a deal
Speaker 2: and then it is just like Elon one day wakes
Speaker 2: up and starts tweeting, and then it's all collapsed. And
Speaker 2: now suddenly here you are, hours before the shutdown and
Speaker 2: Republicans are scrambling and can agree amongst themselves, et cetera. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty clear that the public is going
Speaker 2: to feel like you guys are the ones that the
Speaker 2: tanked the deal that created this chaos. And you know,
Speaker 2: there's real ramifications when the government shuts down, especially at
Speaker 2: the holiday time. It's not like every function shuts down.
Speaker 2: You still have essential workers and functions that are you know, occurring,
Speaker 2: but there are costs to it. Sager was pointing out
Speaker 2: people who are going to travel TSA is going to
Speaker 2: be more limited traffic to eric traffic controllers like you're
Speaker 2: going to have fewer personnel, you're gonna have more chaos
Speaker 2: in terms of travel. That's just one example of the
Speaker 2: types of services that won't continue in a government shutdown.
Speaker 2: Then you also have some of the additional pieces in
Speaker 2: this that were important to both sides, so the disaster
Speaker 2: relief being one of them. The farm relief, which actually
Speaker 2: I mean given that that's more of a constituent constituency
Speaker 2: for Republicans, is kind of more of an issue for
Speaker 2: conservative rural Republicans where because the previous farm bill wasn't
Speaker 2: they weren't able to go to a new farm bill,
Speaker 2: so they did like a continuing farm bill. So they
Speaker 2: haven't gotten the you know, the aid support that they
Speaker 2: need and that they're used to during this time. So
Speaker 2: the Farm Bureau is very concerned about what all of
Speaker 2: this means. So in any case, there are pieces here
Speaker 2: that are important to both sides of the ledger, and
Speaker 2: right now it is very unclear how this proceeds. You know,
Speaker 2: Jake Sherman is out saying he thinks the most likely
Speaker 2: thing is a quote unquote clean cr that is very
Speaker 2: short term. I'm talking like a few weeks just to
Speaker 2: get through the holidays and like reconvene and see what
Speaker 2: they can come up with in the new year. So
Speaker 2: that may be the case, but again you would have
Speaker 2: to get every Republican on board. And then again that
Speaker 2: leaves open the question of the Senate and whether that's
Speaker 2: gonna whether Democrats are going to go along with that,
Speaker 2: whether they're going to be incentivized just like I want
Speaker 2: to get out of here and get home to my
Speaker 2: kids and have Christmas enough to kick the can down
Speaker 2: of the road into January and figure this out in
Speaker 2: the new year.
Speaker 1: So that's kind of where things are.
Speaker 4: Well, and this might be the deal with Democrats. They're
Speaker 4: losing control of the Senate in the new Congress. So
Speaker 4: is the CR going to kick it until there's no
Speaker 4: Democratic control in the Senate that Democrats aren't in control
Speaker 4: of the Senate, or are they going to trick a
Speaker 4: deal that does it right before the new Congress.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a yeah, but it doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe it matters more than I'm thinking, but
Speaker 2: since you have to get that sixty votes super majority,
Speaker 2: I don't know that it matters that much. Whether it's
Speaker 2: Democrats who have a fifty to fifty Senate or whether
Speaker 2: it's Republicans who you know, have the fifty three to
Speaker 2: forty seven Senate, because you still are going to need
Speaker 2: some not insignificant number of Democrats to go along with
Speaker 2: whatever deal is ultimately struck, and they are not in
Speaker 2: the mood to help out Trump and give him what
Speaker 2: he wants. They're certainly not in the mood to help
Speaker 2: out Elon Musk or whatever. So they're happy to watch
Speaker 2: Republicans kind of stumble around and try to come up
Speaker 2: with something that they can all vote for in lockstep.
Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean that's why, that's exactly the reason
Speaker 2: why Mike Johnson and seemingly with the backing of Trump
Speaker 2: thought from the beginning, like, let's just deal with the
Speaker 2: Democrats now going into while Joe Biden is still in
Speaker 2: off as we could just blame them for any part
Speaker 2: of this that we don't really like that much, and
Speaker 2: then we'll have kind of a clean slate coming in,
Speaker 2: debt sealing taken care of, government funded, so we can
Speaker 2: do the things that we want to do. And now
Speaker 2: that possibility is no longer really on the table.
Speaker 4: It's been a I mean this is really setting the
Speaker 4: tone for how they're dealing with each other coming into
Speaker 4: a new Congress and a new presidential administration. Like, what
Speaker 4: is Elon's role, who is he allying with? Who is
Speaker 4: he talking to? Who is Trump talking to? Who is
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson talking to? This is going to this is
Speaker 4: they're entering the new year on shake your footing because
Speaker 4: of all of this, they're spinning it as they're entering
Speaker 4: the new year, possibly with getting a better deal. And
Speaker 4: if you're chip Roy, this has generally been positive because
Speaker 4: it showed that Doge is at least rhetorically interested in
Speaker 4: the things that you've been talking about since the Tea
Speaker 4: Party years.
Speaker 1: Yeah, even if you're.
Speaker 4: Disappointed in how they actually are, like, oh so they
Speaker 4: see some political value to having this conversation.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but.
Speaker 4: This has caused a lot of I mean, Trump should
Speaker 4: not be fighting with chip Roy going into the twenty
Speaker 4: twenty five.
Speaker 2: No, they I mean, they just won. They should all
Speaker 2: be aligned and in love with each other, you know.
Speaker 2: I mean, you're never happier with your team than when
Speaker 2: you on this giant winning streak, and that's exactly there.
Speaker 2: They should be riding high right now. So it also
Speaker 2: just raises. I mean, obviously the two competing power centers.
Speaker 2: I'll just throw up this last element to give to
Speaker 2: sort of elucidate that. But you know, it really looked
Speaker 2: like Elon was running the show in terms of this
Speaker 2: whole striving Trump was. Trump was fine to just go
Speaker 2: along with whatever deal was struck. Is certainly what it
Speaker 2: looks like. I think this is the response from Caroline Lovett. Nope,
Speaker 2: that is not the response from Caroline Lovett.
Speaker 4: You don't want to deal with Congress, right, He doesn't
Speaker 4: want to have to worry about the dynamics on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 4: He doesn't want to have to worry about what's good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's like, whatever, it's fine. I just want to, like,
Speaker 2: you know, come into office and be able to do
Speaker 2: my thing. This was Caroline Lovitt, who's the Trump spokesperson.
Speaker 1: Isn't she's going to be press secretary? Is that right?
Speaker 4: Am?
Speaker 1: I right about that?
Speaker 2: And then I go okay, So she responded to the
Speaker 2: Elon Musk is the real leader of the Republican Party
Speaker 2: rhetoric from the Democrats.
Speaker 1: She said.
Speaker 2: As soon as President Trump released his official stance on
Speaker 2: the cr continuing our resolution Republicans on Capitol Hill echoed
Speaker 2: his point of view, President Trump is the leader of
Speaker 2: the Republican Party full stop. I mean, the fact that
Speaker 2: they even felt the need to respond to that tells
Speaker 2: you this, this kind of gut this is getting under
Speaker 2: Trump's skin, and you know, I think it's only going
Speaker 2: to continue. Elon is out there, He's got all the
Speaker 2: money in the world. He was threatening primary challenges against
Speaker 2: any Republicans who don't go along. By the way, he's
Speaker 2: now threaten threatening primary challenges against Democrats in blue districts
Speaker 2: who you know, were not centrist enough for his liking,
Speaker 2: which you know, that's another story for another day, But
Speaker 2: I think that would probably go over as well in
Speaker 2: a Democratic primary as like a George Soros backed Republican candidate,
Speaker 2: it would go over in a Republican primary.
Speaker 1: But in any case, he's clearly willing to throw his
Speaker 1: weight around.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure he realizes how close to the sun
Speaker 2: he's flying in terms of, you know, usurping the power
Speaker 2: of the party from Trump. So that's the other question
Speaker 2: is how long that alliance between the two of them
Speaker 2: even lasts. Because Trump is certainly not one to brook
Speaker 2: any threat to his ego and unquestioned position as the
Speaker 2: king of the Republican Party, and then you do have
Speaker 2: genuine ideological fissures between them. I mean, Trump is not
Speaker 2: really that ideological guy. So I think when the talk
Speaker 2: is very theoretical of like who doesn't like the idea
Speaker 2: of cutting waste from the government, right, like and the
Speaker 2: government being efficient, Sure sounds great, right, But then when
Speaker 2: you're like, yeah, they cut out the funding for the
Speaker 2: kids with cancer and they cut out they're looking at
Speaker 2: cutting Social Security, like Elon's out there retweeting Mike Lee
Speaker 2: about how the whole program is a fraud. You know, yeah,
Speaker 2: when it comes down to what they actually you know
Speaker 2: what it means when you cut the government, not just
Speaker 2: theoretical like sure, let's get the waist down. Suddenly these
Speaker 2: projects become extremely unpopular, which is also part of what
Speaker 2: you're seeing in this dynamic of when people are actually
Speaker 2: looking at like, oh, well, what did you cut from
Speaker 2: this bill, and it's things that people would like to see,
Speaker 2: like research into pediatric cancer, then the feels a lot
Speaker 2: different than just in theory, let's spend less money. So
Speaker 2: when the rubber meets the road, there's a big ideological
Speaker 2: difference between Trump who doesn't really care either way, but
Speaker 2: has this instinct, of this political instinct of these things
Speaker 2: are not popular, like cutting these popular programs is not
Speaker 2: a good idea. And Elon Musk, who is more of
Speaker 2: an ideological like Javier Malay type ideological figure. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is someone who's praised. He prais Xavier Malay for
Speaker 2: rolling back terrorists, which again total contradiction to Trump and
Speaker 2: what he was claiming that he supports and when he's
Speaker 2: supported in the past, when he was in the White
Speaker 2: House before. So this is sort of like our first
Speaker 2: glimpse into some of those potential fissures as well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. And Trump notoriously loves drama. He said it
Speaker 4: as much that he likes it when people on his
Speaker 4: side are fighting it out because he thinks that's healthy
Speaker 4: and leads to a better outcome.
Speaker 3: Or maybe he just enjoys it, don't we all.
Speaker 4: But like there's there's maybe a Trump like enjoys the
Speaker 4: shadenfreude like everyone else does. But the Freedom Caucus, people
Speaker 4: like Tip Roy, their constituents want them to do this,
Speaker 4: and they recognize that. Ted Cruz recognized that that back
Speaker 4: in twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen, even earlier than that, at
Speaker 4: the beginning of the Tea Party. They have to answer
Speaker 4: to their constituents. Trump has to answer to the entire country.
Speaker 4: So that has always been what Paul Ryan tried to
Speaker 4: bridge the gap between. It's what Kevin McCarthy tried to
Speaker 4: bridge the gap between and Mike Johnson. You know is
Speaker 4: I don't even I don't even know what he's doing.
Speaker 4: I don't think anybody really even knows what he's doing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but Trump, that's it.
Speaker 4: Welcome back, Welcome back, is what they're all saying to
Speaker 4: him right now.
Speaker 2: Basically, yep, exactly exactly right. So we'll see what happens today.
Speaker 2: They're gonna allegedly take a vote on something that's very similar,
Speaker 2: will probably also go down in flames, and they'll be
Speaker 2: back to the drawing board, would be my prediction. But hey,
Speaker 2: you never know if they work something out amongst themselves
Speaker 2: and government. If there is no deal struck today, government
Speaker 2: will shut down at midnight to night. So we will
Speaker 2: certainly keep an eye on it for you, although all
Speaker 2: of us are going to be running around and traveling,
Speaker 2: so I don't know if we'll be able to update
Speaker 2: you or not, but maybe we'll try, depending on what happens.
Speaker 2: In any case, I hope you guys have a wonderful
Speaker 2: holiday and we will certainly. And thank you again Emily
Speaker 2: for spenty some time with us this morning and helping
Speaker 2: me understand what's going on from the Republican perspective as well,
Speaker 2: And we will see all of you guys soon