1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ zachera JJ 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: Zacher reson Hey guys, JJ, here with another rewind episode. 3 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: Many of you probably remember this, but last year there 4 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: was a controversial Dynasty trade that I did in one 5 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: of my leagues, and then I talked about that move 6 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: in a newsletter. That newsletter was then pushed to social 7 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,319 Speaker 1: media and on to Reddit, and people ended up talking 8 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: about it a whole lot more than some of my 9 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: other content, And honestly, it was a really fun conversation. 10 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,239 Speaker 1: I enjoyed people's takes, people disagreeing with me, people agreeing 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: with me. This is what fantasy football is all about, 12 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: and I think it's my job to, yes, give you 13 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: guys advice, but also make you think differently about this game. 14 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 1: But the response to that newsletter pushed me into an 15 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: episode on the gray area of fantasy football. It was 16 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: an episode that really came from the heart. As silly 17 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: as that sounds, I approached this game in a specific way. 18 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: This trade really opened me up to explain my thinking 19 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: in a more detailed manner, and that's what this episode 20 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: is really all about. Playing these rewind episodes back are 21 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: always really interesting to me because there's no hiding from takes. 22 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: They're all out there. 23 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: You can see exactly what I was thinking in that moment, 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: and you can see how right or wrong my forecasting was. 25 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: In this case, there are things where I feel great 26 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: about the process, but there are things where I'm surprised 27 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 1: at the result. Regardless, I think this is an evergreen 28 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: episode that we realistically should visit almost every single year. 29 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: It's an important part of my process and it's a 30 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: great way to wrap your head around how I think 31 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 1: about fantasy football. So, without further ado, here's the episode 32 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: on the gray area of fantasy football. Every once in 33 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: a while, I do episodes like this one where I 34 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: kind of just go I don't have the clearest goal 35 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: in mind when I put together my little show sheet, 36 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: but I know there's a general message that I'm trying 37 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: to get across, and today's message is the following. We 38 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: need to get away from this black and white thinking 39 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: that's rampant in fantasy football. Maybe it's hot take culture 40 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: taking over. Maybe it's the fact that clicks are more 41 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: important than more genuine content. Whatever the reason, the fantasy 42 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: football world seems to be losing the gray area, when 43 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: that's the opposite of what actually should be happening as 44 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: we mature with this game, As this game becomes more 45 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: and more popular and we become more and more interested 46 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: in it, you would think there'd be more recognition to 47 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,519 Speaker 1: the fact that variance is everywhere within it. Like I've 48 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: been around for a while now, I've been doing this 49 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: as my job for twelve years. At this point, I 50 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: sort of grew up in the fantasy football space, starting 51 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: when I was in my early twenties, childless, living in 52 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: an apartment with my girlfriend who's not my wife, thinking 53 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: I had the answers when I had none, And trust me, 54 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: I know that twelve years from now, I'll be looking 55 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: back at this exact moment, probably saying the exact same thing. 56 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,399 Speaker 1: But as I've watched the fantasy football space grow into 57 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: the awesome community that it's become, I've seen aspiring fantasy 58 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,959 Speaker 1: analysts pop up and gain popularity. And something that I've 59 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: noticed with those up and coming analysts is that the 60 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 1: first year when that analyst gains a significant platform, when 61 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: they're able to talk to thousands of people for the 62 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 1: first time, that first year is always full of insane confidence. 63 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: They fire takes out there like it's no one's business. 64 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: But that first year humbles you. Man. You realize that 65 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: when you start to put yourself out there, that means 66 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: you're putting yourself out there to be both right and wrong, 67 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: and when there's more pressure to be right, and when 68 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: you're then inevitably wrong, you realize on a much deeper 69 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: level that this game of fantasy football that all of 70 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: us love, it's impossible to bat a thousand, even if 71 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: everything seem to line up perfectly prior to the start 72 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: of the season. After that first year, you go from 73 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: having more black and white takes to realizing that this game, 74 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: it lives in the gray area. There's really no need 75 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: to say this absolutely will not happen scoring fantasy points 76 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: based on those bold outcomes. Instead, you start to add 77 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 1: words like probably and likely to your everyday vocabulary. Your 78 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: take goes from he's definitely gonna finish as a top 79 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: fantasy producer, too, he's probably gonna finish as a top 80 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: fantasy producer because you know that in this game anything 81 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: can happen. 82 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 2: Anything. 83 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: Now. I bring all this up because just a couple 84 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: of weeks ago, less than a couple of weeks ago, 85 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: I made a trade in one of my dynasty leagues. 86 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: It's one that's filled with other analysts. It's a fourteen teamer. 87 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: There are deep rosters. It's a league for sikos. But 88 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: in that league it's a super flex league. My roster's 89 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: loaded at wide receiver. It's fine enough at tight end. 90 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 1: The quarterbacks are iffy. The running backs are super iffy. Now, 91 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: to anyone who's listened or consumed my content over the 92 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: last week or so, you probably know where this is going. 93 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: I brought it up on Perspectives with Jeff Bell last week. 94 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: I wrote about it in my weekly newsletter, which, by 95 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: the way, totally free to subscribe over Late round dot com. 96 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: But going into that league's rookie draft, I had the 97 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: one oh six, where I'd planned to take Trayvon Henderson, 98 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,919 Speaker 1: a perfect addition to my roster. But I knew that 99 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 1: I wanted to bulk up at running back because this 100 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: draft class is filled with talented runners. 101 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 2: So I made the following move. 102 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,039 Speaker 1: I traded away Romadounza, and I received the eighth overall 103 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 1: pick in the rookie draft, the one oh eight. Now, 104 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: I'm a believer that you guys generally don't care about 105 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: my teams, but in this case, it's a slower part 106 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: of the football calendar. And honestly, the conversation around this 107 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,239 Speaker 1: trade has been so incredibly interesting to me. It found 108 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: its way to Reddit last week, and more people sided 109 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: against the one oh eight than for it, like by 110 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 1: a pretty healthy margin. And by the way, shout out 111 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: to Reddit. I really enjoyed the conversation that I have 112 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: on there for the most part. 113 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 2: Now. 114 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: Like I said, I also talked about this trade with 115 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: Jeff Bell last week on Perspectives, and naturally I received 116 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: some feedback. One comment on Spotify said, quote Romadunza might 117 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: be the most divisive dance JJ has ever taken. Another 118 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: comment said, come for rookie draft analysis, stay for a 119 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: half hour of Roma doonsay talk with an eye roll emoji. 120 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: They also spelled a dounday with an a. Then it 121 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: said good job with a note that they were being sarcastic. 122 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: Needless to say, that person is gonna hate today's episode now, 123 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 1: whether it's those comments in the podcast email, some comments 124 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: on Blue Sky or Twitter or on Reddit, the conversation 125 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: around this trade has really surprised me, not in a 126 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 1: bad way, just more in a really kind of way. 127 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: Like that comment about Roma Dunsay being the most divisive 128 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: stance I've ever taken. 129 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 2: Brother or sister. 130 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: If that's my most divisive take, then I'm not doing 131 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: a very good job of explaining myself in this podcast. 132 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: So let's take today and walk through this because I 133 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: think it's a situation that perfectly describes how I view 134 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: fantasy football. It's a scenario where you might have that 135 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: aha moment where you realize exactly what I'm trying to 136 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: say when I say this game has a lot of 137 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: variance and that you should be living in the gray area. 138 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 1: I'll make you realize that this is not a divisive 139 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: stance about Roma Dunza at all. In fact, I actually 140 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: like Romadunza. My thought process in trading a Dunza for 141 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: the one oweight, and I've stated this several times now, 142 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: but it was that at worst with that one O 143 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: eight pick, I was looking at a Mechagbuka. At worst, 144 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: at best, someone like Quinn Shawn Judkins would fall, which 145 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: gave me the perfect need for my team. Now, some 146 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: may say that's silly that I should never give up 147 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: on a player like a Dunza for a player like Agbuka. 148 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: Not only was a Dunza a better prospect, but Aguka 149 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: is buried on his depth chart in Tampa Bay. I'm 150 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: just delaying this exact same scenario happening next year, right 151 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: because as we know, a Dunesay competed with good pass 152 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: catchers in twenty twenty four, his situation was not that desirable. 153 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: But to me, there are a lot of assumptions being 154 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: baked into Romadunza's overall valuation, and the majority of those 155 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: assumptions are favorable ones. When I approach my own evaluation 156 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: of a player, my goal is not just look at 157 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: data that favors some narrative that I'm trying to drive home. 158 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: I want to see the pros and the cons. I 159 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: do the same thing with some of my more robust 160 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: fantasy football analysis too. As I'm writing it, as i'm 161 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: putting it together, I'm actively thinking, how can someone poke 162 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: a hole in this argument that I'm building here. 163 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 2: No player is. 164 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: Flawless, and if you approach a player assuming that he's flawless, 165 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: you're gonna have a hard time doing well in any 166 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: fantasy format, especially in dynasty. Now, for Roma Dunesday, the 167 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: current pros the good parts of his profile, or that 168 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: he was a good prospect. We can excuse some of 169 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 1: his underwhelming year one numbers when you give them offensive context, 170 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: and when you can bine some of those rookie season 171 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: numbers with his overall situation. There are some players who 172 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: he compares favorably to. One of them, for example, is 173 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins. That's something I wrote about extensively in the 174 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 1: Prospect guid. I even brought it up on the show 175 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: a few months ago. There's a path for Roma Dunza 176 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: to be at DeAndre Hopkins like wide receiver, even knowing 177 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: that I traded a Dunza away because there are cons 178 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: to his profile. Two, we can make excuses for his 179 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: rookie season numbers, and we should to some degree, But 180 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 1: his rookie season numbers were also pretty bad. Hit the 181 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: yards per out run rate of one point one eight 182 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: yards per out run is a pretty predictive metric, especially 183 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: for rookie wide receivers. In my year two model database, 184 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: there were over one hundred and fifty wide receivers who 185 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: ran fifty or more routes as rookies with first year 186 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: yards per rout run rates below one point three. So 187 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 1: that's a number that's a good bit higher than where 188 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: a Dunza is at. Just five of those wide outs 189 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: ended up giving fantasy managers a season of fifteen or 190 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: more PPR points per game and either year two or 191 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: year three, Yes, situationally things were not good. When people 192 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: heard or read about this tra they would say, but 193 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: don't you realize that he played in such a horrific situation. 194 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: Of course, you've got to at least give me the 195 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt here and know by now that 196 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: I'm not going to make decisions or think about players 197 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: without any sort of context. 198 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 2: But yeah, that's why we can explain some of this away. 199 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 2: But how much that's the real question. 200 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: A situation can't just cancel out everything that a Dunzay 201 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: did in year one, right, Like, we can't just assume 202 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: that season never happened. That wouldn't be a very fair 203 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 1: way to do analysis, because if we do that for 204 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: a Dounsa, wouldn't we then have to do that for 205 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: every other wide receiver who may have stepped into a 206 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: situation that wasn't ideal as a rookie. There are tons 207 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: of instances where that's been the case. Maybe they haven't 208 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: been identical to a Dunza's circumstances. But where do you 209 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 1: draw the line. Where do you draw the line and 210 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 1: say we don't have to worry about that rookie season whatsoever. 211 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: My point is that there's a mix here. We need 212 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: to recognize that his numbers were pretty poor, his peripheral 213 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: number were not great. Historically, wide receivers usually don't become 214 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: stars after that kind of rookie season. But we can 215 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: then also recognize that Caleb Williams had really bad accuracy 216 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 1: when he targeted a Dounzay, that he had tough competition, 217 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: that his coaching sucked. Like, trust me, guys, I get 218 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: all of that. I'm just saying that we can't let 219 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,839 Speaker 1: that overshadow the actual production that we know has some 220 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: predictive value, actually a lot of predictive value. What I'm 221 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: doing here is living in the gray area. I recognize 222 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: the range of outcomes for Roma Dunza. I fully see 223 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: a scenario where he's great. I also see a scenario 224 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: where he was just an overvalued prospect and it didn't 225 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: totally totally work out. 226 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 2: He didn't become a star. 227 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: I think it's healthy to see that this can go 228 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 1: in two very different directions. 229 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 2: Now, going back to that trade. 230 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: Remember, I was kind of hoping to get a running 231 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: back in that one ow eight spot, with like Buka 232 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: being sort of a word case scenario, but I also 233 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: had the flexibility to get like RJ. Harvey if I 234 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: wanted to. And for the record, Agbuka wasn't even the 235 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: player that I ended up getting. I moved up one 236 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: spot in the one oh seven and I got quinch 237 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 1: On Judkins, So this wasn't even in a Dunza for 238 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: Igbuka trade. But I do think strictly looking at Igbuka 239 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: is a really really interesting exercise, and it's one that 240 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 1: people who read my newsletter last week really ran with. 241 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: There's this idea out there that a mecha Agbuka is 242 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 1: just going to be in Roma Dunsay's situation next year. 243 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 1: That how we view at Dunza right now, That's how 244 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: we're gonna view Agbuka, which I understand the logic, good prospect, 245 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: but in a crowded situation in year one leads to 246 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: less opportunity, which leads the worst fantasy production, which leads 247 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: to us questioning Agbuka's true long term. 248 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 2: Viability at least to some degree. 249 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 1: And I think the general consensus liked a Dounsay as 250 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: a prospect more. 251 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 2: Than Agbuka, so Igbuka will get. 252 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: Even less of a benefit of a doubt compared to 253 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: Adunza right now. But when we focus on that soul comparison, 254 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: we're losing sight of the various outcomes that could really 255 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 1: occur here. For one, what if Abuca does have some 256 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,199 Speaker 1: sort of down year production wise, like from a points 257 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: per game perspective, but his peripherals are really strong. You 258 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: don't think fantasy analysts are going to tout him into 259 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: year two. You don't think that's going to raise his 260 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: overall value in dynasty. Or what if the Buccaneers really 261 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: do let Mike Evans walk next year? Or what if 262 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: Chris Godwin doesn't get back to his old self after 263 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: sustaining a really gruesome injury last season. Now, of course 264 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 1: there's an out here where Agbuka's back with a healthy 265 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: Evans and a healthy Godwin in twenty twenty six, and 266 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: that could cap his upside for yet another season. But 267 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: is that not kind of what's happening with Roma Dunesay 268 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: right now, at least to some degree. I mean, it's 269 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 1: not an apples to apples comparison But something that just 270 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 1: keeps getting lost in this discussion with a Donsay is 271 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 1: the fact that this new Bears coaching staff used their 272 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: first two picks in this year's draft on pass catchers. 273 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: They got Colston Lovelin and Luther Burden. Is it not 274 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:08,719 Speaker 1: possible that Romadunsay actually has tougher competition this year than 275 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 1: he had last year. I mean, he was playing alongside 276 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: Keenan Allen last year. Allan still hasn't signed with a team. 277 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: He's thirty three years old, inching towards the end of 278 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: his career. That's the thing when I see people tell 279 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: me that Agbuka is just going to be the twenty 280 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: twenty sixth version of Romadoonsay, that he'll be right in 281 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: this spot that a Dounza's in right now, I just 282 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: don't see how we're so confident and that one singular outcome. 283 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: I don't see why we're thinking about this in such 284 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: a binary, black and white way. You mean to tell 285 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: me that it's likely that it's probable that we see, 286 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: at mechag Buka have a bad season on the peripherals front, 287 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: that his yards per out run will be well below 288 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 1: average for a star wide receiver, and then we watch 289 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: his team, the Buccaneers, draft pass catchers with their first 290 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: two round picks. 291 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 2: That's probable. 292 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: The reason, if not a huge chunk of the reason 293 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: that Romadunza is less attractive today than he was a 294 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: month ago, is because more competition was added to that team, 295 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: and yet we really haven't seen his overall price tag 296 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: change that much. Over on keep trade cut A, Dunze 297 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: is still the wide receiver twenty in Dynasty now one 298 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 1: common pushback and I saw this so many times. But 299 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: something that people kept telling me is well, what about 300 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigba? Because as we know, Jaysn was 301 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: drafted in round one, he had really tough competition on 302 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: his team at wide receiver, and then he had a 303 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: pretty poor rookie season. It's a whole lot like the 304 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: Roma Dunday situation, and it's a whole lot like a 305 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: mechag Buka. I've even made that comparison with Agbuka. But 306 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: when we look at Jackson Smith and Jigba as the 307 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: sole comparison, we're losing sight of the greater picture. Yes, guys, 308 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 1: there's a scenario where Romadunza sees a rise like JASN 309 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: did last year. That's in his range of outcomes. Remember, 310 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: I've comped a Dounsay to DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. But 311 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 1: not only did the ZAP model just like JSN more 312 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: as a prospect, but the Seahawks didn't go out and 313 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: draft a tight end tenth overall and a wide receiver 314 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: thirty ninth overall the following season. And not only that, 315 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: and this is most important, but JSN didn't have the 316 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: same type of value in the dynasty market the following 317 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 1: season after his rookie year. I just told you that 318 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: Roma Dunsay is the wide receiver twenty over on keep 319 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 1: trade cut, despite a down rookie season, despite his team 320 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: drafting two pass catchers with their first two picks. Despite 321 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: all of that, he's still the wide receiver twenty. He 322 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: dropped his five wide receiver spots since the NFL Draft 323 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: ended last year. At this time, Jackson Smith and Jigbo 324 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: was the wide receiver twenty five. According to Dynasty League 325 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: Football's ADP, he was the wide receiver thirty five, And 326 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: there was a point in the summer on keep trade 327 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: cut last year where JSM was closer to hyde receiver thirty. 328 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: To me, that's signaling that the Dynasty market is making 329 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: more excuses for Romadunza than it was Jackson Smith and Jigba, 330 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: because keep in mind JSN had arguably better peripherals in 331 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: year one than Romadunza had, and his team didn't go 332 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 1: out and draft a tight end and wide receiver with 333 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: two top fifty picks in the draft. And Yeah, clearly 334 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: the Ben Johnson effect. That's what's happening here too. In fact, 335 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: i'd argue that's the main reason a lot of this 336 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: is happening, and I'm not dismissing that. What I'm trying 337 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: to focus on here is the fact that this really 338 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 1: centers around cost and how the dynasty market is reacting 339 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 1: to things, and to me, the market isn't reacting enough 340 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: to some of those things. Typically with players like this 341 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: and situations like this, we see a little bit more 342 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,479 Speaker 1: of a drop. Everything in fantasy football comes down to price. 343 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: I'll draft anyone at the right price, I'll trade for 344 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: anyone at the right price. Like I'm sure a lot 345 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 1: of you have some sort of dream car. I'm not 346 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: a car person. I don't really have that. I know 347 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: a lot of you do. What's stopping you from getting 348 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: that dream car. Resources. You only have so much money 349 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: to spend and you need to allocate that money appropriately. 350 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: You're not Jeff Bezos, or at least I don't think 351 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos listens to the Late Round podcast. I would 352 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: love to have kept Romadunze, but that's not how fantasy 353 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 1: football works. And to me, there's a point right now 354 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: where playing probability with Romadunze does make sense, where I 355 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: can flip him for a similar cost that I bought 356 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 1: him for, despite the fact that he received more youthful competition, 357 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: and despite the fact that he did have an underwhelming 358 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: rookie season, and in turn, my worst case scenario is 359 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: basically putting me right back to where Romadunze is this 360 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: year because a Mechagbuca was that worst case scenario. And yeah, 361 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: I'd have to wait another year to be in this position, 362 00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: and time is money, time is valuable, But also that's 363 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: more of a worst case scenario. There's a better scenario 364 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: here where Agbuka has better peripherals than Romadunze, whereas competition 365 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 1: is weaker in year two than what we're seeing right 366 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: now with Adunesay, where his team doesn't go out and 367 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,880 Speaker 1: add more pass catchers. Maybe framing this another way will 368 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: really help. We know that in dynasty, managers don't have forever. 369 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: They're not the most patient people in the world, nor 370 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 1: should they be. You can't wait around for players to 371 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 1: develop because as each year passes, and if that player 372 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,879 Speaker 1: is not getting any better, you know, the odds of 373 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: him actually being a stud get exponentially worse. So let 374 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: me ask the question that I asked Jeff last week. 375 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: Where would Romadunza have to rank this season in fantasy football? 376 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: What kind of points per game output would he need 377 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: to see in order to gain value in dynasty year 378 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: over year. That's the question that seems to never get answered. 379 00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: What kind of production are you expecting a Donzay to day? 380 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: Not a mechanic Buca, but a Doonsay? Because I can 381 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: tell you this, My projections right now have Roma Dunza 382 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 1: at wide receiver thirty six. Most rankings have him around 383 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: there too. Mike Clay's projections the gold standard in the 384 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 1: fantasy space. His projections have a Dunday at wide receiver 385 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: thirty nine. That's a huge discrepancy between dynasty valuation and 386 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 1: season long valuation, and what those projections tell us is 387 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: the most likely median outcome. That median outcome for a 388 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,479 Speaker 1: Dounza is a fringe wide receiver three season. And if 389 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: a Dunsa hits a fringe wide receiver three season, what 390 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: do you think is going to happen to his dynasty value? 391 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 1: That's then two seasons of underwhelming production, of non super 392 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 1: usable production. Dynasty managers are not going to buy into that. 393 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: So while you can sit here and say that a 394 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 1: Mecha Buca's most likely outcome would be placing him in 395 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: a spot that's similar to roma Dunze this year, what 396 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: about a Dounsay's most likely outcome? You can't ignore that 397 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 1: when talking about a trade like this. You know, the 398 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: funny thing with all of this is that a Dunza 399 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: has a very very real shot to be someone I'm 400 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: aggressively targeting the season in redraft leagues because the price 401 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: is different. Cost is everything. Spending a wide receiver three 402 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: to wide receiver four pick and redraft on a young 403 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: and talented wide receiver who's getting the offensive scheme upgrade 404 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 1: and who does have an interesting ceiling. I'm gonna ignore 405 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: the floor case there. 406 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,120 Speaker 2: All day long. 407 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 1: Give me the ceiling. That's all I care about. Dynasty 408 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: doesn't always work that way depending on your roster. My 409 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,639 Speaker 1: roster was one where I wasn't in the business of 410 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: having a highly volatile asset, which is what I think 411 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: we've established. Roma Dunza is there's a high ceiling, but 412 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 1: if he doesn't produce this year, there's also a very 413 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:54,679 Speaker 1: scary floor. 414 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 2: I had an out. 415 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: I had an opportunity to get an asset, a running 416 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 1: back asset who had a narrow range of outcomes, and 417 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: it would help my team more in the immediate. 418 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 2: Future for that team to compete now. So I made 419 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 2: the move. 420 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: And look, guys, not every trade you do has to 421 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: be lopsided, Like I think a Dounday for the one 422 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 1: oweight is just a fair trade on paper. That's why 423 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: I proposed it in the first place. I don't mess around. 424 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: I don't think there's a situation where it's like, give 425 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: me the one O eight side ninety five percent of 426 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: the time. Again, because I like to live in the 427 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: gray area. People see this trade and they see I 428 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 1: made an action. They assume because I made that action 429 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 1: that I think that Romadunsay is bad, or that you 430 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 1: should trade. 431 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 2: Him, or that he's some obvious cell candidate. 432 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: I mean, just read that comment about this being the 433 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 1: most divisive stance that I've ever taken. That couldn't be 434 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: further from the truth. My stance on a doonsday is 435 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: actually relatively neutral. I'm just recognizing that this could go 436 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: in many different directions. I'm recognizing that fantasy football is 437 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 1: in some black and white game, and you know what, 438 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: we may look back at this episode a year from 439 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: now and Romadunze might be the wide receiver seven in Dynasty. 440 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 1: He might have blown up in twenty twenty five, and 441 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 1: inevitably someone's gonna come after me, call me a moron, 442 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: and call me a loser. But guess what, that's a 443 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:26,199 Speaker 1: result that happened among many that could have happened. In 444 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 1: that case, the ninety ninth percentile outcome would hit. And yeah, 445 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: that would suck for that one singular Dynasty roster where 446 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: I made that move. It sucks when that kind of 447 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,679 Speaker 1: thing happens. I've made deals in the past where I 448 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: traded a player who in my mind had a very 449 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 1: low probability of hitting, and then that player hit and 450 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: you look back and you say, man, this roster would 451 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 1: have been so much better had I not made that move. 452 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,199 Speaker 1: But when you made that move, you were simply playing probability. 453 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: You were looking at range of outcomes. You were living 454 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 1: in the gray area. That outcome is just sometimes what 455 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: happens in fantasy football. That's not the only action you're 456 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 1: ever going to take in this game. If your process 457 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,719 Speaker 1: is sound, which I think this process is sound, then 458 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: you'll win out in the long run across all of 459 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: your actions. You know, the main reason you don't hear 460 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: me sit on this podcast or go on social media 461 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,199 Speaker 1: victory lapping my hits is because of this. When an 462 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: analyst hits on some probability driven outcome, they're not totally 463 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 1: hitting on that prediction. One of my bigger wins from 464 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: a prospecting standpoint over the last five seasons or so 465 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 1: was with Isaiah Pichecko. 466 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 2: I was telling. 467 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 1: Readers and listeners to take him in their rookie drafts 468 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: that year. I sent a tweet when the Chiefs drafted 469 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: him that Pachecko was coming for Clyde Edwards Alaire's job. 470 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 2: I was half joking, but it was still crazy to 471 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 2: say at the time. 472 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: But if I actually nailed that prediction, I would have 473 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: ranked Pachecko as a first round rookie pick. 474 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 2: I wouldn't have said, hey, get him in round four as. 475 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 1: An afterthought, because no one else wants this guy, and 476 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 1: I think there's at least a chance that he hits, 477 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: because whether we see it or not, we inherently are 478 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: looking at this game through a lens of probability. It 479 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: would have been idiotic for me to take a late 480 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: day three running back as a first rounder in rookie 481 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:20,199 Speaker 1: drafts because late day three picks rarely pan out, and 482 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: there were plenty of holes to Pacheco's profile. It just 483 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: so happened that the higher end of his range of 484 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 1: outcomes ended up hitting, and it's fun to celebrate when 485 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: those things happen. Why play fantasy football if you can't 486 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: have fun when these situations go down. There's just no 487 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: need to be obnoxious about it, to say, look at me, 488 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: I got this right because I'm a genius. Because there 489 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 1: were so many different possible outcomes for a player like 490 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,479 Speaker 1: Isaiah Pachecko, there were so many ways for you to 491 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: not look like a genius. It's like when people sit 492 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: there and they say, told y'all when they're talking about 493 00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 1: Pukinnakua no, you didn't. You absolutely did not tell people 494 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 1: that Puka Nakua would be one of the best rookie 495 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 1: wide receivers of all time. I liked Nikua too, he 496 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: was a late round dart throw in my draft guide 497 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: that year. But I wasn't sitting here saying that he 498 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 1: would give us wide receiver one production. 499 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 2: That's insane. 500 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: And just like there were a lot of outcomes for 501 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,719 Speaker 1: Nicua and Pacheco, there are a lot of different outcomes 502 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 1: for Romadonsay, some of those outcomes will make me target 503 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 1: him in some leagues, while some of those outcomes will 504 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 1: make me want to trade him away. Because fantasy football 505 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: it's a game about probability, and since it's a game 506 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 1: about probability, you need to live in the gray area.