WEBVTT - Blitz: corporate profits will pick up

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg even to Washington, d

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<v Speaker 1>C Bloomberg to Boston Bloomberg twelve hundreds, to San Francisco

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg nine to the Country Sues Exam Channel one nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aben Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good Friday morning. It

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<v Speaker 1>is eight thirty on Wall Street and Michael McKee along

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<v Speaker 1>with Tom Keane. Economic Indicators are brought to you by

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<v Speaker 1>Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to change the conversation,

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the broker dealer r I A that's ready

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<v Speaker 1>to listen. Call eight six two is a Commonwealth dot

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<v Speaker 1>com to learn more no economic indicators at A thirty

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. Coming up at the top of the hour,

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<v Speaker 1>Bill Dudley, the New York Fed chief, is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be speaking opening remarks at a conference on banking Supervisions

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<v Speaker 1>are not sure boring policy stuff at the University of

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<v Speaker 1>Michigan's preliminary sentiment indicators at ten o'clock expected to rise

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. That'll be interesting to see if that

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<v Speaker 1>indeed happens. Now, we just did have as long as

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<v Speaker 1>we did the you know, the Justin Trudeau yesterday interview,

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<v Speaker 1>will give the Canada CPI numbers. UH. Inflation there cools

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit at one point four percent year on

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<v Speaker 1>year price increase in February versus the one and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent forecast. So now you're up to date on

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<v Speaker 1>economic indicators in North America. UH. Steve Bletz is the

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<v Speaker 1>chief economist at I T G Investment Research. Steve, the

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<v Speaker 1>Canada numbers aren't necessarily relevant for the United States affected

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<v Speaker 1>as they are so much by energy, but um, we

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<v Speaker 1>are seeing a rise in core prices here in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>and Janet Yellen during her news conference this week sort

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<v Speaker 1>of dismissed that as no big deal transitory. Do you agree,

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<v Speaker 1>are we going to see inflation like Canada start to

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<v Speaker 1>go down again? Um? Improb Blake. I mean, I think

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<v Speaker 1>when you look at the gap between where the economy

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<v Speaker 1>is in trend growth and the fact that it's still

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<v Speaker 1>very very wide UM, and the fact that you have

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<v Speaker 1>real tenure yields still trolling around the fifty basis point level,

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<v Speaker 1>it's very hard to make the case that you have

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<v Speaker 1>a traditional kind of a inflation going on where you're

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<v Speaker 1>really getting bits of capital a lot of borrowing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of leverage spending on either the household or the

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<v Speaker 1>or the corporate side that would ultimately drive up inflation.

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<v Speaker 1>So I suspect that she's more correct than not. She

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<v Speaker 1>also said in a press conference, though, that, uh, these

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<v Speaker 1>numbers tend to swing around a lot, and they accepted

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<v Speaker 1>undershooting for a while, and they'd be more than happy

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<v Speaker 1>to accept some overshooting for a while as well. You

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<v Speaker 1>think that's what they're getting at with their plans to

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<v Speaker 1>slow down the rate of rate increases, that they are

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<v Speaker 1>going to just sort of look look other way as

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<v Speaker 1>inflation rises. I think that's that's a good big part

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<v Speaker 1>of it. Yes, I would, I would agree with that,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think she also uh understands that. Look, they eased, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and what they did was put in a trajectory of

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<v Speaker 1>policy that I think is much more in line with

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<v Speaker 1>where the real economy is. Uh. You know, everyone focuses

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<v Speaker 1>on the spot, right, what are they going to do

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<v Speaker 1>with the overnight funds rate? But if you go back

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<v Speaker 1>to the last year and a half two years and

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<v Speaker 1>you track the forward federal funds rates in the market,

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<v Speaker 1>and then everything in the treasury curve just gets priced

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<v Speaker 1>off of that as you go out to ten years,

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<v Speaker 1>the FED went way too high in their real rates

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<v Speaker 1>and the economy did what it should do, what it

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<v Speaker 1>normally would do. The economy slowed, the equity market underperformed. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>They reverse that in terms of their forward guidance, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that they have a much more realistic uh

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<v Speaker 1>projection of getting to sort of a D five basis

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<v Speaker 1>points or whatever it is by the end of this year.

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<v Speaker 1>We're listed in terms of what is truly neutral for

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<v Speaker 1>the economy that we really have, Steve, I t G. Steve.

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<v Speaker 1>When I when I think about getting over the weekend

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<v Speaker 1>next week, it gets me to the end of the

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<v Speaker 1>quarter right now. Link this blot economy with then forget

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<v Speaker 1>about the headlines of Wall Street being very slow, where

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<v Speaker 1>their revenues and profits are going to be given low

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<v Speaker 1>nominal GDP, I mean, is the great mystery for the

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<v Speaker 1>year that's a single digit world. Finally for corporations, Uh, no,

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<v Speaker 1>you're right. Um. I think though that the corporate growth

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<v Speaker 1>and profits probably does pick up a little bit in

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<v Speaker 1>the second quarter. Uh. And certainly this the week of

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<v Speaker 1>Donald will help a little bit in that way on

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<v Speaker 1>the translation. But look of the US economy is in

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<v Speaker 1>the tradeable goods sector, and you can't escape the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that if the rest of the world is growing more slowly,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to natively impact growth here. It's not a

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<v Speaker 1>equation that the three of us grew up understanding intuitively,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's where we are. And it's very difficult, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, there's a certain very domestic oriented businesses. Obviously

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<v Speaker 1>that a little bit different, but it's very difficult to

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<v Speaker 1>get strong corporate profit growth for US firms when so

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<v Speaker 1>much of the world is part of the U S economy.

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<v Speaker 1>In the minute we have left, give us your outlook

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<v Speaker 1>after this week of central banks acting around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>You feel better about the prospects for global growth or neutral?

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<v Speaker 1>Feeling worse? What? Well, I don't feel worse. Um. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that well, first of all, I think that the

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<v Speaker 1>FED finally in my from my perspective, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>FED finally locked into a fund orate trajectory that makes sense,

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<v Speaker 1>and they certainly no harm. Uh, they'll go in in June. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>The key to the US is simply holding up the

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<v Speaker 1>equity market because, as they wrote, the consumer sector and

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<v Speaker 1>housing is most important, and we know that the continued

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<v Speaker 1>employment is one part of it, and the asset value

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<v Speaker 1>of the equity market is the other part of it.

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<v Speaker 1>So I've been at the two percent to two and

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<v Speaker 1>a half percent, more like two for the to the

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<v Speaker 1>year that housing is the driver for growth this year.

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<v Speaker 1>And uh, nothing's really changed to dissuade that the issues

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<v Speaker 1>globally are just bigger than negative rates are gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>able to fix. See. Let's thank you so much, greatly

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate it with I T. G UH this morning after

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<v Speaker 1>a really interesting week. I really can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 1>our global economic team Marty Schenker in Washington leading our

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<v Speaker 1>economic and government coverage worldwide. It has been truly a

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<v Speaker 1>worldwide week as well. Part of that current seas early

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<v Speaker 1>this morning and even yesterday early morning, yen with massive strength.

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<v Speaker 1>We had a one time ten handle. Right now one

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<v Speaker 1>eleven fifty two. Currencies have given up some of the

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<v Speaker 1>tension seen two three hours ago. Let's check in with

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<v Speaker 1>Michael bar now again the latest world in national headlines,

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Tom, thank you very much. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders

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<v Speaker 1>says Hillary Clinton is still beatable for the Democratic presidential nomination.

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<v Speaker 1>Sanders says in several Western states and it offers him

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<v Speaker 1>a chance to catch up. Clinton holds a lead of

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<v Speaker 1>more than three committed delegates, but Sanders rejects the notion

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<v Speaker 1>that she's got it all but sewn up. European Union

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<v Speaker 1>leaders are meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmedabu Toglu in

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<v Speaker 1>Brussels today. He was negotiating with Turkey to accept thousands

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<v Speaker 1>of refugees in exchange for aid money and faster EU

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<v Speaker 1>membership consideration. The prime ministers says the refugee crisis is

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<v Speaker 1>not something to bargain over for Turkey. RAF issues nuts,

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<v Speaker 1>any show erna, any show value? Oh many tell you

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<v Speaker 1>in velure says about it's unitan Velus. North Korea has

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<v Speaker 1>launched a missile into the sea as it continues to

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<v Speaker 1>condemn any ongoing annual military exercise conducted by South Korea

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<v Speaker 1>and the US. South Korean military expert says the Young

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<v Speaker 1>Yang may have been testing a reentry vehicle that could

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<v Speaker 1>house a nuclear payload. The test violated multiple U n

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<v Speaker 1>Security Council resolutions. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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<v Speaker 1>powered by our twenty four hundred journalists more than one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world, I'm micha Lubar,

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Tom, Thank you mich All time now for the

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<v Speaker 1>Great Contino Auto Group Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with John

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<v Speaker 1>stesshen My typical first day of the n C Double

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<v Speaker 1>A Tournament to twelve Seeds beat five seeds to eleven

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<v Speaker 1>Seeds beat six is. One game went double overtime, another

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<v Speaker 1>one with a second to go, Providence on a lay

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<v Speaker 1>up top USC seventy to sixty nine. That double overtime

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<v Speaker 1>game was arc and saw Little Rock, who trailed by

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<v Speaker 1>fourteen late regulation, ended up beating Predue eight five eight three.

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<v Speaker 1>The other twelve seed. The wain was Yale, its first

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<v Speaker 1>n C Double A games as nineteen sixty two seventy

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<v Speaker 1>nine seventy five over Baylor Mackay Mason thirty one points.

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<v Speaker 1>Fourth time in seven years the IVY League champ has

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<v Speaker 1>won it's n C Double A opener Yale versus Duke Tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 1>Six seed Seaton Hall, coming off to one of the

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<v Speaker 1>Big East tournaments, struggled lost again zagat eight fifty two.

0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.960
<v Speaker 1>Rough night for Private star Isaiah White had only ten

0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:33.560
<v Speaker 1>points on four of twenty four shooting. He was oh

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<v Speaker 1>for ten on three pointers. The other six seed delude

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<v Speaker 1>was Arizona meeting, by which to State sixty five to

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five. Iona was ousted in by Iowa State ninety

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<v Speaker 1>four eighty one. Last game for Gale Star a J English,

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<v Speaker 1>he scored twenty eight Stony Ruffs first n C double

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<v Speaker 1>a game ever eight five fifty seven lost to Kentucky.

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<v Speaker 1>Yukon won the tournament two years ago. Huskies are on

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<v Speaker 1>another postseason run. Just took the A A C Tourney.

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<v Speaker 1>They opened up the n C double as with the

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<v Speaker 1>Big I can have seventy four sixty seven over in Colorado.

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<v Speaker 1>Sixteen more games today and tonight they'll be four played

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<v Speaker 1>in Brooklyn in Chicago the net for the night eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>and a half. They lost the Bowl one oh two

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<v Speaker 1>in l A. The Rangers that three won the third period,

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<v Speaker 1>The Kings came back and J Coopitar tied the game

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<v Speaker 1>and then wanted in overtime for three of the Islanders

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<v Speaker 1>failed to take advantage, beating by Nashville four two. The

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<v Speaker 1>Devil's erupted scored three times in the first and second periods.

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<v Speaker 1>They won seven four over Minnesota. With Bloomberg NBC Sports Update,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm John Stay John. Thanks so much, greatly appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't forget a modest talk of a modest storm Sunday

0:10:36.880 --> 0:10:40.760
<v Speaker 1>across the Northeast, rubbed Caroline giving us perspective. Are we

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<v Speaker 1>hope to do that as we moved through the morning

0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:49.840
<v Speaker 1>as well, Michael McKee and Tom Keane, your discussion on economics, finance, investment,

0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:53.319
<v Speaker 1>international relations. We will not talk about my n C

0:10:53.520 --> 0:11:01.120
<v Speaker 1>double a bracket moments. Silence for that right now. The

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