Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg even to Washington, d
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Speaker 1: is eight thirty on Wall Street and Michael McKee along
Speaker 1: with Tom Keane. Economic Indicators are brought to you by
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Speaker 1: com to learn more no economic indicators at A thirty
Speaker 1: this morning. Coming up at the top of the hour,
Speaker 1: Bill Dudley, the New York Fed chief, is going to
Speaker 1: be speaking opening remarks at a conference on banking Supervisions
Speaker 1: are not sure boring policy stuff at the University of
Speaker 1: Michigan's preliminary sentiment indicators at ten o'clock expected to rise
Speaker 1: a little bit. That'll be interesting to see if that
Speaker 1: indeed happens. Now, we just did have as long as
Speaker 1: we did the you know, the Justin Trudeau yesterday interview,
Speaker 1: will give the Canada CPI numbers. UH. Inflation there cools
Speaker 1: a little bit at one point four percent year on
Speaker 1: year price increase in February versus the one and a
Speaker 1: half percent forecast. So now you're up to date on
Speaker 1: economic indicators in North America. UH. Steve Bletz is the
Speaker 1: chief economist at I T G Investment Research. Steve, the
Speaker 1: Canada numbers aren't necessarily relevant for the United States affected
Speaker 1: as they are so much by energy, but um, we
Speaker 1: are seeing a rise in core prices here in the US,
Speaker 1: and Janet Yellen during her news conference this week sort
Speaker 1: of dismissed that as no big deal transitory. Do you agree,
Speaker 1: are we going to see inflation like Canada start to
Speaker 1: go down again? Um? Improb Blake. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: when you look at the gap between where the economy
Speaker 1: is in trend growth and the fact that it's still
Speaker 1: very very wide UM, and the fact that you have
Speaker 1: real tenure yields still trolling around the fifty basis point level,
Speaker 1: it's very hard to make the case that you have
Speaker 1: a traditional kind of a inflation going on where you're
Speaker 1: really getting bits of capital a lot of borrowing a
Speaker 1: lot of leverage spending on either the household or the
Speaker 1: or the corporate side that would ultimately drive up inflation.
Speaker 1: So I suspect that she's more correct than not. She
Speaker 1: also said in a press conference, though, that, uh, these
Speaker 1: numbers tend to swing around a lot, and they accepted
Speaker 1: undershooting for a while, and they'd be more than happy
Speaker 1: to accept some overshooting for a while as well. You
Speaker 1: think that's what they're getting at with their plans to
Speaker 1: slow down the rate of rate increases, that they are
Speaker 1: going to just sort of look look other way as
Speaker 1: inflation rises. I think that's that's a good big part
Speaker 1: of it. Yes, I would, I would agree with that,
Speaker 1: and I think she also uh understands that. Look, they eased, right,
Speaker 1: and what they did was put in a trajectory of
Speaker 1: policy that I think is much more in line with
Speaker 1: where the real economy is. Uh. You know, everyone focuses
Speaker 1: on the spot, right, what are they going to do
Speaker 1: with the overnight funds rate? But if you go back
Speaker 1: to the last year and a half two years and
Speaker 1: you track the forward federal funds rates in the market,
Speaker 1: and then everything in the treasury curve just gets priced
Speaker 1: off of that as you go out to ten years,
Speaker 1: the FED went way too high in their real rates
Speaker 1: and the economy did what it should do, what it
Speaker 1: normally would do. The economy slowed, the equity market underperformed. Uh.
Speaker 1: They reverse that in terms of their forward guidance, and
Speaker 1: I think that they have a much more realistic uh
Speaker 1: projection of getting to sort of a D five basis
Speaker 1: points or whatever it is by the end of this year.
Speaker 1: We're listed in terms of what is truly neutral for
Speaker 1: the economy that we really have, Steve, I t G. Steve.
Speaker 1: When I when I think about getting over the weekend
Speaker 1: next week, it gets me to the end of the
Speaker 1: quarter right now. Link this blot economy with then forget
Speaker 1: about the headlines of Wall Street being very slow, where
Speaker 1: their revenues and profits are going to be given low
Speaker 1: nominal GDP, I mean, is the great mystery for the
Speaker 1: year that's a single digit world. Finally for corporations, Uh, no,
Speaker 1: you're right. Um. I think though that the corporate growth
Speaker 1: and profits probably does pick up a little bit in
Speaker 1: the second quarter. Uh. And certainly this the week of
Speaker 1: Donald will help a little bit in that way on
Speaker 1: the translation. But look of the US economy is in
Speaker 1: the tradeable goods sector, and you can't escape the fact
Speaker 1: that if the rest of the world is growing more slowly,
Speaker 1: it's going to natively impact growth here. It's not a
Speaker 1: equation that the three of us grew up understanding intuitively,
Speaker 1: but that's where we are. And it's very difficult, you know.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a certain very domestic oriented businesses. Obviously
Speaker 1: that a little bit different, but it's very difficult to
Speaker 1: get strong corporate profit growth for US firms when so
Speaker 1: much of the world is part of the U S economy.
Speaker 1: In the minute we have left, give us your outlook
Speaker 1: after this week of central banks acting around the world.
Speaker 1: You feel better about the prospects for global growth or neutral?
Speaker 1: Feeling worse? What? Well, I don't feel worse. Um. I
Speaker 1: think that well, first of all, I think that the
Speaker 1: FED finally in my from my perspective, I think the
Speaker 1: FED finally locked into a fund orate trajectory that makes sense,
Speaker 1: and they certainly no harm. Uh, they'll go in in June. Um.
Speaker 1: The key to the US is simply holding up the
Speaker 1: equity market because, as they wrote, the consumer sector and
Speaker 1: housing is most important, and we know that the continued
Speaker 1: employment is one part of it, and the asset value
Speaker 1: of the equity market is the other part of it.
Speaker 1: So I've been at the two percent to two and
Speaker 1: a half percent, more like two for the to the
Speaker 1: year that housing is the driver for growth this year.
Speaker 1: And uh, nothing's really changed to dissuade that the issues
Speaker 1: globally are just bigger than negative rates are gonna be
Speaker 1: able to fix. See. Let's thank you so much, greatly
Speaker 1: appreciate it with I T. G UH this morning after
Speaker 1: a really interesting week. I really can't say enough about
Speaker 1: our global economic team Marty Schenker in Washington leading our
Speaker 1: economic and government coverage worldwide. It has been truly a
Speaker 1: worldwide week as well. Part of that current seas early
Speaker 1: this morning and even yesterday early morning, yen with massive strength.
Speaker 1: We had a one time ten handle. Right now one
Speaker 1: eleven fifty two. Currencies have given up some of the
Speaker 1: tension seen two three hours ago. Let's check in with
Speaker 1: Michael bar now again the latest world in national headlines,
Speaker 1: Mike Tom, thank you very much. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders
Speaker 1: says Hillary Clinton is still beatable for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Speaker 1: Sanders says in several Western states and it offers him
Speaker 1: a chance to catch up. Clinton holds a lead of
Speaker 1: more than three committed delegates, but Sanders rejects the notion
Speaker 1: that she's got it all but sewn up. European Union
Speaker 1: leaders are meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmedabu Toglu in
Speaker 1: Brussels today. He was negotiating with Turkey to accept thousands
Speaker 1: of refugees in exchange for aid money and faster EU
Speaker 1: membership consideration. The prime ministers says the refugee crisis is
Speaker 1: not something to bargain over for Turkey. RAF issues nuts,
Speaker 1: any show erna, any show value? Oh many tell you
Speaker 1: in velure says about it's unitan Velus. North Korea has
Speaker 1: launched a missile into the sea as it continues to
Speaker 1: condemn any ongoing annual military exercise conducted by South Korea
Speaker 1: and the US. South Korean military expert says the Young
Speaker 1: Yang may have been testing a reentry vehicle that could
Speaker 1: house a nuclear payload. The test violated multiple U n
Speaker 1: Security Council resolutions. Global News twenty four hours a day,
Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists more than one
Speaker 1: hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world, I'm micha Lubar,
Speaker 1: Mike Tom, Thank you mich All time now for the
Speaker 1: Great Contino Auto Group Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with John
Speaker 1: stesshen My typical first day of the n C Double
Speaker 1: A Tournament to twelve Seeds beat five seeds to eleven
Speaker 1: Seeds beat six is. One game went double overtime, another
Speaker 1: one with a second to go, Providence on a lay
Speaker 1: up top USC seventy to sixty nine. That double overtime
Speaker 1: game was arc and saw Little Rock, who trailed by
Speaker 1: fourteen late regulation, ended up beating Predue eight five eight three.
Speaker 1: The other twelve seed. The wain was Yale, its first
Speaker 1: n C Double A games as nineteen sixty two seventy
Speaker 1: nine seventy five over Baylor Mackay Mason thirty one points.
Speaker 1: Fourth time in seven years the IVY League champ has
Speaker 1: won it's n C Double A opener Yale versus Duke Tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Six seed Seaton Hall, coming off to one of the
Speaker 1: Big East tournaments, struggled lost again zagat eight fifty two.
Speaker 1: Rough night for Private star Isaiah White had only ten
Speaker 1: points on four of twenty four shooting. He was oh
Speaker 1: for ten on three pointers. The other six seed delude
Speaker 1: was Arizona meeting, by which to State sixty five to
Speaker 1: fifty five. Iona was ousted in by Iowa State ninety
Speaker 1: four eighty one. Last game for Gale Star a J English,
Speaker 1: he scored twenty eight Stony Ruffs first n C double
Speaker 1: a game ever eight five fifty seven lost to Kentucky.
Speaker 1: Yukon won the tournament two years ago. Huskies are on
Speaker 1: another postseason run. Just took the A A C Tourney.
Speaker 1: They opened up the n C double as with the
Speaker 1: Big I can have seventy four sixty seven over in Colorado.
Speaker 1: Sixteen more games today and tonight they'll be four played
Speaker 1: in Brooklyn in Chicago the net for the night eighteen
Speaker 1: and a half. They lost the Bowl one oh two
Speaker 1: in l A. The Rangers that three won the third period,
Speaker 1: The Kings came back and J Coopitar tied the game
Speaker 1: and then wanted in overtime for three of the Islanders
Speaker 1: failed to take advantage, beating by Nashville four two. The
Speaker 1: Devil's erupted scored three times in the first and second periods.
Speaker 1: They won seven four over Minnesota. With Bloomberg NBC Sports Update,
Speaker 1: I'm John Stay John. Thanks so much, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Don't forget a modest talk of a modest storm Sunday
Speaker 1: across the Northeast, rubbed Caroline giving us perspective. Are we
Speaker 1: hope to do that as we moved through the morning
Speaker 1: as well, Michael McKee and Tom Keane, your discussion on economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: international relations. We will not talk about my n C
Speaker 1: double a bracket moments. Silence for that right now. The
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