1
00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:07,800
Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg even to Washington, d

2
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:12,760
Speaker 1: C Bloomberg to Boston Bloomberg twelve hundreds, to San Francisco

3
00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:17,079
Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine to the Country Sues Exam Channel one nineteen

4
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,759
Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aben Bloomberg

5
00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:25,279
Speaker 1: dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good Friday morning. It

6
00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,600
Speaker 1: is eight thirty on Wall Street and Michael McKee along

7
00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 1: with Tom Keane. Economic Indicators are brought to you by

8
00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,560
Speaker 1: Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to change the conversation,

9
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 1: talk about the broker dealer r I A that's ready

10
00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:40,120
Speaker 1: to listen. Call eight six two is a Commonwealth dot

11
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:44,680
Speaker 1: com to learn more no economic indicators at A thirty

12
00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,320
Speaker 1: this morning. Coming up at the top of the hour,

13
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,440
Speaker 1: Bill Dudley, the New York Fed chief, is going to

14
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,280
Speaker 1: be speaking opening remarks at a conference on banking Supervisions

15
00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,480
Speaker 1: are not sure boring policy stuff at the University of

16
00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:01,920
Speaker 1: Michigan's preliminary sentiment indicators at ten o'clock expected to rise

17
00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,160
Speaker 1: a little bit. That'll be interesting to see if that

18
00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,399
Speaker 1: indeed happens. Now, we just did have as long as

19
00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,400
Speaker 1: we did the you know, the Justin Trudeau yesterday interview,

20
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,440
Speaker 1: will give the Canada CPI numbers. UH. Inflation there cools

21
00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,679
Speaker 1: a little bit at one point four percent year on

22
00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,200
Speaker 1: year price increase in February versus the one and a

23
00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:24,000
Speaker 1: half percent forecast. So now you're up to date on

24
00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:28,840
Speaker 1: economic indicators in North America. UH. Steve Bletz is the

25
00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:33,679
Speaker 1: chief economist at I T G Investment Research. Steve, the

26
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 1: Canada numbers aren't necessarily relevant for the United States affected

27
00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:41,160
Speaker 1: as they are so much by energy, but um, we

28
00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:46,480
Speaker 1: are seeing a rise in core prices here in the US,

29
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,960
Speaker 1: and Janet Yellen during her news conference this week sort

30
00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 1: of dismissed that as no big deal transitory. Do you agree,

31
00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 1: are we going to see inflation like Canada start to

32
00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:01,120
Speaker 1: go down again? Um? Improb Blake. I mean, I think

33
00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,320
Speaker 1: when you look at the gap between where the economy

34
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,680
Speaker 1: is in trend growth and the fact that it's still

35
00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,519
Speaker 1: very very wide UM, and the fact that you have

36
00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 1: real tenure yields still trolling around the fifty basis point level,

37
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:17,920
Speaker 1: it's very hard to make the case that you have

38
00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,400
Speaker 1: a traditional kind of a inflation going on where you're

39
00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,520
Speaker 1: really getting bits of capital a lot of borrowing a

40
00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,440
Speaker 1: lot of leverage spending on either the household or the

41
00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 1: or the corporate side that would ultimately drive up inflation.

42
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,560
Speaker 1: So I suspect that she's more correct than not. She

43
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:39,040
Speaker 1: also said in a press conference, though, that, uh, these

44
00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:42,760
Speaker 1: numbers tend to swing around a lot, and they accepted

45
00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,200
Speaker 1: undershooting for a while, and they'd be more than happy

46
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 1: to accept some overshooting for a while as well. You

47
00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,080
Speaker 1: think that's what they're getting at with their plans to

48
00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,760
Speaker 1: slow down the rate of rate increases, that they are

49
00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,000
Speaker 1: going to just sort of look look other way as

50
00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,920
Speaker 1: inflation rises. I think that's that's a good big part

51
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,799
Speaker 1: of it. Yes, I would, I would agree with that,

52
00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:10,880
Speaker 1: and I think she also uh understands that. Look, they eased, right,

53
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,280
Speaker 1: and what they did was put in a trajectory of

54
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,800
Speaker 1: policy that I think is much more in line with

55
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 1: where the real economy is. Uh. You know, everyone focuses

56
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,040
Speaker 1: on the spot, right, what are they going to do

57
00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,320
Speaker 1: with the overnight funds rate? But if you go back

58
00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,920
Speaker 1: to the last year and a half two years and

59
00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,600
Speaker 1: you track the forward federal funds rates in the market,

60
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,240
Speaker 1: and then everything in the treasury curve just gets priced

61
00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,240
Speaker 1: off of that as you go out to ten years,

62
00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 1: the FED went way too high in their real rates

63
00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 1: and the economy did what it should do, what it

64
00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:51,120
Speaker 1: normally would do. The economy slowed, the equity market underperformed. Uh.

65
00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,720
Speaker 1: They reverse that in terms of their forward guidance, and

66
00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 1: I think that they have a much more realistic uh

67
00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,040
Speaker 1: projection of getting to sort of a D five basis

68
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,880
Speaker 1: points or whatever it is by the end of this year.

69
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,160
Speaker 1: We're listed in terms of what is truly neutral for

70
00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 1: the economy that we really have, Steve, I t G. Steve.

71
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,480
Speaker 1: When I when I think about getting over the weekend

72
00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,480
Speaker 1: next week, it gets me to the end of the

73
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:24,000
Speaker 1: quarter right now. Link this blot economy with then forget

74
00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,080
Speaker 1: about the headlines of Wall Street being very slow, where

75
00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,719
Speaker 1: their revenues and profits are going to be given low

76
00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,880
Speaker 1: nominal GDP, I mean, is the great mystery for the

77
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:39,440
Speaker 1: year that's a single digit world. Finally for corporations, Uh, no,

78
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,560
Speaker 1: you're right. Um. I think though that the corporate growth

79
00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,440
Speaker 1: and profits probably does pick up a little bit in

80
00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,960
Speaker 1: the second quarter. Uh. And certainly this the week of

81
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,039
Speaker 1: Donald will help a little bit in that way on

82
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,599
Speaker 1: the translation. But look of the US economy is in

83
00:04:56,640 --> 00:05:01,000
Speaker 1: the tradeable goods sector, and you can't escape the fact

84
00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,600
Speaker 1: that if the rest of the world is growing more slowly,

85
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,520
Speaker 1: it's going to natively impact growth here. It's not a

86
00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:12,840
Speaker 1: equation that the three of us grew up understanding intuitively,

87
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,919
Speaker 1: but that's where we are. And it's very difficult, you know.

88
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,840
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a certain very domestic oriented businesses. Obviously

89
00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,800
Speaker 1: that a little bit different, but it's very difficult to

90
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:27,039
Speaker 1: get strong corporate profit growth for US firms when so

91
00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:31,760
Speaker 1: much of the world is part of the U S economy.

92
00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,719
Speaker 1: In the minute we have left, give us your outlook

93
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,119
Speaker 1: after this week of central banks acting around the world.

94
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:43,279
Speaker 1: You feel better about the prospects for global growth or neutral?

95
00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:48,040
Speaker 1: Feeling worse? What? Well, I don't feel worse. Um. I

96
00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,640
Speaker 1: think that well, first of all, I think that the

97
00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,040
Speaker 1: FED finally in my from my perspective, I think the

98
00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:58,760
Speaker 1: FED finally locked into a fund orate trajectory that makes sense,

99
00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:04,359
Speaker 1: and they certainly no harm. Uh, they'll go in in June. Um.

100
00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,000
Speaker 1: The key to the US is simply holding up the

101
00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:11,720
Speaker 1: equity market because, as they wrote, the consumer sector and

102
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,240
Speaker 1: housing is most important, and we know that the continued

103
00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,400
Speaker 1: employment is one part of it, and the asset value

104
00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,479
Speaker 1: of the equity market is the other part of it.

105
00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,880
Speaker 1: So I've been at the two percent to two and

106
00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,400
Speaker 1: a half percent, more like two for the to the

107
00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,280
Speaker 1: year that housing is the driver for growth this year.

108
00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:35,520
Speaker 1: And uh, nothing's really changed to dissuade that the issues

109
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,279
Speaker 1: globally are just bigger than negative rates are gonna be

110
00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 1: able to fix. See. Let's thank you so much, greatly

111
00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,480
Speaker 1: appreciate it with I T. G UH this morning after

112
00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:49,159
Speaker 1: a really interesting week. I really can't say enough about

113
00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,920
Speaker 1: our global economic team Marty Schenker in Washington leading our

114
00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,839
Speaker 1: economic and government coverage worldwide. It has been truly a

115
00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,719
Speaker 1: worldwide week as well. Part of that current seas early

116
00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:06,160
Speaker 1: this morning and even yesterday early morning, yen with massive strength.

117
00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,960
Speaker 1: We had a one time ten handle. Right now one

118
00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,760
Speaker 1: eleven fifty two. Currencies have given up some of the

119
00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:18,040
Speaker 1: tension seen two three hours ago. Let's check in with

120
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,280
Speaker 1: Michael bar now again the latest world in national headlines,

121
00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,360
Speaker 1: Mike Tom, thank you very much. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders

122
00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:27,120
Speaker 1: says Hillary Clinton is still beatable for the Democratic presidential nomination.

123
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 1: Sanders says in several Western states and it offers him

124
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,600
Speaker 1: a chance to catch up. Clinton holds a lead of

125
00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 1: more than three committed delegates, but Sanders rejects the notion

126
00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,640
Speaker 1: that she's got it all but sewn up. European Union

127
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 1: leaders are meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmedabu Toglu in

128
00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:48,360
Speaker 1: Brussels today. He was negotiating with Turkey to accept thousands

129
00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,440
Speaker 1: of refugees in exchange for aid money and faster EU

130
00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:56,720
Speaker 1: membership consideration. The prime ministers says the refugee crisis is

131
00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,360
Speaker 1: not something to bargain over for Turkey. RAF issues nuts,

132
00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:06,720
Speaker 1: any show erna, any show value? Oh many tell you

133
00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: in velure says about it's unitan Velus. North Korea has

134
00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,200
Speaker 1: launched a missile into the sea as it continues to

135
00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:16,840
Speaker 1: condemn any ongoing annual military exercise conducted by South Korea

136
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 1: and the US. South Korean military expert says the Young

137
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,920
Speaker 1: Yang may have been testing a reentry vehicle that could

138
00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 1: house a nuclear payload. The test violated multiple U n

139
00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,840
Speaker 1: Security Council resolutions. Global News twenty four hours a day,

140
00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,960
Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists more than one

141
00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,840
Speaker 1: hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world, I'm micha Lubar,

142
00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:39,959
Speaker 1: Mike Tom, Thank you mich All time now for the

143
00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 1: Great Contino Auto Group Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with John

144
00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,080
Speaker 1: stesshen My typical first day of the n C Double

145
00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,040
Speaker 1: A Tournament to twelve Seeds beat five seeds to eleven

146
00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,720
Speaker 1: Seeds beat six is. One game went double overtime, another

147
00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,480
Speaker 1: one with a second to go, Providence on a lay

148
00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,360
Speaker 1: up top USC seventy to sixty nine. That double overtime

149
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,079
Speaker 1: game was arc and saw Little Rock, who trailed by

150
00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:05,920
Speaker 1: fourteen late regulation, ended up beating Predue eight five eight three.

151
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,480
Speaker 1: The other twelve seed. The wain was Yale, its first

152
00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 1: n C Double A games as nineteen sixty two seventy

153
00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:15,000
Speaker 1: nine seventy five over Baylor Mackay Mason thirty one points.

154
00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,839
Speaker 1: Fourth time in seven years the IVY League champ has

155
00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:22,040
Speaker 1: won it's n C Double A opener Yale versus Duke Tomorrow.

156
00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:23,959
Speaker 1: Six seed Seaton Hall, coming off to one of the

157
00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,839
Speaker 1: Big East tournaments, struggled lost again zagat eight fifty two.

158
00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,960
Speaker 1: Rough night for Private star Isaiah White had only ten

159
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,560
Speaker 1: points on four of twenty four shooting. He was oh

160
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,320
Speaker 1: for ten on three pointers. The other six seed delude

161
00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,520
Speaker 1: was Arizona meeting, by which to State sixty five to

162
00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,920
Speaker 1: fifty five. Iona was ousted in by Iowa State ninety

163
00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,080
Speaker 1: four eighty one. Last game for Gale Star a J English,

164
00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,960
Speaker 1: he scored twenty eight Stony Ruffs first n C double

165
00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,400
Speaker 1: a game ever eight five fifty seven lost to Kentucky.

166
00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,599
Speaker 1: Yukon won the tournament two years ago. Huskies are on

167
00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,480
Speaker 1: another postseason run. Just took the A A C Tourney.

168
00:09:58,480 --> 00:09:59,719
Speaker 1: They opened up the n C double as with the

169
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,760
Speaker 1: Big I can have seventy four sixty seven over in Colorado.

170
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,920
Speaker 1: Sixteen more games today and tonight they'll be four played

171
00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,240
Speaker 1: in Brooklyn in Chicago the net for the night eighteen

172
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 1: and a half. They lost the Bowl one oh two

173
00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,079
Speaker 1: in l A. The Rangers that three won the third period,

174
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 1: The Kings came back and J Coopitar tied the game

175
00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 1: and then wanted in overtime for three of the Islanders

176
00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,760
Speaker 1: failed to take advantage, beating by Nashville four two. The

177
00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,440
Speaker 1: Devil's erupted scored three times in the first and second periods.

178
00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:29,640
Speaker 1: They won seven four over Minnesota. With Bloomberg NBC Sports Update,

179
00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,840
Speaker 1: I'm John Stay John. Thanks so much, greatly appreciate it.

180
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,520
Speaker 1: Don't forget a modest talk of a modest storm Sunday

181
00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,760
Speaker 1: across the Northeast, rubbed Caroline giving us perspective. Are we

182
00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,760
Speaker 1: hope to do that as we moved through the morning

183
00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:49,840
Speaker 1: as well, Michael McKee and Tom Keane, your discussion on economics, finance, investment,

184
00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,319
Speaker 1: international relations. We will not talk about my n C

185
00:10:53,520 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 1: double a bracket moments. Silence for that right now. The

186
00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,160
Speaker 1: Sports Report was brought to by Ray Katina Auto Group.

187
00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,480
Speaker 1: Let Ray Katina show you the way to affordable luxury

188
00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,080
Speaker 1: drive ring Visit any one of their sixteen beautiful showrooms

189
00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,640
Speaker 1: in New Jersey and New York. Call one eight hundred

190
00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:12,640
Speaker 1: New Auto or go to ray Katina dot com for

191
00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:13,920
Speaker 1: special it offers